Lok Sabha Question No. 4041 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-08-10
Subject: Impact of Climate Change
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: KRISHNAN NARAYANASAMY RAMACHANDRAN

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 4041

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 10, 2016

## IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

## 4041.  SHRI K.N. RAMACHANDRAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  Government  has  undertaken  any  study  to  analyse  the impact of global warming and climate change on rainfall pattern in the country;
- (b)
- if so, the details thereof;
- (c) whether there has been a decline in average seasonal rainfall in the country over the last five decades; and
- (d)
- if so, the details and the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a-b) Yes  Madam.  Ministry  of  Environmental  and  Forests  (MoEF),  Govt  of India  had  undertaken  the  Indian  second  National  Communication  to UNFCCC during 2009-2011(NATCOM-II). The communication had been a  national  effort  which  involved  many  multi-disciplinary  scientific groups.  Ministry  of  Earth  Sciences  and  its  institutions  carry  out scientific studies on climate change and variability under Global and Regional Climate Change (GRCC) programme. Under GRCC programme of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Ministry has established a dedicated Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) under the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

Monsoon  rainfall  varies  on  different  spatial  and  temporal  scales. Extreme rainfall events that occur at some isolated places (viz. heavy rainfall  over  Mumbai  or  in  other  parts)  are  highly  localized  and  are largely  part  of  the  natural  variability  of  the  Indian  monsoon  system itself. Although, some recent studies suggest an increasing frequency and intensity of extremes in rainfall during the past 40-50 years, their attribution to global warming is yet to be established. Moreover, the report of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and our country's own assessment using regional climate models indicate that the extreme rainfall events are likely to be more frequent in India in future.

Although,  the  monsoon  rainfall  at  all  India  level  does  not  show  any trend, areas of increasing and decreasing trends at regional level are discerned. It is not clear if this increasing trend in the heavy rainfall events  is  attributable  to  global  warming.  Summary  of  the  observed long term changes so far include:

(i) Mean annual surface air temperatures show a significant warming of about 0.7 degree C/100 years during the last century. (ii) No significant long-term trends are reported in the frequencies of large-scale droughts or floods in the summer monsoon season.

(c-d)    The average seasonal rainfall over India has shown decline in the last four decades, especially after 1970, that is not found to be statistically  significant.  Further  over  the  core  monsoon  zone,  the contribution from increasing heavy rain events is offset by decreasing moderate events and hence on the long term the change in seasonal rainfall is not appreciable.

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