Lok Sabha Question No. 286 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2024-11-27
Subject: The Predictive Price Forecasting Model for Essential Commodities
Ministry: CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION
Asked by: Shri Dharambir Singh

## Government of India Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution

## Department of Consumer Affairs

LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 286 TO BE ANSWERED ON 27.11.2024

## THE PREDICTIVE PRICE FORECASTING MODEL FOR ESSENTIAL COMMODITIES

## 286. SHRI DHARAMBIR SINGH:

## Will  the  Minister  of CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION miHkksDrk ekeys] [kk| vkSj lkoZtfud forj.k ea=h be pleased to state:

- (a) the  details  of  Ministry's  plan  to  utilize  the  predictive  price  forecasting  model  for  essential commodities  in  its  policy-making  processes,  particularly  to  control  inflation,  stabilize  prices  and strengthen the price monitoring mechanism;
- (b) whether the model includes strategies for real-time data collection and analysis specifically in states like Haryana and if so, the details thereof;
- (c) the  role  of  this  forecasting  model  in  addressing  price  volatility  in  essential  commodities  and  the details of recent cases where it has been effectively applied, especially in Haryana;
- (d) the  details  of  collaboration  with  the  State  Government  of  Haryana,  private  sector  or  research institutions to improve the model's accuracy and local impact; and
- (e) the anticipated benefits of this model for consumers in Haryana particularly low-income households in terms of reducing price spikes and ensuring access to affordable essential commodities?

## ANSWER

## miHkksDrk ekeys] [kk| vkSj lkoZtfud forj.k jkT; ea=h (श्री बी.एल. वर्मा )

## THE MINISTER OF STATE CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION (SHRI B.L.VERMA)

(a)  to  (e)  : Department of Consumer  Affairs, Ministry of Consumer  Affairs, Food and Public Distribution monitors the daily consumer retail and wholesale prices of selected food commodities reported by  555  price  reporting  centres  set  up  by  the  States/UTs  across  the  country,  including  4  price  reporting centres set up by the Government of Haryana. The daily report of prices and indicative price trends are duly analysed  for  taking  appropriate  decisions  on  release  of  stocks  from  the  buffer,  changes  in  trade  policy instruments  like  rationalisation  of  import  duty,  changes  in  import  quota,  restrictions  on  exports  of  the commodity etc.

The price scenario  and trends of  food commodities such as pulses are being  analysed taking into account  factors  influencing  price  behavior  such  as  the  supply  situation,  price  seasonality,  estimate production, market intelligence inputs etc. Price forecasting model to predict retail prices of pulses in major consumption centres based on price trends in benchmark mandis and import prices is one of the analytical tools adopted by the Department of Consumer Affairs. In addition, the Department has initiated mechanism to  obtain  inputs  on  market  outlook,  production  scenario,  weather  condition  etc.  through  regular  weekly interaction  with  participant  from  market  intelligence  agency,  Department  of  Agriculture  and  Farmers Welfare,  Indian  Metrological  Department,  National  Cooperative  Consumers'  Federation  (NCCF)  and National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation (NAFED).

The  daily  price  data  reported  by  price  reporting  centres  is  a  key  input  for  targeting  market interventions with buffer stock of pulses and onion maintained by the government. The retail sale of onion from the buffer are targeted at cities/centres such as Gurgaon in Haryana, where prevailing retail prices are above the all-India average. The retail sale of Bharat Dals are targeted towards major consumption centres where  prices  are  above  the  discounted  prices  of  the  dals.  The  data  of  daily  prices  has  helped  in  better targeting  of  market  interventions  to  stabilize  price  volatility  and  make  these  essential  food  commodities available to consumers at affordable prices.

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