Lok Sabha Question No. 1149 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-06-28
Subject: Estimation of Monsoon Rainfall
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Chunni Lal Sahu

## GOVERNMENTOFINDIA LOKSABHA

## MINISTRYOFEARTHSCIENCES UNSTARREDQUESTIONNo. 1149 TO BEANSWEREDONFRIDAY,JUNE 28, 2019

## ESTIMATIONOFMONSOONRAINFALL

## 1149. SHRI CHUNNI LAL SAHU:

## Will the Minister of EARTHSCIENCESbe pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government has estimated the monsoon to be below average during the current year;
- monsoon
- (b) if so, the details thereof and the parts of the country where has been estimated to be below average during the month of July;
- (c) whether the Government has analysed the reason for the deficiency of rain, if so, the details thereof and the extent to which farmers are likely to be affected due to possibility of drought, State/UT-wise; and
- (d) the details of alternate source of water supply in case of monsoon failure?

## ANSWER MINISTER OFSTATEIN THEMINISTRYOFHEALTHAND FAMILYWELFARE (SHRIASHWINIKUMARCHOUBEY)

- (a) No Sir. Government has not estimated the monsoon to be below average during the current year. Both the first stage Long Range Forecast issued on 15th April and the second stage updated Long Range Forecast issued on 31 st May 2019 suggest that the monsoon seasonal rainfall 2019 for the country as whole is likely to be near Normal. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall 2019 is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%; the LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period being 89 cms. Copies of the press releases issued by IMD in this regard are attached as Annexure for ready reference.
- (b) The monthly rainfall for the country as whole is likely to be 95% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 9% during the month of July. The monthly forecast for July does not contain forecast for
- different parts of the country.
- (c) The current weak EINino conditions are likely to continue for some time and then to turn to neutral ENSOconditions during the second half of the monsoon season. Moreover, expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to compensate the negative aspects (if any) of the unfavourable EI Nino conditions, making the seasonal rainfall for the country to be near normal as predicted.
- (d) Does not arise.

<!-- image -->

## Annexure-/

PRESS RELEASE New Delhi, 1S th Aprii 2019

## ~*1{ifll{ Government of India

## 1&.t)~~1'14~1~4 ~. aV. -{. ~.) Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) ~ +fl6+i fCl~I'1~\{lll

## INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Long Range Forecast of the 2019 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

## Summary of the Forecast Assessment

- a} soumwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over tile country as D '. ... hole is likely to be near normal.
- b} Quantitatively, tile monsoon seasonal (June to Septernber) rainfall is likely to be 96O,{, of tile Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. Tile LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 'I ~l~d -2000 is 8S,ern.
- e) \<\ieak EI Nino conditions me likely to prevail during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.

The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the F'acific (EI Nif'io:'La Nina} 811dIndian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which me known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored. Overall, the country is expected to have \Nell distributed raintall scenario during the 20HI monsoon seC1S0n, which will be beneficial to tanners in the country during the ensuing kharif season.

U..,,10 ViiI! isstJe the second stage Monsoon-Zuls Forecast during the first week of June, 201£1.

~

<!-- image -->

## ~e<¥I(

## Government of India

fi;1

*11'1

ibn(;POi ~.

alr. t. ~.)

Ministry of Earth Sciences {MoES}

\lrof

+ft

e

Ii ~#11 "1

Fcr'1T1T

## INDIA METEOROLOGICALDEPARTMENT

Long Range Forecast Update for

The 2019 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

## Highlights

- .lRainfall over the country as a whole for the 2019 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be NORMAL {96~"o to 104~iO of long period average (LPA)).
- .lQuantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the LPAwith a model error of ±4%.
- . ~ Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 94% of LPA over North-West India, 100% of LPA over Central India, 97% of LPA over South Peninsula and 91% of LPA over North­ East India all with a model error of ±. 8 %.
- iThe monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 95% of its LPA during July and 99% of LPA during August both '.AI1th a model error of ± 9 %.
- ~ The current weak EI Nino conditions over Pacific are likely to continue during the monsoon season with some possibility of these conditions to turn to neutral ENSO conditions during the latter part of the monsoon season.

IMD will issue forecast for the rainfall during the second half of the season in the end of July 20'19.

## Annexure-II

PRESS RELEASE New Delhi, 31 st

May 2019