Lok Sabha Question No. 606 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-02-06
Subject: Cyclone Prediction
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: S.P. MUDDAHANUMEGOWDA, RAJESHBHAI NARANBHAI CHUDASAMA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No.  606 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2019

## CYCLONE PREDICTION

606.       SHRI S. P. MUDDAHANUME GOWDA:
2. SHRI RAJESHBHAI CHUDASAMA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether in recent past, there was another cyclone other than Ockhi which originated from the vicinity of Sri Lanka and moved towards the coast or to north through sea;
- (b)
- if so, the details thereof;
- (c) whether  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  was  able  to  predict cyclones,  one  or  two  days  before  it  hit  the  coast,if  so,  the  details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor; and
- (d) the steps the Ministry has adopted to predict such cyclones early and warn all concerned?

## ANSWER MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) & (b) No Madam. There was no cyclone other than Ockhi which originated from  the  vicinity  of  Sri  Lanka  and  moved  towards  coast  or  to  north through sea.
- (c) Yes, IMD is well equipped to predict the genesis, track, landfall point & time and intensity of cyclones accurately before hitting the coast.
- (d) IMD continuously expands its infrastructure for meteorological observations, data exchange, monitoring & analysis, forecasting and warning services using contemporary technology. IMD uses a suite of quality observations from Satellites, Radars, conventional & automatic weather stations and buoys for monitoring of cyclones developing over the  Bay  of  Bengal  and  Arabian  Sea.  IMD  has  one  of  the  best forecasting systems  for predicting tropical cyclones, using high resolution  weather  prediction  models  including  global,  regional  and cyclone specific models.

The ensemble forecast systems introduced in the recent past provide probabilistic guidance for track and intensity of cyclones and depressions. Regional models like Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) have also been implemented to generate forecasts at very high resolution of 2km. IMD is also planning to make the ocean atmosphere  coupled  Hurricane  Weather  Research  &  Forecast  model operational which has the potential to predict intensity more accurately.

IMD  has  a  very  effective  Decision  Support  System  for  analysing various  observations  at  a  single  platform  and  predicting  track  and intensity of cyclones as well as the adverse weather like heavy rain and wind. IMD also utilises storm surge and coastal inundation models and  wave  models  output  from  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean Information  Services  (INCOIS),  Hyderabad)  for  issuing  storm  surge warning. IMD has defined Standard Operating System for monitoring & forecasting the cyclones and issue of warning services.

During  2018,  following  initiatives  were  taken  to  further  improve  the warning services of tropical cyclones:

- (i) Introduction of extended range outlook for cyclogenesis for next two weeks
- (ii) Increase in lead period of cyclogenesis forecast from 72 hrs to 120 hrs.
- (iii) Introduction  of  quantitative  track  and  intensity  forecast  from depression stage
- (iv) Fishermen  warning  for  entire  Bay  of  Bengal  and  Arabian  Sea instead of coastal areas only
- (v) Extension of lead period of fishermen warnings from 24 hrs to 120 hrs
- (vi) Conduct of fishermen workshops for all coastal areas
- (vii) Issue of joint IMD-INCOIS fishermen warning bulletins
- (viii) Establishment of cyclone warning centre at Tiruvananthapuram for  issue  of  cyclones  related  warnings  and  bulletins  for  the states of Kerala, Karnataka and Lakshadweep Islands.

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