<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?> <rss xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0"><channel><title>EXANTE company news</title><link>https://exante.eu/press/news/</link><description>Updates on changes in EXANTE company news.</description><atom:link href="https://exante.eu/pl/news/rss/" rel="self"></atom:link><language>en</language><lastBuildDate>Thu, 21 Oct 2021 16:44:22 +0200</lastBuildDate><item><title>EXANTE Macro Insights</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1855-exante-macro-insights/</link><description>&lt;em&gt;By Ren&amp;eacute;e Friedman, PhD&lt;/em&gt; &lt;h4&gt;The week in summary:&lt;/h4&gt; Welcome to the 4th in our Macro Insights series. Over the last week we&amp;rsquo;ve seen solid corporate results help counterbalance inflation concerns although investors are looking closely at how higher energy and raw material costs are affecting margins. The dollar was slightly weaker against its peers. Although it is becoming clearer from the Fed that the taper of the $120 billion monthly bond purchases will almost undoubtedly begin in November, a rate rise is, in the words of Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday 19 October, &amp;ldquo;probably still some time off.&amp;rdquo; On the other hand, in the UK, the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said, during a panel organised by the Group of 30 consultative group on Sunday 17 October, that although he continued to believe the recent jump in inflation would be temporary, he predicted that a surge in energy prices would push it higher and make its climb last longer, increasing the expectation of higher medium-term inflation. &amp;ldquo;And that&amp;rsquo;s why we at the Bank of England have signalled, and this is another such signal, that we will have to act,&amp;rdquo; he said. &amp;ldquo; Meanwhile, global bond yields were mixed and oil prices held near multi-year peaks. It&amp;rsquo;s certainly a tough time for central banks (and investors) as they grapple with rising inflation, the energy price surge, the secondary effects of supply constraints, increasing wages, and uncertainties around labour markets, skills mismatches and participation rates affecting longer term growth potential. This past week saw a record high for bitcoin as it reached $66,722 on Wednesday. This is approximately a 130% increase in 2021. This was on the back of the new bitcoin ETF, Proshares ETF, which opened at $40.88 on Tuesday under the ticker BITO. This ETF is&amp;nbsp; investing in bitcoin futures not the actual digital coins. ETFs designed to own actual crypto assets are still not allowed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Many crypto enthusiasts are hoping that bitcoin ETFs will soon be included within pension funds and other large investors portfolios. This would potentially reduce the high level of volatility associated with the asset as demand would be more stable. As noted by Bloomberg bitcoin has climbed to its latest high atop a tide of pandemic-era liquidity, speculative bets and expectations of wider adoption by institutional investors. On Tuesday BITCO was the second-most heavily traded fund on record with turnover of almost $1 billion. &lt;img alt="" src="/media/uploads/2021/10/21/m1.png" style="width: 730px; height: 198px;" /&gt; &lt;h4&gt;Things to look out for this coming week:&lt;/h4&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;In Europe on Friday look out for Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMIs. On Tuesday the ECB will release its bank lending survey which will give a good view of financing conditions across the EU. On Thursday we will see consumer, services, industrial and business confidence numbers. The ECB rate decision will also be revealed on Thursday along with the monetary policy decision statement.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;For the UK on Friday we will have retail sales, services PMI&amp;nbsp; and manufacturing PMIs&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;In the US on Friday we will see Markit services, manufacturing, and composite PMIs while on Monday the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) which should give an indication of overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. On Tuesday there is the Housing price index which is important as housing is a very sensitive indicator of the US economy. Wednesday is the most important data day in the US with the release of preliminary GDP for Q3.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h4&gt;&lt;font color="#007F39"&gt;The human factor behind the stagflation risk&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/h4&gt; Over the past week, following the release of the FOMC minutes, it is clear that the US Fed&amp;rsquo;s team of economists think inflation will come down to below the targeted 2% in 2022 while market economists think and are reacting otherwise. So who is right? Will the market overshoot as it often does or will the Fed&amp;rsquo;s forecasters, with their wide band of scenarios, be right?&amp;nbsp; Economists often get it wrong and we disagree with each other incessantly about why,only to realise, with hindsight, that another factor was coming into play. This is exemplified by Queen Elizabeth&amp;rsquo;s question about the global financial crisis to a group of professors at the London School of Economics and Political Science in November 2008, &amp;ldquo;why did no one see this coming?&amp;rdquo; (and yes, as an LSE alum I still cringe every time I think about this).&amp;nbsp; Perhaps the factor that is coming into play that maybe should garner more attention is labour market dysfunctionality, i.e. the skills and educational access gap that exists that may be preventing workers from either re-entering the workforce post-Covid or in entering it to begin with.&amp;nbsp; In the US on Wednesday 19 October, the Beige book, a summary from the Fed&amp;#39;s 12 regional districts, showed that although employment was increasing, labour growth was dampened by a low supply of workers. This was despite wage increases designed to attract new hires and keep existing employees, the report said.&amp;nbsp; Competition for talent and workers&amp;#39; willingness to switch jobs is driving up wages.&amp;nbsp; This is not just a US problem; wages are increasing globally. As reported by the Financial Times on Thursday 21 October, &amp;ldquo;wage disputes are becoming a flashpoint for investors and policymakers as developed economies recover from the pandemic. Emboldened by staff shortages, rising energy prices and living costs, employees are increasingly butting heads with their employers over salaries. One of Germany&amp;rsquo;s biggest trade unions this month asked for an inflation-busting 5.3 per cent pay rise.&amp;rdquo;&amp;nbsp; Yet, more worryingly, the US report showed that the increase in available workers that was expected as pandemic unemployment benefits expired and schools reopened failed to materialize in many districts. Given that pandemic related employment support has been largely removed in the US, the UK and in Europe we would expect unemployment to fall. It largely is, but why are we still seeing lower participation rates than would be expected? The UK, for example, has seen its highest ever number of job vacancies in July to September 2021 at 1,102,000, an increase of 318,000 from its pre-pandemic (January to March 2020) level. However, the economic inactivity rate was estimated by the Office for National Statistics at 21.1% in September 2021, 0.9 percentage points higher than before the pandemic.&amp;nbsp; Even though European unemployment has fallen back towards pre-pandemic levels and the number of people on state job support schemes has dropped sharply, labour shortages remain there throughout, especially among younger workers.&amp;nbsp; Has the pandemic made people less willing to work jobs they don&amp;rsquo;t love or is it something else? It seems that it is really a (global) structural unemployment problem that has been largely ignored by markets prior to the pandemic. The skills gap and the associated bottlenecks and inflationary effects it may have, may well become the factor to cause a slowdown of the post pandemic recovery and lead to medium term stagnation.&amp;nbsp; Although much attention has been paid to the shortage of HGV drivers, fruit pickers, hotel and other frontline service staff, the results of the OECD report published in September 2021 on the job market, the Employment Outlook 2021, points out how a slow rebound in jobs involves a high risk of long-term unemployment. It stressed the need for governments to invest in up-skilling and re-skilling of unemployed and displaced workers. It said this was a fundamental&amp;nbsp; action to support job transition in the recovery, and respond to changes in the demand for skills brought by automation, digitalisation and structural changes.&amp;nbsp; It is clear that in the short term, governments will need to step in &amp;ndash; whether by deploying soldiers to be HGV drivers or providing subsidies to companies to hire seasonal workers to prevent further inflation spikes in food and in retail services and to mitigate some of the shortages and keep the economy from slowing. In the meanwhile Central banks will have to cautiously deal with the secondary effects of supply constraints and rising commodity prices by keeping a solid eye on inflation anchoring.&amp;nbsp; Although we are highly unlikely to have significant wage inflation spirals, largely due to the fact that labour markets&amp;nbsp; themselves have changed so much since the 1970s, it does not mean that stock markets will be immune.&amp;nbsp; In fact, stock markets may come off their highs as we move further into Q4 and into early 2022 because of this structural unemployment problem really coming to the fore.&amp;nbsp; The pressing question for companies and policy makers will then likely become, how, once immediate supply concerns abate, should they think about the&amp;nbsp; kind of insurance or slack they should build into educational and employee training systems over the longer term to mitigate any future supply side shocks.&amp;nbsp; DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as &amp;ldquo;EXANTE&amp;rdquo;) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication &amp;nbsp;</description><pubDate>Thu, 21 Oct 2021 16:44:22 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1855-exante-macro-insights/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTEN celebrations come to a close with our final anniversary event held in Rovinj, Croatia</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1854-exanten-celebrations-come-to-a-close-with-our-final-anniversary-event-held-in-rovinj-croatia/</link><description>EXANTE held its eighth and final 10th anniversary event in Rovinj, Croatia on 20 October 2021.&amp;nbsp;EXANTEN Croatia coincided with a Zagreb Stock Exchange conference ‒ &lt;a href="https://izazov-promjene.com/en/"&gt;Challenge of Change&lt;/a&gt;, of which EXANTE was a sponsor. During the event, Anthony Lukac, a senior account manager for EXANTE, discussed the current global market trends and our investment services.&amp;nbsp; We have built our own infrastructure and DMA trading solutions to ensure advanced functionality, ease-of-use, high performance and near-zero latencies. We also offer branded White Label brokerage platform solutions to financial organisations in Croatia and across the globe that can be launched in a matter of weeks.&lt;br /&gt; &amp;nbsp;&lt;br /&gt; We would like to thank our guests in all eight event locations for making our EXANTEN celebrations so very special and memorable. We wouldn&amp;rsquo;t be here without your continued support. We look forward to many more years of success together!&amp;nbsp;</description><pubDate>Thu, 21 Oct 2021 12:43:25 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1854-exanten-celebrations-come-to-a-close-with-our-final-anniversary-event-held-in-rovinj-croatia/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTEN in Poland: Penultimate Party and Vodka Tasting</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1853-exanten-in-poland-penultimate-party-and-vodka-tasting/</link><description>On 15 October our EXANTEN celebrations moved to its penultimate destination &amp;mdash; Warsaw, Poland. The event was held at the Kotłownia Bar, the Museum of Polish Vodka.&amp;nbsp; As part of the evening&amp;rsquo;s activities EXANTE&amp;rsquo;s Chief Marketing Officer, Stephany Zoo, shared our corporate vision and opportunities for EXANTE investors, including our trading platform and White Label solutions.&amp;nbsp; We are looking forward to expanding our presence in Poland as one of EXANTE&amp;rsquo;s most promising markets. We are able to provide our clients with a plethora of instruments available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange as well as 50+ global exchanges from across the EU, North America, Asia, the CIS and beyond. Our customer care team speaks Polish and provides 24/7 support via email, phone and chat. The EXANTE website and platform are also available in Polish. The final EXANTEN celebration will take place in Rovinj, Croatia on 20 October. Stay tuned for more news and pictures on our &lt;a href="https://facebook.com/exante.global/posts/4416097588445159/"&gt;social media&lt;/a&gt;.</description><pubDate>Mon, 18 Oct 2021 10:00:32 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1853-exanten-in-poland-penultimate-party-and-vodka-tasting/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTE Macro Insights</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1852-exante-macro-insights/</link><description>&lt;em&gt;By Ren&amp;eacute;e Friedman, PhD&lt;/em&gt; Welcome to the 3rd in our Macro Insights series. Over the last week, during its annual meeting, the IMF said the global economy is projected to grow 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9 % in 2022 (0.1% lower for 2021 than in the July 2021 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update). The downgrade is due to ongoing supply disruptions in developed markets and worsening pandemic dynamics in low-income developing countries. Employment is generally expected to continue lagging the recovery in output. In short, the risks are rising that inflation may be more sticky than some are willing to admit. Indeed ECB President Lagarde reiterated on Thursday her belief that Europe&amp;#39;s inflation upswing is still temporary and there are no signs yet that the recent surge is becoming embedded in wages. She said, &amp;quot;So far, there is no evidence of significant second-round effects.&amp;rdquo; However, given that Eurozone inflation is expected to hit 4% before the end of the year, twice the ECB&amp;#39;s target, the ECB may have to listen to IMF advice and should be prepared to act quickly if there are risks of rising inflation expectations becoming tangible.&amp;nbsp; The US remains a different story in terms of willingness to act. The demand for workers is outpacing supply and job openings were at a near-record high of more than 10.4 million in August according to Labour Department data. Producer prices have also reached an 11 year high coming in at 8.6% y/o/y in September while U.S. consumer prices shot up 5.4% over the same period. The US Fed&amp;rsquo;s taper is set to begin next month judging by speeches from FOMC members, some of whom, like St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, wants to see the taper completed in Q1 2022 rather than in mid 2022.&amp;nbsp; As a result the Treasury 10-year yield ticked lower during the week while equity markets were up as better than expected corporate earnings and economic data outweighed investors&amp;rsquo; concerns about inflation and continuing supply-chain bottlenecks negatively affecting growth. &lt;img alt="" src="/media/uploads/2021/10/15/w1.png" style="width: 730px; height: 262px;" /&gt; &lt;h4&gt;Things to look out for this coming week:&lt;/h4&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;The annual IMF/World Bank meetings conclude this week with discussions on the role of trade and on the digital money revolution on Friday and a speech on globalisation after the pandemic by ECB president Christine Lagarde on Saturday.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;In Europe on Friday there is the European Council meeting while on Wednesday look for EU consumer price index data as it may force the ECB to rethink the pace of policy change; On Thursday look out for preliminary consumer confidence numbers as well as preliminary Market PMI composite numbers for October. Both will be closely watched as indicators of continuing economic recovery or slowdown.&amp;nbsp;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;For the UK we will look forward to CPI data on Wednesday&amp;nbsp; which will give a solid indication of just how sticky inflation is becoming. We will then get a further view on how confident UK consumers are feeling about the economy and its prospects for growth on Thursday with the release of the GFK consumer confidence survey.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;For the US on Friday we will be focused on retail sales and the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index to see whether or not consumers are still optimistic about the economy or are getting bogged down by inflationary expectations. On Tuesday data on housing starts and building permits will be viewed as a signal of expected economic growth. On Thursday we see the release of weekly jobless claims. We&amp;rsquo;ll also be looking at the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey which serves as an indicator of manufacturing trends.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;And do keep an eye out for China&amp;rsquo;s y/o/y GDP release on Monday. A slowdown in China will have a wider impact on emerging markets, particularly commodity exporting countries. Retail sales data will also be released on Monday.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h4&gt;It&amp;rsquo;s all about getting the money, money, money&lt;/h4&gt; While global markets worry about rising prices and supply bottlenecks hindering trade, governments are increasingly focused on ensuring that it is in fact easier to receive payments from trade. And what is clear to many is that Covid has changed global trade trends and accelerated the digitalisation of money and payments. However, payment and market infrastructures remain fragmented. Making integration across wholesale and retail payments easier, faster, and cheaper will be vital to supporting economic growth.&amp;nbsp; On Tuesday 12 October the G20 held a meeting that discussed their roadmap for enhancing cross-border payments. This roadmap is setting specific quantitative global targets for addressing the challenge of cost, speed, transparency and access faced by cross-border payments.&amp;nbsp; &lt;h4&gt;Cutting out the middleman&lt;/h4&gt; One of the most interesting aspects of the roadmap is the potential role of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). CBDCs are essentially the digital form of a country&amp;rsquo;s fiat currency so are also a claim on its central bank. Instead of printing physical cash, the central bank issues electronic coins or places digital money in accounts. Unlike cryptocurrencies which are&amp;nbsp; decentralised and not issued or backed by a nation state or central bank, CBDCs are fully backed by their respective governments. And even though the aggregate market value of cryptocurrencies now exceeds $2 trillion, they can suffer from price volatility. In response to cryptocurrencies perceived shortcomings, as noted by Ian De Bode, Matt Higginson, and Marc Niederkorn of the consultancy company McKinsey in an 11 October paper, &amp;ldquo;multiple private, stabilised cryptocurrencies&amp;mdash;commonly known as stablecoins&amp;mdash;have emerged outside of state sponsored channels, as part of efforts designed to enhance liquidity and simplify settlement across the growing crypto ecosystem. Stablecoins are pegged to a unit of underlying asset, often issued on faster blockchains, and are wholly or partially backed with state-issued currencies (such as the US dollar, Pound Sterling, or Euro), highly liquid reserves (like government treasuries), or commodities such as precious metals.&amp;rdquo; But for governments around the globe concerned about ensuring the conditions and tools for economic growth are as well developed as possible, CBDCs are a potentially much safer and more controllable option. A trial by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in September concluded that CBDCs could slash the time needed for cross border payments to seconds instead of in the three to five days it usually takes as payments are passed via a network of banks. This is particularly the case when a bank has no network in a given country so has to channel payments via a local bank. The trial, which was held between Thai and Hong Kong central banks, used blockchain to synchronise transaction data across the payment chain. The trial also indicated that costs could be cut by up to half by reducing liquidity management, compliance and foreign exchange operations.&amp;nbsp; The BIS is now working with the central banks of Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and South Africa in a new initiative, named Project Dunbar, to test the use of CBDCs in cross border payments. The goal, according to the BIS, is to allow financial institutions to transact directly with each other in these digital currencies thereby eliminating the need for intermediaries and cutting the time and cost of transactions.&amp;nbsp; And on Wednesday 13 October the G7 also came out in support of CBDCs, saying that it would complement cash and could act as a liquid, safe settlement asset and an anchor for the payments system. However the G&amp;amp; did caveat their support by stating that the currencies must be issued in a way that does not infringe upon the central banks&amp;#39; mandates, and meet rigorous standards of privacy, transparency and accountability for protection of user data.&amp;rdquo;&amp;nbsp; Although, according to the Atlantic council, only five countries currently have active CBDCs, 81 countries (representing over 90% of global GDP) are now exploring their development. The actual issuance of CDBCs by key institutions like the US Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the ECB is still quite a long way off. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that wiithout new standards and international coordination to deal with these new digital innovations, the global financial system may face a significant currency exchange problem in the not too distant future. DISCLAIMER: While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as &amp;ldquo;EXANTE&amp;rdquo;) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication. &amp;nbsp;</description><pubDate>Fri, 15 Oct 2021 11:36:41 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1852-exante-macro-insights/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTEN in Spain: Our sixth anniversary event</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1851-exanten-in-spain-our-sixth-anniversary-event/</link><description>On 7 October, we held our sixth EXANTEN celebration with a reception in the centre of Madrid.&amp;nbsp; During the event, Miguel Cedillo Alonso, a Senior Account Manager at EXANTE, spoke to our guests about our DMA trading platform and turnkey White Label solutions for financial organisations. EXANTE offers its clients a large variety of assets available on the Madrid Stock Exchange. Our web resources and 24/7 customer support are available in Spanish. The EXANTEN celebrations will continue eastwards with a party in Warsaw, Poland on 15 October. Keep an eye out for anniversary news and pictures on our &lt;a href="https://www.facebook.com/exante.global"&gt;social media&lt;/a&gt;.</description><pubDate>Thu, 14 Oct 2021 13:49:03 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1851-exanten-in-spain-our-sixth-anniversary-event/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTE Macro Quarterly Insights</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1850-exante-macro-quarterly-insights/</link><description>&lt;em&gt;By Ren&amp;eacute;e Friedman, PhD&lt;/em&gt; &lt;em&gt;Welcome to our first Macro Quarterly Insights. We will be taking a look at what has happened in the world of global economics and finance over the past quarter and what events and actions may impact markets in the next few months.&lt;/em&gt; &lt;h4&gt;A short global overview&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h4&gt; The third quarter of 2021 started well for equities; major economies were emerging from Covid with vaccination rates well above 70% and travel and other service industries starting to re-open. However, it ended with gains eroding as rising inflation and questions about its stickiness, given the rapid rise in oil, gas and electricity prices following these economic openings and lower than anticipated wind energy supplies, stoked inflationary pressures that could threaten the global recovery. The continuing supply chain and shipping bottlenecks, the collapse of Evergrande in China heralding slower growth there with the consequent drop in demand for global imports and exports, and the spread in the Delta variant contributing to labour shortages, especially in emerging markets where vaccination rates are much lower, led to growing concerns around growth prospects that will likely continue to be fretted over well into Q4. &lt;img alt="" src="/media/uploads/2021/10/14/q1.png" style="width: 730px; height: 294px;" /&gt; As inflation went past central banks 2% targets, global markets were focused on when and how fast the US Fed would begin its taper of asset purchases and when they may consider a rate rise. The Fed&amp;rsquo;s September statement and subsequent statements by the chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, have pretty much guaranteed a taper announcement in November. Fed funds rate projections showed a faster hiking schedule during Q3, as 10 year bonds reached yields not seen in years. Strong earnings had lifted US stocks as the opening of the economy promised growth of up to 7% but was later downgraded to less than 6% for 2021. In Europe equities were pretty flat in Q3 with only the energy and tech stocks seeing real growth. As in the US worries emerged over inflation due to supply chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices. Wholesale gas prices in Europe have doubled since mid-August, oil is up at least 20%, and coal futures are also significantly up (about 50%). Although annual inflation in the Eurozone came in well below US levels (at an estimated 3.4% in September vs 4.2% in the US) and the ECB said it is willing to tolerate a moderator and transitory overshoot of its 2% inflation target, the pressure is piling on as growing energy shortages, uncertainty over Germany&amp;rsquo;s new government coalition and the impact that will have on fiscal policies across the region, and structural unemployment issues related to skill mismatches come back into play.&amp;nbsp; In the UK equities rose over Q3 but threats of rising inflation from supply bottlenecks and rises in food and energy prices and slower growth will continue to weigh into Q4. The Bank of England&amp;rsquo;s hawkish tone means that a rate rise is already priced in for December with an expected rise of 0.5% by March 2022.&amp;nbsp; In Asia, confidence was hit by the Evergrande collapse in China, the sell off in tech and education stocks following regulatory tightening by the Chinese authorities, and the uncertainty around the outlook for the Chinese market and the spillover that will have on regional economies growth prospects.&amp;nbsp; Emerging market (EM) equities declined in Q3 due to concerns over continued supply chain disruptions and worries over the implications of higher food and energy prices for some markets and the re-imposition of some Covid-19 restrictions. &lt;img alt="" src="/media/uploads/2021/10/14/q2_cs8VMeC.png" style="width: 730px; height: 370px;" /&gt; In Latin America, Brazil was the weakest market as inflation continued to rise above target and the central bank responded with further interest rate hikes. Weaker industrial metals prices also weighed on the performance of net exporter markets Peru and Chile while energy exporters Russia, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE all benefited from the OPEC+ agreement not to raise production amidst a global demand spike. &lt;h4&gt;What to keep in mind for Q4 2021&lt;/h4&gt; Just when we thought we made it through the worst of Covid (and its various variants), growth was back to and even surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and the overall outlook for 2022 seemed rosier, there are still some potential bumps in the road that investors need to keep in mind that may have some significant currency effects, be equity market dampeners, and/or support gold and other precious metals. The first of these is the ASEAN annual summit on 26-28 October and the East Asia Summit. These are likely to centre around cross-Pacific tensions between the US and China over trade, the new support to coal after China agreed to stop the production of new coal fired stations, and the political pressures being exerted on Hong Kong by the Chinese mainland (especially keeping in mind the Hong Kong legislative elections in December). There is also the ongoing dispute between China and the other countries of SouthEast Asia over the South China Sea and their reported oil and gas deposits. These may prove to be particularly tempting now that Chinese industry is facing higher electricity costs due to open coal markets and energy shortages. And finally there is the the rising threat against Taiwan from China, i.e, the sending of 150 Chinese air force jets into Taiwan&amp;rsquo;s air-defence identification zone in early October after President Xi Jinping pledged that the &amp;ldquo;historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland . . . will definitely be fulfilled&amp;rdquo;.&amp;nbsp; &amp;nbsp; Attention will then likely turn on 30-31st October to the G-20 meeting in Italy where politicians will continue to focus on the ongoing international response to the COVID-19 pandemic and put pressure on the wealthier governments&amp;nbsp; to provide greater global access to vaccines and other therapeutics. There will also be the usual platitudes of working together to build up resilience to future shocks, most of which are likely to come from increasing climate related events that create civil and political unrest, particularly in emerging markets and force migration from those emerging markets. Other discussions will center on the sustainable finance roadmap in the run-up to COP 26. The G20 is made up of the European Union and 19 other countries including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, the UK, and the US. From 1-12 November the UK will be hosting, after a year&amp;rsquo;s delay, the UN Climate Change Conference, COP26. The UK is striving to be a global &amp;ldquo;green leader&amp;rdquo;, particularly in green finance (the UK issued its first green bond in September). Expect new regulatory commitments and promises on big emission reductions to get to net zero before 2050.&amp;nbsp; Also expect the US and Europe to push a global methane pledge and continuing disagreements on carbon pricing and the phase out of coal.&amp;nbsp; The US Fed will meet on 2-3 November. The taper is expected to go through with further guidance on the level of employment (and labour participation rates) that will be needed to expand the initial taper and the timeline of that taper.&amp;nbsp; Real attention should be paid to the 30th November - 2nd December WTO meeting. This has been postponed since June 2020 due to COVID-19 and will be attended by trade ministers and other senior officials from the organisation&amp;rsquo;s 164 members. The conference may take decisions on a range of issues, including trade finance, small and medium-sized enterprises and e-commerce. Given that trade disputes have increased during the pandemic, expect some sharp words and threats to be issued which will likely hit equity markets, particularly in Asia. And don&amp;rsquo;t forget that there is still the not insignificant issue of the US debt ceiling to be resolved by 3 December. Despite the temporary reprieve with the passing of an extension on 12 October, meaning that the well doesn&amp;rsquo;t run completely dry on 18 October, the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow as directed by Congress to meet its financial obligations is by $480 billion. This will be spent relatively quickly as the U.S. Treasury is expected to spend the majority of it on trust fund balances that had been disinvested during the &amp;quot;debt issuance suspension period&amp;quot; (DISP) meaning that Treasury secretary Yellen will have to issue another DISP once again. The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell wrote to President Biden saying that he would not work with Democrats on another debt limit increase. Lawmakers also have only until 3 December to pass spending legislation. However, markets, due to historical debt ceilings being raised at the last minute, still don&amp;rsquo;t seem to believe that there is a risk of the US government going into shutdown nor in defaulting on its debt. If that were to happen, there would be a sudden surge in borrowing costs and the stock market crash would make Black Monday look like only a mildly poor showing. It would negatively impact the retirement savings of millions and erode the purchasing power of Americans and anyone or anything else tied to the USD. The US would be plunged into recession. So in the run up to 3 December much will depend on both the trimming of social programmes in the proposed bill from $3.5 trillion to closer to the $2 trillion mark and just how intransient Democrats (and Republicans) will continue to be. Given that the political situation across the US is even more highly divided than in prior &amp;ldquo;ceiling&amp;rdquo; debates, investors may need to think about some contingency measures including the further diversification of their portfolio assets.&amp;nbsp; And on 14-15 December the US Federal Reserve meeting will likely further cement the speed of the taper and give a list of the conditions needed for the timing of rate rises..&amp;nbsp; The 16 December European Central Bank meeting should make clear if the ECB will remain behind the curve as inflation continues to bite or if they are more worried about structural employment issues in the Euro area, particularly falling demographics, and what a rise in rates would do to price stability across the region.&amp;nbsp; And finally 2021 may go out with a real life bang as Hong Kong Legislative elections are currently scheduled to take place on 19 December. This will be highly contentious because of Beijing&amp;rsquo;s crackdown on opposition politicians and activists since 202. There are highly likely to be protests and other civil disruptions; expect increasing political tensions and threats of sanctions between the US, EU, and regional neighbours like Australia if Beijing does indeed prevent or delay the elections again. &lt;h4&gt;As good as gold&amp;nbsp;&lt;/h4&gt; Gold is the global safety net. Whether in the physical ownership of pure bouillon, to jewelry, or even in ETFs, certificates or futures contracts, it&amp;rsquo;s what the poorest to the richest seek to hold or at least have access to. Don&amp;rsquo;t trust your bank, your legal institutions, or your governments? Hold gold. Want a hedge against volatility? Hold gold. Uncertain about the future? Diversify with gold. It has been seen through the ages not just as a store of value, but something that has actual physical value. Globally, jewelry still accounts for about 37% of gold demand while about 8% goes to industrial uses, particularly in electronics such as semiconductors.&amp;nbsp; In modern history, the price of gold has been closely tied to the only other global reserve, the USD. And, as inflation and bond yields have risen over the past 6 months in particular, the dollar has strengthened on expectations that a taper would begin and rates would rise. If the US Fed is forced to raise the federal funds rate to combat rising inflation, that&amp;#39;s when, theoretically, gold prices would have most likely taken off. Gold, that perceived safety net and inflation hedge, has fallen. In short, gold&amp;rsquo;s performance this year has been disappointing but not totally surprising. Gold prices have been under pressure since economies started to reopen. And normally, when there has been equity market volatility we would also expect to see a pick up in the gold price.&amp;nbsp; But, despite inflation continuing to pick up well above target levels and stock markets around the world losing ground in September, investors seemed inclined to believe central banks claims on the transitory nature of this Covid forced inflation, that rates won&amp;rsquo;t rise any time soon. Gold fell to $1,722.90 per ounce on 29 September, its lowest level in 6 months, and down 9% from the end of 2020.&amp;nbsp; &lt;img alt="" src="/media/uploads/2021/10/14/q3.png" style="width: 730px; height: 261px;" /&gt; But now fears of stagflation, or at least stagflation lite&amp;nbsp; are creeping in as growth rates, although still running high with an expected 5.9% global growth rate in 2021 according to IMF forecasts,&amp;nbsp; start to slow along with consumer confidence as the severity of the supply bottlenecks becomes better understood; many are in fact longer term structural issues&amp;nbsp; that have only come to the surface because of Covid (and in the case of the UK Brexit) events.&amp;nbsp; So how gold will perform over the next quarter very much depends on how right or wrong central banks will be about the current inflation rate&amp;rsquo;s stickiness and consumer inflation expectations. A whole generation has never experienced inflation and therefore may not know what to think. If central banks move too soon, they risk cementing in expectations in addition to dampening growth. If they move too slowly, they risk embedding inflation expectations further into wage negotiations and negatively affecting consumer spending behaviour. The trade-off is between price stability and employment, the dual consideration of central banks. The situation only becomes even more complicated if budget and trade deficits and the future costs of servicing it are also considered. For central bankers, all that glitters may definitely not be gold.</description><pubDate>Thu, 14 Oct 2021 13:13:17 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1850-exante-macro-quarterly-insights/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTE Macro Insights</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1849-exante-macro-insights/</link><description>&lt;em&gt;By Ren&amp;eacute;e Friedman, PhD&lt;/em&gt; Welcome to the 2nd in our Macro insights series. Over the last week, global equities markets have jumped from multi-month lows to dig back some ground; US treasury yields reached highs not seen in years as a drop in jobless claims suggested further labour market tightening thus solidifying the taper prospect; energy prices continued to surge following the decision by the OPEC+ group not to increase production heading into winter and gas prices also continued to rocket upwards due to low inventories in Europe, infrastructure redevelopment, and rising demand in Asia, despite Russia&amp;rsquo;s promise to meet its commitments in exchange for support to Nord Stream 2.&amp;nbsp; In short, the week leaves investors faced with a multitude of macro-economic uncertainties including an ever more likely and faster taper from the Fed, to uncertainty around China&amp;rsquo;s about face on funding dirty energy (coal) to its ability to keep injecting cash into a jittery post Evergrande market to the continuing supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages that are stoking inflation. No wonder, as represented by a relatively high VIX,&amp;nbsp; there is so much confusion about the market&amp;rsquo;s future direction. &lt;img alt="" src="/media/uploads/2021/10/07/2021-10-07-232052.png" style="width: 630px;" /&gt; &lt;h4&gt;Things to look out for this coming week:&lt;/h4&gt; &lt;ul&gt; &lt;li&gt;In Europe on Tuesday we&amp;rsquo;ll be looking forward to Economic sentiment data while on Wednesday Industrial production data will give further insight into whether or not the ECB will be willing to consider a rise sooner rather than later. Poor growth will depress the Euro and make investors more nervous about stagflation.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;In the UK on Friday look forward to&amp;nbsp; the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin for Q3 which will give a view on market developments and possible policy scenarios in the UK and internationally. On Tuesday at 07:00 watch the ILO unemployment rate data for August and claimant count data to provide further indications of possible wage inflation. On Wednesday it will become clearer if the UK is headed on a possible short term stagflationary path as GDP m/o/m and manufacturing y/o/y data will be released.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;li&gt;In the US on Friday we, the Fed and the rest of the world will be focused on US nonfarm payrolls, labour force participation rates and the unemployment rate. On Wednesday the inflation rate (y/o/y) data will be revealed. These two items will determine the speed at which the inevitable taper begins. On Friday look out for initial jobless data and the Producer Price Index, which measures inflation from the perspective of costs to industry or producers of products. It may give an indication of just how transitory inflation will be if producer costs continue to rise due to raw material shortages or other supply bottlenecks.&lt;/li&gt; &lt;/ul&gt; &lt;h4&gt;The fear of stagflation may herald the return of industrial policy&lt;/h4&gt; Governments, central banks, investors, and households have all zoomed in on the question of rising inflation with cries of possible stagnation if rates rise and fiscal stimulus stops while economies are still trying to recover from Covid. The discussion about inflation must also include a discussion about productivity growth, the ability to produce the same or more with fewer inputs. Labour productivity growth is the key determinant of how demand can grow without inflation. If productivity accelerates, unit labour costs should remain stable and so should prices.&amp;nbsp; But Europe and the UK, and to a lesser extent the US, have a problem with productivity growth; it doesn&amp;rsquo;t happen in all sectors of the economy equally. According to a March 2021 McKinsey Global Institute report, &amp;ldquo;60 percent of the productivity potential could come from action to improve efficiency through, for instance, accelerated digitisation and automation. Absent action, the risk is rising inequality and unemployment, undermining demand just when it is needed most and putting the prize of a productivity dividend in doubt.&amp;rdquo; This means more people, particularly those in sectors that are more easily automated and/or lack strong digital skills, will fall further behind in terms of income levels as well as asset accumulation, even if their wages had started to rise due to changes in the minimum wage. The long term consequences of this are clear, at least when it comes to politics; more inequality will lead to more extreme domestic political parties coming to power with all the consequent effects for fiscal policy, debt levels, bond yields, and currency values. It would also create more fertile ground for labour strikes, pile on more regulatory and investor pressure on larger companies and also hit the SME sector, the backbone of most economies, hardest. What companies learned from Covid is that reputational risk matters, especially in regions where policy makers, regulators and investors are increasingly focused on perceived sustainability, materiality and social responsibility.&amp;nbsp; &lt;h5&gt;Why Biden and Boris aren&amp;rsquo;t necessarily bonkers&lt;/h5&gt; Although the past 18 months of Covid have undoubtedly accelerated corporate investment in automation, the digitalisation of product offerings and research necessary for technological innovation, the full effects on the economy as a whole in terms of enhanced productivity growth will take time to filter through as furloughs end, subsidies to SMEs are removed, and people, who may have been putting in more hours at home than their bosses knew, move back to the office. Labour shortages and slower growth may not prove not to be so short term if skills shortages have indeed become a structural problem, unrelated to short-term economic swings. The long-run impact of the Covid shock on the productive potential of the economy is what is now affecting policy statements and choices; UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson&amp;rsquo;s rebuke to business on their dependence on low skilled labour and his promise to raise the minimum wage, the Eurozone&amp;rsquo;s &amp;euro;806bn Next Generation EU Fund with its longer term goals of making Europe greener, more digital, more resilient, and the Biden administration still trying to pass its $3.5tn infrastructure and investment bill all point to one thing: governments are aware of the inequality backlash that may occur if they do not embrace ways to improve productivity growth across virtually all sectors of the economy and the improvements in incomes and life outcomes that come with that. It is still not clear whether that increased investment to improve the chances of a cross-economy &amp;ldquo;levelling-up&amp;rdquo; will come from state intervention through an enhanced industrial policy strategy or through new regulatory requirements that put the onus on business. What is clear is that both options will probably be up for discussion behind closed doors.</description><pubDate>Thu, 07 Oct 2021 22:27:08 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1849-exante-macro-insights/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTEN comes to Italy</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1848-exanten-comes-to-italy/</link><description>Our fifth EXANTEN party took place in Cherasco, Italy on 2 October. We held a reception for our guests at Coppa del Tartufo Bianco d&amp;rsquo;Alba 2021 ‒ a golf tournament in Cuneo county. During the reception, Giuseppe Olivero, a Senior Account Manager at EXANTE, shared his vision of the investment landscape in Italy, the prospects for a post-pandemic economy, and how EXANTE, as a wealthtech company, creates opportunities for investors.&amp;nbsp; EXANTE provides direct access to Borsa Italiana and all major European exchanges. An EU-licensed organisation, EXANTE renders client services in 10+ languages and is available 24/7. This year, we&amp;rsquo;re bringing our tenth anniversary celebrations to many financial hubs whose trading venues are available to our clients through the EXANTE platform. Our next EXANTEN destination is Madrid, Spain on 7 October. Stay tuned for more news!</description><pubDate>Tue, 05 Oct 2021 12:12:48 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1848-exanten-comes-to-italy/</guid></item><item><title>EXANTEN comes to Cyprus. Anniversary celebrations in Limassol</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1845-exanten-comes-to-cyprus-anniversary-celebrations-in-limassol/</link><description>On 30 September, the EXANTE team celebrated the company&amp;rsquo;s 10th anniversary, EXANTEN, in Limassol, Cyprus. A cocktail reception was held at Limassol&amp;rsquo;s Amara hotel with 100 guests.&amp;nbsp; During the reception, EXANTE&amp;rsquo;s founders spoke with guests about the importance of digital finance amid global volatility. They reflected on the company&amp;rsquo;s founding in 2011 and where EXANTE stands today, focusing on our turnkey B2B solutions and centralised platform for professional investors. EXANTE holds a license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) and adheres to the MiFID II directive thereby ensuring the utmost protection to investors in EU traded instruments. EXANTE account holders enjoy direct market access with no re-quotes or slippage and 24/7 support in 10+ languages. As a White Label provider, we partner with a variety of Cypriot and EU financial companies, giving their end clients access to 50+ global markets and 400,000 financial instruments. The next EXANTEN celebration will take place in Cherasco (CN), Italy on 2 October. Stay tuned for news from Italy!</description><pubDate>Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:40:29 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1845-exanten-comes-to-cyprus-anniversary-celebrations-in-limassol/</guid></item><item><title>Global trade and emerging markets: how to turn the negative to positive</title><link>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1846-global-trade-and-emerging-markets-how-to-turn-the-negative-to-positive/</link><description>&lt;em&gt;As the global economy slowly recovers from Covid, emerging markets (EMs) will have to deal with not only their own domestic pressures arising from Covid, e.g. rapid increases in inflation due to disrupted supply, a rise in demand as economies slowly recover and soaring food and energy prices, but the consequent effects of developed markets becoming more sensitive to supply chain concentration and new thinking on the utilisation of domestic industrial policies.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/em&gt; Globally continuing supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, and the ongoing battle against Covid-19 and its many variants is creating great uncertainty for policymakers and investors. And, unfortunately, we know this is not going to be the last global pandemic that developed and emerging markets have to deal with. The effects of climate change including changing weather patterns, increasing frequency of extreme weather events and rising biodiversity and habitat loss will inevitably lead to further zoonotic and human-transmitted pandemics. As noted by the OECD in their September 2021 Economic Outlook Interim Report, &amp;ldquo;although global GDP has now risen above its pre-pandemic level, the recovery remains uneven with countries emerging from the crisis facing different challenges.&amp;rdquo; Regardless of how quickly emerging markets are able to get a handle on the Covid pandemic, it is becoming clearer that one area that will continue to be hit will be trade.&amp;nbsp; &lt;h4&gt;Ships, trains, planes and automobiles&lt;/h4&gt; Trade patterns were already changing before COVID due to rising protectionism in the form of tariffs and local content requirements. These issues have only been exacerbated by growing concerns about the permanency of supply chain disturbances and associated price rises coming from soaring raw material costs, shortages of shipping containers, and long delays at ports.&amp;nbsp; Shipping costs have grown significantly since Autumn 2020. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks shipping rates for dry commodities, is up by about 170% this year. The competition for ocean freight capacity has intensified as economies open up further, there is rising global demand and inventories are rebuilt across supply chains. In the short to medium term, shipping rates are likely to remain high due to limited increases in shipping capacity and the disruptive effects of local lockdowns. Although companies are reported to have looked to other sources, e.g. passenger jet holds, charting ships directly, cross regional trains, and trucking, none of these has proven particularly successful in shifting goods in the time and to the degree needed. All of this is undoubtedly contributing to changes in the &amp;ldquo;just in time&amp;rdquo; mentality that dominated international industrial activities and planning since it was first introduced in the 1970s by Toyota. This is reflected by the growing political pressures in developed countries in the form of industrial policies whereby&amp;nbsp; governments are focusing on more national self-reliance and export controls for key goods and materials. Governments will remain focused on domestic job creation, especially once debt financed fiscal handouts have stopped and furloughs are ended.&amp;nbsp; The supply constraints have, as&amp;nbsp; noted by UNCTAD in its May 2021 trade update, &amp;ldquo;created substantial uncertainty into the operations of many global value chains, providing incentives to scale down segmentation and shift production closer to consumers (reshoring and nearshoring). The continued development and implementation of regional trade agreements (e.g. RCEP and AfCFTA) and ongoing trade tensions between major economies could also contribute to changes in production patterns of global value chains. Moreover, container shortages and increasing freight rates could provide further impetus for reshoring and nearshoring trends. means that companies are now seeking to re-shore or at least reduce the concentration of their supply chains.&amp;rdquo;&amp;nbsp; Much will depend on how quickly supply constraints can be resolved; it is looking increasingly unlikely that shipping and other transportation methods will be at pre-pandemic levels before Spring 2022.&amp;nbsp; &lt;h4&gt;What does it all mean for emerging markets?&lt;/h4&gt; When investors think of EMs, they generally think first of China. Prior to the pandemic, there had been growing concerns by investors over China&amp;rsquo;s increasingly tense trading relationships with neighbours such as Australia and the political back and forth with the US. In addition, China&amp;rsquo;s growing labour costs, the high concentration of inputs from China into all types of products, and the bottlenecks in shipping from China caused concern. The growing threat of a credit crunch due to a potential fall in interbank lending in China following the collapse of Evergrande and limitations on electricity usage to meet specific requirements to reduce energy and emissions will likely entail a slowdown in the rate of&amp;nbsp; economic growth as production and exports slow in 2022 and beyond. These growing expectations of slower growth may explain the negative impact on asset prices outside of China. Ratings agency S&amp;amp;P on 27 September lowered its annual 2021 GDP growth forecast for the Asia Pacific region to 6.7% from 7.1%.&amp;nbsp; It seems that the world has come to depend on Chinese demand. A weaker Chinese economy moving forward will mean weaker exports to China, particularly for emerging markets that are dependent upon Chinese commodity demand. From a global perspective, although global trade did recover in early 2021, this was primarily due to the strong export performance of East Asian economies which have since been, as noted by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in their Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 Update, subject to waves of Covid,-19 variants, renewed local outbreaks, the reinstatement of various levels of restrictions and lockdowns, and slow and uneven vaccine rollouts, all of which, have been disrupting trade. In terms of commodity demand, the story for EMs is mixed. Some EMs should benefit from rising gas prices as they will generate significant cash flows for oil-focused producers who are already benefiting from higher oil prices in 2021. Those EMs dependent on energy imports, e.g, South Africa, will feel the pinch on growth. But it is not all doom and gloom for EMs. What matters more than a growth slowdown in China (and the consequent effect it would have on some commodity prices) is the policy reaction from EM governments. This includes improving vaccination rates to increase mobility measures and avoid renewed restrictions which will help service sector recovery as well as boost domestic consumption measures. As noted by S&amp;amp;P in its 27 September update, merchandise trade will continue to support growth in the EMs in the coming quarters as inventory restocking continues in advanced economies. However this will likely moderate back to trade related services.&amp;nbsp; Although many EM fiscal positions have weakened significantly during the pandemic, and it will be politically difficult to make fiscal adjustments by removing stimulus support, it may be the best tool to make their fiscal accounts sustainable and consequently reduce or stabilise their debt ratios. EMs central banks will have to walk a fine line in managing inflationary expectations. The reaction of central banks to rising inflationary pressures will also be critical to currency strength; this impact will be felt in sovereign bond markets, corporate bond markets and will impact the liquidity available to companies. However, given the higher real yields and improved external balances we have seen in some EMs, there are still some good opportunities for investors if they look closely at the conditions in each EM.</description><pubDate>Wed, 29 Sep 2021 19:14:18 +0200</pubDate><guid>https://exante.eu/pl/press/news/1846-global-trade-and-emerging-markets-how-to-turn-the-negative-to-positive/</guid></item></channel></rss>