Lok Sabha Question No. 2931 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2022-08-03
Subject: Accurate Predictions of Weather
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Ravneet Singh

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOKSABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 2931 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 3 RD AUGUST, 2022

## ACCURATE PREDICTIONS OF WEATHER

## 2931. SHRI RAVNEET SINGH BITTU:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- whether the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been repeated~y failing to give accurate predictions of the monsoon trends in the NCR of Delhi in the current ronsoon season; if so, the details thereof along with the reasons thereon; I (a) (b)
- whether the IMD has developed any comprehensive mechanism to correctly predict the various natural disasters like floods, earthquakes, cloudbursts in different partiof thelcountry and if so, the details thereof; (c)
- whether the Government is taking any measures to provide assis nee, ~oth financial and technical to IMD as well as conduct training programmes to help upgrade its equipments and technical knowhow to enable accurate predictions in the future; and (d)
- if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor? (e)

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHAR 'E) F R MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a)-(b) No Sir. Monsoon has set in over Delhi on 30th June 2022. It was predicted ~ days in advance. Regarding the forecast for monsoon rainfall over Delhi it is mentioned th4t the rainfall over Delhi had been well predicted as per the verification of forecast carriea out for the period from 1st to 15th July 2022. Details of the same are given in Annexurll I and Annexure-IT for reference.
- (c) IMD issues forecasts and warnings related to extreme weather events and s~are the same with Disaster Management Authorities as well as general public through var ous platforms for necessary preparedness and to support mitigation measures. j

IMD follows a seamless forecasting strategy. The long-range forecas s (for the whole season) issued are being followed with extended range forecast issued on eveI)j Thur~day with a validity period of four weeks. To follow up the extended range forecast, IMIJ>issu9s short to medium range forecast and warnings daily valid up to next five days with an oJtlooklor subsequent two days. The short to medium range forecast and warning at district and ,Itation level are issued by state level Meteorological Centres (MCs)lRegional Meteorological Centr s (RMCs) with a validity of next five days and are updated twice a day. The short to redium range forecast is followed by very short range forecast of severe weather up to three hours (rlowcast) for all the districts and 1089 cities and towns. These nowcasts are updated every t! ree hdurs.

The Central Water Commission (CWC) has the responsibility of Flood ami g. However, IMD supports flood warning services of CWC, by providing observed and D recas d rainfall. Heavy rainfall events lead to floods over different river basins of the country. Riv9r basin floods are dealt by the CWC. In order to meet specific requirements of flood forecrsting'IWhich is provided by CWC, !MD operates Flood Meteorological Offices (FMOs) at fourtieen locations viz., Agra, Ahmedabad, Asansol, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jalpaigu1, Lucknow, New Delhi, Patna, Srinagar, Bengaluru, Thiruvananthapuram and Chennai. APart frorP this, IMD also supports Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) by providing Quantitatire Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Damodar river basin areas for their flood forecasting activities. ClWC is working in close association with IMD and State Governments for timely flood fo~ecast henever the river water level rises above warning level. Flood Meteorological Offices ~FMO) operated by IMD provide meteorological support to the CWC for issuing flood warnings 'rdl in advance in respect of 153 river basins. CWC issues flood forecasts 6 hrs. to 30 hrs. in advance u ing QPF received from FMOs of IMD and in-situ hydrometeorological data. I

The cloud burst events are considered when the rainfall occurs at the ra~eof 1 em/ hour or more over a geographical area of approximately 20-30 square km. The occurrence 0 the cloud burst is not predictable worldwide.

National Centre for Seismology, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (M?ES) monitors the Earthquake events in the country. The occurrence of Earthquake is also not predictable worldwide. l

- (d)-(e) To upgrade the forecasting capabilities and enhancement in Weather & Climate services throughout the country various activities are underway in India Meteorol gical Department (lMD) under the umbrella Central Sector Scheme ACROSS. There arb 4 sub-schemes of IMD under ACROSS namely, Atmospheric Observation Network (AON), IUpgraration of Forecast System (UFS), Weather & Climate Services (WCS) and Commissionin r ofP3larimetric Doppler Weather Radars (PDWR) aimed at expansion of observational network a~d improvement in Weather & Climate services. The activities under ACROSS-IMD are c~ntinuirg in nature, being carried forward from previous plan periods. Training and manpower ~bvelo~ment activities are regularly carried out in order to provide seamless meteorological servic es to t e country.

## Rainfall forecast over Delhi during July and realised rainfall

| DATE       | FORECAST ISSUED (BEFORE 24 HRS)                                   | RAINFALL~ IE ALIfED)                                                                |
|------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 01.07.2022 | Moderate rain! thundershowers with heavy rain at isolated places. | Light to moderate Iainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall.             |
| 02.07.2022 | Light to moderate rain! thundershowers.                           | Light to mOdtrate ainfall at most places.                                           |
| 03.07.2022 | Light rain! thundershowers.                                       | Light to moderate rtinfall at a few places.                                         |
| 04.07.2022 | Light rain! thundershowers.                                       | Light to mOdtrate rainfall at most places. I                                        |
| 05.07.2022 | Light rain! thundershowers.                                       | Light rainfall atlmany places.                                                      |
| 06.07.2022 | Light rain! thundershowers.                                       | Light rainfall at isolated places.                                                  |
| 07.07.2022 | Light rain! thundershowers.                                       | Light rainfall at isolat9d places.                                                  |
| 08.07.2022 | Very light rain! drizzle at isolated places.                      | Light rainfall atlisolat1d places.                                                  |
| 09.07.2022 | Possibility of thundery development.                              | Light rainfall at isolated places.                                                  |
| 10.07.2022 | Light to moderate rain! thundershowers.                           | Very light rainfall at is olated places.                                            |
| 11.07.2022 | Light to moderate rain! thundershowers.                           | I Light rainfall atlisolated places.                                                |
| 12.07.2022 | Light rain! thundershowers.                                       | Light to moderate ainfall at most places with heavy ral·nfall at isolated places. I |
| 13.07.2022 | Moderate rain! thundershowers.                                    | Light to mOdtrate ainfall at many places.                                           |
| 14.07.2022 | Light to moderate rain! thundershowers at a few places.           | Light to mOdrate ainfall at many places.                                            |
| 15.07.2022 | Light to moderate rain! thundershowers at a few places.           | Light rainfall at most I: laces.                                                    |

## SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION (% of stations reporting)

| % Stations   | Category                             |
|--------------|--------------------------------------|
| 76-100       | Widespread (WS/ Mosl places)         |
| 51-75        | Fairly Widespread (F1S/ Many places) |
| 26-50        | Scattered (SCT/ A Few Places)        |
| 1-25         | Isolated (ISOL) I                    |

## I RAINFALL INTENSITY OF 24 HOURS ACCUMULATED RAINJfALL

| Terminology         | Rainfall Range in mm   | Terminology              | ~ainfa I Range in mm   |
|---------------------|------------------------|--------------------------|------------------------|
| Very Light Rainfall | Trace-2.4              | Heavy Rainfall           | ,4.5- 115.5            |
| Light rainfall      | 2.5 -15.5              | Very Heavy Rainfall      | 15.6 -I 204.4          |
| Moderate Rainfall   | 15.6 - 64.4            | Extremely Heavy Rainfall | r=204 .5               |

ise ram a mmm recor e over 1 eren salons m e I are given Datewi . f II C d d d·ffi t t f . D IhilNCR ) below

| Date       | Station               | Rainfall   |
|------------|-----------------------|------------|
| 01.07.2022 | Safdarjung            | 117.2      |
| 01.07.2022 | Palam                 | 31.8       |
| 01.07.2022 | Lodhi Road            | 108.4      |
| 01.07.2022 | Ridge                 | 65.4       |
| 01.07.2022 | Ayanagar              | 51.9       |
| 01.07.2022 | DU(AWS)               | 67.2       |
| 01.07.2022 | PUSA(AWS)             | 45.0       |
| 01.07.2022 | JAFARPUR(AWS)         | 11.0       |
| 01.07.2022 | NAJAFGARH(A WS)       | 17.0       |
| 01.07.2022 | PITAMPURA(AWS)        | 56.0       |
| 01.07.2022 | SPS MAYUR VIHAR(AWS)  | 4.0        |
|            | Safdarjung            | 1.9        |
| 02.07.2022 | Lodhi Road            | 4.8        |
| 02.07.2022 | Ridge                 | 7.6        |
| 02.07.2022 | Ayanagar              | 14.8       |
| 02.07.2022 | DU(AWS)               | 5.5        |
| 02.07.2022 | PUSA(AWS)             | 6.0        |
| 02.07.2022 | JAFARPUR(AWS)         | 6.0        |
| 02.07.2022 | NAJAFGARH(A WS)       | 5.5        |
| 02.07.2022 | PITAMPURA(AWS)        | 23.0       |
| 02.07.2022 | SPS MAYUR VIHAR(AWS)  | 18.0       |
|            | Ayanagar              | TRACE      |
| 03.07.2022 | JAFARPUR(AWS)         | 5.0        |
|            | NAJAFGARH(A WS)       | 105.0      |
|            | SPS MAYUR VIHAR (AWS) | 7.0        |
|            | Safdarjung            | 0.1        |
|            | Lodhi Road            | 0.4        |
|            | Ridge                 | 22.0       |
|            | Ayanagar              | TRACE      |
| 04.07.2022 | DU(AWS)               | 19.0       |
|            | PUSA(AWS)             | 0.5        |
|            | JAFARPUR(AWS)         | 4.0        |
|            | NAJAFGARH(A WS)       | 0.5        |
|            | PITAMPURA(AWS)        | 0.5        |

|            | Safdarjung            | 0.6   |
|------------|-----------------------|-------|
| 05.07.2022 | Lodhi Road            | TRACE |
| 05.07.2022 | Ridge                 | 0.2   |
| 05.07.2022 | Ayanagar              | 0.0   |
| 05.07.2022 | DU(AWS)               | 4.0   |
| 05.07.2022 | JAPARPUR(AWS)         | 3.5   |
| 05.07.2022 | NAJAFGARH(A WS)       | 1.0   |
| 05.07.2022 | SPORTS COMPLEX(AWS)   | 2.0   |
| 05.07.2022 | SPS MAYUR VlHAR (AWS) | 11.0  |
| 06.07.2022 | JAPARPUR(AWS)         | 3.0   |
| 06.07.2022 | SPS MAYUR VlHAR (AWS) | 8.0   |
|            | JAPARPUR(AWS)         | 3.0   |
| 07.07.2022 | SPS MAYUR VlHAR (AWS) | 4.0   |
| 08.07.2022 | JAPARPUR(AWS)         | 1.0   |
| 08.07.2022 | SPS MAYUR VIHAR (AWS) | 0.5   |
| 09.07.2022 | Safdarjung            | 8.8   |
| 09.07.2022 | Lodhi Road            | 11.0  |
| 09.07.2022 | Ridge                 | 1.2   |
| 10.07.2022 | Ridge                 | TRACE |
|            | Palam                 | TRACE |
| 11.07.2022 | Ayanagar              | TRACE |
| 11.07.2022 | JAPARPUR(AWS)         | 5.5   |
| 12.07.2022 | Safdarjung            | 1.8   |
|            | Palam                 | TRACE |
|            | Lodhi Road            | 2.4   |
|            | Ridge                 | 38.2  |
|            | Narela(AWS)           | 29.0  |
|            | JAPARPUR(AWS)         | 2.5   |
|            | NAJAFGARH(A WS)       | 6.0   |
|            | PITAMPURA(AWS)        | 81.0  |
|            | PUSA(AWS)             | 35.0  |
|            | DU(AWS)               | 34.5  |
| 13.07.2022 | Safdarjung            | 2.1   |
| 13.07.2022 | Palam                 | 3.1   |
| 13.07.2022 | Lodi Road             | 1.6   |
| 13.07.2022 | Ridge                 | 0.2   |
| 13.07.2022 | Ayanagar              | Trace |
| 13.07.2022 | Pusa                  | 1.0   |
| 13.07.2022 | Jafarpur              | 4.0   |
| 13.07.2022 | Najafgarh             | 2.0   |
| 13.07.2022 | SPS Mayur Vihar       | 13.0  |

## L EGENDS:

## NFALL INTENSITY OF 24 HOURS ACCUMULATED RAINFALL RAI

| Terminology         | Rainfall Range mm   | Terminology              | Ra+falll ange in mm   |
|---------------------|---------------------|--------------------------|-----------------------|
| Very Light Rainfall | Trace-2.4           | Heavy Rainfall           | 64.$ -11~ .5          |
| Light rainfall      | 2.5 -15.5           | Very Heavy Rainfall      | 115f6 - 204.4         |
| Moderate Rainfall   | 15.6 - 64.4         | Extremely Heavy Rainfall | >=~O4.5 I             |

*******

| 14.07.2022   | Safdarjung       | TRACE   |
|--------------|------------------|---------|
|              | Palam            | TRACE   |
|              | Lodi Road        | 0.1     |
|              | Ayanagar         | 0.8     |
|              | Narela           | 7.0     |
|              | Pusa             | 1.0     |
|              | Jafarpur         | 4.0     |
|              | Najafgarh        | 2.0     |
| 15.07.2022   | Safdarjung       | Trace   |
|              | Palam            | 2.0     |
|              | Lodi Road        | Trace   |
|              | Ridge            | Trace   |
|              | Ayanagar         | 1.5     |
|              | Narela           | 5.0     |
|              | Pusa             | 0.5     |
|              | Jafarpur         | 2.0     |
|              | Najafgarh        | 0.5     |
|              | SPS Mayur Vihar  | 2.0     |
|              | Delhi University | 0.5     |