SETTINGS Natural Disasters to Impact Mexico Insurer Profitability It is too early to determine whether the effects of the disaster will have a capital or ratings impact, though Mexico's insurance sector as a whole is well positioned to face catastrophe losses owing to high quality reinsurance coverage and low retained exposures relative to capital. Credit Hotspot: Political Risk Latest: Kurdish Referendum Shows Persistent Iraqi Political Risk Fitch Learning and Times Professional Learning Announce Strategic Partnership Fitch Learning and Times Professional Learning, a division of Bennett, Coleman & Co. Ltd, are pleased to announce their strategic partnership to provide leading financial education programmes and training across India. RATING ACTION Deutsche Bank Downgraded to 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable The downgrade reflects continued pressure on Deutsche Bank's earnings, combined with prolonged implementation of its strategy. We no longer expect revenue to demonstrate any clear signs of franchise recovery this year and we expect necessary further restructuring costs to continue to erode net income. RATING ACTION UBS Group Upgraded to 'A+'; UBS AG and UBS Switzerland to 'AA-' This reflects the improvements the bank has made in its business, by reducing tail risk through tightened risk controls, which should allow it to generate sound and less volatile earnings. UBS AG's and UBS Switzerland AG's IDRs continue to be rated above their VRs to reflect the pre-placement of a sufficient buffer of junior debt and loss absorbing capacity to protect senior creditors. Global Trading and Universal Banks Reviewed The GTUBs have streamlined group structures further as a result of resolution planning, and the groups have continued to build up debt buffers that protect certain senior creditors including counterparties and depositors. HURRICANE IMPACT Puerto Rico Recovery Hurt by Storm Hurricane Maria's damage will further complicate Puerto Rico's efforts to reverse outward migration, generate sustainable economic growth and address widespread fiscal and debt crises plaguing the Commonwealth's government and public corporations. Related: (Re)Insurer Downgrade Risks Grow as 2017 Cat Losses Rise AVAILABLE UNTIL 27 OCTOBER 2017 Cyber Insurance - A Growth Opportunity with Unique Risks Cyber insurance has been a profitable business line for early market entrants and is a rapid growth segment, with global premium volume set to increase six- to eightfold within a decade. Thailand's Large Banks Well-Placed for D-SIB Requirements Thailand's large banks should all be able to comply with new capital requirements for domestic systemically important banks (D-SIB) deemed "too big to fail". The banks named as D-SIBs all have capital ratios that are well above the new minimum requirements that will be phased in by 2020. Fitch Estimates Japan Gaming Revenues in $6B-$9B Range We predict Japan could generate gross gaming revenues of between $6 billion-$9 billion depending on the number of integrated casinos approved and their physical footprint. German Vote Won't Cause Marked Economic Policy Shift Germany's 24 September 2017 election result has led to a more fragmented parliament and potentially complex and protracted negotiations, but we do not expect any marked change in the country's overall macroeconomic policy or fiscal dynamics. Related: German Election Adds Uncertainty Over Electricity Policy New Rules May Help Detect Risks in Philippine Loan Boom Recent moves to enhance oversight of property lending and project finance in the Philippines could make it easier to spot pockets of excess in these high-growth sectors. Politics Remain Key Risk to Ecuador Fiscal Consolidation We expect Ecuador's fiscal deficit to fall this year and over the medium term after peaking at 7.4% of GDP in 2016. Our baseline scenario calls for the deficit to decline to 5.9% in 2017 and then to 3.7% by 2019, with the primary balance in deficit until 2020. Mexico 2018 Budget Completes Five-Year Consolidation Plan Adherence to the programme despite the shock to oil income and sluggish growth has supported the credibility of Mexico's policy framework and the country's 'BBB+' sovereign rating. But the fiscal outlook beyond 2018 is less clear as the fiscal goals of the next administration are only likely to be announced after next year's general election. Illicit Sales Will Limit California Cannabis Revenues California's high taxes are likely to keep black market prices competitive into the long term. The state's black market will also benefit from its long history as a supplier to states where nonmedical cannabis remains illegal. Aircraft Lessors Grow Through M&A, Partnerships Industry dynamics, during this period of consolidation, remain favorable. Revenue passenger kilometers have grown 7.7% year-to-date through July 2017; the strongest level since 2011. Funding markets remain attractive to lessors, while oil prices, which remain low, have generally boosted the credit profiles of aircraft lessors' customers. RATING ACTION Russia's Outlook Revised to Positive; Affirmed at 'BBB-' Russia continues to make progress in strengthening its policy framework underpinned by a more flexible exchange rate, strong commitment to inflation targeting and a prudent fiscal strategy, reflected in the recently approved budget rule. Some Chinese LGFV Defaults Likely, Timing Uncertain The first defaults on public bonds by Chinese local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are becoming more likely, and will probably trigger a repricing of the market. However, widespread LGFV defaults remain a tail-risk, given that the authorities continue to rely on local government investment - supported by LGFVs - to hit economic growth targets, and have a broad spectrum of policy tools to limit default contagion. RATING ACTION Thyssenkrupp on Rating Watch Positive This rating action follows the signing of a memorandum of understanding between TK and Tata Steel Limited to contribute their European steel assets to a 50/50 joint venture. Request a Free Trial Ratings, data, research, analytics, and tools to power credit risk assessment. Already a client? 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