ABOUT SHIPPERS CARRIERS JOBS RESOURCES LOGIN CONTACT THE FREIGHT MARKET FOR SHIPPERS: YOUR WEEKLY BRIEF Crunch Time - and Things To Be Thankful For November 23, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Thanksgiving week is here, and it is no surprise that shippers are feeling the last-minute crunch to get things out the door. Out of all the shipping modes, reefer freight has been affected the most, with rejection rates up from 30% back in August to 38% this week in the refrigerated market. Oddly, the spot market saw a $0.03 per mile (including fuel and other accessorials) drop last week, but relative to last year at this time, they are still 16% higher. Even with the frenzy of the holiday, we have a lot to be thankful for in our industry. We are living in a time of rapid change and transition. Every week we are learning how to do something better, faster and more accurately with the help of technology. Can you imagine, for example, trying to navigate the current freight market without the advancements in data science? This is especially true in light of the imbalanced market we have experienced since COVID. Relying on historical data is not the option it once was. In this rapidly advancing industry, we need to have our finger on the pulse of emerging trends as fast as they happen, and thankfully, technology is allowing us to do just that. (See how ORBIT TI can streamline your business.) From all of us at Choptank Transport/Hub Group, we wish you a happy and healthy Thanksgiving holiday! Read the Full Report It's Apples and Oranges, Really Your Outlook for the Week Ahead November 16, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. History does have a tendency to repeat itself, but maybe not always in the same way, especially when it comes to the supply chain. For example, what is the difference between the bull market of 2018 and the pandemic-driven bull market we are currently in? They both consist of elevated freight volumes and tight capacity, but there are several things that make these two outlier market events very dissimilar. In 2018, there was a sudden influx of demand, and capacity constraints appeared almost instantly. In the current bull market, simultaneous growth is occurring in two key sectors – the consumer economy, and the industrial economy. That was certainly not the situation in 2018. In addition, stimulus money filtered into the economy on three separate occasions during the pandemic. This fueled consumer spending by putting money immediately in the hands of almost every American. Again, this did not happen in 2018. Read the full report 46 Days and Counting ... November 9, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. We have all been in the annoying situation where you get caught in a grocery checkout line that is barely moving. You assess the other lines and notice one that is much shorter, so you grab your cart and without trying to look too eager, you run – no, walk fast – to the shorter checkout. This can be risky because others are noticing the same shorter line and can scoot in before you, making you lose your place in the first line and, in turn, leaving you with an even longer wait than if you had just stayed put. So goes the situation at the U.S. ports. With 77 ships waiting at Los Angeles/Long Beach, other ports are beckoning vessels to sail their way, where the lines are much, much shorter. But if all switch lines at the same time, they may find themselves in ports with less capacity along with others who have made the bold move. Ultimately, this could be disastrous. Read the full Report Progress at the Ports November 2, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. We are in the midst of a battle. It is the global supply chain versus the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (LA/LB). It is history in the making and will no doubt bring about substantial changes to the way we move our goods from one place on the planet to another. But those changes are not happening fast enough. The Ports of LA/LB are not equipped to handle the amount of freight they have today. No port is. Prior to the pandemic, 17 ships at berth was the norm. Today there have been as many as 100 vessels waiting at one time. Volumes are at historic levels, and the problems created by the extended influx of massive imports are monumental. In recent weeks, however, we have been able to find a few ways to keep things moving. Read the Full Report What About Some Positive News for a Change? October 26, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. It seems that every week there is another alarming news story relating to the pandemic. Yes, U.S. ports are congested beyond what we have ever seen before. Inflation is showing signs of being less transitory and more permanent in nature, and shadow inflation is a real thing that is happening right under our noses. But there is good news, too, that does not get as much attention as the headline-grabbing stories that paint a much darker future. The latest initial jobless claims report came in at 290K, the lowest since March 14, 2020. And job openings? They reached a record high this summer. Another piece of good news is that your house is most likely worth more than it has ever been. U.S. home sales jumped 7% in September and interest rates remain low. Read the Full Report Will 24/7 Port Operations Be the Answer to the Logjam? October 19, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Just how bad is the port situation? The Marine Exchange of Southern California posted on Twitter: "Ship report 10/14: 139 total ships in port LA/LB includes 83 at anchor or holding areas & 56 at berths. Of the 139, 91 are container ships including 64 at anchor or in holding areas & 27 at berth. 32 vessels in holding areas; 28 container ships, 4 tankers. President Biden met with key players regarding the port congestion dilemma this past week to encourage 24/7 operations at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. In addition to port leaders, other stakeholders were part of the discussion, such as teamsters, longshoremen, and business executives from Walmart, UPS, FedEx, Home Depot and Target. The intentions behind lengthening the hours of operations are well-meaning, but will the plan be effective in time to make a difference for Christmas merchandise? Some critics say these measures are too little, too late, and do not believe that simply extending hours will be enough to alleviate the situation before the holidays. Longer hours, they argue, will not begin to address the more fundamental, underlying problems in the supply chain such as a shortage of chassis, congested rail yards, and the biggest predicament of all... the shortage of labor, especially truck drivers. Read the full report Post-Holiday Cargo May Push Sales into January/February October 12, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Christmas is the Super Bowl of the supply chain, and we are all wondering if the industry is going to be able to handle the challenge and make it to the end zone. Both Amazon and Target are pushing holiday shoppers' buttons early this season to encourage consumers to make purchases now and not wait until Black Friday for those big deals. This past Monday, Amazon began offering deep discounts, rivaling those found only post-Thanksgiving day. Target also announced that they are kicking off "deals days" October 10-12, luring buyers into the holiday spirit. A survey conducted by ParcelLab revealed that 50% of American consumers plan to have their holiday shopping done before Cyber Monday. Breaking it down even further, a separate survey conducted by YouGov, showed that 5% of those surveyed already had completed their shopping. Twelve percent indicated that they expected to be done gift buying by Halloween, and 33% by Cyber Monday. If you have not done any shopping yet, don't be surprised if the shelves do not have what you are looking for when you are ready to purchase. That "perfect gift" may be out of stock as soon as it hits the store's inventory. Everyone has been saying it: Shop early, do not wait. One has to wonder, with all the backlogs at the ports, what is going to happen to the freight that doesn't get delivered in time? Will we have massive fire sales in January and February, a time when consumerism historically takes a break? Who knows? Post-Christmas shopping sales may turn into an even bigger January-February tradition. Read the Full Report Q4 is Going to be a Push-Me Pull-You Holiday Season Your Outlook For The Week Ahead October 5, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. We have all witnessed the unbelievable rise in volumes since the beginning of the pandemic. And now, here we are, entering the busiest Q3 holiday season in history. Chances are we have just seen the tip of the iceberg. As reported in previous market briefs, retailers are pushing the Christmas season early. Just this weekend, holiday music could be heard in big box stores (I heard it in Lowe's) and across the country. Already, the numbers on the outbound tender volume index chart (see OTVI chart later in this report) for the past week are beginning to show an upward trajectory, and everyone is wondering ... just how far can supply lines be pushed? But this may change. Soon, we may see volumes pulled down as reports of China's widespread power shortages are emerging. The timing could not be worse for them or us. Winter is coming, so for the Chinese, limited power could mean an extremely expensive and long, cold winter. There already are reports that some companies are being forced to conserve power through officially sanctioned power reductions, which undoubtedly will also affect manufacturing output. For example, one factory that normally runs six days a week has been forced to run only four. Read the full report Leaves Are Not the Only Thing Falling This Season Your Outlook For The Week Ahead Sept 28, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Inventories in the United States are falling. According to Dr. Zac Rogers, Assistant Professor of Supply Chain Management at Colorado State University, the "August 2021 Logistics Managers Index Report" cites that inventories are falling despite a mad rush by manufacturers and retailers to restock. No need to panic, though. The decrease is minor (down in August [-2.6%] from July), with some commodities suffering more than others. One recent and noticeable deficiency in inventory levels is paper products. Everything from mail-order catalogs to magazines and books, and yes... we are back to toilet paper and paper towels being in short supply. Some stores have even returned to rationing how much you can purchase. So what is the answer to alleviating the congestion at the ports, one of the biggest contributing factors to low inventories? While some ports are trying to remedy "Containergeddon" (with and without the government's prodding), some shippers may be making it worse. Read the full report Miller Lite and Cat Food, Where Are You? Your Outlook For The Week Ahead Sept 21, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Regardless of whether you like grocery shopping or hate it, the occasional trip through the maze of too-many-choices is unavoidable. When the pandemic first hit, we were struck by the empty shelves of toilet paper and paper towels. Luckily it was an inconvenience that seemed to remedy itself fairly quickly, but now we are seeing new repercussions arise. The latest casualty of shortages can be found in two distinct sections of the store: the alcohol aisle and the pet food aisle. In the past week, it seems that stores have had NO bottles of Miller Lite. In the grocery's pet food section, wet cat food is has been noticeably anemic for weeks. So, like all unsolved mysteries, the place to go to find answers is the Internet. Read the full report Freight Volumes Likely to Continue into Summer 2022 & It's Truck Driver Appreciation Week! Your Outlook For The Week Ahead Sept 14, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Never before have seen we seen such extended high volumes in the U.S. freight market. The question is, how long can it continue and how will we handle it all with growing port congestion, warehouses at maximum capacity, an overtaxed rail system and an overloaded truck market? ________________________ Speaking of the truckload market, this week is National Truck Driver Appreciation Week. This is a great time for shippers to say thank you to your carriers. Choptank Transport is sending out gift boxes to its top 50 carriers as well as serving coffee, bagels and donuts to its LTL carriers at its Preston, Maryland warehouse location this Saturday, September 18, 2021. ________________________ But back to the topic of freight volumes. Analysts are predicting that volumes over the next few weeks will remain steady, even as we saw some relief in capacity post Labor Day, as is usual. But, the tide could and may easily turn as we approach the end of September. It remains a volatile market with the potential of getting extremely intense as shippers become hot for their freight deliveries, needing time-sensitive loads and expedited shipments for the holidays "delivered yesterday." No doubt, rates are going to go up the closer we get to Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years. Read the full report Spot Rates Hit New August Highs, Ida's Aftermath, and More ... Your Outlook For The Week Ahead September 7, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. More people are going back to work, yet the latest overall available job numbers came in disappointingly low at 235,000. Recent manufacturing and order backlog indices are showing a lot of momentum going into 2022, suggesting a strong truck market beyond the holidays. Read more about these topics in our Employment and Manufacturing News sections below. Spot rates soared last week (record-setting in August for both van and reefer rates) while load posts dipped as Hurricane Ida made her presence known. She was a devastating hurricane, and everyone knows that relief efforts are often closely tied to truckload capacity. The after-effects of the F4 hurricane are still being felt in areas that were hardest hit in and around New Orleans. As of Sunday, more than 456,000 people were still in the dark! According to an article in Freightwaves, when a hurricane is forecasted to make landfall in the continental United States, FEMA begins its recovery efforts two to three days before the storm's arrival. Trucks continue to be sourced two to three weeks after the event to bring in needed supplies, and then later, to return unused supplies. Read the full report Steering Clear of Ida's Wake Your Outlook For The Week Ahead August 31, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Ida slammed into New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane and remained so for four full hours. Reports of the powerful hurricane reversing the flow of the Mississippi River was startling, as was the report that 22 barges broke loose from anchor, creating the possibility of a collision with a levee and a potential disastrous outcome. Luckily, no further reports on that unfortunate event have been publicized. After early assessment yesterday morning at the Port of New Orleans, little damage was revealed other than power outages and some minor wind damage. The New Orleans Terminal and Ports America were closed for containerized operations Monday, August 30, as well as Empire, Coastal Cargo, Gulf Stream Marine and Ports America for breakbulk operations. All in all, the situation at the ports could have been a lot worse. Read the full report Don't Wait for Black Friday this Year Your Outlook For The Week Ahead August 24, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. There is no playbook to consult for this unpredictable freight market, and recent developments have made the task of year-end planning and forecasting (the core of transportation management) an almost impossible undertaking. Will volumes continue at peak levels through the remainder of the year? Will the Delta variant shut down any hopes of a nostalgic, in-store retail experience this holiday, or will consumers turn back to online shopping to fill Santas sleigh? Will the port situations finally ease or get worse? Will factory employment woes resolve themselves? How in the world do manufacturers and shippers plan with all this uncertainty? They don't want overstocked warehouses, but they can't have empty inventory shelves either. It is a conundrum! With all the disruptions, many shippers are banking on a busier than usual holiday and are trying to amass inventories early. The manufacturers of Coach and Kate Spade handbags, for example, are ordering early and banking on high demand, even if it means winding up with an excess of product in the first half of the new year. Read the full report Is This Our "Uh-Oh" Moment? Your Outlook For The Week Ahead Aug 17, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Normal [ˈnôrməl], ADJECTIVE, conforming to a standard; usual, typical, or expected. When does a trend cease being a trend, and transition into something we would consider "normal?" We may be looking at a freight market over the past year that has made that transition. Constant supply chain disruptions have created, in a way, a state of normalcy. The first hurdle shippers faced last year was the onset of COVID-19 and the Chinese New Year. Let's just get past the 2020 Chinese New Year and things will improve, was the mindset. Then shippers were thinking, if we can just get past summer's unprecedented peak season, things will get better. Now everyone is saying, uh-oh! as we stare down the barrel of an already choked freight market with an upcoming holiday season that could reach epic proportions in sheer volume and capacity constraints. Read full report Economy Still Strong, Fuel Costs Rising Your Outlook For The Week Ahead Aug 10, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. It is a good thing that container ship captains are more cool-headed than Russell Crowe in the movie "Unhinged," but you know they must be feeling a similar kind of road rage on the seas in the current port logjam situation. Adding to the frustration is the realization that there is no immediate solution to the problem. The maritime backlog will be a force to be reckoned with well into the first quarter of 2022 ... or will it be? There is a new problem arising in China, and it is affecting us here at home too. Read more in our Ports section below. This Week's Shout-Out Here is a shout-out to Choptank's port and drayage team members who deserve a high-five this month. They are busier than ever handling oversized and overweight loads out of the ports, with many on "hot rush" status. Just a heads-up, we are finding capacity in this crazy market. Diesel Prices The cost of diesel has gone up a whopping 38.5% since November. In July, prices surpassed $3.30 per gallon, the highest since 2018. As recently as four days ago, in Pittstown Township, Pennsylvania, diesel was at $4.00 per gallon. (Chart Source: Transport Topics, August 9-16 edition - Blue shading shows the current 12 months, yellow line shows the previous twelve months.) Read full report 'Just in Time For the Holidays' is No Longer a Viable Strategy Your Outlook For The Week Ahead Aug 3, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Someone must have hit the pause button on the freight market this past week with few significant changes; the same high volumes, high rates and squeezed capacity. Looking ahead, however, we see a different picture. This year's holiday freight will need nothing less than the magic train from Warner Brother’s Polar Express to get goods from Santa's workshop to the average household in time for Christmas. We are already facing backlogs at U.S. ports, delays at Asian ports, and record-breaking freight volumes Iong before peak season. So what happens when peak season arrives? How will the supply chain handle it all? Just-in-time strategies are no longer an option. Today’s shippers must implement more strategic, extremely advanced planning as their best bet for success. Read the full report Contract Rates Closing the Gap on Spot Rates Your Outlook For The Week Ahead July 27, 2021 As the Summer Olympics unfold with underwhelming viewership numbers, and reports of Delta variant COVID-19 cases increasingly pepper the daily news, the nation's freight market continues to handle unprecedented amounts of cargo every day. Accepted tender volumes hit an all-time high last week, which, when coupled with an epically busy freight market, indicates there is no slowdown in sight. Contract rates for truckload shippers have risen to their highest on record (which goes back to January 2017), increasing at a steady pace since the beginning of the year. Tender rejections, on the other hand, are currently at their lowest level in five months. Shippers, for the first time in a long time, are feeling more comfortable with contract rates and relying less on the volatile spot market where pricing and capacity are unpredictable and can change rapidly. You can expect carriers to charge more for spot rates this week. Since this is the last week of the month, capacity always shrinks as shippers try to get as much freight out the door as possible to increase their month-end revenues. Read the full report Volumes Aren't Slowing, But Rejections Take a Breather Your Outlook For The Week Ahead July 20, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Even though rates have inched down marginally since the Fourth of July holiday, the demand for trucks has not budged a bit. Capacity is still tight, and the return to normal seasonality that we began to see last week will not be long-lived as we continue to experience historic-level volumes. Chart #6 in this report illustrates the situation perfectly. So what is ahead? This week, rates for van and reefer freight are expected to continue to soften slightly, but rejections continue to fall (see Outbound Tender Rejection charts #1 and #2 below). That means shippers will have only a short time to leverage negotiations while rates dip slightly as we approach the end-of-July lull, especially if lead times are reasonable and tenders are submitted early. Read the full report Seasonality Returns to the Freight Market. Your Weekly Market Report has a New Look! July 13, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Don't have time to read a lengthy market report? Our new dashboard design gives you quick access to the most important market information of the week. Send us an email if you like the new format - marketing@choptanktransport.com Read the Full Report Why Shipping Rates May Face Double Trouble July 6, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Recently published FMCSA data from the Drug and Alcohol Clearing House program reminds us why there is such a collosal problem surrounding the driver shortage. The numbers suggest that a program designed to keep America's roads safe also may be a major contributor to skyrocketing rates and anemic truck capacity. According to President and CEO Chris Spear of the American Trucking Association, 60,800 additional drivers are needed to handle the current amount of available freight in the United States. It just so happens that the Drug and Alcohol Clearing House legislation has taken more than 60,000 drivers off the road for violations. Yes, the program is taking at-risk drivers off the road, which is a good thing, but at a cost to the industry. It should be noted that 22% of drivers with violations have started the Return-to-Duty process, which is great news from a safety standpoint, but is little consolation since these drivers are still not driving. Read the full report. Read the full report From Scorching Temps to The Ice Road, a Record-Setting Week June 29, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. It has been a week of record-setting events. Imports out of the Seattle market have reached an all-time high, with the port's popularity growing as an alternative to congested Los Angeles/Long Beach. Atlanta outbound rejection rates also have hit all-time highs, creeping up over 31% by the end of last week. And shipping costs from China to the United States also hit record highs, as covered in the Ocean/Port section of this market brief. The record-breaking numbers go beyond just logistics phenomena. A blistering heat wave across the Northwest is roasting Oregon and Washington state, producing unheard-of temperatures, such as Saturday's record-setting 112 degrees in Portland. ________________________ In other news, remember a few weeks ago we reported that FedEx was weeding out 1,400 unprofitable customers/lanes from the company's pipeline with little to no notice? Well, it apparently made some big customers really angry--so much so that FedEx is backpedaling and reversing its decision. And just for fun, this weekend's TOP-WATCHED MOVIE ON NETFLIX was one that should resonate with big-rig lovers everywhere. Starring tough-guy icon Liam Neeson, The Ice Road is a non-stop, edge-of-your-seat trucker flick that delivers the goods for anyone looking for an action-packed evening. Any movie that has Neeson saying, "Now I'm angry!" you know has to be good! There are three very cool trucks (the film was actually criticized for being one long ad for Kenworth trucks) and tons of nail-biting moments. Was it realistic? Not even a little bit. But entertaining? Heck yeah! Read the full report June Brings National Logistics Day and National Mango Month June 22, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. What? You've never heard of National Logistics Day? Well, don't feel bad; you are not alone. A relatively new national holiday, it was conceived in 2019 in hopes of bringing awareness to the 3PL industry's $214 billion dollar impact on the U.S. economy. June 28 is the big day, so mark your calendar. As remarkable as the industry is, before the pandemic, most people gave little thought to the world of freight brokerages and the supply chain, but that is certainly no longer true. COVID-19 thrust the essential nature of our industry into the spotlight. And so the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA) is celebrating this year with a big splash, trying to get the folks in Washington to recognize and approve it as a national day of observance. The TIA's website even features a letter of support from Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf, who states, "The logistics industry plays a critical role in being an economic driver of the commonwealth's growth and prosperity. As Governor . . . I am pleased to offer my unwavering support of National Logistics Day." Read the full report LTL Capacity Just Got a Whole Lot Tighter June 15, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. A couple of weird things happened this week. I have to mention, of course, the whale that swallowed the lobster diver. Talk about a logistical nightmare. How does one extricate oneself from the throat of a humpback? It is a real-life Jonah story and no doubt, the diver will have stories to pass down for generations to come. The other bizarre thing that happened recently was a sudden announcement from FedEx. If you ship less-than-truckload (LTL) freight, you already may have heard the news: Capacity for LTL shipments is about to get a whole lot tighter. On Friday afternoon, with no advance notice, FedEx gave walking papers to 1,400 LTL customers saying it would no longer be servicing those accounts, at least until further notice. Read the report Hurricanes, Cyberattacks, and the 'Network of Connectivity' June 8, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. What do the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack and hurricane season have in common? They both mark an era that suggests great vulnerability in our aging energy infrastructure. Hurricane season began June 1, and after the fluky ice storms and an extreme cold snap in February, it thrust the Southern United States into an energy crisis of epic proportions. More than 4.5 million businesses and residences in Texas and neighboring states were without power. The massive failure of an energy grid of that size was a wake-up call for the country. Several weeks ago, the disruption caused by the ransomware cyberattacks on the Colonial pipeline also affected millions of people. Read the full report Memorial Day Weekend a Bust, Weather-wise, but Cherry Season Is Here! June 1, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. For most of us, the weather this past holiday weekend dashed plans for outdoor fun and barbecues, but Monday, the actual holiday, brought plenty of sunshine, blue skies and low humidity. We'll take it! The last few weeks in spring always bring the excitement of local produce up and down the East Coast. There is nothing like savoring a fresh strawberry picked right out of the field at peak season, which in the Mid-Atlantic is early May. Next come blueberries, making their trek up the coast, working their way up from Florida to North Carolina to New Jersey, finally petering out in New England at the end of the season. On the West Coast, cherries are ready to harvest in California in early May, and they make their way up to the Northwest into Oregon and Washington beginning June 1. Here are a few little-known facts about those succulent little dark red orbs: Cherries in the United States are harvested in a 12-week period. Most cherries are picked, packed and delivered within two days! The 2021 harvest is expected to be up by 20% over last year with an average of 900 truckloads shipping every week. 70% of cherries are grown in Washington State, 18% in California, and 7% in Oregon. Produce season is upon us, and shippers can expect to feel the constraints of tighter reefer capacity as summer approaches. Read the full report Capacity Tightens for Memorial Day; U.S. Ag Exports Being Ditched for Empty Containers May 25, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. After a brief decline last week in reefer and dry van volumes, shippers can expect capacity this week to be very tight as Memorial Day weekend approaches and last-minute shipments are pushed out the door. Did you know? We have all felt the effects of the pandemic on the supply chain, from trucking to air, from rail to ocean. One segment of ocean transport that has been hit especially hard is the agricultural sector. When it comes to U.S. agricultural exports, the problem has grown to disastrous levels, and it is the American farmer who is paying the price. The container shortage has been around for months. What most people don't know is that in the frenzy to get imports from China processed at the ports, mainly West Coast ports, containers are not being reloaded with exports. Instead, they are being rushed back on board ships ... empty, heading back to Asia. Read the full report The Bullwhip Effect - Why Supply Chains Are So Stretched May 18, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Experts say we are once again experiencing the Bullwhip Effect, a term defined by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply as, "the demand distortion that travels upstream in the supply chain from the retailer through to the wholesaler and manufacturer due to the variance of orders which may be larger than that of sales." It is a supply chain debacle. Not only are consumers shipping more things than ever before in human history, but some manufacturers are showing signs of the hoarding mentality reminiscent of the early 2020 rush on two-ply. It seems that everything is in short supply these days, things like lumber, semiconductors, and container ships. Manufacturers are not only acquiescing to higher prices, they are overordering to ensure they don't run out of products. Resupplying is paramount these days, and if there is an opportunity to make a little more of whatever is needed, well heck, let's do it! After all, if there is one thing Americans will not tolerate, it is running out ... of anything ... ever. According to a Bloomberg article, here are just a few things the global economy is short on: "Copper, iron ore and steel. Corn, coffee, wheat, and soybeans. Lumber, semiconductors, plastic, and cardboard for packaging." With so much demand, it is not surprising the supply chain is in a constant state of apoplexy. Read the full report Market Remains Calm While Inflation Concerns Mount May 11, 2021 Capacity is expected to change little in the days ahead after a tough previous week when the double-whammy of Mother's Day and CVSA road checks hit the market. Weekend volumes took a slight dip, with spot rates heading a little lower. There were, as always, pockets of elevated activity, such as the reefer market from Atlanta to Baltimore (Atlanta shippers have had to extend lead times to four days for this lane), an example of where capacity was extremely tight. _____________________ The biggest concern for most Americans right now is inflation. We know it is coming, but to what extent is unclear. It will be interesting to see how long consumer sentiment continues to reign supreme, propping up the economy as it has over the past several months. There is talk of transitory inflation (bad, but temporary, and usually not catastrophic) and hyperinflation (really bad, and long-lasting). Higher prices have been around in the freight market for months, so you could say our industry has been dealing with inflationary costs for some time, but other factors are now amassing to create even bigger problems across many sectors of the economy. Supplies of raw materials like lumber and steel are affecting everything from home building to car manufacturing. Labor is becoming increasingly hard to find. The chip shortage also is crippling production in the automotive industry, affecting the production of new cars and Class 8 trucks. Retail companies are citing higher pricing because of commodity shortages. Circle back around to transportation, and the Southeast is about to feel the sting of a sudden fuel shortage due to a cyberattack and shutdown of one of the country's top fuel pipelines in the area. Hold on to your wallets, because there are indications that things are about to get a whole lot more expensive. Read the Full Report Where Your Freight May Get Delayed This Week May 4, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. The CVSA roadchecks begin today and Overdrive Online has published a list of states where drivers are most likely to get stopped for roadside inspections. It is no surprise that California is number one, but the number two spot on the list is not what you might have guessed ... it is our own state of Maryland! Rates in affected areas may run as high as 20% - 25% above their normal costs. On the other hand, according to the article's estimates, if your freight is moving through Virginia, Wyoming, or Oregon, you probably don't have too much to worry about regarding roadcheck delays. Read the full report Mother's Day + Roadchecks = Tightened Capacity April 27, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. As mentioned in the last week's market report, the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's International Roadcheck Week is May 4 - 6. This year, it coincides with Mother's Day weekend (May 8 - 9), which is a busy shipping time for nursery freight. As a result, shippers can expect extremely tight capacity next week with soaring spot market rates. If you can get your freight out the door this week, do it. And speaking of Mother's Day, be sure to read this Thursday's blog. We have spoken to some of our nursery customers to see how this year's growing season for flowers, shrubs, and trees is shaping up. Read how these shippers are dealing with the challenges relating to a second year of COVID combined with several impactful weather events, and super-tight flatbed (and reefer) capacity. Hopefully, you are not building a house in the near future. In addition to nursery freight, in our economic section, we look at lumber prices going through the roof (see what I did there?). The video clip of the week below explains the increases extremely well. Read the full report Upcoming Roadchecks Will Further Constrict Capacity April 20, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely, and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's International Roadcheck Week is only a fortnight away. The three-day event runs from May 4 - 6, bringing awareness to the importance of "vehicle maintenance and driver readiness." This year's focus will be on commercial vehicle lighting and hours of service, two areas that topped the violations list last year. Choptank Transport Executive VP Steve Covey says that historically, the road checks have a significant impact on capacity. "There are owner-operators who opt not to run at all during this time to avoid being taken out of service. We like to remind our customers that capacity shortages and higher spot pricing are common consequences of Roadcheck Week. Shippers should plan ahead and get their freight out early if they can." Last year there were more than 50,000 roadside inspections in North America, including Canada and Mexico, and of those, 20.9% were put out of service for violations. On a positive note, 13,088 CVSA decals were issued to vehicles and drivers that were inspected with no issues. Read the full report Meaningful Market Shifts or Typical Freight Market Swings? April 13, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Like the painted horses on a merry-go-round, the freight market is up and down these days. It can be difficult to interpret the most recent changes because what may seem like the beginning of an impactful trend maybe just a correction to an imbalanced market. This is true of volumes and rates, and also of the popularity between the contract and spot markets. For example, truck tonnage fell 4.5% in February following an unexpectedly strong January, when it increased by 1.8%. Is this a trend or just a correction to an over-exuberant previous month? Outbound tender volumes and rejection rates are down in many places throughout the United States this past week. Is it a foreshadowing of a slowdown, or just a brief lull before produce kicks in full swing? Most likely it is the latter, but only time will tell. It is interesting to note that the typical division between contract rates and spot rates is around 85/15, favoring contract rates. In 2020 that split slowly morphed into a 75/25 ratio. The change was due to an erratic shift in supply and demand along with a pronounced driver shortage. According to DAT, "by the end of February 2021, the dry van contract volume index was down 30% y/y while the spot volume index increased 18%." Read the full report Robust Q1 Freight Market Segues Into Produce Season April 6, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. What does a post-pandemic 3PL world look like? An interesting article by Gary Franz last week in DC Velocity addressed this very topic. Choptank President & CEO Geoff Turner points out in the article that carriers are stressed beyond any conditions they have experienced before, dealing with a strict regulatory environment, astronomical insurance premiums, and rising maintenance and fuel costs. “Drivers cost more, and there are fewer of them,” he notes. “Every possible cost scenario is increasing [for carriers]. No way can they operate profitably without passing along these costs to shippers.” The article goes on to say that Turner’s team does its best to explain these realities to shippers. “But they have to realize at the end of the day," Turner says, "that without profitable carriers—and drivers who are adequately compensated for their work and their time—freight will sit on the docks.” Understanding why rates are increasing does not make the situation a less bitter pill for shippers, but they should know that 3PLs like Choptank work diligently to negotiate the best possible rates with carriers on their behalf. _________________________ Heads up to shippers: The Commercial Vehicle Safety Administration (CVSA) road checks are scheduled for May 4-6, so be prepared for some carriers to stay off the road those three days. Give yourself plenty of time to get things off the docks and on their way before the road checks begin. Read the Full Report Shippers Should Secure Capacity Early This Week March 30, 2021 Two prime factors are affecting the freight market this week, causing tightened capacity and inflated spot rates. This Wednesday, March 31, is the end of the quarter, and there is a push to get all freight off the docks and shipped by April 1. There also is a notable increase in port activity in the Eastern half of the United States due to the sustained congestion at West Coast ports. The Savannah market in particular has seen a significant jump in imports and volumes, as well as high rejection rates, in just the last few months. And speaking of ports, the massive container ship that could be seen from space clogging up the works in the Suez Canal, called Never Moving... or oops, Ever Given, has finally been freed, but the damage caused by the delays to the supply chain has yet to be fully realized. When 10% of the world's GDP is hung up by a disruption of this magnitude, there is bound to be an international trickle-down effect. Read the Full Report Seasonal Patterns Begin to Emerge - Happy Spring! March 23, 2021 Freight Market News - Produce & Nursery Freight: Spring is officially here, and we are beginning to see the early signs of nursery and produce freight hitting the market. Although domestic produce numbers are down by 18% year-over-year, imported produce is up 30% year-over-year. No worries, though, domestic produce is seeing increased volumes every week. During the week of March 8, imported produce accounted for 59% of all truckload produce in the United States (mostly from Mexico and South America), whereas only 41% came from within the U.S. These are typical numbers for this time of year because in early July, the imbalance corrects itself with the higher percentage of produce coming from within U.S. borders. In 2020, 69% of all produce was grown here at home. _____________________ Autonomous Trucks: Switching gears (pun intended), the autonomous truck debate continues around how and when driverless trucks will have a viable impact on the industry. A recent Department of Transportation-sponsored study concluded that drivers should not worry about driverless trucks taking away their jobs. The study predicts that long-haul drivers simply will be reassigned to short-haul lanes and will not lose their livelihoods altogether. Others are not so confident. Former DOT Deputy Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy Finch Fulton summed it up in a recent Freightwaves interview, "If you are a trucker today, you will probably be able to retire as a trucker. If you are a younger-than-average trucker today, you can choose to work for a company with a human-centric approach or use autonomous truckers to help augment your own operations. If you are the trucker of tomorrow, you will likely be able to make informed decisions and to choose to be trained for the jobs of tomorrow.”. Read the full report. One Year Later: Blue Skies Ahead? March 16, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, Transport Topics, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, Bloomberg, JOC, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. It is hard not to ruminate over all we've been through the past year with hundreds of thousands in lost lives from the pandemic. This past week marks the anniversary of America's shutdown. One in three people have had a family member or knew someone who died as a result of COVID-19. The toll it has taken on us as human beings is staggering. (And we are not out of the woods yet. This morning's Bloomberg Business reports that there is an 11% uptick in transmission cases of COVID-19 as the U.S. opens back up.) But enough of the doom and gloom. The future is beginning to look much brighter. At the risk of being prematurely optimistic, the days are getting longer and warmer, vaccines are being administered, and Americans are beginning to receive new stimulus money. Along with the first day of spring coming this weekend, many of the crushing regulations brought about by the pandemic are disappearing, almost it seems, as quickly as they were introduced. For the first time in a year, people are feeling palpably hopeful. According to JP Morgan, the United States is on the threshold of the strongest consumer backdrop in decades. Not only is recovery accelerating, it is even set to surpass China's V-shaped recovery curve. “We now expect the U.S. to outpace China, moving on a path that raises GDP well above its pre-crisis trajectory," wrote JP Morgan's economist Bruce Kasman in a February 20 article. What is a U shape, V shape or L shape recovery? Read the full report Late-Winter Freight Lull? Not This Season March 9, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Like the young executive after too many Redbulls, freight demand just keeps going and going. The typical slowdown we expect in January and February simply didn't happen this year. Now, with the first full week of March behind us, there is more freight on the roads than ever before. And so it begs the question: What will happen in a few weeks when produce season kicks in? With capacity already strained from low inventories, packed ports, carriers out of business from the pandemic, and growing manufacturing needs, what can we expect? Most likely, a continuation of what we are currently experiencing--although there may be some relief at the ports as shippers are opting for alternate, less-trafficked ports of call. Also, some shippers are using air cargo when urgency is required, or intermodal when time is less of a factor and avoiding the high costs of over-the-road shipping is a higher priority. Read the full report Capacity Still Bogged Down from Storms' Aftermath March 2, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Whew! What a week. The winter storms that hit much of the country are in the rearview mirror now, but the aftermath of "standing" freight and the ripple effects it had on the supply chain are taking their toll. Spot rates hit record-level numbers last week (although now declining slightly) and rejection rates were high at 27.59 last week slipping only marginally on Sunday to 26.23. Rejection rates are expected to decline further as the week progresses. The strong market is expected to continue through Q1 with consumer spending and sentiment remaining elevated, more stimulus money on the way, and an industrial sector that is ramping back up to pre-pandemic levels. JANUARY STATS AT A GLANCE Contract freight volumes +1% year-over-year Spot volumes +47% year-over-year Combination freight volumes +5% year-over-year (Source: DAT February 17) Read the full report Mean Winter Storms Leave Lingering Effects February 23, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. The aftereffects of the bad weather that befell more than 70% of the United States last week are evident in the the "Trucks in Market" chart below. The red blocks (tight capacity) show just how widespread the disruption was to most markets. The green blocks indicate loose capacity, and there aren't many of them. (Source: Freightwaves) Read the full report Winter Weather Continues Its Assault on U.S. Freight Movement February 16, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Record low temperatures across much of the United States, coupled with extremely dangerous ice storms, have disrupted shipment schedules and put pressure on rates (especially in the reefer market). Ice-coated roads and downed powerlines from Texas to the Ohio Valley caused multiple interstate accidents, power outages and unsafe driving conditions. Another victim of the cold has been the oil industry in Texas, where Motiva, the largest refinery in the United States, has closed due to cold weather-related problems. Others, like ExxonMobile in Beaumont, reportedly have closed as well. This is likely to affect diesel prices which already have been inching up since January. Read the full report February's Icy Temps Cause Temporary but Measurable Disruption February 9, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Winter storms bringing cold temperatures, snow and treacherous driving conditions to the Eastern United States and other areas have been the disrupting force over the past week and most likely will continue to do so into this week with more bad weather ahead. Snow and ice removal at loading docks is fouling up the works and creating delayed deliveries and additional congestion. Read the full report Ports, Trucking and the Economy February 2, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief are collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. Port News Volumes soared this past week at the two largest ports on the West Coast, Los Angeles and Ontario, rising more than 7.5% over the previous week, adding to the chaos and congestions. It isn't just West Coast ports that are bursting at the seams, either. On the East Coast, Savannah, Georgia, and Elizabeth, New Jersey, also are seeing heavy activity, as well as New Orleans. All that freight will be trickling down into the truckload market over the next few weeks and months, keeping volumes elevated and capacity tight. VIDEO - International Cargo Vessel Breaks in Half Read the full report What a Week! January 26, 2021 The Choptank Weekly Market Brief is offered exclusively to Choptank Transport customers to provide accurate, timely and relevant freight market information. The contents of this brief is collected from reputable sources including DAT, Freightwaves/Sonar, Truckstop.com, Department of Labor, Department of Transportation, and other sources as cited throughout the brief. What a week, indeed! With the nation's inauguration behind us, a sudden COVID-19 outbreak at the ports, and a rapidly changing freight market, it has been anything but your conventional January week in the supply chain. The Chinese New Year is fast approaching. It is three weeks later this year than last. Beginning February 11-17, 2021 it is a time when millions of city dwellers leave their factory jobs (which shut down) to visit their families and celebrate the holiday in rural China. Read the full report Freight Bid Season is Here: How is it Trending? January 19, 2021 Freightwaves predicted in late 2020 that truckload freight rates for shippers would go up as much as 10% this year. Well, the contract bid season is upon us and rates are increasing to catch up with the spot market, which is putting downward pressure on the spot rates. Rejection rates are taking a breather and have flattened out at 22.59%, creating a loosening of capacity compared with rejections just a few weeks ago. According to Freightwaves, this is more related to contract re-bids and not due to additional equipment being added to the market or any sharp decline in volumes. All in all, we are still expecting a strong market this year. Read the full report Outlook Positive for 2021, Say Experts January 12, 2021 Can we all just breathe a sigh of relief at the passing of 2020? Is the uncertainty of the market behind us? Not quite yet—but according to industry experts, the first half of 2021 is looking good and the industry is facing a positive outlook for shippers. And it isn't just wishful thinking. There are reasons backing the forecast: Read the Full Report Week One of 2021 January 5, 2021 Looking at the data for the first week of January is like waiting at the end of a drumroll before a big announcement. Will post-holiday volumes return strong this week or just how will the freight market set sail in 2021 for shippers? There are several strong indications that a healthy and robust first quarter will be on tap, the first sign being that retail inventory levels were super low coming out of Q3. Read the full report. The U.S. Logistics Market 2020 Recap & Outlook for Shippers Dec. 29, 2020 This past year also reinforced the idea that relationships in the supply chain are monumentally important. Long-term connections that encourage respect and provide driver-friendly conditions have as much to do with a successful logistics plan as the important data that goes into every transaction. How robust will 2021’s freight market be for shippers? That will depend on a recovering economy, which will depend on the success and quick distribution of the vaccine. So far, it looks promising and analysts are forecasting economic growth in 2021. Read the full report. Wrapping up the Year Bring it on, 2021! Dec. 22, 2020 In less than two weeks, we begin a new year and bid farewell to a disruptive 2020. The virus has changed our lives, and already, we have become nostalgic for the pre-pandemic world. We search for headlines that mention when and how we expect to get back to "normal." Everything is different. The way we gather (or don't) for holidays, weddings, birthdays and entertainment. The way we work. The way we consume, and yes, the way shippers schedule and move their freight. Read the full report. Peak Holiday Season - Round Two Spot Market to Tighten by Week's End Dec. 15, 2020 If there is one thing we can say about this year's holiday season it is this: It marks the only time since the beginning of the pandemic that we can look at historical data as a predictive analytic. As Tony Soprano would say about the first three quarters, "Fuggedaboutit!" They were distinct outliers in terms of anything the industry had seen before and unreliable as reference data, but this Thanksgiving and Christmas seem to be following the familiar pattern of years past (although much higher volumes). Read the full report. Volumes Rebound after Holiday as Consumer Sentiment Remains High Dec. 8, 2020 There are only three more weeks before Christmas and it is hard to predict what will happen after the holidays in regards to volume, capacity and rates. We are already seeing volumes snap back after Thanksgiving and they are expected to remain strong through Christmas. Read the full report. Volumes Dip but Rates Increase? Yes, it's True Dec. 1, 2020 The push to get last-minute freight out the door before Thanksgiving caused overall rates to go up slightly, even though volumes were down. Freight volumes and outbound tender rejections typically take a swan dive once a holiday hits and this Thanksgiving was no exception. But don't let that holiday dip in volume fool you. Freight that didn't make it out the door before turkey day is now on loading docks ready to roll out this week. The same above-average volume we saw before Thanksgiving is likely to continue with a new push for Christmas and other holiday freight until the end of the year. Read the full report. Now more than ever, you should PAY ATTENTION TO THE MARKET Nov. 24, 2020 Happy Thanksgiving week! Freight volumes and rejection rates are making history this week with record high numbers. Spot rates are also at an all-time high and are expected to rise over the next few weeks. Truckers are trying to head home for the holidays and capacity is tight. Now is the time to watch for those few lanes where capacity may be temporarily loose and take advantage of rates in those areas when you can. Read the full report. Spot Demand Falls but Carriers Still Control; Rates & Vaccines Appear Near Nov 17, 2020 It makes no difference if you are watching the contract or spot market, volumes and rates this peak season have been on an upward trajectory and regardless of a dip last week in volumes, experts anticipate a strong finish to the year. This past week van capacity in the contract market has tightened on the East coast, but there are areas where rejection rates dropped slightly in the Midwest and Southwest. Reefer rejection rates, on the other hand, have hit some remarkable high numbers. Yesterday, 79.26% of all reefer freight moving from Kansas City to Little Rock was being rejected. Read the full report. Up Up Up - Volume, Spending, Rejection Rates, and Consumer Confidence Nov 10, 2020 Here we are, now officially in peak season for the holidays. Since the onset of the pandemic, consumers have learned that shipping lead-times are not what they used to be pre-COVID-19, even with Amazon Prime. Add in a projected $190 billion from e-commerce holiday sales alone, and things could get seriously dicey. Read the full report. Election Day 2020 As Unpredictable as This Year's Freight Market Nov 3, 2020 It is election day, and supply chain professionals are casting their votes for the candidate they think will have the most positive impact on issues affecting our industry such as trade, infrastructure, taxes, deregulation, employment and the economy. Just like the freight market this year, the election outcome is hard to predict. Read the full report. Capacity Loosens, but for how Long? October 27, 2020 Shippers have become accustomed to tight capacity and higher rates over the last few months. Many have changed their strategy from trying to get costs down to simply securing capacity. There is no denying it has been tough on everyone's bottom line, but this week there is some good news to share. Read the full report. An Uneven Freight Market Shows Signs of Flattening October 20, 2020 Over the last several months we have witnessed outbound tender volumes that are extremely high compared to last year and outbound tender rejection rates equally astounding. Why then, are overall U.S. freight volumes down 3% year-over-year? Read the full report. Watch for Opportunities in the Market & Extend Lead Times October 13, 2020 Last week's market brief talked about the strong freight market and what that means for shippers. As a follow up, the Choptank blog last Friday offered some expert advice on how to deal with the current issues surrounding rising rates and short capacity. If you missed it, you can read it here. Read the full report. A Strong Freight Market and What it Means for Shippers October 6, 2020 A "strong" freight market means the industry is experiencing extremely high shipping volumes. Normally that is a sign of a burgeoning economy and should be good news for shippers, however, there is a thorn in the side of the current situation--the same thorn that bedeviled the industry in 2018. I am talking about the growing capacity shortage. Demand has far outgrown the truck supply and contract and spot rates are out of wack. Read the full report. Tight Reefer Capacity Throughout the Country Sept 29, 2020 October is a pivotal month to watch since it can be an indicator of a strengthening or weakening market for the fourth quarter. In 2018, October volumes were subtly higher at the end of the month than in the beginning, however in 2019, volumes lost steam throughout the month, ending a bit lower than the month started. As crazily unpredictable as this year has been with disruptions caused by COVID-19, major changes in consumer's buying habits, and multiple weather and fire events, it is unclear what "peak" season will look like. Read the full report. Strong Market, Strong Upward Pressure on Rates and Capacity Continues Sept 22, 2020 Happy first day of Autumn! A snapshot of this week's freight market shows widespread high freight volumes throughout the country and the continuation of high rates on the spot market. The national outbound tender volume index (OTVI) has leveled off some, but like outbound tender rejection rates, it is also high compared to last year... 50 percent higher than the last two years to be exact. There are no signs of volumes dropping significantly (which would need to happen before we see rejection rates and tight capacity pricing normalize). Read the full report. The Seasons are Changing: Is the Market? Sept 15, 2020 There are rumblings that the market may be turning towards a slight correction. On Friday we saw the first dip in tender rejection rates in weeks, but hold on, other indicators contradict that notion. With an election year and the possibility of another stimulus check, it is anybody's guess. Over the last several weeks, a lot of volume has come out of the West Coast, with carriers flocking to the best rates, leaving the East Coast suddenly high and dry. Tender rejections in California, Nevada and Arizona have flattened some while the Northeast is suffering from extremely tight capacity. Virginia to Maine had the highest rejection rates in the U.S. on Friday at 27%. Carriers, come back! Read the full report. Capacity Tight, Rates Remain Up September 8, 2020 As the saying goes, what goes up must come down, but not just yet in the freight market. Capacity remains tight in the United States, declining to a 22-month low while rates are still moving upward. Truck pricing on the spot market reached a 19-month high last week. Spot rates have increased 30% year over year and with the holiday season just ahead, capacity is expected to remain tight throughout the end of 2020. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief September 2, 2020 The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) is holding steady at unprecedented high levels, affecting just about everyone in the industry. Shippers who have relied on contract rates are now finding that their 'secured' carriers are heading for greener pastures on the spot market where carrier rates are more favorable. Since May, 2020, the OTRI has surpassed even 2018 numbers when the bull market was in full swing, driving rates higher and further choking capacity. Choptank's latest integration with Blue Yonder is helping combat some of this tight market. Choptank now can offer a dynamic price discovery solution to its pipeline of customers, providing an even larger carrier base for its shippers. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief August 25, 2020 Storms and Roadchecks Weather conditions looming off the coast of the United States may be a factor affecting the market this week. Marco was a bust, thank goodness, reaching a Category 1 hurricane status before hitting landfall, but then quickly dissipating into little more than some heavy rainfall and manageable wind conditions. Tropical Storm Laura, on the other hand, is only a few days behind Marco and is showing signs of being a bigger threat. Predicted to be a Category 2 hurricane, it is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Texas-Louisiana coastline by Wednesday. If there is a lot of damage from the storm, it has the potential to pull capacity from the market for recovery and rebuilding efforts. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief August 18, 2020 In early July one industry headline stated, "Current Volume Level is Likely Unsustainable," but as we now know, it has been more than just sustainable. Freight volumes are still on an upward trajectory and surprising the experts week over week. As a result, capacity is under pressure and carrier pricing has been steadily rising. Volumes have surpassed both 2019 and 2018 at this time of year by between 20% - 25%. According to data from Freightwaves, one in every five loads is being rejected, so don't be surprised this week if you continue to experience limited truck availability. With the holidays soon approaching, the typical slowdown this time of year may never happen. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief August 11, 2020 The hurricane didn't cause as much damage relative to others in the past, but it did not help an already volatile market as rates are still increasing and capacity is still very scarce. Each week the volume and tender rejects seems to find new heights. The numbers also show that seasonality is out the window as we continue to venture into unknown market territory. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief August 4, 2020 The big news this week is twofold. First is the arrival of tropical storm Isaias, (a name only The Weather Channel announcers can pronounce) which is now officially a hurricane. Some of the heaviest freight volume this week is along the East Coast corridor, directly in the storm's path, so expect possible delays and disruptions due to high winds, excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Also of note this week is the amount of freight volume in the market. Capacity is tightening with outbound tender rejection rates hitting an all-time high for 2020. Talk about a volatile market! Just five months ago in March we saw historically low truck rates and now, rates are hitting historical highs (see the DHL Power Pricing Index below). The third quarter is traditionally a time of slow down in the market, but this year we have seen a long and steady rise. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief July 28, 2020 This week's freight market is reaffirming what we already know from the last several months--this is no typical year in the supply chain. Historically speaking, mid-July is the month we should start seeing volumes drop with pricing following like a faithful canine. But with this year's upset due to the pandemic, volumes are still holding strong in many areas, and what comes next is anybody's guess. California has remained a strong market over the last month, and this week we are seeing spikes in both the Ontario and Sacramento where there is extremely tight truck capacity. Other markets showing capacity issues this week are Harrisburg and Allentown, Pennsylvania. Both of these markets are in the top five highest increases in the country, week-over-week, for tender rejection rates. Also of note is the Denver market, which is exhibiting some of the most rapidly softening conditions. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief July 21, 2020 Now that DOT week is behind us and some produce areas are slowing down, capacity has loosened up. We are still experiencing heavy volume pockets around the country, such as California, (Los Angeles and Fresno in particular) and Texas,(Houston and Ft. Worth), while other places like Jacksonville, Florida and Savannah, GA are showing strong volume decreases. One of the factors we watch to evaluate the freight market is the manufacturing sector. A recent Empire State Manufacturing Index survey shows that New York and Pennsylvania manufacturers have seen positive numbers for the first time since the start of the pandemic. (See graph below). Although it is not necessarily indicative of the whole country, it is a bit of good news in an uncertain economy. Read the full report. Weekly Market Brief July 14, 2020 63,200 individuals in the United States tested positive for COVID-19 in a single day just last Thursday. That is a record. Since the rise in infections are mostly in southern states such as Texas, Georgia, Arizona, and Florida, panic-buying is returning and capacity is tightening in these areas. Adding even more stress to the market is this week's arrival of the annual DOT road inspections. Read the full report. Weekly market updates help you identify areas where freight capacity is tight as well as areas that are loose and easier to cover. This helps you better understand the market and provides a basis for your pricing. Choptank Transport: Market Report Apr/May 2020 Like the famous words of Captain James T. Kirk, we are boldly going “where no man has gone before,” and I am not talking about the outermost regions of space. I am talking about right here on terra firma. Sure, we’ve had plagues and pandemics before, but never with the population, economy, and intricate network of transportation and travel that we have in the 21st century. It is a brave new world, alright, and we are scrambling to adapt and adopt. Luckily, adversity is the mother of invention, and it is evident in the way we as humans are adapting to the global pandemic. Shippers who are lucky enough to be manufacturing are facing serious challenges, such as working with reduced staff, dealing with volatility in order patterns, finding a need for alternate sourcing, and navigating around unclear government regulations that differ from state to state. Despite the chaos, freight keeps moving, and shippers are finding new and sometimes better ways to get the job done. Read the Market Report here. Download Apr/May Market Report Choptank Transport Market Report: Q1 2020 Looking at the freight market in Q1 of 2020 is much like watching the new season of Ozark on Netflix; it first requires a brief look at what came before. My personal binge-watching policy dictates that before diving into a new season, I do a quick recap of the last two episodes to get the full impact of what is going on now. So, let’s review what was happening in Q4 of 2019 in the freight industry. Everyone summed up the year by comparing it to the bull market of 2018, with slight resignation but hopefulness. The overriding sentiment was that even though the market in 2019 paled in comparison to the previous year, the industry was still experiencing growth, and we had 2020 to catch up. Read the full report ... Choptank Transport Market Report Q4 Year End Record truck orders and record freight volumes in 2018 served as the backdrop for a significant correction to the market in 2019. The year began with a plethora of trucks and freight volumes underperforming expectations. It is estimated that there are approximately 75,000 more tractors available than there is freight to fill them.1 Shipments became easier to cover, and as a result, carrier rates were historically low. Even though economic growth continued in an upward trajectory, it was at a much slower pace than the previous year and not enough to compensate for the overabundance of equipment. Read the full report ... Choptank Transport Market Report Q3 The freight market is notorious for having a life of its own, but the difference between 2018 and 2019 was an eyebrow-raiser for sure. Industry experts say the 2018 spikes in volume were higher, and the declines more rapid, than ever before. In Q3, we saw what appears to be the beginning of a correction to the market, a good sign for the industry. The beginning of Q3 initially looked dismal with loose capacity, tender rejection at an all-time low, and freight volume significantly down from last year. It was good news for shippers who were pleased with high tender acceptance rates. Finding trucks was easy, and pricing was significantly down from 2018. On the flip side, less demand and not moving as much freight mean less business growth for shippers. Read the full market report ... Choptank Market Report Q2 Update The transportation market has been like a yo-yo over the last year and at the end of Q2 there are signs of an uptick in volume, but rates are still low and capacity is still good in most areas. Read our report to learn the latest. Read more ... Choptank Transport Market Report Q2 According to economists and supply chain experts, this year's freight market will be nothing like last year. The further we get into 2019, the more forecasters are adjusting their predictions for economic growth, expecting less than originally stated. Read more ... Market Report Q1 2018 After coming down off the bull market of 2018 when unparalleled economic growth resulted in record-high rates and short capacity, January may have been a disappointment for some. Lower than last year's record success, the manufacturing sector is experiencing a steady 3% growth rate, year-over-year at present. That might sound disheartening, but keep in mind, this is the traditional “slow" time of the freight year and it is still growth. If you’re worried about our economy, take notice of other countries, like Europe, who are seeing a much more drastic decline in economic prosperity with Brexit looming and tariffs of their own to worry about. The truth is, the whole global economy is slowing down. read more and download below! JAN/FEB Market Report Choptank Transport Market Report 2018 in Review By Brian Fox | Dec 2018 A lot has happened in the world of transportation and logistics in 2018. This could be a novel about all the things that happened in 2018 and the many predictions for 2019. Above all of the headlines, though, we have lived through the strongest year for spot and contract pricing increases in the history of trucking in the U.S. 25% increases in the spot market rate, 30 percent in dry van and reefer, and spot market rate increases of over 25 percent in flatbed; which were followed by contract rate increases of over 15 percent in all three modes! All that data could point to another turbulent and soaring market in 2019. However, and lucky us, there is a mountain of data to dig into and the picture becomes clearer after some good analysis. Read more and download below! 2018 Review Report "It's a quest... a quest for fun!" By Brian Fox | Oct/Nov 2018 If you like roller coasters, and you handle them better than John Candy (the Wally World security guard), you might be enjoying this market! The highs and lows have been staggering over the last several months and I think we’re all in the mood for some stability and a balanced market where we’re all happy and having fun. Say what you will about Clark Griswold in the infamous National Lampoon films, but he truly loved his family and just wanted to show them an epically good time and a memorable trip! Depending on which role you fill in the supply chain, from shipper to broker to carrier, you’ve felt your share of “disasters” to your budget the last couple years. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! Read the full report ... OCT/NOV Market Report Logistics Moves Pretty Fast By Brian Fox | Aug/Sep 2018 “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” — Ferris. The iconic picture of these two looking at the Ferrari careening down the hill might describe the shock you are feeling as the market pivoted sharply this past month. Of course, it depends on which side you are on as to whether you have a smile or a frown! Just as “Ferris Bueller’s Day Off” enjoys a resurgence after 30 years we are reminded, once again, of how things are cyclical and we should be anything but shocked by the market’s volatility. Studying truckstop.com’s MDI report, history shows that rates are following a trend by softening this time of year, but the drop has been bigger than expected. It is also the same time that mother nature visited last year and gave us a big push into this current, chaotic market, so, it’s no time to take your eye off the ball and a great time to secure a good partner to make sure capacity is available for the upcoming months. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! Making a market forecast can be as unpredictable as Ferris’ next scheme, but certain factors can help give us guidance. After last year we all experienced the power of Mother Nature...download for the rest of the story: AUG/SEP Market Report Jaws 5 & the Freight Market By Brian Fox | Jun/Jul 2018 As we head into the summer on a wave of record-high MDI we have the sense of uneasiness with the market and what might be lurking around the corner, or in this metaphor, below. Much like the great original summer blockbuster Jaws, (which was released 43 years ago, sorry to make you feel old), the movie, like the current market, gives participants an “edge of your seat” scare as you don’t know what will happen next. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! Many variables shift and drive the market each month. Government regulations, weather, seasonal shipping, the economy and the number of available trucks are the biggest factors that contribute to volatile rates. Any of those factors could be “Jaws” in this scenario...download for the rest of the story: JUN/JUL Market Report Back to the Future & How to Beat Biff? By Brian Fox | Apr/May 2018 The first quarter of 2018 was like a young George McFly sitting in the car before the dance; scary, unpredictable and a foreboding presence hovering over him. Recently, it looks to be working out with the spot market softening and rates inching back down. Many think this should continue short term. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! Whether it was 2014 or just last year, we’ve seen this type of market before. As George Santayana famously said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Many variables shift and drive the market...download for the rest of the story: APR/MAY Market Report Where are rates headed in 2018? By Brian Fox | Feb/Mar 2018 The second half of 2017, and its impact on this market has been chronicled ad nauseam. We now have many competing forces and variables at play with almost as many opinions on where the market will go from here. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! Shippers were paying premium rates as the strong surge in business that began last year . ...download for the rest of the story: FEB/MAR Market Report New Year, New Market? By Brian Fox | January 2018 Looks like we’re trading 2017 Hurricanes for winter cyclones and a Polar Vortex. A historically high MDI will stay high with this weather being the driving force. A resurgent economy, a long-awaited infrastructure proposal and new tax cuts will help ease the pain of these higher rates. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! ...download for the rest of the story: January Market Report Is it a “Trump Bump”, ELD’s, Hurricane Hangover, all of the above? By Brian Fox | December 2017 We know President Trump thinks he is driving the economy, but regardless if you agree, the economy and all the other factors swirling around our market will keep this roller coaster going for some time. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! A stronger economy has been pushing more loads into the marketplace, and after a record-breaking...download for the rest of the story: December Market Report Is this the perfect storm to drive down capacity and drive up rates? By Brian Fox | November 2017 No, but it’s certainly a turbulent and volatile market right now. Here is a brief market overview and report on all the factors driving the current market, our expectations for where it’s headed, and most importantly, how to manage this market and come out on top! A stronger economy has been pushing more loads into the marketplace while capacity has been shrinking with fewer drivers on the road. As this was a slower, smaller storm front, Mother Nature intervened with much bigger...download for the rest of the story: November Market Report SHIP IT. NOW. Subscribe to our Weekly Market Brief: Email* First Name* Last Name* Company Name* Toll Free: 800.568.2240 Maryland • Colorado Florida • Georgia • Texas Request a Quote Contact ©2021 Choptank Transport All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy Website Design by Lure Creative