Lok Sabha Question No. 1397 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-12-19
Subject: Earthquake Forecasting
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: NEELAM SONKER, KAMLA DEVI PATLE

## GOVERNMENT OFINDIA

## MINISTRYOFEARTHSCIENCES LOKSABHA UNSTARRED QUESTIONNo. 1397

## To be answered OnWednesday, December 19, 2018

## Earthquake Forecasting

1397: SHRIMATINEELAMSONKER; SHRIMATIKAMLADEVIPAATLE

Will the Minister of EARTHSCIENCESbe pleased to state:

- a) whether the country is on the verge of an earthquake especially in the hilly & north-eastern areas of the country and if so, the details thereof,
- b) the number of laboratories working to study the earthquakes in the country State-wise;
- c) whether the Government has proposed to establish an electronic system to measure the intensity of earthquakes;
- d) if so, the details thereof and the manner in which new system is likely to give better earthquake forecast through implementation of this system and the time by which the said system is likely to be
5. established.
- e) whether our country is capable of forecasting the disasters like earthquake and if not, the reasons therefore and the concrete workplan in place to forecast such disasters; and
- f) the details of guidelines issued for the construction of houces especially in the earthquake prone areas of the country?

## ANSWER

MINISTERFORMINISTRYOFSCIENCEANDTECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRYOFEARTHSCIENCES

(Dr. HARSHVARDHAN)

- a) Based on past earthquakes data and seismotectonics studies the whole of Himalayan belt is considered as one of the most seismically active intra-continental regions of the world. This region has witnessed several moderate to great magnitude earthquakes and a few very great (M>8.0) earthquakes along its about 2400 km long belt. The seismicity in the region is mainly attributed to the Main Himalayan Thrust along which Indian plate under thrusts beneath the Himalayan wedge. The prominent earthquakes in this region are Shillong Plateau 1897(M:8.1), Kangra 1905 (M:7.8), Bihar­ Nepal Border 1934(M:8.3),Arunanchal-China border 1950(M:8.5).

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- b) National Centre for Seismology (NCS) maintains a country wide national seismological network, to detect and locate earthquakes occurring in and around the country. The ground motion data generated by the network is analysed and archived for further seismological related studies. A state-wise list of seismological observatories maintained by NCSis attached as Annex-i.
3. e-e) The earthquake magnitude is estimated from the ground motion data generated due to the concerned earthquake based on standard procedures. The intensity and magnitude of earthquake has an empirical relationship.

To date, there is no proven scientific technique available anywhere in the world to forecast the occurrence of earthquake with reasonable degree of accuracy with regard to space, time and magnitude. However, seismic hazard in the country has been assessedunder the auspices of Bureauof Indian Standard (BIS),and country is grouped into four seismic zonesviz. Zone-II, -III, -IVan,"'!V. Of these, Zone V is seismically the most prone region, while Zone II is the least [IS 1983 (Part 1):2016].

- f) Guidelines have been published by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), Building Materials & Technology Promotion Council (BMTPC) and Housing andUrban Development Corporation (HUDCO)etc. for the design and construction of earthquake resistant structures to minimizethe loss of life and damageto property caused by earthquakes. These guidelines are in wide circulation amongst the public and the administrative authorities responsible for the design and construction of earthquake resistant houses I structures in earthquake prone areas.

National Disaster ManagementAuthority (NDMA)under Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and other state Disaster Management Authorities, have also taken up various initiatives to educate and bring awareness amongst general on the general aspects of earthquakes, their impacts and measuresto mitigate losses caused by them.

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## Annex-1

## LIST OFSEISMOLOGICALOBSERVATORIESOPERATEDBY NCS(No. 115)

| State/UT          | Name of Station                         |
|-------------------|-----------------------------------------|
| Andaman & Nicobar | Campbell Bay                            |
|                   | Diglipur                                |
| Andhra            | Vijayawada                              |
| Pradesh           | Visakhapatnam                           |
| Arunachal         | Itanagar                                |
|                   | Pasighat                                |
|                   | Tawang                                  |
|                   | Ziro                                    |
| Pradesh           | Dhubri                                  |
|                   | Dibrugarh                               |
|                   | Guwahati                                |
|                   | Jorhat                                  |
|                   | Lekhapani                               |
|                   | Silchar                                 |
| Assam             | Tezpur                                  |
| Bihar             | Gaya Jamui                              |
| Chattisgarh       | Bilaspur Kanker Ayanagar Lodi Road, New |
| Goa               | Delhi Goa Bhavnagar                     |
| Gujarat           |                                         |
|                   | Bahadurgarh                             |
|                   | Bhuj                                    |
| Haryana           |                                         |
|                   | Ganaur                                  |
|                   | Jhajjar                                 |
|                   | Kundal                                  |

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|             | Kurukshetra         |
|-------------|---------------------|
|             | Palwal              |
|             | Rohtak              |
|             | Sohna               |
|             | Pataudi             |
| Himachal    | Bhakra              |
| Pradesh     | Dharamshala         |
|             | Kalpa               |
|             | Shimla              |
|             | Sundemagar          |
|             | Tissa               |
|             | Jammu               |
| Jammu &     | Srinagar            |
| Kashmir     | Hanley              |
|             | Alchi (Leh)         |
|             | Bokaro Thermal      |
| Jharkhand   |                     |
|             | Khunti              |
| Kamataka    | Mangalore           |
| Kerala      | Thiruvananthapur am |
| Lakshadweep | Minicoy             |
| Madhya      | Bhopal              |
| Pradesh     | Narmadanagar        |
|             | Guna                |
|             | Akola               |
|             | Karad               |
|             | Latur               |
| Maharashtra | Mumbai Nagpur       |
| Manipur     | Imphal              |
| Meghalaya   | Shillong            |
|             | Tura                |
| Mizoram     | Aizawal             |
|             | Saiha               |
| Nagaland    | Kohima              |
|             | Mokokchung          |
|             | Bhubaneswar         |
|             | Jharsuguda          |
| Odisha      |                     |
|             | Talwara             |
| Punjab      | Thein Dam           |
|             | Ajmer               |
| Rajasthan   | Jaisalmer           |

|               | Bikaner       |
|---------------|---------------|
|               | Sriganganagar |
|               | Udaipur       |
| Sikkim        | Gangtok       |
|               | Chennai       |
| Tamil Nadu    | Kodaikanal    |
|               | Salem         |
| Telangana     | Hyderabad     |
| Tripura       | Agartala      |
| Tripura       | Belonia       |
| U.T           | Chandigarh    |
|               | Allahabad     |
|               | Asaura        |
|               | Bahraich      |
|               | Banda         |
|               | Basti         |
|               | Bisrakh       |
|               | Farrukhabad   |
|               | Gorakhpur     |
|               | Jhansi        |
|               | Lucknow       |
|               | Meerut        |
|               | Thakurdwara   |
|               | Unchagaon     |
| Uttar Pradesh | Varanasi      |
|               | Agra          |
|               | Dehradun      |
|               | Joshimath     |
|               | Lohaghat      |
| Uttarakhand   | Pithoragarh   |
|               | Uttarkashi    |
| West Bengal   | Coochbehar    |
|               | Kolkata       |
|               | Jalpaiguri    |

i i

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