Lok Sabha Question No. 2953 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-12-17
Subject: Forecasting of Heavy Rains and Landslides
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri Shafi Parambil

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 2953 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 17 TH  DECEMBER, 2025

## FORECASTING OF HEAVY RAINS AND LANDSLIDES

## 2953.   SHRI SHAFI PARAMBIL:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the  efficiency  of  the  current  forecasting  models  used  by  the  India  Meteorological Department (IMD) in forecasting of heavy rains and landslides;
- (b) the reasons for the failure of the current forecasting models in identifying the chances of heavy rains and landslides;
- (c) whether the Government has invested in the research to invent new forecasting models; and
- (d) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a)-(b)  The current forecasting models used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are highly accurate.  In 2024,  the  skill score for  24-hour  (one-day)  advance  detection  of heavy rainfall over meteorological subdivisions stands at 85%. At present, the accuracy of IMD's heavy rainfall forecasts, measured as the percentage of correct warnings, is 85%,  73%,  67%,  63%  and  58%  for  lead  times  ranging  from  one  to  five  days, respectively.  Overall,  forecast  accuracy  for  heavy  rainfall  events  across  the  country improved by about 40% in 2023-2024 compared to 2014.

The Geological Survey of India (GSI), under the Ministry of Mines, has been mandated to  issue  regional  landslide  forecasts/early  warnings  based  on  rainfall  thresholds. Currently, GSI  issues operational/experimental daily regional landslide forecast bulletins to 21 districts in 08 (eight) States during the monsoon period. GSI's landslide forecast model is primarily based on rainfall thresholds derived from historical rainfall and landslide occurrence data, in conjunction with daily rainfall forecast data received from institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Regarding the efficiency of this current forecast model, the evaluation shows a hit rate of more than 80% across the forecasting  zones  of  operational  districts,  viz,  Darjeeling,  Kalimpong,  Nilgiris  and Rudraprayag.

Improving  the  accuracy  of  weather forecasts requires enhanced  state-of-the-art observational networks, skilled human resources to undertake research and development for the development of numerical weather prediction models, and robust infrastructure, such as high-performance computing systems to run these models at the required high resolution  to  predict  weather  patterns  caused  by  climate  change.  The  Ministry  is  in continuous endeavour of augmenting the observational and R&D infrastructure towards achieving better accuracy in weather forecasting.

- (c)-(d)  The major new initiative undertaken by the Government is the implementation of the Mission Mausam. A couple of Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs) have already been installed under the mission. Currently, 47 radars are in operation across India, with 87% of the country's total area under radar coverage. Under the Mission Mausam, the Bharat Forecast  System  (BharatFS),  an  advanced  weather  forecasting  model,  has  been developed  and  is  operational  at  a  high  spatial  resolution  of  6-km.  It  also  has  the capability to provide predictions of rainfall events up to 10 days, covering the short and medium-range  forecasts.  Due  to  its  higher  resolution  and  improved  dynamics,  it generates weather forecasts at the panchayat or cluster of panchayats level. Further, a major achievement is the introduction of the Mithuna Forecast System (Mithuna-FS). This  new-generation  global  coupled  model  integrates  the  atmosphere,  ocean,  land surface,  and  sea  ice  components  with  state-of-the-art  physics  and  an  upgraded  data assimilation framework. Currently, this forecasting system operates at 12-km resolution, marking a significant advancement  in India's medium-range  localized weather forecasting capability. The Mithuna-FS suite also includes -
-  A  4-km  high-resolution  regional  model  for  accurate  simulation  of  monsoon dynamics, cyclones, and mesoscale extreme events over the Indian subcontinent;
-  A  330-m  hyper-resolution  urban  model  for  fog,  visibility,  and  air-quality forecasting over the Delhi region.

IMD  consistently  issues  timely  alerts  and  forecasts  to  the  public  and  concerned stakeholders.  Various  steps  have  been  taken  to  ensure  effective  dissemination  of warnings to vulnerable populations. IMD's weather information, including alerts  and warnings to the public, is provided through various platforms:

-  Mass  Media:  Radio/TV,  Newspaper  network  (AM,  FM,  Community  Radio, Private TV), Prasar Bharati, and private broadcasters.
-  Weekly & Daily Weather Video.
-  Internet  (e-mail), FTP
-  Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
-  IMD Apps:  Mausam/Meghdoot/Damini/Rain Alarm/Umang.
-  Social Media: Facebook, X, Instagram, BLOG
- i. X: https://twitter.com/Indiametdept
- ii. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/India.Meteorological.Department/
- iii. Blog: https://imdweather1875.wordpress.com/
- iv. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mausam\_nwfc
- v. YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC\_qxTReoq07UVARm87CuyQw

IMD  has  launched  seven  of  its  services  (Current  Weather,  Nowcast,  City  Forecast, Rainfall Information, Tourism Forecast, Warnings, and Cyclone) with the 'UMANG' Mobile App for use by the public. Moreover, IMD developed a mobile App, 'MAUSAM' for weather forecasting, 'Meghdoot' for Agromet advisory dissemination, and 'Damini' for lightning alerts. The Common Alert Protocol (CAP), developed by the NDMA, is also being implemented to disseminate warnings by the IMD.

IMD currently is equipped with a Decision Support System (DSS) based real-time multihazard impact based early warning system (EWS), which integrates all types of realtime  and  historical  data,  numerical  weather  prediction  products,  etc.,  to  effectively monitor, detect and provide timely forecasts and impact-based warnings with suggested actions up to districts and city/station levels against all types of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall events, droughts etc. IMD has Meteorological Centres (MCs) in each State and also special centers like Cyclone Warning Centers available for each impacted  State,  which  provide  services  during  cyclones  and  heavy  rainfall  seasons round the clock, respectively. As a result of these new initiatives, the overall skill of forecasting these severe weather events has been improved by 30-40% over the last 10 years.

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