Lok Sabha Question No. 263 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2024-11-27
Subject: Price Monitoring Mechanism
Ministry: CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
Asked by: Shri Jugal Kishore, Shri Ashish Dubey, Shri P P Chaudhary, Dr. Vinod Kumar Bind, Shri Pratap Chandra Sarangi, Shri Vishnu Dayal Ram, Shri Balabhadra Majhi, Smt. Aparajita Sarangi, Smt. Himadri Singh, Shri Chandra Prakash Joshi, Shri Vijay Kumar Dubey

## Government of India Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution

## Department of Consumer Affairs

## LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 263 TO BE ANSWERED ON 27.11.2024

## PRICE MONITORING MECHANISM

## 263. SHRI VISHNU DAYAL RAM:

SHRI P P CHAUDHARY:

SHRI JUGAL KISHORE:

SMT. HIMADRI SINGH:

SHRI VIJAY KUMAR DUBEY:

SMT. APARAJITA SARANGI:

SHRI CHANDRA PRAKASH JOSHI:

DR. VINOD KUMAR BIND:

SHRI ASHISH DUBEY:

SHRI PRATAP CHANDRA SARANGI:

SHRI BALABHADRA MAJHI:

## Will  the  Minister  of CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION miHkksDrk ekeys] [kk| vkSj lkoZtfud forj.k ea=h be pleased to state

- (a) whether the Government  has  developed  a  predictive price forecasting model  for essential commodities and if so, the details thereof including its features and the commodities covered;
- (b) whether the Government plans to integrate this model with existing price monitoring mechanisms and market intelligence systems and if so, the timeline and expected outcomes thereof;
- (c) the details of the specific measures proposed to be taken by the Government based on the model's predictions to control inflation and stabilize prices of essential commodities; and
- (d) whether any assessment has been made of its potential impact on market price stabilization and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## miHkksDrk ekeys] [kk| vkSj lkoZtfud forj.k jkT; ea=h (श्री बी.एल. वर्मा )

## THE MINISTER OF STATE CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION (SHRI B.L. VERMA)

(a)  to  (d)  :    Department  of  Consumer Affairs monitors the daily consumer retail and wholesale prices of selected  food  commodities  reported  by  555  price  reporting  centres  set  up  by  the  States/UTs  across  the country. The price scenario and trends of food commodities such as pulses are being analysed taking into account  factors  influencing  price  behavior  such  as  the  supply  situation,  price  seasonality,  estimate production, market intelligence inputs etc.

Price forecasting model to predict retail prices of pulses like Tur, Urad, Moong, Chana and Masur in major  consumption  centres  based  on  price  trends  in  benchmark  mandis  and  import  prices  is  one  of  the analytical tools adopted by the Department of Consumer Affairs. The price-prediction model utilizes time series data and is based on an additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects. Time-series data includes the prices of pulses at benchmark mandis and import prices for forecasting retail prices  at major consumption centres. The price forecasting model has been integrated with the price monitoring analytical dashboard of the Department.

The  daily  price  data  and  the  analytical  outputs  constitute  vital  inputs  for  taking  appropriate decisions  pertaining  to  release  of  stocks  from  the  buffer,  changes  in  trade  policy  instruments  like rationalisation  of  import  duty,  changes  in  import  quota,  restrictions  on  exports  of  the  commodity  etc.  to stabilize  the  prices.  The  inputs  are  being  used  to  decide  the  timing,  quantum  and  targeting  of  market interventions with the buffer stock of pulses and onion being maintained by the government. The retail sale of onion from the buffer are targeted at cities/centres where prevailing retail prices are above the all-India average. The retail sale of Bharat Dals are targeted towards major consumption centres where prices are above  the  discounted  prices  of  the  dals.  The  data  of  daily  prices  and  analytical  outputs  helped  in  better targeting  of  market  interventions  to  stabilize  price  volatility  and  make  these  essential  food  commodities available to consumers at affordable prices.

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