Lok Sabha Question No. 2853 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2022-08-03
Subject: Heavy Rainfall
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Subrata Pathak, Ravindra Kushawaha, Ravi Kishan Shukla, Ram Kripal Yadav, Manoj Kumar Tiwari, Shrirang Appa Barne, Sambhajirao Mane Dhairyasheel, Sanjay Sadashivrao Mandlik, Prataprao  Jadhav, Bidyut Baran Mahato, Sudheer Gupta

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOKSABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 2853 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 3 RD AUGUST 2022

## HEAVY RAINFALL

2853. SHRI SUBRAT PATHAK:

SHRl RAVINDRA KUSHWAHA:

SHRl RAVI KISHAN:

SHRl RAM KRIPAL YADAV:

SHRl MANOJ TIWARI:

SHRl SHRIRANG APPA BARNE:

SHRl DHAIRYASHEEL SAMBHAJIRAO MANE:

SHRl SANJAY SADASmVRAO MANDLIK:

SHRl PRATAPRAO JADHAV:

SHRl BIDYUT BARAN MAHATO:

SHRl SUDHEERGUPTA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- whether the rainfall pattern is changing drastically in different parts oft'-e COUitry, wherein some parts like Assam, Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra are experiencing Iheavy rainfall and some parts particularly northern planes are facing draught like conditions eveq in th monsoon time; (a)
- if so, the details thereof and the actual rainfall recorded between June and till ate in each State; (b)
- whether the India Meteorological Department/the Government has condrcted ny survey through experts to ascertain the reasons for extreme diversity in. the rainfall dling t e monsoon season recently and if so, the outcome therefor; (c)
- whether unplanned development leading to obstruction of natur drai age is primarily responsible for this extreme monsoon and if so, the details thereof and the steps taken by the Government to rectify the same; and I (d)
- the details of other steps taken by the Government to prevent such extr~e mo soon conditions? (e)

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHAR, E) F MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOG AND EARTH SCIENCES J (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- There are changes in monsoon rainfall distribution as seen in district lise tre d in rainfall .IMD has carried out an analysis of observed monsoon rainfall variability and cha ges of 29 States & Union Territory at State and District levels based on the IMD's obserfation I data of recent 30 years (1989- 2018) during the Southwest monsoon season from June ~o September (HAS) and issued a report on 30 March 2020. The reports on observed rainfall v~riabilih: and its trend for each State and Union Territory are available in IMD website (htt s: Ilmausam [imd. ov.i!!L) under "PUBLICATIONS" as well as in IMD Pune website; (a)

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## The highlights of the report are given below;

- >-Five states viz., Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Meghalaya a d Nagrland have shown significant decreasing trends in southwest monsoon rainfall dur ng th recent 30 years period (1989-2018).
- >-The annual rainfall over these five states along with the states 0 . Arun chal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh also show significant decreasing trends.
- >-Other states do not show any significant changes in southwest monsoon ainfall during the same period. I
- >-Considering district-wise rainfall, there are many districts in t~e cou try, which show significant changes in southwest monsoon and annual rainfall dUling t e recent 30 years period (1989-2018). With regard to the frequency of heavy ainfal days, significant increasing trend is observed over Saurashtra & Kutch, Southea tern parts of Rajasthan, Northern parts of Tamil Nadu, Northern parts of Andhra Pradesh and hdjoining areas of Southwest Odisha, many parts of Chhattisgarh, Southwest Madhya Pradl sh, West Bengal, Manipur & Mizoram, Konkan & Goa and Uttarakhand. I
- Statewise rainfall statistics for the period from 01 June 2022 to 27 July 2022 is given in Annexure-I. (b)
- The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), has recently published a Climjte Ch~nge report entitled "Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region" (htt :llcccr.tro met.res.in/home/docs/cccr/2020 Book Assessmentoff'Ilmatedhan eOverT. dD. The report highlights the effects of human-made global warming induced eli ate change. The summer monsoon precipitation (June to September) over India has decjined around 6% from 1951 to 2015, with notable decrease over the Indo-Gangetic Plains and he W stern Ghats. There is an emerging consensus, based on multiple datasets and climate m del sill ulations, that the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosol forcing over the Northern Hemisphere have considerably offset the expected precipitation increase from Green House G s (GHG) warming and contributed to the observed decline in summer monsoon precipitation~ The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) experienced a temperature rise of about 1.3°C du ing 1 51-2014. Several areas of HKH have experienced a declining trend in snowfall and also r ttreat f glaciers in recent decades. In contrast, the high-elevation Karakoram Himalayas have e perie ced higher winter snowfall that has shielded the region from glacier shrinkage. (c)

## The main summary of the Report given in Annexure-II

- Dissemination of forecasts and warnings for extreme weather events It'ke he vy rainfall are the primary mandates of this ministry. The development related data are being maintained by the respective State Governments. However, IMD forewarn the State Go~ernm t and the disaster response teams with impact based forecasting and colour coded warnings for t mely action. (d)
- The extreme rainfall events are induced by the anthropogenic impacts]1 the eather and climate system. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has im Ierne ted various action plans such as National Action Plan for Climate Change and State ctio Plan for Climate Change towards adapting and mitigating these impacts on the climate s stem. (e)

## STATEIUT-WISE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION Period 01-06-2022 to 27-07-2022

Annexure-I

| SNO   | STATEIUT                                  |   ACTUAL (mm_l | NORMAl _(_mml   | %DEP.   | CAT.   |
|-------|-------------------------------------------|----------------|-----------------|---------|--------|
|       | REGION: EAST AND NORTH EAST INDIA         |          597.3 | 703             | -15%    | N      |
| 1     | ARUNACHAL PRADESH                         |          880.6 | 929             | -5%     | N      |
| 2     | ASSAM                                     |          897.3 | ~14.2           | 1 10%   | N      |
| 3     | MEGHALAYA                                 |         1770.1 | Ip24.6          | 16%     | N      |
| 4     | NAGALAND                                  |          462.2 | ~24.2           | -12%    | N      |
| 5     | MANIPUR                                   |          363.2 | ,,46.1          | -33%    | D      |
| 6     | MIZORAM                                   |          667.8 | 789.3           | -15%    | N      |
| 7     | TRlPURA                                   |          549.9 | 752.3           | -27%    | D      |
| 8     | SIKKIM                                    |          888.8 | I 856           | 4%      | N      |
| 9     | WEST BENGAL                               |          478.2 | I rJ52.6        | -27%    | D      |
| 10    | JHARKHAND                                 |          232.8 | ~67.4           | -50%    | D      |
| 11    | BIHAR                                     |          269.1 | ~62.9           | -42%    | D      |
|       | REGION: NORTH WEST INDIA                  |          261.9 | ~57.5           | 2%      | N      |
| 1     | UTI AR PRADESH                            |          155.1 | ~22.9           | -52%    | D      |
| 2     | UTI ARAKHAND                              |          453.9 | ~36.1           | -15%    | N      |
| 3     | HARYANA                                   |          202.8 | 184.9           | 10%     | N      |
| 4     | CHANDIGARH (UT)                           |          499.8 | ~79.7           | 32%     | E      |
| 5     | DELHI (U1')                               |          207.9 | 27.7            | -9%     | N      |
| 6     | PUNJAB                                    |          224.6 | 1193.7          | 16%     | N      |
| 7     | HIMACHAL PRADESH                          |          282.7 | 1321.2          | -12%    | N      |
| 8     | JAMMU & KASHMIR (UT)                      |          281.3 | b34.1           | 20%     | E      |
| 9     | LADAKH (UT)                               |           10.7 | 1 10.6          | 1%      | N      |
| 10    | RAJASTHAN                                 |          308   | 194.3           | 58%     | E      |
|       | REGION: CENTRAL INDIA                     |          562.2 | 448.4           | 25%     | E      |
| 1     | ODISHA                                    |          497.1 | 1501.6          | -1%     | N      |
| 2     | MADHYA PRADESH                            |          496.1 | I 407           | 22%     | E      |
| 3     | GUJARAT                                   |          529.9 | 331.8           | 60%     | LE     |
| 4     | DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI AND DAMAN & DIU (UT) |         1950.4 | 128.6           | 73%     | LE     |
| 5     | GOA                                       |         2023.7 | 836.3           | 10%     | N      |
| 6     | MAHARASHTRA                               |          660.4 | 490.6           | 35%     | E      |
| 7     | CHHATIISGARH                              |          564.7 | 1512.7          | 10%     | N      |
|       | REGION: SOUTH PENINSULA                   |          440.2 | 1339.6          | 30%     | E      |
| 1     | ANDAMAN & NICOBAR (UT)                    |          797.7 | 750.5           | 6%      | N      |
| 2     | ANDHRA PRADESH                            |          250.6 | 1207.7          | 21%     | E      |
| 3     | TELANGANA                                 |          665   | 321.1           | 107%    | LE     |
| 4     | TAMILNADU                                 |          196.4 | 110.8           | 77%     | LE     |
| 5     | PUDUCHERRY (UT)                           |          182.4 | 144.7           | 26%     | E      |
| 6     | KARNATAKA                                 |          518.1 | 421.8           | 23%     | E      |
| 7     | KERALA                                    |          929.4 | 224.21          | -24%    | D      |
| 8     | LAKSHADWEEP (UT)                          |          632   | 599.81          | 5%      | N      |
|       | COUNTRY: INDIA                            |          451.5 | 408.9           | 10%     | N      |

| LEGENDS:                  | LEGENDS:                         | LEGENDS:                   |
|---------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------------|
| LargeExcess: (+60%ormore) | Lar_g_eDeficient:_f:-60%to-99% ) | A:A,ctuaIR~infall(rom)     |
| Excess: (+20%to+59%)      | Scanf)!:_f20%to-99%)             | N:N__e_rmaQiainfall( mm    |
| Normal: (+19%to-19%)      | NoRain(-100%)                    | D: Departurefromnormalrss) |
| Deficient: (-20%to-59%)   | DataInadequate: **               | Rainfalluptotl.amm: *      |

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## Highlights of the Assessment report

The summary on the variability and change of the regional climate system based on he 12 chapters in this book is as follows.

## Observed Changes in Global Climate

The global average temperature has risen by around 1°C since p~e-ind strial times. This magnitude and rate of warming cannot be explained by natural variations alone and must necessarily take into account changes due to human activities. Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols and changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) during the industrial period havb substantially altered the atmospheric composition, and consequently the planetary energy balance, I and are thus primarily responsible for the present-day climate change. Warming since the 1950s haJ already contributed to a significant increase in weather and climate extremes globally (e.g., heat waveJ, droughts, heavy precipitation, and severe cyclones), changes in precipitation and wind patter s (inc luding shifts in the global monsoon systems), warming and acidification of the global oceans, melti g of sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

## Projected Changes in Global Climate

Global climate models project a continuation of human-induced chmate hange during the twenty-first century and beyond. If the current GHG emission rates are susthined, the global average temperature is likely to rise by nearly 5°C, and possibly more, by the end O{I the enty-first century. Even if all the commitments (called the "Nationally Determined Contributio s") made under the 2015 Paris agreement are met, it is projected that global warming will exceed 3°C y the lend of the century. However, temperature rise will not be uniform across the planet; some parts o~the w1rld will experience greater warming than the global average. Such large changes in temperature will gre~tly accelerate other changes that are already underway in the climate system, such as the changif g pa ms of rainfall and increasing temperature extremes.

## Climate Change in India: Observed and Projected Changes

## Temperature Rise Over India

India's average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 901-' 018. This rise in temperature is largely on account of GHG-induced warming, partially ffset Iby forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols and changes in LULC. By the end of the twe l ty-fir~t century, average temperature over India is projected to rise by approximately 4.4°C relative to he recrnt past (1976-2005 average), under the RCP8.5 scenario. Projections by climate models of he Coupled Model Inter­ comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) are based on multiple standardize forcing scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Each scenario is a time serie~ of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of GHGs, aerosols, and chemically active gases as well as LULC changes through the twenty-first century, characterized by the resulting Radia ive F4rcing (A measure of an imbalance in the Earth's energy budget owing to natural (e.g., volcanic e ptions) or human-induced (e.g., GHG from fossil fuel combustion) changes) in the year 2100 (IPeC 2q13). The two most commonly analyzed scenarios in this report are "RCP4.5" (an intermediate' stabilization pathway that results in a Radiative Forcing of 4.5 W/m2 in 2100) and "RCP8.5" (a high co centration pathway resulting in a Radiative Forcing of8.5 W/m2 in 2100).

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In the recent 30-year period (1986-2015), temperatures of the warmest day an the c Idest night of the year have risen by about 0.63°C and O.4°C, respectively.

By the end of the twenty-first century, these temperatures are projected to rise by ap roximately 4.7°C and 5.5°C, respectively, relative to the corresponding temperatures in the recent past (1976-2005 average), under the RCP8.5 scenario.

By the end of the twenty-first century, the frequencies of occurrence of warm days a d warm nights are projected to increase by 55% and 70%, respectively, relative to the reference feriOd 1976-2005, under the RCP8.5 scenario. I

The frequency of summer (April-June) heat waves over India is projected to lbe3 to 4 times higher by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 scenario, as compared td the If76-2005 baseline period. The average duration of heat wave events is also projected to apprOXijlately double, but with a substantial spread among models.

In response to the combined rise in surface temperature and humidity, amplification of heat stress is expected across India, particularly over the Indo-Gangetic and Indus river baSilS'

## Indian Ocean Warming

Sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Indian Ocean has risen by 1°C on av rage during 19512015, markedly higher than the global average SST warming ofO.7°C, over th5 same eriod. Ocean heat content in the upper 700 m (OHC700) of the tropical Indian Ocean has also exhibited n increasing trend over the past six decades (1955-2015), with the past two decades (1998-2bI5) aving witnessed a notably abrupt rise. [

During the twenty-first century, SST and ocean heat content in the tropical Indi n Oc an are projected to continue to rise.

## Changes in Rainfall

The summer monsoon precipitation (June to September) over India h~s decli'ned by around 6% from 1951 to 2015, with notable decreases over the Indo-Gangetic Plains and he W stern Ghats. There is an emerging consensus, based on multiple datasets and climate model simJlation., that the radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosol forcing over the Northern Hemisphere havF considerably offset the expected precipitation increase from GHG warming and contributed to the observed decline in summer monsoon precipitation.

There has been a shift in the recent period toward more frequent dry pells 27% higher during 1981-2011 relative to 1951-1980) and more intense wet spells during the sum er m nsoon season. The frequency of localized heavy precipitation occurrences has increased worldwi in rerponse to increased atmospheric moisture content. Over central India, the frequency of daily precipitation extremes with rainfall intensities exceeding 150 mm per day increased by about 75% during 1950-2bI5.

With continued global warming and anticipated reductions in anthropogenic aeros II e~issions in the future, CMIP5 models project an increase in the mean and variability of mo I soon recipitation by the end of the twenty-first century, together with substantial increases in daily precipitati n extremes.

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## Droughts

The overall decrease of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall during the lrst 6decades has led to an increased propensity for droughts over India. Both the frequency and spati~l extent of droughts have increased significantly during 1951-2016. In particular, areas over centra Indi~, southwest coast, southern peninsula and north-eastern India have experienced more than 2 droughts per decade, on average, during this period. The area affected by drought has also increased by 1.3% per decade over the same period. J

Climate model projections indicate a high likelihood of increase in the frequ ncy (>2 events per decade), intensity and area under drought conditions in India by the end of the twen -first century under the RCP8.5 scenario, resulting from the increased variability of monsoon p !ecipitation and increased water vapour demand in a warmer atmosphere.

## Sea Level Rise

Sea levels have risen globally because of the continental ice melt and thermal expan ion of ocean water in response to global warming. Sea-level rise in the North Indian Ocean (N!IO)odcurred at a rate of 1.06-1.75 mm per year during 1874-2004 and has accelerated to 3.3 mm perlyear i~1 the last two and a half decades (1993-2017), which is comparable to the current rate of global mean se -level rise.

At the end of the twenty-first century, steric sea level in the NIO is projected to ris by approximately 300 mm relative to the average over 1986-2005 under the RCP4.5 scenario, wit the corresponding projection for the global mean rise being approximately 180 mm.

## Tropical Cyclones

There has been a significant reduction in the annual frequency of tropical cyclones pver the NIO basin since the middle of the twentieth century (1951-2018). In contrast, the frequency of very severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) during the post-monsoon season has increased significantly (+1 event per decade) during the last two decades (2000-2018). However, a clear signal of anthropogeni warming on these trends has not yet emerged. 'I

Climate models project a rise in the intensity of tropical cyclones in the NId basin during the twenty­ first century.

## Changes in the Himalayas

The Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) experienced a temperature rise of about 1.3°C during 1951-2014. Several areas of HKH have experienced a declining trend in snowfall and also r1treat of glaciers in recent decades. In contrast, the high-elevation Karakoram Himalayas have rlxperi need higher winter snowfall that has shielded the region from glacier shrinkage.

By the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean surface temperature ver ~KH is projected to increase by about 5.2°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CMIP5 projections under t e RCP8.5 scenario indicate an increase in annual precipitation, but decrease in snowfall over the i-n<H egion by the end of the twenty-first century, with large spread across models.

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## ~~~~

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## Conclusions

Since the middle of the twentieth century, India has witnessed a rise in average temperature; a decrease in monsoon precipitation; a rise in extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts, and sea levels; and an increase in the intensity of severe cyclones, alongside other changes in the monsoon system. There is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have influenced these changes in regional climate. Human-induced climate change is expected to continue apace during the twenty-first century. To improve the accuracy of future climate projections, particularly in the context of regional forecasts, it is essential to develop strategic approaches for improving the knowledge of Earth system processes, and to continue enhancing observation systems and climate models.

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