Lok Sabha Question No. 985 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2020-02-07
Subject: Project to Study and Predict Natural Disasters
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Su Thirunavukkarasar, Prathap Simha, D. M. Kathir Anand

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 985

## TO BE ANSWERED ON FEBRUARY 07, 2020

## PROJECT TO STUDY AND PREDICT NATURAL DISASTERS

## 985.   SHRI THIRUNAVUKKARASARASU:

SHRI PRATHAP SIMHA:

SHRI D.M. KATHIR ANAND:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  Government  has  initiated  any  project  to  study  and predict cyclones, earthquakes and Tsunami occurring in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, well in advance;
- (b)
- if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (c) the  steps  taken/proposed  to  be  taken  by  the  Government  to facilitate  the  search  operations to find missing persons during the cyclones;
- (d)
- the amount allocated during the last 5 years for the purpose; and
- (e) whether  any  MoU  has  been  signed  with  foreign  countries  in  this regard and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

## (a)&(b) Yes Sir.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has initiated the following projects to improve  monitoring and  forecasting of Cyclones, Earthquakes and Tsunami:

Cyclone

-  Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) with a resolution of 23  km  was  adapted  from  National  Centre  for  Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (NOAA),  United  States  of  America  (USA).  It  has been upgraded to a resolution of 12 km to provide forecast upto 7 days from 1st June, 2018.
-  The Unified  Model  (UM)  and  Unified  Model  Ensemble  Prediction System  (UMEPS)  have  been  adapted  from  UK  Meteorological Office  (UKMO),  UK  to  provide  forecast  upto  7  days  with  12  km resolution from 1st June, 2018.
-  IMD  also  runs  cyclone  specific  Hurricane  Weather  Research  & Forecast (HWRF) Model adapted from NCEP, NOAA, USA with a resolution  of  18  km,  6  km  and  2  km  for  cyclone  track  and intensity prediction. A project has been undertaken to implement high resolution Ocean Atmospheric Coupled HWRF Model at IMD for cyclone forecasting.

## Earthquakes

To date, there is no proven scientific technique available, anywhere in the world, to predict the occurrence of earthquakes with reasonable degree of accuracy for location, time and magnitude. However, National Centre for Seismology (NCS), maintains a country-wide national seismological network, to detect and  locate earthquakes  occurring in and  around  the country. The earthquake input is disseminated to all the concerned stake holders including the State Disaster Management Authority. In  addition  data  generated  have  been  put  to  use  for  R  &  D  on various aspects of Seismology.

## Tsunami

Early Warning Services for Tsunamis are being provided by Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Sciences (INCOIS), Hyderabad, an autonomous  body  under  Ministry  of  Earth  Sciences.  ITEWC  was established  after  the  deadly  Tsunami  on  26  December,  2004  and has been operational since its establishment in October 2007. The ITEWC is capable of detecting tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring  in  the  Indian  Ocean  as  well  as  in  the  Global  Oceans within  10  minutes  of  the  occurrence  of  the  earthquake  and disseminates the advisories to the concerned authorities through email, fax, SMS, GTS and website. ITEWC is considered as one of the most modern tsunami warning centres in the world. Considering the performance of ITEWC, in October 2012, Intergovernmental  Oceanographic  Commission  (IOC)  of  UNESCO has designated ITEWC as the Tsunami Service Provider (TSP) for the  entire  Indian  Ocean  Region.  Since  then,  ITEWC  is  providing tsunami  advisories  and  related  services  to  25  countries  on  the Indian Ocean rim.

- (c) The  responsibility  of  search  and  rescue  operations  during  such natural calamities lies with the respective State Governments.
- (d) Projects to study and predict cyclones, earthquakes and Tsunami are  part  of  MoES's  umbrella  schemes  Atmosphere  and  Climate Research, Observations Science & Services (ACROSS), Seismology and Geosciences Research (SAGE) and Ocean Services, Modelling Application  Resources  and  Technology  (OSMART)  respectively. Total  budget  allocated  to  these  schemes  during  the  last  5  years are given in Annexure-I.
- (e) A few notable initiatives with various research institutes and other leading agencies include the following:

With foreign countries

-  Bilateral  agreement  with  NOAA,  USA  and  UK  Met.  Office  for improvement  in  numerical  weather  prediction  (NWP)  modelling w.r.t. global forecast system and Unified Model (UM) respectively.
-  With the support of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and  Japan  Meteorological  Agency  (JMA),  an  ensemble  prediction system  has  been  installed  in  IMD  in  2011  for  cyclone  track prediction and prediction of location specific cyclone strike probability.
-  A  bilateral  collaboration  between  India  and  United  States involving National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP), USA, IMD, Indian National Centre for Ocean  Information Services (INCOIS) and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bhubaneswar has resulted in experimental implementation of high resolution Ocean Atmosphere  Coupled  Model  viz.  Hurricane  Weather  Research  & Forecast (HWRF) Model for north Indian Ocean with resolution of 2, 6 and 18 km.

Annexure-I

(in Crores)

| Schemes   |   2015-16 |   2016-17 |   2017-18 |   2018-19 |   2019-20 |
|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
| ACROSS    |     312   |    449.47 |    423    |     348   |       380 |
| SAGE      |     131.5 |     60.01 |     88.82 |      96   |       130 |
| OSMART    |     295.5 |    315    |    326    |     440.5 |       445 |