Lok Sabha Question No. 1890 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2021-02-12
Subject: Regional Centre of NCMRWF
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Rajendra Agrawal

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO.1890

## TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 2021

## REGIONAL CENTRE OF NCMRWF

## 1890.   SHRI RAJENDRA AGRAWAL :

## Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the steps taken by the Government to improve the weather forecasting in the country;
- (b) whether the Government has any plan to open the regional centres of National Centre for MediumRange  Weather  Forecasting  (NCMRWF)  in  various  cities  and  states  of  the country to improve weather forecasting and prediction;
- (c) if so, the details thereof, State/UT-wise and location-wise; and
- (d) if not, the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) Under the National Monsoon Mission, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has implemented two state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems for short to medium range, extended range and  seasonal  forecasts.  All  these  initiatives  have  helped  to  improve  the  skill  of  monsoon forecasts  over  the  country.  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  started  using  the Monsoon  Mission  dynamical  model  to  prepare  operational  seasonal  forecast  since  2017 monsoon season.

An improved suite of prediction models has already been implemented operationally by IMD for enhanced shortrange weather forecasting through assimilation of all available Indian and global satellite data in real time.

Since December 2016 IMD is using the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Unified model run at  National  Centre  For  Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF) operationally to generate deterministic forecasts at 12 km horizontal resolution in the short to medium range (Up to 10 days). The GFS assimilates global conventional  atmospheric data as well as the data from satellites and weather radars. There also exists a high resolution meso-scale model with 3 km resolution to provide location specific forecast.

In addition, a high resolution (12 km grid scale) state of the art Global Ensemble Prediction System  (GEPS)  namely  Global  Ensemble  Forecasting  System  (GEFS)  and  Unified  model Ensemble  Prediction  System  (UMEPS)  has  been  commissioned  in  2018  for  generating operational probabilistic weather forecasts for 10 days on daily basis.

The  weather  forecasting  systems  in  the  country  are  comparable  to  most  of  the  developed countries in the world. Efforts are continuously made to improve the level of efficiency of the forecasting systems and to improve skill of weather forecasts. During the past few years, IMD  has  been  continuously  improving  weather  prediction  services  in  terms  of  accuracy, lead  time  and  associated  impact.  The  forecasts  and  warnings  are  issued  by  IMD  at  the national,  State  and  district  levels.  With  the  upgradation  of  observations  and  prediction system  noticeable  improvements  are  noticed  in  the  recent  past  in  skill  of  prediction, especially with respect to cyclones, heat waves and heavy rainfall.

It is planned to further enhance the accuracy of above mentioned weather forecasts systems with the enhancement in observational systems and advancement in numerical modeling and their effective & timely dissemination in the ensuing years.

- (b) No Sir.
- (c) Doesn't arise.
- (d) NCMRWF is a National Centre of Excellence in Weather and Climate Modelling under this ministry. The mission of the Centre is to continuously develop advanced numerical weather prediction  systems,  with  increased  reliability  and  accuracy  over  India  and  neighbouring regions through research and development. NCMRWF provides all the necessary support to IMD for the generation of weather  forecasts, and fulfils the requirements. However, IMD has  its  regional  offices  in  all  the  states  which  caters  the  need  for  better  dissemination  of weather forecasts.

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