Title: TimeSynth: A Framework for Uncovering Systematic Biases in Time Series Forecasting
Primary area: learning on time series and dynamical systems
Keywords: Time Series Forecasting, Linear vs Non Linear Models, Synthetic Dataset, Evaluation Framework

Abstract: Time series forecasting is a fundamental tool with wide-ranging applications, yet recent debates question whether complex nonlinear architectures truly outperform simple linear models. Prior claims of dominance of the linear model often stem from benchmarks that lack diverse temporal dynamics and employ biased evaluation protocols. We revisit this debate through TimeSynth, a structured framework that emulates key properties of real-world time series—including non-stationarity, periodicity, trends, and phase modulation—by creating synthesized signals whose parameters are derived from real-world time series. Evaluating four model families—Linear, Multi Layer Perceptrons (MLP), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and Transformers—we find a systematic bias in linear models: they collapse to simple oscillation regardless of signal complexity. Nonlinear models avoid this collapse and gain clear advantages as signal complexity increases. Notably, Transformers and CNN-based models exhibit slightly greater adaptability to complex modulated signals compared to MLPs. Beyond clean forecasting, the framework highlights robustness differences under distribution and noise shifts and removes biases of prior benchmarks by using independent instances for train, test, and validation for each signal family. Collectively, TimeSynth provides a principled foundation for understanding when different forecasting approaches succeed or fail, moving beyond oversimplified claims of model equivalence.

TL;DR: A framework for evaluating time series forecasting models