Lok Sabha Question No. 462 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-07-23
Subject: Early Warning Systems for Natural Disasters
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Dr. Thirumaavalavan Tholkappiyan, Thiru Dr. S Jagathratchakan

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 462

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 23 RD  JULY, 2025

## EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR NATURAL DISASTERS

462.    SHRI S JAGATHRATCHAKAN: DR. THIRUMAAVALAVAN THOLKAPPIYAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  Government  has  developed  early  warning  systems  for  forecasting  any devastation due to cyclones, rain, earthquake, floods etc., if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether  any  steps  have  been  taken  to  strengthen  early  warning  systems  in  States regularly affected by cyclones and other natural disasters and if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor; and
- (c) whether  the  Government  has  the  data  of  the  past  five  years  showing  the  use  of  early warning systems and thereby preventing incidences of damage due to rain, earthquake, floods etc. and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) Yes.  The  Ministry  of  Earth  Sciences  (MoES)  has  developed  advanced  early  warning systems  for  severe  weather  events  such  as  cyclones,  heavy  rainfall,  and  other  extreme conditions.  Early  warning  for  severe  weather  events  is  supported  by  a  state-of-the-art observation  network  that  includes  surface,  upper  air,  remote  sensing  observations, seamless forecasting systems based on high-resolution dynamical models, and GIS-based tools  for  generating  alerts  and  warnings.  The  entire  system  is  integrated  with  modern telecommunication  technologies  to  ensure  the  timely  and  effective  dissemination  of information.

Recently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), in coordination with other centres in the MoES, has developed an end-to-end GIS-based Decision Support System (DSS), which  has  been  working  as  the  front  end  of  the  early  warning  systems  for  the  timely detection and monitoring of all-weather hazards across the country, including the States regularly  affected  by  cyclones  and  other natural  disasters.  It  is  supported  with  specific severe  weather  modules  to  provide  timely  impact-based  early  warnings  for  extreme weather events like cyclones, heavy  rainfall, etc., which  devastate human  lives, livelihoods,  and  infrastructure.  The  system  utilizes  historical  data,  including  extreme events, as well as real-time surface and upper-air meteorological observations available for the Indian region and its neighbouring  areas. It  also includes  RADAR  observations, available   every   10 minutes,   and   satellite   products   every 15 minutes.  It   also  uses numerical  weather  prediction  products  from  a  suite  of  models  run  in  the  MoES institutions. These include hyperlocal, regional, and global models. Further, IMD plays a crucial  role  in  safeguarding  lives  and  property  through  its  advanced  observational network  and  forecasting  systems,  enabling  timely  preparedness  and  response  in  close collaboration with the National Disaster Management Authority  (NDMA). This coordinated  approach  ensures  that  accurate  and  timely  weather  information  reaches authorities and the public, enhancing disaster risk reduction efforts across the country.

Presently, there is no scientific technique available anywhere in the world to predict an earthquake precisely in terms of time, location, and magnitude; hence, no proven system exists  in  the  country  to  provide  early  warning  of  earthquakes.  However,  the  National Centre for Seismology (NCS) under the Ministry is monitoring the earthquakes occurring in  and  around  the country  through  its  seismological  network  and  provides  information about the earthquake occurrence with an intensity map. These details are made available to various disaster management authorities, other stakeholders, and the public as soon as possible  through  the  NCS-MoES  website,  app,  SMS,  FAX,  email,  WhatsApp,  X,  and Facebook.

The Central Water Commission (CWC) is mandated to issue short-range flood forecasts with a lead time of up to 24 hours to concerned State Governments at identified locations. Timely flood forecasts are being issued when a certain threshold limit is reached.

- (b) Yes.  IMD  has  adopted  new  techniques  and  technology  from  time  to  time  to  detect, monitor, and provide timely early  warnings for the entire country, including the States regularly  affected by all  types  of  extreme  weather  events like cyclones, heavy  rainfall, etc.,  which  have  devastating  impacts  on  human  lives,  livelihoods,  and  infrastructure. There has been significant progress in this direction with:
-  Strengthening of the observing system with installation of additional AWS, ARG, and DWR, etc.
-  Improvement of the data integration and development of GIS-based DSS.
-  Improvement of NWP models and climate models, as well as a real-time seamless monitoring, forecasting, and early warning system.
-  Shifting from conventional weather forecast and warning to sector-specific colorcoded  Impact-based forecast (IBF) and risk-based warning  (RBW)  up  to district/sub-city levels with dynamical impact and risk matrix.
-  Application of AI/ML.
-  Customisation of bulletins and warnings.
-  Substantial increase of computational power to integrate voluminous data and to run meso-scale, regional, and global models  at a  further higher resolution  scale with improvement of process understanding and model physics. Supercomputers (Arka and Arunika) are being used for this purpose.
-  Panchayat Mausam Seva.
-  A state-of-the-art  dissemination  system  with  the use  of  a  mobile  app,  Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), WhatsApp groups, etc.

Recently, a new Central Sector Scheme, "Mission Mausam", was launched by the MoES to make Bharat a "Weather-ready and climate-smart" nation.

IMD  consistently  issues  timely  alerts and  forecasts  to  the  public  and  concerned stakeholders. Various  steps  have  been  taken  to  ensure  effective  dissemination  of warnings  to  vulnerable  populations.  IMD's  weather  information,  including  alerts    and warnings to the public, is provided through various platforms:

-  Mass Media: Radio/TV, Newspaper network (AM, FM,  Community  Radio, Private TV), Prasar Bharati, and private broadcasters.
-  Weekly & Daily Weather Video.
-  Internet  (email), FTP
-  Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
-  IMD Apps:  Mausam/Meghdoot/DAMINI/RAIN ALARM
-  Social Media: Facebook, X, Instagram, BLOG
- i. X: https://twitter.com/Indiametdept
- ii. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/India.Meteorological.Department/
- iii. Blog: https://imdweather1875.wordpress.com/
- iv. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mausam\_nwfc
- v. YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC\_qxTReoq07UVARm87CuyQw

IMD has also brought out a web-based online "Climate Hazard & Vulnerability Atlas of India"  prepared  for  the  thirteen  most  hazardous  meteorological  events,  which  cause extensive damage and economic, human, and animal losses. The same can be accessed at https://imdpune.gov.in/hazardatlas/abouthazard.html. This atlas will help State Government authorities and disaster management agencies to identify the hotspots and plan  and  take  appropriate  action  to  tackle  extreme  weather  events.  This  product  helps build Climate Change resilient infrastructure.

IMD  has  launched  seven  of  its  services  (Current  Weather,  Nowcast,  City  Forecast, Rainfall  Information,  Tourism  Forecast,  Warnings,  and  Cyclone)  with  the  'UMANG' Mobile App for use by the public. Moreover, IMD developed a mobile App, 'MAUSAM' for weather forecasting, 'Meghdoot' for Agromet advisory dissemination, and 'Damini' for lightning  alerts. The Common Alert Protocol (CAP), developed by the NDMA, is also being implemented to disseminate warnings by the IMD.

The CWC has taken several steps by adopting various dissemination mechanisms to get maximum reach to the flood warnings, so that mitigation  measures can be adopted by State Governments, SDMA,  NDMA,  and  the  public. Further, with an aim of disseminating information related to the flood situation in the country and flood forecasts up to 7 days on a real-time basis to the public through mobile phones, version 2.0 of the 'FloodWatch India' mobile application has been developed by the CWC, which provides current  information  on  flood  conditions  across  the  country.  Further,  it  also  provides additional  information  regarding  the  storage  positions  of  150  major  reservoirs  in  the country,  which  helps  in  a  better  understanding  of  the  possible  flood  situation  in  their downstream areas. The 'FloodWatch India' app is available for download.

- (c) The  North  Indian  Ocean  region,  including  the  Bay  of  Bengal  and  Arabian  Sea, experiences  about  7%  of  global  cyclone  frequency.  However,  it  has  seen  some  of  the deadliest  cyclones.  The  1999  Odisha  Super  Cyclone  caused  10,000  deaths  in  Odisha. However, in the recent 10 years, there has been a paradigm shift in the monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones. It has resulted in a reduction of the death toll due to any cyclone to a single/double digit. It was zero casualties due to Cyclone Biparjoy, which hit the Gujarat coast in 2023, and Cyclone Dana, which hit the Odisha coast in 2024. It has also resulted in worldwide accolades for the India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences. DGM, IMD has been conferred with the UN Sasakawa award 2025 for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), which is the highest award in the field of DRR.

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