Lok Sabha Question No. 1146 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-11-22
Subject: Technological Advancement in Cyclone Forecasting System
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Sudheer Gupta, Bidyut Baran Mahato, Prataprao  Jadhav, Gajanan Chandrakant Kirtikar, Sanjay Sadashivrao Mandlik

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1146

## TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2019

## TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT IN CYCLONE FORECASTING SYSTEM

1146.     SHRI SUDHEER GUPTA:

SHRI BIDYUT BARAN MAHATO:

SHRI PRATAPRAO JADHAV:

SHRI GAJANAN KIRTIKAR:

SHRI SANJAY SADASHIV RAO MANDLIK:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  number  of  cyclone  occurrences  is  increasing  and  the Government is unable to make correct forecast regarding cyclones;
- (b)
- if so, the details thereof and the reasons for the same;
- (c) whether  the  Government  has  taken  any  new  initiatives  to  bring  in technological advancement in cyclone forecasting system;
- (d) if  so,  the  details  thereof  including  international  cooperation/agreement signed in this regard; and
- (e) whether the Government proposes to implement projects to mitigate the risk of cyclones in coastal areas of the country so that the suffering of the people living in such areas may be ameliorated and if so, the details thereof  and  the  steps  taken  by  the  Government  to  develop  cyclone forecasting and management system in the country?

## ANSWER MINISTER FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYAND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) & (b) No Sir. No significant increasing trend is established in the frequency of Cyclone occurrences over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea when we consider the long term data. However, the recent 2 years, viz., 2018 & 2019  have  witnessed  above  normal  cyclogenesis  over  these  ocean basins.

The cyclone forecast accuracy has significantly improved in recent years as has been demonstrated during recent cyclones, which helped disaster managers  and  public  to  minimise  loss  of  lives  and  properties.  IMD's cyclone forecast and warning services have been appreciated worldwide including  United  Nations  Disaster  Risk  Reduction  (UNDRR)  in  recent years.

- (c) Yes Sir.  IMD  continuously  expands  its  infrastructure  for  meteorological observations,  data  exchange,  monitoring  &  analysis,  forecasting  and warning  services  using  latest  technology.  IMD  uses  a  suite  of  quality observations  from  Satellites,  Radars  and  conventional  &  automatic weather stations, buoys and ships for monitoring of cyclones developing over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

IMD  has  one  of  the  best  forecasting  systems  for  predicting  tropical cyclones using high resolution advanced mathematical models (including global,  regional  and  cyclone  specific  models)  for  predicting  tropical cyclones  crossing  both  west  and  east  coast  of  India  and  associated adverse weather over India.

IMD has a very effective Decision Support System for analysing various observations  at  a  single  platform  and  predicting  track  and  intensity  of cyclones as well as the adverse weather like heavy rain and wind. IMD also utilises storm surge and coastal inundation models and wave models output  from  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean  Information  Services (INCOIS),  Hyderabad  for  issuing  storm  surge  warning.  IMD  has  well defined Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for monitoring & forecasting the cyclones and for dissemination of warnings.

The Cyclone Warning Division (CWD) at India Meteorological Department (IMD),  New  Delhi  acts  as  a  Regional  Specialised  Meteorological  Centre for  monitoring,  predicting  and  issuing  warning  services  on  tropical cyclones  developing  over  north  Indian  Ocean.  IMD  has  three  Area Cyclone Warning Centres at Chennai, Kolkata & Mumbai and four Cyclone Warning Centres at Ahmedabad, Bhubaneswar, Thiruvananthapuram and Visakhapatnam  for  carrying  out  operational  warning  activities  for  their area  of  responsibility  and  to  carry  out  related  research  &  development activities. There is a Cyclone Warning Research Centre at IMD Chennai to carry out the research on tropical cyclones.

- (d) A  few  notable  initiatives  taken  up  in  recent  years  for  bilateral  and multilateral collaboration with Academic and R&D Institutes to improve cyclone warning services are listed below:
-  Bilateral agreement with National Oceanic Administration (NOAA), USA and UK Met. Office for improvement in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)  modeling  w.r.t.  global  forecast  system  and  Unified  Model, respectively. This collaboration also aims to improve and operationalise  the  ensemble  prediction  system  (EPS)  for  probabilistic forecast based on Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has adapted global models from USA and UK under the bilateral cooperation for forecasting of cyclones.
-  Similarly,  the  regional  models  like  Weather  Research  Forecast  (WRF) and Unified Model (Regional Model) have been implemented in IMD with this collaboration.
-  A  bilateral  collaboration  between  India  and  United  States  involving National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP), USA, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian National Centre for Information  Services  (INCOIS),  Indian  Institute  of  Technology  (IIT) Bhubaneswar  has  resulted  in  experimental  implementation  of  high resolution of Ocean Atmosphere Coupled Model viz. Hurricane Weather Research  &  Forecast  (HWRF)  Model  for  north  Indian  Ocean  with  a resolution of 2,6,18 km.
-  The collaborative research & development has been taken up between IMD, IIT Delhi and INCOIS for development of storm surge and coastal inundation model for operational forecasting by IMD.
-  IMD  and  Indian  Space  Research  Organisation  (ISRO)  continuously collaborate with each other to develop various satellite based observational  products  to  improve  the  early  warning  services.  It includes development of cyclone specific images and products, analytical tools like Advanced Dvorak Technique and RAPID software etc.
-  IMD is also leading WMO's Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)-Bay of Bengal (BOB). Regional Specialised Meteorological  Centre  (RSMC),  New  Delhi  is  the  regional  centre  to provide  daily  Regional  Severe  Weather  Guidance  to  the  10  member countries including Bangladesh, India, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan,  Sri  Lanka,  Maldives,  Myanmar  and  Thailand.  Under  this project 5 days forecast is issued by RSMC, New Delhi daily for heavy rainfall, strong wind, storm surge, high waves in addition to cyclones
-  World  Meteorological  Organisation  (WMO)  has  recognised  Cyclone Warning Division (CWD) of IMD as one of the six Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMC) -Tropical Cyclones to provide tropical cyclone  advisories  to  13  WMO/  Economic  and  Social  Commission  for Asia and  the Pacific  (ESCAP)  Panel  Member  countries  including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Yemen,  Saudi  Arabia,  United  Arab  Emirates,  Qatar  and  Iran  for  the cyclones developing over the North Indian Ocean.
-  IMD,  also  acts  as  Tropical  Cyclone  Advisory  Centre  for  International Civil  Aviation  and  provides  cyclone  forecast to all the Meteorological Watch Offices in the Asia Pacific Region as well as in the Middle East for issue of significant meteorological information as per the requirement of International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).
- (e) National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) in coordination with IMD has  taken  up  the  National  Cyclone  Risk  Mitigation  Project  (NCRMP)  to enhance  cyclone  mitigation  related  work  for  the  coastal  areas  of  the country.

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