Lok Sabha Question No. 567 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2019-02-06
Subject: Prediction of Rainfall
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: FEROZE VARUN GANDHI

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No.  567

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 2019

## PREDICTION OF RAINFALL

567 SHRI FEROZE VARUN GANDHI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the details of the current mechanism being followed to predict the rainfall;
- (b) whether the  Ministry is considering to take any steps to devise an intelligent  prediction  system  with  modern  analytic  tools  by  using local weather information for rainfall prediction;
- (c)
- if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons therefor;
- (d) the  details  of  current  flood  warning  system  being  used  in country; and
- (e) whether the Government is taking any steps to improve the system, if so, the details thereof and if not, the reasons thereof?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## (DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a) to (c) India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues three types of forecasts during the monsoon season i.e., seasonal forecast (for the whole  season),  extended  range  forecast  (10-  30  days),  short  to medium  range  forecast  (0-10  days).  Under  the  National  Monsoon Mission, MoES  has  implemented  two  state-of-the-art  dynamical prediction  systems for  short  range,  medium  range,  extended  range and seasonal forecasts. All these initiatives have helped to improve the skill of monsoon rainfall forecasts over the country.

An improved suite of prediction models has already been implemented operationally at India Meteorological Department (IMD) for  enhanced  short  range  weather  forecasting  through  assimilation of all available Indian and global satellite data in real time.

Since December 2016 India Meteorological Department is using the Global  Forecast  System  (GFS)  and  Unified  Model  (UM)  to  generate deterministic forecasts at 12 km horizontal resolution in the short to medium range (Up to 10 days).  The  GFS  and  UM  assimilate  global conventional  atmospheric  data  as  well  as  data  from  the  satellites scale  model  with  3  km  resolution  to  provide  location  specific and  Doppler  Weather  Radars.  There  is  also  high  resolution  mesoforecast.

In  addition,  a  high  resolution  (12  km  grid  scale)  state  of  the  art Global  Ensemble  Prediction  System  (EPS)  namely  Global  Ensemble Forecasting  System  (GEFS)  and  Unified  Model  Ensemble Prediction System (UMEPS) were commissioned on 01 June 2018 for generating operational probabilistic weather forecasts for 10 days for intensity probabilistic  heavy  rainfall  forecast  at  district  level.  Research  & Development groups at IITM, Pune and NCMRWF, Noida are already making efforts to improve the system on continuous basis based on the performance evaluation

- (d) & (e)       Heavy rainfall events lead to floods over different river basins of the country. River basin floods are dealt by the Central Water Commission  (CWC),  Ministry  of  Water  Resources.  In  order  to  meet specific  requirements  of  flood  forecasting,  which  is  provided  by CWC, Ministry of Water Resources, India Meteorological Department (IMD)  operates  Flood  Meteorological  Offices  (FMOs)  at  thirteen locations viz., Agra, Ahmedabad, Asansol, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jalpaiguri, Lucknow, New Delhi, Patna, Srinagar, Bengaluru and Chennai. Apart from this, IMD also supports Damodar Valley  Corporation  (DVC)  by  providing  Quantitative  Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for Damodar  river basin areas for their flood forecasting activities. Central Water Commission is working in close association with  IMD  and  State  Governments  for timely flood forecast whenever the river water level rises above warning level.

Flood  Meteorological  Offices  (FMO)  operated  by  the  IMD  provide meteorological  support  to  the  CWC  for  issuing  flood  warnings  in respect  of  the  43  rivers  of  India  covering  146  river  basins.  CWC issues flood forecasts 6 hrs. to 30 hrs. in advance for 176 stations using  QPF  received  from  FMOs  of  ESSO-IMD  and  in-situ  hydrometeorological data.

At present Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecast for QPF at river basin level is generated at 9 km grid scale. Research efforts are currently made to asses 3 km scale WRF based rainfall at sub basin level on experimental mode.