Lok Sabha Question No. 1994 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-03-07
Subject: Four-Stage Warning System
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: SHASHI THAROOR

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 1994 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, MARCH 07, 2018

## FOUR-STAGE WARNING SYSTEM

## 1994.      DR. SHASHI THAROOR:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  Government  has  taken  steps  to  improve  the  Indian Meteorological Department's four-stage warning system, particularly on the West coast, to ensure that the commencement of cyclonic disturbance is known to those affected at least 24 hours in advance and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether  a  comprehensive  review  of  existing  advance  warning infrastructure  has  been  initiated  to  analyse  and  remedy  underutilisation  and  wasteful  use  of  resources,  such  as  that  of  the recently  installed  Doppler  Radar  in  Thiruvananthapuram  and  if  so, the details thereof;
- whether a comparative study of advanced warning systems across the  world,  such  as  the  Joint  Typhoon  Warning  Centre  of  the  U.S., has been conducted to identify and incorporate best practices into
- (c) our own; and
- (d)
- if so, the details thereof and if not, the reason therefor?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) Madam, IMD has one of the best forecasting systems for predicting tropical  cyclones  using  high  resolution  advanced  mathematical models  and  a  suite  of  quality  observations  from  Satellites  and Radars. IMD utilises an array of high resolution advanced mathematical models (including global, regional and cyclone specific models) and a suite of quality observations from Satellites, Radars and conventional &automatic weather stations for monitoring  &  predicting  tropical  cyclones  crossing  both  west  and east  coast  of  India.  IMD  has  a  very  effective  Decision  Support System  for  generating  track  of  cyclones  and  analysing  various observations at a single platform.  IMD  has defined Standard Operating  System  for  monitoring  &  forecasting  the  cyclones  and issue of warnings.

Once  a  cyclone  is  noticed,  as  per  Standard  Operating  Procedure four stage forecasting system like Pre cyclone Watch is issued 72 hours  in  advance  of  commencement  of  adverse  weather,  Cyclone Alert  is  issued  48  hours  in  advance  of  commencement  of  adverse weather,  Cyclone  Warning is issued 24 hours in advance  of commencement  of  adverse  weather  and  Post  landfall  outlook  is issued 12 hours before the expected landfall time.

- (b) IMD  and  Ministry  of  Earth  Sciences  have  a  review  mechanism  to constantly review and upgrade the forecasting systems and standard operating procedures. IMD  also conducts a Cyclone Review Meeting annually in the month of January/February to review the  existing  infrastructure  and  their  utilisation  as  well  as  plan  for the  future.  The  existing  advisory/warning  infrastructure  is  being utilised to monitor, analyse and predict cyclonic disturbances. The Doppler  Weather  Radar  (DWR)  at  Thiruvananthapuram  is  being utilised  fully  for  weather  monitoring  after  it's  installation  in  2017. The radar was used effectively during the period of cyclone Ockhi.
- (c) & (d) Yes. A comparative study of advance warning systems across the world  is  carried  out  internationally  in  International  Workshop  on Tropical  Cyclones  every  4  years.  Last  such  meeting  was  held  in December,  2014  and  the  next  meeting  is  proposed  to  be  held  in December, 2018.

IMD  also  functions  as  Regional  Specialised  Meteorological  Centre (RSMC) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide tropical cyclones warning for the cyclonic disturbances developing over  north  Indian  Ocean.  These  advisories  are  issued  to  the WMO/ESCAP  panel  member  countries  including  Bangladesh,  India, Maldives,  Myanmar,  Oman,  Pakistan,  Sri  Lanka  and  Yemen.  The outcomes are shared among various agencies in the world. Further, a  comparative  analysis  of  forecasting  skills  of  various  centres  is carried out in these workshops.

There  has  been  comparative  study  of  cyclone  forecasting  skill  of India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  for  the  cyclones  over  the north Indian Ocean with other leading centres of the world like (i) national  Hurricane  centre  (NHC),  USA  for  the  cyclones  over  the North Atlantic Ocean and (ii) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for the  cyclones  developing  over  Northwest  Pacific  Ocean.  The  study showed that the tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast skill of

IMD is at par with other leading centres.