Patent Document ID: 7693801
Application ID: 10831591
Patent Flag: 1

Claim One:
1. A method of creating a price forecasting tool for a commodity, comprising: (a) providing to a computer price data related to the commodity, wherein a relationship between types of price data is defined by the equation: z(t+k)=LN[price(t+k)]−LN[trend price(t+k)], where LN denotes the natural log function, price(t+k) is a future price at a future time horizon (t+k) and trend price(t+k) is a trend price at the future time horizon (t+k); (b) providing to a computer industry capacity utilization data related to the commodity; (c) establishing the price forecasting tool based on a statistical relationship between the price data and the industry capacity utilization data for a given time horizon; and (d) using the computer to forecast the price of the commodity based on the established price forecasting tool.