Patent Document ID: 8635328
Application ID: 10286611
Patent Flag: 1

Claim One:
1. A method of monitoring the performance of a computing system, comprising: generating a series of predictions of at least one performance parameter for a series of future time points; determining a time-varying threshold value based on the series of predictions of the at least one performance parameter, wherein the time-varying threshold value is adjusted from one threshold value to another in correspondence with the series of predictions of the performance parameter; measuring a value of the at least one performance parameter at a future time point; and comparing the measured value to a value of the time-varying threshold value at the future time point to determine if a potential error condition is present, wherein determining a time-varying threshold value based on the series of predictions of the at least one performance parameter includes a hardware processing component calculating a threshold magnitude based on the following formula and adding or subtracting the magnitude to or from a prediction of the at least one performance parameter: 
 Tt=A* ((( et−u )2+( et− 1 −u )2)/2)½ +B*w wherein Tt is a magnitude of a threshold at time t, A is a constant, et is a residual error at time t, et−1 is a residual error at time t−1, u is a mean error for a time period in which the threshold is being calculated, B is a constant, and w is a mean prediction value for the time period in which the threshold is being calculated.