Patent Document ID: 20050222888
Application ID: 11092855
Patent Flag: 0

Claim One:
1. A method of creating a production plan of a demand variation input type, comprising the steps of: calculating amounts of request for each different item of products, markets, and dates that can be assumed and probabilities of occurrence at which the amounts of request agree with actual amounts of request, based on forecasted values of the amounts of request for each different item of the products, markets, and dates, on past accuracy of demand forecasts, and on achievements of orders at the time when the plan is created; creating scenario information in which combinations of the calculated amounts of request and probabilities of occurrence are defined; finding values of management indexes from amounts of stockout and amounts of stock calculated in the individual scenarios, based on the scenario information, on strongpoint information, and on target values of the management indexes, the strongpoint information including characteristics of manufacturing plants and parts vendors and supply routes for materials and manufactured products, the management indexes being capable of quantitatively evaluating the production plan such as a stockout rate and a stock turnover rate; and calculating an amount of production that maximizes achievement ratios of the values of the management indexes to their targets within ranges of amounts of supplied materials and range of production capacity.