Lok Sabha Question No. 660 (UNSTARRED), answered on 2017-07-19
Subject: Monsoon Forecast
Ministry: EARTH SCIENCES
Asked by: T. RADHAKRISHNAN, BIDYUT BARAN MAHATO, GAJANAN CHANDRAKANT KIRTIKAR, S.P. MUDDAHANUMEGOWDA, VIJAY KUMAR S.R., SUDHEER GUPTA, HUKUM SINGH

## GOVERNMENT OF INDIA MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

## LOK SABHA

## UNSTARRED QUESTION No. 660 TO BE ANSWERED ON WEDNESDAY, JULY 19, 2017

## MONSOON FORECAST

## 660.  SHRI.T. RADHAKRISHNAN:

SHRI.BIDYUT BARAN MAHATO:

SHRI.GAJANAN KIRTIKAR:

SHRI. S.P. MUDDAHANUME GOWDA:

SHRI.S.R. VIJAYAKUMAR:

SHRI.SUDHEER GUPTA:

SHRI.HUKUM SINGH:

Will the Minister of EARTH SCIENCES be pleased to state:

- (a) whether Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above normal monsoon and threat of El-Nino phenomenon during the current season and if so, the details thereof, region-wise;
- (b) whether  the  Government  is  aware  that  the  several  foreign  agencies including  Japanese  Meteorological  Department  have  predicted  weak monsoon during June to August and if so, the details thereof and the reaction of the Government thereto. Agency-wise;
- (c) whether  average  error  in  IMD's  monsoon  forecasts  has  come  down during each of the last three years and if so, the details thereof;
- (d) the measures taken/being taken by the Government to update the IMD system as well as to avoid inaccurate predictions;
- (e) whether  IMD  has  also  warned  on  heavy  to  very  heavy  rains  in  some parts of the country and if so, the details thereof; and
- (f) the details of the Government preparedness to face such a situation?

## ANSWER

## MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND

## MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES (SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

- (a) No  Madam.  India  Meteorological  Department  (IMD)  has  not  predicted above  normal  monsoon  rainfall  for  2017.  In  the  first  stage  forecast issued  on  18 th   April  as  well  as  second  stage  forecast  issued  on  6th June IMD had predicted normal rainfall (96% to 104%)  over the country as a whole.

In  the  June forecast, IMD had clearly indicated that El-Nino Southern Oscillation  (ENSO)  neutral  conditions  are  most  likely  till  the  end  of 2017.

- (b) Yes  Madam.  IMD  keeps  track  of  forecasts  issued  by  various  foreign climate agencies including that of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Inferences  derived  from  forecasts  from  various  centers  for  the  3 months  periods  of  June,  July  &  August  (JJA)  and  July,  August  & September (JAS) are given in Annexure-I.  The forecasts were issued in April/May 2017. JMA predicted below normal rainfall over some parts of south  Peninsula,  neighboring  central  India  and  northwest  India  and normal  rainfall  over  the  remaining  areas  for  June,  July  and  August months.
- (c) Yes  Madam,  there  has  been  noticeable  improvement  in  the  IMD seasonal forecast for the southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country  as  a  whole.  The  average  absolute  error  (difference  between forecast and actual rainfall) during the last 3 years (2014 -2016) was 5.3% of Long Period Average (LPA) compared to the average absolute error  of  6.97%  of  LPA  during  2007-2013.  In  2015,  IMD  correctly predicted the deficient monsoon.
- (d) Under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, the Indian Institute of Tropical  Meteorology  (IITM),  Pune,  Indian  National  Centre  for  Ocean Information  Services  (INCOIS),  Hyderabad  and  National  Centre  for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA have embarked upon to build a state-of-the-art coupled ocean atmospheric model for i) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time  scale  (11  days  to  one  season)  and  ii)  improved  prediction  of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 10 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of India Meteorological Department (IMD).

In order to overcome the limitations of the statistical models used so far, the above dynamical coupled ocean-atmospheric model framework is  put  under  exhaustive  performance  evaluation  under  the  National Monsoon Mission.  This state of the art dynamical prediction system was  implemented  for  generating  operational  forecasts  in  2017  by Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

- (e-f) India  Meteorological  Department  provides  necessary  warnings  for areas  which  are  likely  to  receive  heavy/very  heavy/extremely  heavy rainfall for 3 days in advance with two days outlook. The warnings are being  provided  on  daily  basis  for  expected  heavy  rainfall  events  in meteorological  sub-division  scale  by  National  Weather  Forecasting Centre  (NWFC)  at  New  Delhi  and  in  district  scale  by  the  state Meteorological  centres  and  Regional  Meteorological  Centres.  The meteorological  sub-divisions  under  warning  are  assigned  colour  code (yellow, orange, red) for the purpose of disaster management and the same  is  updated  four  times  in  a  day  by  NWFC,  New  Delhi.  These warnings  are  disseminated  by  email/fax  to  disaster  management agencies  at  national  and  state  level  upto  districts  and  also  to  press and  electronic  media.  These  warnings  are  made  available  in  IMD website  also  for  the  information  of  all  concerned  including  general public.

Special forecasts are also issued along with press release in case of expected  heavy  rainfall  events.    For  example  such  special  warnings were issued  for  Assam  and  other  north  eastern  states  in  connection with the recent flood and landslide over the region.

Special  forecasts  are  also  issued  for  Char  Dham  Yatra,  Amarnath Yatra, Kailash Mansorovar Yatra etc. to the concerned authorities. The same are also being updated in the IMD website on regular basis during the yatra period.

## Annexure-I

## Seasonal forecasts from various climate centers for the 2017 southwest monsoon season.

|   S. No | Global Centre                                                  | Model used                           | Inference for 2017 monsoon rainfall                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        |
|---------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|       1 | Met Office, UK                                                 | Glo Sea 5                            | JJA & JAS (May 2017): Normal to above normal rainfall over most parts of the country                                                                                                                                                                                       |
|       2 | ECMWF, UK                                                      | ECMWF                                | JJA & JAS (May 2017): Below normal rainfall over some parts of northwest India and northeast India. Normal to above normal rainfall is most likely over remaining areas.                                                                                                   |
|       2 | ECMWF, UK                                                      | EUROSIP MME of 4 Coupled Models:     | JJA & JAS (May 2017): Below normal rainfall over some parts of northwest India and northeast India. Normal rainfall is most likely over remaining areas.                                                                                                                   |
|       3 | WMO LC- LRF MME, South Korea                                   | AGCM and CGCM Forecasts from 11 GPCs | JJAS (May 2017): Below normal rainfall along the Himalayas and neighboring plains. Normal rainfall is most likely over remaining areas.                                                                                                                                    |
|       4 | Internation al Research Institute for Climate and Society, USA | 7 Models (AGCM & CGCM)               | JJA &JAS (May 2017): Above normal rainfall over some parts of central India. Below normal to normal rainfall is most likely over remaining areas.                                                                                                                          |
|       5 | APEC Climate Centre, South Korea                               | 15 Models from the APEC region       | JJA and Sep (May 2017): Above normal rainfall is most likely over northwest India, neighboring central India and western parts of Peninsular India. Below normal rainfall is mostly likely over NE India. Climatological probabilities over remaining parts of the country |
|       6 | Japan Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology          | Coupled Model                        | JJA (May 2017): Above normal rainfall is most likely over southernmost parts of Peninsula, east coast and some parts of northeast India. Below normal to normal rainfall is likely over remaining areas.                                                                   |

*Initial conditions used for the forecast is given in bracket.

|   7 | NWS/NCEP/ CPC                 | CFSv2                                             | JJAS (May 2017): Below normal rainfall is likely over some parts along the Himalayas and neighbouring plains. Above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of central India. Normal rainfall is likely over remaining areas. All India season rainfall is likely to be normal (105 % of LPMA).   |
|-----|-------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
|   8 | ESSIC, University of Maryland | Empirical model based on antecedent SST (HadISST) | JJAS: GPCC based forecast April forecast: 97% of LPA May forecast: 97% of LPA                                                                                                                                                                                                                       |
|   9 | Japan Meteorologi cal Agency  | Coupled Model                                     | JJA (April 2017): Below normal rainfall over some parts of south Peninsula, neighboring central India and northwest India. Normal rainfall is likely over remaining areas.                                                                                                                          |