THE INDUSTRY According to "Lehmann", the real estate or loan portfolios that were often bought for real value in previous years were largely managed in silence. A sale at the nicely calculated Excel values of the wild wave of transactions was ruled out, but the historically cheap debt capital allowed investors such as banks to wait and see. Consequences were only unavoidable for some open-ended funds, as the relevant regulations required a transparent, market-driven valuation. The merchandise, which was actually intended for a quick and profitable exit and was usually highly and non-recourse financed, suddenly became slow-moving goods and the owner became an unwanted inventory holder. Good for those who had real estate expertise and good “manual” capacities. Many foreign players disappeared again, the real estate remained. Often more in the books of the banks than in the minds of their owners. Between these and their German portfolios came the chain of fund, asset and property managers, which tried to get closer to the optimistic target figures with traditional real estate management instruments. In most cases, this has only been a modest success. The problems are now increasingly on the table under pressure from auditors, covenants and funding expirations. Sie treffen zum Glück auf einen sich langsam wiederbelebenden Markt mit steigenden Transaktionsvolumina in allen Segmenten. Dabei kommen unserer Branche die krisenbedingt steigende Inflationserwartung und die zunehmende Sachwertorientierung zu Gute. Auch das internationale Kapital kehrt verstärkt an den „Blasen“-freien und noch immer relativ niedrigpreisigen deutschen Immobilienmarkt zurück. Zunächst nur core-fokussiert, geraten langsam auch wieder value-add-Objekte und opportunistische Investments ins Blickfeld. Bei den vorwiegend deutschen Privatinvestoren liegt der Schwerpunkt deutlich im wohnwirtschaftlichen Segment, wo neben der Direktanlage in Zinshäuser und geschlossenen auch erste offene Immobilienfonds reüssieren. In this respect, the housing market benefits in particular from sustained low interest rates, fear of inflation, the euro and dollar debt crisis and renewed fear of a bank crash and the associated flight into real assets. WE CONTINUE TO OBSERVE THE FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTS: 1 The banks' books have largely been cleared through domestic NPL sales and outsourcing, new business is conservative and quite healthy. However, rising interest rates are likely to suddenly change the picture for the worse. 2 Debt capital remains scarce against the background of increased equity requirements on the banks and some foreign problems and calls for private financing instruments. 3 Demographics, migration and a shortage of space in growth locations with insufficient new construction activity strengthen the regions and cities that are already strong today, while those that are already weak will continue to lose. 4 The letting successes in the office market are primarily based on optimizing moves, the absorption is low. If the economic wake is still positive in the short term, we must expect falling employment figures in the long term and the associated decline in space requirements. Falling rents meet rising renovation costs due to shorter adjustment cycles. Weak location and property qualities are the losers. 5 Einzelhandel, Logistik und der Gesundheits- bzw. Pflegemarkt profitieren zunächst noch von der Überalterung der Bevölkerung und wachsenden Haushaltszahlen, der Hotelmarkt von nachhaltigen Globalisierungseffekten. 6 Die privaten Haushalte werden mit tendenziell sinkender Kaufkraft einen wachsenden Einkommensanteil für das Wohnen aufwenden müssen, während institutionelle Kapitalsammler wie Fonds, Versicherungen, Pensionskassen und -zunehmend- Stiftungen bei weiter niedrigem Zins und ebenso niedrigen Finanzierungsausläufen Wettbewerbsvorteile im Investmentmarkt genießen Comes Real GmbH | Perfallstraße 1 | 81675 München | Tel.: 089 / 45 24 675 0 | Fax: 089 / 45 24 675 99 | info@comesreal.de | Impressum |