Market Commentary Afternoon Market Recap for November 24 2021 If you buy a call, are you in or out of the market? Morning Market Review for November 24, 2021 Afternoon Market Recap for November 23, 2021 It’s decision time for hedgers Farm Progress Commentary Afternoon Market Recap for November 24 2021 Corn, soybeans and wheat stumbled Wednesday but remain in relatively good shape Grain prices tested overnight gains but were unable to hold onto them as traders shifted to a round of technical selling and profit-taking ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Most of today’s drops were modest, although Chicago SRW contracts incurred losses that exceeded 1.5% after climbing to nine-year highs earlier this week. The eastern Corn Belt will see some periods of rain and snow between Thursday and Sunday, while areas farther west won’t gather any measurable moisture, according to the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s 8-to-14-day outlook predicts near-normal precipitation levels for most of the central U.S. between December 1 and December 7, with widespread warmer-than-normal conditions during this time. On Wall St., the Dow dropped 74 points in afternoon trading to 35,739, fueled by losses from Gap, Nordstrom and other traditional retailers that have seen worse-than-expected quarterly results. On the brighter side, jobless claims fell to historically low levels of 199,000, and GDP during 3Q increased 2.1%. Energy prices mostly trended lower. Crude oil slipped 0.25% but stayed above $78 per barrel. Gasoline dropped nearly 0.75%, while diesel inched fractionally higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately. On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+4,500), soyoil (+3,500) and CBOT wheat (+7,000) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-1,000) and soymeal (-5,500). NOTE: Grain markets are closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving and will reopen for a shortened session on Friday that runs from 8:30 a.m. to 12:05 p.m. CST. Farm Futures, in turn, will also be closed on Thursday and will return for our regular morning and afternoon newsletter content on Friday. Please enjoy a safe, happy holiday! Corn Corn prices edged lower on some technical selling and fund liquidation, but losses were minimal after a flash sale to Mexico was announced this morning. December futures slipped 1.25 cents to $5.7925, with March futures down 3.25 cents to $5.85. Corn basis bids tracked 2 to 5 cents higher at two Midwestern ethanol plants and firmed 4 cents at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Wednesday. Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 3.9 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1. Ahead of Friday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 31.5 million and 61.0 million bushels for the week ending November 18. Ethanol production improved to a daily average of 1.079 million barrels in the week through November 19. That’s up from 1.060 million barrels per day a week ago. It also marks the seventh consecutive week that production exceeded the 1-million-barrel benchmark. Stocks firmed slightly, moving to 20.164 million barrels. EIA also recently reported the average U.S. price for regular-grade gasoline through November 22 was $3.395 per gallon, trending 4 cents lower week-over-week. Gas prices have largely stabilized over the past month but ae still up nearly $1.30 per gallon from a year ago. EIA’s latest data for average on-highway diesel fuel prices through November 22 was at $3.724 per gallon, trending a penny lower from a week ago but still up more than $1.26 per gallon at this time last year. “If you have open hedges with December futures or hedge-to-arrive contracts, it’s gut check time to decide whether - or how - to fish or cut bait with unpriced inventory,” advises grain market analyst Bryce Knorr in a recent Ag Marketing IQ blog. Knorr walks through a few critical considerations - click here to learn more. South Korean importers closed on two deals to purchase a total of 5.3 million bushels of animal feed corn, which was likely sourced from South America or South Africa. The grain is for arrival beginning in March. Preliminary volume estimates were for 549,072 contracts, climbing substantially above Tuesday’s final count of 355,458. Soybeans Soybean prices ultimately followed corn lower with losses of around 0.5% after falling victim to some technical selling and profit-taking today, despite testing moderate gains at times this morning. January futures dropped 7.5 cents to $12.6550, with March futures down 8.5 cents to $12.76. Soybean basis bids firmed 4 cents at an Ohio elevator and an Illinois river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the Midwest on Wednesday. Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 12.1 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began September 1. Private exports also announced the sale of 30,000 metric tons of soyoil for delivery to India during the 2021/22 marketing year, which began October 1. Ahead of the next export report from USDA, out Friday morning, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales ranging between 33.1 million and 68.0 million bushels for the week ending November 18. Analysts also think USDA will report soymeal sales ranging between 100,000 and 370,000 metric tons, plus another 5,000 to 70,000 MT of soyoil sales. Citing expected reductions to soybean demand from China, USDA-ERS lowered its forecasts for total U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 2022 by $2.0 billion, sliding to $175.5 billion. Soybean exports spilled $3.9 billion lower, to $28.4 billion, while soymeal export estimates dropped $800 million to $4.9 billion. China’s total agricultural purchases are still expected to reach $36.0 billion next year, a record if realized. USDA is also projecting export increases for livestock, poultry, dairy, cotton and ethanol. Preliminary volume estimates were for 116,250 contracts, inching slightly ahead of Tuesday’s final count of 115,543. Wheat Wheat prices wobbled and closed Wednesday’s session with strikingly different results. Chicago SRW contracts faced major cuts, with December futures tumbling 16.25 cents to $8.3975. Kansas City HRW contracts saw more moderate losses, with December futures dropping 4.75 cents to $8.74. MGEX spring wheat contracts bucked that downward trend, meantime, with December futures firming 3.25 cents to $10.4150. Dry weather in the Plains could be cause for concern moving forward for winter wheat. The U.S. Drought Monitor reports 79.6% of the region is experiencing some level of drought through November 16. That’s down from 96.0% a year ago but remains at high enough levels that winter wheat quality could struggle without some replenishing rains and snows this winter. USDA reported Monday 44% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition. Ahead of Friday morning’s weekly export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales ranging between 9.2 million and 21.3 million bushels for the week ending November 18. Russia’s 2021 wheat harvest has totaled 2.888 billion bushels across 68.695 million acres so far, per the latest data from the country’s agriculture ministry. Harvest pace is lagging 3.8% behind 2020. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter. The Philippines purchased 3.7 million bushels of animal feed wheat in an international tender that recently closed. The grain was likely sourced from Australia and is for shipment in February and March. Preliminary volume estimates were for 152,977 CBOT contracts, jumping moderately ahead of Tuesday’s final count of 101,918. Settlement Prices for Key Commodities High Low Last Change Corn cents/bu 21-Dec 589 575.5 579.75 -1.25 22-Mar 596.75 583.25 585.5 -3.25 Soybeans 22-Jan 1281 1263.25 1266.5 -7.5 22-Mar 1292 1274.25 1277.25 -8.5 Soymeal $/ton 22-Jan 357.7 349.5 350.9 -4.6 Soyoil cents/lb 22-Jan 61.98 59.96 60.7 0.53 Wheat $/bushel 21-Dec 863.25 833.5 836.75 -16.25 22-Mar 874.75 847 850.25 -15.25 KC Wheat 21-Dec 887.25 865.75 873.25 -4.75 22-Mar 892.25 870.75 877 -7.25 MPLS Wheat 21-Dec 1047.75 1027.5 1036.75 3.25 22-Mar 1056.5 1035 1045 3.75 Live Cattle cents/lb 21-Dec 137.975 136 137.775 2.375 Feeder Cattle cents/lb 22-Mar 167.95 165.45 167.95 2.275 Lean Hogs cents/lb 22-Feb 84.475 83.325 84.35 1.075 Crude Oil $/barrel *Energy prices may not represent final settlements 21-Dec 79.23 77.98 78.26 -0.24 Diesel 21-Dec 2.4059 2.3749 2.3811 -0.0032 Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon 21-Dec 2.3429 2.3047 2.3165 -0.0207 Natural Gas 22-Jan 5.205 4.945 5.123 0.088 Ethanol Futures 22-Jan 2.137 U.S. Dollar Index 21-Dec 96.94 96.44 96.86 0.366 Gold $/ounce 21-Dec 1796.2 1777.4 1781.5 -2 Copper 21-Nov 4.4595 4.3935 4.458 0.0345 Fertilizer Swaps (as of 11/19) DAP Tampa-index 740.0 0 DAP-New Orleans 804.7 11 Urea-New Orleans 890.7 9 Urea-Middle East 945.0 20 Urea-Black Sea 910.0 20 UAN (32%) New Orleans 617.3 0 Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. 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MGEX SPRING WHEAT KCBT RED WHEAT WHEAT MGEX Spring Wheat - Dec 21 Dec 21 (MWZ21) Market Open 10.3675s Change Last Trade 11/24/21 Volume 0 Open Interest 7874 Prior Settle 10.3675 Day Low Day High OPEN 30 Day Low 30 Day High 9.9900 10.8650 LAST 10.3675s Contract Low Contract High 5.6200 10.8650 LAST 10.3675s DAY WEEK MONTH YEAR 10/25 11/01 11/08 11/15 11/22 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.8 Latest MGEX Spring Wheat News Vietnam to eliminate U.S. wheat import tariff Fall-planted winter field peas tested for Panhand… Climate toolkit for Northern Plains available Agriculture Market MGEX Spring Wheat KCBT Red Wheat Wheat Corn Soybeans Soybean Oil Oats Canola Live Cattle Feeder Cattle MGEX Spring Wheat Contract High Low Last Change Time Dec 21 (MWZ21) 10.3675s 11/24/21 Mar 22 (MWH22) 10.4500s 11/24/21 May 22 (MWK22) 10.3675s 11/24/21 Jul 22 (MWN22) 10.0975s 11/24/21 Sep 22 (MWU22) 9.4425s 11/24/21 Dec 22 (MWZ22) 9.3500s 11/24/21 Data provided by Bushel All prices delayed 10 minutes. 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