Lok Sabha Question No. 1823 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-07-27
Subject: Weather Forecasting
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: RAMDAS CHANDRABHANJI TADAS, RAMCHARAN BOHARA, LAKHAN LAL SAHU

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1823 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, July 27, 2016

## WEATHER FORECASTING

1823.   SHRI RAMDAS C. TADAS: SHRI RAM CHARAN BOHRA: SHRI LAKHAN LAL SAHU:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether monsoon prediction and weather forecast system in the country  is  not  accurate  and  if  so,  the  details  thereof  and  the reasons therefor;
- (b) the details of the initiatives taken to improve monsoon prediction and weather forecast during the last three years and the current year;
- (c) whether the Government is taking assistance of foreign countries for accurate weather forecast and if so, the details thereof;
- (d) the  details  of  monsoon  and  weather  forecast  centres  working  in the country and the benefits accrued to general public and farmers by these centres during the last three years and the current year;
- (e) the details of funds incurred on research and development of new technology during the last three years and current year so far; and
- (f) whether the Government proposes to set up more regional centres and Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) to improve monsoon prediction, weather forecast and other climatic phenomena and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) No Madam. There is no reason to carry such impression about the performance  of  the  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  that operates  a  dedicated  weather  and  climate  monitoring,  detection and warning services useful for various sectors of economy. The weather  forecasting  systems  in  the  country  are  comparable  to most of the countries in the world. Efforts are continuously made to enhance the level of efficiency of the forecasting systems.
- (b)-(c)  Improvement  of  weather  forecasting  services  is  a  continuous process. Government has initiated a comprehensive modernization programme for IMD covering upgradation of (i) observation systems  (ii) advanced  data assimilation tools (iii)  advanced communication and IT infrastructure (iv) high performance computing systems and (v) intensive/sophisticated training of IMD

personnel to facilitate the implementation of advanced global/regional/  meso-scale  prediction  models  for  improving  the accuracy of weather forecasts in all temporal and spatial scales and for quick dissemination of weather forecast assessments/warnings to the users.

Under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, the Indian Institute of  Tropical  Meteorology  (IITM),  Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for Ocean  Information  Services  (INCOIS),  Hyderabad  and  National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA have  embarked  upon  to  build  a  state-of-the-art  coupled  ocean atmospheric model for a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and  b)  improved  prediction  of  temperature,  rainfall  and  extreme weather  events  on  short  to  medium  range  time  scale  (up  to  15 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational  services  of  IMD.  Forecasts,  early  warning  of  severe weather  events  and  advisories  are  issued  by  IMD  at  national, regional  and  state  levels.  In  order  to  provide  early  warning  of severe weather events, IMD has setup a network of state meteorological centres to have better coordination with the state and district level agencies.

Through Indo-US collaboration, a 'Monsoon Desk' has been set up for  working  jointly  for  improving  seasonal  forecast  of  Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise. This effort has led  to  appreciable  improvements  in  the  efficiency  of  models  in making better forecasts.

- (d) The names of the Meteorological Office/Center responsible to issue monsoon and weather forecasts in various states are in Annexure-I.

The Gramin Krishi Mausam  Seva  (GKMS)  of IMD has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers through different print/visual/Radio/ IT based media including short message  service  (SMS)  and  Interactive  Voice  Response  Service (IVRS)  facilitating  for  appropriate  field  level  actions.  Weather forecast  based  agrometeorological  advisories  are  disseminated through  Kisan  portal  launched  by  the  Ministry  of  Agriculture  and also under public private partner. At present, the GKMS products are disseminated through SMS and IVRS to 19.1 million farmers in the country.

As per the recent National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER)  report,  farming  community  of  the  country  is  using  the GKMS service products of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for critical farm operations Viz. i) Management of sowing (Delayed onset  of  rains);  ii)  Changing  crop  variety  (Delay  in  rainfall);  iii) Spraying Pesticides for disease control (occurrence of rainfall); iv) Managing Irrigation (Heavy rainfall Forecast).

According  to  a  survey,  the  agriculture  specific  forecasts  of  IMD have  been  found  reliable  by  more  than  93  percent  of  Indian formers.  95%  of  the  farmers  say  that  forecasts  of  IMD  have improved during last 2-4 years. Further:  Most of farmers felt that there  had  been  an  improvement in the timeliness of the weather forecasts.    Among  various  components  of  weather  elements, rainfall component has the highest priority. Concurrently, with the implementation of District Level AgroMeteorological Advisory services, India has seen improved agriculture performance in the rain  fed  farming  (Covers  60%  of  arable  land).  Incremental  profit due to GKMS is assessed at 25% of the net income.

Potential  Annual  Economic  profit  by  using  GKMS  by  24%  of  the community cultivating 4-principle crops (wheat; paddy; sugarcane; cotton)  in  2010  was  assessed  at  Rs.  38,463  Crores  (when  2.0 million farmers were subscribed to SMS service), the annual profit rose to Rs.42,000 Crores in 2015 (11.5 million farmers have been subscribed to SMS service), Top11- Principal Crops was assessed as 56,310 Crores and top 28- Principal Crops was assessed as Rs. 67,000  Crores  in  2015.  The  study  suggests  that  GKMS  has  the potential  of  generating  net  economic  benefit  up  to  Rs.3.3  lakh crores  on  the  4-principal  crops  alone  when  Agro-Meteorological advisory is fully utilized by 90.3 million dependent households.

- (e) No  specific budget allocation  was  provided for  Research  & Development in IMD. However, the details of funds utilized for Plan Schemes  during  the  last  three  years  and  current  year  are  as follows:
- (f) Augmentation of the observing system networks for the upgradation of IMD is a continuing process that shall be taken up as per the emerging needs from time to time.

|   S.No. | Financial Year   |   Funds Utilised (Rs.in Crores) |
|---------|------------------|---------------------------------|
|       1 | 2013-14          |                          117.25 |
|       2 | 2014-15          |                          103.91 |
|       3 | 2015-16          |                          144.38 |
|       4 | 2016-17          |                           17.07 |

## Annexure-I

|   S.No. | States            | Meteorological Office/Centre responsible to issue monsoon and weather forecast.   |
|---------|-------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       1 | Andhra Pradesh    | Hyderabad                                                                         |
|       2 | Arunachal Pradesh | Itanagar                                                                          |
|       3 | Assam             | Guwahati                                                                          |
|       4 | Bihar             | Patna                                                                             |
|       5 | Chhattisgarh      | Raipur                                                                            |
|       6 | Goa               | Goa                                                                               |
|       7 | Gujarat           | Ahmadabad                                                                         |
|       8 | Haryana           | Chandigarh                                                                        |
|       9 | Himachal Pradesh  | Shimla                                                                            |
|      10 | Jammu & Kashmir   | Srinagar                                                                          |
|      11 | Jharkhand         | Ranchi                                                                            |
|      12 | Karnataka         | Bangalore                                                                         |
|      13 | Kerala            | Thiruvananthapuram                                                                |
|      14 | Madhya Pradesh    | Bhopal                                                                            |
|      15 | Maharashtra       | Mumbai                                                                            |
|      16 | Manipur           | Guwahati                                                                          |
|      17 | Meghalaya         | Guwahati                                                                          |
|      18 | Mizoram           | Guwahati                                                                          |
|      19 | Nagaland          | Guwahati                                                                          |
|      20 | Odisha            | Bhubaneshwar                                                                      |
|      21 | Punjab            | Chandigarh                                                                        |
|      22 | Rajasthan         | Jaipur                                                                            |
|      23 | Sikkim            | Gangtok                                                                           |
|      24 | Tamil Nadu        | Chennai                                                                           |
|      25 | Telangana         | Hyderabad                                                                         |
|      26 | Tripura           | Agartala                                                                          |
|      27 | Uttar Pradesh     | Lucknow                                                                           |
|      28 | Uttarakhand       | Dehradun                                                                          |
|      29 | West Bengal       | Kolkata                                                                           |