Lok Sabha Question No. 3124 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-12-31
Subject: Global Oil Demand
Ministry: PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS
Asked by: SHRIKANT EKNATH SHINDE, KUNWAR PUSHPENDRA SINGH CHANDEL, VINAYAK BHAURAO RAUT, DHARMENDRA YADAV, Shrirang Appa Barne

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 3124

## TO BE ANSWERED ON 31st DECEMBER, 2018

## GLOBAL OIL DEMAND

3124. DR. SHRIKANT  EKNATH  SHINDE: SHRI KUNWAR  PUSHPENDRA  SINGH  CHANDEL: SHRI VINAYAK  BHAURAO  RAUT: SHRI DHARMENDRA YADAV: SHRI SHRIRANG APPA BARNE:

Will the Minister of PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS  be pleased to state:

- ( a) whether as per the report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), India will be the centre of global oil demand growth until 2030 and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether the country expects to double gasoline and diesel consumption by 2030 even as it aspires to sell only electric vehicles in 2030 and if so, the facts thereof and the efforts made by the Government in this regard;
- ( c) whether India's oil consumption grew at fastest pace during the last two years, if so, the details thereof and the total oil consumption expanded during the said period along with any assessment made by the Government to determine/ascertain the reasons for growth in consumption of oil; and
- (d) the steps taken/being taken by the Government to meet the growing demand of oil indigenously?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS (SHRI DHARMENDRA PRADHAN)

- (a) As  per  International  Energy  Agency's  World  Energy  Outlook  2018,  the  growth  of  oil consumption under the 'new policy scenario' for the major economies of the world and India during the period 2016 to 2030 is given below:

|                    | Oil demand (Mtoe)   | Oil demand (Mtoe)   | Oil demand (Mtoe)   |
|--------------------|---------------------|---------------------|---------------------|
|                    | Year                | Year                | CAGR (%)            |
| Country            | 2016                | 2030                | 2016-30             |
| China              | 551                 | 719                 | 1.92                |
| USA                | 787                 | 745                 | -0.39               |
| India              | 217                 | 350                 | 3.47                |
| Russian Federation | 149                 | 154                 | 0.24                |
| Japan              | 177                 | 129                 | -2.23               |
| World              | 4364                | 4830                | 0.73                |

Mtoe: Million tonnes of oil equivalent

(b) and (c):

As per the report of the Working Group constituted by MoP&NG on enhancing refining capacity by 2040, the demand of petrol and diesel under the 'Trend Scenario' is as under:

(Million Metric Tonne)

|                | Petrol   | Petrol   | Diesel   | Diesel   |
|----------------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
| Scenario       | 2017-18  | 2029-30  | 2017-18  | 2029-30  |
| Trend Scenario | 26.2     | 49.0     | 81.1     | 163.0    |

The year -wise growth in oil consumption in the country is given below:

| Years    |   In Mtoe |
|----------|-----------|
| 2015     |     197.8 |
| 2016     |     217.1 |
| 2017 (P) |     222.1 |

Source: BP Statistical Review 2018

The growth rate of oil consumption in 2017 over 2015 grew on compound average basis of 6%. The major  reasons  for  growth  in  consumption  of  oil  in  the  country  include,  inter-alia,  increasing economic  and  manufacturing  activities,  thrust  on  infrastructure  spending,  growth  in  disposal incomes leading to higher purchase of automobiles and mechanization of agriculture.

(d) Government has taken several steps to enhance exploration & production of oil and gas in the country  which  include  inter-alia  Hydrocarbon  Exploration  Licensing  Policy  (HELP)  and  Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP), Discovered Small Field (DSF) Policy, gas pricing reforms with premium  for  difficult  areas,  grant  of  marketing  freedom  for  gas  produced  from  difficult  areas, National Seismic Programme for unappraised areas, National Data Repository, easing out rigidities in the existing Production Sharing Contracts and transparent and clear policy for grant of extension under  the  PSC  regime,  promoting  and  incentivizing  Enhanced  Recovery  Methods  to  improve recovery factor of existing hydrocarbons reserves for augmenting domestic production of oil and gas  and  permitting  exploration  and  exploitation  of  unconventional  hydrocarbons  such  as  Shale oil/gas, Coal Bed Methane (CBM) etc.

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