user: Retailers expect a mild 4% rise in holiday spending
From staff and wire reports

Consumers plan to spend an average of $816.69 on holiday-related shopping, according to a survey out Tuesday from the National Retail Federation.

Shoppers will spend an additional $106.67 on "non-gift" purchases, taking advantage of promotions and discounts to treat themselves, the NRF spending survey says. That brings total planned holiday-related spending to $923.36, a modest increase of 3.7% from 2006, according to the NRF.

Overall, the retail industry is expected to see holiday sales grow 4%, the NRF says.

"Shoppers will be a little more conservative with their spending as they become more aware of the softness in the economy," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin.

Many shoppers won't wait for the day after Thanksgiving, the traditional Black Friday, to start filling their baskets — 40% of shoppers say they will begin holiday shopping before Halloween, according to the survey.

And the Internet will again play a crucial role as consumers, on average, plan to do 30% of their shopping online, up slightly from 28.9% in 2006.

Gift cards are the gift of choice for 53.8% of consumers, according to the survey of 7,837 consumers from Oct. 2 — Oct. 9.

A separate survey for the Consumer Electronics Association predicts that electronics sales will rise 7% to $48.1 billion in the fourth quarter, from $44.8 billion the year-ago period, driven by enthusiasm for computers and TVs.

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Consumers plan to spend an average of $816.69 on holiday-related shopping, according to a study out Tuesday from the National Retail Federation, but there is a little controversy on what the most wished-for gift is.
NCAA Bracket Pool 2015: Rise of the Machines
The NCAA tournament is the one sporting event, other than Olympic figure skating, in which fan interest greatly outweighs fan knowledge. Millions of Americans will enter a bracket in their office pools this week despite not having watched any college basketball this season. This leads to the inevitable questions: Is North Carolina still good? Why is Northern Iowa ranked so high? What’s a Wofford?

So The Wall Street Journal built a new tool to fix this old problem: the Madness Machine.

The Madness Machine uses data on all 68 tournament teams and generates a customized bracket in a matter of seconds based on your own personal settings for tournament. Do you value offense or defense? Do you prefer size or shooting? Do you think the ability to make free throws is actually important? Each result is a product of thousands of computer simulations, so the top team on paper doesn’t always win, kind of like the actual tournament. Also, if you like predicting chaos, you can adjust the Madness Meter to create more upsets.

The Machine strips away intangibles and only looks at statistics. So it doesn’t love Kentucky as much as you do. The Wildcats still win about 25% of the simulations, regardless of your settings. This makes them the Machine’s most common champion. In Las Vegas, though, undefeated Kentucky is about even money to win it all. The reason that The Machine is slightly skeptical of the 34-0 team: Kentucky’s defensive rebounding percentage ranks 206th in the country, behind schools like James Madison and Houston Baptist, because Kentucky’s obsession with blocks leaves them vulnerable on the boards.

The Machine, of course, is subject to personal preference. Villanova is likely to win if you crank up the importance of 3-point shooting. If it is steals that you prize, VCU might make your Final Four as a No. 7 seed, a result that would be the most surprising thing to happen in the NCAA tournament since the Rams made the Final Four as a No. 11 seed in 2011.
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Haven’t watched any college basketball this season? Create your NCAA tournament bracket in 60 seconds with the Madness Machine.
Baseball Hall veteran candidates fall short for 2nd straight year
NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- For a second straight year, no veteran committee candidates were deemed worthy of baseball's Hall of Fame.

The Pre-Integration Era Committee weighed the merits of six players, three executives and one of the game's pioneers, all of whom made their mark before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947. None of the 10 received the 12 of 16 votes (75 percent) necessary for induction.

"The results of this committee's work and their voting are a reminder the Hall of Fame election remains the highest and most difficult honor to attain in baseball," Hall of Fame chairman Jane Forbes Clark said Monday at baseball's annual winter meetings, using nearly the same words she used last year when the Golden Era Committee failed to elect anyone.

Doc Adams, who has been credited with creating what would become the shortstop position and helped establish the nine-inning game and 90-foot basepaths, came closest with 10 votes. Nineteenth century players Bill Dahlen and Harry Stovey each got eight votes. Sam Breadon, Wes Ferrell, August "Garry" Herrmann, Marty Marion, Frank McCormick, Chris von der Ahe and Bucky Walters received three or fewer votes each.

"It's an association that's hard to crack," Hall of Fame manager and committee member Bobby Cox said. "They were fully vetted."

This was the second time the Pre-Integration Committee has met since the Veterans' Committee was reformatted in 2010 into panels to consider three distinct eras. Former New York Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert, umpire Hank O'Day and barehanded catcher Deacon White were elected in 2012.

In 2011, Chicago Cubs great Ron Santo was elected by the Golden Era panel. Cox and fellow managers Joe Torre and Tony La Russa were unanimously elected two years ago by the Expansion Era committee.

The Expansion Era committee (1973 and later) votes again at the 2016 winter meetings in Washington, D.C.

Despite the two straight shutouts, the Hall is happy with the system.

"We constantly review the way we hold our elections and we still feel very, very confident that reviewing by era is the best way to give the candidates a fair review," Hall President Jeff Idelson said. "The fact that there is a review. The fact that the candidates are thoroughly vetted -- simply upholds the high standards that existed for years for the Hall of Fame."

The 16-member Pre-Integration Era Committee met Sunday and Monday in Nashville and was comprised of Hall of Famers Bert Blyleven, Cox, Pat Gillick and Phil Niekro; major league executives Chuck Armstrong, Bill DeWitt, Gary Hughes and Tal Smith and media members Steve Hirdt, Peter Morris, Jack O'Connell, Claire Smith, Tim Sullivan, T.R. Sullivan, Gary Thorne and Tim Wendel.

Induction ceremonies will be held July 24 in Cooperstown, New York, for any players elected by the BBWAA on Jan. 6. Ken Griffey Jr. and Trevor Hoffman are the top new candidates.

Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines were the top vote-getters to fall short of the 75 percent threshold last year. Steroid-tainted holdovers Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa are still on the ballot.

Also, two Hall of Fame award winners will be announced this week. The BBWAA on Tuesday will select the J.G. Taylor Spink Award winner for excellence in baseball writing. Then on Wednesday, the Hall will announce the winner of the Ford C. Frick Award, given for excellence in baseball broadcasting.
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assistant: Baseball Hall veteran candidates fall short for second straight year