Patent Document ID: 20180191552
Application ID: 15393745
Patent Flag: 0

Claim One:
1. A method of predicting outages in radio networks, the method comprising: receiving a plurality of alarms during a baseline period from a plurality of network elements; establishing a baseline for at least one of the plurality of the network elements by determining a number of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period that occur during each of a plurality of sub-intervals within the baseline period; calculating a mean arrival rate for each of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period; generating a probability density function for an arrival rate for each of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period; calculating a probabilistic score for each of a plurality of alarms during a test period based on the probability density function for the arrival rate of each of the plurality of alarms during the baseline period; determining if the score for each of the plurality of alarms during the test period is greater than or equal to a probabilistic threshold; summing the number of the scores for each of the plurality of alarms during the test period that is greater than or equal to probabilistic threshold; generating a list by sorting the plurality of network elements in descending order based on the sum of the number of the scores for each of the plurality of alarms that generated a probabilistic score greater than or equal to probabilistic threshold or based on a sum of the probabilistic scores that are greater than or equal to probabilistic threshold; reporting first network elements of the generated list and reporting alarms for the first network elements of the generated list having probabilistic scores higher than the probabilistic threshold.