Caribbean Hurricane Network - Updates from the Islands - | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive | 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season | Ana | Bill | Claudette | Danny | Erika | Fred | Grace | Henri | Ida | Joaquin | Kate | Larry | Mindy | Nicholas | Odette | Peter | Rose | Sam | Teresa | Victor | Wanda | Active Tropical Systems: Hurricane Joaquin Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 - November 30 GOES Satellite - Zoomed in on the Caribbean (13:45 UTC, 51 minutes ago) Vertical gridlines 10° or about 650 miles (~1050 km) apart. [more satellite imagery]. Joaquin tools: distance | closest point | advisories | 3/5 day cone | models | image and loop | mySat 90L Invest: satellite images (Navy/NRL) | model track: sfwmd.gov -or- ral.ucar.edu (+ intensity ) Tweet Consider this... Did you know that this all volunteer website depends on donations from visitors like you? I need them to cover the expenses I incur by running the Caribbean Hurricane Network. So if you love this unique website featuring original content, and you don't want it to disappear, you can show your support by visiting the donations webpage. Any amount helps! Thank you so much! -Gert I am always looking for more hurricane correspondents! See below. Update: The Closest Point of Approach tool can be used with cities on the US East coast as well. Thursday, October 1, 2015 08:37AM PDT - Waaah, Joaquin From the latest advisory: ...EYE OF JOAQUIN PASSING OVER SAMANA CAYS IN THE BAHAMAS... ...CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT..., not something I wanted to see! The turn north didn't pan out as quickly as expected, but it will! It got a lot closer to the Bahamas than earlier forecasted, and it will even get a bit closer! In 12 hours Joaquin should turn sharply. So you see again, do not look just at the forecasted track, but at the whole picture. The cone of uncertainty is your friend! Joaquin now a major hurricane, and it is expected to get even stronger, a Cat.4, getting energy from the warm Gulf Stream. Adding to this is that Joaquin is nearly stationary. So it is not looking good right now for the Bahamas. Esp. Samana Cay (located just north of Crooked Island), Crooked Island, Acklins Island, Long Island, San Salvador, Eleuthera, etc. A nice map has been posted by Esther on the Bahamas updates page. Also, the Turks and Caicos Islands are getting slammed right now as well, but they are a bit further away from the center. The only positive I see is that the strongest winds are on the Eastern side. But the low lying Bahamas will have to deal with storm surge and rainfall, esp. since Joaquin is moving so slowly. It will not be until about 2 days before Joaquin is out of the area! Use the tools above, like the Closest Point of Apprach calculator with satellite image overlay to see the size of the storm, to assess your situation. But above all, heed local warnings! Updates from the Bahamas and TCI will be posted as soon as I receive them. -Gert 10:08AM PDT Update: I mentioned above that the Cone of Uncertainty is your friend, but maybe not always, like now! See this blog post by Brian McNoldy Why the forecast cone of uncertainty is inadequate for Hurricane Joaquin. Wednesday, September 30, 2015 08:56AM EDT - Hurricane Joaquin Good morning, Guess Hurricane Joaquin did not get the memo that a very strong El Nino was prevalent, supposedly suppressing the formation of intense storms this season and has put himself in a potential position to raise havoc in the Bahamas and potentially the East Coast and New England where the nightmares of Superstorm Sandy continue to ring resoundingly through many residents memories and pocketbooks. Just upgraded to a minimal Cat 1 hurricane, Joaquin's central pressure has dropped from last nights 990 mb to 971 mb and it's quite possible a rapid intensification phase could occur due to the extreme heat content of the ocean waters surrounding the Bahamas and a lessening of the wind shear which has so far prevented total consolidation of the thunderstorms with other convection around the center of circulation. Moisture and instability from former TS Ida and the low sitting over northern Florida contribute to this equation. Even if rapid intensification does not take place, Joaquin will strengthen and I can see him reaching Category 3 major hurricane status eventually. This bodes ill for the eastern and central Bahamas where hurricane warnings are up and watches posted for the northern Bahamas. Moving a paltry 6 mph to the SW, Joaquin is only digging further southward before an expected west and then eventually northern turn, like "right turn Clyde". As it turns northward, most of the islands that it hit already coming into the Bahamas would be under the gun on a continuous basis so a long lasting lashing would be devastating. Once headed northward, spaghetti models earn their name as they are scattered from west to east and the exact track and intensity by Sunday is very far from finite so I will not conclude anything at this point. Will Joaquin be pulled close to the coast and ride the trough all the way to New England? Will it make landfall in the Carolinas? Or will it be kicked out to sea as forecast by one of the more reliable major computer models? Regardless of a definitive track, flash flooding and rip currents, coastal flooding and erosion, storm surge and yes, wind damage are all a reality here.The dynamics are in place for a hurricane strike from North Carolina to New England and combined with other weather features, a Sandy like "left turn" into the coast is a good possibility. Since, as the NHC says, confidence is low on the track after 3 days from this point, everyone should be getting prepared. Hopefully, Sandy taught a lesson never to be forgotten and heeded. Dave Tuesday, September 29, 2015 15:11PM PDT - Hmmm, Bahamas The latest advisory show Joaquin much closer to the Bahamas than yesterday, plus it is now expected to be a hurricane. The Closest Point of Approach with San Salvador, Bahamas is now only 65 miles, and 100 miles with Cat Island, in 2 days. So I do expect the Bahamas to issue watches soon. Stay tuned... -Gert Tuesday, September 29, 2015 09:18AM PDT - Joaquin and the US Just a quick update, Joaquin is drifting west but should be moving north in 2-3 days. As of right now it doesn't like it will make landfall in the US. But things can change. Please, for people on the East Coast check out the tools about, and see if you are in the Cone of Uncertainty, also, you can use the Closest Point of Approach calculator to see how close the storm can get to you. I have listed many cities on the US coast to make it easy for you. Although Joaquin is not expected to be a hurricane, don't underestimate it. Stay alert! -Gert Monday, September 28, 2015 21:01PM PDT - Joaquin Tropical depression 11 was upgraded to the 10th tropical storm of the season, Joaquin. It is located about 450 miles east northeast of Nassau, the Bahamas. It will get a bit closer to the Bahamas, but should curve north well before. Right now the Closest Point of Approach with Abaco is 235 miles. A pretty safe distance. Also, Joaquin is not expected to strengthen into a hurricane. So all good as it looks right now, but let's keep an eye on him, just to be sure. -Gert Tuesday, September 22, 2015 09:42AM PDT - Ida Normally I would be very worried when I look at the satellite image above. The big blob, that is Tropical Storm Ida, looks quite threatening. Luckily models are in very good agreement that it doesn't come towards us, but after drifting to the east, so actually back to Africa, it will go north, a storm for the fishes. There is also another invest out there, off the coast of North Carolina, US, that is no threat to us either. For the rest, no tropical cyclone development for the next 5 days (and more...). Nice! -Gert ... Older discussions >> Current Tropical Weather Outlook (NHC/TPC): en Español Accompanying satellite image (pop-up, source: NHC) NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Joaquin, located near the central Bahamas. A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about 850 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing winds of gale force. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves generally northward. Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for further development by Sunday. Information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Blake More detail in the Tropical Weather Discussion or view the Graphicast Image - - - Do you live in the Caribbean? - - - Join our team of special local hurricane correspondents. stormCARIB is brought to you by GoBeach Vacations - Your Accommodation Specialist for the Caribbean - stormCARIB is hosted at and supported by pairNetworks Support stormCARIB -- Donations needed -- Latest local updates from the special hurricane correspondents on the islands: - Dominican Republic [Oct 2 8:52] - Turks & Caicos [Oct 2 8:47] - Antigua [Oct 2 7:16] - Trinidad & Tobago [Oct 2 6:29] - Bahamas [Oct 2 0:19] - Dominica [Oct 1 10:10] - Grenada [Oct 1 8:21] - Culebra (PR) [Oct 1 7:33] - St.Maarten/St.Martin [Sep 30 23:48] - St.Croix [Sep 30 23:42] - Tortola & Virgin Gorda [Sep 30 20:05] - St.Thomas [Sep 30 8:44] - St.Lucia [Sep 21 20:48] - Haiti [Sep 21 20:30] - Nevis [Sep 19 19:33] - Montserrat [Sep 11 20:38] - Bonaire [Sep 9 7:11] - Guadeloupe [Sep 4 7:55] - Cayman Islands [Sep 2 23:13] - Saba [Sep 1 7:45] - Jamaica [Aug 30 21:00] - Puerto Rico [Aug 30 13:33] - St.John [Aug 30 12:30] - Barbados [Aug 29 19:57] - Anguilla [Aug 28 12:35] - Vieques (PR) [Aug 28 10:18] - Statia [Aug 27 16:50] - St.Kitts [Aug 27 10:47] - St.Vincent & Grenadines [Aug 15 21:45] - Curaçao [Aug 4 9:23] - General Update [Jun 16 19:53] - Martinique [May 28 18:08] Only reports received for this season are listed. See the archive for previous years. Links to excellent websites: - Navy/NRL Monterey - WeatherUnderground - NOAA/NESDIS (floater loops) - RAMSDIS Imagery - Radar Composite - E-Carib. - Caribbean/Atl. buoy data - RT model guidance (RAL/NCAR) - STORM2K forum - Tracking Waves (McNoldy) - more... Storm definitions by wind speed: - Tropical Depression <39mph - Tropical Storm 39-73mph - Cat.1 Hurricane 74-95mph - Cat.2 Hurricane 96-110mph - Cat.3 Hurricane 111-129mph - Cat.4 Hurricane 130-156mph - Cat.5 Hurricane >=157mph More info in the Practical Guide - - - Local hurricane correspondents wanted! - - - The local hurricane correspondents are the heart and soul of stormCARIB. They are the people who live on the island and write to us what is going on around them. First hand very local personal reports instead of very limited or sensationalized coverage by the general media. Do you live on one of the islands? We need your help! We are looking for more people who are interested in sending us a few paragraphs about the situation on your island before, during and after a storm hits. You don't need to be a weatherman or expert on the subject, just share with us what you know, feel and see on your island. Your help will be really appreciated by Caribbean people living abroad with family living on the islands, future visitors who have their Caribbean dream-vacation booked, etc.etc. Reliable, not-sensationalized information is just so hard to get in crisis situations. Help keep the rest of the world up-to-date with what is really happening! We really need you, Georges back in 1998, and many others since then are proof! If interested, contact gert@gobeach.com. WHAT TO FIND ON StormCARIB.com: This website is all about the Caribbean. Here you can find information, weather discussions and local reports regarding tropical systems threatening the Caribbean islands. A central part of this website is the volunteer network of special local hurricane correspondents, living on the islands, who will report, when need be, on how it looks and feels like around them. Above also hopefully easy to understand weather discussions by me and Dave. In addition, as an aid in locating family or friends on the islands in an emergency situation you can post your 'plea for help' on the bulletin board. Also featured on this website is the Quick Hurricane Web Resource Navigator, for easy locating to the least overloaded webserver for National Hurricane Center advisories and the latest satellite images. Another part of the Caribbean Hurricane Network is the 'practical guide' to hurricane tracking with unit conversions, definitions, tips, links, etc. You can also find out how close the storm is and how many hours you have left to prepare plus you can map the closest point of approach of a hurricane to your location. New is the climatology of Caribbean hurricanes section. Find out when the real peak of hurricane season is for individual islands, view hurricane tracks passing by the islands over the last 150+ years. An archive with detailed reports of how the Caribbean islands fared during the 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 (incl. Frances and Ivan), 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999 (incl. Floyd and Lenny), 1998 (incl. Georges and Mitch), 1997 and 1996 seasons are still available as well. Plus there is more, like storm-centered satellite images, make your own local satellite loop, etc. Hope you find the information on this website (now counting over thousands pages with original content) helpful. Comments always welcome! RSS web feed available. As a side note I am now accepting donations as well. Thanks for visiting! Maintained & moderated by: Gert van Dijken (gert@gobeach.com). Weather discussions also by Dave McDermott, St.Thomas, USVI. GoBeach Vacations - Your source for the best Caribbean vacation you've ever had! - www.gobeach.com | info@gobeach.com Back to top | home | tools | pleas for help | QHWRN | guide | climatology | archive | Disclaimer The information on these pages is derived from weather statements provided by the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and others, and from hurricane correspondents in the Caribbean. I tried to translate the official weather statements in more layman's terms. Also, I tried to fill the gap in reporting on what is happening in the Caribbean, instead of the US (there are already many other good website which focus on the US). Keep in mind that my statements are my own interpretations from the information available to me. Therefore, use the information at your own risk, and above all, don't use these webpages for making life-or-death decisions, always rely on the official and qualified authorities! Accuracy of eye-witness reports by the special hurricane correspondents have not been checked. They may be highly subjective. The author can not be held responsible for lost property, ruined vacations and the like. Despite all this I hope you found the webpage informative and useful. These pages do not have a commercial intent. GoBeach Vacations provided the means and opportunity to start all this. 'Unfortunately' this website has become too popular, placing too much load on the gobeach.com webservers. Luckily, starting in 2000, my excellent webhost provider, pairNetworks, liked my website so much that they support services whenever they can. Comments are always welcome. Just send a note to gert@gobeach.com. Gert