Lok Sabha Question No. 872 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-02-07
Subject: Weather Forecast System
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: SHARAD TRIPATHI

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 872 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7, 2018

## WEATHER FORECAST SYSTEM

## 872.  SHRI SHARAD TRIPATHI:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  scientists of India have successfully developed various models to make exact forecast with regard to the coming of monsoon and changes in the monsoon generally in Asia and especially in India;
- (b) if so, the details thereof and the extent to which exact forecasting of monsoon has been made;
- (c) the  modality  regarding  the  minimum  advance  period  of  forecast,  its intensity  and  expansion,  especially  to  provide  information  to  farmers regarding different agroclimatic areas;
- (d) the  number  of  research  institutes  engaged  in  research  activities  on monsoon in the country; and
- (e) the project-wise total allocation of fund made for undertaking research in this field during the last three plan periods?

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND

## ANSWER MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) Yes  Madam.  Scientists  of  India  have  successfully  developed  various models to make reliable forecasts with regards to monsoon onset (the coming  of  monsoon),  its  seasonal  &  extended  range  prediction  and monsoon  variability  (intra-seasonal  &  inter-annual  changes  in  the monsoon)  for  Asian  Monsoon  system,  especially  for  Indian  summer monsoon.
- (b) The  Ministry  of  Earth  Sciences  (MoES)  has  taken  lot  of  important initiatives  for  considerable  progress  in  the  field  of  Earth  Sciences during  recent  years,  especially  for  prediction  of  monsoon  and  its variability in different time scales. One of the most important achievements  was  the  successful  implementation  of  the  'Monsoon Mission'  (which  was  earlier  launched  in  2012),  a  mission  based program of MoES to  improve  monsoon  prediction  & weather forecast

through collaborative research amongst MoES  organizations and involving  various  national  and  international  reputed  organizations  in this goal through various projects with this objective. The first phase of the Mission was completed successfully in 2017, with lot of achievements, including setting up of very advanced prediction systems  for  Seasonal  prediction  (mainly  for  SW  monsoon  season  of June to September); Extended range prediction (for next 20 days) and Very  high  resolution  Short  range  prediction  (up  to  8  days).  The seasonal prediction skill of dynamic models has also improved considerably. All the above model developments have been transferred to ESSO-IMD for providing operational forecast of the monsoon system (in different time scales) to the nation. In addition to above IMD uses state  of  art  statistical  models  developed  through  IMD's  in  house research and development work for Long Range Forecast of Monsoon.

- (c) India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  under  Gramin  Krishi  Mausam Sewa (GKMS) scheme generates district level weather forecast for the next five days exclusively for the farmers in the country. Based on the forecast, district Agromet  Advisory Services (AAS) bulletins are prepared by the Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) covering different Agroclimatic zones in the country. These AAS bulletins are prepared twice a week  (Tuesday  &  Friday)  and  issued  to  the  farmers  through multimedia  channel  and  also  through  SMS  using  Kisan  portal  and private companies.  At present, 22.7 million farmers receive the weather forecast and agromet advisories directly. Inputs from Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) for the next two weeks are also  incorporated  in  the  preparation  of  agromet  advisories  especially during prolonged dry spell conditions and break-in monsoon situation to cope up with moisture stress in the standing crops.
- (d) The  names  of  the  research  Institutions  in  the  country  engaged  in forecast/research on monsoon is given below.

|   Sl No. | Institution                                                                  |
|----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|        1 | India Meteorological Department                                              |
|        2 | Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune                               |
|        3 | The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi |
|        4 | Indian Space Research Organization - Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad    |
|        5 | Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar                                  |
|        6 | Centre for Disaster Mitigation, Jain University, Bangalore                   |
|        7 | Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune                           |

|   8 | Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi                       |
|-----|-------------------------------------------------------------|
|   9 | Indian Institute of Science, Banglore                       |
|  10 | Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUSAT), Cochin |
|  11 | Andhra University, Vishakapatanam                           |
|  12 | Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune                      |
|  13 | Nansen Environmental Research Centre- India (NERCI), Cochin |

## (e) The plan wise expenditure details  (for Grants  to IITM)  are as follows:

10 th  Five Year Plan : Rs. 47.72 Crores

11 th  Five Year Plan : Rs. 367.25 Crores

12 th  Five Year Plan : Rs. 919.79 Crores

The details of allocation (sanctioned amount), grant received (from the Ministry)  and  the  expenditure  under  Monsoon  Mission  for  3  financial years (2014-15 to 2016-17) are as follows:

Project (Program) : Monsoon Mission

| Year    |   Allocation (in Crores of Rupees) |   Grant received (in Crores of Rupees) |   Expenditure (in Crores of Rupees) |
|---------|------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|
| 2014-15 |                              59.35 |                                  23.55 |                               25.69 |
| 2015-16 |                              49.35 |                                  27.6  |                               22.36 |
| 2016-17 |                              49.4  |                                  11.66 |                               18.91 |

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