Lok Sabha Question No. 4465 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-08-20
Subject: AI in Weather  Forecasting
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Ms. S Jothimani

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 4465 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 20 TH AUGUST, 2025

## AI IN WEATHER FORECASTING

## 4465.   MS. S JOTHIMANI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  Government  utilises  AI  technology  to  determine  changes  in  season  or weather conditions and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) the details of efforts taken to forecast the weather and rain to farmers and fishermen using new technology;
- (c) whether  there  is  any  upgradation  taking  place  in  technologies  relevant  to  AI  for weather forecasting; and
- (d) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) Yes.The  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  and  other  MoES  institutions  have been  using  AI-based  tools  for  experimental  weather  and  climate  forecasting.  These include the Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT) used for estimate cyclone intensity, AI/ML-based foundation, hybrid (AI+Dynamical) models for weather prediction,etc.

The following are the research works done in AI/ML related to weather forecasts.

-  Short-range global forecasting.
-  Downscaling of precipitation data.
-  Fire Location Forecasting.
-  Fog Forecasting.
-  Lightening/Thunderstorm Forecasts.
-  Deep  learning  for  improved  global  precipitation  in  a  numerical  weather prediction system.

In  addition  to  the  above  research  work,  the  MausamGPT  (Mausam  Generative  Pretrained  Transformer),  which  is  an  AI-based  chatbot  trained  explicitly  as  a  climate service advisor to farmers and stakeholders also being developed.

- (b) IMD has been using the latest  technologies to provide  early  warning  services  to  its stakeholders, like  farmers, fishermen,  etc.  Last  year,  IMD, in collaboration with the Ministry  of  Panchayati  Raj  (MoPR),  had  launched  Gram  Panchayat  Level  Weather Forecasting (GPLWF) covering nearly all Gram Panchayats across India using a stateof-the-art  multi-model  ensemble  forecast  based  on  a  number  of  numerical  weather prediction  models.  These  forecasts  are  accessible  on  digital  platforms  such  as  eGramswaraj  (https://egramswaraj.gov.in/),  the  Meri  panchayat  app,  e-Manchitra  of MoPR, and Mausamgram of IMD (https://mausamgram.imd.gov.in/). The main aims and  objectives  of  GPLWF  are  to  provide  weather  forecasts  up  to  Gram  Panchayat Levels, covering critical parameters such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and cloud  conditions-essential  data  that  farmers  need  for  informed  decision-making regarding  sowing,  harvesting,  and  irrigation.  The  platform  makes  weather  forecast information  accessible  anytime  and  anywhere  at  the  panchayat  level  across  the country. This weather information reaches a larger number of people through Pashu Sakhis and Krishi Sakhis under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and the Ministry of Rural Development, as well as other Self Help Groups (SHGs). The GPLWF  helps  farmers  to  have  access  to  localized  weather  information  available hourly for up to a 36-hour lead period, 3-hourly from 36 hours to the next five days, and every 6 hours from the next 5 days to 10 days.

On 27 May 2025, the Government launched the indigenously built Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS), a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model for generating  high-resolution  forecasts.  It  promises  finer  and  accurate  rain  forecasts down  to  the  panchayat/cluster  of  panchayats  level.  The  BharatFS  has  a  spatial resolution of 6km compared to the previous 12 km resolution of the global forecasting system (GFS). It also has a capability to provide predictions of rainfall upto 10 days, covering the short and medium range. Thus, it would help to provide a forecast at the panchayat/cluster of panchayats level for the public, farmers, disaster managers, and other stakeholders. The Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) coupled model is used for generating extended range weather forecasts (upto 4 weeks) at the meteorological sub-division level.  Based on observed and forecasted weather, Agromet  Field  Units  (AMFUs)  covering  127  agroclimatic  zones  located  at  various SAUs, IITs, institutes of ICAR, etc., prepare Agromet Advisories twice a week (every Tuesday and Friday) in English as well as in Regional languages for their respective districts  to  help  the  farming  community  make  appropriate  decisions  on  day-to-day farm operations.

Along with the AAS bulletins, daily weather forecast and nowcast information are also issued  by  Regional  Meteorological  Centers  (RMCs)  and  Meteorological  Centers (MCs)  of IMD.  Impact-based forecasts (IBFs) and appropriate advisories for agriculture are also being prepared by AMFUs based on the severe weather warnings for  different  districts  of  various  States  and  UTs  across  the  country  issued  by  the National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC), New Delhi, and RMCs and MCs of IMD.

Technological advancements have further enhanced accessibility, enabling farmers to receive location-specific  forecasts  and  advisories  through  mobile  apps  such  as 'Meghdoot',  'Mausam'  and  Social  media  platforms  like  WhatsApp,  Facebook,  etc. Additionally,  IMD  has  integrated  its  services  with  the  IT  platforms  of  18  State Governments,  allowing  farmers  to  access  information  in  both  English  and  regional languages.

- (c)-(d)  Yes.  MoES recently  augmented the High Power Computing System (HPCS) with a total computing capacity of ~22 PetaFLOPS, with about 10% of the total capacity of the  new  HPC  systems  having  Graphics  Processing  Unit(GPU)  (A100).  Apart  from this,  MoES has a separate GPU's (NVIDIA H100) dedicated for AI/ML research in weather forecasting. IMD is working on AI/ML-based data driven model along with NWP models for further improving the weather forecasting skills over Indian region and the sea area of North Indian Ocean including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in various spatio-temporal scales to make weather warnings more accurate, timely and  actionable,  helping  communities  to  better  prepare  for  and  respond  to  weather hazards. The details are given in Annexure-1.

## Annexure-1

-  Virtual  Centre  at  IITM,  Pune,  has  been  established  by  MoES  to  develop AI/ML/DL based application tools.
-  A  dedicated  functional  group  has  been  established  in  IMD  under  MoES  to strengthen the R&D activities in AI/ML.
-  IMD has established a specialized GPU and CPU-based infrastructure for AI computing.
-  IMD  has  signed  MoUs  with  various  Academic  Institutions  like  IITs,  IIITs, NITs,  ISRO,  DRDO,  Ministry  of  Electronics  and  Information  Technology (MeitY), etc, for collaborations and R&D activities, utilizing facets of various AI/ML applications to weather and climate.
-  The capacity-building in AI/ML domain with respect to weather and climate are being done by nominating scientists in training sessions and workshops.
-  IMD organizes a short-term refresher course on the Fundamentals of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning every year in May.

The usage of AI-based monitoring tools and forecasting models is as follows:

-  To Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity, satellite-based AI-enhanced Advanced Dvorak Technique (AiDT), as given by Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, is utilised by IMD apart from other products
-  IMD  also  uses  AI-based  model  guidance  from  the  European  Centre  for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) for tropical cyclone genesis, track, and intensity prediction.

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