Lok Sabha Question No. 549 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-07-23
Subject: Bharat Forecast System
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri V K Sreekandan

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 549 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 23 RD  JULY, 2025

## BHARAT FORECAST SYSTEM

## 549.  SHRI V K SREEKANDAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  it  is  a  fact  that  the  India  Meteorological  Department  adopted  the  Bharat  Forecast System which promises fine tuned and accurate rain forecasts down to the panchayat level and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether it is also true that the improvement will largely be visible in the short and medium term forecasts but not in the long-range forecasts which is usually given a month in advance and if so, the details thereof;
- (c) whether it is a fact that Bharat Forecast System has been tested since 2002 and has shown notable improvements in giving advance warning of heavy rainfall events; and
- (d) if so, the details of the new invention generated by the Bharat Forecast System as of now?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) Yes. India Meteorological  Department  officially adopted  the  Bharat  Forecast  System (BharatFS) on  26 th May 2025. This forecast system  runs at a  resolution  of  6  km, typically about the size of a cluster of panchayats/villages. The goal of BharatFS's development was to enhance the accuracy of extreme weather prediction and produce forecasts at the panchayat cluster level. The new model supersedes its predecessor in terms of model configuration and forecast  accuracy.  It  has  improved  representation  of  orography,  better  filtering,  and  better conservation properties.
- (b) The recently launched BharatFS has been developed primarily for improving the short- and medium-range weather prediction and not for long range forecasting.
- (c) The development of the BharatFS began about five years ago and was successfully tested in 2022 not  in  2002.  Since  then,  it  has  undergone  rigorous  evaluation.  The  results  have  been promising, with the system showing significant improvement in predicting the rainfall over central monsoon region and a 30% increase in accuracy for extreme rainfall compared to the previous operational model.
- (d) Directly increasing the model resolution using conventional methods in the earlier operational 12  km  GFS  T1534  model  would  have  led  to  significant  computational  and  theoretical challenges.  These  limitations  underscore  the  need  for  a  more  advanced  and  efficient forecasting system like BharatFS. Consequently, the BharatFS was designed using the newly implemented dynamical grid  known  as  TCo  (Triangular  Cubic  Octahedral).  This  TCo  grid enhances resolution specifically over the tropics, enabling the model to achieve a horizontal resolution  of  approximately  6  km  in  these  regions.  Due  to  the  enhanced  resolution,  the BharatFS is able to provide more accurate local weather forecasts. Rigorous analysis of the model  since  2022  has  shown  a  30%  improvement  in  the  accuracy  of  extreme  rainfall predictions.

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