Lok Sabha Question No. 286 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2015-07-22
Subject: IMD Rain Forecasting
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: JOSE K. MANI, KRISHNAN NARAYANASAMY RAMACHANDRAN, (ADV.) JOICE GEORGE, T.G. VENKATESH BABU, BALASUBRAMANIAM SENGUTTUVAN

**GOVERNMENT OF INDIA**

**MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES**

**LOK SABHA**

**UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 286**

**TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, JULY 22, 2015**

**IMD Rain Forecasting**

**286. 	    SHRI JOSE K. MANI:**

**SHRI N.K. PREMACHANDRAN:**

**ADV. JOICE GEORGE:**

**SHRI VENKATESH BABU**

**T.G.: SHRI B. SENGUTTUVAN:**

**Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:**

**(a) 	whether there is shortage of rainfall during the current monsoon season, so far;**

**(b) 	if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor along with the rainfall recorded so far, State-wise and the expected rainfall in the current and coming months of monsoon;**

**(c) 	whether El Nino has affected the monsoon so far or expected to effect the monsoon in the coming months and if so, the details thereof; and**

**(d) 	the steps taken/being taken by the Government to address the issue?**

**ANSWER**

**MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND**

**MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES**

**(Shri Y. S. Chowdary)**

(a)-(b)  Yes Madam. Rainfall for the country as a whole for the monsoon season from 1 st June to 20 th July, 2015 is 322.6 mm as against the normal rainfall of 348.0 mm which is 7% below the long period average (LPA).

Excepting North West India, all other homogenous regions have so far experienced below normal monsoon season rainfall.  State-wise details are given in Annexure-I. Detailed state-wise realized rainfall distribution is given below:

|   S. No. | Regional rainfall scenario so far   | Departure from normal   | States received below  normal rainfall so far                                                       |
|----------|-------------------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        1 | East and North East India           | -6%                     | Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Bihar                                        |
|        2 | North West India                    | +9%                     | Uttar Pradesh, Chandigarh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh                                                 |
|        3 | Central India                       | -15%                    | Orissa, Gujarat, Dadar & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, Goa, Maharashtra                                |
|        4 | South Peninsula                     | -12%                    | Andaman & Nicobar, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamilnadu, Puducherry, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep |

Below normal rainfall over India as a whole realized so far during monsoon-2015 is largely attributable to the weak monsoon scenario prevailed for over 3-weeks during 26 June -18 July 2015. The rainfall forecast over the country as a whole during July is likely to be 92% of LPA and 90% of LPA during August both with a model error of ±9%.

(c)	Yes Madam. El Nino has adversely affected the monsoon so far. As per the model forecasts, it is also expected to affect the monsoon in the coming months.  According to the latest status, moderate EL Nino conditions are persisting in the Pacific and latest forecasts indicate that the EL Nino conditions are likely to strengthen further during the remaining months of the monsoon season and post-monsoon season.

(d)	Gramin Krishi Seva Scheme (GKMS) is rendered now on twice - weekly basis in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), institutions of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) etc. Realized weather of the previous week and quantitative district level weather forecast for next 5 days in respect of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity and clouds as well as weekly cumulative rainfall forecast are provided. Further, crop specific advisories, generated in partnership with SAUs and ICAR, to help the farmers are issued and widely disseminated for planning possible contingency actions.

The GKMS of Earth System Science Organization - India Meteorological Department (ESSO- IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers at the district/agro - climatic zone level twice weekly through different print/visual/Radio/ IT based wider dissemination media including short message service (SMS) and Interactive Voice Response Service (IVRS) facilitating for appropriate field level actions.

Weekly rainfall forecast scenario followed by 15-day outlook is issued on every Thursday during the months of June-September for planning appropriate actions.

The Crop Weather Watch Group of MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE coordinates with ESSO-IMD, Central Water Commission, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) institutions and the State Governments to review on a weekly basis (on every Friday) the weather forecast scenario as it impacts on agriculture, level in Water Reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC), Progress of Sowing, Crop health including incidence of Pest Attacks and availability of inputs etc. The steps suggested under this process are available at www.agricoop. nic.in/weather.html.

**Annexure-1**

**STATE-WISE RAINFALL (MM) DISTRIBUTION** **PERIOD 1-06-2015 To   20-07-2015**

|            |                                        | **Period:**     |                 |            |
|------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|------------|
| **S. NO.** | **UT/STATE/**                          | **ACTUAL (mm)** | **NORMAL (mm)** | **% DEP.** |
|            | **REGION : EAST AND NORTH EAST INDIA** | **605.1**       | **640.6**       | **-6%**    |
| 1          | ARUNACHAL PRADESH                      | 896.9           | 862.2           | 4%         |
| 2          | ASSAM                                  | 641.5           | 735.8           | -13%       |
| 3          | MEGHALAYA                              | 1065.2          | 1396.1          | -24%       |
| 4          | NAGALAND                               | 249.8           | 622.5           | -60%       |
| 5          | MANIPUR                                | 491.5           | 670.8           | -27%       |
| 6          | MIZORAM                                | 588.1           | 727.9           | -19%       |
| 7          | TRIPURA                                | 676.3           | 733.5           | -8%        |
| 8          | SIKKIM                                 | 1017.6          | 799.7           | 27%        |
| 9          | WEST BENGAL                            | 629.2           | 573.7           | 10%        |
| 10         | JHARKHAND                              | 474.9           | 414.7           | 14%        |
| 11         | BIHAR                                  | 316.3           | 398.2           | -20%       |
|            | **REGION : NORTH WEST INDIA**          | **221.9**       | **203.3**       | **9%**     |
| 1          | UTTAR PRADESH                          | 253.2           | 273.1           | -7%        |
| 2          | UTTARAKHAND                            | 439.6           | 430.7           | 2%         |
| 3          | HARYANA                                | 159.4           | 146.7           | 9%         |
| 4          | CHANDIGARH (UT)                        | 257.3           | 302.2           | -15%       |
| 5          | DELHI (UT)                             | 314.4           | 196.6           | 60%        |
| 6          | PUNJAB                                 | 158.9           | 162             | -2%        |
| 7          | HIMACHAL PRADESH                       | 267.8           | 278.2           | -4%        |
| 8          | JAMMU & KASHMIR                        | 274.7           | 175.2           | 57%        |
| 9          | RAJASTHAN                              | 143.6           | 141.2           | 2%         |
|            | **REGION : CENTRAL INDIA**             | **315.6**       | **370.9**       | **-15%**   |
| 1          | ODISHA                                 | 408.5           | 426.5           | -4%        |
| 2          | MADHYA PRADESH                         | 338.4           | 313.3           | 8%         |
| 3          | GUJARAT                                | 139.4           | 271             | -48%       |
| 4          | DADAR & NAGAR HAVELI (UT)              | 417.2           | 954.7           | -56%       |
| 5          | DAMAN & DIU (UT)                       | 228.8           | 747.3           | -69%       |
| 6          | GOA                                    | 1218.2          | 1608.5          | -24%       |
| 7          | MAHARASHTRA                            | 290.6           | 421.4           | -31%       |
| 8          | CHHATTISGARH                           | 444.9           | 425.2           | 5%         |
|            | **REGION : SOUTH PENINSULA**           | **262.9**       | **297.3**       | **-12%**   |
| 1          | ANDAMAN & NICOBAR (UT)                 | 602.6           | 692.8           | -13%       |
| 2          | ANDHRA PRADESH                         | 186.2           | 213.2           | -13%       |
| 3          | TELANGANA                              | 258.1           | 276.5           | -7%        |
| 4          | TAMIL NADU                             | 75.5            | 87              | -13%       |
| 5          | PONDICHERRY (UT)                       | 47.2            | 83.4            | -43%       |
| 6          | KARNATAKA                              | 324.6           | 373.7           | -13%       |
| 7          | KERALA                                 | 852.8           | 1141            | -25%       |
| 8          | LAKSHADWEEP (UT)                       | 469.5           | 518.6           | -9%        |
|            | **COUNTRY : INDIA**                    | **322.6**       | **348**         | **-7%**    |