Lok Sabha Question No. 87 (STARRED), answered on 2016-03-02
Subject: Weather Forecast
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: A. ARUNMOZHITHEVAN, PARASURAMAN K.

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES STARRED QUESTION No. * 87

TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, March 02, 2016

## Weather Forecast

- *87:            SHRI A. ARUNMOZHITHEVAN: SHRI K. PARASURAMAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  as  per  a  study  the  improved  meteorological  advisory services has enabled the country to post higher farm output/income of farmers and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether  75%  of  farmers  still  lack  reliable  access  to  improved meteorological advisory and if so, the reasons therefor;
- (c) whether there is any proposal to start weather forecasting at the block-level and if so, the details thereof;
- (d) whether the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has set up a committee to change several terms used by the forecaster such as drought to replace with deficient year and large deficient year; and
- (e) if so, the details thereof and the number of States that have been partially or completely declared drought-affected?

ANSWER

MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) to (e):   A Statement is laid on the Table of the House.

STATEMENT LAID ON THE TABLE OF THE LOK SABHA IN REPLY (a) to (e) TO STARRED  QUESTION  NO.  *87  REGARDING  'WEATHER  FORECAST'  TO  BE

ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, MARCH 02, 2016

- (a) Yes Madam. The Government has been entrusting the task of carrying out a comprehensive third party  assessment of socio-economic benefits  of  its  services  to  the  reputed  National  Council  of  Applied Economic Research (NCEAR), Delhi.   As per the recent NCAER  report, farming community of the country is using the Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) service products of Earth System Science OrganizationIndia Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) for critical farm operations Viz.  i)  Management of sowing (Delayed onset  of rains); ii) Changing  crop  variety  (Delay  in  rainfall);  iii)  Spraying  Pesticides  for disease control (occurrence of rainfall); iv) Managing Irrigation (Heavy rainfall Forecast).

NCAER  carried  out  assessment  of  economic  benefit  to  farmers  of GKMS service in 2010 and 2015. During 2010; 2.0 million farmers were subscribed to SMS service, however during 2015; 11.50 million farmers were subscribed to SMS service.

According  to  a  survey,  the  agriculture  specific  forecasts  of  Earth IMD)  have  been  found  reliable  by  more  than  93  percent  of  Indian formers.    95%  of  the  farmers  say  that  forecasts  of  ESSO-IMD  have

System Science Organization-India Meteorological Department (ESSOimproved during last 2-4 years. Further:

-  Most of farmers felt that there had been an improvement in the timeliness of the weather forecasts.
-  Among various components of weather elements, rainfall component has the highest priority.

Concurrently, with the implementation of District Level AgroMeteorological Advisory services, India has seen improved agriculture performance in the rain fed farming (Covers 60% of arable land).

Incremental profit due to GKMS is assessed at 25% of the net income. Potential  Annual  Economic  profit  by  using  GKMS  by  24%  of  the community  cultivating  4-principle  crops  (wheat;  paddy;  sugarcane; cotton) in 2010 was assessed at      Rs. 38,463 Crores (when 2.0 million farmers  were  subscribed  to  SMS  service),  the  annual  profit  rose  to Rs.42,000 Crores in 2015 (11.5 million farmers have been subscribed to SMS service), Top11- Principal Crops was assessed as 56,310 Crores and top  28- Principal Crops  was assessed as Rs. 67,000 Crores  in 2015.

The  study  suggests  that  GKMS  has  the  potential  of  generating  net economic  benefit  up  to  Rs.3.3  lakh  crores  on  the  4-principal  crops alone when Agro-Meteorological advisory is fully utilized by 90.3 million dependent households.

- (b) No  Madam.  ESSO-IMD  in  association  with  AMFUs  is  disseminating agro-meteorological advisories to the farmers through different multichannel system like All India Radio (AIR) and Doordarshan, Private TV and  radio  channels,  On  all  India  basis,  television  and  visual  media communication  found  to  be  serving  as  the  major  source  of  weather based  crop  advisory  information.  Newspaper  and  Internet,  SMS  and IVRS  under  Public  Private  Partnership  mode  by  IMD,  Reuter  Market Light, Handygo, NOKIA-HCL, Mahindra Samriddhi, Reliance Foundation and  IFFCO  Kisan  Sanchar  Limited  (IKSL)  are  disseminating  agrometeorological advisories to the farming communities via SMS and IVR system. In addition, agro-meteorological advisories are also disseminated  through  Kisan  Portal  (http://farmer.gov.in)  launched  by the Ministry of Agriculture.

ESSO-IMD is taking continuous efforts to expand popularization of the service among the farming community. Farmers' Awareness Programmes  are  being  conducted  in  various  parts  of  the  country. Besides these, details of more number of farmers are collected through Kisan Portal launched by the Ministry of Agriculture. ESSO-IMD along with  the  experts  from  Agromet  Field  Units  (AMFUs)  located  at  State Agricultural  Universities,  institutes  of  Indian  Council  of  Agriculture Research (ICAR) and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) participate in Kisan Melas, Farmers' Day etc to create awareness about the service so  that  more  farmers  get  benefitted.  Because  of  these  continuous efforts, number of farmers getting the benefit is increasing significantly.

## Future strategies are:

-  Expansion  of  Agro-Meteorological  Advisory  service  units  to  cover all farmers.
-  Roping in all available agencies including NGOs at sub-district level by  organizing  Awareness  and  training  programs  at  Krishi  Vigyan Kendra.
-  Increase spatial and temporal resolutions of weather forecasts
-  Now-casting  (up  to  3  hours)  and  Extended  Range  Forecasts  (1520days)
- (c) Research  efforts  are  initiated  by  ESSO  -IMD  to  explore  possibility  of generating sub district scale (block level) Agro-meteorological forecast with acceptable level of verification skill in a pilot mode.
- (d)-(e)  Yes  Madam.  A  committee  was  set  up  to  review  the  present  terms and terminologies being used in operational weather forecasts and to recommend changes for implementation based on interpretation of latest data.

The modified terminologies have been implemented from 1st January 2016. The decision by the committee to discontinue with the usage of  the  term  'All  India  Drought  Year'  to  be  replaced  by  'All  India Deficient Rainfall Year' was mainly owing to the observational fact that  the  drought  situation  never  manifests  over  the  country  as  a whole. Monitoring  of  the  seasonal  (monthly  /  weekly  rainfall  scenario  with reference  to  respective  normal  (mean  value)  is  only  carried  out  by ESSO-IMD  to  regularly  assess  and  identify  zones  of  deficit  rainfall leading  to  drought  conditions,  the  declaration  of  which  remains  with the  mandate  of  Ministry  of  Agriculture  in  consultation  with  various state governments. Because of this the term 'All India Drought Year' is replaced by 'All India Deficient Rainfall Year'. During 2015, the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmer Welfare (Drought Management Division) in consultation with state government had declared 10 States partially or completely drought-affected. ( Andhra Pradesh; Karnataka; Madhya  Pradesh;  Maharashtra;  Odisha;  Telengana;  Uttar  Pradesh; Jharkhand; Rajasthan; Chhattisgarh).

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