Lok Sabha Question No. 1632 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2015-12-09
Subject: Rainfall Prediction
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: VIJAY KUMAR S.R., SISIR KUMAR ADHIKARI

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1632

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 09, 2015

## RAINFALL

- 1632  SHRI S. R. VIJAYAKUMAR: SHRI SISIR KUMAR ADHIKARI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether less than normal monsoon has been registered in several parts of the country during the current year;
- (b) if so, the details and its impact thereof and the reasons therefor along with the States most affected by deficient rainfall;
- (c) whether the prediction regarding monsoon this year was not accurate; and
- (d) if so, the measures taken by the Government for accurate prediction of monsoon?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) Yes Madam.
- (b) The  SW  monsoon  season  rainfall  (during  June  to  September,  2015)  over  the  country  as  a whole was about 86% of its long period average (LPA). Thus, years 2014 & 2015 were two consecutive years having deficient monsoon rainfall. Seasonal rainfall was 83% of its LPA over Northwest India, 84% of its LPA over Central India, 85% of its LPA over South Peninsula and  92% of its LPA over Northeast India. The states most affected by deficit rainfall include Maharashtra,  Telengana,  Bihar,  Uttar  Pradesh,  Uttarakhand,  Himachal  Pradesh,  Punjab, Haryana,  some  parts  of  Karnataka,  Gujarata  &  Madhya  Pradesh.  The  major  impacts  of deficient rainfall affects farm yields due to scarcity of water and even affects safe drinking water supplies.

One  of  the  most  important  reasons  for  deficient  rainfall  over  the  country  (during  2015 summer monsoon season) is the occurrence of strong El-Nino (warming of Sea-surface water over the equatorial Pacific ocean) event, which persisted over the equatorial Pacific. Based on  dynamical  model  predictions,  Earth  System  Science  Organisation-Indian  Institute  of Tropical Meteorology (ESSO-IITM) is providing the updates for El-Nino status & predictions. It was  predicted  in  advance  that  'The  El-Nino  effect  is  expected  to  be  moderate  to  strong during the monsoon season (June to September, 2015) and it is likely to cause decrease in seasonal (June to September) rainfall quantum over Indian region'.

- (c) No Madam.  The  prediction regarding monsoon  this year was accurate. ESSO-India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has predicted monsoon 2015 seasonal rainfall of 88% of LPA ±4% model error way back in April 2015 and the season (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was realised 86% of its LPA.
- (d) During the XII Plan, under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, other institutions of ESSO, ESSO-IITM  Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean  Information  Services  (ESSO-INCOIS), Hyderabad  and  National  Centre  for  Medium  Range  Weather  Forecasting  (ESSO-NCMRWF), NOIDA have embarked upon to build  a  state-of-the-art  coupled  ocean-atmospheric  climate model  for  a)  improved  prediction  of  monsoon  rainfall  on  extended  range  to  seasonal  time scale  (16  days  to  one  season)  and  b)  improved  prediction  of  temperature,  rainfall  and extreme  weather  events  on  short  to  medium  range  time  scale  (up  to  15  days)  so  that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of ESSO-IMD.

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