Lok Sabha Question No. 3454 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2023-03-22
Subject: Rise in Heat Waves
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: V. Kalanidhi, Vishnu Dayal Ram, Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi, Kani K. Navas

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 3454 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, 22 ND  MARCH, 2023

## RISE IN HEAT WAVES

## 3454.    DR. KALANIDHI VEERASWAMY:

SHRI VISHNU DAYAL RAM:

SHRI GHANSHYAM SINGH LODHI:

SHRI K. NAVASKANI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government is aware of the alarming rate of heat waves in the recent years, which is an impact of climate change, if so, the details of the steps taken to reduce the causes of heat waves in the upcoming years, if not, the reasons therefor;
- (b) the  details  of  the  impact  of  heat  waves  on  the  economy  in  the  last  climate  year  and  if  so, whether the Government has taken any steps to prevent life and economic loss due to heat waves in the upcoming year and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (c) whether all States/UTs have submitted their Heat Action Plan to the Union Government, if so, the details thereof along with the action taken by the Union Government in this regard;
- (d) the extent to which the temperature of the earth is increasing every year and the possibility of disasters is looming large;
- (e) the  percentage of melting of glaciers recorded in the Himalayan region during the last five years; and
- (f) whether  the  Government  has  taken  cognizance  of  the  fact  that  the  frequency  of  extreme weather events such as floods and heatwaves is projected to rise manifold in the country in the future due to climate change, if so, the details of the preventive steps that are proposed to be taken by the Government to address this major issue?

## ANSWER

THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE) FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND EARTH SCIENCES (DR. JITENDRA SINGH)

- (a-b) Yes Sir. The Government is aware of the increasing rate of heat waves in the recent years. As per the Climate summary of the summer season [Mar-Apr-May (MAM)]-2022, the trend in heat wave in most parts of the country has been increasing. Average maximum temperature of February month is highest in 2023 over All India & Northwest India, since 1901.

As  per  the  recent  IPCC  Sixth  Assessment  Report,  the  global  mean  concentrations  of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases which are the drivers of climate change have increased in South Asia region, which will result in more intense and frequent increase in the heatwaves and humid heat stress during the 21 st century.

Loss of lives was reported during the heat wave episodes in 2022. The extreme heat wave hit at the critical time during the final period of the growing season, and caused extensive impacts on the agricultural  sector. To minimize the loss of life due to heatwaves, during the period from 1 April to 30 June, IMD issues colour coded impact based heatwave warnings for the benefit  of  the  public  and  stake  holders.  IMD  also  issues  the  impacts  and  suggested  actions with  respect  to  the  intensity  of  heatwave  and  the  colour  coded  warnings  are  issued,  in collaboration with NDMA.

Recent developments in Heatwave Early Warning Services of IMD are as follow;

-  Two special heat wave impact based bulletins are prepared in addition to routine daily bulletins. The first one is issued at 0800 hours IST with 24 hours subdivision wise impact based heat warning and the 2 nd one is issued at 1600 hours IST with 5 days subdivision wise impact based heat warning in graphics as well as text format.
-  Extended range forecast bulletin (include temperature forecast and warnings for next two weeks) is issued every Thursday.
-  The  following  new  Information  in  Web-GIS  is  added  for  better  interpretation  of  Heat Wave warnings by various users:-
- i. Interactive  Map  for  actual  maximum  temperature  &  its  departure  from  normal temperature based on the situations of the day.
- ii. Interactive Map for Heat Wave and Severe Heat Wave along with Warm Nights and very Warm Nights based on the situations of the day.
- iii. Normal Relative Humidity (RH) for March to June months based on 0830 and 1730 IST are provided to assess the impact of RH during the Heat Wave days since the impact of Heat Wave becomes more severe with increase in the RH.

In  addition,  IMD hosts FAQs on heat waves, NDMA Heat Wave Guidelines in a dedicated page  created  in  IMD  website  ( https://mausam.imd.gov.in/ )  with  the  name  All  India  Heat Wave Information.

-  For Dissemination  of Heat Wave Warning, the following modes are used:
- i. Mass Media: Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Community Radio, Private TV): Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters
- ii. Weekly & Daily Weather Video
- iii. Internet  (e-mail), ftp
- iv. Public Website (mausam.imd.gov.in)
- v. IMD Apps:  Mausam/ Meghdoot/DAMIN/RAIN ALARM
- vi. Social Media: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, BLOG
- (c) Yes. IMD in collaboration with local health departments and NDMA have started heat action plan in many parts of the country to forewarn about the heat waves and also advising actions to be taken during such occasions.

The Heat Action Plan which became operational in 2013, is a comprehensive early warning system and preparedness plan for extreme heat events. The Plan presents immediate as well as longer-term actions to increase preparedness, information-sharing, and response coordination to reduce the health impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable populations. NDMA and IMD are working  with  23  states  prone  to  high  temperatures  leading  to  heat-wave  conditions  for supporting heat action plans.

The main aims of the Heat Action Plan are;

-  Establish  Early  Warning  System  and  Inter-Agency  Coordination  to  alert  residents  on predicted  high  and  extreme  temperatures.  Who  will  do  what,  when,  and  how  is  made clear to individuals and units of key departments, especially health department.
-  Capacity  building  /  training  programme  for  health  care  professionals  at  local  level  to recognize and respond to heat-related illnesses, particularly during extreme heat events. These  training  programmes  should  focus  on  medical  officers,  paramedical  staff  and community  health  staff  so  that  they  can  effectively  prevent  and  manage  heat-related medical issues to reduce mortality and morbidity.
-  Public Awareness and community outreach Disseminating public awareness messages on how to protect against the extreme heat-wave through print, electronic and social media and  Information,  Education  and  Communication  (IEC)  materials  such  as  pamphlets, posters  and  advertisements  and  Television  Commercials  (TVCs) on Do  and Don't  and treatment measures for heat related illnesses.
-  Collaboration with non government and civil society: Collaboration with nongovernmental  organizations  and  civil  society  organizations  to  improve  bus  stands, building  temporary  shelters,  wherever  necessary,  improved  water  delivery  systems  in public areas and other innovative measures to tackle Heat wave conditions.
-  Identifying vulnerable populations and the health risks specific to each group.
-  Developing effective strategies, agency coordination and response planning that addresses heat-health risks.
-  Heat Health Information Surveillance System (HHISS) to monitor and assess the impact of heat waves on human health.
-  Reducing  Heat  Exposure  and  Promoting  Adaptive  Measures  by  launching  new  efforts including mapping of high-risk areas, access to potable drinking water and cooling spaces during extreme heat days.
-  Evaluating and updating the Heat Action Plan regularly.
- (d) Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.08°C per decade since 1880. Global mean temperature in 2022 is currently estimated to be 1.15 ± 0.13°C above the preindustrial (18501900) average, likely making the past eight years (2015-2022) the warmest on record. Despite La Niña conditions keeping global temperature low for the second consecutive year, 2022 is still most likely to be 5th or 6th warmest year on record, as per WMO reports

The annual mean land surface air temperature averaged over India during 2022 was +0.51℃ above the long-term average (1981-2010 period). The year 2022 was the fifth warmest year on record since nationwide records commenced in 1901. However, this is lower than the highest warming observed over India during 2016 (anomaly of +0.71℃) and higher than the previous year 2021 (anomaly of +0.44℃).

- (e) Documented  studies  show  that  most  of  the  glaciers  of  the  eastern,  central  and  western Himalayas  are  losing  a  significant  mass  but  with  varying  rates  of  melting  (mass  loss  and retreat).  NCPOR (MoES) has been monitoring six glaciers in the Chandra basin of western Himalayas. These studied glaciers have experienced an average ice mass loss of -0.47 m w.e. a-1 and lost 2.3± 0.46 m w.e of glacier-wide ice during the last 5 hydrological years (20172022). The estimated melting rate (in percentage) of these glaciers are ranging from 0.1-1.1% per annum (mean value is 0.5% per annum) during the last five years.
- (f) IMD issues forecasts and warnings related to extreme weather events like heavy rainfall and cyclones  that  may  lead  to  flood,  heatwave,  thunderstorm/lightning  etc.  and  share  the  same with Disaster Management Authorities as well as general public through various platforms for necessary preparedness and to support mitigation measures.

IMD follows a seamless forecasting strategy. The long-range forecasts (for the whole season) issued  are  being  followed  with  extended  range  forecast  issued  on  every  Thursday  with  a validity period of four weeks. To follow up the extended range forecast, IMD issues short to medium  range  forecast  and  warnings  daily  valid  up  to  next  five  days  with  an  outlook  for subsequent two days. The short to medium range forecast and warning at district and station level are issued by state level Meteorological Centres (MCs)/Regional Meteorological Centres (RMCs) with a validity of next five days and are updated twice a day. The short to medium range forecast is followed by very short range forecast of severe weather up to three hours (nowcast) for all the districts and 1171 cities and towns. These nowcasts are updated every three hours.

Forecast  is  issued  for  36  meteorological  sub-divisions  from  National  Weather  Forecasting Centre, IMD HQ and is updated four times a day.  The forecasts and nowcasts are issued at District  Level  and  Station  Level  by  State  Level  Meteorological  Centres  and  Regional Meteorological Centres.

IMD is implementing Impact Based Forecast (IBF) which gives details of what the weather will do rather than what the weather will be. It contains the details of impacts expected from the  severe  weather  elements  and  guidelines  to  general  public  about  do's  and  don'ts  while getting  exposed  to  severe  weather.  These  guidelines  are  finalised  in  collaboration  with National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and is already implemented successfully for cyclone, heat wave, thunderstorm and heavy rainfall. Work is in progress to implement the same for other severe weather elements.

While issuing the warning suitable colour code is used to bring out the impact of the severe weather  expected  and  to  signal  the  Disaster  Management  about  the  course  of  action  to  be taken  with  respect  to  impending  disaster  weather  event.    Green  color  corresponds  to  no warning hence no action is needed, yellow color corresponds to be watchful and get updated information, orange color to be alert and be prepared to take action whereas red color signals to take action.

The forecasts and warnings are disseminated to users including disaster managers by e-mail on regular basis. In addition to this, WhatsApp groups are created including disaster managers and  IMD officials and forecast  & warnings are disseminated through this facility also. The forecast & Warnings are uploaded in social media & website for reference by all concerned. The nowcasts related to Severe Weathers are disseminated through SMS also to the registered users.

In addition to this, as and when the situation arises, Press Releases are issued by IMD and the same are also disseminated by all the platforms mentioned above.

IMD has taken various initiatives in recent years for improvement in dissemination of weather forecast  and  warning  services  based  on  latest  tools  and  technologies.  In  2020,  IMD  has launched seven of its services (Current Weather, Nowcast, City Forecast, Rainfall Information, Tourism Forecast, Warnings and Cyclone) with ' UMANG ' mobile App for use by  public.  Moreover,  in  2020,  IMD  had  developed  mobile  App  ' MAUSAM '  for  weather forecasting,  ' Meghdoot '  for  Agromet  advisory  dissemination  and  ' Damin i'  for  lightning alert.

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