Home About Us Resources Investment Strategies Spotlight Contact Us Careers Help United States Insights Why Fixed-Income Global Outlook Global Credit Monitor Investment Reports Podcasts Webcasts In the Media Blog By the Numbers Featuring brief segments of economic analysis from our senior economist Michael Bazdarich, PhD. The economic analysis we previously featured in By the Numbers is now available on the Western Asset Blog. This page will no longer be updated. APRIL 24, 2020 Surprisingly, Durables Orders Hold Up Well in March ... Apart From Aircraft Headline new orders for durable goods dropped -4.5% in March. However, net of aircraft, durables orders were essentially flat, down only -0.2%. Within the durables category, we pay a lot of attention to orders for nondefense capital equipment excluding aircraft. This proxy for capital spending activity was also about flat, at +0.1%. APRIL 15, 2020 An Awful Thing Happened on the Way to the Store Headline retail sales declined -8.7% in March, and the "control" measure we track, sales excluding vehicles, building materials, and gasoline, declined -3.5%. Do you really care about revisions to February? APRIL 03, 2020 Effects of Virus Obvious in March Payroll Data Private-sector payroll jobs declined a jolting -713,000 in March, as the effects of COVID-19 on the economy began to set in earlier than expected. Our preferred jobs measure, private sector excluding construction and retailing, showed a decline of -638,000. MARCH 27, 2020 February Consumer Spending Possibly Shows Early Signs of Virus Effects Personal incomes grew a very healthy 0.6% in February, while private-sector wage incomes grew nearly as nicely, up 0.5%. Consumer spending in the month, however, did not fare as well, up 0.2% in nominal terms and up 0.1%, after adjusting for price increases. MARCH 17, 2020 Retail Sales Continue to Stumble in the Last Months Before the Deluge This is our first By the Numbers installment since the February jobs data release on March 6. Last week was a no-information week as far as economic data was concerned, but it was pretty earth-shaking concerning our way of life and the tasks ahead of us in coming to grips with the coronavirus/COVID-19. As of March 6, COVID-19 was an oddity affecting China that we thought might have some effect here. Since then, especially in the last six days, it has morphed into a once-in-a-generation event dramatically disrupting our lives ... for who knows how long as of right now. SHOW ALL PAST ARTICLES Michael Bazdarich Product Specialist/Economist Mike brings more than 44 years of experience to his position. "By the Numbers" will address economic data releases that are pertinent to a broad range of investors. Prior to joining the Firm in 2005, Mike ran his own consulting firm, MB Economics. 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