Lok Sabha Question No. 1384 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2024-12-04
Subject: Irregular Weather Patterns in Kerala
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Dr. Shashi Tharoor

- (a) Yes.
- (b) Due to climate change, the annual temperature is increasing globally, and the impact is reflected in irregular weather patterns such as floods and heatwaves in various parts of the  globe,  including  India.  The  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  regularly publishes the country's annual climate summary, including State-wise. In addition, IMD published  a  monograph  on  heatwaves  that  provides  comprehensive  information  on heatwaves over India (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/met2.php). Further, a summary of temperature and extreme rainfall over Kerala is given in Annexure-1.
- (c) Yes.
- (d) IMD maintains a nationwide record of extreme weather events to facilitate the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters.Every year, IMD prepares "Annual Climate Summary" for  the  Indian  region,  which  contains  information  regarding  various  extreme  weather events observed within the country. The reports are available at (https://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim\_Pred\_LRF\_New/Reports.html). In addition, IMD also  brings  out  a  publication  on  "Disastrous  weather  events"  every  year,  which  is available at https://imdpune.gov.in/library.php. Recently, IMD brought out the "Climate Hazard  &  Vulnerability  Atlas  of  India",  prepared  for  the  thirteen  most  hazardous meteorological events, which cause extensive damages to economic, human, and animal losses. The same can be accessed at https://imdpune.gov.in/hazardatlas/abouthazard.html. This atlas helps IMD as a reference to issue impact-based forecasts for various extreme weather events.

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1384 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 4 TH  DECEMBER, 2024

## IRREGULAR WEATHER PATTERNS IN KERALA

## 1384.   DR. SHASHI THAROOR:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government has commissioned a study to understand the causes of volatile and irregular weather patterns like flooding and heatwaves in the State of Kerala in recent years;
- (b) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (c) whether  the  Government  maintains  a  nationwide  record  of  extreme  weather  events  to facilitate the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters;
- (d) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (e) whether the Government has come up with a national strategy to deal with urban flooding and advised States regarding the same; and
- (f) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

The climate hazard and vulnerability atlas will help the State Government authorities and Disaster  Management  Agencies  plan  and  take  appropriate  action  to  tackle  extreme weather  events.  A  climate  data  portal  has  been  operational  since  April  2024  with  the availability  of  earlier  historical  extreme  temperatures  and  rainfall  over  a  station/city: https://dsp.imdpune.gov.in.

- (e)-(f)  Forecasting  urban  weather  is  increasingly  important  to  manage  disasters,  decisionmaking  in  the  public  sector,  and  urban  planning  purposes,  etc.  in  this  regard,  various steps have been taken:

(i) In coordination with its centers, the ministry has operationalized an integrated flood  warning  system  in  Mumbai  and  Chennai.  This  system  provides  early warnings  for  flood  situations  in  cities  by  considering  many  parameters  and forecasts for rain.

(ii) The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has come up with a national strategy to deal with urban floods. It includes:

-  Guidelines of Urban Flood Early Warning Systems by the National Disaster Management Authority
-  A project has been launched for the establishment of an urban flood warning system  for  7  cities:  Mumbai,  Chennai  and  Kolkata,  Bengaluru,  Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, and Pune.

## Summary of temperature and extreme rainfall over Kerala:

Temperature: The time series analysis of annual mean temperature over Kerala reveals a significant increasing trend of +1.1 °C/100 years based on the data of 1901-2023. It was more pronounced in  terms  of  maximum  temperature(+1.7  °C/100  years)  and  relatively less  pronounced  in  terms  of  minimum  temperature(+0.47  °C/100  years).Details  of observed changes in temperature are provided in the table below:

Rainfall: The district-wise trend in annual rainfall of Kerala for 1951-2022 indicates that over some adjoining southern districts of the State, viz. Idukki, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, and Kollam observed a significant increasing trend in rainfall, while the rest of the districts showed a significant decreasing trend.Details of heavy rainfall events occurred from 2019-2023:

| Trend Values in °C/100 years (1901-2023)   | Trend Values in °C/100 years (1901-2023)   | Trend Values in °C/100 years (1901-2023)   | Trend Values in °C/100 years (1901-2023)   |
|--------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|
| States                                     | Maximum Temperature                        | Minimum Temperature                        | Mean Temperature                           |
| Kerala                                     | +1.7                                       | +0.47                                      | +1.1                                       |

H - Heavy: 64.4 mm -114.4 mm, VH - Very Heavy: 115.6 mm- 204.4 mm, and EH Extremely Heavy: > 204.4 mm

| State   | Year   | June   | June   | June   | July   | July   | July   | August   | August   | August   | September   | September   | September   |
|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|----------|----------|----------|-------------|-------------|-------------|
| State   | Year   | H      | VH     | EH     | H      | VH     | EH     | H        | VH       | EH       | H           | VH          | EH          |
| Kerala  | 2019   | 40     | 6      | 0      | 123    | 22     | 4      | 184      | 71       | 29       | 57          | 2           | 0           |
| Kerala  | 2020   | 71     | 16     | 1      | 75     | 20     | 0      | 132      | 40       | 5        | 124         | 26          | 1           |
| Kerala  | 2021   | 51     | 5      | 0      | 107    | 9      | 0      | 49       | 4        | 0        | 35          | 4           | 0           |
| Kerala  | 2022   | 25     | 3      | 0      | 127    | 4      | 0      | 104      | 27       | 4        | 20          | 7           | 0           |
| Kerala  | 2023   | 25     | 6      | 0      | 151    | 42     | 2      | 8        | 1        | 0        | 81          | 10          | 0           |

The  average  number  of  heatwave  days  in  Kerala  during  2022-2024: No heatwave days were reported in 2022 and 2023.

|   Year | Month   | Kerala   |
|--------|---------|----------|
|   2024 | March   | Nil      |
|   2024 | April   | 6        |
|   2024 | May     | Nil      |
|   2024 | June    | Nil      |

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