Lok Sabha Question No. 626 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2015-12-02
Subject: Weather Forecast
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: R.K. BHARATHI MOHAN, BAIJAYANT "JAY" PANDA, S. RAJENDRAN, ABHISHEK SINGH, RAVNEET SINGH, KRISHNAN NARAYANASAMY RAMACHANDRAN

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 626

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 02, 2015

## WEATHER FORECAST

## 626.   SHRI BHARATHI MOHAN R.K.:

SHRI BAIJAYANT JAY PANDA:

SHRI S. RAJENDRAN:

SHRI ABHISHEK SINGH:

SHRI RAVNEET SINGH:

SHRI K.N. RAMACHANDRAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  monsoon  prediction  and  weather  forecast  system  in  the  country  is  not accurate particularly in comparison to International standards and if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor;
- (b) the  details  of  the  initiatives  taken  to  improve  monsoon  prediction  and  weather forecast under the National Monsoon Mission along with the technologies used in this regard;
- (c) the details of research institutions engaged in research on monsoon and weather forecast;
- (d) the  details  of  funds  incurred  on  research  and  development  of  new  technology during the last three years and current year so far; and
- (e) whether  the  Government  proposes  to  set  up  more  regional  centres  to  improve monsoon prediction, weather forecast and other climatic phenomena and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) No Madam. There is no reason to carry such impression about the performance of the  Earth  System  Science  Organization  -India  Meteorological  Department  (ESSOIMD)  that  operates  a  dedicated  weather  and  climate  monitoring,  detection  and warning services useful for various sectors of economy. The weather forecasting systems in the country are comparable to most of the  advanced countries in the world  with  respect  to  rainfall  forecasting.  Efforts  are  continuously  made  to optimize  the  level  of  efficiency  of  the  forecasting  systems.During  the  past  few years, the ESSO-IMD has been continuously improving weather prediction services in  terms  of  accuracy,  lead  time  and  associated  impact.  Manifestation  of  such quantitative improvement may be seen with accurate prediction of Monsoon 2015 and Very Severe Cyclonic Storms 'Phailin', 'Hudhud' and the heavy rainfall events during  monsoon season of 2014 and 2015. The Deep depression 8-10 November, 2015 which crossed Tamilnadu coast near pudduchery were correctly predicted.

Verification report on the performance of long range forecast for 2015 SW monsoon Rainfall is given below:

| Region          | Period              | Forecast (% of LPA)   |   Actual Rainfall (% of LPA) |
|-----------------|---------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------|
| All India       | June to September   | 88 ± 4                |                           86 |
| Northwest India | June to September   | 85 ± 8                |                           83 |
| Central India   | June to September   | 90 ± 8                |                           84 |
| Northeast India | June to September   | 90 ± 8                |                           92 |
| South Peninsula | June to September   | 92 ± 8                |                           85 |
| All India       | July                | 92 ± 9                |                           84 |
| All India       | August              | 90 ± 9                |                           78 |
| All India       | August to September | 84 ± 8                |                           77 |

- (b) Improvement of weather forecasting services is a continuous process. As part of its  XI  five  year  plan,  Government  has  initiated  a  comprehensive  modernization programme for ESSO-IMD covering upgradation of observation systems advanced data  assimilation  tools  advanced  communication  and  IT  infrastructure  (high performance computing systems and intensive/sophisticated training of ESSO-IMD personnel to facilitate the implementation of advanced global/regional/ meso-scale prediction models for improving the accuracy of weather forecasts in all temporal and spatial scales and for quick dissemination of weather forecast assessments/warnings to the users.

Operational  implementation  of  improved  forecast  suite  of models  after the commissioning of the High Performance Computing (HPC) systems have enhanced the weather  forecasting  capacities  through  assimilating  all available global satellite  radiance  data  for  the  production  of  forecast  products  at  22Km  grid globally and 9Kms/3Kms grid over India/regional/mega city domains. The performance evaluation of the updated global/meso-scale forecast systems for the past 5-7 years have demonstrated enhanced  forecast skill by about  18% quantitatively as far as the track and landfall forecasts of the tropical cyclones are concerned.

ESSO-IMD  has  operationalized  its  location  specific  nowcasting  weather  service across the country. This service activity currently covers 150 urban centres under which nowcast of severe weather (Thunderstorms; heavy rainfall from lows/depressions over the land) in 3-6hrs. range is issued. Origin, development/movement  of  severe  weather  phenomena  are  regularly  monitored through  Doppler  Weather  Radars  (DWRs)  and  with  all  available  other  observing systems (Automatic Weather Station-AWSs; Automatic Rain Gauge  ARGs; Automatic  Weather  Observing  Systems  -  AWOS;  satellite  derived  wind  vectors, temperature, moisture fields etc.) During the XII Plan, under the National Monsoon Mission  initiative,  other  institutions  of  ESSO,  the  Indian  Institute  of  Tropical Meteorology  (ESSO-ITM),  Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean  Information Services  (ESSO-INCOIS),  Hyderabad  and  National  Centre  for  Medium  Range

Weather Forecasting (ESSO-NCMRWF), NOIDA have embarked upon to build a stateof the art coupled ocean atmospheric climate model for a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and b) improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short  to  medium  range  time  scale  (up  to  15  days)  so  that  forecast  skill  gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of ESSO-IMD.

- (c) The names of the research Institutions in the country engaged in forecast/research on monsoon is given below.
- (d) The  details  of  funds  incurred  to  improve  monsoon  prediction  to  all  time  scale during last three years are given below.
- (e) No Madam. In the recent few years, ESSO-IMD has established new meteorological centres at Shimla, Dehradun,  Goa,  Itanagar,Gangtok,  Agartala  for providing detailed weather information specifically to respective States.

|   Sl. No. | Institution                                                                               |
|-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|         1 | Earth System Science Organisation (ESSO) -India Meteorological Department(IMD), New Delhi |
|         2 | ESSO-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune                                       |
|         3 | ESSO-National centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NCMRWF) ,NOIDA                   |
|         4 | Indian Space Research Organisation-Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad                   |
|         5 | Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-FOURTH PARADIGM INSTITUTE, BENGALURU        |
|         6 | Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar                                               |
|         7 | Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur                                                 |
|         8 | Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhi Nagar                                              |
|         9 | Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay                                                    |
|        10 | Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi                                                 |
|        11 | Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore                                                    |
|        12 | Andhra University                                                                         |
|        13 | Cochin University                                                                         |
|        14 | University of Pune                                                                        |
|        15 | Centre for Disaster Mitigation, Jain University, Bangalore                                |
|        16 | Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune                                        |
|        17 | Skymet weather wise                                                                       |

|   S. No. | Year    |   Expenditure Incurred (Rupees in Crores) |
|----------|---------|-------------------------------------------|
|        1 | 2012-13 |                                     11.94 |
|        2 | 2013-14 |                                     11.65 |
|        3 | 2014-15 |                                     25.69 |

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