Lok Sabha Question No. 989 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2017-02-08
Subject: Rainfall Prediction
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: K. MARAGATHAM

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 989

## TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 08, 2017

## RAINFALL PREDICTION

## 989.   SHRIMATI K. MARAGATHAM:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether the country got three percent less rain than normal during the monsoon months of June to September, 2016;
- (b) if  so, whether this is the first time since 2011 that the department was not able to forecast the overall sign of the monsoon this year and if so, the details and the reasons therefor;
- (c) whether  it  is  also  true  that  the  southern  parts  of  our  country received much less rain during these monsoon months; and
- (d) if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) Yes Madam. The seasonal rainfall during the 2016 monsoon season (June-September) over the country as a whole was 862 mm or 3% less  than  its  Long  Period  Average  (LPA).  The  LPA  for  the  period 1951-2000 is 887.5 mm.
- (b) No Madam. The forecasted and realized seasonal rainfall anomalies during the period 2010-2016 are given in Table -1.  As seen in the table, the signs of the forecasted rainfall anomalies were same as that of realized rainfall anomalies in 4 years whereas the signs were different during 3 years (2011, 2013 & 2016).

The forecasted and realized seasonal rainfall anomalies during the

Table -1 period 2010-2016

|   Year |   Actual% departure |   Forecast %departure |
|--------|---------------------|-----------------------|
|   2010 |                   2 |                     2 |
|   2011 |                   2 |                    -5 |
|   2012 |                  -7 |                    -4 |
|   2013 |                   6 |                    -2 |
|   2014 |                 -12 |                    -7 |
|   2015 |                 -14 |                   -12 |
|   2016 |                  -3 |                     6 |

- (c-d)  Yes Madam. Among the four broad geographical regions (NW India, NE  India,  central  India  &  South  Peninsula)  of  the  country,  south Peninsula received relatively less rainfall (92% of LPA) though it was more  than  that  of  NE  India  (89%  of  LPA).    The  subdivision  wise rainfall over south Peninsula during the 2016 SW monsoon season is given  in  Annexure-I.    Among  the  various  subdivisions  from  south Peninsula, Kerala got the least rainfall (66%) followed by Lakshadweep  (75%  of  LPA).    However,  Costal  Andhra  Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema received normal rainfall.

Annexure-I Subdivision  wise  rainfall  during  SW  monsoon  season  2016  over  south Peninsula.

|   SOUTH PENINSULA | SOUTH PENINSULA        |   Realised rainfall |   Long Period Average | % of LPA   |
|-------------------|------------------------|---------------------|-----------------------|------------|
|                 1 | COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH |               662.9 |                 581.1 | 114%       |
|                 2 | TELANGANA              |               899.8 |                 755.2 | 119%       |
|                 3 | RAYALASEEMA            |               392.2 |                 398.3 | 98%        |
|                 4 | TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY |               258.1 |                 317.2 | 81%        |
|                 5 | COASTAL KARNATAKA      |              2428.8 |                3083.8 | 79%        |
|                 6 | N. I. KARNATAKA        |               525.7 |                 506   | 104%       |
|                 7 | S. I. KARNATAKA        |               524.5 |                 660   | 79%        |
|                 8 | KERALA                 |              1352.2 |                2039.6 | 66%        |