Lok Sabha Question No. 3158 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2026-03-11
Subject: Major Improvements in Weather Forecasting
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri Ashish Dubey, Shri Arun Govil, Smt. Anita Subhadarshini

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 3158 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 11 TH  MARCH, 2026

## MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN WEATHER FORECASTING

3158.   SMT. ANITA SUBHADARSHINI:

SHRI ARUN GOVIL:

SHRI ASHISH DUBEY:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether major improvements have been achieved in weather forecast accuracy, early warning dissemination system and climate services during the last three years and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) the manner in which the said interventions have provided measurable socio-economic benefits  to  farmers,  fishermen,  vulnerable  communities  and  common  people  in  the affected areas;
- (c) the  progress  made  so  far  in  expanding  the  Doppler  weather  radar  coverage,  urban climate platforms and heat action plans in collaboration with States; and
- (d) the details of roadmap formulated to strengthen last-mile access to weather and climate advisories?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) Yes. There has been significant improvements in the early warning systems, including improvements in the accuracy of forecasting of various extreme weather events like cyclones, heat waves, heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms in recent years. The details are given below.

Improvements in Cyclone Forecasts: The annual average track forecast errors in 2025 were 80 km, 120 km, and 204 km, respectively, at 24, 48, and 72 hrs, compared with the past five-year average errors of 72, 111, and 154 km based on data from 2020-2024. The annual average landfall forecast errors for 2025 have been 76 km, 82 km, and 121 km for 24, 48, and 72 hrs lead periods, respectively, against the past five years' average errors of 16 km, 39 km, and 70 km during 2020-2024. The annual average absolute error  (AE)  in  intensity  forecast  has  been  3.1  knots,  2.7  knots,  and  3.9  knots, respectively, for 24, 48, and 72 hrs lead periods, against the past five-year average of 5.9, 8.3, and 9.8 knots during 2020-2024.

Monsoonal  rainfall  and  heavy  rainfall  warnings: The  India  Meteorological Department (IMD) has been following a seamless forecasting strategy for monsoonal rainfall. As per this strategy, it issues forecasts and warnings on different time scales and  for  different  spatial  scales.  Nowcasting-  up  to  six  hours  for  all  types  of  severe weather at all districts and around 1200 stations. Short to medium range (up to 7 days) forecasts  for  rainfall  over  cities,  blocks,  districts,  and  meteorological  subdivisions. Extended range (up to 4 weeks) forecasts for 36 meteorological subdivisions. Monthly and  seasonal  long-range  forecasts  for  rainfall  for  the  whole  country  and  for  a homogenous region.

The latest assessment of the accuracy of its seasonal long range for Southwest Monsoon in the current year 2025  shows it was highly accurate and the forecast, issued in April 2025, for the southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was 105% of long period average (LPA) while the actual season rainfall for the country as a whole was 108 % of LPA and it was within range of the forecast issued. The spatial probability  forecasts  were  also  largely  accurate  across  most  regions  of  the  country. Similarly,  the  monthly  rainfall  forecasts  closely  matched  the  observed  values  and remained within the forecast limits.The latest assessment of Heavy rainfall Forecast Performance shows in 2025, the heavy rainfall forecast demonstrated high skill, with Probability of Detection of 0.85, indicating it was in overall accuracy.

IMD has adopted a new strategy for monthly and seasonal forecasting since 2021 based on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. The strategy utilizes coupled global climate models (CGCMs from various global climate prediction and research centers, including  IMD's  Monsoon  Mission  Climate  Forecasting  System  (MMCFS).  The performance of IMD's seasonal forecasting system has shown improvement following the adoption of the MME-based approach. The verification details of IMD's seasonal forecasts for All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall for the period 2021 to 2025 are given below:

|                            | ALL India Monsoon Rainfall (LPA)   | ALL India Monsoon Rainfall (LPA)   | ALL India Monsoon Rainfall (LPA)   |
|----------------------------|------------------------------------|------------------------------------|------------------------------------|
| Year                       | Actual (%)                         | Forecast (%)                       | Remark                             |
| 2021                       | 99                                 | 101                                | Accurate                           |
| 2022                       | 106.5                              | 103                                | Accurate                           |
| 2023                       | 95                                 | 96                                 | Accurate                           |
| 2024                       | 108                                | 106                                | Accurate                           |
| 2025                       | 108                                | 106                                | Accurate                           |
| ***Model error ± 4% of LPA | ***Model error ± 4% of LPA         | ***Model error ± 4% of LPA         | ***Model error ± 4% of LPA         |

Heat  waves: For  the  summer  of  2025,  the  Probability  of  Detection  of  heat  wave forecasts/warnings for the season (March-June), is 98% for a 1-day advance, indicating excellent detection capability. Forecast skill decreases with increasing lead time, with the  3-day-ahead  forecast  skill  at  75%  and  the  5-day  forecast  skill  at  46%  in  2025, compared to 68% and 50%, respectively, in 2022.

Thunderstorms: The 3-hourly thunderstorm (TS) nowcast (March-June), skill showed significant improvement for 2025 storm season, with the Probability of Detection as 0.92  in  2025,  which  was  0.83  in  2022.  For  24-hour  thunderstorm  forecasts,  the Probability of Detection was 0.89 in 2025.

- (b) The interventions undertaken by the India Meteorological Department have significantly contributed to measurable socio-economic benefits for farmers, fishermen, vulnerable  communities,  and  the  general  public,  particularly  in  disaster-prone  and climate-sensitive  areas.  The  manner  in  which  these  benefits  have  accrued  are  as follows:

Improved Agricultural Planning and Productivity: District-level  and  block-level weather forecasts, agrometeorological advisories, and seasonal outlooks enable farmers to make  informed  decisions  regarding  sowing,  irrigation,  fertilizer application, harvesting, and crop protection. This has resulted in reduced crop losses, optimized input costs, and improved yields.

Reduction in Loss of Life and Property: Early warnings related to cyclones, heavy rainfall,  heat  waves,  cold  waves,  thunderstorms,  and  lightning  have  enabled  timely evacuation, preparedness measures, and contingency planning. This has substantially minimized casualties and damage to livelihoods.

Enhanced Safety for Fishermen: Timely marine weather forecasts, cyclone alerts, and ocean  state  warnings  help  fishermen  avoid  venturing  into  the  sea  during  adverse conditions. This has reduced incidents of loss of life, damage to fishing vessels, and economic hardship.

Support to Disaster Management Authorities: Impact-based forecasting and realtime  monitoring  support  State  and  district  administrations  in  planning  relief  and response  operations.  Early  action  reduces  recovery  costs  and  safeguards  vulnerable communities.

Heatwave and Cold Wave Action  Plans: Forecast-based  advisories  have  enabled local administrations to implement heat action plans, adjust working hours, and ensure access to drinking water and shelters, thereby protecting outdoor workers, the elderly, and economically weaker sections.

Climate  Services  for  Long-term  Resilience  and  Anticipatory  Action  against Climate  Risk: Climate  data  services  and  seasonal  forecasts  assist  policymakers  in water  resource  management,  crop  insurance  planning,  reservoir  operations,  and infrastructure preparedness, contributing to long-term socio-economic resilience.

The measurable benefits are reflected in reduced disaster-related mortality, lower crop losses,  improved  marine  safety,  and  enhanced  preparedness  at  community  and administrative levels. Continuous modernization of forecasting systems and expansion of dissemination channels through mobile applications, SMS alerts, and coordination with State agencies further strengthen outreach to affected populations.

- (c)-(d)  Currently, there are a total of 48 DWRs installed and operational in India. This has helped IMD improve monitoring and forecasting of severe events such as cloudbursts, thunderstorms, lightning, heat waves, and cyclones. The  India Meteorological Department,  in  collaboration  with  various  research  centers  across  the  country,  has undertaken several initiatives to enhance monitoring and early warning systems across the  country,  including  urban  climate  platforms.  These  efforts  have  significantly contributed to minimizing the loss of life and property during extreme weather events, including heat waves. These include:
-  Heat Action Plans (HAPs) in 23 States that are prone to heatwave conditions were  jointly  implemented  by  the  National  Disaster  Management  Authority (NDMA) in collaboration with the State Governments.
-  Issuing seasonal and monthly outlooks, followed by extended-range forecasts of  temperature  and  heatwave  conditions.  The  early  warning  and  forecast information are also disseminated through various social media platforms for timely public outreach.
-  District-wise heatwave vulnerability Atlas over India to help State Government authorities and disaster management agencies in planning.
-  The  hot  weather  hazard  analysis  map  of  India  incorporates  daily  data  on temperature, wind patterns, and humidity levels.
-  A  series  of  National  and  State-level  heatwave  preparedness  meetings  are conducted  much before  the  start  of  the  summer  season,  with  regular  review meetings from time to time during the season.

IMD has also brought out a web-based "Climate Hazard & Vulnerability Atlas of India" prepared for the thirteen most hazardous meteorological events, which cause extensive damage  and  economic,  human,  and  animal  losses.  The  same  can  be  accessed  at https://imdpune.gov.in/hazardatlas/abouthazard.html. This atlas will help State Government  authorities  and  disaster  management  agencies  identify  the  hotspots, including  vulnerable  urban  and  rural  areas,  and  plan  and  take  appropriate  action  to tackle  extreme  weather  events.  This  product  is helpful  in  building  Climate  changeresilient infrastructure.

IMD  has  been  using  all  the  latest  available  communication  systems  for  improving outreach.  Early  warning  dissemination  has  been  strengthened  through  official  IMD websites, API based direct to the users, Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), WhatsApp groups,  mobile  applications,  web  portals,  SMS  alerts,  and  closer  coordination  with disaster management authorities. Social Media Platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, X, and Instagram have been widely used by IMD. Also, IMD uses the following Apps:

-  MAUSAM App for weather forecasting and warnings
-  MEGHDOOT App for agro met services
-  DAMINI App (developed by IITM) for lightning warning
-  UMANG App (developed by Meity) for Weather forecasting and warnings

To ensure localised relevance and last-mile connectivity of weather updates in remote and  vulnerable  regions,  IMD,  in  collaboration  with  the  Ministry  of  Panchayati  Raj (MoPR), has recently launched Panchayat-level weather forecasts covering nearly all Gram Panchayats in India. These forecasts are accessible through digital platforms such as  e-Gramswaraj  (https://egramswaraj.gov.in),  Meri  Panchayat  app,  e-Manchitra  of MoPR, and Mausamgram of IMD, MoES (https://mausamgram.imd.gov.in). The main aims and objectives of Gram Panchayat Level Weather Forecasting (GPLWF) are to provide weather forecasts up to Gram Panchayat Levels, covering critical parameters such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and cloud conditions-essential data that farmers need  for informed  decision-making  regarding  sowing,  harvesting,  and irrigation. The platform is making weather forecast information accessible anytime and anywhere at the panchayat level across the country. This weather information reaches a larger number of people through Pashu Sakhis and Krishi Sakhis under the Ministries of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and Rural Development.

To further advance weather and climate services in India, IMD conducts multiple statelevel stakeholder consultation workshops with various state government departments. These engagements include users from agriculture, water resources, energy, disaster management, transport, aviation, media, health, urban planning, and local communities. The  discussions  help  identify  practical  gaps,  emerging  needs,  and  opportunities  to improve the usability, accessibility, and reach of weather and climate services across the country.

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