Lok Sabha Question No. 3221 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2023-08-09
Subject: Impact of El Nino
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Parvesh Sahib Singh, Dushyant Singh

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 3221

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 9 TH  AUGUST, 2023

## IMPACT OF EL NINO

## 3221.    SHRI PARVESH SAHIB SINGH VERMA: SHRI DUSHYANT SINGH:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government is preparing for an "El Nino" impacted monsoon in the current year, if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether the Government has carried out any assessment of the potential impact of  E1 Nino on India's agriculture, water resources and overall economy in the coming year;
- (c) if so, the details thereof stating the impact on the various States of the country particularly in the State of Rajasthan;
- (d) whether the Ministry has taken any measures to monitor and predict the intensity of El Nino events in order to improve preparations and response to its effects on the vulnerable regions of the country;
- (e) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor; and
- (f) whether  the  Government  has  also  prepared  any  contingency  plan  to  deal  with  a  situation arising out of a weak or irregular monsoon and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI KIREN RIJIJU)

- (a) India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  issues  forecast  for  Monsoon  Seasonal  rainfall  in different stages which include the details of El-Nino condition also. The first stage forecast for monsoon seasonal rainfall is issued in the middle of April with an update during end of May and forecast for the 2 nd half of Monsoon is issued towards the end of July .
- (b) Continuous forecast updates on rainfall and the status of El Nino are provided for the entire country. These forecasts are issued to support planning activities in various sectors including Agriculture, Water Resources etc.
- (c) During the El Nino event, Indian summer monsoon is weaker than normal and the intensity of the event also decides the amount of impact on the monsoon. Out of the fifteen El Nino years during the period 1951-2015, El Nino is associated with below normal to deficient rainfall during  the  monsoon  season  in  9  years,  the  remaining  6  years  experienced  normal  to excess rainfall. Also, there is strong inverse relationship between El Nino and rainfall during latter  half  of  the  monsoon  season  (particularly  with  September  rainfall).    However,  it  is important to note that El Niño is not the only factor that decides the performance of monsoon over India. Other relevant climate drivers like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Dipole, Eurasian land heating etc. are also important in  deciding  the  performance  of  the  southwest  monsoon  rainfall.  The  relative  impact  of  all these parameters altogether decides the state of the monsoon over India, including the State of Rajasthan.
- (d) Yes Sir.
- (e) Every  month,  Office  of  the  Climate  Research  and  Services  (CRS)  of  IMD,  issues  bulletin related to the status and the prediction of the El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

IMD is monitoring the El Nino conditions continuously and information regarding the latest state  of  El  Nino  and  its  forecast  are  being  updated  to  the  various  users  through  various platforms like IMD website, newspaper etc. on regular basis.

According to the latest forecast, currently, weak El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest climate models indicate that the El Niño conditions are likely to intensity further and continue upto early next year. At present neutral IOD conditions are  prevailing  over  the  Indian  Ocean  and  the  latest  climate  models  forecast  indicates  that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during remaining part of the monsoon season.

IMD  issues  forecast  for  Monsoon  Seasonal  rainfall  in  different  stages  which  include  the details of El-Nino condition also. Accordingly as per the latest update issued on 31 July 2023, rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half (August to September period) of the southwest monsoon season, 2023 is very likely to be normal (94 to 106% of Long Period Average (LPA)), most probably on the negative side of the normal.

- (f) As on 4 August 2023, entire country received 5 % above normal rainfall since 1 June 2023. These  forecasts  are  issued  to  support  planning  activities  in  various  sectors  including Agriculture, Water Resources etc.

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