Lok Sabha Question No. 999 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2023-07-26
Subject: GDP Growth
Ministry: STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION
Asked by: M.K. Vishnu Prasad, Su Thirunavukkarasar

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

## LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO.999

## TO BE ANSWERED ON 26.07.2023

## GDP GROWTH

999. DR. VISHNU PRASAD M.K.: SHRI THIRUNAVUKKARASAR SU.:

Will the Minister of STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION be pleased to State:

- (a) whether the Government has decided to change data calendar and also decided that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers will only be released  after  the  Budget  2023,  if  so,  the  details  thereof  and  the reasons therefor;
- (b) whether India's GDP has fallen from 7.2% in the financial year 20222023 as compared to 9.1% in the previous fiscal growth rate despite India becomes the fifth largest economy in the world;
- (c) if so, the details thereof along with the rate of GDP during the last three years, year-wise;
- (d)  whether  any  steps  are  being  taken  by  the  Government  to  further improve the GDP growth rate in the coming years;
- (e) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor; and
- (f)  whether  output  of  the  manufacturing  sector  is  estimated  to decelerate  to  1.6  per  cent  as  against  a  growth  of  9.9  per  cent  in

Financial  Year  2022,  if  so,  the  details  thereof  and  the  reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) OF THE MINISTRY OF STATISTICS  AND  PROGRAMME  IMPLEMENTATION,  MINISTER  OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) OF THE MINISTRY OF PLANNING AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF CORPORATE AFFAIRS [RAO INDERJIT SINGH]

(a): Yes sir. First Advance Estimate (FAE) of National Accounts for the current  year  is  released  by  Ministry  of  Statistics  and  Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on 7th January, if it is a working day, else on previous working day, using the provisional estimate (PE) of previous financial  year  (FY)  as  benchmark.  However,  First  Revised  Estimate (FRE)  of  the  previous  financial  year  used  to  be  released  on  last working  day  of  January,  that  is  one  day  before  the  presentation  of Union Budget. That was creating confusion among users as they were recomputing  growth  of  current  year  using  FRE  released  one  day before, instead of growth rate published in Economic Survey. Therefore,  in  consultation  with  stakeholder  agencies,  FRE  has  been made coterminous with the release of Second Advance Estimate (SAE) from the current financial year onward, that is on the last working day of February.

(b)  and (c): GDP growth rate at constant (2011-12) prices during last three FYs are as follows:

| Year                |   2020-21(2 nd RE) |   2021-22(1 st RE) |   2022-23(PE) |
|---------------------|--------------------|--------------------|---------------|
| GDP growth rate (%) |               -5.8 |                9.1 |           7.2 |

RE-Revised Estimates, PE- Provisional Estimates

From  the  above  table,  it  is  evident  that  FY  2020-21  witnessed  a contraction  of  5.8  per  cent.  Because  of  low  base  in  2020-21,  the growth  rate  in  2021-22  was  registered  high  as  9.1  per  cent.  But  in 2022-23, the growth rate 7.2 per cent is on high base (9.1 percent of 2021-22).  Therefore,  the  said  growth  of  7.2  per  cent  in  2022-23  is healthy. (d)  and  (e):  Government  over  the  past  few  years  have  taken  various initiatives  that  have  contributed  to  the  high  growth  of  the  Indian economy. Policy support has included the introduction and application of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), Goods and Services Tax Reform, cut in the Corporate Tax Rate, the Make in India and Start-up India  strategies,  and  Production  Linked  Incentive  Schemes,  among others.  Government  has  also  focused  on  capex  led  growth  strategy and  substantially  increased  its  capital  investment  outlay  during  the last three years. The Union budget 2023-24 has taken further steps to sustain a high growth  of  India's  economy.  These  include  a  substantial  increase  in capital investment outlay for the third year in a row by 33 per cent to ₹10 lakh crore (3.3 per cent of GDP), the enhanced outlay for PM Awas Yojana, the launch of the Aspirational Blocks Programme covering 500 blocks  for  saturation  of  essential  government  services;  increase  in agriculture  credit  target  to  ₹20  lakh  crore  with  a  focus  on  animal husbandry, dairy and fisheries; and setting up of Agriculture Accelerator Fund to encourage agri start-ups by young entrepreneurs in rural areas, among others. Direct capital investment by the Centre is also  complemented  by  Grants-in-Aid  to  States  for  the  creation  of capital  assets.  The  'Effective  Capital  Expenditure'  of  the  Centre  was accordingly  budgeted  at  ₹13.7  lakh  crore  (4.5  per  cent  of  GDP)  for 2023-24.  To  increase  private  investment  in  infrastructure,  the  newly established  Infrastructure  Finance  Secretariat  will  provide  oversight. Further, to improve logistics performance, one hundred critical transport infrastructure projects for last and first mile connectivity for ports, coal, steel, fertilizer,  and  food  grains  sectors  have  been identified and will be prioritised for development.

(f):  Growth  rate  of  Gross  Value  Added  (GVA)  at  Constant  (2011-12) Prices in the manufacturing sector in the FY 2020-21, FY 2021-22 and FY  2022-23  are  2.9 per cent, 11.1 per  cent  and 1.3 per cent respectively.  From  this,  it  is  evident  that  the  Manufacturing  sector registered very high recovery during FY 2021-22 by observing 11.1 per cent growth. Because of very high base, growth of this sector at 1.3 per cent appears subdued. It is further noted that the growth rate of 1.6 per cent and 9.9 per cent for  the  FY  2022-23  and  FY  2021-22,  mentioned  in  the  question,  has now  been  revised  to  1.3  per  cent  and  11.1  per  cent  as  per  latest provisional estimate published on 31st May, 2023.

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