Lok Sabha Question No. 4377 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-07-19
Subject: Delayed Pattern of Arrival of Monsoon
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: Vellalath Kochukrishnan Nair. Sreekandan, M. K. Raghavan

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 4377

TO BE ANSWERED ON FRIDAY, JULY 19, 2019

## DELAYED PATTERN OF ARRIVAL OF MONSOON

4377.    SHRI V.K. SREEKANDAN: SHRI M.K. RAGHAVAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the Government has conducted any study on the delayed pattern of  arrival  of  monsoon  in  the  country  for  several  years  now,  if  so,  the details thereof;
- (b) whether the progress of the monsoon during the current monsoon season has not been accurately predicted by the India Meteorological Department, if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor;
- (c) whether any advance scientific upgrades and equipments have been made for progressive predictions and  identifying the reasons  for  delayed occurrences of monsoon in the country, if so, the details thereof; and
- (d) the  other  steps  being  taken  to  ensure  accurate  prediction  of  monsoon progress?

## ANSWER MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) Yes Sir. The arrival (onset) of monsoon over the country is always being monitored.  There  is  no  such  pattern  obtained  on  the  late  arrival  of monsoon.  However,  this  year  monsoon  onset  over  Kerala  had  been delayed,  but  it  was  predicted  by  the  India  Meteorological  Department (IMD). The dates of onset of monsoon over Kerala for the last 10 years are given in table below :
- (b) No Sir. As per IMD's forecast, onset of monsoon over Kerala for this year was likely to be delayed and was expected on 6 th  June with a model error of ± 4 days. The onset of monsoon over Kerala has occurred on 8 th  June 2019  within  the  forecast  limit,  against  the  normal  date  of  1 st   June. Afterwards also there had been delay in the further progress of monsoon in the country due to weakening of monsoon current, in view of formation of a cyclonic Storm 'VAYU' in the Arabian Sea.

|   Year | Date of onset over Kerala   |
|--------|-----------------------------|
|   2009 | 23 May                      |
|   2010 | 31 May                      |
|   2011 | 29 May                      |
|   2012 | 5 June                      |
|   2013 | 1 June                      |
|   2014 | 6 June                      |
|   2015 | 5 June                      |
|   2016 | 8 June                      |
|   2017 | 30 May                      |
|   2018 | 29 May                      |

The progress of southwest monsoon till 15 th  July 2019 is shown in Fig-1 and the Press Release, issued on 15 th  May 2019, regarding the forecasting of  date  of  onset  of  Southwest  Monsoon  2019  over  Kerala  is  given  in Annexure.

- (c) & (d)  India  Meteorological  Department  has  the  state  of  the  art  prediction models and other tools for monitoring and predicting various characteristics of monsoon. Under National Monsoon Mission, Ministry of Earth  Sciences  (MoES)  has  implemented  two  state  of  the  art  dynamical prediction  systems  for  short,  medium  &  extended  range  forecasts  and seasonal  forecasts.  All  these  initiatives  have  helped  to  improve  the accuracy of forecast. An improved suite of prediction models have already been implemented operationally at IMD for enhanced short range forecast through assimilation of all available Indian and global satellite data in real time.  Even  though  there  is  a  method  for  predicting  monsoon  onset  over Kerala, the progress of monsoon  across the country is made  by considering  spatial  continuity  of  rainfall  pattern  and  satellite  imageries and  advance  of  monsoon  over  the  country  is  predicted  based  on  above mentioned models.

Fig-1

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## Annexure