Lok Sabha Question No. 2666 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-01-03
Subject: Rainfall Distribution Pattern
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: RAVINDRA BABU  PANDULA, DUSHYANT SINGH

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 2666

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 03, 2018

## RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION PATTERN

## 2666. DR. RAVINDRA BABU:

SHRI DUSHYANT SINGH:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether any study/research has been conducted to assess the impact of climate change on changing rainfall distribution pattern;
- (b)
- if so, the details and the outcome thereof;
- (c) the current mechanism of rainfall prediction being used by his Ministry;
- (d) whether  his  Ministry  is  considering  to  take  any  steps  to  devise  an intelligent  prediction/expectation  system  with  modern  analytic  tools  by using  local  weather  information  for  prediction  of  rainfall  and  to  develop early warning system to mitigate the loss due to natural disaster including cyclone; and
- (e)
- (a)

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- Yes Madam.
- (b) Government has undertaken many research studies to analyze the impact of  global  warming  and  climate  change  on  rainfall  pattern  in  India.  The analyses  were  made  using  observed  rainfall  data  from  more  than  3000 rain-gauge  stations  spread  over  the  country  for  115  years  (1901-2015). The major inferences from these studies based on the 115 years of rainfall data are as follows:
- a. The  analysis  of  115  years  of  monsoon  rainfall  data  suggests  that there  is  no  long  term  change  or  trend  in  the  monsoon  rainfall averaged over the country.
- b. Even though, there are no changes in the all-India rainfall, there are significant  changes  in  annual  rainfall  in  some  meteorological  subdivisions.  Rainfall  over  Kerala,  East  Madhya  Pradesh,  Jharkhand, Arunachal  Pradesh  and  Nagaland,  Manipur,  Mizoram  and  Tripura (NMMT)  show  decreasing  trends.  However,  rainfall  over  coastal Karnataka, Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir show an increasing trend.
- if so, the details thereof?
- c. There  is  a  general  tendency  of  increasing  frequency  of  extreme rainfall (heavy rainfall events) over India, especially over the central parts  of  India  during  the  southwest  (June-  September)  monsoon season.
- d. There is no evidence of global warming on the observed changes in annual  or  seasonal  rainfall  over  India.  However,  there  is  growing evidence suggesting that increasing frequency of extreme rainfall is due to global warming.
- e. The  climate  change  assessment  made  by  the  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that in future, frequency of extreme rainfall  may  increase  over  India    due  to  increase  in  global warming.
- f. However, there are NO other long term changes/trends in rainfall over India which can be attributed to global warming. The Indian Monsoon is found to be a stable system.
- (c) India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  issues  three  types  of  forecasts during the monsoon season i.e., seasonal forecast (for the whole season), extended range forecast (10- 30 days), short-medium range forecast (0-10 days).  These  forecasts  are  issued  based  on  dynamical  and  statistical models.
- (d-e)    IMD  has  one  of  the  best  forecasting  mechanisms  for  predicting  tropical cyclones using high resolution advanced mathematical models and a suite of quality observations from Satellites and Radars.

Under the 'National Monsoon Mission' (NMM) a state-of-the-art dynamical prediction  model  for  a)  improved  prediction  of  monsoon  rainfall  on extended  range  to  seasonal  time  scale  (16  days  to  one  season)  and  b) improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) has been developed and is being used operationally by IMD. An improved suite of prediction models  has  been  implemented  operationally  at  India  Meteorological Department (IMD) for enhanced short range weather forecasting capability through assimilation of all available conventional and satellite data.

IMD  operates  24X7  monitoring  of  satellite  and  Doppler  Weather  Radar (DWR) based weather monitoring over the potential cyclogenic zones of the  Bay  of  Bengal  and  Arabian  Sea  for  monitoring  and  forecasting  of tropical cyclones.

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