Lok Sabha Question No. 2947 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2022-08-03
Subject: Extreme Heatwaves
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Magunta Sreenivasulu Reddy, S. Jagathrakshakan

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOKSABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 2947 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 3 RD AUGUST, 202

## EXTREME HEAT WAVES

## 2947. SHRI MAGUNTA SREENIVASULUREDDY: SHRI S. JAGATHRAKSHAKAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- the details of extreme heatwaves in the country in the last few years; (a)
- whether the Government has taken note that rising surface tempera I res i the Indian Ocean coupled with EI-Nino effect are responsible for heatwaves in India and if so, e details thereof; (b)
- whether the extreme heatwaves have any correlation with climate hang, if so, the details thereof; (c)
- whether the Ministry has conducted any study in this regard and if s ,the d tails thereof and if not, the reasons therefor; and (d)
- the details of the preventive steps taken/proposed to be taken by the GJovern ent keeping in view that the number of heatwave days in India has increased from 413 0 rer 1981-1990 to 600 over 2011-2020? (e)

## ANSWER

## THE M~~~~~~~~~~i~J~!~N~~~~~~~E) F R AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- The details of state-wise average number of Severe Heatwavelheatwave daIS in the country in the last 10 years is given Annexure. J (a)
- The study on heatwave have brought out that the warming of the tropi falIndian Ocean and more frequent EI Nino events in future may lead to more frequent and lonr lastii g heat waves over India. (b)
- Yes, As per the recent IPCC Sixth Assessment Repo by Working Group I viz. "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science. pasis" theGlobal mean concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases whic~ are th l drivers of climate change have increased in South Asia region which will result in "lore intense and frequent increase in the Heatwaves and humid heat stress during the 21"century] (c)
- The MoES climate change assessment report covers all aspects o~ regiO~al climate change including the climatic extremes across India (Krishnan et al., 2020). Bas d on the available climate records, the report documents that the surface air temperaturf over India has risen by about 0.7 °C during 1901-2018 which is accompanied with an increa~ in atrospheric moisture content. The sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean hav also if,creased by about 1 °C during 1951-2015. Clear signatures of human-induced changes in c imate Ihaveemerged over the Indian region on account of anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcin ,and Ehanges in land use and land cover which have contributed to an increase in the weat r extr mes including the (d)

extreme heatwaves. Future projections of regional climate, performe unde different climate change scenarios, too indicate robust changes in the mean, variability and e tremes of several key climatic parameters over the Indian subcontinent and adjoining ar as. T report notes that the frequency of summer (April-June) heat waves over India is projected be 3 to 4 times higher by the end of the twenty-first century under the Representative Fonce tration Pathways8.5 (Rep-8.S) scenario, as compared to the 1976-2005 baseline period (Kri hnan et al. 2020). However, it is to be noted that RCP-8.S is a high concentration pat~way extreme scenario) which would result in a Radiative Forcing of 8.5 W/m2 in 2100. THerefor the above result regarding heat waves is 'not a fact' but instead provides some inSight! abou likely heat waves occurrences if we follow the RCP-8.S scenario.

- Heat wave is one of the severe weather phenomena for which IMD issres ea ly warning. In the country, appreciable rise in maximum temperatures as well as heat waves are~foundto be more in the months of April, May & June. As an initiative IMD is issuirtg Sea onal Outlook for temperatures for the months of April, May & June in the last wee~ of arch for planning purpose. This outlook bring out the expected scenario of heat waves also durin the period. (e)

The seasonal outlook is followed by Extended Range Outlook issued J eve'lj Thursday for next two weeks. In addition to this, the forecast and the colour coded wa+ings for severe weather including heat wave warning are issued on daily basis for next five days with butlook for another two days.

IMD has started Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) on heat wave~ from April 2017 for the hot weather season under which a detailed daily report including realized ata of heat waves, weather systems leading to the occurrence of heat waves, diagnosis o~ the asis of Numerical Model outputs and forecast and warnings for five days is prepared. Th~sbull tin is disseminated to all concerned including health departments. From April 2018 onwards, IM!p started issuing an additional bulletin on heat wave in the morning (8 a.m.) valid for 241ho~rslfor supporting the planning of activities for the day and this bulletin is also disseminated ~ all concerned. All these bulletins are posted to IMD website also, on a special page created for I eatwt es.

As an adaptive measure, IMD in collaboration with local health departmen have started heat action plan in many parts of the country to forewarn about the heat wave and also advising action to be taken during such occasions. Heat action plan became ope ationa since 2013.

The Heat Action Plan is a comprehensive early warning system aljld pre aredness plan for extreme heat events. The Plan presents immediate as well as longerrterm rctions to increase preparedness, information-sharing, and response coordination to reduce the health impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable populations. NDMA and IMD are working wit 23 states prone to high temperatures leading to heat-wave conditions to develop heat acti In plan .

Recent advancement made in Heat wave forecast and warning follow:-

## ~ Heat Wave Monitoring and Forecasting Information on GIS

- a) Interactive Map in Web-GIS for actual maximum/minimum tf~rhnl"rl'lt.1 from normal temperature. (Current Temperature). & its Departure
- b) Interactive Map in Web-GIS for Heat Wave & severe Heat Wa & very Warm Nights. (Current Temperature). with Warm Nights

...

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- c) Interactive Map in Web-GIS for last 5 days actual ... t...... ~"p temperature & its Departure from normal temperatures, Heat Wave, severe Heat Warm Nights and very Warm Nights to assess the impact of the spell of Heat 5 days Heat Wave and Warm Night Situation).
- d) Normal Relative Humidity (RH) for March to June months are provided to assess the impact of RH during the Heat Wave Waves becomes more severe with an increase in the RH.
3. ~ Issue special heat wave & its impact bulletin (March to June) at impact of Minimum Temperature, humidity and wind. 1ST by including
4. ~ Heat Wave hazard analysis for entire country for four hot weather U~'-"U"'" MAY & JUNE) considering the Maximum Temperature, M",' 'u· '''~'''I' Wind and Duration is completed. This will lead to identification different meteorological parameters aggravating impact of Heat in future be utilized as threshold to generate Heat Wave impact locations. APRIL, Humidity, ..~,...~ scores based on

The link for Heat Wave information web-page is https:llinternal.imd.gov.in/pages/heatwave mausam.php

Recently IMD brought out web based online "Climate Hazard Vu nerability Atlas of India" prepared for the thirteen most hazardous meteorological everts, w ich cause extensive damages, economic, human, and animal losses. The sam can be accessed at https://imdpune.gov.inlhazardatlas/abouthazard.html. The climate Hazar~ and vulnerability atlas will help state government authorities and Disaster Managemrnt A ncies for planning and taking appropriate action to tackle various extreme weather ev nts. T is atlas serves as a reference to IMD to issue impact based forecast for various extre e weather events, including heatwave.

State-wise Average number of Sever Heat wavelHeat Wave days reported in

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## Annexure