Lok Sabha Question No. 5464 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2026-03-25
Subject: Model-based District-Level Social-Economic Estimates By NSO
Ministry: STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION
Asked by: Shri Biplab Kumar Deb

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

## LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 5464 TO BE ANSWERED ON 25.03.2026

## MODEL-BASED DISTRICT-LEVEL SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ESTIMATES BY NSO 5464.    SHRI BIPLAB KUMAR DEB:

Will the Minister of STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the National Statistics  Office  has  undertaken  studies  to develop model-based district-level estimates for key socioeconomic indicators and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) the methodology adopted for generating such district-level estimates  and  the  role  of  auxiliary  data  sources  in  improving accuracy;
- (c) the  manner  in  which  these  statistical  models  are  expected  to assist in evidence-based and targeted local development planning;
- (d) whether the Government has any plan to extend this model-based estimation approach and socio-economic indicators to other States particularly in the State of Tripura; and
- (e) if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

MINISTER  OF  STATE  (INDEPENDENT  CHARGE)  OF  THE  MINISTRY  OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION; MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) OF THE MINISTRY OF PLANNING AND MINISTER  OF  STATE  IN  THE  MINISTRY  OF  CULTURE  [RAO  INDERJIT SINGH]

- (a): The Steering Committee for National Sample Surveys (NSS) recommended  that  MoSPI  should  undertake  a  pilot  study  on  the feasibility for generating the model-based district-level estimates based on  the  Household  Consumption  Expenditure  Survey  (HCES):  2022-23 data. To explore the possibility of generation of district level estimates

of  Monthly  Per  Capita  Consumption  Expenditure  (MPCE),  a  committee was  formed  under  the  Chairpersonship  of  Dr.  Mausumi  Bose,  former Professor, Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Kolkata with members from the  NSS  and  DES,  Uttar  Pradesh.  The  Committee  was  mandated  to estimate MPCE figures for the districts of Uttar Pradesh utilizing modelbased  techniques, more  specifically, Small Area Estimation (SAE) methods.

(b): Model-based techniques, adopting the Fay -Herriot (FH) and Spatial Fay -Herriot (SFH) models under the Small Area Estimation framework to borrow strength from covariate data and neighboring districts was used to generate reliable estimates of MPCE for the districts of Uttar Pradesh. The  detailed  estimation  methodology  along  with  its  benefits  and  use cases  to  other  identical  scenarios  have  been  mentioned  in  the  report available on the website of MoSPI at https://new.mospi.gov.in/uploads/publications\_reports/publications\_reports17616412096 12\_6875c53f-d8eb-4458-be3e-1e12a9e528c9\_Compiled\_Report\_final17092025.pdf

(c): Using the methodology as adopted by the Committee, estimates of MPCE values at sub-state level for the state of Uttar Pradesh have been generated. These estimates of MPCE figures, in turn, would provide an idea of the economic  conditions  of the households  and  thereby, facilitating policy decisions for implementation of developmental programmes.

(d)  and  (e):   The  approach  adopted  in  this  study  can  be  extended  to other  States  including  Tripura  and  other  socio-economic  indicators. States  have  been  encouraged  to  adopt  similar  approaches  to  fill  data gaps  and  generate  district-level  estimates,  especially  where  direct survey  estimates  are  weak  due  to  small  sample  sizes  or  are  not available.

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