Lok Sabha Question No. 5170 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2017-04-05
Subject: Calculation of GDP Growth
Ministry: STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION
Asked by: SULTAN  AHMED

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

## LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 5170

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, THE 5 th  APRIL, 2017

## CALCULATION OF GDP GROWTH

## 5170.  SHRI SULTAN AHMED:

Will the Minister of STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION be pleased to state:

- (a) the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country during each of the  last  five  years,  year-wise  and  quarter-wise  and  the  GDP growth rates of the country during the said period, year-wise and quarter-wise;
- (b) the sector-wise growth in GDP during the said period, year-wise and quarter-wise;
- (c) the  statistical/econometric  model  used  for  calculation  of  GDP growth of the said period;
- (d) whether the GDP calculation method has been changed  and if so, whether the GDP calculated through the said method  is  not comparable  with  the previous calculation; and
- (e) if  so,  the  reasons  for  changing  the  method  in  view  of  its incomparability with the GDP of last decade?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION (SHRI D. V. SADANANDA GOWDA)

- (a): The details  for  the  last  five  years  of  year-wise  Gross  Domestic Product (GDP) estimates, year-wise GDP  growth  rates and quarter-wise GDP estimates and growth rates, available up to the third quarter of the year 2016-17, are given in the statement at Annexure-I.
- (b): GDP  is  estimated  by  combining  the  value  of  production  in  all sectors of the economy.  Contribution of different sectors in GDP is  measured  in  terms  of  their  Gross  Value  Added  (GVA).  The
- details for the last five years of sector-wise growth rates in GVA, year-wise  and  quarter-wise,  available  up  to  the  third  quarter  of the year 2016-17, are given in the statement at Annexure-II.
- (c):   GDP growth rate of a particular year is calculated as percentage change in the GDP of that year over the GDP of the previous year. GDP  growth during a quarter of a year is calculated as percentage change in the GDP of that quarter over the GDP of the same quarter of previous year.
- (d): The Central Statistics Office released the new series of national accounts  with  base  year  2011-12  in  January  2015.  The  new series is compliant with the latest United Nations guidelines in System of National Accounts- 2008.  The new series represents a structural  break  from  the  old  series,  mainly  due  to  availability and incorporation, of new source of information for the corporate sector,  better  estimates  for  the  unorganised  sector  from  the 2010-11  National  Sample  Survey  on  unincorporated  enterprises and data on sales and service taxes. The new series, therefore, is not comparable with the old series with base year 2004-05.
- (e): The base year revision exercises are undertaken, as per internationally accepted practice, to capture the changing structure of the economy. This ensures capturing latest information and hence accurately reflects the current economic situation  in  the  country.  GDP  based  on  old  series  would  not reflect the current economic situation correctly.

*****

Annexure-I

Statement referred to in reply to part (a) of the Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 5170 for 05.04.2017

GDP at current prices and percentage growth rates of GDP at constant (2011-12) prices

Rs. in crore

| Period      | Item            |     2012-13 |     2013-14 |     2014-15 |     2015-16 | 2016-17   |
|-------------|-----------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-------------|-----------|
| Annual      | GDP             | 9.94664e+06 | 1.12366e+07 | 1.24337e+07 | 1.36753e+07 | 15251028  |
| Annual      | Growth rate (%) | 5.5         | 6.5         | 7.2         | 7.9         | 7.1       |
| April- June | GDP             | 2.29385e+06 | 2.55081e+06 | 2.91045e+06 | 3.21482e+06 | 3561090   |
|             | Growth rate (%) | 4.9         | 6.5         | 7.7         | 7.8         | 7.2       |
| July-       | GDP             | 2.41732e+06 | 2.75892e+06 | 3.03918e+06 | 3.32438e+06 | 3717007   |
| September   | Growth rate (%) | 7.6         | 7.5         | 8.3         | 8.4         | 7.4       |
| October-    | GDP             | 2.52296e+06 | 2.88482e+06 | 3.16963e+06 | 3.44678e+06 | 3813735   |
| December    | Growth rate (%) | 5.2         | 6.7         | 6           | 6.9         | 7.0       |
| January-    | GDP             | 2.7125e+06  | 3.04208e+06 | 3.31449e+06 | 3.68935e+06 |           |
| March       | Growth rate (%) | 4.4         | 5.6         | 6.8         | 8.6         |           |

## Statement referred to in reply to part (b) of the Lok Sabha Unstarred Question No. 5170 for 05.04.2017

## Year-wise, quarter-wise and sector-wise percentage growth rates in Gross Value Added at constant (2011-12) prices

| S. No.        | Sector                                                                       | Annual   | April- June   | July- September   | October- December   | January -March   |
|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------|-------------------|---------------------|------------------|
| Year: 2012-13 | Year: 2012-13                                                                |          |               |                   |                     |                  |
| 1.            | Agriculture, forestry &fishing                                               | 1.5      | 1.5           | 2.0               | 1.0                 | 1.8              |
| 2.            | Mining &quarrying                                                            | -0.6     | 2.4           | 0.1               | -1.4                | -3.2             |
| 3.            | Manufacturing                                                                | 5.9      | 0.3           | 12.6              | 7.6                 | 3.9              |
| 4.            | Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services                      | 2.5      | 4.4           | 1.7               | 2.9                 | 1.3              |
| 5.            | Construction                                                                 | 0.6      | 2.1           | -2.6              | -0.9                | 3.7              |
| 6.            | Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting | 9.7      | 11.2          | 10.8              | 9.1                 | 7.7              |
| 7.            | Financial, real estate & professional services                               | 9.7      | 9.3           | 10.0              | 10.4                | 9.1              |
| 8.            | Public administration, defence and other Services                            | 4.3      | 7.1           | 5.7               | 2.0                 | 2.6              |
| 9.            | GVA (Sum of 1 to 8 above)                                                    | 5.4      | 5.4           | 7.1               | 4.9                 | 4.6              |

| S. No.        | Sector                                                                       | Annual   | April- June   | July- September   | October- December   | January -March   |
|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------|-------------------|---------------------|------------------|
| Year: 2013-14 | Year: 2013-14                                                                |          |               |                   |                     |                  |
| 1.            | Agriculture, forestry &fishing                                               | 5.6      | 3.9           | 5.4               | 6.6                 | 5.8              |
| 2.            | Mining &quarrying                                                            | 3.1      | -1.2          | 2.9               | 2.2                 | 8.4              |
| 3.            | Manufacturing                                                                | 5.1      | 6.9           | 3.9               | 5.8                 | 3.9              |
| 4.            | Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services                      | 4.0      | 2.1           | 5.8               | 3.2                 | 5.2              |
| 5.            | Construction                                                                 | 3.0      | 5.0           | 5.5               | 2.7                 | -0.7             |
| 6.            | Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting | 6.8      | 4.0           | 6.7               | 9.4                 | 6.9              |
| 7.            | Financial, real estate & professional services                               | 11.0     | 11.6          | 15.5              | 8.4                 | 7.8              |
| 8.            | Public administration, defence and other Services                            | 3.8      | 7.8           | 3.5               | 4.2                 | 0.5              |
| 9.            | GVA (Sum of 1 to 8 above)                                                    | 6.2      | 6.4           | 7.3               | 6.5                 | 4.8              |

| S. No.        | Sector                                 | Annual        | April- June   | July- September   | October- December   | January -March   |
|---------------|----------------------------------------|---------------|---------------|-------------------|---------------------|------------------|
| Year: 2014-15 | Year: 2014-15                          | Year: 2014-15 | Year: 2014-15 | Year: 2014-15     | Year: 2014-15       | Year: 2014-15    |
| 1.            | Agriculture, forestry &fishing         | -0.3          | 2.2           | 3.5               | -3.1                | -1.4             |
| 2.            | Mining &quarrying                      | 14.7          | 22.0          | 9.5               | 12.1                | 14.4             |
| 3.            | Manufacturing                          | 7.5           | 9.9           | 7.9               | 3.5                 | 8.5              |
| 4.            | Electricity, gas, water supply & other | 7.2           | 9.3           | 8.0               | 8.0                 | 3.6              |

| S. No.        | Sector                                                                       | Annual   | April- June   | July- September   | October- December   | January -March   |
|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------|-------------------|---------------------|------------------|
| Year: 2014-15 | Year: 2014-15                                                                |          |               |                   |                     |                  |
|               | utility services                                                             |          |               |                   |                     |                  |
| 5.            | Construction                                                                 | 3.0      | 3.2           | 3.5               | 3.2                 | 2.2              |
| 6.            | Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting | 8.6      | 10.4          | 7.2               | 4.8                 | 11.8             |
| 7.            | Financial, real estate & professional services                               | 11.1     | 9.2           | 13.3              | 12.4                | 9.4              |
| 8.            | Public administration, defence and other Services                            | 8.1      | 2.9           | 7.5               | 22.1                | 1.3              |
| 9.            | GVA (Sum of 1 to 8 above)                                                    | 6.9      | 7.5           | 8.1               | 6.1                 | 6.1              |

| S. No.        | Sector                                                                       | Annual   | April- June   | July- September   | October- December   | January -March   |
|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------|-------------------|---------------------|------------------|
| Year: 2015-16 | Year: 2015-16                                                                |          |               |                   |                     |                  |
| 1.            | Agriculture, forestry &fishing                                               | 0.8      | 2.6           | 2.3               | -2.2                | 1.7              |
| 2.            | Mining &quarrying                                                            | 12.3     | 11.2          | 13.9              | 13.3                | 11.5             |
| 3.            | Manufacturing                                                                | 10.6     | 8.5           | 10.3              | 12.8                | 10.8             |
| 4.            | Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services                      | 5.1      | 2.5           | 5.9               | 4.1                 | 7.8              |
| 5.            | Construction                                                                 | 2.8      | 4.8           | 0.0               | 3.2                 | 3.0              |
| 6.            | Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting | 10.7     | 10.6          | 8.9               | 9.6                 | 13.2             |
| 7.            | Financial, real estate & professional services                               | 10.8     | 10.2          | 13.1              | 10.4                | 8.9              |
| 8.            | Public administration, defence and other Services                            | 6.9      | 6.3           | 7.2               | 7.5                 | 6.7              |
| 9.            | GVA (Sum of 1 to 8 above)                                                    | 7.8      | 7.8           | 8.4               | 7.0                 | 8.2              |

| S. No.        | Sector                                                                       | Annual   | April- June   | July- September   | October- December   |
|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------|-------------------|---------------------|
| Year: 2016-17 | Year: 2016-17                                                                |          |               |                   |                     |
| 1.            | Agriculture, forestry &fishing                                               | 4.4      | 1.9           | 3.8               | 6.0                 |
| 2.            | Mining &quarrying                                                            | 1.3      | -0.3          | -1.3              | 7.5                 |
| 3.            | Manufacturing                                                                | 7.7      | 9.0           | 6.9               | 8.3                 |
| 4.            | Electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services                      | 6.6      | 9.6           | 3.8               | 6.8                 |
| 5.            | Construction                                                                 | 3.1      | 1.7           | 3.4               | 2.7                 |
| 6.            | Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting | 7.3      | 8.2           | 6.9               | 7.2                 |
| 7.            | Financial, real estate & professional services                               | 6.5      | 8.7           | 7.6               | 3.1                 |
| 8.            | Public administration, defence and other Services                            | 11.2     | 9.9           | 11.0              | 11.9                |
| 9.            | GVA (Sum of 1 to 8 above)                                                    | 6.7      | 6.9           | 6.7               | 6.6                 |