Lok Sabha Question No. 2710 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-01-03
Subject: Cyclone Forecast
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: K. C. VENUGOPAL, KONDA VISHWESHWAR REDDY, B. SREERAMULU, Tejpratap Singh,Yadav, ANJU BALA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 2710

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 03, 2018

## CYCLONE FORECAST

2710. SHRI K.C. VENUGOPAL:

SHRI KONDA VISHWESHWAR REDDY:

SHRI B. SRIRAMULU:

SHRI TEJ PRATAP SINGH YADAV:

SHRIMATI ANJU BALA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the cyclone Ockhi has wrecked havoc across southern States resulting in loss of lives and properties and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether the precautionary communications to various State Governments  including  Kerala  were  issued  on  possible  cyclone  in Indian ocean and if so, the details thereof;
- (c) whether early warning system for sending cyclone alert has failed to reduce  devastation  caused  by  Ockhi  cyclone  and  if  so,  the  details thereof;
- (d) whether  the  Government  has  taken  any  new  initiatives  to  bring  in technological advancement in cyclone forecasting system and sending early  warning  to  the  affected  States  and  communities  including fishermen, if so, the details thereof including the international cooperation/agreement made/signed in this regard; and
- (e) the steps taken by the Government to develop state-of-the-art cyclone forecasting and management system in the country?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) Damage  as  on  27-12-2017  due  to  cyclone  Ockhi  is  attached  in Annexure-I.
- (b-c)   Yes Madam.

The cyclone Ockhi had rapid intensification during its genesis stage. The  system  emerged  into  the  Comorin  Area  during  night  of  29 th   and intensified  into  Deep  Depression  in  the  early  hrs  of  30 th   and  into Cyclonic Storm in the forenoon of 30 th  Nov. 2017.

Regular warnings were issued for fishermen along and off Tamilnadu, Kerala, Lakshdweep Islands, Goa, Maharashtra, Karnataka & Gujarat, Dadra  Nagar  Haveli,  Daman  and  Diu  coasts.  Three  hourly  Tropical Cyclone  Advisories  were  issued  to  central  &  state  level  disaster managers,  media, general public from 29 th   November  forenoon onwards.

-  The first information regarding formation of depression over Bay Of Bengal (BOB) during next 48-72 hours (i.e. 30 th  onwards) was issued on 28 th  November in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 1200 hrs IST and depression formed over southeast BOB in the morning of 28 th .
-  In  its  first  bulletin  based  on  0830  IST  of  29 th   November  2017, Regional  Specialized  Meteorological  Centre  New  Delhi  indicated the west-northwestward movement of system and its emergence into Comorin area by 30 th . It was also mentioned that the system would intensify further.
-  Cyclone Warning for Lakshadweep, south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu was given in the bulletin issued at 1155 hrs IST of 30 th  Nov.
-  First  warning  of  storm  surge  of  height  about  1.0  m  above astronomical tides likely to inundate low lying areas of Lakshadweep Islands and 0.5 m above astronomical tides likely to inundate low lying areas of south Kerala, south Karnataka coasts was issued on 1700 hrs IST of 30 th .

The  interaction of the India Meteorological Department  (IMD) with Disaster Management agencies were as under;

The common advisory bulletin was issued by IMD to all state Governments (Tamil  Nadu,  Kerala  and  UT  of  Lakshadweep)  for  taking  appropriate precautionary  actions  based  on  the  likely  adverse  conditions  both  over the land and adjoining Sea areas as mentioned in all the bulletins of IMD commencing from Bulletin No. 1 issued in the forenoon of 29th Nov. 2017. Same  contents  of  the  bulletin  were  also  resent  by  NDMA  through WhatsApp group  to  relevant  state  Govt.  authorities  periodically  starting from 29th Nov.

-  First  bulletin  was  issued  at  1155  IST  of  29 th   Nov  to  Tamil  Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep Islands,
-  Total number  of  54 bulletins was  issued by IMD  to disaster management agencies.
-  All the above bulletins were sent to disaster management authorities through e-mail and fax. Also SMSs were sent at least once a day.
-  In addition, IMD officers at Meteorological Centre, Thiruvananthapuram and Chennai regularly interacted with the state Govt  officials  since  29 th   afternoon  through  phone  and  personal meetings.
-  It is to mention that all above communications are directed jointly by IMD and NDMA to Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep to consider taking all necessary response actions at their respective ends.
- (d)-(e)  IMD has one of the best forecasting mechanisms for predicting tropical cyclones using high resolution  advanced  mathematical  models and a suite of quality observations from Satellites and Radars.  IMD also has rich experience of more than 100 years in tropical cyclone prediction and  has  many  trained  and  experienced  scientists  specialized  in forecasting.  In the recent past, IMD accurately predicted cyclones like Phailin, HudHud and Vardah and helped to save thousands of lives.

The  improvement  in  the  monitoring  and  forecasting  of  such  tropical cyclones is a continuous process.

## Annexure-I

## Damage as on 27-12-2017 due to cyclone Ockhi

|   S. No | Items                                  | Tamil Nadu                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 | Kerala                                                                                                 | Lakshadweep                                                                                                                                                                  |
|---------|----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       1 | No. of districts affected              | 01 (Kanya Kumari)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          | 10                                                                                                     | 10 Inhabited Island                                                                                                                                                          |
|       2 | No. of village effected                | Entire District                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            | -                                                                                                      |                                                                                                                                                                              |
|       3 | Population affected                    | Entire District                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            | 33,012                                                                                                 |                                                                                                                                                                              |
|       4 | Human lives lost (district wise)       | Total - 24 (kanyaKumari- 22, Nagapattinam-1, Thoothukudi-1)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | 75                                                                                                     | Nil                                                                                                                                                                          |
|       5 | No. of missing                         | 237                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        | 208*                                                                                                   | nil                                                                                                                                                                          |
|       6 | No. of Injured                         | 28                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         | 234                                                                                                    | Nil                                                                                                                                                                          |
|       7 | Houses damaged                         | Hut damaged-7098 (fully- 1108, Partly-5990)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | Fully-221, Partially- 3379                                                                             | Fully damaged 87 Partially Damaged-935                                                                                                                                       |
|       8 | Animal deaths                          | 7654                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       | -                                                                                                      | 1691                                                                                                                                                                         |
|       9 | Total crop area affected (in hectares) | 5135 hectares                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              | 7817.43 hectares                                                                                       | -                                                                                                                                                                            |
|      10 | Infrastructure eDamage                 |  EB Poles 15,858 (LT Pole - 10623+HT Pole - 5235)  Transformers-95  Tree Fallen-25,526  38 Breaches in Tanks and 31 Breaches in channels/canals  103 Government building got damaged. Damaged to 75.046 Km State Highways, 98.93 Km National Highways, 417.18 Km Rural/Urban Roads has also reported. |  Boats Fully damaged /lost-384  Loss of Road-41 Km  Damage Pumps- 180  Damage of Supply Tanks- 430 |  Boats-Fully damaged/lost 12 Boats Partially damaged-25  Houses Fully damaged-87 Partially damaged-935  Coconut trees-32747  Other trees- 5514  Government building-340 |

-  Source: Ministry of Home Affairs (Disaster Management Division)