Lok Sabha Question No. 2307 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2023-03-15
Subject: Change of Weather Pattern
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Su Thirunavukkarasar, Ravneet Singh

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 2307 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 15 TH  MARCH, 2023

## CHANGE OF WEATHER PATTERN

## 2307.     SHRI THlRUNAVUKKARASAR SU: SHRI RAVNEET SINGH BITTU:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  it  is  a  fact  that  the  northern  parts  of  the  country  are  witnessing  severe  cold conditions amidst changing weather patterns caused by climate change;
- (b) if so, the details thereof along with the reasons therefor;
- (c) whether the El Nino and La Nina impact has also been increasing in the country triggering significant climate change and if so, the details thereof;
- (d) whether the Government is taking any  measures to mitigate the impact of climate change in the country thus minimizing the impact on human life including flora and fauna in the country; and
- (e) if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a) - (b)  Yes Sir. It is a fact that the northern parts of India, during the winter months (January & February), have experienced severe cold conditions this year. About 74 cold wave events were  reported  over  North  India  while  over  South  India  only  6  cold  wave  events  were reported  in  January  2023.  Moreover,  analysis  of  cold  wave  data  since  1971  shows  a decrease  in  cold  wave  events  over  North  India.  It  is  seen  that  the  cold  wave  conditions have significantly decreased over northern parts of India in the recent decades (2001-2020) as compared to 1971-80 decade.

It  is  important to  note that  weather patterns and their impact  on  specific  regions  can  be complex and affected by a variety of factors, including but not limited to climate change. While climate change is a global phenomenon that affects the planet as a whole, its impact on specific regions and weather patterns can vary widely. It is generally agreed upon by the scientific community that climate change is contributing to more extreme weather events worldwide,  including  heat  waves,  droughts,  and  extreme  cold  conditions.  However,  the specific  mechanisms  through  which climate change affects regional  weather  patterns  can be complex and still require further research.

It is mentioned that, factors such as changes in wind patterns, cloud cover, and atmospheric moisture  content  can  all  contribute  to  changes  in  temperature  and  precipitation  levels. Additionally,  local  factors  such as urbanization and  deforestation  can  further  worsen the impact of climate change over the region.

- (c) The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is generated via seasonally modulated interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, influences severe weather, rainfall,  river  flow  and  agricultural  production  over  large  parts  of  the  world  including Indian region.  The influence of El-Niño on heat wave and cold wave events are evident and it  is  observed that the  intense  heat  waves are  experienced  during El-Niño  years and intense cold wave during La-Niña years.

In general, Indian Southwest Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is weaker than normal during the El Nino years and vice versa during La Nina years.  During the period 1951-2022, there were 16 El-Nino years and during 9 of these years, ISMR was below normal indicating that there is no one to one association between El-Nino and ISMR. However, there is stronger inverse relationship between El-Nino and rainfall during later half of the monsoon season (particularly with September rainfall). Recent studies reported that frequency and intensity of  extreme  El-Niño  and  La-Niña  events  in  the  Pacific  Ocean  have  increased  in  recent decades,  which  has  led  to  more  frequent  and  intense  droughts  and  floods  in  India.  In addition  to  ENSO  conditions  over  the  Pacific,  other  factors  such  as  Indian  Ocean  Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also have influence on the South Asian southwest monsoon. A  positive  (or  negative)  Indian  Ocean  Dipole  (IOD)  is  associated  with  a  stronger  (or weaker) than normal monsoon over the region.

- (d)- (e)    Climate Change is one of the reasons of increase in frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events. IMD issues forecasts and early warnings related to extreme weather events and  share  the  same  with  Disaster  Management  Authorities  as  well  as  general  public through various platforms for necessary preparedness and to support mitigation measures.

IMD  follows  a  seamless  forecasting  strategy.  The  long-range  forecasts  (for  the  whole season) issued are being followed with extended range forecast issued on every Thursday with a validity period of four weeks. To follow up the extended range forecast, IMD issues short  to  medium  range  forecast  and  warnings  daily  valid  up  to  next  five  days  with  an outlook  for  subsequent  two  days.  The  short  to  medium  range  forecast  and  warning  at district and station level are issued by state level Meteorological Centres (MCs)/Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs) with a validity of next five days and are updated twice a day. The short to medium range forecast is followed by very short range forecast of severe weather up to three hours (nowcast) for all the districts and 1171 cities and towns. These nowcasts are updated every three hours.

Forecast is issued for 36 meteorological sub-divisions from National Weather Forecasting Centre, IMD HQ and is updated four times a day.  The forecasts and nowcasts are issued at District  Level  and  Station  Level  by  State  Level  Meteorological  Centres  and  Regional Meteorological Centres.

IMD is implementing Impact Based Forecast (IBF) which gives details of what the weather will  do  rather than  what the  weather  will  be.  It  contains the  details  of  impacts  expected from the  severe  weather  elements and  guidelines to  general  public about  do's and  don'ts while  getting  exposed  to  severe  weather.  These  guidelines  are  finalised  in  collaboration with  National  Disaster  Management  Authority  (NDMA)  and  is  already  implemented successfully for cyclone, heat wave, thunderstorm and heavy rainfall.

IMD has  taken  various  initiatives  in  recent  years  for  improvement  in  dissemination  of weather forecast and warning services based on latest tools and technologies. The forecasts and warnings are disseminated to users including disaster managers by e-mail on regular basis. In addition  to this,  WhatsApp groups are  created  including  disaster  managers and IMD  officials  and  forecast  &  warnings  are  disseminated  through  this  facility  also.  The forecast  &  Warnings  are  uploaded  in  social  media  &  website  for  reference  by  all concerned. The nowcasts related to Severe Weathers are disseminated through SMS also to the registered users.

In 2020, IMD has launched seven of its services (Current Weather, Nowcast, City Forecast, Rainfall  Information, Tourism  Forecast,  Warnings and Cyclone)  with ' UMANG '  mobile App for use by public. Moreover, in 2020, IMD had developed mobile App ' MAUSAM ' for  weather  forecasting,  ' Meghdoot '  for  Agromet  advisory  dissemination  and  ' Damin i' for lightning alert.

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