Lok Sabha Question No. 1712 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-07-27
Subject: National Monsoon Mission
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: George Baker, DEVJI MANSINGRAM PATEL

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1712

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, July 27, 2016

## NATIONAL MONSOON MISSION

## 1712. SHRI GEORGE BAKER: SHRI DEVJI M. PATEL:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the salient features of the National Monsoon Mission;
- (b) the details of funds allocated for this Mission during the last three years and the current year, State/UT-wise;
- (c) the targets fixed and achievements made under this mission in the country during the last three years and the current year, State/UTwise;
- (d) whether  the  Government  has  received  any  special  proposal  from National as well as International institutes in this regard and if so, the details thereof and the reaction of the Government thereto; and
- (e) the  outcome  of  the  performance  evaluation  of  the  new  oceanatmospheric  model  framework  being  adopted  to  overcome  the existing model for better monsoon forecast?

## ANSWER MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) Under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, the Indian Institute of  Tropical  Meteorology  (IITM),  Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for Ocean  Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad  and  National Centre  for  Medium  Range  Weather  Forecasting  (NCMRWF),  NOIDA have  embarked  upon  to  build  a  state-of-the-art  coupled  ocean atmospheric model for a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and b) improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast  skill  gets  quantitatively  improved  further  for  operational services of India Meteorological Department (IMD).
- (b) Details of funds allocated for the Mission during the last three years and the current year is as under:
- (c)     Targets  were  to  develop  a  state  of  the  art  dynamical  prediction system  for  monsoon  rainfall  (over  Indian  region)  on  different  time scales  (e.g.,  short  range,  medium  range,  extended  range  and seasonal time scales) with reasonably good prediction skill.

|   S.No. | Financial Year   |   Rupees in Crore |
|---------|------------------|-------------------|
|       1 | 2013-14          |            185.05 |
|       2 | 2014-15          |             78.99 |
|       3 | 2015-16          |             63.43 |
|       4 | 2016-17          |             62.12 |

Year wise achievements are placed in Annexure-1.

- (d) Government has received 75 project proposals from National as well as  International  institutes  in  this  regard.  These  project  proposals have  been  reviewed  on  the  basis  of  their  scientific  merit  and suitable  projects  were  recommended  for  funding  through  Monsoon Mission. On recommendation of the Scientific Review & Monitoring Committee  (SRMC)  and  other  related  Committees,  the  Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) of Monsoon Mission approved 40 projects.
- (e) The  present  long  range  forecast  system  based  on  the  statistical models has shown some useful skill in predicting all India seasonal rainfall including the deficient monsoon season rainfall during 2015. However,  in  order  to  overcome  the  limitations  of  the  statistical models  used  so  far,  dynamical  coupled  ocean-atmospheric  model framework  is  put  under  exhaustive  performance  evaluation  under the National Monsoon Mission.

## Annexure-1

| S. No.   | Achievements made under this mission in the country during each of the last four years (2012-2016)   | Achievements made under this mission in the country during each of the last four years (2012-2016)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1.       | 2012-2013                                                                                            | Experimental real-time seasonal prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon, using ocean -atmosphere coupled dynamical model CFSv2, was initiated at IITM and the predictions were provided to IMD. Short range forecasts were provided by IMD and medium range by NCMRWF (using UM of UKMO), with reasonably good skill.                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
|          | 2013-14                                                                                              | In addition to above activities, experimental real- time Extended Range Prediction of active and break spells (ERPAS) of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, up to 4 pentad lead (i.e., 20 days in advance) was initiated at IITM, using an indigenously developed Ensemble Prediction system (EPS), based on the state-of-the-art CFSv2.                                                                                                                                                                                        |
|          | 2014-2015                                                                                            | 'Extended Range Prediction of active and break spells' was certified with ISO 9001:2008 standards in 2015, as it was one of the best prediction systems in the world, for predicting the active/break cycle of Monsoon with moderate prediction skill. IITM initiated to provide Outlook of major climate phenomena (e.g. El-Nino & IOD). Lot of model development works were carried out for improving the physics (land surface, convection, sea-ice, microphysics, etc.) of the model and model resolution was increased. |
|          | 2015-2016                                                                                            | In addition to above activities, an In - house Ocean Data Assimilation system was set up. India could predict 2015 drought with good accuracy when all other world leading Climate centres were suggesting that it will be near normal monsoon year.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         |
|          | 2016-2017                                                                                            | In addition to all above activities, Short-range prediction efforts were recently initiated by IITM. A state of the art Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), based on 21 ensemble member, have been implemented at ESSO-IITM for generating high resolution short range forecast. Hot weather season outlook for 2016 summer (April- June) is issued for the country.                                                                                                                                                     |