Lok Sabha Question No. 146 (STARRED), answered on 2016-05-04
Subject: Monsoon Prediction
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: A. ARUNMOZHITHEVAN, M. UDHAYAKUMAR

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## STARRED QUESTION NO. *146 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, MAY 04, 2016

## MONSOON PREDICTION

## *146.       SHRI A. ARUNMOZHITHEVAN:

ADV. M. UDHAYAKUMAR:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether some of the private forecasting agencies in the country, India Meteorological Department (IMD) and several foreign agencies have predicted normal or above normal monsoon and premonsoon rainfall during the current year;
- (b) if so, the details of rainfall predicted, agency-wise  and  the areas/location  which  are  expected  to  receive  highest  and  lowest rainfall in this season;
- (c) the  time  by  which  monsoon  is  expected  to  arrive  all  over  the country;
- (d) whether average error in IMD's monsoon forecasts has come down and if so, the details thereof; and
- (e) whether there is scope for improvement for accurate prediction of monsoon in the coming years and if so, the details thereof  along with the steps taken/being taken by the Government in this regard?

## ANSWER

MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) to (e): A Statement is laid on the Table of the House.

STATEMENT LAID ON THE TABLE OF THE LOK SABHA IN REPLY (a) to (e) TO STARRED  QUESTION  NO.  *146  REGARDING  'MONSOON  PREDICTION'  TO  BE

ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, May 04, 2016.

- (a) Yes Madam. During the current year (2016), normal/ above normal rainfall has been predicted by many forecasting agencies including India Meteorological Department (IMD). No forecast assessment for pre-monsoon season is issued by any agencies.

IMD's  Operational  Long  Range  Forecast  (LRF)  for  the  2016  Southwest monsoon rainfall is as follows:

Quantitatively,  the  monsoon  seasonal  rainfall  is  likely  to  be  106%  of  the Long  Period  Average  (LPA)  with  a  model  error  of  ±  5%.  The  LPA  of  the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

- (b) The details of Monsoon rainfall (2016) predicted, agency-wise is presented in Annexure-I.
- (c) Climatologically monsoon is expected to reach South Kerala either end of May or early days of June (by 31st May ± 4 days) and forecast for which will be issued on 15th  May, 2016.
- (d) The forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala has been correct (within the forecast  limits)  during  all  the  10  years  (2005-2014)  since  issuing  of operational forecast for the event started in 2005.

IMD introduced the present  LRF models during  2007 following review of the  old  forecasting  system.  IMD'S  LRF  since  2007  has  been  more  skillful than the forecast before 2007. This effort has led to appreciable improvements  in  the  efficiency  of  models  in  making  better  and  better forecasts.

It may be mentioned that skill of IMD's present seasonal forecasting system for  India  as  a  whole  is  better  than  other  countries  in  the  world.  The Variation of all India rainfall during monsoon for the last 20 years is given in Annexure-II.

- (e) There is always scope for improvement for accurate prediction of monsoon in  the  coming  years.  For  this,  there  have  been  model  developments  for better  skill  of  prediction  through  the  Monsoon  Mission  program  of  the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

Under  the  National  Monsoon  Mission  initiative  institutions  of  the  Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, IMD, Indian National Centre for  Ocean  Information  Services  (INCOIS),  Hyderabad  and  National  Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA, have developed a  coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model for a) improved prediction of the monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one  season)  and  b)  improved  prediction  of  temperature,  rainfall  and extreme  weather  events  on  short  to  medium  range  time  scale  (up  to  15 for days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved  further operational services of IMD.

Forecasts for 2016 southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole received from some of the private forecasting agencies and several foreign agencies.

|   S.No. | Institutes                                                     | Forecast                                                                                                                                                                                                                 |
|---------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       1 | Skymet                                                         | 105% (with an error margin of ±4%)                                                                                                                                                                                       |
|       2 | Weather Risk Management Services                               | Roughly more than 104% in most parts of the country, except the northeast and with well-distributed rainfall over the country                                                                                            |
|       3 | Onkari Prasad (Retired IMD)                                    | 100%                                                                                                                                                                                                                     |
|       4 | Center for Disaster Mitigation Jain University, Bangalore      | 98.2% ± 5.52%                                                                                                                                                                                                            |
|       5 | ECMWF,UK Coupled Model                                         | Above Normal rainfall is most likely over some parts of Northwest India and some parts of southeastern Peninsular India. Normal rainfall is most likely over most of the remaining parts of the country.                 |
|       5 | EUROSIP Multi Model Ensemble                                   | Normal rainfall over most parts of the country                                                                                                                                                                           |
|       6 | International research Institute for climate and Society, USA  | Climatological probabilities for most parts of the country except northern parts of the country where below normal is most likely.                                                                                       |
|       7 | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) | Negative rainfall anomalies over northern parts of the country, central India and most parts of west coast. Positive rainfall anomalies are predicted over remaining areas with highest magnitudes over northeast India. |
|       8 | APEC Climate Center                                            | Normal rainfall is most likely over east and northeast India. Above normal is most likely over remaining parts of the country.                                                                                           |
|       9 | Met Office, UK                                                 | Above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country.                                                                                                                                                     |

Annexure-II

| Year   | Forecast          | Forecast         | Actual (% of LPA)   |
|--------|-------------------|------------------|---------------------|
| 1994   | 92% of LPA ± 4%   | 92% of LPA ± 4%  | 110                 |
| 1995   | 97% of LPA ± 4%   | 97% of LPA ± 4%  | 100                 |
| 1996   | 96% of LPA ± 4%   | 96% of LPA ± 4%  | 102                 |
| 1997   | 92% of LPA ± 4%   | 92% of LPA ± 4%  | 102                 |
| 1998   | 99% of LPA ± 4%   | 99% of LPA ± 4%  | 106                 |
| 1999   | 108% of LPA ± 4%  | 108% of LPA ± 4% | 96                  |
| 2000   | 99% of LPA ± 4%   | 99% of LPA ± 4%  | 92                  |
| 2001   | 98% of LPA ± 4%   | 98% of LPA ± 4%  | 92                  |
| 2002   | 101 of LPA %± 4%  | 101 of LPA %± 4% | 81                  |
|        | Issued in April   | Issued in June   |                     |
| 2003   | 96% of LPA ± 5%   | 98% of LPA ± 4%  | 102                 |
| 2004   | 100% of LPA ± 5%  | 100% of LPA ± 4% | 87                  |
| 2005   | 98% of LPA ± 5%   | 98% of LPA ± 4%  | 99                  |
| 2006   | 93% of LPA ± 5%   | 92% of LPA ± 4%  | 99                  |
| 2007   | 95% of LPA ± 5%   | 93% of LPA ± 4%  | 105                 |
| 2008   | 99% of LPA ± 5    | 100% of LPA ± 4  | 98                  |
| 2009   | 96% of LPA ± 5    | 93 % of LPA ± 4  | 78                  |
| 2010   | 98 % of LPA ± 5   | 102 % of LPA ± 4 | 102                 |
| 2011   | 98 % of LPA ± 5   | 95 % of LPA ± 4  | 102                 |
| 2012   | 99 % of LPA ± 5   | 96 % of LPA ± 4  | 93                  |
| 2013   | 98 % of LPA ± 5   | 98 % of LPA ± 4  | 106                 |
| 2014   | 95 % of LPA ± 5   | 93 % of LPA ± 4  | 88                  |
| 2015   | 93% of LPA with a | 88% of LPA ±4%   | 86%                 |