Lok Sabha Question No. 3559 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-01-02
Subject: Back Series Data
Ministry: STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION
Asked by: RAVNEET SINGH, JAYADEV GALLA

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

## LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 3559

TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, THE 2 ND  JANUARY, 2019

## BACK SERIES DATA

3559. SHRI RAVNEET SINGH: SHRI JAYADEV GALLA:

Will the Minister of STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION be pleased to state:

- (a)  whether  there  is  any  discrepancy  between  the  back  series  data released by the CSO and that of the National Statistical Commission and if so, the details thereof;
- (b)  the  details  of  the  Gross  Fixed  Capital  Formation  of  the  previous Government of  fifteen  years  and  the  current  Government,  under  the  old (2004-05) and new (2011-12) series; and
- (c)  whether the back series data incorporated any new methodology and if so the details thereof ?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION  AND  MINISTER  OF  STATE  IN  THE  MINISTRY  OF PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS (SHRI VIJAY GOEL)

(a):  The  National  Statistical  Commission  (NSC)  constituted  a  Committee on Real Sector. This Committee also looked at linking old and new GDP series. The Committee adopted the technique of 'productionshift approach'  to  back  cast  the  new  series  estimates.  In  this  approach  the difference between the new and the old series of estimates of the base year  is  distributed  across  the  past  years  for  which  back  series  is estimated  using  an  econometric  model  but  not  based  on  using  new methodology and data sources. The alternative suggested by Committee on  Real  Sector  Statistics  was  examined  by  Advisory  Committee  on

National  Accounts  Statistics  (ACNAS)  which  felt  that  it  would  not  be appropriate to have a single uniform approach across all sectors. Based on the results of the various alternatives and iterations, a detailed approach was adopted by this ministry, in line with the methodology of 2011-12 Base Year Series and the UN System of National Account (SNA)-2008 guidelines.

(b): The details of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation under the old (200405) and new (2011-12) series is given in the table below:

## Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF)               (Rs. in Crore)

|       |         | 2004-05 Series    | 2004-05 Series     | 2011-12 Series    | 2011-12 Series    |
|-------|---------|-------------------|--------------------|-------------------|-------------------|
| S No. | Years   | at current Prices | at 2004- 05 prices | at current Prices | at 2011-12 prices |
| 1     | 1996-97 | 328046            | 465355             | -                 | -                 |
| 2     | 1997-98 | 372401            | 506706             | -                 | -                 |
| 3     | 1998-99 | 427069            | 555913             | -                 | -                 |
| 4     | 1999-00 | 484666            | 599973             | -                 | -                 |
| 5     | 2000-01 | 495196            | 591610             | -                 | -                 |
| 6     | 2001-02 | 590240            | 682143             | -                 | -                 |
| 7     | 2002-03 | 601120            | 679170             | -                 | -                 |
| 8     | 2003-04 | 697478            | 750940             | -                 | -                 |
| 9     | 2004-05 | 931028            | 931028             | 978463            | 1405052           |
| 10    | 2005-06 | 1120292           | 1081792            | 1189715           | 1636060           |
| 11    | 2006-07 | 1343775           | 1231266            | 1428913           | 1863048           |
| 12    | 2007-08 | 1641673           | 1430764            | 1754352           | 2167264           |
| 13    | 2008-09 | 1821099           | 1480943            | 1914401           | 2236602           |
| 14    | 2009-10 | 2055772           | 1594474            | 2161499           | 2408303           |
| 15    | 2010-11 | 2407070           | 1769793            | 2536936           | 2674328           |
| 16    | 2011-12 | 2861064           | 1986645            | 2997733           | 2997733           |
| 17    | 2012-13 | -                 | -                  | 3324973           | 3145793           |
| 18    | 2013-14 | -                 | -                  | 3515621           | 3194924           |
| 19    | 2014-15 | -                 | -                  | 3750392           | 3278096           |
| 20    | 2015-16 | -                 | -                  | 3918237           | 3448193           |
| 21    | 2016-17 | -                 | -                  | 4352498           | 3797875           |
| 22    | 2017-18 | -                 | -                  | 4778894           | 4087557           |

(c): CSO, based on available data, has adopted methodology of revised base 2011-12 Series in preparation of Back-Series. The improvements in the compilation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with Base 2011-12 over the earlier series (Base 2004-05) are included in the Press Release of 28 th  November 2018 and the major ones are summarised below:

-  The 2004-05 Series followed SNA 1968 and SNA 1993 whereas 2011-12 Series follows SNA  2008,  which  are  the latest guidelines of UN on National Accounting concepts.
-  In the new series, estimation has been done at basic prices as per SNA 2008 in place of estimation at factor cost followed till 2004-05 series.
-  In the current series, Institution-wise compilation of aggregates has been done instead of aggregate approach.
-  Compilation of Financial Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) was done in 2011-12 Series using the reference rate method rather than averaging credits and deposits.
-  In the new series, sector specific Consumer Price Index (CPI) of  sectors  of  health,  education,  transport  &  communication etc. have been used  as compared to CPI  Industrial workers (IW) & Agricultural Labourers (AL) used in the earlier series.

The Back-Series methodology was presented before the Advisory Committee on National Account Statistics (ACNAS), which is a specialized body comprising of experts from various institutions in  the  related  field. After the approval of the methodology by the committee, the results were released and have been uploaded on the website of this Ministry.

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