Lok Sabha Question No. 2351 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-08-01
Subject: Forecast Model
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: PARBHUBHAI NAGARBHAI VASAVA, George Baker, ANIL SHIROLE

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 2351

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 1, 2018

## FORECAST MODEL

2351. SHRI PARBHUBHAI NAGARBHAI VASAVA: SHRI GEORGE BAKER:

SHRI ANIL SHIROLE:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) the  details  of  models  used/being  used  by  the  Government  to  get accurate  prediction  of  extreme  weather  conditions  like  rains,  heat wave and cold wave across the country, State/UT-wise including West Bengal and Gujarat;
- (b)
- the details of the outcome as a results thereof;
- whether  the  Government  is  planning  to  introduce  a  new  forecast
- (c) model across the country;
- (d)
- if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor; and
- (e) the funds likely to be sanctioned for the purpose along with the time by which it is likely to be introduced ?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (Dr. HARSH VARDHAN)

- (a)-(b)  The following models are run operationally by IMD for the forecasting
- of  extreme weather on routine basis.
- (i) High resolution Global forecast System (GFS)  for medium range weather  forecasting    :  Since  December  2016  IMD  is  using    the Global Forecast System (GFS) operationally every day to generate deterministic  forecasts  at  12  km  horizontal  resolution in the short  to  medium  range  (Up  to  10  days).  The  GFS assimilates  global  conventional  atmospheric  data  as  well  data from the data from satellites and weather radars.
- (ii) High resolution Global ensemble forecast System (GEFS) model for medium range weather forecasting: A high resolution (12 km grid  scale)  state  of  the  art  Global  Ensemble  Prediction  System (EPS) was  commissioned  on  01 June 2018 for generating operational probabilistic weather forecasts for 10 days.

The EPS will enhance the weather information being provided by the current models  by  quantifying  the  uncertainties  in the weather  forecasts  and  generate  probabilistic  forecasts.  The probabilistic forecasts of heavy rainfall amount, high temperature,  low  temperature  will  be  very  useful  for  various sectors.

The  probabilistic  forecasts  of  severe  weather  events  at  12  km grid scale across India is very helpful for the disaster management  authorities and other users in making better emergency  response  decisions  by  explicitly  accounting  for  the uncertainty in weather forecasts.

- (iii) Regional  models:      The  Weather  Research  Forecast  (WRF) regional  model  with  two  domains  (at  9  km  and  3  km)  is  used twice a day for short range weather forecasting (up to 3 days).  In addition the Hurricane WRF  (HWRF)  model  has  also been implemented to use operationally for the forecasting of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean.

Noticeable improvements have been achieved in prediction skills of  heavy  rainfall,  tropical  cyclones  and  heat  waves  during  the recent years.

- (c)   No Madam. The above mentioned forecast systems will be improved further for better accuracy.

(d-e)  Does not arise.

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