Patent Document ID: 8255316
Application ID: 11962240
Patent Flag: 1

Claim One:
1. An integrated business decision-making system, comprising: a data processing component configured to process observational data related to one or more members of a target population; a prediction component configured to predict a business measure based on one or more selected combinations of marketing actions and the observational data related to one or more of the members of the target population; an optimization component configured to determine an optimal marketing action based on one or more of the selected combinations of marketing actions and the predicted business measure associated with each of the marketing actions, wherein the optimization component is configured to determine an optimal predicted business measure for the one or more members of the target population, based on the optimal marketing action; and a simulation component, wherein the simulation component is configured to determine a prediction variability associated with the optimal predicted business measure, for the one or more members of the target population, wherein the simulation component uses a Monte Carlo simulation that translates prediction uncertainty throughout the integrated business decision-making system based on the optimal predicted business measure and computes the respective prediction variability associated with each member of the target population by: instantiating a respective member account of each member of the target population with the respective optimal predicted business measure; and computing an expected risk adjusted profitability measure for the optimal predicted business measure for each respective member account.