Lok Sabha Question No. 1649 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-12-10
Subject: Statistical Modelling for District-Level Development Planning
Ministry: STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION
Asked by: Shri Shashank Mani, Shri Anurag Sharma, Dr. Rajkumar Sangwan, Shri Tatkare Sunil Dattatrey

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

## LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1649 TO BE ANSWERED ON 10.12.2025

STATISTICAL MODELLING FOR DISTRICT-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

1649.    SHRI ANURAG SHARMA:

SHRI SHASHANK MANI:

SHRI TATKARE SUNIL DATTATREY:

DR. RAJKUMAR SANGWAN:

Will the Minister of STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the National Statistics Office (NSO) has undertaken studies  to  develop  model-based  district-level  estimates  for  key  socioeconomic indicators and if so, the details thereof district-wise including Baghpat District, Uttar Pradesh (U.P.);
- (b) the methodology adopted for generating such district-level estimates and the role of auxiliary data sources in improving accuracy;
- (c) the  manner  in  which  the  said  statistical  models  are  expected  to assist in evidence-based and targeted local development planning;
- (d) whether there is any plan of the Government to extend this modelbased estimation approach to other States and socio-economic indicators and if so, the State-wise details thereof including U.P.;
- (e) the details of steps being taken to ensure that local level officials are able to understand these insights and act on it effectively; and
- (f) whether  any  data  sharing  arrangement  has  been  put  in  place  for other ministries, such as the Ministry of Panchayati Raj and the Ministry of  Rural  Development,  to  make  good  use  of  the  data  collected  and insights generated and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

MINISTER  OF  STATE  (INDEPENDENT  CHARGE)  OF  THE  MINISTRY  OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION; MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) OF THE MINISTRY OF PLANNING AND MINISTER  OF  STATE  IN  THE  MINISTRY  OF  CULTURE  [RAO  INDERJIT SINGH]

- (a): The Steering Committee for National Sample Surveys (NSS)

constituted by the National Statistical Commission (NSC) recommended that MoSPI  should undertake a pilot study on the feasibility for generating the model-based district-level estimates based on the Household  Consumption  Expenditure  Survey  (HCES):  2022-23  data.  To explore the possibility of generation of district level estimates of Monthly Per  Capita  Consumption  Expenditure  (MPCE),  a  committee  was  formed under the Chairpersonship of Dr. Mausumi Bose, former Professor, Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata with members from the NSS and DES, Uttar Pradesh. The Committee was mandated to estimate MPCE figures for the districts of Uttar Pradesh utilizing model-based techniques, more specifically,  Small  Area  Estimation  (SAE)  methods.  The  district-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural and Urban Sector are given in Annexure. (b): Model-based techniques, adopting the Fay -Herriot (FH) and Spatial Fay -Herriot (SFH) models under the Small Area Estimation framework to borrow strength from covariate data and neighboring districts was used to generate reliable estimates of MPCE for the districts of Uttar Pradesh. The  detailed  estimation  methodology  along  with  its  benefits  and  use cases  to  other  identical  scenarios  have  been  mentioned  in  the  report available on the website of MoSPI at https://new.mospi.gov.in/uploads/publications\_reports/publications\_report s1761641209612\_6875c53f-d8eb-4458-be3e-1e12a9e528c9\_Compiled\_Report\_final17092025.pdf (c): Using the methodology as adopted by the Committee, estimates of MPCE values at sub-state level for the state of Uttar Pradesh, including Baghpat District, have been generated. These estimates of MPCE figures, in  turn,  would  provide  an  idea  of  the  economic  conditions  of  the households and thereby, facilitating policy decisions for implementation of developmental programmes. (d) to (e): The approach adopted in this study can be extended to other States and other socio-economic indicators. States have been encouraged to adopt similar  approaches to fill  data  gaps  and  generate district-level  estimates,  especially  where  direct  survey  estimates  are weak due to small sample sizes or are not available. (f): The  report  has  been  placed  in  public  domain  through  MoSPI's website  and  is  freely  accessible  by  Ministries/Departments  and  other users.

- *****

| Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| District                                                                                                                                | MPCE (Rural)                                                                                                                            | MPCE (Rural)                                                                                                                            | MPCE (Urban)                                                                                                                            | MPCE (Urban)                                                                                                                            |
|                                                                                                                                         | FH                                                                                                                                      | SFH                                                                                                                                     | FH                                                                                                                                      | SFH                                                                                                                                     |
| Saharanpur                                                                                                                              | 3692                                                                                                                                    | 4056                                                                                                                                    | 4935                                                                                                                                    | 5025                                                                                                                                    |
| Muzaffarnagar                                                                                                                           | 3967                                                                                                                                    | 4020                                                                                                                                    | 6081                                                                                                                                    | 6136                                                                                                                                    |
| Bijnor                                                                                                                                  | 3892                                                                                                                                    | 3930                                                                                                                                    | 3581                                                                                                                                    | 3585                                                                                                                                    |
| Moradabad                                                                                                                               | 3572                                                                                                                                    | 3582                                                                                                                                    | 4096                                                                                                                                    | 4086                                                                                                                                    |
| Rampur                                                                                                                                  | 3750                                                                                                                                    | 3478                                                                                                                                    | 4153                                                                                                                                    | 4144                                                                                                                                    |
| Amroha                                                                                                                                  | 3661                                                                                                                                    | 3722                                                                                                                                    | 3052                                                                                                                                    | 3056                                                                                                                                    |
| Meerut                                                                                                                                  | 4279                                                                                                                                    | 4272                                                                                                                                    | 5482                                                                                                                                    | 5484                                                                                                                                    |
| Bagpat                                                                                                                                  | 4347                                                                                                                                    | 4306                                                                                                                                    | 6995                                                                                                                                    | 6999                                                                                                                                    |
| Ghaziabad                                                                                                                               | 4044                                                                                                                                    | 4092                                                                                                                                    | 5597                                                                                                                                    | 5631                                                                                                                                    |
| Gb Nagar                                                                                                                                | 4454                                                                                                                                    | 4353                                                                                                                                    | 9705                                                                                                                                    | 9477                                                                                                                                    |
| Bulandshahr                                                                                                                             | 3922                                                                                                                                    | 3962                                                                                                                                    | 4272                                                                                                                                    | 4287                                                                                                                                    |
| Aligarh                                                                                                                                 | 3614                                                                                                                                    | 3626                                                                                                                                    | 4238                                                                                                                                    | 4254                                                                                                                                    |
| Hathras                                                                                                                                 | 3559                                                                                                                                    | 3561                                                                                                                                    | 4447                                                                                                                                    | 4426                                                                                                                                    |
| Mathura                                                                                                                                 | 3531                                                                                                                                    | 3578                                                                                                                                    | 4135                                                                                                                                    | 4125                                                                                                                                    |
| Agra                                                                                                                                    | 3590                                                                                                                                    | 3566                                                                                                                                    | 4808                                                                                                                                    | 4809                                                                                                                                    |
| Firozabad                                                                                                                               | 3105                                                                                                                                    | 3182                                                                                                                                    | 4187                                                                                                                                    | 4190                                                                                                                                    |
| Mainpuri                                                                                                                                | 3509                                                                                                                                    | 3415                                                                                                                                    | 4161                                                                                                                                    | 4185                                                                                                                                    |
| Badaun                                                                                                                                  | 2899                                                                                                                                    | 2955                                                                                                                                    | 4183                                                                                                                                    | 4179                                                                                                                                    |
| Bareilly                                                                                                                                | 3633                                                                                                                                    | 3545                                                                                                                                    | 4628                                                                                                                                    | 4624                                                                                                                                    |
| Pilibhit                                                                                                                                | 3135                                                                                                                                    | 3147                                                                                                                                    | 3915                                                                                                                                    | 3918                                                                                                                                    |
| Shahjahanpur                                                                                                                            | 3327                                                                                                                                    | 3275                                                                                                                                    | 4341                                                                                                                                    | 4279                                                                                                                                    |
| Kheri                                                                                                                                   | 3087                                                                                                                                    | 3081                                                                                                                                    | 4416                                                                                                                                    | 4406                                                                                                                                    |
| Sitapur                                                                                                                                 | 3099                                                                                                                                    | 3097                                                                                                                                    | 3698                                                                                                                                    | 3714                                                                                                                                    |
| Hardoi                                                                                                                                  | 2831                                                                                                                                    | 2841                                                                                                                                    | 3864                                                                                                                                    | 3877                                                                                                                                    |
| Unnao                                                                                                                                   | 3049                                                                                                                                    | 3032                                                                                                                                    | 4476                                                                                                                                    | 4462                                                                                                                                    |
| Lucknow                                                                                                                                 | 3248                                                                                                                                    | 3206                                                                                                                                    | 6622                                                                                                                                    | 6593                                                                                                                                    |
| Rae Bareli                                                                                                                              | 2926                                                                                                                                    | 2931                                                                                                                                    | 3979                                                                                                                                    | 3981                                                                                                                                    |
| Farrukhabad                                                                                                                             | 3146                                                                                                                                    | 3144                                                                                                                                    | 4473                                                                                                                                    | 4458                                                                                                                                    |
| Kannauj                                                                                                                                 | 2597                                                                                                                                    | 2667                                                                                                                                    | 3449                                                                                                                                    | 3456                                                                                                                                    |
| Etawah                                                                                                                                  | 3310                                                                                                                                    | 3228                                                                                                                                    | 5440                                                                                                                                    | 5295                                                                                                                                    |
| Auraiya                                                                                                                                 | 2884                                                                                                                                    | 2883                                                                                                                                    | 3581                                                                                                                                    | 3583                                                                                                                                    |
| Kanpur Dehat                                                                                                                            | 3094                                                                                                                                    | 3077                                                                                                                                    | 3823                                                                                                                                    | 3831                                                                                                                                    |
| Kanpur Nagar                                                                                                                            | 2929                                                                                                                                    | 2907                                                                                                                                    | 4934                                                                                                                                    | 4937                                                                                                                                    |
| Jalaun                                                                                                                                  | 3464                                                                                                                                    | 3393                                                                                                                                    | 4305                                                                                                                                    | 4315                                                                                                                                    |
| Jhansi                                                                                                                                  | 3777                                                                                                                                    | 3690                                                                                                                                    | 4644                                                                                                                                    | 4765                                                                                                                                    |
| Lalitpur                                                                                                                                | 3133                                                                                                                                    | 3186                                                                                                                                    | 4288                                                                                                                                    | 4300                                                                                                                                    |
| Hamirpur                                                                                                                                | 2896                                                                                                                                    | 2994                                                                                                                                    | 5053                                                                                                                                    | 5074                                                                                                                                    |
| Mahoba                                                                                                                                  | 3999                                                                                                                                    | 3868                                                                                                                                    | 4832                                                                                                                                    | 4850                                                                                                                                    |
| Banda                                                                                                                                   | 2865                                                                                                                                    | 2876                                                                                                                                    | 4335                                                                                                                                    | 4322                                                                                                                                    |

| Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   | Table: District-wise MPCE Estimates (in Rs.) of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.) using Model-based Small Area Estimation (SAE) Approach for Rural   |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| District                                                                                                                                | MPCE (Rural)                                                                                                                            | MPCE (Rural)                                                                                                                            | MPCE (Urban)                                                                                                                            | MPCE (Urban)                                                                                                                            |
| District                                                                                                                                | FH                                                                                                                                      | SFH                                                                                                                                     | FH                                                                                                                                      | SFH                                                                                                                                     |
| Chitrakoot                                                                                                                              | 3510                                                                                                                                    | 3314                                                                                                                                    | 3924                                                                                                                                    | 3921                                                                                                                                    |
| Fatehpur                                                                                                                                | 2936                                                                                                                                    | 2935                                                                                                                                    | 3922                                                                                                                                    | 3941                                                                                                                                    |
| Pratapgarh                                                                                                                              | 2847                                                                                                                                    | 2853                                                                                                                                    | 3716                                                                                                                                    | 3698                                                                                                                                    |
| Kaushambi                                                                                                                               | 2971                                                                                                                                    | 2975                                                                                                                                    | 3568                                                                                                                                    | 3557                                                                                                                                    |
| Prayagraj                                                                                                                               | 2967                                                                                                                                    | 2948                                                                                                                                    | 5048                                                                                                                                    | 5034                                                                                                                                    |
| Barabanki                                                                                                                               | 3041                                                                                                                                    | 3050                                                                                                                                    | 5155                                                                                                                                    | 5180                                                                                                                                    |
| Faizabad                                                                                                                                | 2609                                                                                                                                    | 2639                                                                                                                                    | 4827                                                                                                                                    | 4859                                                                                                                                    |
| Ambedkar Nagar                                                                                                                          | 3019                                                                                                                                    | 2980                                                                                                                                    | 2653                                                                                                                                    | 2649                                                                                                                                    |
| Sultanpur                                                                                                                               | 2904                                                                                                                                    | 2893                                                                                                                                    | 3636                                                                                                                                    | 3618                                                                                                                                    |
| Behraich                                                                                                                                | 3340                                                                                                                                    | 3375                                                                                                                                    | 4761                                                                                                                                    | 4782                                                                                                                                    |
| Shrawasti                                                                                                                               | 4462                                                                                                                                    | 4118                                                                                                                                    | 4182                                                                                                                                    | 4089                                                                                                                                    |
| Balrampur                                                                                                                               | 3559                                                                                                                                    | 3572                                                                                                                                    | 5087                                                                                                                                    | 5211                                                                                                                                    |
| Gonda                                                                                                                                   | 3636                                                                                                                                    | 3622                                                                                                                                    | 8133                                                                                                                                    | 7861                                                                                                                                    |
| Siddharth Nagar                                                                                                                         | 2666                                                                                                                                    | 2706                                                                                                                                    | 3060                                                                                                                                    | 3124                                                                                                                                    |
| Basti                                                                                                                                   | 2961                                                                                                                                    | 2959                                                                                                                                    | 3371                                                                                                                                    | 3397                                                                                                                                    |
| Sk Nagar                                                                                                                                | 2943                                                                                                                                    | 2922                                                                                                                                    | 4505                                                                                                                                    | 4417                                                                                                                                    |
| Maharajganj                                                                                                                             | 2778                                                                                                                                    | 2770                                                                                                                                    | 4170                                                                                                                                    | 4142                                                                                                                                    |
| Gorakhpur                                                                                                                               | 2878                                                                                                                                    | 2883                                                                                                                                    | 5777                                                                                                                                    | 5763                                                                                                                                    |
| Kushinagar                                                                                                                              | 2739                                                                                                                                    | 2746                                                                                                                                    | 3545                                                                                                                                    | 3550                                                                                                                                    |
| Deoria                                                                                                                                  | 3105                                                                                                                                    | 3079                                                                                                                                    | 3883                                                                                                                                    | 3877                                                                                                                                    |
| Azamgarh                                                                                                                                | 2885                                                                                                                                    | 2891                                                                                                                                    | 3163                                                                                                                                    | 3156                                                                                                                                    |
| Mau                                                                                                                                     | 2814                                                                                                                                    | 2808                                                                                                                                    | 2937                                                                                                                                    | 2930                                                                                                                                    |
| Balliya                                                                                                                                 | 2753                                                                                                                                    | 2765                                                                                                                                    | 2581                                                                                                                                    | 2575                                                                                                                                    |
| Jaunpur                                                                                                                                 | 2713                                                                                                                                    | 2718                                                                                                                                    | 3429                                                                                                                                    | 3413                                                                                                                                    |
| Ghazipur                                                                                                                                | 2579                                                                                                                                    | 2579                                                                                                                                    | 2771                                                                                                                                    | 2738                                                                                                                                    |
| Chandauli                                                                                                                               | 2367                                                                                                                                    | 2353                                                                                                                                    | 3401                                                                                                                                    | 3398                                                                                                                                    |
| Varanasi                                                                                                                                | 2755                                                                                                                                    | 2697                                                                                                                                    | 4171                                                                                                                                    | 4148                                                                                                                                    |
| Bhadohi                                                                                                                                 | 2446                                                                                                                                    | 2444                                                                                                                                    | 3499                                                                                                                                    | 3479                                                                                                                                    |
| Mirzapur                                                                                                                                | 2409                                                                                                                                    | 2393                                                                                                                                    | 3909                                                                                                                                    | 3910                                                                                                                                    |
| Sonbhadra                                                                                                                               | 2357                                                                                                                                    | 2337                                                                                                                                    | 5524                                                                                                                                    | 5094                                                                                                                                    |
| Etah                                                                                                                                    | 3833                                                                                                                                    | 3776                                                                                                                                    | 4354                                                                                                                                    | 4351                                                                                                                                    |
| Kasganj                                                                                                                                 | 3372                                                                                                                                    | 3366                                                                                                                                    | 4001                                                                                                                                    | 3993                                                                                                                                    |
| Shamli                                                                                                                                  | 3976                                                                                                                                    | 4026                                                                                                                                    | 6021                                                                                                                                    | 6137                                                                                                                                    |
| Sambhal                                                                                                                                 | 3569                                                                                                                                    | 3557                                                                                                                                    | 4087                                                                                                                                    | 4074                                                                                                                                    |
| Hapur                                                                                                                                   | 4043                                                                                                                                    | 4065                                                                                                                                    | 5578                                                                                                                                    | 5582                                                                                                                                    |
| Amethi                                                                                                                                  | 2916                                                                                                                                    | 2906                                                                                                                                    | 3828                                                                                                                                    | 3826                                                                                                                                    |

Note: FH denotes Fay - Herriot (FH) model and SFH denotes Spatial FH