Patent Document ID: 20150381649
Application ID: 14319994
Patent Flag: 0

Claim One:
1. A method in a computing system having a processor for estimating risks related to threats to a networked system of at least one target organization, the method comprising: receiving one or more target organization information, asset information, system information, and threat information descriptive of at least one target organization; calculating, by the processor, threat characteristics for the networked system of the at least one target organization, based on the one or more target organization information, asset information, system information, and threat information descriptive of the at least one target organization; modeling, by the processor, one or more likely future pathways for at least one or more threats based on the calculated threat characteristics for the networked system of the at least one target organization, wherein at least one of the one or more likely future pathways includes a plurality of path segments, wherein at least one of the plurality of path segments is based on an unobserved event, and wherein at least one of the one or more likely future pathways includes a path segment based on an observed event; estimating, by the processor, for the one or more likely future pathways: probabilities that the unobserved event will occur, and probability distributions of times of occurrence of the unobserved event; and determining, by the processor, based on the estimating, a probability distribution of damage to assets of the at least one target organization and a probability distribution of one or more times of such damage to the assets.