Reflections... 17th March 2016 The FED has shown its cards yesterday. They are mortally afraid to hike rates EVER. One mistake is enough is what they telegraphed yesterday, reinforcing my long standing belief that the FED is a scared puppy and wont do anything which will benefit the real economy. This action of the FED is sowing the seeds of huge volatility to engulf the entire world economy in the second half of the calendar year. Right now its clear skies. We will worry about it later. The Indian markets will certainly benefit as will all the markets around the world but be wary of volatility whenever it starts. Though we predict it will be in the latter half of the year , sometimes it can happen sooner too. The next resistance for the markets is around 7700 levels. The supports are yesterday’s lows. Banking, Metals and FMCG could be the leaders in this rally while Pharma & Tech may be stock specific. SBI, Tata Steel , Hindalco, SAIL, PNB, Bank of Baroda look promising. Inflation will now get a foothold what with Oil and Metal prices rising. Cause for Global Volatility Prices of petroleum products have been raised which will boost local inflation. Rupee most likely to strengthen and Bond Markets may be volatile. There could be a chance of RBI reducing interest rates some time soon. 1st March 2016 I wrote yesterday : “This budget is likely to focus more on rural India, ie Bharat more than India which is not a bad idea since rural India is slowly but steadily gaining in shoring up the GDP. A push is desperately needed and while it may not please Corporate India this is the right thing to do if we want to grow in double digits.” Its almost like the FM read my mind. This is one budget in the last 25 years when both the Head and the Heart are in the right place. Now its over to the people of Bharat . India Inc. may be disappointed in many areas including the promised reduction in taxes which did not happen. There were a few niggles like increase in surcharge for automobiles and some concessions taken away from R&D . However there were no new major taxes. The market men would heave a sigh of relief as the much feared proposal of increasing the holding period for claiming LTCG from 1 to 3 years. There has been an increase of STT on options which should not matter to genuine investors. Infrastructure and Housing finance Companies would be positively affected while autos and Cigarettes companies will be negatively affected. Its quite possible that the markets may be sluggish in March but there would be lots of investing opportunities especially among beaten down blue chips like HDFC twins, Reliance, L&T and Cement companies. Tech and Pharma may be the laggards. There is a good possibility that PSU Banks may get a fresh lease of life. Global Markets are weak which may add some pressure on the market, albeit for short term There could be a chance of RBI reducing interest rates some time soon. 28th July 2015 The correction in the Global markets is turning into a rout with China bearing the brunt. All the efforts by the Chinese authorities is of to no avail. The power of the markets seem to be too much even for the powerful Chinese Authorities. If they fail to arrest the slide this could be a global rout. Oil was under renewed pressure and now panic seems to have gripped the markets. However a short term bottom seems to be around the corner. Precious metals which are universally hated were in the positive zone. Our view has been consistent that one should invest when there is blood on the street and everyone is bearish. Such a situation is prevailing in the precious metals market, especially silver. The risk reward ratio is 1:3. The Indian markets opened lower on the scare of P-Notes clampdown. The Government was quick to calm down the markets that the clampdown was not imminent. However, the markets charted their own path downwards since global sentiment prevailed over the local sentiment. Results continue to pour in .Ambuja Cements reported poor results and it may show in its prices today. Similarly Tech Mahindra reported lack luster results which may put pressure on the stock. Today Maruti, HDFC and PNB are the heavyweights reporting. Maruti is expected to come out with good results but the scrip is priced to perfection. Similar is the case with HDFC. PNB would lay out the road map for the price movement for other PSU Banks. The FIIs are very active on the negative side which is not good for the markets , atleast in the short term. The domestic institutions are no match for the FIIs in such conditions. 9. Monsoons continue to be poor .July has received 13% less than normal, though the gap is narrowing to around 4-5 % for the entire season. 10 Volatility will rule the roost since it is the settlement week. 27th July 2015 The Global markets are in a correction mode now and even China is not being spared. The Greece problem, though in the background is still bubbling. Need to watch carefully. While all asset classes were under pressure on Friday, Gold was spared . While more and more global fund houses are becoming bearish on Gold and are now giving lower and lower targets from anywhere between $ 750 to $ 900 , we strongly believe that now is not the time to lose faith in the yellow metal. Just based on sentiment alone it may well surprise on the upside to $ 1200 . Results over the weekend were all horrible excepting Reliance which reported stellar numbers . Today our markets would react in line with the global markets at the open , but need to watch whether they would close weaker . If it happens then this correction may last till 8250-8300 levels on the Nifty . Today is crucial. Banks may be under pressure today since the results of Axis Bank and IOB were not upto expectations. The parliament session now increasingly looks to be a washout , which is not good for the markets since the Land Bill and the GST Bill will be stalled. 9. Monsoons continue to be lacklustre .The season’s deficit is around 6%, however the met dept expects good rainfall this week onwards. 10 There is likely to be very volatile since it’s the settlement week. 24th July 2015 Global Markets are all taking a well deserved “rest” after long rallies. The US markets continued to fall because of weak earnings. The Dow is negative for the year !!!! Our markets seem to be in a state of flux. The mainline indices are weak, but the party is on in the midcaps and small caps. This is very similar to what we have seen in the past ( 1995-1997 and 2001-2003 ). Enjoy the party till it lasts. Lupin was the biggest Nifty loser while Bajaj Auto’s results seem to have not gone well with the markets. One needs to be careful in large caps since the P/E is climbing because the E is not keeping pace with P . Midcaps such as Ashok Leyland, Petronet, Tata Comm and Jubilant Foods are likely to be active in trade today. Axis Bank and Reliance report today . They may set the tone for the week ahead. The parliament session now increasingly looks to be a washout , which is not good for the markets since the Land Bill and the GST Bill will be stalled. Monsoons continue to be lacklustre .The season’s deficit is around 7%, however the met dept expects good rainfall next week onwards. Gold seems to be under relentless pressure once again. Buying opportunity around the corner Commodity rates Gold Silver Rupee Global Markets Sorry your browser does not support IFRAME News Feed Stocks that were buzzing in trade today Adani Ports up 9% after Reserve Bank hikes FII investment limit Hindustan Zinc at new high, rises 13%; Credit Suisse ups target Auto stocks in top gear after Sep sales; Maruti hits new high Top buzzing midcap stocks to trade on October 3 Jain Irrigation up 6% on water supply project under AMRUT scheme Jubilant Life hits new high, up 10% on USFDA nod for Ruby-Fill Stock Market Views Last Texts of the Dying I wanted to have an adventure. I’m an explorer. I woke up and dragged my kids out of bed an... Posted: Mon, 03 Oct 2016 15:20:41 Source: James Altucher I would have called it “free trade is ... Our quantitative results suggest that both corrections are nonnegligible: trade-induced increases... 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