Patent Document ID: 9589278
Application ID: 13835962
Patent Flag: 1

Claim One:
1. A computer-implemented method comprising: receiving, from a data repository, histories of a plurality of converted entities, each history comprising time-stamped records of events associated with a respective entity; calculating a conversion timespan for each converted entity by: selecting a time-stamped conversion event from a respective converted entity's history according to conversion event criteria; selecting a time-stamped entry event occurring before the time-stamped conversion event from the respective converted entity's history according to entry event criteria; and calculating an elapsed time between the time-stamped entry event and the time-stamped conversion event; constructing a conversion timing model based on a distribution of the calculated conversion timespans, wherein the conversion timing model is configured to predict a likelihood of conversion for an entity based on the entity's elapsed time since the entity's time-stamped entry event meeting the entry event criteria; receiving, from a real time bidding exchange, notification of an opportunity to bid on an advertising exposure associated with a candidate entity; responsive to receiving notification of the opportunity to bid, determining a time stamp of a qualified entry event of the candidate entity, according to the entry event criteria; identifying the candidate entity's elapsed time since the candidate entity's qualified entry event; calculating a likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity by applying the conversion timing model to the elapsed time since the candidate entity's qualified entry event; and preparing a response to the notification based on the likelihood of conversion for the candidate entity.