Lok Sabha Question No. 2844 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2015-12-16
Subject: Forecast of Natural Calamities
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: VIRENDRA  KUMAR, KRISHNAN NARAYANASAMY RAMACHANDRAN

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 2844

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, December 16, 2015

## Forecast of Natural Calamities

## 2844. DR. VIRENDRA KUMAR:

## SHRI K.N. RAMACHANDRAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Indian sub-continent is among the most disaster prone areas in the world and if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor;
- (b) whether  the  Department  of  Meteorology  has  been  able  to  forecast  natural calamities accurately and if so, the details thereof;
- (c) whether  adequate  technology  is  available  in  the  country  to  forecast  natural calamities  such  as  earthquake,  cyclone,  drought  and  floods  etc.  and  if  so,  the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor along with the action taken/proposed to be taken by the Government in this regard;
- (d) whether the Government has drawn any action plan to ensure safety of life and property  in  the  event  of  natural  calamities  and  also  to  install  early  warning systems in all the States; and
- (e) If so, the details thereof and the time by which such mechanism is likely to be put in place?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) The  Indian  sub-continent  is  amongst  the  most  earthquake  prone  areas  in  the world.  Earthquakes  occur  along  the  'Alpine-Himalayan  belt',  which  also  runs through  the  Andaman  Sumatra  arc,  Indo-Burmese  arc,  and  Himalayan  arc.  The continued collision/ subduction of Indian plate with the Eurasian and Sunda plates causes  these  earthquakes.  A  few  earthquakes  also  occur  within  the  peninsular shield region of India, which are grouped under intra-plate category and occur due to internal deformation of the plate.
- (b) Yes  Madam.  Earth  System  Science  Organization  (ESSO)  -India  Meteorological Department  (IMD)  is  responsible  for  monitoring,  detection  and  forecasting  of weather and climate extremes including severe weather events such as cyclones, heavy  rainfall,  extreme  temperature  etc.  Such  forecasts  are  issued  at  national, regional  and  state  levels.  In  order  to  provide  early  warning  of  severe  weather events,  ESSO-IMD has setup a  network of  state  meteorological  centres  to  have better coordination with a state and district level agencies.

ESSO-National Center for Seismology (NCS) is monitoring earthquake activity in and around the county round the clock through its national seismological network along with other global/regional seismicity monitoring networks.

Monitoring of the seasonal (monthly / weekly rainfall scenario with reference to respective  normal  (mean  value)  is  only  carried  out  by  ESSO-IMD  to  regularly assess  and  identify  zones  of    deficit  rainfall  leading  to  drought  conditions,  the declaration    of  which  remains  with  the  mandate  of  Ministry  of  Agriculture  in consultation with various state governments.

ESSO-IMD  is  using  various  Numerical  Weather  Prediction  (NWP)  products  like Global Forecast System (GFS) , Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Model, Other global and region models  like  European  Center  for  Medium  range  Weather  Forecasting  (ECMWF), U.K. Met Office (UKMO),  Japan Meteorological agency (JMA), National Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting  (NCMRWF)  and  techniques  like  Multi-model ensemble (MME) technique , Ensemble prediction system (EPS), Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for generating most representative operational forecasts. Performance  of  NWP  models  have  improved  considerably  due  to  large  scale integration  of  local  data  &  global  &  satellite  information,  which  ultimately  is contributing to improved forecasts.

In order to meet specific requirements of flood forecasting which is provided by central  water  commission,  ESSO-IMD  operates  Flood  Meteorological  Offices (FMOs) at ten locations viz., Agra, Ahmedabad, Asansol, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jalpaiguri, Lucknow, New Delhi and Patna. During the flood season, FMOs provide valuable meteorological support to the Central Water Commission (CWC)  for  issuing  flood  warnings  in  respect  of  the  43  rivers  of  India.  CWC  is working  in  close  association  with  IMD  and  State  Governments  for  timely  flood forecast  whenever the  river  water  level  rises  above  warning  level.  To  meet  the requirement  of  State  Governments,  ESSO-IMD  Officers  invariably  attend  all  the meetings  called  by  the  State  Governments  for  reviewing  the  preparedness  on floods by various agencies.

- (c) ESSO-IMD  and  ESSO-NCS  have  existing  mechanism  to  coordinate  with  various state authorities. As such ESSO-IMD provide inputs to State Crop Weather Watch Group,  State  Disaster  Management  Authorities,  Relief  Commissioners.  During cyclones  a  coordination  mechanism  with  district  authorities  has  also  been established.  Round  the  clock  weather  surveillance  and  forecasting  system  is operational  at  ESSO-IMD  for  continued  monitoring,  detection  and  warning  of Cyclones;  river  basin  scale  meteorological  support  (monitoring  and  warning)  for CWCs river flood warning system and other severe weather systems.

Operational forewarning systems are already in place by the CWC for river basin scale flood. Fully organized protocol exists between ESSO-IMD, CWC and with the various designated disaster management authorities at centre and state levels for dissemination of weather forecasts and warning alerts.

(d-e)   The Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) has all necessary infrastructure and  capabilities  to  give  tsunami  advisories  to  India  as  well  as  to  Indian  Ocean countries.  ITEWS  has  been  designated  as  one  of  the  Regional  Tsunami  Service Providers for the entire Indian Ocean Region by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic  Commission  (IOC)  of  UNESCO  on  12  October  2011.  Since  then, ITEWC is providing tsunami warnings and related services to all countries in the Indian  Ocean  Rim  (24  Countries)  beyond  fully  serving  the  India's  coastline  / Islands. The  centre  is  capable  of  detecting  tsunamigenic  earthquakes  occurring  in  the Indian  Ocean  as  well  as  in  the  Global  Oceans  within  10  minutes  of  their occurrence and disseminates the advisories to the concerned authorities within 20 minutes through email, fax, SMS, GTS and website. Bureau  of  Indian  Standards  (BIS)  has  published  several  guidelines  and  building codes for  construction  of  earthquake  resistant  structures  and  for  retrofitting  of existing buildings. These guidelines are in wide circulation amongst the public and the  administrative  authorities  responsible  for  the  design  and  construction  of earthquake resistant structures in earthquake prone areas. National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), Ministry of Earth Sciences and other state Disaster Management Authorities, have also  taken  up  various  initiatives  to  educate  and  enhance  awareness  amongst general public and school children on the general aspects of earthquakes, their impacts  and  measures  to  mitigate  losses  caused  by  them.  A  National  Disaster Response  Force  (NDRF)  is  also  functional  under  the  general  superintendence, direction  and  control  of  the  NDMA  for  the  purpose  of  specialized  response  to natural and man-made disasters. Markets,  schools,  hospitals  and  Railway  and  Bus  stations,  airports  etc.  are regularly  sensitized  by  organizing  mock  drills  and  information  dissemination relating to evacuation and steps to be taken during rescue and relief operations. In  addition  satellite  based,  Cyclone  Warning  Dissemination  System  (CWDS) comprising 222 CWDSs have been installed in Andhra Pradesh (134), Odisha (44), Tamilnadu (42) and Pondicherry (02).

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