Lok Sabha Question No. 3828 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2017-08-09
Subject: Monsoon Prediction
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: NAGENDRA KUMAR PRADHAN, G. HARI, Shrirang Appa Barne, ANANDRAO  ADSUL, DHARMENDRA YADAV, VINAYAK BHAURAO RAUT

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 3828 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 09, 2017

## MONSOON PREDICTION

## 3828. SHRI NAGENDRA KUMAR PRADHAN:

SHRI G. HARI:

SHRI SHRIRANG APPA BARNE:

SHRI ANANDRAO ADSUL:

SHRI DHARMENDRA YADAV:

SHRI VINAYAK BHAURAO RAUT:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether  farmers  in  the  country  including  those  not  having  irrigation facilities are now using the agricultural meteorology (Agrimet) service of the India Meteorological Department;
- (b) if so, whether monsoon prediction many times do not come true causing failure of planning of large number of farmers in the country;
- (c) if so, whether there have been instances where scientists, prediction for monsoon  are  motivated  by  multinational  companies  dealing  with business of seeds, pesticides etc. to boost their business and if so, the details of the steps taken by the Government to check such activities in the country;
- (d) whether the Government has received any complaints and conducted any investigations to check such nexus of scientists and multinational companies and if so, the details and the outcome thereof;
- (e) whether  there  is  scope  to  extend  weather  predictions  to  large-scale hydrological  prediction,  both  short  and  long-term  and  if  so,  the  steps taken by the Union Government thereon; and
- (f) whether  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  had  predicted  ample rain for the months of April and May, but after initial showers many parts of the country did not receive much rain and if so, the details thereof and
- the reasons therefor?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) Yes  Madam.  The Gramin Krishi Mausam  Seva  (GKMS)  of India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers for appropriate field level actions. Weather forecast based agrometeorological advisories are disseminated through Kisan portal launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and also
- under  public  private  partner.  At  present,  23.0  million  farmers  in  the country are receiving the SMS based advisories.
- (b) No,  Madam.    The  present  long  range  forecast  system  based  on  the statistical  models  has  shown  some  useful  skill  in  predicting  all  India seasonal rainfall including the deficient monsoon season rainfall during 2015.  However, in order to overcome the limitations of the statistical models  used  so  far,  dynamical  coupled  ocean-atmospheric  model framework has been implemented under the National Monsoon Mission.
- (c) IMD  issues  three  types  of  forecasts  during  the  monsoon  season  i.e., seasonal forecast (for the whole season), extended range forecast  (1030  days)    and  medium  range  forecast  (3-10  days)  for  the  benefit  of farmers which help in reduction of crop loss substantially. In case of extended  dry  spell  or  wet  spell  situations  captured  by  the  extended range weather forecast, contingent crop planning is also advised so that crop loss could be minimised. Recent report (2015) by National Centre for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) indicates that large numbers of farmers  have  faith  and  confidence  these  days  on  IMD's  weather forecasts.
- (d) Does not arise.
- (e) Meteorological  support  with  river  basin  scale  rainfall  predictions  on short/medium range scale is already shared with Central Water Commission and hosted on Central Rainfall Information System (CRIS) web-page of IMD.
- (f) No Madam. No prediction was made of rainfall for the months of April and May. IMD issues long range forecast for the Monsoon season (JuneSeptember) only.

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