Lok Sabha Question No. 45 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-11-16
Subject: Weather Forecast
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: FEROZE VARUN GANDHI

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 45

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2016

## WEATHER FORECAST

45. SHRI FEROZE VARUN GANDHI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) Whether weather predictions at sub-local level is not accurate;
- (b) if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor;
- (c) the steps taken by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to refine the data  provided  to  Automatic  Weather  Centres  (AWCs),  Automatic  Rain Gauge (ARG) and other meteorological  projects  designed for  agricultural activities;
- (d) the  details  of  subscription  base  of  agro-meteorological  subscribers  for weather related information, State-wise; and
- (e) if  not,  the  details  therefor  of  the  result  of  satisfaction  as  designed  as feedback process for this metrological data?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a-b) Currently weather forecast is generated at 22 km grid scale over India (up to five days in advance) for formulating weather based agro-meteorological advisories at district level.

As  a  part  of  on-going  process,  performance  of  district  level  weather forecast  issued  for  different  districts  in  the  country  is  verified  against observed  weather  for  last  12  months.  It  has  been  observed  that  the forecast accuracy is very good in East and Central regions and modest in Northwest,  West  and  South  India.  The  forecast  is  not  up  to  the  desired expectation for Northeast region for hilly regions as well as for high rainfall events. The accuracy of the weather forecast is more than  80% qualitatively and 65-70% quantitatively for various regions in the country.

- (c) The realized weather data collected from different observatories (Surface, Agro-met, Automatic Weather stations (AWS), Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) etc.) are used along with weather forecast to generate the Agro Meteorological advisories after proper quality check. At present there are 688 AWS and 1350 ARGs.
- (d) The Agro meteorological Advisory Services (AAS) bulletins are prepared biweekly  along  with  the  forecast  and  issued  to  the  farmers  through multimedia channel and also through SMS using Kisan portal launched by the Ministry of Agriculture for taking decision on farm operations based on weather.  At  present,  19.51  million  farmers  are  directly  subscribing  and have  benefitted  by  the  AAS  bulletins  in  SMS  and  IVRS  free  of  cost.  The Status  of  Dissemination  of  Agro-advisories  for  October  2016  is  given  in Annexure-I.
- (e) As per the recent National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) report,  farming  community  of  the  country  is  using  the  Gramin  Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) service products of IMD for critical farm operations Viz.  i)  Management  of  sowing  (Delayed  onset  of  rains);  ii)  Changing  crop variety  (Delay  in  rainfall);  iii)  Spraying  Pesticides  for  disease  control (occurrence  of  rainfall);  iv)  Managing  Irrigation  (Heavy  rainfall  Forecast). According to a survey, the agriculture specific forecasts of IMD have been found  reliable  by  more  than  93  percent  of  Indian  formers.  95%  of  the farmers  say  that  forecasts  of  IMD  have  improved  during  last  2-4  years. Further, most of the farmers felt that there had been an improvement in the  timeliness  of  the  weather  forecasts.  Among  various  components  of weather elements, rainfall component has the highest priority. Concurrently, with the implementation of District Level Agro meteorological  Advisory  services,  India  has  seen  improved  agriculture performance in the rain fed farming (Covers 60%  of arable land). Incremental  profit  due  to  GKMS  is  assessed  at  25%  of  the  net  income. Potential Annual Economic profit by using GKMS by 24% of the community cultivating 4-principle crops (wheat; paddy; sugarcane; cotton) in 2010 was assessed at Rs. 38,463 Crores (when 2.0 million farmers were subscribed to SMS service), the annual profit rose to Rs.42,000 Crores in 2015 (11.5 million  farmers  have  been  subscribed  to  SMS  service),  Top11-  Principal Crops  was  assessed  as  56,310  Crores  and  top  28-  Principal  Crops  was assessed as Rs. 67,000 Crores in 2015. The study suggests that GKMS has the potential of generating net economic benefit up to Rs.3.3 lakh crores on the 4-principal crops alone when Agro-Meteorological advisory is fully utilized by 90.3 million dependent households.

Annexure-I

| Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   | Status of Dissemination of Agrometeorological Advisories for October 2016   |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| State                                                                       | IFFCO                                                                       | NOKIA                                                                       | Reuter                                                                      | Handygo                                                                     | Reliance Foundation                                                         | Kisan Sanchar                                                               | Mahindra & Mahindra                                                         | State Total                                                                 |
| Uttar Pradesh                                                               | 516755                                                                      | 105600                                                                      | 41148                                                                       | 4409                                                                        |                                                                             | 5963                                                                        |                                                                             | 673875                                                                      |
| Uttarakhand                                                                 |                                                                             |                                                                             | 150                                                                         |                                                                             |                                                                             | 52                                                                          |                                                                             | 202                                                                         |
| Odisha                                                                      | 406024                                                                      | 84                                                                          | 1                                                                           |                                                                             | 180436                                                                      |                                                                             |                                                                             | 586545                                                                      |
| Madhya Pradesh                                                              | 52027                                                                       | 9243                                                                        | 42048                                                                       | 3411                                                                        | 137198                                                                      | 3415                                                                        |                                                                             | 247342                                                                      |
| Chhattisgarh                                                                |                                                                             |                                                                             | 568                                                                         |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 568                                                                         |
| Tamil Nadu                                                                  | 26677                                                                       | 5171                                                                        | 3                                                                           |                                                                             | 260247                                                                      | 109                                                                         |                                                                             | 292207                                                                      |
| Bihar                                                                       | 324629                                                                      | 10264                                                                       | 10                                                                          | 20953                                                                       |                                                                             | 3755                                                                        |                                                                             | 359611                                                                      |
| Jharkhand                                                                   |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 800                                                                         |                                                                             | 800                                                                         |
| Gujarat                                                                     | 50359                                                                       | 10990                                                                       | 8202                                                                        |                                                                             | 107472                                                                      |                                                                             | 52579                                                                       | 229602                                                                      |
| West Bengal                                                                 | 121372                                                                      | 997                                                                         | 1847                                                                        |                                                                             | 6757                                                                        |                                                                             |                                                                             | 130973                                                                      |
| Maharashtra                                                                 | 35188                                                                       | 10799                                                                       | 39465                                                                       | 32124                                                                       | 1699696                                                                     | 1816                                                                        | 66531                                                                       | 1885619                                                                     |
| Haryana                                                                     | 12737                                                                       | 3880                                                                        | 47                                                                          | 2920                                                                        |                                                                             | 2031                                                                        |                                                                             | 21615                                                                       |
| Punjab                                                                      | 22861                                                                       | 4529                                                                        | 20526                                                                       |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 47916                                                                       |
| Rajasthan                                                                   | 86837                                                                       | 146                                                                         | 41197                                                                       |                                                                             | 866                                                                         | 2127                                                                        |                                                                             | 131173                                                                      |
| Karnataka                                                                   | 104467                                                                      | 4578                                                                        | 2129                                                                        |                                                                             | 1370                                                                        |                                                                             |                                                                             | 112544                                                                      |
| Andhra Pradesh                                                              | 68880                                                                       | 6027                                                                        | 1670                                                                        |                                                                             | 267756                                                                      | 106                                                                         |                                                                             | 344439                                                                      |
| Telangana                                                                   |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |
| Kerala                                                                      |                                                                             | 581                                                                         |                                                                             |                                                                             | 82711                                                                       |                                                                             |                                                                             | 83292                                                                       |
| Himachal Pradesh                                                            | 10309                                                                       | 890 1                                                                       |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 11200                                                                       |
| Jammu Kashmir                                                               |                                                                             | 314                                                                         |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 314                                                                         |
| Assam                                                                       |                                                                             | 1375                                                                        |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 1375                                                                        |
| Meghalaya                                                                   |                                                                             | 2                                                                           |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 2                                                                           |                                                                             |
| Delhi                                                                       |                                                                             | 1                                                                           |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             |                                                                             | 1                                                                           |                                                                             |
| Total                                                                       | Total                                                                       | Total                                                                       | Total                                                                       | Total                                                                       | Total                                                                       | Total                                                                       | Total                                                                       | 5161215                                                                     |
| SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | SMS sent by AMFUs through NIC, way 2 sms etc                                | 129961                                                                      |
| SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | SMS sent through Kisan Portal                                               | 14219490                                                                    |
| Grand Total                                                                 | Grand Total                                                                 | Grand Total                                                                 | Grand Total                                                                 | Grand Total                                                                 | Grand Total                                                                 | Grand Total                                                                 | Grand Total                                                                 | 19510666                                                                    |