Lok Sabha Question No. 4079 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2021-03-19
Subject: Forecast regarding Monsoon Changes
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Sanjay Jaiswal

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO.4079

## TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, MARCH 19, 2021

## FORECAST REGARDING MONSOON CHANGES

## 4079.   DR. SANJAY JAISWAL :

## Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether Indian scientists have successfully developed various models to make precise forecast with regard to the arrival of monsoon and further changes in its movement generally in Asia and especially in India;
- (b) if so, the details thereof and the extent to which accurate forecasting of monsoon has been made;
- (c) the  modality  regarding  the  minimum  advance  period  of  forecast,  its  intensity  and expansion,  especially  to  provide  information  to  farmers  regarding  different  agro climatic areas;
- (d) the  number  of  research  institutes  engaged  in  research  activities  on  monsoon  in  the country; and
- (e) the project-wise total allocation of  funds  made  for undertaking research in this  field during the last five years?

## ANSWER MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a)-(b) Yes Sir. Under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology  (IITM),  Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean  Information  Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad and National  Centre for Medium  Range  Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA have built a state-of-the-art coupled ocean atmospheric model for (i) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16  days  to  one  season)  and  (ii)  improved  prediction  of  temperature,  rainfall  and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast  skill  gets  quantitatively  improved  further  for  operational  services  of  IMD. Forecasts, early warning of severe weather events and advisories are issued by IMD at national, regional and state levels. In order to provide early warning of severe weather events,  IMD  has  setup  a  network  of  state  meteorological  centres  to  have  better coordination with the state and district level agencies.

Improvement of weather forecasting services is a continuous process. Government has initiated a comprehensive modernization programme for IMD covering up-gradation of (i) observation systems (ii) advanced data assimilation tools (iii) advanced communication and IT infrastructure (iv) high performance computing systems and (v) intensive/sophisticated training of IMD personnel to facilitate the implementation of advanced global/regional/ meso-scale prediction models for improving the accuracy of weather  forecasts  in  all  temporal  and  spatial  scales  and  for  quick  dissemination  of weather forecast assessments/warnings to the users.

- (c) The onset of monsoon over Kerala is predicted about 5-10 days in advance. Subsequent arrival of monsoon over other states of the country is predicted 3-5 days in advance. This information along with the crop specific advisories are disseminated to farmers through different print/visual/Radio/ IT based media including short message service (SMS) and Interactive Voice Response Service (IVRS) facilitating for appropriate field level actions. Weather forecast based agrometeorological advisories are disseminated through Kisan portal  launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and also under public private partnership.

As per the recent National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) report, farming community of the country is using the Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) service products of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for critical farm operations Viz.  i)  Management  of  sowing  (Delayed  onset  of  rains);  ii)  Changing  crop  variety (Delay in rainfall); iii) Spraying Pesticides for disease control (occurrence of rainfall); iv) Managing Irrigation (Heavy rainfall Forecast).

- (d) The list of research Institutions in the country engaged in forecast/research on monsoon is given below.
- 1 India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi
- 2 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune
- 3 National centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NCMRWF), NOIDA
- 4 Indian Space Research Organisation-Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Tirupati.
- 5 Council  of Scientific &  Industrial Research-  Fourth  Paradigm  Institute, Bengaluru.
- 6 Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar
- 7 Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur
- 8 Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhi Nagar
- 9 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
- 10 Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi
- 11 Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
- 12 Andhra University
- 13 University of Kolkata
- 14 Cochin University for Science and Technology
- 15 Savithribhai Phule Pune University, Pune
- 16 Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune
- (e) To upgrade the forecasting capabilities, various programs are being implemented in IMD  under  the  umbrella  scheme 'Atmosphere  &  Climate  Research-Modelling Observing  Systems  &  Services  (ACROSS) '  of  the  MoES.  The  projects  under ACROSS are continuing programs from previous Plan periods encompassing various activities  in  an  integrated  manner  to  ensure  the  sustenance  &  augmentation  of observations & enhancement of facilities required for the weather forecasting services.

Allocation  of  funds  made  for  all  programs  under  ACROSS,  including  research initiatives for accuracy of monsoon forecast, along with expenditure incurred during last five years is tabulated below:

| Total allocation of funds under ACROSS   | Total allocation of funds under ACROSS   | Total allocation of funds under ACROSS   | Total allocation of funds under ACROSS   |
|------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------|
| Year                                     | Budget Estimates                         | Revised Estimates                        | Actual Expenditure                       |
| Year                                     | (Rs. in Crores)                          | (Rs. in Crores)                          | (Rs. in Crores)                          |
| 2015-16                                  | 158.18                                   | 174.45                                   | 166.68                                   |
| 2016-17                                  | 241.60                                   | 166.41                                   | 144.08                                   |
| 2017-18                                  | 188.75                                   | 149.15                                   | 134.09                                   |
| 2018-19                                  | 186.46                                   | 185.89                                   | 175.94                                   |
| 2019-20                                  | 207.17                                   | 224.73                                   | 206.04                                   |

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