Lok Sabha Question No. 1084 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2020-02-07
Subject: Geo Science Investigation and Disaster Management
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Thalikkottai Rajuthevar Baalu

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1084

## TO BE ANSWERED ON FEBRUARY 07, 2020

## GEO SCIENCE INVESTIGATION AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT

1084.        SHRI T.R. BAALU:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- whether  his  Ministry  has  conducted  a  detailed  geo-sciences
- (a) investigation in the earthquake-prone areas;
- (b)
- if so, the details thereof;
- (c) whether the Government is prepared to ease out/ manage the impact  of  earthquake  in  highly  populated  areas  and  if  so,  the details thereof;
- (d) whether,  the  'National  Monsoon  Mission'  initiative  has  been taken  by  the  Government  to  improve  the  current  models  to predict monsoon within a reasonable time-frame; and
- (e)
- if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- As  per  seismic  zoning  map,  prepared  by  Bureau  of  Indian Standards (BIS), the country has been divided into four  Zones i.e. Zone II to V, out of which Zone V is considered to be most seismically  active,  while  Zone  II  is  the  least.  However,  the earthquake  effects  are  found  to  be  different  within  the  same Zone. To further refine the zonation, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)  has  undertaken  hazard  assessment  on  large  scale  i.e. microzonation.  In  this  direction,  MoES  has  completed  seismic microzonation  of  Delhi  and  Kolkata  cities  and  released  the reports.  Copies  of  these  reports  have  also  been  provided  to stake  holders  of  concerned  States  and  Central  Government authorities to help in design of earthquake resistant structures, land  use  and  urban  planning.  Seismic  microzonation  of  few other areas like Jabalpur, Sikkim, Guwahati, and Bengaluru etc. has also been completed in project mode. Investigations related to  microzonation  of  4  cities  namely,  Chennai,  Bhubaneswar, Mangalore,  Coimbatore  are  expected  to  be  completed  by  the end  of  2020-21.  Additionally,  microzonation  of  8  more  cities, namely,  Kanpur,  Lucknow,  Patna,  Dhanbad,  Varanasi,  Meerut,
- (a) & (b) Agra, Amritsar shall be initiated soon.

Also, the earthquakes are being monitored on 24x7 basis by the National Centre for Seismology (NCS) to detect and disseminate the information about the earthquake parameters to all the user agencies and the disaster management authorities in less than 5 minutes.

- (c) National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has published guidelines to manage the earthquakes in the country. Guidelines have been prepared through a series of consultations with key stakeholder groups in New Delhi, Kanpur and Mumbai. These consultations identified the critical factors responsible for the high seismic risk in India and prioritized the following  six  sets  of  critical  interventions,  which  have  been presented in these Guidelines as the six pillars of earthquake management:
1. Ensure the incorporation of earthquake-resistant design features for the construction of new structures.
2. Facilitate selective strengthening and seismic retrofitting of existing  priority  and  lifeline  structures  in  earthquake-prone areas.
3. Improve the compliance regime through appropriate regulation and enforcement.
4. Improve the awareness and preparedness of all stakeholders.
5. Introduce appropriate capacity development interventions for effective earthquake management (including education, training, R&D and documentation).
6. Strengthen the emergency response capability in earthquakeprone areas.
- (d) Yes  Sir.  The  'National  Monsoon  Mission'  initiative  has  been taken by the Ministry of Earth Sciences to improve the current models  to  predict  Indian  monsoon  rainfall  and  its  variability with  reasonably  good  prediction  skill  using  dynamical  oceanatmosphere models.
- (e) Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has launched the 'Monsoon Mission'  in  2012  with  two  major  objectives:  (1)  To  build  a working partnership with the Academic and Research & Development  Organizations  at  both  national  and  international and to improve the monsoon forecast skill in the country; and (2)  To  setup  a  state-of-the-art  dynamical  modelling  framework for  improving  prediction  skill  of  (a)  Seasonal  and  Extended range predictions, and (b) Short and Medium range (up to two weeks) prediction.

These guidelines are available at https://ndma.gov.in/images/guidelines/earthquakes.pdf

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune has been coordinating  the  Monsoon  Mission  program.  The  targets  set through the above objectives have been achieved successfully during the first phase of Monsoon Mission program (2012-2017), in association with National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Indian National Centre for Ocean Information and Services (INCOIS) under MoES.

After  the  successful  completion  of  Phase-I  (2012-2017),  MoES has  launched  the  Monsoon  Mission  Phase  II  (2017-2020)  in September  2017,  with  emphasis  on  predicting  extremes  and development of climatic applications based on monsoon forecasts,  especially  in  the  field  of  agriculture  and  hydrology, while continuing model development activities.

During last three years and current year, important achievements  made  under  National Monsoon  Mission  are  as follows:

-  Development  of    a  dynamical  seasonal  prediction  system Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) of  very high resolution (of ~38km) with considerably good prediction skill  for  predicting  Indian  summer  Monsoon  rainfall  (ISMR), using a modified version of Climate Forecast System Version-2  (CFSv2)  T382  model  by  IITM.  The  model  was transferred  to  IMD  for  operational  forecasts  to  the  nation from 2017 onwards.
-  Development of dynamical extended range prediction system (up  to  4  weeks  in  advance)  of  very  high  accuracy  by  IITM which was made operational by IMD since 2017.
-  Significant improvement in prediction skill of the dynamical models  (which  was  very  low  in  the  last  decade)  through model developmental activities.
-  Development  of a very high resolution (~12km) Global Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) with 21 ensemble members  for  short  range  forecast  system  based  on  Global Ensemble  Forecast  System  (GEFS)  (T1534)  by  IITM  which has been handed over to IMD for operational implementation since  June 2018.
-  Development of 1km thunderstorm/lightening prediction system.
-  The cyclone prediction by IMD has been excellent in recent times with a very long lead time.
-  In association with IITM & NCMRWF, IMD has started giving prediction  of  heat  waves,  cold  waves  and  other  severe weather conditions at a very high skill.
-  Works for climatic applications in agriculture and hydrology are in progress in IITM, in collaboration with IMD, ICRISAT,
- 
-  for the Mission.

etc. All  information  and  predictions  are  given  for  the  whole country and thus, this Monsoon Mission program has shown its national behaviour in true sense. The achievements have been on the lines of the targets set

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