Lok Sabha Question No. 1597 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-03-04
Subject: GDP
Ministry: FINANCE
Asked by: SAUGATA ROY, MALLIKARJUN  KHARGE, AJAY (TENI) MISRA

- (a) the growth rate of GDP over the last three years according to the new series;
- (b) whether the growth rate of GDP has fallen or risen over the last one and a half year i.e. 2014-15 and 2015-16;
- (c) the average growth rate of GDP for the last three years 2014-16; and
- (d) whether there is a mechanism to assess the impact of the changed GDP series on the final growth numbers?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE (SHRI JAYANT SINHA)

- (a): The growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) market prices during the last three years is given in the following table.
- (b): As per the quarterly estimates of national income, the estimates of GDP are available up to third quarter of 2015-16. The growth rate of GDP at constant market prices during first three quarters (April - December) of 201516 works out to 7.5 per cent, as compared to the corresponding period's growth of 7.4 per cent in 2014-15. As per the  Advance  Estimates  of  National  Income,  the  GDP  growth  for  2015-16  is  estimated  to  be  7.6  per  cent,  as compared to the growth of 7.2 per cent in 2014-15.
- (c): The average growth rate of GDP at constant market prices from 2013-14 to 2015-16 was 7.2 per cent.
- (d):  The  Central  Statistics  Office  brings  out  the  annual  estimates  of  GDP  for  a  financial  year  first  as  Advance Estimates  during  early  February,  about  two  months  before  the  end  of  the  year.  With  additional  information becoming  available,  the  advance  estimates  are  subsequently  revised.  The  final  growth  numbers  reflect  such revisions.  Changes in methodology and coverage from old to new series have  also resulted in the changes in growth rates. GDP growth rates as per the old series and new series are given below:

| Growth rate in GDP at Constant (2011-12) Market Prices (Per cent)   | Growth rate in GDP at Constant (2011-12) Market Prices (Per cent)   | Growth rate in GDP at Constant (2011-12) Market Prices (Per cent)   | Growth rate in GDP at Constant (2011-12) Market Prices (Per cent)   |
|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|
|                                                                     | 2012-13 @                                                           | 2013-14 @                                                           | 2014-15 **                                                          |
| GDP                                                                 | 5.6                                                                 | 6.6                                                                 | 7.2                                                                 |
| Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO)                             | ** 1 st Revised Estimates                                           | @2 nd Revised Estimates                                             | @2 nd Revised Estimates                                             |

| Growth Rates of GDP at constant market prices (in per cent)                                                                    | Growth Rates of GDP at constant market prices (in per cent)                                                                    | Growth Rates of GDP at constant market prices (in per cent)                                                                    |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Year                                                                                                                           | Old Series at (2004-05) prices                                                                                                 | New Series at (2011-12) prices                                                                                                 |
| 2012-13                                                                                                                        | 4.7 **                                                                                                                         | 5.6 @                                                                                                                          |
| 2013-14                                                                                                                        | 5.0 #                                                                                                                          | 6.6 @                                                                                                                          |
| 2014-15                                                                                                                        | N.A.                                                                                                                           | 7.2 **                                                                                                                         |
| 2015-16                                                                                                                        | N.A.                                                                                                                           | 7.6 *                                                                                                                          |
| Source: CSO NA: Not available, * Advance Estimates, # Provisional Estimates, ** 1 st Revised Estimates,@2 nd Revised Estimates | Source: CSO NA: Not available, * Advance Estimates, # Provisional Estimates, ** 1 st Revised Estimates,@2 nd Revised Estimates | Source: CSO NA: Not available, * Advance Estimates, # Provisional Estimates, ** 1 st Revised Estimates,@2 nd Revised Estimates |