Lok Sabha Question No. 5859 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2018-04-03
Subject: Emission of Greenhouse in Agriculture Sector
Ministry: AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
Asked by: RAJIV PRATAP RUDY

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH & EDUCATION

## LOK SABHA UNSTARRED QUESTION NO. 5859 TO BE ANSWERED ON 03/04/2018

## EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE IN AGRICULTURE SECTOR

## 5859.  SHRI RAJIV PRATAP RUDY:

Will the Minister of AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE d`f"k vkSj fdlku dY;k.k ea=h be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  the  agriculture  sector  is  currently  responsible  for  nearly  17  per  cent  of global anthropogenic greenhouses gas emissions;
- (b) if so, the details thereof and the reaction of the Government thereto;
- (c) whether the Government has made any assessment regarding impact of climatic change on small agricultural system in the country, if so, the details thereof; and
- (d) whether the Government has taken any initiative for climate smart agriculture to reduce the impact of global climate change on the agriculture sector in the country and if so, the details thereof?

## A N S W E R

MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE d`f'k vkSj fdlku dY;k.k ea=ky; esa jkT; ea=h

(SHRI GAJENDRA SINGH SHEKHAWAT)

- (a) Yes, Madam.
- (b) India is a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

According to the first Biennial Update Report (BUR), India's gross emissions of Greenhouse Gases were equivalent to 2.136 billion tonnes of  CO 2  in 2010. Out of this, Energy  sector  contributed  71%,  Industrial  Process  and  Product  Use  (IPPU)  8%, Agriculture 18% and Waste sector 3%. About 12% of emissions were offset by carbon sink  action  of  forests  and  croplands.  Therefore,  the  national  GHG  net  emissions amounted  to  a  total  equivalent  of  1.884  billion  tonnes  Gg  of  CO 2 . The  sector  wise emissions within agriculture in India during the year 2010 are given in Annexure-I.

(c) Though the GHG emissions from agriculture sector is much less when compared to other sectors but the overall impact of climate change on agriculture is much more as more than half of the population is dependent on this sector. Agriculture is dependent on many climatic factors like temperature, rainfall, humidity, sunshine duration etc., which are  not  only  impacting  the  crop  performance  now;  but  will  in  future  too.  Climatic variations  may impact crops both positively and negatively depending  on the nature of crop. However, various national and global studies have shown declining trends in crop production of different crops due to climate change.

## Details on Indian studies on projected impacts on agriculture (crops, livestock and fish) are given in Annexure-II.

(d) India  has  made  a  number  of  efforts  to  address  climate  change. The  Government has  launched  the  National  Action  Plan  on  Climate  Change  (NAPCC)  in  June  2008  to achieve its goals and deal with the issues related to climate change. Thirty-two States and Union  Territories  (UTs)  have  also  prepared  State  Action  Plan  on  Climate  Change (SAPCC) consistent with the objectives of NAPCC.

As a result of domestic efforts, India's emission intensity of GDP has decreased by 12% between 2005 and 2010.

In  order  to  assess  the  impact  of  Climate  change/variability  on  agriculture, Government  of  India  through  the  Indian  Council  of  Agricultural  Research  (ICAR) launched a flagship network project 'National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture' (NICRA)  during  XI  Plan  in  2011,  and  from  XII  Plan  it  is  referred  as  'National Innovations  in  Climate  Resilient  Agriculture'.  This  programme  is  being  implemented under  four  components,  viz.,  Strategic  Research  (41  ICAR  Institutes),  Sponsored  and Competitive  Grants  (18  +  33  Projects),  Technology  Demonstration  (121  KVKs,  25 AICRIPAM, 23 AICRIPDA Centers), Capacity Building and Knowledge Management.

The  Technology  Demonstration  Component  (TDC)  of  the  National  Initiative (Innovations) on Climate Resilient Agriculture was initiated in 2011 to demonstrate the location specific technologies enabling farmers to cope with current climatic variability and  to  enhance  their  adaptive  capacity.  The  programme  is  being  taken  up  in  151 climatically vulnerable districts/KVKs of the country by taking one or two representative villages from each of the district.

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## Annexure-I [Part (b) of Lok Sabha USQ No.5859 for 03/04/2018]

The sector wise emissions within agriculture in India during the year 2010 are as follows:

| Source of emissions                | Quantity ( in Gigagrams) CO 2 equivalents         |
|------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|
| Enteric fermentation               | 227,033                                           |
| Manure management                  | 2,768                                             |
| Rice cultivation                   | 71,367                                            |
| Agricultural crop residue          | 7,915                                             |
| Emissions from soil                | 81,080                                            |
| Emissions from Agricultural sector | 390,165 (18.3% of total emissions of the country) |
| Total emissions                    | 1,884,309 (100%)                                  |

Source: First Biennial Update Report (2015)

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## Indian studies on projected impacts on agriculture (crops, livestock and fish)

Climate change impact projections are worked out for major crops such as rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, mustard, soybean, potato, cotton and coconut. Summary of the projections for these crops as follows:-

-  Climate change is projected to reduce irrigated rice yield by ~4 % in 2020 (2010-2039) and rainfed rice yield by 6%. Rainfed rice yields in India to reduce by ~6% in the 2020 and  <2.5  %  in  2050  (2041-2070)  and  2080  (2070-2099)  scenarios.  With  adaptation, however, irrigated rice  yield  to  increase  by  about  17%  and  rainfed  rice  yield  by  about 20% (Naresh Kumar et al., 2013). Recent study also indicated a reduction in rice yield indifferent  agro-climatic regions in  India  (Singh et al., 2017).  Earlier studies also have reported negative impact of climate change in rice yield in some parts of India (Lal et al., 1998; Saseendran et al., 2000, Kumar et al., 2016).
-  Wheat yield in  India  would  reduce  by  6  to  23%  by  2050  scenario,  if  no  adaptation  is followed.  Yield  would  reduce  in  areas  with  mean  seasonal  maximum  and  minimum temperatures more than 27 and 13°C, respectively. Adjusting the time of sowing, suitable variety  and  input  (fertilizer  and  irrigation)  management  may  be  a  practical  low-cost adaptation strategy to increase the yield (by >10%) in future climates (Naresh Kumar et al., 2014). With every 1 o C increase in temperature, wheat yield is projected to lose 6Mt, similarly  rice  yield  is  projected  to  be  affected  (Aggarwal  and  Mall  2002,  Mall  and Aggarwal, 2002, Aggarwal and Swaroopa Rani, 2009).
-  Maize yield in kharif season is projected to decrease by 18% but adaptation can increase the  yield  up  to  21%  in  2020  scenario  (Byjesh  et  al.,  2010;  Naresh  Kumar  et  al., 2012).Earlier studies suggest a 2 to 5% decrease in yield potential of wheat and maize for a temperature rise of 0.5 to 1.5°C in India (Aggarwal, 2003).
-  Rainfed sorghum yield is projected to reduce by 2.5% in 2020 (2010-2039). Adaptation, however, can increase the productivity by 8% in 2020 (Srivastava et al., 2010; Naresh Kumar et al., 2012).
-  Mustard yield is projected to reduce by ∼ 2% in 2020 (2010-2039). Regions with mean seasonal  temperature  regimes  above  25/10  °C  to  lose  due  to  temperature  rise.    As climatically suitable period for mustard cultivation may reduce in future, short-duration (<130 days) cultivars with 63% pod filling period will become more adaptable (Naresh Kumar et al., 2015).
-  Increase in soybean yield in the range of 8-13% under different future climate scenarios (2030 and 2080) is projected. In case of rainfed groundnut, except in the climate scenario of A1B 2080 (-5%), in rest of the scenarios yield is projected to increase by 4-7% (Bhatia et al., 2012; Naresh Kumar et al., 2012).
-  The potato crop duration in the Indo-Gangetic Plains is projected to decrease and yield is to reduce by ~2.5, ~6 and ~11% in 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 time periods,  respectively.  Change  in  planting  time  could  be  the  most  important  adaptation option which may lead to yield gain by ~6% in 2020 (Naresh Kumar et al., 2016).
-  Cotton  productivity  in  northern  India  may  marginally  decline  due  to  climate  change while in central and southern India, productivity may increase. However, at the national level, cotton productivity is may not be affected (Hebbar et al., 2013).
-  Climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity  in western coastal region, Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra (provided current level of water and management is made available in future climates as well) and also in North-Eastern states,  islands  of  Andaman  and  Nicobar  and  Lakshadweep  while  negative  impacts  are

projected for Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat and parts of Karnataka and Tamil  Nadu.  Productivity  in  India  can  be  improved  by  20%  to  almost  double  if  all plantations in India  are  provided  with  location  specific  agronomic  and  genotype intervention in current climates (Naresh Kumar and Aggarwal, 2014).

-  Apple  productivity  is  affected  and  its  cultivation  is  shifted  to  higher  latitudes  to  2500 mamsl from 1250 mamsl in Himachal Pradesh (Bhagat et al., 2009).
-  Climatic stresses such as heavy rainfall events damage horticultural crops. Flooding for 24 h affects tomato with flowering period being sensitive. Similarly, onion bulb initiation stage  is  sensitive  to  flooding  causing  a  27  and  48%  reduction  in  bulb  size  and  yield, respectively (Rao et al., 2009).
-  Climate  change  is  projected  to  affect  the  quality  in  terms  of  reduced  concentration  of grain protein (under low fertilizer input conditions), and some minerals like zinc and iron due to elevated CO2 (Porter et al., 2014).
-  Elevated  CO2  caused  reduction  in  the  concentration  of  protein,  secondary  metabolites while  rise  in  temperature  enhanced  their  concentration  in  pulse,  several  vegetable  and fruit crops.
-  Global warming is likely to lead to a loss of 1.6 Mt milk production by 2020 and 15 Mt by 2050 if no adaptation is followed. The losses may be highest in UP followed by Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and West Bengal.  Increased number of heat stress days and probable decline in availability of water may further impact animal productivity (Upadhyay et al., 2013).
-  Rise  in  temperature  caused  latitudinal  extension  in  abundance  of  oil  sardine  along  the Indian  cost.  Marine  fish  availability  has  extended  to  deep  waters  and  the  spawning activity of Nemipterus spp. reduced in summer months and shifted towards cooler months (Vivekanandan et al., 2013).
-  Breeding  season  of  Indian  major  carps  extended  from  110-120  days  (Pre  1980-85)  to 160-170 days, making it possible to  breed  them  twice  in  a  year  at  an  interval  ranging from 30-60 days (Das et al., 2013).
-  Rise in temperature causes reduction in egg and meat production of poultry birds. The critical body temperature at which the poultry birds succumb to death is 45 °C which was observed at the shed temperature of 42 °C (Reddy et al., 2013).
-  Climate change is projected to increase soil erosion, affect water availability and quality (IPCC, 2014).
-  Indian farmers have been adapting to climatic risks. A detailed household level analysis in a village indicated that the cost of adaptation and gains vary with type of climatic risk, type of agriculture and farm size. Strategies such as improved varieties, crop diversification,  crop  water  and  livestock  management,  value  additions,  etc.  have  led  to farm resilience to climatic risks. Small and marginal farm (<4 acre) families can't support themselves  with  agricultural  income  alone;  however  with  adaptation  a  self-sustaining agriculture  could  be  achieved.  Additional  cost  is  not  always  required  for  adaptation (particularly  in  mid  and  large  farm  holdings)  and  rationalizing  agricultural  expenditure through  scientific  crop  management  is  essential  for  adapting  to  climatic  risks  (Naresh Kumar et al., 2014; 2016).

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