Lok Sabha Question No. 5707 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2017-04-07
Subject: GDP
Ministry: FINANCE
Asked by: GOWDAR MALLIKARJUNAPPA SIDDESHWARA, RAJESH KUMAR DIWAKAR

- (a) whether the Government has assessed the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and if so, the details thereof during the last three years and the current year;
- (b) the details of the estimated growth rate in various sectors including agriculture, industrial, manufacturing and service sectors;
- (c) whether the Government has noted that the GDP is 7 percent even as sectoral data reflected minimal impact of demonetisation on account of a sharp rise in agricultural growth and a pickup in manufacturing sector growth and if so, the details thereof; and
- (d) whether the Indian economy is going up after demonetisation and if so, the details thereof?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE (SHRI ARJUN RAM MEGHWAL)

- (a): As per the latest figures published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product at constant market prices (real GDP) is estimated at 7.2 per cent, 7.9 per cent and 7.1 per cent respectively in 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17. The Economic Survey 2016-17 projected that the real GDP growth in 2017-18 will be in the range of 6¾ per cent to 7½ per cent.
- (b):  The  growth  rate  of  Gross  Value  Added  at  constant  basic  prices  (real  GVA)  for  agriculture  &  allied,  industry, manufacturing and services sectors during last three years are given below:
- (c): As per the quarterly estimate released by the CSO, the growth rate in the real for the third quarter (October-December quarter) of 2016-17 was 7.0 per cent. The growth of GDP in the third quarter of 2016-17 was estimated to have been boosted by a 6 per cent growth in the real GVA in agriculture & allied sectors, which is higher than the corresponding growth rates of 1.9 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively in the first and second quarters of the year. The growth rate in the real GVA of manufacturing in the third quarter of 2016-17 was 8.3 per cent, as compared the corresponding growth rates of 9.0 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively in the first and second quarters of the year.
- (d): As per the quarterly estimates brought out by the CSO, real GDP grew by 7.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent respectively in the first and second quarters of 2016-17. The real GDP growth was estimated to be 7.0 per cent in the third quarter of the year-the  period  during  which  the  demonetisation  of  high  denomination  currencies  occurred.  On  the  basis  of  the estimates of national income for first three quarters of 2016-17 and the second advance estimates for 2016-17 by the CSO, the implied growth of real GDP for the fourth quarter would be robust at 7.0 per cent.

| Table 1: Growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices (per cent)                                             | Table 1: Growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices (per cent)                                             | Table 1: Growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices (per cent)                                             | Table 1: Growth rate of GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices (per cent)                                             |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| Sectors                                                                                                               | 2014-15 *                                                                                                             | 2015-16 #                                                                                                             | 2016-17 $                                                                                                             |
| Agriculture & allied                                                                                                  | (-) 0.3                                                                                                               | 0.8                                                                                                                   | 4.4                                                                                                                   |
| Industry                                                                                                              | 6.9                                                                                                                   | 8.2                                                                                                                   | 5.8                                                                                                                   |
| Manufacturing                                                                                                         | 7.5                                                                                                                   | 10.6                                                                                                                  | 7.7                                                                                                                   |
| Services                                                                                                              | 9.5                                                                                                                   | 9.8                                                                                                                   | 7.9                                                                                                                   |
| GVA at Basic Prices                                                                                                   | 6.9                                                                                                                   | 7.8                                                                                                                   | 6.7                                                                                                                   |
| Source: Central Statistics Office, *:Second Revised Estimates, #: First Revised estimates, $:Second Advance Estimates | Source: Central Statistics Office, *:Second Revised Estimates, #: First Revised estimates, $:Second Advance Estimates | Source: Central Statistics Office, *:Second Revised Estimates, #: First Revised estimates, $:Second Advance Estimates | Source: Central Statistics Office, *:Second Revised Estimates, #: First Revised estimates, $:Second Advance Estimates |

*****