Lok Sabha Question No. 696 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2026-02-04
Subject: Strengthening Weather Forecasting System
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri Krishna Prasad Tenneti, Shri Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri, Shri Jashubhai Bhilubhai Rathva, Shri Tapir Gao, Shri Rajkumar Chahar, Shri Bibhu Prasad Tarai, Shri Govind Makthappa Karjol, Shri Ramesh Awasthi, Shri Shankar Lalwani, Shri Alok Sharma, Shri Captain Brijesh Chowta

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 696 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 4 TH  FEBRUARY, 2026

## STRENGTHENING WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM

## 696.    SHRI TAPIR GAO:

SHRI CAPTAIN BRIJESH CHOWTA:

SHRI JASHUBHAI BHILUBHAI RATHVA:

SHRI VISHWESHWAR HEGDE KAGERI:

SHRI GOVIND MAKTHAPPA KARJOL:

SHRI BIBHU PRASAD TARAI:

SHRI RAMESH AWASTHI:

SHRI KRISHNA PRASAD TENNETI:

SHRI RAJKUMAR CHAHAR:

SHRI ALOK SHARMA:

SHRI SHANKAR LALWANI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the  details  of  the  key  improvements  achieved  in  weather  forecasting  accuracy,  early warning dissemination and climate services during the last five years and the current year particularly in the State of Karnataka;
- (b) the extent to which these interventions have translated into measurable socio-economic benefits  for  farmers,  fisherfolk  and  vulnerable  communities  including  coastal  fishing communities in Dakshina Kannada;
- (c) the  progress  made  in  expanding  Doppler  Weather  Radar  coverage,  urban  climate platforms  and  Heat  Action  Plans  in  collaboration  with  States  including  coverage  and implementation status in Karnataka and Dakshina Kannada district;
- (d) the details of roadmap for further strengthening last-mile delivery of weather and climate advisories; and
- (e) the details of the schemes for establishing or relocating a Regional Meteorological Centre in Bhopal city of Madhya Pradesh?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) The key improvement achieved in the weather forecasting accuracy is the overall increase of average skill of the predictions by 30-40% during the last 10 years for all types of severe weather events over the Indian region at lead time of 1-day to 5-day forecasts. For the State of Karnataka, if we consider, e.g., heavy rainfall events, which are major severe weather events impacting the State, the skill of the latest 5-year warning of heavy rainfall, including  2025,  in  terms of  probability  of  detection  (POD),  is  given  below  by Meteorological Sub-division-wise.

For the North Interior Karnataka, it shows it has improved from 52% in 2021 to 88% in 2025  at 1- day lead period, from 48% to 76% for 2-days lead period, 39% to 62% for 3days lead period, 29% to 57% for 4-days lead period, and 32% to 48% for 5-days lead period.

Similarly, for South Interior Karnataka, it improved from 58% to 70%; from 51% to 65%, from 45% to 67%,  from 39% to 63%, and from 39% to 63% respectably during 2021 to 2025 at Day 1 to Day 5 lead period and over  Coastal Karnataka, it improved from 80% to 92%, from 75% to 89%, from 77% to 87%, from 68% to 80%   and from 72% to 79% during 2021 to 2025 at Day 1 to Day 5 lead period. Overall, a 15-25% improvement is observed during 2020-2025 for day-1 to day-5 forecasts of heavy rainfall for the State of Karnataka.

Regarding  climate  services,  from  2021onwards,  the  India  Meteorological  Department (IMD) has been using the  Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)-based forecasting strategy to prepare monthly and seasonal forecasting of temperature and rainfall. The accuracy of monsoon prediction over the country has shown marked improvement, with the average absolute error of all India forecast of  2.28% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the period 2021-2024, compared to that of 7.5% in the preceding four years (2017-2020).

IMD  has  been  using  all  the  latest  techniques  and  technology  for  early  warning dissemination. Currently, the mobile-based alert system is operational to issue the CAPbased alert through SACHET. All these forecasts and warnings are also shared with State Emergency Operation Centres/SDMA to further disseminate  to  the  general  public  via CAP. Similarly, it  was  shared  via  social  media,  Websites,  WhatsApp  groups,  Mobile Apps, APIs, etc.

Bharat Sarkar has launched the Gram Panchayat Level Weather Forecasting (GPLWF) initiative recently. IMD, in collaboration with the Ministry of Panchayati Raj (MoPR), launched GPLWF for nearly all Gram Panchayats in India on 24th October 2024. These forecasts are accessible on digital platforms such as e-Gramswaraj (https://egramswaraj.gov.in/),  the  Meri  panchayat  app,  e-Manchitra  of  MoPR,  and Mausamgram of IMD (https://mausamgram.imd.gov.in/).

- (b) Because of initiation and specific intervention from the Government, a total of 3,63,806 farmers across Karnataka are also directly connected in WhatsApp groups and are directly receiving  forecasts  &  warnings.  For  fisherfolk  and  vulnerable  communities,  including coastal fishing communities, warnings are also disseminated via WhatsApp through the district collector group and the SDM group for all 3 coastal districts, including Dakshina Kannada.
- (c) Currently, 47 DWRs are in operation across the country, including one C-Band Doppler Weather Radar operational from 26-11-2025, at Shaktinagar, Mangalore with 87% of the total area of the country coming under radar coverage. Heat Action Plans have also been taken up in collaboration with the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC).  Additionally,  the  Ministry  of  Earth  Sciences  (MoES)  launched  Mission Mausam with the goal of making India a 'Weather -ready and Climate -smart' nation, aiming to mitigate the impacts of climate change and extreme weater events.
- (d) Meteorological  Centre,  Bengaluru,  is constantly  seeking  feedback  from  the  user communities as well as KSNDMC for strengthening the last-mile delivery of weather and climate  advisories.  In  this  regard,  an  MoU  has  been  signed  with  the  GPS  Institute  of Agricultural Management and MC Bengaluru to ensure the timely delivery of weather and climate  advisories  to  farmers  across  Karnataka,  in  addition  to  Agromet  Field  Units (AMFUs).
- (e) At present, there is no such proposal.

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