Lok Sabha Question No. 3444 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2017-03-22
Subject: El Nino Effects
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: ASHOK SHANKARRAO CHAVAN, BIDYUT BARAN MAHATO, VIJAY KUMAR S.R., GAJANAN CHANDRAKANT KIRTIKAR, T. RADHAKRISHNAN, KUNWAR HARIBANSH SINGH, RAYAPATI SAMBASIVA RAO, SUDHEER GUPTA

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 3444 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, MARCH 22, 2017

## EL NINO EFFECTS

## 3444.   SHRI ASHOK SHANKARRAO CHAVAN:

SHRI BIDYUT BARAN MAHATO:

SHRI S.R. VIJAYAKUMAR:

SHRI GAJANAN KIRTIKAR:

SHRI T. RADHAKRISHNAN:

SHRI KUNWAR HARIBANSH SINGH:

SHRI RAYAPATI SAMBASIVA RAO:

SHRI SUDHEER GUPTA:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state :

- (a) the  steps  taken  to  predict  summer  forecast  accurately  during  the last three years and the current year;
- (b) whether  World  meteorological  agencies  have  expressed  concern about  the  effect  of  El  Nino  bringing  drought  like  situation  in  the country and if so, the prediction of each of the world meteorological agency in this regard;
- (c) whether  the  India  Meteorological  Department  has  carried  out  any study  on  rainfall,  during  the  current  year  and  if  so,  the  details thereof;
- (d) whether any action plan has been chalked out by the Government to tackle  adverse  impact  of  abnormal  weather  condition/less  rainfall and  issued  or  proposes  to  issue  guidelines/advisories  to  States  to prepare themselves for El Nino and heat wave effect and if so, the details thereof; and
- (e) the further steps taken to create awareness about the scarce rainfall in the country?

## ANSWER

MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) In  view  of  its  social  relevance,  since  2016,  India  Meteorological Department  (IMD),  Ministry  of  Earth  Sciences  (MoES)  has  started issuing  seasonal  forecast  outlooks  of  summer  temperatures.  In addition, IMD also issues heat wave alerts and warnings for 5-7 days and outlook for subsequent 7 days.

For the Hot Weather Season (March to May) of 2017, an outlook was issued  on  28 th   February  ,2017  which  suggests  that  above  normal temperatures up to 1.0 o  C are likely to prevail over all meteorological sub-divisions  of  the  country  except  over  northwest  India  where temperatures are likely to be more than 1.0º C above normal.

- (b) As  per  the  global  El  Niño  forecast    issued  in  early  March  2017, chances of the occurrence of El Niño exists after  August.

World Meteorological Agencies have indicated possibility of El Nino conditions to develop over Pacific later this year.  But, none of these agencies  have  mentioned  about  its  negative  impact  on  the  Indian monsoon rainfall this year. According to various studies, there is no one to one relation between these two events.

- (c) IMD  is  working  on  preparing  the  forecast  for  the  2017  southwest monsoon  rainfall.    The  first  stage  forecast  for  the  same  will  be issued  by  middle  of  April,  2017  as  it  is  being  done  in  the  previous years.
- (d-e) IMD is continuously monitoring the SST changes in Pacific and Indian Oceans  and  also  prepares  their  forecast  and  the  same  is  being issued as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin every month, which is provided to the users through IMD, Pune website.

IMD will issue its first stage forecast in April with regular updates. The State Meteorological Centres of IMD in association with various State  Governments  have  been  closely  coordinating  in  issuing  heat wave alerts so as to minimize the public exposure and to provide due assistance  to  the  vulnerable  people  (Senior  citizens  and  children) from the sun stroke related incidences. Efforts of IMD are supported by expanding the outreach of heat wave alerts by State Government agencies through print/visual media and others civil society organization.

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