Lok Sabha Question No. 184 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-07-18
Subject: Prediction of Monsoon
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: PRATHAP SIMHA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 184 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, JULY 18, 2018

## PREDICTION OF MONSOON

## 184.  SHRI PRATHAP SIMHA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether his Ministry has taken any important initiatives for considerable progress in prediction of monsoon and its variability in different time scales;
- (b) if  so,  the  details  thereof  and  whether  the  Gramin  Krishi  Mausam Seva  (GKMS)  of  IMD  has  been  successful  in  providing  the  crop specific advisories to the farmers and the number of farmers in the country receiving the Agromet Advisories through SMS; and
- whether IMD is planning to establish District Agromet Units (DAMUs) at Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) at Coastal Districts in the country to  generate  granular  Agromet  Advisories  and  reach  out  to  all  the farmers  to  save  the  crops  from  weather  aberration  and  ultimately
- (c) increase the productivity of the crops; and
- (d) if  so,  the  number  of  Districts  covered  in  the  country  for  providing Agromet Advisories at present, State-wise?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) Yes Madam.  The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has taken lot of important  initiatives  for  considerable  progress  in  prediction  of monsoon and its variability in different time scales. One of the most important achievements was the successful implementation of the 'Monsoon  Mission'  to  improve  monsoon  prediction  &  weather forecasts.  The  first  phase  of  the  Monsoon  Mission  was  completed successfully in 2017, with lot of achievements, including setting up of very advanced dynamical prediction systems for Seasonal prediction; Extended range prediction (for next 20 days) and Short range  prediction  (up  to  8  days).  The  seasonal  prediction  skill  of Indian monsoon using dynamic models has also improved considerably. In addition to above, IMD uses state of art statistical models developed through in-house research and development work for Long Range Forecast of Monsoon

MoES has introduced two ensemble forecasting systems, viz., Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) and Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System (UMEPS), both with resolution of 12 km from 1 st June,  2018.    These  models  are  being  used  for  subdivision-wise forecast up to 7 days and district level rainfall forecast up to 5 days for monsoon season 2018.

- (b) The  Gramin  Krishi  Mausam  Seva  (GKMS)  of  India  Meteorological Department  (IMD)  is  rendered  twice  a  week  in  collaboration  with State  Agricultural  Universities  (SAUs)  and  Institutions  of  Indian Council  of  Agricultural  Research  (ICAR).  Under  this,  district  level weather forecasts for next 5-days in respect of Rainfall, maximum temperature,  minimum  temperature,  wind  speed,  wind  direction, relative  humidity  and  clouds,  weekly  cumulative  rainfall  forecast, and crop specific advisories are provided to farmers. The GKMS of IMD has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the  farmers  through  different  print/visual/Radio/  IT  based  media including short message  service (SMS) and Interactive Voice Response  Service  (IVRS)  facilitating  for appropriate  field level actions. At present 39 million farmers registered on MKisan portal are receiving the Agromet Advisories through SMS.
- (c)-(d)  Yes Madam. 530 District Agromet Units (DAMUs) will be established in  the  Krishi  Vigyan  Kendras  (KVKs)  in  phase-wise  manner  to implement block level AAS in collaboration with KVKs of ICAR. At present, 130 Agromet Field Units under GKMS will issue block level Agromet  Advisories  for  the  district  where  the  AMFU  is  located. Hence, all the blocks will be covered under GKMS. Details of DAMUs to be established during 2017-20 are mentioned below:

|   S.No | Year    |   No. of DAMUs to be established |
|--------|---------|----------------------------------|
|      1 | 2017-18 |                              130 |
|      2 | 2018-19 |                              400 |
|      3 | 2019-20 |                              130 |

This includes all the coastal districts in the country. No of districts covered in the country for providing Agromet Advisories is mentioned in Annexure I.

## Annexure I

## Statewise number of districts for providing Agromet Advisories

| S.No State             |   No of Districts Covered |
|------------------------|---------------------------|
| 1 Andhra Pradesh       |                        13 |
| 2 Telangana            |                         9 |
| 3 Arunachal Pradesh    |                        16 |
| 4 Assam                |                        27 |
| 5 Bihar                |                        38 |
| 6 Chhattisgarh         |                        27 |
| 7 Gujarat              |                        26 |
| 8 Haryana              |                        21 |
| 9 Himachal Pradesh     |                        12 |
| 10 Jammu and Kashmir   |                        21 |
| 11 Jharkhand           |                        24 |
| 12 Karnataka           |                        30 |
| 13 Kerala              |                        14 |
| 14 Madhya Pradesh      |                        50 |
| 15 Maharashtra         |                        33 |
| 16 Manipur             |                         9 |
| 17 Meghalaya           |                        11 |
| 18 Mizoram             |                         8 |
| 19 Nagaland            |                        11 |
| 20 Odisha              |                        30 |
| 21 Punjab              |                        22 |
| 22 Rajasthan           |                        33 |
| 23 Tamil Nadu          |                        32 |
| 24 Tripura             |                         8 |
| 25 Uttar Pradesh       |                        75 |
| 26 Uttarakhand         |                        13 |
| 27 West Bengal         |                        18 |
| 28 Andaman and Nicobar |                         3 |
| 29 Delhi               |                         1 |
| 30 Puducherry          |                         2 |
| Total                  |                       637 |