Title: SFedPO: Streaming Federated Learning with a Prediction Oracle under Temporal Shifts
Primary area: learning theory
Keywords: federated learning, prediction oracle, distribution shift

Abstract: Federated Learning (FL) enables decentralized clients to collaboratively train a global model without sharing raw data. However, most existing FL frameworks assume that clients train on static local datasets collected in advance or that the data follows a fixed underlying distribution, which limits their applicability in dynamic environments where data evolves over time. A parallel line of research, online FL, removes all assumptions and adopts an adversarial perspective, but this approach is often overly pessimistic and neglects the structured, partially predictable nature of real-world data dynamics. To bridge this gap, we propose SFedPO, a streaming federated learning framework that incorporates a prediction oracle to capture the temporal evolution of client-side data distributions. We theoretically analyze the convergence bounds of SFedPO and develop two practical sampling strategies: a Distribution-guided Data Sampling (DDS) strategy that dynamically selects training data under limited storage by balancing historical reuse and distribution adaptation, and a Shift-aware Aggregation Weights (SAW) mechanism that modulates global aggregation based on client-specific sampling behaviors. We further establish robustness guarantees under prediction errors. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SFedPO effectively adapts to streaming scenarios with distribution shifts and significantly outperforms existing methods.