Patent Document ID: 20050097207
Application ID: 10697273
Patent Flag: 0

Claim One:
1. A method for using future behavior of a battery of probes to forecast and diagnose network performance, comprising the steps of: consolidating normal network data and data returned from a battery of EPP probes into a single model matrix, a probe data set in said returned data including at least a time of said probe and a user performance measure; predicting a future value of said user performance measure from predictor variables in said single model matrix, values of said predictor variables being lagged from said probe time by a prediction horizon; generating an alarm signal if said predicted future value of the performance measure is above a threshold value; observing an actual value of said performance measure at the predicted time, said alarm signal being FALSE if the actual value is below a lower alarm threshold and an alarm signal being MISSED if no alarm signal was generated and the actual value is above an upper alarm threshold; and setting by trial and error said threshold value and said prediction horizon to achieve a rate of said false alarms below a specified limit.