Lok Sabha Question No. 1994 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2026-02-11
Subject: Accuracy of Weather Forecasts
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri Ramvir Singh Bidhuri

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1994

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 11 TH  FEBRUARY, 2026

## ACCURACY OF WEATHER FORECASTS

## †1994. SHRI RAMVIR SINGH BIDHURI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  any  major  improvements  have  been  achieved  in  the  accuracy  of  weather forecasts, dissemination of early warnings the delivery of climate services during the year 2025;
- (b) the details of the accuracy of weather forecasts for Delhi during the year 2025; and
- whether  the  Government  has  any  further  plans  to  strengthen  weather  and  climate
- (c) forecasting systems and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) Yes. There have been significant improvements achieved in the accuracy of weather forecasts,  the  dissemination  of early  warnings, and  the  delivery  of climate services during the year 2025. India Meteorological Department (IMD)'s monsoon forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon season was highly accurate. The first stage long range forecast, issued in April 2025, for the Southwest Monsoon (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole was 105% of Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5% of LPA and the update forecast issued in the end of May 2025 was 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 4% of LPA. The actual seasonal rainfall for the country as  a  whole  was  108%  of  LPA.    The  spatial  probability  forecasts  were  also  largely accurate across most regions of the country. Similarly, the monthly rainfall forecasts closely matched the observed values and remained within the forecast limits.

For the dissemination of early warnings and the delivery of climate services.  IMD uses various digital platforms. This includes Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), Application Programming Interface, Website, Mobile Apps, Social media, etc. For example, during the recent Cyclone 'MonTha', a total of 77.64 Cr. SMSs were sent to the people. All real-time data, forecasts, and warnings were also timely shared and disseminated to State Emergency Operation Centres.

- (b) Accuracy  of  forecasts  over  Delhi  for  the  weather  parameters  such  as  rainfall,  max temperature, minimum temperature, and occurrences of dense fog during the year 2025 is 93%, 84%, 68% and 75% respectively.
- (c) Government is continuously working to strengthen weather and climate forecasting systems in the country.  New techniques and technologies have been implemented from time  to  time  to  improve  weather  and  climate  forecasting  systems.  There  has  been significant progress in this direction with:
-  Strengthening  of  the  observing  system  with  installation  of  additional  AWS, ARG, and DWR, etc.
-  Improvement of the data integration and development of GIS-based DSS.
-  Improvement  of  NWP  models  and  climate  models,  as  well  as  a  real-time seamless monitoring, forecasting, and early warning system.
-  Shifting  from  conventional  weather  forecast  and  warning  to  sector-specific color-coded Impact-based forecast (IBF) and risk-based warning (RBW) up to district/sub-city levels with dynamical impact and risk matrix
-  Application of AI/ML
-  Customisation of bulletins and warnings
-  Substantial increase of computational power to integrate voluminous data and to run meso-scale, regional, and global models at a further higher resolution scale, with improvement  of  process  understanding and model  physics. Supercomputers (Arka and Arunika) are being used for this purpose.
-  Panchayat Mausam Seva.
-  A state-of-the-art dissemination system with the use of a mobile app, Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), WhatsApp groups, etc.

Recently, a new Central Sector Scheme, "Mission Mausam", has been launched by MoES with the goal of making Bharat a "Weather-ready and Climate-smart" nation, with IMD as a major player.

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