Lok Sabha Question No. 591 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-12-03
Subject: Winter Forecast by IMD
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri Dhairyasheel Sambhajirao Mane, Shri Sudheer Gupta, Shri Chavan Ravindra Vasantrao

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 591 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 3 RD  DECEMBER, 2025

## WINTER FORECAST BY IMD

## 591.  SHRI DHAIRYASHEEL SAMBHAJIRAO MANE:

SHRI SUDHEER GUPTA:

SHRI CHAVAN RAVINDRA VASANTRAO:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the India  Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued Temperature outlook during winter seasons and if so, the details thereof, State/UT-wise;
- (b) whether foreign agencies have also issued outlook for temperature during winter seasons and if so, the details thereof, State/UT-wise;
- (c) whether average error in IMD's winter forecast has come down during each of the last three years and if so, the details thereof;
- (d) the steps taken/being taken by the Government for accurate weather prediction forecast in the country; and
- (e) whether  the  Government  proposes  to  conduct  any  scientific  study  on  the  changing weather pattern in recent times and if so, the details thereof along with the steps taken in this regard?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) Yes. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing seasonal temperature outlooks for the winter season, covering the months of December to February (DJF), and the same is generally issued at the end of November. These temperature forecasts are issued  using  coupled  dynamical  models.  However,  since  2023,  the  Multi-Model Ensemble  (MME)  technique  was  used  to  prepare  the  temperature  forecasts.  These forecasts include probabilistic outlooks for maximum and minimum temperatures, along with anomaly forecast for the number of cold wave days. In addition, IMD issues monthly temperature outlooks, including cold wave information, during the cold weather season.

Spatial probabilistic forecasts are provided at the meteorological subdivision level, and the relevant information is made available through press releases, press conferences, and social media. Furthermore, apart from the seasonal and monthly forecasts, weekly cold wave alerts and warnings are issued every Thursday, which are valid for the subsequent four weeks. These weekly forecasts are made  available on the IMD  website (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/)  and  are  disseminated  to  all  concerned  States  through meteorological centers/ regional meteorological centers.

- (b) Yes.  Several  international  centers-such  as  the  European  Centre  for  Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), and the UK Met Office-publish global and regional seasonal temperature (2-metre) outlooks based on Climate Model/Multi-Model Ensemble outputs. These products, generally provided in the form of probability and anomaly departure from normal maps, include coverage of the South Asian region; however, they are not specifically tailored for India. IMD issues the  official  seasonal  guidance  for  the  country  through  its  Cold  Weather  Season Temperature  Outlook,  which  is  based  on  bias-corrected  minimum  temperature  fields derived from climate models.
- (c) IMD regularly undertakes verification of its winter forecasts, and the forecast skill has shown notable improvement in recent years owing to the use of the MME scheme based on some of the best coupled global models. Spatial verification plots available on the IMD Pune website (https://imdpune.gov.in/prediction.php) indicate improved performance compared to earlier forecast cycles. The links for the verification of seasonal and  monthly  temperature  forecasts  for  maximum  and  minimum  temperatures  are provided in Annexure-1.
- (d) The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has adopted an improved methodology for issuing  daily,  weekly,  monthly,  and  seasonal  forecasts  through  the  MME  systems.  It includes  Monsoon  Mission  Climate  Forecasting  System  (MMCFS),  monthly  and seasonal  forecast,  extended  range  forecasting  system  for  weekly  forecast  up  to  four weeks, and deterministic & probabilistic models for nowcast to short and medium range forecast up to 7 days. Further, IMD has operationalized the Bharat Forecasting System, presently the highest-resolution operational weather prediction model globally, with a spatial resolution of 6 km. Verification results from recent seasons indicate that the MME system offers improved  forecast  skill  and  greater  accuracy  compared  to  single-model forecasts. Over time, IMD has strengthened its weather observation network, upgraded forecasting systems, and developed high-resolution datasets to support the assessment of long-term climate variability over India. IMD  has  further  enhanced  operational forecasting  capabilities  through  advances  in  modeling  techniques  and  improved  data assimilation processes.
- (e) The  India  Meteorological  Department  continuously  monitors  weather  and  climate conditions across the country and publishes the Annual Climate Summary for India, along with State-wise Annual Climate Statements. The climate data of IMD has been digitized for the entire period since 1901. The data supply has been made easier by developing a climate data supply portal. Further datasets are provided to research and development (R&D) organizations  through collaboration  to  improve  understanding  and  prediction. Recently,  Mission  Mausam  has  been  launched  with  the  objective  of  strengthening weather  and  climate  services  nationwide.  The  Mission  is  aimed  at  enhancing  the monitoring, prediction, and overall understanding of weather and climate systems over the Indian region.

Annexure-1

https://imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Models\_Forecast/special\_veri/Seasonal\_TMAX\_Veri.html https://imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Models\_Forecast/special\_veri/Monthly\_TMAX\_Veri.html

https://imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Models\_Forecast/special\_veri/Seasonal\_TMIN\_Veri.html https://imdpune.gov.in/cmpg/Models\_Forecast/special\_veri/Monthly\_TMIN\_Veri.html

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