Lok Sabha Question No. 3592 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2023-03-22
Subject: Weather Forecast for Summers
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: M. K. Raghavan

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 3592

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 22 ND  MARCH, 2023

## WEATHER FORECAST FOR SUMMERS

## 3592.  SHRI M.K. RAGHAVAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government has given any indications to State Governments regarding weather forecast for summers, if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether the Government projects that this summer is likely to be warmer than usual in India, if so, the details of steps taken to prevent heat strokes;
- (c) whether the Ministry has any data regarding the summer heat that can affect Kerala, if so, the details thereof;
- (d) whether the Government has observed warming up of water bodies in Kerala as a result of summer heat, if so, the details of warnings issued in this regard; and
- (e) the details of steps taken to prevent drought like situation in Kerala?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) Yes Sir. India Meteorological Department (IMD) started issuing  Seasonal  Outlook for Hot Weather Season from 2016 onwards. The outlook for March-April-May is issued towards the end of February/beginning of March and the updated outlook for April-May-June is issued towards the end of March. Accordingly IMD has  issued Seasonal  outlook  for  Hot  weather  Season  (March  to  May) 2023  and  Monthly Outlook for March 2023 for the Temperature and Rainfall on 28   February 2023.

The highlights pertaining to temperature scenario during March-May  2023 are given below:

-  During  the  upcoming  hot  weather  season  (March  to  May  (MAM)),  above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of northeast India, east and  central  India  and  some  parts  of  northwest  India.  Normal to  below  normal maximum temperatures are most likely over remaining parts of the country.
-  During the season (MAM), above normal minimum temperatures are very likely over  most  parts  of  the  country  except  south  peninsular  India  where  normal  to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
-  Monthly maximum temperatures for March 2023 are likely  to be above  normal over  most  parts  of  the  country  except  peninsular  India  where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
-  Above  normal  monthly  minimum  temperatures  are  most  likely  during March, 2023  over  most  parts  of  India  except  south  peninsular  India  where  normal  to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
-  Enhanced probability of occurrence of Heatwave during March to May season is likely over many regions of Central and adjoining Northwest India.

## (b) Yes  Sir.  For supporting mitigation  efforts  related to heatwave,  the following actions  are taken :

To  minimize  the  effect  of  heatwaves,  during  the  period  from  1  April  to  30  June, IMD  issues  colour  coded  impact  based  heatwave  warning  for  the  benefit  of  the Public and stake holders. The      criteria for colour code used for the purpose are given in the table below

| Green (No action)          | Normal Day                     | Maximum temperatures are near normal                                                                              |
|----------------------------|--------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Yellow Alert(Be updated)   | Heat Alert                     | Heat wave conditions atisolated pockets persists on 2 days                                                        |
| Orange Alert (Be prepared) | Severe HeatAlert for the day   | (i) Severe heat wave conditions persists for 2 days Through not severe, but heat wave persists for 4 days or more |
| Red Alert (Take Action)    | Extreme Heat Alert for the day | (i) Severe heat wave persists for morethan 2 days. Total number of heat/severe heat wave days exceeding 6 days.   |

IMD has finalized the impacts and suggested actions with respect to the intensity of heatwave  and  the  colour  code  used  for  related  warning,  in  collaboration with NDMA.  Details  of  the  same  are  given  in  the  table   below;

| Colour Code       | Alert       | Warning                              | Impact                                                  | Suggested Actions   |
|-------------------|-------------|--------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|
| Green (No action) | Norma l Day | Maximum temperatures are near normal | Comfortable temperature. No cautionary action required. | Nil                 |

| Yellow Alert (Be updated)   | Heat Alert                     | Heat wave conditions at isolated pockets persists on 2 days                                                            | Moderate temperature. Heat is tolerable for general public but moderate health concern for vulnerable people e.g. infants, elderly, peoplewith chronic diseases                                                                                    | (a) Avoid heat exposure. (b) Wear lightweight, light- coloured, loose, cotton clothes. (c) Cover your head: Use a cloth, hat or umbrella                                                                                     |
|-----------------------------|--------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Orange Alert (Be prepared)  | Severe Heat Alert for the day  | (i) Severe heat wave conditions persists for 2 days (ii) Through not severe, but heat wave persists for 4 days or more | High temperature. Increased likelihood of heat illness symptoms in people who are either exposed to sun for a prolonged period or doing heavy work. High health concern for vulnerable people e.g. infants, elderly, people with chronic diseases. | (b) Avoid heat exposure- keep cool. Avoid dehydration. (b) Drink sufficient water- even if not thirsty. (c) Use ORS, homemade drinks like lassi, torani (rice water),lemon water, buttermilk, etc. to keep yourself hydrated |
| Red Alert (Take Action)     | Extreme Heat Alert for the day | (i) Severe heat wave persists for more than 2 days. (ii) Total number of heat/severe heat wave days exceeding 6 days.  | Very high likelihood of developing heat illness and heat stroke in all ages.                                                                                                                                                                       | Extreme care needed for vulnerable people.                                                                                                                                                                                   |

Recent  developments  in  Heat  wave  Early  Warning  Services  by  IMD  are  as follows

-  Two special heat wave impact based bulletins are prepared  in addition to routine daily  bulletins.  The  first  one  is  issued  at  0800  hours  IST  with  24 hours subdivision wise impact based heat warning and the 2 nd  one is issued at 1600 hours IST with 5 days subdivision  wise impact based heat warning in graphics as well as text format.
-  Extended range forecast bulletin (include temperature forecast and warnings for next two weeks) is issued every  Thursday.
-  The following new Information in Web-GIS is added for better   interpretation of Heat Wave warnings by various users:-
- i. Interactive  Map  for  actual  Maximum  temperature  &  its  Departure  from normal temperature based on the situations of  the day.
- ii. Interactive  Map  for  Heat  Wave  and  Severe  Heat  Wave  along with  Warm Nights and very Warm Nights based on the situations of the day.
- iii. Normal Relative Humidity (RH) for March to June months based on  0830 and  1730  IST  are  provided  to  assess  the  impact  of  RH during  the  Heat Wave  days  since  the  impact  of  Heat  Wave  becomes  more  severe  with increase in the RH.

For Dissemination of Heat Wave Warning, the following modes are  used:

- i. Mass Media: Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Community  Radio, Private TV): Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters
- ii. Weekly & Daily Weather Video
- iii. Internet  (e-mail), ftp
- iv. Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
- v. IMD Apps:  Mausam/ Meghdoot/DAMIN/RAIN ALARM
- vi. Social  Media:  Facebook,  Twitter,  Instagram,  Y o u t u b e

IMD in collaboration with local  health  departments  have started  heat  action  plan  in  many parts of the country to forewarn about the heat waves and also advising action to be taken during  such  occasions.  Heat  action  plan  became  operational  since  2013.  The  Heat  Action Plan is a comprehensive early warning system and preparedness plan for extreme heat events. The  Plan  presents  immediate  as  well  as  longer-term  actions  to  increase  preparedness information-sharing, and response coordination to reduce the health impacts of extreme heat on  vulnerable  populations.  NDMA  and  IMD  are  working  with  23  states  prone  to  high temperature leading to heat-wave conditions for supporting heat action plans.

- (c) As per the seasonal (Mar-May) probabilistic forecast for the maximum temperature, normal  to  below  normal  maximum  temperatures  are  most  likely  over  South Peninsula including  Kerala.

As  per  the  probabilistic  forecast  for  the  spatial  distribution  of  heatwave  for  the season  (Mar-May)  there  is  minimum  probability  of  occurrance  of  heatwave  in Kerala.

- (d) No Sir.
- (e) IMD provides actual and forecast rainfall information in different spatial scale like districts,  States  &  meteorological  subdivisions  level  and  temporal  scale  like  daily, weekly & seasonally to the Ministry of Agriculture for drought monitoring for the whole  country  including  Kerala.  Moreover, National AAS  bulletin  based  on Extended  Range  Weather  Forecast  is  prepared  jointly  by  IMD  and  the  Central Research  Institute  for  Dryland  Agriculture  (CRIDA),  ICAR,  Hyderabad  on  every Friday  for  the  subsequent  two  weeks.  These  bulletins  provide  the  rainfall  and temperature  forecast  for  two  weeks  and  agromet  advisories  at  the  meteorological subdivision level.

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