Lok Sabha Question No. 2880 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2021-03-12
Subject: Study on Cyclones
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Jayant Sinha

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 2880

TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, MARCH 12, 2021

## STUDY ON CYCLONES

## 2880.   SHRI JAYANT SINHA:

## Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the number of cyclones occurred in the country and the corresponding number of human lives lost due to cyclones and floods during the last five years;
- (b) whether any research by experts has been/is being carried out to study the increasing incidence of cyclones and flooding in the country, and if so, the details and outcome thereof; and
- (c) the details of global best practices that the Government plans to introduce to mitigate such disasters?

## ANSWER MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) The  details  of  the  number  of  cyclones  occurred  in  the  country  and  the  corresponding number of human lives lost due to cyclones and associated floods during the last five years are given in the following table. The number of deaths presented is with respect to media reports.
- (b) Yes, Sir. There are several scientific investigations carried out related to the frequency & impacts of Cyclones over the Indian region. The outcome is summarized below.

|   Year |   Total number of cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal &Arabian Sea |   Number of Cyclones which made landfall over the Indian coast | Number of deaths reported   |
|--------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|
|   2020 |                                                                    05 |                                                             04 | 113                         |
|   2019 |                                                                    08 |                                                             02 | 105                         |
|   2018 |                                                                    07 |                                                             03 | 131                         |
|   2017 |                                                                    03 |                                                             00 | *                           |
|   2016 |                                                                    04 |                                                             01 | 06                          |

Studies show a decreasing trend in the frequency of formation of Cyclonic Storms over the Bay of Bengal and an increasing trend over the Arabian Sea, based on the data during 1965- 2020.

However, the coastal vulnerability to the categories of Extremely Severe Cyclones' or more continues  over  the  Bay  of  Bengal  region,  as  there  is  no  significant  trend  in  the frequency of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storms (ESCS). On the other hand, the increase in frequency over the Arabian Sea has not posed a corresponding increase in the coastal vulnerability along the west coast since most of such Cyclones forming over the Arabian Sea  are  making  landfall  over  the  coasts  of  Oman,  Yemen  etc  and  hence  the  threat  to Gujarat & Maharashtra coasts remains same.

On  an  average,  out  of  5  Cyclones  developing  over  the  North  Indian  Ocean  (NIO) comprising Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, about 3 to 4 of them make landfall causing loss of life and property. Low lying coastal belts of West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu & Puducherry are more prone to the impact of these systems. The number of deaths due to cyclones has decreased significantly, as a result of the improvement in the early warning skill by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of  Earth  Sciences  (MoES)  and  effective  mitigation  measures  and  response  actions  by National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). Still there is huge loss to property.

It may be noted that, greater vulnerability to tropical cyclone damage all over the world is mainly  due  to  socio-economic  and  demographic  factors.  Improvements  in  warning systems and preparedness in disaster management remain critical to mitigate the loss of lives  and,  to  some  extent,  loss  of  property.  Some  of  the  studies  have  highlighted  the importance of land-use planning, development of coastal districts and insurance measures, in addition to development of a vigilant disaster management system.

- (c) Based on the Global best practices, the risk management of the Cyclones depends on several factors including (i) hazard & vulnerability analysis, (ii) preparedness & planning, (iii) early warning services and (iv) prevention and mitigation.

The 'early warning' is a major component related to MoES/IMD targeting improved skill in monitoring and prediction and effective warning products generation. It is important to continuously upgrade all the components of early warning based on latest technology for effective management of Tropical Cyclones. IMD has taken a number of steps in recent years  to  continuously  enhance  the  capabilities  in  monitoring,  numerical  modeling  and forecasting  of  the  hazards  associated  with  cyclones.  Thus  IMD  has  demonstrated  its capability to provide early warning for Cyclones with high precision.

Further,  the  Government  of  India  has  initiated  the  National  Cyclone  Risk  Mitigation Project  (NCRMP)  with  a  view  to  address  cyclone  risks  in  the  country.  The  overall objective of the Project is to undertake suitable structural and non-structural measures to mitigate the effects of cyclones in the coastal states and UTs of India. NDMA under the aegis of Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is implementing the Project in coordination with participating State Governments and the National Institute for Disaster Management (NIDM).The Project has identified 13 cyclone prone States and Union Territories (UTs), with varying levels of vulnerability.

The main objective of the NCRMP is to reduce vulnerability of coastal communities to cyclone and other hydro meteorological hazards through;

- Improved early warning dissemination systems
- Enhanced capacity of local communities to respond to disasters
- Improved access to emergency shelter, evacuation, and protection against wind storms, flooding and storm surge in high areas
- Strengthening DRM capacity at central, state and local levels in order to enable mainstreaming  of  risk  mitigation  measures  into  the  overall  development agenda

******