Lok Sabha Question No. 167 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-02-24
Subject: Irregular Monsoon
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: BHAIRON PRASAD MISHRA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 167

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2016

## IRREGULAR MONSOON

## 167.       SHRI BHAIRON PRASAD MISHRA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government has formulated any scheme or conducted any  survey  to  ascertain  the  reasons  for  the  drought  and  irregular monsoon in some of the parts in the country including in Bundelkhand region during the last one decade;
- (b)
- if so, the details thereof; and
- (c) the action plan likely to be implemented for the prevention of said reasons?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a)-(b)  Yes  Madam.  Seasonal  quantum  of  rainfall  in  Bundelkhand  region heavily  depends  on  the  movement  of  Monsoon  Depressions  (low pressure systems) over the region after crossing the east coast of India and moving in north west direction. Studies carried out suggest a  statiscally  significant  decreasing  trend  in  the  seasonal  monsoon depression frequency.

Accordingly  for  the  reasons  explained  above,  the  Bundelkhand region by and large continues to receive deficient rainfall. This could be part of the natural variability of the Indian monsoon system and therefore, it could be reversed naturally.

Rainfall  situation  for  the  districts  in  Bundelkhand  for  the  last  11 years (2005-2015) has been presented in Annexure-I.

The monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole over a long period data set has not shown any significant trend. However, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Kerala have witnessed slight decrease in rainfall, and 8  sub  divisions  namely Gangetic West Bengal, West Uttar Pradesh, Jammu  and Kashmir, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Interior Karnataka show  increasing  trend.  Although,  the  long  period  average  rainfall during  Monsoon  (June  to  September)  for  the  India  as  a  whole remained more or less at 890 mm, the actual quantum of seasonal rainfall received during last 11 years is presented below to present interannual variability of monsoon:

|   Year |   Monsoon (June to September) rainfall in mm | RAINFALL IN % DEPARTURE   |   % of District with Deficiant/Scanty Rainfall |
|--------|----------------------------------------------|---------------------------|------------------------------------------------|
|   2005 |                                        874.4 | -1%                       |                                             28 |
|   2006 |                                        889.4 | 0%                        |                                             40 |
|   2007 |                                        944.6 | 6%                        |                                             27 |
|   2008 |                                        877.4 | -2%                       |                                             24 |
|   2009 |                                        698.1 | -22%                      |                                             59 |
|   2010 |                                        910.6 | 2%                        |                                             31 |
|   2011 |                                        901.2 | 2%                        |                                             24 |
|   2012 |                                        823.6 | -7%                       |                                             41 |
|   2013 |                                        937.4 | 6%                        |                                             28 |
|   2014 |                                        777.5 | -12%                      |                                             46 |
|   2015 |                                        760.6 | -14 %                     |                                             39 |

- (c) The Indian council of Agricultural Research (ICAR)-Central Research Institute on Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) has mapped 572 districts of the  country  including  all  districts  of  Bundelkhand  region  for  their vulnerability  to  drought  and  irregular  monsoon  in  climate  change perspectives using various indicators to assess sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity.  Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh state lies  in  high  to  medium  variability  index  to  climate  change  and    of Uttar  Pradesh  state  in  very  high  to  high  index.  The  details  of Vulnerability Indices to Climate Change for bundlekhand districts are placed in Annexure-II.

ICAR in association with State Agricultural Universities and concerned  state  departments  has  developed  district  contingency plans  including  crop  advisories  to  tackle  any  eventuality  due  to change  in  weather  pattern  affecting  the  agriculture  sector  across the country within the cropping season. So far, contingency plans for 600  districts  of  25  states  have  been  prepared  and  uploaded  at www.farmer.gov.in,  www.crida.in    and  www.agricoop.nic.in.  The contingency  plans  are  also  being  constantly  updated  to  meet  the emerging  situations.  The  National  Agricultural  Research  System comprising ICAR, central agricultural universities and State Agriculture Universities (SAUs) are taking adequate steps in development of high yielding varieties suitable for biotic and abiotic stresses including deficient rainfall/drought. Short duration varieties have  also  been  released  to  escape  or  overcome  the  vagaries  of weather condition.

Studies  conducted  by  ICAR-Central  Agroforestry Research  Institute (CAFRI),  Jhansi  has  successfully  demonstrated  higher  resilience against droughts and enhanced livelihood security through adoption of  agro  forestry  based  watershed  technologies  in  drought-prone Bundelkhand region (Garhkundar-Dabar watershed).

## ANNEXURE-I

Percentage departure of southwest monsoon rainfall from long period average during last 12 years for the districts in Bundelkhand

| State         | District   | 2004         | 2005         | 2006         | 2007         | 2008         | 2009         | 2010   | 2011   | 2012   | 2013   | 2014   | 2015   |
|---------------|------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Madhya        |            |              |              |              |              |              |              |        |        |        |        |        |        |
| Pradesh       | Chhatarpur | -10          | -9           | -45          | -53          | -8           | -43          | -17    | 9      | -18    | 29     | -46    | -37    |
| Pradesh       | Damoh      | -9           | 53           | -30          | -22          | 17           | -44          | -4     | 25     | -2     | 54     | -37    | -32    |
| Pradesh       | Datia      | -34          | -42          | -47          | -34          | 34           | -19          | -10    | -5     | 13     | 26     | -29    | -31    |
| Pradesh       | Panna      | 12           | 33           | -49          | -67          | -46          | -40          | -37    | -2     | -2     | 32     | -39    | -45    |
| Pradesh       | Sagar      | -12          | 44           | -16          | -35          | -8           | -22          | -29    | 16     | -19    | 69     | -33    | -41    |
| Pradesh       | Tikamgarh  | -46          | -28          | -44          | -65          | 34           | -43          | -47    | 30     | -8     | 30     | -19    | -37    |
| Uttar Pradesh | Jalaun     | -32          | -16          | -53          | -61          | -7           | -50          | -18    | -13    | -16    | -2     | -54    | -57    |
| Uttar Pradesh | Jhansi     | -35          | -36          | -61          | -66          | 33           | -47          | -36    | 2      | -29    | 11     | -52    | -53    |
| Uttar Pradesh | Lalitpur   | -30          | 2            | -35          | -43          | -23          | -41          | -30    | 39     | -8     | 58     | -33    | -66    |
| Uttar Pradesh | MAHOBA     | New District | New District | New District | New District | New District | New District | -46    | -21    | -31    | -5     | -67    | -68    |
| Uttar Pradesh | Hamirpur   | -37          | -22          | -44          | -48          | 33           | -29          | -37    | 10     | -27    | 15     | -57    | -59    |

## Annexure-I I

## District-wise Vulnerability Indices to Climate Change for the districts in Bundelkhand

| State          | Vulnerability Indices to Climate Change                                                                                | Vulnerability Indices to Climate Change                                                                                                                                    | Vulnerability Indices to Climate Change                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 | Vulnerability Indices to Climate Change                                                                                                                | Vulnerability Indices to Climate Change   |
|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|
|                | Very High                                                                                                              | High                                                                                                                                                                       | Medium                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  | Low                                                                                                                                                    | Very Low                                  |
| Madhya Pradesh | Jhabua, Rajgarh, Mandsaur, Shajapur, Dindori, Ratlam, Dhar, Sidhi, Vidisha, Shivpuri, Ujjain, Bhind, Barwani, Shahdol, | Rewa, MandlaDewas, Neemuch, Khargone(West Nimar), Betul, Guna, Sehore, Umaria, Damoh, Panna, Satna, Chhatarpur, Datia, Chhindwara, Katni.                                  | Seoni, Morena, Sheopur Kalan, Raisen, Bhopal, Khandwa(East Nimar), Tikamgarh, Indore, Sagar.                                                                                                                                                                                            | Narsinghpur, Jabalpur, Gwalior, Harda.                                                                                                                 | Balaghat, Hoshangabad.                    |
| Uttar Pradesh  | Mahoba, Chitrakut, Banda, Hamirpur, Ballia, Bahraich, Kaushambi, Mathura, Deoria, Shravasti, Jhansi, Siddharth Nagar,  | Bagpat, Lalitpur, Budaun, Gonda, Balrampur, Mau, Ghazipur, Sonbhadra, Fatehpur, Raebareily, Basti, Kushinagar, Shahjahanpur, Jalaun, Agra, Jaunpur, Faizabad, Maharajganj. | Mirzapur, Hardoi, Kanpur (Dehat), Aligarh, Sant Ravidas Nagar, Pratapgarh, Sant Kabir Nagar, Hathras, Farrukhabad, Azamgarh, Allahabad, Muzaffarnagar, Unnao, Jyotiba Phulenagar, Gorakhpur, Varanasi, Etah, Saharanpur, Auraiya, Kannauj, Bareilly, Sitapur, Ambedkar Nagar, Sultanpur | Etawah, Kheri, Firozabad, Bijnor, Pilibhit, Barabanki, Mainpuri, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Kanpur City, Bulandshahar, Chandauli, Lucknow, Moradabad, Rampur. | Ghaziabad, Meerut.                        |