I am a Professional investor BE, English About Responsibility Capabilities Views Contact Search English Views Real Assets House View No-one ever said predicting the future was easy, but this report represents our best collective judgement on the current and future investment themes we believe will shape the real assets market. CONTRIBUTORS Laurence Monnier, James Tarry, Luke Layfield, Sean McLachlan George Fraser-Harding, Renos Booth, Zoe Austin After a year where many real asset markets were rocked by COVID-19, our investment teams set out their expectations for 2021 and beyond. PDF 2.9 MB 26 PAGES Real Assets House View 2021 When we published our first Real Assets House View in February 2020, the economic outlook was vastly different to today. The coronavirus pandemic and severe economic contraction experienced in 2020 will influence real assets performance for years to come. As such, the release of this report could not be timelier. In November 2020 and during many follow up sessions, the outlook for different sectors was the subject of robust debate among the investment teams across our real assets platform, encompassing real estate, infrastructure and private debt. Our real assets research team had the task of shaping and refining the debate, and ultimately bringing the various viewpoints together into what we believe is a coherent and future-focused House View. For 2021 and beyond, we see three key themes that will shape real asset markets: UK joins Europe in zero rate environment In our view this should favour stronger performance of UK real assets over the medium term as returns adjust to this new norm – despite the headwinds of the coronavirus and Brexit. The objective of net zero carbon emissions is being enshrined in law across Europe We believe this is likely to generate a large pipeline of opportunities to invest in low-carbon infrastructure and cleaner buildings, while aligning to net zero will increasingly drive asset values. New ways of living post-COVID-19 will change the real asset investment landscape We expect to see greater differentiation of performance between and within asset classes, driven by their alignment to these societal shifts. To reflect the varying interests of real asset investors – from those interested in single asset classes to those with a particular investment outcome in mind – our House View comprises the following sections: Our methodology and central scenario; Insights for growth-focused investors; Insights for buy-and-hold investors; Insights for infrastructure investors; Insights for real estate investors; Insights for long-income real estate investors; Insights for private debt investors. We hope this document will help investors navigate this dynamic and challenging landscape. Not everyone will agree with the assumptions made or the conclusions reached. No-one ever said predicting the future was easy, but this report represents our best collective judgement on the current and future investment themes we believe will shape the real assets market. Want more content like this? Sign up to receive our AIQ thought leadership content. Professional email First name Last name Job title Company I acknowledge that I qualify as a professional client or institutional/qualified investor. By submitting these details, I confirm that I would like to receive thought leadership email updates from Aviva Investors, in addition to any other email subscription I may have with Aviva Investors. You can unsubscribe or tailor your email preferences at any time. For more information, please visit our Privacy Policy. Agree SUBSCRIBE Contributors Laurence Monnier Head of Quantitative Research – Real Assets View profile James Tarry Senior Portfolio Manager, Alternative Income View profile Luke Layfield Fund Manager View profile Important information Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (AIGSL). Unless stated otherwise any views and opinions are those of Aviva Investors. They should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified by Aviva Investors and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested. Nothing in this material, including any references to specific securities, assets classes and financial markets is intended to or should be construed as advice or recommendations of any nature. This material is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. In Europe this document is issued by Aviva Investors Luxembourg S.A. Registered Office: 2 rue du Fort Bourbon, 1st Floor, 1249 Luxembourg. Supervised by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. An Aviva company. In the UK Issued by Aviva Investors Global Services Limited. Registered in England No. 1151805. Registered Office: St Helens, 1 Undershaft, London EC3P 3DQ. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm Reference No. 119178. In France, Aviva Investors France is a portfolio management company approved by the French Authority “Autorité des Marchés Financiers”, under n° GP 97-114, a limited liability company with Board of Directors and Supervisory Board, having a share capital of 17 793 700 euros, whose registered office is located at 14 rue Roquépine, 75008 Paris and registered in the Paris Company Register under n° 335 133 229. In Switzerland, this document is issued by Aviva Investors Schweiz GmbH. In Singapore, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Asia Pte. Limited (AIAPL) for distribution to institutional investors only. Please note that AIAPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIAPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIAPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Singapore with registration number 200813519W, holds a valid Capital Markets Services Licence to carry out fund management activities issued under the Securities and Futures Act (Singapore Statute Cap. 289) and Asian Exempt Financial Adviser for the purposes of the Financial Advisers Act (Singapore Statute Cap.110). Registered Office: 1Raffles Quay, #27-13 South Tower, Singapore 048583. In Australia, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Pacific Pty Ltd (AIPPL) for distribution to wholesale investors only. Please note that AIPPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIPPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIPPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Australia with Australian Business No. 87 153 200 278 and Australian Company No. 153 200 278, holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL 411458) issued by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Business Address: Level 30, Collins Place, 35 Collins Street, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Australia. The name “Aviva Investors” as used in this material refers to the global organization of affiliated asset management businesses operating under the Aviva Investors name. Each Aviva investors’ affiliate is a subsidiary of Aviva plc, a publicly- traded multi-national financial services company headquartered in the United Kingdom. Aviva Investors Canada, Inc. (“AIC”) is located in Toronto and is registered with the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”) as a Portfolio Manager, an Exempt Market Dealer, and a Commodity Trading Manager. Aviva Investors Americas LLC is a federally registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Aviva Investors Americas is also a commodity trading advisor (“CTA”) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), and is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). AIA’s Form ADV Part 2A, which provides background information about the firm and its business practices, is available upon written request to: Compliance Department, 225 West Wacker Drive, Suite 2250, Chicago, IL 60606. Latest real assets views The long decline: Why trend economic growth is set to go on falling 12 NOV 2021 Trend rates of economic growth, which have been on the decline for decades in the world’s leading economies, look set to fall further. That will have big implications for governments, companies, households and investors, argues Stewart Robertson. Read more An investor’s perspective on the UK’s Net Zero Strategy 28 OCT 2021 Darryl Murphy assesses the implications and opportunities for infrastructure investors. Read more Disclosures, trade-offs and green premia: The future of sustainability in real assets 7 OCT 2021 The path to a sustainable future for private markets is full of opportunity but also complexity, as Laurence Monnier and Ed Dixon explain. Read more On this site About us Contact us Views Investment capabilities Equities Fixed income Multi-asset & multi-strategy Real assets Investment resources Fund centre Regulatory Other links Aviva Aviva Ventures Careers LinkedIn Follow us on Twitter Legal & Regulatory Privacy notice Accessibility Cookie notice Manage cookies 166585 - 31/01/2022 © 2021 Aviva Investors Cookies At Aviva Investors we use cookies to ensure that our website works properly. We can also use cookies to improve and personalise your experience, understand how you use our website and for our advertising purposes. You can agree to all cookies by clicking on ‘Accept All Cookies’ or choose which cookies you want to agree to by clicking on ‘Manage Cookie Settings’. You can change these settings at any time. For more information about the cookies on our website and how we use them please see ourCookie Notice MANAGE COOKIE SETTINGS ACCEPT ALL COOKIES