We are taking extended measures to ensure the safety and wellness of our employees and customers. Week Ending November 19, 2021 BEEF Market is unsettled. Total beef production for last week was up 0.7% versus the prior week and was down 1.4% compared to same time last year. Total headcount for last week was 655,000 as compared to 657,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even with prior week but down 12 lbs. from same time last year. The market has moved into a more unsettled tone with both higher and lower prices being seen from packers on multiple cuts over the past few weeks. Available labor in the plants has been a concern for some time and is something to keep an eye on as we move thru the coming weeks. Availability of Choice and higher graded product is expected to be in lighter supply over the coming weeks and is expected to put pressure on availability and upward pressure on pricing for those buyers seeking the higher graded product. Forecasts are showing that beef production for Q4 will be below Q4 of last year and this combined with the falling grading percentages are expected to keep pressure on availability of product. Live cattle prices have continued to push higher and have been trending well above the 5-year average for the past several months. CME Futures contracts point to expectations of higher priced cattle as we move into early next year. Lighter availability at the retail level has been reported and could have an impact on the market as retail buyers try to cover their needs over the coming weeks. Production will be impacted over the coming weeks with reduced holiday schedules, and this is expected to put pressure on availability of multiple cuts. Overall demand is typically lighter right ahead of Thanksgiving as consumers focus on other proteins for the holiday but seasonally improves as we move forward. Grinds- Market is unsettled. A reduction in lean beef imports and a strong demand for ground beef has helped to push the market higher over the past few weeks. Reduced production over the coming weeks typically puts pressure on availability thru the holiday season and into the new year. Loins- Market is mostly steady. This market typically sees lighter buying activity as we move thru the coming weeks as demand seasonally shifts to other cuts. Rounds- Market is mixed. Availability is mixed between the packers and there have been both higher and lower asking prices between the packers on the different cuts as this week progressed. Chucks- Market is mixed. Inventories vary between packers with both higher and lower prices being seen as we moved thru this week. This market typically sees upward pressure over the coming weeks as cooler weather sets in across the country. Ribs- Market is unsettled.Availability is mixed between packers with larger gaps being seen in asking prices.Availability of choice product is more limited due to the grading percentages.Typically, this market is unsettled for the next few weeks before seeing upward pressure again as we move further into 4th quarter.Some packers have announced that they will be limited on product thru the holiday season this year. PORK Market is mixed. Total pork production for last week was up 0.7% versus prior week and down 4.5% compared to same time last year. Total headcount for last week was 2,614,000 as compared to 2,681,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even with prior week but down 6 lbs. from same time last year. Labor issues continue to be a concern at multiple plants along with transportation challenges. Shortages and allocations are commonplace and are expected to continue as we move through 4th quarter. The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that as of September 1st there was a 4% decrease in hogs as well as a decline in weights. These hogs will come to market at the end of this year and into 1st quarter next year. The USDA also announced a reduction in breeding herd numbers, and this is expected to result in tighter hog supplies as we move thru next summer. Bellies- Market is unsettled. The belly market moved lower as we moved through this week. Fresh belly inventories are improving and this is expected to help frozen stocks over the coming weeks. Even though bellies are becoming more available there remains issues with labor and being able to process product into bacon and this is keeping product limited and on allocation with multiple suppliers. Demand at the retail level has been very good and keeping pressure on availability. Hams- Market is unsettled. The market has moved higher as we moved into this week. Availability is expected to be limited for the holidays this year. Multiple packers are already maxed out and not accepting new opportunities on holiday-based items. Limited labor concerns are expected to help keep this market more unsettled as we move closer to the holidays. Loins- Market is mixed. Available inventories vary between suppliers with boneless items still being a challenge for some packers. Butts- Market is mostly steady. This market has been moving both higher and lower over the past several weeks due to spikes in demand and mixed availability. Limited available labor is keeping availability on boneless items lighter than normal for this time of year. Exports for October were strong and were at the highest levels since April of last year. Ribs- Market is mostly steady.Labor issues remain a concern and are expected to keep the market more unsettled as we move thru the coming weeks.Cold storage inventories remain very low and with production expected to be below last year as we move into next year. CHICKEN Market is mixed. Total headcount for last week was 165,399,000 as compared to 166,758,000 for the same week last year. Average weights for last week were 6.38 lbs. as compared to 6.35 lbs. for the same week last year. Chick placements on fryers for week ending 12/18/21 are estimated at 155.5 million headcount. Placements for previous week were 155.7 million and same week last year was 165.1 million. Retail activity is reported as strong and foodservice business as moderate. Demand for WOGS and whole birds is steady. Boneless breast volume is on the rise. Market activity on wings, drums, thighs, and dark meat is trending weaker. Export activity for leg quarters and whole legs is reported as moderate to strong. Processing schedules are reduced due to labor issues and the challenges of getting new equipment. The number of birds being processed on a weekly basis remains less than last year. Supply has not yet to returned to pre-pandemic levels. Floor stocks are being reported as moderate to light. Market levels are steady on WOGS and increasing on boneless breasts. Tenders, dark meat, and wings are being pressured lower. WOGS- Market is steady. Solid demand continues to be reported from the retail deli and fast-food channels. The supply side for small birds is extremely tight compared to past years. All sizes are clearing well on a weekly basis with limited spot loads being reported. Supply is tight and the market is flat. Tenders- Market is steady to weaker. Demand continues to underperform and the market continues to correct. With menu price points at all-time highs, consumer demand is soft. Supply is becoming more available. Market levels continue to be pressured downward on jumbo sizes. Boneless Breast- Market is firmer. Retail and foodservice demand is on the rise. In this inflationary protein market, boneless breast is considered cost efficient compared to other proteins. In normal times, demand for boneless breast tends to drop off in the Fall months. This year, all sizes of boneless breast appear to be well supported. Supply has tightened. Market levels are supported and moving higher. Leg Quarters and Thighs- Market is steady to weaker. Demand for bone-in parts is steady while the call for boneless dark meat is on the decline. Export demand for leg quarters and whole legs is stable. Logistics remain a challenge in moving product to final destinations. Retail sales on drums and thighs are status quo. Dark meat demand continues to decline as we move into the cooler months. Supply is available on parts and dark meat. Market levels are trending weaker on boneless skinless thigh meat. Wings- Market is steady to weaker. Now that the consumer is paying higher prices for wings, demand continues to correct downward. Jumbo wings are available, but medium and small sizes continue to clear well. Market levels are trending lower on jumbo wings. TURKEY Market is steady to firm. Total headcount for last week was 4,655,000 as compared to 4,890,000 for the same week last year. Average weights for last week were 28.96 lbs. as compared to 27.59 lbs. for the same week last year. Whole birds and bone-in breasts remain sold-out as fresh orders are shipping for the Thanksgiving Holiday. Weekly demand for breast meat, white trim, and tenders remains strong with limited supply. Demand for drums, thighs, and thigh meat remains fair to moderate. Export demand for back half parts is moderate. Weekly production and slaughter rates are down year over year which is keeping floor stocks extremely tight on all major categories. Supply for whole birds is extremely tight, parts are limited, and white meats are tight. Whole Birds- Market is steady to firm. Fresh orders are shipping for Thanksgiving and bookings for the Christmas Holiday appear to be strong. Very few spot loads are being traded or reported. Hen sizes are short, some Tom sizes in the 20 LB and up range are available. Supply is tight and the market remains firm. Breast Meat- Market is steady to firmer. Retail deli and foodservice demand for sliced meats is strong. Therefore, fully cooked breast products are in high demand and further processors are struggling to keep pace with industry demand. Supply is tight on white meats. Frozen inventory remains low. Market is moving higher on breast meat and white meats. Wings- Market is steady to firm. Export demand for whole wings is fair and domestic activity on 2 joints is moderate to fair. Supply is limited and the market levels are being pressured. Drums and Thigh Meat- Market is steady. Drums and thighs continue to be supported by the export markets. Retail demand for ground turkey is strong and the market on thigh meat is well supported. Supply is tight on bone-in parts and boneless thigh meat is limited. Market trending flat. Drums and Thigh Meat- Market is steady to firmer.Export demand for drums and thighs is moderate and keeping back half parts clearing adequately.Thigh meat is well supported by domestic retail demand and further processor needs.Supply is tight on bone-in parts and boneless thigh meat is limited.Market trending slightly higher. SEAFOOD Gulf Shrimp- Market is steady. Overall demand has been lighter as we have moved through the past few weeks. Black Tiger Shrimp- Market is firm. Inventories are limited for a strong demand. Allocations to orders should be expected. Production costs and logistical concerns are putting pressure on the market. Delays on imports are putting additional pressure on this market. Replacement inventories have been difficult to come by for several months. White Shrimp- Market firm. The market for product of both Latin America and Asia remains firm and inventories are limited for an active demand. The lack of container availability combined with overall logistical challenges is putting a large amount of pressure on the market. Allocations to orders should be expected. Shrimp imports are trending higher but the strong demand for both retail and foodservice are keeping inventories limited. Covid concerns in Asia are putting additional pressure on that market as production in that region is seeing additional impact from the spread of the virus. North American Lobster Tails- Market is firm. Demand has been strong for several weeks and is putting pressure on very limited inventories. Seasonal plant closures combined with poor fishing conditions have caused more limited availability. Shorts and allocations to orders should be expected. The market is at record high levels. Salmon- Market is mixed. The market for farmed product is mixed between growing regions. The market for product from Europe is firm with limited inventories for an active demand. Product from other regions are seeing steady to weaker markets due to a lighter demand. The market for wild salmon is mixed between species with limited availability. The Wild Alaska season is over for the year and there are concerns on multiple salmon types. The Coho catch came in 50% below the 5-year average. The Sockeye catch looked good when you look at fish count, but the fish were very small in size this year and in lbs. it is the lowest catch since 2014. The Keta catch was larger than the prior year but was over 40% lower than 2019 and processors are seeing quality issues with some of the catch. It is possible that supplies will run short of demand as we move thru 1st quarter of 2022. Cod- Market is firm. Product out of the Pacific is seeing inventories concerns with a strong demand that has been keeping pressure on inventories for several months. Foodservice demand is very good. There are also delays with production coming back out of China putting additional pressure on the market. Flounder- Market is steady to firmer. Production issues and delays out of China are causing issues for the market. Haddock- Market is firm. Inventories are light for an active demand. Higher production costs and more limited inventories are putting pressure on the market. Shipping delays are adding additional challenges to the market. Tilapia- Market is firmer. Higher production and logistical costs are putting pressure on the market. Shipment delays on product coming out of China are expected to continue over the coming months. Buying activity has been very good and keeping pressure on already light inventories. Larger sized fish are in lighter supply due to drought conditions and farmers having to empty their ponds sooner than normal. Recent reports show that availability of smaller sized fish is going to be very limited over the coming weeks as farmers try to restock their ponds. Swai- Market is firm. Foodservice demand continues to improve across the country, and this is putting upward pressure on the market. Logistical concerns remain an issue with higher freight costs and longer lead times on both ocean freight and trucking. Inventories have become more limited with larger sizes seeing the most pressure. Farmers have been trying to turn their ponds faster to keep up with demand and this is resulting in smaller sized fish. Covid issues in Vietnam have closed multiple plants and is helping to push the market higher as availability is expected to become tighter over the coming weeks. Recent reports show that some plants are running at around 20% of capacity. DAIRY Cheese Market is unsettled. Both the CME Block and Barrel Markets trended lower this week after being up last week. Cheese demand varies by region; however, retail demand is strong and increasing as the holiday season is upon us. Production capabilities are still challenging as some cheesemakers who are fully staffed are busy, while others are still trying to navigate their way through employee shortfalls. In the Northeast, retail sales are up and foodservice demand is steady. Regional production is strong, particularly cheddar, mozzarella, and provolone cheeses. In the Midwest, cheesemakers are busy although the amount of spot milk being offered is light. Plant managers are navigating employee schedules through the holiday season as best as they can in an effort to keep production schedules full if possible. Retail and foodservice demand are up which is creating a tighter cheese market. In the West, retail demand is steady, while foodservice demand is softening. Lower prices are being attributed to declining demand and increased availability. As a whole, U.S. cheese exports have decreased, however they are 21% above prior year as drought conditions in Mexico are keeping demand high for U.S. product. Domestic cheese consumption is 3.2% above last year’s numbers. Cream Cheese supply is extremely tight across the entire supply chain as suppliers are either on allocation or, in most cases, unable to produce product. Due to a Cyber Event several weeks ago, the largest Cream Cheese provider in the U.S. was forced to shut down all of their plants for four days. This created a void that will take at least until the end of the year to stabilize. BUTTER Market is weaker. The CME Butter Market trended slightly below last week’s movement. Cream availability is matching demands in the West, while supplies are limited in the Central and East regions of the country. In the Northeast, the limited cream supply is causing a decline in production runtime. In the Central region, retail and foodservice demand have increased so sales are strong, but cream availability is getting tighter and tighter. Employee numbers have shown an improvement in the past month. In the West, shipment delays continue to be a thorn in the industry’s side, due to truck driver shortages. Both foodservice and retail demand are strong and increasing. Spot availability is limited due to demand outpacing production. EGGS Market is firmer. East Coast volume is strong. West Coast and regional business is being reported as moderate to improving. Retail demand and consumer baking is on the rise as consumers get ready for the Thanksgiving Holiday. Foodservice and QSR business is steady for this time of year. Supply is tight on both medium and large sizes. Market is trending higher on both medium sizes and on large sizes. National weekly shell egg inventory reports shell egg inventory down 9.5% over last week. SOY OIL Market is firm. 87% has been harvested versus 79% last week, however soybean yield continues to lag behind the previous month. Market remains volatile and is affecting oil shares. Canola crop continues to lag, keeping soybean supply tight. Concerns regarding unexpected export demands are looming. Weather in the U.S. has been good, however blizzards in the Northern Midwest could halt harvesting for the season in some areas. RICE Harvesting for the new crop is being completed. Total planted rice acreage is down 16% year over year. Long grain production has seen a 15% decline versus last year. Medium Grain supply is down nearly 13% year over year. This is due to the drought conditions affecting California agricultures. Export sales of rough rice and milled white and brown rice are outpacing last year’s sales. With the increase in exports sales and a smaller crop supply, firmer prices are expected. COFFEE Market is firm. Brazil was hit by two frost events causing extensive damage to coffee bean crops. Some of the extensive damage may cause farmers to replant trees which could take years to produce. It is important to note that the situation of the ground in Brazil continues to evolve. The lockdown in Vietnam because of Delta variant surge in cases has added concerns for coffee supplies. SUGAR Beet Sugar Market is firm. Despite a summer of concerns about drought in key growing areas, high levels of late season rains and favorable weather has led to a much healthier than expected crop. The November WASDE report is showing record levels of beet sugar production. Despite this, refined sugar remains tight in the U.S. due to issues with cane production. Logistical barriers continue to make it difficult to move sugar at the rate needed to provide supply relief to the US market. Cane Sugar Market is firm. As the beet crop improved the cane crop worsened as expected in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida that damaged major sections of cane growing areas in Louisiana. On top of this, there is a major logjam of raw cane imports struggling to find their way into the U.S. as ocean going vessels wait for port congestion to clear. Some refiners that rely heavily on imports are having major challenges running their refineries at the rates needed to supply their demand due to a shortage of raw sugar on site. This paired with rising costs on inbound truck freight and packaging/pallet shortages is leading to increased costs around the country for cane sugar and widening the spread between beet and cane sugar prices. CANNED GOODS (DOMESTIC) Several factors are going to come into play for the outlook on costs for domestic canned goods for the 2021 pack season. Produce costs are up over last year driven by the price of soybeans and field corn. The cost of steel is in tight supply and will have a direct impact on the cost on #10 cans. Labor is in high demand and driving costs up as well as freight is higher than last year. **Graphs represent data for the week ending November 12, 2021** Sign up to learn about new products and specials. SIGN UP Terms Of ServiceCredit Card PolicyPrivacy PolicyContact Us ©Fischer Foods of New York, Inc. All rights reserved.