Lok Sabha Question No. 551 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2025-07-23
Subject: Early Warning Systems for Natural Disasters
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shri K Sudhakaran

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 551 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 23 RD  JULY, 2025

## EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR NATURAL DISASTERS

## 551.    SHRI K SUDHAKARAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the reasons for delays and inaccuracies in early warning systems for natural disasters like floods and cyclones which have caused significant loss of life and property in States like Gujarat, Odisha and Kerala;
- (b) the specific steps taken/being taken by India Meteorological Department to enhance the accuracy and timelines of disaster warnings, especially for coastal and rural communities;
- (c) whether the Government has assessed the gaps in the Bharat Forecast System launched in 2025 to address these issues and if so, the details thereof; and
- (d) the  measures  proposed  to  ensure  effective  dissemination  of  warnings  to  vulnerable populations including through collaboration with State Governments and local agencies?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) There  has  been  no  delay  in  disseminating  early  warning  information  by  the  India Meteorological Department (IMD) regarding  various natural  disasters,  including heavy rainfall events, floods, and cyclones, in States such as Gujarat, Odisha, and Kerala. The IMD  has  consistently  issued  timely  alerts  and  forecasts  to  the  public  and  concerned stakeholders.  The  Central  Water  Commission  (CWC)  is  mandated  to  issue short-range flood forecasts  with  a  lead  time  of  up  to  24  hours  to  concerned  State  Governments  at identified  locations.  Timely  flood  forecasts  are  being  issued  when  a  certain  threshold limit is reached.

IMD follows standard global best practice and operating procedures to deliver effective and  efficient  weather  and  climate  forecasting  services  to  the  nation.  The  skill  of  the operational forecasts issued by IMD for various extreme weather and climate events is comparable to other national meteorological services of developed countries in the world. Overall,  there  has  been  significant  improvement  in  the  forecasting  of  various  severe weather  events  like  cyclones  and  heavy  rainfall  over  the  country  during  recent  years (details about the IMD forecast accuracy are given in Annexure-1).

IMD uses a state-of-the-art dissemination system to share all severe weather information and early warning with Disaster Management Authorities as well as the general public through various platforms for necessary preparedness and to support mitigation measures. It includes Social media, Sachet-Apps via Common Alert Protocol (CAP), Mobile Apps, WhatsApp,  and  API.  As  a  result,  the  vulnerable  population  gets  evacuated  from  the damage-prone  areas  in  a  timely  manner  to  safe  shelters,  thereby  reducing  the  human death toll to a bare minimum. For this, IMD is issuing a seamless forecasting system at seasonal  to  nowcast  scale  and  has  implemented  a  well-defined  Standard  Operation Procedure  for  monitoring  &  forecasting  the  weather  hazards  and  issuing  impact-based warnings  in  consultation  with  NDMA,  SDMA,  and  other  various  user  agencies  like Aviation, power, Railways, etc.

- (b) IMD has adopted new techniques and technology from time to time to detect, monitor, and  provide  timely  early  warnings  (for  the  entire  country,  including  coastal  and  rural communities)  for  all types  of  extreme  weather  events  like  cyclones,  floods,  and heatwaves, which have devastating impacts on human lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure. There has been significant progress in this direction with:
-  Strengthening of the observing system with installation of additional AWS, ARG, and DWR, etc.
-  Improvement of the data integration and development of GIS-based DSS.
-  Improvement of NWP models and climate models, as well as a real-time seamless monitoring, forecasting, and early warning system.
-  Shifting from conventional weather forecast and warning to sector-specific colorcoded Impact-based forecast (IBF) and risk-based warning  (RBW) upto district/sub-city levels with dynamical impact and risk matrix
-  Application of AI/ML
-  Customisation of bulletins and warnings
-  Substantial increase of computational power to integrate voluminous data and to run meso-scale, regional, and global models at a further higher resolution scale with improvement of process understanding and model physics. Supercomputers (Arka and Arunika) are being used for this purpose.
-  Panchayat Mausam Seva.
-  A state-of-the-art  dissemination  system  with  the use  of a  mobile app,  Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), WhatsApp groups, etc.

Recently,  a  new  Central  Sector  Scheme,  "Mission  Mausam,"  was  launched  by  MoES with the goal of making Bharat a "Weather-ready and climate-smart" nation.

- (c) No. Bharat Forecast System (BhartFS) was launched very recently (on 26 th May 2025). The validation of the accuracy of forecasts from BhartFS for real-time situations is yet to be carried out, as it needs data of a longer period.
- (d) To ensure effective  dissemination  of  warnings  to  vulnerable  populations,  various  steps have been taken. IMD's weather information including alerts  and warning to the public are provided through various platforms:
-  Mass Media: Radio/TV,  Newspaper network (AM, FM, Community  Radio, Private TV), Prasar Bharati, and private broadcasters
-  Weekly & Daily Weather Video
-  Internet  (email), FTP
-  Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
-  IMD Apps:  Mausam/Meghdoot/DAMINI/RAIN ALARM
-  Social Media: Facebook, X, Instagram, BLOG
- i. X: https://twitter.com/Indiametdept
- ii. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/India.Meteorological.Department/
- iii. Blog: https://imdweather1875.wordpress.com/
- iv. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mausam\_nwfc
- v. YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC\_qxTReoq07UVARm87CuyQw

Last year (2024), a joint collaborative programme of the Central and State Governments was launched by the Ministry of Panchayati Raj (MoPR). Under this program,  the MoPR implemented  the  Gram  Panchayat-Level  Weather  Forecasting  (GPLWF)  for  nearly  all Gram Panchayats in India on 24 th October 2024. These forecasts are accessible on digital platforms such as e-Gramswaraj (https://egramswaraj.gov.in/), the Meri panchayat app, eManchitra of MoPR, and Mausamgram of the IMD (https://mausamgram.imd.gov.in/).The  main  aims  and  objectives  of  the  GPLWF  are  to provide  weather  forecasts  up  to  Gram  Panchayat  Levels,  covering  critical  parameters such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and cloud conditions-essential data that farmers need for informed decision-making regarding sowing, harvesting, and irrigation. The platform makes weather forecast information accessible anytime and anywhere at the panchayat level across the country. Attempts have been made to reach a larger number of people  for this  weather information  through  Pashu  Sakhis  and  Krishi  Sakhis  under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare and the Ministry of Rural Development.

IMD has also brought out a web-based online "Climate Hazard & Vulnerability Atlas of India"  prepared  for  the  thirteen  most  hazardous  meteorological  events,  which  cause extensive damage and economic, human, and animal losses. The same can be accessed at https://imdpune.gov.in/hazardatlas/abouthazard.html. This atlas will help State Government authorities and disaster management agencies identify the hotspots and plan and take appropriate action to tackle extreme weather events. This product is helpful in building Climate Change resilient infrastructure.

IMD  has  launched  seven  of  its  services  (Current  Weather,  Nowcast,  City  Forecast, Rainfall  Information,  Tourism  Forecast,  Warnings,  and  Cyclone)  with  the  'UMANG' Mobile App for use by the Public. Moreover, IMD developed a mobile App, 'MAUSAM' for weather forecasting, 'Meghdoot' for Agromet advisory dissemination, and 'Damini' for lightning  alerts. The Common Alert Protocol (CAP), developed by the NDMA, is also being implemented to disseminate warnings by the IMD.

The CWC has taken several steps by adopting various dissemination mechanisms to get maximum reach to the flood warnings, so  that mitigation  measures  can  be adopted  by State Governments, SDMA,  NDMA,  and  the  public. Further, with an aim of disseminating information related to the flood situation in the country and flood forecasts up to 7 days on a real-time basis to the public through mobile phones, version 2.0 of the 'Flood Watch India' mobile application has been developed by the CWC, which provides current  information  on  flood  conditions  across  the  country.  Further,  it  also  provides additional  information  regarding  the  storage  positions  of  150  major  reservoirs  in  the country,  which  helps  in  a  better  understanding  of  the  possible  flood  situation  in  their downstream areas. The 'Flood Watch India' app is available for download.

## Forecast and warning skill improvement of short-range to medium-range real-time:

## Cyclone Forecast Performance -5 years comparative (2020-24 vs 2015-19)

-  There  is  a  significant  improvement  in  Forecast  Accuracy.  During  2020-24,  IMD's Average Track forecast Error has improved 10-15% upto lead period 72 hours & 2530% beyond that than that of 2015-2019.
-  During 2020-24, IMD's Average Intensity Forecast Error has improved 33-35% upto lead period 72 hours, 10% for lead period 96 hours compared to 2015-2019.
-  During 2020-24, IMD's Average Landfall point Error has improved 64-72% upto lead period 96 hours & 90% for lead period 108 hrs beyond that than that of 2015-2019.

## Heavy rainfall forecast- skill 2014 to 2024 and (2016-2020) versus (2021-2024)

-  By 2024, the Probability of Detection (POD) for south west monsoon heavy rainfall warning is 80 for day 1, 70 for day 2, and 65 for day 3, as compared to 50 for day 1, 48 for day 2, and 37 for day 3 in 2014. There is an increase in the lead period of the forecast by 4 days from 2020 compared to 2016.

There  is  about  30,  40,  and  45%  improvement  in  skill  of  24,  48,  and  72  hrs  lead  period, respectively, in the recent 05 years (2020-24) as compared to the previous 5 years (201519).

********