How close can it get? - - Closest Point of Approach - - | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive | You have seen the by the National Hurricane Center issued three day forecast of the path of a hurricane, and you are wondering just "how close it can get". With this interactive program you can quickly determine an approximation of the closest point of approach of the eye of the storm to your island. Just select your island (or if your island is not listed enter your coordinates) and three day forecast, consisting of the latitude and longitude pairs of the forecast and click on 'Show me how close it can get...'. You can use the U.S. Gazetteer to find latitude/longitude coordinates for US cities and zipcodes and zipcodes or the Astrodienst-website for World-wide queries (results have to be converted from dd:mm:ss-format). A related tool on this website (How close is it?) calculates how far the storm is right now and how long before you might experience strong winds. Caution: Remember that forecasts are 'just' forecasts. The exact path of a hurricane is very hard to predict, so the uncertainties are large, especially for the 48 and 72 hour positions. Also, do not focus on just the eye of the storm. The windfield of hurricanes can be huge, so although that it seems that the eye of the storm stays quite far away from you, the winds don't need to. More important the torrential rainfall normally associated with tropical systems can cover large areas and can cause flooding and mudslides. In fact, most fatalities associated with hurricanes are attributed to the rainfall, not the windforce itself. So be sure to look at the whole picture! For people living in threatened areas of the United States, I have compiled a list with the latitude/longitude coordinates of many of the cities along the East Coast. The latitude/longitude can then be entered in the 'Or enter your Coordinates' section. See here (pop-up). By the way, New York is at 40.7N, 73.9W and Washington, DC is at 38.9N, 77.0W. Stay safe! -Gert Currently Tracking: - Hurricane Joaquin - Latest Advisory: 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 [view] Select your Island: Anguilla Antigua Aruba Bahamas: Abaco Bahamas: Bimini Bahamas: Cat Island Bahamas: Eleuthera Bahamas: Exuma Bahamas: Grand Bahama Bahamas: Inagua Bahamas: Nassau Bahamas: San Salvador Barbados Barbuda Belize: Ambergris Caye Bermuda Bonaire Cayman Islands: Cayman Brac Cayman Islands: Grand Cayman Cayman Islands: Little Cayman Cuba: Guantanamo Bay Cuba: Habana Culebra Curacao Dominica Dominican Republic: Puerta Plata I. Dominican Republic: Punta Cana Dominican Republic: Santa Domingo Grenada Guadeloupe Haiti: Port au Prince Honduras: Guanaja Honduras: Roatan Jamaica: Kingston Jamaica: Montego Bay Key West, USA Martinique Mexico: Cancun Mexico: Cozumel Montserrat Nevis Puerto Rico: Mayaguez Puerto Rico: San Juan Saba St.Barths St.Croix St.Eustatius St.John St.Kitts St.Lucia St.Maarten/St.Martin St.Thomas St.Vincent Tobago Tortola Trinidad Turks & Caicos: Grand Turk Turks & Caicos: Provo Turks & Caicos: South Caicos Vieques Enter Five Day Forecast: Current Position: N S E W 12 hours: N S E W 24 hours: N S E W 36 hours: N S E W 48 hours: N S E W 72 hours: N S E W 96 hours: N S E W 120 hours: N S E W Or enter your Coordinates: Lat: N S Lon: E W Generate Map Help? The three day forecast is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion product. It is issued by the National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center and linked directly from the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator (QHWRN). Lat/Lon should be entered in decimal degrees, not in the dd:mm:ss-format, so: 18.5, not: 18:30:00. Valid range: latitude 0-90 degrees, longitude: 0-180 degrees. When numbers are entered in the 'Or enter your Coordinates' box, the island selection is ignored. The coordinates for the islands are based on the corresponding National Weather Service weather stations. The closest point of approach is defined as the shortest (great circle) distance between the location of interest and the loxodrome (rhumb line) defined by two forecast points. The algorithm and code for the great circle distance calculation was provided by the National Geodetic Survey using GRS80/WGS84 as the reference ellipsoid. | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive |