Lok Sabha Question No. 1935 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-11-29
Subject: Rainfall Prediction
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Shrikant Eknath Shinde, Sambhajirao Mane Dhairyasheel, Sujay Radhakrishna Vikhepatil

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1935

## TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2019

## RAINFALL PREDICTION

1935.   DR. SHRIKANT EKNATH SHINDE: SHRI DHAIRYASHEEL SAMBHAJIRAO MANE: DR. SUJAY RADHAKRISHNA VIKHE PATIL:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the details of the current mechanism being followed to predict the rainfall;
- (b) whether the Government is considering to take any steps to devise an intelligent prediction system with modern analytic tools by using local weather information for rainfall prediction;
- (c)
- if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (d) the  details  of  current  flood  warning  system  being  used  in  the country; and
- (e) whether the Government is taking any steps to improve the system, if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues four types of forecasts during  the  monsoon  season  i.e.,  seasonal  forecast  (for  the  whole season), extended range forecast (up to four weeks), short-medium range forecast (up to 7 days) and nowcast (up to 3 hrs). Under the National Monsoon Mission, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)  has implemented two state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems for short range to medium, extended range and seasonal forecasts. All these  initiatives  have  helped  to  improve  the  skill  of  monsoon forecasts over the country. IMD started using the Monsoon Mission dynamical  model  to  prepare  operational  seasonal  forecast  since 2017.

An improved suite of prediction models has already been implemented operationally at India Meteorological Department (IMD) for enhanced short range weather forecasting through assimilation of all available Indian and global satellite data in real time.

Since December 2016 IMD is using the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Unified model run at National Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF) operationally every day to generate deterministic forecasts at 12 km horizontal resolution in the short to medium  range  (Up  to 10 days). The  GFS  assimilates global conventional atmospheric data as well as the data from satellites and weather radars. There also exists a high resolution meso-scale model with 3 km resolution to provide location specific forecast.

In addition, a high resolution (12 km grid scale) state of the art Global Ensemble  Prediction System  (GEPS) namely  Global  Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) and Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System (UMEPS) was commissioned on 01 June 2018 for generating operational probabilistic weather forecasts for 10 days. The GEPS has enhanced the weather information being provided by the current models by quantifying the uncertainties in the weather forecasts.

- (b) & (c)   The above mentioned forecast systems will be improved further for better accuracy with the enhancement in observational systems and advancement in numerical modeling. However, the Artificial Intelligence  (AI)  methods  will  be  extensively  used  to  improve weather forecasts.
- (d) & (e) IMD has a shared mandate with Central Water Commission (CWC) for flood forecasting.

Heavy rainfall events may lead to floods over different river basins of the  country.  River  basin  floods  are  dealt  by  the  CWC.  Flood Meteorological  Offices  (FMOs)  operated  by  the  IMD  at  thirteen locations viz., Agra, Ahmedabad, Asansol, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Srinagar, Bengaluru and Chennai provide meteorological support to the CWC for  issuing  flood  warnings  in  respect  of  the  43  rivers  of  India covering 146 river basins. CWC issues flood forecasts for about 6 hrs.  to  30  hrs.  in  advance  for  176  stations  using  Quantitative

Hyderabad, Jalpaiguri, Lucknow, New  Delhi, Patna, Precipitation Forecast (QPF) received from FMOs and in-situ hydrometeorological data.

Apart from this, IMD also supports Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) by providing Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Damodar river basin areas for their flood forecasting activities.

Central Water Commission is working in close association with IMD and State Governments for timely flood forecast whenever the river water level rises above warning level. To meet the requirement of State Governments, IMD Officers invariably attend all the meetings called by the State Governments for reviewing the preparedness on

In  order  to  cater  to  the  services  of  hydro-meteorological  events occurring  in  short  duration  of  time,  IMD  is  in  the  process  of implementing  a  Flash  Flood  Guidance  System  (FFGS)  in  the  near future by which a diagnostic value within a watershed required to produce flooding at the outlet of the catchment can be estimated, to floods by various agencies. support the flood warning services.

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