Lok Sabha Question No. 1577 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-12-19
Subject: Seasonal Outlook for Temperature
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: ASHOK SHANKARRAO CHAVAN, T. RADHAKRISHNAN, VIJAY KUMAR S.R., KUNWAR HARIBANSH SINGH, S. RAJENDRAN, SUDHEER GUPTA

## MINISTRY OF EARTHSCIENCES

## GOVERNMENTOFINDIA LOKSABHA

## UNSTARREDQUESTIONNo. 1577

To be answered OnWednesday, December 19, 2018

## Seasonal Outlook for Temperature

1577: SHRI ASHOK SHANKARRAOCHAVAN;

SHRI T. RADHAKRISHNAN;

SHRI S.R VIJAYAKUMAR;

SHRI KUNWAR HARIBANSH SINGH;

SHRI S. RAJENDRAN

SHRI SUDHEERGUPTA

## Will the Minister of EARTHSCIENCESbe pleased to state:

- (a) whether the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued seasonai outlook for the Temperature during the cold weather season for the forthcoming winter season;
- (b) if so, whether foreign agencies have also issued during the cold wather season
- for the fortcoming winter seasons;
- (c) if so, the details thereof, State/UT-wise; and
- (d) whether average error in IMD's winter forcast has come down each of the last
- three years and if so the details therof; and
- (e) the steps taken/being taken by the Government for accurate weather prediction
- forecast in country?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER FORMINISTRY OF SCIENCEAND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTHSCIENCES , (Dr. HARSHVARDHAN)

- a) IMD has issued temperature outlook for Cold Weather (December 2018 to February 2019) on 3 rd December, 2018 (Press release is attached as Annexure-I) The country experiences cold waves (days with abnormallv cooler temperatures) primarily during December to February. The outlooks are based on predictions using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed under the monsoon mission. The forecast outlook consists of forecast for subdivision scale minimum temperatures for the cold weather
2. season.

The forecast suggests that above normal seasonal minimum temperatures (>0.5· C) are most likely over most of the subdivisions of the country except Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the north, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast, Odisha in the east and Chhattisgarh in Central India, where normal (between 0.5·C & -0.5·C) seasonal minimum temperatures are most likely to prevail.

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In addition, IMDalso issue weekly cold wave alerts and warnings based on the same model. The forecasts are made available to disaster managers and public through State Meteorological offices and also through IMD, Delhi website (www.imd.gov.in)

- b) No,Madam
- c) Doesnot arise
- d) The performance of the winter forcast is being monitored.
- e) Coupled forecasting system (CFS) model improvement efforts are continued based on the performance creation and verification statistics on monthly and seasonal basis by the R&D group of India Insitiute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM, Pune) and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF, Noida).

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PRES S RELEASE New Delhi, 3rd December. 2018

## "q I(ij ;e ~CfiI~ Government of India

## ~~f4~I'1.htl~4 ('q+1. alt. f:. tttr.) Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) 'ql(~ '4i~1Of ~ INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

## Seasonal Outlook for the Temperatures during December 2018 to February, 2019

## Highlights

- }> Above normal subdivision averaged seasonal minimum temperatures· are likety during the upcoming cold wea1her season (December 2018 to February 2019) over all the meteorological subdivisions of the country.
- )-Below normal Cold Wave (CW) conditions are likely over core CW zone of the country.

## 1. Background

Since 2016, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has been issuing seasonal forecast outlooks for subdivision scale temperatures over the country for both ho1and cold weather seasons based 00 predictions from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS}. MMFCS has now been used to prepare seasonal outlook for the subdivision scale averaged minimum temperatures during the cold weather season of December 2018February 2019 season. The forecast was prepared using 4O-ens~mbtemember forecasts

## Forecast for the December 2018to February 2019 Season Minimum Temperatures

Fig.1 depicts the forecasted distribution 01 the sub-dvislon averaged seasonal minimum temperature anomalies (departures from the long term (1981~2010} normal) over India for December 2018 to February, 2019. The forecast suggests that above normal seasonal minimum temperatures (>0.5" C) are most likely over most of the subdivisions oUhe country except Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Utlarakhand in the north, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast. ocsna in the east and Chhattisgarh in Central India, where normal (between OSC & -a.s°C) seasonal minimum temperatures are most likely t<J prevail.

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Assessment suggests that only about 39% p'obability of above normalllinimum temperatu-es in he core cold wave (CW) zone durhg the t\olJember 2018 January 2019 seasot, (Fig.2). Core CW zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakharn, Delhi, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan Una' Pradesh, Gujarat Madhya Pradesh, C~,hattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Eengal, Odsha atd Telangana and met sLbdivisiors of Marathwada, Vidharbha Saurashtra and Madhya Ma1arashtra.

## 2, ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean

Currently Equatorial sea surface tem~eratures (SSTs) are abcve average across mcst of the Pacific Ocean, The latest forecasts from global cl mate medels indicate strong probabil~y of ooak EI Nino cordilirns to develop during the winter season,

## 3. ExtendedRangeForecast Services

IMD also provides extended range forecasts (7day averaged brecasls fo~ he next bur weeks) of rnaxnun and mnimum temperatures over the GJuntry updated every week. This is based on Ihe Mutti­ m:)(lel ensemble d}narrical E>:tEflded Ran£e Forecasting Syatem (urre'ltly operational at IMD, New DeihL The forecests are ava Ieole through IMe, Delhi website (voW'll. md.go" .in),

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Fig.1. Minimum Temperature Anomaly forecast for December 2018 to February 2019\_

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Fig.. 2. Climatological probability distribution of grid point maximum temperatures during December 2018 to February 2019over Core Coldwave Zone (CCl) is shown along with forecast probabilitydistributionof the same for December 2018 to February 2019.

Fig.1. Minimum Temperature Anomaly forecast for December 2018 to February 2019.

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Fig.2. Climatological probability distribution of grid point maximum temperatures during December 2018 to February 2019 over Core Cold wave Zone (CCZ) is shown along with forecast probabilitydistribution of the same for December 2018 to February 2019\_

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