Lok Sabha Question No. 1207 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-06-28
Subject: Population Growth
Ministry: HEALTH AND FAMILY WELFARE
Asked by: Uday Pratap Singh, Annasaheb Shankar Jolle, Saikia Dilip, Ramesh Chander Kaushik

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND FAMILY WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND FAMILY WELFARE

## LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 1207 TO BE ANSWERED ON 28 TH JUNE, 2019

## POPULATION GROWTH

## 1207. SHRI UDAY PRATAP SINGH:

SHRI ANNASAHEB SHANKAR JOLLE:

SHRI DILIP SAIKIA:

SHRI RAMESH CHANDER KAUSHIK:

Will the Minister of HEALTH AND FAMILY WELFARE be pleased to state:

- (a) whether population is increasing all over the country, if so, the details thereof nd the asons therefor, State/UT - wiseincluding Mangaldai in Assam during the last five years;
- (b)  whether  the  Government  proposes to  formulate  any  scheme  to  enact  a  uniform law  by implementing two child norm to control population and if so, the details thereof;
- (c)  whether  the  Government  also proposes  to  fix  any  accountability  clause in  the  said law/scheme and set any time limit for its implementation, if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (d) whether Government proposes schemes for people planning to have no kids and ad opt the deprived children, if so, the details thereof; and
- (e)  whether  the  Government  consider population  growth  as  a  serious  challenge and  has conducted  any  survey  or constituted  any  working  group  in  this regard  and  if  so,  the  details thereof and the out come thereof?

## ANSWER THE MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND FAMILY WELFARE (SHRI ASHWINI KUMAR CHOUBEY)

- ( a) : Yes; Details  of  decadal  population  growth  in  country,  State/UT - wise  is  placed  at Annexure I; 5- yearly data on population growth is not available. Population of Mangaldai increased  from  23,920  in  Census  2001  to  25,989  persons  in  Census  2011. Population  has  a tendency  to  increase  beyond  achieving  replacement  level  fertility because  of  population momentum, wherein population continues to increase because of a large number of people in reproductive age group .
- ( b) : No .
- (c): Does not arise .
- (d): No .

(e): The Government has not conducted any special survey to understand population growth For  getting  projected  population  for  the  years  2011  to  2035,  the  National  Commissio Population has constituted   a Technical Group which has met thrice, last one being on 3 rd May, 2019. Highlights of Minutes of last Meeting is placed in Annexure II .

## State/UT wise Decadal growth rate

| SNo.   | Name of State/UT          |   Percentage decadal growth (2001 - 2011) |
|--------|---------------------------|-------------------------------------------|
| 1      | Andaman & Nicobar Islands |                                      6.68 |
| 2      | Andhra Pradesh *          |                                     11.1  |
| 3      | Arunachal Pradesh         |                                     25.92 |
| 4      | Assam                     |                                     16.93 |
| 5      | Bihar                     |                                     25.07 |
| 6      | Chandigarh                |                                     17.1  |
| 7      | Chhattisgarh              |                                     22.59 |
| 8      | Dadra & Nagar Haveli      |                                     55.5  |
| 9      | Daman & Diu               |                                     53.54 |
| 10     | Goa                       |                                      8.17 |
| 11     | Gujarat                   |                                     19.17 |
| 12     | Haryana                   |                                     19.9  |
| 13     | Himachal Pradesh          |                                     12.81 |
| 14     | Jammu & Kashmir           |                                     23.71 |
| 15     | Jharkhand                 |                                     22.34 |
| 16     | Karnataka                 |                                     15.67 |
| 17     | Kerala                    |                                      4.86 |
| 18     | Lakshadweep               |                                      6.23 |
| 19     | Madhya Pradesh            |                                     20.3  |
| 20     | Maharashtra               |                                     15.99 |
| 21     | Manipur                   |                                     18.65 |
| 22     | Meghalaya                 |                                     27.82 |
| 23     | Mizoram                   |                                     22.78 |
| 24     | Nagaland                  |                                      0.47 |
| 25     | NCT of Delhi              |                                     20.96 |
| 26     | Orissa                    |                                     13.97 |
| 27     | Puducherry                |                                     27.72 |
| 28     | Punjab                    |                                     13.73 |
| 29     | Rajasthan                 |                                     21.44 |
| 30     | Sikkim                    |                                     12.36 |
| 31     | Tamil Nadu                |                                     15.6  |
| 32     | Tripura                   |                                     14.75 |
| 33     | Uttar Pradesh             |                                     20.09 |
| 34     | Uttarakhand               |                                     19.17 |
| 35     | West Bengal               |                                     13.93 |
|        | INDIA                     |                                     17.64 |

## Highlights of Minutes of Meeting of Technical Group on Population Projection 3 rd May, 2019

## Key Highlights :

- The Meeting was inaugurated by Shri. Manoj Jhalani, A ddit onal Secretary &M ission D irector (National H ealth M ission ) and chaired by Shri. Vivek Joshi, Registrar G eneral & C ensusC ommissioner of I ndia (RGI&CCI). Following key issues were discussed in the Meeting:

## Methods adopted:

- o Component method was used for 21 bigger states with population of 10 million o more, whose data on fertility and mortality are available.
- o Mathematical Methods were applied for smaller states and UTs .
- o Population of the seven North - Eastern states taken together (excluding Assam) has been projected using the component method.
- o TFR for future years has been projected using the Gompertz method.
- o Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB) assumed to be constant during the projection period 2011- 36.
- o Li fe Expectancy at Birth has been interpolated using UN's West Model Life Tables.
- o Census 2001 based Net Migration Rates (NMR) adjusted by the survival ratio for 0- 9 years for the period 1991 - 2001 assumed to be constant during the projection period.
- o Internati onal migration is assumed to be 'Nil'.

## Sources of data:

- o Base population -Census of India, 2011
- o Fertility -Time series TFR data based on Sample Registration System (SRS) from 1991- 2011 and ASFR data for three years 2009 - 2011.
- o Mortality -Life Tables availabl e from the SRS.
- o Migration -Census 2001 migration rates used provisionally as Census 2011 based rates are yet to be released.
- o Sex Ratio at Birth -SRS 2009- 11.

## Key Results:

## A. Estimated Demographic Indicators during the projection period, 2011 - 35

| Indicator                | Year     |   Estimate | Year     |   Estimate | % Growth   |
|--------------------------|----------|------------|----------|------------|------------|
| Population (in millions) | 2011     |     1211   | 2036     |    1536    | +26.8%     |
| Sex Ratio at Birth       | 2011     |      943   | 2036     |     948    | -          |
| % urban population       | 2011     |       31   | 2036     |      39    | +25.8%     |
| Crude Birth Rate         | 2011- 15 |       19.8 | 2031- 35 |      12    | - 39.4%    |
| Crude Death Rate         | 2011- 15 |        8   | 2031- 35 |       7.9  | - 1.3%     |
| Infant Mortality Rate    | 2011- 15 |       43   | 2031- 35 |      30    | - 30.2%    |
| Total Fertillity Rate    | 2011- 15 |        2.4 | 2031- 35 |       1.65 | - 31.3%    |

## B. Population Age - structural changes during the population period, 2011 - 35

| Indicator                        | Estimate (%)   |   Estimate (%) |
|----------------------------------|----------------|----------------|
| % population below age 15 years  | 30.9           |           17.9 |
| % population of age -15 59 years | 60.5           |           66.7 |
| % population age 60 years and    | above8.6       |           15.4 |
| % population age 05 to 14 years  | 21.0           |           13   |
| % population age 25 - 29 years   | 19.0           |           15   |

The data and methodology used in the Draft Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections and projections figures were discussed at length by the members of the Grou