Lok Sabha Question No. 3259 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-07-12
Subject: Deficiency in Monsoon Rainfall
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: M.K. Vishnu Prasad

- (a)

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 3259 TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, JULY 12, 2019

## DEFFICIENCY IN MONSOON RAINFALL

## 3259. DR. M.K. VISHNU PRASAD:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a)
- (b)
- whether there is deficiency in monsoon rainfall in the country;
- if so, the details thereof and the extent of such deficiency;
- (c) the States/UTs  which  are  likely  to monsoon rainfall;
- experience  deficiency  in
- (d) whether El Nino factor has any impact on the monsoon rainfall; if so the details thereof; and
- (e) the mechanism put in place to predict the current monsoon rainfall along with cyclone and other natural calamities in the near future?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- & (b)   No  Sir.  Government  has  not  estimated  the  monsoon  to  be  below average during the current year. Both the first stage Long Range Forecast issued on 15 th  April and the second stage updated Long Range Forecast issued on 31 st  May 2019 suggest that the monsoon seasonal rainfall 2019 for the country as whole is likely to be near Normal.  Quantitatively,  the  monsoon  seasonal  rainfall  2019  is likely  to  be  96%  of  the  Long  Period  Average  (LPA)  with  a  model error of ± 5%; the LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period being 89 cms. Copy of the highlights of the forecast is attached herewith as Annexure-I.
- (c) Deficiency of rain has not been predicted for southwest monsoon season  2019  by  IMD.  However,  delay  in  monsoon  is  onset  over Kerala and its progress further has caused deficiency of rainfall in the month of June. State-wise rainfall statistics for June 2019 is given in Annexure-II.
- (d) EL-Nino is one of the factors which can impact monsoon rainfall. The  current  weak  El  Nino  conditions  are  likely  to  continue  for some time and then to turn to neutral ENSO conditions during the second half of the monsoon season. Moreover, expected positive Indian  Ocean  Dipole  conditions  are  likely  to  compensate  the negative  aspects  (if  any)  of  the  unfavourable  El  Nino  conditions, making the seasonal rainfall for the country to be near normal as predicted.
- (e) India Meteorological Department (IMD) operates dedicated weather  and  climate  monitoring,  detection  and  warning  services useful  for  various  sectors  of  economy.  The  weather  forecasting systems  in  the  country  are  at  par  to  most  of  the  developed countries in the world.

IMD is fully capable for early prediction and issuance of forecasts and warnings of extreme weather phenomena like heavy Rainfall, tropical  Cyclones  etc.  so  as  to  enable  disaster  managers  to minimise  loss of life  and  damage  to  property.IMD has well established  infrastructure  for  meteorological  observations,  data exchange, monitoring & analysis, forecasting and warning services using contemporary digital computerized technology. IMD uses  a  suite  of  quality  observations  from  Satellites,  Radars  and conventional & automatic weather stations for monitoring weather developments. It includes INSAT 3D, 3DR and SCATSAT satellites, Doppler  Weather  Radars  (DWRs)  along  the  coast,  automated weather stations (AWS), automatic rain gauges (ARGs), meteorological buoys and ships.

Under  National  Monsoon  Mission,  MoES  has  implemented  two state  of  the  art  dynamical  prediction  systems  for  short,  medium &extended  range  forecasts  and  seasonal  forecasts.  All  these initiatives have helped to improve the accuracy of forecast.

The  recent upgradation  of  the  High  Performance  Computing Systems with Mihir and Pratyush commissioned in the recent past has  helped  in  the  implementation  of  the  following  numerical models which would further refine weather forecasting.

-  Global  Ensemble  Forecasting  System  (GEFS)  at  a  very  high  a resolution  of  12  km  to  provide  forecast  upto  7  days  (from  1st June, 2018).
-  The Unified Model (UM) and Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System  (UMEPS)  to  provide  forecast  upto  7  days  with  12  km resolution (from 1st June, 2018).

In  addition  to  this,  IMD  also  runs  cyclone  specific  multi-nested Hurricane  Weather  Research  &  Forecast  (HWRF)  Model  with  a resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km for cyclone track and intensity prediction.

Upgradation of the forecasting system is a continuous process in IMD with respect to weather monitoring and analysis, forecasting and dissemination and warning services along with high-end computing networking infrastructure including effective system .

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## STATE-WISE RAINFALL (MM) DISTRIBUTION

## Annexure-II

| S.                      | STATES                    | ERIOD:                  | 01.06.2019              | TO                      | 30.06.2019              |
|-------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------|
| NO.                     |                           | ACTUAL                  | NORMAL                  | % DEP.                  | CAT.                    |
| EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA | EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA   | EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA | EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA | EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA | EAST & NORTH EAST INDIA |
| 1                       | ARUNACHAL PRADESH         | 310.3                   | 490.7                   | -37%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 2                       | ASSAM                     | 314.2                   | 418.3                   | -25%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 3                       | MEGHALAYA                 | 615.7                   | 792.8                   | -22%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 4                       | NAGALAND                  | 190.7                   | 282.8                   | -33%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 5                       | MANIPUR                   | 155.1                   | 425.3                   | -64%                    | LARGE DEFICIENT         |
| 6                       | MIZORAM                   | 273.9                   | 435.5                   | -37%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 7                       | TRIPURA                   | 316.7                   | 460.1                   | -31%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 8                       | SIKKIM                    | 486.0                   | 425.4                   | 14%                     | NORMAL                  |
| 9                       | WEST BENGAL               | 162.4                   | 316.7                   | -49%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 10                      | JHARKHAND                 | 89.6                    | 199.9                   | -55%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 11                      | BIHAR                     | 98.7                    | 167.7                   | -41%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| NORTH WEST INDIA        | NORTH WEST INDIA          | NORTH WEST INDIA        | NORTH WEST INDIA        | NORTH WEST INDIA        | NORTH WEST INDIA        |
| 1                       | UTTAR PRADESH             | 37.3                    | 94.8                    | -61%                    | LARGE DEFICIENT         |
| 2                       | UTTARAKHAND               | 84.3                    | 177.8                   | -53%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 3                       | HARYANA                   | 18.9                    | 47.5                    | -60%                    | LARGE DEFICIENT         |
| 4                       | CHANDIGARH (UT)           | 24.8                    | 130.2                   | -81%                    | LARGE DEFICIENT         |
| 5                       | DELHI                     | 6.6                     | 62.1                    | -89%                    | LARGE DEFICIENT         |
| 6                       | PUNJAB                    | 25.0                    | 50.4                    | -50%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 7                       | HIMACHAL PRADESH          | 54.2                    | 100.5                   | -46%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 8                       | JAMMU & KASHMIR           | 79.2                    | 73.9                    | 7%                      | NORMAL                  |
| 9                       | RAJASTHAN                 | 45.7                    | 50.2                    | -9%                     | NORMAL                  |
| CENTRAL INDIA           | CENTRAL INDIA             | CENTRAL INDIA           | CENTRAL INDIA           | CENTRAL INDIA           | CENTRAL INDIA           |
| 1                       | ODISHA                    | 146.4                   | 217.7                   | -33%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 2                       | MADHYA PRADESH            | 70.4                    | 120.9                   | -42%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 3                       | GUJARAT                   | 84.8                    | 113.6                   | -25%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 4                       | DADRA & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) | 364.7                   | 349.1                   | 4%                      | NORMAL                  |
| 5                       | DAMAN & DIU (UT)          | 236.8                   | 280.6                   | -16%                    | NORMAL                  |
| 6                       | GOA                       | 781.7                   | 898.3                   | -13%                    | NORMAL                  |
| 7                       | MAHARASHTRA               | 155.3                   | 207.6                   | -25%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 8                       | CHHATISGARH               | 129.4                   | 193.5                   | -33%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| SOUTH PENINSULA         | SOUTH PENINSULA           | SOUTH PENINSULA         | SOUTH PENINSULA         | SOUTH PENINSULA         | SOUTH PENINSULA         |
| 1                       | A & N ISLAND (UT)         | 662.2                   | 413.7                   | 60%                     | LARGE EXCESS            |
| 2                       | ANDHRA PRADESH            | 61.1                    | 91.0                    | -33%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 3                       | TELANGANA                 | 86.3                    | 132.0                   | -35%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 4                       | TAMILNADU                 | 33.6                    | 54.1                    | -38%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 5                       | PUDUCHERRY (UT)           | 30.5                    | 73.0                    | -58%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 6                       | KARNATAKA                 | 152.8                   | 199.3                   | -23%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 7                       | KERALA                    | 358.5                   | 643.0                   | -44%                    | DEFICIENT               |
| 8                       | LAKSHADWEEP (UT)          | 243.5                   | 330.3                   | -26%                    | DEFICIENT               |

| COUNTRY AS AWHOLE   | 112.1   | 166.9   | -33%   |
|---------------------|---------|---------|--------|

CATEGORYWISE DISTRIBUTION OF NO. OF STATES

|                                 | PERIOD:       | 01.06.2019    | TO            | 30.06.2019    |
|---------------------------------|---------------|---------------|---------------|---------------|
| CATEGORY                        | NO. OF STATES | NO. OF STATES | NO. OF STATES | NO. OF STATES |
| LARGE EXCESS (+60% or more)     | 1             | 1             | 1             | 1             |
| EXCESS (+20% to +59%)           | 0             | 0             | 0             | 0             |
| NORMAL(+19% to -19%)            |               |               |               |               |
| DEFICIENT ((-20% to -59%)       | 6             | 6             | 6             | 6             |
| LARGE DEFICIENT (-60% to - 99%) | 24 5          | 24 5          | 24 5          | 24 5          |