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It meant more to Silverfield Tigers Which bowl game could Memphis go to after becoming eligible Tiger Basketball How to watch Memphis Tigers vs. Virginia Tech basketball game Tigers For Tigers assistant and wife, daughter's disorder was call to action 'The virus is not done with us': Omicron variant could spoil Shelby County's COVID respite SAMUEL HARDIMAN | Memphis Commercial Appeal Show Caption Seven weeks ago, it appeared that Memphis and Shelby County were headed toward a long-awaited COVID respite. Cases were in free-fall after a deadly surge of the delta variant throughout the summer and early autumn. Dr. Manoj Jain, the infectious disease doctor who has advised the city of Memphis throughout the pandemic, expressed optimism in early October and anticipated a mild winter as the novel coronavirus faded into the background. At the time, after the deadly delta wave and more than 10 months of vaccinations, Shelby County's overall immunity —vaccinated and natural immunity — to COVID-19 was as high as it ever had been. He couched his positive outlook with the caveat that no worrisome variant was on the horizon. Dr. Manoj Jain, the infectious disease expert advising Memphis, poses for a portrait at Christ Community Health Center on Frayser Blvd, in Memphis, Tenn., on … Show more ARIEL COBBERT/ THE COMMERCIAL APPEAL Jain's outlook and that of medical experts across the world, clouded this week with news of a new variant -- dubbed Omicron -- spreading with rapidity across parts of southern Africa. The variant, which has myriad mutations that make it more transmissible, has caused a spike in South Africa, prompted nations to restrict travel and made the U.S. stock market shudder on Friday. "We may be thinking it's over, but the virus is not done with us and we are going to have to find a new medium in how to deal with this," Jain said. Travel bans: The omicron variant has sparked new travel restrictions. Are more COVID rules ahead? Quarantine: Close contact quarantine orders dropped in Memphis due to new state law, health department says Jain said he is evaluating Omicron using three factors — how transmissible it is, how severe of disease it causes and its ability to evade immunity from vaccines. The science he's read about Omicron's mutations and the case spike in South Africa indicates that it is quite transmissible, he said. The other two questions — how virulent the strain is and how much vaccines protect against it — remain unclear to Jain. "We have to have a healthy respect for ...the new variant Omicron because it can do a great deal of damage in terms of causing illness, hospitalizations and deaths, which are unnecessary," Jain said. The new variant has not yet been identified in Shelby County, but like other variants that first spread in other countries and then arrived in Memphis, Jain expects it is only a matter of time. Omicron: Biden addresses travel restrictions Omicron was first reported to the WHO as COVID cases in South Africa suddenly spiked to thousands per day. ASSOCIATED PRESS, WOCHIT And, unlike other variants, Memphis likely won't rely on genetic sequencing to find it. The right machine running a polymer-chain-based reaction test can identify the Omicron variant, meaning it will likely be found sooner than if genetic sequencing was needed. However, Jain is not entirely pessimistic about the new variant. He said he thinks it is likely that existing vaccines provide some protection against the Omicron variant and will likely succeed in preventing severe disease, sparing people visits to the hospital and death. The infectious disease specialist with Baptist Memorial Healthcare said common avoidance practices such as wearing a mask and distancing could help in the short-term against Omicron, keeping the case curve from spiking too high too quickly. Shortages on the shelves: How Memphis grocery stores are dealing with supply chain issues Vaccines: These Memphis institutions are exempt from Tennessee's COVID-19 vaccine mandate ban Jain noted that masking and distancing are not long-term solutions to COVID-19 unlike vaccinations, antibody treatments and the antiviral medications that could soon come online. If Omicron's mutations prove too good at evading the immunity created by existing vaccines, Pfizer and BioNTech said a new shot could come within 100 days. Jain is more sanguine about Omicron than he has been about prior surges. The increased amount of scientific solutions to the COVID-19 problem has him that way, he explained. "I don't panic over these, the new variants and the changes that we are seeing in the numbers by saying that these are the options that are there, and I understand those options and what's available, and I wish others did and if they did, we would all be better," Jain said. Samuel Hardiman covers Memphis city government, politics, energy and environmental topics for The Commercial Appeal. He can be reached by email at samuel.hardiman@commercialappeal.com or followed on Twitter at @samhardiman. Help Terms of Service Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy Privacy Policy Site Map Accessibility Our Ethical Principles Manage Cookies © Copyright Gannett 2021 About Your Privacy Clicking on the (X) in the top right corner retains the default setting of only strictly necessary cookies and "Always Active" purposes as preset by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) of Europe. 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