Lok Sabha Question No. 1840 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-07-30
Subject: Bharat Forecast System
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Smt. Kamaljeet Sehrawat

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1840 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 30 TH  JULY, 2025

## BHARAT FORECAST SYSTEM

## 1840.   SMT. KAMALJEET SEHRAWAT:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the key  features  and  objectives  of the  newly  launched  Bharat  Forecast  System  and the manner in which it will enhance Country's weather prediction capabilities;
- (b) the manner in which the Bharat Forecast System contribute to reducing crop losses and improving disaster preparedness, particularly in the context of climate change; and
- (c) the  significance  of  the  Bharat  Forecast  System  being  developed  indigenously  and  the manner  in  which  it  aligns  with  the  goals  of  Atmanirbhar  Bharat  and  Make  in  India initiatives?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) The Bharat Forecast System (BharatFS) is based on the newly implemented Triangular Cubic  Octahedral  (TCo)  dynamical  grid  that  enables  the  model  to  operate  at  6  km horizontal resolution, surpassing its predecessor (GFS T1534 ~ 12km) and typical global operational  models  having  horizontal  resolution  of  9-14 km.  The  recently  acquired supercomputing  facilities,  Arka  (IITM-Pune)  and  Arunika  (NCMRWF-Noida), enabled the  model  to  be  used  for  real-time  weather  prediction  by  reducing  the  runtime  from ~12 hours to just 3-6 hours. These key features have enhanced India's weather prediction capabilities by making India the only country running a global weather prediction model at such a high resolution for real-time weather prediction. The BharatFS was developed with the objective of generating forecasts at the cluster of panchayats level and improving the prediction of extremes. On  research mode, it has demonstrated significant improvement  in  the  rainfall  forecast  over  the  core  monsoon  region  and  30%  better accuracy for the extreme rainfall forecast compared to the previous operational model.
- (b) With the increase in horizontal resolution, the BharatFS is capable of generating distinct forecasts every 6 km. This allows the capturing of local weather features, thus enabling the forecasts to cater to a cluster of panchayats/villages. Localized forecasts help farmers with crop planning, irrigation, and harvesting. Additionally, water authorities can better manage reservoirs during monsoons, reducing flood risk and improving yield resilience. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme events, and BharatFS has  demonstrated  significant  improvement  in  the  skill  of  predicting  the  core  monsoon region  rainfall,  with  30%  improvement  in  the  accuracy  for  the  forecasting  of  extreme rainfall  events.  All  these  improvements  are  crucial  for  faster  and  targeted  disaster response, increasing the disaster preparedness of our country.
- (c) The BharatFS being developed indigenously is highly significant, not only for advancing India's scientific capabilities but also for furthering national strategic and economic goals. BharatFS represents India's own high-resolution weather prediction model, designed by Indian scientists considering the complexities of forecasting due to Indian geographythe Himalayas and Western Ghats.

Developed by a team of scientists from Indian institutions like IITM-Pune, with support from the NCMRWF-Noida and the IMD. The modeling system is powered by indigenous MoES  supercomputing  facilities  (Arka  and  Arunika).  These  achievements  are  aligned with  "Make  in  India"  -  Showcasing  India's  capability  to  build  world-class  systems locally. The development and launch of BharatFS enables India to export meteorological services  and  support  neighboring  countries,  reinforcing  regional  leadership  and  selfreliance. Empowering  India to own  and lead in climate and weather sciences demonstrates  "Atmanirbhar  Bharat".  All  these  align strongly with the visions of Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) and Make in India.

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