Lok Sabha Question No. 2027 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-11-29
Subject: Measures for Recurring Disasters
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Francisco Cosme Sardinha

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 2027 TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2019

## MEASURES FOR RECURRING DISASTERS

## 2027.  SHRI COSME FRANCISCO CAITANO SARDINHA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  there  is  early  warning  or  preventive  measures  taken  for recurring disasters like cyclones and floods in Maharashtra, Goa, Bihar, Kerala, etc. despite an agency called Disaster Mitigation Authority;
- (b) if  so,  the  details  thereof  and  the  role  and  achievements  of  Disaster Mitigation Authority vis-a-vis increased frequency of recurrence of such disasters; and
- (c) if not, the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a)-(b) India  Meteorological Department (IMD) is well equipped to predict the genesis, track, landfall point & time and intensity of cyclones accurately before hitting the coast. IMD continuously expands its infrastructure for meteorological  observations,  data  exchange,  monitoring  &  analysis, forecasting and warning services using contemporary technology. IMD uses a suite of quality observations from Satellites, Radars, conventional &  automatic  weather  stations  and  buoys  for  monitoring  of  cyclones developing over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. IMD has one of the best  forecasting  systems  for  predicting  tropical  cyclones,  using  high resolution  weather  prediction  models  including  global,  regional  and cyclone specific models. The ensemble forecast systems introduced in the recent past provide probabilistic guidance for tracking and predicting intensity of cyclones and depressions. Regional models like atmospheric ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) have also been implemented to generate forecasts at very high resolution of 2km. IMD has a very effective Decision Support System for analysing various observations at a single platform and predicting track and intensity of cyclones as well as the adverse weather like heavy rain and wind. IMD also utilises storm surge and coastal inundation models and wave models output  from  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean  Information  Services
- (INCOIS), Hyderabad) for issuing storm surge warnings.

During  2018,  following  initiatives  were  taken  to  further  improve  the warning services of tropical cyclones: (i) Introduction of extended range outlook for cyclogenesis for next two weeks (ii) Increase in lead period of  cyclogenesis  forecast  from  72  hrs  to  120  hrs.  (iii)  Introduction  of quantitative  track  and  intensity  forecast  from  depression  stage  (iv) Fishermen warning for entire Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea instead of coastal areas only (v) Extension of lead period of fishermen warnings from 24 hrs to 120 hrs (vi) Conduct of fishermen workshops for all coastal areas  (vii)  Issue  of  joint  IMD-INCOIS  fishermen  warning  bulletins  (viii) Establishment of cyclone warning centre at Tiruvananthapuram for issue of  cyclones  related  warnings  and  bulletins  for  the  states  of  Kerala, Karnataka and Lakshadweep Islands.

Heavy  rainfall  events  lead  to  floods  over  different  river  basins  of  the country. River basin floods are dealt by the Central Water Commission (CWC), Ministry of Water Resources. In order to meet specific requirements of flood forecasting, which is provided by CWC, Ministry of Water Resources, IMD operates Flood Meteorological Offices (FMOs) at thirteen  locations  viz.,  Agra,  Ahmedabad,  Asansol,  Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jalpaiguri, Lucknow, New Delhi, Patna, Srinagar, Bengaluru  and  Chennai.  Apart  from  this,  IMD  also  supports  Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) by providing Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Damodar river basin areas for their flood forecasting activities. Central Water Commission is working in close association with IMD and State Governments for timely flood forecast whenever the river water  level  rises  above  warning  level.  FMOs  provide  meteorological support to the CWC for issuing flood warnings well in advance in respect of  the  43  rivers  of  India  covering  146  river  basins.  CWC  issues  flood forecasts 6 hrs. to 30 hrs. in advance for 176 stations using QPF received from FMOs of ESSO-IMD and in-situ hydrometeorological data.

IMD is dedicated for monitoring, detection and forecasting of weather and climate including early warning for severe weather events such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, extreme temperature etc. The weather forecasting and early warning systems in the country are comparable to most of the developed countries in the world. Efforts are continuously made to enhance the level of efficiency of the forecasting systems and to improve the skill of weather forecasts. During the past few years, IMD has been continuously improving weather prediction services in terms of accuracy, lead time and associated impact. The accuracy of the weather forecast  is  more  than  80%  qualitatively  and  65-70%  quantitatively  for various regions in the country. With the upgradation of observations and prediction  system,  noticeable  improvements  have  been  made  in  the recent past in the skill of prediction, especially with respect to heavy rainfall, cyclones and heatwave.

Disaster  Management  Division  of  Ministry  of  Home  Affairs  (MHA)  has operational Early Warning Dissemination System (EWDS) in the states of Odisha  and  Andhra  Pradesh.  Works  for  installation  of  EWDS  is  under tendering  process  in  the  states  of  West  Bengal,  Kerala,  Karnataka, Gujarat, Goa and Maharashtra.

- (c) Does not arise.

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