Lok Sabha Question No. 56 (STARRED), answered on 2025-12-03
Subject: Early Warning System for Natural Disaster
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri Arvind Ganpat Sawant

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## STARRED QUESTION NO. *56 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 3 RD  DECEMBER, 2025

## EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR NATURAL DISASTER

## *56.          SHRI ARVIND GANPAT SAWANT:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government has any institutional mechanism in place for forecasting major natural events such as cyclones, unseasonal rainfall, earthquakes, floods, etc., in the country and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) the steps taken by the Government to prevent loss of life and property or to minimize such losses;
- (c) whether  the  Government  has  developed  early  warning  systems  for  predicting  any disasters arising from such events and if so, the details thereof;
- (d) whether any steps have been taken by the Government to strengthen early warning systems in States that are regularly affected by cyclones and other natural disasters and if so, the details thereof; and
- (e) whether the Government has any data regarding the use of early warning systems and the prevention of losses caused by rainfall, earthquakes, floods, etc. during the last five years and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

(a) to (e):   A Statement is laid on the Table of the House.

## STATEMENT LAID ON THE TABLE OF THE LOK SABHA IN REPLY TO (a) to (e) OF STARRED QUESTION NO. *56 REGARDING "EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR NATURAL DISASTER" TO BE ANSWERED ON DECEMBER 3, 2025

- (a) Yes Sir. The Government has established an organized institutional mechanism for observing,  monitoring  and  forecasting  major  natural  events  such  as  cyclones, unseasonal rainfall, etc.. The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) serves as the nodal Ministry  responsible  for  coordinating  these  efforts.  Under  this  Ministry,  the  India Meteorological Department (IMD), in coordination with institutions such as the Indian Institute  of  Tropical  Meteorology  (IITM),  Pune,  the  National  Centre  for  Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida, and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, works round the clock to observe, monitor, detect and provide forecasting and warning services for major atmosphericoceanic  natural  events.  These  include  cyclones,  unseasonal  and  heavy  rainfall, thunderstorms, fog, etc.

Presently, there is no scientific technique available anywhere in the world to predict an earthquake precisely in terms of time, location and magnitude; hence, no proven system exists in the country to provide early warning of earthquakes. However, the National  Centre  for  Seismology  (NCS)  under  the  Ministry  is  monitoring  the earthquakes occurring in and around the country through its seismological network and provides information about the earthquake occurrence with an intensity map.

Central Water Commission (CWC) under the Ministry of Jal Shakti is mandated to issue short-range flood forecasts with a lead time of up to 24 hours to concerned State Governments at identified locations. Timely flood forecasts are being issued when a certain threshold limit is reached.

Geological Survey of India (GSI) is responsible for the operational landslide warning system.  For  Earthquake  Monitoring and Services,  National  Center  for Seismology (NCS) under MoES is the Nodal office.

- (b)-(c) A number of steps have been undertaken by the Government to prevent or minimise the loss of life and property from major natural events such as cyclones, unseasonal rainfall, earthquakes, etc.. For improving the detection and prediciton of these events at a more granular and temporal scale, there has been a quantum jump in the weather observational and modeling systems. To provide computational support for such highresolution  models and to enable them to run regularly in real-time, the computing facilities  (Arunika  and  Arka)  have  also  been  substantially  increased  to  integrate voluminous data and run mesoscale, regional and global models at higher resolutions.

Recently, a new Central Sector Scheme, "Mission Mausam", was launched by the MoES to make Bharat a "Weather-ready and climate-smart" nation. IMD consistently issues timely alerts and forecasts to the public and concerned stakeholders. Various steps  have  been  taken  to  ensure  effective  dissemination  of  warnings  to  vulnerable populations. The recently launched Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS) has been developed primarily to improve short- and medium-range weather predictions.

India  Meteorological Department  (IMD),  in  coordination with  other  centres in the MoES,  has  developed  an  end-to-end  GIS-based  Decision  Support  System  (DSS), which has been working as the front end of the early warning systems for the timely detection  and  monitoring  of  all-weather  hazards  across  the  country,  including  the States regularly affected by cyclones and other natural disasters. It is supported with specific severe weather modules to provide timely impact-based early warnings for extreme weather events like  cyclones,  heavy rainfall, etc.,  which  devastate  human lives,  livelihoods  and  infrastructure.  The  system  utilizes  historical  data,  including extreme events, as well as real-time surface and upper-air meteorological observations available for the Indian region and its neighbouring areas. It also includes RADAR observations, available every 10 minutes, and satellite products every 15 minutes. It also  uses numerical weather prediction products from a suite of models run in the MoES institutions.  These  include  hyperlocal,  regional  and  global  models.  Further, IMD plays a  crucial  role  in  safeguarding  lives  and  property  through  its  advanced observational  network  and  forecasting  systems,  enabling  timely  preparedness  and response  in  close  collaboration  with  the  National  Disaster  Management  Authority (NDMA). The entire system is integrated with modern telecommunication technologies to ensure the timely and effective dissemination of information.  This coordinated approach ensures that accurate and timely weather information reaches authorities and the public, enhancing disaster risk reduction efforts across the country.

Suitable colour code is used to highlight the impact of the severe weather expected and signal disaster management about the course of action to be taken regarding an impending  severe  weather  event.  IMDs'  Impact-Based  Forecasting  (IBF)  provides localized risk assessments for vulnerable populations in advance of extreme events, such as cyclones.

IMD has also brought out a web-based "Climate Hazard & Vulnerability Atlas of India" prepared for the thirteen most hazardous meteorological events, which cause extensive damage and economic, human and animal losses. The same can be accessed at  https://imdpune.gov.in/hazardatlas/abouthazard.html.  This  atlas  will  help  State Government authorities and disaster management agencies identify the hotspots and plan and take appropriate action to tackle extreme weather events. This product helps build climate change-resilient infrastructure.

A pilot  implementation of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) has been initiated in Himachal Pradesh to provide a few seconds of alert before strong shaking is felt, which can help in the automated shutdown of critical infrastructure.

The  Central  Water Commission issues  inflow  forecasts to identified  reservoirs  for proper  reservoir  regulation.  Presently,  flood  forecasts  are  issued  by  CWC  at  350 stations as per the Standard Operating Procedure. The network has been established in consultation with the State Government/Project authorities.

- (d) Yes  Sir.  IMD  uses  various  digital  platforms  like  common  alert  protocol  (CAP), Application Programming Interface (API), Website, Mobile Apps, social media etc. for timely sharing and dissemination of various data and warnings and bulletins across various user groups and directly to public. IMD has launched seven of its services (Current Weather, Nowcast, City Forecast, Rainfall Information, Tourism Forecast, Warnings,  and  Cyclone)  with  the  'UMANG'  Mobile  App  for  use  by  the  public. Moreover,  IMD  developed  a  mobile  App,  'MAUSAM'  for  weather  forecasting, 'Meghdoot' for Agromet advisory dissemination, and 'Damini' for lightning alerts. A total  of  9342 crore SMS have been sent since August 2021, and during the recent cyclone "MonTha", a total of 77.64 crore SMS were sent to people.

CWC  is  providing a Seven-day advisory flood forecast on its web  portal https://aff.indiawater.gov.in/ for the same 350 stations through rainfall-based mathematical modeling. CWC takes immense steps and adopts various dissemination mechanisms to get maximum reach to the flood warnings produced, so that mitigation measures can be adopted by State Governments, State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and the public.

The flood forecasts formulated by CWC are disseminated to all stakeholders through the Flood Forecasting Website (https://ffs.indiawater.gov.in/)/https://aff.indiawater.gov.in/. FloodWatch India 2.0 App/Email/Whatsapp/Facebook(CWCOfficial.FF)/X(Twitter-CWCOfficial\_FF), 'CWC Flood updates' (Youtube Channel), CAP Alert through NDMA Sachet portal. A total of  6274  CAP  alerts  were  issued  throughout  the  country  and  disseminated  to stakeholders during Monsoon 2025.

For earthquakes, although prediction is not possible, the seismic monitoring network operated by NCS provides real-time data and rapid earthquake reports that support emergency response and situational awareness.

- (e) Recent  improvement  in  the  various  components  of  the  early  warning  system  for various  extreme  weather  events  has  definitely  helped  in  reducing  the  loss  of  lives significantly. For example, around 7000 people had lost their lives in 1999 Odisha Super Cyclone, while it has been reduced to less than 100 over the entire region from impact of tropical cyclones during recent years.  Accurate forecast of 1 cyclone saves around 1100 crore rupees in terms of expenditure towards payment of ex-gratia to kins of dead, cost towards evacuation, and savings to various sectors, e.g., Power, Marine, Aviation,  Railways,  etc.  As  a  result  of  these  new  initiatives,  the  overall  skill  of forecasting  these  severe  weather  events  has  improved  by  30-40%  over  the  last  10 years, from 2014 to 2024, resulting in a significant reduction in lives lost over the years.

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