Lok Sabha Question No. 208 (STARRED), answered on 2018-12-26
Subject: Modernisation of IMD
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: JUGAL KISHORE SHARMA, RITI PATHAK

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOKSABHA

## STARRED QUESTION No. *208 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26,2018

## MODERNISATION OF IMD

*208

SHRI JUGAL KISHORE: SHRIMATI RITI PATHAK:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the weather forecast system has not been accurate in the country and if so, the details thereof along with the reaction of the Government thereto;
- (b) whether there is shortage of requisite equipments and trained employees in the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and if so, the details thereof along with the reasons therefor;
- (c) the status of modernisation programme of IMD;
- (d) whether the Government proposes to modernize and upgrade all the weather forecast centres in the country and if so, the details thereof; and
- (e) whether the targets related to automation of weather observation system across the country has been achieved and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

(a) to (e) A statement is laid on the Table of the House.

STATEMENT LAID ON THE TABLE OF THE LOK SABHA IN REPLYTO PARTS CA)TO CE)OF THE LOK SABHA STARREDQUESTION NO. *208 REGARDING 'MODERNISATION OF IMD FORANSWERON WEDNESDAY26TH DECEMBER, 2018.

- (a) No Madam.

Seasonal Rainfall forecast for the southwest monsoon season the average absolute error (difference between forecast and actual rainfall) during the last 12 years (2007 -2018) since 2007 was 5.95% of LPA compared to the average absolute error of 7.94% of LPA during the 12 years (1995 -2006)just prior to that period. This clearly indicates improvement made in the operational forecast system in the recent 12 year period comparedto earlier 12 years period. For preparing the long range forecast, currently, latest state of the art statistical model and Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS)dynamical models are used. In addition, the operational forecast for the monsoononset over Kerala has been correct (within the forecast limits) during 13 of the 14 years (2005-2018)since issuing of operational forecast for the event started in 2005.

Extended range prediction (for next 20 days), medium range prediction (for next 7-days)and Short range prediction (for next 3 days) have considerably improved so that service level capability of above/below normal rainfall probabilities during the monsoon season is built now. Central to this capacity enhancement is the introduction of two ensemble forecasting systems, viz., Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) and Unified Model EnsemblePrediction System (UMEPS),both with resolution of 12 km from 1 st June, 2018and products are usedfor subdivision-wise forecast up to 7 days and district level rainfall forecast up to 5 days for monsoonseason2018.

- (b) No Madam.
- (e-d) The modernization and enhancement of observatory network is an ongoing process. However, the following are the list of advancements brought in at service level following the modernization of IMD:
- i) Augmentation of Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) network by 6 Nos. so as to increase the severe weather 24X7 surveillance simultaneously with satellite monitoring
- ii) Introduction of advancedprediction models,decision support tools for agriculture, flood meteorological support, power-grid load dispatch management by Power System Organization Corporation(POSOCO)
- iii) Launching the establishment of DAMUs for expanding outreach of crop specific agro-meteorological advisories so asto planfarm level advisoriesappropriately
- iv) Integrating state level Automatic weather station (AWS) networks of Andhra Pradesh,Telangana,Karnataka with the IMDsnetwork of manual and AWSnetwork of IMD in regular weather monitoring activity so far
- (e) The network of manual and AWSsrequired for IMDs monitoring activity is always madefunctional and replacement from time to time is taken up as well. The AWSnetworks are established by the various state governments now across the country for agricultural insurance purposes with technical partnership of IMD. The state level AWS networks provide additional densification of weather stations so as to capture local scale weather changes.

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