Lok Sabha Question No. 289 (STARRED), answered on 2022-03-23
Subject: Monsoon in Andhra Pradesh
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Chinta Anuradha, Goddeti Madhavi

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## LOKSABHA STARRED QUESTION NO. *289 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY,

## 23RD MARCH, ~022

## MONSOON IN ANDHRA PRADESH

*289. SHRIMATI CHINTA ANURADHA: SHRIMATI GODDETI MADHAVI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether Indian Meteorological Department (lMD) forecast of monsoon in Andhra Pradesh has been accurate during the current year and if so, the tletails!thereof;
- (b) whether the Government has identified the reasons for heavy r~ins a1d if so, the details ~~e~ I
- (c) whether any scientific advances have been made with re· ard t making precise predictions and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARqE) F R MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYr AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. nTENDRA SINGH)

- (a) to (c): A Statement is laid on the Table of the House.

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## STATEMENT LAID ON THE TABLE OF THE LOK SABRA INRE LYTr(a) to (c) OF STARRED QUESTION NO. *289 REGARDING "MONSOON IN AND P DESH" TO BE ANSWERED ON MARCH 23, 2022

- (a) Yes Sir. India Meteorological Defartment (IMD) issued forecast or so th west monsoon seasonal rainfall (I" Stage) on 16t April 2021 (Figure la) and its rpdat was given on 1st June 2021 (Figure 1b). The observed rainfall distribution during 2121 S uthwest monsoon season is given in Figure 1c.

From the figures (Figure 1a and Figure lb), it is found that the above normal monsoon seasonal rainfall was predicted for most parts of Andhra Pradesh.

From the observed rainfall distribution given in Figure lc, it is ound at most parts of Andhra Pradesh received above normal rainfall during 2021. As per Ithis mbp, the percentage departure of seasonal rainfall of Andhra Pradesh against the norlal is 20 which comes under above normal (excess) category.

- The heavy rains received over South Peninsula and adjacent Central India during the Southwest monsoon season 2021 was mainly associated with passage of Low Pressure Systems during the season. During the 2021 SW monsoon Season, J total lumber of 13 Low Pressure Systems formed and majority of the systems formed ov ~ Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards causing intense rainfall activity over Central i Peni sular India. (b)

Number of Low pressure System (LPS) including Low (L), We I Mar ed Low (WML), Depression (D), Deep Depression (DD), Cyclonic Storm (CS) and numtr of LPS days in monsoon 2021 are given below:

| Systems/ Month   |   Cyclonic Storm |   Deep Depression |   Depression |   Well-marked pressure area | low   |   Low-pressure area |
|------------------|------------------|-------------------|--------------|-----------------------------|-------|---------------------|
| June             |                0 |                 0 |            0 |                           0 |       |                   1 |
| July             |                0 |                 0 |            0 |                           1 |       |                   2 |
| August           |                0 |                 0 |            0 |                           0 |       |                   2 |
| Sepetmber        |                1 |                 1 |            1 |                           2 |       |                   1 |

- IMD regularly reviews the operational long range forecasting Systel to improve it through in . .. . n wi h various r earch in titutk ns in the count . (c) house research activities & collaboratio t es I ry The operational statistical models are mainly improved by impleme9ting tHe latest state of the art statistical forecasting techniques and by using better predictolils. Si~ilarly, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has launched National Monsoon Mission ~ with a vision to develop state-of-the-art dynamical prediction system for the mon~oon rainfall in different time scales.IMD used Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) model for preparing operational forecasts since 2018 monsoon season. ~

This year, IMD has implemented a new strategy for issuing monthly and s asonal operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the C?U?tryby .~?difyi g the. existing two stage forecasting strategy. The new strategy uses the existing statls~lcal for,ecastmg system to generate these forecasts along with a newly developed Multi-¥odell Ensemble (MME) forecasting s~s~embased on coupled gl~bal cl~mate m~dels (CGC s). from different global climate prediction and research centers mcludmg IMD s Monsoo MISSionCFS (MMCFS) model.

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IMD follows a seamless forecasting strategy. The long-range forecas s (for he whole season) issued are being followed with extended range forecast issued on every Thursday with a validity period of four weeks. To follow up the extended range fore ast, I issues short to medium range forecast and warnings at 36 meteorological SUb-diVI'isionslevels daily four times valid up to next five days with an outlook for subsequent two d ys. The short to medium range forecast and warning at district and station level are issued with a validity of next five days and are updated twice a day. The short to medium ran~ forejast is followed by very short range forecast of severe weather up to three hours (nowcasb for II the districts and 1089 cities and towns. These nowcasts are updated every three hours.

IMD started issuing Impact Based Forecast (IBF) recently which give dttailS of what the weather will do rather than what the weather will be. It contains the etails of impacts expected from the severe weather elements and guidelines to general pub ic about do's and don'ts while getting exposed to severe weather. These guidelines are finalis d in collaboration with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and I'~ already implemented successfully for cyclone, heat wave, thunderstorm and heavy rainfall.

The weather forecast accuracy is verified by !MD and errors and s· ill scles are calculated seasonwise and annually. The heavy rainfall warning skill for I the year 2021 and its comparison with the period 2002-20 are given in the Figure 2. From ~hefig~re, it is found that Probability of Detection (POD) for heavy rainfall warning with 24 hr lea period is 74% in I 2021, which has improved by 51% in year 2021 as compared to their skill between 2002-20. Both the False Alarm Rate (FAR) and Missing Rate (MR) are ~6% in 2021, which has improved by 21% & 53% respectively in year 2021 as compared to their s ill between 200220for 24 hour lead time.

Fig 1a. Probability forecast of tercile categories (normal) for the seasona rainfall over India during the 2021 southwest monsoon season (June-September). The igure illustrates the most likely categories as well as their probabilities. The white shaded are s repr sent climatological probabilities.

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Fig lb. Updated Probability forecast for the seasonal rainfall over southwest monsoon season (June -September). The figure categories as well as their probabilities. the 2021

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Fig. 2: Heavy rainfall warning skill during 2021(FAR (False Alarm Rlate),~(Missing Rate), PoD (Probability of Detection) and CSI (Critical Success Ind~x).IMb has high skill for heavy rainfall warning upto Day 5 as POD for Day 5 forecast is ore than 50%.

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