Lok Sabha Question No. 3461 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2023-03-22
Subject: Accurate Weather Forecasts
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shankar Lalwani, Locket Chatterjee, Shyam Yadav Singh, Sunil Kumar Pintu, Navneet Ravi Rana, Rama Devi, Ajay Kumar Mandal, Bharatiben Dhirubhai Shyal, Ramesh Chander Kaushik

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 3461

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 22 ND  MARCH, 2023

## ACCURATE WEATHER FORECASTS

## †3461. SHRI SHANKAR LALWANI:

MS. LOCKET CHATTERJEE:

SHRI SHYAM SINGH YADAV:

SHRI SUNIL KUMAR PINTU:

SHRIMATI NAVNEET RAVI RANA:

SHRIMATI RAMA DEVI:

SHRI AJAY KUMAR MANDAL:

DR. BHARATIBEN DHIRUBHAI SHIYAL:

SHRI RAMESH CHANDER KAUSHIK:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  any  agreement  has  been  signed  by  the  Government  with  a  foreign  country  for accurate weather forecasting;
- (b) if  so,  the  salient  features  of  the  said  agreement  in  view  of  the  rapidly  changing  nature  of weather and natural calamities in the past year;
- (c) the  steps  being  taken/proposed  to  be  taken  by  the  Government  for  accurate  weather  and climate forecasting;
- (d) the details of the systems and softwares being developed to improve weather forecasts and weather alerts; and
- (e) the  details  and  types  of  technologies  on  which  the  country  is  dependent  on  foreign institutions for weather forecasting?

## ANSWER

THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a)-(b)  Yes Sir. The details of collaboration in various fields of Meteorological and Climatological Services and the MoU signed by Govt. of India with other countries and foreign government agencies are provided in Annexure-I.
- (c) India Meteorological Department (IMD) follows a seamless forecasting strategy. The longrange  forecasts  (for  the  whole  season)  issued  are  being  followed  with  extended  range forecast  issued  on  every  Thursday  with  a validity  period  of  four weeks.  To  follow  up  the extended  range  forecast,  IMD  issues  short  to  medium  range  forecast  and  warnings  at  36 meteorological  sub-divisions  levels  daily  four  times  valid  up  to  next  five  days  with  an outlook for subsequent two days. The short  to medium range forecast and warning at district

and station level are issued by state level Meteorological Centres (MCs)/Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs) with a validity of next five days and are updated twice a day. The short to medium range forecast is followed by very short range forecast of severe weather up to three hours (nowcast) for  all the districts  and  1089  cities  and  towns.  These nowcasts are updated every three hours.

While issuing the warning, suitable colour code is used to bring out the impact of the severe weather  expected  and  to  signal  the  disaster  management  authorities  about  the  course  of action to be taken with respect to impending disaster weather event. Green color corresponds to no warning hence no action is needed, yellow color corresponds to be watchful and get updated  information,  orange  color  to  be  alert  and  be  prepared  to  take  action  whereas  red color signals to take action.

IMD is issuing Impact Based Forecast (IBF) which give details of what the weather will do rather  than  what  the  weather  will  be.  It  contains  the  details  of  impacts  expected  from  the severe weather elements and guidelines to general public about do's and don'ts while getting exposed  to  severe  weather.  These  guidelines  are  finalised  in  collaboration  with  National Disaster  Management  Authority  (NDMA)  and  is  already  implemented  successfully  for cyclone, heat wave, thunderstorm and heavy rainfall.

- (d) The  details  of  systems/software  developed  to  provide  above  forecasts  and  warnings  are provided below:
1. Developed a dynamical prediction system for seamless prediction of weather, extreme events from seasonal scale to sort-range scale.
2. Thirty  seven  Doppler  Weather  Radars  are  operational  across  the  country  to  provide adequate warning in the event of approach of Cyclonic Storms, Monsoon Depressions, Thunderstorms  etc.  DWR  network  also  provides  vital  information  for  nowcasting purposes on mesoscale convective weather developments anywhere in the country.
3. Multi-Mission Meteorological Data Receiving & Processing System has been established for augmentation of satellite derived products.
4. 4940 raingauge stations have been installed for District-wise Rainfall Monitoring.
5. Location specific forecast for 7 days and nowcast for next 3 hours have been extended to 1164 cities and 1089 stations respectively covering 739 districts in the country.
6. Six Global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are run by MoES daily twice to provide forecast upto seven days (short to medium range) to provide the forecast and warning at station, Block, district and meteorological sub-divisions levels. Sector specific modelling is also carried out for forecasting with respect to agriculture, cyclone, riverine flood, flash flood and urban flood, thunderstorm/lightning etc.
7. The NWP Model based gridded rainfall data are provided to Central Water Commission for  their  flood  forecasting  model  for  all  153  river  catchments  and  Extended  Range model products for 10 river basins.
8. Operationalization of Flash Flood Guidance system, generation and issue of Flash Flood Guidance for all watersheds of the country.
9. Urban flood warning system has been developed for Mumbai and Chennai.
10. Common Alert Protocol (CAP) has been implemented as per WMO standard for severe weather warning. It is being utilized for Global Multi-Hazard Alert System of WMO.
11. The multi-model ensemble (MME) based Extended range prediction system and long range forecasting system have been developed and implemented in IMD.
12. A  very  high-resolution  (400  m)  operational  air  quality  prediction  system  has  been developed  to  forecast  air  pollution  events  in  Delhi  and  issue  timely  warnings  to  take necessary steps as per the newly designed Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) of the Government of India.
13. Heat  Action  Plans developed  in  collaboration  with  NDMA  and  state  governments  to reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity in the country.
14. A network of lightning detection sensors has been established over India for monitoring and now-casting of lightning occurrences.
15. India's  first  Earth  System  Model  (IITM-ESM)  contributed  to  global  and  regional climate  change assessments  of the  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change  Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) and participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6 (CMIP6).
16. The  National  Climate  Change  Assessment  report  documenting  the  regional  climate change projections, released to benefit students, researchers, and policymakers.

IMD  has  taken  various  initiatives  in  recent  years  for  improvement  in  dissemination  of weather  forecast  and  warning  services  based  on  latest  tools  and  technologies.  IMD  has launched seven of its services (Current Weather, Nowcast, City Forecast, Rainfall Information, Tourism Forecast, Warnings and Cyclone) with ' UMANG ' mobile App for use by public. Moreover, IMD had developed mobile App ' MAUSAM ' for weather forecasting, ' Meghdoot ' for Agromet advisory dissemination and ' Damin i' for lightning alert.

- (e) Though we are not dependent entirely on any foreign entity for weather forecasting, the bilateral and multilateral international agreements with various Government agencies in the field  of  Earth  system  science,  helps  the  Ministry  to  support  research  proposals,  joint observational  campaigns,  joint  development  work,  exchange  of  resource  personnel  and training abroad etc.

## Details of various collaborations/MoU with other countries

1. The MoU for  Technical  Cooperation  in  Earth  Observations  and  Earth  Sciences  between  the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA and MoES.
2. (i) Under this collaboration, systems have been set up for seasonal, extended-range and shortrange  dynamical  predictions  using  coupled  and  atmosphere  only  models  with  specific emphasis on monsoons and its variability. A modified version of the same modeling system is also used for climate change studies and this formed the basis for an Indian entry in the CMIP6 inter-comparison.
3. (ii) The  Hurricane  Weather  Forecast  (HWRF)  model  of  NOAA  has  been  customized  and implemented for real time tropical cyclone forecast (Track, intensity, wind & Rainfall). This model is used along with other models to provide cyclone forecasting and warnings. It is needless to mention successful early warning of recent cyclones like, Phalin, Hudhud, Fani, Amphan, Nisarg, Tauktae & Yaas by IMD. This enabled disaster managers to minimize the losses of life being limited to less than 100 due to any cyclone hitting the coastal region.
2. Cooperation with World Meteorological  Organisation (WMO)
5. (i)  South Asia Flash Flood Guidance System (SAsiaFFGS)

Collaboration  with  WMO  has  helped  in  technology  transfer  from  Hydrologic  Research Centre  (HRC),  USA  to  India  for  South  Asia  Flash  Flood  Guidance  System  which commenced from monsoon season of 2020.  It helped to issue impact based forecast and risk based warning during monsoonal flood situations like heavy rainfall.

- (ii)   In  coming  2-3  years  collaboration  with  WMO  will  help  in  capacity  building  of  the forecasters through training and augmentation of NWP guidance like probabilistic/ensemble forecast of cyclone and other severe weather events.
- (iii) WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Programme (SWFP)

This  collaboration  in  supporting  India  to  be  recognised  as  a  regional  leader  to  provide severe weather guidance to the member countries India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Bhutan,  Nepal,  Pakistan,  Sri-Lanka  and  Maldives).  In  return,  India  got  access  to  high resolution NWP model and location specific forecast products from European Centre for Medium  Range  Weather  Forecasts  (ECMWF),  National  Centre  for  Environmental Prediction  (NCEP),  UK  Met  Office  (UKMO),  Japan  Meteorological  Agency  (JMA), Korean  Meteorological  Agency  (KMA),  China  Meteorological  Administration  (CMA). Also  satellite  based  nowcast  (very  short  range  forecast  of  convective  activity  like thunderstorm rainfall) was made available for use in the region. It also helps in capacity building through training of forecasters from different countries since June 2016.

## (iv)   Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune

IMD  Pune  is WMO  recognized  Regional  Climate  Centre  (RCC)  for Regional Association  (RA)-II  region  of  WMO  (May-2017).    This  center  provides  Gridded Rainfall  data  sets  created  for  South  Asia  Region  and  the  same  is  using  for  SASCOF outlooks.  SASCOF  outlooks  issued  by  RCC  Pune  twice  in  a  year  along  with Climatological  model  forecast  which  is  updated  every  month  for  South  Asia  region. This centre also provides outlook for rainfall and temperature for next few months since monsoon 2010.

The  collaboration  with  WMO  helped  RCC  Pune  for  capacity  building  in  South  Asia region.  In  the  Year  2016,  8  trainees  trained  for  Pre-Climate  Outlook  Forum  Training (Bangladesh,  Bhutan,  India,  Maldives,  Myanmar  and  Sri  Lanka).  Similarly,  training were done during 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 & 2021.

## 3. Project Mode Co-Operation Agreement between IMD& FMI for Air quality

Collaborative  agreement  between  IMD  and  Finish  Meteorological  Institute  (FMI)  helps  in customizing the Air Quality Forecasting Model System for Integrated Modeling of Atmospheric Composition (SILAM) at 3.0 km resolution & City scale air quality forecasting model FMI-IMD ENFUSER  Environmental  information  Fusion  Service  (customized for  Delhi  NCR  and operationalized). This collaboration helps in providing realistic air quality forecast since 2020 and has improved further in air quality early warning system through customization of models like SILAM and ENFUSER.  This coordination will further enhance the air quality forecast with sufficient lead time in a smaller domain.

## 4. Developments under Monsoon Mission Project

The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, launched the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) in 2012 (now referred as Monsoon Mission, MM), with a vision to develop a state-of-the-art  dynamical  prediction  system  for  Indian  monsoon  rainfall  on  different  time scales. MoES bestowed the responsibility of execution and coordination of this mission to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune in collaboration with the National Centre for  Environmental  Prediction  (NCEP),  USA,  other MoES  organizations  (NCMRWF,  IMD & INCOIS) and various national and international academic institutions and organizations.

5. MoU on cooperation in Weather and Climate Sciences with the Met office, UK
2. (i)  Under  this  collaboration,  a  science  plan  consisting  of  3  work  packages  has  been  finalized with  a  focus  on  enhancing  our  capabilities  in  modelling  high  impact  weather  and  inform services  that  help  reduce  exposure  to  damaging  weather  and  climate  impacts  like  the flooding  during  the  South  Asian  summer  monsoon,  lightning  and  landslides;  tropical cyclones  bringing  heavy  rains,  storm  surges/flooding  and  strong  winds;  drought;  hail  and dust storms.
3. (ii) Consortium Agreement on Unified Model Earth System Modelling Software.

The agreement enables scientific and technical collaboration on a shared modelling system, across a range of modelling and science issues relevant for weather and climate prediction

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