Lok Sabha Question No. 3418 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2017-03-22
Subject: Weather Forecast
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: RAYAPATI SAMBASIVA RAO, PRATHAP SIMHA, PR. SENTHILNATHAN

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 3418 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, MARCH 22, 2017

## WEATHER FORECAST

## 3418.   SHRI RAYAPATI SAMBASIVA RAO:

SHRI PRATHAP SIMHA: SHRI PR. SENTHIL NATHAN:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  Government  has  chalked  out  any  new  initiatives aimed  to  bring  in  scientific  and  technological  advancement  in predicting detection, monitoring natural calamities like earthquakes, floods and cyclones, abnormal weather, unseasonal rains etc.;
- (b) if so, the details thereof and the details of States who have sought technological support in this regard along with the Government's reaction thereto;
- (c) the  details  of  countries  and  Government  agencies  abroad  who have signed MoU with India for providing technological support in this regard;
- (d) the priority sectors earmarked for the next 3 years for strengthening  and  protecting  the  India's  agro  based  industries, fishing and maritime trade, transport and coastal security;
- (e) the roles and responsibilities and other stakeholders in this regard;
- and
- (f) the  details  of  the  predictions  or  forecast  of  weather,  drought  or flash  floods,  etc.  that  has  come  true  during  the  last  three  years and the current year?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a-b) Yes  Madam.  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD),  Ministry  of Earth Sciences (MoES) is responsible for monitoring, detection and forecasting  of  weather  and  climate  extremes  including  severe weather events such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, extreme temperature  etc.  Such  forecasts  are  issued  at  national,  regional and  state  levels.  In  order  to  provide  early  warning  of  severe weather events, IMD has setup a network of state meteorological centres  to  have  better  coordination  with  state  and  district  level agencies.

In order to meet specific requirements of flood forecasting which is  provided  by  central  water  commission,  IMD  operates  Flood Meteorological  Offices  (FMOs)  at  thirteen  locations  viz.,  Agra, Ahmedabad, Asansol, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Jalpaiguri,  Lucknow,  New  Delhi,  Patna,  Chennai,  Bengaluru  and Srinagar. During the flood season, FMOs provide valuable meteorological support to the Central Water Commission (CWC) for issuing flood warnings in respect of the 43 rivers of India. CWC is working in close association with IMD and State Governments for timely  flood  forecast  whenever  the  river  water  level  rises  above warning level. To meet the requirement of State Governments, IMD Officers  invariably  attend  all  the  meetings  called  by  the  State Governments for reviewing the preparedness on floods by various agencies.

To date, there is no proven scientific technique available, anywhere  in  the  world,  to  forecast/  predict  the  occurrence  of earthquakes  with  reasonable  degree  of  accuracy  with  regard  to space, time and magnitude. However, National Centre for Seismology (NCS), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) maintains a country wide seismological network, to detect and locate earthquakes  occurring  in  and  around  the  country.  The  network consists  of  state-of-art  digital  broadband  seismographs,  VSAT based communication systems and latest tools for dissemination of  earthquake  information  to  the  concern  disaster  management authorities  and  other  user  agencies  in  least  possible  time.  The network  also  includes  a  17-station  real  time  seismic  monitoring system to monitor and report large magnitude earthquakes capable  of  generating  tsunamis  on  the  Indian  coastal  regions. Antsunami early warning system is also in place at Indian National Centre  for  Ocean  Information  Services  (INCOIS),  Hyderabad  to provide  early  warning  on  tsunamis  likely  to  be  generated  on  the Indian Coastal areas by large magnitude under sea earthquakes.

- (c) Through Indo-US collaboration, a 'Monsoon Desk' has been set up for  working  jointly  for  improving  seasonal  forecast  of  Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise. This effort has led  to  appreciable  improvements  in  the  efficiency  of  models  in making  better  forecasts.      MoES  has  also  joined  the  consortium with the U. K. Met Office (UKMO), Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial and Research Organization (CSIRO) and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Limited for the development of state-of-theart seamless Unified Modelling (UM) system for weather prediction in daily/monthly/seasonal time scale.

Ministry  has  signed  a  few  important  MoU's  to  strengthen  and innovate  earth  science  research.  This  includes  (1)  MoU  with International  Continental  scientific  Drilling  Program  (ICDP),  GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany, (2) MoU with China  Earthquake  Administration  (CEA)  for  collaboration  in  the area of Earthquake Science and Earthquake Engineering, (3) MoU with  Ministry  of  Mines/GSI  on  General  framework  for  sharing  of geological, geophysical and other data/information for enrichment of Geoscientific knowledge base for sustainable development.

- (d-e) India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)  is  rendering  weather  forecast  based  District  level  AgroMeteorological Advisory Service (AAS) for the benefit of farmers in the country under the 'GraminKrishiMausamSewa (GKMS)' programme of the ministry in collaboration with Indian Council of Agricultural  Research  (ICAR)  and  State  Agricultural  Universities. These crop & locale-specific AAS are provided to the about 20.6 million  farmers  to  enable  them  take  appropriate  actions  at  farm level  to  take  benefit  of  favourable  weather  conditions  and  to minimize  adverse  impacts  of  unfavourable  weather  conditions. Recognizing  the  importance  of  the  service,  the  establishment  of the  660  District  AgroMet  field  Units  (DAMUs)  in  the  premises  of KrishiVigyanKendras (KVKs) is one the Departmental Action Plans of MoES to provide AAS services at block level by the end of 2019.

For the benefit of fisherman community, a customized application for  the  fishermen  community  of  the  country,  called  "Potential Fishing  Zone  (PFZ)  Advisories",  is  operated  successfully  since 1999 useful for guiding the fishermen about locations of high fish grounds/aggregation/catch . In addition, the Ocean State Forecast (OSF) (wave height and direction, wind speed and direction, ocean currents,  sea  surface  temperature,  depth  of  mixed  layer  and thermo  cline,  sea  level  at  major  and  minor  ports,  etc.  is  also provided  to  fisherman  to  have  full  idea  of  the  associated  ocean state conditions in those identified PFZs. By the end of 2019 it is targeted  to  reach  all  the  8-9  lakh  active  fishermen.  The  Ocean State  Forecasts  are  provided  to  Indian  Coast  Guard  (ICG)  and

Indian Navy who have the responsibility of coastal security.

- (f) The accuracy of the weather forecast is more than 80% qualitatively  and  65-70  quantitatively  for  various  regions  in  the country. The forecast of drought or flash floods are not the domain of  India  Meteorological  Department.  However,  the  forecast  of southwest monsoon is under the domain of IMD. The verification of the  operational  long  range  forecast  for  2014,  2015  &  2016  SW monsoon rainfall are given in Annexure-I.

## Annexure-I

Verification of the operational long range forecast for 2014 south west monsoon rainfall.

|                 |                     | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Forecast (% of LPA)     | Forecast (% of LPA)       | Actual Rainfall   |
|-----------------|---------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------|
| Region          | Period              | 24 th April           | 9 th June (1 st Update) | 12 th August (2nd Update) | (% of LPA)        |
| All India       | June to September   | 95 ± 5                | 93 ± 4                  | 87 ± 4                    | 88                |
| Northwest India | June to September   |                       | 85 ± 8                  | 76 ± 8                    | 79                |
| Central India   | June to September   |                       | 94 ± 8                  | 89 ± 8                    | 90                |
| Northeast India | June to September   |                       | 99 ± 8                  | 93 ± 8                    | 90                |
| South Peninsula | June to September   |                       | 93 ± 8                  | 87 ± 8                    | 93                |
| All India       | July                |                       | 93 ± 9                  |                           | 90                |
| All India       | August              |                       | 96 ± 9                  |                           | 90                |
| All India       | August to September |                       |                         | 95 ± 8                    | 98                |

Verification  of  the  operational  long  range  forecast  for 2015 south  west  monsoon rainfall.

| Region          | Period              | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Actual Rainfall (% of LPA)   |
|-----------------|---------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------|
|                 |                     | 22 th April           | 2 th June (Update)    |                              |
| All India       | June to September   | 93 ± 5                | 88 ± 4                | 86                           |
| Northwest India | June to September   |                       | 85 ± 8                | 83                           |
| Central India   | June to September   |                       | 90 ± 8                | 84                           |
| Northeast India | June to September   |                       | 90 ± 8                | 92                           |
| South Peninsula | June to September   |                       | 92 ± 8                | 85                           |
| All India       | July                |                       | 92 ± 9                | 84                           |
| All India       | August              |                       | 90 ± 9                | 78                           |
| All India       | August to September |                       | 84 ± 8                | 77                           |

Verification  of  the  operational  long  range  forecast  for  2016  south  west    monsoon rainfall.

| Region          | Period              | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Forecast (% of LPA)   | Actual Rainfall   |
|-----------------|---------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|-------------------|
|                 |                     | 22 th April           | 2 nd June (Update)    | 1 st August           | (% of LPA)        |
| All India       | June to September   | 106 ± 5               | 106 ± 4               |                       | 97                |
| Northwest India | June to September   |                       | 108 ± 8               |                       | 95                |
| Central India   | June to September   |                       | 113 ± 8               |                       | 106               |
| Northeast India | June to September   |                       | 94 ± 8                |                       | 89                |
| South Peninsula | June to September   |                       | 113 ± 8               |                       | 92                |
| All India       | July                |                       | 107 ± 9               |                       | 107               |
| All India       | August              |                       | 104 ± 9               |                       | 91                |
| All India       | August to September |                       |                       | 107 ± 8               | 93                |