Lok Sabha Question No. 2923 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-05-11
Subject: Monsoon Forecasts
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: HEENA VIJAYKUMAR GAVIT, K. GOPAL, GAJANAN CHANDRAKANT KIRTIKAR, RAJEEV SHANKARRAO SATAV, SUPRIYA SADANAND SULE, VIJAYSINH MOHITE PATIL, SUNIL BALIRAM GAIKWAD, KUNWAR HARIBANSH SINGH, JAYAKUMAR JAYAVARDHAN

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 2923 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, May 11, 2016

## Monsoon Forecasts

## 2923. DR. HEENA VIJAYKUMAR GAVIT:

DR. K. GOPAL: SHRI GAJANAN KIRTIKAR:

SHRI SATAV RAJEEV: SHRIMATI SUPRIYA SULE:

SHRI MOHITE PATIL VIJAYSINH SHANKARRAO:

DR. SUNIL BALIRAM GAIKWAD:

KUNWAR HARIBANSH SINGH:

DR. J. JAYAVARDHAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was accurate during each of the last three years and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (b) whether IMD has not announced the exact timing of arrival of monsoon this year and if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor;
- (c) whether a research institute in Germany has claimed a novel method to forecast the monsoon correctly and if so, the details thereof;
- (d) whether the Government is in touch with the institute or proposes to make use of this technology and if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor; and
- (e) whether  IMD  is  likely  to  come  up  with  second  stage  prediction  of current monsoon in the month of June and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) The monsoon forecast during last three years was as under;

| Year   | Forecast                              | Forecast        | Actual (% of LPA)   |
|--------|---------------------------------------|-----------------|---------------------|
| Year   | Issued in April                       | Issued in June  | Actual (% of LPA)   |
| 2013   | 98 % of LPA ± 5                       | 98 % of LPA ± 4 | 106                 |
| 2014   | 95 % of LPA ± 5                       | 93 % of LPA ± 4 | 88                  |
| 2015   | 93% of LPA with a model error of ± 5% | 88% of LPA ±4%  | 86                  |

The forecast for monsoon during 2014 & 2015 were correct. However during  2013,  the  monsoon  forecast  issued  by  India  Meteorological Department (IMD) was marginally under estimated. It may be mentioned here that both 2014 & 2015   were deficient monsoon years.

- (b) Climatologically  monsoon  is  expected  to  reach  South  Kerala  by  31 st May. The forecast for the 2016 monsoon onset date will be issued on 15th May, 2016.

Monsoon onset over Kerala follows the monsoon advancement over the Andaman  Sea  that  climatologically  falls  around  20th   May.  So  as  to account for the Monsoon advancement over Andaman Sea, the monsoon onset forecast over Kerala is issued around middle of May annually.

- (c-d)  Although Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany has claimed  a  noval  method  to  forecast  monsoon  onset  over  the  Eastern Ghats  (North  Coastal  Andhra  Pradesh  and  adjoining  Southern  Odisha) and  monsoon  withdrawal  from  North  Pakistan  only,  the  methodology adopted  has  some  limitations  and  uncertainty.  At  the  same  time,  the respective  withdrawal  predictions  have  shown  reduced  skill  during recent 2010-2014 period. As the methodology has not been tested for monsoon onset over the South Kerala, no tangible gain is expected for our operational onset monsoon forecast.

However, IMD issues the monsoon  onset forecast based on an indigenously developed model. The forecasts for monsoon onset for last 10 years have been found correct.

- (e) IMD  will  issue  the  updated  forecast  by  the  first  week  of  June  2016 based  on  the  operational  model  and  with  the  updated  data  upto  May 2016.

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