Lok Sabha Question No. 610 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2015-12-02
Subject: Forecast of Weather Phenomena
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: K.R.P. PRABAKARAN, ALOK SANJAR

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 02, 2015

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 610 FORECAST OF WEATHER PHENOMENA

## 610.  SHRI K.R.P. PRABAKARAN:

## SHRI ALOK SANJAR:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the details of centres set up for forecasting natural calamities such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclone, etc. and providing such information to fishermen, tourists and general public, location and State-wise;
- (b) whether  the  Government  proposes  to  expand  its  infrastructure  or  open  new centres in this regard;
- (c) if  so,  the  details thereof and the centres likely to be set up, location and Statewise;
- (d) the  details  of  technology  used  so  far  for  the  accuracy  of  climate  predictions, weather and natural hazards across the country; and
- (e) the  details  of  activities  carried  out  by  the  organisation,  Earth  System  Science Organization (ESSO) in this regard?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) The  details of centres set up for forecasting natural calamities such  as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclone, etc.  are given below.

Earthquake Monitoring Centre- Earth System Science Organization-National Center for  Seismology  (ESSO-NCS)  is  monitoring  earthquake  activity  in  and  around  the county  round  the  clock  through  its  national  seismological  network.  There  is  no accepted  proven  scientific  technique  worldwide  so  far  to  predict/forecast  the occurrence of earthquakes with reasonable degree of accuracy in space, time and magnitude.

Tsunami  Warning  Centre-The  Government  has  established  a  state-of-the-art Tsunami Warning Centre at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad. This centre has been made fully operational since September 2007 and is equipped to provide timely tsunami warnings for India and the  countries  in  the  Indian  Ocean  region  on  24  x7  basis.  The  Indian  Tsunami Warning  System  comprises  various  real  time  monitoring  networks,  seismic monitoring  network;  bottom  pressure  recorders;  tide  gauges  etc.,  to  monitor tsunami  waves.  These  real  time  observing  networks  are  backed  up  by  a hierarchical  database  of  pre-run  tsunami  travel  time  and  inundation  scenarios; robust  standard  operational  procedures  (SOPs)  and  communication  facilities  for generation  and  dissemination  of  different  categories  of  warnings.  The  three critical  steps  involved  in  generation  of  tsunami  warnings include  i)  detection  of earthquakes  and  estimation  of  earthquake  parameters;  ii)  estimation  of  travel time and run -up height of tsunami; iii) confirmation of tsunami by monitoring sea level.

Potential Fishing Zone (PFZ) Advisories- For the benefit of fisherman community, ESSOINCOIS  Hyderabad  has  set  up a  satellite-based  application  for  the fishermen community  of  the  country, called "Potential Fishing Zone  (PFZ) Advisories". The advisories is being generated and provided on using the satellite data and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools since 1999 useful for location of  fish  grounds/aggregation  .  In  addition,  the  Ocean  State  Forecast  (OSF)  (wave height  and  direction,  wind  speed  and  direction,  ocean  currents,  sea  surface temperature, depth of mixed layer and thermo cline, sea level at major and minor ports, etc. is also being provided to fisherman.

Monitoring, detection and forecasting of weather including severe weather events such  as  cyclones, heavy  rainfall, extreme  temperature  etc.  ESSO-India Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  is  responsible  for  monitoring,  detection  and forecasting of weather including severe weather events such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, extreme temperature etc. It provides forecast of these events at national, regional and state levels through its tree tier structure. In order to provide early warning  of  severe  weather  events,  ESSO-IMD  has  setup  a  network  of  state meteorological  centres  to  have  better  coordination  with  a  state  and  other agencies.

- (b) No Madam.
- (c) Does not arise.
- (d-e)  Operational  implementation  of  improved  forecast  suite  of  models  after  the commissioning of the High Performance Computing (HPC) systems have enhanced the  weather  forecasting  capacities  through  assimilating  all  available  global satellite  radiance  data  for  the  production  of  forecast  products  at  22km  grid globally and 9km/3km grid over India/regional/mega city domains.

During the XII Plan, under the National Monsoon  Mission  initiative, other institutions  of  ESSO,  the  Indian  Institute  of  Tropical  Meteorology  (ESSO-IITM), Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean  Information  Services  (ESSO-INCOIS), Hyderabad  and  National  Centre  for  Medium  Range  Weather  Forecasting  (ESSONCMRWF), NOIDA have embarked upon to build a state-of-the-art coupled oceanatmospheric  climate  model  for  a)  improved  prediction  of  monsoon  rainfall  on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and b) improved prediction  of  temperature,  rainfall  and  extreme  weather  events  on  short  to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of ESSO-IMD.

ESSO-IMD  has  operationalized  its  location  specific  nowcasting  weather  service across the country. This service activity currently covers 155 urban centres under which nowcast of severe weather (Thunderstorms; heavy rainfall from lows/depressions over the land) in 3-6h range is issued. The weather information (Maximum, Minimum temperatures, Rainfall and Sky condition, etc.) and forecast for  next  7  days  for  310  important  cities  and  towns  in  all  the  states  and  union territories of India issued by the ESSO-IMD and they are available on the National and  Regional  websites  of  ESSO-IMD.  ESSO-IMD,  in  coordination  with  State Governments,  is  generating  forecasts  for  major  pilgrimages  such  as  Amarnath Yatra,  Mansarovar  Yatra,  Chardham  Yatra,  Kumbhmela,etc.  and  also  various mountaineering expeditions launched by the Armed Forces for Mount Everest and several other Himalayan mountains. ESSO-IMD also provides Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)  up  to  72  h  at sub-basin  scale  through  Flood  Meteorological  Offices  (FMOs).  FMOs  provide meteorological support to the Central Water Commission (CWC) for issuing flood warnings in respect of the 43 rivers of India covering 137 sub-basins. CWC issues flood forecasts 6 h to 30 h in advance for 176 stations using QPF received from FMOs of ESSO-IMD and in-situ hydro-meteorological data. The  Gramin  Krishi  Mausam  Seva  (GKMS  )  of  ESSO-IMD  has  been  successful  in providing  the  crop  specific  advisories  to  the  farmers  at  the  district  level  twice weekly  through  different  print/visual/Radio/  IT  based  wider  dissemination  media including  short  message  service  (SMS)  and  Integrated  Voice  Response  System

(IVRS).

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