Lok Sabha Question No. 1631 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2015-12-09
Subject: Technology for Flood and Land Sliding
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: JANAK RAM

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1631

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 09, 2015

## Technology for Flood and Land Sliding

## 1631  SHRI JANAK RAM:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government has any modern radar technology to forecast flood and land sliding in the country;
- (b) if  so,  the  details  thereof  and  the  details  of  each  radars  installed,  State-wise including Bihar;
- (c) if not, the reasons therefor and the steps taken/being taken by the Government in this regard; and
- (d) the  major  successes  achieved  regarding  the  weather  forecast  during  the  last three years and the current year?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(Shri Y. S. Chowdary)

- (a) There is no such radar based technology to forecast flood and land sliding in the Country.  Earth  System  Science  Organization-India  Meteorological  Department (ESSO-IMD) operates a network of Weather Radars, which is helpful in issuing current weather forecast/ Nowcasts of severe weather and Cyclone monitoring. This service activity currently covers 156 urban centres under which nowcast of severe weather (Thunderstorms; heavy rainfall from lows/depressions over the land) in 3-6h range is issued. Origin, development/movement of severe weather phenomena  are  regularly  monitored  through  Doppler  Weather  Radars  (DWRs) and  with  all  available  other  observing  systems  (Automatic  Weather  StationAWSs;  Automatic  Rain  Gauge  -ARGs;  Automatic  Weather  Observing  SystemsAWOS; satellite based monitoring systems.  However, consequences of heavy rainfall events leading to land sliding and floods over different river basins of the country are dealt differently.  River basin floods are dealt by the Central Water Commission (CWC).  Flood Meteorological Offices (FMOs) operated by the ESSOIMD  provide  meteorological  support  to  the  CWC  for  issuing  flood  warnings  in respect  of  the  43  rivers  of  India  covering  137  sub-basins.  CWC  issues  flood forecasts 6 h to 30 h in advance for 176 stations using QPF received from FMOs of  ESSO-IMD  and  in-situ  hydro-meteorological  data.  As  on  today,  no  warning system exists for land sliding however, land sliding prone vulnerable zones are mapped so as to alert  respective  local  governments  to  put  such  areas  under watch in association with heavy rainfall warnings as and when issued for such zones.
- (b) The details of Doppler Radar Systems installed in various states including Bihar is given in Annexure-I
- (c) Improvement of weather forecasting services is a continuous process. As part of its XI five year plan, Government has initiated a comprehensive modernization programme for ESSO-IMD covering upgradation of (i) observation systems (ii) advanced data assimilation tools (iii) advanced communication and IT infrastructure (iv) high performance computing systems and (v) intensive/sophisticated training of ESSO-IMD personnel to facilitate the implementation  of  advanced  global/regional/  meso-scale  prediction  models  for improving the accuracy of severe weather forecasts in all temporal and spatial scales and for quick dissemination of weather forecast assessments/warnings to the users.

Operational  implementation  of  improved  forecast  suite  of  models  after  the commissioning  of the High  Performance  Computing  (HPC)  systems  have enhanced the weather forecasting capacities through assimilating all available global satellite radiance data for the production of forecast products at 22km grid globally and 9km/3km grid over India/regional/mega city domains. The HPC systems have been recently  up-scaled  to  1.2petaflops  to  support  the  ongoing efforts.

- (d) the  major  successes  achieved  regarding  the  weather  forecast  during  the  last three years and the current year are as under:
- (i) Verification report on the performance of long range forecast for the period 2012 to 2015 SW monsoon Rainfall is given below:
- (ii)  In  short  &  medium  range,  accuracy  of monsoon heavy rainfall warnings in the last three years is given below:
-  False Alarm Rate (FAR) & Missing Rate (MR) have been reduced by 77% & 36% in last three years (2013-15) as compared to its mean values from 2002-12.
-  Probability of Detection (PoD) &Critical Success Index (CSI) have been improved by 38% & 46% in last three years (2013-15) as compared to its mean values from 2002-12.

| S.No.   | Year   | ALL India- South West Monsoon Rainfall   | ALL India- South West Monsoon Rainfall   |
|---------|--------|------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|
|         |        | Forecast (% of LPA)                      | Actual Rainfall (% of LPA)               |
| 1       | 2012   | 96 ± 4                                   | 93                                       |
| 2       | 2013   | 98 ± 4                                   | 106                                      |
| 3       | 2014   | 87 ± 4                                   | 88                                       |
| 4       | 2015   | 88 ± 4                                   | 86                                       |

## (iii) The improvements in Tropical Cyclone Forecasts during 2011-2015 against the forecasts during 2006-10 is as follows:

| Parameter                      | 2006-10   | 2011-15   | Change          |
|--------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------------|
| 24-hr track forecast error     | 141 km    | 97 km     | Reduced by 31%  |
| 24-hr track forecast skill     | 24%       | 49%       | Improved by 25% |
| 24-hr landfall point error     | 99 km     | 56 km     | Reduced by 43%  |
| 24-hr landfall time error      | 6.9 hr    | 4.2 hr    | Reduced by 39%  |
| 24-hr intensity forecast error | 30 kmph   | 27 kmph   | Reduced by 10%  |
| 24-hr intensity forecast skill | 12%       | 12%       | No change       |

Annexure-I

|   S.No. | Name of Station                | Commissioned on   |
|---------|--------------------------------|-------------------|
|       1 | Chennai (Tamil Nadu)           | 22.02.2002        |
|       2 | Kolkata (West Bengal)          | 29.01.2003        |
|       3 | Machilipatnam (Andhra Pradesh) | 08.12.2004        |
|       4 | Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) | 27.07.2006        |
|       5 | Sriharikota (Andhra Pradesh)   | 09.04.2004        |
|       6 | Delhi (Palam)                  | 22.04.2010        |
|       7 | Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh)     | 16.07.2010        |
|       8 | Nagpur (Maharashtra)           | 28.02.2011        |
|       9 | Agartala (Tripura)             | 13.03.2011        |
|      10 | Patna (Bihar)                  | 27.05.2011        |
|      11 | Lucknow (Uttar Pradesh)        | 16.08.2011        |
|      12 | Patiala (Punjab)               | 13.10.2011        |
|      13 | Mohanbari (Assam)              | 02.06.2012        |
|      14 | Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh)        | 06.11.2013        |
|      15 | Paradip (Odisha)               | 19.11.2015        |
|      16 | Karaikal (Tamil Nadu)          | 29-10-2015        |
|      18 | Mumbai (Maharashtra)           | 25.08.2015        |
|      20 | New Delhi (HQ)(Delhi)          | 19.12.2011        |
|      21 | Jaipur (Rajasthan)             | 28.01.2012        |
|      22 | Srinagar (J&K)                 | 01-05-2015        |