Lok Sabha Question No. 3608 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2016-12-07
Subject: Monsoon Forecast by IMD
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: R.P. MARUTHARAJAA, P.K.SREEMATHI TEACHER, RANJIT SINGH  BRAHMPURA, PREM SINGH CHANDUMAJRA

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 3608

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 07, 2016

## MONSOON FORECAST BY IMD

3608. SHRI R.P. MARUTHARAJAA: SHRIMATI P.K. SREEMATHI TEACHER: SHRI RANJIT SINGH BRAHMPURA: PROF. PREM SINGH CHANDUMAJRA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  Monsoon  forecast  for  this  year  by  a  private  agency  has  proved more accurate than the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predictions and if so, the details thereof;
- (b) whether  most  of  the  long  range  forecasts  issued  by  the  IMD  regarding monsoon/south-west monsoon season were not accurate;
- (c) if  so,  whether the Government has conducted any study to ascertain the reasons  for  making  the  wrong  forecasts  by  IMD  and  if  so,  the  details thereof; and
- (d) the measures taken to improve the working and technology of IMD and to remove the shortcomings in the functioning thereof?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) No Madam.
- (b) Six  out  of  the  nine  forecasts  issued  by  India  Meteorological  Department (IMD) for the 2016 southwest monsoon season were not within the forecast limits.    The  verification  of  the  various  forecasts  issued  for  the  2016 southwest monsoon season is given below.

| Region          | Period            | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Actual              |
|-----------------|-------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|---------------------|
|                 |                   | 22 th April           | 2 nd June (Update)    | 1 st August           | Rainfall (% of LPA) |
| All India       | June to September | 106 ± 5               | 106 ± 4               |                       | 97                  |
| Northwest India | June to September |                       | 108 ± 8               |                       | 95                  |
| Central India   | June to September |                       | 113 ± 8               |                       | 106                 |

| Northeast India   | June to September   | 94 ± 8   |     | 89   |
|-------------------|---------------------|----------|-----|------|
| South Peninsula   | June to September   | 113 ± 8  |     | 92   |
| All India         | July                | 107 ± 9  |     | 107  |
| All India         | August              | 104 ± 9  |     | 91   |
| All India         | August to September |          | 107 | 8 93 |

*LPA-Long Period Average.

- (c) Yes Madam.

Prior to June, most of the climate forecasting models were indicating high probability  for  the  development  of  La  Nina  during  the  second  half  of  the monsoon  season,  which  was  supposed  to  help  normal  to  above  normal rainfall over India.   However, that did not happen.  Thus non development of La Nina as expected and below normal rainfall during June and August due  to  unfavorable  phases  of  intra-seasonal  activity  caused  most  of  the operational forecasts to be overestimated than the actual rainfall.

- (d) IMD  regularly  reviews  the  operational  long  range  forecasting  system  to improve  it  through  in  house  research  and  development  activities  & collaboration with various research institutions in the country.  The operational  statistical  models  are  mainly  improved  by  implementing  the latest state of the art statistical forecasting techniques and by using better predictors.

Under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, other institutions of Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) , Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean  Information  Services  (INCOIS), Hyderabad  and  National  Centre  for  Medium  Range  Weather  Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA have embarked upon to build a state-of-the-art coupled ocean atmospheric climate model for a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and b)  improved  prediction  of  temperature,  rainfall  and  extreme  weather events  on  short  to  medium  range  time  scale  (up  to  15  days)  so  that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of IMD.

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