Lok Sabha Question No. 2984 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2015-12-16
Subject: Impact of Climate Change
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: VIJAY KUMAR S.R.

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 2984

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2015

## Impact of Climate Change

## 2984.  SHRI S. R. VIJAYKUMAR:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether Government has undertaken any study to analyse the impact of global warming and climate change on rainfall pattern in the country;
- (b)
- if so, the details thereof;
- (c) whether  there  has  been  decline  average  seasonal  rainfall  in  the  country  over  the  last  four decades; and
- (d) if so, the details and the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a-b)    Yes  Madam.  Ministry  of  Environmental  and  Forests  (MoEF),  Govt  of  India  had  undertaken  the Indian second National Communication to UNFCCC  during 2009-2011(NATCOM-II). The communication  had  been  a  national  effort  which  involved  many  multi-disciplinary  scientific groups. Ministry of  Earth Sciences and its institutions carry out scientific studies on climate change and variability under  Global  and  Regional  Climate  Change  (GRCC)  programme.  Under GRCC programme of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Earth System Science organisation (ESSO) has  established  a  dedicated  Centre  for  Climate  Change  Research  (CCCR)  under  the  Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

Monsoon rainfall varies on different spatial and temporal scales. Extreme rainfall events that occur  at  some  isolated  places  (viz.  heavy  rainfall  over  Mumbai  or  in  other  parts)  are  highly localized  and  are  largely  part  of  the  natural  variability  of  the  Indian  monsoon  system  itself. Although, some recent studies suggest an increasing frequency and intensity of extremes in rainfall during the past 40-50 years, their attribution to global warming is yet to be established. Moreover,  the  report  of  the  Inter-  governmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change  (IPCC)  and  our country's  own  assessment  using  regional  climate  models  indicate  that  the  extreme  rainfall events are likely to be more frequent in the later part of the 21st century in the world including India.

Although, the monsoon rainfall at all India level does not show any trend, areas of increasing and decreasing trends at regional level are discerned. It is not clear if this increasing trend in the heavy rainfall events is attributable to global warming. Summary of the observed long term changes so far include:

- (i) Mean annual surface air temperatures show a significant warming of about 0.7 degree C/100 years during the last century.
- (ii)  No  significant  long-term  trends  are  reported  in  the  frequencies  of  large-scale  droughts  or floods in the summer monsoon season.
- (c-d)   The average seasonal rainfall over India has shown decline in the last four decades, especially after 1970, that is not found to be statistically significant. Further over the core monsoon zone, the contribution from increasing heavy rain events is offset by decreasing moderate events and hence on the long term the change in seasonal rainfall is not appreciable.

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