Lok Sabha Question No. 4385 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-08-20
Subject: Weather Forecasting during Monsoon
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Dr. M K Vishnu Prasad

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 4385

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 20 TH AUGUST, 2025

## WEATHER FORECASTING DURING MONSOON

## 4385.   DR. M K VISHNU PRASAD:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the  details  of  measures  taken  by  the  Government  to  enhance  weather  forecasting  and warning systems particularly during monsoon;
- (b) the details of improving monsoon prediction models to be better prepared particularly in Tamil Nadu and Cuddalore district which is frequently affected by cyclone;
- (c) whether any steps have been taken by the Government to upgrade the weather forecasting mechanism through acquiring or developing high technologies for forecasting during the last three years and if so, the details thereof; and
- (d) whether it is a fact that there is a need to set up weather and climate forecast research institute  in  Cuddalore  due  to  the  fact  that  large  number  of  people  got  affected  in  this district and surrounding districts during past years and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a)-(b)  Since  the  implementation  of  the  Multi-Model  Ensemble  (MME)-based  forecasting strategy in 2021, the accuracy of monsoon predictions has shown marked improvement for2021-2024.  For  2021-2024,  the  average  absolute  error  of  such  forecasts  has  been 2.28% of the Long Period Average (LPA) compared to 7.5% in the preceding four years (2017-2020).

The advanced technology used for monsoon forecast includes the multi-model ensemble technique  utilizing  global  climate  forecast  systems,  including  the  Monsoon  Mission Climate  Forecast  System  of  MoES.  In  addition,  the  recently  launched  Bharat  Forecast System  (BharatFS)  has  been  providing  forecasts  at  a  more  granular  scale.  It  presently operates in real-time at a very high spatial resolution of 6 km compared to the previous 12  km  resolution  of  the  global  forecasting  system.  It  also  hasthe  capability  to  provide predictions of rainfall events upto 10 days, covering the short and medium range. Thus, it would help to provide monsoon rainfall forecast at the panchayat/cluster of panchayats level for the public, farmers, disaster managers and other stakeholders. All these state-ofart  weather and climate models supported by various local surface and upper air based meteorological observations, radar products available from DWRs Karaikal and Chennai and satellite products which are available at 10 minute to 3-hour time-scale have been in use for providing all rainfall and cyclone severe weather warnings to the State of Tamil Nadu  and  Cuddalore  district  which  is  time  to  time  affected  by  cyclones  and  heavy rainfall.

MoES  institutions  use  the  state-of-the-art  dissemination  system  to  share  weather  and climate  information  and  early  warnings  with  disaster  management  authorities  and  the general  public  through  various  platforms/channels  for  necessary  preparedness  and  to support  adaptation  measures  across  the  country,  including  coastal  States.  It  includes social media, Common Alert Protocol, Mobile Apps, WhatsApp and APIs. As a result, the  vulnerable  population  in  rural  and  coastal  areas  gets  evacuated  on  time  to  safe shelters, thereby reducing the human death toll to a bare minimum.

IMD  utilizes  a  seamless  forecasting  system  at  the  seasonal  to  nowcast  scale  and implements  well-defined  Standard  Operating  Procedures  (SOPs)  for  monitoring  & forecasting weather hazards. IMD, in coordination with other centres in the MoES, has developed  an  end-to-end  GIS-based  Decision  Support  System  (DSS),  which  has  been working  as  the  front  end  of  the  early  warning  systems  for  the  timely  detection  and monitoring  of  all-weather  hazards  across  the  country,  including  Tamil  Nadu.  It  is supported  with  specific  severe  weather  modules  to  provide  timely  impact-based  early warnings for extreme weather events like cyclones, heavy rainfall, etc.

- (c) The Union Cabinet approved a new mission, Mission Mausam, in 2024. Its main goal is to make Bharat a "Weather-ready and Climate-smart"nation. The Hon'ble Prime Minister launched  it  on  14th  January  2025.  Phase  1  of  Mission  Mausam  will  be  implemented during 2024-26. Key objectives include:
-  Developing cutting-edge weather surveillance technologies and systems
-  Implementing higher-resolution atmospheric observations with improved temporal and spatial sampling and coverage
-  Deploying  next-generation  radars,  wind  profilers  and  satellites  equipped  with advanced instrument payloads
-  Implementing advanced high-performance computing (HPC) systems
-  Enhancing  our  understanding  of  weather  and  climate  processes  and  improving prediction capabilities
-  Developing  advanced  Earth  system  models  and  data-driven  methods,  including the use of AI/ML
-  Creating technologies for effective weather management
-  Establishing a state-of-the-art Decision Support System (DSS) and dissemination system for last-mile connectivity
-  Strengthening capacity building and research collaborations
- (d) Climate Research Unit (CRU) at India Meteorological Department (IMD)-Pune and the local Regional Meteorological Centers (RMC)-Chennai, are catering to the weather and climate services of each district of Tamil Nadu, including Cuddalore, which is vulnerable to cyclones and heavy rainfall.

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