Search Blog Archives Dec 26 AP New Year’s poll: Americans hopeful for a better 2017 By EMILY SWANSON and VERENA DOBNIK NEW YORK (AP) — Emotionally wrenching politics, foreign conflicts and shootings at home took a toll on Americans in 2016, but they are entering 2017 on an optimistic note, according to a new poll that found that a majority believes things are going to get better for the country next year. A look at the key findings of the Associated Press-Times Square Alliance poll: ___ SO HOW WAS 2016? Americans weren’t thrilled with the year. Only 18 percent said things for the country got better, 33 percent said things got worse, and 47 percent said it was unchanged from 2015. On a personal level, they were optimistic about 2017. Fifty-five percent said they believe things will be better for them in the coming year than in the year that just concluded. That’s a 12-point improvement from last year’s poll. Americans interviewed about the poll’s results expressed some of that optimism. “Next year will be better than this year, because people will have more jobs and they’ll have more money to spend,” said Bourema Tamboura, a Harlem resident behind the wheel of a New York car service. “I’m hoping 2017 will be better,” added Elizabeth Flynn, 62, an elementary schoolteacher from Peabody, Massachusetts. “You’ve got to be optimistic, and I’m going to try.” Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say 2016 was worse for the country than 2015. And Republicans are especially likely to feel that 2017 will be even better for them personally. University of Miami professor Benjamin Alsup said he needed only three words to explain why 2016 felt worse for him: “Trump, Trump, Trump!” Robert Greenstone, a New York commercial real estate broker, said the political discourse leading up to Republican Donald Trump’s election as president played havoc with people’s emotions. “The amount of disinformation made people suspect of everything and everyone, even their neighbors,” he said. ____ U.S. ELECTION LEADS TOP NEWS EVENTS The U.S. elections top Americans’ list of 10 top news events in 2016. Three-quarters called the presidential election and Trump’s victory very or extremely important. Sixty-three percent ranked mass shootings and bombings in Orlando, Florida, and in Belgium, Turkey, Pakistan and France as personally important news stories of the year. Fifty-one percent said they found news stories about the deaths of people at the hands of police officers, or news about ambush attacks on police in three states, to be among the year’s most important news events. Fourth on the list are 43 percent who described the spread of the Zika virus as important. The three events described by the largest percentages of Americans as not too important included the death of Muhammad Ali (50 percent), approval of recreational marijuana use in four states (43 percent), and the death of Fidel Castro (40 percent). ____ TOP MOMENTS IN POP CULTURE AND SPORTS A majority of Americans, including 7 in 10 Midwesterners, called November’s World Series win for the Chicago Cubs to end their 108-year drought memorable. Of nine other pop-culture items tested, two were called memorable by about half of Americans: the death of Prince, David Bowie and Leonard Cohen; and the Olympic victories of the U.S. women’s gymnastics team. The two least-notable events for Americans, of the 10 possible choices in the poll, were the Angelina Jolie-Brad Pitt divorce filing and the “Pokemon Go” app game phenomenon, each described by most as forgettable. ____ RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR About half of Americans plan to celebrate the New Year at home. About 2 in 10 plan to go out to a friend or family member’s home, and 1 in 10 to a bar or restaurant. About a quarter don’t plan to celebrate at all. About 6 in 10 plan to watch the Times Square ball drop, nearly all of whom will watch on TV. ___ The AP-Times Square Alliance Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online Dec. 9-11, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll is a cooperative effort between AP and the organizers of the Times Square New Year’s Eve Celebration, the Times Square Alliance and Countdown Entertainment. The Alliance is a nonprofit group that seeks to promote Times Square, and Countdown Entertainment represents the owners of One Times Square and the New Year’s Eve Ball Drop. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Nov 04 AP-GfK Poll: Americans go to polls against backdrop of an uneven economy By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy is lifting job growth and wages but not voters’ spirits. Americans are choosing a president against a backdrop of slow but steady growth that has managed to restore the economy from the crushing setback of the Great Recession. The government’s October jobs report , released Friday, showed that hiring remains solid, with 161,000 jobs added. The unemployment rate is a low 4.9 percent. Yet the recovery, the slowest since World War II, has left many Americans feeling left behind, especially those who lack high skills or education or who live outside major population centers. “The (typical) U.S. household is in a much better spot than they were eight years ago,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But it hasn’t been a great decade for anyone either. You’ve still got a big chunk of the population who feels this hasn’t worked for them.” The economy’s weak spots are a top concern for a majority of voters, who say the U.S. economy is in poor shape, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. At the same time, they say their own personal finances are good. Fifty-three percent of voters say the economy is “poor,” while 46 percent say “good,” according to the poll, conducted Oct. 20-24. Yet 65 percent say their own finances are good, versus 34 percent who rate them poor. Seventy-three percent of Hillary Clinton supporters say that economy is good; just 16 percent of Donald Trump supporters say so. And while 60 percent of whites say the economy is poor, 60 percent of nonwhites call it good. Yet whites and nonwhites are about equally likely to say their own personal finances are good. Consider 73-year-old Charles Muller, who lives outside Trenton, New Jersey, and describes his personal finances as fine. He has a pension from 26 years as a state employee and receives Social Security. But the broader economy seems fairly weak to Muller. A friend was laid off during the recession, then earned a teaching certificate, and yet still can’t find a full-time teaching job. And a friend’s daughter who recently graduated from college is stuck as an assistant manager of a dollar store. “I know a lot of people who are struggling and have been unable to find jobs commensurate with their education levels,” Muller said. He is supporting Trump, though he sees the major presidential nominees as “the two worst candidates I’ve ever been given a choice of.” Here’s a snapshot of the U.S. economy of the eve of the elections: ___ SLOWER BUT STILL-SOLID HIRING The job market has provide itself resilient. Employers have added an average of 181,000 jobs a month this year. That’s down from last year’s robust 229,000 average. But it’s nearly double the monthly pace needed to lower the unemployment rate over time. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits is near a 40-year low — evidence that layoffs are scarce and most Americans are enjoying strong job security. Blake Zalcberg, president of OFM, a furniture manufacturer in Raleigh, North Carolina, hopes to add nine employees to his 58-person company, including graphic artists, photographers and sales staff. He expects sales to grow by a third next year: “It’s a fairly robust furniture market,” he said. ___ PAY FINALLY ACCELERATING With the unemployment rate down to 4.9 percent from the a peak of 10 percent in 2009, businesses have been forced to compete harder for new employees. That’s giving workers more bargaining power when they seek new jobs and finally boosting pay. Average hourly wages grew 2.8 percent in October from a year earlier — the fastest 12-month pace in seven years. Still, historically speaking, that’s still not great. Wages typically rise at about 3.5 percent each year in a healthy economy. ___ CAUTIOUS CONSUMERS Steady hiring and modest pay increases have emboldened more Americans to buy high-cost items like new cars. Auto sales are running near last year’s record pace of more than 17 million vehicles. Yet caution still reigns: Americans’ spending grew just 2.1 percent in the July-August quarter, down from a much healthier 4.3 percent in the previous three months. ___ HOUSING HAS NEARLY RECOVERED The bursting of the last decade’s housing bubble wiped out trillions in household wealth, cost more than 5 million Americans their homes and triggered the Great Recession. Yet the home market has mostly recovered, with purchase prices just 7 percent below their 2006 peaks. Greater home values have helped many families recoup some of their lost wealth. Sales of existing homes have plateaued this year at a nearly healthy level of about 5.4 million. Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, foresees sales growth slowing slow next year. But more younger Americans are starting to buy homes, suggesting that millennials are tiring of living in apartments — or their parents’ basements— and are starting to move out. ___ BUSINESSES HOLDING BACK Companies with optimistic outlooks typically spend more on computers, machinery and other equipment to keep up with demand. Instead, in recent months the opposite has happened: Business investment in new equipment has fallen for four straight quarters. Some of that pullback occurred because oil drillers slashed spending on steel pipe and other gear in response to sharply lower oil prices. But many companies are also likely holding off on new spending until after the election, when potential economic policy changes will be clearer. ___ WEAK WORKER PRODUCTIVITY The U.S. economy has failed to grow much more efficient. Since the recession began in 2007, productivity — or output per hour of work — has grown at less than one-third the annual pace it did from 2000 through 2007. Rising productivity is vital to raising living standards, because it enables companies to raise pay without raising prices. Economists blame a range of factors for the slowdown: Americans are starting fewer new companies, which tend to be quicker to adopt new technologies. And weaker investment in roads, ports and other infrastructure has slowed shipping and commuting times. ___ MANY STILL LEFT BEHIND Millions of Americans haven’t benefited from the consistent hiring of the past several years. Middle-income jobs in manufacturing and office work were permanently lost in the recession and have been replaced by lower-paying work in retail and fast food. Many of the unemployed have given up looking for work and are no longer counted as unemployed. Nicholas Eberstadt, author of a new book, “Men Without Work,” notes that this has been a long-term phenomenon. For every unemployed man ages 25 through 54, three others are neither working nor looking for work. That ratio has doubled since 1990. ___ AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson contributed to this report. ___ Follow Chris Rugaber on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/ChrisRugaber Oct 28 AP-GfK Poll: Most believe allegations about Trump and women By LAURIE KELLMAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump’s behavior has long grated on Carolyn Miller, but the allegations he sexually assaulted women was one factor that helped her decide in the last week to cast her ballot for Hillary Clinton. “I don’t think she’s a bad person. Trump, I think, is a bad person,” the 70-year-old Fort Myers, Florida, resident said. As for Trump’s accusers, Miller added, “I believe them.” And she said her vote for Clinton is “a default.” Miller is among the more than 7 in 10 Americans who say in a new Associated Press-GfK poll that they believe the women who say the Republican presidential candidate kissed or groped them without their consent, a verdict that may have turned off enough voters, including some Republicans, to add to his challenges in the presidential race. Forty-two percent of Republican voters and 35 percent of Trump’s own supporters think the accusations are probably true. Men and women are about equally likely to think so. While the poll suggests the wave of allegations about Trump’s treatment of women may blunt the impact of voters’ concerns about Clinton, it was taken before Friday’s news that the FBI will investigate whether there is classified information in newly uncovered emails related to its probe of her private server. Those emails were not from her server, according to a U.S. official who was not authorized to discuss details publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. Before the development, the poll found that about half of voters say her use of the private server while she was secretary of state makes them less likely to vote for her. But they were more likely to say that Trump’s comments about women bother them a lot than to say the same about Clinton’s email server, 51 percent to 43 percent. Since September, Clinton seems to have consolidated her support within her own party and drawn undecided voters such as Miller to her campaign, or at least pushed them away from Trump. The billionaire’s recent trouble with women seems to be one factor preventing him from doing the same. He feuded with former Miss Universe Alicia Machado after Clinton noted he’d called her “Miss Piggy” for gaining weight while she wore the crown. Days later, a 2005 recording surfaced in which Trump can be heard describing himself sexually assaulting women in a conversation with Billy Bush, then the host of “Access Hollywood.” Several women have since publicly accused Trump of groping and kissing them without permission, including a People magazine reporter who said Trump attacked her when his wife, Melania, was out of the room. Trump called his remarks on the video “locker room talk,” dismissed the accusations as “fiction” and said of several accusers that they aren’t attractive enough to merit his attention. Asked Thursday on Fox News Channel’s “The O’Reilly Factor” whether he thinks he would be ahead were it not for the “Access Hollywood” video, Trump replied, “I just don’t know. I think it was very negative.” A majority of voters, 52 percent, say allegations about the way Trump treats women make them less likely to vote for him, including a fifth of Republican likely voters. And within that group, only about a third say they will vote for him, with about a third supporting Clinton and the remainder supporting third party candidates. That may help explain why just 79 percent of Republican in the poll said they’re supporting Trump compared with 90 percent of Democrats supporting Clinton. Trump needs to close that gap to have any shot at victory. Trump has tried to equate the accusations against him with charges of infidelity and sexual assault leveled for years against his rival’s husband, former President Bill Clinton. Trump has paraded the former president’s accusers before the cameras and accused Hillary Clinton of undermining her husband’s accusers. The poll shows a majority of voters don’t buy Trump’s attempt at equivalence. Six in 10 say the allegations against the Clintons have no impact on their vote. That’s despite the fact that 63 percent think Hillary Clinton has probably threatened or undermined women who have accused her husband of sexual misconduct. “The vote will be about Hillary Clinton, not her husband,” said Ryan Otteson, 33, of Salt Lake City, who’s voting for a third-party candidate, conservative independent Evan McMullin. Valori Waggoner, a 26-year-old from Belton, Texas, said she believes Hillary Clinton probably did intimidate her husband’s accusers, but she said it makes no difference to how Waggoner is voting. Waggoner was not going to vote for Clinton anyway, because as a doctor, Waggoner said she sees firsthand the inefficiency of the national health care plan that Clinton supports. But the alleged wrongdoing by Trump made her less likely to vote for the Republican. Instead, she’s backing Libertarian Gary Johnson. The degree of alleged wrongdoing by the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, Waggoner said, “are not equal.” Most likely voters in the poll say they think Trump has little to no respect for women, with female voters especially likely to say he has none at all. Clinton leads female likely voters by a 22 point margin in the poll, and even has a slight 5 point lead among men. In September’s AP-GfK poll, Clinton led women by a 17 point margin and trailed slightly by 6 points among men. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 27 AP-GfK poll: Most Trump supporters doubt election legitimacy By Jonathan Lemire and Emily Swanson CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Donald Trump’s dubious claims the presidential election is “rigged” have taken root among most of his supporters, who say they will have serious doubts about the legitimacy of the election’s outcome if Hillary Clinton wins, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Just 35 percent of Trump’s supporters say they will most likely accept the results of the election as legitimate if Clinton wins, while 64 percent say they’re more likely to have serious doubts about the accuracy of the vote count if the Republican nominee is not the victor. “Of course I believe it’s rigged, and of course I won’t accept the results,” said Mike Cannilla, 53, a Trump supporter from the New York borough of Staten Island. “It’s from the top: Obama is trying to take over the country, he’s covering up all of Hillary’s crimes and he’s controlling the media trying to make Trump lose.” “Our only chance on Nov. 9 is if the military develops a conscience and takes matters into its own hands,” Cannilla said. By contrast, 69 percent of Clinton’s supporters say they’ll accept the outcome if Trump wins. Only 30 percent of the Democratic nominee’s backers express a reluctance to accept the results if the former secretary of state loses on Election Day. Overall, 77 percent of likely voters say they’ll accept the legitimacy of the results if Trump wins, while 70 percent say the same of a Clinton win. In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump has made doubts about the integrity of the U.S. election system a cornerstone of his closing argument. Asked directly at the final presidential debate if he would accept the election results, Trump refused, saying: “I will keep you in suspense.” That extraordinary statement, with its potential to challenge the peaceful transition of power that is a hallmark of the American democracy, did little to harm him with his base of supporters. The poll found that 44 percent of all likely voters say Trump’s stance makes them less likely to support him, but the vast majority of his supporters say it doesn’t make a difference. “He should fight it all the way,” said George Smith, 51, a Trump supporter from Roswell, Georgia. “Spend weeks in court if he has to. He can’t let it be taken from him. That’s his right.” Trump has also repeated inaccurate claims that vote fraud is a widespread problem, and the poll finds that most of Trump’s supporters share that concern. Fifty-six percent think there’s a great deal of voter fraud, 36 percent believe there is some, and 6 percent say there’s hardly any. Most Clinton supporters, 64 percent, think there’s hardly any voter fraud. Overall, just 27 percent of likely voters think there’s a great deal of fraud. A third of voters overall believe there is at least some, while 38 percent say there is hardly any. While there have been isolated cases of voter fraud in the U.S., there is no evidence of it being a widespread problem. In one study, a Loyola Law School professor found 31 instances involving allegations of voter impersonation out of 1 billion votes cast in U.S. elections between 2000 and 2014. Beyond allegations of fraud, 40 percent of Trump supporters say they have little to no confidence that votes in the election will be counted accurately. Another 34 percent say they have only a moderate amount of confidence, and just 24 percent say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in the vote count. Among Clinton supporters, 79 percent say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in the vote count’s accuracy. Many believe Trump should voice support for the electoral system even in defeat. “Be an adult. Accept the results,” said Shavone Danzy-Kinloch, 37, a Clinton supporter from Farmingville, New York. “If the shoe was on the other foot, he’d expect Hillary to do the same.” Trump’s supporters are also more likely than others to say they are concerned about hackers interfering with the election. Forty-six percent of them are extremely or very concerned and 37 percent somewhat concerned. Overall, 32 percent of voters say they’re extremely to very concerned and 39 percent somewhat concerned. Among Clinton supporters, 60 percent are at least somewhat concerned. Although the poll shows many Trump supporters would have doubts about a Clinton win, the poll shows relatively little acute concern that claims of inaccuracy and voter fraud could prevent Americans overall from accepting the results. Just 30 percent of likely voters are extremely or very concerned about that, while another 40 percent are somewhat concerned. Twenty-nine percent say they’re not very or not at all concerned. “If she wins, we’re all going to have live with it,” said Daniel Ricco, 76, a Trump supporter from Milford, Connecticut. “It won’t be good for the country, but there’s nothing we can do.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Swanson reported from Washington. ___ Follow Jonathan Lemire and AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/JonLemire and http://twitter.com/El_Swan Oct 26 AP-GfK Poll: Clinton appears on cusp of commanding victory By JULIE PACE and EMILY SWANSON NEW YORK (AP) — Hillary Clinton appears on the cusp of a potentially commanding victory over Donald Trump, fueled by solid Democratic turnout in early voting, massive operational advantages and increasing enthusiasm among her supporters. A new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds the Democratic nominee has grabbed significant advantages over her Republican rival with just 12 days left before Election Day. Among them: consolidating the support of her party and even winning some Republicans. “I’m going to pick Hillary at the top and pick Republican straight down the line,” said poll respondent William Goldstein, a 71-year-old from Long Island, New York, who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. “I can’t vote for Trump.” Overall, the poll shows Clinton leading Trump nationally by a staggering 14 percentage points among likely voters, 51-37. While that is one of her largest margins among recent national surveys, most show the former secretary of state with a substantial national lead over the billionaire businessman. The AP-GfK poll finds that Clinton has secured the support of 90 percent of likely Democratic voters, and also has the backing of 15 percent of more moderate Republicans. Just 79 percent of all Republicans surveyed say they are voting for their party’s nominee. With voting already underway in 37 states, Trump’s opportunities to overtake Clinton are quickly evaporating — and voters appear to know it. The AP-GfK poll found that 74 percent of likely voters believe Clinton will win, up from 63 percent in September. Troubles with President Barack Obama’s signature health care law have given Trump a late opening to warn voters against putting another Democrat in the White House. But even Republicans question whether the rising cost of insurance premiums is enough to overcome the damage the businessman has done to his standing with women and minorities. “Donald Trump has spent his entire campaign running against the groups he needs to expand his coalition,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who advised Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s failed presidential campaign. Ayres called Trump’s campaign “strategically mindless.” Even if Clinton’s support plummets in the contest’s closing days, or she’s unable to motivate strong turnout in her favor, it’s not clear that Trump could marshal the resources to take advantage and collect enough states to win the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the White House. Clinton’s team has overwhelmed Trump’s campaign in its effort to turn out voters. An Associated Press review of campaign finance filings finds that her campaign, the Democratic National Committee and Democratic parties in 12 states have more than three times as many paid employees as Trump’s campaign and the main Republican organizations supporting him. Clinton and Democrats had about 4,900 people on payroll in September, while Trump and Republicans had about 1,500. Both sides benefit from legions of volunteers knocking on doors and making phone calls to voters, as well as outside forces such as unions and super PACs pitching in on voter turnout operations. But key Republican groups such as the ones funded by the conservative billionaire Koch brothers are sitting out the presidential race because of their distaste for Trump, further extending Clinton’s likely advantage at getting out the vote. The strength of the Democratic turnout effort appears to be paying dividends in states where voting is underway. Nationwide, more than 12 million voters have already cast ballots, according to data compiled by the AP, a pace far quicker than 2012. In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, Democrats lead Republicans in early ballots, 47 percent to 29 percent. The Democrats hold an advantage even though turnout among blacks, a crucial voting bloc for Clinton in the state, is down compared to this point in 2012. Strategists in both parties attribute the lower black turnout in part to an early reduction in polling stations, though more sites are to open in the days leading up to Nov. 8. In Florida, a perennial battleground, Democrats have drawn even to Republicans in votes cast, reaching that milestone faster than in 2012. Traditionally, Republicans do well initially with mail-in ballots. But Democrats were able to keep it close, putting Clinton in position to run up the score during in-person voting. Clinton also appears to hold an edge in Nevada and Colorado based on early returns. David Flaherty, a Republican pollster based in Colorado, said the data signal “a Democrat wave in the making.” Buoyed by support from white voters, Trump looks strong in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia, a Republican state where Clinton is trying to make inroads. But wins in those states would still leave him well short of the required 270 Electoral College votes. Trump’s top advisers have conceded in recent days the businessman is trailing Clinton. But they point to his large rallies and enthusiastic supporters as an indication he could be poised for an upset. Clinton draws smaller crowds to her events and has been perceived by some voters a lesser of two evils. “We have a couple of different paths to get to 270 and we’re actively pursuing them,” Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager, told MSNBC on Monday. The AP-GfK poll suggests Clinton’s advantage is about more than just voter dislike for Trump. Clinton supporters are more likely than his backers to list their candidate’s leadership, qualifications for the presidency and positions on issues as major factors in their support. Although voters are still more likely to have an unfavorable than a favorable view of Clinton, her ratings have improved slightly in the past month. Forty-six percent of likely voters now say they have a favorable view of the former secretary of state, up from 42 percent in September. Just 34 percent of all likely voters have a favorable view of Trump. Trump’s unpopularity has opened surprising opportunities for Clinton as the White House race barrels toward its finish. Her campaign is actively competing for Arizona, a state that has voted for the Democrat in only one presidential race since 1952, and she is also spending money in Georgia, a reliably Republican state over the past two decades. Both states have been on Democrats’ wish lists in recent years given their increasingly favorable demographics, though the party had little expectation they might flip this year. Hispanics are a growing share of the Arizona electorate, while Georgia is on its way to becoming a majority-minority state. The real electoral map surprise this year is Utah, one of the most conservative states in the country. Utah’s heavily Mormon population has turned its back on Trump, providing an opening for third-party candidate and Utah native Evan McMullin to carry the state. Stripping Trump of six Electoral College votes Republicans have never had to worry about would further narrow his already slim path to victory. With so much appearing to lean in their favor heading into Election Day, the Clinton campaign’s biggest concern is that some supporters take victory for granted and don’t show up to vote. “Donald Trump said he could still win, and he could if our people get complacent,” Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri said. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Associated Press writers Hope Yen, Nicholas Riccardi, Thomas Beaumont and Chad Day contributed to this report. ___ Follow Julie Pace and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jpaceDC and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Oct 01 AP-GfK poll: Third party backers a wild card in 2016 race By EMILY SWANSON and JONATHAN LEMIRE WASHINGTON (AP) — Most people who are drawn to third party candidates in the presidential election aren’t sold on their choice, making these voters wild cards in an already unpredictable contest. A shift in their support toward either of the major party nominees — away from Libertarian Gary Johnson, Jill Stein of the Green Party or another third party candidate — could drastically change the shape of the race. A recent Associated Press-GfK poll found that nearly 7 in 10 third-party supporters say they could still change their minds. They are about evenly split between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump if forced to choose between just those two. Nearly one-third refused to pick or said they would just not vote if it came down to that. Margaret Bonnem, a stay-at-home mother in Colliersville, Tennessee, had previously supported Stein. But now she says she’ll vote for Clinton because she realizes that “a third party candidate can’t really do anything but pull votes away” from the major parties. “I can’t vote for Trump, and I don’t want him to benefit from me voting for someone else,” said Bonnem, 54. “So I’ll end up voting for someone I don’t fully trust.” The poll, conducted before last Monday night’s first presidential debate, also shows signs that many third party backers would rather vote for no one than throw their support either to Trump or Clinton. Among likely voters in the AP-GfK poll saying they’ll support a third party candidate, 7 in 10 say they have an unfavorable opinion of both the Democratic and Republican nominees. Altogether, the poll found 9 percent of likely voters supported Johnson, 2 percent Stein, and 2 percent “another candidate.” Among third-party supporters, 72 percent say Clinton’s not at all honest, and 64 percent say she’s at least somewhat corrupt. Sixty-eight percent say Trump is not at all compassionate and 59 percent think he’s at least somewhat racist. Overall, 8 in 10 say they have an unfavorable opinion of each of the major party nominees. For 6 in 10, that opinion is very unfavorable. Patrick Cannon, 63, from Minneapolis, says he’ll vote for Johnson though he knows Johnson can’t win. “I guess my vote is in the nature of a protest vote,” said Cannon, who retired from the graphics industry. “I just can’t bring myself to vote for the other two.” These third party voters don’t fit into easy political boxes. They’re disproportionately young: 26 percent of them are under age 30, compared with just 15 percent of likely voters overall. More than half of them self-identify as independents, though when asked which way they lean, they’re about evenly split between the two parties. They’re deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country. Eight-two percent say the country is headed in the wrong direction, far closer to the percentage for Trump supporters (94 percent) than Clinton supporters (45 percent). Six in 10 disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. Despite their dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, 74 percent of them say they would be afraid if Trump is elected president, compared with 56 percent who say that of Clinton. They’re also slightly more likely to say they would be angry about electing Trump than put Clinton in the White House, 54 percent to 45 percent. Whether the Democrat or the Republican can win them over lends potential volatility to the race. In the AP-GfK poll, 69 percent of them said they could still change their minds about whom to support, while more than 85 percent of both Trump and Clinton supporters said their minds were made up. Jim Stab, a retired captain in the Navy, is planning to vote for Johnson but says his “leaning is weak.” “Not voting is a waste,” said Staub, 75, of Laguna Niguel, California. “If I won’t for Johnson, I will for one of them,” meaning Clinton or Trump. On average, surveys have suggested Clinton may perform slightly better when voters are forced to choose between only Trump and her. But first, they’d need to actually vote. And there are reasons to think many of them wouldn’t come out to hold their noses for their least-disliked candidate. While 6 in 10 Trump and Clinton supporters in the AP-GfK poll say they always vote, just 45 percent of third party voters say the same. In fact, more than a quarter straight up say they would not vote if they had to choose between Trump and Clinton. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,694 adults, including 160 likely voters who said they’ll vote for a third party candidate, was conducted online Sept. 15-19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, and for third party voters is plus or minus 8.2 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Lemire reported from New York. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at http://twitter.com/El_Swan and Jonathan Lemire at http://twitter.com/JonLemire Sep 27 AP-GfK poll: Voters more confident in Trump’s health By LAURAN NEERGAARD and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — The “stamina,” the “look”: A new poll suggests voters are buying in to Donald Trump’s insinuations about Hillary Clinton’s health. They’re ignoring the medical reports. Voters — especially men — have more confidence that Trump is healthy enough for the presidency than Clinton, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll. It’s a disconnect considering Clinton has released more medical information than Trump, and that outside doctors who’ve looked at the available data say both candidates seem fine. But it shows the political points Trump scored after the Democratic nominee’s much-publicized mild case of pneumonia. Another gender divide: Nearly half of women but just 4 in 10 men think Clinton’s health is getting too much attention, found the poll, which was taken before the presidential candidates’ debate on Monday. “Everybody gets sick,” said Sherri Smart, 56, of New York. She said she hasn’t decided who to vote for but wishes the candidates would discuss issues instead of sniping about who’s most vigorous. “What’s important is, what are you going to do for me?” Smart said. The AP-GfK poll found 51 percent of voters are very or extremely confident that Trump is healthy enough to be president. In contrast, just over a third of voters — 36 percent — had the same confidence in Clinton’s health. Men are more likely to question Clinton’s physical fitness for the job, with 45 percent saying they’re only slightly or not at all confident compared to 34 percent of women. Men and women are about equally likely to express confidence in Trump’s health. More Democrats are confident of Trump’s health than Republicans are of Clinton’s. Health is a legitimate issue as the nation is poised to elect one of its oldest presidents. Trump, 70, for months held off disclosing much about his own fitness while stoking questions about a woman in the White House with his assertion, repeated on national TV Monday, that Clinton lacks the look and stamina for the job. (As for his apparent sniffles during Monday’s debate, he blamed a bad microphone.) “Stamina is a code word for maybe not physically up to the job,” said New York University bioethicist Arthur Caplan, who has called for an independent panel to certify the health of presidential candidates. “There’s something of a bias about men versus women that subtly Trump has played to, that men are more fit, tough enough to do the job.” Clinton, 68, last year released more detail about her own health history only to buy trouble earlier this month by refusing to take a sick day until a public stumble forced her to reveal the pneumonia diagnosis. But Monday she rebutted Trump’s talk of stamina by wondering if he could match her grueling schedule as a secretary of state — traveling to 112 countries, negotiating peace deals, spending 11 hours testifying before a congressional committee. What exactly do we know about their health? Neither has released their actual medical records, just a summary from their personal physicians with no way to know if anything important was left out. Yet another disconnect: The AP-GfK poll found nearly 4 in 10 voters don’t consider such a release important, and another 2 in 10 say it’s only moderately important. Trump’s gastroenterologist in December released a four-paragraph letter saying the GOP nominee would be “the healthiest individual ever elected.” Earlier this month, Trump took to “The Dr. Oz Show” to say he felt great, while releasing a bit more detail, such as his cholesterol levels and cancer screenings. Bottom line: Trump takes a cholesterol-lowering statin medication and a baby aspirin, has some mild plaque in his arteries and is overweight — but was declared generally in good health. Last summer, Clinton’s internist released a two-page letter detailing her family history, prior exams including lab test results, and some prior ailments that have healed — including a 2012 concussion and blood clot Clinton suffered after becoming dehydrated from a stomach virus and fainting. This month, a second letter outlined the mild pneumonia and revealed some updated check-up results. Bottom line: Clinton takes a blood thinner as a precaution given a history of blood clots, as well as a thyroid medication and allergy relievers — but also was declared generally in good health. Some doctors say just watching how the candidates handle a physically demanding campaign trail and the cognitive finesse needed to debate can give voters a good idea of health. But while the public may not pay attention to cholesterol tests and EKGs, it was hard to miss that image of Clinton stumbling. “The public is feeding off the impressions they’ve received, but that’s not borne out by the letters of health,” said Dr. Howard Selinger, chair of family medicine at Quinnipiac University. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,694 adults, including 1,476 registered voters, was conducted online Sept. 15-19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, and for registered voters is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Sep 25 AP-GfK poll shows voter distaste for Putin-style leadership By EMILY SWANSON and VIVIAN SALAMA WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump has called Russian President Vladimir Putin “a leader — unlike what we have in this country.” But most Americans don’t agree with Trump’s assessment of Putin’s leadership skills, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. Only 24 percent of registered voters say Putin has leadership qualities that would be good for an American president to share, while 71 percent say he does not. In fact, a majority, 56 percent, said they have an unfavorable view of Putin, while only 10 percent said they view the Russian leader favorably. Voters were split on whether Trump would be too close to Putin, with 42 percent saying they think Trump would be too close, and 41 percent saying his approach would be about right. Fourteen percent think he would not be close enough. By comparison, most voters (53 percent) think Democrat Hillary Clinton’s relationship with Putin would be about right, while 11 percent think she would be too close and 32 percent think she would not be close enough. The relationship between the Republican nominee and the Russian strongman began taking on new life when Putin praised Trump last December as “bright and talented” and “the absolute leader of the presidential race.” The billionaire businessman hailed Putin’s regard for him as a “great honor,” brushing off widespread allegations that the Russian president has ordered the killing of political dissidents and journalists. “Our country does plenty of killing also,” Trump told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” in December. Four in 10 Trump supporters and only 1 in 10 Hillary Clinton supporters say Putin has leadership qualities that would be good for an American president to have. Still, even among Trump’s supporters, just 16 percent have a favorable opinion of Putin. Only 5 percent of Clinton’s supporters do. Marissa Garth, a 28-year-old stay-at-home mom from Smithfield, Utah, said she plans to vote for Trump this November because he exhibits the qualities of a strong leader — not to be compared with Putin. “I think (Putin) is a strong leader for his country,” she said. “But at the same time I don’t think he necessarily has the qualities that I would want as a president.” In fact, the poll finds that men are more likely than women to say that Putin has leadership qualities that would be good in an American president, 28 percent to 19 percent. Among Clinton’s supporters, 69 percent say Trump would be too close to Putin. Forty-nine percent of those supporting another candidate share that view, but only 8 percent of Trump supporters say their candidate would be too close to Putin. Eighty percent of Trump supporters say his approach would be about right. Among conservatives, 20 percent say Trump would be too close to Putin. There is nothing 54-year old Gary Sellers, of Homewood, Illinois, likes about Putin — or Trump. He called Putin a “dictator,” adding, “there are no qualities of his that I wish that an American president would have.” A lukewarm Clinton supporter, he’s concerned that Trump shares Putin’s extreme views of governing. “I feel he has a dictatorial approach toward being president of the United States,” Sellers said of Trump. Forty-seven percent of voters say they approve and 52 percent disapprove of President Barack Obama’s handling of the U.S. relationship with Russia. Voters are divided over whether the next president should take a tougher approach to Putin (42 percent) or whether the current approach is about right (39 percent). Just 16 percent think the next president should take a friendlier approach. Just under half of voters (48 percent) say the U.S. relationship with Russia is a very or extremely important issue, ranking it low on Americans’ list of priorities, far below issues like the economy (92 percent), the threat posed by the Islamic State group (70 percent), the U.S. role in world affairs more generally (68 percent) and immigration (60 percent). There’s a generational divide over Russia. Two-thirds of voters age 65 and over and more than half of those between 50 and 64 call the U.S. relationship with Russia very or extremely important, while only 4 in 10 30-49 year olds and only a third of those under 30 say the same. Generally speaking, voters are more likely to say they trust Clinton than Trump on negotiating with Russia, 40 percent to 33 percent. Nineteen percent say they trust neither and 7 percent trust both equally. John Eppenger, 68, a retiree in Fairfield, Ala., said that when it comes to dealing with Russia, Clinton would “do a much better job than Trump. She’s not perfect, she’s not ideal, but she’s better.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,694 adults, including 1,476 registered voters, was conducted online Sept. 15-19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, and for registered voters is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Sep 23 AP-GfK Poll: Majority of Americans fear Trump presidency By JONATHAN LEMIRE and EMILY SWANSON NEW YORK (AP) — More than half the country fears a Trump presidency. And only about a third of Americans believe he is at least somewhat qualified to serve in the White House. In the final sprint to Election Day, a new Associated Press-GfK poll underscores those daunting roadblocks for Donald Trump as he tries to overtake Hillary Clinton. Moreover, most voters oppose the hard-line approach to immigration that is a centerpiece of the billionaire businessman’s campaign. They are more likely to trust Clinton to handle a variety of issues facing the country, and Trump has no advantage on the national security topics also at the forefront of his bid. Trump undoubtedly has a passionate base of support, seen clearly among the thousands of backers who fill the stands at his signature rallies. But most people don’t share that fervor. Only 29 percent of registered voters would be excited and just 24 percent would be proud should Trump prevail in November. Only one in four voters find him even somewhat civil or compassionate, and just a third say he’s not at all racist. “We as Americans should be embarrassed about Donald Trump,” said Michael DeLuise, 66, a retired university vice president and registered Republican who lives in Eugene, Oregon. “We as Americans have always been able to look at the wacky leaders of other countries and say ‘Phew, that’s not us.’ We couldn’t if Trump wins. It’s like putting P.T. Barnum in charge. And it’s getting dangerous.” To be sure, the nation is sour on Clinton, too. Only 39 percent of voters have a favorable view of the Democratic nominee, compared to the 56 percent who view her unfavorably. Less than a third say they would be excited or proud should she move into the White House. “I think she’s an extremely dishonest person and have extreme disdain for her and her husband,” said one registered Republican, Denise Pettitte, 36, from Watertown, Wisconsin. “I think it would be wonderful to elect a woman, but a different woman.” But as poorly as voters may view Clinton, they think even less of Trump. Forty-four percent say they would be afraid if Clinton, the former secretary of state, is elected, far less than say the same of Trump. He’s viewed more unfavorably than favorably by a 61 percent to 34 percent margin, and more say their unfavorable opinion of the New Yorker is a strong one than say the same of Clinton, 50 percent to 44 percent. That deep distain for both candidates prompts three-quarters of voters to say that a big reason they’ll be casting their ballot is to stop someone, rather than elect someone. “It’s not really a vote for her as it’s a vote against Trump,” said Mark Corbin, 59, a business administrator and registered Democrat from Media, Pennsylvania. Roughly half of voters see Clinton at least somewhat qualified, while just 30 percent say Trump is. Even when it comes to what may be Clinton’s greatest weakness, the perception that she is dishonest, Trump fails to perform much better: 71 percent say she’s only slightly or not at all honest, while 66 percent say the same of Trump. Forty-nine percent say Clinton is at least somewhat corrupt, but 43 percent say that of Trump. “Whatever her problems are, they don’t even come close to him,” said JoAnn Dinkelman, 66, a Republican from Rancho Cucamonga, California, who will cross party lines and vote for Clinton. “Everything that comes out of his mouth that is fact-checked turns out to be a lie.” Trump finds no respite with voters when it comes to what he vows to do as president, either. Nearly 6 in 10 oppose his promise to build a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico, and only 21 percent of his supporters and 9 percent of registered voters overall are very confident he would succeed at fulfilling his promise that Mexico would pay for the construction. Six in 10 believe there should be a way for immigrants living in the country illegally to become U.S. citizens — a view that Trump opposes. “The wall isn’t the answer. It’s not feasible and Mexico won’t pay for it,” said Timothy Seitz, 26, a graduate student at the Ohio State University and a Republican. “We should be leaders. We shouldn’t cower from others and cut ourselves off in the world.” Beyond immigration, voters say they trust Clinton over Trump by wide margins when it comes to health care, race relations and negotiations with Russia. She also narrowly tops Trump when it comes to filling Supreme Court vacancies, as well as another of the billionaire’s signature issues: handling international trade. Trump is narrowly favored on creating jobs, 39 percent to 35 percent, while in general, voters are about equally split on which candidate would better handle the economy. Voters are slightly more likely to trust Trump than Clinton on handling gun laws, 39 percent to 35 percent. Voters are closely split on which candidate would better handle protecting the country and evenly divided on which would better handle the threat posed by the Islamic State group. And Americans are much more likely to say they trust Clinton than Trump to do a better job handling the U.S. image abroad. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,694 adults, including 1,476 registered voters, was conducted online Sept. 15-19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, and for registered voters plus or minus 2.7 points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Sep 22 Deplorable? Trump more so than Clinton, AP-GfK poll finds By LISA LERER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — It was supposed to be her “47 percent” moment. When Hillary Clinton said that half of Donald Trump’s supporters belonged in a “basket of deplorables,” Republicans thought they just might have found her campaign-crushing-blunder. The gaffe, they hoped, was a way to cement an image as an out-of-touch snob, just as Democrats did four years ago to Mitt Romney after he said “47 percent” of voters backed President Barack Obama because they were “dependent on government.” But a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that Clinton’s stumble didn’t have quite the impact that Trump and his supporters wanted. Instead, it’s Trump who’s viewed as most disconnected and disrespectful. Sixty percent of registered voters say he does not respect “ordinary Americans,” according to the poll. That’s far more than the 48 percent who say the same about Clinton. Trump supporters had begun showing up at his rallies with shirts and signs riffing on the word “deplorable.” The hashtag #BasketofDeplorables began trending on Twitter, as the Republican nominee’s backers demanded an apology. At a rally last week in Florida, Trump walked out to a song from the play Les Miserables. “Welcome to all you deplorables!” he shouted, standing in front of a backdrop that read, “Les Deplorables.” But the poll findings underscore how Trump’s no-holds-barred approach may be wearing on the country. Despite efforts by his campaign to keep him on message, his image as an outspoken firebrand who brazenly skips past societal norms appears deeply ingrained among voters. Nearly three in four do not view him as even somewhat civil or compassionate. Half say he’s at least somewhat racist. Those numbers are largely unchanged from the last time the AP-GfK survey was conducted in July. Even among those saying they’ll most likely vote for Trump, 40 percent say they think the word “compassionate” doesn’t describe him well. “He was always a decent guy even with his marriages and everything,” said David Singer, a retiree from Simsbury, Connecticut. “But when he got on the debate stage something happened to him. The insults just got me crazy. I couldn’t believe what he was telling people.” Trump is viewed unfavorably by 61 percent of registered voters, and Clinton by 56 percent. But despite her similarly high unfavorability rating, voters do not hold the same negative views about her as they do of Trump. Only 21 percent believe she’s very or somewhat racist. Half say she’s at least somewhat civil and 42 percent view her as compassionate. Democrats see Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric as a major campaign asset — for them. Clinton’s campaign spent much of the summer casting Trump as a dangerous force in American society, one that consorts with racists, anti-Semites and white supremacists. “Our most cherished values are at stake,” Clinton told students at Temple University on Monday. “We have to stand up to this hate. We cannot let it go on.” It’s a strategy lifted right out of the party’s 2012 playbook. Four years ago, Democrats seized on a leaked video showing Romney at a private fundraiser in Florida dismissing “47 percent” of voters who pay no income tax, people who believe “the government has a responsibility to care for them” and would automatically vote for Obama. The comment helped Democrats paint the GOP nominee as a heartless plutocrat only concerned about protecting the wealthy, a message they’d been pushing for months through a barrage of battleground state ads. This year, Clinton’s campaign and allies have spent more than $180 million on TV and radio advertising between mid-June and this week, according to Kantar Media’s political ad tracker. Trump and his supporters spent about $40 million in the same time period. Many of the Democratic ads focus on Trump, featuring footage of him insulting military leaders, women and immigrants — often with explicit language. “You can tell them to go f— themselves,” he’s shown saying in ads aired repeatedly by the campaign. The word is bleeped out, but the message is clear. Clinton’s comments about Trump’s supporters at the fundraiser were a clumsy version of her campaign message, one that she’d expressed in other settings as well. Speaking to donors in New York City, Clinton said half of Trump’s supporters were in “a basket of deplorables,” a crowd she described as racist, sexist, homophobic or xenophobic. Clinton later said she regretted applying that description to “half” of Trump’s backers, but stuck by her assertion that “it’s deplorable” that the GOP nominee has built his campaign on “prejudice and paranoia” and given a platform to “hateful views and voices.” Most American voters don’t see his backers as deplorable. Seven percent say Trump’s supporters are generally better people than the average American, 30 percent say they’re worse, and 61 percent consider them about the same. But Clinton’s comments resonate with the voters her campaign must turn out to the polls in large numbers on Election Day. Fifty-four percent of Democratic voters think that Trump’s backers are generally worse people than the average American. About half of black and Hispanic voters, and more than 4 in 10 voters under 30 years old, agree. “He’s a bully and he’s just made it acceptable,” said Patricia Barraclough, 69, a Clinton supporter in Jonesborough, Tennessee. “Since he started running, civility has just gone down the tubes. The name-calling. The bullying. All of a sudden it’s like it’s OK to act on it.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,694 adults, including 1,476 registered voters, was conducted online Sept. 15-19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, and for registered voters is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ AP writer Jill Colvin contributed from Philadelphia. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Lisa Lerer and AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/llerer and http://twitter.com/@EL_Swan Jul 23 AP-GfK Poll: Support grows among Americans for stricter gun laws By LISA MARIE PANE and RYAN J. FOLEY Jul. 23, 2016 Americans increasingly favor tougher gun laws by margins that have grown wider after a steady drumbeat of shootings in recent months, but they also are pessimistic that change will happen anytime soon, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Nearly two-thirds of respondents expressed support for stricter laws, with majorities favoring nationwide bans on the sale of semi-automatic assault weapons such as the AR-15 and on the sale of high-capacity magazines holding 10 or more bullets. The percentage of Americans who want such laws is the highest since the AP-GfK poll started asking the question in 2013, a survey taken about 10 months after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, that killed 20 children and six educators. High-profile shootings also appear to have taken a toll on Americans’ sense of safety. Strong majorities of those polled expressed some degree of concern that they or a relative will be a victim of gun violence or a mass shooting. “If you live in the United States in these days right now, you have to be concerned,” said Milonne Ambroise, a 63-year-old administrative assistant from Decatur, Georgia. “You could be on the street somewhere. You could be at a shopping mall thinking there will be a mass shooting and you will be in the middle of it. You can’t not think about it.” Ambroise, a native of Haiti who moved to the U.S. nearly 50 years ago, said she is now much more alert and on guard whenever she is in public. “I’m looking for exits. This isn’t something I did before,” she said. “What if I have to run? Where’s the exit? Where would I go?” The level of concern about being victimized is not uniform, however. Nonwhites are significantly more likely to be very or extremely concerned. Alonzo Lassiter, 66, of suburban St. Louis worries that his autistic 17-year-old son could be the victim of gun violence, either by a robber or the police. “If somebody told him to get on the ground and put his hands up — or told him to give up his headphones — he wouldn’t readily identify those instructions,” said Lassiter, who is black. “He may be an easy target.” He said straw purchasers who buy and then resell guns to ineligible felons and teenagers have flooded some urban neighborhoods with firearms and need to be stopped. The poll was conducted July 7 to July 11, shortly after a string of high-profile shootings. That included the Orlando nightclub massacre that left 50 dead, including the gunman, and 53 others wounded, and the fatal police shootings of black men in Minnesota and Louisiana. Most interviews took place after the sniper attack that killed five officers in Dallas. A majority of respondents expressed a desire for a national approach to gun laws, rather than a patchwork of state laws or local regulations, even though Congress has thus far failed to act on many of the initiatives the poll showed Americans support. Yet less than half of respondents said they believe gun laws will indeed get tougher in the coming year. By a 55 percent to 43 percent margin, respondents said laws that limit gun ownership do not infringe on the constitutional right to bear arms. But the responses also revealed a partisan divide: 87 percent of Democrats support stricter gun laws compared with 41 percent of Republicans. Gender and geography are other dividing lines, the poll found. Women and those who live in cities and suburbs are more likely to support gun restrictions than men and those who live in rural areas. Americans find common ground on other issues. Strong majorities of Democrats and Republicans said they support requiring background checks for people buying firearms at gun shows and through other private sales. They also back a ban on gun sales to people on the federal terrorism watch list even if they have not been convicted of a crime. “Why should it only be the dealers that have to do the background checks? At gun shows, individual sellers should be required to do the background checks so they don’t end up selling them to the criminal element,” said John Wallace, a disabled Vietnam veteran and former gun dealer who lives in Limestone, Maine, and owns several guns. Despite the support for tighter gun laws, majorities oppose banning handguns, imposing an Australia-style gun buyback program or making gun manufacturers or sellers liable if guns are later used in a crime. While 70 percent of people in gun-owning households favor universal background checks, there were stark differences in how gun-owning households and gun-free households view efforts to limit access. Just 42 percent of those who live in gun-owning households, for example, support bans on assault-style guns and banning high-capacity magazines. Kimberly Huebner is an exception. The 43-year-old high school special education teacher from San Marcos, Texas, grew up in a household with guns and learned firearms safety. She also believes some restrictions should be imposed, including a ban on AR-style firearms and high-capacity magazines. Her opinion has been shaped in part by recent mass shootings, she said. Huebner believes the Second Amendment gives Americans the right to protect themselves against the government, but not necessarily the right to possess any firearm they choose, especially when it comes to AR-platform long guns. Those types of firearms, she said, “just are not necessary. Nobody is using them to hunt deer.” Instead, she said, some people have a skewed view of the Second Amendment. “Like the Bible, they use it for their own arguments,” she said. “You can manipulate and twist arguments for your own benefits.” She believes current laws need to be better enforced, specifically citing gaps in enforcing background checks. ___ AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson contributed to this report from Washington, D.C. You can follow her on Twitter at https://twitter.com/EL_Swan. Follow Lisa Marie Pane at http://twitter.com/lisamariepane and Ryan J. Foley at https://twitter.com/rjfoley. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,009 adults was conducted online using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for the KnowledgePanel who did not have access to the internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com. Jul 19 AP-GfK Poll: Trump supporters unfazed by reversal on self-funding By JULIE BYKOWICZ and EMILY SWANSON WESTFIELD, Ind. (AP) — Donald Trump’s voters adored him for mostly paying his own way in the first half of the presidential campaign. Yet those same people are shrugging their shoulders now that he’s raising money just like the rivals he once disparaged as the “puppets” of big donors. A new Associated Press-GfK poll found that 63 percent of Trump supporters say they’re at least somewhat more likely to back a self-funded candidate, just as he once was. However, just 13 percent consider it a problem that Trump changed his mind — and nearly all those think it’s only a minor one. How can people care so strongly about a candidate’s original stance and then not care at all when he changes his mind? At a Trump rally this week near Indianapolis, some of his most ardent supporters explained their thinking. Many said it wouldn’t be fair for Trump, a billionaire businessman, to have to spend his own money against Hillary Clinton. The presumptive Democratic nominee and her allies aim to raise $1 billion for the general election. “It was inspiring to see someone spend their own money rather than relying on lobbyists,” said 18-year-old Maxwell Nugent, who will be casting his first presidential vote for Trump this November. “It makes it more profound for him to be asking all the people who supported him to be giving money to the campaign now.” Nugent, who wore a black T-shirt that reads: “Hillary’s Lies Matter,” said he likes that Trump “started from the bottom, with no donors.” So far, Trump has put about $50 million of his own money into his campaign, mostly through personal loans which he says he will not seek to recoup. But he assembled a fundraising operation two months ago and has raised more than $51 million for his campaign and Republican Party allies. Others who attended the Indiana rally said they have some concerns about Trump raising money — but also have faith that he won’t bend his policies to appease donors. “A big thing with me is that since he is a billionaire, he doesn’t need to be bought,” said Diane Martinez, who lives in Westfield, Indiana, and leads a group called Save Our Veterans that supports Trump. Trump has lamented the influence that super-donors such as Charles and David Koch and Sheldon Adelson hold over Republican politicians, naming those three specifically. Yet he’s now developing a relationship with Adelson, a billionaire Las Vegas gaming executive, that could unleash streams of money to help him win the election. The Koch brothers have no plans to back Trump. Americans have a negative view of the amount of money in politics. An AP-NORC poll conducted in November of 2015 found that 8 in 10 Americans, Republicans and Democrats alike, think campaign contributions influence the decisions that elected officials make. Trump supporters are among those who see an issue with the way campaign funding works. In the AP-GfK poll, 51 percent of Trump supporters call the way presidential candidates raise money for their campaigns very or extremely important to them, similar to the 46 percent of all Americans who say that. “We need absolute reform,” said Victor Wakley, another Save Our Veterans member at the Indiana rally for Trump. “I loved that he was paying his own way, and I do have some concerns now that he’s not.” Democrat Bernie Sanders, who solicited only small donations online and held no traditional fundraisers, made campaign finance reform a pillar of his presidential campaign. Clinton also has promised to press for an end to unlimited money that flows into campaigns through super political action committees, although she is making full use of those groups in her 2016 bid. Trump has called super PACs “corrupt” but offered no policy proposals about campaign finance. He’s also stopped talking about the corrosive effect of donor money since he began raising it. In an AP interview this spring, Trump said he is raising money only to help the Republican Party, and he has repeatedly said it would be easier for him to just write a big check to his own campaign. He also stresses that his campaign fundraising is coming from small donors, the way Sanders’ fundraising was. None of those statements is entirely true. Trump’s fundraising deal with the party includes a provision that the first $2,700 of any donation go to his campaign. The rest of it — up to about $500,000 per donor — is divided among the national party and some state Republican groups. Online solicitations accounted for less than half of the money Trump raised in late May and June, and it’s not clear how much of it was from small donors. Fundraising reports to federal regulators are due Wednesday night. On Trump’s self-funding reversal, 16 percent of all Americans polled by AP-GfK considered it a major problem and 21 percent a minor problem. Among Clinton supporters, 26 percent say they’re at least somewhat more likely to support a candidate who’s funding his or her own campaign, but more than half say they consider Trump’s reversal to be a problem, including 27 percent who say they think it’s a major problem. The Trump supporters say it’s no surprise Democrats are trying to emphasize Trump’s switch from self-funding to traditional funding. “There are a couple of ways to look at it,” said Jerry Loza, a Trump supporter at the Indiana rally. “You could say it’s hypocrisy. You could also say it’s a different game now.” The AP-GfK Poll of 1,009 adults was conducted online July 7-11, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the Internet were provided access for free. ___ Keep track on how much Clinton and Trump are spending on television advertising, and where they’re spending it, via AP’s interactive ad tracker. http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 18 AP-GfK Poll: Voters split over how to secure US from illegal immigration By EMILY SWANSON and VIVIAN SALAMA WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans reject Donald Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico and his support for deporting those in the country illegally. But they’re divided on the presumptive Republican nominee’s proposed temporary ban on the entry of Muslims from other countries, a new survey finds. The poll shows Trump’s shifting rhetoric on that ban might win some Americans over. When it comes to Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the Mexican border, about 6 in 10 Americans oppose the idea while 4 in 10 are for it, the new Associated Press-GfK poll indicated. Similarly, 6 in 10 Americans favor providing a way for immigrants who are in the country illegally to become U.S. citizens, while about 4 in 10 are opposed. Seventy-six percent of Democrats, along with 44 percent of Republicans, favor a path to citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally. Among Trump’s supporters, just 38 percent are in favor of a path to citizenship. Sixty-seven percent of Republicans and just 21 percent of Democrats favor a border wall. Three-quarters of Trump’s supporters favor that proposal. Trump’s likely rival, Democrat Hillary Clinton, has cast his calls for the border wall and temporary foreign Muslims ban as dangerous. Trump supporter Marile Womack, 79, of Debary, Florida, adamantly favors the border wall. No one else “had the guts to do it,” she said. But the daughter of Austrian immigrants isn’t opposed to immigration from any country so long as it’s done legally. “I don’t favor banning immigrants, but I am for investigating them before they come,” she said. In contrast, Mark Wecker, a car salesman from Redding, California, called a border wall stupid, because “it’s a lot of money and it’s not going to keep them out if they want to get in.” Three-quarters of Latinos, two-thirds of African-Americans and more than half of whites favor providing a path to citizenship. Forty-eight percent of whites, 26 percent of blacks and just 16 percent of Latinos favor a border wall. Daniella Gil, a stay-at-home-mom from Cornelius, Oregon, who is the daughter of Mexican immigrants, said, “We should be focusing on the violence coming from Syria as opposed to Hispanics jumping the border.” She said she supports immigration from any country so long as it’s done legally. Americans are slightly more likely to oppose than favor a temporary ban on Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States, by a 52 percent to 45 percent margin that has been strikingly consistent in AP-GfK polls conducted this year. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans say they favor the temporary ban on Muslim immigration, while 68 percent of Democrats are opposed. Half of whites and just a third of non-whites say they favor the ban. Seventy-six percent of Trump supporters are in favor. On a trip to Scotland last month, Trump shifted his rhetoric, saying he would instead “want terrorists out” of the U.S., and to do so, he would limit people’s entry from “specific terrorist countries and we know who those terrorist countries are.” The poll indicates that rhetorical shift could win support. Among those asked more broadly about a temporary ban on immigrants from areas of the world where there is a history of terrorism against the U.S. or its allies, 63 percent are in favor and 34 percent opposed. Ninety-four percent of Trump supporters say they favor this proposal, as do 45 percent of Clinton supporters. “That’s a necessity for creating stability,” said Ryan Williams, 40, a health care provider from Jacksonville, North Carolina. Most Americans — 53 percent — think the United States is currently letting in too many refugees from Syria, engulfed in civil war since 2011 and the Islamic State militant group’s de facto center. President Barack Obama has pledged to admit some 10,000 Syrian refugees this year. Another 33 percent think the current level is about right, while just 11 percent want to let in more. About 4 in 10 think there’s a very or somewhat high risk of refugees committing acts of religious or political violence in the United States, 34 percent think the risk moderate, and 24 percent consider it very or somewhat low. Seventy-six percent of Republicans think the U.S. should allow fewer refugees. Among Democrats, 43 percent think the current level is about right, 38 percent think the U.S. should allow fewer, and 18 percent want to allow more. Said Gil, the stay-at-home mom from Oregon, “Some of those people are innocent kids.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,009 adults was conducted online July 7-11, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the Internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Vivian Salama and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/vmsalama and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Jul 16 AP-GfK Poll: 8 years after hope and change, voters are angry, anxious By JULIE PACE ARVADA, Colorado (AP) — Eight years ago, Barbara Conley was one of the millions of Americans swept up in Barack Obama’s promises of hope and change when he accepted the Democratic nomination at a packed football stadium a few miles from her home in the Denver suburbs. But those optimistic days are almost unrecognizable to Conley now. With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton preparing for their own nominating conventions, the 68-year-old independent is filled with so much frustration at the candidates and the political system that propelled them to victory that she can’t even imagine voting in November. “I’m so mad about both of the candidates,” said Conley, who finds Clinton too dishonest and Trump too unproven to be president. She paused while loading groceries into her car and declared, “It’s depressing.” Less than four months before Election Day, that same sense of anger and anxiety runs deep with voters across the country. Trump and Clinton will each try to paint a rosy picture of life under their leadership during their back-to-back conventions, but it seems unlikely either can quickly shake Americans out of their bad mood. A stunning 79 percent of Americans now believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, a 15-point spike in the past year, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Voters are strikingly unhappy with the candidates who will be on the ballot this fall, with only 22 percent saying they would be proud to see Trump win and 27 percent to see Clinton. Julie Defoe, a 51-year-old who works for a startup, said she feels backed into a corner by the nominees. A self-described conservative Democrat who voted for Republicans in the past two presidential elections, Defoe has considered simply not voting in November. “Or can we rally for a box that says, can we get a do-over?” said Defoe, who lives in Lafayette, Colorado. Kristie Boltz, a registered Republican from Black Lake, Ohio, said a choice between Clinton and Trump is so unappealing that she would rather Obama stay in office for a third term. “And I didn’t even vote for Obama. How crazy is that?” said Boltz, a 39-year-old who works in marketing. By some measures, America’s palpable pessimism can appear at odds with the country’s economic and security standing. The economy is growing, jobs are being created and unemployment is low. Tens of thousands of American troops have come home from dangerous war zones during Obama’s presidency. Crime is down nationwide. But the improving economy is no doubt a changing one, leaving some Americans without the skills they need for the jobs available. Terrorism fears have been heightened in the U.S. after a string of deadly incidents in the West, including Thursday night’s attack in Nice, France, that killed more than 80 people during a Bastille Day celebration. This summer in particular has seemed to bring a steady stream of gruesome news. A mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub left 49 people dead, as well as a gunman who pledged his allegiance to the Islamic State group despite no formal ties to the group. Shootings by police of black men in Louisiana and Minnesota were captured on video, followed by the murder of five police officers in Dallas. The incidents seemed to momentarily spark national soul searching about gun violence and race relations. But as Americans looked toward the presidential candidates and other political leaders, some saw little sign of readiness to meet a challenging time. “I wish the candidates would get together and be a team to help each other and help the country, that’s what I wish,” said Lonila Duarte, a 71-year-old from Denver who plans to vote for Trump. “And stop acting like children.” Emilie Passow, a 68-year-old Democrat from Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania, said her disgust extends beyond the presidential candidates to Congress as well. “There’s so little attempt at conciliation and consensus,” she said. More than any other candidate in this election, Trump has latched onto the public’s fears. He promises to “Make America Great Again,” pledging to bring back manufacturing and mining jobs from areas where they’ve disappeared. With coded — and sometimes not so coded — language, he’s cast aspersions on immigrants seeking to come to the United States and on Muslims already here. “We’re trying to be so nice, we’re trying to be so civil. We’re so weak,” Trump said hours after the Nice attack. “The world has got to strengthen up, and we have to be very tight with our borders. It’s now a different world.” While Trump supporters cheer those lines, they leave other voters on edge. “It’s humiliating as an American that we would actually entertain that, that there are people who actually support him,” said Melissa Andreas, a 42-year-old dance instructor from Erie, Colorado. “I’m shocked.” Indeed, three-quarters of Americans consider Trump to be only slightly or not at all civil, and half say he’s at least somewhat racist, according to the AP-GfK poll. But three-quarters consider Clinton to be only slightly or not at all honest, and most think her use of a private email address and server while she was secretary of state broke the law, including 4 in 10 who think she did so intentionally. Andreas has never voted before in a presidential election. She liked Obama, but felt his Republican rivals John McCain and Mitt Romney were palatable enough that she didn’t see a need to cast a ballot in her swing state. That’s all changed in this election. “This election actually has me chiming in,” said Andreas, who plans to vote for Clinton. She said of the prospect of a Trump presidency: “I’m scared that our country is going to be in utter turmoil with him as our leader.” Seventy-six-year-old Mike Ryan shares many of those sentiments about Trump. But his view of Clinton isn’t much better. “I’ve always been a Democrat and always will be,” Ryan said. “But it’s going to be a toughy.” Like his fellow Coloradan Barbara Conley, some of Ryan’s feelings stem in part from his frustrations with Obama’s eight years in office. Though Ryan supports Obama, he’s been irritated by the years of battle between the Democratic president and Republican lawmakers that have often ended in stalemate. Asked whether he believes Clinton — or Trump — could do any better, Ryan said simply, “I’m disappointed with what we’re left with.” ___ Associated Press writers Kathleen Ronayne and Marc Levy, and AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson contributed to this report. ___ Follow Julie Pace on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jpaceDC Jul 15 AP-GfK Poll: Email investigation has hurt Clinton’s image By KEN THOMAS and EMILY SWANSON Jul. 15, 2016 WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Clinton enters the summer damaged by perceptions that she violated the law by using a private email system while serving as secretary of state, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds. More than half of Americans think the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee broke the law by using a private email account and server at the State Department and nearly 4 in 10 think she did so intentionally, according to the poll. Clinton has battled the notion during her campaign that she is dishonest and purposely set up the private email server because she wanted to hide her public and private exchanges from public scrutiny and skirt disclosure laws. Her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, calls her “crooked” at virtually every campaign appearance. FBI Director James Comey said last week that Clinton’s actions did not warrant prosecution and the Justice Department declined to seek criminal charges. But Comey said the former first lady and New York senator and her staff were “extremely careless” in their handling of classified material. “She’s innocent until proven guilty, but to me the FBI director called her guilty and then gave her a pass card,” said James Thompson, a 57-year-old Republican from Colchester, Connecticut. “If that was anyone else in this world, they would have been gone. They would have been down the river. They would have been in jail.” Large and growing numbers of voters view Clinton as dishonest, the poll indicates, but she is helped by Trump’s poor ratings on an array of personal attributes. The poll showed that two-thirds or more of Americans do not consider the GOP businessman to be even somewhat civil, honest, likable or qualified for office. Trump is poised to receive the Republican nomination next week at the party’s convention in Cleveland. Clinton will rally her supporters later this month in Philadelphia. Her ability to navigate the fallout from the email investigation will be a major plot line during the campaign. The poll found that 56 percent of Americans said they think the Democratic presidential candidate broke the law, including 39 percent who think she did so intentionally and 17 percent who think she did so unintentionally. In addition, 36 percent think Clinton used bad judgment but did not do anything illegal. And only 6 percent think Clinton did nothing wrong at all. Half of Americans — 50 percent — now consider Clinton’s emails to be a major problem, up from one-third who said that in October 2015. Another 31 percent consider it to be a minor problem and only 17 percent think it’s not a problem. Edgard Lopez, a 61-year-old Democrat from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, who runs a medical device company, said the email investigation was simply an attempt by the GOP to divert “the attention of the important matters for this country.” Lopez said Clinton would benefit from having former President Bill Clinton at her side, someone he considers “the best president this nation has had for many, many years.” Lopez, meanwhile, said he considers Trump to be racist and described him as “a rich guy who tried to step on a lot of toes.” “For me, he’s a piece of trash,” Lopez said. Clinton has sought to turn the issue of trust into a test of who will best address the economic and foreign policy issues that Americans care most about. But the poll showed a stark dividing line between Democrats and Republicans. Seventy-one percent of Republicans think Clinton intentionally broke the law, while another 18 percent think she unintentionally broke the law. Among Democrats, 61 percent think Clinton showed poor judgment but did not break the law, while 11 percent think she did nothing wrong at all. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to say Clinton’s email use is a major problem, 85 percent to 22 percent. But 49 percent of Democrats say it’s a minor problem, while just 29 percent don’t think it’s a problem at all. The poll suggests perceptions that Clinton is dishonest, already a major issue for her campaign, are growing. Fifty-five percent of Americans say the word “honest” doesn’t describe Clinton well at all, up slightly from 50 percent in April and 44 percent in October 2015. Another 18 percent say she is only slightly honest. Thompson, of Connecticut, said he supported neurosurgeon Ben Carson’s campaign in the Republican primaries but recently placed a Trump bumper sticker on his car. “I have come around on Trump just because I think he’s being more truthful than Hillary,” he said. “The truthfulness is everything. We can’t have somebody in office who is going to lie to us.” Americans are slightly more likely to say Trump is at least somewhat honest than Clinton, 30 percent to 24 percent. While the email investigation has drawn more attention in recent weeks, it remains to be seen if it will remain prominent on the minds of voters in the coming months. Just 32 percent of Americans say they’re following the email issue very or extremely closely, but that’s up from 21 percent in October of 2015. __ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,009 adults was conducted online July 7-11, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free. __ What political news is the world searching for on Google and talking about on Twitter? Find out via AP’s Election Buzz interactive. http://elections.ap.org/buzz Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 14 AP-GfK Poll: More people think life improves under Clinton By CATHERINE LUCEY and EMILY SWANSON Jul. 14, 2016 1:44 PM EDT WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans have mixed feelings on which presidential candidate will do better on health care, trade, the economy, terrorism and other important issues. But when they simply consider whether they personally would be better off, they prefer Democrat Hillary Clinton. The latest Associated Press-GfK poll shows that Americans are more likely to think people like themselves would benefit more from a Clinton White House than one run by Republican Donald Trump, by 36 percent to 29 percent. They also are much more likely to think women, LGBT people, Hispanics, Muslims and blacks would be better off under Clinton, while they largely think men and whites would be better off under Trump. Miles Kafka, 43, of Brooklyn, New York, said his life would “definitely” be better under Clinton “because Donald Trump’s policies are gibberish.” A registered Republican who works in computer programming, he supported Gov. John Kasich, R-Ohio, in the primary. “She’ll get the best done that she can,” Kafka said, adding that both Trump and Clinton were too aggressive on foreign policy for his taste. Sydney Sullivan, 21, a college student from Lynbrook, New York, echoed his sentiments. “I definitely think she’ll support women and minorities a lot better than Trump would. I think she has a better idea of the oppression that women and minorities face,” Sullivan said. “To me, he’s a racist, he’s a bigot. I’m not his biggest fan. I’m worried about his comments and how people can support comments like that.” On major issues in the race, voters are divided over which candidate they trust more, reflecting the deep divisions in the electorate. Clinton has a clear advantage on handling health care, the U.S. image abroad, filling Supreme Court vacancies, working with Congress and improving race relations, according to the poll. The numbers on race relations were particularly stark, with Americans more likely to trust Clinton than Trump to make improvements, 45 percent to 17 percent. The former secretary of state also has a slight advantage on handling international trade. But Trump has a slight advantage on handling the economy and creating jobs, and on handling the threat of domestic terrorism — issues that rank among the most important for Americans. “He talks like he can deal with China and different countries in the Middle East. I think he can do better with foreign relations,” said Stewart Van Sickle, 75, a retiree in High Ridge, Missouri. Van Sickle said that Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton “are mostly interested in what will make money for them.” People are closely divided over who would better handle immigration, protecting the country, gun laws and making America great. On making America great — Trump’s campaign slogan — 31 percent thought he would do a better job, 28 percent favored Clinton and 34 percent said neither. Some 55 percent thought Clinton would be better for Muslims, while just 9 percent thought Trump would be. White people and men were thought to do better under Trump, with 41 percent saying men will fare better under him, compared with 20 percent for Clinton. Still, about one-quarter of those polled think people like themselves wouldn’t be better off under either candidate. Ronald Knope, a 69-year-old retiree from Glencoe, Minnesota, said he was supporting Trump and thought he would do better with Trump as president. But Knope also acknowledged dissatisfaction with his options. “To tell you the truth. I don’t think we have a good choice, but I think he’s probably a better choice,” Knope said. “I like the fact that he’s not from the political machine.” __ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,009 adults was conducted online July 7-11, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the Internet were provided access for free. ___ Follow Catherine Lucey and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/catherine_lucey and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 14 AP-GfK Poll: Fear Factor – Americans scared of their presidential options By LISA LERER and EMILY SWANSON Jul. 14, 2016 7:07 AM EDT WASHINGTON (AP) — The vast majority of Americans say they are afraid of at least one of the two major candidates — Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump — winning the White House, a remarkable finding that reflects an unsettled nation unhappy with its choice. Eighty-one percent of Americans say they would feel afraid following the election of one of the two polarizing politicians, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. That includes a quarter who say it doesn’t matter who wins: they’re scared of both. Three-quarters of voters say their pick for president is motivated by a desire to cast their Election Day ballot against Clinton or Trump, more than those who say they’re voting for the candidate who shares their positions on the issues or is the most qualified to hold the office. Said Dennis Fernandez, 67, of Florence, Arizona: “If Hillary Clinton won, I’d probably consider suicide. I’m definitely not a fan.” And Lawrence James, 55, of Durham, North Carolina, said: “If Trump wins, well, we’ve already checked out Malta and New Zealand. I’m just not comfortable that he’s not going to make rushed, uninformed decisions.” On the eve of the summer’s political conventions, at which the general election campaign officially begins, the latest AP-GfK findings underscore the deep sense of unease that is sharpening the political divide in America and shaping an already nasty race for president. So much so that notable numbers of Americans even hold negative views about the candidate they want to win: 14 percent of both Trump’s and Clinton’s supporters say they’re backing a candidate they don’t like. The survey was conducted after the fatal police shootings of two black men by police officers last week in Louisiana and Minnesota, and mostly after a sniper seeking revenge for those slayings killed five police officers in Dallas during a peaceful protest march. The poll found Americans hold resoundingly negative opinions of both candidates. Fifty-seven percent have an unfavorable view of Clinton, compared to 37 percent who have a favorable view. Sixty-three percent have a negative view of Trump, compared to the 31 percent who think well of him. “I really don’t love either of the candidates. What do they say? It’s a choice between hot and hell,” said Annette Scott, 70, of Monmouth County, New Jersey. Scott, a retiree, said she’s seeking answers to the countries problems — and failing to find them from either candidate. “Please give me solutions. Whether they are workable or not workable, at least propose them so everybody can talk about it,” she said. Fifty-six percent of Americans said they would feel afraid and 48 percent say they’d feel regret if Trump wins the White House. Just 22 percent said they’d be proud and 26 percent excited should America pick Trump on Election Day. Clinton doesn’t fare much better: If she’s elected president, 48 percent say they would be afraid and 46 percent say they would feel regretful. Only 27 percent of Americans would be proud of that choice, and 26 percent would be excited at her election. Half of Clinton’s own supporters consider her only slightly or not at all honest, and more than a third say she’s only slightly or not at all likable. Overall, only a quarter of Americans think Clinton is at least somewhat honest. The poll was conducted after the FBI recommended she not face criminal charges for her use of a private email account and servers as secretary of state. In recent weeks, Clinton has started to acknowledge that many voters simply do not trust her. “I personally know that I have work to do on this front,” she said in Chicago last month. “You can’t just talk someone into trusting you. You’ve got to earn it.” Still, for Clinton, there was some good news in the poll: nearly two-thirds of Americans think she’ll win the election. Forty-seven percent of Trump’s supporters consider him only slightly or not at all civil, 39 percent say he’s slightly or not at all likable and 31 percent say he’s only slightly or not at all qualified. Of those backing him, 14 percent consider him at least somewhat racist. But even while they voice concerns about their own candidate, vast majorities of voters see the alternative as far worse. Eighty percent of Trump supporters and three-quarters of Clinton backers say a major reason for their support is opposition to the other candidate. The coalitions backing the candidates have remained largely unchanged from the primary race, with Clinton doing better among women and minority voters. Women are more likely than men to have a favorable opinion of Clinton, 40 percent to 33 percent. Sixty-eight percent of blacks, 52 percent of Hispanics and 28 percent of whites have a favorable view of Clinton. Men are more likely than women to have a favorable opinion of Trump, 34 percent to 28 percent. Forty percent of whites, 13 percent of Hispanics and 7 percent of blacks have a favorable opinion of Trump. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,009 adults was conducted online July 7-11, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the Internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Lisa Lerer and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/llerer and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Apr 16 AP-GfK Poll: Americans happy at home, upset with federal government By TAMMY WEBBER and EMILY SWANSON CHICAGO (AP) — All that talk of an angry America? An Associated Press-GfK poll finds that most Americans are happy with their friends and family, feel good about their finances and are more or less content at work. It’s government, particularly the federal government, that’s making them see red. Almost 8 in 10 Americans say they’re dissatisfied or angry with the way the federal government is working, while about the same proportion say they’re satisfied or enthusiastic about their personal lives. Republicans are far more likely to be angry — half of GOP voters, compared with about one-quarter of Democrats or independents — and those Republicans are much more supportive of Donald Trump, the front-runner for the party’s presidential nomination. Still, anger isn’t so much driven by political ideology as it is by an overall disdain for a political system that doesn’t seem to be working, voters said in follow-up interviews. They’re upset with both parties, as well as career politicians and Washington insiders who, those surveyed said, don’t put their constituents’ interests first. “There are too many lobbyists and people who are not really working for the people anymore. They’re working to line their own pockets,” said 37-year-old Greg Boire of Belding, Michigan, who works as a bank customer service representative and voted for Trump in that state’s Republican primary. “It happens on both sides. … It’s just the whole government in general.” John Santoro of San Jose, California, a 58-year-old market development manager for a company that makes semiconductor-related products, said he’s doing well financially but is angry about a lack of progress to lower the country’s debt. He mostly blames President Barack Obama, but “politicians on both sides of the aisle are to blame because they just can’t get anything done. They just fundraise and get contributions from special interests.” The AP-GfK poll showed that angry Republicans such as Boire and Santoro were much more likely than those who are just dissatisfied to have a favorable view of Trump, by 62 percent to 42 percent. Fifty-eight percent of dissatisfied Republicans, but just 36 percent of angry ones, have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Both men say they do support Trump — to a point. They believe he could shake up Washington, but worry about his rhetoric and lack of campaign organization. Boire said he’s impressed that Trump is spending his own money and that what he says “is his opinion and not that of the lobbyists.” But Boire would be satisfied if the more politically experienced Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the nomination because Trump “does not have the filter to shut off” negative comments. Santoro said he might vote for Cruz in the California primary if Trump doesn’t “cinch things up” and run a more professional campaign. Even so, Trump has harnessed anger toward the federal government to win many die-hard supporters, like 58-year-old Debra Waterson of Petoskey, Michigan. She supported Obama in 2008 and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., four years ago. She’s upset that the gun lobby has a strong influence in Washington and that the Senate won’t vote on Obama’s nominee for Supreme Court. But she’s even angrier about the economy and foreign trade deals, so she voted for Trump in the Republican primary. “Up here in northern Michigan, there is so much unemployment and so many can’t afford to eat or buy medicine,” said Waterson, who said her family is getting by. In the Democratic race against Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders also has drawn support of voters who say they’re fed up with the federal government. Retired Miami postal worker Kenneth Olinsky, a Sanders supporter, said he’s angry at Republicans in Congress for being “obstructionist” on legislation that could help working-class or low-income families. “They haven’t done anything for the people as much as they’ve done for the wealthy and for businesses,” said Olinsky, 61. “There is a definite class system in this country; it’s the haves against the have nots.” In the poll, people were slightly more likely to describe the economy as good than they were in February, 45 percent to 41 percent. Despite the current uptick, 54 percent describe the economy as poor. Still, two-thirds or more of Democrats and Republicans say they’re at least satisfied with their personal and family relationships, financial situations, careers, and work-life balance. Independents lag behind on each of those measures, but are still more likely than not to be satisfied with each. But the vast majority of Americans — 71 percent — still think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Nearly half of Democrats, but less than 1 in 10 Republicans, think the country is headed in the right direction. Christopher Ashby, 32, a stay-at-home dad in Albemarle, North Carolina, who describes himself as a very conservative Republican and firm Trump supporter, said he is angry about government handouts for people and corporations and the influence of lobbyists and special-interest groups. “For everyone in politics at this moment, it’s a career, and nobody is in this career to help the little person,” said Ashby. “We need a complete whitewash of the system (because) politics should … be something you do because you love helping the people.” __ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the Internet were provided access for free. ___ Swanson reported from Washington. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 14 AP-GfK Poll: Americans prefer low prices to items ‘Made in the USA’ By JOSH BOAK and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — The vast majority of Americans say they prefer lower prices instead of paying a premium for items labeled “Made in the U.S.A.,” even if it means those cheaper items are made abroad, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. While presidential candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are vowing to bring back millions of American jobs lost to China and other foreign competitors, public sentiment reflects core challenges confronting the U.S. economy. Incomes have barely improved, forcing many households to look for the most convenient bargains instead of goods made in America. Employers now seek workers with college degrees, leaving those with only a high school degree who once would have held assembly lines jobs in the lurch. And some Americans who work at companies with clients worldwide see themselves as part of a global market. Nearly three in four say they would like to buy goods manufactured inside the United States, but those items are often too costly or difficult to find, according to the survey released Thursday. A mere 9 percent say they only buy American. Asked about a real world example of choosing between $50 pants made in another country or an $85 pair made in the United States — one retailer sells two such pairs made with the same fabric and design — 67 percent say they’d buy the cheaper pair. Only 30 percent would pony up for the more expensive American-made one. People in higher earning households earning more than $100,000 a year are no less likely than lower-income Americans to say they’d go for the lower price. “Low prices are a positive for US consumers — it stretches budgets and allows people to save for their retirements, if they’re wise, with dollars that would otherwise be spent on day-to-day living,” said Sonya Grob, 57, a middle school secretary from Norman, Oklahoma who described herself as a “liberal Democrat.” But Trump and Sanders have galvanized many voters by attacking recent trade deals. From their perspective, layoffs and shuttered factories have erased the benefits to the economy from reduced consumer prices. “We’re getting ripped off on trade by everyone,” said Trump, the Republican front-runner, at a Monday speech in Albany, New York. “Jobs are going down the drain, folks.” The real estate mogul and reality television star has threatened to shred the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada. He has also threatened to slap sharp tariffs on China in hopes of erasing the overall $540 billion trade deficit. Economists doubt that Trump could deliver on his promises to create the first trade surplus since 1975. Many see the backlash against trade as frustration with a broader economy coping with sluggish income gains. “The reaction to trade is less about trade and more about the decline in people’s ability to achieve the American Dream,” said Caroline Freund, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It’s a lot easier to blame the foreigner than other forces that are affecting stagnant wage growth like technology.” But Trump’s message appeals to Merry Post, 58, of Paris, Texas where the empty factories are daily reminders of what was lost. Sixty-eight percent of people with a favorable opinion of Trump said that free trade agreements decreased the number of jobs available to Americans. “In our area down here in Texas, there used to be sewing factories and a lot of cotton gins,” Post said. “I’ve watched them all shut down as things went to China, Mexico and the Philippines. All my friends had to take early retirements or walk away.” Sanders, the Vermont senator battling for the Democratic nomination, has pledged to end the exodus of jobs overseas. “I will stop it by renegotiating all of the trade agreements that we have,” Sanders told the New York Daily News editorial board earlier this month, saying that the wages paid to foreigner workers and environmental standards would be part of any deal he would strike. Still, voters are divided as to whether free trade agreements hurt job creation and incomes. Americans are slightly more likely to say free trade agreements are positive for the economy overall than negative, 33 percent to 27 percent. But 37 percent say the deals make no difference. Republicans (35 percent) are more likely than Democrats (22 percent) to say free trade agreements are bad for the economy. On jobs, 46 percent say the agreements decrease jobs for American workers, while 11 percent say they improve employment opportunities and 40 percent that they make no difference. Pessimism was especially pronounced among the 18 percent of respondents with a family member or friend whose job was offshored. Sixty-four percent of this group said free trade had decreased the availability of jobs. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ On Twitter follow Emily Swanson at @EL_Swan and Josh Boak at @joshboak Apr 13 AP-GfK Poll: Public wants Senate action on court, but interest is modest By ALAN FRAM and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 2 in 3 Americans back Democrats’ demands that the Republican-run Senate hold hearings and a vote on President Barack Obama’s pick for the Supreme Court. But an Associated Press-GfK poll also suggests that GOP defiance against considering the nominee may not hurt the party much because, to many people, the election-year fight is simply not a big deal. Just 1 in 5 in the survey released Wednesday said they’ve been following the battle over Obama’s nomination of federal judge Merrick Garland extremely or very closely. That included just 26 percent of Democrats and 22 percent of Republicans expressing intense interest, along with a scant 8 percent of independents. That aligns with the political reading of the issue by many Republicans that while it motivates each side’s most committed partisans, people in the middle consider it a yawner — making the fight essentially a wash. Another clue that voters not dedicated to either party find the court fight tiresome: While just over half of Democrats and Republicans said the issue is extremely or very important, only around a third of independents — and half of Americans overall — said so. About 8 in 10 said that about the economy and about 7 in 10 took the same stance about health care and the threat posed by the Islamic State group. Immigration and the U.S. role in world affairs both attracted slightly more intensity of interest than the court battle. “It gets me irritated, the bickering and all that kind of stuff,” Julie Christopher, 49, a Republican and flight attendant from Fort Worth, Texas, said in a follow-up interview, describing her modest attention to the issue. Christopher said that while she agrees with the GOP’s refusal to hold hearings on Garland, when it comes to backing candidates in November, “That’s not going to be my only thing, like boom, I’m not going to vote for them.” Hours after Justice Antonin Scalia’s death in February, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said his chamber would not consider an Obama nominee and would instead wait until the president elected this November makes a pick. With the remaining justices split 4-4 between those leaning conservative or liberal, most GOP senators have lined up behind McConnell. Democrats have been spewing outrage ever since. Along with liberal groups, they’ve been using television ads, news conferences, public demonstrations and Senate speeches to ratchet up pressure on GOP senators, especially those facing re-election this fall in swing and Democratic-leaning states like Illinois, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Democrats’ theory is that the public wants Republicans to end their obstruction and let the Senate do its job, forcing GOP senators to relent on Garland or risk defeat in November. The AP-GfK poll has some data backing that up. The 64 percent who favor hearings and a vote this year on Garland include an overwhelming proportion of Democrats and a sizable minority of Republicans, 40 percent. Independents, who can be pivotal in closely divided states, back action this year, 52 percent to 36 percent. “I’d rather see at least deliberations, and see Congress do its job,” said Marc Frigon, 33, a high-tech worker from Beverly, Massachusetts, who leans Republican and wants the Senate to reject Garland’s confirmation. “I feel like that’s why we elected them in the first place.” Just over half of moderate and liberal Republicans want the Senate to hold hearings this year, while fewer than 3 in 10 GOP conservatives say that. Overall, people say by 59 percent to 36 percent that they want the Senate to approve Garland should a vote be held. Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats favor confirmation and independents tilt slightly that way, while 69 percent of Republicans favor rejecting him. In another sign that the public tips toward Obama on the issue, 57 percent approve of the way he’s been handling the Garland nomination. That’s more than the number who gave the president positive reviews on any other issue in the poll: the economy, health care, Islamic State militants, immigration and world affairs. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the Internet were provided access for free. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 12 AP-GfK Poll: Republicans not itching for a convention fight By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Republican voters think the candidate with the most delegates heading into the party’s convention in July should ultimately emerge as the GOP’s presidential nominee, regardless of whether he holds the majority of all delegates needed to secure the nomination, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The survey finds Republicans are more likely to think of Donald Trump as a possible general election winner than either of his current GOP rivals. Here are some things to know about opinions on a contested convention and which Republican candidates could win a general election from the latest AP-GfK poll: NOT LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVES According to the new poll, nearly 6 in 10 Republican voters — 58 percent — think the candidate with the most delegates after all the state contests are finished should be the nominee, even if he doesn’t have a clear majority. Just 40 percent think it would be acceptable for the delegates to pick a different candidate. That’s true even though slightly fewer have a favorable opinion of Trump, who will likely go into the convention with more delegates than any other candidate. Just 53 percent of Republican voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 46 percent have an unfavorable opinion. ___ DIVIDED OVER TRUMP Within the Republican Party, opinions of Trump draw a dramatic divide in terms of how the convention should work out. Eight in 10 Republican voters who have a favorable opinion of Trump think the party should nominate the ultimate delegate leader. But among Republican voters with an unfavorable opinion of Trump, two-thirds think it would be acceptable for the delegates to choose someone else. Another third of those who don’t like Trump nonetheless think the party should nominate the delegate leader in the end. ___ AMERICA DIVIDED Among all Americans, nearly half think it would be acceptable for the delegates at the GOP convention to choose a different nominee, while about as many think the candidate in the lead should be the nominee. Democratic voters think by a 63 percent to 35 percent margin that it would be acceptable for the Republican delegates to nominate another candidate if the leader doesn’t have a majority of delegates. ___ PICKING A WINNER? Although some Republican leaders have expressed concern that a Trump nomination would lead to a loss in November, that’s not a concern most Republican voters share. Eighty-one percent think Trump could possibly win a general election, versus those who say so of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (66 percent) or Ohio Gov. John Kasich (just 41 percent). But the poll suggests both of the top GOP candidates would in fact be hard sells in a general election, with 63 percent of registered voters saying they would definitely not vote for Trump and 55 percent that they wouldn’t consider voting for Cruz. Forty-four percent say they wouldn’t consider voting for Kasich. By contrast, 51 percent say they wouldn’t consider voting for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a general election and 38 percent wouldn’t consider voting for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Still, even among Americans as a whole, about 6 in 10 think Trump could potentially win a general election, just under half think Cruz could and only a third think Kasich could. Kasich is still largely unknown to the American people, with 34 percent, including 26 percent of Republican voters, unable to say if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL_Swan ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 12 AP-GfK Poll: Most voters say ‘meh’ _ at best _ on the presidential field By LAURIE KELLMAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Most American voters say “meh” — at best — about the 2016 field of presidential candidates in both parties. That’s according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which shows that a majority of Americans believe none of the remaining candidates for president represents their opinions at least somewhat well. At least half of Americans say they would be disappointed or even angry if either of the front-runners — Donald Trump for the Republicans or Hillary Clinton for the Democrats — are nominated, the survey shows. And a quarter said they would be disappointed or angry if both win nominations. Still another quarter would feel at best neutral if both are nominated. Among all registered voters, 63 percent say they wouldn’t consider voting for Trump and half say the same about Clinton. About one-fifth of those surveyed say they’d either probably or definitely vote for a third-party candidate if Trump and Clinton are the nominees. Roland Bauer, 64, a retiree from Winter Springs, Fla., plans not to vote if Clinton and Trump are nominated. “I don’t trust politicians,” he says. “Everybody is on the take.” Bruce Bertsch, a libertarian and retired human resources director from San Diego, says the public’s lukewarm reaction to the major-party hopefuls doesn’t come from disinterest or apathy — quite the opposite. Here’s how his friends and family see the candidates: “Hillary Clinton is a liar. Donald Trump is an idiot. And Bernie (Sanders)? He’s an old fool,” Bertsch, 78, said by telephone Monday. To Bertsch, the Republican and Democratic competitors look like this: “The Democrats want to spend my money. The Republicans want to tell me how to live my life — and then spend my money.” The AP-GfK poll suggests the general election, after the parties name nominees, will be less about emotional appeals and inspiration and more about getting actual voters to cast votes before the end of Election Day. It’s what insiders call the “ground game.” And much of it is played over the airwaves at enormous expense. “In the general election, it’s an air war,” said former Republican strategist Rich Galen, author of a political blog. “The goal is to get not only your people out to vote, but to get these people who are maybe sitting on the sidelines excited enough to come out and join the game.” Even within their own parties, neither Trump nor Clinton generates much enthusiasm. Only 26 percent of Democratic voters say they’d be excited about Clinton being their nominee, and 27 percent say they’d be satisfied. Another 23 percent would feel neutral, 19 percent would be disappointed and 5 percent would be angry, the poll found. Trump fares even worse among Republican voters, with 19 percent saying they’d be enthusiastic, 19 percent satisfied, 20 percent neutral, 25 percent disappointed and 16 percent angry. Less than half of Americans say any of the remaining candidates, including Sanders, Ted Cruz or John Kasich, comes close to representing their opinions on the issues. And in a year dominated by Trump-generated theatrics and his so-far scant policy details, substance matters, most voters say. Nearly 9 in 10 Americans call a candidate’s positions on the issues extremely or very important to them. Among all the remaining candidates, only Sanders, Clinton’s Democratic rival, generates significantly more positive than negative ratings from Americans, with 48 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of him and 39 percent unfavorable. He’s also the only candidate described by a majority of Americans as at least somewhat likable, civil, honest and compassionate. Nearly 7 in 10 Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, nearly 6-in-10 have an unfavorable view of Cruz and a majority — 55 percent — have an unfavorable view of Clinton, according to the poll. Americans are fairly evenly divided on Kasich, with 34 percent expressing a favorable view and 31 percent an unfavorable one. Another 34 percent still don’t know enough about him to say. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults used a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Follow Laurie Kellman on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/APLaurieKellman and Emily Swanson at http://www.twitter.com/El_Swan . ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 11 AP-GfK Poll: Sanders lags in delegates but leads in likability By CATHERINE LUCEY and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Bernie Sanders is still behind when it comes to delegates and votes, but he has one clear advantage over his Democratic and Republican presidential rivals — a lot of people actually like him. By 48 percent to 39 percent, more Americans have a favorable than an unfavorable opinion of Sanders, giving him the best net-positive rating in the field, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Unlike the other candidates, Sanders also is doing better as more Americans get to know him: His favorable rating is up from an earlier AP-GfK poll. The numbers speak to Sanders’ rapid rise from a relatively unknown Vermont senator to a celebrated voice proclaiming political revolution. They also reflect just how unpopular the rest of the field is. But the growing popularity may be coming too late for Sanders, who lags Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, with time running out in the primary campaign. After winning the Democratic caucuses in Wyoming on Saturday, Sanders has now won seven of the past eight state contests. Still, to win the Democratic nomination, he must take 68 percent of the remaining delegates and uncommitted superdelegates, which would require a sudden burst of blow-out victories. “I just like everything that he talks about and that he wants to do,” said Brian Cane, 54, of Spokane, Washington. “I think Hillary, she’s too mainstream government. Bernie Sanders is fresh and new and the Republicans are freaking idiots.” Still, Cane echoed the sentiments of many Democrats, saying that if Clinton wins the primary, “Yeah, I’ll vote for her.” The poll was conducted March 31-April 4, before Sanders and Clinton sparred publicly over who was best qualified to be president. Sanders’ popularity stands in contrast to the rest of the remaining candidates. Clinton gets unfavorable ratings from 55 percent of Americans, while just 40 percent have a favorable opinion. A whopping 69 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of Republican leader Donald Trump, and just 26 percent have a favorable opinion. Among Democrats, 72 percent have a favorable opinion of Sanders and 20 percent have an unfavorable opinion. That’s similar to Democrats’ rating of Clinton. It’s also improved from 61 percent who had a favorable view of Sanders in February, while his unfavorable rating remained stable. “I’ve grown to like him more. The exposure that he’s getting, there’s a bit of a snowball effect with his campaign,” said Les Blackmore, 60, of Washington, D.C., who is leaning toward Sanders. Twenty-three percent of Republicans and 38 percent of independents have a favorable view of Sanders, while 67 percent of Republicans and 32 percent of independents give him negative ratings. Just 7 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of independents rate Clinton positively. About 61 percent of registered voters say they’d at least consider voting for Sanders in a general election, while 38 percent said they would definitely not. The percentage saying they would not vote for him is the lowest in the entire field. Fifty-one percent say they wouldn’t vote for Hillary Clinton, though she still does better than any of the Republican candidates on that measure. Sixty-three percent say they wouldn’t vote for Trump. Sanders is the only candidate remaining in the field on either side who’s viewed as at least somewhat honest, compassionate, civil and likable by a majority of Americans. Fifty-eight percent say he’s at least somewhat civil, compared with 48 percent for Clinton and just 15 percent for Trump. Likewise, 58 percent call him at least somewhat compassionate, compared with 42 percent for Clinton and 17 percent for Trump. “I do like both of them,” said Tami Cinquemani, 55, of Apopka, Florida, who voted for Clinton. “I feel like Hillary is more qualified. … I like Bernie. Honestly I wouldn’t be disappointed either way.” Though Sanders is more popular, Clinton remains the candidate viewed by the most Americans as able to win a general election, with 82 percent saying she could capture the White House. Just 6 in 10 say that of Sanders or Trump. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. Apr 11 AP-GfK Poll: Clinton has edge over Trump on range of issues By JULIE PACE and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — In a stark warning for Donald Trump as he eyes a possible general election showdown with Hillary Clinton, Americans trust the Democratic front-runner more than the Republican businessman to handle a wide range of issues — from immigration to health care to nominating Supreme Court justices. Even when asked which of the two candidates would be best at “making American great” — the central promise of Trump’s campaign — Americans are slightly more likely to side with Clinton, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The survey does reveal some potential trouble spots for Clinton. Trump is nearly even with her on whom Americans trust to handle the economy, which voters consistently rank as one of the top issues facing the country. Clinton is trusted more on the economy by 38 percent of Americans, while 35 percent side with Trump. And despite Americans’ overall preference for Clinton on a host of issues, just 20 percent say she represents their own views very well on matters they care about, while 23 percent say somewhat well. But as with most issues addressed in the AP-GfK poll, the numbers for Trump are even worse: Just 15 percent of Americans say he represents their views very well and 14 percent say somewhat well. Trump’s support with registered Republican voters is also soft on some issues, with less than 50 percent saying they trust him over Clinton on working with Congress or handling the U.S. image abroad. About a quarter of Republicans say they trust neither candidate on either of those issues. Those figures underscore the work the real estate mogul must do to shore up support within his own party if he’s the nominee. Greg Freeman, an independent who leans Republican, said he would “absolutely not” trust Trump to handle major issues facing the United States. “I think he would have the U.S. in wars at the drop of a hat. He would make the international community angry at the United States,” said Freeman, a 41-year-old from Walhalla, South Carolina. “He has a lot of comments on issues, but he has no solutions.” While Clinton and Trump are the favorites to face off in the fall campaign, obstacles remain, particularly for the Republican billionaire. He’s leading in the delegate count, but needs to perform better in the upcoming final primaries in order to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. If he fails to hit that number, the GOP contest will be decided at the party’s convention in July — and it’s unclear whether Trump’s slim campaign operation is prepared for that complex challenge. Clinton has yet to shake Democratic challenger Bernie Sanders, a Vermont senator who has energized young voters with his calls for breaking up Wall Street banks and making tuition free at public colleges and universities. While Sanders faces tough odds of overtaking Clinton, who has a commanding lead in delegates, his continued presence in the race has rankled the former secretary of state and prevented her from fully turning her attention toward the general election. Still, Clinton has been starting to draw a contrast with her potential Republican opponents, namely Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, his closest rival. “I’m really looking forward to debating either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz,” Clinton said Friday. “Mr. Trump, tell me again about how you’re going to build this wall and make the Mexicans pay for it. Tell me again why you think it’s a good idea for Japan and South Korea to develop nuclear weapons.” Trump’s campaign appears well-aware of the need to bolster the businessman’s policy credentials. He’s recently expanded on his foreign policy views, including questioning U.S. participation in the NATO military alliance and suggesting some Asian nations may need nuclear weapons. Campaign officials have also said Trump plans to give a series of policy speeches in the coming weeks. Clinton’s edge over Trump on the issues spans both foreign and domestic policy. She holds a significant advantage on handling immigration, health care, the U.S. image abroad, filling Supreme Court vacancies, international trade and working with Congress. Her biggest advantage is on handling gender equality issues, with 55 percent of Americans trusting her and just 12 percent backing Trump. Clinton has a slimmer lead over Trump on which candidate is trusted to protect the country, with 37 percent backing the Democrat and 31 percent backing the Republican. The margin is similar when Americans were asked who they trusted to handle the threat posed by the Islamic State group. Much of Trump’s appeal with voters has rested on his broad pledge to “make America great again.” But when asked which candidate they trusted more to make the country great, 33 percent of Americans picked Clinton and 28 percent backed Trump. Thirty percent said they didn’t trust either candidate to make that happen. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Follow Julie Pace and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jpaceDC and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 09 AP-GfK Poll: Improved economic outlook boosts Obama approval By KATHLEEN HENNESSEY and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — As many in the United States hold their noses in the search for the next president, they’re increasingly warming to the president they already have. Buoyed by some good economic news and a surge of goodwill from his base of supporters, President Barack Obama is seeing his approval rating rise. That puts Obama, who leaves office in January, in a position to remain a force in the political debate at a point in his final term when some others faded into the background. For the first time since 2013, half of those questioned approve of the job Obama is doing in office, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. The survey found the apparent uptick in approval extended across issues, including foreign affairs, immigration and, most notably the economy, where people said they felt slightly better about their own prospects and Obama’s stewardship. Asked about their opinion of Obama more generally, those surveyed were more likely to give him a positive rating than any of the candidates for president, Republican or Democrat. Terry Trudeau, 66, said he preferred Obama to “all of them” running for the White House. “One of the qualities I like is he’s been able to work with other countries and make deals,” Trudeau said, citing Obama’s climate change pacts with China as an example. “Donald Trump will never been able to do that. He would try to bully them.” Obama’s numbers remain modest. Compared with his predecessors, he’s well above Republican George W. Bush, who had about a 30 percent approval rating at this point in his presidency, but below Democrat Bill Clinton’s roughly 60 percent, according to polls conducted by Gallup. Still, where each of those second-term presidents largely sat on the sidelines during the races to replace them, Obama is poised to stay in the game. Approval ratings generally are tied to how people feel about the economy. Obama has enjoyed and promoted a steady trickle of positive economic news. The survey showed people were slightly more likely to describe the economy as good and slightly more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were in February. Still, 54 percent characterize the economy as poor. While the poll found an increase in approval among Democrats and with people under 50, there is no evidence that Republican opposition is thawing or that the president has become a less polarizing figure. Only about 1 in 10 Republicans expressed a positive opinion of Obama or the job he’s doing. “I just feel that he’s out of touch with what’s going on. I feel like he’s more concerned with his legacy that making change,” said Angela Buckmaster, a 47-year-old Republican from Lansing, Michigan. Still, the numbers may help explain some of Obama’s recent swagger and why it’s likely to continue as he tries to rally his party behind its eventual 2016 nominee — Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Obama has been quick to take aim at GOP candidates. This past week, he called front-runner Trump’s latest immigration proposal “half-baked.” The president seized the spotlight with a new rule and aggressive critique aimed at corporate tax dodgers, risking riling Wall Street but capitalizing on the populism of the moment. He has put himself at the front and center of the fight over the Supreme Court, returning on Thursday to the law school where he once taught and portraying the GOP blockade of his nominee as a threat to democracy. Obama also conducted his first interview as president with “Fox News Sunday,” a favorite show for conservatives. The White House says Obama always planned to squeeze every last minute out of his two terms, regardless of his popularity. Aides have promised more policy announcements, particularly economic initiatives, as several efforts long in the works come to fruition. Also, he probably will be a force in the campaign, working to fire up his core coalition of young, African-American and Hispanic voters, and backers in Rust Belt states, where he has continued to show strength. Eighty-one percent of those questioned in the poll say the economy is a very or extremely important issue to them personally, compared with the 74 percent who say that about health care or the 69 percent about the threat posed by the Islamic State group. People were split 49 percent to 49 percent, in their approval or disapproval of Obama’s handling of the economy. But that divide was a slight improvement over the 44 percent approval in February. On other issues, views of Obama are not as rosy. More in the survey disapprove than approve of his handling of world affairs, the threat from IS, immigration, and health care. But on each measure, Obama has improved at least slightly since February. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. ___ Associated Press reporter Josh Lederman contributed to this report. ___ Online: Poll: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 08 AP-GfK Poll: Many dislike Clinton _ but more disdain Trump By LISA LERER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — In any other election year, more than half the country holding an unfavorable impression of a candidate for president would be cause for alarm. This is not a normal year. Fifty-five percent of Americans say they have a negative opinion of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the latest AP-GfK poll. Bu that’s not nearly as bad as how they view the leading candidate for the Republican nomination, Donald Trump. His unfavorable rating stands at an unprecedented 69 percent. The negative feelings for both are a harbinger of a general election contest that’s shaping up to be less about voters supporting the candidate of their choice, and more about their picking the one they dislike the least. “I don’t really feel like either one is that trustworthy,” said Devin Sternadre, 26, a student from northeastern Ohio. “Most of the elections that have happened in the past I’ve felt strongly about a candidate, and I just don’t this time. “But yeah, if it was held today I guess I would vote Clinton,” he said, with a deep sigh. “I just wish there were more choices.” Democratic strategists say Trump’s deep unpopularity has alleviated some of their concern over views of Clinton. While 55 percent of Americans have a “somewhat” or “very” unfavorable impression of the former secretary of state, that’s about the same number as those who have a “very unfavorable” opinion of Trump. As the campaign moves toward the general election, Democrats argue, the dynamic will shift from being a referendum on Clinton’s character to a choice between her and a Republican opponent. If that Republican is Trump, Democrats see an opportunity to unify their own party behind Clinton and make inroads with independents and Republicans. Nearly half of all registered voters say they would at least consider voting for Clinton, far more than say they are open to voting for Trump. Sixty-three percent say they definitely wouldn’t vote for Trump in a general election. Even in more historically conservative Southern states, where Trump swept the GOP primaries, voters are somewhat more likely to say they would at least consider Clinton. Half say they are open to her candidacy, and 39 percent to his. Voters are more likely to have a positive opinion of Clinton’s primary rival, Bernie Sanders, with only 38 percent saying they would definitely not vote for the Vermont senator. He trails far behind Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. Lara Robles, a Republican from Round Rock, Texas, said she would back Clinton, even though she has been surprised to find her views aligned with Trump on a number of issues. “I think she flip-flops on a lot of her views, but I would vote for Hillary,” said the mother of three. “I just don’t really like him as a person. I think he doesn’t have a filter on his mouth.” Clinton is not held in very high regard among the general public. Most Americans view her as not particularly compassionate, honest or likable. They have mixed feelings on her civility, decisiveness and competence. Half of all Americans say Clinton is “not at all” honest, with another 18 percent saying she’s slightly honest. That number mirrors views on Trump, with more than seven in ten saying the word honest describes him only slightly or not at all well. But on the other attributes, Clinton’s negative ratings are at least better than the overwhelmingly disapproving views Americans have of Trump. More than half say Clinton is not especially compassionate, and six in 10 say she’s only slightly or not at all likable. Eighty percent do not find Trump compassionate and three-quarters do not see him as likable. “What I want in a president is someone who wouldn’t cause trouble for the country. I think Donald Trump would,” said Steve Fantuzzi, a 54-year-old registered Republican in the Chicago suburbs. “Hillary’s OK. I don’t have a problem with her.” And unlike Trump, members of Clinton’s party largely like her. More than 7 in 10 Democratic voters have a favorable opinion, compared to 53 percent of Republicans who have a positive view of Trump. Just 17 percent of Democratic voters say they wouldn’t vote for Clinton in the general election, about the same share as wouldn’t back Sanders should he win the nomination. Thirty-one percent of Republicans say the same about Trump. Clinton remains the candidate viewed by the most Americans as able to win a general election, with 82 percent saying she could capture the White House. Just 6 in 10 say that of Sanders or Trump. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Follow Lisa Lerer and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/llerer and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 07 AP-GfK Poll: Americans overwhelmingly view Trump negatively By JULIE PACE and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — For Americans of nearly every race, gender, political persuasion and location, disdain for Donald Trump runs deep, saddling the Republican front-runner with unprecedented unpopularity as he tries to overcome recent campaign setbacks. Seven in 10 people, including close to half of Republican voters, have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It’s an opinion shared by majorities of men and women; young and old; conservatives, moderates and liberals; and whites, Hispanics and blacks — a devastatingly broad indictment of the billionaire businessman. Even in the South, a region where Trump has won GOP primaries decisively, close to 70 percent view him unfavorably. And among whites without a college education, one of Trump’s most loyal voting blocs, 55 percent have a negative opinion. Trump still leads the Republican field in delegates and has built a loyal following with a steady share of the Republican primary electorate. But the breadth of his unpopularity raises significant questions about how he could stitch together enough support in the general election to win the White House. It also underscores the trouble he may still face in the Republican race, which appears headed to a contested convention where party insiders would have their say about who will represent the GOP in the fall campaign. “He’s at risk of having the nomination denied to him because grass-roots party activists fear he’s so widely disliked that he can’t possible win,” said Ari Fleischer, a former adviser to President George W. Bush. Beyond their generally negative perception of Trump, large majorities also said they would not describe him as civil, compassionate or likable. On nearly all of these measures, Trump fared worse than his remaining Democratic or Republican rivals. Not that voters have all that much love for those rivals. But their negative perceptions don’t match the depth of the distaste for Trump. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is seeking to catch Trump in the Republican delegate count, is viewed unfavorably by 59 percent, while 55 percent have negative views of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Another problem for Trump is that his public perception seems to be getting worse. The number of Americans who view him unfavorably has risen more than 10 percentage points since mid-February, a two-month stretch that has included some of his biggest primary victories but also an array of stumbles that suggested difficulties with his campaign organization and a lack of policy depth. A survey conducted by Gallup in January found Trump’s unfavorable rating, then at 60 percent in the their polling, was already at a record high level for any major party nominee in their organization’s polling since the 1990′s. Candi Edie, a registered Republican from Arroyo Grande, California, is among those whose views on Trump have grown more negative. “At first, I thought he was great. He was bringing out a lot of issues that weren’t ever said, they were taboo,” Edie said. Now the 64-year-old feels Trump’s early comments masked the fact that he’s “such a bigot.” “I don’t know if he’s lost it or what,” she said. “He’s not acting presidential.”Trump’s unpopularity could provide an opening for Cruz, though he is loathed by many of his Senate colleagues and other party leaders. After a big win Tuesday in Wisconsin, Cruz is angling to overtake Trump at the July GOP convention. Clinton’s campaign believes Trump’s sky-high unfavorable ratings could offset some questions voters have about her own character, and perhaps even give her a chance to peel off some Republicans who can’t stomach a vote for the real estate mogul. Andrew Glaves, a “hard core” Republican from Bothell, Washington, said he might have to side with Clinton if Trump becomes the nominee, even though she’s out of step with his views on gun rights, his top election issue. “I’d be willing to take that as opposed to doing so much harm to the country’s reputation,” said Glaves, 29. More than 60 percent of all registered voters and 31 percent of Republicans said they definitely would not vote for Trump in the general election. One group that is still with him includes those who describe themselves as both Republicans and supporters of the tea party movement. Sixty-eight percent of them have a favorable view. Pennsylvania Republican Robert Paradis plans to vote for Trump in his state’s primary this month. The 76-year-old said that while Trump’s uneven temperament makes him cringe “all the time,” he’s hopeful the front-runner’s bluntness can shake up Washington. “He’s not a politician; he says it the way he feels it,” Paradis said. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,076 adults was conducted online March 31-April 4, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Follow Julie Pace and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/jpaceDC and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Mar 05 AP-GfK Poll: About half of Americans confident in tap water By EMILY SWANSON Only about half of Americans are very confident in the safety of their tap water, and a majority think lead contamination of the tap water in Flint, Michigan, indicates a more widespread problem, rather than an isolated problem. Lower-income Americans and those from minority groups are especially likely to worry about their water being contaminated, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Other findings include: WATER CONFIDENCE Just under half of Americans say they’re extremely or very confident in the safety of their own tap water, while another third are moderately confident and 18 percent are not confident at all. Whites (54 percent) are significantly more likely than blacks (40 percent) or Hispanics (28 percent) to be very confident in their tap water being safe. Six in 10 people living in households making more than $100,000 a year, but less than 4 in 10 of those making less than $50,000 a year, are very confident in the safety of their water. More than half of Americans say that Flint’s contamination is a sign of a more widespread problem, while about 4 in 10 say it’s an isolated incident. But relatively few — 21 percent — say they’re paying close attention to news about the situation in Flint; 38 percent say they’re following somewhat closely and 38 percent aren’t following closely. Blacks are significantly more likely than whites to think it’s a sign of a more widespread problem, and 32 percent of them are following the story very closely, compared with 20 percent of Hispanics and 19 percent of whites. ___ WATER CONSUMPTION Only about a third of Americans say they usually drink straight tap water at home, while another third drink filtered tap water and the remaining third drink bottled water. About 4 in 10 whites, but less than 2 in 10 African-Americans or Hispanics, say they drink straight tap water at home. Just over half of blacks and 4 in 10 Hispanics drink bottled water at home, compared to only a quarter of whites. Just four in 10 whites, but 6 in 10 non-whites say concerns about contamination are a major factor in their decision to drink bottled or filtered water. Six in 10 Americans in households making less than $50,000 a year, less than half of those making between $50,000 to $100,000, and just 4 in 10 of those making $100,000 cite concerns about contamination as reasons for not drinking tap water. ___ GOVERNMENT’S ROLE Half of Americans say the federal government should do more to ensure safe drinking water, while 40 percent say its involvement is about right and 7 percent think it should be doing less. Blacks (69 percent) and Hispanics (62 percent) are more likely than whites (44 percent) to want more federal government involvement. Those in households making less than $50,000 are more likely than those making more than $100,000 to say the federal government should do more, 57 percent to 40 percent. Those living in urban areas (60 percent) are more likely than those in suburban (50 percent) or rural areas (44 percent) to want more federal government involvement. Democrats (66 percent) are more likely than independents (50 percent) and Republicans (33 percent) to want the federal government to do more. Among Republicans, 51 percent say the current level of involvement is about right. When it comes to local government making the right decisions to ensure safe tap water, those in households making more than $100,000 are more likely than those making less than $50,000 to trust it a lot to handle the issue, 38 percent to 18 percent. Whites are more likely than nonwhites to have a lot of trust in local government, 30 percent to 23 percent. Democrats and Republicans are about equally likely to trust their local government. ___ POLL METHOD The AP-GfK Poll of 1,033 adults was conducted online Feb. 11-15, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 26 AP-GfK Poll: Outside money more potent issue than gender in 2016 By KEN THOMAS and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Clinton could be the nation’s first female president. Bernie Sanders warns of the role of super PACs in politics. While the two themes have become a big part of their primary contest, Americans view the issues very differently. Nineteen percent of Americans say they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate if the person is a woman, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, while 64 percent say a candidate’s gender has no bearing on their vote. In a sign of Sanders’ potent message on political money, the poll finds that 46 percent say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who doesn’t want outside groups supporting his or her campaign. Only 13 percent are less likely to vote for a candidate like that and 38 percent says it makes no difference. Sanders notes his opposition to super PACs at every event and rails against the influence of “millionaires and billionaires” in the political system. His robust online fundraising operation has drawn more than 4 million contributions since last spring and his average donation of $27 is so well-known among his supporters they often shout out the number when he talks about it during rallies. Clinton is more overt about her attempt to break the glass ceiling compared to her 2008 presidential campaign, when she emphasized her experience and toughness. She often tells audiences that she’s not asking for their vote “simply because I’m a woman” but because she would bring the views and perspective of a woman to the White House, pointing to the deal-making bipartisan work by female senators as an example of what it might offer to the country. “Hillary Clinton certainly doesn’t expect any woman to vote for her because she’s a woman. She wants people to vote for her because she’s going to make a difference in their lives,” said Clinton’s chief strategist, Joel Benenson, during an appearance Thursday at the American Enterprise Institute. The poll suggested that as Clinton navigates the primary against Sanders, she cannot rely heavily on her potential to become the first woman to win the White House. In the first three contests, Sanders has won an overwhelming support among young voters, including women, while Clinton has generated enthusiasm among older voters, including women from the Baby Boomer generation. Among Democrats, the poll showed that 28 percent said they’re more likely to vote for a female president, including 12 percent who said they’re much more likely to do so. But about 64 percent of Democrats said it made no difference. The poll also found that women were not significantly more likely than men to say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who is a woman. “There are other issues — qualifications, experience. That’s my point of view at this point,” said Maria Valdez-Fisher, 70, a poll respondent from Brownsville, Texas, who said she is volunteering for Clinton’s campaign ahead of the state’s March 1 primary. Citing the importance of electability, Valdez-Fisher said, “I believe she’s the only one who can beat a Republican as opposed to Bernie.” For Sanders, his anti-establishment message has touched a nerve at a time when many voters are wary of special interests and the influence of Wall Street. Among Democrats, 42 percent said that refusing outside groups’ support is a positive and 17 percent considered it to be a negative. The poll also showed businessman Donald Trump’s staying power, as 56 percent of Republicans surveyed said a candidate’s decision to refuse the support of outside groups would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. Trump has repeatedly argued that his vast wealth allows him to self-fund his campaign and not be beholden to outside interests. The poll found just 8 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. Joe Barreiro, 61, a Democrat from Joliet, Illinois, said he was leaning toward Sanders in his state’s primary next month in part because the Vermont senator has shunned outside money. “It’s out of hand because the amount of the money being spent on elections is unbelievable,” he said. “It’s not a quid pro quo but there are obvious influences when you supply that kind of money to a candidate.” __ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,033 adults was conducted online Feb. 11-15, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. __ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 25 AP-GfK Poll: Support shaky for Sanders ‘Medicare for all’ By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — At first blush, many Americans like the idea of “Medicare for all,” the government-run health system that’s a rallying cry for Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. But mention some of the trade-offs — from higher taxes to giving up employer coverage — and support starts to shrivel. That’s the key insight from an Associated Press-GfK poll released Thursday. The survey also found that people’s initial impressions of Sanders’ single-payer plan are more favorable than their views of President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul. A slim plurality of 39 percent supports replacing the private health insurance system with a single government-run, taxpayer-funded plan that would cover medical, dental, vision and long-term care, with 33 percent opposed. Only 26 percent say they support Obama’s hard-won health care law. Yet it’s only like an air kiss for “Berniecare.” Asked whether they would continue to support Sanders’ plan if their own taxes went up, under a third of initial supporters of the plan would keep backing it. About 4 out of 10 flipped to opposition. About the same share of initial backers would ditch single-payer if it meant that people had to give up employer coverage. Twenty-eight percent would continue to support it. Higher taxes and an end to employer coverage are both a given under the Sanders plan, which would replace private coverage with a taxpayer-funded program, while also offering more generous benefits such as no deductibles and no copayments, as well as coverage for long-term care. “That’s pie in the sky,” said Patricia Combs, a retired junior-high math teacher from Springboro, Ohio. “It sounds really good, but I don’t think it’s attainable … people would complain about their taxes being raised.” Elizabeth Medina of Chicago, an office manager not currently working, said she worries that quality would slip. “Overall it sounds terrific,” she said. “Yeah! Let’s go for it! But Europe and Canada have their problems with the single-payer system … it’s subpar.” Such second thoughts over far-reaching policy proposals are common, said Robert Blendon of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who tracks public opinion on health care. For example, a “flat tax” may sound appealingly simple as millions of people assemble their W-2 forms, 1099s, and lately those new health insurance forms for the annual tax-filing ritual. But it gets tricky for flat-tax advocates when they have to decide which popular tax deductions to eliminate and which to keep. “People say they believe in a principle, but when you describe the policy, it often loses support because they don’t like that there are side effects,” said Blendon. The poll found increasing doubts about single-payer health care when other potential consequences are considered, such as slower availability of new drugs and treatments, and longer waits for non-emergency services. Unlike higher taxes and having to give up employer coverage, those are not automatic consequences of converting to a government-run system. But such concerns would surely be raised as a President Sanders tried to lead the “political revolution” he promises. The poll found that 51 percent of initial single-payer backers would switch to opposition if it took longer for new drugs and treatments to become available. Only 14 percent would continue to support the plan. Such an outcome could happen if drugmakers were required to prove that new medications are therapeutically superior to existing ones. The current standard is that new drugs be safe and effective. Additionally, 47 percent of initial supporters would reconsider if “Medicare for all” meant longer wait times for non-emergency medical services. That could happen if budget-conscious administrators encouraged doctors and hospitals to be parsimonious in using high-tech imaging. Only 18 percent of poll respondents would continue to support the plan in that case. Overall, the poll found that health care remains a top issue for Americans, with three-fourths calling it extremely crucial or very important. Health care ranked behind the economy but ahead of foreign policy concerns as well as domestic issues like income inequality. Memo to those following the Republican presidential primary: Most people doubt that “Obamacare” will be repealed even if the GOP wins the White House. Forty-nine percent say the Affordable Care Act will be kept in place with changes, whether major or minor. Another 6 percent say a Republican president will not be able to make any changes to Obama’s law. “A lot of people who couldn’t have health care before now have health care, so I don’t think you are going to be able to just turn around and strip all those people of their health care,” said Lillian Duren, a recently retired psychiatric emergency nurse from Brooklyn, New York. “You need to fix what doesn’t work and keep moving.” The Republican presidential candidates have promised to repeal the health law, but they haven’t detailed how they would replace it. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,033 adults was conducted online Feb. 11-15, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 24 AP-GfK Poll: Voters show little interest in Bloomberg bid By JONATHAN LEMIRE and EMILY SWANSON Associated Press NEW YORK (AP) — By wide margins, Americans of all ideologies say they have no interest in voting former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg into the White House, suggesting that the billionaire media mogul would have significant headwinds should he mount a third-party bid for president. Just 7 percent of registered voters say they’d definitely vote for him, while 29 percent say they’d consider it, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. “Isn’t he the one who wanted to restrict the size of soda drinks?” asked Patricia Kowal, a 66-year-old Democrat who works on an assembly line and lives in Lublin, Wisconsin. “I think that’s intruding on people’s personal choices. It’s none of the government’s business.” A court blocked Bloomberg’s attempt to ban supersize takeout soda in 2014. Six in 10 Democrats and Republicans alike say they would not consider voting for Bloomberg in a general election, according to the poll. The total saying they wouldn’t vote for him is the highest level for any candidate in the field. But the survey also suggests that a Bloomberg candidacy could not be merely shrugged off by the two parties. With more than one-third at least open to backing him even before he’s started, Bloomberg may have the potential to become a spoiler in a close fall election. But a President Bloomberg? Opposition to Bloomberg’s possible candidacy is nearly uniform across the political spectrum, as 61 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters and 63 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they wouldn’t vote for him. Bloomberg has indicated that he’ll decide next month whether to jump in the race. His aides say the rise of the parties’ fringes has opened a centrist, pragmatic path that the fiscal conservative and social liberal could fill, but that he would only try if he saw a reasonable chance to win. One of the richest people in the United States, Bloomberg has decried the 2016 campaign as “a race to the extremes” and suggested he might run if Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders led the Democratic field and either Donald Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz led the Republicans. But more than half of the self-identified moderates in each party – and half of independents who don’t lean toward either party – won’t consider backing Bloomberg, the poll found. Some surveyed were quick to rule him out despite only knowing about a few of his signature policy initiatives. “I like the fact that he’s not a rabble-rouser,” said Hal Daume, 29, a Republican from Watchung, New Jersey, who admired Bloomberg’s 12 years as mayor and said he would support him. “He’s a quiet guy who gets the job done. I trust him and respect his principles.” Bloomberg, a Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent, oversaw a renaissance in New York, as crime plummeted and property values soared, and he’s become a leading advocate on climate change and gun control. His critics condemn his ties to Wall Street. Mark Corbin, who describes himself as a moderate Democrat and lives in suburban Philadelphia, seems to fit the profile of a potential Bloomberg voter. But he said he’s “not a big fan of third-party candidates because they are a waste of time.” “I’d be afraid he’d take away enough votes from the Democrats to let the Republicans win,” said Corbin, a 58-year-old business administrator. Just 16 percent of voters polled say that Bloomberg represents their positions on the issues they care about very or even somewhat well. But Bloomberg’s own pollster said he believes the findings “would be a good starting point” for a possible campaign. “This says that 36 percent of voters would consider voting for him before he has announced as a candidate or done anything resembling campaigning,” said Douglas Schoen. “That seems like a very reasonable place to begin.” The AP poll found that 44 percent of voters still say they don’t know much about Bloomberg, which Schoen believes shows room for his support to grow. But those voters who do say they know him aren’t enamored with him, according to the poll. Just 20 percent say they have a favorable opinion of him, while 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Democratic voters look at him more favorably (25 percent do) than Republicans do (16 percent). Bloomberg has instructed aides to research previous third-party runs and is said to be willing to spend up to $1 billion of his own fortune, estimated to be about $37 billion, to finance his campaign and potentially blanket the airwaves with ads that could boost his numbers. — The AP-GfK Poll of 1,033 adults was conducted online Feb. 11-15, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first randomly selected using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. — Swanson reported from Washington. — Follow Jonathan Lemire and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/JonLemire and http://twitter.com/EL-Swan Feb 19 AP Poll: GOP voters say Donald Trump can win in November COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Donald Trump has emerged as the front-runner for the GOP nomination by winning over roughly a third of Republicans in the early voting states and in preference polls, packing his rallies with men and women, evangelical Christians and military veterans, blue-collar workers and wealthy retirees. His critics have argued for months he’ll never be able to grow that wide-but-only-so-deep coalition by clashing with Pope Francis, attacking former President George W. Bush and skipping debates like he did once in Iowa. His negatives, they say, are just too high. By BILL BARROW and JILL COLVIN But a new AP-GfK poll finds registered Republicans and GOP-leaning voters put Trump at the top of the still-unwieldy GOP field when it comes to which candidate fits best with their stand on the issues. They give Trump the best marks for competence and decisiveness. Far more Republicans than not say they’d vote for Trump in the general election, and 86 percent of Republican voters think he can win in November — giving him a 15 percentage point advantage over his nearest rival. If the number of Republican candidates shrinks as expected after Saturday’s primary in South Carolina, Tuesday’s Nevada caucuses and on Super Tuesday on March 1, the Trump coalition, it would appear, has plenty of room to grow. “He understands what the problems are and he conveys that in a way that attracts blacks, whites and Democrats and Jews and Christians and independents and a lot of conservatives and a lot of evangelicals,” said Ed McMullen, a Trump co-chairman in South Carolina. “When you really assess the base of who’s out there for Mr. Trump and why it’s there, it’s there because he’s got the message that they’re looking for.” Predictions of Trump’s inevitable political demise have arrived almost daily since the brash real estate mogul jumped into the White House race. They came again after last weekend’s GOP debate, when Trump aggressively went after Bush as a president who failed to protect the country from terrorism. “The World Trade Center came down during the reign of George Bush,” he said. “He kept us safe? That is not safe.” Barry Wynn, a national fundraising leader for Bush’s brother, Trump rival Jeb Bush, said the moment “crystallized that if you’re for Trump, you’re still for Trump.” “But it also raised negatives among everybody else,” he said. “Eventually you have to pay for that.” Indeed, only 42 percent of Republicans consider Trump likable and only 32 percent consider him compassionate. The AP-GfK poll found Trump and Jeb Bush are nearly tied as the candidates with the highest unfavorable ratings within their own party, with only 4 in 10 GOP voters seeing Trump in a positive light. By comparison, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio leads the field in terms of favorability and likability. But he’s yet to come close to the top of the pack, perhaps because those same voters put “likability” at the bottom of their list of priorities, with just half of GOP respondents calling it important. Competence and decisiveness, the measures on which Trump dominates, were important to more than 9 out of 10 Republican voters. Joan Brewer, a 70-year-old retiree from Garden City, South Carolina, is an evangelical Christian voter leaning toward casting her ballot on Saturday for Trump. She acknowledged “that mouth may get him into trouble,” but she may be willing to look past his penchant for controversy to get the leader she thinks the country needs. “This country is in trouble,” Brewer said. “I want it to be Trump. We need it to be Trump.” McMullen rejected the impression that Trump’s supporters are only a bunch of “lower-income, angry white men” and “rednecks,” pointing to a series of campaign events in recent days at exclusive golf resorts and gated communities in South Carolina that attracted wealthy retirees and business leaders. “The moment he started having events that brought 5,000 or 10,000 people in a room, you had African-Americans, you had independents,” he said. “I mean, it was always 50-50 men-women.” While the AP-GfK poll suggests Trump can broaden his support to win the nomination, it also suggests his coalition has some limits. Among all registered voters nationally, 6 in 10 say they have an unfavorable opinion of Trump and 54 percent say they wouldn’t even consider voting for him in a general election. Perhaps most troubling for Trump is that he finishes at the bottom of the GOP field among Americans who are Hispanic, with just 16 percent viewing him favorably. Those numbers will almost surely have to improve for Trump to be a competitive general election candidate. Hispanic voters are expected to grow to close to 12 percent of the electorate in November. Trump’s most ardent backers, however, have faith he will expand his appeal. “I don’t think he represents a particular side of the aisle,” said Susan Simon, a resident of the Sun City retirement community in Bluffton, South Carolina, and a Democrat who intends to vote for Trump on Saturday. “I hope he can get rid of that gridlock and get things accomplished and not fighting that it has to be a Republican win or a Democratic win. It should be a U.S.A. win.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,033 adults, including 345 Republican or Republican leaning registered voters, was conducted online Feb. 11-15, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and is plus or minus 5.8 percentage points for Republican voters. ___ Associated Press news survey specialist Emily Swanson contributed to this report from Washington. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 19 AP-GfK Poll: Voters increasingly see Sanders as electable By LISA LERER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — The more Democrats learn about Bernie Sanders, the more they appear to like him. A greater percentage of Democratic registered voters view the Vermont senator as likable, honest, competent and compassionate than they did just two months ago, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Seventy-two percent now believe he could win the general election, a 21 percentage point increase from the last time the survey was conducted in December. The findings underscore the challenge facing Hillary Clinton as she enters the Democratic contest’s pivotal spring stretch, when primaries across the country mean that many of the party’s voters will finally get their say on her candidacy. Clinton’s campaign has argued that as voters learned more about his record, Sanders will begin to lose support. Instead, it seems that as Sanders has gotten more scrutiny, support for him has only grown. While Clinton continues to be the Democratic candidate who’s most well-liked within her own party, Sanders is gaining on her. Woodrow Benford, 58, who lives outside Minneapolis, says he didn’t know much about Sanders before he announced his presidential bid, but now Benford plans to caucus for him on March 1. “Some changes need to be made, some major changes — he’s addressing them,” he said. “I like Hillary Clinton; don’t get me wrong. But she’d never say she’s going to break up the big banks.” Though Sanders is gaining ground with Democrat voters, Clinton maintains a commanding lock on the party’s leadership. An Associated Press survey of superdelegates, who are influential in picking the nominee, found that 449 of the party insiders back Clinton, while only 19 support Sanders. If they continue to back Clinton overwhelmingly — they can change their minds— Sanders would have to win the remaining primary contests by a landslide to catch up. Seventy-four percent of Democratic registered voters say they have a favorable view of Clinton, compared with 64 percent who say the same of Sanders. That’s a 10-point increase for Sanders from December, when 54 percent of Democratic registered voters held a favorable opinion of him. But 16 percent of Democratic registered voters still say they don’t yet know enough about Sanders to form an opinion. “I know a lot of my Democratic friends are telling me, ‘Feel the Bern,’ but I can’t say that I like him or dislike him,” said Mona Lamberson, 59, of North Philadelphia. “He’s kind of new to the game.” Since December, Sanders has gained on other measures, too. Six in 10 say he’s at least somewhat decisive, after half said so in the earlier poll. And 64 percent call him competent, after 55 percent said so in December. Sanders is also more likely to be viewed as very or somewhat honest than he was in December, 64 percent to 56 percent. On that issue, he has a nine percentage point edge over Clinton, who’s viewed as honest by 55 percent of Democrats. Sanders is the only candidate in either party who’s viewed as somewhat or very compassionate, honest and likable by at least half of all registered voters, and has a significant advantage over Clinton among all voters on each of those measures. Just 30 percent of all voters consider Clinton honest. “I was going to bite my tongue and vote for Hillary, but I never really trusted her,” said Robert Stone, a 59-year-old from Hilton Head, South Carolina, who already cast an absentee ballot for Sanders. “Every time she opens her mouth, I can’t help but think she’s lying about something.” But the poll also finds that Clinton maintains a variety of advantages over Sanders. Nine in 10 Democratic registered voters say they think she could win a general election, a 16-point margin over Sanders. She has a 13-point advantage on being viewed as at least somewhat decisive, and a 15-point advantage on being viewed as competent. Democratic voters are slightly more likely to say that Clinton represents their positions on the issues very or somewhat well than say the same about Sanders, 73 percent to 63 percent. Minority and women voters appeared more likely to describe her as likable and inspiring. “He’s a very nice boy, but I think it’s all pie in the sky, what he has to offer,” said Renee Gold, 83, of Sarasota, Florida. “Clinton is strong, I admire her and I think if she were to be elected, it would be a good presidency.” Clinton and Sanders are each viewed positively by about 4 in 10 registered voters overall. But while all registered voters are about evenly divided in their opinions of Sanders, more than half have an unfavorable view of Clinton. Still, 52 percent of registered voters say they would at least consider voting for each Democrat in a general election, putting them at least slightly higher than every Republican candidate but Marco Rubio on that measure. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,033 adults, including 389 Democratic or Democratic-leaning registered voters, was conducted online Feb. 11-15, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, and is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points for Democratic voters. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Jan 30 AP-GfK Poll: Americans blame politics for negative outlook By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s almost a given these days that most Americans are upset about the direction of the country. But it’s not always clear what’s driving that sentiment. According to a recent Associated Press-GfK poll, Americans express a wide variety of reasons why they’re not too keen on the way things in the country are going, but one stands out above the rest: dissatisfaction with politics and how the government is working. The survey, conducted in December, asked Americans to express in their own words why they think things in the country are on the right or wrong track. Some things to know about what Americans think about the direction of the country from the AP-GfK poll: POLITICS DRIVING NEGATIVE VIEWS Negative sentiments about the direction of the country appear disproportionately driven by frustration with politics and the political system, the AP-GfK poll finds. Forty-one percent of all those who said the country is heading in the wrong direction, including 51 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats, listed at least one political reason for their negative outlook, far more than listed an economic (14 percent) or foreign policy (17 percent) reason. Fifteen percent of Americans named President Barack Obama as a reason for the country’s negative direction, making the president the single most-mentioned reason. Nearly 3 in 10 Republicans mentioned Obama. An additional 6 percent of Americans cited poor leadership in general. Five percent of all respondents mentioned the government or politicians more generally. And there was political finger-pointing: 6 percent of Democrats named Republicans or conservatives as a reason for the country’s negative direction; 6 percent of Republicans blamed Democrats or liberals other than the president. The top nonpolitical reason listed by Americans who said the country is headed in the wrong direction was terrorism or radical Islam, cited by 11 percent overall — 14 percent of Republicans and 11 percent of Democrats. NEGATIVE VIEWS ON THE RISE For years, a large majority of the American public has said the country is headed in the wrong direction. In the December AP-GfK poll, 74 percent said so, up from 63 percent who thought that in October. There’s a longstanding political divide on this matter. In the December poll, 9 in 10 Republicans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, while fewer than than 6 in 10 Democrats say the same. Among independents, 8 in 10 say so. That divide has persisted throughout Obama’s presidency, providing further evidence for dissatisfaction with politics shaping views about the country’s direction. ___ ECONOMY TOPS FOR RIGHT DIRECTION For the 26 percent of Americans who feel good about the way things are going, the biggest driving force behind that appears to be the economy, the AP-GfK survey finds. Four in 10 cited the economy or jobs. Still, 17 percent mentioned political reasons for thinking the country is headed in the right direction, too — 7 percent credited the president. ___ PERSONAL OUTLOOKS POSITIVE While few see the country as on the right track, a vast majority of Americans —76 percent — say things are headed in the right direction for themselves and their families. Just 22 percent say things are headed in the wrong direction. On this, there’s no political divide — large majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents like how things are going in their own lives. For Americans saying things are going well for them personally, the top reasons are financial security, listed by 18 percent, jobs (17 percent), family or love (13 percent) and religious reasons (10 percent). Seven percent mentioned personal responsibility, while 6 percent mentioned hard work. For those saying things aren’t going so well for them, the top reason was personal finances or jobs. Nine percent blamed politics for feeling negative about the direction of their own lives. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online Dec. 3-7, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 26 AP-Times Square Poll: Shootings Weighed on Americans in 2015 By Verena Dobnik, Associated Press Mass shootings and attacks weighed heavily on the minds of Americans in 2015, according to a new poll that found most believe this year was worse for the world than last year.A look at the key findings of The Associated Press-Times Square Alliance poll: ——— PREOCCUPIED BY MASS SHOOTINGS Americans say the most important events of 2015 were a string of mass shootings, including the attacks in San Bernardino, California, and Paris, plus Islamic State group atrocities. Fifty-seven percent of those polled say this year was worse than the last year for the world as a whole, up from the 38 percent asked that question a year ago. Only 10 percent believe 2015 was a better year than 2014, while 32 percent think there wasn’t much difference. Americans also are much less likely than they were a year ago to believe that the current year was better for the United States — only 17 percent compared with 30 percent a year ago. Thirty-seven percent think this year was worse for the country than last year, while 44 percent don’t think there was much difference. On a personal level, fewer than a third (29 percent) believe 2015 was better for them than 2014, while 21 percent feel it was worse, compared with 15 percent in 2014. Interviewed separately from the poll, Jason Pruitt, a 43-year-old corporate pilot from the Detroit area, said security concerns were a factor in deciding whether to take his wife and daughter along on a Christmas trip to New York. “We were thinking about not coming this year, because of everything that’s going on,” Pruitt said. But they went ahead “because when you change your life, the terrorists win.” ——— THREE EVENTS SHARE THE TOP SPOT Of those polled, 68 percent listed mass shootings in the U.S. as very or extremely important news events this year, including the one in San Bernardino that heightened fears of domestic terrorism, plus shootings in Charleston, South Carolina; Roseburg, Oregon; and Chattanooga, Tennessee. Close behind, at 64 percent, were the Paris attacks that ushered in 2015, targeting Charlie Hebdo and the Jewish market, then the Bataclan concert hall and other city sites in November. And third, at 63 percent, came the Islamic State group’s various far-flung atrocities. Commenting on the completed poll was 32-year-old J.P. Fury, working in a food truck in Times Square. “At this point, I’m numb to all of it,” he said. “This is nothing new. Every week there’s a new shooting somewhere in America, and there’s a new terrorist attack somewhere around the world.” ——— OTHER ISSUES Domestically, 44 percent of those polled rate as extremely or very important the deaths of blacks in encounters with police that sparked “Black Lives Matter” protests in Baltimore and Chicago. Another 44 percent rate the deal reached to curtail Iran’s nuclear program as important, and nearly as many (42 percent) Europe’s migrant crisis. Only 40 percent said the presidential race was important to them, with the Paris climate change conference right behind (at 38 percent), followed by the Supreme Court’s legalization of gay marriage (36 percent) and the Cuban-U.S. thaw (30 percent). ——— RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR Most Americans plan to celebrate New Year’s Eve either at home (48 percent) or at the home of a friend or family member (20 percent). Nine percent plan to be at a bar, restaurant or organized event, while just under a quarter (22 percent) don’t plan to celebrate at all. A majority of Americans (56 percent) will watch the New Year’s Eve events in Times Square, and 95 percent of those will see it on TV. Those findings were similar to those of the past two years. ——— THE YEAR IN POP CULTURE No single pop culture event of 2015 stands out, with fewer than four in 10 Americans rating any as memorable. The eagerly awaited “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” was memorable only to 37 percent of those polled, and forgettable to 34 percent. Bill Cosby’s legal woes were memorable to 36 percent; forgettable to 33 percent. Bruce Jenner becoming Caitlyn Jenner, with a highly orchestrated publicity campaign, was forgettable to 52 percent, and Taylor Swift’s world tour to 55 percent. ——— METHODOLOGY The AP-Times Square Alliance Poll of 1,020 adults was conducted online Dec. 11-13, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll is a cooperative effort between AP and the organizers of the Times Square New Year’s Eve Celebration, the Times Square Alliance and Countdown Entertainment. The Alliance is a nonprofit group that seeks to promote Times Square, and Countdown Entertainment represents the owners of One Times Square and the New Year’s Eve Ball Drop. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ——— Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 22 AP-GfK Poll: Support for legal abortion at highest level in 2 years By NANCY BENAC and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Support for legal abortion in the U.S. has edged up to its highest level in the past two years, with an Associated Press-GfK poll showing an apparent increase in support among Democrats and Republicans alike over the last year. Nearly six in 10 Americans — 58 percent — now think abortion should be legal in most or all cases, up from 51 percent who said so at the beginning of the year, according to the AP-GfK survey. It was conducted after three people were killed last month in a shooting at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado. While support for legal abortion edged up to 40 percent among Republicans in this month’s poll, from 35 percent in January, the survey found that the GOP remains deeply divided on the issue: Seven in 10 conservative Republicans said they want abortion to be illegal in most or all cases; six in 10 moderate and liberal Republicans said the opposite. Count 55-year-old Victor Remdt, of Gurnee, Illinois, among the conservatives who think abortion should be illegal in most cases. He’s adopted, and says he “wouldn’t be here talking” if his birth mother had opted for abortion rather than adoption. Remdt, who’s looking for work as a commercial driver, said he’d like to see abortion laws become more restrictive but adds that he’s not a one-issue voter on the matter. John Burk, a conservative Republican from Houston, Texas, is among those whose position on abortion is somewhere in the middle. He reasons that banning the procedure would only lead to “back-alley abortions.” But he’s open to restrictions such as parental notification requirements and a ban on late-term abortions. Burk, a 59-year-old computer programmer, said he tracks his beliefs on the issue to his libertarian leanings and the fact that he’s not religious. He doesn’t see the nation coming to a resolution on the divisive issue any time soon, saying hard-liners on both sides of the question are entrenched and “they’re never going to change.” Among Democrats, 76 percent of poll respondents now think abortion should be legal all or most of the time, up slightly from 69 percent in January. Independents are more evenly split, with 54 percent saying abortion should be legal all or most of the time, edging up from 43 percent in January. For Larry Wiggins, who describes himself as a liberal Democrat from Henderson, North Carolina, legal access to abortion should be — but isn’t — a settled matter. “A woman has the right to decide what she wants to do with her body,” he said flatly. “I don’t think the government has the right to interfere.” Nefertiti Durant, a 45-year-old independent voter from Columbia, Maryland, sees abortion as more complex matter, calling it “kind of a Catch-22.” She thinks a woman should have the right to choose abortion but she’s “not so keen on the fact that just anybody can go and have an abortion.” She worries that young people may not understand the effects of the procedure, and the “deep issues” that go along with it. Still, she said, abortion is legal and “let’s just leave it at that. … I don’t think it’s a matter of discussion.” It undoubtedly will be up for discussion, though, in a presidential election year. All of the Republican presidential candidates say they favor restricting abortion rights. The Democratic candidates support broad abortion rights. Interest in the issue picked up this year after anti-abortion activists began releasing undercover videos they said showed Planned Parenthood personnel negotiating the sale of fetal organs. Planned Parenthood said any payments were legally permitted reimbursements for the costs of donating organs to researchers, and it has since stopped accepting even that money. Republicans have sought to cut off federal funding for Planned Parenthood, and several GOP-governed states have tried to block Medicaid funding to the organization. Overall, the poll found, 45 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Planned Parenthood, and 30 percent have an unfavorable opinion. A quarter said they don’t know enough about the organization to say. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online Dec. 3-7, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Nancy Benac and Emily Swanson on Twitter at http://twitter.com/nbenac and http://www.twitter.com/EL_Swan Dec 17 AP-GfK Poll: Tough immigration plans not a must for GOPers By LAURIE KELLMAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Retired postal clerk Jerry Wilson likes what he hears from GOP presidential hopefuls about overturning President Barack Obama’s executive order easing deportation policies against people in the U.S. illegally. But he’ll choose a Republican presidential nominee based on other issues — keeping American companies from moving overseas, for one. Keeping would-be attackers out of the country, for another. “America comes first when you’re the president of the United States,” the Batavia, Ohio, resident, 67, said. “You do everything you can to keep America safe. What about migrants, people who are already here illegally? That’s not a do-or-die issue to me.” For all of the ferocity and double-speak at the GOP debate over immigration reform, most Republicans like Wilson say the issue isn’t a decisive factor in their vote for president. Even among conservative Republicans, more than half — 56 percent — say they either prefer a candidate who would keep Obama’s immigration action in place or that they can imagine voting for a Republican presidential hopeful who would. The survey shows that Obama’s immigration actions last year, which allowed some immigrants to apply for temporary legal status, are a particular sticking point for Republicans. Seventy-three percent of them say they prefer to support the candidate who would undo those steps taken by this president, who is deeply unpopular within their party. More broadly, more Americans — regardless of their political affiliation — favor than oppose a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who are in the United States illegally, the poll shows. Even among Republicans, — 4 in 10 of whom oppose making citizenship an option for people in the country illegally, it doesn’t seem to be a make-or-break issue in their choice for president. Four in 10 conservative Republicans and 3 in 10 tea party Republicans favor a path to citizenship for immigrants already in the country illegally. Notably, the results from the Dec. 3 through Dec. 7 survey are unchanged since the questions were last asked in April — even after months of strong rhetoric by Republican presidential candidates, including front-runner Donald Trump, who proposes deporting the 11.5 million people in the country illegally. The survey results are powerful data points for the GOP candidates with little more than six weeks to go before the first votes are cast in Iowa. Republican Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, both children of Cuban immigrants, are locked in an extraordinary battle for second place in the nomination fight, in large part over their positions on immigration. Rubio’s rivals had used his 2013 comprehensive immigration reform bill to cast him as a supporter of a path to citizenship for those here illegally. He hasn’t backed off that idea but has abandoned the notion of comprehensive reform on the complex issue and emphasizes border security first. Cruz, meanwhile, is casting himself as an opponent to “legalization.” He proposed amendments to Rubio’s bill that would have massively increased legal immigration — but mostly, he says, to try to kill Rubio’s legislation. While illegal immigration may not be a deal-breaker for Republicans on a national scale, few issues are more hotly contested on the ground in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Some GOP conservatives often lash out at allowing people to stay in the U.S. illegally, producing an environment where Republican candidates like Rubio and Bush have been forced to distance themselves from their own more forgiving policies in the past. But the poll shows immigration may not be the most pressing issue on Americans’ minds once voting begins in the GOP primary contest. “No candidate fits everybody’s view,” said Terry Arnell of Tower Lakes, Ill., a retired insurance company manager who right now likes Trump. So, what will be Arnell’s priorities come election day? “Gun rights. Securing our borders and certainly, securing as much as we can within our borders,” Arnell, 63, said. “I think it’s very important that we secure our borders now. Then, we can worry about the other illegals here.” The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online Dec. 3-7, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 14 Americans want to get tougher with the Islamic State By KEN DILANIAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — After terrorist attacks at home and abroad, more Americans than ever — but still less than half — support sending U.S. ground troops to fight the Islamic State, according to a new Associated Press-GfK Poll. A large majority also want a clearer explanation from President Barack Obama about his strategy to defeat the group. The percentage of Americans who favor deploying U.S. troops to fight IS militants has risen from 31 percent to 42 percent over the past year in AP-GfK polling, although it isn’t clear whether those respondents favor a small contingent or a larger ground force that might engage in another protracted Middle Eastern war. Other national surveys in recent weeks have found similar or greater support for American ground troops. Obama recently dispatched about 50 special operations forces to coordinate the fight in Syria, adding to the more than 3,000 troops already in Iraq. But he and most other politicians oppose sending a large American contingent to augment the U.S.-led coalition air campaign. Most Republicans running for president have not called for that, either, although Donald Trump recently said he would support 10,000 troops, a figure originally floated by South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has pledged to keep American troops out of Syria, saying she would resist sending forces to fight Islamic militants even if there’s another terrorist attack within the U.S. In the poll, 56 percent of Americans said the U.S. military response to the Islamic State group has not gone far enough, up from 46 percent since October 2014. Six in 10 Republicans, but only about 3 in 10 Democrats or independents, support sending ground troops, the poll showed. Analysts say the public desire for more action reflects growing anxiety over the Islamic State after its attack in Paris, and the shootings in San Bernardino, California, carried out by a couple apparently inspired by the group. There is also widespread unease about Obama’s strategy, which envisions a long, slow campaign of airstrikes, diplomacy, training, financial sanctions and other measures. White House officials say Obama recognizes the need to make the case for his strategy. The president gave an Oval Office speech last week, visited the Pentagon Monday and is expected to visit a counterterrorism facility later in the week. But Obama has pointedly made the case against a U.S. ground invasion. The U.S. military could clear the Islamic State from its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria, but IS troops would return unless a local ground force was available to keep order, he said Nov, 16, after the attacks in Paris. “Let’s assume that we were to send 50,000 troops into Syria,” Obama said. “What happens when there’s a terrorist attack generated from Yemen? Do we then send more troops into there? Or Libya, perhaps? ” Most interviews for the AP-GfK poll, which was conducted Dec. 3-7, were completed before last Sunday’s Oval Office address, but the survey found the president had an uphill battle to allay Americans’ concerns. Just 28 percent in the survey said Obama had clearly explained the United States’ goals in fighting the Islamic State, while 68 percent said he had not. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents said the president had not clearly explained the goals, and even among Democrats 51 percent agreed. Daniel Byman, a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said Obama’s methodical approach is unsatisfying to Americans but they would be even more displeased if the U.S. troops were dying in Syria. “Sure, right now, Americans are baying for blood, but if three years down the road, the U.S. has 50,000 troops in Iraq and Syria and we’re taking casualties, then American are going to be saying, ‘Why did people do stupid things and put American troops at risk.” Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, has himself conducted surveys showing some support for U.S. ground troops. But he doesn’t believe the public wants an all-out invasion. “Iraq syndrome is still hanging there,” he said, referring to a hangover from the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, “and the public doesn’t really think that war is going to solve the ISIS problem.” One AP poll respondent, Carl Ripperton, a retired executive living near Memphis, Tennessee, said he favored a U.S. invasion if American generals determined that one was needed to defeat the Islamic State. “It’s gotta be done,” said Ripperton, 76, a National Guard veteran and self-professed political independent. “The bombing doesn’t seem to have done anything. I would think if we just went in there and wiped them out that would take care of it. I mean they might pop up again, but at least we’d take care of this group.” The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 11 AP-GfK Poll: Republican voters on Trump: no compassion, no problem By STEVE PEOPLES and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican voters don’t think Donald Trump is likable. They don’t think he’s compassionate. And many don’t consider him particularly honest. But he’s overwhelmingly viewed as decisive and competent. And that’s what matters most — at least for now — to Republicans. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that 8 in 10 Republican registered voters call Trump very or somewhat decisive. That’s top in the field for the businessman, whose blunt style was featured for years on reality TV. At the same time, it finds much resistance to him from the country at large. The poll was taken before he called for a ban on Muslims coming into the United States and does not reflect the furor that has turned some leading Republican figures, at least, against him. “I wouldn’t give him a 10 on the compassionate scale,” said poll respondent Lisa Barker, 55, of Worcester, Massachusetts, an unaffiliated voter who says she’s all in for Trump. “I’d probably put him in the middle. But I love the fact that he’s decisive.” She’s not alone. After rocketing to the front of the Republican pack in the 2016 race for president, he’s stayed there for months with a brash approach that has captivated a healthy slice of the GOP electorate. People frustrated with the status quo appear to love his style — even when his policies draw condemnation and his facts are wrong. Trump drew widespread criticism from within his own party and from leaders around the world this week after calling for the ban on Muslim entry to the United States. In the new national survey, three-quarters of Republicans said Trump would have a chance of winning the general election if nominated, significantly more than say so of any other GOP candidate. “Donald Trump is saying what 95 percent of the people of this country, that belong to this country, that were born and raised in this country, feel and think,” said 83-year-old J.W. Stepp, a registered Republican who lives in Phoenix, Arizona. “Donald Trump is exactly what this country needs,” Stepp said. “He’s probably the most decisive person in the race.” But the AP-GfK poll also offers cause for long-term concern for such Trump loyalists. Beyond Republicans, 58 percent of all Americans have an unfavorable view of him. That’s the worst favorable rating of any candidate in either party, a reminder that decisiveness alone may not be enough to help Trump prevail in next fall’s general election if he represents the GOP on the ballot. Yet he appears to be well-positioned in his party’s nomination contest, which begins with the Iowa caucuses in less than eight weeks. The early voting contests tend to feature the GOP’s most passionate voters, a small but vocal group that has been excited about Trump’s candidacy. While Trump is considered the most decisive of the five GOP candidates tested, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz earned the next highest mark with 56 percent calling him very or somewhat decisive. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson had 53 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 52 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 42 percent. By contrast, just 31 percent of Republican voters say Trump is at least somewhat compassionate, and 43 percent say he is at least somewhat likable. Carson, who’s been slipping in recent polls, is viewed as most compassionate and likable, with 7 in 10 Republican voters saying each word describes him at least somewhat well. Unfortunately for Carson, likeability isn’t among the most desired attributes among Republicans in this campaign. Nine in 10 Republican voters say decisiveness and competence are extremely or very important in a candidate for president in 2016, according to the poll. Just 6 in 10 rate compassion as that important, while only half say it’s important for a candidate to be likable. Nine in 10 Republican voters also say that honesty is an important quality in a presidential candidate, although they’re split on whether that’s a description that applies to Trump. Fifty-five percent say “honest” describes him very or somewhat well and 43 percent say it describes him only slightly or not at all. Bush, Rubio and Cruz don’t do much better. Carson, by contrast, is viewed as at least somewhat honest by 66 percent of Republican voters. Trump has repeatedly made false or dubious assertions, such as his debunked claim to have seen thousands of Muslims in New Jersey cheering the 9/11 attacks. But that doesn’t seem to matter to the Republican electorate, which is deeply skeptical of the media. Two-thirds of Republican voters believe media coverage is generally biased against Trump, more than say so of the other top candidates. Fifty-four percent say media coverage is biased against Carson, close to half say that about Bush and Cruz, and 40 percent say that about Rubio. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults, including 333 Republican and Republican leaning registered voters, was conducted online Dec. 3-7, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 08 AP Poll: Republicans wary of immigration from Middle East By JULIE PACE and EMILY SWANSON Dec. 8, 2015 5:09 PM EST With his call for blocking Muslims from entering the United States, Donald Trump may be tapping into deep concern among Republican voters about allowing Middle Eastern immigrants into the country, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. In particular, a majority of Republicans see a high risk that refugees from Syria will commit acts of religious and political violence in the U.S., the poll finds. The poll was conducted before Trump made his contentious proposal on Monday, so it does not reflect public opinion about the plan. But it indicates a suspicion of newcomers from the region where Muslims predominate and follows last week’s shootings in San Bernardino, California. The AP-GfK survey found widespread antipathy toward immigration from the Middle East, with 54 percent of Americans saying the U.S. takes in too many people from the volatile region. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of respondents held that view, compared with about half of independents and more than a third of Democrats. While the latter numbers could point to general election risks for Republicans in taking a hard line against Muslims, there appear to be benefits in the GOP primaries. Tea party backers, whites and older Americans — all important voting groups in Republican presidential primaries — were more likely to say immigration from the Middle East is too high. Among evangelical Christians, who wield significant power in the kickoff Iowa caucus, 63 percent of respondents held that view. Officials say the couple who carried out the California attack — a U.S.-born man and Pakistani-born woman — had been radicalized for some time, with the wife pledging her allegiance to the Islamic State group. The killings came just three weeks after Islamic State militants claimed responsibility for attacks across Paris that killed 130, sparking fears about the extremist group’s reach in the West. Since then, Republican presidential candidates have escalated their rhetoric about Muslims, though Trump’s call for banning them from entering the country crossed a line for most of his rivals and many other Republicans who condemned his proposal as out of step with American values. Trump’s proposal focused on all Muslims, not just those coming from the Middle East. The GOP front-runner previously called for banning all refugees from Syria, where ISIS has a stronghold. Polls conducted in November found few Americans in favor of an explicit religious test for refugees from Syria — such as giving preference to Syrian Christians — if they are allowed into the United States. For some Americans already wary of Middle Eastern immigrants, Trump’s proposal could seem like an appropriate next step. “For now, maybe we have to hold up because we have to figure it out,” said June Toler, a 51-year-old from Evans, Georgia. Toler considers herself an independent but is interested in Trump as well as GOP candidates Ben Carson and Marco Rubio. Charles Chapman, 75, of Buffalo, New York, wants to go even further, halting all immigration into the U.S. for a year while officials work out plans to ensure no potential terrorists can enter. “It seems like anyone can walk into the United States,” said Chapman, a Democrat. “The immigration policy needs to be stopped for a while and see what’s going on and then come up with a plan.” However, several poll respondents who worry about Middle Eastern immigrants said in interviews afterward that Trump’s ban on Muslims goes too far. “Over the top,” said Matthew Tisdale, a 27-year-old Republican from Metairie, Louisiana. “I don’t believe we should ban everyone who is following the Muslim religion. That would completely take away from our stance on freedom of religion.” Janice Dillard, 64, from Euclid, Ohio, said that instead of blocking Muslims, the government should focus on improving security screening for those seeking to come. She also believes there should be more focus on keeping people from being radicalized over the Internet, which has become a potent recruiting tool for the Islamic State and other extremist groups. “I think this has more to do with the Internet than people coming into this country to do something,” Dillard said. In 2014, the U.S. offered visas to more than 600,000 people from the Middle East, as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan, countries where the U.S. also has concerns about terrorism. That’s fewer than the 1.4 million visas granted in 2014 to Mexicans alone. Republican presidential candidates have raised particular concerns about Syrians seeking to come to the U.S. as refugees. President Barack Obama has said the U.S. will take 10,000 refugees fleeing that country’s civil war next year. The recent attacks have sparked fears that terrorists could try to sneak into Europe or the U.S. as part of the flow of refugees, although none of the perpetrators appear to have used that strategy. The AP-GfK poll found that 49 percent of Americans — including 70 percent of Republicans — see an extremely or somewhat high risk of Syrian refugees committing acts of religious or political violence in the U.S. Among Democrats, 3 in 10 hold that view. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online Dec. 3-7, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Nov 05 AP-GfK Poll: Americans souring on Obama’s Islamic State plan By JOSH LEDERMAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are souring on President Barack Obama’s approach to fighting the Islamic State, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that also found deep pessimism about U.S. prospects for success in Afghanistan and uncertainty about Obama’s plan to leave thousands of troops there when he leaves office. More than 6 in 10 now reject Obama’s handling of the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, where Obama has been escalating the U.S. military’s involvement in a bid to break a vexing stalemate. Support for his approach has followed a downward trajectory since the U.S. formed its coalition to fight the group in late 2014. Last September, Americans were roughly split, yet disapproval has jumped 8 percentage points just since January. Those concerns mirror broader trepidation about Obama’s management of foreign policy, which garnered approval from just 40 percent of Americans in the AP-GfK poll. They come as Obama struggles to demonstrate progress advancing U.S. interests in the Middle East, where Obama hoped to disentangle the U.S. military after a decade-plus of war but will likely leave three military conflicts ongoing when his presidency ends in 2017. Complicating Obama’s efforts to strike the right balance, his critics include both those who feel he’s betrayed his pledge to keep U.S. troops out of combat in Iraq and Syria and those who argue exactly the opposite: that Obama is pursuing half-measures that put U.S. troops at risk but are too paltry to make a decisive difference. “ISIS is literally laughing at our president,” said Donald Hammond, a retired police officer and Republican from Brooklyn, Ohio. He accused Obama of tying the military’s hands out of concern about potential U.S. casualties. “If we’re going to be committed to the fight, he needs to commit seriously and stop playing patty-cake.” Patty Watson, a Democrat from Portland, Oregon, saw it differently. “I feel concerned that we’re getting pulled into that quagmire that just seems to never end,” said Watson, 54. She said she felt Obama was doing his best to confront a dangerous group but worries he’s pursuing a strategy in which the U.S. is “the sole force of that resolution.” The AP-GfK poll was conducted before Obama’s announcement last week that up to 50 U.S. special operations troops will head to northern Syria, the first time the U.S. has openly sent forces into that civil war-wracked country. But it reflected apprehension that has grown measurably over the course of 2015, during which Obama increased the number of troops in Iraq and revamped his approach against IS, including dropping a campaign to train Syrian rebels that had failed miserably. The Islamic State threat and the proper U.S. response promise to play a major role in the 2016 presidential campaign, in which many of the Republican candidates have called for sending ground troops into Iraq and Syria, and even Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton has called for a U.S.-imposed no-fly zone in Syria. Two-thirds of Americans say the Islamic State threat is a very or extremely important issue, the AP-GfK poll found. Obama’s approach has drawn flak from both parties in Congress, where lawmakers have argued current U.S. policy in Syria is too limited. Grilled by members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, top U.S. diplomats defended Obama’s policy and pointed to Russia, which has unloaded a barrage of airstrikes in Syria in what the White House deems a misguided attempt to prop up Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government. “The regime continues to barrel bomb its own citizens with impunity, perhaps even emboldened by Moscow’s help,” Victoria Nuland, the top U.S. diplomat for Europe, told Congress on Wednesday. Concerns about Obama’s strategy overseas resonate deeply when it comes to Afghanistan, where Obama abruptly dropped his plans last month to pull nearly all U.S. forces by end of 2016. Instead, Obama will keep at least 5,500 troops there when he leaves office, hoping to protect fragile gains made over the last 14 years and shore up the fledgling Afghan security forces. Roughly a third of Americans said they approve of that revamped plan, with one-third opposed and another third neither in favor nor against. Just 1 in 5 say it’s likely or very likely that Afghanistan can maintain a stable, democratic government once the U.S. leaves, and 71 percent predicted history will judge the Afghanistan war as more of a failure than a success. Jamie Atkins, a 40-year-old Democrat from Easley, South Carolina, said he has mixed feelings about Obama’s overall approach to foreign affairs. But on Afghanistan, his misgivings were clear. “I disapprove with him sending the troops to Afghanistan,” said Atkins, a disabled former construction worker. “They put their lives in danger, and some are killed in the line of duty.” The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15-19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, designed to represent the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ Oct 30 AP-GfK Poll: Clerks must issue gay marriage licenses By LAURIE KELLMAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Linda Massey opposes gay marriage. But she was incensed last summer to see that Kim Davis, a Kentucky county clerk, was refusing to issue marriage licenses to gay couples. “If the government says you have to give out those marriage licenses, and you get paid to do it, you do it,” says the 64-year-old retiree from Lewiston, Michigan. “That woman,” she said of Davis, “should be out of a job.” Americans like Massey are at the heart of a shift in public opinion, an Associated Press-GfK poll has found. For the first time, most Americans expect government officials to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, even over religious objections. It’s partly a matter of expecting public servants to do their jobs. But more broadly, the issue touches on a familiar dispute over which constitutional value trumps which: religious freedom, or equality under the law? The question in recent months has entangled leaders with political sway, among them Pope Francis and the 2016 presidential contenders. But it’s not a new conflict for a nation that has long wrestled with the separation of church and state. Where Davis’s answer was the First Amendment’s protection of religious freedom — and she served jail time to back it up — a majority of respondents don’t buy that argument when it comes to public officials issuing marriage licenses. That’s a shift since an AP-GfK survey in July, when Americans were about evenly split. Then, 49 percent said officials with religious objections should be exempt from issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples and 47 percent said they should be required to issue them. Now, just 41 percent favor an exemption and 56 percent think they should be required to issue the licenses. That shift was especially stark among Republicans. A majority of them —58 percent — still favor religious exemptions for officials issuing marriage licenses, but that’s down 14 points since 72 percent said so in July. The timing of the surveys is important, coming during rapid developments in the politics of gay rights and religious freedom. Public opinion has favored same-sex marriage in recent years and some politicians — President Barack Obama, 2016 presidential contender Hillary Rodham Clinton and some members of Congress among them — have come around to that view. In June, the Supreme Court effectively legalized gay marriage nationwide. The cultural change has influenced the governing bodies of some of the most conservative religions, including the Catholic Church under Pope Francis and the Mormon Church, which last week called for compromises between protecting religious liberties and prohibiting discrimination. Both institutions are trying to accommodate society’s shifting views while keeping a firm grip internally on their own doctrines against gay marriage and homosexual activity. And both churches steered clear of the appearance of backing Davis. The Vatican said the pope’s brief meeting with her in Washington should not be construed as a sign of support. Mormon leader Dallin H. Oaks last week told a closed gathering of judges and clergy in Sacramento, California, that when conflicts between religion and law rise and are decided, citizens of a democracy must follow court rulings. Davis, a Democrat, Apostolic Christian and clerk of Rowan County, Kentucky, became the face of religious Americans who bristle at government requirements that conflict with their beliefs, whether those mandates cover gay marriage, contraception or abortion referrals. On June 27 — the day after the high court ruling — Davis refused to issue same-sex marriage licenses. In September she spent five days in jail for defying a court order to issue the licenses. Affixing her name to the certificate, she wrote in a statement, “would violate my conscience.” After serving her jail sentence, Davis returned to work — but her name no longer appears on marriage licenses for gay couples. Nick Hawks, a business consultant in Ararat, North Carolina, agrees with Davis. “We’ve got to decide at some point who’s going to be protected first,” said the father of three boys, 50, who says he’s a Republican-leaning independent. “It doesn’t seem quite fair” to allow a minority such as gay people to “control the policy.” More generally, the poll offers evidence that Americans remain slightly more likely to say that it’s more important for the government to protect religious liberties than the rights of gays and lesbians when the two come into conflict, 51 percent to 45 percent. But that, too, is a slight shift since July, when 56 percent said it’s more important to protect religious liberties. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ Oct 28 AP-GfK Poll: Americans still feeling economic gloom By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are more likely than they were a year ago to have positive views of the nation’s economy, but they’re still feeling more pessimism than optimism, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll conducted ahead of CNBC’s GOP primary debate on Wednesday. The candidates will attempt to impress Republicans in particular, who the poll finds feel much gloomier about the economy than Democrats. Here are some things to know about opinions on the economy from the latest AP-GfK poll: ___ STILL FEELING GLOOMY A majority of Americans — 54 percent — say the nation’s economy is poor, the new poll shows. Just 45 percent call it good. Still, views of the economy are slightly rosier than they were over the summer, when a July AP-GfK poll found 41 percent of Americans described the economy as good, and more positive than they were a year ago, when just 38 percent said so. Half of men, but just 4 in 10 women, describe the economy as good. Americans are even less likely to see the nation heading in a positive direction overall. Just 36 percent think the country is heading in the right direction, while 63 percent think it’s headed in the wrong direction. More than 8 in 10 Americans in the new poll described the economy as an extremely or very important issue, down slightly since July. Still, the economy rates higher in importance than any other issue in the poll. ___ GOP ESPECIALLY UNHAPPY The candidates will aim their messages at a Republican Party that has a particularly negative view of the economy. While 65 percent of Democrats describe the economy as good, just 29 percent of Republicans say the same. Seven in 10 Republicans say the economy is poor, including more than 8 in 10 GOP supporters of the tea party. Eight-five percent of Republicans say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Independents, too, are unhappy with the economy, with 33 percent seeing it as good and 62 percent poor. ___ NOT SEEING IMPROVEMENT Few Americans — just 17 percent — think the economy has improved over the past month, while 21 percent think it has gotten worse and the bulk — 60 percent — think it’s stayed about the same. Most Americans don’t expect to see improvement in either the nation’s economy or their own financial situations in the next year, either. Thirty-one percent say they expect the general economic situation to get better, 32 percent expect it to get worse, and 34 percent expect it to stay about the same. Likewise, 29 percent expect their household financial situation to get better, 25 percent expect it to get worse, and 44 percent expect it to stay the same. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say the economy has gotten worse in the last month, 31 percent to 13 percent. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to expect it to get better in the next year, 40 percent to 21 percent. ___ DEMOCRATS HOLD TRUST ADVANTAGE Whichever GOP candidate emerges victorious in next year’s presidential primaries will need to convince Americans that the party can do a better job than Democrats at handling economic issues. Americans are slightly more likely to say they trust Democrats than Republicans more on handling the economy, 29 percent to 24 percent, the poll shows. But neither party’s a clear winner on the issue — 15 percent say they trust both equally and 30 percent say they trust neither party. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they trust neither party, 29 percent to 17 percent. A majority of independents — 55 percent — don’t trust either party. ___ DIVISION ON OBAMA’S HANDLING Americans are slightly more likely to disapprove than approve of President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy, 52 percent to 46 percent, according to the new poll. But that’s an apparent rise in his approval rating on the issue since July, when just 42 percent said they approved. Americans’ rating of Obama on the economy is nearly identical to how they feel about how he’s handling his job overall, with 46 percent approving and 52 percent disapproving. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online from Oct. 15 to 19. The sample was drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel without Internet access were provided it for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ Oct 28 AP-GfK Poll: Support for tighter gun laws ticks up By KATHLEEN HENNESSEY and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — After a steady string of mass shootings and a revival of the political fight over gun control, Americans are slightly more likely than they were two years ago to say gun laws should be made stricter, a new Associated Press-GfK poll found. Despite the uptick in favor of tighter gun laws, Americans remain deeply divided along party, gender and geographic lines on an issue that has ricocheted into the presidential campaign. Eight in 10 Democrats favor stricter gun laws, while 6 in 10 Republicans want them left as they are or loosened. Still, the results show the calls for tighter laws have some bipartisan appeal, with 37 percent of Republicans, including 31 percent of conservative Republicans, favoring stricter gun laws. The new poll was taken two weeks after the shooting rampage at Umpqua Community College in Roseburg, Oregon, thrust the discussion of gun control into the country’s attention and the presidential campaign. Polls regularly find a rise in support for tighter gun laws after such shootings — although that support often levels off as the headlines fade. In December 2013, one year after a mass shooting at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn., 52 percent of Americans said gun laws should be made tighter. That number was 58 percent in the new poll, while 27 percent said they think laws should be left as they are and 12 percent favored making gun laws less strict. Over a third of Americans said gun laws should be made much stricter, up from 29 percent who said so in the 2013 poll. And they were slightly less inclined to see laws limiting gun ownership as an infringement on the 2nd Amendment right to bear arms. Forty-five percent saw such laws as an infringement; 51 percent did not. In the 2013 poll, 50 percent said gun laws infringe on the right to bear arms and 47 percent said they did not. Gun control has become one of the top issues in the Democratic presidential primary, as front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton has promised to take executive action to expand background checks and accused Republicans of bowing to the powerful gun lobby. President Barack Obama has said he plans to use his bully pulpit to press lawmakers to pass tougher laws, although there’s little sign of momentum in the Republican-run Congress. The poll finds Democratic politicians are in line with their party’s loyalists. Democrats are more likely than Republicans — 69 percent to 55 percent — to say gun laws are very or extremely important to them. “The idea of being able to have a concealed weapon on a college campus is frightening to me, absolutely frightening to me,” said Mary Robins, a retired career counselor in Menlo Park, California, who said she favored a ban on assault-type weapons and restricting access to large magazines. Robins was among the 66 percent of women who said gun laws should be made stricter, compared with 50 percent of men. Women also were more likely to give the issue high priority. “I think we need to enforce the ones we have and prosecutors and judges should be getting tougher,” said Harry Masse, a 59-year-old police chief in Metropolis, Illinois. City and suburban dwellers are more likely to back tighter laws than rural Americans. Americans are equally divided over which party they trust to do a better job handling the issue. Twenty-nine percent say they trust the Republicans more and 27 percent trust the Democrats more, while 13 percent say they trust both equally. An additional 30 percent say they trust neither party on handling the issue. Obama received notably tough marks on the issue, even from some in his own party. The president made a push for a tighter gun laws in 2013, but failed to persuade Congress. He then issued several executive actions, but until recently has sidelined the issue. Six in 10 Americans disapprove of his handling of the issue, the new poll finds, including 35 percent of Democrats. “I don’t think he’s done enough,” said Ryan Dupont, a college professor in from Smithfield, Utah. He said he understands Obama must work with “less-than-ideal” people in Congress but “I think that issue needs to be moved more aggressively.” Unchanged since 2013 is the share of Americans living in a household where at least one person owns a gun — about one-third. About half of Republicans live in households with a gun, compared with less than a third of Democrats or independents. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ Oct 27 AP-GfK Poll: Use default, shutdown threats to cut spending By ALAN FRAM and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — A divided public thinks it’s worth shutting the government or halting its ability to borrow to pay bills unless President Barack Obama consents to spending cuts, an Associated Press-GfK poll has found. Predictably, Democratic and Republican loyalists have starkly different views. Some specific goals of GOP lawmakers fare poorly when they are in the balance: There’s little taste for forcing a shutdown over halting federal payments to Planned Parenthood, repealing Obama’s health care overhaul or blocking a nuclear deal with Iran. The survey was conducted earlier this month as Obama and the GOP-controlled Congress crept toward a pair of deadlines that, without action, could trigger jolting political and economic reverberations. Republican congressional leaders struck a deal with their Democratic counterparts late Monday on a two-year budget deal aimed at averting a debt crisis and shuttering the government. A vote could come as early as Wednesday in the House. Failure to extend the government’s ability to borrow money by early November could spark a destabilizing, first-ever federal default, while a partial government shutdown would begin if lawmakers don’t approve money by Dec. 11 to keep agencies running. Though many in the AP-GfK poll and rank-and-file congressional conservatives seem to disagree, top Republicans want to avoid a headline-grabbing shutdown or lapse of federal borrowing authority this year for fear of branding their party as unable to govern and alienating voters. Fifty percent in the poll said Congress should only increase federal borrowing authority if government spending is substantially cut — a trade-off Republicans frequently demand but last won in a 2011 showdown with Obama. Another 35 percent said the debt limit should be raised by itself to avoid a default, with separate talks over budget cuts that wouldn’t jeopardize a borrowing pact. Eleven percent opposed boosting the ceiling under any circumstances. That finding masked a deeper partisan gap. While 58 percent of Democrats want to raise the debt limit and negotiate later over spending reductions, 73 percent of Republicans want to condition a borrowing ceiling increase on an agreement to cut expenditures. “The long-term answer is to get the debt down so we don’t have to keep extending” the borrowing cap, said Michael Fiorillo, 62, a Republican and software consultant from Plains, Georgia, who responded to the AP-GfK survey. “We’re spending more than we’re bringing in. That’s just bad economics.” At the same time, 56 percent overall said it would be worth a government shutdown to win spending cuts, compared to 40 percent who disagreed. Once again, party differences were telling — 74 percent of Republicans were willing to close agencies to try winning budget reductions, while a lower, though surprisingly high, 44 percent of Democrats agreed. “There are consequences for shutting down the government, it affects people in an immediate sense, like their jobs,” said Serena Keiler, 38, a Democrat who works for an entertainment company in Los Angeles, California, and opposes a shutdown. “It’s really an uncreative way of working toward a solution.” Only 1 in 4 overall backed forcing a shutdown to block Planned Parenthood’s money, including fewer than half of Republicans. The GOP has unsuccessfully tried halting the group’s federal payments because of abortions and fetal tissue donations it performs. Just over a third backed a shutdown over annulling Obama’s health law and around 4 in 10 supported the tactic to derail the nuclear pact with Iran. Those sentiments contrasted sharply with the more aggressive views of tea party supporters, whose opinions influence some congressional Republicans. Among that conservative group, support for a shutdown over Planned Parenthood, the health care law, the Iran deal and cutting federal spending ran between 60 percent and 90 percent. Tea party backers represent around one-fifth of those in the AP-GfK poll. The survey highlights public indecision over extending the debt ceiling, which lets the government borrow money to pay costs that it has already incurred. By a small margin, more people oppose than support raising the limit while the bulk — more than 4 in 10 — are neutral. More feel strongly that a default would cause a major economic crisis than deeply doubt that, by more than 2-1. Still, a significant 4 in 10 think that’s only somewhat likely — even though most economists think a default would seriously hurt the world economy. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15 to 19. The sample was drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have Internet access were provided it for free. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ Oct 25 AP-GfK Poll: Republicans view Donald Trump as most electable By STEVE PEOPLES and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican voters view Donald Trump as their strongest general election candidate, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that highlights the sharp contrast between the party’s voters and its top professionals regarding the billionaire businessman’s ultimate political strength. Seven in 10 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump could win in November 2016 if he is nominated, and that’s the most who say so of any candidate. By comparison, 6 in 10 say the same for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who, like Trump, has tapped into the powerful wave of antiestablishment anger defining the early phases of the 2016 contest. “It’s the lifelong establishment politicians on both sides that rub me the wrong way,” said registered Republican Joe Selig, a 60-year-old carpenter from Vallejo, California. “I think Trump is more electable. He’s strong. We need strength these days.” Trump and Carson are considered among the least electable general election candidates by the Republican Party’s professionals, those who are in the business of helping candidates run campaigns and win elections. Experienced political strategists note that winning a general election and winning the Republican nomination are often very different tasks. The GOP’s most conservative voters — a group that is older and whiter than the nation as a whole — wield extraordinary influence in picking the nominee. Independents, moderate voters and minorities are far more important in general elections that draw many more people to the polls. While Trump and Carson are popular in primary election polls, both have used divisive rhetoric in recent months that alienated some minorities. Trump called Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals during his announcement speech; while Carson said he would not support a Muslim presidential candidate. “Republicans think (Democrat) Hillary (Rodham Clinton) is weaker than she is. They are wrong,” said GOP operative Katie Packer, who was deputy campaign manager for 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. “They think we don’t need to win more women or more Hispanics to win. They’re wrong.” Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who has embraced a welcoming tone with Hispanics, tops the field of experienced political leaders on the question of electability, running about even with Carson and slightly behind Trump. Six in 10 Republicans say Bush could win the general election and 54 percent say the same about Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. There’s a drop-off among the rest of the GOP’s 2016 crowded class. None of the other candidates is viewed as electable in a general election by more than half of Republican voters. Carson and Trump are the candidates most likely to receive positive ratings from Republican voters, with 65 percent saying they have a favorable opinion of Carson and 58 percent saying the same of Trump. Republicans are somewhat less excited about Bush, with 48 percent giving him a favorable rating. “If he weren’t a Bush, I wouldn’t even know his name,” said Republican Leslie Millican, a 34-year-old housewife from Magnolia, Arkansas. “I like the other Bushes. Something about (Jeb Bush) — he ain’t grown on me yet.” Trump and Bush have the highest negative ratings within their own party: 37 percent of Republican voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush and 36 percent say the same of Trump. Their negatives are even more pronounced among the broader electorate. The AP-GfK poll found Trump is viewed unfavorably by 57 percent of those surveyed, the highest negatives of any Republican candidate. Bush is next with unfavorable ratings from 48 percent of all respondents. Overall, all but one GOP candidate is viewed more unfavorably than favorably by all those questioned. Carson is the exception, drawing about equally positive and negative views. He remains unknown by a significant portion of the electorate. Among Republican voters, all the candidates except New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie have a net positive rating. Carson tops the list, followed by Rubio, former technology executive Carly Fiorina and then Trump. The poll also found a sharp difference between the political parties over experience. By an overwhelming 77 percent to 22 percent margin, Republican registered voters and leaners say they prefer an outsider candidate who will change how things are done, rather than someone with experience in Washington who can get things done. They prefer someone with private sector leadership experience over experience holding elected office, 76 percent to 22 percent. Trump, Carson and Fiorina are the only Republican candidates who have never held elective office. Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, is a former first lady, secretary of state and senator. Perhaps that helps explain why Democrats prefer experience over outsider status, 67 percent to 32 percent, and experience in office over private sector experience 66 percent to 33 percent. Republican strategist John Feehery says Trump is considered electable now only because he hasn’t yet been the subject of a multimillion dollar negative ad campaign, which will happen should he maintain his lead in the polls. “Right now, he serves a valuable purpose as a front-runner, especially for the Democrats,” Feehery said. “They would love him to be our nominee.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online October 15 to October 19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: Poll: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 22 AP-GfK Poll: Republicans disapprove of Clinton on Benghazi, but Democrats largely indifferent By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — The congressional investigation of the 2012 attack that killed four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, is not a burning issue for the public, except for Republicans, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds. But overall, Americans are more likely to view the investigation as justified rather than as a political attack on former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who testifies before a congressional committee Thursday. Here are some things to know about public opinion on Clinton and Benghazi from the new AP-GfK poll. ___ APATHY ON CLINTON’S HANDLING Many Americans just don’t have an opinion about Clinton’s handling of the investigation. Four in 10 say they neither approve nor disapprove of how she has answered questions about the attack, while 20 percent approve and 37 percent disapprove. Republicans in the poll overwhelmingly dislike how Clinton has handled questions on the attack — 71 percent disapprove, including 57 percent who strongly disapprove. But about half of both Democrats and independents don’t have strong enough feelings on the issue to say either way. Democrats who do have an opinion are more likely to approve than disapprove, 39 percent to 12 percent. Independents are more likely to disapprove than approve, 29 percent to 11 percent. ___ MOST SAY INVESTIGATION JUSTIFIED Despite the lack of strong opinions about Clinton’s handling of the issue, Americans don’t mind the congressional investigation. They are more likely to view it as a justified attempt to try to find out what happened than as a politically motivated attack on Clinton, 52 percent to 44 percent. On this, too, there is a major partisan divide. Among Republicans, 83 percent consider the investigation justified and 15 percent consider it politically motivated. Among Democrats, 71 percent consider it politically motivated and just 28 percent justified. ___ EVEN DIVIDE ON EMAILS Clinton is also likely to face questions Thursday about her use of a private email account and server, rather than a government address, while she was secretary of state. Americans are divided on what they think is the most likely reason Clinton did that. Just under half (47 percent) think it’s because it was more convenient for her to have only one email address, about the same as the 49 percent who say it’s because she wanted to shield her emails from government transparency laws. On this, too, Americans appear to view the issue through a partisan lens. Seventy-one percent of Democrats believe Clinton is more likely to have done it for convenience, while 73 percent of Republicans suspect she wanted to shield her emails from scrutiny. Nearly 9 in 10 Republicans supporters of the tea party movement think she was trying to shield herself from scrutiny. Independents are slightly more likely to say she wanted to avoid government transparency laws than that she did it for convenience, 48 percent to 40 percent. The poll finds that perceptions about Clinton’s honesty remain a weak point. Two-thirds of Americans describe Clinton as only slightly or not at all honest, while a third say she is very or somewhat honest. ___ MORE SEE EMAILS AS MINOR PROBLEM Americans are slightly more likely to view Clinton’s use of a private email server as a minor problem than a major problem, 37 percent to 33 percent. An additional 26 percent say it’s not a problem at all. Among Democrats, 10 percent call it a major problem, 52 percent a minor problem and 37 percent not a problem. Among Republicans, 64 percent call it a major problem, 24 percent a minor problem and 11 percent not a problem. ___ FEW CLOSELY WATCHING EMAIL ISSUE Just 21 percent of Americans say they’re following news about Clinton using a private email server extremely or very closely. An additional 33 percent say they’re following the subject somewhat closely, and 43 percent say they’re not following too closely or not following at all. Partisans on both sides are more likely than independents to say they’re following very closely. About a quarter of both Democrats and Republicans, but less than 10 percent of independents, say so. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ ___ Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter at http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Oct 21 AP-GfK Poll: Republicans want principles, not compromise By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — As GOP lawmakers in the House decide whether to unite around Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as the next speaker, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds Republicans nationally prefer congressional leadership that will stand on conservative principles, not compromise — even if it leads to a government shutdown. Neither party’s supporters are particularly happy with their leaders in Congress, the poll suggests. Some things to know about public opinion on Congress and its leadership from the AP-GfK poll: ___ PRINCIPLES OVER COMPROMISE Among Republicans in the poll, 62 percent say they would prefer a new speaker who will stick with conservative principles even if doing so leads to a government shutdown. Just 37 percent prefer someone who will compromise with President Barack Obama and Democrats to pass a budget. That’s a struggle the next speaker will need to handle soon. The continuing resolution that funded the government and avoided a shutdown last month expires in December. More generally, 56 percent of Republicans say they prefer leaders from their party in Congress to stick to their principles even if it makes passing legislation difficult, while just 43 percent want leaders who will compromise with the other side. There’s a deep divide within the Republican Party on the issue of principles versus compromise. Seven in 10 conservative Republicans prefer a speaker who will stick with conservative principles even if it causes a shutdown, while less than half of moderate or liberal Republicans say the same. More than 6 in 10 conservative Republicans, but just 4 in 10 moderate to liberal ones, say they generally prefer congressional leaders to stick to their principles even if it makes it difficult to pass legislation. ___ DEMS, INDIES PREFER COMPROMISE Among all those questioned, more say they would prefer that leaders from their party in Congress compromise to pass legislation rather than stick with their principles, 60 percent to 37 percent. Also, 63 percent say they want the next speaker to be someone who will compromise to pass a budget. Democrats want their own party’s leaders to compromise with the other side rather than stick to their principles at the expense of passing legislation, 76 percent to 23 percent. A majority of independents also prefer party leaders to compromise. ___ NOT FEELING LEADERSHIP LOVE People don’t feel particularly happy with current congressional leadership of either party. Majorities say both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress don’t represent them well. Even Democrats sizing up Democratic leaders and Republicans judging GOP leaders don’t have great feelings about how well they’re represented. Just 37 percent of Democrats say Democratic leaders in Congress represent their views extremely or very well, while 47 percent say they’re represented only moderately well and 15 percent say they’re not represented well. Among Republicans, even fewer — just 22 percent — think Republican leaders in Congress represent them very well, 45 percent moderately well, and 33 percent not well. Liberal Democrats are more likely than moderate to conservative ones to feel very well represented by Democratic leaders in Congress, 50 percent to 30 percent. There’s no such difference between conservative Republicans and moderate to liberal ones, who are about equal in their opinions that congressional Republican leaders do a mediocre job of representing them. Independents feel poorly represented by congressional leadership regardless of party. Six in 10 say leaders of each party in Congress represent them not very well or not well at all. ___ CONGRESS DEEPLY UNPOPULAR Whoever takes the helm as speaker will preside over a deeply unpopular institution. Just 16 percent of respondents approve of the job Congress is doing more generally, while 83 percent disapprove. Twenty percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans approve of the job Congress is doing. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ ___ Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter at http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Oct 21 AP-GfK Poll: After debate, voters say Clinton most electable By LISA LERER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats appear to be rallying around Hillary Rodham Clinton after her command performance in the party’s first presidential debate, with strong majorities viewing her favorably and more saying she can win the White House than any of her rivals, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. The survey released Tuesday finds that Clinton has regained traction in the 2016 primary contest following a summer slump, with nearly 8 in 10 Democrats saying they have a positive opinion of her. That’s a slight uptick for Clinton, eight points better than the last time the question was asked in an AP-GfK poll in July. To the extent that there is a desire for an alternative to Clinton in the Democratic field, the poll finds that Vice President Joe Biden appears more able to provide it than the insurgent campaign of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Nearly 7 in 10 Democrats said they had a favorable view of Biden, who has spent months weighing whether to jump into the race. Only about half of Democrats say that about Sanders. Sanders isn’t necessarily unpopular among Democrats, but the longtime political independent is still not well known. A third said they don’t know enough about him to have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion. It’s not just Democrats who view Clinton as a possible winner. Three quarters of Americans think Clinton could win in a general election, including two-thirds of Republicans. By comparison, 56 percent of Americans think Biden could win and just 44 percent think Sanders could claim the White House. Meanwhile, less than half of Americans said they think any of the Republican candidates for president could win in a general election. Among Democrats, 9 in 10 think it would be possible for Clinton to win if she were the nominee, while 7 in 10 say the same of Biden. “Joe Biden should stay on the sidelines, he’s better that way,” said Alonzon McClendon, a 57-year-old warehouse manager in Dallas. “Clinton is more qualified.” Democrats are split on whether Sanders could win the election, with 52 percent saying he could and 46 percent saying he could not. The gains for Clinton come after months of enduring criticism for her use of a private email account and server while serving as President Barack Obama’s first secretary of state. The survey was conducted Oct. 15-19, after the first Democratic debate, and her strong showing there — the first of three high-profile events for Clinton this month — appears to have helped reassure supporters worried about the state of her campaign. On Thursday, Clinton is scheduled to testify before the House committee investigating the 2012 attacks in Benghazi, Libya, that killed four Americans. Clinton plans to use the hearing as an opportunity to lay out her foreign policy credentials, emphasizing the importance of so-called “smart power” — using diplomacy to achieve gains in dangerous regions without traditional military action. A Clinton aide said her goal is to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans, who they expect will focus on her emails. The aide said she plans to respond by stressing her personal relationship with Chris Stevens, the U.S. ambassador to Libya who died in the attacks. The aide spoke on condition of anonymity, because the person was not authorized to publicly discuss internal campaign strategy. On Saturday, Clinton and Sanders head to Des Moines for the Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner, an annual meeting of influential activists that helped then-Sen. Barack Obama find his footing in the 2008 race. Biden is not scheduled to appear at the event as he continued to ponder whether he’s ready for a presidential run after the spring death of his son, Beau. After weeks of public indecision, 62 percent of Democrats say they consider Biden very or somewhat decisive, compared to 77 percent for Clinton and 54 percent for Sanders. Biden leads Clinton among Democrats on which candidate is perceived as most likable, 77 percent to 69 percent. About equal numbers — more than 7 in 10 — consider Biden and Clinton to be at least somewhat compassionate. Sanders trails both on those measures, with 55 percent of Democrats rating him as likable and 56 percent as compassionate. Democrats are also more likely to describe Biden than Clinton as very or somewhat honest, 72 percent to 60 percent. At the same time, more than seven out of ten find Clinton “inspiring” and more than 8 out of 10 say she is competent — giving her a notable lead over both Biden and Sanders in those characteristics. In a contrast with the Republican primary field, which has been marked by the rise of candidates with little governmental experience, two-thirds of Democratic voters say they prefer someone who has experience in Washington over an outsider. “The system is broken and it doesn’t work well, but I don’t think a person who comes with no experience can fix it,” said Joyce Tally, 67, a retiree from Vilonia, Arkansas. “Clinton is experienced. She’s qualified.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online October 15 to October 19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ ___ Follow Lisa Lerer and Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/llerer and http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Aug 06 AP-GfK Poll shows few in US have received credit cards with chips By KEN SWEET and EMILY SWANSON Even as an Oct. 1 deadline approaches to replace Americans’ out-of-date credit cards with new cards embedded with computer chips, the vast majority of Americans still have not received their new cards and only a small minority are using the chips at all, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. The poll finds that roughly one in 10 Americans have received the new chip-enabled credit cards. Of those who have received the cards, only one-third say they’ve actually used the cards as intended in new specialized credit card readers. In an effort to combat mounting credit card fraud, U.S. banks are making a push to replace the magnetic-stripe credit cards Americans use with new ones that have tiny computer chips embedded in them, which are far more secure. The older type of cards, long since been phased out in other major countries, have become easy targets for thieves, who have found multiple ways to exploit the security flaws in the decades-old magnetic stripe technology. Even though the U.S. counts for 25 percent of all credit card transactions, half of all credit card fraud happens in America, according to a report by Barclays. The chip cards, which have been used in Europe and elsewhere for more than a decade, transmit a one-time code when they’re inserted into a card-reading device to make a purchase. Even if the code is stolen, thieves can’t use it to make other purchases. The new chip cards can’t prevent a thief using a person’s stolen credit card information to make fraudulent purchases online, however. The new poll shows Americans are more likely to say they’re very concerned about their personal information being secure when making purchases online (45 percent) than in stores (38 percent). In 2012, Visa, MasterCard and other payment processors set a soft deadline of Oct. 1, 2015 for merchants to have their equipment changed to accept the new cards, but industry representatives estimate that only half of merchants will be ready in time. Banks say it will take well into 2016 to replace all Americans’ credit and debit cards. Digging into the numbers, the poll finds 41 percent of Americans have received a new credit or debit card in the past few months. But only 30 percent of those who have received new cards, or 13 percent of all Americans, have received a new card with a chip embedded on the front of it. Of those who have received the card, 35 percent say they’ve actually used them as intended. The new chip-enabled cards also come with magnetic stripes, and many users are still swiping them just like they always have. The new cards require users to insert their card into an ATM-like slot in a card reader for several seconds. Briana Thompson, a college student in Northwest Ohio, said she received her new card around Christmas. “I remember going ‘oh, wow, the card looks cool,’” Thompson said. “But I haven’t had a chance to use the chip. I haven’t encountered a merchant who accepts them.” The poll shows that Americans, once given the cards, are figuring out how to use them. Among those who do have a new card, 70 percent say they know how to use it. But just a quarter of Americans, including a little over a third of those who have received the new cards, say they understand very or extremely well why they’re being sent the cards in the first place. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online July 9 to July 13, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com/ Aug 03 AP-GfK poll: Americans favor farmers & food during drought MICHAEL R. BLOOD and EMILY SWANSON LOS ANGELES (AP) — When water gets scarce and the government slaps restrictions on its use, who should be first in line at the spigot? Farmers, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. The national survey provides a glimpse into how Americans think water should be managed at a time when abnormally dry weather has afflicted swaths of the country, and water shortages in some states have led to conflict over who should get water and how much. Two-thirds of Americans believe water is a limited resource that can be depleted if people use too much, the poll found, and 70 percent believe that government should restrict how much residents and businesses use when drought takes hold. When asked to rate the importance of competing needs when water is scarce, 74 percent said agriculture should be a top or high priority, followed by residential needs (66 percent), wildlife and ecosystems (54 percent) and business and industry (42 percent). To Cheryl Hendricks in parched California, it’s simple: To put food on the table “we rely on agriculture.” “It’s getting kind of serious when you are not giving water to people who are producing food,” said Hendricks, 63, of Rancho Cucamonga, about 40 miles east of downtown Los Angeles. She and her husband are taking shorter showers and removing lawn in response to California’s four-year drought, but for growers and ranchers “it’s more important for them to have it.” The poll’s findings appear to run against criticism of farming practices that demand vast amounts of water. In California, for example, agriculture accounts for 80 percent of all water drawn from rivers, streams and the ground. Producing California’s almond crop consumes more water than all the showering, dish-washing and other indoor household water use of the state’s 39 million people. The drought has been acute in California, where rainfall has dipped to record lows, reservoirs are depleted and state regulators have ordered conservation from cities, businesses and agriculture. Some communities have been given nine months to cut their use by 36 percent compared to 2013 levels. Nevada’s Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the country, is hovering near its historic low water mark and residents in the Las Vegas area have limits on lawn watering. In Oakridge in western Oregon, a community well is 23 feet below normal and restrictions prevent residents from washing cars and filling swimming pools. “We need to take care of people first — and food,” said William Clarke-Jessimy, 33, from Queens, New York, who thinks homes and agriculture should be favored for water rights. He’s watched prices spike for California fresh fruits and vegetables in his local markets, and he worries about friends and family in the San Francisco area who are living with the scarcity of water, with no relief in sight. “It’s really scary,” he said. “They need to find ways to deal with the drought on a long-term basis. I don’t think a lot of people realize how bad it really is.” Earlier this month, the House passed Republican-backed legislation designed to bring more water to California’s farm belt. Republicans have blamed some cutbacks on environmental regulations designed to protect salmon and the threatened Delta smelt, a three-inch-long fish that is disappearing. California Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein has proposed spending $1.3 billion over a decade for reservoirs, desalination projects and water recycling. According to the survey, Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to call water for agriculture a top priority, 81 percent to 74 percent, respectively. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to see water for wildlife and ecosystems as a top need, 61 percent to 49 percent. There was little variation in regions around the nation in picking top priorities. The poll also found most Americans — nearly 80 percent — think government should limit developers to building only in places with an adequate, long-term water supply. The advocacy group Food & Water Watch has urged Gov. Jerry Brown to place a moratorium on groundwater use for irrigating crops in some parts of the heavily farmed San Joaquin Valley. California director Adam Scow said the poll’s findings reflect that people value food production but the group believes “we simply don’t have the water” to support crops in some drought stricken regions. David Abbott has witnessed the toll in his hometown. The resident of Winton, California, in the heart of the state’s Central Valley farm belt, has seen fields turn to dusty patches and farm workers end up jobless. Friends’ wells have gone dry. In California, farmers have seen allocations of water from rivers and reservoirs slashed by government agencies in amounts greater than at any other time in California history, forcing many to tap depleted groundwater sources or buy it at high prices. Abbott, 27, a part-time college business professor, places home use and the needs of agriculture on about equal footing. For his part, he’s watering less outdoors at home, has changed shower heads to conserve and waits to get a full load of dirty laundry before turning on the washing machine. “I know it’s hard when we don’t have water,” said Abbott, who lives amid farms and almond orchards. “They say we are going to have a real wet winter, but I don’t think that’s going to be enough.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online July 9-13, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 21 AP-GfK Poll: Majority of Americans favor diplomatic ties with Cuba By DEB RIECHMANN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly three-fourths of Americans think the United States should have diplomatic ties with Cuba, but they’re not sure how far to go in lifting sanctions, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll released Monday as full diplomatic relations between the two countries were formally restored. “Relations between Cuba and the U.S. I think are long overdue. There’s no threat there,” said Alex Bega, 30, of Los Angeles. “I think the sanctions we have on them are pretty much obsolete.” The resumption of normal ties ended decades of acrimony between the two nations that was hardened when President John F. Kennedy and Cuba’s Fidel Castro fought over Soviet expansion in the Americas. The new diplomatic status, however, does not erase lingering disputes, such as mutual claims for economic reparations, Havana’s desire to end a more than 50-year-old trade embargo and the U.S. push for Cuba to improve human rights and democracy. The new poll also found that 58 percent of Americans approve of President Barack Obama’s handling of the U.S. relationship with Havana while 40 disapprove. By contrast, only 39 percent approve of his handling of the U.S. role in world affairs more generally, while 59 percent disapprove. “I just disapprove of his politics in general,” said Julie Smith, 40, a university administrator from Bowling Green, Kentucky. “I just don’t think that us trying to improve relations with Cuba is beneficial to the United States.” Respondents were split on what to do about the sanctions on Cuba. Forty-eight percent thought they should be decreased or eliminated entirely while 47 percent favored keeping them at their current level or increasing them. Five percent didn’t answer. The story was different when it came to Iran. Seventy-seven percent said they thought sanctions on Tehran should be kept where they are or increased, according to the poll, which was conducted just days before the U.S. signed an agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief. Under the agreement, Iran’s nuclear program will be curbed for a decade in exchange for potentially hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of relief from international sanctions. Mary Barry, 57, of Arlington, Texas, is happy that the Obama administration opened diplomatic efforts with both Cuba and Iran, but is wary about lifting sanctions on the two countries. “I think we need to have diplomatic relations with Iran and monitor their nuclear weapon,” said Berry, who works producing and staging corporate business meetings. But, she said: “I think we need to keep the sanctions in place on Iran to make sure they’re doing what they’ve promised they’re going to do because I think Iran is a country that you can’t really trust.” On Cuba, she thinks it’s “just time” to restore diplomatic relations. But she favors a gradual lifting of sanctions on Cuba. “I don’t think they should be lifted immediately,” she said. There is some momentum in Congress, however, to lift the trade embargo. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., backs a bipartisan bill in the Senate to lift the embargo, which she said must be done for the U.S. to avoid losing investment opportunities that will come with loosening of travel restrictions to the island. “Once millions of American tourists are going, they will need places to stay and they will need food to eat. … So when they come, they are going to be starting to sleep in Spanish hotels and eat German foods because those countries will be able to supply what they need in the tourism industry, not to mention the computers and Wi-Fi and everything else,” Klobuchar said in an interview. She predicted the legislation, which has 20 co-sponsors so far, would pass, although maybe not this year. “I know there are some people who have long been opposed to this,” she said. Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey thinks the Obama administration’s work to restore relations is an attempt to validate the Castro regime’s “brutal behavior.” “I remain deeply concerned with ongoing human rights violations in Cuba,” Menendez said Monday. “There have been over 2,800 political arrests on the island this year alone.” The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online July 9 to July 13, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 18 AP-GfK Poll: Sharp divisions after high court backs gay marriage By DAVID CRARY and EMILY SWANSON NEW YORK (AP) — The Supreme Court’s ruling last month legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide has left Americans sharply divided, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that suggests support for gay unions may be down slightly from earlier this year. The poll also found a near-even split over whether local officials with religious objections should be required to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, with 47 percent saying that should be the case and 49 percent say they should be exempt. Overall, if there’s a conflict, a majority of those questioned think religious liberties should win out over gay rights, according to the poll. While 39 percent said it’s more important for the government to protect gay rights, 56 percent said protection of religious liberties should take precedence. The poll was conducted July 9 to July 13, less than three weeks after the Supreme Court ruled states cannot ban same-sex marriage. According to the poll, 42 percent support same-sex marriage and 40 percent oppose it. The percentage saying they favor legal same-sex marriage in their state was down slightly from the 48 percent who said so in an April poll. In January, 44 percent were in favor. Asked specifically about the Supreme Court ruling, 39 percent said they approve and 41 percent said they disapprove. “What the Supreme Court did is jeopardize our religious freedoms,” said Michael Boehm, 61, an industrial controls engineer from the Detroit area who describes himself as a conservative-leaning independent. “You’re going to see a conflict between civil law and people who want to live their lives according to their faiths,” Boehm said. Boehm was among 59 percent of the poll respondents who said wedding-related businesses with religious objections should be allowed to refuse service to gay and lesbian couples. That compares with 52 percent in April. Also, 46 percent said businesses more generally should be allowed to refuse service to same-sex couples, while 51 percent said that should not be allowed. Claudette Girouard, 69, a retiree from Chesterfield Township, Michigan, said she is a moderate independent voter who has gradually become supportive of letting same-sex couples marry. “I don’t see what the big hoopla is,” she said. “If they’re happy, why not?” Girouard said local officials should be required to perform same-sex marriages, but does not think that wedding-related businesses should be forced to serve same-sex couples. “If the official doesn’t like what he’s being asked to do, then quit,” she said. “But businesses are kind of independent, so if they have a strong belief against it, there are enough other businesses out there for someone to use.” The poll found pronounced differences in viewpoints depending on political affiliation. For example, 65 percent of Democrats, but only 22 percent of Republicans favored allowing same-sex couples to legally marry in their state. And 72 percent of Republicans but just 31 percent of Democrats said local officials with religious objections should be exempt from issuing marriage licenses. By a 64-32 margin, most Democrats said it’s more important to protect gay rights than religious liberties when the two are in conflict. Republicans said the opposite, by 82-17. Clarence Wells, 60, a conservative from Rockwood, Tennessee, said he strongly disapproved of the Supreme Court’s ruling. He anticipates friction as gay couples try to exercise their newfound rights and people with religious objections to same-sex marriage balk at accepting them. “I don’t believe it’s going to go over smoothly,” said Wells. “I think a lot of them will be shunned in church. … I think there will businesses that are going to close, because some people are stubborn enough to not want to deal with it.” Andrew Chan, 41, a moderate independent from Seattle, said he has tried to remain neutral on same-sex marriage. “For me, it’s always been about tolerating,” said Chan, who works for a nonprofit organization. “I’ve got friends on both sides.” Chan said he was happy for gays and lesbians who have found someone they want to marry, and he expressed some wariness toward politicians who might try to roll back the Supreme Court ruling. “That just creates more division,” he said. “Are we looking to move the country forward or move it backward?” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online July 9 to July 13, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Some questions were ask of half samples of respondents and have smaller margins of error. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Swanson reported from Washington. ___ Reach David Crary on Twitter at http://twitter.com/CraryAP and Emily Swanson at http://twitter.com/EL_Swan ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 17 AP-GfK Poll: Minorities, young Americans still backing Obama By JOSH LEDERMAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Even as the public remains closely divided about his presidency, Barack Obama is holding on to his support from the so-called “Obama coalition” of minorities, liberals and young Americans, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows, creating an incentive for the next Democratic presidential nominee to stick with him and his policies. Hillary Rodham Clinton, by comparison, is viewed somewhat less favorably by the key voting groups whose record-setting turnout in 2008 propelled Obama to the White House and will be crucial to her own success. Roughly two-thirds of Hispanics view Obama favorably, compared to just over half of Hispanics who say the same about Clinton. Among self-identified liberals, Obama’s favorability stands at 87 percent, to Clinton’s 72 percent. Half of Americans under the age of 30 view Obama favorably, compared to just 38 percent for his former secretary of state. The findings offer a window into the factors at play as Clinton decides how closely to embrace Obama, his record and his policies in her campaign for president. Although associating herself with Obama could turn off some independent and Republican-leaning voters, electoral math and changing demographics make it critical for Democrats to turn out high numbers of Hispanics, African Americans and young voters. Overall, Obama’s job approval rating stands at 43 percent, a leveling off following an AP-GfK poll conducted in early February that put his approval at 47 percent — slightly higher than it had been through most of 2014. The number of Americans who disapprove of Obama’s job performance has stayed relatively steady at 55 percent. “He just seems to have something in his mind that he wants to accomplish and keeps trying to get it done,” said Christine Klauder, a self-described liberal from southern New Jersey. Klauder said she voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and that her support hasn’t dropped off. “He’s more oriented toward the kind of people that I feel that we are, have been all my life.” Contrast that with Klauder’s views about Clinton, who has yet to win her enthusiastic support. “Being a woman, I think it would be wonderful to see her in — but I’m not sure,” Klauder said. “I think maybe her time has passed.” Obama, whose troubles in the polls were seen as a drag on Democratic in last year’s midterm elections, has also managed to hold on to recent gains he’s made among core supporters. When AP-GfK polled in October 2014, Obama’s approval rating among Hispanics had plummeted to 39 percent, as Hispanic advocacy groups demanded that Obama take aggressive action on immigration. One month later, he did just that — and his job approval among Hispanics now stands at 56 percent. Whereas 72 percent of liberals approved of Obama’s performance in October, that number now appears to have climbed, to 82 percent. The survey reinforces a concern expressed by many Democrats about Clinton’s candidacy: that she just doesn’t inspire the levels of enthusiasm among traditional Democratic constituencies that were so critical to Obama’s success. In the first weeks of her campaign, Clinton has promoted a number of populist ideas surrounding immigration, voting rights and economics that hew closely to themes that Obama has made central to his presidency. Although she distanced herself from Obama by suggesting she would have voted against giving him expedited authority to negotiate trade deals, she offered explicit support for the controversial nuclear deal with Iran that Obama announced this week. Esther Danner, a 61-year-old from Hanover, Maryland, said she’s continued to support Obama because she feels he’s made progress on overhauling health care, promoting same-sex marriage and lifting the ban on gays in the military. Danner, who works part time at an African American heritage museum, said she thought Obama’s full-throated support would go a long way to persuade minorities and young Americans to show up to vote for the next Democratic nominee. “The last eight years have been preparing for the 2016 election,” Danner said. “The current generation that voted for Obama, like myself, will probably continue the journey with the next Democratic candidate.” In an AP-GfK poll conducted in January and February, nearly half of Americans — 47 percent — described the economy as “good,” almost as many as the 51 percent who called it “poor.” Since then, views of the economy have grown slightly more negative, with 41 percent now saying the economy is “good” and 57 percent saying it’s “poor.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, but higher for subgroups such as Hispanics and African Americans. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report. ___ Reach Josh Lederman on Twitter at http://twitter.com/joshledermanAP and Emily Swanson at http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Jul 16 AP-GfK Poll: Clinton’s standing falls among Democrats By LISA LERER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton’s standing is falling among Democrats, and voters view her as less decisive and inspiring than when she launched her presidential campaign just three months ago, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The survey offers a series of warning signs for the leading Democratic candidate. Most troubling, perhaps, for her prospects are questions about her compassion for average Americans, a quality that fueled President Barack Obama’s two White House victories. Just 39 percent of all Americans have a favorable view of Clinton, compared to nearly half who say they have a negative opinion of her. That’s an eight-point increase in her unfavorable rating from an AP-GfK poll conducted at the end of April. The drop in Clinton’s numbers extends into the Democratic Party. Seven in 10 Democrats gave Clinton positive marks, an 11-point drop from the April survey. Nearly a quarter of Democrats now say they see Clinton in an unfavorable light. “I used to like her, but I don’t trust her,” said Donald Walters of Louisville, Kentucky. “Ever since she’s announced her candidacy for the presidency I just haven’t liked the way she’s handled things. She doesn’t answer questions directly.” While Clinton’s approval rating fell, Obama’s stayed constant at 46 percent since April. More than 8 in 10 Democrats have a positive view of the president. At least part of Clinton’s decline may be due to questions about her character, a topic Republicans have been trying to make central to the 2016 campaign. In ads, stump speeches and online videos, they paint her as a creature of Washington who flouts the rules to get ahead. While Clinton has spent decades in the public eye, she’s focused in recent months on creating a more relatable — and empathetic — image. In public events, she frequently talks about her new granddaughter, Charlotte, and references her early career as a legal advocate for impoverished children. The survey suggests that voters aren’t sold on her reinvention: Only 4 in 10 voters say they view Clinton as “compassionate.” Just 3 in 10 said the word “honest” described her either very or somewhat well. Stephanie Bergholdo, a Democratic voter from Oak Park, California, says she finds Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren far more sincere in their liberal views — though she’s likely to vote for Clinton should she become the party’s nominee. “She’s piggybacking on some of the things they’ve been talking about,” said Bergholdo. “I don’t think she comes across very genuine. She just seems a little stiff to me.” The percentage of respondents calling Clinton at least somewhat inspiring also slipped from 44 percent to 37 percent. Even the number of voters saying Clinton is at least somewhat decisive, previously a strong point for the former New York senator, fell from 56 percent in April to 47 percent in the new poll. “She’s pretty much a run-of-the-mill Democrat,” said Mark Oldenburg of Madison, Wisconsin. “I don’t know that there’s anything particularly special about her.” Other polls released this week show contrasting results. A Washington Post-ABC News survey found an uptick in Clinton’s favorability, while a Suffolk University-USA Today poll showed a slightly net negative rating. That means the downturn for Clinton could be a result of random differences in survey sampling or a troubling trend for the dominant Democratic candidate, underscoring the undefined nature of the crowded early presidential campaign. Democrats argue that a drop in her numbers is a predictable result of Clinton’s return to the partisan fray after years in the less overtly political position of secretary of state. Republicans, meanwhile, attribute the drop to questions about the financial dealings of Clinton’s family foundation and her use of an email account run from a server kept at her New York home while serving as secretary of state. Clinton’s bad marks weren’t unique: Nearly all of the Republican candidates surveyed in the poll shared her underwater approval ratings. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a leading GOP candidate, saw his unfavorable ratings rise to 44 percent from 36 percent in April. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online Thursday to Monday, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access with no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 14 AP-GfK Poll: Ahead of deal, Americans express mixed feelings By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans think of Iran as an enemy of the United States, but a narrow majority still supported a diplomatic relationship in a poll conducted on the eve of the nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. Things to know about public opinion on Iran: MOST WANT DIPLOMACY, LIKE SANCTIONS A slim majority of Americans (51 percent) said the United States should have a diplomatic relationship with Iran, the AP-GfK poll found, slightly more than the 45 percent who said it should not. At the same time, sanctions against Iran were popular. Altogether, 45 percent of Americans in the poll said the sanctions should remain at their current level and 32 percent thought they should be increased. Just 12 percent thought sanctions should be decreased and 7 percent said they should be eliminated. The question did not mention the possibility of reducing sanctions in exchange for a nuclear deal. AMERICANS SEE IRAN AS ENEMY A majority of Americans — 56 percent — consider Iran to be an enemy, the poll found. An additional 31 percent consider Iran to be unfriendly, but not an enemy. Large majorities of Americans across party lines said Iran is at least unfriendly to the United States. More than 70 percent of Republicans, half of independents and 45 percent of Democrats said before the nuclear deal that Iran is an enemy. Nearly half of those who said Iran is an enemy, but just 14 percent of those who considered it unfriendly, wanted to increase sanctions. REPUBLICANS LIKE A HARDLINE APPROACH Among Republicans, 6 in 10 said the United States should not have a diplomatic relationship with Iran, while two-thirds of Democrats said it should. Half of Republicans said sanctions against Iran should be increased, while Democrats and independents were more likely to say they should be kept the same as now. MOST DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA’S HANDLING No polls have been conducted since the deal was reached Tuesday, but the new AP-GfK poll suggests President Barack Obama has an uphill struggle to earn the public’s trust on the issue. Before the agreement was announced, 6 in 10 Americans disapproved of Obama’s handling of the U.S. relationship with Iran, while just over a third approved. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of Republicans registered disapproval of Obama’s handling of the relationship, but about 7 in 10 independents did, too. Two-thirds of Democrats approved of Obama’s handling of the issue. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,004 adults was conducted online Thursday to Monday, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 14 AP-GfK Poll: Iran deal sets 2016 clash between Clinton and GOP hopefuls By LISA LERER and KEN THOMAS WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton’s endorsement of the landmark nuclear deal with Iran underscores the deeply tangled links between President Barack Obama’s foreign policy legacy and the presidential aspirations of his former secretary of state. Between meetings on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, Clinton stressed that the agreement would need to be “enforced vigorously, relentlessly,” noting that Obama called her last night to inform her that a deal had been reached. “As president, I would be absolutely devoted to assuring the agreement is followed.” Clinton has largely supported the Obama administration’s negotiations over the past two years. She has stayed involved with their progress with regular briefings, according to aides who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to publicly discuss private meetings. But navigating the political nuances of a historic agreement with a decades-long U.S. enemy heading into a presidential election year may end up being far more complicated. On Tuesday, Republican candidates signaled that Clinton would be forced to defend her position in the general election, warning of violent chaos in the Middle East and calling on Congress to try to halt the agreement. “This isn’t diplomacy — it is appeasement,” said former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, one of the many Republicans who lashed out about the agreement. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said the bargain “will be remembered as one of America’s worst diplomatic failures.” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio — who, like Walker, has vowed to rescind the agreement should he be elected president, said: “I believe this deal undermines our national security.” Though a slim majority of Americans back diplomacy with Iran, 56 percent consider Iran an enemy of the U.S., according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Israeli leaders — who hold sway with some Jewish voters — see the agreement as a threat to their country’s very existence. And Republicans have already spent months trying to link Clinton to Obama, who has seen approval ratings for his foreign policy sink in his second term. Clinton’s current place in the Iran debate marks a striking role reversal for the second-time presidential candidate and her long ago rival. In 2008, she called Obama’s offer to meet with Iran’s leader without preconditions “irresponsible and, frankly, naive.” And when Clinton said she would “obliterate” Iran if the country used nuclear weapons against Israel, Obama likened her “bluster” to the “tough talk” of then-President George W. Bush. Four years later, as secretary of state, Clinton helped begin the talks that are nearing completion in Vienna. She dispatched a top adviser, Jake Sullivan, to participate in the secret meetings with Iran through the sultan of Oman that led to the start of the international negotiations. Sullivan, who could serve as Clinton’s national security adviser if she’s elected, declined to speak for Clinton during a breakfast with reporters. When asked for his own views, Sullivan said, “I believe that this deal is the best and most effective way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. That’s my personal view.” Clinton, however, has long wondered publically whether a deal would ever take shape. She told an American Jewish organization last year that she was “skeptical the Iranians will follow through and deliver.” She said she had “seen many false hopes dashed through the years.” Now, skeptical congressional Democrats are looking to Clinton for direction as they weigh the completed agreement. With the deal between the world powers now finalized, Congress has 60 days to assess the accord and decide whether to pursue legislation imposing new sanctions on Iran or try to prevent Obama from suspending existing ones. If Clinton wins, her commitment to implementing the agreement will play a huge factor in its potential success. “She’s one of two of the most important, most influential voices in this debate, the other being President Obama,” said New York Rep. Steve Israel, who met with Clinton on Tuesday morning. “Her opinion is critically important.” Though Clinton praised the deal, she warned that the agreement would not end Iran’s “bad behavior” in the region, such as sponsoring terrorists, and noted that the country remains a major threat to Israel. Democrats said Clinton offered a far more positive assessment behind closed doors, though they noted that Clinton did not explicitly urge them to vote in favor of the deal. “She endorsed it. Full-throated,” said Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly, who attended the closed-door meeting. “She was not equivocal at all in her support of the deal as she understands it.” __ Associated Press writers Nicholas Riccardi in Las Vegas and Laurie Kellman and David Espo in Washington contributed to this report. Jun 28 AP-GfK Poll: Americans show strong support for home Olympics By EDDIE PELLS and EMILY SWANSON While Bostonians are hesitant to host the Olympics, Americans across the country overwhelmingly support the idea of the games on home turf, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The support decreases when people are asked if they would want the Olympics in their local area. It dips even further when they are asked if public funds should be used to pay for them. Nearly nine of 10 Americans — 89 percent — support a bid to host the Olympics somewhere in the United States. Yet just 61 percent would support a bid in their local area. Fifty-two percent of respondents would support an Olympics in their local area if it were paid for with a combination of public and private funds, while 46 percent would be opposed to either that proposal or a local Olympics. “Our own research tells us that the Olympic brand is incredibly strong in the United States and it’s one of the reasons that we decided to bid for the 2024 Games,” U.S. Olympic Committee spokesman Patrick Sandusky said. “This poll confirms that and shows there is a strong desire, from coast to coast, to see the Games return to the U.S.” But the nationwide numbers do not echo what’s happening in Boston, where the effort to host the 2024 Olympics has hit a number of roadblocks. Approval ratings around the city have been grim — well under 50 percent — and a referendum has been set up for next November. If that vote doesn’t win both in the city and the state, organizers have vowed to pull the bid, even though the official deadline to declare a city’s candidacy is this September. That’s one of the key issues the U.S. Olympic Committee board will tackle Tuesday at a meeting at which the Boston group will present an update. The USOC recently received poll numbers on a survey it commissioned. The result of those numbers will also factor into whether the board decides to continue with a Boston bid, look elsewhere, or withdraw from the competition completely. A backup plan could be to consider Los Angeles. In the AP-GfK poll, 56 percent of respondents said hosting the Olympics is worth the cost to the local areas, and 42 percent said it is not. “This poll shows clearly that Americans are eager to bring the Olympic and Paralympic Games back to the United States,” said Erin Murphy, the chief operating officer of Boston 2024. “Boston 2024 is proud to represent the U.S. as we work to build a bid that is fiscally responsible and provides world-class venues and a lasting legacy for the Games and the city of Boston.” One main complaint in Boston is that hosting an Olympics leaves the public vulnerable to footing too much of the bill and is not the proper way to pay for much-needed infrastructure improvements. Last winter’s massive snowstorms shined a light on the city’s less-than-ideal transit system and also brought up more general questions about Boston’s ability to handle major projects. Last month, Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca took over as bid leader. Boston has been revamping its bid, spreading some of the venues farther across the state than originally expected, and vowing that there will be more changes between now and September 2017, when the Olympics are awarded. Boston’s newest plans will be unveiled Monday. Paris, Rome and Hamburg, Germany are the other declared candidates. The International Olympic Committee normally takes poll numbers very seriously when deciding who the most viable candidates are to host the games. One poll in Chicago done shortly before the vote for the 2016 Olympics showed less than 50 percent support for hosting, a number that dropped drastically after the mayor changed course and agreed to sign a standard host city contract that left the city to bear financial responsibility for any losses. Those numbers were one of many factors — most of which were related to the USOC’s then-poor relationship with the IOC — that caused Chicago to finish last in the voting. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,005 adults was conducted online from June 19 to 21 using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. Jun 26 AP-GfK: Poll shows divide over increasing money for transit By JOAN LOWY and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — A slight majority of Americans prefer living in a single-family house in the suburbs or a rural area with more land, even if it means driving long distances to get to work or run errands, according to a poll by The Associated Press-GfK. However, a significant minority, 44 percent, would choose an apartment or smaller house in an urban area that comes with a short drive to work or the opportunity to use public transportation, bike or walk. The split also has a political aspect: Sixty-seven percent of Republicans and 53 percent of independents prefer suburban or rural living, while 55 percent of Democrats prefer urban areas. The share of Americans who prefer suburban or rural living — 53 percent — is identical to the share who say the government should increase spending to build and improve roads, bridges and interstate highways. About 1 in 3 think current spending levels are about right, while just over 1 in 10 would like to see less money spent on roads. Many states are struggling just to maintain current spending levels, and Congress has been unable to come up with a long-term plan to pay for highway aid that closes the gap between current spending and federal gas tax revenue. Americans are more divided over building and improving public transportation such as rail and bus systems. Four in 10 say spending on public transportation should be increased, but just as many say current spending is about right. Only 18 percent say transit spending should be cut. Contrary to the widely held notion that the millennial generation is flocking to cities and giving up their cars, younger people are not significantly more or less likely than older people to prefer urban living with a shorter commute and access to public transit, the poll found. Matthew Wild, 33, an airline pilot living in the Los Angeles suburb of Hawthorne, said he favors increasing spending on both public transit and highways. The region’s freeways “take a real beating” from the traffic and need to be maintained, he said, but no new lanes should be added. “We definitely don’t need to be expanding freeways anymore,” Wild said. “We’ve maxed out.” He cited a highway near his home that was recently widened and now is as full as ever. He does, however, strongly support building more light rail transit locally and high-speed rail between California cities. Wild said he’d much rather take a convenient local train than fight traffic in his car. He currently takes trains only a few times a year because there are no direct routes from where he lives to the places he wants to go, and indirect routes take too long, he said. “The big problem with L.A. is that, given the lack of public transportation, sitting in traffic in your own car is still faster than taking public transit,” Wild said. Jane McEntire, 62, who lives in Cartersville, Georgia, on the northwest fringe of the Atlanta metropolitan area, says traffic is horrible and getting worse. Even so, she’d rather keep spending on roads and cut spending on public transportation. She says she’s lost confidence in the ability of state and local transportation officials to make improvements and not fritter money away on wasteful projects. She is particularly incensed that officials used federal transit aid to build a slow-moving streetcar line in downtown Atlanta that is used primarily by tourists. “I think they look really cute, but as far as usefulness — no,” she said. “When you have federal dollars that are coming into a state that are available and you spend it on these cars in Atlanta that go six or eight blocks back and forth … Why didn’t they take that money and spend it on something to help commuters?” The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online from April 23 to 27 using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Joan Lowy on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/AP_Joan_Lowy May 12 AP-GfK Poll: Many approve Iran deal; Most don’t trust Tehran By LOLITA C. BALDOR and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Many Americans like the idea of the preliminary deal that would limit Iran’s nuclear program but very few people really believe Tehran will follow through with the agreement. An Associated Press-GfK poll finds that just 3 percent said they were very confident that Iran would allow inspections of its nuclear facilities, remove plutonium from the country and shut down close to half of its uranium-enriching centrifuges as the preliminary deal says would be required. Nearly seven in 10 people said they were not confident, while 25 percent said they were only moderately confident. The U.S., Germany, Britain, France, Russia and China are aiming to finalize a deal with Iran by June 30 that puts limits on Iranian programs that could be used to make nuclear arms. In exchange, economic sanctions on Iran would be lifted over time. Tehran denies any interest in such weapons but is negotiating in hopes of relief from billions of dollars in economic sanctions. The next round of nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers will start Tuesday in Vienna. Although more than half of Americans polled say they approve of making the deal, few people — 16 percent — are actually paying close attention to the complex Iran negotiations that have angered Israel and unnerved Gulf nations who are concerned about Tehran’s rising influence and aggressive behavior in the region. The Senate last week passed legislation that would give Congress time to vote to reject any deal before sanctions are lifted. President Barack Obama would retain the right to veto lawmakers’ disapproval. Israel’s strong objections to the deal could make a difference to many Americans. If forced to choose, a majority say it’s more important to maintain the U.S. relationship with Israel than to strike a deal with Iran. But respondents are divided along party lines, with nearly six in 10 Democrats saying the Iran deal is more important while seven in 10 Republicans believe ties with Israel are more critical. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been one of the harshest critics of the deal with Iran. Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat, citing hostile Iranian rhetoric toward the Jewish state, Iran’s missile capabilities and its support for violent militant groups. More broadly, the poll found that Americans are increasingly interested in the U.S. role in world affairs, with 60 percent saying it’s an extremely important issue, up from 52 percent less than five months ago. Slightly more people also approve of Obama’s handling of the issue, increasing from 38 percent in December to 42 percent in the latest poll. Fifty-seven percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of the issue. But overall, Americans are more likely to trust Republicans than Democrats to handle protecting the country. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online April 23-27, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com May 09 AP-GfK Poll: Can Supreme Court be fair in health law case? By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Many people in the United States doubt that the Supreme Court can rule fairly in the latest litigation jeopardizing President Barack Obama’s health care law. The Associated Press-GfK poll finds only 1 person in 10 is highly confident that the justices will rely on objective interpretations of the law rather than their personal opinions. Nearly half, 48 percent, are not confident of the court’s impartiality. “That lawsuit should have never made it this far,” said Hal Lewis, a retiree from Scranton, Pennsylvania. “If they rule for the people who are bringing the suit, it could be close to the destruction of Obamacare in this country,” added Lewis, who once edited a local newspaper in his city. Lewis is one of the relatively few people — 13 percent — who say they are closely following the case, called King v. Burwell. Opponents of the law argue that as literally written, the law only allows the federal government to subsidize premiums in states that have set up their own insurance markets, also known as exchanges. Most states have not done so, relying instead on the federal HealthCare.gov website. The Obama administration says opponents are misreading the Affordable Care Act by focusing on just a few words. When the legislation is read in context, it’s clear that lawmakers wanted to help uninsured people in every state, the administration maintains. If the court sides with the plaintiffs, it’s estimated that 8 million to 9 million people across more than 30 states could lose coverage. They would be unable to afford their premiums without the subsidies, which are keyed to household income. A decision is expected late in June. In a twist, the poll found that opponents of the law, who tend to be politically conservative, have less confidence in the objectivity of a court with a conservative majority. Among foes, 60 percent are not confident, compared with 44 percent of the law’s supporters. “That is incredibly powerful that a court associated with conservative views is not well trusted by Republicans,” said Robert Blendon, who tracks public opinion on health care at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Blendon said the law’s opponents may be remembering the court’s 2012 ruling in which Chief Justice John Roberts cast the key vote to uphold the law. Regardless of how the public feels about the court’s internal deliberations, a majority wants the justices to allow subsidies to continue flowing in all 50 states, an opinion in line with the administration’s position. Fifty-six percent said the court should keep the subsidies without restriction, while 39 percent said the financial aid should be limited to residents of states that set up their own health insurance markets. It’s less clear what people would want Congress to do if the court were to side with the law’s opponents. A ruling for the plaintiffs would invalidate health insurance subsidies in states without their own exchanges. Many of those states have Republican governors and legislatures that have resisted the health care law. The poll found that a bare majority, 51 percent, wants Congress to amend the law to make it clear that people are entitled to help regardless of what their state leaders do. But 44 percent prefer that Congress leave the law as is and let states decide whether they want to create insurance exchanges that would allow their residents to receive subsidies. “It suggests there’s a political opening for Republicans to offer a way for people to continue receiving subsidies through some sort of state arrangement,” Blendon said. State leaders would have to move fast. Some legal experts say it would be only weeks before the subsidies dry up; others say it’s possible the administration could continue payments through the end of this year. Ethan Levesque of Augusta, Maine, said he is troubled by the federal law’s requirement that virtually all U.S. residents get health insurance or risk fines from the IRS. “I feel like it should actually be the determination of the states to decide health coverage,” said Levesque, a customer service representative for a telecommunications company. “There is definitely nothing wrong with health care whatsoever, but it’s the way that this has been presented to people that I have problems with,” he said. The poll found sharp splits on whether Congress should intervene. Two-thirds of Democrats think Congress should amend the law to save the subsidies, but only 31 percent of Republicans shared that view. Half of independents want Congress to update the law if necessary, while 41 percent think it should be kept as is. Leading congressional Republicans have said they would step in to prevent health insurance markets from unraveling, but they have not spelled out details. It’s estimated that 15 million to 17 million adults have gained coverage since the fall of 2013, when the law’s big insurance expansion began. But the nation is divided over Obama’s major domestic policy achievement. The poll found 27 percent of Americans support the law, while 38 percent oppose it and 34 percent say they neither support nor oppose it. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online April 23-27, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com May 06 AP-GfK Poll: Immigration not a deal breaker for Republicans By EMILY SWANSON Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are split down the middle on whether they would prefer to vote for a candidate who wants to keep or undo President Barack Obama’s executive action to let some immigrants living in the U.S. illegally stay in the country, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. But even Republicans don’t necessarily see a candidate’s support for that action as a deal breaker for their votes. The poll was conducted before former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Tuesday that she supports a path to citizenship and that, if elected president, she would expand the protections for immigrants laid out in Obama’s executive action. Five things to know about public opinion on immigration: — HALF SUPPORT PATH TO CITIZENSHIP, LEGAL STATUS Most Americans – 53 percent – say they favor providing a way for immigrants who are already in the United States illegally to become U.S. citizens, while 44 percent are opposed. And although Clinton drew a stark line Tuesday between support for citizenship and support for legal status to stay, the poll shows that distinction makes little difference in people’s support for a change in immigration policy. Among Americans asked if they favor a way for those already in the United States to stay legally, 50 percent were in favor and 48 percent opposed – not a significant difference from support for a path to citizenship. — DIVISION OVER OBAMA EXECUTIVE ACTION Forty-nine percent say they’re more likely to support someone who wants to keep Obama’s immigration action in place, while 47 percent would rather vote for someone who wants to undo it, the AP-GfK poll shows. That’s true even though most Americans support the policies that make up the executive action. Fifty-nine percent favor providing a way for immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children to stay legally, and 57 percent support allowing those who are in the country but whose children are U.S. citizens or permanent residents to stay. Americans on both sides of the executive action issue are just as likely to say that they could imagine voting for a candidate who disagrees with them as say they could not. — NOT A DEAL BREAKER FOR REPUBLICANS Even among Republicans, many say they could see themselves voting for a candidate who wants to keep Obama’s action in place. Three-quarters of Republicans say they would prefer to vote for a candidate who would undo it, but a combined 55 percent would either prefer to support a candidate who would keep it in place or could imagine themselves voting for such a candidate. Even among conservative Republicans, nearly half – 47 percent – could at least imagine voting for a candidate who would keep the action in place. Significant minorities of Republicans – about 4 in 10 – support allowing immigrants brought to the United States as children, along with parents of citizens or permanent residents, to stay legally. — LINE IN THE SAND FOR HISPANICS Three-quarters of Hispanics in the poll say that they would prefer to support a candidate who would keep Obama’s executive action in place, and a majority – 53 percent of Hispanics overall – say they definitely could not support a candidate who wants to undo it. Eight in 10 Hispanics in the poll favor allowing those brought to the country as children, and those who are parents of citizens or permanent residents, to stay legally. Hispanics are more likely to trust Democrats than Republicans on handling immigration, 36 percent to 21 percent. But nearly a third don’t trust either party on the issue. Among all Americans, 30 percent trust Democrats more and 26 percent trust Republicans more, while29 percent trust neither party and 15 percent trust both equally. — MOST DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA’S HANDLING OF IMMIGRATION Americans are more likely to disapprove than approve of how the president is handling immigration, 57 percent to 42 percent. That’s unchanged since the last AP-GfK poll early in February. Fifty-seven percent of Americans call immigration a very or extremely important issue to them personally, up slightly since 52 percent in February. Among Hispanics, 6 in 10 approve of how Obama is handling immigration. In October, before he announced the immigration action, only 3 in 10 did. — The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online April 23-27, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Some questions were asked of a half sample and have a higher margin of error. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. — Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com — Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL-Swan May 01 AP-GfK Poll: Doubts about Clinton’s honesty after emails By LISA LERER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans appear to be suspicious of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s honesty, and even many Democrats are only lukewarm about her presidential candidacy, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Is she strong and decisive? Yes, say a majority of people. But inspiring and likable? Only a minority think so. Clinton’s struggles to explain her email practices while in government, along with questions about the Clinton Foundation and Republican criticism of her openness, wealth and trustworthiness seem to have struck a nerve in the public’s perception of the dominant Democratic figure in the 2016 campaign. In the survey, 61 percent said “honest” describes her only slightly well or not at all. Nearly four in 10 Democrats, and more than six in 10 independents agreed that “honest” was not the best word for her. Even so, she is viewed more favorably than her potential Republican rivals, none of whom are as well-known as the former secretary of state, senator and first lady. With Clinton facing little competition on the Democratic side, Republicans are trying to make questions about her integrity central to the early 2016 campaign. They paint her as a creature of Washington who flouts the rules to get ahead. Her use of a private email account run from a server kept at her New York home while serving as secretary of state has fed perceptions that she had things to hide. And questions are swirling about foreign donations to the family’s charitable foundation and whether that money influenced her work at the State Department. James Robins, an independent voter from North Carolina, says his generally positive opinion of Clinton has shifted over the past few months, as more details have emerged about her email usage and foundation fundraising practices. “She and her family think they’re above everything,” he said. “She intentionally destroyed all the evidence on that server. And when you look at some of her other stuff recently it’s equally as bad.” Clinton said last month that she used a personal account out of convenience. She deleted about 30,000 emails that she has described as personal in nature and has declined requests from congressional Republicans to turn over her server for an independent review. The survey suggests that many Americans aren’t buying Clinton’s explanation: A majority said they believe she used a private address to shield her emails from transparency laws and they think she should turn her server over to a third party for further investigation. At the same time, the public is split over whether her email usage is a significant issue for her presidential aspirations: Less than a third — 32 percent — said it was a major problem, 36 percent rated it a minor problem, and 31 percent said it’s not a problem at all. Only 20 percent said they’re paying very close attention to the email story. “We don’t have the whole picture and all the information that we need to make a judgment,” said Ruth Johnson, of Moorhead, Minnesota. “Will she show everything that was emailed? Or has she eliminated a lot of stuff we’ll never know about?” Still, Clinton’s overall ratings remain the strongest in the emerging presidential field and are essentially unchanged since two AP-GfK polls conducted last year. Forty-six percent of Americans express a favorable view of Clinton, slightly more than the 41 percent who express a negative opinion. No potential Republican candidate in the poll had greater positive than negative ratings. Polls generally showed Clinton with a much higher approval rating while she was secretary of state. Opinions of her have become more polarized as she has re-entered partisan politics, as they were when she vied for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. Despite Clinton’s dominance in the early primary field, the survey suggests that some in her party would be open to a challenger. Among Democrats, only 34 percent said they were excited by her candidacy while 36 percent described themselves as merely satisfied. Another 19 percent said they were neutral, and 9 percent were disappointed or angry. “I wish there was somebody else,” said Kenneth Berger, of New York City. “She always has a problem.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online April 23-27, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com May 01 AP-GfK Poll: Americans approve of drone strikes on terrorists By KEN DILANIAN and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly three-quarters of Americans say it’s acceptable for the U.S. to use an unmanned aerial drone to kill an American citizen abroad if that person has joined a terror organization, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. A majority, 6 in 10, supports the use of drones to target terrorists in general. Only 13 percent oppose the use of drones, the poll said, and another 24 percent don’t feel strongly either way. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted April 23-27, in the days after President Barack Obama publicly apologized for a CIA drone strike in Pakistan that inadvertently killed American hostage Warren Weinstein and Italian hostage Giovanni Lo Porto. The strike also killed Ahmed Farouq, an American citizen who was an al-Qaida planning leader. Another strike killed Adam Gadhani, an American citizen who joined al-Qaida and became Osama Bin Laden’s spokesman. The survey is the latest in several years of data showing broad support among the U.S. public for a targeted killing program begun under President George W. Bush and expanded dramatically under Obama. While the U.S. once condemned Israel for targeted killing from the air, such operations are now the centerpiece of American counterterrorism policy, and they enjoy widespread public backing. Support for targeted killing with drones crosses party lines, the new poll found. Nearly 6 in 10 Democrats favor using drones to bomb members of terrorist groups, while only 16 percent are opposed. Among Republicans, 72 percent are in favor and only 10 percent are opposed. Independents are more ambivalent, with 45 percent in favor and 12 percent opposed; 37 percent are neutral on the issue. Just 47 percent of Americans think it’s appropriate to use drones to target terrorists overseas if innocent Americans might be killed in the process. More than 4 in 10 (43 percent) of those who initially said they favor using drones — or that they didn’t favor or oppose using them — said it’s unacceptable to use drones if innocent Americans could be killed. The poll did not include questions about foreign civilian casualties or about public confidence in the government’s assertion that the vast majority of those killed in drone strikes are terrorists. Independent groups have estimated that at least hundreds, and possibly thousands, of noncombatants have been killed in the operations, a count the U.S. government disputes. Drone skeptics say most polls on the subject frame the question with the assumption that those targeted are terrorists, when it’s not clear that is always the case. “Almost everyone, of course, is going to support killing people who are trying to kill us, but that’s not who we are necessarily targeting in each case,” said Sarah Kreps, an associate professor in the Department of Government at Cornell University. Kreps examined poll data and found that if respondents are confronted with evidence of errors and civilian casualties in some drone strikes, support for the strikes drops below a majority. Since the first operation in 2002, there have been 396 drone strikes in Pakistan and 126 in Yemen, according to the New America Foundation, which tracks the strikes using media reports. The CIA has conducted all of the strikes in Pakistan and most of them in Yemen, though the military also conducts drone strikes in Yemen. The pace of strikes in both countries has diminished in recent years. Obama imposed a standard in Yemen that no strike would occur unless there was a near certainty that no civilian would be harmed. That standard — more restrictive than the rules governing traditional military action — was not in place in Pakistan, which is considered part of the Afghan war theater. In Pakistan, the drop-off in strikes has been attributed to the success of the program in destroying much of core al-Qaida. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online April 23-27, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 29 AP-GfK Poll: Americans evenly split on gay marriage case By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are evenly split on whether the Supreme Court should rule that same-sex marriage must be legal nationwide, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The poll was conducted just before the Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Tuesday in a case that will likely decide whether state laws banning same-sex marriage are constitutional. But the poll also finds that Americans are more likely to favor than oppose marriage for gay and lesbian couples being legal in their own states. Here are five things to know about public opinion on same-sex marriage: ___ NEARLY HALF SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGE According to the new AP-GfK poll, nearly half of Americans favor laws allowing gay and lesbian couples to wed. Just over a third are opposed. But Americans are split down the middle on what action the Supreme Court should take when it rules on the marriage case later this year, with 50 percent saying it should rule that same-sex marriage must be legal nationwide and 48 percent saying that it should not. The poll shows a massive partisan divide on both questions. Two-thirds of Democrats and just under half of independents say they support legal same-sex marriage, compared to less than 3 in 10 Republicans. Only 15 percent of conservative Republicans want same-sex marriages to be legal, while 46 percent of moderate Republicans say they are in favor. ___ SUPPORT DIPS FOR WEDDING BUSINESSES REFUSING SERVICE The poll shows that a slim majority of Americans (52 percent) say that wedding-related businesses in states where same-sex marriage is legal should be allowed to refuse service to gay and lesbian couples because of religious objections. That’s down slightly since the beginning of February, when another AP-GfK poll found 57 percent of Americans in support of allowing wedding-related businesses to refuse service. The earlier poll was conducted before a public outcry forced the state of Indiana to add protections for gays and lesbians to its recently passed Religious Freedom Restoration Act, which critics charged was intended to allow discrimination against LGBT people. That drop appears to have been driven by Democrats, 45 percent of whom supported allowing businesses to refuse service in the earlier poll, while 38 percent say so now. About three-quarters of Republicans say wedding-related businesses should be allowed to refuse service, along with 45 percent of independents. ___ LESS SUPPORT FOR NON-WEDDING BUSINESSES The new AP-GfK survey shows Americans are less likely to support allowing a non-wedding related business to refuse service to a gay or lesbian couple. Just 40 percent of poll respondents asked a similar question that did not mention weddings think businesses should be allowed to refuse service for religious reasons, while 57 percent think that should not be allowed. Support for allowing businesses to generally refuse service to gays was at least slightly lower than for wedding-related businesses to refuse service among Democrats, Republicans and independents, although a majority of Republicans (63 percent) still said a business of any kind with religious objections should be allowed to refuse service to same-sex couples. ___ RELIGIOUS LIBERTIES OVER GAY RIGHTS Although most Americans aren’t willing to give just any business the right to refuse service to LGBT people, most say that it’s more important for the government to protect religious liberties than the rights of gays and lesbians if the two come into conflict, by a 56 percent to 40 percent margin. More than 8 in 10 Republicans say it’s more important to protect religious liberties than gay rights. On the other hand, 6 in 10 Democrats think protecting gay rights is more important. Just a quarter of Americans call gay rights a very or extremely important issue to them personally, while half call religious liberties a very or extremely important issue. ___ DIVISION OVER OBAMA’S HANDLING OF GAY RIGHTS The poll finds that Americans are evenly divided on how President Barack Obama is handling gay rights, with 48 percent saying they approve and 49 percent saying they disapprove. A majority (54 percent) approve of how Obama is handling religious liberties. On both issues, Democrats hold at least a slight advantage over Republicans on which party Americans trust most to handle gay rights issues. Thirty-one percent of Americans say they trust Democrats more to handle gay rights issues, while only 14 percent trust Republicans more. But a third of Americans say they don’t trust either party to handle gay rights, with another 20 percent saying they trust both equally. On religious liberties, 28 percent say they trust Democrats more and 21 percent trust Republicans more, with 23 percent trusting both equally and 26 percent trusting neither. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,077 adults was conducted online April 23-27, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Feb 26 AP-GfK Poll: GOP’s Jeb Bush working to reassert conservative credentials By STEVE PEOPLES and THOMAS BEAUMONT OXON HILL, Md. (AP) — As Florida’s governor, Jeb Bush was among the nation’s most conservative state chief executives. He’s quietly embarking on work to convince the right flank of the Republican Party that he would be that same kind of conservative in the White House. Eight years removed from office, Bush is viewed by some conservatives as a squishy moderate: a member of the GOP’s most established family with toxic positions on immigration and education standards. For that reason, perhaps none of the likely 2016 candidates has more to gain than Bush at this week’s Conservative Political Action Conference, the nation’s largest annual conference of conservative activists. “The challenge for him is this isn’t about yesterday, it’s about tomorrow,” said Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, which hosts CPAC. “The key is, what will he do if he’s president of the United States, and does he have a message that will appeal to conservatives?” Bush speaks at CPAC on Friday, and amid his aggressive fundraising efforts nationwide, his team and key backers are also taking steps to remind the party of his history as a conservative in office. In phone calls and private meetings, Bush’s team is reviving old alliances with top social and economic conservatives, broadening his network of conservative opinion leaders and trying to quiet his more aggressive critics. Al Cardenas, a longtime Bush supporter and former chairman of the American Conservative Union, said it would take Bush six to eight months to “totally set the record straight.” “As I’ve told the governor, the key word is patience,” Cardenas said. “I can tell you as a matter of fact those meetings have begun to be placed on the calendar and are beginning to take place. He wants leaders of the movement to be comfortable with his leadership.” Cardenas and other Bush allies say the problem is one of misperception, as conservatives of a new era are simply less familiar with his record as Florida governor. Aides say that while in office from 1999 to 2007, Bush was among the first state executives to take on teachers unions, lowered taxes each year and signed Florida’s “stand your ground” gun law. He was a hero among social conservatives for his actions to keep Michael Schiavo from removing the feeding tube from his brain-damaged wife, Terri. Today’s criticism centers almost entirely on Bush’s support for Common Core education standards and an immigration policy that would create a path to citizenship for people living in the country illegally. He is also hurt by lingering resentment over the rise in government spending during brother George W. Bush’s administration. Skeptics were reminded of their misgivings late last year, when Bush said a Republican might need to “lose the primary to win the general,” viewed by some as a swipe at the heavy influence of conservatives in picking the party’s White House nominee. Just four in 10 self-identified conservatives and tea party supporters rated Bush favorably in an Associated Press-GfK poll conducted earlier this month. There was evidence, too, of anti-Bush sentiment in the crowded hotel lobbies Thursday as thousands of activists gathered for CPAC. “I have not seen a single Jeb Bush button here,” said Neil McGettigan, 25, of New Jersey. “Honestly, I think the media’s more excited about him than anyone here.” As they privately court prominent conservatives, Bush’s confidants are also encouraging him to outline his conservative bona fides more publicly. Longtime Bush donor Al Hoffman said he recently told the governor he needs to openly explain how his positions on immigration and Common Core are in line with conservative economic principles. Bush’s team is also trying to win over some of his most aggressive critics. They include Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist, who praises Bush’s economic record as Florida governor, but regularly attacks his refusal to sign a pledge not to raise taxes if elected president. Bush is one of the only top-tier GOP presidential contenders not to sign. “I’ve had a bunch of people from Jeb’s world call me on behalf of the campaign,” Norquist said. “There are many things he did well as governor. … But it’s all about the pledge. It makes you wonder about whether he’s a team player.” Some conservatives need no convincing. Bush already enjoys formal and informal support from a growing network of well-connected conservative leaders with whom he maintains regular contact. “It’d be hard to be better than Bush on the life issue,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, a national group that advocates for social conservative values and supports candidates who oppose abortion. “He’s said many times — said it to me — that he can be counted on.” While Schlapp won’t formally endorse a presidential candidate as leader of the American Conservative Union, he said Bush had “sterling conservative credentials” as Florida governor and “took prominent conservative positions in a battleground state.” “Conservatives play a large role in determining who the Republican nominee is,” said Schlapp, who served as political director in Bush’s brother’s White House. “People will forgive him if they connect to him when he makes his pitch. I think that’s what’s critical.” ___ Associated Press writers Jill Colvin and AP news survey specialist Emily Swanson contributed to this report from Washington. Beaumont reported from Palm Beach, Florida. ___ Follow Steve Peoples and Thomas Beaumont on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/sppeoples and http://twitter.com/tombeaumont Feb 23 Kayla Mueller’s brother: Swap with Taliban raised IS demands PRESCOTT, Ariz. (AP) — The brother of an American woman who was killed after spending months as a hostage of Islamic State militants says Kayla Mueller’s situation worsened after the government traded five Taliban commanders for a captive U.S. soldier. The militants increased their demands after the May swap for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, Eric Mueller told NBC’s “Today” in an interview that aired Monday. “That made the whole situation worse because that’s when the demands got greater,” he said. “They got larger. They realized that they had something.” Mueller’s death was confirmed Feb. 10 by her family and U.S. officials. The Islamic State group claimed she died in a Jordanian airstrike, but U.S. officials have not confirmed that. The Pentagon said it didn’t know how she was killed. The 26-year-old international aid worker, who grew up in Prescott, Arizona, was captured in August 2013 after leaving a Doctors Without Borders hospital in Aleppo, Syria. Mueller’s brother and parents spoke to “Today” host Savannah Guthrie. The family has declined repeated requests for an interview with The Associated Press. Mueller’s father, Carl Mueller, said that the United States’ willingness to swap for Bergdahl but not pay ransom or allow ransom to be paid for his daughter “was pretty hard to take.” “I actually asked the president that question when we were in the White House,” he said without elaborating. Mueller’s parents said in the interview that the U.S. government put policy ahead of American lives. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Monday that the Mueller family had been put in a difficult position by the U.S. policy against making concessions to terrorists, but he defended it as being in the best interests of the nation. “The president is confident that his administration did do everything that was possible within the confines of that policy — using our military might, using our intelligence capability, using our diplomatic influence — to try to secure the safe release and return of Kayla Mueller,” Earnest said. A recent Associated Press-GfK poll found that only 3 in 10 Americans think the United States should pay a ransom to save an American hostage overseas, even if it’s the only way to rescue the hostage. A quarter of Americans say there are circumstances when the United States should directly negotiate with a terrorist group. The poll of 1,045 adults was conducted online Jan. 29-Feb. 2. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The Obama administration has defended the Bergdahl swap. Some U.S. lawmakers were outraged by the exchange of five Taliban commanders held at the Guantanamo Bay prison for the Idaho native who left his post in Afghanistan and was captured and held by the Taliban for five years. The Joint Chiefs of Staff unanimously supported the exchange, insisting that the United States has a sacred commitment to men and women who serve that it never will leave anyone behind on the battlefield. Feb 22 AP-GfK Poll: Most back Obama plan to raise investment taxes By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — The rich aren’t taxed enough and the middle class is taxed too much. As for your taxes, you probably think they’re too high as well. Those are the results of an Associated Press-GfK poll that found that most people in the United States support President Barack Obama’s proposal to raise investment taxes on high-income families. The findings echo the populist messages of two liberal senators — Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont — being courted by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party to run for president in 2016. The results also add weight to Obama’s new push to raise taxes on the rich and use some of the revenue to lower taxes on the middle class. Obama calls his approach “middle-class economics.” It’s not flying with Republicans in Congress, who oppose higher taxes. But Bob Montgomery of Martinsville, Virginia, said people with higher incomes should pay more. “I think the more you make the more taxes you should pay,” said Montgomery, who is retired after working 40 years at an auto dealership. “I can’t see where a man makes $50,000 a year pays as much taxes as somebody that makes $300,000 a year.” According to the poll, 68 percent of those questioned said wealthy households pay too little in federal taxes; only 11 percent said the wealthy pay too much. Also, 60 percent said middle-class households pay too much in federal taxes, while 7 percent said they paid too little. Obama laid out a series of tax proposals as part of his 2016 budget released this month. Few are likely to win approval in the Republican-controlled Congress. But if fellow Democrats were to embrace his ideas, they could play a role in the 2016 race. One proposal would increase capital gains taxes on households making more than $500,000. In the survey, 56 percent favored the proposal, while only 16 percent opposed it. Democrats, at 71 percent, were the most likely to support raising taxes on capital gains. Among Republicans and independents, 46 percent supported it. Obama’s other tax plans didn’t fare as well. About 27 percent said they favored making estates pay capital gains taxes on assets when they are inherited, and 36 percent opposed it. Just 19 percent said they supported the president’s aborted plan to scale back the tax benefits of popular college savings plans, 529 accounts, named after a section in federal tax law. Obama withdrew the proposal after Republicans and some Democrats in Congress opposed it. “I think that’s a poor idea,” said Jamie Starr of suburban Atlanta. “Being that I’m a mother of five children, that is a wonderful program.” “That’s kids trying to make their own away in this world without having student loans,” she said. Obama’s proposal to levy a new tax on banks was supported by 47 percent of those surveyed. Only 13 percent opposed it, while 36 percent were undecided. It’s tax season, that time of the year when people are confronted by their obligations to the government. The poll found that 56 percent of us think our own federal taxes are too high, and 4 percent said they pay too little. If taxes are increased, a slight majority said the additional money should help pay down the national debt. Using the money to cut other taxes or fund government programs were less popular options. Republicans, in general, are more likely than Democrats to oppose higher taxes, except when it comes to low-income families. Only 19 percent of respondents said low-income families pay too little in federal taxes, but there was a significant split between the political parties. Just 10 percent of Democrats said low-income families pay too little, while 33 percent of Republicans said they don’t pay enough. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the poorest 20 percent of households paid less than 1 percent of all federal taxes in 2011, the latest year for data. The top 10 percent paid more than half of all federal taxes. That’s OK, said Sen. Sanders, an independent from Vermont, because wealthy people have seen their incomes soar while the rest of the country’s wages have been much more flat. “Most people understand that at a time when the rich are becoming much richer, the middle class is continuing to disappear,” Sanders said. “And people also understand that the very wealthy and large corporations are able to take advantage of huge loopholes, which enable them not to pay their fair share of taxes.” Obama has been pushing to raise taxes on the rich since his first campaign for president in 2008. He has had some success. In January 2013, Obama persuaded Republicans in Congress to let income tax rates go up for families making more than $450,000 a year. It was part of a deal that made permanent a large package of tax cuts first enacted under Republican President George W. Bush. Some liberals are looking for a candidate to push for higher taxes on the rich in the 2016 race. Sanders and Democrat Warren would fit the profile, though Warren says she is not running for president and Sanders says he has not made up his mind. Among Democrats, Hillary Rodham Clinton is seen as the front-runner for the nomination; she has yet to make her candidacy official. Clinton hasn’t offered specifics on how she would approach taxes as a candidate. But she offered a glimpse of her views following Obama’s State of the Union Address in January, when she tweeted that Obama “pointed way to an economy that works for all. Now we need to step up & deliver for the middle class. #FairShot #FairShare.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,045 adults was conducted online Jan. 29-Feb. 2, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Stephen Ohlemacher on Twitter: http://twitter.com/stephenatap Feb 19 AP-GfK Poll: Most Americans favor a higher minimum wage By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans support increasing the minimum wage, as well as requiring employers to provide paid sick leave and parental leave, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. All three were proposed by President Barack Obama during his recent State of the Union address as ways to increase protections for American workers. But the poll also found that most Americans don’t approve of the job Obama is doing helping the middle class. Here are five things to know about public opinion on Obama’s workplace proposals: ___ PAID SICK LEAVE AND HIGHER WAGES GET STRONG SUPPORT Proposals to increase the federal minimum wage, as well as to require employers to give paid leave to their employees, find few objections among Americans as a whole. Six in 10 Americans favor raising the minimum wage, including nearly half who are strongly in favor, the AP-GfK Poll shows, while only 2 in 10 are opposed. Six in 10 also favor requiring all employers to give paid time off to employees when they are sick, while two-thirds favor requiring all employers to give time off to employees after the birth of a child. Among Republicans, about half support requiring employers to give paid sick leave and 55 percent support a requirement for paid parental leave. But the minimum wage divides Republicans more closely, with only 4 in 10 in favor, 31 percent opposed and 27 percent not leaning either way. Half of moderate-to-liberal Republicans, but just a third of conservative Republicans, favor a minimum wage increase. About 8 in 10 Democrats and a majority of independents favor each of these workplace proposals. ___ MOST DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA’S HANDLING OF MIDDLE CLASS, POOR Obama’s workplace proposals were part of a set of measures he says will help strengthen the middle class. Most Americans see that as a valuable goal, with 72 percent saying the government does too little to help the middle class. Slightly fewer — about 6 in 10 — say the government does too little to help the poor, and more than half think too little is done to help the unemployed. (Two-thirds say the government is doing too much to help the wealthy.) Those who think the government isn’t doing enough to help the middle class or the poor are especially likely to support raising the minimum wage and requiring companies to offer paid leave. But the poll finds most Americans disapprove of how Obama is handling helping both groups. Still, the poll finds Americans tend to trust Democrats over Republicans to help the middle class by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, and trusted Democrats over the GOP to help the poor by a nearly 3-to-1 margin. ___ FEWER SEE NEED FOR NEW GENDER EQUALITY LAWS Forty-eight percent of Americans think current laws to ensure that men and women are treated equally in the workplace are about right, more than the 41 percent who think the government needs to enact more laws to ensure equal treatment. Another 7 percent would repeal existing laws. Nearly half of women (48 percent) say the government needs more laws to ensure workplace equality between men and women, but only 35 percent of men say the same. ___ GENDER DIVIDES DEMOCRATS, MODERATES Among Republicans, men and women are about equally unlikely to support additional workplace equality laws, with more than 6 in 10 Republicans of both men and women saying current laws are about right. But among Democrats, women are more supportive of new workplace equality laws than men, 66 percent to 49 percent. Overall, about 6 in 10 Democrats say new laws are necessary. Among those who consider themselves political moderates, too, there is a gender gap on the issue, with 53 percent of moderate women and only 32 percent of moderate men saying new laws are necessary. ___ MAJORITY FAVOR FREE COMMUNITY COLLEGE More than half of Americans — 56 percent — favor a plan put forward by Obama for the government to pay for community college for any student who maintains a certain grade point average and makes progress toward earning a degree, the AP-GfK poll shows. Three-quarters of Democrats, half of independents and a third of Republicans favor the proposal. Nearly half of moderate and liberal Republicans, but only 3 in 10 conservative Republicans, are in favor of the community college proposal. Nearly 6 in 10 Americans think the government doesn’t do enough to help students, the poll found. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,045 adults was conducted online Jan. 29-Feb. 2, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 10 AP-GfK Poll: White House asking authorization for military to fight IS By DAVID ESPO and NEDRA PICKLER WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House circulated a proposal Tuesday to authorize the Pentagon to fight Islamic State terrorists without an “enduring offensive combat” role, an ambiguous phrase designed to satisfy lawmakers with widely varying views on the need for U.S. ground operations. Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J, describing the proposal to reporters, said President Barack Obama would seek an authorization for the use of force that would expire after three years. It would end the approval for operations in Iraq that Congress passed in 2002. Menendez spoke after he and other Democratic senators met privately with top White House aides, on the eve of an anticipated formal request for legislation from the president. “Hopefully there will not be a significant delay in Congress acting,” said White House press secretary Josh Earnest. The meetings unfolded against a fresh reminder of the threat posed by terrorists who occupy large areas of Syria and Iraq — the confirmed death of a 26-year-old American aid worker who had been held hostage by the group. Obama pledged to bring anyone responsible for Kayla Mueller’s captivity and death to justice “no matter how long it takes.” Of immediate concern was a legislative struggle — the search for a compromise that could satisfy Democrats who oppose the use of American ground forces in the fight against IS, and Republicans who favor at least leaving the possibility open. Menendez, in describing the White House’s opaque formulation, said it remained subject to modification. “That’s where the rub will be” as the White House tries to win approval for the legislation, he said. One influential Republican, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, said it was “bizarre” for Obama to be asking lawmakers to limit his own power as commander in chief. A senior Democrat, Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland, said she has significant questions about the president’s proposal. “I don’t know what the word ‘enduring’ means. I am very apprehensive about a vague, foggy word,” she said. Menendez also said it was not yet clear if the proposal would cancel a 2001 authorization for the use of force that Congress approved shortly after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Republicans control both houses of Congress, and presidents generally court bipartisan support for legislation of the type Obama now seeks. Several other lawmakers who were briefed in earlier meetings, said the president would likely seek legislation targeted exclusively against the fighters seeking establishment of an Islamic state, wherever they are and whatever name they use. Public sentiment indicates general support for the airstrikes that have been underway for months, but less for the use of American ground troops on the heels of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. In an AP-GfK poll taken in late January and early February, 58 percent of those surveyed said they favor U.S. involvement in airstrikes, which Obama ordered months ago. Only 31 percent backed deployment of U.S. troops on the ground. Apart from the midday meeting with Democrats in the Capitol attended by White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough, some Republicans expressed concern with other elements of the administration’s emerging proposal. Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., said administration officials had told him it would not provide for the protection of U.S.-trained Syrian rebel troops on the ground in the event of an air attack by Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar Assad. “It’s an unsound military strategy. I think it’s immoral if the authorization doesn’t allow for us to counter Assad’s air power,” he said. There was little evident dispute in Congress that new legislation was needed, both to replace outdated authorization and also to underscore a bipartisan desire to defeat the terrorists seeking an Islamic state. The group has seized territory in Syria and Iraq, imposed a violent form of Sharia law and beheaded several hostages from the United States and other Western countries. Last week, it distributed a horrifying videotape showing the killing-by-burning of a Jordanian pilot. Mueller’s death was the latest event to produce calls for retaliation. Among members of Obama’s party, Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said during the day that some rank-and-file lawmakers want to set geographic limits and restrict the types of forces that can be used. “They want some time limit so we can reconsider at some point in time, whether it’s 24 months, 36 months, 48 months,” he said at a news conference. Republicans praised Obama’s willingness to seek legislation, up to a point. “This president, you know, is prone to unilateral action. But when it comes to national security matters, and particularly now fighting this barbaric threat — not only the region but to our own security — I think it’s important to come to Congress and get bipartisan support,” said John Cornyn of Texas, the Senate’s second-ranking Republican leader. Many Republicans have said they prefer legislation that at least permits the use of ground troops if Obama decides they may be necessary. Some, including McCain, have gone further, saying ground troops are needed if the Islamic State fighters are to be defeated. Obama so far has relied on congressional authorizations that President George W. Bush used to justify military action after 9/11. He said last year he had the legal authority necessary to deploy more than 2,700 U.S. troops to train and assist Iraqi security forces and conduct ongoing airstrikes against targets in Iraq and Syria. ___ Associated Press writers Andrew Taylor, Laurie Kellman and Alan Fram contributed to this report. Feb 08 AP-GfK Poll: Most now approve of Obama’s job on unemployment By EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans’ views of President Barack Obama have improved slightly in the past two months, and opinions are more positive about the direction of the country and the health of the economy, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds. A slim majority now approves of the way Obama is handling unemployment, according to the poll, conducted before Friday’s release of a surprisingly strong jobs report. Forty-seven percent of those surveyed approve of how Obama is doing his job, compared with 41 percent in December, and 51 percent approve of his handling of unemployment, compared with 44 percent before. Nearly half say the economy is good now, while 41 percent thought that in December. In December 2013, only one-third called the economy good. Approval of the way Obama is handling the economy improved slightly, 41 percent to 45 percent, over the past two months. Friday’s report showed that U.S. employers added 257,000 jobs in January, and hourly wages grew by 12 cents to $24.75, the biggest gain since September 2008. Hourly pay has increased 2.2 percent in the past year. “We’ve come a long way these past six years since we suffered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression,” Obama said Friday in Indianapolis. “In 2014, our economy created more than 3.1 million jobs, and that’s the best year of job growth since the 1990s,” adding that “America is poised for another good year.” Despite the increase in jobs, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent, largely because more people began looking for jobs. An increase in the number of job hunters can indicate that people are more confident in their ability to find work, even if the official unemployment rate goes up. But people still feel that their own recovery is lagging, the poll shows, with only 35 percent saying their own family has completely or mostly recovered from economic downturn. Just 27 percent see the job market where they live as being most of the way to recovery, far less than the number that thinks big businesses (55 percent) and the stock market (53 percent) have bounced all the way back. People also fear the possibility of another downturn. Three-quarters say the government has not put the right rules and regulations in place to stop another recession from occurring. Obama has been keen to take credit for the improving economic landscape, arguing that new financial regulations, an early boost in government spending and the bailout of the auto industry under his watch were essential to the recovery. Economic concerns remain at the top of Americans’ minds, the AP-GfK poll shows, with 9 in 10 calling the economy a very or extremely important issue, significantly more than any other issue asked about in the poll. The poll finds that people are slightly more likely to trust Democrats than Republicans on handling economic issues, 33 percent to 28 percent. Improving views of the president also came with a small increase in the percentage that thinks the country is headed in the right direction — 39 percent compared with 33 percent in December. Much of that improvement was among Democrats, two-thirds of whom now think the country is headed in the right direction. Improved ratings among Democrats appeared to boost Obama’s approval rating. Bolstered by lower unemployment, greater consumer confidence and evidence of a rise in his approval ratings, Obama has made an aggressive start to his final two years in office even after November’s elections gave control of Congress to Republicans. The White House hopes a stronger recovery gives Obama the credibility to confront Republicans with his own economic pitch. In spite of growing optimism about politics and the economy, 8 in 10 people questioned have little confidence that Obama and Republicans in Congress can work together to solve the country’s problems. Americans blame both sides for the perceived impasse. About half thinks Obama doesn’t compromise enough with Republicans to get things done, while 6 in 10 say Republicans don’t compromise enough with Obama. Fewer than 2 in 10 think either side compromises too much. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,045 adults was conducted online Jan. 29-Feb. 2, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Associated Press writers Jim Kuhnhenn and Christopher S. Rugaber contributed to this report. ___ Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Feb 05 AP-GfK Poll: Support of gay marriage comes with caveats By EMILY SWANSON and BRADY McCOMBS SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — While finding that Americans narrowly favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to legally marry, a new Associated Press-GfK poll also shows most believe wedding-related businesses should be allowed to deny service to same-sex couples for religious reasons. Roughly half the country also thinks local officials and judges with religious objections ought to be exempt from any requirement that they issue marriage licenses to gay and lesbian couples, according to the poll. That view of the same-sex marriage issue echoes that of the Mormon church. Last week, the church called on state legislatures to pass new laws that protect gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people from discrimination but also to protect the rights of those who assert their religious beliefs. David Kenney, a self-employed Catholic from Novi, Michigan, said he’s fine with same-sex marriage being legal. He’s among the 57 percent of Americans who said wedding-related businesses — such as florists — should be allowed to refuse service if they have an objection rooted in their religion. “Why make an issue out of one florist when there are probably thousands of florists?” asked Kenney, 59. “The gay community wants people to understand their position, but at the same time, they don’t want to understand other people’s religious convictions. It’s a two-way street.” Kenney isn’t alone. About a quarter of those who favor legal same-sex marriage also favor religious exemptions for those who issue marriage licenses, the poll finds, and a third say wedding-related businesses should be allowed to refuse service. Geri Rice, who lives near San Francisco and works in law firm management, strongly favors gay marriage. She’s torn about whether a public official with religious objections should be exempt from issuing a license but says she believes that business owners should be allowed to tell somebody no thanks. “I don’t like it,” Rice said, “but I think they have the right.” Whether a business can refuse service to someone is a matter of federal, state and local law. National gay-rights groups called the idea of trying to carve out religious exemptions in anti-discrimination statues, such as those proposed by leaders of the Mormon church, deeply flawed. James Esseks, who directs the LGBT project of the American Civil Liberties Union, said the First Amendment’s protection of religious freedom “does not give any of us the right to harm others, and that’s what it sounds like the proposal from the Mormon church would do.” The poll found that 44 percent of Americans favor and 39 percent oppose legal same-sex marriage in their own states, while 15 percent expressed no opinion. But the country is evenly divided, 48 percent to 48 percent, on which way the Supreme Court should rule when it decides the issue for the entire nation this spring. Gay marriage is legal in 36 states because of a flurry of recent federal court decisions. In Utah County, south of Salt Lake City, clerk Bryan Thompson says he has strong personal opinions on same-sex marriage, but he doesn’t think those should influence how he performs his duties. His office initially waited to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples in December 2013 after a federal judge in Utah struck down the state’s ban on gay marriage. Thompson said he had wanted more legal guidance from the state. “I have a responsibility as a civil servant to follow the dictates of the law, regardless of my personal feelings or preferences,” Thompson said. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,045 adults was conducted online Jan. 29-Feb. 2, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Swanson reported from Washington. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/EL_Swan Feb 04 AP-GfK Poll: US will back dissidents in Cuba; poll shows support for thaw By BRADLEY KLAPPER and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration’s lead negotiator with Cuba is vowing to maintain U.S. support for democracy and human rights activists there as she pushes to restore embassies between the countries after a half-century interruption. An Associated Press-GfK poll finds broad support in the United States for warmer ties with Cuba. Forty-five percent of those surveyed backed the re-establishment of full diplomatic relations between the Cold War foes, with only 15 percent opposing. Sixty percent backed the end of the U.S. economic embargo of Cuba, with 35 percent supporting its continuation. Roberta Jacobson, the assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, is set to testify before the before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. On Tuesday she told a Senate panel that she planned more talks with her Cuban counterparts later this month. The administration had hoped to reach an agreement on new embassies by April’s Summit of the Americas in Panama, though that looks unlikely. Jacobson’s trip to Havana last month made her the highest-level U.S. official to visit Cuba’s capital in more than three decades. The talks encompassed the details of reconstituting embassies in each other’s capitals, managing migration flows and the much larger process of normalizing ties between governments with unresolved issues such as fugitives and financial claims. She said she raised several remaining barriers to full diplomatic relations during her Havana discussions, including U.S. resistance to any restrictions on American diplomats, shipments to the U.S. Interests Section and Cuban access to that building. Concrete progress was limited, however. This month’s talks are likely to be in Washington. Seizing on comments made by Josefina Vidal, Cuba’s top negotiator, after last month’s talks, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., asked Jacobson for a commitment that the U.S. would continue backing activists after any agreement. In an interview with The Associated Press, Vidal had tied the establishment of embassies to reduced U.S. support for dissidents. “We would not curtail the activities we’re doing now,” Jacobson answered. In Congress, positions on Obama’s sudden rapprochement with Cuba crisscross party affiliation and political interest. Countering Rubio among Republicans was Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, who wants to end all U.S. travel restrictions to Cuba. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, another Republican who supports the thaw, didn’t show up for the hearing. Among Democrats, California Sen. Barbara Boxer defended the Obama administration after Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey complained that the U.S. won no concessions from President Raul Castro’s government and demanded that Cuba extradite a woman convicted of killing a policeman from his state. Both Rubio and Menendez are Cuban-Americans. The AP-GfK poll found self-identified Democrats overwhelmingly in favor of restoring embassies and eliminating the U.S. embargo, which Obama has eased but only Congress can revoke. Among Republicans, the blocs are closer. Thirty-four percent want diplomatic relations, with 30 percent opposed. Forty-nine percent want the embargo lifted, with 50 percent believing it should stay. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,045 adults was conducted online Jan. 29-Feb. 2, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 03 AP Poll: The way to your Valentine’s heart may go through Mom By CONNIE CASS and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Guys, if you want to get the girl, try bringing flowers — to her mother. With Valentine’s Day coming up, it’s something to think about: Winning over mom may sound old-fashioned, but it’s still a smart strategy in today’s fast-changing, app-tapping, hookup-happy world of dating. In a new poll, 6 in 10 young women say when they’re thinking of getting serious with somebody, their mother’s approval is “extremely” or “very” important. “She makes the call,” said Jessica Wilhelm, a 19-year-old college student and self-described “mommy’s girl.” Wilhelm, from Brighton, Michigan, said she learned her lesson in high school when she tried going out with “the guy your parents don’t want.” “It’s not a good idea,” she said. “It doesn’t go smoothly for anybody.” A mere 6 percent of women under age 30 say their mother’s opinion matters “not at all” when dating, the Associated Press-WE tv poll found. Four in 10 young women would consider breaking up with someone mom didn’t like, according to the poll. Indeed, 16 percent say they’ve dumped a guy for that reason. Sons worry a little less than daughters about what mom thinks, the survey found. Still, half of 18-to-29-year-old men say her approval is extremely or very important when a relationship might get serious. Andy Lowney, 22, of DeWitt, Michigan, said if he were dating a woman his mother didn’t like, he wouldn’t ditch her immediately. “I’d see if it’s something you can change over time,” he said. “But long, long term, that’s going to be an issue.” Dads, the stereotypical gatekeepers for teenage daughters, still have some say, too. Half of young women and nearly 40 percent of young men put high importance on dad’s opinion when a romance is getting serious. A father’s view outranks what friends or siblings think, according to the poll. Kelsley Broomfield, 21, said her parents deploy different tactics when sizing up boyfriend material. Her mother, always friendly and chatty, asks the what-do-you-want-to-do-with-your-life questions. Dad listens and doesn’t say much, but he’ll signal his verdict later with a few subtle comments. “He’s kind of the test,” said Broomfield, of Englewood, New Jersey. Of course, dating a guy your parents like isn’t the same as dating a guy who’s like your parents. And it turns out men aren’t necessarily looking for a girl just like the girl that married dear old dad, either. Among men and women of all ages, a slim majority — 51 percent — think it’s better to go out with someone who’s the opposite of their parents, instead of someone who reminds them of the folks. And how do the folks feel about all this? We’re not asking for much, they insist, but couldn’t you just listen to us now and then? While few parents say they want a lot of sway over their grown children’s love lives, the vast majority of parents of all ages — 7 in 10 — would like to exert at least a little influence. Alas, fewer than 6 in 10 parents believe they have, or will have, any influence at all. Some may be underestimating their lifetime impact, however. L.D. Ross Jr. of Clinton, Maryland, said he made his expectations known early through years of dinner-table conversations about values and how to judge character. By the time his son and three daughters were old enough to date, he said, “they were very good about the people they selected to bring home.” Three of the four are married now, and he has five grandkids. “I don’t think anybody really wants to bring home somebody they know their parent is going to just totally disapprove of,” said Ross, 59. “It’s not going to be a happy family.” What about when he was going out as a young man, did he give his own parents cause to worry? No, Ross says, laughing — but they didn’t know about everything. “I was a sneaky little sucker,” he said. The poll of 1,315 adults was conducted ahead of the premiere of WE tv’s new show “Match Made in Heaven.” The poll was conducted online Dec. 19-21, 2014, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Connie Cass on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/ConnieCass Jan 13 AP-GfK Poll: An appetite for labeling genetically modified foods By MARY CLARE JALONICK WASHINGTON (AP) — A large majority of Americans support labeling of genetically modified foods, whether they care about eating them or not. According to a December Associated Press-GfK poll, 66 percent of Americans favor requiring food manufacturers to put labels on products that contain genetically modified organisms, or foods grown from seeds engineered in labs. Only 7 percent are opposed to the idea, and 24 percent are neutral. Fewer Americans say genetically modified ingredients are important to them when judging whether a food is healthy. About 4 in 10 said the presence of such ingredients was very or extremely important to them. That’s higher than the share who say it’s important to know whether a food is organic, and about on par with the share saying they consider the amount of protein in a food an important factor. For some, the debate over GMOs is about the food system overall. Andrew Chan of Seattle said he strongly favors labeling genetically modified ingredients, but those ingredients themselves aren’t most important to him. As a parent, he said his top concern is the abundance of processed foods. “GMO ingredients aren’t the number one thing, but more than likely within a processed food I’d find something that is a genetically modified product,” said Chan, 41. Genetically modified seeds are engineered to have certain traits, such as resistance to herbicides or certain plant diseases. Most of the country’s corn and soybean crop is now genetically modified, with much of that becoming animal feed. Modified corn and soybeans are also made into popular processed food ingredients such as corn oil, corn starch, high-fructose corn syrup and soybean oil. Currently, the Food and Drug Administration doesn’t require labeling of genetically modified foods, saying those on the market are safe. Consumer advocates backing labeling say shoppers have a right to know what is in their food, arguing not enough is known about their effects. The AP-GfK poll comes as several states have weighed in on the issue. Vermont became the first state to require labels for genetically modified foods last year, passing a law in May that will take effect mid-2016 if it survives legal challenges. Maine and Connecticut passed laws before Vermont, but those measures don’t take effect unless neighboring states follow suit. Ballot initiatives to require labeling were narrowly defeated in California, Washington and Oregon in recent years. The food industry and seed companies have aggressively fought attempts to force labeling, and have pushed a bill in Congress that would block those efforts. The bill by Rep. Mike Pompeo, R-Kansas, would reaffirm that such food labels are voluntary, overriding any state laws that require them. In a December congressional hearing on the issue, members of both parties were less inclined than the public to support labeling. Many questioned whether mandatory GMO labels would be misleading to consumers since there is little scientific evidence that such foods are unsafe. According to the AP-GfK poll, public support for labeling GMOs was bipartisan, with 71 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of Republicans favoring labeling. Even among conservative Republicans, more than 6 in 10 favor a labeling requirement. Jay Jaffe, a Republican from Philadelphia, says he strongly favors labeling even though he has no problem buying GMOs. “If they are cheaper and they taste right to me, I’ll buy it,” he says. Still, he thinks there should be accountability in the food industry. “It should be there and not in small print,” he said of GMO labels. “People should be able to make a choice.” Lucinda Morel, an independent who leans Democratic from Los Angeles, says she is very conscious of ingredients as a mother of three young children. She strongly favors labeling GMO foods. Morel said she is concerned that so many foods have become modified “before we can see any ramifications or any fallout, if there is any, from making such changes so quickly.” The food industry has faced pressure from retailers as consumer awareness of GMOs has increased. The retailer Whole Foods plans to label GMO products in all its U.S. and Canadian stores by 2018. And some companies have decided to remove the ingredients altogether. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,010 adults was conducted online Dec. 4-8, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Emily Swanson contributed to this report. ___ Follow Mary Clare Jalonick on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mcjalonick ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 31 AP-GfK Poll: Americans support menu labeling in restaurants, grocery stores By MARY CLARE JALONICK, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — More than half of Americans say they already have enough information at restaurants to decide whether they are making a healthy purchase. But they want even more. According to an Associated Press-GfK poll conducted in December, most Americans favor labeling calories on menus in fast food and sit-down restaurants. Most favor labels for prepared foods in the grocery store, too. The poll was conducted a little more than a week after the Food and Drug Administration announced new rules that will require restaurants and other establishments that sell prepared foods and have 20 or more locations to post the calorie content of food “clearly and conspicuously” on their menus, menu boards and displays. Companies will have until November 2015 to comply. ___ MAJORITY SUPPORT MENU LABELING A majority of Americans — 56 percent — favor requiring fast food restaurants to post calorie amounts on menus, while 54 percent favor the calorie postings at sit-down restaurants and 52 percent favor the labels at prepared food counters at grocery stores. Slightly fewer approved of requiring the calorie postings in other dining locations. Forty-nine percent of Americans supported posting calories on coffee shop menus and 44 percent approved of the postings on vending machines and at movie theaters. Forty-three percent favored calorie postings in amusement parks. All of those establishments will be required to post calorie amounts under the new FDA rules. Only about 1 in 10 Americans oppose labeling requirements at each of these places. The remainder said they neither favor nor oppose each requirement. ___ WOMEN, DEMOCRATS MOST SUPPORTIVE Women are more likely than men to say they favor labeling requirements at restaurants and prepared-food counters, though a majority of men support the labeling at fast food restaurants and around half support it at sit-down restaurants. College-educated respondents are more likely than those without a college education to favor labeling requirements at all of the establishments. The support appears to be relatively bipartisan. Democrats are significantly more likely to support the calorie postings than independents or Republicans, but a slim majority of Republicans still support calorie postings at restaurants. ___ PEOPLE CARE ABOUT CALORIES, SUGARS, FATS The idea behind the rules is that people may pass on that bacon double cheeseburger if they know it has hundreds of calories — and, in turn, restaurants may make their foods healthier to keep calorie counts down. The menus and menu boards will tell diners that a 2,000-calorie diet is used as the basis for daily nutrition, noting that individual calorie needs may vary. Additional nutritional information beyond calories, including sodium, fats, sugar and other items, must be available upon request. When they’re judging whether a food item is a healthy choice or not, 55 percent of Americans say how many calories it contains is very or extremely important to them. Same with sodium levels. Sugar and fat were slightly more important to health-conscious diners — 61 percent said sugar was very or extremely important when deciding on healthy purchases and 59 percent said the same about the amount of fat. Only 36 percent of Americans said they feel the level of vitamins and minerals is extremely or very important when making healthy purchases, and even fewer — 23 percent, less than a quarter — said the same about whether an item is organic. Women and people living in urban areas were most likely to make organic food a priority. ___ AMERICANS ARE ALREADY INFORMED Even though a majority favors more calorie labeling, most Americans say they already have enough information to decide whether they are making healthy purchases at restaurants. Sixty percent say they now have enough nutrition information at sit-down restaurants and 56 percent say they do at fast food restaurants. That number drops to 48 percent at prepared food counters in grocery stores. Around a third say they don’t have enough information to decide if they are making a healthy purchase in any of those places. When it comes to the grocery store, 75 percent of people say they have enough information to make a healthy choice. Unlike restaurants, where nutritional information is often a mystery, nutrition facts panels have been required on packaged foods since the 1990s. The FDA included prepared foods at supermarkets in the menu labeling rules as grocery stores have increasingly sold restaurant-like offerings. The menu labels were required by Congress as part of health overhaul in 2010. The FDA has said they are just one way to combat obesity, since Americans eat and drink about one-third of their calories away from home. Michael Taylor, FDA’s deputy commissioner of foods, said the agency knows there is strong interest from the public in the labeling. “It’s not a magic wand, but it will help people make better choices about their diets,” he said. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,010 adults was conducted online Dec. 4-8, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Emily Swanson contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Mary Clare Jalonick on Twitter at http://twitter.com/mcjalonick Dec 27 AP-GfK Poll: 5 things to know about the economy By JENNIFER AGIESTA and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) – Few issues in a presidential campaign come close to being as meaningful as the economy. The latest Associated Press-GfK poll offers a look at how the public feels about this issue, which touches nearly every aspect of American life. As the 2016 candidates get set to kick off their campaigns, here are five things to know about public opinion on the economy. ___ THE ECONOMY ISN’T A MONOLITH The economy, writ large, has been America’s top policy priority for the entirety of Barack Obama’s presidency, despite the slowly building recovery and the recent skyrocketing stock market. But focusing on this overall concern masks a distinction that matters to many Americans. Though negative perceptions of the economy overall are down compared with four years ago (57 percent describe it as “poor” compared with 83 percent who did in November 2010), Americans’ ratings of their own finances are actually a bit worse than they were back then (38 percent describe their household’s finances as poor, up from 30 percent in 2010). Young Americans, under age 30, have an exceptionally negative take on their finances, with nearly half describing them as poor. Along the same lines, while a majority of Americans say the stock market and big businesses have mostly recovered from the Great Recession, just 16 percent think small businesses have, 27 percent say the job market where they live is mostly recovered and only 34 percent say their family is largely back to normal. EDUCATION, LOCATION, INCOME LINKED TO IMPRESSION OF ECONOMY For some in America, the economy is humming along. Majorities of college graduates, urban residents and people with incomes of $100,000 or more say the economy is in good shape. By contrast, just 28 percent of rural residents, 35 percent without college degrees and 35 percent with incomes under $50,000 say it’s in good shape. Half of those with incomes under $50,000 and 42 percent of rural residents say they and their families haven’t yet recovered from the Great Recession. Rural residents feel the labor and real estate markets in their area have been particularly hard hit: 45 percent say their local real estate market has only recovered a little or not at all, while 53 percent say the same about their local job market. EXPECTATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER The poll finds an uptick in Americans’ hopes for their own finances and the nation’s finances in the coming year. In the new poll, 34 percent say they expect their household’s financial situation to improve over the next 12 months, better than the 27 percent saying so in October. And 38 percent think the overall economic situation in the country will improve in the coming year, up from 31 percent in October. On both measures, the share saying things would worsen dropped significantly. Still, 48 percent see stagnation ahead for themselves and 42 percent see sluggishness for the economy more broadly. INCHING TOWARD RECOVERY That expectation of stagnation may be because that’s what most Americans think the economy is doing now. Asked how the economy had changed in the last month, 60 percent said it stayed about the same. Nearly a quarter think it improved, while 14 percent say it’s gotten worse. Those figures are slightly rosier than in October, when 24 percent said things had worsened. But the majority saying things are staying the same has held over two years of AP-GfK polls, with one exception during the partial government shutdown in October 2013 when the share saying things got worse spiked to 45 percent. LITTLE FAITH IN WASHINGTON TO IMPROVE THINGS Who can turn things around? Very few think it’s Washington. Two-thirds of Americans say it’s unlikely that the newly elected Republican majority in Congress will be able to improve the economy in the next two years, and 6 in 10 say Obama won’t be able to either. Three in 10 say they don’t even trust either party to handle the economy. But Americans don’t completely discount that Washington can help: 52 percent say the government generally did a decent job helping the country recover from the Great Recession. A scant 10 percent, however, say that Washington did a “very good” job lifting the economy out of recession. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,010 adults was conducted online Dec. 4-8, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: -http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 26 AP-Times Square poll: Americans optimistic for 2015, give mixed reviews to 2014 By EMILY SWANSON and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are closing out 2014 on an optimistic note, according to a new Associated Press-Times Square Alliance poll. Nearly half predict that 2015 will be a better year for them than 2014 was, while only 1 in 10 think it will be worse. There’s room for improvement: Americans give the year gone by a resounding ‘meh.’ Here’s what Americans thought of 2014: GAINS AT HOME, SLIPS ABROAD On a personal level, about a third (34 percent) think 2014 was better than 2013, while 15 percent say 2014 was worse and half see little difference. Slightly fewer feel their year was a step down from the previous one than said so in 2013, when an AP-Times Square poll found 20 percent thought 2013 was worse than 2012. Americans are slightly more likely than they were a year ago to believe that the current year was better than the last for the United States— 30 percent say so this year, while 25 percent said so in 2013. On the other hand, Americans are more likely than in the 2013 poll to say this year was worse than last for the world as a whole, with 38 percent saying so now after 30 percent said so a year ago. THREE STORIES SHARE TOP SPOT Americans are divided on the most important news event of 2014, with the rise of the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, protests over the killings of black men including Michael Brown and Eric Garner by police officers, and the Ebola outbreak each named by about 1 in 10 Americans. In a separate Associated Press survey of news directors and editors, the killings of unarmed men by police stand out more clearly as the top story, with 22 of 85 respondents choosing it as the top news, about twice as many as the Islamic State or Ebola stories. Among the public, Democrats are most likely to name the unrest over Brown and Garner’s deaths as most important (14 percent), while Republicans are most likely to list the rise of the Islamic State (16 percent). Non-whites are more apt to cite the protests around Brown and Garner’s deaths than whites (14 percent among non-whites, 8 percent among whites). The poll was conducted before the shooting deaths of two New York City police officers by a man who threatened retaliation for the police killings of unarmed black men. Asked separately to rate the importance of 10 key stories, majorities call the expansion of the Islamic State militant group, the Ebola outbreak and the U.S. midterm elections extremely or very important stories. Nearly half rate immigration as that important, while 43 percent say so of the Michael Brown and Eric Garner stories. Only a third think the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, the situation between Russia and Ukraine, or the rising number of states with legal same-sex marriage were deeply important stories. THE YEAR IN POP CULTURE Few Americans rate this year’s crop of pop culture events as memorable, with one big exception: The death of Robin Williams, and the ensuing discussion of mental health issues. About two-thirds call that a memorable event. Slightly more say it was more memorable (39 percent) than forgettable (34 percent) that CVS stopped selling cigarettes, and they’re divided equally on whether the ubiquitous ice bucket challenge was memorable (37 percent) or forgettable (37 percent). Thirty percent say the pitching performance of Mo’ne Davis, the first female pitcher to win a Little League World Series game, was memorable, while 41 percent say it was forgettable. Women are more likely than men to see Davis’s performance as memorable, 33 percent of women say so versus 26 percent of men. Another sports first: Michael Sam becoming the first openly gay player drafted into the NFL, is rated forgettable by about half. Events rating as forgettable by a majority of Americans include the leak of hacked celebrity photos on Reddit, Ellen DeGeneres’s selfie at the Oscars, Taylor Swift going pop, and the marriages of George and Amal Clooney and Kim Kardashian and Kanye West. RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR About half of Americans plan to celebrate New Year’s Eve at home this year, while 2 in 10 say they’ll do so at a friend or family member’s home. Fewer than 1 in 10 plan to celebrate at a bar, restaurant or organized event, while about a quarter don’t plan to celebrate at all. Six in 10 Americans plan to watch the televised New Year’s Eve events in Times Square, including two-thirds of women and over half of men. ___ The AP-Times Square Alliance Poll of 1,017 adults was conducted online Dec. 12-14, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll is a cooperative effort between AP and the organizers of the Times Square New Year’s Eve Celebration, the Times Square Alliance and Countdown Entertainment. The Alliance is a nonprofit group that seeks to promote Times Square, and Countdown Entertainment represents the owners of One Times Square and the New Year’s Eve Ball Drop. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 22 AP-GfK Poll: Cards, gifts cross religious lines By JENNIFER AGIESTA and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Christmastime is here and a new poll reveals the cards and gifts that are part of celebrating the holiday are ubiquitous, even among those who don’t share the Christian beliefs behind the story of the Magi who gave the first Christmas gifts. According to the Associated Press-GfK poll, 77 percent of Americans plan to exchange gifts this holiday season and 48 percent will send greeting cards. The gift-giving set includes about 8 in 10 Christians and 73 percent of those who say they have no religious beliefs. Greeting cards also cross denominational lines, with 53 percent of Protestants, 55 percent of Catholics and 40 percent of those without religious beliefs saying they will send cards this year. Here’s a look at how Americans view this season’s greetings: ___ THE PHOTO CARD GENERATION Americans who aren’t religious are less likely to send cards because they tend to be younger, and young people are less apt to send cards, regardless of their religious beliefs. Fifty-two percent of non-religious Americans over age 50 plan to send cards, not far off the 57 percent of Protestants and 64 percent of Catholics in that age group who will send them. Young people are the least likely of all demographic groups to say they’ll send cards this year. Just 29 percent of Americans under age 30 plan to, compared with 64 percent of seniors. The young are also the least likely to receive cards. Two-thirds under age 30 receive five Christmas cards or less per year. Among seniors, just 18 percent receive five or fewer cards in a typical year. Those under-30s, raised in the age of email, are most likely to reject the concept of cards altogether. Asked what type of card they prefer to receive, 21 percent say none, thanks. Just 8 percent of seniors share that view. Younger adults who do like holiday cards are more likely to say they want a photo card, while the older set tends to prefer handwritten notes or Christmas letters. A third of those under age 50 say photo cards are their favorites, compared with 18 percent of those age 50 or older. Among those 50 or older, 54 percent prefer a pre-printed or boxed card with a note or a personal signature, compared with 36 percent of younger adults. Another 12 percent age 50 or older say they’d really like a Christmas letter. And regardless of age, no one embraces the holiday e-card: Just 2 percent say they want one of those. ___ MARRIAGE, GENDER GAPS ON CARDS AND GIFTS Women are more likely than men to say they will send seasonal greetings to friends or loved ones this year, with married women most likely of all to send a card full of holiday cheer. About two-thirds of married women said they will send out cards, compared with 52 percent of married men, 42 percent of unmarried women and just 31 percent of unmarried men. On the gift front, married people are more apt to give presents than those who aren’t married (82 percent plan to exchange gifts this year compared with 66 percent of those who have never been married), though the gap between men and women among married people is significantly smaller than the card gap (84 percent of married women plan to give gifts compared to 80 percent of married men). ___ HANDMADE VS. STORE BOUGHT D-I-Y is not on Americans’ wish list. Asked whether they prefer to receive a store-bought gift or a handmade one, Americans err on the side of the stores. By a 62 percent to 35 percent margin, people prefer their gifts to come from the store. Women (41 percent), rural residents (43 percent) and whites (38 percent) are most apt to favor handmade presents. When giving, however, the preference for store-bought wares is even stronger. Overall, 85 percent of Americans who will exchange gifts this year say they would rather buy a gift than make one. Women (17 percent) are still more likely than men to prefer handmade gifts. ___ HOW MANY STAMPS? When it comes to cards, Americans receive more than they give. Although 50 percent of Americans say they won’t send any cards this year, just 11 percent say they don’t typically receive any cards. Forty percent say they usually get more than 10 cards around the holidays. Among the 48 percent who say they will send a card this year, 50 percent say they will send fewer than 20 cards. Those who plan to send more drive up the average to about 30 cards per sender, including 11 percent who say they plan to send more than 50 cards this year, presumably including one for the postman. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,010 adults was conducted online Dec. 4-8, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: —http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Dec 19 AP-GfK Poll: Americans skeptical of commercial drones By JOAN LOWY and JENNIFER AGIESTA WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are skeptical that the benefits of the heralded drone revolution will outweigh the risks to privacy and safety, although a majority approve of using small, unmanned aircraft for dangerous jobs or in remote areas, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. By a 2-1 margin, those who had an opinion opposed using drones for commercial purposes. Only 21 percent favored commercial use of drones, compared with 43 percent opposed. Another 35 percent were in the middle. With a few narrow exceptions, the Federal Aviation Administration prohibits commercial use of drones but is about to propose regulations that will broaden the use of small ones. It may be two or three years before the rules take effect, but once they do thousands are expected to buzz U.S. skies. Congress may also step in next year to try to nudge the FAA to move faster. Drones are forecast to create 100,000 jobs and $82 billion in economic impact in the first 10 years they’re allowed, according to the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, a trade group. Only 3 percent of people say they’ve operated small drones, which are essentially the same as remote-controlled model aircraft. Support for using commercial drones was the weakest among women and seniors, while college graduates and wealthier people were more apt to favor it. Elliot Farber, 26, said drones are just the latest technological advancement and he doesn’t understand why anyone would oppose them. “It’s really wild to think about it,” said Farber, who works in a casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey. “It’s literally something you would see in a movie and now they’re talking about it like it’s a true possibility. I think it’s inevitable it will happen. I think it’s a great thing.” But Roberta Williams, 66, said she doesn’t believe “the average person should be allowed to just go out and get one to do whatever they want to do with it.” She worries people will put guns or other weapons on them and use them for sinister purposes. The reliability of drones is another concern. “This is still a remote-control vehicle, and those things go amok,” said Williams, a retired nonprofit organization manager who lives in Fort Collins, Colorado. Still, the survey showed many Americans see value in the use of drones for certain tasks, such as inspecting oil platforms and bridges. Majorities also said they favor using drones to help map terrain through aerial photography, and to monitor wildlife. But — Amazon take note — only 1 in 4 thinks using drones to deliver small packages is a good idea. Thirty-nine percent were opposed, and 34 percent were neutral on that question. Nearly the same share opposed using drones to take photographs or videos at weddings and other private events. A third opposed allowing farmers to use drones to spray crops, while another third supported it. Only 23 percent said they favored the recreational use of small drones. Ramona Jones, 65, said that if Amazon uses drones to deliver packages as it has proposed, delivery services like UPS, FedEx and the postal service won’t be far behind. She envisions skies crowded with drones running into each other and raining debris on people below. “It sounds futuristic, but how are they going to manage that?” said Jones, of Austin, Texas. “Just like we have cars on the highway … somebody is still going to hit somebody else.” Robert Waters, 54, a history professor at Ohio Northern University, said he favors commercial use of drones but has misgivings. “They could definitely improve people’s lives,” he said. “Of course, they could also make them miserable with the kind of spying that people could do on each other. It’s a double-edged sword.” Nearly three-fifths of those polled said they were extremely or very concerned that private operators could use drones in a way that violates privacy. The FAA is expected to propose restricting drones weighing less than 55 pounds to flights under 400 feet high, forbid nighttime flights, and require drones be kept within sight of their operators. It also may require drone operators to get pilot’s licenses, which would be controversial. Critics say the skills needed to fly a manned aircraft are different from those needed to operate a drone. But 64 percent support requiring the pilot’s licenses. Eddy Dufault, 58, a machinist and part-time wildlife photographer in Marlborough, Massachusetts, who is considering buying a drone, said he agrees with most of the restrictions, but opposes licensing. It can cost would-be pilots $15,000 for the needed flight training and practice flights, he said, adding it would be more appropriate to require operators to attend a few classes and pass a drone flight test. “There are people who are going to abuse it no matter what you do,” he said, “but 99.9 percent of them won’t.” The poll of 1,010 adults was conducted online Dec. 4-8, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ___ Follow Joan Lowy on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/AP_Joan_Lowy and Jennifer Agiesta at http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta Dec 16 AP-GfK Poll: End game: No immigration deal, just divisions By ERICA WERNER WASHINGTON (AP) — A Congress that began with bright hopes for immigration legislation is ending in bitter divisions on the issue even as some Republicans warn that the political imperative for acting is stronger than ever for the GOP. In place of a legislative solution, President Barack Obama’s recent executive action to curb deportations for millions here illegally stands as the only federal response to what all lawmakers agree is a dysfunctional immigration system. Many Democrats are convinced Latino voters will reward them for Obama’s move in the 2016 presidential and Senate elections, while some Republicans fear they will have a price to pay. “If we don’t make some down payment toward a rational solution on immigration in 2015, early 2016, good luck winning the White House,” said Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, an author of the comprehensive immigration bill that passed the Senate last year with bipartisan support, but stalled in the GOP-led House. With the expiration of the 113th Congress this month, that bill will officially die, along with its path to citizenship for the 11 million immigrants in this country illegally. Immigration is certain to be a focus for the new, fully Republican-led Congress when it convenes in January — but there’s little expectation the GOP will make another attempt at comprehensive reforms. Instead, GOP leaders in the House and Senate have pledged to take action to block Obama’s executive moves, setting up a battle for late February when funding expires for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees immigration matters. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, has promised action on a border security bill as part of that. Whether Congress can do anything to stop Obama remains unclear, since he’s certain to veto any effort to undo his executive moves. It’s also not clear lawmakers could pass a border bill, or that Obama would sign it if they did. While some congressional Republicans are arguing for action on piecemeal reforms, most advocates are resigned to waiting until a new president takes office in 2017 for lawmakers to make another attempt at a comprehensive overhaul that resolves the central immigration dilemma — the status of the millions here illegally. “They had the best chance in a generation and they couldn’t get enough support from the Republican caucus,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, an immigrant advocacy group. “It may well be that they’re going to have to lose the White House and both chambers of Congress for us to get comprehensive immigration reform.” When Obama won a second term in 2012 with strong Hispanic and Asian support, many national Republican leaders decided they needed to support policies that would attract those growing blocs of voters. The Republican National Committee formally embraced support for comprehensive immigration reform as a guiding principle for the GOP. But legislative efforts stalled in the House as conservative Republicans balked at Boehner’s efforts to advance the issue. Last summer’s crisis over an influx of unaccompanied Central American minors arriving at the border caused shelter overloads and case backlogs, straining resources and creating the impression that the border was out of control — further souring political prospects for reform legislation. In absence of congressional efforts, Obama promised he would act on his own, and he made good on that shortly after last month’s midterm elections, announcing an array of changes that will include work permits and three-year deportation stays for some 4 million immigrants here illegally. It mostly applies to those who’ve been here more than five years and have kids who are U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents. The move inflamed Republicans, who have been fighting about it ever since, including a failed effort by Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, to block Obama in a Senate floor vote this past weekend. On Tuesday the dispute spilled over into debate on Obama’s nominee to lead the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, Sarah Saldana, the U.S. attorney in Dallas. She was confirmed 55-39 by the Senate over objections from Republicans who had initially supported her but turned against her because of her support for Obama’s executive actions. Meanwhile, some immigration advocates complained that the steps didn’t go far enough as Obama faced criticism from both sides of the political divide. A new Associated Press-GfK poll found that most Americans support allowing immigrants living in the country illegally a way to stay here lawfully. But only 43 percent of them think Obama was right to take executive action to make those changes, while 54 percent of them say he should have kept trying to make a deal with Republicans. Still, the poll also showed little sign of blowback for Obama. Although 57 percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of the immigration issue, that was down slightly from 63 percent in October. A group of 24 states joined in a federal lawsuit filed in Texas alleging that Obama overstepped his constitutional powers in a way that will only worsen the humanitarian problems along the southern U.S. border. And Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio is in federal court in Washington, contending that the policy is a magnet for more illegal entries into the country that will impose a burden on law enforcement. In a court filing late Monday, the Justice Department argued for dismissal of Arpaio’s case, saying he has failed to substantiate his claims. Congressional Republicans say that Obama’s actions created an even tougher climate for immigration legislation, but many Democrats and advocates contend that Republicans were terminally stalled on the issue anyway. Some Republicans question whether immigration legislation really is a political imperative for the GOP. “It’s really mixed out there — some people want a big immigration bill, others don’t,” said Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, a supporter of reform efforts. And two years after a “Gang of Eight” senators launched an immigration overhaul drive on Capitol Hill, some of those same players say they have no plans to initiate another such effort. “I’m not going to start it in the Senate,” said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. “We’ve tried that.” ___ Associated Press News Survey Specialist Emily Swanson and writer Pete Yost contributed to this report. Dec 14 AP-GfK Poll: Crunch time again for health insurance sign-ups By Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar WASHINGTON (AP) – President Barack Obama’s push to cover America’s uninsured faces another big test Monday. This time, it’s not only how the website functions, but how well the program itself works for millions who are starting to count on it. Midnight Monday, Pacific time is the deadline for new customers to pick a health plan that will take effect Jan. 1, and for current enrollees to make changes that could reduce premium increases ahead of the new year. HealthCare.gov and state insurance websites are preparing for heavy online traffic before the deadline, which gives consumers in the East three hours into Tuesday to enroll. Wait times at the federal call center started creeping up around the middle of last week, mainly due to a surge of current customers with questions about their coverage for next year. Many will face higher premiums, although they could ease the hit by shopping online for a better deal. Counselors reported hold times of 20 minutes or longer for the telephone help line. About 6.7 million people now have coverage through Obama’s signature law, which offers subsidized private insurance. The administration wants to increase that to 9.1 million in 2015. To do that, the program will have to keep most of its current enrollees while signing up more than 2 million new paying customers. People no longer can be turned down because of health problems, but picking insurance still is daunting for many consumers. They also have to navigate the process of applying for or updating federal subsidies, which can be complex for certain people, including immigrants. Many returning customers are contending with premium increases generally in the mid-to-high single digits, but much more in some cases. Consumers “understand it’s complicated but they appreciate the ability to get health insurance,” said Elizabeth Colvin of Foundation Communities, an Austin, Texas, nonprofit that is helping sign up low-income residents. “People who haven’t gone through the process don’t understand how complicated it is.” Last year’s open enrollment season turned into a race to salvage the reputation of the White House by fixing numerous technical bugs that crippled HealthCare.gov from its first day. With the website now working fairly well, sign-up season this year is a test of whether the program itself is practical for the people it is intended to serve. New wrinkles have kept popping up, even with seemingly simple features of the Affordable Care Act. For example, most current customers who do nothing will be automatically renewed Jan. 1 in the plan they now are in. At this point, it looks like that is what a majority intends to do. While that may sound straightforward, it’s not. By staying in their current plans, people can get locked into a premium increase and miss out on lower-priced plans for 2015. Not only that, they also will keep their 2014 subsidies, which may be less than what they legally would be entitled to for next year. Doing nothing appears to be a particularly bad idea for people who turned 21 this year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington group that advocates for low-income people. Researchers at the center estimate that 21-year-olds will see a 58 percent increase in the sticker price for their premiums just because they’re a year older. An age-adjustment factor used to compute premiums jumps substantially when a person turns 21. A 20-year-old whose premium was $130 per month in 2014 will see the premium climb to $205 a month in 2015, solely because of that year’s difference. Tax-credit subsidies can cancel out much or even all of the impact. But if consumers default to automatic renewal, their tax credits will not be updated and they will get the same subsidy as this year. “Even in the best possible scenario of how many people we can expect to come in, we will still see a substantial number of people defaulting,” said Judy Solomon, a health care policy expert at the center. She worries that some young adults may get discouraged and drop out. Reviews of HealthCare.gov and state health insurance exchanges are mixed. An Associated Press-GfK poll this month found that 11 percent of Americans said they or someone else in their household tried to sign up since open enrollment began Nov. 15. Overall, 9 percent said the insurance markets are working extremely well or very well. Twenty-six percent said the exchanges are working somewhat well, and 39 percent said they were not working well. The remaining 24 percent said they didn’t know enough to rate performance. So far it has been a frustrating experience for Marie Bagot, of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. She and her husband are in their 60s, but not yet old enough for Medicare. The husband, who works as a chef, will turn 65 around the middle of next year and qualify for Medicare. Bagot said they were happy with their insurance this year under Obama’s law. “As you get older, you worry about your health,” she said. “I was very pleased with the price we got.” But Bagot said she received a notice from her insurer that her current plan will not be available next year in her community. The closest alternative would involve a premium increase of more than $350 a month, even with their tax credit subsidy. After days of trying to find a comparable plan through the federal call center and after visiting a counselor, Bagot said she opted to keep their current coverage, while hoping costs go down after her husband joins Medicare. “I cannot afford it, but I’m going to try to,” she said. Monday is not the last chance for consumers like Bagot. Open enrollment doesn’t end until Feb. 15. ___ Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. Dec 10 AP-GfK Poll: Nearly 9 in 10 doubt Obama, GOP can break gridlock By JENNIFER AGIESTA and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans may not agree on much lately, but one opinion is nearly universal: There’s almost no chance that President Barack Obama, a Democrat, and the Republican Congress can work together to solve the country’s problems. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds just 13 percent of Americans are confident the leaders, separated by nearly 2 miles of Pennsylvania Avenue, can work together, while 86 percent have no such faith. That’s far more than the 58 percent who felt that way just after the 2010 midterm elections in which the tea party movement rose to prominence. The doubts cross party lines: Fewer than 1 in 5 Democrats or independents have confidence the two sides can cooperate. Republicans are even more pessimistic, with just 1 in 10 confident Obama and Congress can work together. Those who lack confidence spread the blame around: 41 percent say neither side would do enough to work together, 35 percent place more blame on the Republicans, 22 percent on the president. Neither side holds much hope things are going to get better, either. Just 16 percent think the president is likely to restore public trust in government in the next two years, while 20 percent feel congressional Republicans will. Robert Cole, 65, says both Democrats and Republicans deserve blame for Washington’s stalemate: “If you want to place the blame, it rests on the American voter.” “They’re not doing their jobs, and we as the electorate are stupid in sending the same people back and expecting things to change,” said Cole, a retiree who lives in Ocala, Florida. But not everyone sees cooperation as a positive. “In my view, the Republicans were doing what they needed to do to block a harmful agenda coming from the executive branch,” said Ron Tykoski, 42, a paleontologist from Nevada, Texas. What does the public think they’ll be able to do? A majority say Obama is likely to prevent Congress from repealing the health care law passed in 2010, while nearly half say the GOP is likely to block Obama’s executive order on immigration. Another 42 percent think the GOP will block or roll back Obama’s environmental regulations. Fewer think either side will be able to enact the policies on their agenda. Tamara Watson, 35, a high school teacher in West Columbia, South Carolina, said immigration and health care are the two issues where both sides do need to work together. She sees Republicans as the bigger roadblock. “They have fought him his entire term and a half now, and there’s so many of them now,” she said. “It’s going to be very difficult for (Obama) to work with them when there are so many of them versus so few of his party.” Political gridlock itself ranks pretty low on the issue scale, 47 percent call it extremely or very important compared with 83 percent who say the economy is important, 76 percent who consider health care a key issue and 64 percent who say unemployment is important. But the issue prompts Obama’s most negative ratings overall: 66 percent disapprove of his handling of gridlock and among Democrats, 47 percent disapprove. Approval ratings for the president and Congress are about the same as before the election, with 41 percent approval for Obama and 15 percent Congress. In general, however, the public expresses greater frustration with politics now than they did four years ago. Looking back on last month’s elections, 52 percent say they’re disappointed with the results while 50 percent say they’re frustrated. Both figures are up significantly since 2010. About a quarter, 27 percent, say they’re angry, compared with 16 percent in 2010. Just 37 percent say they’re hopeful when they think about the results of the elections, well below the 65 percent saying so after the 2010 elections, when the GOP took control of the House of Representatives, or the 74 percent who felt so when Obama was elected the nation’s first black president. Only 1 in 5 Americans under age 30 describe themselves as hopeful, fewer than any other age group. More Americans say they trust neither party to handle managing the federal government than said they trust either side over the other. Nearly a third of both Democrats and Republicans say they trust neither party to handle managing the federal government, along with almost 6 in 10 independents. But Cole says this hasn’t turned him away from politics. “As aggravating as it is, I’m still paying attention just to see if I can find somebody out there who is going to do more than talk about cooperating and find a way forward,” he said. The AP-GfK Poll of 1,010 adults was conducted online Dec. 4-8, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. ___ On Twitter, follow Jennifer Agiesta at http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta and Emily Swanson at http://www.twitter.com/el_swan . ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Nov 09 AP-GfK Poll: Higher bar for health law in 2nd sign-up season By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR WASHINGTON (AP) — With a bright look to its rebuilt website, version 2.0 of President Barack Obama’s health insurance overhaul represents another chance to win over a skeptical public. But more than possible computer woes lurk as HealthCare.gov’s second open enrollment season begins Nov. 15. The risks include an unproven system for those renewing coverage and a tax hit that could sting millions of people. Those tax issues are the result of complications between the health care law and income taxes, and they will emerge during next year’s filing season. “Things will not be perfect,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia M. Burwell, trying to set expectations. “We are aiming for a strong consumer experience, and it will be better.” The Obama administration cannot afford to repeat last year’s online meltdown. Congress will be entirely in Republican hands in 2015, and GOP lawmakers will be itching to build the case for repeal. The Supreme Court’s decision Friday to hear another challenge to the law is also casting a shadow. The health insurance exchanges offer taxpayer-subsidized private coverage to people who do not have access on the job. HealthCare.gov will serve 37 states, while the rest run their own markets. This new sign-up period will be the first time that renewal has been tried for current customers, and also overlaps with the first tax-filing season that the law’s requirements are in effect. On the plus side, premium increases are expected to be modest in many, though not all, states. New insurers have come into the market, promoting competition, and regulators now take a close look at anything above a 10 percent increase. The online application for most new customers is down to 16 screens from 76. Website security is better, thanks to aggressive monitoring. The government and insurers have added call center staff. The administration had said last week that consumers would be able to get an early peek at 2015 plans and premiums this weekend. It looked like that early goal was slipping. Officials said Sunday that window shopping would be available overnight, without giving a specific time. This year, the bar will be higher. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that 13 million people will be covered through federal and state insurance markets in 2015. That means retaining most of the 7 million people now covered and adding 6 million more. Many are skeptics who sat out last year’s campaign. One potential motivator: The law’s tax penalty for remaining uninsured is rising, to a minimum of $325 for 2015. “We have some momentum built up,” said Rachel Klein, enrollment strategist for Families USA, an advocacy group supporting the law. “We can build on that, but it is a somewhat higher bar to find all the people we need to help, because by definition, they are harder to reach.” An Associated Press-GfK poll found that 31 percent of those questioned expect the health insurance exchanges to work better, while 49 percent think they will work about the same. Also, 18 percent expect version 2.0 to be worse. Some of the potential enrollment pitfalls: —For those already signed up, coverage will renew automatically if you do nothing. Sounds good, but maybe not. You could miss out on lower premium options and get stuck with an outdated and possibly incorrect subsidy. Shop around, but don’t dally. You have until Dec. 15 to update your income information or change plans if you want to have everything in place by Jan. 1. —New customers, be advised: The Nov. 15-Feb. 15 open enrollment is half as long as last time, and it overlaps with the holidays. Try to get familiar with some of the basic health insurance trade-offs. A low-premium silver or bronze plan may not make sense if you’ll wind up with high out-of-pocket costs for the deductible and copayments. In that case, you might be better off going for the gold. Some of the tax complications lurking: —Most current customers are getting a tax credit to help with premiums. Those subsidies are tied to income, so you’ll have to file new forms with your 2014 taxes to prove you got the right amount. Too much subsidy and your tax refund will get dinged. Too little, and the government owes you. It’s bound to cause anxiety because many people depend on their tax refunds to pay bills. —If you remained uninsured in 2014, you risk a penalty that will be deducted from your tax refund. It starts at $95 for those uninsured all year. Millions of people may qualify for penalty waivers, but getting exemptions could be an ordeal. Some appear simple, but for others you’ll have to mail in an application and supporting documents. Melissa Dresler of Lexington, Kentucky, said she’s lucky that she got covered, but she also learned some lessons that should make her a better shopper this year. The climate change researcher unexpectedly found herself in need of a delicate operation. She woke up one day and something was wrong with her right eye. It turned out to be a detached retina. Her surgery cost well into five figures, and she paid about $1,000. The problem came when she had to go out-of-network because of a complication. To keep premiums in check, many plans restrict a patient’s choice. The follow-up corrective surgery cost her about $6,000. “I may gripe once in a while, but I am so happy with Obamacare,” said Dresler. “I feel so lucky I was covered.” She adds: “If I had known that I was going to have a major emergency then I would have certainly invested more in a better plan.” Oct 30 AP-GfK Poll: Economy, other issues overshadow abortion By NICHOLAS RICCARDI and JENNIFER AGIESTA DENVER (AP) — As a season of campaigning enters its final, intense weekend, a new Associated Press-GfK poll illustrates the challenge ahead for candidates and their allies trying to rally voters around traditional wedge issues such as abortion and gay marriage. This fall, voters just have other matters on their minds. Social issues are eclipsed by concerns about the economy, health care, the Islamic State group and Ebola, the poll finds. And hovering over each of these individual issues is a broad dissatisfaction with President Barack Obama and Republican leaders in Congress. Only 32 percent of likely voters called gay marriage an important issue, compared with 91 percent ranking the economy important, 78 percent with similar concerns about health care and 74 percent naming Ebola important. The issue that some Democrats have emphasized most of all — abortion rights — also has been a relatively low priority, with only 43 percent of likely voters in a September poll ranking it important. Yet women’s health and reproductive rights have been at the center of campaigns for U.S. Senate in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina and especially Colorado. There, half of the ads aired by Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and those backing his re-election have criticized his GOP opponent, Rep. Cory Gardner, on women’s health issues. They include a contention the 40-year-old congressman from eastern Colorado wants to ban some forms of birth control. “Democrats this year clearly think that all that you need is that silver bullet of social issues,” said Katy Atkinson, a GOP political official in Denver. “It’s not. You need more.” Gardner may have been able to parry the offensive by proposing that birth control pills be sold over-the-counter, without a prescription. After he began airing an ad on his proposal last month — as security concerns rose amid U.S. military action against the Islamic State group in the Middle East and the West Africa outbreak of the Ebola virus — Gardner moved ahead in public polls. Gardner isn’t the only Republican to propose the sale of birth control over-the-counter. So, too, have Republicans running for Senate in North Carolina, Virginia and Minnesota. The issue of access to birth control has also found its way into the Senate race in Iowa, where Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley has hammered his Republican opponent, state Sen. Joni Ernst, for her support of bestowing personhood status on a fetus. He says that would outlaw abortion, in-vitro fertilization and most kinds of contraception; she says she supports access to birth control and abortion in some circumstances. Some voters have scoffed at the emphasis. “They do a lot of yapping about how contraceptives have to do a lot with women’s health, which is a load of crap,” said Donald Johnson, 82, a staunch Republican in Clinton, Iowa. “If they want contraception, they can go and get it. It doesn’t cost that much. There’s no reason the government should be paying for it.” On both abortion and same-sex marriage, recent AP-GfK polling has found likely voters more apt to trust Democrats than Republicans. But on issues that have captured more of voters’ attention this midterm season, such as the economy and protecting the country, Republicans have the advantage. Republicans have emphasized terrorism and Ebola threats in the campaign’s closing days, though the poll suggests Ebola inspires less of a partisan preference than other issues. Cindy Nath, a 59-year-old high school teacher in Colorado Springs, is most worried about economic inequality but also has concerns about reproductive freedom. A Democrat, she’s already cast an early ballot for Udall. But the issues her students discuss are very different — the Islamic State group and Ebola. “That’s what they’re talking about,” she said. “ISIS comes up every day.” Women’s votes have shifted sharply between presidential years and midterm elections in recent contests, according to exit polling conducted for the AP and ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC. In 2012, women broke for Obama by an 11-point margin, while in 2010, when few candidates raised social issues as a major campaign theme, they split evenly between Democratic and Republican House candidates. Atkinson noted that social issues usually poll low in priority but can be effective in defining candidates as too extreme. That’s how Democrats have won recently in Colorado. Although polling shows Udall slightly behind, his campaign believes he can win with a superior get-out-the-vote operation and by continuing to use women’s health issues to motivate key voting groups. Democrats are particularly targeting single women, whose participation dips in midterm elections. The model is Sen. Michael Bennet’s 2010 come-from-behind win, where he similarly focused on women’s health. Still, a gender gap cuts both ways. Several recent polls in Colorado have shown Gardner’s advantage among men outpaces Udall’s among women. But Jill Hanauer, a Denver-based Democratic strategist, said people should not mistake a temporary issue advantage for something permanent. “Republicans have immediate issues to run on and Democrats have much broader, long-term ones like climate change and reproductive rights,” Hanauer said. “This election is one point in time, not a long-term trend.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 16-20, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,608 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Agiesta, AP’s director of polling, reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Stacy A. Anderson and Emily Swanson contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 24 AP-GfK Poll: 2 of 3 Americans think the threat posed by Islamic State is very important By DEB RIECHMANN and EMILY SWANSON, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Sixty-five percent of Americans now say the threat from the Islamic State group is very or even extremely important, and nearly half think the U.S. military response in Iraq and Syria has not gone far enough, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Most want to see America’s partners step up their contribution to the fight, Less than half, 43 percent, approve of the way President Barack Obama is handling the danger posed by the extremist militants. Greg Franke, 24, of Columbia, South Carolina, was among the 55 percent of those who disapproved. Franke, a 24-year-old assistant editor at a research library, said he thought Obama was too hesitant in responding to the militants, who have employed brutal tactics to swiftly seize territory. “I understand the need to be hesitant, but this was a group that was marching across parts of the Middle East, which is already unstable,” Franke said. “I think it warranted a swift and more decisive response.” “I also think that his declaration that U.S. troops would not be involved was premature,” he said. “I don’t want U.S. troops involved. But I don’t think we need to close doors.” A majority, 66 percent, favor the airstrikes the United States has been launching against the militants, yet 65 percent of those surveyed say Obama has not clearly explained America’s goal in fighting the Islamic State group. The president met with his national security team on Friday to discuss the Islamic State and talk via video teleconference with U.S. officials at the American Embassy in Baghdad and consulates in Irbil and Basra. Here’s a look at the poll: IS ENOUGH BEING DONE? Forty-six percent said the U.S. military response has not gone far enough — up from 40 percent in September. Fifty-six percent said the military response from countries that have joined the U.S. in the fight against Islamic State militants has not gone far enough. The U.S. and partner countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been bombing Islamic State targets since August. “It shouldn’t just be us. It shouldn’t just be ‘Oh, the United States is policing.’ It should be everyone is there policing and everybody believes this is wrong and everyone — worldwide — is trying to stop this,” said Kathy Robinson, 24, a Sterling, Virginia, woman who works at an information technology company. At the same time, she thinks the United States eventually will put troops on the ground in the region “just to make sure nothing starts back up — to keep the peace.” Only 32 percent think Obama has done a good job in clearly stating U.S. policy against the IS group. More than six in 10 of them think it’s either not likely or only moderately likely that the U.S. and its partners will achieve their goal in fighting IS. ___ ARE AMERICANS FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAQ, SYRIA? While 47 percent of those surveyed said there’s a very or extremely high risk of another terror attack inside the United States, just a third said they have been keenly following the news about the U.S. military action against IS. An additional 38 percent said they were following the action somewhat closely, and 31 percent said they were keeping up not too closely or not closely at all. ___ DO PEOPLE SUPPORT THE AIRSTRIKES? While Americans support the airstrike, when it comes to supporting the idea of deploying U.S. ground troops, respondents were more guarded. Thirty-seven percent said they opposed putting American forces on the ground, 33 percent favored the idea and 28 percent said they were neither for nor against it. Obama has said repeatedly that he has no plans to send ground troops to Iraq or Syria. However, 28 percent thought it was very or extremely likely that he would, and an additional 45 percent thought it was moderately likely. Just 24 percent said it was not likely. Michael Rainwater, 64, of Sammanish, Washington, doesn’t particularly want to see U.S. troops sent in, but thinks they might be deployed at some point. “I think all of these things tend to escalate,” he said. “You can’t keep pouring fuel on the fire and expect the fire to get smaller. So every time we bomb or send in armed drones, you are creating more terrorists.” He does not think, though, that the Islamic State is in a position to mount a 9/11-style attack against the U.S. Said Rainwater, a retired software company owner: “It is more of a criminal entity because basically what they are doing is kidnapping people for ransom, taking over oil refineries for the income.” ___ The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 16-20 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,608 adults, and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were given free access. Oct 23 AP-GfK Poll: Disapproval, doubt dominate on Ebola By LAURAN NEERGAARD and EMILY SWANSON WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans have at least some confidence that the U.S. health care system will prevent Ebola from spreading in this country but generally disapprove of the way President Barack Obama and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have handled the crisis so far. Most disapprove of Obama’s handling of the Ebola outbreak, according to an Associated Press-GfK Poll. Just 1 in 5 approve of the CDC’s work on Ebola so far, and only 3 in 10 say they trust that public health officials are sharing complete and accurate information about the virus. And only 18 percent have deep confidence that local hospitals could safely treat a patient with Ebola. Amid worry here, most Americans say the U.S. also should be doing more to stop Ebola in West Africa. Health authorities have been clear: Until that epidemic ends, travelers could unknowingly carry the virus anywhere. “It seems to me we have a crisis of two things. We have a crisis of science, and either people don’t understand it or … they don’t believe it,” said Dr. Joseph McCormick, an Ebola expert at the University of Texas School of Public Health. And, “we have a crisis in confidence in government.” Some findings from the AP-GfK poll: HEALTH CARE GETS MIXED REVIEWS Nearly a quarter of Americans are very confident the U.S. health care system could prevent Ebola from spreading widely, and 40 percent are moderately confident. But nearly half don’t think their local hospital could safely treat an Ebola case, and 31 percent are only moderately confident that it could. After all, Thomas Eric Duncan, the first Ebola patient diagnosed in the U.S., at first was mistakenly sent home by a Dallas emergency room, only to return far sicker a few days later. Then, two nurses caring for him somehow became infected. The family of one of the nurses, Amber Vinson, said Wednesday doctors no longer could detect Ebola in her as of Tuesday evening. Asked how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention handled those cases, 42 percent of people disapprove and 22 percent approve. FEAR VS. KNOWLEDGE Despite months of headlines about Ebola, nearly a quarter of Americans acknowledge they don’t really understand how it spreads. Another 36 percent say they understand it only moderately well. Ebola doesn’t spread through the air or by casual contact, and patients aren’t contagious until symptoms begin. Ebola spreads through close contact with a symptomatic person’s bodily fluids, such as blood, vomit, feces, urine, saliva, semen or sweat. People who say they do understand are less concerned about Ebola spreading widely in this country. Among those who feel they have a good grasp on how it spreads, 46 percent are deeply concerned; that rises to 58 percent among those who don’t understand it as well. Likewise, a third of those with more knowledge of Ebola are confident in the health system’s ability to stem an outbreak, and 27 percent think their local hospital could safely treat it. Among those who don’t understand Ebola, fewer than 1 in 5 shares either confidence. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE A whopping 93 percent of people think training of doctors and nurses at local hospitals is necessary to deal with Ebola, with nearly all of them, 78 percent, deeming it a definite need. Nine out of 10 also think it’s necessary to tighten screening of people entering the U.S. from the outbreak zone, including 69 percent who say that’s definitely needed. Some would go even further: Almost half say it’s definitely necessary to prevent everyone traveling from places affected by Ebola from entering the U.S. Another 29 percent say it’s probably necessary to do so. More than 8 in 10 favor sending medical aid to Ebola-stricken countries and increasing government funding to develop vaccines and treatments. SOME NEW STEPS The CDC had issued safe-care guidelines to hospitals long before Duncan arrived last month, and it made some changes this week after the unexpected nurse infections. Now, the CDC says hospitals should use full-body garb and hoods and follow rigorous rules in removing the equipment to avoid contamination, with a site manager supervising. Possibly more important, workers should repeatedly practice the donning and doffing and prove they can do it correctly before being allowed near any future patients. While Duncan wasn’t contagious during his flight, his arrival spurred U.S. officials to begin checking passengers arriving from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea for fever, an early Ebola symptom, just like they’re checked before leaving those countries. Wednesday, the CDC moved to fill a gap in that screening: Starting next week, all of those travelers must be monitored for symptoms for 21 days, the Ebola incubation period. They’ll be told to take their temperature twice a day and must report the readings to state or local health officials. That’s not just for West African visitors. It includes U.S. government employees, who had been doing their own 21-day fever watches upon return from fighting the epidemic, as well as doctors and other workers for aid organizations and journalists. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 16-20, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,608 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 22 AP-GfK Poll: Americans want tighter Ebola screening, concerned government hasn’t done enough By LAURAN NEERGAARD and EMILY SWANSON, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans overwhelmingly want tougher screening for Ebola, according to a poll released as federal health authorities took new steps to do just that. Many are worried about Ebola spreading here, and two-thirds say the government hasn’t done enough to prevent that from happening, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Some things to know: THE PUBLIC WANTS MORE TRAVEL SCRUTINY The AP-GfK poll found 9 out of 10 people — unusually high agreement on any issue — think it’s necessary to tighten screening procedures for people entering the U.S. from the outbreak zone in West Africa, including 69 percent who say it’s definitely needed. Some would go even further: Almost half say it’s definitely necessary to prevent everyone traveling from places affected by Ebola from entering the U.S. Another 29 percent say it’s probably necessary to do so. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned since summer that an infected traveler eventually would arrive in the U.S., and it finally happened last month when Thomas Eric Duncan developed symptoms of Ebola a few days after arriving from Liberia. He died on Oct. 8. WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT DOING While Duncan wasn’t contagious during his flight, his arrival spurred U.S. officials to begin checking passengers arriving from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea for a fever, an early Ebola symptom, just like they’re checked before leaving those countries. The AP-GfK poll suggested that wasn’t enough. Wednesday, the CDC moved to fill a gap in that screening: Starting next week, all of those travelers must be monitored for symptoms for 21 days, the Ebola incubation period. They’ll be told to take their temperature twice a day and must report the readings to state or local health officials. That’s not just for West African visitors. It includes U.S. government employees, who had been doing their own 21-day fever watches upon return from fighting the epidemic, as well as doctors and other workers for aid organizations, and journalists. WHY NOT A TRAVEL BAN The Obama administration says that’s not on the table. Already, there are no direct flights to the U.S. from the outbreak zone, and the airport with the most travelers from West Africa — New York’s Kennedy airport — has averaged 34 travelers a day since entry screening began. Health experts say a travel ban would prevent medical supplies and health workers from reaching West Africa, and could drive travelers underground and hinder screening of potential Ebola carriers. AMERICANS FEAR EBOLA’S SPREAD HERE Nearly half of Americans are very or extremely concerned that Ebola will spread widely in the U.S. After all, two nurses caught it while caring for Duncan. Health experts had hoped that fear would start to dwindle, considering that people who shared an apartment with Duncan while he was sick emerged healthy from quarantine this week — showing the virus isn’t all that easy to catch. FEAR VS. KNOWLEDGE But despite months of headlines about Ebola, nearly a quarter of Americans acknowledge they don’t really understand how Ebola spreads. Another 36 percent say they understand it only moderately well. People who say they do are less concerned about Ebola spreading widely in this country. Among those who feel they have a good grasp on how it spreads, 46 percent are deeply concerned; that rises to 58 percent among those who don’t understand it as well. Ebola doesn’t spread through the air or by casual contact, and patients aren’t contagious until symptoms begin. Ebola spreads through close contact with a symptomatic person’s bodily fluids, such as blood, vomit, feces, urine, saliva, semen or sweat. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 16-20, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,608 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 21 AP-GfK Poll: Voters see GOP win in the offing, but they aren’t too fond of their choices By JENNIFER AGIESTA and EMILY SWANSON, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Two weeks before Election Day, most of the nation’s likely voters now expect the Republican Party to take control of the U.S. Senate, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. And by a growing margin, they say that’s the outcome they’d like to see. But the survey suggests many will cringe when they cast those ballots. Most likely voters have a negative impression of the Republican Party, and 7 in 10 are dissatisfied by its leaders in Congress. The Democrats win few accolades themselves. Impressions of the party among likely voters have grown more negative in the past month. In fact, Democrats are more trusted than the GOP on just two of nine top issues, the poll showed. The economy remains the top issue for likely voters — 91 percent call it “extremely” or “very” important. And the GOP has increased its advantage as the party more trusted to handle the issue to a margin of 39 percent to 31 percent. With control of the Senate at stake, both parties say they are relying on robust voter-turnout operations — and monster campaign spending — to lift their candidates in the final days. But the poll suggests any appeals they’ve made so far haven’t done much to boost turnout among those already registered. The share who report that they are certain to vote in this year’s contests has risen just slightly since September, and interest in news about the campaign has held steady. Among all adults, 38 percent say they’d like the Democrats to wind up in control of Congress, to 36 percent for the Republicans. But the GOP holds a significant lead among those most likely to cast ballots: 47 percent of these voters favor a Republican controlled-Congress, 39 percent a Democratic one. That’s a shift in the GOP’s favor since an AP-GfK poll in late September, when the two parties ran about evenly among likely voters. Women have moved in the GOP’s direction since September. In last month’s AP-GfK poll, 47 percent of female likely voters said they favored a Democratic-controlled Congress while 40 percent wanted the Republicans to capture control. In the new poll, the two parties are about even among women, 44 percent prefer the Republicans, 42 percent the Democrats. In all, the poll finds that 55 percent of likely voters now expect Republicans to win control of the Senate, up from 47 percent last month. Democrats have grown slightly more pessimistic on this count since September, with 25 percent expecting the GOP to take control now compared with 18 percent earlier. What’s deeply important to likely voters after the economy? About three-quarters say health care, terrorism, the threat posed by the Islamic State group and Ebola. On foreign affairs, Republicans have the upper hand. By a 22-point margin, voters trust the GOP more to protect the country, and they give the Republicans a 10-point lead as more trusted to handle international crises. Democrats have a slim advantage on health care, 36 percent to 32 percent. Although handling the Ebola outbreak was among the top issues for likely voters, the poll shows little sign that either party could capitalize on fears of the virus as an election issue. More than half said either that they trust both parties equally (29 percent) or that they don’t trust either party (24 percent) to handle public health issues like Ebola. The remaining respondents were about equally split between trusting Republicans (25 percent) and Democrats (22 percent). Same-sex marriage? Only 32 percent said that was an extremely or very important issue to them personally, identical to the percentage saying so in September, before the Supreme Court effectively allowed same-sex marriages to proceed in five more states. The poll, which asked likely voters whom they preferred among the candidates in the congressional district where they live, found Republicans hold an edge in the upcoming elections. Forty percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate in their House district, while 32 percent said the Democrat. About a quarter backed a third-party candidate or were undecided. Although likely voters appear more apt to take the GOP side in the upcoming elections, the poll finds little difference between those most likely to cast a ballot and others on negative perceptions of the nation’s direction and leadership. Among all adults as well as just the likely voters, 9 in 10 disapprove of Congress, 7 in 10 say the nation is heading in the wrong direction, 6 in 10 disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 6 in 10 describe the nation’s economy as “poor.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 16-20 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,608 adults, and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents. Among 968 likely voters, the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.6 points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Associated Press writer Philip Elliott contributed to this report. ___ Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta Follow Emily Swanson on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/el_swan ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 08 AP-GfK Poll finds most NFL fans believe Commissioner Roger Goodell should keep job By RACHEL COHEN, Associated Press NEW YORK (AP) — Most NFL fans believe Commissioner Roger Goodell should keep his job after his handling of recent domestic violence cases, according to a new Associated Press-GfK Poll. Only 32 percent say Goodell should lose his job over the issue, with 66 percent saying he shouldn’t. Support for his handling of the cases is much lower, though, with 42 percent saying they disapprove. The same percentage neither approve nor disapprove, with just 15 percent approving. Goodell initially suspended Ray Rice for two games after the Baltimore Ravens running back was charged with assaulting his then-fiancee. The commissioner defended the punishment at first, before admitting more than a month later that he “didn’t get it right.” When a video of the assault later surfaced, Goodell suspended Rice indefinitely, saying the images constituted new evidence. Rice was released earlier that day by the Ravens. The poll shows strong support for keeping Rice off the field for at least some period of time. Forty-three percent of fans say Rice should never be allowed to play again. Just 7 percent say he should be able to play now, with 49 percent saying he should be permitted to return after missing more time. Opinions differed by gender and race. Slightly more than half of women say Rice should never be allowed to play again, compared with 37 percent of men. Just 19 percent of black fans say he should receive a permanent ban, while 46 percent of white fans support that. Respondents were more receptive to the idea of Minnesota Vikings star running back Adrian Peterson returning to the field. Peterson is currently on paid leave while he faces child abuse charges. Fifty-four percent of fans say he should be allowed to play again if he is found not guilty, and another 29 percent say he should be able to return regardless of the case’s outcome. Only 15 percent say he should never play again. Answers to this question also varied by gender and race. Thirty-four percent of men say Peterson should be allowed to return under any circumstances, compared with 22 percent of women. And 45 percent of black fans say he should be able to return no matter the verdict, while only 25 percent of white fans say that. The poll suggests that the recent spate of highly publicized domestic violence cases has made a small dent in the NFL’s popularity. An AP-GfK Poll conducted in January found that 49 percent of respondents considered themselves fans of pro football. That number dropped to 43 percent in the current poll. In January, 19 percent of respondents said their interest in the sport had increased in the previous five years, with 12 percent saying it had decreased. This time, 12 percent say it has increased while 15 percent say it has decreased. Of the group with less interest, 42 percent say the recent domestic violence arrests have been an extremely or very important factor in that drop. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Sept. 25-29 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It included online interviews with 1,845 adults, including 836 NFL fans. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the NFL fans. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Emily Swanson contributed to this report. Oct 05 AP-GfK Poll: Americans not confident in US government’s ability to minimize range of threats By JILL COLVIN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans lack confidence in the government’s ability to protect their personal safety and economic security, a sign that their widespread unease about the state of the nation extends far beyond politics, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll. With Election Day about a month away, more than half those in the survey said Washington can do little to effectively lessen threats such as climate change, mass shootings, racial tensions, economic uncertainty and an unstable job market. “I think what we’ve got going on here in America is the perfect storm of not good things,” said Joe Teasdale, 59, who lives in southwest Wisconsin and works as an assistant engineer at a casino. For many of those questioned in the poll, conducted before doctors in Texas diagnosed a Liberian man with the Ebola virus, the concern starts with the economy. The poll found that 9 in 10 of those most likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election call the economy an extremely or very important issue. Teasdale is among those who say the slow recovery from the recession is a top concern. Despite improvements nationally, business is far from booming in his state, Teasdale said. He’s been supplementing his stagnant salary by renovating and renting out duplexes and has little faith the situation will improve soon. He wants government to get out of the way of business. “If you’re putting so much restriction on them where it isn’t practical for them to expand or grow, why should they?” Teasdale asked. Those surveyed also pointed to events such as the protests in Ferguson, Missouri, that followed the fatal police shooting an unarmed black 18-year-old and the beheading of a woman in an Oklahoma food processing plant, apparently at the hand of a suspended co-worker. “This is the first time I’ve felt insecure in my own country,” said Jan Thomas, 75, of Stevensville, Montana. “Especially after the beheading in Oklahoma. That’s scary.” The poll found that Democrats tend to express more faith in the government’s ability to protect them than do Republicans. Yet even among Democrats, just 27 percent are confident the government can keep them safe from terrorist attacks. Fewer than 1 in 5 say so on each of the other issues, including climate change. “There’s too many people who still don’t believe that it’s happening,” bemoaned Felicia Duncan, 53, who lives in Sharonville, Ohio, a suburb of Cincinnati, and works as an office manager at a mechanical contracting company. Urbanites tend to be more confident the government will keep them safe from terrorist threats than do people living in suburbs and rural areas. Younger Americans are more confident than older people that the government can minimize the threat of mass shootings. When it comes to quelling racial tensions, Hispanics are more confident than are blacks and whites. Thirteen years after the Sept. 11 attacks, and as the Obama administration conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq, only 1 in 5 in the poll say they are extremely or very confident the government can keep them safe from another terrorist attack. Four in 10 express moderate confidence. While there has not been a large-scale terrorist attack on U.S. soil since 9/11, roughly one-third of Americans say they are not too confident or not confident at all in the government’s ability to prevent another. Bill Denison, 85, who lives in Bradenton, Florida, is among the minority who thinks the government is doing a good job keeping citizens safe, at least when it comes to preventing domestic attacks. “Overall I think that the best job that we’ve done in this country is with anti-terrorism,” he said. “We’re doing a magnificent job and so far it’s been pretty successful.” Still, he expressed disbelief at the recent security breaches involving Secret Service agents, including an incident in which a man scaled the White House fence and made his way deep into the executive mansion. “The fact that a guy can run into the White House is pretty disturbing,” he said. “But we’re only human. And humans are going to make mistakes.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted September 25-29, 2014, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,845 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were given free access. ___ Associated Press writer Janet McConnaughey in New Orleans contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 02 AP-GfK Poll: Half think US at high risk of terror attack, yet fewer are closely following airstrikes By DEB RIECHMANN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Half of Americans think there’s a high risk of a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, yet only a third are closely following news of U.S. airstrikes against Islamic extremists in the Middle East. Most people do think the airstrikes are a good idea. Two-thirds of those questioned for an Associated Press-GfK poll say they favor the offensive by the U.S. and allies. And, despite, more than a decade of costly war, about one-third favor going beyond that and putting American military boots on the ground in Iraq or Syria. President Barack Obama says he has no plans to send ground troops to either country. A little more than a third say they are opposed to the idea, and about one in four say they neither favor nor oppose it. That’s thousands of miles away. What about concern at home? According to the poll, most think there’s a high risk of a terrorist attack inside the United States, 53 percent, though just 20 percent call it an “extremely high risk.” An additional 32 percent say the nation is at moderate risk of a terrorist attack and 12 percent say it faces a low risk of terror attacks. The poll has not asked that specific question in the past. However, the finding tracks with Pew Research Center data from July indicating that concern had ebbed somewhat since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. This summer, the Pew survey said 59 percent of Americans were “very” or “somewhat worried” that there would soon be another terrorist attack in the United States. That’s lower than the 73 percent that Pew found were concerned, following 9/11, that another attack was imminent and about the same as the 58 percent who were worried about another attack after the April 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. There hasn’t been a massive terrorist attack on U.S. soil since 9/11. Those in the AP-GfK survey are split on whether they approve of the way Obama is handling the threat from terrorism and specifically the threat posed by the Islamic State group. About half approve and about half disapprove of Obama’s actions to confront the threat. Still, those figures are better than Obama’s approval ratings for handling top domestic issues. Just 40 percent approve of his handling of the economy, 41 percent approve of his work on health care and 34 percent approve of the way he’s handling immigration. Douglas Dowden, 49, a native of San Diego who now lives in central California, said he thinks the threat from the Islamic State group is overblown. He doesn’t support Obama’s decision to launch airstrikes. “How many terror threat attacks happen in countries like say Spain, Italy, the U.S.? It’s not that often. I have more fear of what some whack job locally is going to do — that’s more of a concern to me than some potential threat from some extremist group,” Dowden said. Dowden is among the 37 percent surveyed who said they were following news about the airstrikes “somewhat closely.” About 32 percent of those surveyed are paying close attention to the military action, and 30 percent say they’re barely monitoring the U.S. military action. “I’m really not following it. There is so much terrible news and I’d rather follow the domestic news than the foreign news — but I still am interested in what’s going on,” said Betty Masket, a 91-year-old retired government health science administrator from Chevy Chase, Maryland. “I really feel sorry for Obama. I think he’s doing the best he can.” Keith Fehser, 55, a commodities trader from suburban Chicago, says Americans need to see terrorism as an extremely important issue, yet they don’t. “I just think it’s only going to get worse,” Fehser said. “Even though the government tries its best to keep on top of it, it’s just lunacy out there with what can be done by just small groups of people.” He said most people he talks with don’t care much about the U.S. airstrikes on Iraq and Syria. “It’s a long way away. As long as we’re not letting our own people get killed, I don’t think they care that much,” he said, adding that he would be “very disgusted” if American combat troops were sent back to the region. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Sept. 25-29, 2014, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,845 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were given free access. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 01 AP-GfK Poll: As early voters begin casting ballots, economic concerns top those about terror By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s not Obamacare or climate change. It’s not yet terrorism or fear of the Islamic State group. Those issues are on the minds of voters as they begin casting ballots in this year’s midterm elections, but nothing matters to American voters as much the economy. In a new Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday, 9 in 10 of those most likely to go to the polls or mail in a ballot in this year’s midterm elections call the economy an extremely or very important issue. “We need jobs,” said Christine Kamischke, 45, of rural northern Michigan. She works in a large retail store and her husband was recently laid off from his job at an Air Force base near their home. Wednesday was his first day without work. The couple has five children. Kamischke said the economy is her top concern, and she’s focused on national security only if it helps get her husband’s job back. The poll found that concerns about the spate of foreign policy challenges facing the U.S. have grown since July, with 6 in 10 Americans now calling the U.S. role in world affairs an important issue, up from 51 percent in July. And most people remain dissatisfied with those in power. Just 7 percent of likely voters approve of the way Congress is handling its job, 42 percent approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance. Asked how they feel about his administration, 58 percent are dissatisfied or angry, while 74 percent were dissatisfied or angry with the Republican leadership in Congress. Few see change coming once voting closes Nov. 4. A majority of likely voters, 52 percent, expect the Democratic Party to retain control of the Senate, with 68 percent saying the GOP will keep the House. About 8 in 10 likely voters deemed several issues important, including the threat posed by the Islamic State group, terrorism, and the issue many thought would come to dominate this year’s electoral contests, health care. But all told, 92 percent of likely voters called the economy an extremely or very important issue. Persistent concerns about the economy are fueled by perceptions that things aren’t getting better. Just 38 percent of likely voters describe the economy as “good,” and half as many think there’s been any improvement in the last month. The outlook for the future is dim, with only 34 percent expecting any improvement in the coming year. Wayne Savage, of Allegan, Michigan, who turns 55 on Friday and works in manufacturing, said his top priority in the voting booth will be the economy and national security, followed by immigration. He says that the economy is slowly improving in his part of southwestern Michigan. “Manufacturing is starting to do a little better here,” he said. “We still have a long way to go, but things are moving in the right direction.” A shift in focus toward the threat of terrorism could benefit the GOP, the poll suggests. About 4 in 10 likely voters trust the Republicans more to protect the country while just a quarter prefer the Democrats. On handling the economy, however, the GOP holds a much smaller edge, 36 percent to 31 percent for the Democrats. Neither party holds a clear advantage in the coming election, which has already started as early voting begins in some states. Asked which party they’d like to see win control of Congress, 45 percent of likely voters prefer Republicans and 42 percent the Democrats. In their own districts, those surveyed are evenly split: 33 percent back a Democratic candidate, 33 percent a Republican, 10 percent another candidate and 23 percent are undecided. In those places where Senate campaigns are nearly impossible to avoid, voters aren’t bullish on the GOP’s chances of taking the Senate. Among likely voters in 10 states with competitive Senate races, 52 percent think the Democrats will hold the Senate while 49 percent think the Republicans will take control. These voters are also evenly split on which party ought to control Congress, 44 percent favor each party. That neither side has grabbed a clear edge is unsurprising given the public’s take on those currently in power. Among all likely voters, majorities have unfavorable opinions of each party — 96 percent say they are dissatisfied or angry with the leadership of one side or the other. Among those who prefer a GOP-controlled Congress, 52 percent say they’re dissatisfied or angry with the current Republican leadership. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted September 25-29, 2014, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,845 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all respondents. Among 958 likely voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Associated Press writers Steve Peoples in Washington, Janet McConnaughey in New Orleans and M.L. Johnson in Milwaukee contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Sep 27 AP-GfK Poll: Slackers aren’t the only ones dazed and confused by some big US political issues By CONNIE CASS, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Confused by President Barack Obama’s health care law? How about the debate over government surveillance? The way the Federal Reserve affects interest rates? You’re far from alone. Most people in the United States say the issues facing the country are getting harder to fathom. It’s not just those tuning out politics who feel perplexed. People who vote regularly, follow news about November’s election or simply feel a civic duty to stay informed are most likely to say that issues have become “much more complicated” over the past decade, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows. Karla Lynn of Lavaca, Arkansas, blames politicians who would rather snipe at each other than honestly explain the nation’s problems in straightforward terms. “They’ll spin everything,” said Lynn, 61, a retired product developer. “You’ve got to wade through so much muck to try to find the truth.” David Stewart blames the deluge from social media, partisan blogs and 24-hour news sites for complicating things. At one time people would only see a news story about a violent organization such as the Islamic State group, he said, but now they watch the militants’ videos of beheadings online. “People get a little overwhelmed by all the information about what’s going on in the world,” said Stewart, 40, a salesman at a home improvement store in Georgetown, Kentucky. The father of three said it takes time from an already busy life to go online and sort out “what’s fluff, what’s been engineered, and what’s actually true and believable.” The issue that stumps Stewart most? The health care overhaul. Nearly three-fourths of Americans find it difficult, according to the AP-GfK poll, and about 4 in 10 say it’s very hard to understand. The law is complex; politicians even say so. Republicans were condemning it as a regulatory morass even before it passed. When the federal website enrolling people crashed last year, Obama himself pointed to the enormous size of the undertaking. “It’s complicated,” he said. “It’s hard.” Politicians do try to make issues sound simpler. They like to invoke your own family budget when talking about the national debt. But in the poll, confidence in dealing with household problems didn’t offer much help in understanding national matters. For example, most under age 30 said it’s easy to protect your privacy and financial information online. But most young adults think it’s hard to understand the National Security Agency’s data collection programs. Americans older than 50 find both personal computer security and the NSA issue difficult. Interest rates? Wealthier people are more likely to find rates on personal loans easy to understand. But the poll shows no difference by income in comprehending the Fed’s interest rate policy. Then there are international issues. In his speech to the United Nations last week, Obama spoke of terrorists in Iraq and Syria as the type of danger that threatens a faster-paced, interconnected world. What began 13 years ago as a U.S. campaign to destroy al-Qaida has evolved into battles against numerous offshoots. “Right now, in my estimation, the problems are much more variegated and much more complex and diffuse than they’ve ever been,” said Bruce Hoffman, a Georgetown University historian who has studied terrorism for four decades. Among Americans strongly interested in political news, nearly 6 in 10 say political issues facing the United States are “much more complicated” than a decade ago. Of course, creating Medicare and waging the Cold War weren’t easy. Perhaps nostalgia blurs people’s judgment of current troubles? Sheila Suess Kennedy, director of the Indiana University Center for Civic Literacy, thinks there’s more to it. “Not only are we dealing with a more complex environment, we are dealing with a more ambiguous environment,” Kennedy said. “People want ‘this is good and this is bad.’ Increasingly we live with ‘there’s black and there’s white and there’s a whole lot of gray.’” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted July 24-28 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Results from online interviews with 1,044 adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. Some question wording used in this survey comes from the General Social Survey, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost. ___ AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. Full story: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/356e4efefb204b10b2330ac28d7a03eb/poll-confused-issues-day-join-club Topline results and methodology: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Aug 28 AP-GfK POLL: PARENTS UNCOMFORTABLE WITH YOUTH FOOTBALL By KURT VOIGT Parents are worried about their children playing football, but most haven’t decided to keep their kids from putting on a helmet and stepping onto the field. According to an Associated Press-GfK poll, nearly half of parents said they’re not comfortable letting their child play football amid growing uncertainty about the long-term impact of concussions. In the poll, 44 percent of parents weren’t comfortable with their child playing football. The same percentage was uncomfortable with ice hockey, and 45 percent were uncomfortable with participation in wrestling. Only five percent, though, said they have discouraged their child from playing in the last two years as concern over head injuries has increased at all levels of the game. The majority of parents said they are comfortable with participation in a host of other sports — including swimming, track and field, basketball, soccer, baseball and softball, among others. The AP-GfK poll was conducted from July 24-28. It included interviews with 1,044 adults and has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The parents’ concern comes as several high-profile lawsuits have challenged how concussions have been addressed in pro and college sports. Thousands of pro players sued the NFL and a $675 million settlement that would compensate them for concussion-related claims is pending. A tentative settlement with the NCAA, meanwhile, would create a $70 million fund to test thousands of current and former college athletes for brain trauma. Youth and high school programs have increased training available for coaches, and helmet companies are releasing new designs with the hope that they reduce the force of impact. But research is murky about whether or not they will be effective. Participation statistics also show only a slight decline in the overall number of high school students playing football. According to the National Federation of State High School Associations, nearly 1.1 million students played 11-man football during the 2012-13 school year. The number was down approximately 10,000 from the year before and more than 20,000 since 2009-08. Cathy Curtin, a high school rifle coach in northeast Pennsylvania, is one parent who has discouraged her children from playing football in recent years. Curtin, 52, has gone through concussion-related training for her job, but one issue that concerns her is how much of identifying a head injury relies on the student’s input following a collision. She said her 21-year-old son “would have said anything” to remain in the game while in high school, including hiding symptoms such as dizziness from a trainer or coach. “Our training staff is good, but you can’t always know,” Curtin said. “You’re basing whether they can play on their say. And they are 16-year-old kids, 17-year-old kids who want more than anything to get out there and play.” Curtin said her younger son broke his collarbone and leg while playing football as a freshman. “Nowhere in that time did they check him for a concussion,” Curtin said. “So, if he got hit hard enough to break his collar bone and his leg, then how hard did he hit the ground, too?” Football wasn’t the only sport Curtin said she was uncomfortable with. She also worries about hockey, wrestling and other high-impact competitions such as gymnastics and cheerleading. She’s encouraged by new advances — such as chin straps that change color when a player may have suffered a concussion — aimed at reducing and identifying head injuries, but she is also skeptical about school districts’ ability to afford new helmets. JeMare Williams, 43, is no stranger to the possibility of getting a concussion while playing football. He thinks he “probably” suffered from one while in high school in St. Louis. “I don’t really know, but I remember being hurt, being dizzy,” Williams said. “But during that time, there wasn’t a specific diagnosis like now.” Now living in Henderson, Nevada, and with 17- and 11-year-old sons who play the game, Williams — an auto mechanic — has the same injury concerns as many parents. That said, he’s comfortable with his sons playing football — or any other sport they choose. One of the primary reasons for Williams’ comfort level is because of the increased attention paid to head injuries over the last few years. He said coaches are trained more closely now to teach proper tackling techniques, as well as watch players for signs of concussions. “There’s a lot of publicity on (concussions) now, and I think that makes it better,” Williams said. “So, I’m not as worried now.” Aug 06 AP-GfK Poll: Most say the US is heading the wrong way, hope for new direction come November By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Congress has checked out, and the American people have noticed. Three-quarters of Americans doubt the federal government will address the important problems facing the country this year, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. All told, only 28 percent of Americans think the nation is heading in the right direction, the lowest level in August of an election year since 2008. It’s about on par with 2006, when Democrats took control of the U.S. House amid a backlash to the Iraq war. This time around, it’s not clear whether either party will benefit from the disaffection. One-third say they hope the Republicans take control of Congress outright this fall — which the GOP can accomplish with a net gain of six seats in the U.S. Senate while holding the U.S. House. The same share want to see Democrats lead Congress — a far less likely possibility. The final third? They say it just doesn’t matter who takes control of Congress. Overall, just 13 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress overall is handling its job. There are some signs in the new poll that Republicans have gained ground as the height of the campaign approaches. In May, they trailed Democrats a bit on who ought to control Congress. Partisans are about equally likely to say they’d like to see their own in charge of Congress after November 4, with about three-quarters in each party saying they hope their side winds up in control. Democrats are a bit less apt to say they want their own party to win than they were in May, 74 percent in the new poll compared with 80 percent then. And the GOP now holds narrow advantages over Democrats on handling an array of top issues, including the economy, immigration and the federal budget. But neither party is trusted much to manage the federal government, with 27 percent having faith in the GOP to 24 percent in Democrats. More people, 31 percent, say they trust neither party to run the federal government. Fewer people have confidence in the federal government’s ability to make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014 than at the start of the year, with 74 percent saying they have little or no confidence. That’s a slight change from the 70 percent who said so in a December AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey. That shift in confidence stems from a small drop-off among Democrats. While 56 percent lacked confidence in December, 62 percent say the same now. Overall, few express faith in those currently on Capitol Hill. Just 36 percent say they’d like to see their own member of Congress re-elected, 62 percent say they want someone else to win this November. So far, just three House incumbents have been ousted in primaries this year, and none in the Senate. The Congressional approval rating, 13 percent in the new poll, lags behind President Barack Obama’s 40 percent. Though the economy pushed the nation’s “right direction” figures to historic lows in the fall of 2008, that does not seem to be the culprit in the new poll. About a third (35 percent) say the economy is in good shape, about the same as in May, and 58 percent say the economy has stayed about the same in the past month. The decline in optimism about the country’s path in the new poll seems to mirror those in October 2013 and August 2011, when congressional inaction led to the threat of a government shutdown in 2011 and a partial one in 2013. Among Democrats, the share saying the nation is heading in the right direction dipped 11 points since May, to 49 percent, while among independents, it’s down slightly to 23 percent. Among Republicans, the 9 percent saying the country is heading the right way is similar to May. The October 2013 and August 2011 declines in right direction were also driven by sharp drops among Democrats and independents. Among those who say they are highly likely to vote this fall, just 8 percent say they approve of the way Congress is handling its job, though 43 percent would like to see their member of Congress re-elected, a bit higher than among all adults. Republicans have an edge among this group as the party more preferred to control Congress, 43 percent to 34 percent, with 23 percent saying it doesn’t matter. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted July 24-28, 2014, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,044 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. It is larger for subgroups. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Aug 05 AP-GfK Poll: No agreement on how to pay for highways By JOAN LOWY and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Small wonder Congress has kept federal highway and transit programs teetering on the edge of insolvency for years, unable to find a politically acceptable long-term source of funds. The public can’t make up its mind on how to pay for them either. Six in 10 Americans think the economic benefits of good highways, railroads and airports outweigh the cost to taxpayers. Yet there is scant support for some of the most frequently discussed options for paying for construction of new roads or the upkeep of existing ones, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Among those who drive places multiple times per week, 62 percent say the benefits outweigh the costs. Among those who drive less than once a week or not at all, 55 percent say the costs of road improvement are worthwhile. Yet a majority of all Americans — 58 percent — oppose raising federal gasoline taxes to fund transportation projects such as the repair, replacement or expansion of roads and bridges. Only 14 percent support an increase. And by a better than 2-to-1 margin, Americans oppose having private companies pay for construction of new roads and bridges in exchange for the right to charge tolls. Moving to a usage tax based on how many miles a vehicle drives also draws more opposition than support — 40 percent oppose it, while 20 percent support it. Support for shifting more responsibility for paying for such projects to state and local government is a tepid 30 percent. “Congress is actually reflecting what people want,” said Joshua Schank, president and CEO of the Eno Center for Transportation, a transportation think tank. “People want to have a federal (transportation) program and they don’t want to pay for it.” Last week, Congress cobbled together $10.8 billion to keep transportation aid flowing to states by changing how employers fund worker pension programs, extending customs user fees and transferring money from a fund to repair leaking underground fuel storage tanks. The money was needed to make up a shortfall between aid promised to states and revenue raised by the federal 18.4 cents-per-gallon gas tax and the 24.4 cents-per-gallon diesel tax, which haven’t been increased in more than 20 years. It’s the fifth time in the last six years that Congress has patched a hole in the federal Highway Trust Fund that pays for highway and transit aid. Each time it gets more difficult for lawmakers to find the money without increasing the federal budget deficit. Critics described the pension funding changes used this time as budget gimmicks that would cost the government more in the long run and undermine employee pension programs. The latest patch cleared Congress about three hours before midnight last Thursday, the day before the Transportation Department said it would begin cutting back aid payments to states. The current fix is only expected to cover the revenue gap through next May, when Congress will be back where it started unless lawmakers act sooner. The most direct solution would be to raise fuel taxes. That’s what three blue-ribbon federal commissions have recommended. But opposition to a gas tax increase cuts across party lines, although Republicans are more apt to oppose an increase, 70 percent, than Democrats, 52 percent. “Every time we turn around there’s another tax, and our gas taxes are so high now,” said James Lane, 52, of Henry County in rural south-central Virginia, who described himself as leaning toward the GOP. Lane favors allowing companies to pay for the construction of new or expanded roads and bridges in exchange for the right impose tolls on motorists, often for many decades. There have been projects like that in Virginia, but since those roads are in more populated areas of the state where he doesn’t drive it makes sense to have the people who use them pay for them, he said. But Michael Murphy, 63, a data services contractor who lives near San Antonio, Texas, where a high-speed public-private toll road is scheduled to open this fall, said he’d rather see gas taxes increased than tolls imposed on drivers. Roads benefit everyone, even if indirectly, so it’s only fair that everyone who drives pays something toward their cost, he said. A majority of those surveyed, 56 percent, say traffic in the area where they live has gotten worse in the last five years. Only 6 percent say traffic has improved in their area, and 33 percent that it’s stayed about the same. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted July 24-28 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,044 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents, larger for subgroups. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Joan Lowy on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/AP_Joan_Lowy Aug 01 AP-GfK poll: Americans ready to close the book on wars in Iraq, Afghanistan By DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Three in four Americans think history will judge the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as failures, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows that about the same percentage think it was right to pull forces from the two countries. Americans surveyed in last month’s poll were not optimistic about the chance that a stable democratic government will be established in either country. Seventy-eight percent said it was either not too likely or not at all likely in Afghanistan and 80 percent said the same about Iraq. Roughly three out of four Americans polled think that in hindsight, each war will be deemed as an outright “complete failure” or “more of a failure than success.” A majority of those polled, or 70 percent, said the United States was right to withdraw American troops from Iraq in 2011 and pull most U.S. forces out of Afghanistan by December. The two conflicts have consumed the nation for more than a decade and claimed the lives of 6,800 U.S. troops. Nelson Philip, 73, of Oswego, Illinois, is of two minds. He judges the Afghan war a failure, but wants U.S. troops to stay in countries that remain in turmoil. “What’s so successful about it? We didn’t do anything there. The Taliban. They’re still there. We haven’t done anything and now we’re pulling everybody out of there,” Philip said. “And now this Islamic group is over there taking over Iraq.” The situations in Afghanistan and Iraq are distinct. But in each, the U.S. has spent more than a decade trying to set up democratic governments that could effectively police their own territories and stamp out threats to the American homeland. And in both countries that objective is in peril — their futures threatened by a combination of poor leadership, weak institutions, interethnic rivalry, insurgencies and extremist rebellions. Americans surveyed in the poll think more bad news is on the horizon. Fifty percent — up 18 points in the past seven months — think the situation in Afghanistan will get worse. Fifty-eight percent — up from 16 percent in December 2009 — expect conditions in Iraq will worsen. The poll was conducted shortly after Sunni extremists conducted an offensive that shattered security in Iraq. The rapid advance by the extremist Islamic State group, which captured Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, and overran much of northern and western Iraq, has plunged the country into its worst crisis since the withdrawal of U.S. troops at the end of 2011. Melody Fisher, a 58-year-old midwife from Prescott, Ariz., was among the roughly 25 percent who didn’t think it was time yet for American troops to return from Afghanistan, where about 2,340 U.S. servicemen and women have been killed. She said she wasn’t convinced that the U.S. had finished its work there. “I used to work with refuges so I’m very aware of the conditions that people have to live in,” said Fisher, a midwife who spent time helping resettle Cambodian refugees. “Our country, our nation, has no idea about the day-to-day things that people have to go through in many places.” People over 50 expressed far more pessimism about the ultimate outcome of the two conflicts than their younger counterparts. Sixty-two percent of those over 50 said the situation in Afghanistan would get worse in the coming year, compared with 40 percent of younger Americans. On Iraq, that gap is even larger, with 72 percent age 50 or older expecting things to get worse compared with 47 percent of those under age 50. Older Americans also are more likely to think the U.S. war in Afghanistan will be judged a failure in the future; 86 percent of those 50 or older feel that way, compared with 64 percent among those under age 50. They are also more likely to doubt that a stable democratic government will be established there; 88 percent age 50 or older say it’s unlikely to happen compared with 70 percent age 18 to 49. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted July 24-28, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,044 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. It is larger for subgroups. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Associated Press director of polling Jennifer Agiesta in Washington contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Aug 01 Foreign policy no longer a strong point for Obama as troubles pile up across globe, AP-GfK poll shows By CONNIE CASS and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Foreign policy used to be a bright spot in Americans’ dimming opinion of President Barack Obama. Not anymore. Associated Press-GfK polling found a spring and summer of discontent with the president’s handling of world events. Obama’s consistently low marks across crises such as the fighting in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas could benefit Republicans aiming to win control Congress in the fall. “The problem is saying something and not doing anything — making grandiose threats and never following any of them up,” said Dwight Miller, 71, a retiree and volunteer firefighter in Robertson County, Texas. Miller, who describes himself as a libertarian-leaning Republican, says Obama should either stay out of other nations’ business or commit to going “all in.” In Hawaii, another retiree, Kent Killam, also worries about the U.S. response to cascading troubles in Ukraine, the Middle East and elsewhere. But he blames former President George W. Bush for eroding the nation’s clout abroad and Republican lawmakers for limiting Obama’s ability to act. “I’m not saying it’s going well at all,” said Killam, 72, a Democratic-leaning independent. “On the other hand, I don’t think he has too many options.” The foreign conflicts that have consumed so much of Washington’s attention lately aren’t rated as especially pressing by most Americans surveyed for the AP-GfK poll. It’s unclear how their unhappiness with Obama’s performance will affect the midterm elections in November. Asked about world trouble spots: —42 percent say the conflict between Israel and Hamas is “very” or “extremely” important to them; 60 percent disapprove of the way Obama has handled it. —40 percent consider the situation in Afghanistan highly important; 60 percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of it. —38 percent give high importance to the conflict in Ukraine; 57 percent disapprove of what Obama has done about that. —38 percent find the situation in Iraq of pressing importance; 57 percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of it. Opinion of Obama’s foreign policy has slid nearly as low as his overall approval rating. Just 43 percent were OK with the president’s handling of foreign relations in the new poll, while 40 percent approved how he’s doing his job overall. AP-GfK polls in March and May show a similar picture. The late-March poll, which came after Russia seized upon an uprising in Ukraine to annex the Crimean Peninsula, marked a significant drop from January’s 49 percent foreign policy rating. In September 2012, shortly before Obama’s re-election, it was 57 percent. Republicans line up more uniformly behind their party on foreign policy than Democrats do. Asked whom they trust more to protect the country, 71 percent of Republicans chose their party. Only 39 percent of Democrats said their party most; about as many Democrats trusted both parties equally. Sixty-three percent of Republicans have more confidence in their party in an international crisis, while 44 percent of Democrats put faith in their party alone. Most Democrats did prefer their party for managing the U.S. image abroad — 51 percent said it would handle that better. About half of independents don’t trust either major party in a world crisis. “I think they’re both a little bit more aggressive than they need to be in using armies instead of going through the U.N.,” said Cameron Wooley, 18, of Orlando, Florida, who’s still deciding whom to support when she votes for the first time this year. “Maybe if we didn’t spend these massive chunks of our budget on the military we wouldn’t have the other concerns we have because of money,” Wooley said. An aspiring opera singer attending the University of North Florida in the fall, she would like to see some of that defense money handed over to the states to spend on things like education and roads. Only about half of those polled see foreign relations as highly important right now, and concern about the United States’ relationship with other countries hasn’t increased despite recent news. Jay Lofstead, a Democrat in Albuquerque, New Mexico, wants to see more involvement in the world’s problems, and he gives Obama a mixed review. “I’d like to see him get more involved on a humanitarian basis in more areas, not military support — no financial support, no weapons — but strictly humanitarian aid,” said Lofstead, 44, a supercomputer researcher at Sandia National Laboratories, who stressed that he speaks only for himself. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted July 24-28, 2014, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,044 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. It is larger for subgroups. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 30 AP-GfK Poll: Sanctions and Russia By LAURA MILLS and JUERGEN BAETZ MOSCOW (AP) — U.S. and European sanctions against Russia’s energy and finance sectors are strong enough to cause deep, long-lasting damage within months unless Moscow persuades the West to repeal them by withdrawing support for Ukrainian insurgents. The U.S. and European Union released details Wednesday of new sanctions aimed at hurting Russia’s economy without doing undue damage to their own trade interests, punishment for alleged Russian support for Ukrainian rebels and Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. The sanctions go further than earlier penalties — which had largely targeted individuals — by broadly limiting the trade of weapons and of technology that can be used in the oil and military industries. The EU also put its capital markets off-limits to Russian state-owned banks. Experts said the sanctions wouldn’t have a tremendous impact in the short term, but if left in place for months will stifle development in the Russian economy and sap its financial sector. Already, economists have revised downward their predictions for Russian growth this year, with some saying the country will go into recession. The biggest immediate impact is likely to come from the financial sanctions. U.S. officials said roughly 30 percent of Russia’s banking sector assets would now be constrained by sanctions. In a first sign of concern, Russia’s central bank said Wednesday that it would support banks targeted by the penalties. “State-owned banks are the core of the Russian banking system,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at financial services group BCS. He noted the banks are already having trouble raising money. “That would mean their ability to lend to other banks, smaller banks, is going to be more restricted also.” Last year, about a third of the bonds issued by Russia’s majority state-owned banks — 7.5 billion euros ($10 billion) — were placed in EU financial markets, according to EU officials. The measures against Russian banks, which exempt short-term borrowing, are meant to inflict just enough pain without causing them to collapse. “The aim is not to destroy these banks,” said a senior EU official, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity prior to the sanctions’ official announcement. “We do not want them to get into a liquidity crisis.” Russia’s foreign ministry complained vocally about the sanctions, criticizing the U.S. for “advancing baseless claims” about its role in Ukraine in a “pretentious, prosecutorial manner.” It criticized the EU for allowing its policy to be “dictated by Washington.” The key will be how long the sanctions stay in place. In the short term, Russia has low public debt and enough money to support its banks. The lenders themselves have large reserves. In the longer term, the sanctions could hurt by fostering a climate of uncertainty — something investors loathe. Some foreign investors are likely to stay away from the sanctioned companies. Already, as the Ukraine crisis deepened, Russia’s central bank has been forced to raise interest rates several times to stabilize the currency as foreign investors sold it off; investors are expected to pull more than $100 billion out of Russia this year. The central bank last raised rates on Friday in anticipation of the latest sanctions. Rising rates hurt the economy by making borrowing more expensive; VTB bank chairman Mikhail Zadornov told the Financial Times that the company’s retail arm cut new loans to small business by 20 percent in the first half of 2014. Even ordinary Russians were worried. “I have some concerns for my own savings,” said Indira Minigazimova, a resident of southern Siberia who was visiting Moscow. It is less clear what the impact may be of another key sanction: the EU’s block on exports of technology that can be used for oil exploration and economic development. Russia relies heavily on Western expertise, for example in drilling for oil in Arctic regions. This area has significantly more risk to Western companies — particularly BP and ExxonMobil — that have big investments in Russia. The sanctions were not expected to affect current deals and shareholdings, though it was unclear what the long-term repercussions for investments might be. EU officials noted the prohibition would target just one-tenth of overall energy tech exports to Russia. The reaction in Moscow’s stock markets was mixed Wednesday, as investors had sold off shares in Russian companies for the past two weeks, since the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine. Reports last week that the new, tougher sanctions were due had also caused markets to tumble ahead of their formal announcement Tuesday. On Wednesday, the MICEX benchmark index rose 0.9 percent, mainly thanks to a rise in the shares of companies that were spared sanctions. Shares in VTB Bank, Russia’s second-largest and one of the sanctions targets, were down 1.3 percent. EU officials emphasized that while the latest measures last for one year, they can be annulled at any time — intended as an incentive for Russia to dial back its support for the Ukrainian rebels. So far, the sanctions have had little effect on Russia’s actions in Ukraine. If anything, Russia appears to have stepped up its engagement in the conflict in recent weeks, with the U.S. and its allies saying Russia has built up troops along its border with Ukraine and sent heavy weapons to the separatists. Russia, meanwhile, slapped a ban Wednesday on fruit and vegetable imports from Poland, a vocal supporter of tougher EU penalties. Moscow said the ban was for violations of health regulations and documentation procedures for some Polish produce; Poland accused Moscow of retaliation. An Associated Press-GfK poll conducted just before the latest expansion of sanctions found 53 percent of Americans felt the U.S. had not gone far enough in sanctioning Russia, up from 41 percent who felt that way in March. A majority also supported expanding sanctions to target the Russian economy, including its energy sector, according to the survey of 1,044 Americans. The expanded sanctions drew rare cross-party support among the American public, with majorities of both Democrats and Republicans backing the move. Indeed, President Barack Obama announced more sanctions Tuesday against three major Russian banks, and said he would block future technology sales to the oil industry. Fewer of those polled felt the U.S. ought to provide military or financial support to countries if they are targeted by Russia. Despite the sanctions, Obama said the West is not entering a Soviet-era standoff with Russia. “It’s not a new Cold War,” he said. ___ AP-GfK poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Baetz reported from Brussels. Julie Pace in Washington, Geir Moulson in Berlin, Danica Kirka in London and Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed to this report. Jul 29 Poll: Immigration concerns rise with tide of kids By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN and JENNIFER AGIESTA McALLEN, Texas (AP) — For nearly two months, images of immigrant children who have crossed the border without a parent, only to wind up in concrete holding cells once in United States, have tugged at heartstrings. Yet most Americans now say U.S. law should be changed so they can be sent home quickly, without a deportation hearing. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds two-thirds of Americans now say illegal immigration is a serious problem for the country, up 14 points since May and on par with concern about the issue in May 2010, when Arizona’s passage of a strict anti-immigration measure brought the issue to national prominence. Nearly two-thirds, 62 percent, say immigration is an important issue for them personally, a figure that’s up 10 points since March. President Barack Obama’s approval rating for his handling of immigration dropped in the poll, with just 31 percent approving of his performance on the issue, down from 38 percent in May. More than 57,000 unaccompanied immigrant children have illegally entered the country since October. Most of the children hail from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, where gang violence is pervasive. Many are seeking to reunite with a parent already living in the United States. Since initially calling the surge an “urgent humanitarian situation” in early June, Obama has pressed Central American leaders to stem the flow and has asked Congress for $3.7 billion in new money to hire more immigration judges, build more detention space and process children faster. House Republicans on Tuesday put forward a bill costing $659 million through the final two months of the fiscal year that would send National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border and allow authorities to deport children more quickly. By a 2-to-1 margin, Americans oppose the current process for handling unaccompanied minors crossing the border, which requires that those who are not from Mexico or Canada stay in the U.S. and receive a hearing before a judge before they can be deported. Changing the law to allow all children crossing illegally to be sent back without such a hearing drew support from 51 percent of those polled. Obama’s proposal for emergency funding, in comparison, was favored by 32 percent and opposed by 38 percent. Santiago Moncada, a 65-year-old Austin resident who is retired from a state human resources job, said he had considered both proposals and ultimately believes the children need to be deported. “My heart goes out to them,” said Moncada, a political independent originally from the border city of Eagle Pass. “It needs to be done only because we need to send a message saying our borders are closed. You need to apply for citizenship. You need to apply to come to the United States. You can’t just cross the border illegally. “My problem is, ‘Who’s going to take care of them?’” Moncada said. “There comes a time when we have to say enough is enough.” Moncada, however, does support creating a pathway to citizenship for many of the 11 million immigrants who already entered the country illegally. He said many are contributing and should be given a way to become citizens. A majority of Americans still support such a path to citizenship, though that has slipped to 51 percent from 55 percent in May. Strong opposition to that proposal grew to 25 percent in the new poll from 19 percent in May. Patricia Thompson’s life has intersected in myriad ways with immigration over the years. She was living in South Florida when thousands of Cubans crossed the Florida Straits fleeing communism. Her son helped build part of the border fence near San Diego with the National Guard. And as an assistant professor of nursing and a college student adviser for four decades, she counseled many immigrant students. In some cases, those students had been brought to the U.S. illegally as children by their parents, said Thompson, 76, who recently relocated to Florence, Alabama, from Little Rock, Arkansas. “Those kids certainly deserve an immigration chance,” Thompson said, adding that that issue needs to be resolved before the country moves on to another. For the unaccompanied children crossing the border more recently, Thompson said they should be sent back. “We’ve got to stop this,” said Thompson, who identified herself as a Republican, but said she thought highly of some of Democratic governors in Arkansas. “We can’t take care of the whole world.” The poll found that most people — 53 percent — believe the U.S. does not have a moral obligation to offer asylum to people fleeing violence or political persecution. And 52 percent say the children entering the U.S. illegally who say they are fleeing gang violence in Central America should not be treated as refugees. Eric Svien, 57, a political independent who said he leans conservative, works on the investment side of a bank near Minneapolis, Minnesota. Immigration is not his biggest concern. It ranks somewhere behind reform of the tax code, which he said should be the priority. He said the idea of a moral obligation is a “slippery slope.” “I think we’ve probably been too open in that regard. I think at this point in time when your country’s resources get strained to the point or you just can’t be the caretaker of the world and you’ve got to draw the line somewhere,” he said. “Where that line gets drawn I hesitate to say … That might be one spot where we have to say enough is enough.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted July 24-28, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,044 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 07 AP-GfK Poll: In a polarized nation, how Democrats, Republicans see themselves and each other By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Whether it’s the Republicans or the Democrats, America’s political parties are far from beloved. Yet most people continue to align with one or the other. Those who claim allegiance to the parties say they are driven by a mix of inertia, preference for one side’s policies over the other and feeling that one can depart from the party line when necessary, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Despite heated politics, few say they prefer one party out of dislike for the other. But affiliation doesn’t always equal admiration: One-quarter of Republicans and 13 percent of Democrats say they dislike their own party. Asked what it means when a person says he or she is a Democrat or a Republican, few mention longtime affinity. More people focus on the beliefs or attitudes held by the most visible members of the party. Around 6 in 10 Americans say they identify with one of the nation’s two major parties. That figure rises to nearly 8 in 10 when those who say they lean toward either party are included. Yet both Democrats and Republicans inspire unfavorable views by a majority of Americans, including one-quarter who say they dislike both of them. About a third go so far as to say they distrust both parties to handle some of the most basic functions of government: 35 percent trust neither party to handle the federal budget, and 34 percent trust neither Democrats nor Republicans to manage the federal government or address the concerns of “people like me.” For a sizable minority, that distrust extends to many issues central to the nation’s politics, including the economy, immigration, health care and America’s image overseas. Across all 11 issues asked about in the survey, more than 1 in 5 said they lack faith in either party to handle each issue well. So why choose a party at all? Two reasons are cited as strong factors by about 4 in 10 in each party: They generally like the party’s policies, and they have been Republicans or Democrats for as long as they can remember. About a third of Republicans and a quarter of Democrats say that despite their association with a party, they don’t completely agree with what the party stands for. A small share in each party say their affiliation stems from a dislike of the other side. Thirty percent of Democrats say that liking the party’s candidates is a strong part of their Democratic identity; that slips slightly to 23 percent among Republicans. The survey also assessed views of partisans from the outside looking in, asking what it means when someone describes himself or herself as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. As the nation’s two major parties have become increasingly polarized, perceptions of those who affiliate with them reflect that trend. To 22 percent of Americans, when people call themselves Republicans, it means they’re conservative, and 24 percent say that when people describe themselves as Democrats, it means they’re liberal. In 2003, a Pew Research Center survey asking the same question found that 17 percent associated Republicans with conservatism, and 16 percent connected Democrats and liberalism. Beyond ideology, Americans react to self-professed Republicans by thinking they support the wealthy or businesses (21 percent), vote for Republican candidates or agree with the party’s issue positions (9 percent), or support a smaller government (7 percent). Views on Democrats are more varied, but 7 percent each say Democrats are for working people, support bigger government or more spending, or depend too heavily on government. Few choose to describe either party using personal attacks; about 5 percent did when asked about Republicans and 9 percent did when asked about Democrats. But cross-party descriptions skew more negative and coalesce around certain traits. Nine percent of Democrats use terms including “closed-minded,” ”racist” or “self-centered” to describe Republicans, and 16 percent of Republicans choose words such as “dumb,” ”lazy” or “immoral” when asked about Democrats. Highlighting the variation between parties, the poll even found differences in what Republicans and Democrats hear when someone tells them his or her party affiliation. Republicans seize on issues and ideology, while Democrats tend to focus on attitudes or attributes. A Republican in the survey described the GOP by highlighting issues central to the party’s identity: “Small government, strong national defense, conservative social policies, more self-reliant people rather than people looking for Uncle Sam to support them financially.” A typical Democrat, on the other hand, described her party’s approach to policy: “They have a social conscience and care about the underdog more than those in the upper socio-economic classes.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted May 16-19 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,354 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta May 29 AP-WE tv Poll: As women earn and learn more, traditional gender roles still drive dating scene By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Who ever said the dating game was logical? A new Associated Press-WE tv poll turns up all kinds of contradictions when people lay out their thoughts on dating, especially when it comes to money and gender roles. Seven in 10 of those surveyed say it’s unacceptable to expect a date to pay for everything. But most still say it’s a man’s job to pay for the first date. Most say it’s OK to ask someone out because he or she seems successful. But even more say it’s unacceptable to turn down people because they haven’t had much success. One-third think it’s OK to search for online clues about a potential first date’s success in life. But very few say daters should pay attention to each other’s finances before they are exclusive. Overall, the traits that men and women rate as important hew to traditional gender roles. Men and women agree that personality is the most important trait to consider when deciding whether to go on a first date with someone, and very few say money is a top consideration. Yet for men, a sense of humor outweighs intelligence, and they are more apt than women to prioritize looks. Most women place greater emphasis on a suitor’s financial situation and career ambitions. It’s not just older people who feel that way. The differences are amplified among younger singles. About half of single men under age 45 say looks are a priority, while 70 percent of single women under 45 call career ambitions key. There’s a clear gender gap on finances. Men are less likely than women to say they’re comfortable dating someone who makes significantly more money than they do. Seventy-one percent of women would be comfortable in that situation, compared with 59 percent of men. Women are more wary of dating someone who earns less. Forty-three percent of men would be OK dating someone with a significantly lower salary, but just 28 percent of women would. More broadly, uncoupled Americans are squeamish about dating those whose financial situations may not equal their own. A shaky financial past is generally acceptable, and more say they’re comfortable dating someone who grew up in a poor family than in a wealthy one. But a questionable present inspires doubt. Just 16 percent say they would be comfortable dating someone who is unemployed, and 23 percent say they would be comfortable dating someone with significant student loan debt. Once dating turns to commitment and love, money is a bigger consideration for women when deciding whether to wed. Among men who aren’t married or living with a partner, 84 percent say they’d marry someone they love regardless of whether she or he could provide financial security. Women are more cautious, with 61 percent would choose marriage for love without regard to financial standing. Over time, Americans’ views on how women ought to balance family and career have shifted in favor of greater choice for women. But the poll also finds a more restrictive view on how men with a family ought to view their career, suggesting the rules many apply to dating continue once families are formed. A Time/Yankelovich survey conducted in March 1978 found that about three-quarters of Americans felt women ought to put their husbands and children ahead of their careers and felt women with young children shouldn’t work outside the home unless it’s financially necessary. Now, about half hold those views. But the AP-WE tv poll also found that half of Americans believe a man with a family has a responsibility to choose a higher-paying job over one that is more satisfying, compared with 42 percent who felt that way in 1978. The poll was conducted in conjunction with WE tv ahead of the launch of the show “Mystery Millionaire.” The poll was conducted May 16-19 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,354 adults, including an oversample of 310 adults who have never been married. Results for all respondents have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com May 23 AP-GfK Poll: Sign-up success fails to translate into broad approval for Obama’s health law By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama celebrated when sign-ups for his health care law topped 8 million, far exceeding expectations after a slipshod launch. Most Americans, however, remain unimpressed. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that public opinion continues to run deeply negative on the Affordable Care Act, Obama’s signature effort to cover the uninsured. Forty-three percent oppose the law, compared with just 28 percent in support. The pattern illustrates why the health care law remains a favored target for Republicans seeking a Senate majority in the midterm elections. The poll does have a bright spot for the administration: Those who signed up for coverage aren’t reeling from sticker shock. Most said they found premiums in line with what they expected, or even lower. But even that was diminished by another finding: More than one-third of those who said they or someone in their household tried to enroll, were ultimately unable to do so. For the White House, it’s an uncomfortable reminder of the technical problems that paralyzed the HealthCare.gov website for weeks after it went live last fall. The example of business owner Henry Kulik shows some of the cross-currents of public opinion. Kulik is disabled as a result of Lou Gehrig’s disease, a condition that destroys the brain’s ability to control muscle movement. His family runs several stores that sell ice cream and other summer refreshments in the Philadelphia area. Kulik says he doesn’t believe the federal government should require people to carry health insurance, as the law does. And he can understand worries about the cost to taxpayers. On the other hand, he’s been able to slash what his family pays for health insurance by purchasing coverage through the law’s new insurance markets and by taking advantage of tax credits to lower the premiums. Before the law, his family was paying $2,400 a month. Now it’s several hundred dollars. And Kulik says the insurance for himself, his wife, and three children is comparable to what they had before. ‘‘I think there is a lot of misinformation,’’ he says. Obama’s health care law offers subsidized private coverage to middle-class people who have no health plan on the job, and it expands Medicaid to pick up low-income uninsured adults. But last fall’s launch of new health insurance markets was paralyzed technical problems. The debacle contributed to the departure of health secretary Kathleen Sebelius. After Congress approved the law in 2010, a political backlash over its Medicare cuts, tax increases and new regulations helped Republicans win the House. This fall the GOP is following a similar strategy with the Senate at stake. ‘‘Republicans hold an advantage on this issue among people who feel strongly about it,’’ said Robert Blendon of the Harvard School of Public Health, who follows opinion trends on health care. Still, just 17 percent of poll respondents said the law will be completely repealed. While that represents an increase of 5 percentage points from March, the poll found that 67 percent believe the health law will be implemented with changes, whether major or superficial. In Walhalla, South Carolina, digital publisher Greg Freeman says he’s no big fan of the president. But now into his late 30s, Freeman thought it would be a good idea to get health insurance through the new law. It took several tries to navigate the federal enrollment website, but Freeman says he’s generally satisfied. His main complaint is that his new doctor is about an hour away, in a bigger town to the east. ‘‘I can see if some of the kinks can be worked out this could be a very positive thing in the long run,’’ Freeman said. ‘‘We should be in a position to be healthiest country in the world.’’ The poll found that sign-up success translated into higher approval for the health care law. Among those who succeeded in purchasing coverage, 51 percent back the law, compared with 30 percent among those who tried to sign up and weren’t successful. In the tiny coastal Oregon town of Reedsport, locksmith Marvin Plunkett says he’s disappointed that public opinion about the law remains so negative. He was able to gain coverage through the state’s expanded Medicaid program. Plunkett recalled former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s discredited charge that the law would set up ‘‘death panels’’ to judge whether seniors should receive medical care. ‘‘The truth about it is pretty mundane,’’ he said. ‘‘But the lies are really exciting and emotional.’’ The AP-GfK Poll was conducted May 16-19, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,354 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all respondents. ___ Associated Press News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. May 22 AP-GfK Poll: Midterm, schmidterm: Nearly half in poll say it just doesn’t matter who controls Congress By CONNIE CASS and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Who cares which party controls Congress? Only about half of Americans. The other 46 percent, not so much, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Ask people whom they would rather see in charge on Capitol Hill, and Republicans finish in a dead heat with “doesn’t matter.” Democrats fare only a little better: 37 percent would prefer their leadership, compared with 31 percent each for the GOP and whatever. ”I’ve never really noticed any difference in my life depending on which party is in,” said Bob Augusto, 39, an oil refinery worker in Woodstown, New Jersey. He doesn’t expect to vote in this fall’s midterm election. Nationally, Democrats have gained a modest edge since the previous AP-GfK poll in March, but it’s not because people are liking them more. Support for Democratic leadership stayed essentially unchanged in the new poll, while Republicans lost some ground to the idea that it makes no difference who wins this November. “I think that in general people who are in Congress and people who have enough money to run for Congress are only in it for themselves,” said Jill Narushof, 52, a mother of two and part-time math tutor in Albuquerque, New Mexico, who says she’ll vote but hasn’t decided for whom. “I don’t see very many who are really interested in serving.” Parts of the poll bode well for the GOP. Republicans, whose party has successfully deployed its House majority to block President Barack Obama’s policies, are significantly more likely than either Democrats or independents to value control of Congress. And their base is more excited, too: Conservative Republicans are more concerned about party control than liberal Democrats are. With Republicans making a strong push to seize control of the Senate, only a slim majority of Americans, 53 percent, say they care a good deal about which party wins. A vast majority appear united around one thing: They’re fed up. Nearly 9 out of 10 disapprove of Congress. Two-thirds want their current representative voted out, the AP-GfK poll shows. And most — 56 percent — disapprove of the way Obama is doing his job. Still, history suggests most people won’t go to the polls to decide who runs Congress during the last two years of a presidency marked by remarkably bitter standoffs between the two political parties. Midterm elections usually draw about 40 percent of eligible voters. Most incumbents won’t face a serious threat for re-election. The Republican Party is widely expected to keep control of the House. A handful of hot races are likely to determine whether Republicans take the Senate away from Obama’s party. Because contests for the House and Senate are fought district by district and state by state, and only a third of Senate seats are involved in this year’s election, nationwide polls are of limited utility in predicting who will take the legislative majorities. Overall, those who care a good deal about party control are evenly split between the Democrats and the Republicans. More than 8 in 10 of these people say they always or nearly always vote. People who say it doesn’t matter so much are nearly twice as likely to be Democrats as Republicans, and they skew younger. Their indifference to the national stakes doesn’t necessarily mean they will all stay home on Election Day: 4 out of 10 say they usually go to the polls. A big majority of political independents fall into this whatever group. Nick Crider, a Princeton, New Jersey, chemist who co-founded his own biotechnology company, says he’s lost faith in the major parties and doesn’t care which wins. “I feel like rhetorically it makes a difference, but in actual politics and policy? Not really,” said Crider, 25, whose politics run libertarian. “If I don’t know much about the people running in a race, I just always vote against the incumbent,” he said. “I assume change is good.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted May 16-19 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,354 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Associated Press News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Connie Cass on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/ConnieCass May 03 AP-WE tv Poll: Americans say it’s OK for women to propose, but few marriages started that way, poll shows By CONNIE CASS, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Steve Paska waited two weeks for Washington’s famously fickle cherry blossoms to emerge, then spent two hours searching for the perfect spot beneath the canopy of fluff. He lured his girlfriend there on the pretext of buying a painting of the blooms. Then he surprised her by dropping to one knee and proposing. She said “yes” so fast he forgot to pull out the ring. Go to any wedding celebration this nuptial season, whether in a ballroom or backyard or church basement, and it’s a good bet you can trace the big day to a similar start, with different flourishes. If a man is marrying a woman somewhere in America, odds are that he proposed to her. That may seem obvious, but consider this: Three-fourths of Americans say it would be fine for the woman to do the proposing, in theory. In practice, only about 5 percent of those currently married say the woman proposed, and the figure is no higher among couples wed within the past 10 years. Attitudes actually seem to be trending the other way, an Associated Press-WE tv poll shows. Young adults are more likely than their elders to consider it “unacceptable” for a woman to do the asking. More than one-third of those under age 30 disapprove. While Paska, 26, believes female proposals are OK — after all, one of his sisters proposed to her boyfriend — he wanted to declare his love and dedication the traditional way. “I think If she’d gotten down on one knee and asked me the question,” Paska said, “I would have called for a timeout.” In the survey, nearly half of single women who hope to get married someday say they would consider proposing. Paska and his fiancee, Jessica Deegan, who both live in Arlington, Virginia, already had decided together that they wanted to marry, she said. Still, Deegan was thrilled that he made it official with a grand romantic gesture on April 10. “It’s kind of like the moment you imagine your whole life,” she said. “I’ve seen that in movies. I’ve read that in books. You don’t want to miss out on that moment.” That traditional moment has survived radical changes in U.S. marriages over the past half-century. People are marrying older; brides are more likely to be already supporting themselves. It’s become commonplace to live together first, even to have children before marriage. Some men are proposing to men and women to women, now that one-third of U.S. states allow gay marriage. But the boy-asks-girl proposal still reigns, updated to a public art form in Facebook and YouTube videos that feature flash mobs or scavenger hunts or proposals while skydiving or swimming with dolphins. “Destination” proposals are trending, too, for men who want a California beach or the Eiffel Tower as the setting. There are even “proposal planners” who can help arrange flowers, musicians and a videographer. Ellie Pitts, a planner who works in Dallas for The Yes Girls, said the group has handled more than 350 proposals around the country and abroad, nearly all by men. A few clients were lesbians. Only one so far was a woman asking a man — a boyfriend whose proposal she had turned down previously. “I think it probably takes a woman with a lot of guts to be able to do it,” said Pitts, who is newly engaged herself, to a man who did the asking. “At least in my experience with my girlfriends, women tend to be a little more ready to get engaged and move forward than men are, so asking the question before he asks might tend to backfire.” A woman who proposes also risks criticism for her boldness, said Katherine Parkin, an associate professor of history at Monmouth University in New Jersey. Parkin researched the folk tradition that claimed women could propose only during a leap year. She found that the idea triggered mockery every four years for much of the 20th century. Postcards, ads and articles portrayed women who would propose as desperate, aggressive and unattractive. The leap year joke has faded, she said, but the stigma lingers. “I don’t see much changing to challenge that notion, to say a regular woman, a good woman, could propose,” Parkin said, although she notes that a few celebrities, such as singer Britney Spears, have done so in the public eye. Becky Paska, sister of Steve, said she worried that proposing to her longtime boyfriend, Danny Brady, might make him feel embarrassed or emasculated. But she wanted to demonstrate the depth of her commitment, because years earlier she had accepted Brady’s surprise proposal and then backed out. So Paska, 28, asked for his hand at the Thanksgiving dinner table as her family was reflecting on their blessings. “I said I was so thankful for having him in my life, and we’d gone through so many things, and I’d love to marry him,” she said. “And he said, ‘I’d love to marry you, too.’” Paska, of Richmond, Virginia, and Brady, of Charlottesville, Virginia, plan an August wedding on the beach. In the AP-WE tv poll, recently married couples were less likely to say they got engaged by “mutual agreement,” instead of through one partner’s proposal, than were people married longer. About one-quarter of those married at least 30 years say it was a mutual decision; that drops below one-tenth of those wed in the past decade. Among the newer unions, 83 percent said the man proposed. That may reflect today’s emphasis on creating a good proposal story to share with others. Pitts, the proposal planner, said her clients usually have discussed marriage with their girlfriends and sometimes they shop for rings together before the man formally “pops the question.” The Rev. Joel Stafford of Patton, Missouri, sees nothing wrong with women taking the lead, the way his future wife did more than 40 years ago. “It just got to the point where she said, ‘Why don’t we get married?’ and I said, ‘Of course,” Stafford recalled. “I would have eventually built up the courage to do it myself. But she didn’t wait.” They did wait a little longer for the ceremony, so she could graduate high school. Stafford and his wife, Sherry, married in June 1973, raised four children and have 13 grandchildren. “Whether you are the boy or the girl, if you feel you are at the point you want to make a lifetime commitment, express that,” Stafford advises. “Don’t be shy like I was.” The poll was conducted in conjunction with WE tv from Jan. 17-21 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report ___ Follow Connie Cass on Twitter at https://twitter.com/ConnieCass ___ Online: Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 21 AP-GfK Poll: Big Bang a big question for most Americans By SETH BORENSTEIN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Few Americans question that smoking causes cancer. But they express bigger doubts as concepts that scientists consider to be truths get further from our own experiences and the present time, an Associated Press-GfK poll found. Americans have more skepticism than confidence in global warming, the age of the Earth and evolution and have the most trouble believing a Big Bang created the universe 13.8 billion years ago. Rather than quizzing scientific knowledge, the survey asked people to rate their confidence in several statements about science and medicine. On some, there’s broad acceptance. Just 4 percent doubt that smoking causes cancer, 6 percent question whether mental illness is a medical condition that affects the brain and 8 percent are skeptical there’s a genetic code inside our cells. More — 15 percent — have doubts about the safety and efficacy of childhood vaccines. About 4 in 10 say they are not too confident or outright disbelieve that the earth is warming, mostly a result of man-made heat-trapping gases, that the Earth is 4.5 billion years old or that life on Earth evolved through a process of natural selection, though most were at least somewhat confident in each of those concepts. But a narrow majority — 51 percent — questions the Big Bang theory. Those results depress and upset some of America’s top scientists, including several Nobel Prize winners, who vouched for the science in the statements tested, calling them settled scientific facts. “Science ignorance is pervasive in our society, and these attitudes are reinforced when some of our leaders are openly antagonistic to established facts,” said 2013 Nobel Prize in medicine winner Randy Schekman of the University of California, Berkeley. The poll highlights “the iron triangle of science, religion and politics,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. And scientists know they’ve got the shakiest leg in the triangle. To the public “most often values and beliefs trump science” when they conflict, said Alan Leshner, chief executive of the world’s largest scientific society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Political values were closely tied to views on science in the poll, with Democrats more apt than Republicans to express confidence in evolution, the Big Bang, the age of the Earth and climate change. Religious values are similarly important. Confidence in evolution, the Big Bang, the age of the Earth and climate change decline sharply as faith in a supreme being rises, according to the poll. Likewise, those who regularly attend religious services or are evangelical Christians express much greater doubts about scientific concepts they may see as contradictory to their faith. “When you are putting up facts against faith, facts can’t argue against faith,” said 2012 Nobel Prize winning biochemistry professor Robert Lefkowitz of Duke University. “It makes sense now that science would have made no headway because faith is untestable.” But evolution, the age of the Earth and the Big Bang are all compatible with God, except to Bible literalists, said Francisco Ayala, a former priest and professor of biology, philosophy and logic at the University of California, Irvine. And Darrel Falk, a biology professor at Point Loma Nazarene University and an evangelical Christian, agreed, adding: “The story of the cosmos and the Big Bang of creation is not inconsistent with the message of Genesis 1, and there is much profound biblical scholarship to demonstrate this.” Beyond religious belief, views on science may be tied to what we see with our own eyes. The closer an issue is to our bodies and the less complicated, the easier it is for people to believe, said John Staudenmaier, a Jesuit priest and historian of technology at the University of Detroit Mercy. Marsha Brooks, a 59-year-old nanny who lives in Washington, D.C., said she’s certain smoking causes cancer because she saw her mother, aunts and uncles, all smokers, die of cancer. But when it comes to the universe beginning with a Big Bang or the Earth being about 4.5 billion years old, she has doubts. She explained: “It could be a lack of knowledge. It seems so far” away. Jorge Delarosa, a 39-year-old architect from Bridgewater, N.J., pointed to a warm 2012 without a winter and said, “I feel the change. There must be a reason.” But when it came to Earth’s beginnings 4.5 billion years ago, he has doubts simply because “I wasn’t there.” Experience and faith aren’t the only things affecting people’s views on science. Duke University’s Lefkowitz sees “the force of concerted campaigns to discredit scientific fact” as a more striking factor, citing significant interest groups — political, business and religious — campaigning against scientific truths on vaccines, climate change and evolution. Yale’s Leiserowitz agreed but noted sometimes science wins out even against well-financed and loud opposition, as with smoking. Widespread belief that smoking causes cancer “has come about because of very public, very focused public health campaigns,” AAAS’s Leshner said. A former acting director of the National Institute of Mental Health, Leshner said he was encouraged by the public’s acceptance that mental illness is a brain disease, something few believed 25 years ago, before just such a campaign. That gives Leiserowitz hope for a greater public acceptance of climate change, but he fears it may be too late to do anything about it. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted March 20-24, 2014, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,012 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ On Twitter, follow AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein at http://twitter.com/borenbears and AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta at http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta . ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 09 AP-GfK Poll: Most say filing tax returns is easy; few willing to pay more for simpler forms By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Struggling to figure out your federal tax return? You’re not alone, but you’re in the minority. With the tax filing deadline looming next week, a majority of Americans say completing a federal tax return is easy, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The findings defy conventional wisdom in Washington, where politicians have made careers out of promising a simpler tax system. In another blow to advocates of tax reform, almost no one is willing to pay higher taxes in exchange for a simpler code. “If you’ve got the equivalent of a high school degree and you know how to do math, it’s very simple,” said Sara Thornton, a small business owner from East Granby, Conn. Only 7 percent of those surveyed say they would be willing to pay more in federal taxes if the process of filling out a tax return were easier. Some 90 percent say “no, thanks.” “No, because I don’t know that it is that difficult,” said Alicia Brown of suburban Des Moines, Iowa. “We already pay outlandish taxes because we live in Iowa. We have very high real estate taxes.” The tax-writing committees in Congress have spent the past several years trying to build momentum for the herculean task of simplifying the tax code. One reason it’s so difficult is there are bound to be winners and losers. Sweeping changes to precious tax breaks will undoubtedly leave some people paying more, while others pay less. One selling point for tax reform has been a simpler tax form. Ever hear a politician say you should be able to fill out your taxes on the back of a postcard? You’ll probably hear it again during this fall’s elections. The National Taxpayer Advocate says filers spend a total of 6.1 billion hours a year preparing tax returns, at a cost of $168 billion. According to the IRS, 90 percent of filers either pay a tax preparer or use computer software to help them fill out their returns. But 58 percent in the AP-GfK poll say completing a federal tax return is easy. Thirty-eight percent call it hard. Fully 86 percent who have completed their tax forms say they are extremely confident or very confident that they filled them out correctly. Not surprisingly, higher income taxpayers are more likely to say that filling out tax forms is difficult. Wealthy people tend to have more complicated taxes because they often have multiple sources of income and they are more likely to itemize their deductions, making them eligible for more tax breaks. Forty-five percent of those with incomes above $100,000 said it is hard, compared with 33 percent among those making less than $50,000. Through March 28, the IRS has processed 89 million returns. About 82 percent have qualified for refunds, averaging $2,831. That’s about $207 billion in tax refunds. Almost 91 percent of returns have been filed electronically. Americans think most of their fellow taxpayers are honest, but not all of them. On average, poll-takers estimate that about one-third of Americans intentionally cheat when filling out their tax returns. Erma Pierce of Poplar Bluff in southeast Missouri said she thinks about half of people cheat on their taxes, and she takes a dim view of it. “You’re not supposed to cheat, lie or steal,” Pierce said. “It’s against the Bible.” Thornton, the small business owner in Connecticut, said her estimate depends on the definition of cheating. “People think of cheating as a case of, I reported I have nine children and I only have two. Or I reported I only made $20,000 this year and I actually made $50,000,” Thornton said. “They think of those forms of cheating, the absolute blatant, extravagant forms.” Thornton’s definition of cheating is broader, which is why she thinks 80 percent to 90 percent of people cheat on their taxes. “The minor forms of cheating are things like, well, I can increase my charitable deduction by $200,” Thornton said. “Most people consider, quote, unquote padding their income tax reporting or shaving it off a little bit, they don’t necessarily view that as cheating.” “I define that as cheating only because it really is.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted March 20-24, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,012 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Follow Stephen Ohlemacher on Twitter: http://twitter.com/stephenatap Apr 05 AP-GfK Poll: Election indicators suggest GOP edge By, JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press (AP) – The latest Associated Press-GfK poll holds bad news for President Barack Obama, but as the November elections draw closer, there are ominous signs for congressional Democrats as well. A look at the key findings from the March poll on this year’s election and the burgeoning 2016 presidential field. GOP GAINING GROUND Preferences for control of Congress are tight, but Republicans have gained on Democrats since January. Thirty-six percent in last month’s poll said they would rather see the Democrats in charge of Congress and 37 percent chose Republicans. Democrats held a narrow advantage on that question in January, when 39 percent favored the Democrats and 32 percent the Republicans. Democrats are in the majority in the Senate while Republicans run the House. The shift stems largely from a change among those most interested in politics. In the new poll, registered voters who are most strongly interested in politics favored the Republicans by 14 percentage points, 51 percent to 37 percent. In January, this group was about evenly split, with 42 percent preferring Democrats and 45 percent the Republicans. That’s not the only positive sign in the poll for the Republicans. Favorable views of the GOP have improved, with 38 percent overall now saying they hold a favorable impression of the Party. Republicans’ positive view of their own party has increased from 57 percent in January to 72 percent now. Even impressions of the tea party movement have shifted more positive in recent months. GOP favorability still lags behind that of the Democrats, however, with 43 percent holding a favorable view of the Democratic Party. ___ CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL STAGNANT Congressional approval is stagnant and negative, with just 16 percent saying they approve while 82 percent disapprove. Among those who have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of interest in politics, 90 percent disapprove, including 61 percent who strongly disapprove. Nearly 4 in 10 (39 percent) would like to see their own member of Congress re-elected, an improvement since January. Among registered voters who say they pay a great deal of attention to politics, 44 percent say they would like to see their current member re-elected, compared with 33 percent in January. Here, there’s a glimmer of hope for Democrats. Those who consider themselves Democrats are now more likely than Republicans to say their own member of Congress ought to be re-elected. Not all Democrats live in districts represented by Democrats, of course, but it represents a shift in opinion since January. ___ WHO’S IN CHARGE With control of Congress divided between the parties, most Americans say Obama has a lot or quite a bit of control over what the federal government does, outpacing the share who say the Democrats or Republicans in Congress are in control. Partisans tend to see the opposition as the controlling force, with Republicans more apt than Democrats to see Obama in charge, and Democrats more likely to say the Republicans have the upper hand. Six in 10 (62 percent) of those with a great deal or quite a bit of interest in politics say Obama has a lot or quite a bit of control of what the federal government does. Just half (51 percent) of those closely attuned to politics say Democrats in Congress exert a similar influence over what the federal government does and 40 percent say the same about Republicans in Congress. There’s little change since December in which party Americans trust more to handle major issues. Democrats’ strong points are on handling social issues, including same-sex marriage (31 percent prefer Democrats, 17 percent the Republicans) and abortion (30 percent prefer Democrats, 22 percent Republicans). Republicans have the edge on protecting the country, 34 percent to 16 percent, a slightly wider margin than they held on the question in December. ___ LOOKING TO 2016? NOT SO MUCH The poll measured impressions of 19 potential 2016 presidential candidates, and found that a majority of those surveyed offered an opinion about just seven of them. The other 12 have quite a lot of introducing themselves to do if they are to make a run for the White House. Most people said either they hadn’t heard of them or skipped the question. Hillary Rodham Clinton generated the most positive response of the bunch, with 46 percent viewing the former secretary of state and first lady favorably and 39 percent unfavorably. Among potential GOP contenders, none generated a net positive reaction from the public, with 2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan faring best – 27 percent viewed him favorably, 29 percent unfavorably. Among Republicans, majorities have favorable impressions of Ryan and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. But in a sign that the past isn’t always prologue, nearly half of Republicans say they don’t know enough to have an opinion about former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a large factor in the 2012 nomination fight. ___ The AP-GfK Poll was conducted March 20-24, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,012 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta Mar 29 AP-GfK poll: Fans believe Florida will top tourney By The Associated Press NEW YORK (AP) — A new poll from The Associated Press and GfK says that the quarter of Americans who are following this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament believe the Gators are the overwhelming favorites to win it all. Twenty-nine percent of those with at least some interest in March Madness think Billy Donovan’s Florida team will take home this year’s crown. The poll also found about 5 percent of Americans are following news about the tournament extremely closely, 6 percent are following very closely and 14 percent somewhat closely. The AP-GfK poll was conducted online March 20-24 among 1,019 adults from a probability-based panel. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Mar 28 AP-GfK Poll: Obama’s health care fails to gain support; Americans expect fixes, not repeal AP-GfK Poll: Obama’s health care fails to gain support; Americans expect fixes, not repeal By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and DENNIS JUNIUS, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Public support for President Barack Obama’s health care law is languishing at its lowest level since passage of the landmark legislation four years ago, according to a new poll. The Associated Press-GfK survey finds that 26 percent of Americans support the Affordable Care Act. Yet even fewer — 13 percent — think it will be completely repealed. A narrow majority expects the law to be further implemented with minor changes, or as passed. “To get something repealed that has been passed is pretty impossible,” said Gwen Sliger of Dallas. “At this point, I don’t see that happening.” Sliger illustrates the prevailing national mood. Although a Democrat, she’s strongly opposed to Obama’s signature legislation. But she thinks “Obamacare” is here to stay. “I like the idea that if you have a pre-existing condition you can’t be turned down, but I don’t like the idea that if you don’t have health insurance you’ll be fined,” said Sliger. The poll was taken before Thursday’s announcement by the White House that new health insurance markets have surpassed the goal of 6 million sign-ups, so it did not register any of the potential impact of that news on public opinion. Open enrollment season began with a dysfunctional HealthCare.gov website last Oct. 1 but will end Monday on what looks to be a more positive note. Impressions of the health care rollout while low, have improved slightly. While only 5 percent of Americans say the launch of the insurance exchanges has gone very or extremely well, the number who think it has gone at least somewhat well has improved from 12 percent in December to 26 percent now. The exchanges offer subsidized private coverage to people without a plan on the job. Of those who said they or someone in their household tried signing up for coverage, 59 percent said there were problems. Repealing the health care law is the rallying cry of Republicans running to capture control of the Senate in the fall congressional elections. The Republican-led House has already voted more than 50 times to repeal, defund or scale back “Obamacare,” but has been stymied in its crusade by Democrats running the Senate. Thursday, five Democratic senators and one independent — three facing re-election — introduced a package of changes to the law that seems calibrated to public sentiment. One of their major proposals would spare companies with fewer than 100 employees from a requirement to provide coverage to their workers. The current cutoff is 50. The poll found that 7 in 10 Americans believe the law will be implemented with changes. Forty-two percent think those changes will be minor, and 30 percent say they think major changes are in store. Combining the 42 percent who see minor changes coming and 12 percent who say they think the law will be implemented as passed, a narrow majority of 54 percent see either tweaks in store, or no changes at all. Larry Carroll, 64, a church deacon from Cameron, W.Va., says he would like to see major changes — but he doesn’t have high hopes. “I think it’s much too big a thing for the country to be taking on,” said Cameron, who’s strongly opposed to the overhaul. “I don’t see repeal,” he added. “The federal bureaucracy simply seems to be too strong. The federal bureaucracy is like an anaconda.” Teresa Stevens, a factory supervisor from Jacksonville, Fla., said her two adult sons shopped for coverage on the health insurance exchanges and found it too expensive. “There are so many different things they say about (the law) that are not true,” she said. “It’s not affordable.” A supporter of former Democratic President Bill Clinton, Stevens said the economy has soured for working people under Obama. “Everything is so expensive, not just health care,” she said. The poll found that much of the slippage for the health care law over the last four years has come from a drop in support, not an increase in opposition. In April of 2010, soon after the law passed, 50 percent of Americans said they were opposed to it, while 39 percent were in favor. Ten percent were on the fence. Now, just 26 percent say they are in favor, a drop of 13 percentage points. Forty-three percent say they are opposed, a drop of 7 percentage points since that poll four years ago. But the number who neither support nor oppose the law has tripled, to 30 percent. The 26 percent in favor in the AP-GfK poll is not significantly different from the 27 percent registered in January and December. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted March 20-24 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,012 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. Mar 26 Associated Press-GfK Poll: Ukraine crisis sinks Obama’s already-low approval rating, but sanctions draw support By CONNIE CASS and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Foreign policy used to stand out as a not-so-bleak spot in the public’s waning assessment of Barack Obama. Not anymore. He’s getting low marks for handling Russia’s swoop into Ukraine, and more Americans than ever disapprove of the way Obama is doing his job, according to a new AP-GfK poll. Despite the poor performance reviews, Obama’s primary tactic so far — imposing economic sanctions on key Russians — has strong backing. Close to 9 out of 10 Americans support sanctions as a response to Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula, the poll indicates. About half of that group says the U.S. sanctions so far are about right, while the other half wants to see them strengthened, the Associated Press-GfK poll found. Most Democrats say the sanctions are OK, while a majority of Republicans finds them too weak. “We’re supposed to be a country that helps smaller countries in need,” said Christopher Ashby, 29, a Republican in Albemarle, N.C., who wants a more powerful response. “Ukraine at this time is definitely in need.” Ashby, a stay-at-home dad caring for three young daughters, said, “When I look at Obama, I see my 5-year-old daughter looking at something that just happened and saying ‘What do I do?’” Overall disapproval of the job Obama is doing ticked up to 59 percent — a record high for his presidency — in the poll released Wednesday. His 41 percent approval rating is a sobering number for fellow Democrats running in this fall’s House and Senate elections. Americans are now divided over which party they would rather see in control of Congress. Democrats held a slight edge over Republicans in the January AP-GfK poll. Obama gets lowest marks for his handling of the federal budget, immigration and the economy. Support for Obama’s education policies, which had been a strong point, dipped into negative territory this month, too. Republicans have long criticized the president as too weak in asserting American power abroad. Yet until now, foreign policy hasn’t been a drag on Obama’s second term: Americans were about as likely to endorse his actions as to disapprove. Now he’s hit a new low on international relations — just 40 percent approval. Majorities say they dislike Obama’s handling of the Ukraine situation (57 percent) and his interactions with Russia (54 percent). Almost half of those polled say they support imposing tougher sanctions if Russia pushes into new regions or other countries; only 14 percent are opposed. That backs up threats from Obama and Western allies to target Russia’s economy with damaging sanctions if President Vladimir Putin goes further. About a third of those surveyed said they oppose giving monetary aid to nations targeted by Russia. Only about 20 percent approve of financial support, while the biggest share is neutral. This week Congress is considering $1 billion in loan guarantees for Ukraine sought by Obama. The idea of lending any type of military support to Ukraine is unpopular, the poll says. Obama has said there are no plans to use military force to dislodge Russia from the Crimean Peninsula. Richard Johnson, a politically independent retiree in Redmond, Wash., said the United States shouldn’t have gotten involved at all, especially since many Crimean residents favor Russia. “They’re protesting in both directions, right?” Johnson said. “So I just feel like we’ve got enough problems here at home, why are we looking for more trouble?” Johnson, pausing from wiring work on his do-it-yourself kitchen remodel, said he still supports Obama nevertheless. “He’s trying to do what he believes is best,” said Johnson, 62. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted March 20-24, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,012 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Follow Connie Cass on Twitter at https://twitter.com/ConnieCass ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 13 AP-WE tv Poll: Go ahead, get your Valentine a present. Odds are, he or she will appreciate it By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Unsure what to get your sweetheart this Valentine’s Day? Nothing is the wrong answer. An Associated Press-WE tv survey found only 17 percent of adults in committed relationships say they don’t want a gift this Friday or are skipping the holiday. Flowers and candy top the list of preferred gifts. But there are those who want something pricey like a car, jewelry or a vacation, and others who’d be fine with a teddy bear. About a third say they’d most like to have intangibles such as time together, health or happiness. Overall, the survey found that Cupid’s arrow hits the target for most Americans. Two-thirds of paired-off adults feel their relationships are perfect or nearly so. A scant 3 percent think their partnerships have serious problems. All told, 68 percent of Americans are in committed relationships of some kind, and 11 percent aren’t currently coupled but would like to be. Seventeen percent say they aren’t seeking a relationship. In this love-struck society, Valentine’s Day holds strong appeal. About 6 in 10 say they’re excited about Feb. 14, while a third say they feel more dread about the approaching onslaught of candy, flowers and dimly lit restaurants. Apprehension isn’t limited to the lonely: Even 11 percent of those who say they are in a great relationship dread Valentine’s Day. Contrary to stereotypes, men are just as excited as women about Valentine’s Day. In a more expected finding, men are more likely than women to say they’re hoping for sex as a gift Friday (10 percent among men, 1 percent among women). Women are more apt to wish for flowers (19 percent vs. 1 percent among men). The survey found no significant gender differences on jewelry, chocolate or teddy bears. A notable generational divide emerged on the gift front: Americans age 65 or older are more likely to say they’d like a card or note this Valentine’s Day (17 percent of seniors want a card; just 1 percent under age 30 say that’s their gift of choice). Perhaps there’s a lesson for the young: Seniors are also most apt to say their relationships are perfect and to see time spent with their partner as a key benefit of their relationship. The poll, conducted by GfK Public Affairs and Corporate Communications, also explored how Americans find partners and how they prioritize pairing off vs. other life goals. For the 11 percent of Americans currently trying to find a committed relationship, there are all kinds of tools available to help. But traditional methods — asking out someone you know or having friends set you up on a date — outpace technological ones. Forty-one percent have used an online dating service, while 19 percent have tried an app that connects them to people nearby. Overall, about half of adults say getting married or finding a romantic partner are important life goals, while more than two-thirds consider saving for retirement, owning a home or success in a career their most important or a very important goal. For those who’ve found love and feel their relationship could use a little work, 75 percent are willing to make a great deal of effort or more to fix those problems. Three percent say they’re unwilling to work on their issues. Most of those, 72 percent, who see any kind of problem in their relationship attribute it to both partners equally. One in 6 says blame lies mostly with his or her partner. The bigger the problem, the more apt one is to blame a partner. Among those who say their relationships have only minor problems, 9 percent blame their partner, compared with 26 percent who report bigger issues. One in 8 accepts the blame for any relationship problems. That peaks among married men, 21 percent of whom say their relationship flaws are their own fault, compared with just 5 percent among married women who see trouble in their relationships. And what vexes Americans’ relationships most? More than 4 in 10 of those who say there are problems in their current relationship cite issues with their sex lives, communication, romance or finances. Those in unmarried couples were generally more apt to see problems than married people, except for two areas: sex life and romance. The poll was conducted in conjunction with WE tv ahead of the launch of the show “Marriage Boot Camp,” from Jan. 17-21 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Feb 04 AP-GfK Sochi Winter Olympics Poll: More than half Americans plan to follow Olympics By RONALD BLUM NEW YORK (AP) — Just over half of Americans surveyed plan to watch or follow the Winter Olympics, according to an Associated Press-GfK Poll, and one-third of respondents say they have only a little or no confidence about Russia’s ability to safeguard safety at the Sochi Games that start this week. The likely audience for the Olympics is on the older side, with 65 percent age 50 or over planning to follow the quadrennial event compared with 47 percent among younger adults, according to the survey, conducted from Jan. 17-21. Few are deeply confident Russia can keep the games safe: 19 percent are extremely or very confident Russia will protect the Olympics from terrorist attacks, 46 percent are somewhat confident and 33 percent just a little or not at all confident. ___ Asked how they would follow the games, 86 percent who said they would follow plan to watch events on television, while 17 percent intend to view online streams. Thirty-five percent say they will read about the results online and 20 percent in newspapers. There’s a broad age gap, with one-third under age 40 planning to follow online streams and just 9 percent aiming to follow the Olympics in newspapers. Among senior citizens, 37 percent intend to read about the games in newspapers. With the competition held in a time zone nine hours from the U.S. Eastern Standard Time, NBC’s prime-time coverage will include replayed events, but few are concerned about spoilers. Sixty-eight percent of respondents say it won’t matter if they know the results before broadcasts, and just 20 percent of those planning to watch will actively avoid learning of the results of events they care about prior to the telecasts. While 61 percent of whites are interested in following the Olympics, the percentage among nonwhites dips to 43 percent. Sixty-nine percent from households with incomes of $100,000 or more plan to watch, with 26 percent in that group intending to avoid spoilers. Figure skating is by far the most popular Winter Olympic sport, with 24 percent citing it as their favorite. A mixed team event was added this year in figure skating, which has competitive events on 11 of the Olympics’ 18 days. Ice hockey is a distant second at 6 percent, followed by Alpine skiing and snowboarding at 4 percent each. Forty-six percent of respondents say they have no preference. Among those planning to watch or follow, the percentage identifying figure skating as their favorite rises to 35 percent. There’s a gender gap, however, with 55 percent of women who plan to watch calling figure skating their favorite, compared with 15 percent of men. Among men, ice hockey runs even with figure skating; 16 percent call it their favorite. While 45 percent of senior citizens who plan to watch say figure skating is their favorite, that falls to 24 percent for people under 40. Snowboarding tops the list for 12 percent under age 40. Speedskating is the favorite of 11 percent of nonwhites but just 3 percent of whites. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults, and had a sampling error margin of plus-or-minus 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP Director of polling Jennifer Agiesta and news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jan 29 Wage hike for federal contract workers limited By: SAM HANANEL (AP) WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s plan to raise the minimum wage for federally contracted workers is winning praise from unions and labor activists, but it could take a year or more before any hikes take place and the impact may not be as widespread as some advocates had hoped. Obama announced in his State of the Union address Tuesday that he will sign an executive order setting the minimum wage for workers covered by new federal contracts at $10.10 an hour, a hefty increase over the current federal minimum of $7.25. “I think it’s a huge step forward in that every action headed in the direction of lifting wages puts pressure on Congress to act,” said Mary Kay Henry, president of the Service Employees International Union, which has spent millions to help federally contracted workers and fast-food employees organize protests and strikes to demand higher wages. But the increase is only expected to cover about 10 percent of the 2.2 million federal contract workers overall, since most of those employees already make more than $10.10. It won’t take effect until 2015 at the earliest and doesn’t affect existing federal contracts, only new ones. Another wrinkle: The order won’t affect contract renewals unless other terms of the agreement change, such as the type of work or number of employees needed, according to White House officials. That caveat is raising concerns for Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minn., who has spent months urging Obama to increase wages for contractors. While Ellison called the announcement “a great first step,” he said he wants to make sure it’s implemented the right way. “If you renew a contract, we expect everyone to make $10.10,” Ellison said. Ellison said White House officials have estimated that about 200,000 low-wage workers would be affected by the order, including food service workers in federal buildings, security guards, cleaners and groundskeepers. The White House has not said whether the wage increase will be indexed to go up as inflation rises, but that is also something Ellison would like to see once the executive order is drafted. Obama hopes his order will pressure Congress “to get on board” and pass legislation increasing the minimum wage to $10.10 for all employees. The move is sure to add to the growing debate about whether workers in low-wage industries like retail and fast-food should be paid more. And it is winning wide praise from Democratic lawmakers who want to pass a wage increase this year. Obama’s announcement was a victory for labor unions who have stepped up public pressure on Obama to help raise wages. Government contract workers — with the backing of unions and other worker advocacy groups — have held protests seven times since last May to protest low pay for those working at landmark government buildings, including the Pentagon, the Smithsonian museums and Union Station. Those protesters have specifically called on Obama to raise their wages through an executive order. Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said raising the minimum wage would place a new burden on employers and hinder job creation. “It’s simple math — if the cost of hiring goes up, hiring goes down,” Shay said. Over at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, senior vice president Randy Johnson said the order appears to be very limited, but he’s waiting to see the fine print. Johnson also questioned whether Obama has legal authority to issue an order that conflicts with current federal minimum wage legislation passed by Congress. A recent survey by the National Employment Law Project found that 77 percent of government contract employees who work in food service, retail or janitorial service earn less than $10 per hour. About 4 in 10 of those workers depend on public assistance programs such as food stamps and Medicaid, the study by the worker advocacy group found. The latest Associated Press-GfK poll found that 55 percent of Americans back an increase in the minimum wage, while 21 percent oppose it and 23 percent are neutral. Most, 52 percent, say an increase in the minimum wage would do more to help than hurt the economy, while 27 percent feel it would do more harm than good. One in 5 thinks it wouldn’t have much impact on the economy. Among Democrats, 77 percent favor an increase and 10 percent oppose it. Among Republicans, only 32 percent support an increase, 39 percent are opposed and 29 percent are neutral. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Christine Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project, said Obama’s order could have a ripple effect on private employers in some industries and may help other workers who already earn slightly more than $10.10 get a wage boost as well. That has happened in past years when Congress raised the minimum wage, she said. “Any concrete step that moves in the direction of raising wages for any workers contributes positively to the debate,” Owens said. Unions representing federal workers applauded Obama’s announcement but complained that the president should also be supporting legislation to increase wages for the government’s own employees who earn less than $10.10 an hour. “If the president is to have any credibility in talking about living wages, he needs to get his own house in order first and do everything in his power to establish $10.10 as the minimum wage for all federal hourly workers,” said J. David Cox, president of the American Federation of Government Employees. ___ Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. Follow Sam Hananel on Twitter at http://twitter.com/SamHananelAP Jan 28 AP-GfK Poll: AP-GfK poll: Deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program holds support _ even if it might not work By LARA JAKES and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of Americans support an agreement by the U.S. and five other world powers to limit Iran’s disputed nuclear program, but fewer believe it will keep the Islamic republic from building a nuclear bomb. A new Associated Press-GfK poll gave President Barack Obama lower marks for his dealings with Iran. The five-day survey, conducted Jan. 17-21, was ongoing as the interim agreement went into effect. It calls for Iran to cap uranium enrichment at a level far below what’s necessary to build a nuclear weapon. In exchange, world powers agreed to ease international sanctions by an estimated $7 billion to give some short-term relief to Iran’s crippled economy. The temporary compromise is set to expire in July, giving negotiators six months to work on a plan to permanently prevent Iran’s nuclear program from becoming a threat. The poll indicated that 60 percent of American adults approve of the six-month agreement. But fewer than half — 47 percent — believe it might work. ”From a diplomatic standpoint, it would be great to be able to negotiate and come up with a solution that would eliminate the chance for nuclear weapons for Iran,” respondent Lance Hughey, 40, a lawyer from LaCrosse, Wis., said Monday. However, “Iran is a difficult country to trust,” said Hughey, who identified himself as an independent voter with slightly Republican leanings. “And the leadership that we see out of D.C., the way things have been conducted with Syria … I don’t believe (the president) has the leadership skills to deal with Iran.” The poll concluded that overall, 42 percent approve of how Obama handles Iran — about the same as 44 percent in December. Fewer strongly approve of his performance, 25 percent now compared with 30 percent in December. Obama is the first U.S. president to talk directly with an Iranian leader since 1979, when the Iranian Revolution toppled the pro-U.S. shah and brought Islamic militants to power. Obama and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke briefly by phone in late September, and opened the way for meetings and negotiations between U.S. and Iranian diplomats. But the Obama administration has come under fire from lawmakers who say the tough trade and financial sanctions should not be eased until Iran agrees to all international demands, including settling once and for all any concerns that it may be trying to produce nuclear weapons. Iran has denied it is seeking a bomb and says it is pursuing nuclear capabilities for peaceful purposes. The next round of negotiations with Iran is expected to be held in New York next month. The U.S. and its negotiating partners — Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia — will be seeking a long-term agreement to halt Iran’s nuclear program The AP-GfK Poll was conducted using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all respondents. Those respondents who did not have Internet access before joining the panel were provided it for free. AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Follow Lara Jakes on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/larajakesAP and Jennifer Agiesta at: https://twitter.com/JennAgiesta Jan 27 AP-GfK poll: Americans value privacy over security By EILEEN SULLIVAN and JENNIFER AGIESTA WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans are unimpressed with President Barack Obama’s efforts to restore trust in government in the wake of disclosures about secret surveillance programs that swept up the phone records of hundreds of millions in the United States. And Americans are increasingly placing personal privacy ahead of being kept safe from terrorists, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. More than 60 percent of respondents said they value privacy over anti-terror protections. That’s up slightly from 58 percent in a similar poll in August conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Obama has been fighting to regain public trust after a former National Security Agency analyst last year revealed some of the intelligence community’s most well-kept secrets about spying on Americans. The U.S. public, Congress and allies overseas were shocked to learn the extent of the NSA’s post-9/11 surveillance, including the dragnet collection and storage of Americans’ phone records. Soon after Edward Snowden’s disclosure in June, Obama promised to review the system that has changed rapidly as technology improved. Last week the president announced he was placing new limits on the way the intelligence community accesses phone records from hundreds of millions of Americans. He said he was moving toward eventually stripping the massive data collection from the government’s hands. And he called for a panel of advocates to represent privacy and civil liberty concerns before the secret court that oversees the surveillance programs. But the poll found that was not enough to allay most Americans’ concerns. Nearly 60 percent of respondents said they disapprove of the way Obama is handling intelligence surveillance policies. And 61 percent said they prioritize protecting Americans’ rights and freedoms over making sure Americans are safe from terrorists. Only 34 percent support Obama’s plan to create a panel of outside attorneys to offer an opposing argument to the government before the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. And just 17 percent of those polled support moving the data the government collects about telephone calls outside of government hands. In an effort to be more transparent, the intelligence community has declassified thousands of pages of documents related to the secret programs, including stinging rebukes from judges about the NSA’s violation of some of the program’s rules. But Americans are split on whether the government should publicly justify its surveillance programs to prove they don’t violate civil rights. Some 49 percent said keeping the details of the programs secret is more important than justifying their legality. Most people under 30 said it’s more important to disclose the details of the programs, while most Americans age 65 or over said the U.S. intelligence gathering details should remain secret. Most Americans said Snowden was wrong to disclose these classified programs. Younger Americans are more apt to support what Snowden, 30, did. Snowden fled the country before his revelations became public. He is currently living in Russia, granted temporary asylum from the criminal charges he faces in the United States for disseminating classified information. A government review panel warned last week that the NSA’s daily collection of Americans’ phone records is illegal and recommended that Obama abandon the program and destroy the hundreds of millions of phone records it has already collected. The recommendations by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board go further than Obama is willing to accept and increase pressure on Congress to make changes. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 17-21 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all respondents. Those respondents who did not have Internet access before joining the panel were provided it for free. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jan 27 AP-GfK poll: Breaches not changing people’s habits By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO NEW YORK (AP) — American shoppers say they are very concerned about the safety of their personal information following a massive security breach at Target, but many aren’t taking steps to ensure their data is more secure, says a new Associated Press–GfK Poll. The poll finds a striking contradiction: Americans say they fear becoming victims of theft after the breach that compromised 40 million credit and debit cards and personal information of up to 70 million customers. Yet they are apathetic to try to protect their data. In the survey, nearly half of Americans say they are extremely concerned about their personal data when shopping in stores since the breach. Fifty-eight percent say they have deep worries when spending online, while 62 percent are very concerned when they buy on their mobile phones. But just 37 percent have tried to use cash for purchases rather than pay with plastic in response to data thefts like the one at Target, while only 41 percent have checked their credit reports. And even fewer have changed their online passwords at retailers’ websites, requested new credit or debit card numbers from their bank or signed up for a credit monitoring service. The poll offers insight into the effects big data breaches can have on consumer behavior. There have been worries that shoppers would dramatically change their habits since December, when Target announced the breach that could wind up being the largest in U.S. history. Weeks later, those concerns were elevated when luxury retailer Neiman Marcus disclosed that it too was the victim of a breach that may have compromised 1.1 million debit and credit cards. But security experts say the results show that Americans have come to expect that security theft is a possibility when they use their credit or debit cards or provide retailers with phone numbers, emails and other personal information. “They … just chalk it up to … ‘It’s part of life,’” says Cameron Camp, security researcher at global security firm ESET who believes people don’t think they will be liable for fraudulent charges. Experts also say the results show another expectation Americans have: While nearly 4 out of 10 say they have been victimized by personal data theft, most expect credit card companies, banks or retailers to take responsibility when that happens. About 38 percent report that they think they have either had someone make unauthorized purchases using their credit or debit cards without it having been physically stolen or that someone had used their personal information to apply for a fraudulent line of credit, the poll says. And just over a third of Americans think their personal information was compromised in the breach at Target. But the survey shows that just 37 percent say consumers bear most of the responsibility for keeping their data safe, while 88 percent place the burden on the retailers who are collecting it. Six in 10 say the banks that provide credit or debit cards or the credit bureaus should bear most of the responsibility. Andrea Davis doesn’t believe she was affected by the Target breach, but she recently found unauthorized charges on her American Express credit card. Still, she hasn’t taken steps to make her data more secure because she says she feels protected when she uses her Amex card. In fact, American Express immediately took off the charges after she notified the company. “You feel discouraged, but in the end, everyone gets their money,” says Davis, who lives in Marina del Rey, Calif. “It is what it is.” The sentiment was different among Americans who’ve been victims of personal data theft. In that group, 52 percent have checked their credit report, while 41 percent have tried to use more cash. Twenty-eight percent have signed up for a credit monitoring service. Eve Sims signed up for a credit card monitoring service for a monthly fee of $14 about five years ago after she found fraudulent charges from Nigeria on her credit card. “It’s worth it,” she says. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 17 through Tuesday and involved interviews with 1,060 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The poll used KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel that is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later, completed this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have Internet access were provided with access at no cost to them. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jan 27 AP-GfK Poll: Negative views of health rollout ease as more sign up; consumers still skeptical By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Memo to the White House: The website may be fixed, but President Barack Obama’s new health insurance markets have yet to win over most consumers. Negative perceptions of the health care rollout have eased, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds. But overall, two-thirds of Americans say things still aren’t going well. Of those who’ve tried to sign up, or who live with someone who has, 71 percent have encountered problems. But the share reporting success jumped to 40 percent from a meager 24 percent in December. “Everything is not perfect; it takes time to work out the glitches,” said Carol Lyles, a homecare provider from Los Angeles who was able to get coverage as a result of the law. “If done right, I believe it will provide the services that are needed. “The poll comes with about 60 days left in open enrollment season. The administration is playing catch-up to meet its goal of signing up 7 million people in new insurance exchanges that offer subsidized private coverage to middle-class households. So far, the markets have attracted an older crowd that tends to be more costly to cover. Younger people in the coveted 18-34 age group are still mainly on the sidelines. While the poll did not find a turnaround for “Obamacare,” the trend offers some comfort for supporters of the health care law. In December, 76 percent of adults had said the opening of the new markets was not going well. Such negative perceptions have now fallen 10 points to 66 percent. Still, rave reviews remain rare. Only 4 percent said things were going extremely or very well, while another 17 percent said things were going somewhat well. Compare that to 38 percent who said the rollout had gone not at all well. Another 28 percent said things were not going too well. Add those together and it makes up two-thirds of the public. “People were locked out of the system,” said Karyle Knowles, a restaurant server from San Antonio. “They weren’t able to access what they should have, which only added to the mayhem. “The White House had hoped to bring the ease of online shopping to the daunting process of buying health insurance. Instead, the federal website serving 26 states froze up when it was launched Oct. 1. Some of the 14 states running their own sites also encountered problems. It took the better part of two months to straighten out the issues with the federal exchange. The administration reported Friday that 3 million people have now signed up for private coverage through federal and state markets, and another 6.3 million have been deemed eligible for Medicaid coverage. It’s not clear how many of those were previously uninsured. According to the poll, many website users have had a frustrating experience. Among those who’ve tried to sign up, just 8 percent say it worked well, 29 percent somewhat well, 53 percent not well. The public’s take on the law itself is stable, with 27 percent saying they back it, 42 percent opposed and 30 percent neutral. Those figures are unchanged since December. People who have tried to sign up are more positive than the overall public — 46 percent say they back the law, 31 percent oppose it.But among the uninsured generally, there’s a more even divide, with 30 percent saying they support the law while 33 percent oppose it. The major elements of the health care law took effect with the new year. Virtually all Americans are now required to get covered or risk fines. Insurers can no longer turn away people with health problems. And the exchanges are open for business. Enrollment in the Medicaid safety-net program is also rising. That’s partly because of a program expansion accepted by about half the states and partly as a consequence of previously eligible but unenrolled people now forced to comply with the law’s individual coverage mandate. Last week, Utah’s Republican Gov. Gary Herbert said his state plans to become the 26th to accept the expansion. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 17-21 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost. AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Jan 25 AP-GfK Poll: 49 percent of Americans pro football fans, 1-3 don’t want to attend Super Bowl By DENNIS JUNIUS and RALPH D. RUSSO, Associated Press About half of Americans say they are fans of pro football, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, and nearly a third of those fans say they would not consider attending a Super Bowl _ even though few have any idea how much it costs. The NFL is still the most popular sports league in the United States, drawing the highest TV ratings by far. Its revenues climbed above $9 billion last year and next week’s Super Bowl between Seattle and Denver in New Jersey will be the most watched television program of the year. Last year, 56 percent of people polled said they were NFL fans, and that number dropped slightly to 49 percent this year. Even among those who said they were NFL fans, 31 percent said they had no interest in attending a Super Bowl, even if they could afford it. Fans have complained about high ticket prices, with very few available to the general public at face value, and most fans having to go through resellers to get into the game. Fans had a wide-range of guesses as to what a face value Super Bowl ticket costs, though 41 percent chose an amount between $251 and $500. The median estimate was $500. The median estimate from fans on what it would cost to buy a Super Bowl ticket on the secondary market rose to $1,000. Ticket prices for the Super Bowl range from $500 to $2,600, though only 1,000 tickets are available for $500. Forbes reported Saturday that the average price for a ticket to next week’s game from a ticket broker or secondary seller such as TiqIQ was $2,505, according to SeatGeek, which tracks prices. Prices change daily. Nearly half of fans (48 percent) would be willing to pay $250 or less for a Super Bowl ticket if their team was playing in the game and 8 percent said they wouldn’t be willing to pay anything to attend the game, even if their team was playing. Overall, the median price fans say they’d pay to attend the Super Bowl to see their team play is $200. One percent of fans say they’d pay $10,000 to see their team play, the highest response received in the poll. Fans were about evenly split on expansion of the playoffs. Twenty-six percent favor allowing more teams into the playoffs, an idea being considered by the NFL. Twenty-eight percent oppose it and 45 percent are neither in favor nor opposed. A broad majority of adults (83 percent) say the Washington Redskins should not change their nickname. Among football fans, 87 percent say keep the name. Since the last AP-GfK poll on the topic in April 2013, several prominent figures, notably President Barack Obama, have said it’s time for the team to change. But public opinion is still about the same. College graduates are more likely to say Washington should change its name now than they were in April. Back then, 14 percent of college graduates said it was time for a change, now 23 percent say it should change. Men are also now slightly more apt to say the team should change, 16 percent say so in the new poll, compared with 9 percent in April. Among women, opinions have held steady with 13 percent in favor of a change The Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots tied for most responses when fans were asked what is their favorite team. Each received seven percent of the responses. The Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers were each the favorite team of 6 percent of the fans polled. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 17-21 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ——— AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. ——— Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jan 23 AP-GfK Poll: Americans take stock of Obama at 5-year mark and find him nice guy, so-so president By NANCY BENAC and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Nice guy, so-so president. Taking stock of President Barack Obama at the five-year mark in his term, less than a third of Americans consider him to be an above-average chief executive. Nearly twice as many find him likable. A new Associated Press-GfK Poll finds the president’s personal image to be on the rebound after taking a hit during the government shutdown late last year, with 58 percent now sizing him up as very or somewhat likable. That’s up 9 percentage points from October, just after the shutdown. Yet as Obama prepares to stand before Americans for his annual State of the Union address on Tuesday, people are largely pessimistic about the country’s direction, down on the condition of the economy and doubtful it will bounce back anytime soon. Unemployment? Seventy percent think it will go higher or stay the same. Obama “wasn’t a total disappointment,” allows Joshua Parker, a 37-year-old small businessman in Smyrna, Tenn. “He didn’t put us into a Great Depression.” But Parker, a self-described political independent and conservative, suspects that someone who understood the economy better could have done more. “He would probably be a guy I would like to hang out with if he wasn’t president,” says Parker. “But I like a lot of people who are not qualified to be president.” Across the country, Democrat Sabrina Carag, a 58-year-old retired accountant in Pleasanton, Calif., gives the president higher marks on both performance and personality. If things aren’t great in the country, this former Republican reasons, it’s the fault of her old party and the Republicans in Congress. “They block him every step of the way,” says Carag. “I don’t think it’s fair for them to say he’s been a bad president. How can you do anything if your hands are tied?” From Huntsville, Texas, 51-year-old Wes Brummett thinks the economy will improve eventually — but it may be up to his grandchildren to do it. Obama, this Democrat says, seems like an all-right guy and a good dad, but “he needs to show more leadership.” “People are getting disheartened,” says Brummett, a self-employed computer systems administrator. On the cusp of his sixth year in office, Obama is far removed from those heady days before his first inauguration, when two-thirds of Americans predicted he’d be an outstanding or above-average president. Now, 31 percent think he’s been outstanding or above average, a quarter size him up as average, and 42 percent describe his presidency as below average or poor. The ranks of those who believe he’s been outstanding or above average have edged down 6 points since just after Obama’s re-election in November 2012, reflecting slippage in how he’s viewed by Democrats, particularly liberals. And while Obama’s likability numbers have recovered somewhat, doubts about his decisiveness and honesty persist. More than half of Americans wouldn’t describe him as decisive or honest. Fifty-two percent don’t find him particularly inspiring. The president’s overall approval rating has remained fairly stable, with 45 percent approving and 53 percent saying they don’t. He’s picked up a little support, however, on his handling of unemployment and the federal government. People still view him negatively on both issues, but the share that disapproves has dropped 7 percentage points on each issue since October, largely a reflection of greater support among independents. Congress continues to take its own outsized lumps in the polls as well. Just 14 percent of Americans approve of the way legislators are handling the job — up from a low of 5 percent after the government shutdown, but still nothing to celebrate. More than 9 in 10 Republicans say they disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job. It’s the first time that’s happened in AP-GfK polling since Republicans took control of the House after the 2010 elections. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 17-21, 2014, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,060 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all respondents. Survey respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed for this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Nancy Benac on Twitter at http://twitter.com/nbenac Follow Jennifer Agiesta at http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta Dec 26 AP-Times Square New Year’s Eve Poll: Americans hopeful for a better 2014 as they recall important, memorable moments of 2013 By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press Ready to ring in the new year, Americans look ahead with optimism, according to a new AP-Times Square New Year’s Eve poll. Their ratings of the year gone by? Less than glowing. What the public thought of 2013:GOOD YEAR OR GOOD RIDDANCE?On the whole, Americans rate their own experience in 2013 more positively than negatively, but when asked to assess the year for the United States or the world at large, things turn sour. —All told, 32 percent say 2013 was a better year for them than 2012, while 20 percent say it was worse and 46 percent say the two years were really about the same. Young people were more apt to see improvement: 40 percent of people under age 30 called 2013 a better year than 2012, compared with 25 percent of people age 65 or older. —The public splits evenly on how the year turned out for the country, 25 percent saying it was better than 2012, 25 percent saying it was worse. As with most questions about the state of affairs in the U.S. these days, there’s a sharp partisan divide. Democrats are more apt to say the U.S. turned out better in 2013 than 2012 (37 percent) than are Republicans (17 percent). —Thinking about the world at large, 30 percent say 2013 was worse than 2012, while just 20 percent say it was better. But the outlook for the new year is positive: 49 percent think their own fortunes will improve in 2014, 14 percent are anticipating the new year to be a downgrade from the old. Thirty-four percent say they don’t expect much to change. WHERE’S THE PARTY? Most Americans — 54 percent — say they’ll be ringing in the new year at home, while 1 in 5 are heading to a friend’s or family member’s house. Only 8 percent say they’ll go to a bar, restaurant or other organized event. —Younger Americans are least apt to spend the holiday at home: 39 percent of those under age 30 will celebrate at home, 33 percent at someone else’s home, 13 percent at a bar or other venue. —Regardless of their own time zone, nearly 6 in 10 say they’ll watch at least some of the celebration from New York City’s Times Square. COUNTDOWN COMPANIONS Wherever they’re spending the holiday, most Americans prefer the company of family. Asked with whom they want to be when the clock strikes midnight, 83 percent name a family member. —On a holiday often sealed with a kiss, nearly 4 in 10 say they most want to be next to their spouse, and 13 percent cite a significant other or romantic interest as a preferred companion. Parents like to be with their children, more than the children like to be with their parents. —Less conventional choices: 2 percent cite their pets, 3 percent God, Jesus or their religious congregation, and less than 1 percent said they wanted to ring it in with their co-workers. —Of course, some opt out altogether: 18 percent say they’re not planning to celebrate on New Year’s Eve, and 9 percent say there’s no one with whom they’d like to party, preferring instead their pillow, TiVo or their own thoughts. WHAT MATTERED IN NEWS The implementation of the health care law topped the list of the most important news stories of 2013, with 26 percent citing it. In an Associated Press survey of news directors and editors, 45 of 144 journalists surveyed called the health care rollout their top story. In the AP-Times Square poll, the death of Nelson Mandela occurred as the poll was underway. It rose quickly, with 8 percent naming it as the most important news of the year, matching the share citing the federal government’s budget difficulties or shutdown. The budget fight, which led to a partial shutdown of the federal government in October, was rated extremely or very important by 60 percent of Americans, and prompted rare bipartisan agreement. About two-thirds in each major party, 65 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Democrats, rated it highly important. A majority said the Boston Marathon bombings were extremely or very important, and 47 percent considered the national debate over gun laws that important. POP CULTURE: MOSTLY FORGETTABLE MOMENTS Miley Cyrus’s MTV Video Music Awards performance. The launch of “Lean In.” Apologies from Paula Deen and Lance Armstrong. Walter White’s exit and the entrance of the Netflix series “House of Cards.” What do they all have in common? More Americans say these pop culture moments were more forgettable than memorable. Just one pop culture moment was deemed more memorable than forgettable: The birth of Prince George to Britain’s Prince William and his wife, Kate. —Among men, 64 percent called the debate on work-life balance sparked by the book “Lean In” and other writings forgettable. About half of women agreed. —About 1 in 5 younger Americans said the launch of original programming through streaming services like Netflix or Hulu was a memorable moment, about doubling the share among those age 50 and up. —Residents of the West were more likely than others to consider memorable the San Francisco “Batkid” (31 percent) or the final season of the series “Breaking Bad” (19 percent). The AP-Times Square New Year’s Eve Poll was conducted by GfK Public Affairs and Corporate Communications from Dec. 5-9 and involved online interviews with 1,367 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, a probability-based Internet panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents to the survey were first selected randomly, using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta Dec 19 AP-GFK Poll: DIGITS: Public softens on marijuana legalization By DENNIS JUNIUS and JENNIFER AGIESTA With legal sales of marijuana in Colorado just two weeks away, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds public opposition to legalization declining. Just 29 percent of Americans say they oppose legalization of small amounts of marijuana for personal use, down from 55 percent in a 2010 AP-CNBC poll. And fewer say legalization would lead to increased use of more serious drugs or harm the economy. The share in favor of legalization was about the same as in 2010, while more reported feeling neutral on the question. The new survey was conducted online, while the 2010 poll was by phone. Pollsters typically see an increase in “neutral” responses in surveys conducted online compared with those conducted by phone, partly because respondents feel they can be more candid about their opinions – or lack of them – when filling out a questionnaire on their own rather than talking to another person. Respondents in both cases were offered the option of saying they “neither favor nor oppose” legal marijuana. Public opinion has been gradually softening on legalization since the height of the “Just Say No” anti-drug campaign of the 1980s. According to the General Social Survey, a survey of American public opinion conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago, opposition to legal marijuana peaked in 1990 at 84 percent, and in 2012, ahead of the referendums that made the sale of the drug legal in both Colorado and Washington state, the nation was closely divided on the question: 47 percent thought it should be legal, 53 percent not. Since the referendums in Colorado and Washington passed, polls by the Pew Research Center and Gallup have found majority support for legal marijuana. In the new AP-GfK poll, 37 percent said legalizing marijuana for personal use would actually improve the economy, a slight increase from 32 percent who felt that way in 2010. Fewer thought it would cause harm to the economy, 16 percent compared with 21 percent in 2010. The public is now less apt to feel that legal marijuana would serve as a gateway to stronger drugs. In the new poll, Americans were more likely to see it as a deterrent to stronger drugs than three years ago: 17 percent thought it would disincline people from using more serious drugs, compared with 10 percent in 2010. About a third said it would lead people to try more serious drugs, down from 39 percent in 2010. Those opposed to legalizing marijuana were more apt to see the gateway effect as an issue than to cite a negative impact on the economy: 71 percent of opponents said it would lead to more people using serious drugs, while just 41 percent thought it would make the economy worse. Those in favor of legalizing the drug see the economic benefits (69 percent say it would improve the economy) outweighing the impact on drug use (only 4 percent believe it would lead people to use more serious drugs). But legalization may not mean an influx of people heading down to their local dispensary. Just 1 in 5 Americans said they would use marijuana if the sale and possession of small amounts for personal use were legal. Eight in 10 said they wouldn’t. More apt to use it: men, city dwellers, those under age 65, liberals and Democrats. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 5-9 and involved online interviews with 1,367 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, a probability-based Internet panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents to the survey were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com EDITOR’S NOTE _ Digits is Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta’s take on the numbers that reflect our world and the survey research techniques used to find them. Dec 18 AP-GfK Poll: Obama foreign affairs ratings mostly top his domestic ones, but worries remain By TOM RAUM, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s approval ratings for handling foreign policy issues generally top his ratings for most domestic issues, including the economy and health care, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. But the poll also suggests a majority of Americans want the president to pull troops out of Afghanistan faster than he’s doing, and many are skeptical about a tentative nuclear deal with Iran. The poll found that 57 percent now say going to war in Afghanistan after the 2001 terror attacks was probably the “wrong thing to do.” And 53 percent say the pace of the planned withdrawal is too slow, 34 percent said the pace was just about right and 10 percent said it was too fast. All combat troops are scheduled to leave by the end of 2014. Meanwhile, six in 10 Americans approve of the preliminary deal between Iran and six global powers to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But that support is soft and many doubt it will lead to concrete results. Even though he garners more disapproval than approval on the handling of Afghanistan and Iran, Obama generally gets better ratings on foreign policy than on domestic issues. Nearly half (49 percent) approve of his handling of U.S. relations with other countries while 50 percent disapprove. In contrast, just 40 percent approve of his handling of the economy, while 59 percent disapprove. And on health care, the approval rating stands at 39 percent, with 61 percent disapproving. His overall job approval is at 42 percent, with 58 disapproving. The slightly higher ratings on foreign policy generally make sense, suggested Philip Salathe, 70, of Indianapolis, who participated in the poll. Salathe said Obama in 2008 ran against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who during the campaign joked about dropping bombs on Iran. “I figure we could fix the economy if it gets ruined and we can repeal any bad laws that get passed,” Salathe said, but a military confrontation with Iran or other foreign policy crisis could have more disastrous consequences. Salathe approves of the job Obama is doing overall but still thinks things are headed in the wrong direction. “We’re not doing anything about the major problems facing humanity. Basically, we have a number of disparate goals that are at odds with each other,” such as protecting the environment while promoting growth and urban development. He said Obama is the first Democrat he’s voted for as president. He said he tends to favor Republicans. Just 16 percent of those polled said they expected the situation in Afghanistan to “get better” over the next year; 32 percent said they expected it to “get worse” while about half said they expected the situation to “stay about the same.” Jennifer Reese, 28, of Burnsville, Minn., considers herself a Democrat and says she voted for Obama. But she questions whether he’s the cause for the economy getting better. “I think the economy is getting better, but I don’t think it’s necessarily because of what Obama’s doing,” she said. “That’s the way things work. When things go down so far, then they’re going to go back up.” She said she also believes both parties could do an equally good job protecting the country and that the pace of allied troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is “about right.” She favors a continued presence of allied troops in the country to train and assist Afghan troops. “My family was in the military. My father was over there for a while and he says they’re doing good things.” As for negotiations with Iran on curbing its nuclear program, Reese says she is pleased Iran is at the bargaining table. “Let’s negotiate this, see what we can do,” she said. The poll showed Americans broadly approve of a tentative deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Fifty-nine percent approved, 38 percent disapproved. But that support was tentative, with more than 4 in 10 (44 percent) also saying it’s unlikely the agreement will keep Iran from seeking to build its own nuclear weapon. Just 11 percent think that outcome is extremely or very likely. Mark Dabney, 54, of Cartersville, Ga., who describes himself as a political independent who supports the tea party movement, disapproves of Obama’s performance on both domestic and foreign policy fronts. As for Iraq and Afghanistan, “I just believe that we shouldn’t go meddling in other countries’ internal affairs,” he said. The AP-GfK poll was conducted Dec. 5-9 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. For results based on all 1,367 adults, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. KnowledgePanel is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later, completed this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have Internet access were provided with access at no cost. ___ Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: AP-GfK poll: http://www.ap.gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Tom Raum on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/tomraum Dec 16 AP-GfK Poll: Most Americans see stock market either flat or lower by end of 2014 By STEVE ROTHWELL, AP Markets Writer NEW YORK (AP) — Americans aren’t expecting another bang-up year for the stock market, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Of the people polled, 40 percent think the market will stabilize where it is now by the end of 2014, with 39 percent predicting that it will drop, but not crash. Only 14 percent believe the market will rise and 5 percent think it will crash. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has surged 24.5 percent to 1,775 in 2013, putting it on track for its best year in a decade. The rally has been fueled by higher corporate earnings, a slow but steady recovery in the U.S. economy and stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Perhaps because of the slow recovery, only about half of the general public noted the market’s strong performance, according to the poll. Investors were more aware of the booming market, however, as 73 percent say it improved. William Leyser, 74, a retired machinist from Las Vegas, thinks the stock market may fall by as much as 10 percent next year. He has taken some of his money out of stocks this year and put it into bonds. “I’m concerned there is going to be a big correction here,” says Leyser, who invests in mutual funds. “When it gets high, it always goes down a little bit.” The poll also shows that individuals are less optimistic about the outlook for the stock market than many investment professionals. While few market strategists expect stocks to keep climbing at the same pace, many see it extending its gains at a slower rate. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the S&P 500 index will end next year at 2,000, about 13 percent higher than its current level. Wells Fargo Advisors forecasts the index will climb as high as 1,900, a gain of about 7 percent. Stocks have rallied since bottoming out after the financial crisis and the start of the Great Recession, lifting the S&P 500 index 162 percent from its low in March 2009. Despite those steady returns, the poll suggests that Americans are still nervous about buying and holding stocks. Of those polled, 71 percent consider investing in the stock market to be “generally risky,” compared with 27 percent who think of the market as “generally safe.” The perception of stocks as a risky investment has lessened since the spring, when 75 percent of respondents said it was “generally risky” and 18 percent said it was “generally safe.” Still, with interest rates on savings accounts low, some individual investors recognize the need to take on more risk. “If you want to see some growth in your portfolio you have to go into equities,” says Mark Geduldig-Yatrofsky, 64, a former IT worker who lives in Portsmouth, Va. Overall, 20 percent of investors say they plan to invest more heavily in the market in the coming year, 22 percent will pull back, and 57 percent plan to invest at about the same level as in 2013. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 5-9, 2013, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. For results based on all 1,367 adults, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. KnowledgePanel is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later, completed this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have Internet access were provided with access at no cost to them. Dec 15 AP-GfK poll: Health law seen as eroding coverage By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and JENNIFER AGIESTA Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans who already have health insurance are blaming President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul for their rising premiums and deductibles, and overall 3 in 4 say the rollout of coverage for the uninsured has gone poorly. An Associated Press-GfK poll finds that health care remains politically charged going into next year’s congressional elections. Keeping the refurbished HealthCare.gov website running smoothly is just one of Obama’s challenges, maybe not the biggest. The poll found a striking level of unease about the law among people who have health insurance and aren’t looking for government help. Those are the 85 percent of Americans who the White House says don’t have to be worried about the president’s historic push to expand coverage for the uninsured. In the survey, nearly half of those with job-based or other private coverage say their policies will be changing next year — mostly for the worse. Nearly 4 in 5 (77 percent) blame the changes on the Affordable Care Act, even though the trend toward leaner coverage predates the law’s passage. Sixty-nine percent say their premiums will be going up, while 59 percent say annual deductibles or copayments are increasing. Only 21 percent of those with private coverage said their plan is expanding to cover more types of medical care, though coverage of preventive care at no charge to the patient has been required by the law for the past couple of years. Fourteen percent said coverage for spouses is being restricted or eliminated, and 11 percent said their plan is being discontinued. “Rightly or wrongly, people with private insurance looking at next year are really worried about what is going to happen,” said Robert Blendon, a professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, who tracks public opinion on health care issues. “The website is not the whole story.” Employers trying to control their health insurance bills have been shifting costs to workers for years, but now those changes are blamed increasingly on “Obamacare” instead of the economy or insurance companies. Political leanings seemed to affect perceptions of eroding coverage, with larger majorities of Republicans and independents saying their coverage will be affected. The White House had hoped that the Oct. 1 launch of open enrollment season for the uninsured would become a teaching moment, a showcase of the president’s philosophy that government can help smooth out the rough edges of life in the modern economy for working people. Instead the dysfunctional website became a parable for Republicans and others skeptical of government. At the same time, a cresting wave of cancellation notices hit millions who buy their policy directly from an insurer. That undercut one of Obama’s central promises — that you can keep the coverage you have if you like it. The White House never clearly communicated the many caveats to that promise. Disapproval of Obama’s handling of health care topped 60 percent in the poll. With the website working better and enrollments picking up, Democrats are hoping negative impressions will quickly fade in the rearview mirror. The poll found that Democrats still have an edge over Republicans, by 32 percent to 22 percent, when it comes to whom the public trusts to handle health care. But other potential bumps are just ahead for Obama’s law. It’s unclear whether everyone who wants and needs coverage by Jan. 1 will be able to get it through the new online insurance markets. Some people who have to switch plans because their policies were cancelled may find that their new insurance covers different drugs, or that they have to look for other doctors. In the poll, taken just after the revamped federal website was unveiled, 11 percent of Americans said they or someone in their household had tried to sign up for health insurance in the new marketplaces. Sixty-two percent of those said they or the person in their household ran into problems. About one-fourth of all who tried managed to enroll. Half said they were not able to buy insurance, and the remaining quarter said they weren’t sure. Phyllis Dessel, 63, of Reading, Pa., believes she is finally enrolled after 50 attempts online. The retired social worker, a political independent, currently has her own private insurance. When Dessel described her experience, she jokingly asked, “Do you mind if I cry?” Thanks to tax credits available under the law, she was able to save about $100 a month on her coverage. But she had to switch carriers because a plan with her current insurer cost more than she was willing to pay. She hasn’t gotten an invoice yet from her new insurance company. The premiums were “not at all” what she expected, said Dessel. “They were much, much higher.” A supporter of Obama’s overhaul, she believes changes are needed to make the coverage more affordable. “I think with a lot of amendments or updates, it could be very, very helpful and beneficial,” said Dessel. “I know a lot of people who don’t have insurance. My hairdresser, my plumber don’t have insurance and they’re not going to get it if it’s not affordable.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 5-9 and involved online interviews with 1,367 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, a probability-based Internet panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents to the survey were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report. Dec 11 AP-GfK Poll: Frequent fliers hate idea of in-flight calls; government regulators prepare to debate issue By Scott Mayerowitz, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — As federal regulators consider removing a decades-old prohibition on making phone calls on planes, a majority of Americans who fly oppose such a change, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds. The Federal Communications Commission will officially start the debate Thursday, holding the first of several meetings to review the agency’s 22-year-old ban. New FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler has called the current rules “outdated and restrictive.” Technology has advanced to the point where in-flight calls — relayed first through a special system on planes — won’t overload cell towers on the ground. As a result, Wheeler has said, there’s no reason the government should prohibit in-flight calls. The FCC proposal comes weeks after the Federal Aviation Administration lifted its ban on using personal electronic devices such as iPads and Kindles below 10,000 feet, saying they don’t interfere with cockpit instruments. Just because technology has advanced, it doesn’t mean that etiquette has. Many fliers fear their fellow passengers will subject them to long-winded conversations impossible to avoid at 35,000 feet. The Associated Press-GfK poll released Wednesday finds that 48 percent of Americans oppose allowing cellphones to be used for voice calls while flying; just 19 percent support it. Another 30 percent are neutral. Among those who fly, opposition is stronger. Looking just at Americans who have taken more than one flight in the past year, 59 percent are against allowing calls on planes. That number grows to 78 percent among those who’ve taken four or more flights. Interestingly, you can count Wheeler in the opposition. “We understand that many passengers would prefer that voice calls not be made on airplanes. I feel that way myself,” he said in a Nov. 22 statement. The chairman went on to say that his intention is for the airlines — not the government — to make the decision whether or not to allow calls. Delta Air Lines is the only airline to explicitly state that it won’t allow voice calls. Delta says years of feedback from customers show “the overwhelming sentiment” is to keep the ban in place. American Airlines, United Airlines and JetBlue Airways all plan to study the issue and listen to feedback from passengers and crew. The nation’s largest flight attendant union opposes a change, saying cellphone use could lead to fights between passengers. Most Middle East airlines and a few in Asia and Europe already allow voice calls on planes. Before the FCC commissioners can even meet Thursday afternoon, they must go to Capitol Hill to answer questions about the change. House Communications and Technology Subcommittee Chairman Greg Walden (R-OR) has called all five commissioners to a 10 a.m. hearing on the matter. Walden said Wednesday that “allowing cellphones on planes sounds like the premise of a new reality show: ‘Cage Fighting at 30,000 Feet.’” Separately, House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Bill Shuster (R-PA) plans to introduce a bill prohibiting such calls. “If passengers are going to be forced to listen to the gossip in the aisle seat, it’s going to make for a very long flight,” Shuster said in a statement. In contrast to the negative sentiment about phone calls, many take a favorable view of the lifting of the ban on personal electronic devices. The poll shows that 43 percent of Americans support the FAA’s move, while 19 percent oppose it. Another 37 percent are neutral. Among frequent fliers, support rises to 69 percent. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 5-9, 2013 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. For results based on all 1,367 adults, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It is 5.4 points for results among 560 people who have taken at least one flight in the last year. KnowledgePanel is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later completed this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have Internet access were provided with access at no cost to them. __ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com __ Scott Mayerowitz can be reached at http://twitter.com/GlobeTrotScott Follow SCOTT MAYEROWITZ on Twitter @GlobeTrotScott Dec 11 Year after Newtown, gun control groups keep hope By STEVE PEOPLES NEWTOWN, Conn. (AP) — Having already lost her 6-year-old son, Nicole Hockley insists she won’t lose the fight to reduce gun violence — no matter how long it takes. She is among a group of “accidental activist” parents brought together one year ago by almost unthinkable grief after the Newtown school massacre. The shootings were so horrific that many predicted they would force Congress to approve long-stalled legislation to tighten the nation’s gun laws. They did not. A divided Congress denied President Barack Obama’s calls for changes. The national gun lobby, led by the National Rifle Association, is arguably stronger than ever. And surveys suggest that support for new gun laws is slipping as the Newtown memory fades. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that that 52 percent of Americans favor stricter gun laws, while 31 percent want them left as they are and 15 percent say they should be loosened. But the strength of the support for tighter controls has dropped since January, when 58 percent said gun laws should be tightened and just 5 percent felt they were too strong. After a year of personal suffering and political frustration, Hockley and other Newtown parents are fighting to stay optimistic as their effort builds a national operation backed by an alliance of well-funded organizations working to pressure Congress ahead of next fall’s elections. The groups are sending dozens of paid staff into key states, enlisting thousands of volunteer activists and preparing to spend tens of millions of dollars against politicians who stand in the way of their goals. It may well take time, they say, to counter the influence of the NRA on Capitol Hill. “I know it’s not a matter of if it happens. It’s a matter of when. This absolutely keeps me going,” says Hockley, who joined a handful of Newtown parents in a private White House meeting with Vice President Joe Biden this week. “No matter how much tragedy affects you, you have to find a way forward. You have to invest in life.” Hockley’s son Dylan was among 26 people shot to death — including 20 first graders — last Dec. 14 inside Sandy Hook Elementary. The shooter, 20-year-old Adam Lanza used a military-style assault rifle in the Friday-morning attack that ended when he killed himself. The shootings profoundly changed this small Connecticut community and thrust gun violence back into the national debate. Led by Obama, gun control advocates called for background checks for all gun purchasers and a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines. Hockley and other Newtown parents hastened into action, privately lobbying members of Congress for changes. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s organization, Mayors Against Illegal Guns, has spent roughly $15 million this year on advertising to influence the debate. And former Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot in the head while meeting with constituents in 2011, launched a national tour calling for background checks. Yet Congress has enacted no new gun curbs since the Newtown shooting. The inaction in Washington underscores the ongoing potency of the NRA and other gun rights groups, opposition from most Republicans and the reluctance of many Democrats from GOP-leaning states to anger voters by further restricting firearms. Nearly eight months since the Senate rejected expanded background checks for gun buyers — the year’s foremost legislative effort on the issue — Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., hasn’t found the five votes he would need to revive the measure. He has said he won’t revisit the bill until he has the 60 votes he would need to prevail. Says Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy: “I was repulsed by the inability of the Congress of the United States to deal with reality.” But there is little sign of resentment or resignation from the most prominent gun control groups. They’re re-doubling their efforts before next fall’s elections. The head of Bloomberg’s organization says that the billionaire New York mayor is installing paid staff in more than a dozen states expected to take up gun control legislation next year to complement a robust Washington lobbying operation and television ads. “In 2012, the mayor spent about $10 million or so dipping his toe in the water. I guess we’ll find out what the whole foot looks like in 2014,” said Mark Glaze, Mayors Against Illegal Guns’ executive director. Giffords’ also promises to be a major player, despite health limitations. Her group, Americans for Responsible Solutions, has created a nonprofit and political action committee on pace to raise more than $20 million before the midterms, according to group officials. “You can’t have 20 first-graders murdered in their classroom, and have a country that’s done nothing about it and just think the issue’s going away,” says Giffords’ husband, former astronaut Mark Kelly. “We’re going to keep the press on.” Hockley belongs to a group called Sandy Hook Promise, which recently started a campaign to recruit 500,000 parents nationwide to join its effort before this week’s anniversary. They’re enlisting the help of celebrities such as including Sofia Vergara, Ed O’Neill and Alyssa Milano. Yet there’s division even among like-minded groups over whether to push for background checks or a less-contentious mental health bill. Sandy Hook Promise is now focusing more on mental health. Bloomberg is pushing aggressively for background checks. And Giffords’ group wants both, although Kelly says he has low expectations for background checks in the short term. Like other Newtown parents, Mark Barden is undeterred. “We’re trying to change the culture, and you don’t do that in a couple of months or a couple of years even,” says Barden, who lost his 7-year-old son Daniel in last year’s shooting. “All my eggs are in this basket from now on. I have an obligation to my little Daniel.” ___ Associated Press writers Alan Fram in Washington, Susan Haigh in Connecticut and Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. Dec 11 AP-GfK Poll: Discontent with Congress, Obama high; most want their House member ousted By CHARLES BABINGTON and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Heading into a congressional election year, Americans hold Congress in strikingly low regard, and nearly two-thirds say they would like to see their House member replaced, a new poll finds. Even though Americans are feeling somewhat better about the economy — and their personal finances — elected officials in Washington aren’t benefiting from the improved mood, the Associated Press-GfK poll found. President Barack Obama’s approval rating was negative: 58 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while 42 percent approve. Obama isn’t running for office again, however, whereas all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate’s seats are on the ballot next November. And nearly 9 in 10 adults disapprove of the way lawmakers are handling their jobs. The low opinions of Congress don’t necessarily signal major power shifts next year in the Republican-controlled House and Democratic-controlled Senate. House Democrats need to gain at least 17 net seats to claim the majority. But many House districts are so solidly liberal or conservative that incumbents can withstand notable drops in popularity and keep their seats. Republicans hope to gain six Senate seats overall to retake control of that chamber for the last two years of Obama’s presidency. On one major issue, most Americans continue to favor providing a path to legal status for millions of immigrants living here illegally. Fifty-five percent support it, and 43 percent oppose. The Senate passed a major immigration bill that would provide a legalization path. But the House has sidelined the issue so far. Despite the relatively low opinions of Congress and Obama, the national mood is not quite as bleak as it was in October, when partisan stalemate led to a 16-day partial government shutdown and fears of a possible default. More Americans now say things are heading in the right direction and the economy is improving, the AP-GfK poll found. But those figures are still fairly anemic, below 40 percent. Congressional approval stands at 13 percent, with 86 percent of adults disapproving. That sentiment holds across party lines: 86 percent of Democrats, 88 percent of Republicans and 84 percent of independents disapprove. Democrats have a slim edge as the party Americans would prefer to control Congress, 39 percent to 33 percent. But a sizable 27 percent say it doesn’t matter who’s in charge. In a sign of public discontent, 62 percent of registered voters say they’d like someone new to win their congressional district next year, while 37 percent support their incumbent’s re-election. That’s a worrisome trend for incumbents’ campaigns. Four years ago, polls by NBC News/Wall Street Journal and Marist found fewer than half of Americans wanting their own representative ousted. When elected officials are dropped from the equation, the public mood brightens a bit, the new poll found. The share of adults saying things in this country are heading in the right direction has climbed 12 percentage points since the government shutdown, to 34 percent. Still, almost twice as many, 66 percent, say things are heading the wrong way. Independents, who can be crucial in general elections when persuaded to vote, share the modestly growing optimism. Whereas 82 percent of independents said the country was headed in the wrong direction in October, the number now is 69 percent. Ratings of the economy have also improved since October. Still, 68 percent of adults say the U.S. economy is in bad shape, down slightly from 73 percent in October. More adults now say they expect improvement in their household’s financial standing in the coming year: 30 percent, compared with 24 percent in October. More also say it’s a good time to make major purchases, although the number is an unimpressive 19 percent. Megan Barnes of Columbia, Md., is among those who see an uptick in their own finances but give scant credit to politicians. “I think the economy seems to be fairly stable, and for my family in the future, it’s going to be OK,” said Barnes, 32, a stay-at-home mom married to a software engineer. She said she strongly disapproves of Congress and leans toward disapproval of Obama. In Congress, Barnes said, “I’d like to see people put their jobs on the line to get things done, and not worry about the next election.” A moderate Republican, Barnes said she would like to see someone replace her congressman, Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings. As for Obama, she said it’s troubling that he seemed to know little about the National Security Agency’s spying on international allies or the serious problems in the rollout of his sweeping health care law. “He also doesn’t seem to really work with the Congress a lot, even with his own party, to build consensus and get things done,” Barnes said. Americans have grown skeptical of some of the personal attributes the president relied on to win re-election in 2012. The new poll finds just 41 percent think he’s decisive, 44 percent see him as strong and 45 percent call him inspiring. On honesty, he’s lost ground since October. Now, 56 percent say the word “honest” does not describe Obama well. Nearly half of American adults have an unfavorable impression of Obama, and 46 percent have a favorable impression. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 5-9 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. It involved online interviews with 1,367 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents. Using probability sampling methods, KnowledgePanel is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents to the survey were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and were later interviewed for this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . ___ Associated Press News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Nov 30 In God we trust, maybe, but not each other By CONNIE CASS WASHINGTON (AP) — You can take our word for it. Americans don’t trust each other anymore. We’re not talking about the loss of faith in big institutions such as the government, the church or Wall Street, which fluctuates with events. For four decades, a gut-level ingredient of democracy — trust in the other fellow — has been quietly draining away. These days, only one-third of Americans say most people can be trusted. Half felt that way in 1972, when the General Social Survey first asked the question. Forty years later, a record high of nearly two-thirds say “you can’t be too careful” in dealing with people. An AP-GfK poll conducted last month found that Americans are suspicious of each other in everyday encounters. Less than one-third expressed a lot of trust in clerks who swipe their credit cards, drivers on the road, or people they meet when traveling. “I’m leery of everybody,” said Bart Murawski, 27, of Albany, N.Y. “Caution is always a factor.” Does it matter that Americans are suspicious of one another? Yes, say worried political and social scientists. What’s known as “social trust” brings good things. A society where it’s easier to compromise or make a deal. Where people are willing to work with those who are different from them for the common good. Where trust appears to promote economic growth. Distrust, on the other hand, seems to encourage corruption. At the least, it diverts energy to counting change, drawing up 100-page legal contracts and building gated communities. Even the rancor and gridlock in politics might stem from the effects of an increasingly distrustful citizenry, said April K. Clark, a Purdue University political scientist and public opinion researcher. “It’s like the rules of the game,” Clark said. “When trust is low, the way we react and behave with each other becomes less civil.” There’s no easy fix. In fact, some studies suggest it’s too late for most Americans alive today to become more trusting. That research says the basis for a person’s lifetime trust levels is set by his or her mid-twenties and unlikely to change, other than in some unifying crucible such as a world war. People do get a little more trusting as they age. But beginning with the baby boomers, each generation has started off adulthood less trusting than those who came before them. The best hope for creating a more trusting nation may be figuring out how to inspire today’s youth, perhaps united by their high-tech gadgets, to trust the way previous generations did in simpler times. There are still trusters around to set an example. Pennsylvania farmer Dennis Hess is one. He runs an unattended farm stand on the honor system. Customers pick out their produce, tally their bills and drop the money into a slot, making change from an unlocked cashbox. Both regulars and tourists en route to nearby Lititz, Pa., stop for asparagus in spring, corn in summer and, as the weather turns cold, long-neck pumpkins for Thanksgiving pies. “When people from New York or New Jersey come up,” said Hess, 60, “they are amazed that this kind of thing is done anymore.” Hess has updated the old ways with technology. He added a video camera a few years back, to help catch people who drive off without paying or raid the cashbox. But he says there isn’t enough theft to undermine his trust in human nature. “I’ll say 99 and a half percent of the people are honest,” said Hess, who’s operated the produce stand for two decades. There’s no single explanation for Americans’ loss of trust. The best-known analysis comes from “Bowling Alone” author Robert Putnam’s nearly two decades of studying the United States’ declining “social capital,” including trust. Putnam says Americans have abandoned their bowling leagues and Elks lodges to stay home and watch TV. Less socializing and fewer community meetings make people less trustful than the “long civic generation” that came of age during the Depression and World War II. University of Maryland Professor Eric Uslaner, who studies politics and trust, puts the blame elsewhere: economic inequality. Trust has declined as the gap between the nation’s rich and poor gapes ever wider, Uslaner says, and more and more Americans feel shut out. They’ve lost their sense of a shared fate. Tellingly, trust rises with wealth. “People who believe the world is a good place and it’s going to get better and you can help make it better, they will be trusting,” Uslaner said. “If you believe it’s dark and driven by outside forces you can’t control, you will be a mistruster.” African-Americans consistently have expressed far less faith in “most people” than the white majority does. Racism, discrimination and a high rate of poverty destroy trust. Nearly 8 in 10 African-Americans, in the 2012 survey conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago with principal funding from the National Science Foundation, felt that “you can’t be too careful.” That figure has held remarkably steady across the 25 GSS surveys since 1972. The decline in the nation’s overall trust quotient was driven by changing attitudes among whites. It’s possible that people today are indeed less deserving of trust than Americans in the past, perhaps because of a decline in moral values. “I think people are acting more on their greed,” said Murawski, a computer specialist who says he has witnessed scams and rip-offs. “Everybody wants a comfortable lifestyle, but what are you going to do for it? Where do you draw the line?” Ethical behavior such as lying and cheating are difficult to document over the decades. It’s worth noting that the early, most trusting years of the GSS poll coincided with Watergate and the Vietnam War. Trust dropped off in the more stable 1980s. Crime rates fell in the 1990s and 2000s, and still Americans grew less trusting. Many social scientists blame 24-hour news coverage of distant violence for skewing people’s perceptions of crime. Can anything bring trust back? Uslaner and Clark don’t see much hope anytime soon. Thomas Sander, executive director of the Saguaro Seminar launched by Putnam, believes the trust deficit is “eminently fixable” if Americans strive to rebuild community and civic life, perhaps by harnessing technology. After all, the Internet can widen the circle of acquaintances who might help you find a job. Email makes it easier for clubs to plan face-to-face meetings. Googling someone turns up information that used to come via the community grapevine. But hackers and viruses and hateful posts eat away at trust. And sitting home watching YouTube means less time out meeting others. “A lot of it depends on whether we can find ways to get people using technology to connect and be more civically involved,” Sander said. “The fate of Americans’ trust,” he said, “is in our own hands.” ___ Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com General Social Survey: http://www3.norc.org/GSS+Website ___ Follow Connie Cass on Twitter at https://twitter.com/ConnieCass Nov 07 DIGITS: AP-GfK poll finds attention to politics grows despite disapproval By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press If there’s one word that describes how Americans feel about politics these days, it’s “negative.” Majorities disapprove of Congress and the president and say the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Few trust their political leaders to make the right decisions, and some polls suggest voters would like to see the whole lot turned out next November. Yet an Associated Press-GfK poll in October found more people tuning in to politics — warts and all — than tuning out. It’s not a major election year, so day-to-day interest in following news about politics and elections was lower than at the height of last year’s presidential campaign. But just 11 percent said they’re less interested in politics today than four years ago, while 30 percent said they’re more interested than in 2009, before the birth of the tea party or the passage of the health insurance overhaul, when people were about twice as likely as they are now to say the country was heading in the right direction. Although those who are increasingly attentive to politics now are more likely to identify with a political party than as political independents, they seem to buck a notable trend in Washington: Rather than reflecting the increasing polarization seen in Congress, they tend to mirror the positions of the overall American public. The poll suggests those paying more attention to politics these days hold similar views to Americans generally on a range of prominent issues: the health overhaul law, gun laws, illegal immigration, abortion, same-sex marriage and the seriousness of climate change. Tuesday’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia also suggested a win for the ideological middle. According to exit polls conducted for The Associated Press, Virginia voters broadly rejected Republican Ken Cuccinelli as “too conservative,” and GOP Gov. Chris Christie trampled Democratic nominee Barbara Buono despite 57 percent of his state’s voters holding a negative impression of his party. Those tuning out are less likely to see big differences between what the Democrats and Republicans stand for, a position that may reflect judgments about politicians’ motivations rather than their policies. They frequently cite negativity in politics rather than specific positions as a reason for their distaste. One poll respondent said, “The Republicans are acting like babies. The Democrats are acting like babies. It’s unsettling and disgusting.” Another, “I get tired of hearing the bickering, and I don’t trust anything any of the politicians say.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 3-7, 2013, and involved online interviews with 1,227 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, a probability-based Internet panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Panelists were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed for this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access it at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta EDITOR’S NOTE _ Digits is Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta’s take on the numbers that reflect our world and the survey research techniques used to find them. Oct 24 AP-GFK Poll: Obama calls on Congress to pass immigration legislation by the end of the year By Jim Kuhnhenn and Donna Cassata WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama made a plea for Republican cooperation on immigration Thursday, seeking common ground by year’s end in the aftermath of the divisive partial government shutdown. Yet prospects for success this year remain a long shot even as a handful of House GOP lawmakers push for more limited measures. Obama’s renewed focus on immigration comes amid mounting criticism of the White House over computer problems that have plagued insurance enrollment under the 3-year-old health care law. It also comes nearly four months since a bipartisan majority in the Senate passed a comprehensive immigration bill that would tighten border security and provide a path to citizenship for the 11 million immigrants living here illegally. “Rather than create problems, let’s prove to the American people that Washington can actually solve some problems,” Obama said during an event devoted to immigration at the White House. The Senate measure has stalled in the House, where most Republicans reject a comprehensive approach and many question offering citizenship to people who broke U.S. immigration laws to be in this country. Still, White House officials say they believe that the partial government shutdown, rather than poisoning the political atmosphere, may have created an opportunity for collaboration with Republicans seeking to repair their image, which polls show took a hit during the prolonged fight over financing the government and extending the nation’s borrowing limit. Moreover, Obama made a point of underscoring support for an immigration bill from the members of the business community, traditional Republican allies who criticized GOP tactics that led to the partial shutdown and to brinkmanship over a potentially economy-jarring default on U.S. debt. The White House took notice when Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, indicated on Wednesday that he was hopeful that immigration legislation could be done before year’s end. But Republican strategists also say the most opportune time to act might not come until after next year’s 2014 primary elections, when lawmakers will be freer to vote without fear of having to run against a more conservative challenger. And while Obama called for the House to pass a large bill that could then be reconciled with the Senate version, House Republicans want to approach any changes in piecemeal fashion, a process that at best would push any significant progress into next year. Boehner spokesman Brendan Buck said Thursday that the House “will not consider any massive, Obamacare-style legislation that no one understands.” He said the House is committed to a deliberate, “step-by-step approach.” “Obviously, there is no appetite for one big bill,” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart told a group of reporters Wednesday night. The Florida Republican, who had been a member of the unsuccessful bipartisan “gang of eight,” is working with other Republicans on a set of bills that would allow undocumented immigrants to “get right with the law.” Diaz-Balart avoided using the word “legalization” because it has become so politically fraught. Arguments that the issue is a political drag on the GOP that will undermine the party’s chances in the 2016 presidential election have failed to sway rank-and-file Republicans, who are responding to the demands of base GOP voters in their districts rather than the nation’s changing demographics. In an Associated Press-GfK poll conducted in early October, 52 percent said they favored providing a legal way for illegal immigrants already in the United States to become citizens, while 44 percent said they opposed such a plan. Most Democrats in the survey backed the idea (70 percent favored it, 29 percent opposed), while independents were divided, 45 percent in favor and 41 percent opposed. Republicans broke against it, with 34 percent in favor and 65 percent opposed. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., is working on his own measure to provide temporary status for some immigrants in the country illegally. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., and Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., are focused on legislation to deal with immigrants brought to the country illegally as children. The Judiciary Committee moved forward with individual, single-issue immigration bills before the August recess, but the full House has taken no action on the measures. Responding to Obama, Goodlatte rejected the comprehensive Senate approach and insisting on piecemeal measures that address enforcement, border security and the appropriate legal status for those immigrants here illegally. “We don’t need another massive, Obamacare-like bill that is full of surprises and dysfunction after it becomes law,” he said in a statement, echoing Boehner’s office. Diaz-Balart also underscored another challenge — the GOP insistence that any measure brought to the House floor have the support of a majority of Republicans. With 231 Republicans in the House now, that means at least 115 GOP members. “We have to get the majority of the majority to move forward,” Diaz-Balart said. “It’s also mathematically that we’re going to need Democratic votes.” ___ Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP White House Correspondent Julie Pace contributed to this report. ___ Follow Jim Kuhnhenn at http://twitter.com/jkuhnhenn and Donna Cassata at https://twitter.com/DonnaCassataAP Oct 11 AP-GfK Poll: Americans find little to like about Obama or either party heading into 2014 midterm elections By NEDRA PICKLER and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are finding little they like about President Barack Obama or either political party, according to a new poll that suggests the possibility of a “throw the bums out” mentality in next year’s midterm elections. The AP-GfK poll finds few people approve of the way the president is handling most major issues and most people say he’s not decisive, strong, honest, reasonable or inspiring. In the midst of the government shutdown and Washington gridlock, the president is faring much better than his party, with large majorities of those surveyed finding little positive to say about Democrats. The negatives are even higher for the Republicans across the board, with 4 out of 5 people describing the GOP as unlikeable and dishonest and not compassionate, refreshing, inspiring or innovative. Negativity historically hurts the party in power — particularly when it occurs in the second term of a presidency — but this round seems to be hitting everyone. More people now say they see bigger differences between the two parties than before Obama was elected, yet few like what either side is offering. A big unknown: possible fallout from the unresolved budget battle in Washington. The numbers offer warning signs for every incumbent lawmaker, and if these angry sentiments stretch into next year, the 2014 elections could feel much like the 2006 and 2010 midterms when being affiliated with Washington was considered toxic by many voters. In 2006, voters booted Republicans from power in the House and Senate, and in 2010, they fired Democrats who had been controlling the House. “There needs to be a major change,” said Pam Morrison, 56, of Lincoln, Neb., among those who were surveyed. “I’m anxious for the next election to see what kind of new blood we can get.” Morrison describes herself as a conservative Republican and said she is very concerned about how her adult children are going to afford insurance under Obama’s health care law. She places most of the blame for the shutdown on the president, but she also disapproves of the job Congress is doing. “I don’t think they’re working together,” Morrison said. “Congress needs to take a look at their salaries, they need to take a cut to their salaries and they need to feel some of the pain the American people are feeling,” said Morrison, who is married to a government worker who she said has been deemed essential and is still on the job. People across the political spectrum voiced disappointment. Suzanne Orme, a 74-year-old retiree and self-described liberal who lives in California’s Silicon Valley, says the shutdown is more the Republican Party’s fault. “The Republicans seem to be a bunch of morons who aren’t going to give in for anything. I just don’t get it with them. They are just crazy,” she said. But she also said she strongly disapproves of the way Obama is handling his job, and doesn’t find him likable, decisive, strong, honest, compassionate, refreshing, ethical, inspiring or reasonable. The only positive attribute she gave him was innovative. “It sounds like he’s kind of weak. He says one thing and does another,” Orme said after taking the survey. For example, she said Obama hasn’t made good on his promise to close the U.S. detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and changed his position on whether people should be penalized for failing to get health insurance. “I voted for him, and he’s turned out to be a big disappointment,” she said. “I mean, what’s the alternative?” Orme said it just seems to her that Washington is run by lobbyists and consumed by financial greed. A bad sign for Democrats is that Obama has bled support among independents — 60 percent disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job, while only 16 percent approve. As he began his second term in January, independents tilted positive, 48 percent approved and 39 percent disapproved. Neither party can win without the support of independents, with only about a third of the poll’s respondents identifying themselves as Democrats and about a quarter as Republicans. Obama has held onto support from Carol Cox, a 59-year-old independent from Hartville, Ohio, who says she feels the president helps people in need. She is happy to see his health care law that offers coverage to the uninsured and to people with pre-existing conditions, although she thinks the rollout could have been better. “I think he’s doing an OK job,” she said of the president. But she is not happy with either party in Congress. She said the shutdown is affecting her family’s investments and she’s concerned about the future of Social Security. “I’m really angry and frustrated. I can’t believe how mad I am about this.” As for next year’s congressional election, she said, “I would love to see just a total turnover.” The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 3-7, 2013, using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. It involved online interviews with 1,227 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. The survey was designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents to the survey were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. Those who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to get online at no cost. ___ News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Follow Nedra Pickler on Twitter at https://twitter.com/nedrapickler and Jennifer Agiesta at http://twitter.com/JennAgiesta ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 10 AP-GfK Poll: Health exchange rollout gets poor reviews By NANCY BENAC and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — The debut of the government’s health insurance marketplaces drew a huge audience — and underwhelming reviews. Just 7 percent of Americans say the rollout of the health exchanges has gone extremely well or very well, according to an AP-GfK poll. The reaction was somewhat better among supporters of the new health care law, but still middling: 19 percent said the rollout went extremely well or very well. Among the uninsured — a key audience for the health exchanges — 42 percent said they didn’t know enough to judge how well the rollout had gone, suggesting an ongoing lack of awareness about the program in its early days. Despite the bumpy rollout, plenty of Americans are giving the system a try. Seven percent of Americans reported that somebody in their household has tried to sign up for insurance through the health care exchanges, according to the poll. While that’s a small percentage, it could represent more than 20 million people. Three-fourths of those who tried to sign up reported problems, though, and that’s reflected in the poor reviews. George Spinner, 60, a retired government worker from Ruther Glen, Va., said he managed to create an online account and password before he got stuck. “It kept telling me there was an error,” he said. Reynol Rodriguez, a computer technician from San Antonio, said he was able to do some comparison shopping online but computer glitches kept him from signing up. “I was very much looking forward to it,” said Rodriguez, 51. “That’s what this country needs — affordable health care.” Rodriguez pledged to keep trying — just what President Barack Obama has been recommending to those who’ve run into trouble. Count Janice Brown, a semiretired travel agent from Prather, Calif., among those who had a positive experience. After some initial trouble on the website, she got through to a help line and downloaded an application to buy a plan for $1,500 a month for herself and her husband. That’s $1,000 less than her current private plan. “I’m thrilled,” said Brown, 61. “The coverage is better. It’s fantastic.” Among those who’ve actually tested out the system, only about 1 in 10 succeeded in buying health insurance, the poll found. A quarter of those who tried to buy coverage weren’t sure whether they’d succeeded. Overall, 40 percent of Americans said the launch of the insurance markets hasn’t gone well, 20 percent said it’s gone somewhat well and 30 percent didn’t know what to say. Just 7 percent said the launch had gone “very well” or “somewhat well.” Even among those who support the president’s health care overhaul law, just 19 percent think the rollout has gone extremely well or very well. Forty percent say it’s gone somewhat well, and 18 percent think not too well or not well at all. The survey offers an early snapshot on use of the new health insurance exchanges set up by states and the federal government under Obama’s Affordable Care Act. Thirty-six states are using the federal government’s site, HealthCare.gov, which the Obama administration says has had millions of unique visitors. The administration has declined to release enrollment statistics, saying that will be done monthly. White House senior communications adviser Tara McGuinness said the administration is working around the clock “to improve the consumer experience,” and she stressed that the poll was taken just six days into a campaign over the coming months to educate people about their options. She added, “The overwhelming attention from millions of Americans checking out HealthCare.gov during the first few days is a good testament to the interest of Americans in new affordable health options.” The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that about 7 million uninsured people will gain coverage through the online insurance marketplaces next year, but the role of the markets is actually much bigger than that. They were intended to be a 21st century portal to coverage for people who do not have access to health insurance on the job. And that includes insured people as well as the uninsured. There are three big groups of potential customers for the markets: uninsured middle-class people who now will be able to get government-subsidized private coverage; people who currently purchase their own individual policies and are looking for better deals; and low-income people who will be steered by the marketplace to an expanded version of Medicaid in states that agree to expand that safety net program. The Census Bureau has estimated that about 48 million Americans lacked coverage in 2012, or more than 15 percent of the population. Starting next year, the law requires virtually all Americans to have insurance or face a tax penalty after a coverage gap of three months. Opinions are sharply divided on the overall framework of the law: 28 percent of Americans support it, 38 percent are opposed, and 32 percent don’t have an opinion either way, the poll found. When asked specifically whether the government should be able to require all Americans to buy insurance or face a fine, only about 3 in 10 Americans agreed, and 68 percent were opposed. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 3-7 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. It involved online interviews with 1,227 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. For results among the 76 respondents who attempted to use health insurance markets, the margin of error is plus or minus 13.5 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writers Andrew Miga and Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Follow Benac and Agiesta on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/nbenac and http://twitter.com/JennAgiesta Oct 09 AP-GfK Poll: Republicans get most blame for shutdown, tea party is potent and divisive factor By CALVIN WOODWARD and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama and lawmakers must rise above their incessant bickering and do more to end the partial government shutdown, according to a poll Wednesday that places the brunt of the blame on Republicans but finds no one standing tall in Washington. “So frustrating,” Martha Blair, 71, of Kerrville, Texas, said of the fiscal paralysis as her scheduled national parks vacation sits in limbo. “Somebody needs to jerk those guys together to get a solution, instead of just saying ‘no.’” The Associated Press-GfK survey affirms expectations by many in Washington — Republicans among them — that the GOP may end up taking the biggest hit in public opinion from the shutdown, as happened when much of the government closed 17 years ago. But the situation is fluid nine days into the shutdown and there’s plenty of disdain to go around. Overall, 62 percent mainly blamed Republicans for the shutdown. About half said Obama or the Democrats in Congress bear much responsibility. Most Americans consider the shutdown a serious problem for the country, the poll finds, though more than four in five have felt no personal effect. For those who have, thwarted vacations and a honeymoon at shuttered national parks, difficulty getting work done without federal contacts on the job and hitches in government benefits were among the complaints. Asked if she blamed Obama, House Republicans, Senate Democrats or the tea party for the shutdown, Blair, an independent, said yes, you bet. All of them. She’s paid to fly with a group to four national parks in Arizona and California next month and says she can’t get her money back or reschedule if the parks remain closed. “I’m concerned,” she said, “but it seems kind of trivial to people who are being shut out of work.” The poll found that the tea party is more than a gang of malcontents in the political landscape, as its supporters in Congress have been portrayed by Democrats. Rather, it’s a sizable — and divisive — force among Republicans. More than 4 in 10 Republicans identified with the tea party and were more apt than other Republicans to insist that their leaders hold firm in the standoff over reopening government and avoiding a default of the nation’s debt in coming weeks. Most Americans disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job, the poll suggests, with 53 percent unhappy with his performance and 37 percent approving of it. Congress is scraping rock bottom, with a ghastly approval rating of 5 percent. Indeed, anyone making headlines in the dispute has earned poor marks for his or her trouble, whether it’s Democrat Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, or Republican John Boehner, the House speaker, both with a favorability rating of 18 percent. And much of the country draws a blank on Republican Ted Cruz of Texas despite his 21-hour Senate speech before the shutdown. Only half in the poll were familiar enough with him to register an opinion. Among those who did, 32 percent viewed him unfavorably, 16 percent favorably. Tom Moore, 69, of Syracuse, N.Y., a retired electronics executive and Republican-leaning independent, said the GOP has made some good points, badly. The idea of delaying the health care law’s individual insurance mandate for a year, for example, strikes him as reasonable, but not when such demands come from hard-liners like Cruz. “I think the Republicans have done a very poor job of communicating their mission,” he said. “They’ve been ostracized for trying to bring reality to our budgets.” But he’s not in tune with the animosity many Republicans exhibit toward the president. Obama, he said, is a compassionate, reasonable and likable man who has set the wrong priorities — “a social mission” — in a time begging for economic renewal. Comparisons could not be drawn conclusively with how people viewed leaders before the shutdown because the poll was conducted online, while previous AP-GfK surveys were done by telephone. Some changes may be due to the new methodology, not shifts in opinion. The poll provides a snapshot of public opinion starting in the third day of the shutdown. The poll comes with both sides dug in and trading blame while an unprecedented national default approaches if nothing is done to raise the debt limit. Obama invited all 232 House GOP lawmakers to the White House on Thursday — Republicans said 18 would come. His meeting with congressional leaders last week produced no results. Obama is insisting Republicans reopen government and avert default before any negotiations on deficit reduction or his 2010 health care law are held. Among the survey’s findings: — Sixty-eight percent said the shutdown is a major problem for the country, including majorities of Republicans (58 percent), Democrats (82 percent) and independents (57 percent). — Fifty-two percent said Obama is not doing enough to cooperate with Republicans to end the shutdown; 63 percent say Republicans aren’t doing enough to cooperate with him. — Republicans are split on just how much cooperation they want. Among those who do not back the tea party, fully 48 percent say their party should be doing more with Obama to find a solution. But only 15 percent of tea-party Republicans want that outreach. The vast majority of them say GOP leaders are doing what they should with the president, or should do even less with him. — People seem conflicted or confused about the showdown over the debt limit. Six in 10 predict an economic crisis if the government’s ability to borrow isn’t renewed later this month with an increase in the debt limit — an expectation widely shared by economists. Yet only 30 percent say they support raising the limit; 46 percent were neutral on the question. In Mount Prospect, Ill., Barbara Olpinski, 51, a Republican who blames Obama and both parties for the shutdown, said her family is already seeing an impact and that will worsen if the impasse goes on. She’s an in-home elderly care director, her daughter is a physician’s assistant at a rural clinic that treats patients who rely on government coverage, and her husband is a doctor who can’t get flu vaccines for patients on public assistance because deliveries have stopped. “People don’t know how they are going to pay for things, and what will be covered,” she said. “Everybody is kind of like holding their wallets.” Moore traveled to Las Vegas with his wife and Florida relatives hoping to see Red Rock Canyon, only to find the national conservation area closed. Instead they went to Hoover Dam, also a federal property but one that has remained open because it is not financed with congressional appropriations. “Not a catastrophe,” he said, but he doesn’t know when they’ll go again. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 3-7 and involved online interviews with 1,227 adults. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents. The survey used GfK’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based Internet panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Respondents to the survey were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed for this survey online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have online access were given that access at no cost to them. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. May 30 AP-WE tv Poll: 2 in 5 women would consider single motherhood; more than a third would adopt solo By JOCELYN NOVECK and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press As Christy Everson was nearing age 40, she made a decision: She wanted to have a child, even though she was single and it meant doing it all alone. Her daughter, conceived via a sperm donor, is now 2 1/2 years old, and Everson hopes to have a second child. “Was it worthwhile? Well, I’m thinking of doing it again, aren’t I?” she says. Everson and women like her are part of a shift in American society. An Associated Press-WE tv poll of people under 50 found that more than 2 in 5 unmarried women without children — or 42 percent — would consider having a child on their own without a partner, including more than a third, or 37 percent, who would consider adopting solo. The poll, which addressed a broad range of issues on America’s changing family structures, dovetails with a recent report by the U.S. Census Bureau that single motherhood is on the rise: It found that of 4.1 million women who’d given birth in 2011, 36 percent were unmarried at the time of the survey, an increase from 31 percent in 2005. And among mothers 20-24, the percentage was 62 percent, or six in 10 mothers. The AP-WE tv poll also found that few Americans think the growing variety of family arrangements is bad for society. However, many have some qualms about single mothers, with some two-thirds — or 64 percent — saying single women having children without a partner is a bad thing for society. More men — 68 percent — felt that way, compared to 59 percent of women. The survey found broad gender gaps in opinion on many issues related to how and when to have children. One example: At a time when the can-you-have-it-all debate rages for working mothers, women were more apt than men to say having children has negatively impacted their career. And this was true especially among mothers who waited until age 30 or older to have children. Fully 47 percent of those mothers said having a child had a negative impact on their careers. Of women overall, 32 percent of mothers reported a negative effect, compared with 10 percent of men. For Everson, who lives in a suburb of Minneapolis and is now 44, being the only parent means daily responsibilities that naturally suck up some of the time she used to spend on her career as a financial consultant. “To be honest about it, it’s hard to be a rock star” when parenting a baby, she says. But she sees it as more of a temporary career setback, and feels she’s already getting back on track with her toddler now over age 2. Soon, she says, “I’ll be getting back on my A-game.” For Joyce Chen, a hospital occupational therapist in San Francisco, it’s a question of what kind of career she wants to have. Chen, 41 and also a single mother, is happy to have work that she not only enjoys, but that she can balance easily with caring for her 10-year-old daughter. “I’ve been blessed,” she says. “I have a decent income. I don’t feel like I need to climb the ladder. I enjoy what I do, but I can leave it at the end of the day and not think about it.” Chen also credits a strong community of friends from church for helping make her family work. “That community has helped me raise my daughter,” she says. She hopes to get married one day if the right situation comes along. But Chen feels that a single mom can do just as good a job of raising a child as two parents can. Overall, the poll found decidedly mixed results on that question: Thirty percent of respondents said yes, 27 percent said no, and 43 percent said “it depends.” At 26, Jacqueline Encinias is at a much less established point in her career. A married mother of a month-old baby in Albuquerque, N.M., she aims to go back to school to study accounting. For now, though, she says she’s “just looking for something to get me by.” Encinias says that she would probably not have made the choice to be a mother alone. “I wouldn’t want my child to grow up with just one parent,” she says. “If other people want to do it, it’s OK, but it’s not for me.” Support of a partner is crucial to her, she says. (Finding the right person to parent with was a key factor in the decision to have a child, the poll found, cited by both current parents and non-parents.) Shermeka Austin, a 23-year-old student in Warren, Mich., feels the same way. “That would not be a choice for me, being a single parent,” Austin says. She hopes to get married and have children one day, but first, she says, she wants to focus on her goal of opening her own bakery. Once she achieves that, she’d be happy to make sacrifices in order to have kids. In the poll, about three-quarters (76 percent) of women without children said that it was important for them to reach certain career goals before they start a family. While 42 percent of unmarried women said they would consider single parenthood, compared with 24 percent of men, answers varied greatly as to the ways they’d consider going about it. Thirty-seven percent of women said they’d consider adopting solo (compared to 19 percent of men), about a third of women — 31 percent — said they’d consider freezing their eggs, and 27 percent would be willing to use artificial insemination and donor sperm. Stacey Ehlinder, a 28-year-old event planner in Denver, says she would consider some of those options at some point if necessary — though she’s currently in a relationship headed towards marriage. She says she’s surprised by the high percentage of poll respondents who had doubts about single mothers. “It just seems like these days there are so many more definitions of a family,” she says. Ehlinder is confident that if she does have children, she’ll be able to balance career and motherhood. “In my industry, and in companies I’ve worked for, I’ve seen flexibility given to mothers,” she says. “It makes me feel confident that I could juggle things and be the mother I want to be.” Many respondents, in interviews, said that while the optimal situation for raising kids is two parents, there’s no prescription for the perfect family. Matthew Dean, a father of three in San Antonio, Texas, said he was glad that his wife, a former teacher, is able to stay home with their kids, an arrangement that was originally supposed to be temporary. “It was first, let’s do it through kindergarten, then it was, let’s do it through second grade…” he quips. Ultimately they decided it was best for the children. “I look around and realize how everything would have been so chaotic and rushed, otherwise,” Dean says. Still, he says, he understands that many different arrangements work, including single-parent families. “It’s maybe not preferred, but it is what it is,” says Dean, 46. “It’s an added challenge, but that doesn’t mean it’s bad. There’s no guarantee in any situation. People can have a two-parent situation that is a complete wreck.” The poll was conducted in conjunction with WE tv ahead of the launch of the show “Pregnant and Dating,” which looks at the dating lives of women on the verge of becoming single mothers. It was conducted May 15-23, 2013 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel. It involved online interviews with 1,277 people age 18-49, including interviews with 298 women who have children or are currently pregnant with their first child and have never been married. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents. KnowledgePanel is constructed using traditional telephone and mail sampling methods to randomly recruit respondents. People selected who had no Internet access were given it for free. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://surveys.ap.org A deeper look at the key findings in the Associated Press-WE tv poll An Associated Press-WE tv poll took a deep look at how Americans under age 50 feel about having children, single parents and changing family structures. THE CHANGING AMERICAN FAMILY -In the poll, 31 percent of all parents reported being unmarried when they had their first child. About half (47 percent) of currently unmarried women in this age group are mothers. -Nearly half (45 percent) say the growing variety of family arrangements in the U.S. doesn’t really have much impact on society, with the remainder divided on whether they make a positive impact (28 percent) or a negative one (26 percent). Women tilt toward calling new arrangements positive (31 percent say so compared with 23 percent who say it’s a bad thing) and men are split nearly evenly (29 percent say they’re bad, 25 percent good). -On the other hand, 64 percent call single women having children a bad thing for society — a figure that has held steady in Pew Research Center polls on the topic back to 1997. Even mothers who had their first child while unmarried express concern that increasing numbers of solo moms are bad for society — 49 percent say so compared with 11 percent who say it’s a good thing and 40 percent who say it doesn’t make much difference. About half of single mothers (51 percent) say a single mother can do as good a job as two parents. PARENTS REFLECT ON THEIR DECISIONS, IMPACT OF CHILDREN -Three-quarters who already have children say they always knew they wanted them, and fathers (81 percent) were a bit more likely to say they always wanted kids than mothers (72 percent). -Parents say their children had a positive impact on their love life (45 percent positive vs. 19 percent negative) and social life (37 percent positive to 22 percent negative), but more say having children hurt rather than helped their financial well-being (35 percent negative, 25 percent positive). -Among working parents, working mothers are almost three times as likely as fathers to say their careers took a hit when they became parents (31 percent of working moms say so compared with 11 percent of working dads). -College educated women (44 percent) and women who became mothers at age 30 or above (47 percent) were most apt to report a negative impact on their career from having children. But those same women who became mothers at age 30 or above were more apt than other mothers to say having children increased their overall happiness, sense of accomplishment and sense of purpose. -More than 8 in 10 parents said that their decision to have a child rested heavily on having found the right person to have a child with, the joy in having children and having the financial resources to raise a child. Less than half said it was important that they reach certain career goals before having a family, and only 17 percent said pressure from parents or other family members was key. Forty percent of parents said an important factor was that “it just happened.” MOST WITHOUT CHILDREN WANT THEM EVENTUALLY -Among those under age 50 without children, 53 percent say they want them eventually, 30 percent say it depends, 16 percent say no. Of those who do, 94 percent say an important factor is finding the right partner. Yet 42 percent of unmarried women and 24 percent of unmarried men who want children say they would consider ways to have or adopt a child on their own. -Non-parents are more likely than those who’ve already had children to say it’s important to consider whether they have the financial resources to raise a child (94 percent call that important) and to reach certain career goals before starting a family (72 percent say it’s important to do so). -If those parents-to-be go it alone, they won’t necessarily stay that way. Broadly speaking, kids aren’t a turnoff in the dating world. About 7 in 10 would start a relationship with someone who already had children, though that drops to 56 percent if the child is an infant. -Among men, about a quarter say they would consider a relationship with a woman who’s pregnant. The AP-WE tv Poll, conducted May 15-23, 2013 using GfK’s probability-based online panel KnowledgePanel, involved online interviews with 1,277 people age 18-49. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents. ___ Methodology and question wording available online: http://surveys.ap.org How the Associated Press-WE tv poll on the changing American family was conducted The Associated Press-WE tv poll on the changing American family and having children was conducted May 15-23 and is based on interviews of 1,277 adults 18-49, including 298 women ages 18-49 who have never married and have children or are pregnant. The national survey was conducted online by GfK of Palo Alto, Calif., under the direction and supervision of the AP’s polling unit. The original sample was drawn from a panel of respondents GfK recruited via phone or mail survey methods. The company provides Web access to panel recruits who don’t already have it. With a probability basis and coverage of people who otherwise couldn’t access the Internet, GfK’s online surveys using KnowledgePanel are nationally representative. Results were weighted, or adjusted, to reflect the adult population by demographic factors such as age, sex, region, race, and education. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.8 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults 18-49 in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for women ages 18-49 who have never married and have children or are pregnant is plus or minus 8.9 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://surveys.ap.org . May 11 Five decades after JFK’s assassination, the lucrative conspiracy theory industry hums along By ALLEN G. BREED, Associated Press On the very day John F. Kennedy died, a cottage industry was born. Fifty years and hundreds of millions of dollars later, it’s still thriving. Its product? The “truth” about the president’s assassination. ”By the evening of November 22, 1963, I found myself being drawn into the case,” Los Angeles businessman Ray Marcus wrote in “Addendum B,” one of several self-published monographs he produced on the assassination. For him, authorities were just too quick and too pat with their conclusion. ”The government was saying there was only one assassin; that there was no conspiracy. It was obvious that even if this subsequently turned out to be true, it could not have been known to be true at that time.” Most skeptics, including Marcus, didn’t get rich by publishing their doubts and theories — and some have even bankrupted themselves chasing theirs. But for a select few, there’s been good money in keeping the controversy alive. Best-selling books and blockbuster movies have raked in massive profits since 1963. And now, with the 50th anniversary of that horrible day in Dallas looming, a new generation is set to cash in. Of course, the Warren Commission officially concluded in 1964 that Lee Harvey Oswald had acted alone — and issued 26 volumes of documents to support that determination. But rather than closing the book on JFK’s death, the report merely served as fuel for an already kindled fire of doubt and suspicion. Since then, even government investigators have stepped away from the lone assassin theory. In 1978, the U.S. House Select Committee on Assassinations ended its own lengthy inquiry by finding that JFK “was probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy.” That panel acknowledged it was “unable to identify the other gunman or the extent of the conspiracy.” But armed with mountains of subsequently released documents, there has been no shortage of people willing to offer their own conclusions. Among the leading suspects: Cuban exiles angry about the Bay of Pigs fiasco; Mafiosi enraged by Attorney General Robert Kennedy’s attacks on organized crime; the “military-industrial complex,” worried about JFK’s review of war policy in Vietnam. One theorist even floated the notion that Kennedy’s limousine driver shot the president — as part of an effort to cover up proof of an alien invasion. Anything but that Oswald, a hapless former Marine, was in the right place at the right time, with motive and opportunity to pull off one of the most audacious crimes in American history. ”As they say, nature abhors a vacuum, and the mind abhors chance,” says Michael Shermer, executive director of the Skeptics Society and author of “The Believing Brain,” a book on how humans seem hardwired to find patterns in disparate facts and unconnected, often innocent coincidences. Polls underscore the point. About 6 in 10 Americans say they believe multiple people were involved in a conspiracy to assassinate Kennedy, while only one-fourth think Oswald acted alone, according to an AP-GfK survey done in mid-April. Belief in a conspiracy, though strong, has declined since a 2003 Gallup poll found 75 percent said they thought Oswald was part of a wider plot. The case has riveted the public from the start. When the Warren Commission report was released in book form, it debuted at No. 7 on The New York Times Best Sellers List. Two years later, attorney Mark Lane’s “Rush to Judgment” dominated the list. The Warren Commission, he argued, “frequently chose to rely on evidence that was no stronger and sometimes demonstrably weaker than contrary evidence which it rejected.” The book has since sold millions of copies in hardcover and paperback, says Lane. Since then, dozens of books with titles like “Best Evidence,” ”Reasonable Doubt,” ”High Treason” and “Coup D’Etat in America: The CIA and the Assassination of John F. Kennedy” have sought to lay responsibility for JFK’s death at the highest levels of the U.S. government — and beyond. British journalist Anthony Summers, whose BBC documentary became the 1980 book “Conspiracy,” says many conspiracy buffs “are fine scholars and students, and some are mad as hatters who think it was done by men from Mars using catapults.” Unlike the later coverage of Watergate, there were no reporters like The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein, who were told by their editors, “Get on this and don’t get off it,” says Summers, whose works focused on people and events largely ignored or treated cursorily by the official investigations. “Nobody went down there and really did the shoe leather work and the phone calls that we’re all supposed to do,” he says. For many, the Kennedy assassination has become “a board game: ‘Who killed JFK?’ So you feel free to sit around and say, ‘Oh! It’s the mob. Oh! It’s the KGB’ … and have no shame,” scoffs Gerald Posner, whose 1993 book “Case Closed” declared that the Warren Commission essentially got it right. The Oswald-as-patsy community has vilified Posner. But the lawyer says he didn’t set out to write a defense of the Warren Commission. Instead, he planned to go back through the critical evidence to see what more could be determined through hindsight and more modern investigative techniques — “and then put out a book that says, ‘Read THIS book. Here are the four unresolved issues of the Kennedy assassination, with the evidence on both sides.’” Halfway through the allotted research time, Posner went to the editorial staff with a new idea: A book that says flat-out who killed Kennedy. ”Who?” one of the editors asked, as Posner retells it. “Oswald,” he answered. ”And who?” ”Oswald,” Posner says he repeated. “And they literally looked at me as though I had just come in from Mars. And you could tell there was this feeling of, ‘Oh my God. He’s read the Warren Commission and that’s all he’s done.’” ”Case Closed” went on to sell 100,000 copies in hardcover. “I would have never thunk it,” Posner says. Unlike Posner, Vincent Bugliosi, author of 2007′s “Reclaiming History: The Assassination of President John F. Kennedy,” embarked on his book expecting to vindicate the Warren Commission. What he didn’t expect was for it to balloon into a 1,650-page behemoth — with a CD-ROM containing an additional 960 pages of endnotes — that cost $57. ”STOP writing,” he recalls his wife telling him. “You’re killing the sales of the book.” The 78-year-old lawyer blames the conspiracy theorists. “We’re talking about people,” he explains, “who’ve invested the last 15, 20, 25 years of their life in this. They’ve lost jobs. They’ve gotten divorces. Nothing stops them.” ”Like a pea brain,” he says, he responded to all of their allegations. “It’s a bottomless pit. It never, ever ends. And if my publisher … didn’t finally step in and say, ‘Vince, we’re going to print,’ I’d still be writing the book.” Despite its girth and hefty price tag, “Reclaiming History” had a respectable first printing of 40,000, says Bugliosi, best known as the former deputy Los Angeles district attorney who prosecuted Charles Manson. But in a 9,400-word review, Gary L. Aguilar, a director of the Washington-based Assassination Archives and Research Center, wrote that the only thing Bugliosi’s book proved was “that it may not be possible for one person to fully master, or give a fair accounting of, this impossibly tangled mess of a case.” Bugliosi omitted or distorted evidence and failed to disprove “the case for conspiracy,” Aguilar wrote. Lamar Waldron is not surprised at the success of people like Bugliosi and Posner. ”The biggest money has been generated for the authors … who kind of pretend it all was right back in 1964 and nothing really has happened since,” says Waldron, who has co-written two books on the assassination. “The large six-figure advances and everything like that don’t go to the people who dig through all those millions of pages of files and research for years.” In “Ultimate Sacrifice” and “Legacy of Secrecy,” Waldron and co-author Thom Hartmann used declassified CIA documents to make the case that JFK (and later his brother Robert) were killed because of plans to overthrow Cuban dictator Fidel Castro — and the Mafia’s infiltration of that operation. Waldron says the books have sold a combined 85,000 copies since 2005. And now, Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro are set to star in a feature film version of “Legacy of Secrecy” — with a reported price tag of up to $90 million. That’s one of a pair of major movies — landing on opposite sides of the Oswald-as-lone-gunman debate — due out this year. Oscar winners Marcia Gay Harden and Billy Bob Thornton have signed on for the Tom Hanks-produced “Parkland,” named for the Dallas hospital where Kennedy was pronounced dead. That project, which Hanks’ website describes as “part thriller, part real-time drama,” is based on a small portion of Bugliosi’s magnum opus. A TV movie is to be made from another new book, “Killing Kennedy,” co-written by Fox News host Bill O’Reilly, which had sold 1 million copies within four months of its release in October. In a note to readers, O’Reilly wrote: “In our narrative, Martin Dugard and I go only as far as the evidence takes us. We are not conspiracy guys, although we do raise some questions about what is unknown and inconsistent.” Academy Award winner Errol Morris is working on a documentary about the assassination. He did not respond to an interview request. One film, critics say, has done more than anything to shape the public’s perception of the assassination: That’s Oliver Stone’s 1991 drama, “JFK.” ”He made this kind of paranoid conspiracy theory respectable,” says New York writer Arthur Goldwag, author of “Cults, Conspiracies, and Secret Societies.” The movie tells the story of New Orleans District Attorney Jim Garrison, played by Kevin Costner. Garrison remains the only prosecutor to bring someone to trial for an alleged conspiracy to kill Kennedy. The film is “a remarkable litany of falsehoods and misrepresentations and exaggerations and omissions,” Posner says. “The reason that I’m so hard on Stone is because he’s such a good filmmaker. If he was a schlocky filmmaker, it wouldn’t matter.” Shermer, of the Skeptics Society, agrees that Stone’s role in stirring the conspiracy pot is “huge.” ”You tell somebody a good story, that’s more powerful than tons of data, charts and graphs and statistics,” he says. “And Oliver Stone’s a good storyteller. He’s biased and he’s very deceptive, and I don’t trust him at all. But the movie’s great.” Stone’s publicist said the director had “chosen to pass on this opportunity” to comment. ”JFK” took in more than $205 million at the box office, nearly two-thirds of that overseas, and has since raked in untold millions more in television royalties, pay-per-view, and videocassette and DVD rentals. In the recent AP-GfK poll, respondents were asked how much of what they knew about the JFK case came from various sources. Only 9 percent cited movies or fictional TV shows, while the greatest portion, 37 percent, said history texts and nonfiction books. About two dozen JFK-related titles are due on bookstore shelves in coming months, says Patricia Bostelman, vice president of marketing for Barnes & Noble booksellers. Among them is “They Killed Our President: The Conspiracy to Kill JFK and the Cover-Up That Followed,” by former pro wrestler and Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura. Other authors are taking advantage of the anniversary to reissue or expand on previous works. Waldron is working on a book focusing on mob figures who confessed to being part of a conspiracy to kill the president. Summers is publishing a sequel to “Conspiracy,” incorporating material released since 1980, while Bugliosi has a “Parkland” paperback to accompany the movie release. And “Case Closed” will soon appear for the first time as an e-book. Despite the mountains of documents released since its publication, and a mountain of criticism of his conclusions, Posner says there is no plan to update it, other than perhaps including a new foreword. ”I moved on to other subjects,” he says. On Nov. 22, 1963, John Kelin was a 7-year-old second-grader in Peoria, Ill. He says the Kennedy assassination is “my earliest clear memory in life.” But he didn’t really give the case much thought until 13 years later, when as a sophomore at Eastern Michigan University he attended a lecture by Mark Lane. It was the first time he saw the Abraham Zapruder film that captured the moment when Kennedy was fatally wounded. ”Using slow motion and freeze frame, Lane made sure that all of us sitting in that hot, poorly ventilated auditorium understood that Kennedy’s head and shoulders were slammed backward and to the left, and that Lee Harvey Oswald’s alleged shooting position was behind the presidential limousine,” Kelin wrote in a book, “Praise from a Future Generation,” about early critics of the Warren Report. “In a way, that lecture was the genesis of this book.” Kelin bristles at references to a conspiracy theory “industry,” preferring to think of himself as part of a grass roots response to the government’s “severely flawed, unsatisfactory explanations for what really happened in 1963.” His publisher, Wings Press, has “made intimations” about releasing a digital edition of “Praise” for the 50th anniversary. Meanwhile, Kelin has written another JFK book — a fictional account of how he came to write the first one. ”It’s kind of a satire of the present-day research community,” he says, “with a love story thrown in to try to broaden the interest level.” The title: “Conspiracy Nut.” ___ AP writer David Porter in Newark, N.J., also contributed to this report. Breed is a national writer, based in Raleigh, N.C. He can be reached at features(at)ap.org. Follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/AllenGBreed ___ Note: The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted April 11-15, 2013 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com May 11 New poll finds that belief in JFK assassination conspiracy still strong, but slipping slightly By The Associated Press A clear majority of Americans still suspect there was a conspiracy behind President John F. Kennedy’s assassination, but the percentage who believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone is at its highest level since the mid-1960s, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Cheryl Casati, 62, who retired from the Air Force after 20 years, watched it all unfold on television back in November 1963. She said she’s “extremely sure” there was a conspiracy. The killing of Oswald, the accused shooter, just days after the assassination is part of the reason why. ”There’s too many holes in explanations,” the Phoenix-area woman said. “That just could not have happened easily in that time and place. And (Jack) Ruby shooting (Oswald) could not have happened as easily as it did.” Pat Sicinski sees it differently. She and her husband recently visited the Texas School Book Depository in Dallas. Looking out the sixth-floor window from which Oswald allegedly fired on Kennedy’s motorcade helped reaffirm the retired school employee’s faith in the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone gunman. ”Some skepticism is always justified,” the 68-year-old Houston-area woman said. “I just think when people take it to extremes, they lose me.” According to the AP-GfK survey, conducted in mid-April, 59 percent of Americans think multiple people were involved in a conspiracy to kill the president, while 24 percent think Oswald acted alone, and 16 percent are unsure. A 2003 Gallup poll found that 75 percent of Americans felt there was a conspiracy. The Oswald-acted-alone results, meanwhile, are the highest since the period three years after the assassination, when 36 percent said one man was responsible for Kennedy’s death. Robert Mawyer of Blairsville, Ga., is one of them. The 44-year-old IT salesman recently finished reading Bill O’Reilly’s “Killing Kennedy.” Assuming all of that information is correct, he has no problem accepting that Oswald went solo. ”The Warren Commission says that’s what happened, so I tend to believe that, I guess,” he said. But, he added, “I don’t suppose anybody can be completely positive.” Jon Genova is positive that no one person could have pulled off this crime. ”There are just a number of factors that don’t seem to zero out in my mind,” the 46-year-old Denver mechanical engineer said. “How some evidence seemed to be suppressed, and the results are sealed for how many years? And the fact that … it just seemed like the whole political winds change at the point when Kennedy was assassinated. It just seemed as if he was probably an impediment.” Those who were adults in 1963 were almost as likely as younger Americans to say that Kennedy’s killing was a conspiracy involving multiple people _ 55 percent, compared to 61 percent. As for who might have been behind a conspiracy, Genova’s money is on the Central Intelligence Agency. Casati, who wouldn’t divulge her rank or military occupation, was a little more circumspect. ”I will tell you that Jack Kennedy was too much of his own person,” she said. “And he made decisions that were not popular with some agencies, as far as I’m concerned.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted April 11-15, 2013 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups. ___ AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. __ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll on the assassination of John F. Kennedy was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on the assassination of John F. Kennedy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications on April 11-15. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 601 respondents on landline telephones and 403 on cellular telephones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. May 02 AP-GfK poll: 4 in 5 Americans say don’t change Redskins nickname; 11 percent say change it By BEN NUCKOLS, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s been a rough offseason for the Washington Redskins, and not just because of the knee injury to star quarterback Robert Griffin III. The team’s nickname, which some consider a derogatory term for Native Americans, has faced a barrage of criticism. Local leaders and pundits have called for a name change. Opponents have launched a legal challenge intended to deny the team federal trademark protection. A bill introduced in Congress in March would do the same, though it appears unlikely to pass. But a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows that nationally, “Redskins” still enjoys widespread support. Nearly four in five Americans don’t think the team should change its name, the survey found. Only 11 percent think it should be changed, while 8 percent weren’t sure and 2 percent didn’t answer. Although 79 percent favor keeping the name, that does represent a 10 percentage point drop from the last national poll on the subject, conducted in 1992 by The Washington Post and ABC News just before the team won its most recent Super Bowl. Then, 89 percent said the name should not be changed, and 7 percent said it should. The AP-GfK poll was conducted from April 11-15 and included interviews with 1,004 adults on both land lines and cell phones. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. Several poll respondents told The AP that they did not consider the name offensive and cited tradition in arguing that it shouldn’t change. “That’s who they’ve been forever. That’s who they’re known as,” said Sarah Lee, a 36-year-old stay-at-home mom from Osceola, Ind. “I think we as a people make race out to be a bigger issue than it is.” But those who think the name should be changed say the word is obviously derogatory. “With everything that Native Americans have gone through in this country, to have a sports team named the Redskins — come on, now. It’s bad,” said Pamela Rogal, 56, a writer from Boston. “Much farther down the road, we’re going to look back on this and say, ‘Are you serious? Did they really call them the Washington Redskins?’ It’s a no-brainer.” Among football fans, 11 percent said the name should be changed — the same as among non-fans. Among nonwhite football fans, 18 percent said it should change, about double the percentage of white football fans who oppose the name. In Washington, debate over the name has increased in recent months. In February, the National Museum of the American Indian held a daylong symposium on the use of Indian mascots by sports teams. Museum Director Kevin Gover, of the Pawnee Nation, said the word “redskin” was “the equivalent of the n-word.” District of Columbia Mayor Vincent Gray, a Democrat, suggested that the team would have to consider changing the name if it wanted to play its home games in the city again. Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat who represents the district in Congress, said she’s a fan of the team but avoids saying “Redskins.” Just this week, a D.C. councilmember introduced a resolution calling for a name change, and it appears to have enough support to pass, although the council has no power over the team. “We need to get rid of it,” said longtime local news anchor Jim Vance in a commentary that aired in February. Vance, of WRC-TV, revealed that he has avoided using the name on the air for the past few years. Other media outlets have done the same. The Washington City Paper substitutes the name “Pigskins,” and DCist.com announced in February that it would avoid using the name in print. The Kansas City Star also has a policy against printing “Redskins.” In March, a three-judge panel heard arguments from a group of five Native American petitioners that the team shouldn’t have federal trademark protection, which could force owner Daniel Snyder into a change by weakening him financially. A decision isn’t expected for up to a year, and the Redskins are sure to appeal if it doesn’t go their way. A similar case, ultimately won by the team, was filed in 1992 and needed 17 years to go through the legal system before the Supreme Court declined to intervene. Several poll respondents told AP that they were unaware of the ongoing debate. “If we’re going to say that ‘Redskins’ is an offensive term, like the n-word or something like that, I haven’t heard that,” said David Black, 38, a football fan from Edmond, Okla., who doesn’t think a change is necessary. George Strange, 52, of Jacksonville, Fla., who feels the name should change, said people might change their minds if they become more educated about the word and its history. “My opinion, as I’ve gotten older, has changed. When I was younger, it was not a big deal. I can’t get past the fact that it’s a racial slur,” Strange said. “I do have friends that are Redskins fans and … they can’t step aside and just look at it from a different perspective.” There’s precedent for a Washington team changing its name because of cultural sensitivities. The late Washington Bullets owner Abe Pollin decided the nickname was inappropriate because of its association with urban violence, and in 1997, the NBA team was rechristened the Wizards. Other professional sports teams have Native American nicknames, including the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs and baseball’s Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians. But former U.S. Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado, who is Native American, said “Redskins” is much worse because of its origins and its use in connection with bounties on Indians. “There’s a derogatory name for every ethnic group in America, and we shouldn’t be using those words,” Campbell said, adding that many people don’t realize how offensive the word is. “We probably haven’t gotten our message out as well as it should be gotten out.” Numerous colleges and universities have changed names that reference Native Americans. St. John’s changed its mascot from the Redmen to the Red Storm, Marquette is now the Golden Eagles instead of the Warriors and Stanford switched from the Indians to the Cardinal. Synder, however, has been adamant that the name should not change, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has said he supports the team’s stance. General Manager Bruce Allen said in March that the team isn’t considering a new name. Following the symposium at the museum, the team posted a series of articles on its official website that spotlighted some of the 70 U.S. high schools that use the nickname Redskins. “There is nothing that we feel is offensive,” Allen said. “And we’re proud of our history.” ___ AP Sports Writer Joseph White, AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Follow Ben Nuckols on Twitter at https://twitter.com/APBenNuckols. ___ Online: The questions and answers from the poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll on the Washington Redskins was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on the Washington Redskins was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from April 11-15. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 601 respondents on landline telephones and 403 on cellular telephones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cellphone only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org Apr 19 AP-GfK poll: Doubts are rising among the populace over US economy and Obama’s handling of it By TOM RAUM and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — For the third year in a row, the nation’s economic recovery has hit a springtime soft spot. Reflecting that weakness, only 1 in 4 Americans now expects his or her own financial situation to improve over the next year, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. The sour mood is undermining support for President Barack Obama’s economic stewardship and for government in general. The poll shows that just 46 percent of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy while 52 percent disapprove. That’s a negative turn from an even split last September — ahead of Obama’s November re-election victory — when 49 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved. Just 7 percent of Americans said they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always,” the AP-GfK poll found. Fourteen percent trust it “most” of the time and two-thirds trust the federal government just “some of the time”; 11 percent say they never do. The downbeat public attitudes registered in the survey coincide with several dour economic reports showing recent slowdowns in gains in hiring, consumer retail spending, manufacturing activity and economic growth. Automatic government spending cuts, which are starting to kick in, also may be contributing to the current sluggishness and increased wariness on the part of both shoppers and employers. Overall, 25 percent of those in the poll describe the nation’s economy as good, 59 percent as poor — similar to a January AP-GfK poll. Respondents split on whether this was a “good time” to make major purchases such as furniture and electronic devices, with 31 percent agreeing it was, 38 percent calling it a “bad time” and 25 percent remaining neutral. The economy’s recovery from the severe 2007-2009 recession has been slow and uneven. Even so, most economic forecasts see continued economic growth ahead, even if it is sluggish and accompanied by only slowly improving levels of joblessness. Another recession in the near future is not being forecast. In the new poll, few say they saw much improvement in the economy in the last month. Just 21 percent say things have gotten better, 17 percent say they’ve gotten worse and 60 percent thought the economy “stayed about the same.” And the public is split on whether things will get better anytime soon, with 31 percent saying the national economy will improve in the next year, 33 percent saying it will hold steady and 33 percent saying it will get worse. Further, about 4 in 10 expect the nation’s unemployment rate to climb in the next year. And the public’s outlook for its own financial future is at its worst point in three years. Just 26 percent think their household economic well-being will improve over the next year, 50 percent think it will stay the same and 22 percent expect it to worsen. About 27 percent of those with incomes under $50,000 are the most likely to expect things for them personally to get worse in the next year compared with fewer than 2 in 10 among those with higher incomes. Democrats, who typically rate the economy better under the present Democratic president than do Republicans, have become less optimistic about their financial prospects since January. Then, 41 percent of Democrats thought their finances would improve in the next year while only 30 percent feel that way now. Jeremy Hammond, 33, of Queensbury, N.Y., a Web programmer, says Congress should focus on “the incredible debt and lack of spending control.” For instance, he said, it’s absurd for Congress to try to force the Postal Service to continue Saturday mail delivery — an effort that has so far failed — when the agency says, “We can’t afford it.’ Hammond, who considers himself a political independent, said he voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012. Obama’s overall job approval in the poll is at its lowest point since his re-election, at 50 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. His approval among Republicans is just 10 percent; among independents, 49 percent disapprove. But, if it’s any solace to the president and his supporters, Congress fared even worse. Thirty-seven percent approve of the performance of congressional Democrats, while 57 percent disapprove. For congressional Republicans, 27 percent approved of their performance and 67 percent disapproved. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted April 11-15 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. It is larger for subgroups. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Charles Babington contributed to this report. ___ Follow Tom Raum on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/tomraum ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from April 11-15. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 601 respondents on landline telephones and 403 on cellular telephones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cellular only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org Apr 18 AP-GfK poll: Public lacks faith in government, opposes changes to Medicare, Social Security By CHARLES BABINGTON and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s re-election glow is gone. Congress’ reputation remains dismal. And only about one in five Americans say they trust the government to do what’s right most of the time, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds. Most adults disapprove of Obama’s handling of the federal deficit, a festering national problem. But they also dislike key proposals to reduce deficit spending, including a slower growth in Social Security benefits and changes to Medicare. Rounding out the portrait of a nation in a funk, the share of people saying the United States is heading in the wrong direction is at its highest since last August: 56 percent. The government in Washington is “dealing with a lot of stuff that are non-issues,” said Jeremy Hammond, 33, of Queensbury, N.Y. Hammond, a Web programmer and political independent, said Congress should focus on “the incredible debt and lack of spending control.” He said it’s absurd for Congress to force the Postal Service to continue Saturday mail delivery when the agency says “we can’t afford it.” Hammond reflects the lukewarm feelings toward Obama found in the poll. Asked his opinion of the president, Hammond paused and said: “I don’t know. I voted for him in 2008, not in 2012.” When it comes to presidents, he said, “it’s one set of lawyers or the other.” Just 7 percent of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always,” the AP-GfK poll found. Fourteen percent say they trust it “most” of the time. Two-thirds trust the federal government only some of the time; 11 percent say they never do. Obama’s overall job approval rating is at its lowest point since his re-election: 50 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. His approval rating among Republicans — 10 percent — is back to where it was before the election. Among independents, disapproval has crept up to 49 percent. With more and more components of the 2010 “Obamacare” health law taking effect, 41 percent of Americans approve of the president’s handling of health care. That’s the lowest level during his time in office. Ratings of the president’s handling of the economy, meanwhile, are back in negative territory, with 52 percent disapproving and 46 percent approving. In last September’s run-up to the election, 49 percent said they approved, and 48 percent disapproved. In the new poll, disapproval among independents on handling the economy is up 10 percentage points since September 2012. It now stands at 57 percent. Obama’s budget proposals are winning few kudos. Fifty-six percent of Americans disapprove of the way he is handling the federal deficit, while 39 percent approve. Those levels have changed little in the past 15 months. Public support has dropped, however, for proposals recently floated by Obama and others to slow the growth of benefits in the popular but costly Social Security and Medicare programs. Opposition to raising the Medicare eligibility age has grown over the last few months in AP-GfK polling. Shortly after the fall election, 48 percent opposed such a plan, while 40 percent supported it. Opposition has grown by 11 points since then, with 59 percent now saying they dislike the idea. Support among Democrats fell from 41 percent last fall to just 27 percent now, with 60 percent opposed. Curiously, perhaps, the sharpest drop in support for a higher Medicare eligibility age was found among adults under 30. The new poll found 32 percent of them backing the idea, compared to 48 percent last fall. Medicare, the major health care program for seniors, is partly funded by payroll taxes on all wage earners. Most Americans also oppose a proposal to slow the cost-of-living hikes in Social Security benefits. Now, 54 percent oppose the idea, up slightly from January, when 49 percent opposed it. Only about a quarter favor it. Donald Roberts of Kingsport, Tenn., is among those who want no changes to Medicare and Social Security. “Leave them alone,” he said, “because it’s all you can do to get by on it.” Roberts, 57, a political independent and former construction worker, receives disability benefits and is diabetic. He said Medicare pays for his doctor visits, but he must cover some of his medications’ cost. Roberts also shared the often-heard disenchantment with Obama. “He’s OK, I guess,” Roberts said. “I wouldn’t have voted for him.” Hammond, the 33-year-old Web programmer, holds a different view of Medicare and Social Security. “They are critical programs,” he said, “but we should start privatizing some of that stuff.” Hammond said he thinks younger workers could get better returns if at least some of their payroll taxes were invested in stocks or other instruments, and then earmarked for each worker’s eventual retirement. Americans are ambivalent about raising taxes on wealthier households, which Obama proposes as a means to help shrink the deficit. Forty-five percent support new limits on itemized tax deductions for the top 2 percent of earners. That covers individuals making at least $183,000 a year, and married couples making $223,000 or more. One in three Americans oppose the idea. Most Democrats — 57 percent —favor the proposal. But only 41 percent of independents and 33 percent of Republicans do. Most Americans support Obama’s “Buffet rule,” which would require those making $1 million or more annually to pay at least 30 percent of their earnings in federal income taxes. Just under 60 percent support the idea, while 29 percent oppose it. Democrats might find comfort in the fact that Republican lawmakers are even less popular than Democrats. Thirty-seven percent of adults approve of congressional Democrats, while 57 percent disapprove. Republicans in Congress fare worse: 27 percent approve of their performance, and 67 percent disapprove. Even self-identified Republican adults have dim views of GOP lawmakers. Just 44 percent approve of the way congressional Republicans handle their jobs, and 52 percent disapprove. Democrats’ views of their own party’s lawmakers are considerably better, with 68 percent approving the job being done by Democrats in Congress. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted April 11-15, 2013, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups. __ News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on President Obama, politics and the federal budget deficit was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from April 11-15. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 601 respondents on landline telephones and 403 on cellular telephones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Apr 17 Background checks face steep odds in Senate showdown; AP-GfK poll shows ebbing gun control support By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — A bipartisan effort to expand background checks is in deep trouble as the Senate approaches a long-awaited vote on the linchpin of the drive to curb gun violence. As the showdown draws near, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows ebbing public support for tightening gun control laws. In the run-up to the roll call expected Wednesday, so many Republicans had declared their opposition to the background check measure that supporters — mostly Democrats — seemed headed to defeat unless they could turn votes around in the final hours. Supporters seemed likely to lose some moderate Democratic senators as well. ”It’s a struggle,” New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, the No. 3 Senate Democrat, conceded Tuesday. Perhaps helping explain Democrats’ problems, an AP-GfK poll this month showed that 49 percent of Americans support stricter gun laws. That was down from 58 percent who said so in January — a month after the December killings of 20 children and six aides at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school propelled gun violence into a national issue. Just over half the public — 52 percent — expressed disapproval in the new survey of how President Barack Obama has handled gun laws. Weeks after the Newtown slayings, Obama made a call for near universal background checks the heart of his gun control plan. In a climactic day, the Senate planned to hold eight other votes Wednesday besides the one on background checks, all of them amendments to a broad gun control measure. They included Democratic proposals to ban assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines, which are expected to lose; a Republican proposal requiring states to honor other states’ permits allowing concealed weapons, which faces a close vote; and a GOP substitute for the overall gun measure. The concealed weapons amendment, seen by advocates as protecting gun rights, was vehemently opposed by gun control groups, who say it would allow more guns into states with stricter firearms laws. The votes were coming a day after former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, badly injured in a 2011 mass shooting in Tucson, Ariz., and her husband, Mark Kelly, tried galvanizing gun control support by visiting Capitol Hill and attending a private lunch with Democratic senators. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., called the lunch — senators said it included emotional speeches from lawmakers — “as moving as any” he has attended. Background checks, aimed at screening out criminals and the seriously mentally ill from getting firearms, now apply only to purchases handled by licensed firearms dealers. Wednesday’s first vote was on an amendment by Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Patrick Toomey, R-Pa., extending the checks to firearms sales at gun shows and online. The compromise was widely seen as advocates’ best chance for winning enough GOP votes to muscle broadened checks through the Senate. As the roll call approached, Manchin and others kept saying they were close — but never said they had the votes they needed. ”We’re close, but we sure need their help,” Manchin told reporters after he and Toomey met privately with Giffords and Kelly. In a sign that the two senators faced a steep path to victory, they were no longer considering a change to their bill that would have exempted people who live far from gun dealers. Such people have a difficult time getting to dealers’ shops to have background checks performed. The hope had been to attract votes from Alaska and North Dakota senators, and the sponsors’ decision to move ahead without it suggested that their effort to win over those senators would fail. No. 2 Senate Democratic leader Dick Durbin of Illinois said Democrats would need support from nine or 10 Republicans — a daunting task. Opponents will need just 41 of the Senate’s 100 votes to derail the Manchin-Toomey background check plan. Thirty-one senators voted last week to completely block debate on overall gun legislation. Just two were Democrats — Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Mark Begich of Alaska. If all 31 oppose the Manchin-Toomey measure — and that is not certain — opponents would need just 10 more votes to prevail. So far, 11 of 16 Republicans who voted last week to let debate on the gun bill begin have said they will oppose Manchin-Toomey. That would give foes of expanded background checks 42 potential votes — one more than they need to win. Still uncertain was support from some Democrats from GOP-heavy states, including Max Baucus of Montana, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Baucus and Landrieu face re-election next year. The Senate gun bill would extend background checks to nearly all gun purchases, toughen penalties against illegal gun trafficking and add small sums to school safety programs. The AP-GfK poll found that overall, 49 percent said gun laws should be made stricter while 38 percent said they should stay the same. Among independents, support for stricter gun laws dipped from 60 percent in January to 40 percent now. About three-fourths of Democrats supported them then and now, while backing among Republicans for looser laws about doubled to 19 percent. The AP-GfK poll was conducted from April 11-15 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,004 randomly chosen adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. __ AP Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, news survey specialist Dennis Junius and writers Henry C. Jackson, Stephen Ohlemacher and Jim Abrams contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on gun control was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from April 10-14. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 601 respondents on landline telephones and 403 on cellular telephones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Apr 16 Immigration Link Jan 22 AP-GfK Poll: Most back path to citizenship for illegal immigrants as Republican opposition declines By ERICA WERNER and DENNIS JUNIUS WASHINGTON (AP) — More than 6 in 10 Americans now favor allowing illegal immigrants to eventually become U.S. citizens, a major increase in support driven by a turnaround in Republicans’ opinions after the 2012 elections. The finding, in a new Associated Press-GfK poll, comes as the Republican Party seeks to increase its meager support among Latino voters, who turned out in large numbers to help-re-elect President Barack Obama in November. Emboldened by the overwhelming Hispanic backing and by shifting attitudes on immigration, Obama has made overhauling laws about who can legally live in the U.S. a centerpiece of his second-term agenda. In the coming weeks, he’s expected to aggressively push for ways to create an eventual pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants already in this country. The poll results suggest that the public overall, not just Hispanics, will back his efforts. Sixty-two percent of Americans now favor providing a way for illegal immigrants in the U.S. to become citizens, an increase from just 50 percent in the summer of 2010, the last time the AP polled on the question. In an even earlier poll, in 2009, some 47 percent supported a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Further boosting the president on the issue, Democrats have opened a 41 percent to 34 percent advantage as the party more trusted to handle immigration, the first time they’ve held a significant edge on the matter in AP-GfK polling. In October 2010, Republicans held a slight edge over Democrats, 46 percent to 41 percent, on the question of who was more trusted on immigration. Much of the increase in support for a path to eventual citizenship has come among Republicans. A majority in the GOP — 53 percent — now favor the change. That’s up a striking 22 percentage points from 2010. Seventy-two percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents like the idea, similar to 2010. The findings suggest that those GOP lawmakers weighing support for eventual legal status for illegal immigrants could be rewarded politically not just by Democrats and independents but also by some in their own party as well. This comes amid soul-searching in the party about how the GOP can broaden its support with Latinos, who backed Obama over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, 71 percent to 27 percent, in November. Romney received less support from Latinos than Republican President George W. Bush did. But his slice was on par with candidates Bob Dole in 1996 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Some Republicans have concluded that backing comprehensive immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship is becoming a political necessity. Many lawmakers remain strongly opposed, and it’s far from clear whether Congress will ultimately sign off on such an approach. But in the Senate, a bipartisan group of lawmakers is working to draft immigration legislation, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a possible 2016 presidential candidate, has offered proposals that would ultimately allow illegal immigrants to attain legal status. One poll participant, Nick Nanos, 66, of Bellmore, N.Y., said that providing a way for illegal immigrants to become citizens would respect America’s history as a nation built by immigrants. “We act as if our grandparents got here legally. Don’t want to ask a single Indian about that,” Nanos said in a follow-up interview. “I don’t think that most of us can solidly come to a point where our grandparents or great-grandparents or great-great-grandparents were here legally. What does that even mean?” Overall, 54 percent in the poll said immigration is an important issue to them personally, a figure that’s remained steady over the past couple of years. Republicans aren’t the only group whose views have shifted significantly. In August of 2010, just 39 percent of seniors favored a path to citizenship. Now, 55 percent do. Among those without a college degree, support has increased from 45 percent to 57 percent. And 59 percent of whites now favor a way for illegal immigrants to gain citizenship, up from 44 percent in August 2010, and 41 percent in September 2009. Overall, the poll found 35 percent strongly favored allowing illegal immigrants to become citizens over time, while 27 percent favored the idea somewhat. Just 35 percent of Americans opposed the approach, with 23 percent strongly opposed and 12 percent somewhat opposed. That compared with 48 percent opposed in 2010 and 50 percent in 2009. The poll also found strong support for Obama’s decision, announced last summer, to shield as many as 800,000 immigrants from deportation with conditions. Those affected would have to be younger than 30, would have to have been brought to the U.S. before turning 16 and would have to fulfill certain other conditions including graduation from high school or serving in the military. Illegal immigrants covered by the order now can apply for work permits. The order bypassed Congress, which has not passed “DREAM Act” legislation to achieve some of the same goals for younger illegal immigrants. Sixty-three percent of Americans favor that policy, while 20 percent oppose it and 17 percent are in between or unsure, the poll said. The policy is supported by 76 percent of Democrats, significantly more than among Republicans (48 percent) or independents (59 percent). Cordel Welch, 41, of Los Angeles, was among those poll participants who believes illegal immigrants brought to the country as children should be treated differently from people who came here as adults. “The ones that were brought here by their parents, they’re already here, they’re already established,” Welch said in an interview. “The adults should go through the process.” Melissa Johnson, 40, of Porter, Texas, disagreed. “I think there were generations of people that came over here legally, and just because your parents snuck you in or snuck in while pregnant with you doesn’t give you automatic citizenship,” she said. “I think they should send them all back home.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 10-14, 2013, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points; the margin is larger for subgroups. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report How the AP-GfK poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK poll on immigration was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 10-14. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 400 on cellular telephones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Jan 17 AP-GfK Poll: Most see harm if debt limit not raised; more support GOP demand for spending cuts By ALAN FRAM and JENNIFER AGIESTA WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans think jarring economic problems will erupt if lawmakers fail to increase the government’s borrowing limit. Yet they’re torn over how or even whether to raise it, leaning toward Republican demands that any boost be accompanied by spending cuts. According to an Associated Press-GfK poll, 53 percent say that if the debt limit is not extended and the U.S. defaults, the country will face a major economic crisis. An additional 27 percent say such a crisis would be somewhat likely, while just 17 percent largely dismiss the prospects of such damage. Separately, Republican officials said Wednesday that GOP lawmakers may seek a short-term extension of the debt limit, thus avoiding a default as early as next month by the U.S. Treasury while they try to negotiate spending cuts with President Barack Obama over the next few months. “All options are on the table as far as we’re concerned,” Rep. Paul Ryan said at a House Republicans’ retreat near Williamsburg, Va. The poll’s findings echo many economists’ warnings that failure to raise the debt ceiling and the resulting, unprecedented federal default would risk wounding the world economy because many interest rates are pegged to the trustworthiness of the U.S. to pay its debts. Obama and many Republicans agree with that, though some GOP lawmakers eager to force Obama to accept spending cuts have downplayed a default’s impact. When asked which political path to follow, 39 percent of poll respondents support the insistence by House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., that deep spending cuts be attached to any measure increasing the debt ceiling. That’s more than the 30 percent who back Obama’s demand that borrowing authority be raised quickly and not entwined with a bitter fight over trimming the budget. An additional 21 percent oppose boosting the debt ceiling at all. The survey was conducted as the two parties gird for a debt-limit battle that is likely to dominate the next two months in the capital. The fight is sure to underscore partisan differences over how to curb federal deficits that have surpassed $1 trillion for four straight years. Obama insists that besides spending cuts there should be more tax increases on the wealthy, which the GOP opposes. While saying he will refuse to negotiate on the debt ceiling, Obama has said he will bargain separately on finding ways to reduce the annual federal deficit. Despite the majority in the survey who fear severe economic problems if the debt limit is not raised, in a separate question only about 3 in 10 supported the general idea of increasing the ceiling. Four in 10 opposed it, with the rest expressing neutral feelings. Democrats were about twice as likely as Republicans to support boosting the borrowing limit, while Republicans were likelier than Democrats by a similar margin to oppose an increase. The government reached its $16.4 trillion borrowing limit Dec. 31 but has avoided default by using cash from pension and other funds it administers, money that will eventually be replaced. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said his ability to use such bookkeeping measures will be exhausted by early March or sooner. Wayne Wiedrich, 46, an engineering inspector in Williston, N.D., said in a poll follow-up interview that he agrees that failure to boost the debt ceiling would risk severe problems. “But on the other hand, it’s not doing the economy any good to raise the debt limit, print money and spend money we don’t have. One of these days China will come knocking on our door and say, ‘We own you,’” he said, referring to the country that holds more U.S. debt than any other nation. Homemaker Sherry Giordano, 59, of Feasterville, Pa., disagreed. “It has to be done,” she said of raising the borrowing limit. “We shouldn’t risk our reputation or spend money and time arguing about it. We have to pay our debts.” The survey showed slight shifts in concerns about the economy and federal budget deficits. Eighty-six percent consider the economy a top issue, down 5 percentage points from last summer, while 76 percent have the same view on federal deficits, up 7 points since then. Around one-third expect the economy to worsen over the next year, the highest figure in AP-GfK polling in nearly two years. Less than 1 in 4 think the economy is in good shape, a fairly stable number since last summer. Despite the slight edge people give the GOP’s debt limit path, the survey showed Obama with some advantages as he begins his second term. Fifty-four percent approve of how he is handling his job, a figure that has changed little over the past year. That is more than triple Congress’ 17 percent approval rating, which edged down 6 percentage points since early December, before the two sides’ “fiscal cliff” fight ended with Republicans largely accepting Obama’s demands to raise taxes on the country’s highest earners. Democrats also have a slight 41 percent to 36 percent advantage over Republicans as the party more trusted to handle the economy. Both Obama and Congress have fallen in the public’s esteem after their last battle over the debt ceiling. In AP-GfK polling in June 2011, the president held a 52 percent approval rating. By August, it had declined to 46 percent after down-to-the-wire negotiations with Congress. Congressional approval ratings fell even further, from an already weak 21 percent in June to just 12 percent after the year’s debt limit standoff finally ended. When it comes to finding savings to balance the budget, nearly half prefer cutting government services as the GOP wants, 3 in 10 would rather increase taxes and about 1 in 10 would do both. The percentage backing cuts in federal services has dropped 13 percentage points since the spring of 2011, while the number supporting tax cuts has changed little. The poll also highlighted how public support dwindles when people are asked about specific cuts. Given four ideas for reducing budget deficits, only one got majority support: charging top earners higher Medicare premiums, backed by 60 percent. That included roughly even proportions of Democrats and Republicans, and majorities of all income groups in the poll. Only 30 percent back slowing the growth of annual Social Security benefit increases, which Obama agreed to accept in failed talks with Boehner on crafting a deficit-reduction compromise during the “fiscal cliff” fight. Just 35 percent support gradually raising the current Medicare eligibility age of 65, and 41 percent support defense cuts. The poll involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,004 randomly chosen adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was conducted from Jan. 10 to 14 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. ___ AP news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll on debt limit and politics was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK poll on the debt limit and politics was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 10-14. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 400 on cellular telephones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Dec 14 AP-GfK Poll: Belief in global warming rises with thermometers, even among US science doubters By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly 4 out of 5 Americans now think temperatures are rising and that global warming will be a serious problem for the United States if nothing is done about it, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds. Belief and worry about climate change are inching up among Americans in general, but concern is growing faster among people who don’t often trust scientists on the environment. In follow-up interviews, some of those doubters said they believe their own eyes as they’ve watched thermometers rise, New York City subway tunnels flood, polar ice melt and Midwestern farm fields dry up. Overall, 78 percent of those surveyed said they thought temperatures were rising and 80 percent called it a serious problem. That’s up slightly from 2009, when 75 percent thought global warming was occurring and just 73 percent thought it was a serious problem. In general, U.S. belief in global warming, according to AP-GfK and other polls, has fluctuated over the years but has stayed between about 70 and 85 percent. The biggest change in the polling is among people who trust scientists only a little or not at all. About 1 in 3 of the people surveyed fell into that category. Within that highly skeptical group, 61 percent now say temperatures have been rising over the past 100 years. That’s a substantial increase from 2009, when the AP-GfK poll found that only 47 percent of those with little or no trust in scientists believed the world was getting warmer. This is an important development because, often in the past, opinion about climate change doesn’t move much in core groups — like those who deny it exists and those who firmly believe it’s an alarming problem, said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University social psychologist and pollster. Krosnick, who consulted with The Associated Press on the poll questions, said the changes the poll shows aren’t in the hard-core “anti-warming” deniers, but in the next group, who had serious doubts. “They don’t believe what the scientists say, they believe what the thermometers say,” Krosnick said. “Events are helping these people see what scientists thought they had been seeing all along.” Phil Adams, a retired freelance photographer from Washington, North Carolina, said he was “fairly cynical” about scientists and their theories. But he believes very much in climate change because of what he’s seen with his own eyes. “Having lived for 67 years, we consistently see more and more changes based upon the fact that the weather is warmer,” he said. “The seasons are more severe. The climate is definitely getting warmer.” “Storms seem to be more severe,” he added. Nearly half, 49 percent, of those surveyed called global warming not just serious but “very serious,” up from 42 percent in 2009. More than half, 57 percent, of those surveyed thought the U.S. government should do a great deal or quite a bit about global warming, up from 52 percent three years earlier. But only 45 percent of those surveyed think President Barack Obama will take major action to fight climate change in his second term, slightly more than the 41 percent who don’t think he will act. Overall, the 78 percent who think temperatures are rising is not the highest percentage of Americans who have believed in climate change, according to AP polling. In 2006, less than a year after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, 85 percent thought temperatures were rising. The lowest point in the past 15 years for belief in warming was in December 2009, after some snowy winters and in the middle of an uproar about climate scientists’ emails that later independent investigations found showed no manipulation of data. Broken down by political party, 83 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of Republicans say the world is getting warmer. And 77 percent of independents say temperatures are rising. Among scientists who write about the issue in peer-reviewed literature, the belief in global warming is about 97 percent, according to a 2010 scientific study. The AP-GfK poll was conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 3 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,002 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points; the margin of error is larger for subgroups. ___ Associated Press Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report. ___ Seth Borenstein can be followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears How the AP-GfK Poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on climate change was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Nov. 29 to Dec. 3. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,002 adults. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cellphone only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Dec 07 AP-GfK Poll: Obama approval rises postelection, most expect 2nd term economic improvement By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — A month after the bitterly fought election, President Barack Obama has his highest approval ratings since the killing of Osama bin Laden, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll, and more Americans say the nation is heading in the right direction now than at any time since the start of his first term. Obama’s approval rating stands at 57 percent, the highest since May 2011, when U.S. Navy SEALs killed the terror leader, and up 5 percentage points from before the election. And 42 percent say the country is on the right track, up from 35 percent in January 2009. A majority think it’s likely that the president will be able to improve the economy in his second term. ”Compared to the alternative, I’m more optimistic about government and the economy with him in office,” said Jack Reinholt, an independent from Bristol, R.I., who backed Obama in 2008 and again in 2012. “I feel he has the better path laid out.” Still, four years of partisan conflict in Washington have taken a toll on the president’s image. ”I’m less enthusiastic about him than the first time he was elected,” Reinholt added. Americans are divided on what kind of president Obama has been, with 37 percent saying he’s been above average or outstanding and 36 percent describing his tenure as below average or poor. Another quarter say he’s been just average. Obama held much stronger numbers on this measure at the start of his first term, with two-thirds expecting an above-average presidency. And the public’s take on Obama’s relative performance has bounced back and forth over his four years in office, moving higher following the death of bin Laden, after declining in the summer of 2010, a few months before the GOP took back control of the House. Looking ahead to Obama’s final four years, most Americans doubt he can reduce the federal budget deficit. But almost 7 in 10 say he will be able to implement the health care law passed in March 2010 and remove most troops from Afghanistan. And most think he’ll be able to improve the economy and boost race relations in his final term, though both those figures are down significantly from January 2009. About a quarter say the economy is in good shape in the new poll, similar to pre-election poll results, but optimism about the economy has dipped since before the election. In October, 52 percent of Americans said they expected the economy to get better in the next year; now, that stands at 40 percent. Among Republicans, the share saying the economy will improve in the coming year has dropped sharply since before the election, from 42 percent in October to 16 percent now. ”The economy, if left alone, will gradually improve because of our people wanting to better themselves and make more money,” said Bobby Jordan, 76, a Romney voter from Green Valley, Ariz. “They’re going to be doing things to improve their own position, which will collectively mean the economy will gradually get a little better. But (Obama’s) not doing anything to improve the economy.” Overall, the public gives Democrats the advantage on handling the economy, 45 percent saying they trust the president’s party to do a better job on it, 39 percent favoring Republicans. As Obama took office four years ago, Republicans were mostly optimistic about his chances for improving the economy, with nearly 7 in 10 saying it was likely the new president could improve it in his first four years in office. Now, just 21 percent of Republicans feel the next four years are that promising. Independents, too, have grown skeptical about Obama’s ability to turn around the economy. About three-quarters thought he could fix it in 2009; just a third do now. Those sharp partisan divides in expectations are represented in the president’s approval ratings. About 9 in 10 Democrats say they approve of the way Obama is handling his job, compared with just 2 in 10 Republicans. That gap approaches the 82-point partisan gap in George W. Bush’s approval ratings according to Gallup polling in December 2004. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 3 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,002 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups. ___ EDITOR’S NOTE — Jennifer Agiesta is director of polling for The Associated Press. ___ Associated Press News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on Obama and politics was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Nov. 29 to Dec. 3. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,002 adults. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Dec 05 AP-GfK Poll: Support for boosting taxes on rich; fewer now back cutting government services By ALAN FRAM and JENNIFER AGIESTA WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans prefer letting tax cuts expire for the country’s top earners, as President Barack Obama insists, while support has declined for cutting government services to curb budget deficits, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows. Fewer than half the Republicans polled favor continuing the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy. There’s also a reluctance to trim Social Security, Medicare or defense programs, three of the biggest drivers of federal spending, the survey released Wednesday found. The results could strengthen Obama’s hand in his fiscal cliff duel with Republicans, in which he wants to raise taxes on the rich and cut spending by less than the GOP wants. As Obama and Republicans joust over ways to avoid tumbling over the cliff when the new year begins, the poll offers scant evidence that the public is willing to sacrifice much when it comes to specific cuts in the name of budget austerity. Social Security, Medicare and defense account for just over half the $3.8 trillion the government is projected to spend this year. Voters typically voice support for deficit reduction but shy away from painful, detailed cuts to achieve it. In the poll, 48 percent said tax cuts should expire in January on earnings over $250,000 but continue for lower incomes. An additional 32 percent said the tax cuts should continue for everybody, which has been the view of Republican lawmakers who say raising taxes on the wealthy would squelch their ability to create jobs. Thirteen percent said the tax cuts dating back to 2001 and 2003 should end for all. ”If you are fortunate and have some extra, you need to help those who don’t,” said Robin Keck, 49, of Golden Valley, Minn., who owns a framing business and supports ending tax cuts for the rich. “I believe people who have more money generally find more uses for it than putting other people to work.” A November 2010 AP-CNBC poll showed similar support for allowing the cuts to expire for people with the largest incomes. Polling earlier in that year had shown a preference for continuing the cuts for everyone, including the wealthy. Support for renewing the tax cuts for everyone has ebbed among Republicans since 2010, dropping from a high of 74 percent just after the GOP recaptured the House in that year’s elections to 48 percent now. Among Democrats, support for allowing tax cuts for the wealthy to expire was a robust 61 percent, though down slightly from two years ago. Unless the two parties strike a deal, the new year will begin with the triggering of broad spending cuts plus tax boosts on almost every taxpayer. Economists warn that the brew of sharp deficit cuts — nicknamed the fiscal cliff — could revive the recession. The battle is occurring when the public trusts the two parties about equally to handle the deficits. Democrats have a slight edge on handling taxes but enjoy a much bigger preference when it comes to addressing Medicare, according to the poll. Obama was re-elected last month insisting that taxes be raised on the rich as their contribution to deficit reduction. He has proposed continuing Bush-era tax cuts for all but the country’s top earners, letting taxes rise on income exceeding $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for couples. Though Republican lawmakers have long opposed raising taxes on the highest earners, GOP leaders have proposed curbing unspecified tax deductions to avert the fiscal cliff, raising revenue that House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, says could come from upper-income people. The new poll found that, by 46 percent to 30 percent, more favor cutting government services to raising taxes to tackle budget deficits. That sentiment echoes the view of the GOP, which has emphasized spending cuts during four years of budget battles with Obama. Yet support for trimming government services has dropped in AP-GfK polls. It was 56 percent last February and 62 percent in March 2011. Still, Ray Wilkins, 58, of Belton, Mo., a warehouse worker, said, “The government’s gotten too big. The federal government tries to do just about everything.” Thirteen percent said budget balancing efforts should focus equally on service cuts and higher taxes, more than doubling that sentiment in previous polls. When it comes to specifics, people are leery. By 48 percent to 40 percent, more oppose proposals to gradually raise the eligibility age for Medicare from 65. Only 3 in 10 support slowing the growth of annual Social Security benefits. And more people oppose than favor cutting military spending. Sentiments about culling savings from Social Security and Medicare were similar among Democrats and Republicans. The strongest opposition to raising the Medicare eligibility age came from people ages 30 to 64. People 50 to 64 were most opposed to slowing the growth of Social Security benefits. Just over half of Democrats favor cutting defense; two-thirds of Republicans oppose it. People were about evenly split over an idea voiced by defeated GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney to put a dollar limit on taxpayers’ deductions. Another idea — ending the tax deduction for home mortgage interest in exchange for lower income tax rates — was favored 42 percent to 33 percent, slightly less support than the proposal received in 2010. Homeowners were closely divided over the proposal. Just over half the poll respondents say they doubt Obama will be able to reduce budget deficits during his remaining four years in office. In his first days in office in 2009, more people than not thought he would be able to do so. The poll found little change in the nation’s partisan makeup after the contentious presidential election campaign, with 33 percent saying they consider themselves Democrats, 23 percent Republicans and 27 percent independents. That’s about the same as in AP-GfK polling over the past six months. The Associated Press-GfK poll was conducted Nov. 29 to Dec. 3 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,002 adults nationwide. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. ___ AP news survey specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on Congress and the budget was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Nov. 29 to Dec. 3. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,002 adults. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Oct 31 Who would end Washington’s political gridlock? Romney has best shot, poll respondents suggest By CONNIE CASS and JENNIFER AGIESTA WASHINGTON (AP) — Just about everybody agrees Washington is a gridlocked mess. But who’s the man to fix it? After two years of brawling and brinkmanship between President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans, more voters trust Mitt Romney to break the stalemate, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows. Romney’s message — a vote for Obama is a vote for more gridlock — seems to be getting through. Almost half of likely voters, 47 percent, think the Republican challenger would be better at ending the logjam, compared with 37 percent for Obama. With the race charging into its final week, Romney is pushing that idea. He increasingly portrays himself as a get-things-done, work-with-everybody pragmatist, in hopes of convincing independent voters that he can overcome Washington’s bitter partisanship. The AP-GfK poll shows the race in a virtual dead heat, with Romney at 47 percent to Obama’s 45 percent, a difference within the margin of sampling error. At a rally Wednesday in Coral Gables, Fla., Romney recounted how he worked with the Democratic-led Legislature as governor of Massachusetts and insisted he would find common ground with Democrats in Washington, too: “We can’t change course in America if we keep attacking each other. We’ve got to come together and get America on track again.” Obama made his own show of bipartisanship Wednesday, touring superstorm Sandy devastation alongside Republican Gov. Chris Christie in New Jersey. A major Romney supporter, Christie has been praising Obama’s “outstanding” response to the natural disaster. Obama counters the Washington gridlock question by predicting that Republican lawmakers focused on opposing his re-election will become more cooperative once he wins a second term and becomes ineligible to run again. Referring to the top Republicans in Congress, Obama joked he would “wash John Boehner’s car” or “walk Mitch McConnell’s dog” to help get a federal deficit-cutting deal. Obama also argues that Romney is more conservative these days than when he was elected governor and will find his newer ideas don’t go down easily with Senate Democrats. For example, Romney, who worked with legislators to pass a health care overhaul in Massachusetts, has vowed to repeal the Democrats’ similar national health care law. In the AP-GfK poll, about 1 out of 6 likely voters didn’t take a side on the gridlock issue: 6 percent weren’t sure who would do a better job at getting Washington moving and 10 percent didn’t trust either man to break the impasse among congressional partisans. “They all need to be taken by the ear by a grandma,” voter Margaret Delaney, 65, said in frustration. She lives in Janesville, Wis., the hometown of Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, and she’s leaning toward voting for the GOP ticket. But when it comes to ending gridlock, Delaney thinks it may not matter whether Romney or Obama is president. “I’m not sure either of them can do it,” she said. A political standoff last year came close to forcing the government to default on its bills and led Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the United States’ credit rating. Over the past two years, a Congress split between Republican and Democratic leadership posted one of the least productive sessions in history. When lawmakers return after Election Day for a lame-duck session, they need to work together with Obama to solve some festering troubles, including the “fiscal cliff” — a looming combination of higher taxes and spending cuts that could trigger another recession if Congress doesn’t find a resolution. If re-elected, Obama will almost certainly face another two years or more of divided government. Polling in the states suggests Republicans are likely to keep the control of the U.S. House that they won in 2010. And tea partyers who stymied efforts to reach a deficit-reduction deal seem certain to remain a substantial presence. There’s a good chance that a President Romney would face a split Congress, as well. Democrats appear to have an edge in holding onto their Senate majority, especially if the presidential race remains close. At least a dozen of the 33 Senate races remain competitive, making the overall outcome tough to predict. Obama also likes to remind Democrats and like-minded independent voters that he serves as a check on congressional Republicans. The president suggests Romney would be unwilling to stand up to “the more extreme parts of his party.” Leigh Westholm of Pensacola, Fla., said that’s why she supports Obama’s re-election even though she doesn’t think he will be able to make peace with House Republicans. “It takes two to tango and he has tried and tried for four years,” Westholm said. “It might be better for Romney, but I don’t agree with his views.” But Romney supporter Gary Bivins, a 57-year-old West Chester, Ohio, retiree volunteering in his first presidential campaign, says don’t blame Congress. A president needs the ability to lead, he said, and “I think Obama has shown no skill in that area.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 19-23 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,186 adults nationwide, including 839 likely voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, for likely voters it is 4.2 points. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writers Todd Richmond in Wisconsin, Melissa Nelson-Gabriel in Pensacola, Dan Sewell in Cincinnati and Kasie Hunt in Florida contributed to this report. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . ___ Follow Connie Cass on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/ConnieCass Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/JennAgiesta How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on gridlock in Washington was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 19-23. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,186 adults, including 1,041 registered voters and 839 likely voters. Interviews were conducted with 713 respondents on landline telephones and 473 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://surveys.ap.org and http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Oct 28 AP-GfK Poll: Microsoft’s radical redesign of Windows hasn’t created much buzz among PC, tablet buyers By MICHAEL LIEDTKE, AP Technology Writer SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Microsoft bills Windows 8 as a “re-imagining” of the personal computer market’s dominant operating system, but the company still has a lot of work to do before the makeover captures the imagination of most consumers, based on the results of a recent poll by The Associated Press and GfK. The phone survey of nearly 1,200 adults in the U.S. found 52 percent hadn’t even heard of Windows 8 leading up to Friday’s release of the redesigned software. Among the people who knew something about the new operating system, 61 percent had little or no interest in buying a new laptop or desktop computer running on Windows 8, according to the poll. And only about a third of people who’ve heard about the new system believe it will be an improvement (35 percent). Chris Dionne of Waterbury, Conn., falls into that camp. The 43-year-old engineer had already seen Windows 8 and it didn’t persuade him to abandon or upgrade his Hewlett-Packard laptop running on Windows 7, the previous version of the operating system released in 2009. ”I am not real thrilled they are changing things around,” Dionne said. “Windows 7 does everything I want it to. Where is the return on my investment to learn a new OS?” Microsoft usually releases a new version of Windows every two or three years, but it’s different this time around. Windows 8 is the most radical redesign of the operating system since 1995 and some analysts consider the software to be Microsoft’s most important product since co-founder Bill Gates won the contract to build an operating system for IBM Corp.’s first personal computer in 1981. Microsoft is hoping the way Windows 8 looks and operates will appeal to the growing number of people embracing the convenience of smartphones and tablets. The consumer ambivalence, however, was even more pronounced when it came to Microsoft’s new tablet computer, Surface, which was built to show off Windows 8′s versatility. Sixty-nine percent of the poll’s respondents expressed little or no interest in buying a Surface, which Microsoft is hoping will siphon sales from Apple Inc.’s pioneering iPad and other popular tablets such as Amazon.com Inc.’s Kindle Fire and Google Inc.’s Nexus 7. The results indicate Microsoft still has work to do to create a bigger buzz about Windows 8 and help consumers understand the new operating system’s benefits, even though the company provided several previews of the software at various stages in the final 13 month leading to its release. But the information apparently resonated mostly with industry analysts, reporters, technology blogs and gadget geeks. Microsoft is in the early stages of an estimated $1 billion marketing campaign that will include a siege of television commercials to promote Windows 8 to a wider audience. That still might not be enough to sway longtime Windows users such as Mary Sweeten. She is 75, and not eager to learn the nuances of a new operating system. She, too, is comfortable with her current desktop computer running on Windows 7. ”I am not technologically savvy like all these young kids,” said Sweeten, who lives in Camdenton, Mo. “I like something I am used to and can get around on without too much trouble. Sometimes when you get these new (systems), you wish you could go back to the old one.” Windows 8 represents Microsoft’s attempt to adapt to a technological shift that is empowering more people to use smartphones and tablets to surf the Web and handle other simple computing tasks. The revamped system can be controlled by touching a device’s display screen and greets users with a mosaic of tiles featuring an array of dynamic applications instead of the old start menu and desktop tiles. In an effort to protect its still-lucrative PC franchise, Microsoft designed Windows 8 so it can still be switched into a desktop mode that relies on a keyboard and mouse for commands. Microsoft felt it had to gamble on a radical redesign to fend off the competitive threats posed by Apple, which has emerged as the world’s most valuable company on the strength of its iPhone and iPad. Google Inc. is a threat, too. It has used its 4-year-old Android operating system to become an influential force in the mobile computing movement. Despite the growing popularity of smartphones, Microsoft remains deeply entrenched in people’s lives. The poll found 80 percent of respondents with personal computers in their homes relied on earlier versions of Windows versus only 12 percent that operating on Apple’s Mac system. Windows is even more widely used in offices, but 90 percent of companies relying on the operating system are expected hold off on switching to the new operating system through 2014, according to a study by the research firm Gartner Inc. Jim Beske of West Fargo, N.D., won’t be waiting long to install Windows 8 on the home computer he bought a year ago. He already has seen how Windows 8 works in his job as a network engineer, and he considers it to be a nice improvement. ”They have made it much simpler,” Beske, 43, said. “I don’t know about the tiling so much; that’s something I think younger people will like more. But once people get in front of it, I think they will understand it.” Windows 8 also could appeal to consumers who still don’t own a home computer. The AP-GfK survey found 22 percent of all adults fall into this category, including 30 percent with households whose incomes fall below $50,000 annually. Beske is among a growing group who use both Microsoft and Apple products. Besides his Windows computer, he also loves his iPad. Most survey respondents liked both Apple and Microsoft. Fifty-nine percent said they had favorable impressions of Apple versus 58 percent for Microsoft. Tequila Cronk of Herington, Kan., is more of a Microsoft fan because she considers Apple’s prices to be a “rip-off.” At the same time, she can’t justify buying a Windows 8 computer when her desktop and laptop computers at home are running fine on the earlier versions of the system. ”We will upgrade, but I am not going to rush out and buy a new computer just because it’s got a different operating system,” Cronk, 26, said. Windows 8′s release came at a perfect time for Hector Gonzalez of Kissimmee, Fla. He is so frustrated with the performance of his 3-year-old laptop running on Windows 7 that he is considering buying a MacBook laptop. But now he plans to check out the array of new Windows 8 laptops and may even consider buying a Surface tablet to supplement the iPad that he bought for his teenage daughters. ”Anything that is new, it’s worth taking a look at,” Gonzalez, 35, said. “That’s the way technology is. There is always something new to replace everything else.” ___ Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll on Windows 8 was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on Windows 8 was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 19-23. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,186 adults. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Oct 26 AP-GfK Poll: Why can’t they decide? Some voters just tuning in, some still mulling, others not that into it By CONNIE CASS and JENNIFER AGIESTA WASHINGTON (AP) — Who are these people who still can’t make up their minds? They’re undecided voters like Kelly Cox, who spends his days repairing the big rigs that haul central California’s walnuts, grapes, milk and more across America. He doesn’t put much faith in either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. But he figures he’s got plenty of time — a little more than a week — to settle on one of them before Nov. 6. And he definitely does plan to vote. “I’ll do some online research,” said Cox, co-owner of a Delhi, Calif., truck repair shop. “I don’t have time to watch presidential debates because it’s a lot of garbage anyway. They’re not asking the questions that the people want to hear.” About 5 percent of Americans with solid plans to vote have yet to pick their presidential candidate, according to a new AP-GfK poll. When you add in those who lean only tentatively toward their choice or won’t declare a favorite, about 16 percent of likely voters look ripe for persuasion. That’s about the same as a month ago. In a super-tight race, undecided voters have taken on almost mythic stature. Their questions at the town hall-style debate are parsed. Campaign techies wade through data to find them. The president dialed up 9,000 of them for an Air Force One conference call as he flew to Los Angeles this week. But the undecided also endure Twitter sniping and late-night TV ribbing. They’re derided as uninformed nincompoops who don’t merit the power they wield. As David Letterman put it: “You’re idiots! Make up your mind!” Do these wafflers, ruminators and procrastinators deserve coddling — or scorn? Are they just misunderstood? A look at who they are and what they’re waiting for: ___ THEY’RE NOT BLANK SLATES Two-thirds of persuadable voters have an established party preference, the AP-GfK poll shows. They’re roughly divided between those who call themselves Democrats or lean that way and those who are Republicans or lean to that side. So why not just plan to vote with their party? “They are really a little bit torn,” said Lynn Vavreck, an associate professor of political science at the University of California, Los Angeles. “They may have some issue positions that are counter to their party, or they’re not sure how they stand on some things.” Nancy Hoang, a University of Minnesota freshman studying mathematics, considers herself a fiscal conservative and leans Republican. Yet she vacillated because she agrees with the Democrats’ support for gay marriage and opposition to voter ID laws. “I could have gone either way,” said Hoang, 18. Not until after the final debate Monday did she decide: Her first-ever presidential vote will go to Romney. Most of these undecided voters will come home to their favored party by Election Day, predicts Vavreck, who studies an ongoing survey of registered voters as well as trends from past elections. ___ STILL, A GOOD CHUNK ARE INDEPENDENTS About 30 percent of persuadable voters say they’re political independents. That’s three times the presence of independents — just 8 percent — among likely voters who have decided who they’ll vote for, according to the AP-GfK poll. In an increasingly polarized America, they stand out. Robert Dohrenburg, a small business owner in McAllen, Texas, voted for Republicans Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, but not for Bush’s son, George W. He backed Obama in 2008, then had second thoughts this year. Dohrenburg, 56, watched all three presidential debates before making up his mind to stick with Obama, in part because Romney “says one thing today and another thing tomorrow.” He wishes Ron Paul had won the Republican nomination. “I’m a very strong independent,” he said. “I choose the best candidate.” ___ ARE THEY EVEN PAYING ATTENTION? Professors have a euphemism: low-information voters. The bulk of registered voters who are still undecided fall into that group, researchers say. “They’re basically not that interested in politics,” Vavreck said. “They pay less attention to news in general.” Her image of the typical undecided American, based on her research: “the single mom with a couple of kids who just doesn’t have time to be attuned to politics but feels like it’s her civic duty to vote, and may or may not show up at the polls.” Yet the still-deciding who are committed to voting don’t see themselves as out of touch. In the AP-GfK poll, 85 percent of the persuadables said they have a “great deal” or “quite a bit” of interest in following the campaign, almost as high as among other likely voters. Rita Kirk, a communications professor at Southern Methodist University, seeks out these involved-but-undecided voters in swing counties of states with close presidential contests. She gathered the groups that recorded their live reactions on CNN during the debates. They are following the race, she insists. “They know that they’re in a county that’s going to make a difference,” Kirk said. “They’re wanting to make a good choice, and they kind of feel the weight and gravitas of that.” ___ SO WHAT DO THEY THINK? They’re of two minds. Persuadable voters are more likely to trust Romney to do a better job handling the economy and the federal budget deficit, the AP-GfK poll shows. And they’re about as comfortable with Romney as they are with Obama on foreign policy. They are more likely to say Obama has a clear vision for the future, however. They tend to say he understands the problems of people like them better than Romney does. They also give Obama a broad advantage on making the right decision on women’s issues. They’re worried about the future. Only 3 in 10 persuadable voters think the economy will improve in the coming year, compared with 6 in 10 decided voters. “I’m not sure that either candidate is going to be able to correct the issues,” said Cox, 43, who watched California’s Central Valley suffer through recession and drought. “I’d like to get the jobs back in the United States. I’d like to quit owing China everything. Put the farmers back to work.” ___ WHAT’S TAKING THEM SO LONG? Some see virtue in refusing to rush. Victoria Cook, a 27-year-old psychology student at Arapahoe Community College near Denver, leans toward Obama. But she stood in line to see Romney and Ryan at a rally with rocker Kid Rock this week. “I don’t want it to get to the point where you just write off the other guys right away,” Cook said as she waited. “So I’ll listen to what they have to say.” Professor Kirk said many undecided voters are so annoyed by months of TV commercials and punditry and news coverage that they just tune it all out until Election Day nears. “They want to pay attention at the time they’re ready to make a choice,” she said. “It’s like someone buying a car. That’s when they start looking at the consumer magazines and all the attributes and how many airbags do the different models have. Not months in advance.” ___ WILL THEY DECIDE THIS ELECTION? It’s possible. “That small group of people can make a difference if the vast majority of them swing in one direction,” said Rutgers University political science Professor Richard Lau, who studies how voters decide. But that would be unusual. Late deciders tend to be divided, not vote as a block — unless they are swept up in a bigger wave, Lau said. In 1980, for example, October polls showed President Jimmy Carter in a tight race with Ronald Reagan. “It was very close up until the last few days and somehow everybody just decided, ‘Enough. We’re going to change courses here,’” Lau said. “Usually what happens is that the independent voters change in the direction that somehow the nature of the times is already going.” Still, an advantage among procrastinators could swing the race in a hotly contested state. In the last two presidential elections, about 1 in 10 voters surveyed as they left polling places said they’d settled on their candidate within the previous week. About 5 percent decided on Election Day. No word on how many made up their minds while standing in the voting booth. ___ Associated Press News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius in Washington and Associated Press writer Philip Elliott in Denver contributed to this report. ___ Follow Connie Cass on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/ConnieCass Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/JennAgiesta How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on undecided and persuadable voters was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 19-23. It was based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,186 adults, including 1,041 registered voters and 839 likely voters. Interviews were conducted with 713 respondents on landline telephones and 473 on cellular phones. One hundred thirty-one likely voters were persuadable: They did not initially choose a candidate when asked or did initially choose a candidate but said they might change their minds. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflected the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for registered voters, plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters and plus or minus 10.6 percentage points for persuadable voters. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Oct 25 AP-GfK poll: Romney erases Obama advantage among women while Obama gains ground with men By NANCY BENAC and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — What gender gap? Less than two weeks out from Election Day, Republican Mitt Romney has erased President Barack Obama’s 16-point advantage among women, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. And the president, in turn, has largely eliminated Romney’s edge among men. Those churning gender dynamics leave the presidential race still a virtual dead heat, with Romney favored by 47 percent of likely voters and Obama by 45 percent, a result within the poll’s margin of sampling error, the survey shows. After a commanding first debate performance and a generally good month, Romney has gained ground with Americans on a number of important fronts, including their confidence in how he would handle the economy and their impressions of his ability to understand their problems. At the same time, expectations that Obama will be re-elected have slipped: Half of voters now expect the president to win a second term, down from 55 percent a month earlier. For all of the good news for Republicans, however, what matters most in the election endgame is Romney’s standing in the handful of states whose electoral votes still are up for grabs. And polls in a number of those battleground states still appear to favor Obama. As the election nears, Romney has been playing down social issues and trying to project a more moderate stance on matters such as abortion in an effort to court female voters. The AP-GfK poll, taken Friday through Tuesday, shows Romney pulling even with Obama among women at 47-47 after lagging by 16 points a month earlier. But now his campaign is grappling with the fallout from a comment by a Romney-endorsed Senate candidate in Indiana, who said that when a woman becomes pregnant during a rape “that’s something God intended.” Romney quickly distanced himself from the remark by Republican Richard Mourdock. But Obama campaign spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the incident was “a reminder that a Republican Congress working with a Republican President Mitt Romney would feel that women should not be able to make choices about their own health care.” A renewed focus on social issues would be an unwelcome development for Romney: Among female likely voters, 55 percent say Obama would make the right decisions on women’s issues, compared with 41 percent who think Romney would. Romney’s pitch to women has been focused squarely on the economy, making the case that what women want most is to ensure their families and their country are on a solid financial footing. The poll shows that message appears to be taking root. A month ago, women favored Obama over Romney on the economy 56 percent to 40 percent. Now, the split has shifted to 49 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama. Similarly, Obama’s lead among women as the candidate who better understands the people’s problems has narrowed considerably, from a 58-36 Obama advantage last month to a 50-43 Obama edge now. Monica Jensen, a 55-year-old independent from Mobile, Ala., says she voted for Obama in 2008 but will shift her vote to Romney this time, largely because of the economy. ”I’m ready for a change,” she said. “I want to see the economy go in a different direction.” Ginny Lewis, a Democrat and 72-year-old retired district attorney from Princeton, Ky., says she’ll vote for Romney because “I’m tired of the Republicans blaming all the debt on Democrats, so let them take over and see what they do.” Not that she’s optimistic about how that will turn out, though. “I think things will get worse before they get better,” she said. Lindsey Hornbaker, a 25-year-old graduate student and nanny, hasn’t been swayed by Romney’s charm offensive. Hornbaker, interviewed Wednesday in Davenport, Iowa, where she was attending an Obama rally, said Romney can tweak his tone but not what she sees as a record focused far more on top income earners and out of touch with most working families. ”I heard him go out of his way to sound so moderate during the debate,” she said. “And I thought: ‘Who is this? Where did this come from?’ He may sound like he’s focused on the middle class. But where’s the record?” Obama, meanwhile, has been working to shore up his support among men, who tend to be more Republican than women. In the 2008 election, men broke 49 percent for Obama to 48 percent for John McCain, even though Obama got 53 percent of the vote overall. The president’s job approval ratings among men have tended to fall below his ratings among women throughout his first term. A month ago, Romney’s advantage among men was 13 percentage points. Now, it’s down to 5 points, with most of the shift toward Obama coming among unmarried men. Obama’s election chances hinge on turning out voters like Jon Gerton, a disabled construction worker from Jonesboro, Ark. Gerton’s a staunch Obama supporter — but he didn’t vote in 2008. ”It takes longer than four years to get things to the point where things are going better,” Gerton said. “Four years, it’s not very long.” There has been a gender gap in every presidential election since 1980. In 2008, women were 7 percentage points more likely than men to vote for Obama. Overall, people are significantly more optimistic about the economy and unemployment in the coming year than they have been at any point in AP-GfK polling going back to March 2011, when the poll first started asking those questions. And likely voters are even more optimistic than other adults. Nearly six in 10 likely voters think the economy will improve in the next year, up from 46 percent last month. And 42 percent think the number of unemployed Americans will drop in the next year, up from 32 percent in September. Count Chrysta Walker, of Cedar Lake, Ind., among the voters who are sticking with Obama because they think he’s got the right solutions for the fragile economy. ”He’s got the middle class at heart,” says the 58-year-old Walker. On the economy, she says, Obama “did as well as could be expected because he didn’t get a lot of cooperation.” David Bierwirth, who owns an autograph sales business in Las Vegas, turned out at a Romney rally in Henderson this week to show his support for the GOP nominee. To Bierwirth, his vote for Romney is all about the economy. ”I want people back to work,” he says, “because then they will buy my products.” The Associated Press-GfK poll was conducted Oct. 19-23 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,186 adults nationwide, including 839 likely voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4.2 points. __ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Stacy A. Anderson in Washington, Thomas Beaumont in Davenport, Iowa, and Ken Ritter in Henderson, Nev., contributed to this report. ___ Follow Nancy Benac on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/nbenac Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta How the AP-GfK Poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK poll on the 2012 presidential election and politics was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 19-23. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,186 adults, including 1,041 registered voters and 839 likely voters. Interviews were conducted with 713 respondents on landline telephones and 473 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for likely voters. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Sep 27 AP-NCC Poll: A third of the public fears police use of drones for surveillance will erode their privacy By JOAN LOWY, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — More than a third of Americans worry their privacy will suffer if drones like those used to spy on U.S. enemies overseas become the latest police tool for tracking suspected criminals at home, according to an Associated Press-National Constitution Center poll. Congress has directed the Federal Aviation Administration to come up with safety regulations that will clear the way for routine domestic use of unmanned aircraft within the next three years. The government is under pressure from a wide range of interests to open U.S. skies to drones. Oil companies want them to monitor pipelines. Environmentalists want them to count sea lions on remote islands. Farmers want them to fly over crops with sensors that can detect which fields are wet and which need watering. They’re already being used to help fight forest fires. And the list goes on. Manufacturers are also keen to cash in on what they expect to be a burgeoning new drone market. Government and commercial drone-related expenditures are forecast to total $89 billion worldwide over the next decade. On the leading edge of that new market are state and local police departments, who say that in many cases drones are cheaper, more practical and more effective than manned aircraft. Most of them would be small drones, generally weighing less than 55 pounds. They could be used, for example, to search for missing children or to scout a location ahead of a SWAT team. But privacy advocates caution that drones equipped with powerful cameras, including the latest infrared cameras that can “see” through walls, listening devices and other information-gathering technology raise the specter of a surveillance society in which the activities of ordinary citizens are monitored and recorded by the authorities. Nearly half the public, 44 percent, supports allowing police forces inside the U.S. to use drones to assist police work, but a significant minority — 36 percent — say they “strongly oppose” or “somewhat oppose” police use of drones, according to a survey last month. When asked if they were concerned that police departments’ use of drones for surveillance might cause them to lose privacy, 35 percent of respondents said they were “extremely concerned” or “very concerned.” An almost identical share, 36 percent, said they were “not too concerned” or “not concerned at all.” Twenty-four percent fell in the middle, saying they were “somewhat concerned” about a potential loss of personal privacy. David Eisner, president and CEO of the constitution center in Philadelphia, said he was surprised by the level of support for police use of drones. “I had assumed that the idea that American police would be using the same technology that our military is using in Afghanistan would garner an almost hysterical response,” Eisner said. Support for drone use “shows that people are feeling less physically secure than they’d like to because they are willing to accept fairly extreme police action to improve that security.” One poll respondent who said he has deep reservations about police use of drones was Tim Johnson, 55, a Houston real estate agent. He said he fears the data they gather will be misused, especially by other government agencies. It is possible government officials might use the information to create profiles of political enemies, he said. Pointing to the growing use of traffic cameras and the Google’s mapping programs, Johnson said he sees police use of drones as an extension of technology trends that are already eroding privacy. “I Googled my house,” Johnson said. “There’s my car sitting in the driveway —you can see the license plate number. And my living room picture window, you can see right into my living room. You can see my pictures on the wall. If I had been standing there in my underwear you could see me in my underwear.” Google says it tries to ensure privacy by blurring parts of images in its Street View feature. “This information — there is just too much of it,” Johnson said. “I don’t support any of it.” But Sheana Buchanan, 49, of Apple Valley, Calif., said she had no qualms about police using drones. “I figure if you’re doing something wrong, then you should be concerned about it,” Buchanan said. “But if you’re a law-abiding citizen, if you’re concerned about safety … and it’s going to help catch the bad guys, have at it.” There was a gender gap in the poll, with men were more concerned about a loss of privacy if police start using drones than women — 40 percent to 30 percent. There was an even wider gap between white and black respondents, with 48 percent of blacks strongly concerned about a loss of privacy compared to 32 percent of whites. But the poll found no significant difference between Democrats and Republicans on the issue. Protecting privacy has long been an issue that resonates on both the political left and the right, said Jay Stanley, an American Civil Liberties Union senior policy analyst. He pointed to several bills that were introduced this year in Congress by Democratic and Republican lawmakers to prevent drones from being used in a manner that jeopardizes privacy. “The awareness of drones and their privacy implications has really reached the American public,” Stanley said. “This is a technology that people weren’t thinking about at all or hadn’t heard much about at all just a couple of years ago.” Responding to public concern, a drone industry trade group and the International Association of Police Chiefs have separately released voluntary guidelines for drone use in recent months. “A lot of the public doesn’t understand how the technology is being used,” said Gretchen West, vice president of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International. “Law enforcement use (drones) to do the same thing they’ve used manned aircraft for years, it’s just that (drones) are more affordable and usually a more efficient option.” The National Constitution Center is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that operates a Philadelphia museum and other educational programs about the Constitution. The AP-NCC Poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 16-20, using landline and cellphone interviews with 1,006 randomly chosen adults. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. ___ Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius on contributed to this report. ___ Follow Joan Lowy at http://www.twitter.com/AP_Joan_Lowy ___ Online: Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com National Constitution Center: http://constitutioncenter.org/ How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-National Constitution Center Poll on privacy and drones was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,006 adults. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 402 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Sep 26 AP-GfK Poll: Most say Obama’s health care law will be implemented; but 7 in 10 expect changes By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — They may not like it, but they don’t see it going away. About 7 in 10 Americans think President Barack Obama’s health care law will go fully into effect with some changes, ranging from minor to major alterations, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds. Just 12 percent say they expect the Affordable Care Act — “Obamacare” to dismissive opponents — to be repealed completely. The law — covering 30 million uninsured, requiring virtually every legal U.S. resident to carry health insurance and forbidding insurers from turning away the sick — remains as divisive as the day it passed more than two years ago. After surviving a Supreme Court challenge in June, its fate will probably be settled by the November election, with Republican Mitt Romney vowing to begin repealing it on Day One and Obama pledging to diligently carry it out. That’s what the candidates say. But the poll found Americans are converging on the idea that the overhaul will be part of their lives in some form, although probably not down to its last clause and comma. Forty-one percent said they expect it to be fully implemented with minor changes, while 31 percent said they expect to see it take effect with major changes. Only 11 percent said they think it will be implemented as passed. Americans also prefer that states have a strong say in carrying out the overhaul. The poll found that 63 percent want states to run new health insurance markets called “exchanges.” They would open for business in 2014, signing up individuals and small businesses for taxpayer-subsidized private coverage. With many GOP governors still on the sidelines, the federal government may wind up operating the exchanges in half or more of the states, an outcome only 32 percent of Americans want to see, according to the poll, which was developed with researchers from Stanford University and the University of Michigan. Finally, the poll found an enduring generation gap, with people 65 and older most likely to oppose the bill and those younger than 45 less likely to be against it. ”People are sort of averaging out the candidates’ positions,” said Harvard School of Public Health professor Robert Blendon, who tracks polling on health care issues. “The presidential candidates are saying there’s a stark choice, but when you ask the voters, they don’t believe that the whole bill will be repealed or implemented as it is today in law.” Republicans remain overwhelmingly opposed to the overhaul and in favor of repeal. But only 21 percent said they think that will actually come about. Romney supporter Toni Gardner, 69, a retired school system nurse from Louisville, Ky., said that until a few weeks ago she was sure her candidate fully supported repeal, as she does. But then Romney said in an interview there are a number of things he likes in the law that he would put into practice, including making sure that people with pre-existing medical problems can get coverage. The Romney campaign quickly qualified that, but the candidate’s statement still resonates. ”If Romney gets in, he’ll go with parts of it,” Gardner said, “and there are parts of that he won’t go with.” Gardner thinks expanding coverage will cost too much and may make it harder to get an appointment with a doctor. Besides, she doesn’t believe the government can handle the job. She’s covered by Medicare — a government-run health system — but says “that wasn’t a choice that I had.” At 26, Santa Monica, Calif., web developer Vyki Englert has only bare-bones health insurance coverage. Her parents, a preschool teacher and a self-employed photographer, are uninsured. Englert says she thinks the law will largely go into effect as passed. (Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 60 percent think it will be implemented with only minor changes or none at all.) Englert says that she supports guaranteeing coverage to people with health problems and that provisions such as broader coverage for birth control will help younger women such as her. ”I kind of see a day-to-day way where this law could benefit me,” she said. Englert says the health care law dovetails with a trend toward consumerism in her generation. Older Americans “don’t have the context of the young people,” she added. “They are looking more at the theoretical impact on the budget and the country.” Overall, the poll found Americans divided on the question of repeal, with neither side able to claim a majority. Forty-nine percent said the health care law should be repealed completely, while 44 percent said it should be implemented as written. The notion that the law will be implemented with changes, captured in the poll, mirrors a discussion going on behind the scenes in Washington, particularly among some Republicans. ”Whoever wins the election, the (health care law) is going to be modified,” Mark McClellan, who ran Medicare under former President George W. Bush, said in a recent interview. Congressional Republicans say if tax increases are on the table in a budget negotiation with a re-elected Obama next year, changes to the health care law — including possible delays in implementation — also must be considered. For now, White House officials refuse to be drawn in on that question. Some parts of the law already are in effect; its big coverage expansion for the uninsured doesn’t come until 2014. Public opinion about the law itself has barely budged since the summer of 2010, soon after it passed. At the time, 30 percent supported the law. It’s now 32 percent. And 40 percent opposed the overhaul. That’s now 36 percent. And misconceptions about the law that reigned two years ago continue to live on, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s widely debunked charge that it would create “death panels” to decide on care for the elderly and disabled. In 2010, 39 percent believed the law would set up committees to review individual medical records and decide who gets care paid for by the government. Forty-one percent currently hold that view, according to the poll. The poll asked people to say whether 18 different items were in the law or not and to rate how certain they were about their answers. Just 14 percent were right most of the time and sure of it. Still, knowledge about what the law actually does is growing. More people are aware of provisions that allow adult children to stay on their parents’ coverage until age 26, impose insurance mandates on individuals and businesses, and protect those with pre-existing medical conditions. The poll was conducted Aug. 3-13 and involved interviews with 1,334 randomly chosen adults nationwide. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The survey was conducted online by GfK using its KnowledgePanel sample, which first chose people for the study using randomly generated telephone numbers and home addresses. Once people were selected to participate, they were interviewed online. Participants without Internet access were provided it for free. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Sep 19 AP-GfK Poll: Obama job approval numbers back up above 50 percent, but race with Romney still tight By NANCY BENAC and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are feeling markedly better about the country’s future and about Barack Obama’s job performance, but the president’s re-election race against Republican Mitt Romney remains a neck-and-neck proposition as Election Day creeps ever closer, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Buoyed by good mojo coming out of last month’s national political conventions, Obama’s approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May, and the share of Americans who think the country is moving in the right direction is at its highest level since just after the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. Romney, his campaign knocked off-stride in recent weeks, has lost his pre-convention edge on the top issue of the campaign — the economy. The poll results vividly underscore the importance that turnout will play in determining the victor in Campaign 2012: Among all adults, Obama has a commanding lead, favored by 52 percent of Americans to just 37 percent for Romney. Yet among those most likely to vote, the race is drum tight. Obama is supported by 47 percent of likely voters and Romney by 46 percent, promising an all-out fight to the finish by the two campaigns to gin up enthusiasm among core supporters and dominate get-out-the-vote operations. That’s an area where Obama claimed a strong advantage in 2008 and Republicans reigned four years earlier. Americans have been increasingly focused on the presidential race since the two candidates barreled out of their summer conventions into the fall campaign: Nearly three-fourths of adults say they’re paying close attention now, up modestly from earlier in the summer. And with early voting scheduled to be under way in two dozen states by week’s end, just 17 percent of likely voters remain undecided or say that they might change their minds. Count Sandra Townsend, a 57-year-old retiree from Brookings, Ore., among the 84 percent of likely voters who say their decision in this campaign has been an easy one. “I like what Obama does,” she said flatly. Townsend, a Democrat, said she’ll watch the upcoming presidential debates closely but adds, “No, I’m not going to change my mind.” Sixty-eight-year-old Vicki Deakins, a Republican sizing up the race from Garland, Texas, is equally certain in her choice of Romney. But she exudes more enthusiasm for GOP running mate Paul Ryan than for Romney himself. “I don’t know that Romney knows how to state emphatically, with fire and passion and guts and all that other stuff, what he wants to do,” she says. “I don’t think he’ll be a great orator. But I do think he’ll get the job done.” Among those voters still making up their minds or open to changing their positions — the coveted bloc of “persuadable” voters — 56 percent see their choice this year as a hard decision. Twenty-three-year-old Devin Vinson of Starksville, Mass., says he’s waiting to hear more about the candidates’ positions on education, foreign policy and more. Vinson, a Republican, is leaning toward Obama but says the close race has him weighing his decision this time more carefully than four years ago, when his family persuaded him to back Republican John McCain. “That was my first time voting and I just didn’t really care about it back then,” he admits. The poll shows most Americans say they have a good idea of what each candidate would do if elected, and 59 percent who know a good deal about both men think Obama will win a second term. For all of the recent positive signs for Obama, the public still holds some sour opinions on the economy. Sixty-one percent of likely voters describe the economy as poor. Just over half think the economic outlook has gotten worse over the last four years. And 57 percent think unemployment will get worse or stay the same over the next four years. But Obama has made some gains on economic expectations, with growing numbers of voters anticipating things will get better in the coming year. Forty-eight percent of registered voters think things will get better, up from 41 percent before the conventions. L’Tonya Ford, a 42-year-old Democrat from Detroit, said that progress on the economy has been slower than she’d like but that all signs point to Romney making things worse. Obama’s “trying to do something,” she says. “Give him four more years and let him do what he’s doing.” Romney lost his pre-convention edge on the economy as his campaign was distracted by criticism of his hasty response to the Obama administration’s handling of the eruption of violence in Egypt and Libya last week and his failure to mention the war in Afghanistan or thank the troops in his prime-time convention speech. The two candidates run about even in the poll on who would best handle the economy or the federal budget deficit, but Obama has narrow advantages on protecting the country, social issues and health care. Just this week, after the poll was conducted, Romney has been getting flak for his caught-on-tape statement that he doesn’t worry about the 47 percent of the country that pays no income taxes and describes them as believing they are victims and dependent on government. Romney advisers say the remarks may dominate news coverage for a time but they dispute the notion that the comments will fundamentally change the election. “This has not been the best three weeks in the history of American politics for the Romney campaign,” allows GOP consultant Rich Galen. But he said the most significant trend is that the economy remains “a great weight around the ankles of Obama.” The deciding factor may well be turnout. “If turnout reverts to normal presidential patterns, then Obama’s likely to be in pretty big trouble,” Galen said. “If he can catch lightning in a bottle again, then he should be OK.” Democratic consultant Chris Lehane, meanwhile, zeroes in on the significance of Obama’s job approval rating edging back up above 50 percent. Fifty-two percent of likely voters approved of how Obama’s handling his job, as did 56 percent of all adults. Further, 42 percent of Americans think the country is heading in the right direction, up from figures in the low- to mid-30s over the summer. “If you were buying a stock and you were looking at the underlying trends, you would be putting your futures on Obama,” Lehane said. William Galston, a former Clinton administration official now at the Brookings Institution, said Obama’s rising job approval figure “has to be regarded as a good leading indicator.” “If that holds up, then his chances are better than they were a month ago, when his approval was stuck around 47 percent,” Galston said. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Sept. 13-17, 2012, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,512 adults nationwide, including 1,282 registered voters and 807 likely voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, for registered voters it is 3.4 percentage points and likely voters it is 4.3 percentage points. AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writers Stacy Anderson and Josh Lederman contributed to this report. _ Follow Nancy Benac on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/nbenac Follow Jennifer Agiesta at http://www.twitter.com/jennagiesta ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 presidential election and politics was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Sept. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,512 adults, including 1,282 registered voters and 807 likely voters. Interviews were conducted with 906 respondents on landline telephones and 606 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for likely voters. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Sep 15 AP-NCC Poll: Public wants to limit influence on elections by cash-rich outside interest groups By MARK SHERMAN, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans don’t like all the cash that’s going to super political action committees and other outside groups that are pouring millions of dollars into races for president and Congress. More than 8 in 10 Americans in a poll by The Associated Press and the National Constitution Center support limits on the amount of money given to groups that are trying to influence U.S. elections. But they might have to change the Constitution first. The Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in the Citizens United case removed limits on independent campaign spending by businesses and labor unions, calling it a constitutionally protected form of political speech. ”Corporate donations, I think that is one of the biggest problems today,” said Walter L. Cox Sr., 86, of Cleveland. “They are buying the White House. They are buying public office.” Cox, a Democrat, was one of many people in the poll who do not, in spite of the high court ruling, think corporate and union campaign spending should be unlimited. The strong support for limiting the amount of money in politics stood alongside another poll finding that shows Americans have a robust view of the right to free speech. Seventy-one percent of the 1,006 adults in the AP-NCC poll said people should have the right to say what they please, even if their positions are deeply offensive to others. The ringing endorsement of First Amendment freedoms matched the public’s view of the Constitution as an enduring document, even as Americans hold the institutions of government, other than the military, in very low regard. ”The Constitution is 225 years old and 70 percent of Americans continue to believe that it’s an enduring document that’s relevant today, even as they lose faith in some of the people who have been given their job descriptions by the Constitution,” said David Eisner, the constitution center’s chief executive officer. For the first time in the five years the poll has been conducted, more than 6 in 10 Americans favor giving same-sex couples the same government benefits as opposite-sex married couples. That’s an issue, in one form or another, the Supreme Court could take up in the term that begins Oct. 1. More than half of Americans support legal recognition of gay marriage, although that number is unchanged from a year ago. In the past three years, though, there has been both a significant uptick in support for gay marriage, from 46 percent to 53 percent, and a decline in opposition to it, from 53 percent to 42 percent. Loretta Hamburg, 68, of Woodland Hills, Calif., tried to explain why support for gay marriage lags behind backing for same-sex benefits. ”If they’ve been in a long relationship and lived together and if it’s a true relationship, long lasting, it would be OK to have the same rights,” Hamburg said. But she does not support a same-sex union because “it would open up a lot of other things, like a man wanting two or three wives. I believe in marriage. They could call it something else if they want to give it a different definition. But I don’t think it’s right and that’s what I feel.” The poll also found a slight increase in the share of Americans who say voting rights for minorities require legal protection, although the public is divided over whether such laws still are needed. Sixty percent of Democrats say those protections are still needed, compared with 40 percent of independents and 33 percent of Republicans. One potential influence was that the survey was conducted amid lawsuits and political rhetoric over the validity of voter identification laws in several states. The laws mainly have been backed by Republican lawmakers who say they want to combat voter fraud. Democrats, citing academic studies that found there is very little voter fraud, have called the laws thinly veiled attempts to make it harder for Democratic-leaning minority voters to cast ballots. Two areas in which there has been little change in public attitudes in spite of major events are gun control and President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul. No matter that the Supreme Court upheld the health law, nearly three-fourths of Americans say the government should not have the power to require people to buy health insurance or pay a penalty. It didn’t matter in the poll whether the penalty was described as a tax or a fine. The July 20 mass shooting at a suburban Denver movie theater that killed 12 people and wounded 58 others did not move opinion on gun rights, where 49 percent oppose gun control measures and 43 percent said limits on gun ownership would not infringe on the constitutional right to bear arms. Retired Army Col. Glenn Werther, 62, called the Colorado shootings a “horrible thing,” but said gun control is not the answer to curbing violence. “There are crazy people out there. How you monitor that, I have no idea,” said Werther, a resident of Broad Brook, Conn., and a member of the National Rifle Association. “People are going to get guns that should not have them.” The National Constitution Center is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that operates a Philadelphia museum and other educational programs about the Constitution. The AP-NCC Poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 16-20, using landline and cellphone interviews with 1,006 randomly chosen adults. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. ___ Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writer Stacy Anderson contributed to this report. ___ Online: Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com National Constitution Center: http://constitutioncenter.org/ How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-National Constitution Center Poll on constitutional issues was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,006 adults. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 402 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Sep 01 Sunny side up for the young and restless By CALVIN WOODWARD and ANN SANNER, Associated Press COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — He’s 30, between jobs, with $50,000 in student debt and no clear sense what the future holds. But Erik Santamaria, Ohio-born son of Salvadorans, has a pretty awesome attitude about his country, his life and the world of possibilities. “Maybe things won’t work out the way I want,” he says. “But, boy, I sure can’t complain about how things have worked out so far.” This is the sweet spot of American optimism, a trait that looms large in the nation’s history and imagination. To find it these days, talk to an immigrant, the child of one or, failing that, a young person of any background. That’s where the torch seems most likely to burn brightly. With anyone else, it’s hit or miss. For many, these times are a slog. That “shining city on a hill” from political mythology looks more like a huffing climb up a field filled with ticks. Public opinion researchers find handwringing at almost every turn, over a glum and nervous decade defined by terrorism, then war, then recession, then paltry economic recovery. Still, you aren’t seeing pessimism in the season of the political conventions. The Democrats, convening Tuesday in Charlotte, N.C., want to corner the franchise on happier tomorrows, just as the Republicans wanted at their convention this past week. The notion that America’s best days are ahead comes packaged and polished from the stage, cheered by delegates in goofy hats. But such platitudes probably won’t go far with Marie Holly, 54. On her lunch break in a mall just north of Columbus, Holly recounts a struggle to get by as a temporary floor designer at a department store, making one-third of the salary she once earned at a graphics-design firm that cut hours and wages before she quit in January to freelance. She firmly believes in the American Dream, but in the sense of dreaming it, not grasping it. “I’m not seeing anything to strive for, I guess,” she said. “I’m settling.” Polls sing the blues: — Nearly two-thirds lack confidence that life for today’s children will be better than it has been for today’s adults, according to an NBC-Wall Street Journal survey in May. — Half of registered voters do not see the U.S. as the shining city on a hill, meaning the example for other countries, though 45 percent do, according to a Fox News poll in June. — In April 2011, a USA Today-Gallup poll found that optimism that the next generation’s lives will be better than parents’ dropped to its lowest level since the question was asked in 1983. Only 42 percent thought so. Before then, majorities always believed their children would have a better life. — In a dramatic drop from the late 1990s and early 2000s, just over one-third were satisfied with the U.S. position in the world in a February Gallup poll, down from at least two-thirds in the months before and after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Younger people, though, typically see a rosier future than older generations. As long as that holds, optimism stays woven in the nation’s fabric. In an August Associated Press-Gfk poll, only about half said it’s likely that today’s youth will have a better standard of living than their parents. But optimism was the greatest among those who have the farthest to climb — those of modest to low income, and the young themselves. In the poll, 55 percent of those earning under $50,000 said it’s likely the next generation will do better; 58 percent of those under 35 expect to have a better life than their parents. So it seems to be with Santamaria. He possesses both the idealism of his recently completed college years and the belief, perhaps stirred by his immigrant parents, that this is a land of options. “Their dream for me would be picking the tallest building out here and making the most money,” he said, sitting on a picnic table outside a downtown Columbus market with friends, and gesturing to the cityscape. Before getting his English literature degree in June, he worked at the Limited Brands in Columbus, where he was responsible for communicating with managers and customs officers to make sure paperwork for overseas Bath & Body Works stores was properly handled. “I know people are really struggling out there,” he says. “But I looked for a few months and I ended up at the world headquarters of the Limited Brands, and I didn’t even have my degree yet. I mean, months. And yeah, they were stressful but when I look back, I mean, a few months and I ended up there and I didn’t even want to be there. I mean that’s unreal. That’s unreal opportunity.” Santamaria left that job and won’t be seeking work at the city’s tallest building, 41 stories housing state employees. He set his sights since growing up in Toledo on “being able to do something you really loved to do,” more than raking in riches. So he is moving to Pittsburgh to set up a nondenominational Christian church on the University of Pittsburgh campus. He won’t be getting paid but hopes to get a foot in the door at a counselor’s office and someday become an academic adviser and preacher. Kayla Ruffin, 17, from Sylvania, Ohio, gives voice, too, to the idea that it’s the young and restless who are sunny side up. “It’s really hard to get me in a bad mood,” she said during orientation for new students at Ohio State University, where she is a freshman. “I’m usually pretty excited to learn new things and meet new people.” She’s free of the burdens of college debt and likely to stay that way, not typical for many students. “My dad, he has it all figured out,” she said. “He’s been planning my tuition since I was like born. So he’s made it easy for me.” Ruffin will be studying aeronautical engineering and wants to design spaceships. “I just love everything that NASA does.” And if that doesn’t work, she said she’ll tap into the same design skills to make golf clubs. The February Gallup poll found that pessimism about life for the next generation deepened with age. Also, that the poor were more optimistic about tomorrow than the rich. However down Americans get about the country’s direction and what the future might hold, they tend to be more satisfied with their own lives. Carl Adler, 69, is one of those. A retired Lutheran minister, he said his family learned to live on modest means and, with Social Security benefits and his wife’s pension from years of teaching, “I’m wealthier now than I’ve ever been in my life.” Still, he said, “I think people my age are finding it difficult to be optimistic.” Does he believe the American dream is alive? “Oh boy, I don’t know. I think it will be possible for fewer people.” “I’m not sure what the American dream is, to be honest, anymore. … It seems like the middle class is disappearing.” This is more than an abstract thought for him. He’s giving part of his retirement income to his son, who is married with two young kids and hasn’t seen a raise in three years at the public college where he works in information technology. His daughter-in-law is in nursing school. Ohio is a battleground state, so the political opinions of people who are out and about in Columbus no doubt matter more to the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney campaigns than voters’ attitudes in the most dependable Democratic and Republican states. But do people here think actions in Washington affect their lives? The capital seems awfully far away. Optimism, or pessimism, may have roots closer to home. Adler’s sense of wealth comes not just from retirement money but from family gatherings that carry on a life-long musical tradition: “If all the family is together, we have 28 people playing horns,” he says. For Santamaria, too, joy isn’t derived from what happens inside the Washington Beltway. He says, “I don’t depend on any president for my happiness.” ___ Woodward reported from Washington. Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on prospects for the next generation was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,006 adults. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 402 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Aug 26 AP-GfK poll: Narrow majority supports raising taxes, retirement age to save Social Security By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans say go ahead and raise taxes if it will save Social Security benefits for future generations. And raise the retirement age, if you have to. Both options are preferable to cutting monthly benefits, even for people who are years away from applying for them. Those are the findings of a new Associated Press-GfK poll on public attitudes toward the nation’s largest federal program. Social Security is facing serious long-term financial problems. When given a choice on how to fix them, 53 percent of adults said they would rather raise taxes than cut benefits for future generations, according to the poll. Just 36 percent said they would cut benefits instead. The results were similar when people were asked whether they would rather raise the retirement age or cut monthly payments for future generations — 53 percent said they would raise the retirement age, while 35 percent said they would cut monthly payments. “Right now, it seems like we’re taxed so much, but if that would be the only way to go, I guess I’d have to be for it to preserve it,” said Marge Youngs, a 77-year-old widow from Toledo. “It’s extremely important to me. It’s most of my income.” Social Security is being hit by a wave of millions of retiring baby boomers, leaving relatively fewer workers to pay into the system. The trustees who oversee the massive retirement and disability program say Social Security’s trust funds will run out of money in 2033. At that point, Social Security will only collect enough tax revenue to pay 75 percent of benefits, unless Congress acts. Lawmakers from both political parties say there is a good chance Congress will address Social Security in the next year or two — if the White House takes the lead. Yet so far, Social Security has not played a big role in the presidential election. In previous polls, Democrats have typically scored better than Republicans on handling Social Security. But the AP-GfK poll shows Americans are closely divided on which presidential candidate they trust to handle the issue. Forty-seven percent said they trust President Barack Obama to do a better job on Social Security, and 44 percent said they trust his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney. The difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Charles McSwain, 69, of Philadelphia, said he trusts Obama because he thinks the president is more likely to stick up for the middle class. “He at least gives the appearance of trying to help people that aren’t super rich, and Romney doesn’t,” said McSwain, who works part time selling real estate. But Jeff Victory of Nashville, Tenn., worries that Obama doesn’t have the stomach to cut benefits to help rein in the program. “Barack has already shown he’s going to give anything free out to everyone he possibly can, so I’m going to have to go with Romney on that one,” said Victory, a 26-year-old electrician. Romney has said he favors gradually increasing the retirement age, but he opposes tax increases to shore up Social Security. For future generations, Romney would slow the growth of benefits “for those with higher incomes.” Obama hasn’t laid out a detailed plan for addressing Social Security. But during the 2008 campaign, he called for applying the Social Security payroll tax to wages above $250,000. It is now limited to wages below $110,100, a level that increases with inflation. Obama says any changes to Social Security should be done “without putting at risk current retirees, the most vulnerable or people with disabilities, without slashing benefits for future generations and without subjecting Americans’ guaranteed retirement income to the whims of the stock market.” Romney’s running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, has been a leading proponent in Congress of allowing workers to divert a portion of their Social Security taxes into personal investment accounts. Romney has not fully embraced the idea, but Democrats are using it to accuse Republicans of trying to privatize Social Security. Romney put Ryan on the ticket Aug. 11. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Aug. 16-20. About 56 million people get Social Security benefits. Monthly payments average $1,236 for retirees. The options for fixing Social Security fall into two broad categories — raising taxes or cutting benefits, or some combination of the two. But there are many options within each category. For example, raising the retirement age is a benefit cut for future generations, because they would have to wait longer to qualify for full benefits. Retirees now can qualify for full benefits at age 66, a threshold that is rising to 67 for people born in 1960 or later. In previous polls, most of the options for addressing Social Security scored poorly among the public, which helps explain why Congress hasn’t embraced them. But the AP-GfK poll forced people to make a choice: Raise taxes or cut benefits? Raise the retirement age or cut monthly payments? Democrats, Republicans and independents all favored raising the retirement age over cutting monthly payments. But there was a big divide on raising taxes. Sixty-five percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents supported higher taxes, compared with just 38 percent of Republicans. “Raising taxes, especially on the people that provide the jobs for us, is not an option because what you do there, you discourage promoting jobs,” said James Taylor, a 68-year-old retiree from Golden, Miss. But Juan Tellez, a 22-year-old college student in Gainesville, Fla., said he would accept higher taxes if it means preserving benefits, even though he’s not very confident Social Security will be around for his generation. “I think of Social Security as an investment, as a public investment almost, something more communal,” Tellez said. “I feel like I would want to invest in that.” About three-quarters of the public believe Social Security is an important issue, though there is no consensus about whether people will be able to rely on it throughout their retirement. Only 30 percent said it was very likely or extremely likely they will be able to rely on Social Security. Among people younger than 35, just 20 percent believe Social Security will provide income throughout their retirement, while 55 percent of people 65 and older said the same. “I’m not planning on it at all, honestly,” said Victory, the 26-year-old electrician. The poll involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,006 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. ___ AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed this report. ___ Online: How would you fix Social Security? http://hosted.ap.org/interactives/2012/social-security/ AP-GfK poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Keep up with the AP Social Security series on Twitter: http://apne.ws/NRmPSQ Follow Stephen Ohlemacher on Twitter: http://twitter.com/stephenatap Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://twitter.com/jennagiesta How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Social Security was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from August 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,006 adults. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 402 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use _ landline only, cell only and both types _ by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Aug 25 AP-GfK Poll: Call them maybes; a fourth of voters undecided or soft supporters of Obama, Romney By NANCY BENAC and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Call them maybes. Two months out from Election Day, nearly a quarter of all registered voters are either undecided about the presidential race or iffy in their support for a candidate, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows. These voters could well prove decisive in a close contest. And they will be tough nuts for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney to crack. Just 29 percent of them have a strong interest in the campaign, compared with 51 percent of those who’ve made up their minds. So no, they won’t be hanging on every word coming out of the national political conventions in Tampa, Fla., and Charlotte, N.C., over the next two weeks. Who are they? These so-called persuadable voters are more often men than women. They are a bit younger than those who’ve made up their minds. They have less education and income. And they are far less partisan. A quarter are independent or unaffiliated, while more than a third consider themselves Democrats and a similar share count themselves as Republicans. They are folks like Eric Avila, a 35-year-old Democrat from Tampa who didn’t vote in 2008, has been unemployed since he was laid off from a sales job four years ago and doubts that either candidate will do much to reduce joblessness. Avila plans to vote this time but finds the campaign rhetoric from both sides grating. “It kind of gets on your nerves after a while,” he says, “all of this stuff a person’s promising, and it just gets forgotten or buried under a whole bunch of other things.” Take that, Barack and Mitt. Their challenge is to figure out what will shift people like Avila firmly one way or the other. Ask the persuadables what will be the single most important factor in deciding their vote, and they have a multitude of answers at the ready. ”Whoever runs the cleanest campaign,” says one of those surveyed. ”Whoever has the dirtiest ad campaigns on TV,” counters another. A third, who speaks for many, confesses she has “no idea” what will win her over. How the persuadables ultimately vote could hinge on which issues rise to the top of the campaign. Romney holds the advantage among these voters on the economy, creating jobs and the federal budget deficit. But on two issues that have recently grabbed the spotlight — social issues and Medicare — Obama is the more trusted candidate among these voters. Neither Obama nor Romney carries much weight with the persuadables, though: Half have an unfavorable opinion of each candidate. Count Pam Zickert, an independent from Santa Maria, Calif., among those who are undecided and unenthusiastic. The 62-year-old retiree dislikes Obama, finds Romney “a bit bland” and has no intention of watching the political conventions. ”It’s tough to pick a presidential candidate when none of them are inspiring,” says Zickert, who voted for Republican John McCain in 2008. William Galston, an expert on government and politics at the Brookings Institution and a former Clinton administration official, says that because the persuadables are more difficult to win over, Obama and Romney so far have been more focused on firming up support among their base supporters than on cultivating those on the fence. Romney’s selection of conservative darling Rep. Paul Ryan as a running mate was “a decision to place mobilization ahead of persuasion,” he says, and Obama’s campaign has been systematically targeting the basic building blocks of his winning 2008 coalition: women, Hispanics, younger voters and gays and lesbians among them. In a polarized political environment and with limited dollars to spend, says Galston, “you can increase your vote total much more per dollar by ginning up the enthusiasm of the people who are already for you.” Still, in a tight race, the persuadables could ultimately make the difference in key swing states, and they can’t be ignored. The campaigns may well spend the convention weeks and September firming up their base supporters, then devote the debates and the final weeks of the race to reaching out to more fickle persuadables. In the AP-GfK survey, taken Aug. 16-20, the 23 percent of registered voters who are considered persuadable included 7 percent who expressed no presidential preference, 7 percent with soft support for Obama and 9 percent with soft support for Romney. The poll involved landline and cellphone interviews with 885 registered voters, including 192 considered persuadable. The margin of sampling error for registered voters was plus or minus 4.1 percent, and for persuadables 8.9 points. Will the persuadables actually show up and vote? History suggests yes. In an AP-Yahoo study that interviewed the same people multiple times over the course of the 2008 presidential campaign, 38 percent of registered voters were persuadable in interviews conducted just ahead of that year’s conventions. When that same group was interviewed on Election Day, three-fourths said they had voted. When will the undecideds make up their minds? In 2004 and 2008, about 10 percent of voters reported they didn’t decide until the last week, according to exit polls. Michelle Woodby, a 36-year-old Republican homemaker from Tecumseh, Mich., says she’s been known to wait until the last minute. With small kids to care for and little time to watch the news, Woodby says she hasn’t fully tuned in yet. So far, Romney’s opposition to abortion has won her over, but Woodby says she’s still got a lot of studying to do — and she shows a decided lack of enthusiasm for the job. ”I need to do my homework,” she says, “which I dread.” ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Associated Press writer Josh Lederman and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on persuadable voters was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,006 adults, including 885 registered voters. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 402 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Aug 22 AP-GfK poll shows Obama and Romney still locked in tight race, with Obama lead in likability By TOM RAUM and JOSH LEDERMAN WASHINGTON (AP) — For all the attention it got, Republican Mitt Romney’s selection of Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate has not altered the race against President Barack Obama. The campaign remains neck and neck with less than three months to go, a new AP-GfK poll shows. Overall, 47 percent of registered voters said they planned to back Obama and Vice President Joe Biden in November, while 46 percent favored Romney and Ryan. That’s not much changed from a June AP-GfK survey, when the split was 47 percent for the president to 44 percent for Romney. At the same time, there’s a far wider gap when people were asked who they thought would win. Some 58 percent of adults said they expected Obama to be re-elected, while just 32 percent said they thought he’d be voted out of office. After just over a week on the campaign trail, Ryan has a 38 percent favorable rating among adults, while 34 percent see him unfavorably. Among registered voters, his numbers are slightly better — 40 percent favorable to 34 percent unfavorable. Ryan remains unknown to about a quarter of voters. Romney put the 42-year-old conservative chairman of the House Budget Committee on the ticket Aug. 11. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Aug. 16-20. Romney and Ryan will be crowned as the GOP presidential and vice presidential nominees next week at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla. The Democrats hold their convention the following week in Charlotte, N.C. The closely locked contest reflects deep partisan divisions across the country. Among true independents, those who say they do not lean toward either party, the share of undecided voters is declining, with each candidate picking up new support at about the same pace. However, Romney maintains a small advantage with the group, with the backing of 41 percent of independents to Obama’s 30 percent. Some 21 percent still say they support neither candidate. Among all voters, 23 percent are undecided or say they have not yet committed to their candidate. One independent voter, Frank Nugent, a 76-year-old retired sales manager from Pittsburg, Calif., said he always gives both parties a chance to win him over — but not this time. “Considering what the opposition is like, I can do nothing else but vote for Obama,” he said. Part of his dislike for the GOP ticket is due to Ryan, he said, describing Romney’s ticket mate as “further right that the bulk of the Republican Party.” But while he’ll vote for Obama, Nugent said he’s disappointed in Obama’s record. Robert Hamrick, 39, from Cedartown, Ga., is going the other way. Although a registered Democrat, he plans to vote for the Romney-Ryan ticket, claiming Obama has been deceptive and failed to make good on his promises on the economy, jobs and government debt. As for Ryan, Hamrick said: “He’s very smart. He knows his stuff. He knows the finance. He can take apart Obamacare with ease.” Hamrick is a former nursing home manager who left his job about four years ago in hopes of finding one with more security — and has been mostly unemployed ever since. The frail economy, with the unemployment rate hovering at 8.3 percent more than three years after the deep recession officially ended, remains the No. 1 issue. Nine in 10 call it important for them and half of voters say it is “extremely important,” outpacing all other issues tested by at least 10 percentage points. Two-thirds in the poll described the economy as poor. Registered voters split about evenly between the two candidates on whom they’d trust more to handle the economy, with 48 percent favoring Romney and 44 percent Obama. They are also about evenly divided on who would do more to create jobs, 47 percent for Romney to 43 percent for Obama. Among independent voters, Romney has a big lead over the president on handling the economy — 46 percent to 27 percent. Romney often appeals to his business background as proof that he could better manage the federal government, and the poll finds that overall, voters are more apt to trust him to handle the federal budget deficit over Obama, by a 50 percent to 40 percent margin. But it’s unlikely that Ryan’s background in authoring Republican budgets will boost them as an issue in the campaign. The share of adults saying the budget deficit was deeply important to them dropped from 75 percent in February to 69 percent in the new poll. Among those who rate the economy as the top concern is Mattise Fraser, a 52-year-old Democrat whose hometown of Charlotte is gearing up for the Democratic gathering. “We’re in a crisis situation now,” said Fraser, who said she plans to vote for Obama. She says she’s a homemaker — but not by choice. “The economy is crazy. There’s no jobs.” Obama holds a clear edge among voters on handling social issues such as abortion, 52 percent to 35 percent, and a narrow one on handling Medicare, 48 percent to 42 percent. Medicare has grabbed a lot of attention as an issue lately, with Ryan’s proposals to partly change the program drawing criticism from Obama and other Democrats. Of those who said Medicare is an extremely important issue, 49 percent say they plan to vote for Obama and 44 percent for Romney. Obama’s approval rating held steady at about an even split, with 49 percent saying they approve of the way he’s handling his job and another 49 percent saying they disapprove. The president remains more positively viewed than Romney, and continues to be seen as more empathetic. Some 53 percent of adults hold a “favorable” opinion of the president, compared with just 44 percent who view Romney favorably. Obama also held a commanding lead among voters as the candidate who better “understands the problems of people like you,” 51 percent to 36 percent for Romney. Some 50 percent see him as a stronger leader than Romney; 41 percent see Romney as stronger. Michelle Obama remains more popular than her husband. Sixty-four percent of adults view her favorably and just 26 percent unfavorably, although that’s down from 70 percent favorable in May. Ann Romney’s favorable rating is mostly unchanged since May, with 40 percent viewing her favorably, 27 percent unfavorably and nearly a third declining to say. Thirty-five percent overall say things in the nation are heading in the “right direction,” up from 31 percent in June. Melinda Cody, a 45-year-old undecided voter in San Diego, sees positives and negatives with both candidates — and says she’ll vote for the candidate who does the least bullying. “When they just run a negative campaign, it backfires,” she said. The poll involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,006 adults nationwide, including 885 registered voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9, while it’s 4.1 points for registered voters. AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 presidential election was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,006 adults, including 885 registered voters. Interviews were conducted with 604 respondents on landline telephones and 402 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Jul 16 Generation X and the Presidential Election 2012 While many are asking whom crucial GenX voters will support in the November presidential election, the more important question may be whether they plan to vote at all. Shoshana Parker of GfK uses findings from the latest AP-GfK polling to explore GenX’s views and seemingly ambivalent feelings about politics. Jul 12 AP-GfK poll: Almost all Russians see drug abuse as a top problem as Afghan heroin floods in By MANSUR MIROVALEV, Associated Press REUTOV, Russia (AP) — Nikolai Leonov was walking through this Moscow suburb with his 2-year-old daughter when the toddler bent down and picked up a bloodied syringe from the grass. “I snatched it away from her a second before she could hurt herself,” Leonov said, still shaken days later. The computer hardware shop owner is one of millions of Russians horrified by a drug abuse epidemic that has turned Russia into the world’s largest consumer of heroin. An Associated Press-GfK poll released this month shows that nearly nine in 10 Russians (87 percent) identify drug abuse as at least a “very serious” problem in Russia today, including 55 percent describing the problem as “extremely serious.” The only other issue that worries as many Russians (85 percent) is the corruption that pervades Russian society, business and politics. Russians living across the vast country, of all levels of education and income, differ little when it comes to the extent of the drug abuse problem, although 91 percent of urban dwellers see it as a serious problem, compared to 82 percent of rural residents. Unprompted, 10 percent of Russians cite criminality, alcohol or drug abuse as the most important problem facing the country today, on par with the share citing basic needs such as medical care, housing and education. Some 2.5 million Russians are addicted to drugs, and 90 percent of them use the heroin that has flooded into Russia from Afghanistan since the late 1990s, according to government statistics. The nation with a population of 143 million consumes 70 tons of Afghan heroin every year, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Heroin kills 80 Russians each day — or 30,000 a year — and is “as easy to buy as a Snickers” chocolate bar, Russia’s anti-drug czar Viktor Ivanov said. Meanwhile, new drugs — such as highly addictive synthetic marijuana and a cheap and lethal concoction made of codeine pills known as “crocodile” — compete with heroin and kill thousands more. Drug addicts are also the people Russians would least like to have as neighbors, according to the AP-GfK poll. They are seen as more undesirable than alcoholics by a margin of 87 to 77 percent. The AP-GfK poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications from May 25 to June 10 and was based on in-person interviews with 1,675 randomly selected adults nationwide. The results have a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Leonov lives with his accountant wife and two children in a recently renovated one-bedroom apartment in Reutov, a suburb of Moscow known for its Soviet-era research institutes and defense factories. A statue of Soviet founder Vladimir Lenin still stands on the town square. Their biggest problem is the addicts who live in the neighborhood. Last year, he saw the body of an addict who apparently had overdosed right next to the playground where his children play. “He was there for a couple of hours before the cops showed up,” Leonov said, pointing at a wooden bench where a bespectacled elderly woman was sitting. Leonov claimed that the heroin that killed the addict was sold by a neighbor, who was always dirty and dressed in rags but flaunted a collection of new cell phones. His customers, mostly skinny and chain-smoking youngsters, would leave used syringes on the asphalt and occupy the benches for hours after getting their fix. The neighbor was arrested this spring, but Leonov said little has changed because the addicts apparently found another source of heroin nearby. The heroin epidemic caught Russia by surprise. Before the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, the number of drug addicts who used intravenous injections was extremely low. But the rise of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan opened a floodgate of cheap heroin, which flowed into Russia through the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. The arrival of NATO troops in Afghanistan only aggravated the situation, because coalition troops were instructed not to eradicate poppy crops for fear of driving the farmers into the ranks of the Taliban. Moscow for years has been urging the U.S. military in Afghanistan to take stronger action against local drug labs and smugglers, but the production of Afghan opium since NATO’s arrival has increased 40-fold, according to anti-drug czar Ivanov. Most of Russia’s 2.5 million drug addicts are aged 18 to 39 — a generation of Russians lost to heroin. ”The only thing the government can do is save the new generation, because we cannot be saved,” said Valery, a former heroin addict from the Volga River city of Samara. He gave only his first name because his support group does not allow contacts with the media. After a meeting with a dozen other recovering drug addicts, he recalled childhood friends who had overdosed, gone to jail or been infected with HIV after sharing contaminated needles. He remembered sharing a needle with a man who he knew had been in jail and thus had a high chance of being infected with HIV. ”I needed a fix that badly,” said Valery, now a barrel-chested body builder. “Only God saved me” from getting infected, he said. Infection is a major concern for Leonov’s family. In the past decade, the number of HIV infections in Russia has tripled in one of the world’s fastest-growing epidemics of the virus that causes AIDS, according to the United Nations. An estimated four fifths of the 980,000 Russians officially registered as HIV positive became infected through dirty needles. When Leonov’s wife, Yelena, was in a maternity hospital to give birth to their daughter, Nastya, she saw another pregnant woman injecting heroin brought in by her husband. Doctors at the hospital told her they would not isolate the woman because she might die or lose her child if she went through withdrawal, she said. ___ On the Net: www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll in Russia, on views of drug abuse, was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 25-June 10. It is based on a national random sample of 1,675 Russians age 18 and older from different interviewing locations. One hundred cities and districts were initially selected, with probability proportionate to size. Next 200 urban and rural blocks were randomly selected from the 100. Excluded from the block selection were remote and low-populated areas, including some high-mountain terrain, and clusters of minority and ethnic groups whose command of Russian was limited. The lack of official statistics makes it difficult to estimate the amount of non-coverage, but it is probably somewhere between 3 and 6 percent. In the blocks, interviewers were assigned random routes with rules to randomly select a household for the interview. Interviewers then recorded the number of adults in the household and randomly selected an adult for the interview. Interviewers revisited the home if the selected adult was not present. Interviews were conducted in Russian. As done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup. The sample was weighted to take into account the sampling method, as well as for age and sex. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 2.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Russia were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Jul 07 New optimism about stemming spread of AIDS virus By LAURAN NEERGAARD, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) – An AIDS-free generation: It seems an audacious goal, considering how the HIV epidemic still is raging around the world. Yet more than 20,000 international HIV researchers and activists will gather in the nation’s capital later this month with a sense of optimism not seen in many years – hope that it finally may be possible to dramatically stem the spread of the AIDS virus. “We want to make sure we don’t overpromise,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health’s infectious disease chief, told The Associated Press. But, he said, “I think we are at a turning point.” The big new focus is on trying to get more people with HIV treated early, when they’re first infected, instead of waiting until they’re weakened or sick, as the world largely has done until now. Staying healthier also makes them less likely to infect others. That’s a tall order. But studies over the past two years have shown what Fauci calls “striking, sometimes breathtaking results,” in preventing people at high risk of HIV from getting it in some of the hardest-hit countries, using this treatment-as-prevention and some other protections. Now, as the International AIDS Conference returns to the U.S. for the first time in 22 years, the question is whether the world will come up with the money and the know-how to put the best combinations of protections into practice, for AIDS-ravaged poor countries and hot spots in developed nations as well. “We have the tools to make it happen,” said Dr. Elly Katabira, president of the International AIDS Society, which organizes the world’s largest HIV conference, set for July 22-27. He points to strides already in Botswana and Rwanda in increasing access to AIDS drugs. But Fauci cautioned that moving those tools into everyday life is “a daunting challenge,” given the costs of medications and the difficulty in getting people to take them for years despite poverty and other competing health and social problems. In the U.S., part of that challenge is complacency. Despite 50,000 new HIV infections here every year, an AP-GfK poll finds that very few people in the United States worry about getting the virus. Also, HIV increasingly is an epidemic of the poor, minorities and urban areas such as the District of Columbia, where the rate of infection rivals some developing countries. The conference will spotlight this city’s aggressive steps to fight back: A massive effort to find the undiagnosed, with routine testing in some hospitals, testing vans that roam the streets, even free tests at a Department of Motor Vehicles office, and then rapidly getting those patients into care. “These are the true champions,” Dr. Mohammed Akhter, director of the city’s health department, said of patients who faithfully take their medication. “They’re also protecting their community.” ___ A few miles east of the Capitol and the tourist-clogged monuments, the Community Education Group’s HIV testing van pulls into a parking lot in a low-income neighborhood with a particularly high infection rate. An incentive for the crowd at a nearby corner is the offer of a $10 supermarket gift card for getting tested. Christopher Freeman, 23, is first in line. He was tested earlier this year and says showing off that official paper proclaiming him HIV-negative attracts “the ladies.” “Forget money, it’s the best thing you can show them,” he said. But that test was months ago, and Freeman admits he seldom uses condoms. He climbs into the van and rubs a swab over his gums. Twenty minutes later, he’s back for the result: Good news – no HIV. But counselor Amanda Matthews has Freeman go through a list of the risk factors; it’s education to try to keep him and his future partners safe. “Just try to get yourself in the habit of using condoms,” she said. “You say it’s hard to use condoms but what if you do contract the virus? Then you’ve got to take medications every day.” Freeman waves his new test result with a grin, and walks off with a handful of free condoms. At a nearby bus stop, counselor Laila Patrick encounters a little resistance while handing out condoms, when a woman says that encourages sex outside of marriage. “Stopping AIDS is everyone’s business. You’re looking out for the next person,” Patrick said. “You might just want to help someone be safe.” ___ About 34 million people worldwide have HIV, including almost 1.2 million Americans. It’s a very different epidemic from the last time the International AIDS Conference came to the United States, in 1990. Life-saving drugs emerged a few years later, turning HIV from a death sentence into a manageable chronic disease for people and countries that can afford the medications. Yet for all the improvements in HIV treatment, the rate of new infections in the U.S. has held steady for about a decade. About 1 in 5 Americans with HIV don’t know they have it, more than 200,000 people who unwittingly can spread the virus. Government figures show most new U.S. infections are among gay and bisexual men, followed by heterosexual black women. Of particular concern, African-Americans account for about 14 percent of the population but 44 percent of new HIV infections. Your ZIP code plays a role in your risk, too. Twelve cities account for more than 40 percent of the nation’s AIDS cases: New York, Los Angeles, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, Houston, San Francisco, Baltimore, Dallas and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Many are concentrated in specific parts of those cities. “Maps tell the story,” said Brown University assistant professor Amy Nunn, who is beginning a campaign that will bring a testing van door-to-door in the hardest-hit Philadelphia ZIP code. “It’s not just what you do, it’s also where you live. There’s just a higher chance that you will come into contact with the virus,” she explained. ___ Prospects for a vaccine are so far elusive and health disparities are widening, so why the optimism as expressed by the Obama administration’s goal of getting to an AIDS-free generation? Consider the potential strategies, to add to tried-and-true steps such as condom use and treating HIV-infected pregnant women to protect their unborn babies: -Studies found treatment-as-prevention could lower an HIV patient’s chance of spreading the virus to an uninfected sexual partner by a stunning 96 percent. In the U.S., new guidelines recommend starting treatment early rather than waiting until the immune system has weakened. Abroad, the United Nations hopes to more than double the number of patients being treated in poor countries to 15 million by 2015. -Other studies show a longtime AIDS medication named Truvada can prevent infection, too, if taken daily by healthy people who are at risk from their infected sexual partners. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to decide by fall whether to formally approve sale of Truvada as an HIV preventive. -A study from South Africa found a vaginal gel containing anti-AIDS medication helped protect women when their infected partners wouldn’t use a condom, generating more interest in developing women-controlled protection. -Globally, experts also stress male circumcision, to lower men’s risk of heterosexually acquired HIV. ___ Testing is a key step in improving prevention. The AP-GfK poll found 57 percent of adults say they’ve been tested at some point, a bit higher than federal estimates, but not enough. The government recommends at least one test for adults, and that populations at higher risk get tested at least once a year. Following those recommendations depends in part on people’s concern about AIDS. The poll found just over half of Americans consider HIV as much or more of a problem now than two decades ago. But less than 20 percent are worried about getting it themselves, and even populations at higher risk don’t consider HIV a big threat. Some 16 percent of black respondents said they’re very worried about HIV, compared with 4 percent of whites. “We’ve become complacent about HIV in America, and it’s a real tragedy because hundreds of thousands of people in our own country aren’t getting the care they need,” said Chris Collins of amFAR, The Foundation for AIDS Research. The drugs can cost up to $15,000 a year in the U.S., and overall treatment costs are rising as people with HIV live longer. In developing countries, those drugs can cost less than $400 a year. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted June 14-18 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,007 adults nationwide. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. _____ In the U.S., the government is targeting the hardest-hit communities as part of a plan to reduce HIV infections by 25 percent by 2015, said Assistant Secretary of Health Howard Koh. Work is under way to learn the best steps to get people treated early, including in cities such as Washington, where 2.7 percent of residents have HIV, roughly four times the national rate. Washington resident Zee Turner knows it’s hard to stick with care. She’s had HIV for two decades, learning the news when her baby was born sick. Health workers helped mom and daughter receive then-newly emerging treatments, and they’re doing well today. “I felt that I should get out here and try to help somebody else, because somebody had to help us get into care,” said Turner, now 53 and a community health worker. The city’s latest HIV count suggests progress, with a slight decrease in new diagnoses and a majority of patients being connected with medical care. Community workers such as Turner are called to try to help people stay on treatment when other problems intervene. “If they’re on drugs, I take them to the drug program. If they need help going on Medicaid, I go with them to Medicaid,” Turner said. “Any problem they have, I’m going to try to fix it and get them back into care.” ___ Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: International AIDS conference: http://www.aids2012.org Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jul 02 AP-GfK poll: Views on Putin sharply divided between protesting Moscow and rest of Russia By LYNN BERRY and LAURA MILLS, Associated Press MOSCOW (AP) — The success and possible future undoing of President Vladimir Putin lies in the contrast between people like provincial housewife Yekaterina Arsentyeva and Moscow student Kirill Guskov. In the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, Arsentyeva sees Putin as the only man who can ensure her children have a decent future. In the capital, Guskov can’t hide his contempt for Russia’s leader and the culture of corruption he has overseen: “A fish rots from its head,” he fumes. An Associated Press-GfK poll released Monday reveals a stark divide between Moscow and the rest of Russia over the man who has ruled the country for the past 12 years. A total of 60 percent of Russians maintain a favorable opinion of the president as he begins his third term. In contrast, only 38 percent in the capital — where tens of thousands have joined anti-Putin protests — have a favorable view of him. The division extends to views on the fairness of elections and the state of the economy, while almost all agree that corruption is among the most serious problems facing Russia today. The split promises to have profound, albeit still unknown, consequences for the future of the protest movement and of Putin himself. The outcome depends in large part on the economy, which the poll shows is the primary concern of most Russians. While anger over the trampling of democratic rights has brought Muscovites out to protest in droves, any deterioration in living standards could prove the catalyst for protests in the provinces. Pending hikes in utilities prices have the potential to cause broad discontent. The mood in the hinterlands may also change as more people gain access to the Internet and the social networks that have been crucial to the rise of the protest movement in Moscow and other large cities. For now, people like the 39-year-old Arsentyeva have no sympathy for the protest movement and the educated, urban professionals who have been its driving force. ”If they don’t like our country, why do they live here? Let them go to Europe or America and express their dissatisfaction there,” she said. Her hopes are pinned firmly on Putin. ”My husband works in a good company that is growing, we have a stable income, I can easily buy diapers, soap, anything my children need and I don’t have to stand in line or run around in search of goods in short supply,” said Arsentyeva, who is expecting her second child. Her views reflect a deep-seated fear of social upheaval and of a return to the turmoil of the 1990s, the decade following the Soviet collapse, when salaries often went unpaid for months and store shelves were thinly stocked. Nikolai Petrov, who studies Russian regional politics at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said that Putin’s popularity should be considered support for the existing order and not for Putin himself. “The majority of Russians are still not ready to change the whole system,” Petrov said. Putin’s approval rating hit a high of 81 percent as he wrapped up his second term in 2008, according to the Levada Center, which measures his current overall rating at 60 percent, about the same as the 58 percent registered in the AP-GfK poll. Putin handed over the presidency to his junior partner, Dmitry Medvedev, but as prime minister he remained the dominant player in Russian politics. Putin’s decision in September to reclaim the presidency, followed by his party’s victory in a December parliamentary election through what observers said was widespread fraud, set off protests across Russia. After Putin won the March presidential election with 64 percent of the vote, the protests died away in much of the country except for Moscow and St. Petersburg. The AP-GfK poll indicates that Putin retains broad support, although only 18 percent expressed a strongly favorable view of him. At the other end of the spectrum, 14 percent expressed a somewhat or strongly unfavorable view. The majority falls in between, passively supportive but some increasingly cynical. Magomed Abakarov, who works for the government in the North Caucasus city of Makhachkala, voted for Putin, but his support is tepid at best. ”I consider him a liar and a fake,” Abakarov said. “Someday we’ll know who the real Mr. Putin is, but under the current circumstances he is the best candidate for president. He can talk tough with the leader of any country.” The majority of Russians see their country as a stronger international power than it was before Putin became president in 2000, according to the poll. Like many Russians, Abakarov said he voted for Putin because there was no viable alternative in a country where only Kremlin-approved candidates are allowed to run for president. Putin has centralized control over the political system, preventing the emergence of independent political leaders and reducing parliament to a rubber stamp. The presidency is now the only institution that at least half of Russians feel can be trusted to do what is right, according to the AP-GfK poll. The military, still manned by conscripts, comes next with the trust of 41 percent. The parliament only has the trust of about a quarter of the people and the same goes for the courts, which have been compromised by corrupt judges. Just 18 percent say they trust the police, who are notorious for shaking down motorists. Corruption is among Russians’ biggest concerns, with 91 percent of those surveyed in Moscow calling it a serious problem and almost as many, 85 percent, of those outside the capital saying the same. Even though Putin has failed to deliver on repeated pledges to crack down on corrupt officials, most Russians don’t hold him responsible. Grigory Mikheyev, a 28-year-old systems administrator in the far eastern town of Dalnegorsk, complained of a system of double standards. ”The laws seem fine, but they only apply to the selected few,” he said. “The simple people get punished, while the bureaucrats get rich.” Still, Mikheyev said he generally approves of Putin. In keeping with the disparity between the capital and the rest of the country, Muscovites are far more likely to see election fraud as a serious problem: 56 percent compared with 37 percent elsewhere. Guskov, the 21-year-old Moscow student, expressed frustration over what he sees as one-man rule. ”He is still a czar and Russia is the kind of country where a lot depends on a single person,” Guskov said. “But we as a people are trying to do something, so we go to protests and demonstrate our discontent.” A major factor behind the divergence between Moscow and the rest of Russia is that about half of those surveyed live in small towns and rural areas, where most people still get their news from the Kremlin-controlled national television networks. Half of the respondents outside the capital said they do not use the Internet, compared with only 10 percent in Moscow. Without access to the Internet, they have not seen the flood of videos purporting to show blatant vote rigging or read about alleged corruption in political and business circles close to Putin. Without the Internet, many Russians are unlikely to know much about Alexei Navalny, a charismatic corruption fighter and blogger who is a leader of the anti-Putin protest movement. In Moscow, only 15 percent said they had no opinion of Navalny, compared with 46 percent in the rest of the country. This may change, however, as the number of Internet users rises steadily. The Public Opinion Foundation said 38 percent of Russians now use the Internet daily, up from 22 percent just two years ago. Residents of Moscow also differ from the rest of their countrymen with their far more pessimistic view of Russia’s oil-based economy, perhaps because they are more aware of the challenges ahead. To consolidate his base ahead of the election, Putin promised higher wages and benefits to soldiers, police, doctors and teachers. He pledged to pump billions of dollars into ailing industrial plants and the military. But economists warn that the additional spending is unsustainable if oil prices remain low. Russia is able to balance its budget if the Urals blend of oil stays above $115, but it is currently trading at closer to $90. Sergei Mikheyev, an analyst with the Center for Political Technologies, said the economic troubles would have to be lasting and deep to drive people in the region out onto the streets. ”To make the regions rise up in a revolt, the oil price will need to take a dramatic toll on living standards, for example by making millions of people jobless,” he said. Petrov, the Carnegie scholar, is more pessimistic. He points to substantial hikes in the cost of heating and electricity that will go into effect in July and begin to bite once the weather turns cold, coupled with unpopular new taxes and education reforms going into effect in September. ”We’ve witnessed a big wave of political protests, with Moscow as the leader, in big cities. I don’t think this political protest will go down to small towns, but in the fall there will be socio-economic protests, and socio-economic protests across the country combined with political protests in the big cities will create a deadly mix.” The AP-GfK poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications from May 25 to June 10 and was based on in-person interviews with 1,675 randomly selected adults nationwide. The results have a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. ___ Liya Khabarova in Vladivostok, Arsen Mollayev in Makhachkala, Sergei Venyavsky in Rostov-on-Don and Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow contributed to this report. ___ On the Net: www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK Poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll in Russia, on attitudes and opinions of Russians, was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 25-June 10. It is based on a national random sample of 1,675 Russians age 18 and older from different interviewing locations. One hundred cities and districts were initially selected, with probably proportionate to size. Next 200 urban and rural blocks were randomly selected from the 100. Excluded from the block selection were remote and low-populated areas, including some high-mountain terrain, and clusters of minority and ethnic groups whose command of Russian was limited. The lack of official statistics makes it difficult to estimate the amount of non-coverage, but it is probably somewhere between 3 and 6 percent. In the blocks, interviewers were assigned random routes with rules to randomly select a household for the interview. Interviewers then recorded the number of adults in the household and randomly selected on adult for the interview. Interviewers revisited the home if the selected adult was not present. Interviews were conducted in Russian. As done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup. The sample was weighted to take into account the sampling method, as well as for age and sex. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 2.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Russia were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Jun 22 AP-GfK Poll: Despite Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage, public opinion shifts little on issue By PHILIP ELLIOTT and DENNIS JUNIUS, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage did little to shift the nation’s views on the subject, with a new poll finding that the public remains evenly split on the issue. Even so, an Associated Press-GfK survey released Friday found that the president fired up his core supporters — at least for now — with his support of gay marriage. More young people, liberals and Democrats say they strongly approve of Obama’s handling of same-sex marriage than said they did before he disclosed his new position last month. The poll found that 42 percent of Americans oppose gay marriage, 40 percent support it and 15 percent are neutral. Last August, the country was similarly divided over whether same-sex couples should be allowed to be legally married in their state, with 45 percent opposing, 42 percent favoring and 10 percent neutral. The country’s divisions — and conflictions — are clear in the voices of Americans. “Marriage is a marriage, and it’s between a man and a woman,” said John Von Sneidern, a 76-year-old Republican from Fairfield, Conn., before pausing. “But on the other side of that, there are a lot of gay couples who are responsible and dedicated to each other and deserve a lot of the benefits of marriage.” The issue, however, won’t shape his vote; he plans to vote on the economy and support Mitt Romney because of his private-sector experience. Katherine Galdarisi, a 67-year-old Democrat from Sacramento, Calif., backed Republican John McCain four years ago but plans to back Obama this time. That’s partly because she faults Republicans for not working with the president on issues voters care about, saying: “They fight him every step of the way and talk about things that don’t matter like gay marriage.” “It’s none of anybody’s business,” Galdarisi said. “I don’t care if someone marries a monkey. It doesn’t affect me in the least.” For years, Obama faced pressure from the left to announce his support for gay marriage, and he spent a chunk of his presidency signaling that he would do just that by saying that he was “evolving” on the issue. While the economy continues to dominate the presidential race, Obama’s team was mindful that anything — including social issues like gay marriage — could shift the balance if the contest, which surveys show is close less than five months before the election. Even so, Obama announced his reversal and risked turning off some conservative, moderate and independent voters across the nation and in states like Virginia and North Carolina that hadn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in decades until Obama won them four years ago. The gamble may have paid off. The AP-GfK poll showed that voters, at least nationally, didn’t flee the president. When asked which candidate Americans trust to do a better job of handling social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage, there was little change from a poll taken about a week before Obama’s May 9 announcement; 52 percent now side with Obama, compared with 36 percent for Romney. And more Democrats and liberals said they strongly approved of the president’s handling of gay marriage than did last August; 41 percent of Democrats now say that, compared with 26 percent back then, and 48 percent of liberals have that view, up from 28 percent almost a year ago. But posing a potential problem for the president, his announcement also fired up the right — against him. More Republicans and conservatives said they strongly disapproved of his handling of the issue now than before; 53 percent of Republicans said that, compared with 45 percent in August, and 52 percent of conservatives say as much now, up from 43 percent back then. The issue could compel them to turn out in droves to vote against Obama. Self-described social conservatives like Bethel Hissom of Knoxville, Tenn., is among those who plan to back Romney and who don’t support allowing gays to wed. “It’s not marriage,” the 65-year-old retired speech therapist said. Of Obama’s position, she said: “It will probably help his chances at being re-elected. It will get the gay population in favor of that and that could swing votes to his favor. But it is not marriage.” Obama’s announcement clearly affected some — and in personal ways. Trevor Rzucidlo, a 22-year-old who graduated last month from the University of Connecticut, had a roommate who is gay, and he said that hearing the president speak out in support of someone he cared about “was huge.” My peers are just way more chilled out than older people are,” said Rzucidlo, who considers himself an independent and plans to vote for Obama. “They’re less concerned with how other people live their lives.” Indeed, support for gay marriage remains a popular position with younger voters; 50 percent of people under age 35 said they would favor allowing same-sex couples to be legally married in their state, compared with 36 percent of those ages 35 and up. Among those under 35, overall approval of the president’s handling of same-sex marriage has held steady, but those who back him do so more strongly now. His “strong” approval numbers have just about doubled, jumping from 17 percent last August to 34 percent in the AP-GfK survey. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted June 14-18, 2012, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,007 adults nationwide, including 878 registered voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points and for registered voters it is 4.2 points. ___ Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP writer Josh Lederman contributed to this report. ___ Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jun 21 AP-GfK Poll: Obama loses advantage over Romney as economic anxieties increase By JIM KUHNHENN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Fewer Americans believe the economy is getting better and a majority disapproves of how President Barack Obama is handling it, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Republican challenger Mitt Romney has exploited those concerns and moved into a virtually even position with the president. Three months of declining job creation have left the public increasingly glum, with only 3 out of 10 adults saying the country is headed in the right direction. Five months before the election, the economy remains Obama’s top liability. Obama has lost the narrow lead he had held just a month ago among registered voters. In the new poll, 47 percent say they will vote for the president and 44 percent for Romney, a difference that is not statistically significant. The poll also shows that Romney has recovered well from a bruising Republican primary, with more of his supporters saying they are certain to vote for him now. Still, in a measure of Romney’s own vulnerabilities, even some voters who say they support Romney believe the president will still be re-elected. Of all adults polled, 56 percent believe Obama will win a second term. With his Republican nomination now ensured, Romney has succeeded in unifying the party behind him and in maintaining a singular focus on making the election a referendum on Obama’s handling of the economy. The poll is not good news for the president, and it reflects fluctuations in the economy, which has shown both strength and weakness since it began to recover from the recent recession. The new survey illustrates how an ideologically divided country and a stumbling recovery have driven the two men into a tight match. About half — 49 percent — approve of how Obama is handling his job as president, dropping him below the 50 percent mark he was above in May. Disapproval of Obama is highest — 55 percent — for his handling of the economy. Still, registered voters are split virtually evenly on whether Romney or Obama would do a better job improving it. “I’m not going to vote for Obama,” said Raymond Back, a 60-year-old manufacturing plant manager from North Olmsted, Ohio, one of the most competitive states in this election. “It’s just the wrong thing to go. I don’t know what Romney is going to do, but this isn’t the right way.” Obama’s overall 49 percent approval rating is not unlike the approval ratings George W. Bush faced in June 2004 during his re-election campaign, when he and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry, were also locked in a dead heat. The polling numbers come as no surprise to either camp. Both Romney and Obama advisers have anticipated a close contest that will be driven largely by economic conditions. The Obama camp is busy trying to define Romney, hoping it is reaching more independents like Doss Comer, 58, of Jacksonville, N.C., who said he would vote for Obama again, despite the lagging economy. “I think we are on the wrong track,” he said. “We’re not getting anywhere. We’re not growing. The unemployment rate just spiked up again.” But, he added: “I don’t trust Romney because of what he’s doing. He’s telling his business experience, that he was an investor in business. … I don’t think he has the right background any more than Obama.” Besides weak job growth and still high unemployment, Obama is at the mercy of European countries struggling with a debt crisis that has already sent ripples across the Atlantic. At the same time, there are signs that the housing industry may be on the mend. U.S. builders started work on more single-family homes in May and requested the most permits to build homes and apartments in 3 1/2 years. Those types of crosscurrents are also evident in politics. While preferences for November are evenly split, a majority believes Obama will still be re-elected, a shift from an even split on the question seven months ago. In December, 21 percent of Republicans said they thought Obama would win re-election; that’s risen to 31 percent now. And among independents, the share saying Obama will win has climbed from 49 percent to 60 percent. Among Democrats, it was 75 percent in both polls. Tim Baierlein of Brandon, Fla., believes Romney would be a reassuring voice for a business community worried about regulations and higher taxes. But he said he still thinks Obama will win because the right wing of the Republican Party could alienate voters away from Romney and because, in his view, Romney lacks a clear message. “He just comes across as very elitist and I think that’s going to hurt,” he said. About 4 out of 10 adults say they are worse off now than they were four years ago, compared with nearly 3 out of 10 who say they are doing better now. Among those who say they’re doing worse, 60 percent say they plan to vote for Romney in November. Amy Thackeray, 35, of Alpine, Utah, said her husband and five children experienced the economic downturn when it affected her husband’s job. “We’ve dealt with a pay cut,” she said. “We are grateful we still have a job. We live within our means. We save and we feel that in situations like this, it makes us save even more.” “We need someone with more financial and business experience than what Obama has,” she said. “We need a president who takes one term and makes the hard decisions to put us back on the right track, and I hope it will be Romney.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted June 14-18 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,007 adults nationwide, including 878 registered voters. Results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points; it is 4.2 points for registered voters. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 presidential election and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 14-18. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,007 adults, including 878 registered voters. Interviews were conducted with 707 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Jun 20 AP-GfK Poll: Poll: Political leaders should work on new bill if Supreme Court throws out Obama health law By MARK SHERMAN, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans overwhelmingly want the president and Congress to get to work on a new bill to change the health care system if the Supreme Court strikes down President Barack Obama’s 2010 overhaul as unconstitutional, a new poll finds. A new health care bill doesn’t seem to be in either party’s plans on the verge of the high court’s verdict on the law aimed at extending health insurance to more than 30 million Americans who now lack coverage. Republicans say they will try to repeal whatever’s left of the law after the high court rules and then wait at least until after the November elections to push replacement measures. Democrats say Obama will push to put in place whatever survives. But an Associated Press-GfK poll shows that more than three-fourths of Americans do not want their political leaders to leave the health care system alone in the event the court throws out the health care law. Large majorities of both opponents and backers of the law share the view that Congress and the president should undertake a new effort. The lowest level of support for new health care legislation comes from people who identify themselves as strong supporters of the tea party. Even in that group, though, nearly 60 percent favor work on a new bill. Gary Hess, a Republican from Discovery Bay, Calif., wants the high court to throw out the entire law. But Hess, 77, said he favors the provision requiring insurance companies to cover people regardless of their medical condition. “There needs to be compromise on both sides,” the retired school administrator said. Garrett Chase, 51, said he hopes the court leaves the law in place but agreed with Hess that the politicians should get back to work if this law is struck down. “I live in the ghetto, and I see people dying every day,” said Chase, an unemployed car salesman from Baltimore. “They can’t get help because they can’t afford it.” The call for new legislation comes even as just a third of Americans support the landmark health care law. The overall level of support for the law is relatively unchanged in recent months, with 47 percent opposing it. But among independents, only 21 percent approve of the law, a new low in AP-GfK polling. Most of the law’s major changes have yet to take effect, including the requirement that most people have health insurance or pay a penalty. The insurance mandate has been among the least popular aspects of the law. Provisions that have gone into effect include extended coverage for young adults on their parents’ insurance and relief for seniors with high prescription drug costs. A narrow majority say the outcome of this year’s presidential contest between Obama and his presumed challenger, Republican Mitt Romney, will have a big effect on the nation’s health care system. Republicans, at 58 percent, are most likely to see a link between the election and health care. Forty-eight percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents believe the election will have a great deal of impact on the health care system. Obama’s approval rating on handling health care was unchanged compared with polls in May and February. Forty-eight percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of his handling of the issue. Independents’ disapproval of Obama on health care topped 50 percent for the first time since October. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted June 14-18 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,007 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the health care law was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 14-18. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,007 adults. Interviews were conducted with 707 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org May 15 AP-CNBC Poll: Half of Americans say Facebook appeal will fade, IPO shares overpriced By TALI ARBEL, AP Business Writer Half of Americans think Facebook is a passing fad, according to the results of a new Associated Press-CNBC poll. And, in the run-up to the social network’s initial public offering of stock, half of Americans also say the social network’s expected asking price is too high. The company Mark Zuckerberg created as a Harvard student eight years ago is preparing for what looks to be the biggest Internet IPO ever. Expected later this week, Facebook’s Wall Street debut could value the company at $100 billion, making it worth more than Disney, Ford and Kraft Foods. That’s testament to the impressive numbers Facebook has posted in its relatively brief history. More than 40 percent of American adults log in to the site —to share news, personal observations, photos and more— at least once a week. In all, some 900 million people around the world are users. Facebook’s revenue grew from $777 million in 2009 to $3.7 billion last year. And in the first quarter of 2012 it was more than $1 billion. Just a third of those surveyed think the company’s expected value is appropriate, 50 percent say it is too high. Those who invest in the stock market are more likely to see Facebook as overvalued, 58 percent said so. About 3 in 10 investors say the expected value of shares is fair. But price worries won’t necessarily stop would-be investors. Half the people surveyed say they think Facebook is a good bet, while 31 percent do not. The rest aren’t sure. Americans who invest in stocks roughly agree, although investors who are more “active” — those who have changed their holdings in the past month —are more negative. Nearly 40 percent say Facebook would not be a good investment. Young adults, a majority of whom log on to Facebook daily, are more willing to dance to their hoodie-wearing piper, 28-year-old CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Among Zuckerberg’s peers, adults under age 35, 59 percent say Facebook is a good bet. Compare that to the views of senior citizens: Only 39 percent age 65 and over say Facebook shares are a good investment. Nearly half of Gen X’ers (ages 35-44) say the company is a good bet, as do 55 percent of middle-aged people. Those under 35 are the generation most interested in Facebook’s IPO because they’ve grown up immersed in the social network. They were the first users, logging in from their college dorm rooms. Later, Facebook expanded to allow high school-age and even younger students to sign up. It’s become an integral part of their lives, giving them a launching pad to spread the news of life’s major developments through posts and pictures. Conversely, it’s the rare senior citizen on Facebook: Just 21 percent have an account. Half of baby boomers — the generation born in the years after World War II — have one. But most of the 56 percent of the country that’s on Facebook is young — two-thirds of Gen X’ers and a staggering 81 percent of people 18-35 use the social networking site. Young people aren’t just connected. They are constantly tethered to smartphones, tablets and notebook computers. Even with the rise of alternative social networks like Twitter and Google Plus, 55 percent of Zuckerberg’s peers go on Facebook every day. A third log on several times a day. Despite the intensity of their use, a narrow majority of young adults predict Facebook’s appeal will fade down the road (51 percent), fewer think it will stick around as a service (44 percent). The public overall is similarly divided on the company’s future. Just under half of adults (46 percent) predict a short timeline for Facebook, while 43 percent say it has staying power. Young people are more aware of Zuckerberg and have more positive views of the CEO, who celebrated his 28th birthday on Monday. Overall, one in five Americans say they’ve never heard of him, 30 percent don’t have an opinion and 14 percent plain don’t like him. Only about a third have a good impression of the CEO, who has alienated some with Facebook’s ever-changing approach to user privacy. But 46 percent of people under 35 like him. And a scant 4 percent of those younger adults say they’ve never heard of him. The privacy issue is a stinger. Three of every five Facebook users say they have little or no faith that the company will protect their personal information. Only 13 percent trust Facebook to guard their data, and only 12 percent would feel safe making purchases through the site. Even Facebook’s most dedicated users are wary — half of those who use the site daily say they wouldn’t feel safe buying things on the network. As for how Facebook makes most of its money —selling ads— 57 percent of users say they never click on them or on Facebook’s sponsored content. About another quarter say they rarely do. Despite user discontent about privacy, Facebook and Zuckerberg have connected with many Americans. The survey suggests that his reputation and youth seem more like assets than liabilities. For those who have heard of the CEO, two-thirds are at least somewhat confident in his ability to run a large public company. Twenty-two percent doubt he can handle the leadership role. As for the social network he created, 51 percent of Americans clicked “Like.” The Associated Press-CNBC Poll was conducted May 3-7, 2012 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. ___ Associated Press Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com http://facebook.cnbc.com How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-CNBC Poll on the social networking website Facebook and its upcoming initial public offering was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 3-7. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 703 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://facebook.cnbc.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://facebook.cnbc.com and http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . May 10 American optimism on economy and on Obama’s ability to handle it well is fading, AP-GfK poll shows By TOM RAUM and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are growing more pessimistic about the economy and handling it remains President Barack Obama’s weak spot and biggest challenge in his bid for a second term, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. And the gloomier outlook extends across party lines, including a steep decline in the share of Democrats who call the economy “good,” down from 48 percent in February to just 31 percent now. Almost two-thirds of Americans — 65 percent — disapprove of Obama’s handling of gas prices, up from 58 percent in February. Nearly half, 44 percent, “strongly disapprove.” And just 30 percent said they approve, down from 39 percent in February. These findings come despite a steady decline in gas prices in recent weeks after a surge earlier in the year. The national average for a gallon of gasoline stood at $3.75, down from a 2012 peak of $3.94 on April 1. U.S. presidents have limited ability to affect gas prices, which are determined in international markets. However, the party out of power always blames whoever is president at the time for high gas prices, as Republican Mitt Romney is doing now and as Democrat Obama did in 2008 when George W. Bush sat in the Oval Office. Of all the issues covered by the poll, Obama’s ratings on gas prices were his worst. The public’s views tilt negative on his handling of the overall economy, 52 percent disapprove while 46 percent approve. In February, Americans were about evenly divided on his handling of the issue. The economy is the No. 1 issue in the presidential race, thanks to the deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression and one of the shallowest-ever recoveries. While the recession officially ended in summer 2009, unemployment remains stubbornly high, at 8.1 percent in April. Some 12.5 million Americans are out of work. The increasing skepticism toward the recovery tracks a weakening overall economy as measured by the gross domestic product, and matches economic growth downgrades by many economic forecasters. Against this background, the weak economy looms as a huge liability for Obama, and any drop in public confidence in his ability to deal with it can threaten his re-election prospects. Although Obama held broad advantages over Romney on handling social issues and protecting the country, when it came to the economy about the same percentage said they trust Romney to handle it as trust Obama. Mindful of Obama’s vulnerability, Romney focuses frequently on the economy, suggesting that his business background makes him the candidate who can create jobs. Like most Republicans, he blames Obama’s policies for making the economy worse. Obama acknowledges that times remain hard for many, but says conditions are slowly improving. He suggests the best chance for full recovery is if voters stick with him. Heather Beckman, 29, of Lantana, Fla., is a Democrat who said she’s undecided about her vote but leaned to Obama. She believes the president can put the economy back on track, but not by himself. “At some point, the Republicans and Democrats have to come together to turn the economy around. As well as the rest of the country.” However, Republican Roni Lovell, 68, of Edgewood, Wash., said Romney’s the one to help the economy turn the corner. “He has helped some really big companies come out of their financial woes,” said the retired school administrator. “Obama has proved he can’t do it and it’s time someone else gives it a try.” The poll shows that optimism on an economic recovery earlier this year has all but stalled. The share of Americans describing the economy as “good” dropped 10 points since February, to 20 percent. Two-thirds see the economy as “poor” and about one in seven say it’s somewhere in between. And just 22 percent say the economy got better in the past month, down from 28 percent saying so in February. Democrats remain more optimistic about the economy in the coming year than do independents and Republicans, but still, the percentage that is hopeful for improvement in the next year dipped 10 points since February. Fewer than one in three expect their household’s economic fortunes to improve in the coming year, down from 37 percent in February. Eighteen percent see their finances as worsening, up from 11 percent in February. And 35 percent expect the unemployment rate, which has been inching down for months, to start going back up. Thirty percent thought that in February. Independents are closer to Republicans than Democrats on that issue, with only 18 percent of independents and Republicans optimistic that the jobless rate will improve, while 40 percent of Democrats expect it to. For now, Obama remains popular. His approval rating stands at 53 percent. But a stalling recovery could cause it to slide. The AP-GfK poll was conducted May 3-7 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Follow Tom Raum and Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/tomraum and http://www.twitter.com/jennagiesta How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 3-7. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 703 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. May 09 AP-GfK Poll: Voters tend to trust and like Obama; Romney may gain on economic front AP-GfK Poll: Voters tend to trust and like Obama; Romney may gain on economic front By CHARLES BABINGTON, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama’s popularity among women, minorities and independents is giving him an early edge over his likely GOP rival, Mitt Romney, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. The Democratic president also earns strong marks on empathy, sincerity, likeability and social issues. But Americans are split over which candidate can best handle the economy, which might open pathways for Romney six months before the November election. Half of registered voters say they would back Obama in November, while 42 percent favor Romney, the AP-GfK poll found. About a quarter of voters indicated they are persuadable, meaning they are undecided or could change their minds before Election Day. Forty-one percent of voters say they are certain to vote for Obama, and 32 percent say they are locked in for Romney. The nationwide poll of 1,004 adults comes as Romney is focusing heavily on fundraising after gaining endorsements from of all but one of his GOP rivals, and conservative voters are reminding politicians of their muscle. Republicans in Indiana on Tuesday ousted a six-term senator accused of being too friendly to Obama, and North Carolina voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. On Wednesday, however, Obama endorsed gay marriage, a sign that he is eager to fire up young and liberal voters even if it costs him some support in battleground states such as North Carolina, which he narrowly won in 2008. In the AP-GfK poll, Americans give Obama an edge over Romney on numerous attributes, but handling the economy is a key exception. The public is divided over whether Obama or Romney would do a better job on the issue that strategists say will dominate the fall election. Forty-six percent prefer Obama on this topic, and 44 percent prefer Romney. Romney, who oversaw the restructuring of several companies while at Bain Capital, says he understands the private sector better than Obama does. Democrats dispute the claim. If the economic recovery continues to limp slowly, as it has in the past two months, Republicans say voters will become more open to Romney’s campaign. On other issues: Half of adults say Obama is the stronger leader, while 39 percent choose Romney; Obama is more trusted to handle taxes and social issues, and to protect the country. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who has changed his stance on some important issues over the past 18 years, may need to shore up his image on questions of credibility and sincerity. More than half of adults say Obama is the one who more often says what he believes, while 31 percent choose Romney on that measure. Morris Griffin, 76, a Democratic-leaning voter from Liberty, Miss., is among those who question Romney’s consistency. “He changes his mind every other day,” said Griffin, a Marine veteran. “This is the guy that didn’t want to save the automotive industry some time back, and now he says he’s the one that had idea for saving it.” Still, Griffin said there is a 25 percent chance he will change his mind and not vote for Obama. Obama’s biggest advantages are among women and minorities. His biggest problem is with whites who lack college degrees. Female voters favor the president by 54 percent to 39 percent. Men are evenly split, with 46 percent for each candidate. That’s largely in line with the 2008 “gender gap” that helped Obama win the White House. Romney draws the backing of half of all white voters, while Obama gets 43 percent. White voters with college degrees split 50 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney. Whites without college degrees break 53 percent for Romney to 38 percent for Obama. The president continues to draw strong support from black voters; 90 percent favor him; only 5 percent back Romney. Obama holds an edge among independent voters, an important but easily misunderstood group. Independents neither identify with nor lean toward the Democratic or Republican parties, but not all are swing voters. Some are strongly liberal or conservative, so they can be just as committed to a candidate as some partisans. The AP-GfK poll found 42 percent of independents backing Obama, 30 percent backing Romney and about a quarter undecided. Fifty-five percent said they remain persuadable. Marianne Noble, a retired teacher from Eveleth, Minn., is an independent voter who supports Obama. “I think he’s a good president,” she said. “He needs a little more time, four more years to fulfill his potential.” Noble, 83, said Romney “skirts around certain issues. He’s not very committed to a certain stance.” But Rebecca Fabrizio, a Republican from Henderson, Ky., said she will gladly vote against Obama. Romney “is not my favorite, but out of my choices, that would be the one,” said Fabrizio, 49, a retired nurse with three grown children. She said Obama “wants to be president of the united world. He wants to be so loved… king of the world.” Romney, she said, “is more willing to listen to both sides of the story, get all the facts before he decides something.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted May 3-7, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The poll included interviews with 871 registered voters; results among that group have an error margin of plus or minus 4.2 points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy Anderson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 presidential election was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 3-7. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults, including 871 registered voters. Interviews were conducted with 703 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Topline results are available at http://ap-gfkpoll.com or http://surveys.ap.org May 09 AP-GfK Poll: Support for war in Afghanistan at new low of 27 percent By ANNE GEARAN, AP National Security Writer WASHINGTON (AP) — Support for the war in Afghanistan has reached a new low, with only 27 percent of Americans saying they back the effort and about half of those who oppose the war saying the continued presence of American troops in Afghanistan is doing more harm than good, according to an AP-GfK poll. In results released Wednesday, 66 percent opposed the war, with 40 percent saying they were “strongly” opposed. A year ago, 37 percent favored the war, and in the spring of 2010, support was at 46 percent. Eight percent strongly supported the war in the new poll. The poll found that far fewer people than last year think the killing of Osama bin Laden by U.S. troops increased the threat of terrorism against Americans. Overall, 27 percent say the al-Qaida leader’s death resulted in an increased terror threat, 31 percent believe his death decreased the threat of terrorism and 38 percent say it has had no effect. The poll was conducted before the revelation this week of a recent al-Qaida plot to blow up a U.S.-bound airliner with an underwear bomb. Chris Solomon, an independent from Fuquay-Varina, N.C., is among the respondents who strongly oppose the war. He said the military mission has reached the limits of its ability to help Afghans or make Americans any safer, and he would close down the war immediately if he could. While the rationale for the war is to fight al-Qaida, most of the day-to-day combat is against an entrenched Taliban insurgency that will outlast the foreign fighters, he said. ”What are we really doing there? Who are we helping?” he said in an interview. Yet nearly half, 48 percent, said the continued presence of U.S. troops in Afghanistan is doing more to help Afghanistan become a stable democracy, while 36 percent said the opposite and 14 percent said they didn’t know. Among those opposed to the war, 49 percent say U.S. troops are hurting more than helping. Three-quarters of those who favor the war think they are doing more to help. Republicans are most apt to see U.S. forces as helping, with 56 percent saying so, followed by 47 percent of Democrats. Among independents, more say troops are hurting Afghanistan’s efforts to become a stable democracy (43 percent) than helping (32 percent). President Barack Obama has promised to keep fighting forces in Afghanistan until the end of 2014, despite the declining popular support. The effort to hand off primary responsibility for fighting the war to Afghan soldiers will be the main focus of a gathering of NATO leaders that Obama will host later this month in Chicago. That shift away from front-line combat is expected to come next year, largely in response to growing opposition to the war in the United States and among NATO allies fighting alongside about 88,000 U.S. forces. The shift makes some military commanders uneasy, as does any suggestion that the U.S. fighting force be cut rapidly next year. Obama has promised a steady drawdown. Obama acknowledged the rising frustration during a surprise visit to Afghanistan last week. He signed a 10-year security pact with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and congratulated U.S. troops on the anniversary of bin Laden’s death. He told troops that he is ending the war but that more of their friends will die before it is over. “I recognize that many Americans are tired of war,” he said then. “I will not keep Americans in harm’s way a single day longer than is absolutely required for our national security. But we must finish the job we started in Afghanistan and end this war responsibly.” As of Tuesday, at least 1,834 members of the U.S. military had died in Afghanistan as a result of the U.S.-led invasion in late 2001, according to an Associated Press count. Obama has argued that his persistence in hunting down bin Laden is one reason to re-elect him, and his on-time handling of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is another. Obama closed down the Iraq war on the timetable set when he took office and expanded the Afghan fight that had been neglected in favor of Iraq. He is now scaling back in Afghanistan, bringing troops home by the tens of thousands. A small U.S. counterterrorism and training force may remain in the country after 2014. But in a trend that complicates discussion of the war in this year’s presidential campaign, support for the war is plummeting even among Republicans. People who identified themselves as Republicans backed the war at 37 percent, down from 58 percent a year ago. Among Democrats, support dropped from 30 percent last year to 19 percent now. About a quarter, 27 percent, of independents favor the effort, similar to the level last year. The war, which will be in its 12th year on Election Day in November, has an inconclusive balance sheet at best. It has brought greater security to many parts of the impoverished country strategically situated between Iran and Pakistan, and largely flushed the al-Qaida terror network from its former training ground. But the war has failed to break the Taliban-led insurgency or pressure the insurgents to begin serious peace negotiations with the U.S.-backed Afghan government. The civilian government has not capitalized on the elbow room that more than 100,000 foreign fighting forces provided to build up its own ability to govern the entire country and push the Taliban to the political fringe. Obama was hosting NATO’s top officer at the White House on Wednesday to finalize the agenda for NATO leaders. They are trying to show that NATO nations are committed to keep fighting now but will stick to the plan agreed at the last leaders’ summit in 2010 to end the war by 2015. But the summit will be a national security debut for France’s new Socialist leader, Francois Hollande, who has vowed to pull French troops out by the end of this year. That’s two years earlier than the rest of the alliance has pledged. Slightly more than half of Americans, 53 percent, said they approve of Obama’s handling of the war, while 42 percent disapprove. Obama hit a high mark in AP-GfK polling on that question a year ago, just after the killing of bin Laden. Then, 65 percent said they approved of his handling of the situation in Afghanistan. The poll showed 64 percent approve of Obama’s handling of terrorism issues, and 31 percent disapprove. Elizabeth Kabalka of Chattanooga, Tenn., said she somewhat approves of the war and is generally pleased by Obama’s handling of it. An independent voter, she said Obama is doing about as well managing the war as anyone could. ”He’s got a really crappy job,” she said. “I’ve been pleased with him. He’s really tried to stick to a position.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted May 3-7 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. ___ AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on terrorism and the war in Afghanistan was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 3-7. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,004 adults. Interviews were conducted with 703 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Mar 08 AP-GfK Poll: Obama’s health overhaul still unpopular, but fewer expect own care to worsen By JENNIFER AGIESTA and RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly two years after President Barack Obama signed landmark legislation to cover the uninsured, a new poll finds his health care overhaul is neither better liked nor better understood. But as the Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, the AP-GfK poll shows that Americans are less concerned that their own personal health care will suffer as a result of it. Shortly after the law passed in 2010, nearly half — 47 percent — said they expected the quality of their care to worsen. Now just 32 percent say that’s their worry. Most of the law’s major changes have yet to take effect, and dire predictions — of lost jobs, soaring premiums and long waits to see the doctor — have not materialized. Provisions that have gone into effect, including extended coverage for young adults on their parents’ insurance and relief for seniors with high prescription costs, only had a modest impact on health care spending. Lee Sisson, 63, a semi-retired businessman from Winter Haven, Fla., says he figures that he might be better off personally as a result of the overhaul. For example, it would limit how much health insurance companies can charge older adults. But self-interest hasn’t made Sisson a supporter. ”As a guy that’s semi-retired, the law would probably benefit me, and I’m still against it because it’s not good for our country,” said Sisson. He’s concerned about the cost of new government programs getting passed on to future generations. Most of the drop in people saying they believe their care will worsen actually comes from those like Sisson, who are opposed to it. Of the law’s opponents, 55 percent now say their care will worsen. But in April 2010, soon after the law passed, that share was 67 percent. Overall, half of Americans say they don’t think the quality of their care will change, while 14 percent expect it to improve. The health care debate may be getting less edgy, but it’s unclear how much it will help Obama and Democrats heading into a contentious 2012 election season. Americans remain cool to the major domestic accomplishment of the president’s first term, even if they like some of the law’s provisions. The poll found that 35 percent of Americans support the health care law overhaul, while 47 percent oppose it. That’s about the same split as when it passed. Then, 39 percent supported it and 50 percent opposed it. Opposition remains strongest among seniors, many of whom object that Medicare cuts were used to help finance coverage for younger uninsured people. ”We were supposed to have a nice, relaxed retirement, and now we are scared,” said Nancy Deister Knaack, 65, of Leawood, Kan., a retired special education teacher. “We don’t know what’s going to happen.” Confusion about the complex legislation has not helped Obama sell it to the public, contributing to an atmosphere in which wild charges about potential repercussions readily find an audience. Only about three in ten say they understand the law extremely or very well. Most, 44 percent, say they understand it just somewhat, while 29 percent say they understand it not too well or not well at all. On the key issue before the Supreme Court, however, public opinion is clear. Nearly 6 in 10 in say they oppose the law’s requirement that Americans carry health insurance, except in cases of financial hardship, or pay a fine to the government. Opponents argue that such a mandate is an unconstitutional expansion of federal power, amounting to Congress ordering private citizens to buy a particular product. The administration and many experts believe that the overhaul cannot work without an insurance requirement. The law guarantees that people with pre-existing medical problems can get coverage. Therefore, without a mandate, many healthy people may just postpone buying insurance until they get sick, driving up costs. Even many Democrats are uneasy about the insurance requirement, although it can be fulfilled by getting coverage through an employer, a government program or by directly buying a policy, in many cases with the help of federal subsidies. Las Vegas software engineer Michael Hugh, 37, says he supports the president and intends to vote for him, but the health care law should be revised. ”I am for the concept of it, but I am against the penalties,” he said. “It’s a good idea that they are taking down a wrong path because people shouldn’t be penalized for not having health care.” Hugh is currently uninsured but says he plans to get coverage through a new job. While opposition to an individual insurance requirement remains strong, the poll found that 60 percent support putting the obligation on employers. Businesses are currently under no legal requirement to provide insurance, and the law would penalize medium to large companies that fail to do so. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted February 16-20, 2012 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: AP-GfK poll – http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Health care interactive – http://hosted.ap.org/interactives/2011/healthcare How the poll on the health care law was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the health care law was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Feb 23 AP-GfK Poll: Millionaire tax popular, but people prefer spending cuts to tax hikes to cut deficits By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Most people like President Barack Obama’s proposal to make millionaires pay a significant share of their incomes in taxes. Yet they’d still rather cut spending than boost taxes to balance the federal budget, an Associated Press-GfK poll shows, giving Republicans an edge over Democrats in their core ideological dispute over the nation’s fiscal ills. The survey suggests that while Obama’s election-year tax plan targeting people making at least $1 million a year has won broad support, it has done little to shift people’s basic views in the long-running partisan war over how best to tame budget deficits that lately have exceeded $1 trillion annually. “Everybody should be called to sacrifice. They should be in the pot with the rest of us,” Mike Whittles, 62, a Republican and retired police officer from Point Pleasant, N.J., said of his support for Obama’s tax proposal for the wealthy. But Whittles said he still prefers cutting government spending over raising taxes because of federal waste and what he calls “too many rules, too many regulations.” Sixty-five percent of the people in the AP-GfK poll favor Obama’s plan to require people making $1 million or more pay taxes equal to at least 30 percent of their income. Just 26 percent opposed Obama’s idea. Yet by 56 percent to 31 percent, more embraced cuts in government services than higher taxes as the best medicine for the budget, according to the survey, which was conducted Feb. 16 to 20. That response has changed only modestly since it was first asked in the AP-GfK poll last March. The question on Obama’s tax on the rich was not asked previously. The poll showed that overall, more people have a positive view of Democrats than Republicans, a ray of hope for Obama and his fellow Democrats with the approach of November’s presidential and congressional elections. Fifty-four percent in the poll gave Democrats favorable ratings compared to 46 percent for Republicans, similar to results in January 2011, at the start of the newly elected Congress in which Republicans have run the House and Democrats wield a slender Senate majority. Though embraced by congressional Democrats, Obama’s proposal on taxing millionaires more has virtually no chance of passage by Congress in the political heat of this year’s campaigns. But it stands as a rallying cry for Democrats — about 9 in 10 of whom supported the plan in the poll — and it contrasts with proposals by the remaining major GOP presidential candidates, who would lower the current 35 percent top income tax rate. Obama has spent months touting his plan, nicknamed the Buffett rule after Warren Buffett, the billionaire who has complained that the rich don’t pay enough taxes and that his own tax rate has been lower than his secretary’s. The wealthy Mitt Romney, a leading GOP presidential contender, has released tax returns showing he paid a rate of around 15 percent the past two years. Illustrating the wide acceptance for Obama’s tax proposal for the rich, the poll showed it was supported by nearly two-thirds of independents and 4 in 10 Republicans. It also won backing from 6 in 10 whites and half of conservatives, two groups that traditionally are more likely to support the GOP, as well as by 6 in 10 people earning at least $100,000 a year. Not everyone supports the idea. “If their money goes to taxes, how will they afford more employees, better equipment, better vehicles?” said Republican Cheryl Mickler, 31, of Hope Mills, N.C. As for the differing strategies for deficit reduction, more than three-fourths of Republicans and the largest share of independents preferred cutting government services. Democrats leaned toward tax increases, but by a narrower 49 percent to 38 percent. Republicans have an 8 percentage point advantage over Democrats in the public’s trust for handling budget deficits, essentially unchanged in recent months. The GOP has the same edge for protecting the country, an issue it usually dominates. Peoples’ trust in the two parties is about even for handling the economy, taxes and job creation. Congress continues to receive dismal reviews from voters. Just 19 percent approve of the job Congress is doing, virtually unchanged from last December. That’s not far from Congress’ worst-ever approval rate in the brief history of the AP-GfK poll of 12 percent last August, shortly after Obama and lawmakers resolved a stubborn standoff over raising the debt limit. “We put them there to do their job and they’re not doing their job,” said Gary Witalison, 54, a residential painter in Fish Creek, Wis. “They’re not working things out. Work together.” The AP-GfK poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications and involved cell phone and landline interviews with 1,000 randomly chosen adults. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. ___ AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll on the federal budget and Congress was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the federal budget and Congress was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline results available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org Feb 22 AP-GfK Poll: Obama benefits from the economy’s slow climb, earning better grades from both parties By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama is reaping political benefits from the country’s brighter economic mood. A new poll shows that Republicans and Democrats alike are increasingly saying the nation is heading in the right direction and most independents now approve the way he’s addressing the nation’s post-recession period. But trouble could be ahead: Still-struggling Americans are fretting over rising gasoline prices. Just weeks before the summer travel season begins, the Associated Press-GfK survey finds pump prices rising in importance and most people unhappy with how Democratic president has handled the issue. It’s seemingly no coincidence that Obama this week is promoting the expansion of domestic oil and gas exploration and the development of new forms of energy. It’s his latest attempt to show that he, more than any of the Republican presidential contenders, knows that voters’ pocketbooks remain pinched even as the economy improves overall. And on that question of empathy, solid majorities continue to view him as someone who “understands the problems of ordinary Americans” and “cares about people like you,” the AP-GfK survey found. There is evidence that the nation is becoming markedly more optimistic, and that Obama benefits from that attitude. Thirty percent in the poll describe the economy as “good,” a 15-point increase since December and the highest level since the AP-GfK poll first asked the question in 2009. Roughly the same share say the economy got better in the past month, while 18 percent said it got worse, the most positive read in over a year. Looking ahead, four in 10 said they expect the economy to get better in the next year and a third said they think the number of unemployed people in the U.S. will decrease, the highest share on either question since last spring. A quarter of those surveyed said they expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, while 31 percent said it would stay the same, the poll found. As optimism has risen, Obama has received a corresponding bump in his approval rating for handling the economy. Forty-eight percent now say they approve of how he’s handling it, up 9 points from December. Still, for some it’s hard to sense an improvement — or give Obama credit for it — when any extra money is being gobbled up at the gasoline pump. ”I give him credit for trying to make improvements, but I don’t believe it’s had that much effect,” said Michael Lee Real of Indianola, Iowa, a city water authority worker who counts himself as a Republican-leaning independent. The cost of gasoline is “one of the big things,” says Real, 58. “It fluctuates so much, it makes it hard for me to budget my money.” Overall, seven of 10 respondents called gas prices deeply important, up 6 points from December. Those who view gas prices as “extremely important” rose 9 points, to nearly 39 percent. The average cost of a gallon has risen 30 cents in that time, according to the Energy Information Administration. Views on the president’s handling of the issue are about the same as in December: Six in 10 respondents disapprove, including 36 percent who strongly feel that way, while 39 percent approve. Presidents don’t have a great deal of control over oil or gas prices, which now are being influenced by higher U.S. demand and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program. But few factors generate as much interest and anxiety among Americans. The rise in prices, faced almost daily by voters, could undercut Obama’s argument that he’s strengthening the economy and making families more financially secure. Though Obama’s approval rating on the economy has climbed, his negative rating on handling gas prices is stagnant. Just 39 percent approve of what he’s doing there, and 58 percent disapprove. Republicans, locked in battle for the right to face Obama in the general election, expect gas prices to be a top issue by the time Americans set out on their summer vacations. The four vying for the GOP nomination already are warning of higher prices and are pushing for more drilling and relaxed regulations on domestic oil production. Some are talking dollars and cents: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is dangling the prospect of $2.50-a-gallon gas if he’s elected; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is warning of $5-a-gallon gas if he’s not. Generally, the public’s approval of Obama has risen with the economy’s climb from recession. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent in January, the lowest level in nearly three years. The housing market is flashing signs of health ahead of the spring buying season, with mortgage rates still low, sales of previously occupied homes at their highest level since May 2010, and more first-time buyers making purchases. The nation is far from a full recovery. Millions of Americans remain out of work. And Wall Street investors still worry over the details of Greece’s economic bailout plan. According to the poll, Obama’s overall approval rating ticked upward slightly, from 44 percent in December to 49 percent now. The 9-point approval increase for his handling of the economy comes from Democrats and independents, constituencies crucial to Obama’s re-election hopes. Among Democrats, his approval on the economy has shot from 67 percent to 83 percent. Among independents, 49 percent now approve, up from 38 percent in December. Obama also gained support among women during a period in which his administration seemed to stumble over whether religious employers should be forced to pay for contraception. In overall approval, Obama rebounded from 43 percent among women in December to 53 percent now, according to the survey. And half of all adults now say Obama deserves to be re-elected, a 7-point rise from December that reverses a downward trend that had been in place since May. More than eight in 10 Democrats say he should be elected to a second term, and half of all independents feel the same way, the survey found. The AP-GfK poll was conducted Feb. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and had a margin of error of 4.1 percent. ___ AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: www.ap-GfKpoll.com How the poll on President Obama and the economy was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Feb 22 AP-GfK Poll: GOP voters split between Romney, Santorum; Obama tops all 4 Republicans By LAURIE KELLMAN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — A surging Rick Santorum is running even with Mitt Romney atop the Republican presidential field, but neither candidate is faring well against President Barack Obama eight months before Americans vote, a new survey shows. Obama tops 50 percent support when matched against each of the four GOP candidates and holds a significant lead over each of them, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll. Republicans, meanwhile, are divided on whether they’d rather see Romney or Santorum capture the nomination, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul lagging behind. It’s a troubling sign for the better-funded Romney as the GOP race heads toward crucial votes in his home state of Michigan, in Arizona and in an array of states on Super Tuesday, March 6. ”I’d pick Santorum, because it seems Romney may be waffling on a few issues and I’m not sure I trust him,” said Thomas Stehlin, 66, of St. Clair Shores, Mich. He thinks the Detroit-born son of a Michigan governor is facing a strong challenge from Santorum in his home state because of his tangled answers on the auto industry bailout. Also, he says, there’s this: Romney, the self-described can-do turnaround artist of the corporate world and the troubled Salt Lake City Olympics, with his millions of dollars, has been unable to vanquish his political opponents. ”That may be the reason right there,” said Stehlin, a retired government worker and a Republican. “He spends lots of money and he doesn’t get anywhere.” Nationally, Republicans are evenly split between Romney and Santorum. The poll found 33 percent would most like to see Santorum get the nomination, while 32 percent prefer Romney. Gingrich and Paul each had 15 percent support. Romney’s fall from presumed front-runner to struggling establishment favorite has given his opponents an opening as he tries to expand his support. His Republican rivals have stepped in claiming to be a more consistent conservative and viable opponent against Obama, and each of the last three AP-GfK polls has found a different contender battling Romney for the top spot. But Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator and abortion foe, has hit his stride at a key moment in the nomination contest. Santorum’s spike comes as satisfaction with the field of candidates remains tepid and interest in the contest is cools. About 6 in 10 Republicans in the poll say they are satisfied with the people running for the nomination, stagnant since December and below the 66 percent that felt that way in October. Only 23 percent are strongly satisfied with the field and 4 in 10 said they are dissatisfied with the candidates running, the poll found. And deep interest in the race is slipping: Just 40 percent of Republicans say they have a great deal of interest in following the contest, compared with 48 percent in December. ”It seems like in the last month or so everything’s just chilled out,” said James Jackson of Fort Worth, Texas, a 40-year-old independent who leans Republican. “I just haven’t been following it lately.” Santorum remains Romney’s biggest threat. He won GOP contests in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado, stunning the GOP establishment that Romney has methodically courted since his first bid for the GOP nomination in 2008. The poll suggested more people are getting to know and like Santorum, with 44 percent of all adults saying they have a favorable impression of him, compared with 25 percent in December. The share with negative views has grown as well, with 42 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Santorum. Among Republicans in that time period, Santorum has shot from 37 percent to 70 percent favorable. There’s evidence that Santorum’s comments about social issues may not have hurt him so far among women. The former Pennsylvania senator has been unapologetic in his opposition to abortion and his concerns about working moms, women in combat and contraception — some of the many examples he cites while making the case that he would draw a clearer contrast than Romney against Obama. For all that, there’s little evident gender gap between Romney and Santorum, the AP-GfK poll showed. Santorum, who made some of the comments while the poll was being conducted Feb. 16-20, runs even with Romney among both Republican men and women. And Republican women may be rallying to his defense: Seventy-five percent of GOP women have a favorable impression of Santorum, compared with 66 percent of Republican men, the poll found. The enduring split between Romney and whichever Republican opponent is up at any moment reflects a familiar dispute in the broader GOP over whether to focus on social issues or financial matters in presidential races. According to exit and entrance polls conducted so far this cycle, Romney has carried voters who called the economy their top issue in 4 out of 5 states, while Santorum has drawn broader support among those calling abortion their top concern. Abortion has lagged well behind the economy as a priority for voters through the Nevada caucuses, but the recent focus on social issues in the campaign could increase its importance. Among conservative Republicans, Santorum holds a decisive edge, with 41 percent preferring him and 27 percent supporting Romney. But ask moderate and liberal Republicans the same question and the results flip: Forty percent favor Romney while 20 percent prefer Santorum. Similarly, tea party Republicans also favor Santorum over Romney, 44 percent to 23 percent. Non-tea partyers tilt toward Romney, with 38 percent preferring him and 25 percent supporting Santorum. Santorum enjoys an edge among Republicans age 45 and up, those paying the closest attention to the GOP race and born-again and evangelical voters. Looking ahead to the general election, Obama holds an 8-point lead over Romney, 9 points over Santorum and 10 points over Gingrich or Paul, the survey found. Notably, the survey showed the president dominating among independents, a group central to Obama’s 2008 victory, whose support for him had faltered in recent months. According to the poll, 6 in 10 independents would choose Obama over any of the Republicans. There was good news for Republicans, too: Any of the four Republican candidates would likely top Obama among those age 65 and over, as well as among whites without college degrees. For their part, Democrats were watching with some glee. ”It’s been a great show,” said Karen Clark, 38, a radio personality from Raleigh, N.C., who’s voting for Obama. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Feb. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writers Dennis Junius and Stacy Anderson contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 elections and Republican candidates was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including 450 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Jan 05 AP-Petside.com Poll: 7 in 10 pet owners: Shelters should kill only animals too sick or aggressive for adoption By SUE MANNING, Associated Press LOS ANGELES (AP) — Seven in 10 pet owners say they believe animal shelters should be allowed to euthanize animals only when they are too sick to be treated or too aggressive to be adopted. Only a quarter of the people who took part in a recent AP-Petside.com poll said animal shelters should sometimes be allowed to put animals down as a population control measure. Gisela Aguila, 51, of Miramar, Fla., believes shelter animals should only be euthanized when there is no chance they’ll be adopted — for example, if they are extremely ill or aggressive. “I don’t think shelters should be euthanizing animals to control the population,” she said. She’d like to see an end to shelters destroying animals when they run out of room, saying, “We are way too civilized of a society to allow this.” But Leslie Surprenant, 53, of Saugerties, N.Y., believes shelters should be allowed to control populations. She says no-kill shelters that only accept animals with good prospects for adoption or that turn away animals once the shelter reaches capacity do not solve the problem. “That doesn’t truly mean no-kill shelters. It means there are more animals out on the streets being hit by cars and starving and living in Dumpsters,” said Surprenant, who has two dogs and a cat. “It does not mean the general population is lower; it just means that they’ve opted not to kill.” Surprenant believes spaying and neutering is the way to go. In fact, higher rates of spaying and neutering in recent decades have cut the number of abandoned puppies and kittens, which in turn has cut euthanasia rates. Before 1970, about 20 million animals were euthanized each year in this country. In 2011, fewer than 4 million abandoned animals were euthanized. Younger pet owners are most likely to favor no-kill policies, with 79 percent of those under 30 saying shelters should only euthanize animals that are untreatable or too aggressive, compared with 67 percent of those age 50 or over saying that. The poll results are encouraging to leaders of the nation’s no-kill movement, who’d like to see the U.S. become a “no-kill nation” with homes for every adoptable pet, and euthanasia reserved only for extremely ill or aggressive animals. Any plan will take teamwork between shelters with government contracts that must accept every animal and the no-kill shelters that often only take animals they can help, said Ed Sayres, president and CEO of the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. Rich Avanzino, president of Alameda-based Maddie’s Fund, pioneered no-kill in San Francisco in the early ’90s through a pact between the open-admission city shelter and the local Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. “We are just a breath away from doing what is right for the animals,” Avanzino said. He believes the country can achieve no-kill status by 2015, partly due to corporate giving to animal causes, which totaled about $30 million in 2010 and is expected to reach $70 million by 2015. That money can help with spaying, neutering and outreach, he said. Public attitudes are also changing, with more people saying it’s unacceptable for pets to languish or die in an animal shelter, Avanzino said. Avanzino pioneered the no-kill concept in San Francisco. Sayres succeeded him and nurtured it, then went to New York and implemented it there in a much bigger way. The model is the same, but instead of two partner agencies like in San Francisco, New York has 155, Sayres said. About 44,000 animals enter New York City shelters each year. Since Sayres has been there, the euthanasia rate has dropped from 74 percent to 27 percent. The ASPCA has also teamed up with 11 communities from Tampa, Fla., to Spokane, Wash., in no-kill efforts, Sayres said. He believes he will see a no-kill nation, at least for dogs, in his lifetime. Cats may take a little longer because of the large feral population, he said. The euthanasia issue attracted some attention this week when it was reported that a stray cat being held at a West Valley City, Utah, animal shelter survived two trips to the shelter’s gas chamber. The shelter has stopped trying to kill the cat, named Andrea, and she has been adopted. Shelter officials are investigating why the gassing failed. Best Friends Animal Society operates the country’s largest no-kill sanctuary for abandoned and abused animals. The Kanab, Utah, preserve is home to 1,700 dogs, cats, birds, rabbits, horses and wildlife undergoing rehabilitation, said Best Friends director Gregory Castle. More than 800 grass-roots rescue organizations belong to Best Friends’ No More Homeless Pets Network and are working to make their communities no-kill, Castle said. Attendance at an annual conference for network members has grown from 250 in 2001 to 1,300 last year. The sanctuary’s newest venture is a groundbreaking effort involving what Castle believes is the largest public-private partnership ever forged in the no-kill movement. Best Friends is going to operate a shelter for the Department of Animal Services in Los Angeles as an adoption and spay and neuter center, he said. All animals will come from six open-admission Los Angeles city shelters. The coalition’s initial goal is 3,000 adoptions and 6,000 sterilization procedures, Castle said. Differences in the varying no-kill campaigns are mostly a matter of nuance, Castle said, and how you define sick and aggressive. Nathan Winograd, director of the Oakland-based No Kill Advocacy Center, believes 95 percent of all animals entering shelters can be adopted or treated. And even though the other 5 percent might be hopelessly injured, ill or vicious, he said they should not all be doomed. Some, if not most of them, can be cared for in hospice centers or sanctuaries, he said. As for pit bulls and other dogs with aggressive reputations, he said shelters need to do a better job of trying to find them homes. The AP-Petside.com Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,118 pet owners. Results among pet owners have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. ___ AP Global Director of Polling Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.petside.com/no-kill-shelters How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on no-kill shelters was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17, 2011. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.6 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all pet owners in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Dec 29 AP-GfK Poll: Americans look back at 2011 with a shudder, greet 2012 with open arms By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are hopeful for what 2012 will bring for their families and the country, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, though most say 2011 was a year they would rather forget. Nearly seven in 10 say the year gone by was a bad one, more than double those who consider it a success, according to the poll. But 62 percent are optimistic about what 2012 will bring for the nation, and more, 78 percent, are hopeful about the year their family will have in 2012. Jeff Wolfe, 33, of Farmington, W.Va., said 2011 treated him well because he was able to find steady work as a lineman. But for the rest of the nation, things were “pretty rough,” with so many Americans looking for jobs, he noted. “For the first time since 2009, I worked all year,” he said. Wolfe said he lost work in 2008 and again in 2010. But in 2011, the father of two school-age children said he was able to catch up on bills, buy his wife a new car and renovate his home. Overall, the poll found 68 percent of Americans described 2011 as a bad year, compared with 29 percent who felt it was a good one. A partisan divide, much like the one that ruled Washington this year, seems the only split in public opinion on 2011. Democrats were most likely to view 2011 positively (40 percent called it good), while independents and Republicans were less effusive. Beyond that, the poll found general agreement that 2011 is best left in the past. Mary Burke, 57, of Ridgeland, S.C., felt economic pain in 2011. She saw prices rise for all of her expenses, from her light bill to groceries. “Paying $5 for a jar of mayonnaise is outrageous,” she said. Food and gas prices surged in 2011, but the most recent Consumer Price Index shows inflation leveling off. November statistics from the government showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.4 percent, the smallest such rise since April. The AP-GfK poll found consumers are sensing the change. Just 18 percent of adults expect consumer prices to rise at a faster pace in the coming year, the lowest share to say so since the poll first asked the question in March. Most (51 percent) expect prices to rise at the same rate or more slowly. And as the nation’s economic fortunes overall appear to be tilting slightly positive, the public’s expectations for the economy in the coming year are at their highest point since spring. According to the poll, 37 percent expect economic improvement in the next 12 months, compared with 24 percent who think the economy will slide downhill. That’s the first time since May that significantly more people said things will get better than get worse. On a personal level, 36 percent think their household’s financial situation will improve over the next 12 months, while 11 percent think it will worsen. Americans’ financial ebbs and flows affect their personal outlook for 2012. Those whose households have faced a job loss in the past six months or who describe their current financial situation as poor are less optimistic about what 2012 holds for them and their families than others, though that does not carry over to their forecast for the nation in 2012. Optimism about the nation’s path varies with views of the economy’s direction. Those who say things have looked better in the past month are generally optimistic (79 percent), while just half of those who say things are getting worse feel positive about what 2012 holds for the country. And about 6 in 10 of those who distrust the two major political parties to handle the economy or job creation are pessimistic about how 2012 will turn out for the nation. Burke said she is angered by politicians in Washington who she believes fail to look out for the interests of the American people. “They don’t care about me and you,” she said. “They only care how they are going to line their pockets.” As for the economy and nation improving in 2012, she said, “I pray and hope.” The partisan divide in impressions of 2011 persists in the outlook for 2012, with Democrats more optimistic than either Republicans or independents. But expectations for next year’s presidential contest appear not to be a factor. Most partisans on both sides foresee victory for their side in the November 2012 presidential election: Three-quarters of Democrats say they think President Barack Obama will win re-election; three-quarters of Republicans say he will not. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK poll on the public’s outlook on 2012 was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Dec 23 AP-GfK Poll: Why do kids have faith in Santa? Because parents do; 8 in 10 grown-ups believed as tots By CONNIE CASS, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Why do kids believe a chubby guy in a flying sleigh can deliver joy across America? Because their parents do. A whopping 84 percent of grown-ups were once children who trusted in Santa’s magic, and lots cling to it still. Things are changing fast these days, with toddlers wishing for iPads, grade schoolers emailing their Christmas lists and moms wrestling over bargain toys at midnight sales. Despite all the pressures on the rituals of the season, an AP-GfK poll confirms that families are sticking by old St. Nick. “It’s important for kids to have something to believe in,” says great-grandmother Wanda Smith of Norman, Okla. And so they do. Year after year, Santa Claus survives the scoffers and the Scrooges and the 6-year-old playground skeptics. He endures belittling commercials that portray him shopping at Target or taking directions from an iPhone. He shrugs off scolds who say his bagful of toys overshadows the reason for the season. Two-thirds of parents with kids under 18 say Santa’s an important part of their celebrations this year. Moms, especially, have a soft spot for the man in red _ 71 percent of them say he’s important, and that’s a big jump from 58 percent just five years ago. His overall popularity is up slightly from an AP-AOL poll in 2006, before the recession hit. In these bleaker times of homes lost to foreclosure and parents sweating out their next paychecks, the poll shows Santa riding high with families both wealthy and poor. Maybe that’s because the big guy’s always known how to stretch a dollar to make a kid smile. Smith, whose childhood gifts were mostly handmade by her mother _ things like cookies and knit scarves _ remembers that every year Santa Claus managed to put one present under the tree for her to share with her two brothers (four more siblings came later). “One year it was a bicycle, one year we had a sled. One year we got a puppy _ his name was Jack and he was a border collie,” recalls Smith, now 70. “We didn’t have a lot,” she said, “but we didn’t know it. Our mother and daddy made it a wonderful time for us.” In multicultural America, Father Christmas isn’t just for Christians any more. Three-fourths of non-Christian adults say they believed in Santa when they were children. And half feel he’s important to their holiday celebrations now. Developmental psychologist Cyndy Scheibe, who’s been interviewing kids about Santa since 1986, said lots of Jewish children told her that Santa Claus was real, even though he didn’t stop at their houses on Christmas Eve. And many non-Christian parents embrace Santa because they see Christmas serving as a secular as well as religious holiday in the U.S., she said. “Santa Claus is more than someone who just comes and gives you a present, it’s this whole spirit of giving and magic that you get to be a part of and celebrate,” said Scheibe, an associate professor at Ithaca College in New York. That’s what keeps Santa going over the decades and across cultures, she said. “That, and there’s almost nothing as much fun as getting to see your kid’s face so completely excited.” Scheibe knows firsthand. She used to climb a ladder to the roof every Christmas, her daughter watching, to leave a key tied to a big red bow, because they didn’t have a fireplace. It’s not all snowflakes and mistletoe in Santaland, however. Even among Christians, there’s tension about how big a role, if any, a jolly old elf deserves in the celebration of Christ’s birth. Almost half of Americans polled said Santa detracts from the religious significance of Christmas more than he enhances it. When she was growing up, Naomi Stenberg’s fundamentalist Baptist parents didn’t want her mixed up with Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny or Halloween trick-or-treating. “I didn’t understand why everybody else got to believe in Santa, and me and my brother didn’t,” says Stenberg, 32, now a stay-at-home mom in Baxter, Minn. “I felt left out.” Her own three children have gotten the full Kris Kringle experience, but sometimes she feels ill-equipped to handle the tough queries from her youngest, 6-year-old Rylen. “She’s been asking questions like how does Santa fit through the chimney,” she said. “I don’t know how to answer things like that.” Matt Hoyt vividly remembers seeing Santa’s black boots peeking out from behind his bedroom curtains when he was a boy. He froze. “I was just trying to pretend to be asleep,” Hoyt said, “so I’d get my presents.” Only much later did he realize those were probably the black shoes of his dad, hanging his new “Star Wars” drapes. Now Hoyt, a 35-year-old computer engineer from Houston, is awaiting the birth of his first child in April, and wondering how long that child will believe. In the poll, the median age when adults said they outgrew Santa was 8. Hoyt suspects his child’s generation will turn away even earlier. After all, “They’ve got Google at their fingertips.” But Santa needn’t worry. They’ll come back someday … when they’re parents. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. ___ AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ AP-GfK Poll: Hark! The herald angels sing all year long: Poll finds most believe in ethereal spirits Angels play a major role in the Christmas story, but a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows they are a year-round presence for most, with 77 percent of adults saying they believe in their existence. The poll shows belief in angels is primarily tied to religion, with 88 percent of Christians, 95 percent of evangelical Christians and 94 percent of those who attend weekly religious services of any sort saying they believe in such ethereal beings. But belief in angels is fairly widespread even among the less religious. A majority of non-Christians think angels exist, as do more than 4 in 10 of those who never attend religious services. The finding mirrors a 2006 AP-AOL poll, which found 81 percent believed in angels. How the poll on Santa Claus and angels was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Santa Claus and angels was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Dec 16 AP-GfK Poll: Majority says Obama deserves to be voted out of office By JENNIFER AGIESTA and KEN THOMAS, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Entering 2012, President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects are essentially a 50-50 proposition, with a majority saying the president deserves to be voted out of office despite concerns about the Republican alternatives, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Obama’s overall poll numbers suggest he could be in jeopardy of losing re-election even as the public’s outlook on the economy appears to be improving, the AP-GfK poll found. For the first time since spring, more said the economy got better in the past month than said it got worse. The president’s approval rating on unemployment shifted upward — from 40 percent in October to 45 percent in the latest poll — as the jobless rate fell to 8.6 percent last month, its lowest level since March 2009. But Obama’s approval rating on his handling of the economy overall remains stagnant: 39 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove. Heading into his re-election campaign, the president faces a conflicted public that does not support his steering of the economy, the most dominant issue for Americans, or his reforms to health care, one of his signature accomplishments, yet are grappling with whether to replace him with Republican contenders Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich. The poll found an even divide on whether Americans expect Obama to be re-elected next year. For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 percent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 percent said he deserves another term. The numbers mark a reversal since last May, when 53 percent said Obama should be re-elected while 43 percent said he didn’t deserve four more years. Obama’s overall job approval stands at a new low: 44 percent approve while 54 percent disapprove. The president’s standing among independents is worse: 38 percent approve while 59 percent disapprove. Among Democrats, the president holds steady with an approval rating of 78 percent while only 12 percent of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing. “I think he’s doing the best he can. The problem is the Congress won’t help at all,” said Rosario Navarro, a Democrat and a 44-year-old truck driver from Fresno, Calif., who voted for Obama in 2008 and intends to support him again. Robin Dein, a 54-year-old homemaker from Villanova, Pa., who is an independent, said she supported Republican John McCain in 2008 and has not been impressed with Obama’s economic policies. She intends to support Romney if he wins the GOP nomination. “(Obama) spent the first part of his presidency blaming Bush for everything, not that he was innocent, and now his way of solving anything is by spending more money,” she said. Despite the soft level of support, many are uncertain whether a Republican president would be a better choice. Asked whom they would support next November, 47 percent of adults favored Obama compared with 46 percent for Romney, a former Massachusetts governor. Against Gingrich, the president holds a solid advantage, receiving 51 percent compared with 42 percent for the former House speaker. The potential matchups paint a better picture for the president among independents. Obama receives 45 percent of non-aligned adults compared with 41 percent for Romney. Against Gingrich, Obama holds a wide lead among independents, with 54 percent supporting the president and 31 percent backing the former Georgia congressman. Another piece of good news for Obama: people generally like him personally. Obama’s personal favorability rating held steady at 53 percent, with 46 percent viewing him unfavorably. About three-quarters called him likeable. The economy remains a source of pessimism, though the poll suggests the first positive movement in public opinion on the economy in months. One in five said the economy improved in the last month, double the share saying so in October. Still most expect it to stay the same or get worse. “I suppose you could make some sort of argument that it’s getting better, but I’m not sure I even see that,” said independent voter John Bailey, a 61-year-old education consultant from East Jordan, Mich. “I think it’s bad and it’s gotten worse under (Obama’s) policies. At best, it’s going to stay bad.” Despite the high rate of joblessness, the poll found some optimism on the economy. Although 80 percent described the economy as “poor,” respondents describing it “very poor” fell from 43 percent in October to 34 percent in the latest poll, the lowest since May. Twenty percent said the economy got better in the past month while 37 percent said they expected the economy to improve next year. Yet plenty of warning signs remain for Obama. Only 26 percent said the United States is headed in the right direction while 70 percent said the country was moving in the wrong direction. The president won a substantial number of women voters in 2008 yet there does not appear to be a significant tilt toward Obama among women now. The poll found 44 percent of women say Obama deserves a second term, down from 51 percent in October, while 43 percent of men say the president should be re-elected. About two-thirds of white voters without college degrees say Obama should be a one-term president, while 33 percent of those voters say he should get another four years. Among white voters with a college degree, 57 percent said Obama should be voted out of office. The poll found unpopularity for last year’s health care reform bill, one of Obama’s major accomplishments. About half of the respondents oppose the health care law and support for it dipped to 29 percent from 36 percent in June. Just 15 percent said the federal government should have the power to require all Americans to buy health insurance. Even among Democrats, the health care law has tepid support. Fifty percent of Democrats supported the health care law, compared with 59 percent of Democrats last June. Only about a quarter of independents back the law. The president has taken a more populist tone in his handling of the economy, arguing that the wealthy should pay more in taxes to help pay for the extension of a payroll tax cut that would provide about $1,000 in tax cuts to a family earning about $50,000 a year. Among those with annual household incomes of $50,000 or less, Obama’s approval rating on unemployment climbed to 53 percent, from 43 percent in October. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted December 8-12 2011 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Dec 15 AP-GfK Poll: Most Americans want payroll tax extension, remain furious with Congress, politics By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans want Congress to vote to continue the payroll tax reduction, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll that comes as Democrats and Republicans wrestle over whether to extend the cut through 2012. It’s the latest instance in which lawmakers on Capitol Hill have allowed partisan sniping to hold up a measure to put in place a policy that most Americans support, like ending the Bush tax cuts, cap and trade, and a surcharge on millionaires. The dragged-out debate over whether to extend an expiring payroll tax reduction is one of many developments that have kept voters furious with their leaders all year. On the brink of the 2012 presidential and congressional elections, virtually all Americans are disappointed and frustrated with the political scene and nearly 6 in 10 say they are angry, the AP-GfK survey showed. “It seems like there are parties that only want to get their agenda done,” said liquor store owner James Jacobsen, 47, of East Hartford, Conn. “They’re catering to special interests and not Americans. They are not representing the individual American.” Nearly 6 in 10 respondents say they want Congress to pass the extension, according to the poll. Letting the payroll tax break expire would cost a family making $50,000 about $1,000. Yet, Republicans and Democrats are rejecting each other’s proposals and trying to make law from what’s left, a tactic they’ve used all year on debates over the budget and the nation’s debt. The stalemates have caused a decline in confidence so severe that 15 percent of all adults and 32 percent of political independents say they don’t trust either party to manage the federal budget deficit. Retired postal worker Larry Collier wishes Congress would get on with what help it can give — an assurance to 160 million American workers that their payroll tax cut will be extended through 2012. What really galls him is the inequality: The same Congress hesitating to keep taxes low for working Americans also is hesitating to raise them on the wealthy. Congress this year ignored President Barack Obama’s proposal to let expire tax cuts on the richest Americans and impose additional taxes on those who make more than $1 million, though polls showed most people supported those policies. “Those millionaires wouldn’t even miss that money,” Collier, of Pace, Fla., said, noting that he voted for George W. Bush and is now a Democrat. Economic discontent has spilled over into the political sphere all year and could influence the 2012 presidential and congressional elections. Occupy Wall Street and other protests against inequality have grabbed some attention from politicians, with Democrats the most supportive. Last week, a group of demonstrators camped out on the National Mall, crashed stately holiday parties and marched on Capitol Hill, demanding that Congress extend the payroll tax and insurance for the long-term unemployed. On the payroll tax deduction, 58 percent of respondents said they want Congress to extend the break, while 35 percent want it to expire. Democrats and independents are the strongest supporters of continuing the tax cut, while Republicans were evenly divided. But the difference is more partisan than ideological: Conservatives supported an extension, 54 percent to the 42 percent who prefer to let the reduction expire. Those with annual incomes below $50,000 more strongly support the extension compared with higher-income respondents, and seniors were more likely than younger adults to back the extension. On Wednesday, there was little sign Congress was listening. Democrats who control the Senate rejected a GOP-ruled House plan to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits, but only with cuts to spending and sped-up approval of an oil pipeline. The Senate is crafting its own proposal in response. If an agreement is not reached by the end of the year, payroll taxes will jump on Jan. 1 from this year’s 4.2 percent back to their normal level of 6.2 percent. Americans are virtually out of patience, the polling shows. And their distrust crosses party lines. “I really don’t feel that they are having the best interests of us as a people,” said Rogersville, Tenn., resident Andrea Stafford, 38, a single mother of two who has been unemployed since the summer. “And when I say people,” she added, “I don’t mean millionaires and government officials. I’m talking about the normal person who gets up and fixes their children’s lunch and has to take off work when their child is sick because we don’t have nannies.” The AP-GfK poll found congressional approval near its all-time low and nearly all Americans disappointed with politics. Eighty-four percent of the respondents disapproved of the way Congress is doing its job, with at least 8 in 10 Republicans, Democrats and independents feeling that way. As for how to balance the federal budget, more now favor cutting government services as the best means to bring federal spending into balance. Sixty percent think lawmakers should focus on budget cuts over tax increases. That figure had been as low as 53 percent in August, during the showdown over raising the country’s debt limit. The biggest shift on that question has come from independents. In the August poll, 37 percent said lawmakers should focus on increasing taxes and 42 percent said cutting services. Now, that divide stands at 28 percent for raising taxes and 59 percent for cutting services. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. ___ AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Congress and the payroll tax was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org Dec 14 Obama marking end of Iraq war By ERICA WERNER Associated Press FORT BRAGG, N.C. (AP) — President Barack Obama saluted returning troops returning from Iraq Wednesday, declaring that the nearly nine-year conflict is ending honorably, “not with a final battle, but with a final march toward home.” Marking the conclusion of the war at this military base that’s seen more than 200 deaths over nearly nine years of fighting in Iraq, Obama never tried to declare victory. It was a war that he opposed from the start, inherited as president and is now bringing to a close, leaving behind an Iraq still struggling. But he sought to declare a noble end to a fight that has cost nearly 4,500 American lives and left about 32,000 wounded. “The war in Iraq will soon belong to history, and your service belongs to the ages,” he said, applauding their “extraordinary achievement.” All U.S. troops are to be out of Iraq Dec. 31, though Obama has pledged the U.S. will continue civilian assistance for Iraq as it faces an uncertain future in a volatile region of the world. Even as majorities in the U.S. public favor ending the war, some Republicans have criticized Obama’s withdrawal, arguing he’s leaving behind an unstable Iraq that could hurt U.S. interests and fall subject to influence from neighboring Iran. Obama, appearing with first lady Michelle Obama, highlighted the human side of the war, reflecting on the bravery and sacrifices of U.S. forces now on their way back home. He recalled the start of the war, a time when he was only an Illinois state senator and many of the warriors before him were in grade school. “We knew this day would come. We have known it for some time now,” he said. “But still, there is something profound about the end of a war that has lasted so long.” Obama, who became president in part because of his opposition to the Iraq war, said the war faced twists and turns amid one constant: the patriotism and commitment of U.S. troops. “It is harder to end a war, than to begin one,” he said. Still, he made only passing mention of the enormous soul-searching the war caused in America, saying it “was a source of great controversy here at home, with patriots on both sides of the debate.” He did not mention that he had opposed it. He noted the early battles that defeated and deposed Saddam Hussein and what he called “the grind of insurgency” — roadside bombs, snipers and suicide attacks. “Your will proved stronger than the terror of those who tried to break it,” he said. Upon his arrival in Fort Bragg Wednesday, Obama met with five enlisted service members who had recently returned from combat. He also met with the family of a soldier killed overseas. Obama has on several occasions addressed his reasons for ending the war, casting it as a promise kept after he ran for president as an anti-war candidate and speaking of the need to refocus U.S. attention on rebuilding the troubled economy at home. Obama’s approval rating on handling the situation in Iraq has been above 50 percent since last fall, and in a new Associated Press-GfK poll, has ticked up four points since October to 55 percent. Among independents, his approval rating tops 50 percent for the first time since this spring. With the economy foremost on people’s minds, fewer now consider the war a top issue. Fifty-one percent said it was extremely or very important to them personally, down from 58 percent in October, placing it behind 13 of 14 issues tested in the poll. It’s the president’s first visit to Fort Bragg, which is home to Army Special Operations, the 18th Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne, among others. Special Forces troops from Fort Bragg were among the first soldiers in Iraq during the 2003 invasion and its paratroopers helped lead the 2007 troop increase. North Carolina, which Obama narrowly won in 2008, also is an important state for the 2012 presidential election and will host the Democratic convention. To underscore the political significance, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, one of the leading GOP presidential contenders, addressed an open letter to Obama and sent it to the Fayetteville (N.C.) Observer decrying the unemployment rate for veterans. Unemployment for veterans who served after Sept. 11, 2001, was 11.1 percent in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Romney called such a statistic a “disgrace.” “In the face of such economic hardship, fine words welcoming veterans home are insufficient,” he wrote. “It is time for a fundamental change of direction. If you won’t or can’t lead our country out of the economic morass you’ve deepened, then I would suggest that it’s time for you to go.” In his speech, Obama said that Iraq “is not a perfect place.” But he added that “we are leaving behind a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government that was elected by its people. We are building a new partnership between our nations.” Brig Gen Norman Ham, commander of the 440th Airlift Wing, said in an interview that the end of the Iraq war “means a lot of things.” “For me personally, I served my country and I’m proud of what we’ve done, what we’ve accomplished,” Ham said. “We set out on a mission and we accomplished that mission.” Ham reflected on the mixed outcome in Iraq. “The world isn’t a perfect place. We try to help where we can and do the best we can,” Ham said. “We have limited resources to go everywhere and do everything for everyone, but we do the very best we can and that’s what we’ve done in Iraq — the very best we can.” ___ Associated Press writer Martha Waggoner in Raleigh, N.C., and AP Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. Dec 14 AP-GfK Poll: Romney’s outsider argument falls flat with Republicans, while Gingrich rises By CHARLES BABINGTON and NANCY BENAC, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Mitt Romney says his business background makes him a better presidential candidate than Newt Gingrich, who has spent decades in Washington. But the argument is not moving Republicans his way, underscoring Romney’s challenge in finding a way to stem Gingrich’s rise three weeks before the Iowa caucus, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds. Republicans are evenly divided on whether a Washington insider or outsider is best-suited to be president. That’s a problem for Romney, who cites his private-sector experience as the biggest difference between the two front-runners for the GOP nomination. The poll also found a significant drop in satisfaction with the overall field of Republicans vying to challenge President Barack Obama next year. In October, 66 percent of Republican adults were satisfied with the field, and 29 percent unsatisfied. Now, 56 percent are satisfied and 40 percent unsatisfied. Except for four years as Massachusetts governor, Romney, 64, has spent his career in business and management. He ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1994 and for president in 2008. Gingrich, 68, spent 20 years in the U.S. House, including four as speaker. Since 1998, he has had a lucrative, Washington-based career as a consultant, speaker and author. Both men have earned millions of dollars over the years. The AP-GfK nationwide poll of Republicans found Gingrich with an edge over Romney as the candidate they’d like to see win the nomination. However, it falls just within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points. Voter preferences in early voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina do not necessarily match those in national polls. The Iowa caucus is Jan. 3. The New Hampshire primary is one week later. For months, Romney has hovered at or near the top of Republican polls, while various rivals have risen and fallen. Gingrich’s rise is at least as dramatic as the recent plummets of businessman Herman Cain and Texas Gov. Rick Perry. An October AP-GfK poll of Republicans found Gingrich well behind the leading candidates, with 7 percent. Romney had 30 percent. The new poll finds Gingrich preferred by 33 percent of Republicans and Romney by 27 percent. All other candidates are in single digits. Jonathan Luers, a software engineer from Chicago, is among those Republicans less than thrilled about the field. ”I guess I’m a little disappointed that it’s been so fluid,” said Luers, 52. “I was kind of hoping there would’ve been a more clear choice, without the quick knockdowns and everything.” He said he’s leaning toward Gingrich. Romney has built his campaign largely on the argument that his business background makes him better suited for the presidency than anyone else, especially in terms of creating jobs. In a debate Saturday in Iowa, Romney struggled at first to name areas in which he and Gingrich disagree. After citing Gingrich’s support for a mining colony on the moon and changes to child labor laws, Romney said: “The real difference, I believe, is our backgrounds. I spent my life in the private sector. I understand how the economy works.” Among Republicans who say they prefer a non-Washington candidate, Romney has a modest edge over Gingrich. Gingrich has a larger advantage among those who say they prefer Washington experience in a nominee. Among all people surveyed in the AP-GfK poll, including Democrats and independents, Romney fares better than Gingrich in head-to-head matchups with Obama. Obama and Romney are statistically even. But Obama leads Gingrich 51 percent to 42 percent. That may give Romney some ammunition with Republicans whose top priority is ousting Obama. Otherwise, Republicans appear to see Romney and Gingrich as similar in many important ways. The two men polled about evenly on the questions of who would be a strong leader, has the right experience, understands ordinary people’s problems and can bring needed change. Romney holds a clear edge on who is most likable. Gingrich leads on the question of who “has firm policy positions.” Romney is often asked about his changed positions on abortion, gay rights, gun control and immigration. Gingrich, however, also has shifted views on some key issues over the years. The poll found sharp drops in popularity for Perry and Cain over the past two months. Cain has suspended his campaign. Dmitry Kan, a Republican who owns an advertising firm in Acton, Mass., is not enthusiastic about the field. ”There is not much choice,” he said. “It looks like it’s going to be either Romney or Gingrich.” Kan, who is 24 and emigrated from the former Soviet Union in 1992, said he is leaning toward Gingrich but might change his mind. He said he respects Romney’s business background, but “seeing how it works these days, I think Gingrich’s ability of political prowess might work better.” Kan said Gingrich “did some difficult stuff back in the 1990s, back in the Clinton administration. Hopefully he will be able to somehow break through the gridlock.” Catherine Sebree, 41, a homemaker from The Woodlands, Texas, likes Romney. ”I appreciate the values that he stands for,” she said. “I believe that he is the person that will put family first and will help to strengthen our nation and hopefully help out with the budget deficit.” Sebree embraces Romney’s non-Washington background. “I think that the people that are experienced in Washington have screwed up enough that it’s time to try some different methods,” she said. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll included interviews with 460 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The margin of error for these results is plus or minus 6 percentage points. ___ AP Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 election and candidates was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including 460 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is plus or minus 6 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Nov 29 AP-Petside.com Poll: 8 in 10 pet owners visited vet in last year By SUE MANNING, Associated Press LOS ANGELES (AP) — Eight in 10 pet owners have taken their animals to the vet in the past year, with an overall average expenditure of $505, according to a new AP-Petside.com poll. Sixty percent of those who took their pets to the vet spent $300 or less, but the average expenditure was boosted higher by the one in eight pet owners (13 percent) who spent $1,000 or more. About one in six pet owners say their pet faced a serious illness during the year, and those pet owners spent an average of $1,092 on vet care. One percent say they took their pets to the vet and spent no money. Thomas Klamm, 76, of Boone, Iowa, says he and his wife Beverly spent $3,000 on their two Chihuahuas, sisters Kati and Keli, and he would have spent more if necessary, even though his annual income is under $50,000. The biggest bills resulted from a spinal condition Kati had, but Klamm says he has a lot of confidence in the vets and senior students at Iowa State University’s Veterinary Teaching Hospital in nearby Ames, where the little dogs have been going since they were pups. According to the poll, most pet owners have faith in the treatment vets recommend. Overall, 52 percent say vets do not often recommend excessive treatment, 26 percent say that happens moderately often, 17 percent extremely or very often. Those whose pets had been seriously ill in the past year were no more likely than others to say that vets suggest treatments that go beyond what is reasonable and necessary. Among those who did not take their pets to the vet last year, 52 percent say they only take their pets to the vet “when they’re really sick” and a third say they can’t afford it at all. Luis Calderon, 56, of El Monte, Calif., couldn’t afford to take Buddy, his 3-year-old German shepherd, to the vet last year. Buddy was given to Calderon when the dog was 6 months old. “We have become best friends,” he says. Calderon, a self-employed handyman, has a wife and two kids and says work is scarce. If Buddy needed a vet, Calderon says he would have to go through public services or use credit. “We would have to get him help.” How much would be too much? It would depend on what was wrong and what the vet said, Calderon says. “At that point I would have to consider whether to keep him or let him go, put him to sleep,” he says. He hates the idea of putting limits on Buddy’s health. “But we have to survive. At this point, my mortgage is No. 1. This month is really close to the edge,” Calderon adds. Fifty-eight percent of those who did not take their pets to a vet in the past year said they “have a type of pet that doesn’t need much veterinary care.” Among them, 52 percent have dogs, 52 percent cats, 10 percent fish, and 5 percent birds. Not surprisingly, higher-income pet owners (household incomes over $50,000) were more apt to take their pets to the vet than those with incomes below $50,000 — 90 percent versus 74 percent. Forty percent of those with household incomes below $50,000 who didn’t take their pets to the vet say they can’t really afford to do so. Art Jones, 62, of Alameda, Calif., says two of his family’s cats died in the last year. He estimates he spent $600 on vet bills — half of that to euthanize one of the cats. The other cat died at home. ”But we are not so wealthy we can spend thousands on a house pet. That’s unfortunate, but that’s the truth,” Jones says. He says he has family friends whose dog is getting cancer treatment and the cost is nearing $10,000. “To me, that’s insane,” Jones says. Over the past few years, Jim Salsman, 51, of Las Vegas, paid for several $500 trips to the vet for his neighbors’ cat, Mau, after the declawed feline got in fights with other animals. Last year, the neighbors left and gave the cat to Salsman. He ended up paying another $400 in vet bills, but says he didn’t mind because his neighbors were in foreclosure and struggling, and the cat became an important member of the family. ”He means everything to us,” Salsman said. According to the poll, dog owners were a bit more likely to take their pets to the vet than cat owners — 85 percent of dog owners compared with 79 percent of cat owners. But dog owners spent a bit less — an average of $537 — than cat owners, who spent an average of $558. The AP-Petside.com Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,118 pet owners. Results among pet owners have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. ___ AP Global Director of Polling Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.petside.com/vetcost2011 How the poll of pet owners on veterinary care was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on veterinary care was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.6 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all pet owners in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Nov 23 AP-GfK poll surprise: Italians want more migrants FRANCES D’EMILIO,Associated Press ROME (AP) — Two-thirds of Italians consider legal immigration “good” for their country and many would welcome more migrants, an AP-GfK poll has found — surprising results given persistent sentiment in Italy linking foreigners to crime and other social ills. Many Italians — most prominently allies of former Premier Silvio Berlusconi — have blamed the relatively new phenomenon of immigration for problems ranging from unemployment to drug trafficking, and from burglaries to violent crime. But in the poll conducted last week, 67 percent of 1,025 Italian adults surveyed across the country said legal immigration is a good thing. And 59 percent said they want to see even more immigrants admitted legally toItaly. The findings highlight Italians’ split view of immigration: While many have a knee-jerk hostile reaction to immigrants because of security fears, many also realize they are needed to do the jobs Italians won’t do, to pay into Italy’s overburdened pension system and to care for the country’s aging population. “There is a schizophrenic attitude, which acknowledges the necessity of immigrant labor but doesn’t accompany this with a true openness to the human and social implications of migration,” said Ferruccio Pastore, director of the International and European Research Forum on Immigration think tank. On Tuesday, Italian President Giorgio Napolitano urged Parliament to grant automatic citizenship to Italian-born children of foreigners, days after stressing that the weight of Italy’s debt would be even more difficult to sustain were it not for the contribution of immigrants to Italy’s economy. A chorus of protest rose up from right-wing politicians, with some leaders of the anti-immigrant Northern League vowing to “throw up barricades” around Parliament if the citizenship measure comes up for a vote. Among those polled, people most in favor of increasing the number of new immigrant workers and people who consider legal immigration a very good thing came mainly from Italy’s industrious north. Those in southern Italy, which suffers from high unemployment and has borne the burden of receiving thousands of illegal boat people, were less enthusiastic. Demographer Antonio Golini suggested that opinions on immigration tend to be colored by personal experience: Someone whose elderly parents are lovingly cared for by an Eastern European woman sees immigration as a boon; someone whose Egyptian pizza maker quit his job on a busy Saturday night is less enthusiastic. Still, the idea that immigrant workers are an integral part of Italian life is taking root, said Golini, professor emeritus at Rome’s Sapienza University and a frequent collaborator with Italy’s national statistics bureau. “When they see that caretakers for the elderly are mainly immigrants, that factory workers, construction workers, are immigrants, they begin to feel the benefit of immigrants, so they are favorable to them,” he said. For centuries, Italy was a largely homogenized, predominantly Roman Catholic society. Two decades ago, foreign workers began arriving, introducing new ethnic groups and faiths to the nation. Each year, Italy’s interior ministry sets the number of new residence permits to be issued, nationality by nationality. Immigrants now account for 6 percent of the population. Italians depend on the immigrants for low-paying or backbreaking jobs they themselves shun, like bricklaying, crop-picking and flipping pizza dough in front of hot ovens. But opposition primarily from Berlusconi’s allies in the Northern League has led to more restrictive laws, including one that went into effect this year requiring immigrants to take a proficiency test in the Italian language before receiving permanent residency permits. While the AP-GfK poll suggests Italians are accepting of such legal migrants, it also makes clear they have little tolerance for illegal ones. Illegal immigration was described by 54 percent of those surveyed as an “extremely serious” or “very serious” problem, with 25 percent describing it as “somewhat serious.” Far more respondents said they are deeply worried about unemployment, corruption, the national debt and organized crime. Husband-and-wife shopkeepers Giovanni Esposito and Gilda Di Carli reflected the ambivalence of Italians toward immigrants. Esposito, 77, works in a butcher stall in the bustling Piazza Vittorio covered market, in a blue-collar neighborhood that is home to many migrants. He followed the profession of his father, grandfather and great-grandfather, but said Italian youths are too soft for the work, which requires rising at 4 a.m. and not hanging up one’s apron until afternoon. He said that’s why Italy need immigrants. “We need them because our own young people don’t want to do this work,” Esposito said. But he was adamant about illegal migrants: “They should be sent back. If there is no work for us, there is no work for them.” Di Carli, 72, arranged produce in her store a few blocks away. “There are good ones and bad ones, like Italians,” she said. Asked whether the numbers of immigrants should be increased, she was emphatic. “Increased? No. Then there will be more of them than there are of us.” The AP-GfK poll of 1,025 Italian adults across the country was conducted Nov. 16-20 using landlines and cell phones by GfK Eurisko Italy under direction of the global GfK Group. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. ___ AP Poll is at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Maria Grazia Murru and Paolo Santalucia contributed to this story. How the AP-GfK Poll on Italy was conducted The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the attitudes and opinions of Italians was conducted Nov. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications — a division of GfK Custom Research North America — in partnership with GfK Eurisko Italy. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,025 adults. Interviews were conducted with 720 respondents on landline telephones and 305 on cellular phones. The landline sample was randomly created from listed sample of known telephone numbers. For cell phones, digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in Italian and the sample included all regions of Italy. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflected the population’s makeup by factors such as region, town size, type of phone, education, profession, age among men and age among women. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Italy were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Nov 22 AP-GfK Poll: Cutting debt a top prioirty for Italians, few want to raise retirement age or ease labor law By NICOLE WINFIELD, Associated Press ROME (AP) — An AP-GfK poll shows that 93 percent of Italians consider cutting the country’s huge public debt a top priority but few are willing to make personal sacrifices to do so. The poll released Tuesday shows only about a quarter of Italians favor reforming labor laws to make it easier to fire workers or approve of raising the retirement age to 67. Those reforms are considered critical to curbing Italy’s public spending and boosting its economic growth. The poll shows that most Italians retain a favorable view of the European Union and 76 percent think Italy should stay in the 17-nation eurozone. Last week’s poll came during the first days of economist Mario Monti’s new government, brought in to tame Italy’s 1.9 trillion-euro ($2.6 trillion) debt. Market turmoil and loss of confidence in Italy’s ability to repay its debts forced Premier Silvio Berlusconi to resign Nov. 12, ending his 17-year domination of Italian politics. Italy’s economy is hampered by high payroll costs, low productivity, fat government payrolls, excessive taxes, choking bureaucracy, and an educational system that produces one of the lowest levels of college graduates among rich countries. Yet as the third-largest economy in the eurozone, Italy is considered too big for Europe to bail out like it did Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Monti got high marks from Italians surveyed after he was tapped to lead the country, garnering a 67 percent favorability rating. Only 10 percent had a negative view and 16 percent were neutral. Monti has pledged to reform the pension system, re-impose a tax on homes annulled by Berlusconi’s government, fight tax evasion, streamline civil court proceedings, get more women and youths into the work force and cut political costs. But critically, only 32 percent of Italians are strongly confident that his government of bankers, academics and corporate executives can fix the country’s economic ills. Forty-two percent say they’re “moderately confident” and 22 percent say they have little or no confidence he can turn Italy’s finances around. ”Let’s say there’s hope,” said Fortunato Porcheddu, 63, as he strolled in a working class neighborhood of Rome. While there is some hopefulness about the future of the economy — 55 percent anticipate a better situation five years from now — the longer-term picture is gloomier: Only 35 percent of Italians think children born today will be better off 20 years from now, while 43 percent anticipate a harder life for the next generation. The survey found that overall, corruption ranked high as a problem facing Italy: 87 percent of those surveyed said it was an “extremely” or “very serious” problem. Unemployment, the debt and organized crime followed. The AP-GfK poll of 1,025 Italian adults across the country was conducted Nov. 16-20 using landlines and cellphones by GfK Eurisko Italy under direction of GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. ___ AP Poll is at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Jennifer Agiesta in Washington, Paolo Santalucia in Rome and Colleen Barry in Milan contributed. How the poll on attitudes of Italians was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the attitudes and opinions of Italians was conducted Nov. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications — a division of GfK Custom Research North America — in partnership with GfK Eurisko Italy. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,025 adults. Interviews were conducted with 720 respondents on landline telephones and 305 on cellular phones. The landline sample was randomly created from listed sample of known telephone numbers For cell phones, digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in Italian and the sample included all regions of Italy. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age within sex, region, town size, type of phone, education and profession. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Italy were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Nov 15 AP-Petside.com Poll: Pet owners say shelter adoptions socially responsible, but most got pets as gifts or strays By SUE MANNING, Associated Press LOS ANGELES (AP) — Where do people get their pets? A new AP-Petside.com poll found that the most common way people acquire a pet is as a gift, followed by taking in a stray. About four in 10 pet owners say at least one of their current pets was given to them by friends or family, while a third say they have a pet that showed up on their doorstep as a stray. Shelters and breeders are next on the list as sources for pets. Thirty percent of those polled say they adopted through a shelter, 31 percent got a pet from a breeder and 14 percent bought an animal at a pet store. Karen Hulsey, 63, adopted a cat from a Texas shelter. Greyson is about a year old now and “he’s cuddly and clean,” she says. She calls her shelter experience very upbeat because the cat “has turned into a wonderful pet with a good attitude and I felt like I was doing something positive.” Another quarter obtained a pet in some other way, including 3 percent who say they went to an animal rescue group and 2 percent who purchased them using an online or print classified ad. More than half of the pet owners polled say they’ve taken in a shelter animal at some point, and two-thirds of them say their experiences have been extremely positive. Jackie Schulze, 77, of Williamsport, Pa., got Sassafras, a white cat with periwinkle eyes, from Lycoming Animal Protection Society Inc., a no-kill cat rescue that operates a local shelter. The cat, which was rescued from a meth lab in Scranton, is very attached to Schulze, following her around and sitting in her lap. ”Sassy chose me,” Schulze said. Among those who had the most positive shelter experiences, 44 percent cite positive interactions with shelter staff. Just 3 percent say they’d had a moderately or very negative shelter experience. Edward Acosta, 46, of Thomasville, N.C., said if he were getting a new pet today, he would probably go to a pet store or breeder, not because he doesn’t like shelters but “because I like thoroughbreds.” He and his wife Vicki bred Pomeranians for years and still have three descended from their original pair. They also own five chickens — Rhode Island Reds bought at a feed store — whom they consider to be pets. Cat owners are more likely than dog owners to have adopted a stray or shelter animal. Forty-three percent of cat owners polled say one of their pets came from a shelter, compared with 29 percent of dog owners. More than half of cat owners (52 percent) say one of their current pets was a stray, compared with 30 percent of dog owners. Fifty-eight percent of shelter adopters say being socially responsible was extremely or very important in their decision to use a shelter. It is usually cheaper to adopt than to buy from a breeder or pet store, but 60 percent of those who adopted shelter pets say the cost made no difference. Thirty-six percent of shelter users say they had more confidence in the staff at pet shelters than they did in the staff at pet stores or breeders. Thirty-six percent of those who obtained animals from shelters also say they believe shelter animals were more likely to have had recent veterinary care than animals from pet stores or breeders. And more than two-thirds of those who have adopted from a shelter — 68 percent — say they would do so again. Not all pet owners see shelter adoptions as a positive. Thirty-six percent of those polled say that if they were to adopt an animal from a shelter, they would be extremely or very concerned that the pet might have hidden medical problems; 29 percent express concern about psychological problems and 33 percent say they would worry the animal wouldn’t fit in with their families. Ojala Reino, 31, of Fairmount, Ga., who got his boxer bulldog, Bruster, from a friend, said he was one of those who would worry about the physical and mental health of a shelter dog. ”I watch of lot of those shows on TV where the animals come in and have been abused,” he said. Fifty-two percent of pet owners say they have gotten a pet from a shelter or rescue at some time, but only 23 percent have taken an animal to a shelter. Of those who turned in animals, 59 percent say the animal belonged to someone else. If shelters started charging a $25 fee to accept unwanted or stray animals, about a third of those polled (34 percent) say they would be dissuaded from leaving animals and 52 percent say it would make no difference. By region, adopting a stray is most common in the West, where 39 percent got a pet that way compared with 34 percent in the South, 30 percent in the Northeast and 29 percent in the Midwest. Forty-one percent of rural-dwelling pet owners say their pet was a stray, compared with 28 percent of suburbanites and 34 percent of urbanites. And suburbanites were most likely to have adopted from a shelter: 36 percent compared with 30 percent in urban areas and 22 percent in rural parts of the country. The AP-Petside.com Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,118 pet owners. Results among pet owners have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. ___ AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.petside.com/rescueanimals How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on shelter adoption was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.6 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all pet owners in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/ and http://surveys.ap.org. Nov 08 AP-Petside.com Poll: Many pets can expect holiday gifts from owners; toys and treats lead list of favorites By SUE MANNING, Associated Press LOS ANGELES (AP) — Just over half of American pet owners will buy gifts for their pets this holiday season, and they’ll spend an average of $46 on their animals, with toys and treats topping the list, according to a new AP-Petside.com poll. Sixty-eight percent of pets getting gifts can look forward to a toy, 45 percent to food or another treat, 8 percent new bedding, 6 percent clothing, 3 percent a leash, collar or harness and 3 percent new grooming products, the poll showed. (Some pets will get more than one gift.) “Christmas is about the pets,” said Gayla McCarthy, 58, of Kekaha, Hawaii, whose Australian shepherd, Echo, will find a toy under the tree. McCarthy even got a shirt for her husband as a gift to him from the dog, and she’ll be giving collapsible bowls that she ordered online to all their friends’ dogs. Although the average budget for pet gifts among those surveyed was $46, 72 percent of those polled said they’d spend $30 or less. Those who bought gifts for their pets last year said they spent $41 on average. Overall, 51 percent of those polled this year said they would buy holiday gifts for their pets, a figure that’s been relatively stable in the last few AP-Petside.com polls. It was 53 percent last year, 52 percent in 2009 and 43 percent in 2008. Income does matter. Those making $50,000 or more say they plan to spend an average $57 on their pets. Those making under $50,000 say it will be $29. Major pet retailers have been taking part in the Black Friday and Cyber Monday frenzy for a few years. Petco Animal Supplies Inc. plans a 72-hour “Black Friday Weekend Blowout,” said Greg Seremetis, vice president of marketing. Products for both pets and pet owners will be available, he said. “Including pets in holiday gift-giving has been a growing trend in the last few years. More and more pets are being treated as family members and being included in holiday traditions, including having a gift waiting for them under the tree,” he said. PetSmart Inc. plans to open stores at 7 a.m. on Black Friday, then continue with a “Countdown to Christmas” sale, said spokeswoman Stephanie Foster. Online retailer Foster & Smith Inc. plans a live, streaming, four-hour (11 a.m. – 3 p.m. EST) webcast full of sales and giveaways on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, spokesman Gordon Magee said. “As far as we know, with the exception of QVC …, no other retailer has done a live broadcast like this on Black Friday and Cyber Monday,” Magee said. “We are going to give it a go.” Younger pet owners are more apt to say they’ll buy their pet a holiday gift, including 56 percent of pet owners under age 50. Among those ages 50-64, it’s 47 percent, and among seniors, 39 percent, the poll showed. Lauren Beard, 22, of Felton, Pa., and her family lavished their dog Groovy with gifts last year — including treats and bones — because it was the chocolate lab’s first Christmas. “We still love her but it’s a little less exciting this year,” Beard said. So she reduced her budget of $70 last year to $50, and hopes to get some things on sale. She’ll also buy a gift for Groovy’s best friend and neighbor, a golden retriever named Tessie, Beard said. Ronda Singleton and her husband live in Elk, Wash., and raise and show standard poodles. But they don’t plan to get gifts for their dogs or for each other. “If we need something, we go get it,” she explained, adding that the dogs get treats all the time. She and her husband like to celebrate holidays with traditional dinners and church services. Thomas Koch, 69, in Raleigh, N.C., has something special to celebrate this year — adoption of his adult son should be finalized, he said. The two will spend the holidays with their dog, Jessie, a Sheltie-chow mix, and two cats, Tanz and Callie. Last year, Jessie got toys and the cats got play mice and a large bag of catnip. “They liked it so much we just threw it on the carpet and let them roll in it,” Koch said. He covered the goodies last year for a mere $8, but is setting aside $10 this year just in case prices have gone up. George Smith, 43, a father of three in Adams County, Colo., says pets are “part of the family, just like our kids.” But they keep the holiday gifts for Miley, a golden retriever, and Zippity, a cat, low-key: no fancy wrapping or stockings, just $10 worth of toys and treats. Steve Gottula’s budget was $100 last year and he figures it will run about the same this year for his two dogs and seven cats. Odie, a dachshund, and Sky, a Dalmatian, will get special bones, and the cats will get catnip and mouse balls. Gottula, 48, his wife Leigh (she’s the one who brings home the strays) and five kids (ages 6 to 16) live with the nine pets in Spring, Texas. His daughters have made stockings for the pets — with their initials — and they are always part of holiday celebrations, Gottula said. “The cats like to play with the paper and ribbon and get lost in the boxes and wrappings,” he said. What do his pets mean to him? “They are entertaining, they are companions. They have little senses of humor. They all have personalities. If you give love to them they give it back — it’s unconditional,” he said. The AP-Petside.com Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,118 pet owners. Results among all pet owners have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. ___ Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://petside.com/gifts2011 How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on holiday gifts for their pets was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.6 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all pet owners in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/ and http://surveys.ap.org. Oct 21 AP-GfK Poll: 37 percent support ‘Occupy Wall Street’ protesters; politics angers most people By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — More than one-third of the country supports the Wall Street protests, and even more — 58 percent — say they are furious about America’s politics. The number of angry people is growing as deep reservoirs of resentment grip the country, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll. Some 37 percent of people back the protests that have spread from New York to cities across the country and abroad, one of the first snapshots of how the public views the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. A majority of those protest supporters are Democrats, but the anger about politics in general is much more widespread, the poll indicates. “They’ve got reasons to be upset, they’ve got reasons to protest, but they’re protesting against the wrong people,” Jan Jarrell, 54, a retired school custodian from Leesville, S.C., says of the New York demonstrators. “They need to go to Washington, to Congress and the White House. They’re the ones coming up with all the rules.” “Occupy Wall Street” has been called the liberal counterpoint to conservative-libertarian tea party, which injected a huge dose of enthusiasm into the Republican Party and helped it win the House and make gains in the Senate last fall. While the troubled economy is at the root of anger at both government and business leaders, there’s a key difference. Tea party activists generally argue that government is the problem, and they advocate for free markets. The Wall Street protesters generally say that government can provide some solutions and the free market has run amok. Of the Americans who support the Wall Street protests, 64 percent in the poll are Democrats, while 22 percent are independents and just 14 percent are Republicans. The protest backers are more likely to approve of President Barack Obama and more likely to disapprove of Congress than are people who don’t support the demonstrations. More generally, many more Americans — 58 percent — say they are furious about the country’s politics than did in January, when 49 percent said they felt that way. What’s more, nearly nine in 10 say they are frustrated with politics and nearly the same say they are disappointed, findings that suggest people are deeply resentful of the political bickering over such basic government responsibilities as passing a federal budget and raising the nation’s debt limit. This wrath spreads across political lines, with about six in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents saying politics makes them angry. Fewer are hopeful about politics than when the year began, 47 percent down from 60 percent. Only 17 percent of respondents say they feel proud or inspired. Since January, Congress and the White House have engaged in repeated standoffs over federal spending and the size of government as the economy has struggled to recover from recession. In the past month, fury over all that has spilled into New York’s financial district, and groups of mostly young people have camped out in a park. The protesters cite the economic crisis as a key reason for their unhappiness. The unemployment rate hovers around 9 percent nationally. Many homeowners owe more than their homes are worth. Foreclosures are rampant. And many young people — the key demographic of the protesters — can’t find jobs or live on their own. “They all have college educations, and some have advanced degrees, and they’re unemployed?” says Alice Dunlap, 63, a retired speech language pathologist from Alexandria, Va. She supports the protests because, she says, anger lingers at those who profited while the nation’s economy tanked. “We all got ripped off by Wall Street, and we continue to be ripped off by Wall Street,” she says. “You can look at my portfolio, if you like.” The poll found that most protest supporters do not blame Obama for the economic crisis. Sixty-eight percent say former President George W. Bush deserves “almost all” or “a lot but not all” of the blame. Just 15 percent say Obama deserves that much blame. Nearly six in 10 protest supporters blame Republicans in Congress for the nation’s economic problems, and 21 percent blame congressional Democrats. Six in 10 protest supporters trust Democrats more than Republicans to create jobs. Most people who support the protests — like most people who don’t — actually report good financial situations in their own households. Still, protest supporters express more intense concern than non-supporters about unemployment at the moment and rising consumer prices in the coming year. Norton Shores, Mich., retiree Patsy Ellerbroek, 65, is among those who have little empathy for the Wall Street protesters. “Everybody ought to own their own business before they start complaining,” Ellerbroek says. Eight years ago, she and her husband sold “The Fun Spot,” a roller rink they owned for three decades. Now she’s a member of neither political party, and she gets frustrated when she sees politicians like the Republican candidates for president being disrespectful. Or Obama “flying around the county on our taxpayer dollars, politicking.” “With all the politicians, it’s like, the heck with the people who put them there. We need another Mr. Smith goes to Washington,” she said. The poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll included 384 respondents who said they were supporters of the Wall Street protests. Among that group, the error margin was 6.5 points. ___ Online: Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the Wall Street protests and political emotions was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including 384 respondents who said they were supporters of the Wall Street protests. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for those supporting the Wall Street protests was plus or minus 6.5 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline results available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Oct 20 AP-GfK Poll: Gloom persists, though not as dark as summer; Obama not inspiring confidence By JENNIFER AGIESTA and JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — The extreme funk that settled over the country during the summer has eased slightly, but Americans remain gloomy about the economy and more than half say President Barack Obama does not inspire confidence about a recovery. A sizable majority — more than 7 in 10 — believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and, in a new high, 43 percent describe the nation’s economy as “very poor,” according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Among those surveyed, less than 40 percent say Obama’s proposed remedies for high unemployment would increase jobs significantly. The pessimism is not a good sign for the nation’s recovery hopes and presents a more urgent challenge for Obama as he mounts his re-election bid. About 4 in 10 think unemployment will rise in the coming year; just 23 percent expect it to decrease. And few expect the government to be able to help. Only 41 percent say the government can do much to create jobs, and less than 40 percent say the main elements of Obama’s jobs proposal would increase employment significantly. What’s more, expectations for the coming year have not improved, with 41 percent believing the economy will remain the same, 27 percent saying it will get worse and 30 percent saying it will improve. In a glimmer of a bright spot, less than a quarter of those surveyed say they think the economy worsened in the past month, compared with nearly half who felt that way in August. And Obama could find some solace in the poll’s finding that 44 percent place heavy blame for the economy’s state on President George W. Bush, while 27 percent put the blame on him. Still, the public’s mood is decidedly downbeat, creating yet another obstacle to economic growth, which relies in part on public optimism to spur demand. Illustrating Obama’s precarious perch, 9 percent of survey respondents who said he deserves to be re-elected said they could vote for one of the three leading Republicans seeking the presidential nomination. “If Romney and Obama were going head to head at this point in time I would probably move to Romney,” said Dale Bartholomew, 58, a manufacturing equipment salesman from Marengo, Ill. Bartholomew said he agrees with Obama’s proposed economic remedies and said partisan divisions have blocked the president’s initiatives. But, he added: “His inability to rally the political forces, if you will, to accomplish his goal is what disappoints me.” Despite the high number of people who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, Obama himself gets some benefit of the doubt. His approval ratings are holding steady, with 46 percent approving of his job as president and 52 percent disapproving. Obama’s standing with the public is weakest on the economy and in his efforts to tackle unemployment, with about 6 in 10 disapproving of his handling of both. Obama’s standing still vastly exceeds that of Congress. In a slight improvement, Congress’ approval ratings rose from its August low of 12 percent to 16 percent. Still, 82 percent disapprove of Congress, including 56 percent who say they “strongly disapprove.” Little illustrates the decline in the public’s faith in Obama more than the sharp dip in confidence he has experienced since the highs he enjoyed immediately after his election. Specifically, only 43 percent of the respondents say they are confident that Obama “will be successful in bringing about the changes needed to improve the economy,” compared with 72 percent who said they were confident of his abilities in November 2008. “I believe he is doing all he knows how, but it’s just not working,” said Ann Anderson, 49, a college administrator from Homer Glen, Ill. Democrats tend to stick by the president, expressing much more confidence in his ability to turn the economy around. More than 7 in 10 say they are at least somewhat confident of his abilities to improve the economy. Among independents, 37 percent are that confident and only 11 percent of Republicans share that view. Still, the disappointment in Obama extends to some Democrats who believe he should stand his ground. “When Obama got elected I was real hopeful for a lot of changes,” said Dave Buerger, 60, a part-time registered nurse from New Salisbury, Ind. “Overall I would say that I’m real disappointed in his concessions to the banks and Wall Street and the Republicans. I think he needs to be more liberal and stand his ground more. I think he’s given in too much.” Even as the public expresses disappointment in Obama and disapproval of Congress, only 41 percent of respondents say the government can do quite a bit or a great deal to create jobs. Three out of 10 believe government’s impact on jobs is moderate and 29 percent say it can help create little or no jobs at all. Similarly, a majority of the public does not hold much hope for the job creation prospects of either Obama’s $447 billion jobs proposal or for measures proposed by congressional Republicans. Obama’s plan to create jobs by increasing spending on public works projects such as schools, roads and bridges finds only 37 percent of respondents believing it will create a significant number of jobs. Tax credits to companies that hire those who have unemployed for six months or more elicits a similar response. Only 27 percent of the respondents said the Republican plan to reduce the number of regulations on businesses would create a significant number of jobs; 45 percent say it would create few or no jobs. The poll, however, found substantial support — 62 percent — for a proposal by Senate Democrats to pay for Obama’s jobs proposal with a surtax on incomes over $1 million. One quarter of the respondents opposed the idea and 10 percent said they were neutral. Though the surtax has little or no chance of passing, the poll results underscore the view of Democrats that the proposal has political appeal. Anderson, the college administrator from Illinois, voiced cautious support for the tax on millionaires. “That’s a tough call. Yes, I do, but that’s only because I’m not one of them,” she said. “Should they pay their fair share? Absolutely. Should they pay a certain percentage? I don’t know how to answer that.” But Teresa Rowe, 53, a dance team consultant from Richland, Wash., said she preferred an overhaul of the entire tax system. “They’ll go after the millionaires first and then those slightly below millionaires. It’s a slippery slope,” she said. “They need to look at the entire tax system and revise the whole system.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide, and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Associated Press writers Nancy Benac and Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. How the poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Oct 19 AP-GfK Poll: Many are open to ousting Obama, but no Republican has pulled away from the field By CHARLES BABINGTON and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans have yet to find a Republican they’d clearly prefer over President Barack Obama, although half say the president does not deserve re-election. Among Republicans, the desire to oust Obama is clear, according to a new AP-GfK poll. But it has not resolved divisions over the choice of a nominee. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is reasonably popular, but he has not pulled away from the field. Former pizza company executive Herman Cain runs close to Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see on the ballot, but many Republicans are reluctant to back a man who has never held office. Texas Gov. Rick Perry lags in the poll, which was conducted before Tuesday night’s combative debate in Las Vegas. In that two-hour forum, several candidates sharply criticized Cain’s tax proposals, and a newly energized Perry hit Romney hard on immigration. In the poll, Romney was the choice of 30 percent of Republicans, with Cain about even at 26 percent. Perry was preferred by 13 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas topped the list of those in single digits. Among all adults surveyed, half said Obama should not be re-elected, and 46 percent said he should be. That continues his gradual slide since May. When all adults are asked about hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Obama and Romney run almost even, 48 percent for Obama to 45 percent. Obama holds a narrow edge over Cain, 49 percent to 43 percent. He leads Perry, 51 percent to 42 percent. Luis Calderon of El Monte, Calif., exemplifies those unhappy with Obama but not ready to dump him. “Even though I criticize him, I still want him to win,” said Calderon, 56, a self-employed handyman who was laid off by an oil company three years ago. Obama “has to get down to business, forget about promises, just do it, create jobs,” Calderon said. “But in order to create jobs, he has to be harder on the Republicans.” A Democrat, Calderon said Romney “is the one that may do a little dent on Obama.” Romney spent four years as Massachusetts governor, and he ran for president in 2008. Cain is the only candidate who has never held elected office, which might present some problems. Americans have no recent history of electing inexperienced politicians as president except war hero Dwight Eisenhower. Of the Republicans polled, about four in 10 say they’re less inclined to vote for someone who has never been elected to public office. That’s far more than say they are disinclined to vote for a Mormon, a woman or a black candidate. Romney and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman are Mormons. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is the only woman in the race. Cain is black. Nineteen percent of Republicans, and 21 percent of all adults, say they are less likely to vote for someone who is a Mormon. Anne Fish, a Republican and retired teacher from Columbus, Ohio, is among them. Fish, 73, said she would not support Romney “because he is not a Christian.” Mainstream Mormons, including Romney, consider themselves Christians. Fish said she probably will support Perry. “Although I have some doubts, I think he has some ideas about how to improve the economy, how to help our country develop more jobs,” she said. Ronald Wilson, a conservative Republican from Bucyrus, Ohio, said he’s undecided, although “I favor Herman Cain. He’s not infected by Washingtonitis.” Wilson, 65, a retired stone quarry worker, called Romney “better than nothing.” Such comments underscore Romney’s challenge. Many GOP insiders see him as the most plausible nominee and Obama’s strongest potential challenger. But Romney generates little passion among Republican voters, who seem to keep shopping for an alternative as time ticks down to the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. None of the candidates has begun heavy television advertising, which Romney and Perry in particular can afford. Perry has positioned himself to the right of Romney on several issues, but he’s having trouble breaking through with conservative voters. Nearly three in five Republicans say they see Perry as conservative, but only 26 percent say he’s “strongly conservative.” Cain gets about the same “strongly conservative” marks, while 17 percent of Republicans give Romney that label. Among conservative Republicans, Romney is the choice of 28 percent, Cain 27 percent and Perry 15 percent. Ten percent of conservatives say they’re not sure whom they’d like to see win the party’s nod. Tea party supporters split 33 percent for Cain to 29 percent for Romney and 13 percent for Perry. Gene O’Dor, a retired postal worker from Mobile, Ala., said he likes Romney’s somewhat centrist leanings. “I think he is a moderate, like I am,” said O’Dor, 66. “I feel he has the background in business to get this country back to where it needs to be.” “I don’t think he is going to be a person that lies to the American public,” O’Dor said. Benjamin Matzke, a video editor from Nicollet, Minn., is among those Republicans that Romney has yet to persuade. “He really to me looks a lot like a career politician,” said Matske, 27. He said Romney “seems to pay lip service to a lot of things that I feel are important,” including abortion, but “his stance on health care is a little soft.” There seems to be a broad gender divide in the Republican contest. Among GOP women, Romney is favored over his nearest competitor, Cain, by 17 percentage points, with the rest of the field in single digits. The picture is more muddled among Republican men: 31 percent favor Cain, 26 percent Romney, 17 percent Perry, 10 percent Paul, and the rest are each 5 percent or below. Among all adults, regardless of party identification, 21 percent say they’d like the GOP to nominate Romney. Eighteen percent name Cain, 13 percent Perry and 11 percent Paul. The poll found shifts in candidates’ favorability ratings. These numbers don’t necessarily track people’s likelihood to vote for or against someone, but they offer insight into how candidates are being received as they become better known. Romney, Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have gotten positive bumps since August. Romney and Cain are the only GOP contenders viewed favorably by more than 40 percent of all adults. Romney’s favorable rating has risen 10 points among all adults since August, and now stands at 49 percent. Increases came across party lines, but especially among conservative Republicans. Cain’s favorability rating among Republicans has nearly doubled as he has spent more time in the spotlight, increasing from 37 percent favorable in August to 71 percent favorable now. Just 10 percent of Republicans hold a negative impression of him. Party insiders will watch for signs that Tuesday’s hard-hitting debate might wound Cain a bit. Obama’s favorability ratings are essentially unchanged since August, with 54 percent of adults holding a favorable view of him, and 44 percent unfavorable. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide, and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll included interviews with 431 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; the margin of error for these results was plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writers Nancy Benac and Stacy Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: Poll details: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 election and candidates was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including interviews with 431 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org. Sep 16 AP-NCC Poll: Narrow majority supports legal recognition of gay marriage, as issue roils states By JENNIFER AGIESTA and LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press Barbara Von Aspern loves her daughter, “thinks the world” of the person her daughter intends to marry and believes the pair should have the same legal rights as anyone else. It pains her, but Von Aspern is going to skip their wedding. Her daughter, Von Aspern explains, is marrying another woman. “We love them to death, and we love them without being judgmental,” the 62-year-old Chandler, Ariz., retiree said. “But the actual marriage I cannot agree with.” It’s complicated, this question of legitimizing gay marriage. Americans are grappling with it from their homes to the halls of government in the shadow of a presidential election next year. The ambivalence is reflected in a new poll that shows the nation is passionate, conflicted and narrowly split on same-sex marriage. Fifty-three percent of the 1,000 adults surveyed believe the government should give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex, about the same as last year, according to the nationwide telephone poll by The Associated Press and the National Constitution Center. Forty-four percent were opposed. People are similarly conflicted over what, if anything, the government should do about the issue. Support for legal recognition of same-sex marriage has shifted in recent years, from a narrow majority opposed in 2009 to narrow majority support now. Some of the shift stems from a generational divide, with the new poll showing a majority of Americans under age 65 in favor of legal recognition for same-sex marriages, and a majority of seniors opposed. In some places, government has moved ahead while the nation debates. New York in July became the sixth state, along with the District of Columbia, to legalize same-sex marriage. Still, the issue played a part in the special election Tuesday to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. Democrat David Weprin’s support for gay marriage cost him support among the district’s Orthodox Jews, and he lost to Republican Bob Turner. Also Tuesday, lawmakers in North Carolina, the only state in the Southeast that does not have language in its constitution banning gay marriage, voted to put the question on the 2012 ballot. Most Americans who live in states where gay marriage is not already legal say it is unlikely their state will pass such a law; just 20 percent think it is likely to become law in their state. Americans also are conflicted on how to go about legalizing or outlawing gay marriage. One option is banning gay marriage by constitutional amendment. About half of the poll’s respondents, 48 percent, said they would favor such an amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Most who feel this way do so intensely. About 40 percent would strongly favor such a change. Forty-three percent said they would oppose such an amendment, and 8 percent were neutral, according to the poll. Most — 55 percent — believe the issue should be handled at the state level, however, and opinions on how states should act are split. People are about evenly divided on whether their states should allow same-sex marriages — 42 percent favor that and 45 percent are opposed — and tilt in favor of state laws that allow gay couples to form civil unions — 47 percent in favor, 38 percent opposed and 13 percent neutral, according to the poll. “The different moral standards in different areas, probably, are the biggest reason that same-sex marriages are an issue,” said Dale Shoemaker, 54, a military retiree from Boise, Idaho. If gay couples who want to get married live in a state that doesn’t allow it, they can move to one that does, he said. Either way, gay couples “should have benefits,” Shoemaker said. “If they’re living together and cohabitating and are a couple, (they should have) the insurance and retirement and that type of thing, the monetary benefits.” Nearly 6 in 10 (57 percent) in the poll shared Shoemaker’s take when it comes to government benefits. They said same-sex couples should be entitled to the same legal benefits as married couples of the opposite sex. Forty percent felt the government should distinguish between them. The poll did uncover some inequities. It suggests, for example, that opponents of same-sex marriage were far more apt to say that the issue is one of deep importance to them. Forty-four percent of those polled called it extremely or very important for them personally. Among those who favor legal marriage for gay couples, 32 percent viewed the issue as that important. Von Aspern is an example of an American whose opposition to gay marriage is deep and abiding. It’s based on her religion — she is Mormon — and as such it overrode other considerations when it came to her daughter’s wedding. “It was very difficult,” Von Aspern says. “We had to bring them to the house and hug them and love them and tell them these things and not let that keep us apart.” How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-National Constitution Center Poll on same-sex marriage was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Sep 13 AP-NCC Poll: Government, military trusted to keep Americans safe; Congress not so much By LAURIE KELLMAN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press Congress may be in the doghouse with the American public, but the broader government — especially the military — gets high marks for keeping the nation safe and secure, a new poll suggests. What’s more, nearly seven in 10 Americans are trying to make things better by volunteering, a sign that optimism survives in a nation riled by partisan policy fights and economic uncertainty. “It’s very healthy because it indicates that although we are annoyed, skeptical and have less trust than we’d like in our institutions, we are not hopeless,” said David Eisner, president and CEO of the National Constitution Center, which partnered on the poll with The Associated Press. “We believe that the bedrock values and principles that we built our society on are right.” The public’s contempt for Congress exceeds that of other American institutions, including banks, major corporations and the media. The broader government’s performance “making sure that our nation is safe from foreign and domestic threats” received an uptick in confidence from 53 percent a year ago to 72 percent now. And a growing number of people said the government is doing a good job of “making sure all Americans feel safe, secure and free,” up from 54 percent in August 2010 to 63 percent now. The military in particular earns the most respect of the survey, with 54 percent deeply confident in the institution. But deep contempt for Congress and aspects of President Barack Obama’s health care law remain among Americans tired of partisan standoffs over basic pocketbook issues. The Associated Press-National Constitution Center poll of 1,000 adults, conducted Aug. 18-22, found that 57 percent have little or no confidence in Congress, up from 49 percent last year. So while Boise, Idaho, retiree Dale Shoemaker, 54, feels safer, he doesn’t give the nation’s political institutions credit. “I think we’re more secure. There are a lot of professional, talented people doing a tremendous job,” Shoemaker, who used to consider himself a Republican but now is more of an independent. “But the leadership of the Congress and the Senate are not making decisions about what to do, and they’re leaving people hanging.” It’s notable news on the brink of an election year for Obama, the health care law’s chief author and the one who made the call in May to take out terrorist chief Osama bin Laden. Congress, too, is taking note of its estimation in the eyes of the voting public as both parties gird for battle over control of the House and Senate. No party profited politically from the standoff over the nation’s finances much of the year, especially by the unseemly debt limit dispute that earned the nation a credit rating downgrade and sank approval ratings for all policymakers involved. The bickering continued even as the unemployment rate refused to drop much below 10 percent. A poll last month found the infighting sank Congress’ approval rating to 12 percent. Congress and the broader government give Americans heartburn, with one central feature of Obama’s signature health care overhaul standing out as an example. More than eight in 10 people surveyed — 82 percent — say the federal government should not have the power to require Americans to buy health care insurance. Politically important independents were more aligned with Republicans on the mandate question, with 87 percent who don’t identify with one of the two major parties saying government should have no right to require insurance; 95 percent of Republicans agreed, according to the poll. “I just think that people should have the right to buy health insurance, or not,” said Daisy Mallory, 78, a retired factory worker from of La Grange, Ill., who says Medicare covers her health care costs. Obama, she said, may have misjudged public’s opposition to health care mandates. “I think he understands it better now,” she said. Obama himself acknowledged that his party took a “shellacking” in the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans made the health care law and the Democrats who muscled it through Congress their Issue No. 1 — and won enough seats to control the House. Obama has said he believes the Supreme Court will uphold the law’s constitutionality, but Republicans continue to mention it as a key example of government overreach that they would repeal. But after nine months in control of the House, Republicans haven’t boosted the public’s view of Congress. In the AP-NCC poll, just 8 percent say they are confident in the people running Congress, 10 percent in the federal government. Majorities of Republicans and Democrats lack confidence in congressional leaders, with politically crucial independents showing the sharpest increase in distrust of Congress over the past year. That’s up from 49 percent in 2010 to 62 percent now Even so, most Americans feel safe and more have confidence in the government to keep it that way, the poll shows. The uptick in approval for the government’s handling of national security crosses party lines, but Republicans have shifted sharply. Last year, just 32 percent of Republicans gave the government positive reviews on keeping the nation safe; now, 61 percent of Republicans agree on that. And on making sure Americans feel “safe, secure and free,” the same group has jumped from 33 percent who said the government is doing a “good job” to 54 percent now, the poll shows. The urge to contribute through volunteerism remains strong, according to the poll. Nearly six in 10 Americans say the country needs more sense of community and people helping one another. Most — 69 percent — have volunteered in the past year. Eight in 10 said they have made a charitable donation of $25 or more during that time. The AP-National Constitution Center poll was conducted Aug. 18-22 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellular telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-National Constitution Center Poll on trust in U.S. institutions was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Sep 13 AP-CNBC Poll: Americans, Britons less optimistic about becoming millionaires than Australians By LAURIE KELLMAN, The Associated Press Who believes they’ll be a millionaire? About two in 10 Americans, who are less optimistic than Australians but more optimistic than Britons about becoming wealthy in the next ten years, according to a new AP-CNBC poll. In all three countries, more than seven in 10 of those surveyed said they were unlikely to become millionaires in the next decade. Reflecting the psychic toll of the global economic doldrums, solid majorities of Americans — 61 percent — and Britons — 63 percent — say it’s extremely or very difficult for their countrymen to become millionaires today. “It’s an unrealistic thing for anybody to assume,” said Jason Hall, 35, a heavy equipment operator in Loganville, Wis. Across the pond, 19-year-old Natasha Hill, an apprentice at a London hair salon, said many of her friends looking for work amid high unemployment have essentially given up. “There’s no determination, nothing to aim for,” Hill said. “Everyone is in robot mode — they just settle.” On the flip side of the planet, just 35 percent of Australians feel the same way, the results found. “Oh, yes, yes, yes you can” become a millionaire, said Australian student Hannah Peters, 21. “Anybody can become a millionaire. There are so many opportunities here. You just have to know how to go about it.” The Aussies have reason to be so darned sunny. Unemployment there is 5.3 percent, nearly half the United States’ 9.1 percent. Just under 8 percent of Brits are out of work. And a natural resources boom in Western Australia is helping grow the country’s economy about 3 percent this year, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. The equivalent figure for the United Kingdom is 1.7 percent and for the U.S. economy, 2.8 percent, though many private economists expect it to be lower. Still, becoming a millionaire was tough to imagine for many Down Under. “My pay is lousy and I spend it,” said Tasmanian Brian Draney, a 47 year-old lineman and father of two young children. Polling last month by The Associated Press and CNBC found that Australians are the most optimistic of the bunch, with 29 percent of respondents there saying they feel good about their prospects of eventually becoming a millionaire in the next decade, compared with 21 percent in the U.S. and just 8 percent in the U.K. In reality, the United States leads the world in millionaires, more than 5.2 million of them in 2010, or nearly one in every 20 households, according to The Boston Consulting Group’s latest annual global wealth report. Great Britain had 570,000 millionaires, or about one in every 45 households. Australia had 133,000 or about one in every 60 households, but that’s an increase of 35,000 over the previous year. The BCG survey measured millionaires in terms of U.S. dollars. Those polled by AP and CNBC were asked how likely it was that they’d be worth a million of their own monetary unit – U.S. dollars, Australian dollars or British pounds. One million American dollars is worth about 964,000 Australian dollars, and about 633,000 British pounds. But the difference is academic when large majorities never think they’ll have such fortunes to their names. “I’ll never make a million, because my family is bleeding me dry,” said Brian Bolton, a married 47-year-old civil servant in Brisbane, Australia, who has two young children. “Every day my bank balance is substantially lighter and I don’t know where it goes.” Asked to imagine being millionaires, residents of all three countries had similar priorities for spending it: The bulk of them said they would save it, invest it, buy real estate, pay down debt and share with family, the survey said. Respondents across the board listed “saving or investing” as their first priority. The last priority? Americans and Australians listed “giving away to charity.” “I’d give charity a taste,” said Draney, the lineman from the Australian island state of Tasmania. On second thought: “That’s just asking for trouble because then they’d annoy me for the rest of my life.” Brits left “paying down debt” for last, the polls showed. Wail Al-Dour, 26, has trouble even envisioning himself as a millionaire. His chosen career, filmmaking, is tough to break into. “The environment right now is hard,” he said in London. “Everyone thinks they’re going to be just scraping by.” Back at the London hair salon, Charlotte Hagan-Boyla, 19, confesses to “spending money the day I get it.” But becoming a millionaire, she thinks, isn’t out of the question. You could win the lottery, she reasoned, or you could work your way up. “Or,” she added, “you could always marry a rich man.” ___ Associated Press Writers Cassandra Vinograd in London, Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia and Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ On the Web: http://www.cnbc.com http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-CNBC Poll on becoming a millionaire was conducted in the United States, U.K. and Australia. The poll in the United States was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. The AP-CNBC Poll of the U.K. was conducted Aug. 26-28 and Sept. 9-11 via GfK NOP Consumer’s weekly omnibus survey. The August interviews are based on landline interviews with 1,000 adults age 16 and over in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The September interviews include 1,006 different adults age 16 and over in the same countries. The AP-CNBC Poll in Australia was conducted Aug. 26-28 and Sept. 13-15 via an Australian national telephone omnibus survey overseen by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It is based on 1,000 landline interviews age 18 and over. The September interviews were re-interviews of 699 of the original respondents. Broad age quotas were applied to the sample and interviews were split between males and females within each geographical area. For the U.S. poll, interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. Interviews were conducted in English for the U.K. and Australia polls. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, U.S. poll weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for the U.K. poll was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the poll in Australia. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Sep 05 Support for keeping US bases in Japan grows as China, NKorea seen as threats By MALCOLM FOSTER Japanese have become more welcoming to the U.S. military presence in their country over the past six years as fears spread that neighboring China and North Korea are threats to peace, an Associated Press-GfK poll has found. The survey released Monday on Japanese views of other countries, security and the imperial family also showed that while about half of Japanese are positive about the U.S. and Germany, they are overwhelmingly negative or neutral toward immediate Asian neighbors China, Russia and North Korea. Opinions about South Korea are mixed. Those attitudes, as well as results showing Japanese are reluctant to allow more foreign workers into the country, suggest a general wariness of outsiders. Some 46 percent are opposed to increasing the number of immigrants — more than double the share in favor of boosting their numbers — even though doing so would help offset the shrinking labor force as the population ages. And while they gave their own elected leaders low marks, most Japanese think highly of the emperor and military. Tokyo has cast a cautious eye toward China’s increased military spending and more assertive stance on disputed islands in the region. Ties between the two countries deteriorated to their worst point in years last autumn when a Chinese fishing trawler and Japanese patrol vessels collided near islands controlled by Japan but claimed by both in the East China Sea. China’s state-run media have already issued warnings to new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda for past statements suggesting that Beijing’s military buildup is a regional security threat. For protection, Japan relies on its own military and nearly 50,000 U.S. troops based in the country under a 51-year-old joint security pact. That arrangement received extra scrutiny last year when former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama sought — and ultimately failed — to move a controversial U.S. Marine base off the southern island of Okinawa. American forces were also actively involved in humanitarian relief efforts after March’s tsunami disaster. Amid public alarm about China’s assertiveness, support for the American military bases in Japan has grown to 57 percent, while 34 percent want them withdrawn. In a similar 2005 poll, Japanese were evenly divided on the issue at 47 percent. “The U.S. military presence has received a greater acceptance, apparently because people think this region has grown more unstable than before,” Foreign Minister Koichiro Genba said Monday in response to the results. China is viewed as a threat to world peace by nearly three-quarters of respondents, and about as many have a negative impression of the country — which is also Japan’s largest trading partner. Unfavorable views of Chinese leader Hu Jintao outweigh favorable views by more than 11-to-1, the AP-GfK poll showed. North Korea, meanwhile, is viewed as a threat by even more Japanese — 80 percent, up from 59 percent in 2005. The country, which fired missiles into waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan in 2005 and again in 2006, is viewed negatively by 94 percent. Its leader, Kim Jong Il, is disliked by nine in 10. Many Japanese are supportive of their own military, called the Self-Defense Forces, with 74 percent trusting it to do the right thing all or most of the time. But people were mixed over changing the constitution to give the military a greater international role, although more favored such a change — 38 percent — than opposed — 28 percent. About a third were neutral. The Japanese Constitution, drawn up by a U.S. occupation force after World War II, prohibits the creation of an armed force that can be maintained for offensive purposes. But under pressure from the U.S. to play a larger role in regional security, Japan has become more involved in peacekeeping operations abroad. It also sent refueling ships to the Indian Ocean to help with the Afghan war. Most Japanese continue to hold Emperor Akihito, who lacks any political power, in high esteem: 70 percent view him favorably and 65 percent feel the Imperial family still fits well with modern Japanese society. Still, just 22 percent would favor giving the emperor power to set government policy, while 43 percent oppose such an expansion of imperial power. About a third are neutral. President Barack Obama is seen positively by 41 percent of respondents, with the same number viewing him in a neutral way. Some 16 percent see him unfavorably. As a country, the United States is seen favorably by 49 percent, neutrally by 36 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent. Germany garnered the smallest unfavorable rating — just 4 percent — with 48 percent giving the country a thumbs up. Chancellor Angela Merkel garnered a neutral rating from just over half the respondents, while 28 percent view her positively and 7 percent negatively. Neighboring South Korea, whose television dramas and “K-pop” singers have become increasingly popular in Japan, isn’t so popular itself, with 31 percent viewing the country positively and 27 percent negatively. Russia, meanwhile, is viewed positively by just 11 percent and negatively by 44 percent. Japan has come under fire internationally for its whale hunting, but the Japanese public narrowly favors whaling for commercial purposes, the survey showed. Fifty-two percent favor it, 35 percent are neutral and 13 percent are opposed. Far more men are in favor than women. However, few — 12 percent — are deeply interested in eating whale meat themselves. Most — 66 percent— have little or no interest in dining on whale. Commercial whaling is banned under a 1986 moratorium but various exceptions have allowed Japan, as well as Iceland and Norway, to hunt whales anyway. Japan claims its hunts are for research purposes, though the meat from the killed whales mostly ends up in restaurants, stores and school lunches. The AP-GfK telephone poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications surveyed 1,000 adults across Japan by landline telephone between July 29 and Aug. 10, and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll on attitudes and opinions of Japanese public was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the attitudes and opinions of Japanese was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from July 29 to Aug. 10. It is based on landline telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. The survey sample frame includes Japanese households that have at least one fixed telephone landline, or about 91 percent of all Japanese households, and represents the national population of Japan aged 18 and older living in the 47 prefectures (states). Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed numbers. The sample was stratified by region with targets set for the number of complete calls per region. Interviews were conducted in Japanese by live interviewers in a Tokyo-based telephone interviewing center. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s composition. That included Japan’s mix by age within sex, city or region, and by education. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.8 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Japan were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Aug 26 87% in US disapprove of Congress; Boehner, tea party take hits from debt debate By JENNIFER AGIESTA and LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press Americans are plenty angry at Congress in the aftermath of the debt crisis and Republicans could pay the greatest price, a new Associated Press-GfK poll suggests. The poll finds the tea party has lost support, Republican House Speaker John Boehner is increasingly unpopular and people are warming to the idea of not just cutting spending but also raising taxes — anathema to the GOP — just as both parties prepare for another struggle with deficit reduction. To be sure, there is plenty of discontent to go around. The poll finds more people are down on their own member of Congress, not just the institution, an unusual finding in surveys and one bound to make incumbents particularly nervous. In interviews, some people said the debt standoff itself, which caused a crisis of confidence to ripple through world markets, made them wonder whether lawmakers are able to govern at all. “I guess I long for the day back in the ’70s and ’80s when we could disagree but we could get a compromise worked out,” said Republican Scott MacGregor, 45, a Windsor, Conn., police detective. “I don’t think there’s any compromise anymore.” The results point to a chilly autumn in Washington as the divided Congress returns to the same fiscal issues that almost halted other legislative business and are certain to influence the struggle for power in the 2012 elections. They suggest that politicians, regardless of party, have little to gain by prolonging the nation’s most consequential policy debate. And they highlight the gap between the wider public’s wishes now and the tea party’s cut-it-or-shut-it philosophy that helped propel Republicans into the House majority last year. The survey, conducted Aug. 18-22, found that approval of Congress has dropped to its lowest level in AP-GfK polling — 12 percent. That’s down from 21 percent in June, before the debt deal reached fever pitch. The results indicate, too, that the question of trust remains up for grabs — a sign that the government’s stewardship of the economy over the next year will weigh heavily on the fortunes of both parties in the elections. Republicans and Democrats statistically tied, 40 percent to 43 percent respectively, when respondents were asked which party they trust more to handle the federal budget deficit. Nearly a third of independents said they trust neither party on the issue. Much about the next election hinges on independent voters, the ever-growing group fiercely wooed by campaigns for years. These respondents, the poll found, were the least forgiving toward incumbents and shifted substantially toward the need to raise taxes as part of the deficit and debt solution. Among them, 65 percent say they want their own House representative tossed out in 2012, compared with 53 percent of respondents generally. This group, too, is helping fuel the shift toward raising taxes as a way to balance the budget. The poll found that among independents, 37 percent now say that increasing taxes should be the focus of the fiscal dealmakers, over cutting government services. That’s up nine points from March, the poll found. The backlash was personal, too. Boehner, the congressional veteran from Ohio who struggled to win enough members of his own party to pass the debt deal, won approval from 29 percent of the poll’s respondents. That’s the lowest such level of his tenure and also the first time his rating is more negative than positive. Forty-seven percent of Republican respondents said they approve of Boehner; only a fifth of independents have a favorable opinion of him. The tea party, too, took a hit, according to the poll. Unfavorable views of the tea party have climbed 10 percentage points since November, when they fueled the Republican resurgence. Of those, 32 percent have a deeply unfavorable impression of the movement and just a quarter of respondents say they consider themselves supporters of the tea party — the lowest in AP-GfK polling and a dip of 8 percentage points since June. Overall, 87 percent disapproved of Congress’ performance. Entrenched partisanship explained some of the discontent. “They’re so committed to their personal ways, and party’s way, that they are having a hard time finding a middle road,” Republican Frank Chase, 77, a military retiree from Hopkinton, Mass., said of both sides. Democrat Laurie Lewis, a Rutgers University professor from Flemington, N.J., agreed with that much. “Elect those who are willing to make compromise on both sides of the hall,” she said. Still, “I don’t think it’s smart to say throw out everyone.” On budget and debt policy, the poll finds a public warming to the idea of using tax increases to help solve the fiscal crisis, a potential boon to President Barack Obama and the congressional Democrats who want to end Bush-era tax breaks for the nation’s wealthiest Americans. Republicans bristle at anything called a tax increase, though some acknowledge that more revenue must be raised. It’s perhaps the most difficult issue of the debate and carries tremendous influence over the nations’ economic future and the political fortunes of the candidates next year, when the presidency and the House and Senate majorities are at stake. The problem now rests on the shoulders of a dozen House and Senate members named to a supercommittee that will spend the fall digging into the morass that the broader Congress couldn’t solve. Asked which should be the main focus of lawmakers trying to solve that problem, raising taxes or cutting government services, 53 percent of respondents said cutting services and 34 percent said increasing taxes. That’s a shift toward raising taxes since March, when 29 percent said increasing taxes and 62 percent said cutting services. Since then, more Democrats and independents have shifted toward taxes as a means of balancing the budget, while Republican views on the question have not moved, according to the poll. Half of Democrats polled said raising taxes should be the focus over cutting services, up 10 percentage points from March. Independents showed a clear preference for cutting services over raising taxes in March, 64 percent to 28 percent. Now, only 42 percent of independents say focus on cutting services while 37 percent say increase taxes, according to the poll. Overall, 57 percent of respondents believe both that that taxes will rise and government services will be cut in order to balance the federal budget. The poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. ____ Associated Press writers Ken Thomas, Kasie Hunt and Stacy Anderson, and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius, contributed to this report. Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Congress and the budget was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Aug 26 AP-GfK Poll finds most Republicans satisfied with presidential field; Perry gets high marks By KASIE HUNT and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press After grousing for months, Republicans are growing more satisfied with their choices for president and, so far, they like what they’re hearing from the newest candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry. An Associated Press-GfK poll released Friday found that two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are pleased with the party’s presidential field, compared with just half in June. And they’re paying more attention, with 52 percent expressing a “great deal” of interest in the GOP nomination fight — compared with 39 percent earlier this summer — after a period that saw Perry enter the race and Michele Bachmann win a test vote in Iowa, the lead-off caucus state, threatening Mitt Romney’s standing at the top of the pack. The poll shows Perry — who has never run a national campaign and is just now introducing himself to most people — benefiting from wall-to-wall news coverage over the past few weeks as he became a candidate and jostled the until-then sleepy contest. Just 12 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents have a negative impression of the Texas governor. And 63 percent of Republicans view him in a positive light, compared with 33 percent in June. Beyond that, Republicans didn’t change their impressions much about Romney. Nearly 2 in 3 still view the former Massachusetts governor positively, while just under a quarter view him negatively as he runs a cautious, methodical campaign that’s facing its first true test in Perry. Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the Iowa straw poll, got roughly the same marks as Romney now that she’s boosted her national profile. Both her positive and negative ratings rose in the two months since she entered the contest and started to become better known. Broadly, the results suggest that Republicans are coming around to the idea that there may be a winner in the bunch after being less than enthusiastic for months and even though party elders continue to grouse that the field lacks a candidate strong enough to take on President Barack Obama. As recently as this week, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — again — insisted they weren’t running for president despite urging from supporters. Sarah Palin, the GOP’s 2008 vice presidential nominee, says she’ll announce in late September whether she will run. Stay-at-home mom Jennifer Bevington of Toledo, Ohio, is among those Republicans who like what they see, saying: “Out of the top three — Michele Bachmann, Perry and Romney — of who’s running, they should be able to come up with a good candidate.” Mary Parish of Troy, Tenn., had doubted for months that any of the candidates in the field were strong enough to run the country or topple Obama. Now, the retired convenience store manager says: “I like Rick Perry. I think he’s a Christian, a good Christian person. I like what he stands for, and I think he’s strong enough to beat Obama.” Still, while Republicans like them are warming up to the field, the overall population still has significant doubts and is largely unimpressed, which could bode well for Obama come the general election. Just 41 percent of all those surveyed expressed satisfaction with the official and unofficial GOP candidates, about the same as in June, and only Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor toying with a candidacy, get significantly higher favorable marks than unfavorable ones among certain or possible presidential contenders. And no Republican candidate — declared or otherwise — is viewed favorably by a majority of people. This GOP field has been remarkably slow to form as Republicans look to challenge a politically vulnerable Democratic incumbent saddled with high unemployment, rampant foreclosures and soaring debt. Now, five months before the Republican nomination contests are to begin, the field is largely set with Romney, Perry and Bachmann clustered near the top of many surveys, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Nearly everyone else is languishing far behind, including former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former pizza executive Herman Cain and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. The poll also found: —Among Republicans who back the tea party, 80 percent view Bachmann favorably while 74 percent see Perry positively. Among those Republicans who don’t back the coalition, just 37 percent have positive impressions of Bachmann and 48 percent of Perry. —Romney earns positive reviews from a broader group of Republicans than Bachmann or Perry do. Majorities of both conservative and more liberal Republicans hold favorable views of him, which suggests he may be able to stitch together a broader coalition of supporters than his rivals to win the GOP nomination. —Negative impressions of Romney among all adults grew 6 percentage points, topping 4 in 10 for the first time in AP-GfK polling. That’s a warning sign for Romney as he executes a strategy to run a general election campaign focused on Obama and the economy while appealing to a broad spectrum of voters. —Huntsman’s negative rankings crept upward during the first few months of his campaign, and he was the only GOP candidate viewed unfavorably by as many Republicans as view him positively. The poll was conducted Aug. 18-22 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellular telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll included interviews with 408 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; the margin of error for these results is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points. ____ Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Associated Press writers Ken Thomas and Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults and included 408 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Aug 25 More see country headed in wrong direction, but Bush gets more blame than Obama By TOM RAUM, Associated Press Americans’ views on the economy have dimmed this summer. But so far, the growing pessimism doesn’t seem to be taking a toll on President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects. More people now believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows, and confidence in Obama’s handling of the economy has slipped from just a few months ago, notably among fellow Democrats. The survey found that 86 percent of adults see the economy as “poor,” up from 80 percent in June. About half — 49 percent — said it worsened just in the past month. Only 27 percent responded that way in the June survey. That can’t be good news for a president revving up his re-election campaign. Yet there are several hopeful signs for Obama. Despite the perception of a weakening recovery, there has been no significant change in the number of people who say he deserves re-election: 47 percent as opposed to 48 percent two months ago. That’s a statistical dead heat with those who favor a change in the White House. And more Americans still blame former President George W. Bush rather than Obama for the economic distress. Some 31 percent put the bulk of the blame on Obama, while 51 percent point to his Republican predecessor. “I think Bush had a hand in it, too. Obama’s not totally responsible,” said Mary Parish, 68, of Troy, Tenn. An independent who voted for Republican John McCain in 2008, she said she doesn’t believe Obama has what it takes to heal the economy. “He’s a smooth-talking man. But he does not know what he’s doing.” Obama also fares better than Congress in the blame department. Some 44 percent put “a lot” or “most” of the blame on Republicans while 36 percent point to congressional Democrats. The gloomy economic outlook reflected in the poll, which was taken Aug. 18-22, follows a round of bleak government economic reports — on unemployment, the housing market and economic growth that fell below 1 percent for the first six months of the year. It was taken amid heightened worries of a new U.S. recession, fallout from a downgrade of the country’s credit rating and a spreading European debt crisis. As the public’s outlook on the economy dips, so has approval for the president’s economic stewardship. More than 6 in 10 — 63 percent — disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. Nearly half, or 48 percent, “strongly” disapproved. Approval of his economic performance now stands at just 36 percent, his worst approval rating on the issue in AP-GfK polling. Among Democrats, 58 percent approve of the president’s handling of the economy, down from 65 percent in June. Among Republicans, approval dipped to 9 percent from 15 percent. Just 51 percent consider Obama a strong leader, down from 60 percent in June and 65 percent following the capture and death of Osama bin Laden in May. In June, 85 percent of Democrats in the poll called him a strong leader. Now, the number is down to 76 percent. Of course, there are limits to what a president can do. “I think he can nudge it along, but really, it boils down to the private sector,” said Dan Elliott, 42, of Hillsboro, Ill., an independent who voted for Obama in 2008 and says he’ll probably vote for him again. Judith Lee, 63, a retired teacher from Great Diamond Island, Maine, said she’s a Republican who voted for Obama in 2008 but has been disappointed by his leadership style. “I don’t think he is a very forceful leader,” Lee said. “His style of leadership seems to be to look for consensus and ideas from other people, and it seems to have been ineffective. And Congress seems to be deadlocked on problems.” Some 75 percent in the poll said the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 63 percent in June. Among Democrats, 61 percent chose “wrong direction” — up from 46 percent in June. And for the first time for Obama in the poll, a majority of all adults said they disapprove of his overall performance — 52 percent, up from 47 percent in June. Among Democrats, approval fell 8 points, to 74 percent from 82 percent in June. Among Republicans, it fell to 11 percent from 22 percent. Politically, the poll underscores the difficult time ahead for Obama as he seeks re-election in a shaky economy. Unemployment increased to 9.2 percent in July, up from 9.1 percent in June. And most economists don’t expect it to decline much below 8.5 percent by the November 2012 presidential election. No president has won re-election with a jobless rate that high since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. So why hasn’t the rise in pessimism taken more of a toll? Despite the general rise in gloom, it seems unlikely that liberal Democrats will flock away from Obama even if they have rising doubts about his agenda or economic leadership, analysts suggest. And independents, who helped elect Obama in 2008 and are now being actively wooed by both parties, did not exhibit significant changes in their approval levels. It was at 44 percent, statistically no different from the 43 percent approval rating among independents in June. “A lot is out of his hands,” said Penny Johansen, 65, a retired legal secretary from Tempe, Ariz. “There is only so much one person can do, and one person cannot be blamed for the acts of others.” Politically unaligned, she voted for Obama in 2008 and says she’ll probably do so again. On related economic issues, 59 percent said they disapproved of Obama’s handling of tax issues, up from 53 percent in June. And 64 percent said they disapproved of his handling of the annual budget deficit, compared with 63 percent in June. Sixty percent described the financial situation in their own households as “good,” about even with the level in June. Asked if they expected their financial situation to change over the next 12 months, 31 percent said they expected it to get better, 12 percent expected it to get worse and a majority — 56 percent — said they expected it to “stay about the same.” As to creating jobs, some 44 percent said they would trust Democrats to do a better job, while 42 percent said Republicans would. The AP-GfK poll was conducted Aug. 18-22 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. ___ Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Associated Press writers Kasie Hunt and Stacy Anderson contributed to this report. ___ Online: Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cellphone only and both — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Jul 25 Stresses over personal debt return as public doubts on economic recovery grow By CONNIE CASS, Associated Press Just last fall, Americans were feeling better about their personal finances. Now they’re starting to worry more about how they’ll pay off debts as they feel the nation’s economic recovery wobbling. With Congress deadlocked over how to deal with the national debt, household debt is causing stress for nearly half the country, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. One in five adults worries about debt most or all of the time. If they bought something on a credit card in the past month, more than a third say they won’t pay it off when the bill comes. The increased stress represents a reversal from last fall’s AP-GfK poll, which found increasing confidence about personal finances. Debt-related stress is up 17 percent from that November survey, bumping such worries back up to levels seen in 2009 and in the spring of last year. “It’s not that our debt is huge. It’s just hard to make it, month to month,” said Theresa Telford, 45, a teacher’s aide raising four kids with her husband, a sheriff’s deputy. “It seems like everything is going up, but wages aren’t going up.” Telford is also nervous because she’s watched so many people lose their jobs in her small town of Davenport, Wash., and some of her friends still can’t find work. Although the recession officially ended in June 2009, Americans display little faith in a recovery hobbled by grinding unemployment, slow economic growth, volatile gasoline and food prices and political feuding over how to stem the skyrocketing national debt. Consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in June in the Conference Board’s survey. “We’re starting to be fearful again that things may fall apart,” said Paul J. Lavrakas, a research psychologist and AP consultant who analyzed the survey. Lavrakas and other researchers have found that debt can be bad for the health as well as the wallet. Those suffering the most anxiety over their debt are at risk for stress-related illnesses, such as ulcers, depression or heart attacks. The poll found that households earning more than $75,000 had the biggest increase in debt-related stress since November. But stress levels continue to be highest within the most vulnerable groups: households that have lost jobs, people with family incomes below $20,000, single parents, and adults without high school diplomas. Married moms and adults under 30 years old showed significantly more anxiety than in the fall. In all, more than 40 million Americans are feeling serious stress over the money they owe, whether it’s for credit cards, mortgages, car loans or other debts, the poll indicates. It’s a tough period for high school dance instructor James J. Moran of Shelton, Conn. He doesn’t get paid during summer break, except for the occasional dancing or acting jobs he lands. “For three months I scrape by and I can only afford to make the minimum payments on my credit cards,” said Moran, who owes more than $5,000 on his cards and about $14,000 in student loans. “I put more toward the debts when I can, but when I can’t that’s when I really worry.” The news isn’t all bleak. Although it ticked upward, the Debt Stress Index based on the AP-GfK poll came in at 29.2, still within the range considered moderately low. Most people say they are handling their credit cards well in lean times. Nine out of 10 people with credit cards say they trust themselves to handle debt. Most say they use credit cards because they’re more convenient than cash. About half say they charge only what they can afford to pay for at the end of the month. “Am I going off and buying things right now? No,” said Donald Doane, 53, of Duluth, Minn. Doane said he carries “a little debt but nothing I can’t handle” on a low-interest credit card that he reserves for emergencies and big purchases. A salesman for Savories Catering in Duluth, Minn., Doane tracks the economy by how much his customers spend on wedding receptions and office parties. “People are spending,” he said, “it’s just that they’re being more frugal.” Americans have been borrowing less and saving more in response to the Great Recession and its aftermath. Credit card borrowing increased in May, only the second monthly gain since August 2008, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest figures. The total is still down 18.5 percent from its peak in August 2008. The AP-GfK poll put median credit card debt in June at $800, the same as in November. Average debt was down slightly from November at $3,200. About four in 10 people surveyed owe more than $1,000 in credit card debt. One in every 10 owes $10,000 or more. Lavrakas said the poll provides a snapshot of the typical American who’s seriously stressed by debt: a working parent, in his or her 30s or early 40s, who doesn’t have a high school diploma and is raising a family on household income of less than $20,000. Those reporting the highest stress levels were more likely than others to say they had debt due to medical bills, that their financial situation was “very poor,” that they charge things they know they cannot pay off when the bill comes and that they don’t trust themselves to manage their credit cards. They are pessimistic about the future, both because of their personal finances and the nation’s. “The most stressed people are at the lower financial tiers, and that’s just the reality of their life,” Lavrakas said. “The optimism that some of them may have had last fall didn’t pan out. They’ve sunk into being pessimistic and they have good reason to be.” Troy Clawson, a disabled former construction worker in Felsenthal, Ark., said he has been worrying more about his debts — his mortgage and car payments, medical bills for himself and his wife, and store credit cards at Wal-Mart and an auto repair shop. So Clawson, 60, is trying to be more cautious and avoid pulling out his credit cards. “I don’t really like to,” he said, “but sometimes it’s necessary when you’re in a bind.” The AP-GfK poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, including 715 who have credit cards. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. ___ Associated Press writer Stacy Anderson, Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the debt-stress poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on debt-related stress was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults, including 715 credit card holders. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for credit card holders is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Jul 14 Debit card fees might change behavior By CANDICE CHOI Americans prefer using their debit cards at the register. But a small fee could change that. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that about two-thirds of consumers use debit cards more frequently than credit cards. But when debit card holders were asked how they would react if they were charged a $3 monthly fee for their debit card, 61 percent say they’d find another way to pay. If the fee was $5, 66 percent would do the same. If the fee was $7, the figure rises to 81 percent. The findings come at a time when consumers are seeing unwelcome changes to their debit cards and the checking accounts to which they’re linked. Although banks haven’t started imposing monthly fees for debit cards, there are signs higher costs could be on the way. Starting in October, a new cap will sharply limit the revenue banks can collect from merchants whenever customers swipe their debit cards. That revenue has been a critical income source for banks; merchants paid issuers $19.7 billion for debit transactions in 2009, according to the Nilson Report, which tracks the payments industry. Consumers are already seeing the fallout. Chase, PNC Bank and Wells Fargo ended or scaled back their debit rewards programs citing the new regulation. The availability of free checking accounts also declined last year for the first time since 2003. And more changes could be in store. Chase, for example, is testing a $3 monthly fee for debit cards on new accounts in northern Wisconsin. In Atlanta, it’s testing a $15 monthly fee on basic checking accounts. Among the AP-GfK poll respondents who say they would leave their debit cards in their wallets in the face of such fees, more say they’d pay with cash, 53 percent, or check, 42 percent, rather than another form of plastic. “Cash or checks — they’re not very expensive,” said Aaron Alto, a 44-year-old resident of Grand Rapids, Minn. Alto says he’d be annoyed enough to look for an alternative to his debit card if the fees approached $10. Debit card fees would cause 22 percent to switch to credit cards, and 12 percent say they would switch to a prepaid spending card. For now, the notable preference for debit could be linked to a negative sentiment about credit cards; nearly half of respondents to the AP-GfK poll say the interest rates they’re charged are unfair. That may be because 30 percent had their interest rates hiked in the past two years. That’s more than twice the number who say their rates were lowered. Forty-two percent of respondents also say the fees and penalties on their cards are unfair; 37 percent say card issuers recently raised those potential charges. The higher rates and fees may have surprised consumers in light of the new regulations that were intended to protect cardholders and put an end to questionable billing practices. Under the rules that went into effect last February, cardholders are now entitled to 45 days notice before their rates are hiked. Card issuers are also prohibited from raising rates on existing balances, a once-common practice that consumer advocates had long decried. Additionally, the one-time penalty fees for late payments are capped at $25 per violation. But there’s no limit on how high banks can hike interest rates on purchases or the default interest rates that kick in when customers are late on payments. Earl Law, a 61-year-old resident of Buffalo, N.Y., said the penalty rate on a few of his cards is 30 percent. “It’s absurd. It’s usurious,” he said. “If you’re struggling with debt, that’s the last thing you need. You’re asking people to fail.” Despite the widespread discontent with interest rates, the regulations are having a clear, positive impact in one area: monthly statements. Nearly half of respondents say they’re now easier to understand. Part of the reason is that the new law requires credit card issuers to spell out the cost of carrying a balance. For example, statements now include a chart that shows how long it would take to pay off a balance if only minimum payments were made. The chart also includes the total amount the cardholder would pay over that time, including interest charges. The increased transparency might be one reason why the majority of consumers — 78 percent — say they plan to stick with their cards, despite their grumblings about high rates and fees. It could also be that consumers have grown numb to unpleasant changes. In the months leading up to the passage of the new regulations, many cardholders saw their interest rates hiked, credit limits slashed and inactive accounts shut down. The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, including 715 who have credit cards and 706 debit card holders. Results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points; it is 4.8 points for those with credit or debit cards. ___ Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on changes to credit card laws was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellphones. The sample included 715 credit card holders and 706 debit card holders. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. For results among credit card holders and debit card holders, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Jun 25 Now what? Prospect of US debt default finds people in state of doomsday fatigue By Calvin Woodward It might be time for another midnight ride by Paul Revere, this time warning “the creditors are coming.” Americans seem not to have awakened to the fast-looming debt crisis that could summon a new recession, imperil their stock market investments and shatter faith in the world’s most powerful economy. Those are among the implications, both sudden and long-lasting, expected to unfold if the U.S. defaults on debt payments for the first time in history. Facing an August deadline for raising the country’s borrowing limit or setting loose the consequences, politicians and economists are plenty alarmed. The people? Apparently not so much. They’re divided on whether to raise the limit, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that found 41 percent opposed to the idea and 38 percent in favor. People aren’t exactly blase. A narrow majority in the poll expects an economic crisis to ensue if the U.S., maxed out on its borrowing capacity, starts missing interest payments to creditors. But even among that group, 37 percent say no dice to raising the limit. In Washington’s humid air, talk of a financial apocalypse is thick. There are warnings of “credit markets in a state of panic,” as the House Budget Committee chairman, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., put it, causing a sudden drop-off in the country’s ability to borrow and pushing the government off a “credit cliff.” He was characterizing a report by the government’s nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office that warns of a “sudden fiscal crisis” in which investors might abandon U.S. bonds and force the government to pay steep interest rates and impose spending cuts and tax increases far more Draconian than if default were avoided. The dire warnings appear to be falling on unconvinced ears, at least so far. Call it doomsday fatigue. In recent times, Americans heard that things were going to go haywire with the turn of the millennium, and they didn’t. They were primed for post-Sept. 11 terrorist plots that did not unfold. They’ve seen Congress, a lumbering body that gets fleet of foot at the last minute, come to the brink time after time, only to pull something out of its hat. Recently, a partial government shutdown was averted in that manner. To Robin Knight, 50-year-old teacher from Gilbert, Ariz., who’s trying to stay informed on the debt crisis, Washington’s tendency to cry wolf and stage histrionics on issues of the day isn’t helping. “It should be very easy to understand,” she said, “but I think there are so many skewed views and time given to people screaming that it can be hard to follow.” As during the lead-up to the government shutdown that didn’t happen, tortured negotiations are under way. Republican leaders are insisting on huge spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt limit. This position finds solid support from Republicans in the poll and backing from a plurality of independents. President Barack Obama is pushing for increased tax revenue to be part of the deal, and that insistence led House Republican leader Eric Cantor of Virginia to walk out of the negotiations this past week. About half of Democrats in the poll said the debt limit should be raised regardless of whether it’s paired with a deal to cut spending. The survey found no significant differences by education, age, income, or even by party, in perceptions of whether a crisis is likely if the limit is not increased. There was widespread dissatisfaction with how Obama is dealing with the deficit — a new high of 63 percent disapproval on that subject — and an even harsher judgment of how both parties in Congress are doing on the issue. A deal would permit the government to resume borrowing more than $100 billion a month to pay its bills. Paradoxically — or “perversely,” as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke put it — the absence of a deal would not stop the nation’s debt from climbing. Bernanke said the stain on U.S. creditworthiness would drive up deficits simply by saddling the country with higher interest rates on borrowing. Deficit hawks at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget say a 1 percentage point jump in interest rates paid by Washington would increase deficits by $1.3 trillion through 2021, essentially adding a year’s worth of red ink. Although people in the poll betray plenty of concern about the debt, the prospect of a calamity-triggering default if the debt deadline is not met in August clearly is not dominating their calculations. The AP-GfK poll, as do many surveys over time, points to a divide in how people see the country and their own lives. The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Although 80 percent ranked the economy as poor, 63 percent also said the financial situation in their own household was good. Also, 70 percent predicted the economy will improve or stay about the same in the next year. A majority says it’s a good time to put money into real estate. Altogether, it’s not unlike the bumper sticker sported on some cars when the world as we know it was supposed to end back in May: “After the Rapture, can I have your car?” ___ AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Stacy Anderson contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the debt ceiling was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jun 23 Bachmann, Pawlenty make gains as Republicans get better acquainted with GOP field By JENNIFER AGIESTA and NANCY BENAC, Associated Press Republicans are starting to pay more attention to the candidates who hope to take on President Barack Obama next year, and so far that’s been a good thing for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty. For Newt Gingrich, not so much. Overall, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows, Republicans are giving the field of challengers a so-so assessment as interest in the race increases. And, with growing doubts among Americans that Obama deserves re-election, Democratic interest in the GOP field is significant, too. Bachmann, a three-term congresswoman supported by many tea party members, enjoyed a big boost in her favorability rating among Republicans after she turned in a smooth debate performance this month and joined the presidential race. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty also made progress with Republicans, particularly among tea party supporters. GOP field leader Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, held steady in the eyes of Republicans — but gained no ground — with the formal launch of his campaign. Former House Speaker Gingrich, who announced his campaign five weeks ago, wasn’t feeling the love. The Georgian’s favorability rating among Republicans plunged in one month from 61 percent to 43 percent as his campaign was plagued by massive staff defections, abysmal fund-raising and reports that he and his wife had racked up huge bills at luxury jeweler Tiffany’s. Gingrich did the logical thing in response: dismiss the importance of early political handicapping. In an appearance this week, he noted that if early conventional wisdom had been accurate, Hillary Rodham Clinton would have won the Democratic nomination for president in 2008, not Barack Obama, and Rudy Giuliani would have been the GOP nominee, not John McCain. There was plenty for political spectators to watch in the past month as GOP candidates moved themselves in — and out — of contention, and more Republicans tuned in: 71 percent of Republicans surveyed said they had a great deal or quite of bit of interest in the contest, compared with 65 percent in May and March. That isn’t necessarily translating into enthusiasm, however. “There’s no dynamite person,” said 66-year-old Rich McGough, of Mount Gretna, Pa. But McGough allowed that Bachmann offers some “pizazz,” and Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who’s considering joining the race, also would be solid choices. Republicans can take comfort that satisfaction with the GOP field rose. Fifty-two percent said they were satisfied with the slate this month, up from 41 percent a month earlier. And satisfaction was highest among those who were paying the closest attention. Overall, Americans are about evenly divided on whether Obama deserves re-election — 48 percent say yes, 47 percent no — and that could be driving broader interest in the GOP nomination race. Among all those surveyed, 59 percent said they were interested in the GOP contest. But just 39 percent were satisfied with the Republican field of candidates. Among independents, 57 percent were dissatisfied. The expected GOP field has done considerable shifting this spring, gaining Bachmann and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman while losing Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, and businessman Donald Trump. Some voters remain hopeful the lineup ultimately will include candidates who are still big question marks: Perry, former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and former New York Mayor Giuliani. Rancher and school teacher Jeanne Renfro, 52, from Channing, Texas, says she’d like to see Perry join the race. “I’m not sure that I would actually vote for Rick Perry, but I think if he would actually get in he would bring some valuable debate to the issues,” she said. Overall, Renfro said, “I’m not too impressed” with the GOP field. Among other poll details: —Republicans still give Romney the highest favorability rating among announced candidates, at 61 percent. Palin, who’s keeping everyone guessing about her intentions, is holding steady, too, with a 63 percent favorability rating. —Bachmann’s favorability rating jumped from 41 percent to 54 percent among Republicans. A third still have no opinion about her, and it’s too soon to tell if her boost will endure or was a June phenomenon. —Huntsman, who announced his candidacy this week but still is relatively unknown nationally, had a 23 percent favorability rating among Republicans. He’s gotten better known — 59 percent had no opinion about him in the latest poll, down slightly from 66 percent a month earlier. But the result was an increase in those with an unfavorable opinion, from 11 percent to 17 percent, with a greater uptick among tea party supporters. —Pawlenty, one of the first to get into the race, saw his favorable ratings rise 10 percentage points to 43 percent. His support among tea party backers was up 11 points. The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The survey included 429 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.2 percentage point margin of error. ___ Associated Press News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults and included 429 Republicans. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use _ landline only, cell only and both types _ by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for Republicans is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Jun 22 Slow economic recovery hurting Obama politically as re-election campaign nears By JIM KUHNHENN and STACY ANDERSON, Associated Press Mired in economic worry, Americans are growing gloomier about where the country is headed and the way President Barack Obama is leading it. Opinions of the economy are at the lowest of the year as high gas prices, anemic hiring and financial turmoil abroad shake a nation’s confidence. Obama has hit new highs he’d like to avoid — in public disapproval over his handling of the economy in general and unemployment in particular — according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. In addition, more disapprove of his handling of health care and the federal budget deficit than in the past. The poll shows that four out of five people now believe the economy is in poor shape. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, said Wednesday the economy was growing more slowly than expected but maintained that the causes were temporary. The White House must hope so. A little more than 16 months before the November 2012 election, the public is split on whether the president deserves a second term. It’s the first time this year in AP-GfK polling that the respondents saying he deserves re-election have fallen below 50 percent, a demanding challenge for Obama. Economic concern has quickly stripped away the gloss he briefly gained after the death of Osama bin Laden. Obama’s re-election team is no doubt concerned as well. The president has been traveling every week for months to campaign battleground states to promote job initiatives. He acknowledges the sluggishness of the recovery, illustrated by May’s uptick in unemployment. The price of gasoline at the pump has declined a bit recently though it is still nearly 90 cents higher on average than a year ago. White House officials are also monitoring the precarious fiscal situation in Greece where a default by the government could send damaging financial tremors across world markets. Obama’s overall approval rating fell to 52 percent in the new poll, in line with his ratings before the daring raid in Pakistan by U.S. commandos last month that killed bin Laden. “I just think that he’s not doing his job the way he should be,” said Mary Perrine, a grandmother of three from Indiana who said she has had to struggle to pay her bills. Still, the poll also showed the public to be conflicted about the president. And their perceptions about the national economy were often at odds with their own personal experiences. More people — 56 percent of respondents — had a favorable impression of Obama himself than approved of his performance. Moreover, about three-quarters of the survey participants said it is unrealistic to expect noticeable results on the economy in one term. And despite the overwhelming sentiment that the national economy is in poor shape, more than three of five of those polled rated the financial situation of their own households as good. While glum about the current state of the economy, one-third said they expect it to get better over the next year. Less than a third said it would get worse, and the remainder said it would remain the same. In another consolation for the president, he rates far better than Congress with the public. Congressional job disapproval climbed to 76 percent in the poll, a new high. Obama may have to count on the likes of John Holdnak, a Florida Department of Education administrator, who didn’t vote for him in 2008 buts believes “he has really stepped up to do this job.” Does Obama deserve re-election? “I don’t know yet. A lot of things can happen now and between the election that could be his fault. At this particular juncture, he hasn’t done anything in my mind not to be re-elected,” said Holdnak, one of the survey participants. The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. ___ Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the Obama-Economy poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . May 24 Federal budget can be balanced without cutting Social Security and Medicare They’re not buying it. Most Americans say they don’t believe Medicare has to be cut to balance the federal budget, and ditto for Social Security, a new poll shows. The Associated Press-GfK poll suggests that arguments for overhauling the massive benefit programs to pare government debt have failed to sway the public. The debate is unlikely to be resolved before next year’s elections for president and Congress. Americans worry about the future of the retirement safety net, the poll found, and 3 out of 5 say the two programs are vital to their basic financial security as they age. That helps explain why the Republican Medicare privatization plan flopped, and why President Barack Obama’s Medicare cuts to finance his health care law contributed to Democrats losing control of the House in last year’s elections. Medicare seems to be turning into the new third rail of politics. “I’m pretty confident Medicare will be there, because there would be a rebellion among voters,” said Nicholas Read, 67, a retired teacher who lives near Buffalo, N.Y. “Republicans only got a hint of that this year. They got burned. They touched the hot stove.” Combined, Social Security and Medicare account for about a third of government spending, a share that will only grow. Economic experts say the cost of retirement programs for an aging society is the most serious budget problem facing the nation. The trustees who oversee Social Security and Medicare recently warned the programs are “not sustainable” over the long run under current financing. Nearly every solution for Social Security is politically toxic, because the choices involve cutting benefits or raising taxes. Medicare is even harder to fix because the cost of modern medicine is going up faster than the overall cost of living, outpacing economic growth as well as tax revenues. “Medicare is an incredibly complex area,” said former Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who used to chair the Budget Committee. “It’s a matrix that is almost incomprehensible. Unlike Social Security, which has four or five moving parts, Medicare has hundreds of thousands. There is no single approach to Medicare, whereas with Social Security everyone knows where the problem is.” That’s not what the public sees, however. “It’s more a matter of bungling, and lack of oversight, and waste and fraud, and padding of the bureaucracy,” said Carolyn Rodgers, who lives near Memphis, Tenn., and is still working as a legal assistant at 74. “There is no reason why even Medicare, if it had been handled right, couldn’t have been solvent.” In the poll, 54 percent said it’s possible to balance the budget without cutting spending for Medicare, and 59 percent said the same about Social Security. Taking both programs together, 48 percent said the government could balance the budget without cutting either one. Democrats and political independents were far more likely than Republicans to say that neither program will have to be cut. The recession cost millions their jobs and sent retirement savings accounts into a nosedive. It may also have underscored the value of government programs. Social Security kept sending monthly benefits to 55 million recipients, like clockwork; Medicare went on paying for everything from wheelchairs to heart operations. Overall, 70 percent in the poll said Social Security is “extremely” or “very” important to their financial security in retirement, and 72 percent said so for Medicare. Sixty-two percent said that both programs are extremely or very important. The sentiment was a lot stronger among the elderly. Eighty-four percent of those 65 or older said both programs are central to their financial security. Compare that to adults under 30, just starting out. Just under half, or 46 percent, said they believed both Social Security and Medicare would be extremely or very important to their financial security in retirement. Old, middle-aged or just entering the workforce, most people are keenly aware of the cost of health care, and that may be helping to focus more attention on Medicare. “Health insurance these days is very costly, and it’s not something that most people can afford to go out and buy on their own,” said Tim Messner, 38, a technology quality assurance analyst from Barberton, Ohio. “I don’t know that we could possibly plan ahead for medical insurance, but if you had to replace Social Security or investments, you at least have an idea of what you can live on.” Numbers tell the story. As health care goes up, the value of Medicare benefits is catching up to Social Security’s. A two-earner couple with average wages retiring in 1980 would have expected to receive health care worth $132,000 through Medicare over their remaining lifetimes, and $446,000, or about three times more, in Social Security payments. For a similar couple who retired last year, the Medicare benefit will be worth $343,000, compared to Social Security payments totaling $539,000, less than twice as much. The numbers, from economists at the nonpartisan Urban Institute, are adjusted for inflation to allow direct comparison. For low-income single retirees and some couples, the value of expected Medicare benefits already exceeds that of Social Security. The poll found a deep current of pessimism about the future of Social Security and Medicare. As much as Americans say the programs are indispensable, only 35 percent say it’s extremely or very likely that Social Security will be there to pay benefits through their entire retirement. For Medicare, it was 36 percent. Again, there’s a sharp difference between what the public believes and what experts say. Most experts say the programs will be there for generations to come. But they may look very different than they do today, and Americans should take note. “Do they have a basis for worrying that these programs are going to pay them much less than they’re currently promising?” asked economist Charles Blahous. “Yes, absolutely. Do they have a basis for being concerned that the programs may have to be structurally changed in order to survive? The answer to that is yes, too.” A trustee of Social Security and Medicare, Blahous served as an economic adviser to President George W. Bush. Republican lawmakers don’t inspire much confidence right now when it comes to dealing with retirement programs, the poll found. Democrats have the advantage as the party more trusted to do a better job handling Social Security by 52 percent to 34 percent, and Medicare by 54 percent to 33 percent. Often, but not always, major revisions have been accomplished through bipartisan compromise. Sue DeSantis, 61, a store clerk from West Milton, Ohio, worries she won’t be able to rely on either program. Both are important to her well-being, but she thinks changes are inevitable. And she has little confidence in lawmakers. “I don’t put my faith in politicians, and I don’t put my faith in the government,” said DeSantis. “I’m a Christian. I believe that God will take care of me. That doesn’t mean I should be foolish and not look at anything, but I don’t believe that the politicians are necessarily going to do the best for the common ordinary person like myself.” The Associated Press-GfK poll was conducted May 5-9, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ____ Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ____ Online: Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Medicare and Social Security was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and STEPHEN OHLEMACHER May 20 Gas prices force many to change vacation plans and drive less; some skimp on medicine By JENNIFER AGIESTA and JENNIFER C. KERR With gasoline prices hovering at $4 a gallon nationally, many Americans are making tough choices: scaling back summer vacations, driving less or ditching the car altogether. Some seniors are choosing a tank of gas over their prescriptions. An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the share of Americans who say increases in the price of gasoline will cause serious financial hardship for them or their family in the next six months now tops 4 in 10. Overall in the poll, 71 percent said rising prices will cause some hardship for them and their family, including 41 percent who called it a “serious” hardship. Just 29 percent said rising prices are not causing a negative impact on their finances. By income, 63 percent of those with annual household incomes over $50,000 now say rising prices are causing financial hardship, up from 55 percent in March. For older Americans, it’s worse. The share of seniors expressing financial hardship over gas prices hit 76 percent; it was 68 percent in March. Nettie Cash, 65, of Dallas, Ga., is cutting back on her medicine because of the cost of fueling up her Buick. Cash is still taking her heart pills but is forgoing her inhaler and ulcer medicine for now. “It’s not easy,” she said. “You have to do what you have to do.” The public’s coping strategies are largely unchanged from March, with 72 percent having cut back on other expenses, 66 percent saying they’ve reduced the amount of driving they do and 48 percent changing vacation plans. Since January, gas prices have shot up about 90 cents, with the national average for a gallon of regular this week at $3.96. Financial analyst Nicole Polite in Baltimore sold her Nissan Altima recently and is taking public transportation, opting for the bus, rails and walking to get to work. Gas prices were just too high, she says, so she and her boyfriend downsized to a one-car household. She says they kept their Lexus sedan, which requires pricey premium gas. “It’s definitely a financial strain because now you have to reassess everything,” said Polite, 32. “We don’t go out as much. That $20 that we could have used to go to a movie — now that money has been absorbed by the gas tank.” But analysts say relief is coming. Fred Rozell, retail pricing director at the Oil Price Information Service, expects the price at the pump to drop as much as 40 cents in the next four weeks. Until that happens, Ross Cobb in Boerne, Texas, will still try to keep his highway miles down. Cobb says he and his wife have been driving less and curbing trips into the city for their children’s clothing and other supplies. “We coordinate all of our trips into San Antonio,” said Cobb, an associate athletic director at the University of Texas. “We don’t ever go in anymore just for one particular errand. We wait until we’ve got two or three things to do.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted May 5-9 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ Polling Director Trevor Tompson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on gasoline prices was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . May 13 Republicans shrug at GOP’s 2012 field By JENNIFER AGIESTA and NANCY BENAC The more Republicans get to know their potential White House candidates, the less happy they are with their choices. It’s not that they dislike the individual candidates. They just give them a collective shrug as possible opponents for President Barack Obama. They’d like someone with a little more pizazz. Some 45 percent now say they’re dissatisfied with the GOP candidates who have declared or are thought to be serious about running, up from 33 percent two months ago, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Just 41 percent are satisfied with the likely Republican field, down from 52 percent. Plenty are holding out for somebody else. In North Carolina, retiree Robert Osborne is hoping New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will decide to run. In Indiana, farmer Brent Smith wishes Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour hadn’t backed away. In Georgia, stock clerk Susan Demarest would love to see somebody more like Ronald Reagan. Ohio’s William Johnson just wants somebody who’s not a “cold fish.” “I don’t expect them to get up there and start doing karaoke, but we need somebody with a little more spunk,” says the Columbus steelworker. While the Republican roster of candidates is growing almost by the day — Ron Paul declared on Thursday, and Mike Huckabee says he’ll make an important announcement this weekend — satisfaction with the field appears to be shrinking. Future polling could give a better idea of whether the dramatic raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, which gave a boost to Obama’s approval rating, also served to dampen enthusiasm temporarily for Republican candidates. The poll was conducted May 5-9 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The survey included 378 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.9 percentage point margin of error. Four years ago at this time, there was a clearly different dynamic for the GOP. In late May 2007, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found Republicans generally content with their choices: 68 percent said they were satisfied with “the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president,” though that was well below the 79 percent level of satisfaction among Democrats. So far this year, it looks like a case of GOP buyer’s remorse before all the merchandise is even out on the shelves. Lori Raney, who owns a drapery workroom in Canton, Ga., says she’s sure to vote for the party’s eventual nominee. But so far, she says, no standout candidate has emerged. She’d be happy to vote for somebody with a level head, but says a lot of voters demand something more. “Nowadays, people don’t really care about qualifications and common sense,” she says. “They want the celebrity figure to run for president. Republicans just don’t have the celebrity-type figure.” Smith, the farmer from Zionsville, Ind., sees some good choices in the field and hopes that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets the nomination. But he confesses, “In truth, I don’t think there’s a Republican out there” who can beat Obama, because of the president’s strong support among minority voting blocs. Candidate by candidate, Republicans display widely varying impressions of those who are in the GOP race or thinking about joining. With the field still gelling, a number of potential candidates are so little known that many Republicans can’t venture an opinion. Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee, who is viewed favorably by 72 percent of Republicans, has the highest rating of the lot. He’s thinking about running and said Friday he planned a “very important” announcement on his TV show this weekend. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who was the GOP vice presidential nominee in 2008, is viewed favorably by two-thirds of Republicans, as is Romney, who made a strong bid for the presidential nomination last time. Romney has all but announced this time; Palin is more of a question mark. Palin’s support has held steady among Republicans in recent months, but her unfavorable rating among all adults is at a new high of 59 percent. Just 36 percent of Americans overall have a favorable opinion of her. Romney’s favorability rating among Republicans has actually improved since March, growing from 59 percent to 66 percent. The only other major Republican with a favorability rating above 50 percent in the poll was former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who didn’t enter the presidential race until the week after the poll was conducted. His favorability rating was 61 percent. Businessman-TV celebrity Donald Trump was the only potential candidate to draw unfavorable reviews from half of Republicans. Forty-five percent viewed him favorably compared to 50 percent who rated him unfavorably. GOP favorability ratings for lesser-known Republicans asked about in the poll: former Texas Rep. Paul, 49 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota , 41 percent; former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 36 percent; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 33 percent; Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, 30 percent; former Utah Gov. and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 20 percent. ___ Polling Director Trevor Tompson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the GOP-2012 poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It was based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults, including 378 Republicans. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of error for Republicans was plus or minus 6.9 percentage points. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . May 11 Bin Laden killing justified, Americans overwhelmingly say; Obama support boosted By JENNIFER AGIESTA and ROBERT BURNS Was the U.S. right to kill Osama bin Laden? Absolutely, and about time, Americans say. A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows the nation supporting the raid with rare unanimity, and the glow from the operation is also boosting approval for President Barack Obama’s handling of terrorism and the war in Afghanistan. Few events have sparked such soaring approval from the nation, and almost nothing has since George W. Bush’s handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism in the months following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Enthusiasm for the risky raid after its success has given Obama some of his highest marks since early in his presidency, and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected. At the same time, many say bin Laden’s death has increased the threat of terrorism against America. The death, after nearly a decade-long hunt, of the man blamed for killing thousands of Americans also appeared to help boost Americans’ optimism in areas that would seem to have little connection to bin Laden, terrorism or national security. More Americans — 45 percent, up from 35 percent in March — say the country is headed in the right direction. Still, about half — 52 percent — say things are heading the wrong way, reflecting the effect of more polarizing domestic issues such as the economy, federal budget deficit and health care overhaul. Despite a sluggish recovery from the Great Recession, 52 percent of Americans now approve of Obama’s stewardship of the economy, giving him his best rating on that issue since the early days of his presidency. Overall, Obama’s approval rating is up to 60 percent from 53 percent in March and the 47 percent low point following last fall’s congressional elections. It was 64 percent in May 2009, just months after he was sworn into office. Independents, who are likely to be a key voting bloc in the 2012 presidential election, caused the new uptick in support by sliding back to Obama. The AP-GfK results were striking in that they found Obama with a higher approval rating than other recent polls that generally said he was in the low 50s. Polls often produce varying results because of differences in question wording and polling methodology. Also, during periods when public opinion about an issue is particularly volatile, and at times when the public is being presented with rapidly changing information, it is not uncommon to see wider variations across polls, even those conducted around the same time. Some conservatives criticized the AP-GfK poll as heavy with responses from Democrats that skewed the results. AP-GfK polls use a consistent methodology that draws a random sample of the population independent of party identification. Such identification is not static and tends to fluctuate over time along with other political opinions. However, the change in party identification in the current AP-GfK current poll is not a statistically significant shift from the previous poll in March and could not by itself explain the poll findings The poll reflected somewhat mixed feelings by Americans about the ramifications of the bin Laden raid and the general trend of terrorist threats. Although nearly nine in 10 of those polled approved of killing the al-Qaida leader, 50 percent said it increased the threat of terrorist acts against the United States. Seventeen percent said it decreased the threat, while 31 percent said they believed it had no effect on terrorism. On the other hand, the poll showed Americans are a little less worried about becoming victims of terrorism themselves. Thirty-three percent said they often or sometimes worry, down slightly from 37 percent last November and 40 percent in January 2010. Thirty-three percent said they are very or somewhat worried that they or a member of their family might become victims of a terrorist attack, about on par with 35 percent who said so two years ago. Three-quarters said it took too long to find the al-Qaida leader, who fled from Afghanistan’s eastern mountains into Pakistan in late 2001 under pursuit by U.S. forces and apparently had holed up in a compound in a city not far from Islamabad for the past several years. According to the U.S. government, bin Laden was shot to death by a team of Navy SEAL commandos that swept into his compound aboard helicopters May 2. Bin Laden did not have a weapon in his hands at the time he was shot but appeared to be reaching for one, U.S. officials say. In the poll, conducted May 5-9, some 86 percent said they approved of the way the U.S. military and the CIA handled the raid, in which the Pakistan government was not informed until the SEALs had left Pakistani airspace. Just 6 percent disapproved. And 87 percent considered killing bin Laden during the raid to be justified, while nine percent said U.S. forces were not justified in killing the al-Qaida leader. Asked whether the Obama administration should release a photo of bin Laden’s corpse, 64 percent said no; 34 percent felt a photo or video should be released. The day before the poll began, the Obama administration announced it would not release photos of bin Laden’s dead body. Nearly two-thirds in the poll said the government has released enough information about the raid. In the aftermath of the bin Laden killing, some have argued that information obtained through harsh interrogations during the Bush administration was important in putting the U.S. on his trail. Six in ten in the poll said the use of torture against suspected terrorists in pursuit of information about terrorism is sometimes or often justified, up from about half in an AP-GfK poll two years ago. Obama has called the elimination of bin Laden a major step forward in defeating al-Qaida, while cautioning that U.S. forces will continue pursuing other terrorist leaders and will keep a military presence in neighboring Afghanistan through 2014 to prevent that country from again becoming a haven for the organization. The president is approaching a decision on how many troops to withdraw in July as part of a planned four-year transition to Afghan government control of security across the country. On the war itself, 59 percent said they oppose it and 37 percent support it — little changed from other recent polling. But the new poll found a marked increase in public approval of Obama’s handling of the war. Sixty-five percent said they approve, compared with 55 percent in an AP-GfK survey in late March and 48 percent last November. Eight in 10 said they like Obama’s plan to begin withdrawing U.S. forces in July and to end the U.S. combat role there by the end of 2014. Fifteen percent disapprove. Nearly six in 10 called that timetable about right, while 26 percent said it was too slow. On the broader question of Obama’s handling of terrorism, 72 percent approved, compared to 61 percent in March. His gains were even more dramatic among those who said they strongly approve: 40 percent, compared to 25 percent in March. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ Robert Burns can be reached at http://twitter.com/robertburnsAP ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Osama bin Laden and terrorism was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Apr 20 Poll finds finances dictate college, career choices for students BY CONNIE CASS, The Associated Press No matter how many subjects they’re acing, most college students these days find economics a grind. Tricky financial calculations influence everything from what school they attend and what major they choose to how quickly they finish their degrees — or whether they graduate at all. Money problems, not bad grades, are the reason cited by most college students who have considered dropping out, an Associated Press-Viacom poll finds. Almost six in 10 students rely on loans to help with college costs, and nearly half who do say they’re uncomfortable with the debt. A majority of students at four-year colleges say they routinely feel at least a little worried about having enough money to make it through the week, according to the poll, conducted in partnership with Stanford University. Scrimping has long been part of the college experience, of course, but tough times in the real world mean even tighter money on campus. Recession-battered parents have less money to spend on their kids’ tuition. Jobs that used to be waiting upon graduation aren’t there anymore — consumed by the nation’s 8.8 percent unemployment rate. And college prices keep going up, as states struggle with budget deficits. Average tuition, room and board rose to about $16,000 at in-state public schools this year and $37,000 at private schools. Most college students — 84 percent — need more than one source of cash to keep up, the poll of people ages 18 to 24 found. About two-thirds say they work part-time or more to help pay for college. That’s supplemented by another popular source of funds: Mom and Dad. Six in 10 get help from parents. The same number rely on scholarships for part of the bill. “For a while, I couldn’t find a job, and it was like, ‘How am I going to eat? And how am I going to get to school if I don’t have gas?’” said Allyson Bure, 20, a nursing student who works two part-time jobs, as a clerk at a Fashion Bug store and as a hotel housekeeper. Like 57 percent of college students surveyed, Bure depends on student loans. Including debt she racked up at another school, she expects to owe about $52,000 by the time she finishes her associate’s degree at Trocaire College in East Aurora, N.Y. Then she hopes to transfer to a university. Many students are uneasy about borrowing, with good reason. The U.S. Education Department says 7 percent of borrowers default within two years of beginning repayment on loans that can stretch for a decade or more. Average student loan debt tops $23,000. Bure’s confident that she’ll earn enough to pay off her loans. She’s studying to become a nurse anesthetist, a job that can pay well over $100,000 per year. “I’ll be secure,” she predicts. Despite the rising costs, 85 percent of students and recent grads say college is worth the time and money. In overwhelming numbers, they express satisfaction with the education they’ve received. And they have wide expectations for that education: Most say it’s very or extremely important that colleges broaden students’ knowledge and expand their minds, help them gain life skills, expose them to new experiences and train them for a career. Nine out of 10 expect to find a job in their field. And for most, that’s the bottom line. Fifty-five percent say an education that focuses on success in the working world is more valuable than one focused on general knowledge and critical thinking. With that pragmatic attitude, many treat education like a commodity to be shaped to fit their needs and budgets. Most college students say cost was a big factor in determining where they applied and which school they ended up attending. A hefty majority — 86 percent — say it’s worthwhile to switch programs if you’re not getting exactly what you want from a school. A third said they added another major to increase their options after graduation. Three-fourths say it’s more important to take the time to get exactly what they want from their education than to finish within the traditional four years, and a quarter who have finished took extra time. On the other hand, lots of students are racing to the finish in order to save money. About four in 10 college students hope to graduate in less than four years. To get a jump start, 58 percent of students took college-credit courses in high school. And about half earned credits at a community college before moving on to a more expensive bachelor’s degree program. That’s what Falma Habbaba is doing. Once she’s finished two years at Cuyamaca College, she plans to transfer to nearby San Diego State University. Half of the college students surveyed, including Habbaba, hope to continue their educations beyond a four-year degree. In her case, it’s law school that beckons. Habbaba, 18, has been relying on grants and a part-time job as a restaurant hostess to pay her way, and she worries about finding enough money to finish her schooling. But she’s optimistic that she’ll achieve career happiness. So are 94 percent of the college students surveyed. For half of college students, money was a big factor in choosing what career to pursue. But more than one-fourth say that didn’t enter into their thinking at all. “If you do what you love, you’ll be all right in life,” Habbaba said. The AP-Viacom telephone survey of 1,104 adults ages 18 to 24 was conducted Feb. 18 to March 6 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Stanford University’s participation in this project was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson, AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-Viacom Survey of Youth on Education by Stanford University was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 18 to March 6. It is based on landline and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,104 adults between 18 and 24 years old. Interviews were conducted with 603 respondents on landline telephones and 501 on cellular phones. The sample included 253 African-Americans, 100 of whom were an oversample to have a sufficient number to analyze their responses as a group. Results were then weighted so that African-Americans reflected their correct proportion within the total sample. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. For the African-American sample, the portion from the core survey and the oversample were weighted to reflect the African-American 18- to 24-year-old population on Hispanic ethnicity, educational attainment, region and age within sex. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all 18- to 24-year-olds in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://surveys.ap.org. Apr 19 Poll shows students grade high school down, college up Young people give mediocre marks to America’s high schools but put great faith in its colleges. A new Associated Press-Viacom poll suggests most high schools are failing to give students a solid footing for the working world or strong guidance toward college, at a time when many students fear graduation means tumbling into an economic black hole. Most of the 18- to 24-year-olds surveyed gave high schools low grades for things that would ease the way to college: A majority say their school wasn’t good at helping them choose a field of study, aiding them in finding the right college or vocational school or assisting them in coming up with ways to pay for more schooling. Young people, however, remain enthusiastic about higher education. Two-thirds say students should aim for college, even if they aren’t sure what career to pursue. Almost as many say they want to earn at least a four-year degree. But the majority of high school students probably won’t end up with a college degree. According to the Census Bureau, only about one-third of today’s 25- to 34-year-olds hold a bachelor’s or higher degree. Less than 10 percent get an associate’s degree. Survey participants also give high schools low marks on exposing them to the latest technology in their field and helping them get work experience, according to the poll conducted in partnership with Stanford University. Learning real-life job skills is important to students such as Mary Margaret Rice, 18, who attends a regional vocational high school in Wakefield, Mass. “I’m getting training to weld,” she said. Rice is interested in joining the military, but not in more schooling after graduation. “Money is a reason,” she said, “but the main reason is I can’t really focus on classwork and homework.” Overall, only four in 10 young people voice strong satisfaction with their high school education. About as many are “somewhat satisfied.” And almost a fifth are unsatisfied — which is twice as many as those who expressed unhappiness with college. Lovina Dill said she wishes the two high schools she attended in California taught her how to deal with the ups and downs of the real world. She said she was briefly homeless when she was laid off and unable to find a job using her certification in massage therapy. Dill, now 21, self-employed and living with her father in Arcadia, La., thinks high schools should offer juniors and seniors workshops on how to get a job, how to build a career and the many educational options besides a four-year degree. The one category where young people rated high schools best was preparing them for further education: 56 percent say their school did a good or excellent job. Those who went on to college or trade school gave their high schools better marks than those who didn’t. The bulk of college students — six in 10 — declare themselves either “very” or “extremely” pleased with their higher education. Most say a career-focused college education is a high priority, and students think their schools are providing it. A strong majority of students and recent grads give their college high marks for preparing them for the workforce, helping them choose a field of study, exposing them to the latest technology and helping them get internships. Six in 10 even say their college was “excellent” or “good” at helping them find money to pay for their education. Young adults’ opinions are mixed on whether the nation’s education system understands their goals and values. Almost half of college attendees feel that the schools “get” them. That’s significantly more than among those whose education stopped at high school; just three in 10 say the school system could identify with them. Young people credit their own ambition and abilities most for their progress in life, followed by parents, family and friends. Beyond that circle, teachers are the heroes, with four in 10 students saying high school teachers helped a lot. College teachers earn similar praise. High school and college counselors are a step behind. Most students give them some credit, but less than one-fourth say their counselors were a lot of help, and about three in 10 think they didn’t help at all. Minority students were more likely than white students to say their high school counselors helped them, and they also gave their high schools better ratings for helping find money for college. Young adults overall see brighter days ahead for education. About half think kids entering elementary school today will get a better education than they did, more than double the number who predict schools will get worse. The AP-Viacom telephone survey of 1,104 adults ages 18 to 24 was conducted Feb. 18 to March 6 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Stanford University’s participation in this project was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. AP writer Stacy A. Anderson, AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-Viacom Survey of Youth on Education by Stanford University was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 18 to March 6. It is based on landline and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,104 adults between 18 and 24 years old. Interviews were conducted with 603 respondents on landline telephones and 501 on cellular phones. The sample included 253 African-Americans, 100 of whom were an oversample to have a sufficient number to analyze their responses as a group. Results were then weighted so that African-Americans reflected their correct proportion within the total sample. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. For the African-American sample, the portion from the core survey and the oversample were weighted to reflect the African American 18- to 24-year-old population on Hispanic ethnicity, educational attainment, region and age within sex. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all 18- to 24-year-olds in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://surveys.ap.org. BY CONNIE CASS, The Associated Press Apr 19 Poll shows social networks used for study, friendships BY STACY A. ANDERSON, The Associated Press Young people use social media websites such as Facebook and Twitter to do more than simply stay in touch with their friends; they’re also using them as a means to make school and career connections, according to an Associated Press-Viacom poll. Four out of five high school and college students say websites are an excellent or good way to interact with fellow students, and a bit fewer — about seven in 10 — say they’re equally good for getting information on class assignments or school events, or to form study groups and collaborate with peers. Just over half say the Internet is useful to research teacher ratings. Among students who are employed, 62 percent say social networking is helpful in interactions with co-workers. Even more, about nine in 10, say they see social networking as a tool to keep in touch with friends and family. And 74 percent say it’s a good way to distract themselves. When it comes to the impact of various media on their education, students rank the Internet on top, with 53 percent saying it has a “big effect.” Printed books followed closely at 51 percent. Television lagged at 24 percent, with newspapers, radio, movies and magazines ranking farther down. Students said laptop computers were the top item they use in the classroom for note-taking, followed by smart phones, cameras, audio recorders, tablet computers and video cameras. Apr 18 Poll shows students optimistic despite money doubts BY CONNIE CASS, The Associated Press For young people who came of age in the recession, the American dream of life getting better for each new generation feels like a myth. A majority expect to have a harder time buying a house and saving for retirement than their parents did. More than 4 in 10 predict it will be tougher to raise a family and afford the lifestyle they want, according to an Associated Press-Viacom poll of Americans ages 18 to 24. Only about a fourth expect things to be easier for them than the previous generation — a cherished goal of many hardworking parents. “I just don’t really see myself being able to obtain the kind of money my parents could when they were my age,” said Mark McNally, 23, who earned a history degree from the University of Minnesota a year ago and now works part-time in a liquor store. San Francisco State University nursing student Ashley Yates, 23, is confident she’ll build a career in health care but expects money to be tighter in her lifetime. “Social Security may not even exist when I’m older,” Yates said. “Health insurance is going up. Everything just costs more.” Sounds like a bummer, right? Yet most young adults are shrugging it off. Despite financial disappointments, they overwhelmingly say they’re happy with their lives, much more so than older folks in similar surveys. Youthful optimism — with perhaps a touch of naivete — lives on. A whopping 90 percent expect to find careers that will bring them happiness, if not wealth. Linka Preus, who’s taking a year off her career track to work in an Ithaca, N.Y., bagel bakery, figures every generation has its own struggles, and bad economies eventually improve. “Even if it never gets better permanently, we’ll adjust to whatever it is,” said Preus, 22, a linguistics and cognitive science grad from Cornell University who plans to pursue her passion for science in graduate school. McNally, the history major, said he’s enjoying life as a part-time clerk in the Minneapolis suburb of Edina before he gets tied down in a research or analyst job. “I’ll be able to find one in the future, I’m sure of it,” McNally said. “I’ll find one or go back to school.” High unemployment has left lots of young lives in limbo. Among students who don’t plan to go to work right after college, three-fourths say the limited number of open jobs in their field was important to their decision. Riding out the tough times in grad school is a popular choice for those with the means. But for some without such options, optimism is hard to muster. Nathan Watkins, out of work in rural Epworth, Ga., has little job experience, no car and no access to public transportation. “I’m literally stuck and there’s nothing I can do about it. At least I feel that way,” said Watkins, 23, a high school graduate who lives with his mother and tries to compensate her by doing chores. He’s seeking work of any type. “Honestly, at this point, I wouldn’t care. In this economy, you take what you can get.” Young people today are more pessimistic about their economic futures than young adults in a similar poll in April 2007, eight months before the recession began. And most say they cannot afford the things they want or are struggling at least a little to make their money last through each week. About half are dependent on family members for financial support. Seventy-five percent say the economy is in poor shape, on par with older people surveyed in a recent AP-GfK poll. And they’re not just worried about themselves; 7 out of 10 fret about their parents’ finances. About 20 percent saw a parent laid off during the past year and a half, according to the AP-Viacom study, conducted in partnership with Stanford University. Money troubles are steering the course of young lives. A majority say finances were a key factor in deciding whether to continue their educations past high school and, if they did, which college to attend, and what kind of career to seek. Lucas Ward couldn’t keep up with the tuition in community college, despite working three jobs at once — at a gas station, a hotel and a restaurant in scenic and touristy Hood River, Ore. With youthful pluck, he found opportunity elsewhere. Ward fell into a job doing a bit of everything for a small outdoor clothing company, and the business took off. The housing collapse that busted so many baby boomers made prices suddenly affordable, so Ward bought a home. At 23, he’s about to invest in a second house and is building his own clothing company. “A lot of stuff in the news is telling everyone that they can’t, that the economy is crumbling and there’s no room for anyone to do anything,” Ward said. “But I’m watching that being disproven every day.” The AP-Viacom telephone survey of 1,104 adults was conducted Feb. 18 through March 6 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Stanford University’s participation in this project was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. AP writer Stacy A. Anderson, AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-Viacom Survey of Youth on Education Poll by Stanford University was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 18 to March 6. It is based on landline and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,104 adults ages 18 to 24 . This included 253 African-Americans, 100 of which was an oversample. Interviews were conducted with 603 respondents on landline telephones and 501 on cell phones. Stanford University’s participation was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. For the African-American sample, the portion from the core survey and the oversample were weighted to reflect the African-American 18- to 24-year-old population on Hispanic ethnicity, educational attainment, region and age within sex. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all 18 to 24 year olds in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Apr 13 Most Americans say what they pay in taxes is fair, though fewer expecting refunds By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press For all the complaining this time of year, most Americans actually think the taxes they pay are fair. Not that they’re cheering. Fewer people expect refunds this year than in previous years, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. But as Monday’s filing deadline approaches, the poll shows that 54 percent believe their tax bills are either somewhat fair or very fair, compared with 46 percent who say they are unfair. Should taxes be raised to eat into huge federal deficits? Among the public, 62 percent say they favor cutting government services to sop up the red ink. Just 29 percent say raise taxes. That’s sure to be a major issue as Congress takes up budget legislation for next year and the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way in earnest. On Wednesday, President Barack Obama revived his proposal to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to help reduce government borrowing. In the poll, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to think their tax bills were fair. Liberals and moderates were more likely to think so than conservatives. Women more likely than men. Most whites thought their tax bills were fair; most non-whites didn’t. The young and the old — adults under 30 and seniors 65 and above — were much more likely to say their taxes were fair than those in their prime earning years. Surprisingly, there was little difference in the perception of fairness across income levels. But just because people say they pay a fair amount doesn’t mean that they think others do. Sandra Jennings, a retired teacher in South Bend, Ind., said her federal taxes are fair, but she thinks rich people get off too easily. Rich people, she said in an interview, “get all these loopholes. The middle class does not have loopholes.” Mari Lemelson of Edison, N.J., said, “I have a big problem with the millionaires, at least what I understand to be the millionaires’ tax breaks.” Jim Martel, an electrician from Weymouth, Mass., said his tax bill is already unfair, but he would be willing to pay more if he thought the money would be spent wisely. He’s not optimistic. “If I thought people in office had the right thing in mind and they were doing the right thing with the money instead of blowing it and wasting it and funding these stupid projects that are totally ridiculous, I wouldn’t have a problem with it,” Martel said. “But they don’t, so that’s what bothers me.” Monday is the filing deadline for federal tax returns — three days later than usual because a local holiday is being observed in the nation’s capital on Friday, the traditional deadline. Federal tax receipts are projected to hit their lowest level in 60 years when measured as a share of the overall economy. Tax receipts dipped during the recession and have stayed low in part because Congress has extended Bush-era tax cuts at every income level, leaving federal rates unchanged for much of the past decade. Residents in many states, however, have faced higher taxes because — unlike the federal government — states, school districts and municipalities must balance their budgets each year. The share of the public believing their tax bills were fair was nearly identical to an AP poll taken in 2007, even though fewer people than in the past said they expect to get refunds this year. Fifty-one percent of those polled said they expected refunds this year, down from 57 percent in 2009 and 66 percent in 2007. Many people who don’t expect refunds could be in for a pleasant surprise. Through March 25, about 87 percent of the individual returns processed by the Internal Revenue Service qualified for refunds. That’s about the same rate through the same period as last year. Ultimately, about 85 percent of individual returns qualified for refunds last year, totaling about $360 billion. The refunds averaged $3,000, about the same amount as so far this year. Economists say tax refunds typically provide a boost to the economy each spring. This year, however, more people say they plan to save, invest or use their refunds to pay down debts. Only 27 percent of the people surveyed said they plan to simply spend their tax refund, down from 38 percent in 2009. Forty-five percent said they would save or invest their refunds, compared with 35 percent in 2009. Forty-four percent said they would pay down debt, compared with 37 percent in 2009. “A lot of people got caught with too much debt going into this recession and may well take this as an opportunity to reduce their debt level rather than go out and rent that summer house,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “When they’re scared, they are more likely to save it than if they are happy and feel like the good times will continue forever.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP-GfK poll on taxes was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on taxes was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Apr 12 Support for Obama’s health law at new lows; Medicare chief blasts GOP on vouchers By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR, Associated Press Amid a budget debate that will affect the health care of virtually every family, a new poll finds support for President Barack Obama’s overhaul at its lowest level since passage last year. But in a ringing defense of Obama’s policies, Medicare chief Donald Berwick pleaded Tuesday for more time on the health care law, and branded a leading Republican plan “unfair and harmful” and “a form of withholding care.” The Associated Press-GfK poll showed that support for Obama’s expansion of health insurance coverage has slipped to 35 percent, while opposition stands at 45 percent and another 17 percent are neutral. That nearly ties the previous low in September 2009, when after a summer of heated town hall meetings dominated by critics, only 34 percent supported Obama’s approach. The worry this time appears to be federal budget deficits driven by unmanageable health care costs. Among seniors, whose views are critical in any debate over health care, support for the law dipped below 30 percent for the first time in AP-GfK polling. Obama is scheduled to deliver a major speech Wednesday that will lay out his path for reducing deficits. While administration officials have acknowledged the need for more savings from Medicare and Medicaid, congressional Republicans have offered a bold alternative to tackle health care costs. House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., is proposing to convert Medicare into a “premium support” program. Instead of traditional Medicare, people now 54 and younger would get a fixed payment, or voucher, from the government to buy private health insurance when they retire. Medicaid, which serves low-income people, would be turned over to the states as a block grant program. Taken together, the programs serve about 100 million Americans. Berwick, who oversees Medicare and Medicaid as well as the rollout of the new health care law, told Associated Press reporters and editors Tuesday that the Republican approach would set back efforts to improve quality and squeeze waste. It would be like “giving people a sum of money and saying, ‘Good luck, God bless you,’” Berwick said during an hour-long interview. “That’s not about improving care. That’s about shifting burdens.” Ryan says his plan will save Medicare from bankruptcy, and market competition will bring down costs without compromising quality. A pediatrician, Berwick is well-known in the medical community as an advocate for better quality. But in Washington, he has become one of the most controversial administration figures. His statements as an academic praising the British health care system brought him under suspicion from Republicans, who accused him of favoring rationing. Despite his denials, Berwick’s confirmation has been blocked in the Senate, and he may have to leave the job by the end of this year. The political uncertainty didn’t stop him from a full defense of the new health care law. He lamented that the administration has not been able to convince the public that the complex legislation will improve quality and reduce costs over time. They are in a “psychological trap, where nothing looks good,” he said. “The public’s smart. They’re going to wait for the results before they actually change their minds.” If anything, Berwick said, he wished “the tempo of the law were faster,” so that Americans could experience the benefits of coverage for virtually all residents and payment changes to reward doctors and hospitals for quality care, not the volume of tests and procedures. “We are not going to take your care away. We are going to make it better,” Berwick said. “The public will notice as we make health care better, but that takes time.” On Tuesday, the Obama administration began a national program to improve safety in hospitals, which are rife with infections and opportunities for medical mistakes. The new Partnership for Patients will help hospitals adopt proven strategies to reduce those problems dramatically, with the goal of preventing nearly 2 million patient injuries and saving more than 60,000 lives over the next three years. If it works, it could save Medicare $10 billion over that period. The poll showed the administration’s message isn’t getting through, particularly with seniors. Fifty-nine percent of seniors oppose the new health care law, while only 29 percent support it. Disapproval of Obama’s handling of health care among seniors has ticked upward to 62 percent, while Republicans are more trusted than Democrats to handle the issue, by a 51 percent to 36 percent margin. By contrast, among adults of all ages, Obama’s approval rating on health care stands at 52 percent, and 53 percent say they trust Democrats to do a better job. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ Deputy polling director Jennifer Agiesta and Associated Press writer Lauran Neergaard contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on health care was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from March 24-28. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cell phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com<http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/> . Apr 08 Few in new poll confident in US response to possible nuke crisis, but most see it as unlikely By MATTHEW DALY, Associated Press Most Americans doubt the U.S. government is prepared to respond to a nuclear emergency like the one in Japan, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. But it also shows few Americans believe such an emergency would occur. Nevertheless, the disaster has turned more Americans against new nuclear power plants. The poll found that 60 percent of Americans oppose building more nuclear power plants. That’s up from 48 percent who opposed it in an AP-Stanford University Poll in November 2009. The Associated Press-GfK poll comes as Japan continues to struggle with a nuclear crisis caused by a March 11 earthquake and tsunami. The crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant has leaked radiation into the environment and radioactive water gushed into the Pacific Ocean. Japan was rattled by a strong aftershock and tsunami warning Thursday, but officials reported no immediate sign of new problems. The poll finds that about a fourth of those surveyed were highly confident that the U.S. government is prepared to handle a nuclear emergency, while almost three-fourths were only somewhat or not confident. But many people doubt such an emergency will happen in this country. About three in 10 think such an emergency is extremely or very likely, compared with seven in 10 who think it is only somewhat or not likely. Among people who think a disaster is highly likely, almost eight in 10 lack confidence the government would be ready. Even among those think it’s not too likely or not at all likely to happen, almost two-thirds still lacked confidence the government would be ready. Nancy Hall of Long Beach, Calif., said the Japanese crisis has not soured her on nuclear power. “Well, despite the disaster in Japan, I think that nuclear power still has a lot of advantages over fossil fuels, ” she said, noting that nuclear energy, unlike oil, does not funnel money to “Middle East dictators” and is not as polluting as coal-fired power plants. “You have to keep in mind that gas and coal are constantly polluting, day in and day out, and we don’t even think about it,” she said. Hall, 36, a linguistics professor, lives within a four-hour drive of two nuclear plants but said she is not too worried about either one. “I do hope the government is looking carefully at how to safeguard them,” she said. “But truthfully, nuclear power is not at the top of my list of worries.” Of more immediate concern: The building where she works is not earthquake-proof. The poll indicates that nearly one in four Americans lives within 50 miles of a nuclear power reactor. Those who reported living within 50 miles of a nuclear plant were not significantly more or less likely to have confidence in the government’s ability to handle a nuclear disaster. Those who live close to nuclear power plants were less likely to be strong opponents of building more nuclear power plants than those who live farther away. A total of four in 10 of those who live more than 50 miles from a plant strongly oppose building new ones, compared with three in 10 who say they live within 50 miles of a plant. U.S. government regulators are reviewing safety at the nation’s 104 nuclear reactors in the wake of the Japanese crisis. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission says it will look at the plants’ ability to protect against natural disasters and terrorist attacks, respond to complete power blackouts and cope with accidents involving spent fuel, among other issues. The NRC says U.S. nuclear plants continue to operate safely. Still, Kelli Hughes of Brookhaven, N.Y., worries about nuclear power, calling it a toxic menace. Hughes, 33, owns an online business and lives less than 80 miles from nuclear plants in New York and Connecticut. She said she strongly opposes construction or expansion of nuclear plants. “We have to think about what it’s going to do to the environment when we’re done with it,” she said, referring to nuclear waste. “Look what’s happening in Japan now,” she added. Radioactive waste “is leaking and it’s toxic.” Once land is tainted by nuclear waste, “you can’t use it,” Hughes said. “It kills everything — the land, the air, the water around it.” Damian Padua of Chicopee, Mass., said he is skeptical that renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power can generate the electricity the country needs. Padua, 32, a printer, said the U.S. government and citizens alike are likely to be overwhelmed in the event of a nuclear disaster. But after the initial shock, he said he is confident authorities and the public would rally. “I think we have the necessary resources to help everyone,” he said. “I think we can do a better job than the way it’s going in Japan actually.” The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on nuclear power was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Apr 05 Obliquely or overtly, gas is underlying issue linking Libya, Japan, Wall Street, angry America By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Quick: What do these things have in common? Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Wall Street volatility. A cranky, even angry American populace. Answer: They all have something to do with gasoline. No matter what happens in the world today, just about everything points back to fuel and the tricky politics that emerge when prices spike. Is it any wonder, then, that a recent Associated Press-GfK poll shows a correlation between the country’s more pessimistic outlook and rising gas prices. The issue also has taken on greater importance to Americans. They rank it above subjects including Iraq, Afghanistan, immigration, terrorism and taxes. Last fall, 54 percent called gas prices a highly important issue to them personally, but 77 percent said that in the latest poll. Many don’t expect relief from soaring gas costs anytime soon: Two-thirds say they expect the higher prices will cause financial hardship for them or their families in the next six months. That group includes more than a third who say gas cost spikes will cause serious financial hardship. And that is on top of a still-poor economy. Most are changing the way they live. Three-fourths are cutting back on other expenses, two-thirds are driving less, half plan to vacation closer to home, and almost as many have thought seriously about buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Most also are bypassing the most convenient gas station to bargain shop for the lowest prices. GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications conducted the poll from March 24-28. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The underlying links between current events aren’t lost on President Barack Obama, and for good reason. Like death and taxes, this cycle is a certainty: Prices at the pump rise, the public’s mood falls and the president gets punished. Listen to him when he pressed recently for reducing the nation’s oil imports by one-third by 2025. “Obviously, the situation in the Middle East implicates our energy security. The situation in Japan leads us to ask questions about our energy sources. In an economy that relies so heavily on oil, rising prices at the pump affect everybody,” Obama said. “Businesses see rising prices at the pump hurt their bottom line. Families feel the pinch when they fill up their tank. And for Americans that are already struggling to get by, a hike in gas prices really makes their lives that much harder. It hurts.” Sure, that’s true. But there’s also much more to it. In an era in which globalization is a given, gas prices are the most obvious, most closely felt connection between the daily lives of Americans and the larger world. “Whenever gasoline prices spike, there is enormous political consternation because it’s a highly invasive issue,” said Pietro Nivola, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies energy policy and American politics. Has there been a time in modern history when that’s been more apparent than the past few weeks? Look at what’s happened. —Populist uprisings swept across oil-rich North Africa, from Tunisia to Egypt and now to Libya, where rebels are in a standoff with Gadhafi that has shut down much of the country’s 1.6 million barrels a day of crude exports. Energy traders fear unrest will spread further across the region and disrupt shipments from bigger producers like Saudi Arabia and Iran. That could limit supply when demand is high, boosting costs. —An earthquake and tsunami in Japan last month triggered a nuclear emergency, with the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant leaking radiation. The reactor’s near meltdown has renewed debate in the United States over nuclear fuel and raised questions about the vulnerability of some U.S. plants. —Oil surged to a 30-month high — more than $100 a barrel — as investors worried that the unrest in Libya and elsewhere would keep crude exports from oil-producing nations off the market longer than expected. On Wall Street, key indexes fluctuated as oil prices soared. —Consumer confidence dropped at a troublesome time, just as the post-recession economy was struggling to recover. Gas costs were the reason. Experts say if people are forced to pay more for gasoline, they’re likely not to spend elsewhere and that could further slow already sluggish economic growth. And none of that even takes into account last year’s Gulf Coast oil spill. Even if there’s no proven cause and effect between the latest turn of events, there’s a commonality that’s not lost on experts and consumers alike. “It’s a combination of trends and luck that have put energy repeatedly at the forefront,” said Michael Levi, director of the program on energy security and climate change at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We always are going to be dealing with energy in some form or another because it’s the lifeblood of society.” The poll also indicated a disconnect between expectations and reality. Consumers on average said $2.36 per gallon was a fair price for gas, but the national average was $3.65 during the week the survey was taken. Albert Mercado, a restaurant employee from Wallingford, Pa., is among those feeling more than just a pinch. “When I swipe my card at the gas pump, it stops at $75 and I’m nowhere near full,” says the owner of a 2004 Ford Explorer, who lives outside Philadelphia. He adds: “I have not been driving as much.” He now limits his travels to and from work, his son’s day care and their home. He saves rather than spends. He hasn’t visited his parents, who live a three-hour drive away in New York, for a long time. And Mercado, 44, has little hope that costs will fall anytime soon. After all, he says, he once worked at a gas station and knows how the price game is played. “Something’s got to change. I doubt it will,” he said. So far, Obama’s overall political standing isn’t suffering; it’s held steady for months at about 50 percent. Even so, his job performance rating on handling the issue of gas prices is at just 36 percent, his lowest rating on any issue tracked in the poll. “What’s different this time is the U.S. economy is still fragile,” Nivola said. “If we had a sustained gasoline hike, it would be like imposing a substantial tax on the economy at a very inopportune moment.” Eventually, consumers will look for someone to fault if gas prices remain high. Obama’s the likely target, and Republicans are trying to hasten the blame game. “His war on domestic oil and gas exploration and production has caused us pain at the pump, endangered our already sluggish economic recovery, and threatened our national security,” said Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate who is considering a White House run of her own. “The good news is there is nothing wrong with America’s energy policy that another good old-fashioned election can’t solve. 2012 is just around the corner.” History, however, offers no certainty that a different president would dramatically change how Americans deal with energy. For decades, a national energy policy has proven elusive because Republicans and Democrats sharply differ over how to make America closer to energy independent. Progress has been impeded by not-in-my-backyard fights over nuclear plants and wind farms, battles over drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and nuclear waste disposal at Yucca Mountain, and election-year sloganeering. The same cycle has persisted. Gas prices rise, Americans complain and politicians raise alarms. Consider the words that came out of one president’s mouth: “This country needs to regain its independence from foreign sources of energy, and the sooner the better.” That was Republican Gerald Ford — in 1975. Nearly four decades later, Obama said: “As long as our economy depends on foreign oil, we’ll always be subject to price spikes.” He’s probably not the last president who will give voice to that notion, given the complexities of the issue. As Levi puts it: “The nature of energy is that it matters because it gets entangled with so many other things. But those other entanglements are what make it precisely so difficult to deal with.” ___ EDITOR’S NOTE — Liz Sidoti has covered national politics for The Associated Press since 2003. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By The Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on gas prices was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Mar 30 Lawmakers press Obama administration for answers on US mission in Libya By DONNA CASSATA President Barack Obama is under pressure from Congress to spell out an exit strategy for the U.S. military in Libya and provide a clear plan to end Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s 42-year rule as the American public remains fiercely divided over the war. Obama delivered a full-throated defense of his decision to deploy military forces to prevent a slaughter of Libyan civilians in his speech Monday and in the shadow of the United Nations on Tuesday. The president said the nation’s conscience and its common interests “compel us to act” to protect civilian lives in Libya. “We’ve learned from bitter experience — from the wars that were not prevented, the innocent lives that were not saved — is that all that’s necessary for evil to triumph is that good people and responsible nations stand by and do nothing,” the president said at the dedication of the Ronald H. Brown mission at the U.N. In a series of network interviews, Obama insisted that the “noose is tightening” around Gadhafi although forces loyal to the longtime leader pounded the rebels with tanks and rockets Wednesday, forcing them to retreat. The president did not rule out arming the rebels, saying the U.S. and its partners could get weapons into Libya and all options were being considered. In the course of his statements, however, Obama created more questions among lawmakers when he said ousting Gadhafi militarily would be a mistake and a diplomatic approach would be a better option. “We hope Gadhafi leaves. I just don’t think that that is a strategy,” House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Tuesday. “When you listen to what’s going on and all the words, it is really nothing more than hope. So if Gadhafi doesn’t leave, how long will NATO be there to enforce the no-fly zone?” On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen are certain to face tough questions when they brief members of the House and Senate in closed-door, back-to-back sessions. Their Capitol Hill appearance comes as a new Associated Press-GfK poll found the country split on U.S. involvement in military actions in Libya, with 48 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving. About three-quarters say it’s somewhat likely that U.S. forces will be involved in Libya for the long term. Fifty-five percent say they would favor the United States increasing its military action to remove Gadhafi from power, although only 13 percent favor U.S. ground troops, a step Obama has said he would not take. The poll was conducted in the days leading up to the president’s speech. Reflecting the nation’s divisions, several lawmakers praised Obama’s actions while others raised a series of looming questions about the U.S. mission. Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Obama’s 2008 rival for the presidency, said he appreciated the president’s explanation of “why this intervention was both right and necessary, especially in light of the unprecedented democratic awakening that is now sweeping the broader Middle East.” McCain said Obama deserves strong bipartisan support in Congress and in the country on Libya. But Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon, R-Calif., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said Obama needs to further refine U.S. purposes. “I still did not hear a clearly defined goal for how long military operations will last in Libya,” McKeon said. “Utilizing U.S. warriors to protect civilians from a brutal dictator is a noble cause, but asking them to maintain a stalemate while we hold out hope that Gadhafi will voluntarily leave his country raises serious questions about the duration of the mission.” Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio sought congressional support Tuesday for his effort to cut off funds for the operation. Under questioning by Congress, NATO’s top commander, U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis, said officials had seen “flickers” of possible al-Qaida and Hezbollah involvement with the rebel forces. But Stavridis said there was no evidence of significant numbers within the political opposition group’s leadership. “The intelligence that I’m receiving at this point makes me feel that the leadership that I’m seeing are responsible men and women who are struggling against Colonel Gadhafi,” Stavridis told a Senate panel. “We have seen flickers in the intelligence of potential al-Qaida, Hezbollah. … At this point, I don’t have detail sufficient to say that there’s a significant al-Qaida presence or any other terrorist presence in and among these folks.” Obama, in an interview with CBS News, said most of the opposition leaders are professionals such as lawyers and doctors, but “that doesn’t mean that all the people — among all the people who opposed Gadhafi — there might not be elements that are unfriendly to the United States and our interests.” Clinton met in London with Mahmoud Jibril, a representative of the Libyan political opposition. The Obama administration is not ruling out a political solution in Libya that could include Gadhafi leaving the country, she said, but she acknowledged there is no timeline. In the military campaign, a U.S. Navy ship fired 22 Tomahawk cruise missiles at weapon storage sites around Tripoli on Tuesday, according to a U.S. defense official. It was the highest number of Tomahawks fired in several days, even as the Navy has reduced the number of missile-firing ships and submarines off the coast. The Libyan missiles in the storage sites targeted by the U.S. onslaught could have been used by pro-Gadhafi forces defending Tripoli, should heavy combat spread to the capital, which remains under Gadhafi’s control. The rebels are outmatched in training, equipment and other measures of military might by Gadhafi’s remaining forces, and would be hard-pressed to mount a full-scale battle for Tripoli now. As for the overall international campaign against Gadhafi, Stavridis said he expected a three-star Canadian general to assume full NATO command of the operation by Thursday. Meanwhile, the Pentagon put the price tag for the war thus far at $550 million. ____ Associated Press writers Robert Burns and Bradley Klapper contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the situation in Libya was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28, 2011. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Mar 30 Americans turn more pessimistic on economy but aren’t taking it out on Obama By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer For all the talk of recovery, Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy as soaring gas costs strain already-tight budgets. So far, people aren’t taking it out on President Barack Obama, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. Even so, the survey highlights a central challenge Obama will face in his campaign for re-election. The president will have to convince a lot of voters who are still feeling financial hardship that things are getting better. Obama’s approval ratings have held steady at around 50 percent over the past month. But the disconnect between negative perceptions of the economy and signs that a rebound are under way could provide an opening for Republicans at the outset of the 2012 campaign. In the survey, just a sliver of Americans — 15 percent — said they believed the economy had improved over the past month, compared with 30 percent who had thought that in January. Only a third were optimistic of better times ahead for the country, down from about half earlier this year. And 28 percent thought the economy would get worse, the largest of slice of people who have expressed that sentiment since the question was first asked in December 2009. “It’s in a poor state,” said Billy Shirley, 74, a Democrat from Commerce, Ga. “Everything’s going to the bad. Everyone’s spending more on gas, food, everything. The prices on everything are going up, and that’s hurting the nation.” Recent economic indicators paint a more positive picture: The unemployment rate, though still high at 8.9 percent, has been declining, and consumer spending and personal income were both up last month. The gross domestic product was growing at an annual rate of 3.1 percent as last year ended. Americans are acutely focused on their financial well-being, even as turmoil in the Middle East commands international attention. And the foreign unrest is directly affecting them by boosting oil prices. More Americans — 77 percent, up from 54 percent last fall — now say gas prices are highly important to them. Obama’s job-performance ratings haven’t suffered as people’s attitudes about the economy have shifted over the past month. Half still approve of how he’s doing his job, and half say he deserves to be re-elected. His rating on handling the economy was unchanged: 47 percent approved. In fact, twice as many people said Obama “understands the important issues the country will need to focus on during the next two years” as said that about Republicans in Congress. That’s not to say that Obama is escaping responsibility for the economic situation. Annale Iltis, 26, of Sarasota, Fla., faults big business, the federal government and, to a lesser extent, the president. “I do a bit,” she said, “but at the same time he has good ideas. He just doesn’t have the backers in the House and the Senate to get them done.” The self-described independent voter, who supported Obama in 2008 and says she would do so next year, is concerned that deep budget cuts that Congress is considering will hurt the fragile economic recovery. “It seems stable now but I fear it’s going to go downhill quickly,” she said. Henry Kugeler, 49, of Chicago, likened the situation to the fable about the crawling tortoise that wins the race against the speedy hare, saying: “Right now, the country is the tortoise. I don’t think the economy is getting worse. The recovery that’s happening is real, but it’s incredibly slow.” The Democrat doesn’t blame Obama or other politicians, saying: “They haven’t helped but I don’t know that they’ve hurt.” Obama inherited an economy in recession. Republicans angling for the chance to challenge him next fall have been blaming him for the slow recovery and arguing they could do better. Presidential advisers are hopeful that the positive economic trends continue, giving Obama an opportunity to make the case for keeping him in office rather than risk an economic backslide. As the slow-to-start GOP nomination fight starts in earnest this spring, the poll shows that candidates clearly have work to do. More than or nearly half of Republicans surveyed say they don’t know enough about the following potential contenders to even express an opinion about them: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. Roughly two-thirds of Republicans expressed favorable views of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney got slightly lower marks. Even though many of the candidates aren’t well-known, about half of Republicans say they are satisfied with their choices. The poll comes just as Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill wrestle over the federal budget, and there could be a partial government shutdown without further action by Congress. The Republican-controlled House has approved some $60 billion in spending cuts. The Democratic Senate is looking at $33 billion. Without agreement, some Republicans say they won’t approve funding to keep the government operating. The issue of federal spending isn’t just something lawmakers talk about. It’s clearly weighing on the public. Roughly half in the survey said they expected enormous federal budget deficits to cause a major economic crisis for the country for the next decade, and most said they worry that mounting federal debt will hamper the financial future of their children and grandchildren. In the shorter term, people in the poll view everyone negatively when it comes to handling the deficit, but lawmakers get worse marks than the president. Only about a third of those surveyed approve of how Republicans and Democrats are dealing with the issue, while 41 percent approve of Obama on the matter. People also are evenly divided on which party would best handle the deficit. The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com ___ Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report. How the poll was conducted By the Associated Press The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28, 2011. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . Jan 24 Jobs, debt and, yes, health care still, top an American to-do list on eve of Obama speech By CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press Health care is Shannon Taylor’s “big, big hot button” and no wonder. She is a nurse in Tennessee who examines hospital bills for a health insurance company, and a mother who saw President Barack Obama’s health care law come just in time for her family. In the State of the Union speech Tuesday night, she will be looking for Obama to stand firm against Republicans who want to take the law apart. Health insurance for her daughter, who has lifetime medical problems, could hang in the balance. Many other Americans feel a personal stake in what Obama will say Tuesday and do later _ and what Republicans do in response. The hunger for jobs and economic growth stood out in interviews with more than 1,000 people, part of an Associated Press-GfK poll asking Americans what one thing they most want the government to accomplish this year. It is apparent, too, that health care is still very much on people’s minds, that spending has reached frightening proportions for many and that a notable share of Americans wants nothing more than to see partisan bickering end. In upstate New York, Donald Dixon puts his faith in Republicans to restrain Democratic spending and bring down a debt that he believes makes every economic problem worse _ and robs his grandsons, each with a master’s degree, of good jobs. It’s enough to make the retired Baptist preacher invoke the fire and brimstone rhetoric of the pulpit, even as he renders his judgment in a cheerful tone. Obama “tells us we are going in the right direction,” Dixon says, “which to me is over the precipice of hell.” It falls upon presidents to describe the state of the union when much of that union is in the depths of winter’s gloom. The polling revealed a season of discontent; also some stirrings of hope. More than half disapproved of Obama’s handling of the economy and just more than one-third said it has improved in his first two years. Still, he’s considered likable, strong and in touch. Altogether, 38 percent cited the economy or an economic issue when asked what they would most like to see the government accomplish this year. Fully 31 percent said health care is the No. 1 issue to tackle _ regardless of whether they favor or oppose the law _ and 21 percent cited the budget. Among economic concerns, jobs topped the list. ¶ Dixon believes the debt already weighs on job creation and economic growth and it will take a decade to turn that around. The Republicans, he says, are off to a good start on that front. ¶ His grandsons have master’s degrees in education and business, and neither is able to get a job in his discipline. The one with the MBA lives with relatives and recently welcomed a baby. “He’s been painting houses,” Dixon, 74, said from Little Falls, N.Y. “Wintertime up here, you don’t do much painting.” ¶ Debt is also a concern of those young enough to inherit its growing weight down the road. It’s what Eric Tolbert, 19, a Purdue University student from West Lafayette, Ind., most wants the government to fix. “I think it will be all talk at first,” he says of the promises to cut spending. “But we may see more progress in a year or two.” ¶ Says James Lenoir, 41, an Aberdeen, Miss., car salesman: “The economy is in a bad fix. Job creation is one of the most important things the country needs. There has been progress but not enough, fast enough.” ¶ Can the parties work together? Lenoir glumly predicts not. “On most issues, it’s going to be gridlock.” ¶ Health care plays out in public opinion in ways as complicated as the law itself. Angie Wyatt, 46, an Alexandria, Ky., middle school teacher and mother of six, calls for the law to be repealed because “I don’t like government control.” But she does like one of its principal elements: the government’s prohibition on denying health insurance to people who have been sick. ¶ In Chattanooga, Taylor, the 46-year-old nurse, says she is well aware of abuses in the medical system, as one who pores over itemized hospital bills to be paid by the health insurer she works for. And she figures Obama’s law may not be good for health insurers. ¶ She’s willing to take that chance. ¶ “I’ve seen the system abusers, but those are the people you hear about,” she says. “You don’t hear about the old ladies who are buying four pills at a time at Walmart because that’s all they can afford.” ¶ Taylor’s daughter, 22, has celiac disease, an autoimmune intestinal disorder that has required expensive treatments and will follow her through life. ¶ “She was just about to age out of my insurance coverage,” Taylor said. “We were starting to get on the panicky side. Without insurance, we would be bankrupt.” Her husband, disabled in a car accident, is helped with medical bills by Medicare. ¶ Now, the health care law entitles children to stay on their parents’ plans until they turn 26, three years longer than before and without the condition that they be full-time students. ¶ And by 2014, insurers will need to accept all applicants regardless of medical history. Insurers will also be prohibited from charging higher premiums to those in poor health. ¶ ”If the House will quit being silly and trying to overturn it,” she says of the law, “there will be something there for her.” ¶ Employment was the top single issue identified by those interviewed, mentioned by 23 percent. Only two other individual issues topped 10 percent: fixing or reforming health care at 15 percent, and fixing the economy at 14 percent. ¶ Six percent set aside material worries to say they want bipartisan cooperation above all else. ¶ The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 5-10 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ¶ ___ ¶ AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Will Lester contributed to this report. ¶ ___ ¶ Online: ¶ http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com ¶ ___ ¶ Online: ¶ http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted ¶ The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. ¶ Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. ¶ As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use _ landline only, cell only and both types _ by region. ¶ No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. ¶ There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. ¶ The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Jan 21 Nation gives Obama high marks on personality, lower marks on economic progress By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer Thumbs up for President Barack Obama’s personality. Thumbs down for his progress. An overwhelming majority of Americans like Obama, but most say he hasn’t accomplished much on two top goals — fixing the sluggish economy and changing how Washington works, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll midway through the first term of his presidency. Half of those surveyed say he deserves a second term, and independents, whose support will be critical in 2012, are evenly divided on that question. Obama is getting the benefit of the doubt despite concerns about his policies, a reflection based in large part on his likability. “He’s doing a pretty good job,” says Alan Bliven, 54, of Tucson, Ariz. “I’m not all sold on him,” but the president’s performance is good enough that he should be re-elected. Joanne Abbott, 46, of Sebring, Fla., disagrees. “I don’t dislike Obama. I like him as a person,” she says, but adds, “I don’t think he’s accomplished much. … I wish the economy would come back.” The AP-GfK poll is a snapshot in time, and plenty could happen between now and November 2012, including an economic upturn that could cut the 9.4 percent unemployment rate. But, in a polarized nation, the findings portend a competitive presidential race no matter who the GOP candidate is. Although beating an incumbent is tough, Republicans sense an opening, given the sluggish economic recovery and Obama’s acknowledged failure to fulfill his promise of doing business differently in a partisan Washington. Overall, 53 percent of Americans approve of how Obama is governing, putting him roughly in the middle when compared with his modern-day successors halfway through their first terms. Almost as many people rate Obama’s presidency below average (34 percent) as call it above average (38 percent). Forty-one percent overall — and 30 percent among independents — say he understands the important issues the nation will face the next two years. Only 26 percent say he’s kept most of his campaign promises. Americans diverge over whether Obama’s prescriptions are best. “He’s too much of a socialist, he wants too big of a government, and he shouldn’t get re-elected,” said 72-year-old Tom Wilkinson of Sparland, Ill. “I’m sick and tired of Chicago politics, and I think that’s where he comes out of.” Art Winstanley, 58, of Key West, Fla., says Obama deserves more time. “Some things he’s done are taking time to kick in with the public. He’s got two years before people go ‘Holy smoke, this guy did a lot of good stuff!’” Despite his lukewarm policy marks, Obama has an enormous advantage because of how people see him personally; a whopping 83 percent call him likable, and 59 percent view him favorably. Majorities also consider him empathetic (63 percent), a strong leader (62 percent), and in-touch with ordinary Americans (61 percent). The numbers are similar to the ones President Ronald Reagan faced before winning a second term in 1984. Still, the AP-GfK poll shows areas of vulnerability as Obama governs and campaigns: —More than half disapprove of how he’s handled the economy. Just 35 percent say it’s improved on his watch; 40 percent said that a year ago. It’s driven largely by lower-income people as well as those in the Northeast and the West who are losing faith in Obama’s ability to orchestrate a turnaround. Three-quarters do say it’s unrealistic to expect noticeable improvements after two years; they say it will take longer. —Roughly a third — 34 percent — say Obama hasn’t lived up to his promise of change, an increase from 27 percent last January. More Democrats argue he’s kept that pledge, while more Republicans say he’s broken it. Overall, 42 percent say it’s too soon to tell. People are split over his pace of change: 36 percent say too much, too quickly, 32 percent say it’s about right, 31 percent say he’s not moving fast enough. More independents want to see Obama move quicker than not. —Fifty-one percent of independents approve of his job performance, an uptick since November as Obama reached out to Republicans — and compromised with them on taxes — in a new era of divided government. But just 30 percent score his presidency above average or better, a slippage from 37 percent a year ago. And independents divide about evenly on whether he deserves to be re-elected: 46 percent say yes, 43 percent no. He still has trouble with support among men and whites; they are more apt than women and nonwhites to want him fired. —Despite vocal complaints from the left, the poll shows evidence that Obama’s base isn’t nearly as fractured as it has seemed. Democrats overwhelmingly give him high marks. Liberal Democrats are more likely to call Obama’s presidency outstanding or above average than even moderate Democrats. And there’s no difference between the two groups over whether Obama should face a primary challenge; majorities of both groups say no. It’s largely a moot point as no serious challenger has emerged. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 5-10 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ Associated Press Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Associated Press writer Philip Elliott contributed to this report. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com Jan 16 Raw emotions ease over Obama’s health care overhaul; 1 in 4 back complete repeal By JENNIFER AGIESTA and RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR As lawmakers shaken by the shooting of a colleague return to the health care debate, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds raw feelings over President Barack Obama’s overhaul have subsided. Ahead of a vote on repeal in the GOP-led House this week, strong opposition to the law stands at 30 percent, close to the lowest level registered in AP-GfK surveys dating to September 2009. The nation is divided over the law, but the strength and intensity of the opposition appear diminished. The law expands coverage to more than 30 million uninsured, and would require, for the first time, that most people in the United States carry health insurance. The poll finds that 40 percent of those surveyed said they support the law, while 41 percent oppose it. Just after the November congressional elections, opposition stood at 47 percent and support was 38 percent. As for repeal, only about one in four say they want to do away with the law completely. Among Republicans support for repeal has dropped sharply, from 61 percent after the elections to 49 percent now. Also, 43 percent say they want the law changed so it does more to re-engineer the health care system. Fewer than one in five say it should be left as it is. “Overall, it didn’t go as far as I would have liked,” said Joshua Smith, 46, a sales consultant to manufacturers who lives in Herndon, Va. “In a perfect world, I’d like to see them change it to make it more encompassing, but judging by how hard it was to get it passed, they had to take whatever they could get.” His extended family has benefited from the law. A sister-in-law in her early 20s, previously uninsured, was able to get on her father’s policy. “She’s starting out as a real estate agent, and there’s no health care for that,” said Smith. The law allows young adults to stay on a parent’s plan until they turn 26. Congress stepped back last week to honor victims of the rampage in Tucson, Ariz., that left Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., facing a long and uncertain recovery from a bullet through her brain. There’s no evidence the gunman who targeted Giffords was motivated by politics, but the aftermath left many people concerned about the venom in public life. A conservative Democrat, Giffords had been harshly criticized for voting in favor of the health overhaul, and won re-election by a narrow margin. House Republican leaders say they’re working to keep this week’s debate — and expected vote Wednesday — from degenerating into a shouting match, but it depends on the Democrats, too. Republicans want a thoughtful discussion about substantive policy differences, said Brad Dayspring, a spokesman for Rep. Eric Cantor, the No. 2 GOP leader. The AP-GfK poll was under way when the attack in Tucson took place Jan. 8. Opposition to the law remains strongest among Republicans. Seventy-one percent of them say they’re against it, as compared with 35 percent of independents and 19 percent of Democrats. Republicans won back control of the House partly on a promise to repeal what they dismissively term as “Obamacare.” “I just think that the liberal left is more going for socialized medicine, and I don’t think that works well,” said Earl Ray Fye, 66, a farmer from Pennsylvania Furnace, Pa., and a conservative Republican. “It just costs too much. This country better get concerned about getting more conservative.” One of the major Republican criticisms of the law found wide acceptance in the poll, suggesting a vulnerability that GOP politicians can continue to press. Nearly six in 10 oppose the law’s requirement that people carry health insurance except in cases of financial hardship. Starting in 2014, people will have to show that they’re covered either through an employer, a government program, or under their own plan. Rich Johnson, 34, an unemployed laborer from Caledonia, Wis., said he thinks the heart of the law is good. “The problem I have with it is mandating insurance so that you have to have it or you’ll get fines,” said Johnson, an independent. “I just don’t think people should be forced to have it. The rest of it, I have no problem with.” The individual mandate started out as a Republican idea during an earlier health care debate in the 1990s. More recently, Massachusetts enacted such a requirement under GOP Gov. Mitt Romney and the Democratic Legislature. Nowadays, most conservatives are against it, and GOP state attorneys general are suing to have the mandate overturned as unconstitutional. Other major provisions of the law, including a requirement that insurers accept people with pre-existing medical conditions, got support from half or more of the public in the poll. Loralyn Conover, 42 a former music teacher with multiple sclerosis, says she hopes repeal goes nowhere. Senate Democrats say they’ll block it. The new law “opens the door for people like me to have some kind of pay-as-you-go health insurance,” said Conover, of Albuquerque, N.M. “It’s nice to be able to have something . and not be dropped in the cracks of society.” She couldn’t get health insurance when she was first diagnosed, but is now covered by Medicare. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 5-10 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ____ Associated Press writers Douglass Daniel, Bradley Klapper and Michele Salcedo contributed to this report. ____ Online: Poll questions and results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the AP health care poll was conducted WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the health care bill was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10, 2011. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education, and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Jan 14 Japanese distrust leaders after disasters; majority favor reducing nuclear plants By MALCOM FOSTER, Associated Press TOKYO (AP) — This year’s tsunami and nuclear disasters have severely shaken the Japanese public’s confidence in their government, and many are pessimistic about the country’s future, an Associated Press-GfK poll has found. The results released Thursday also show that Japanese generally distrust their leaders and that nearly 60 percent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction — a sobering welcome for Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, elected this week. Five months after the triple catastrophes — the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident — nearly three-quarters of the people lack confidence in the government’s ability to handle another major disaster. Eighty percent felt deeply that leaders were not telling them the truth about the crises, and a slight majority want to reduce the number of nuclear reactors in the nation. Overall, Japanese are gloomy about the state of their country, currently and in the future. Nearly two-thirds believe Japan is a weaker international power than it was 10 years ago, and a startling 84 percent of respondents believe the economy, overtaken by China’s to slide to third globally, is in poor shape. Some 44 percent believe children born today will be worse off when they grow up than people are now. That pessimism reflects the complex mix of problems and attitudes confronting Noda as he replaces Naoto Kan, whose 15-month tenure ended amid widespread criticism of his administration’s handling of the disasters. Some 100,000 residents from around the damaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant remain dislocated with no clear idea when they will be able to return to their homes. Residents in the scores of towns and villages along the tsunami-wracked northeastern coast are still cleaning up and fault the central government for being preoccupied with the nuclear crisis. Tokyo Electric Power Co., owner of the plant, received a harsh assessment, with 8 in 10 people disapproving of its response to the disaster, while Kan and the nuclear safety agency got thumbs down from three-quarters of respondents. However, the Japanese military, which mobilized quickly in relief work after the tsunami, got positive reviews from 9 out of 10 people, the AP-GfK poll found. Since the March 11 disasters, some 82 percent doubted the government’s ability to help them in the event of such an emergency — cited as a deep feeling by 82 percent. Three quarters reported feeling generally less safe than before March 11, and two-thirds were angry that relief was slow in reaching victims. Americans’ emotions following Hurricane Katrina and the flooding of New Orleans were less intense and focused more on anger (67 percent reporting this as a deep feeling) than fears for their personal safety, cited by 30 percent, or doubts about the government’s ability to help them in a disaster (44 percent). The widespread disappointment reflected in the poll is “sad, but it shows that people are looking at things honestly” and that they believe the response to the disasters “has been unsatisfactory,” said Tetsuro Kato, a political science professor at Waseda University. “The disasters could have been used to chart a new direction” for Japan and its leaders, “but that didn’t happen,” Kato said. “It was a missed opportunity.” “Some probably want to scream,” Kato said. The Fukushima accident has triggered debate in Japan about the future role of nuclear power in this earthquake-prone nation, which got 30 percent of its electricity from atomic power plants before the accident. The government has since scrapped its plan to boost that level to 50 percent by 2030. The poll found that few in Japan have confidence in the nation’s nuclear power plants — only 5 percent were either extremely or very confident, while 60 percent had little or no confidence. A slight majority, 55 percent, want to reduce the number of atomic power plants, while 35 percent would like to leave the number about the same. Four percent want an increase while 3 percent want to eliminate them entirely. Overall, 59 percent felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, while 63 percent believe Japan’s international power is weaker than 10 years ago. “From abroad, Japan appears to be turning inward,” said Kato, who was in the U.S. last week. He also bemoaned the lack of robust debate about the nuclear crisis in the brief campaign among candidates who fought to replace Kan — a race Noda won. Still, on a personal level a majority of Japanese, or 56 percent, say they are happy with the way things are going in their lives. Just 11 percent consider themselves mostly unhappy, while a third are neither happy or unhappy. More women say they are happy than men (65 percent versus 47 percent). Married people also say they are happier than singles (60 percent versus 47 percent). The AP-GfK telephone poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications surveyed 1,000 adults across Japan between July 29 and Aug. 10, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Recovery from the quake and tsunami is clearly viewed as the top priority for the nation, cited as the most important goal Japan over the next 10 years by nearly all surveyed. Nine in 10 said recovering from events of March 11 was the most serious problem facing the country. The aging population was viewed as the second most serious problem, cited by 78 percent as either very or extremely serious. Third was the lack of a stable government, cited by nearly three-quarters — highlighted by Noda’s recent appointment as the sixth prime minister in five years. But respondents were divided over whether they favored a fixed four-year term for the prime minister, similar to the U.S. president. Thirty percent favored such a change, while 31 percent opposed it, and 38 percent took neither stance. No branch of the government has the trust of a majority to do the right thing most of the time. Sixty-five percent trust the parliament to do so less than half the time, and 59 percent hold that view of the Cabinet. Also, a whopping 85 percent say elected officials are more interested in serving special interests than the people they represent. On the economic front, 70 percent said conditions are worse today than five years ago, and about a third predicted that they would be worse five years from now — although 42 percent believed they would be about the same. As in the U.S., the Japanese rate their own personal finances more highly than the nation’s economy. Still, just 19 percent rate their finances as excellent or in good shape, 53 percent say they are fair and 28 percent say they are poor. About a third say their family’s financial health has declined in the last five years, 13 percent think it’s gotten better and 52 percent say it’s held steady. ____ On the Web: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the attitudes and opinions of Japanese was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from July 29 to Aug. 10. It is based on landline telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. The survey sample frame includes Japanese households that have at least one fixed telephone landline, or about 91 percent of all Japanese households, and represents the national population of Japan age 18 and older living in the 47 prefectures (states). Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed numbers. The sample was stratified by region with targets set for the number of complete calls per region. Interviews were conducted in Japanese by live interviewers in a Tokyo-based telephone interviewing center. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s composition. That included Japan’s mix by age within sex, city or region, and by education. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.8 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Japan were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Jan 14 Americans say they will honor King holiday Despite having their first black president, Americans are no more certain than before that the country is closer to the racial equality preached by Martin Luther King Jr., a poll shows. Seventy-seven percent of people interviewed in an AP-GfK poll say there has been significant progress toward King’s dream, about the same as the 75 percent who felt that way in 2006, before Obama was elected. Just over one in five, 22 percent, say they feel there has been “no significant progress” toward that dream. “The exuberance and thrill of seeing an African American elected to the presidency has been tempered by the outrageous claims that we’ve heard about him,” said William Jelani Cobb, a history professor at Rutgers University. Real concerns that King fought for remain, even with a black president, he said. “And the violent rhetoric we’ve seen directed towards (Obama) diminishes the initial sentiment that we’ve made great progress because of the election,” he said. The poll also reveals that more people plan to celebrate Monday’s federal holiday honoring King — 30 percent, compared to 23 percent who had such plans five years ago. That includes 46 percent of non-whites, 38 percent of college graduates, 36 percent who live in urban areas and 36 percent who attend religious services at least weekly, according to the poll. Some communities in the South, including around Atlanta, where schools have been closed because of a snow and ice storm, have decided to make up one of the days on MLK Day, upsetting some African-American groups. In 1994, Congress added community service as a focus of the federal holiday, which marks its 25th anniversary this year. More than one million Americans are expected to participate in 13,000 projects around the country on the King Day of Service, said Patrick Corvington, head of the Corporation for National and Community Service, the federal agency charged with administering service projects on the King holiday. “The focus on service has allowed for a different kind of conversation about Dr. King and what he was about,” Corvington said. “It allows all people to connect with Dr. King in different ways.” The new poll also shows most of the nation in support of the King holiday. Three-quarters of those surveyed this year say King’s birthday should be so honored, with 84 percent of non-white respondents believing so, compared to 68 percent of white respondents. Younger adults are also more apt to feel the birthday deserves the honor, as 81 percent among those under 50 years old supported the holiday, compared to 66 percent among those 50 to 64 and 62 percent among seniors. The civil rights icon, who would have turned 82 on Saturday, is the only American who was not a U.S. president honored with a federal holiday. The AP-GfK Poll was conducted January 5-10, 2010 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ Associated Press Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the Poll was Conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Martin Luther King Jr. Day was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10, 2011. It is based on landline telephone and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education, and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com. Jan 12 Obama, Republicans in Congress get higher marks after season of compromise Americans give higher marks to President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans after a holiday season of compromise paid dividends for both, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll. At the start of the divided government era, the survey found that 53 percent of Americans approve of how Obama is doing his job, his best numbers since the divisive health care vote 10 months ago. And, compared with just after the November elections, more now express confidence that Obama and the new Republican-controlled House can work together to solve the country’s most urgent problems, chief among them the struggling economy. “It’s going to be difficult because there are some bleeding-heart liberals way over on the left and some uptight conservatives,” said Spirit Fliege, 83, a Republican from Brentwood, Calif. “It’s going to take someone who can operate very smoothly. Whether Obama can or not, we don’t know.” Most people, according to the poll, now are putting their faith in Republicans to implement the changes needed to fix the economy. But a majority also now view the Democrats favorably, an oddity just two months after voters dealt Obama’s party what he called “a shellacking” in congressional elections. Still, despite expressing more optimism in certain areas, Americans are down on Congress itself. And roughly half express anger with American politics, while disappointment and frustration remain with politicians of all stripes. “They’re totally ignoring the people. They make all kinds of promises and put the shaft to the people,” said Sandy Parton, 66, of Honey Grove, Texas. “I’ve seen them say one thing and do another.” The period during which the poll was conducted included last Saturday, when a shooting rampage in Arizona left six dead and several more injured, including a congresswoman, and touched off debate over the caustic nature of American politics. The December lame-duck session of Congress left an imprint on Americans who had made it clear in November that they were tired of one-party rule in Washington and hungry for bipartisanship. In a bow to that desire as 2010 ended, Obama struck a deal with Republicans to extend temporarily all the Bush-era tax cuts. And he has indicated a willingness to work with new House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, on several other issues, including looming trade deals and the reauthorization of an education law. Some people like what they see. “He’s doing the best he can with what he was handed,” said Richard Cambell, 42, a truck driver from Rockingham, N.C., who says Obama deserves a second term. The poll found that since the year began: —Obama improved his job-performance rating by 6 percentage points, up from 47 percent just after the November elections. Disapproval is at 46 percent. He scored higher marks on handling the economy, too, as the unemployment rate edged down to 9.4 percent; 47 percent now approve, compared with 41 percent two months ago. And 59 percent view him favorably, while 40 percent view him unfavorably. —Boehner became better known to the general public in his first foray on the political scene as a national leader. And impressions of him were about evenly divided, with 34 percent viewing him positively and 31 percent viewing him negatively. —Republicans in Congress got a slight bump, too, though they are not nearly as popular as Obama. Now, 36 percent give them high marks, compared with 29 percent last fall. But the increase was driven entirely by people who identify themselves as Republicans. Support among independents did not change. —On the question of whether Obama and Republicans can work in a bipartisan manner to solve what ails the country, 48 percent express some degree of optimism and 52 percent express some level of pessimism. It’s an improvement from just after the elections, when 41 percent were confident and 58 percent were not. —Democrats generally are back to being viewed in a positive light by most Americans — 53 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable. That’s better than at any point during the height of the 2010 campaign. Views of the Republican Party are evenly split at 48 percent. —More than half — 56 percent — say they are confident that the GOP can improve the economy, though slightly less — 51 percent — say they think Republicans in Congress will actually implement their campaign policy promises. And relatively few think Republicans in Congress understand the important short-term issues the country must focus on. —People still aren’t hot on Congress: 69 percent disapprove, 26 percent approve. And nearly 6 in 10 still say the nation is heading in the wrong direction. —Democrats slightly improved their standing on most issues, most notably surpassing Republicans on handling the economy for the first time since June: 45 percent trust the Democrats to handle it, 40 percent the Republicans. Democrats also pulled even with Republicans on managing the federal budget deficit, and they expanded their advantage on handling health care. The poll was conducted Jan. 5-10 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. ___ Associated Press Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Associated Press writer Philip Elliott contributed to this report. ___ Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com How the poll was conducted The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Congress and politics was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10. It is based on landline telephone and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones. Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com . By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer www.gfk.com/us/ www.ap.org Home | About Us | Poll Archive | Poll Methodology | Contact