Kusanthura-Maŵiro

**Kusanthura-Maŵiro** (kufuma ku ChiGerman: **',  "kulongosora [[State (polity)|boma]], la charu") ni kafukufuku uyo wakukhwaskana na kuwunjika, kwendeska, kusanda, kung'anamura, na kulongosora [[uthenga]]. Para tikugwiliskira ntchito Kusanthura-Maŵiro pa suzgo la sayansi, malonda, panji la umoyo wa ŵanthu, kanandi tikwamba na [[Unandi-wose]] panjiso [[kayezgero ka Kusanthura-Maŵiro]] ako katiŵazgikenge. Unandi-wose, ungaŵa vigaŵa vyakupambana pambana vya ŵanthu panji vinthu nga "ŵanthu ŵose ŵakukhala mu charu" panji "chimenyu chilichose chakuwumba khristoli". Kusanthura-Maŵiro kukuwona vyose vyakukhwaskana na umo vinthu viliri, kusazgapo ndondomeko ya kunozga ma [[statistical survey|Save]] na [[experimental design|ma kafukufuku]].

Pala uthenga wa [[chipendero]] ungatoleleka yayi, [[waKusanthura-Maŵiro]] wakutolela uthenga pakupanga makafukufuku na ma save ago ghakugwiliska ntchito [[sample (statistics)|viyezgero]]. Kutola viyezgero vyakwimilra yikuwoneseska kuti fundo zingatandazga mwa mahara kufuma ku kachiyezgero kuluta ku unandi-wose mwanthunthu. [[experimental study|Kafukufuku wakusanda]] kukukhwaska kupima vinthu ivyo vikusangika mu ndondomeko iyo yikusambizgika, kunjizgapo vinthu vinyake ivyo vikusintha vinthu ivi, na kupima vinthu vinyake ivyo vikuchitika mwakuyana na ndondomeko iyo yikapangika kuti ŵanthu ŵamanye usange vinthu ivi vyasintha vinthu ivyo vikupima. Mwakupambaniska, [[observational study|kusanda Kwakulaŵilira]] kukukhwaska kafukufuku wakuseŵeleska yayi.

Vyakudanga viŵiri mwa nthowa za Kusanthura-Maŵiro yakugwiliskika mu [[data analysis|kusanda uthenga]]: [[descriptive statistics|Kusanthura-Maŵiro kwakulongosoleka]], Ivyo vikuyowoya mwakudumura ivyo vyafuma mu viyezgero kugwiriska [[Index (statistics)|maindekse]] nthe [[mean|tikatikati]] panji [[standard deviation|yisezgo yakukhazikika]], na [[statistical inference|Kusanthura-Maŵiro mwa fundo]], izo zikufunya fundo kufuma pa uthenga uwo ukupambanangapambananga (nthe, vyakubekeka mwautesi, upambano wa viyezgero). Kusanthura-Maŵiro ghakulongosoleka kanandi ghakukhwaska magulu yaŵiri ya maunenesko gha chigaŵo (chiyezgero panji unandi-wose): ''[[central tendency|uzgoloŵezgi wa pakati]]'' (pangi malo) uikukhumba kulongora umo vinthu viliri pakatikati panji umo vikuŵira, apo kusakatuka (panji kuti kusinthasintha) kukulongora umo ŵanthu ŵakufumira pakati pa vinthu. Fundo zakuroska mu [[mathematical statistics|Kusanthura-Maŵiro musamuzi]] zikupangika pa chizengero cha [[probability theory|fundo ya mayero]], iyi yikulongosora umo vinthu vikuchitikira mwamwaŵi.

Kanandi ndondomeko ya Kusanthura-Maŵiro kukukhwaska kutolela kwa uthenga kulazgiska ku [[statistical hypothesis testing|kuyezga kwa ubali]] pakati pa vibwayila viŵiri vya Kusanthura-Maŵiro, panji vibwayila vyauthenga na mauthenga ghakuwumbika na ŵanthu kufuma ku chiyezgero chakuwumbika mwausuma. Chiloskero chikupelekeka kulongosola ubali wa Kusanthura-Maŵiro pakati pa vibwayila viŵiri vyauthenga, ndipo this is compared as an [[alternative hypothesis|alternative]] to an idealized [[null hypothesis]] of no relationship between two data sets. Rejecting or disproving the null hypothesis is done using statistical tests that quantify the sense in which the null can be proven false, given the data that are used in the test. Working from a null hypothesis, two basic forms of error are recognized: [[Type I error]]s (null hypothesis is falsely rejected giving a "false positive") and [[Type II error]]s (null hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual relationship between populations is missed giving a "false negative").

Statistical measurement processes are also prone to error in regards to the data that they generate. Many of these errors are classified as random (noise) or systematic ([[Bias (statistics)|bias]]), but other types of errors (e.g., blunder, such as when an analyst reports incorrect units) can also occur. The presence of [[missing data]] or [[censoring (statistics)|censoring]] may result in biased estimates and specific techniques have been developed to address these problems.



== Vyakudanga ==


Statistics is a mathematical body of science that pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of [[data]], or as a branch of [[mathematics]]. Some consider statistics to be a distinct [[mathematical sciences|mathematical science]] rather than a branch of mathematics. While many scientific investigations make use of data, statistics is concerned with the use of data in the context of uncertainty and decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

In applying statistics to a problem, it is common practice to start with a [[statistical population|population]] or process to be studied. Populations can be diverse topics, such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Ideally, statisticians compile data about the entire population (an operation called a [[census]]). This may be organized by governmental statistical institutes. ''[[Descriptive statistics]]'' can be used to summarize the population data. Numerical descriptors include [[mean]] and [[standard deviation]] for [[Continuous probability distribution|continuous data]] (like income), while frequency and percentage are more useful in terms of describing [[categorical data]] (like education).

When a census is not feasible, a chosen subset of the population called a [[sampling (statistics)|sample]] is studied. Once a sample that is representative of the population is determined, data is collected for the sample members in an observational or [[experiment]]al setting. Again, descriptive statistics can be used to summarize the sample data. However, drawing the sample contains an element of randomness; hence, the numerical descriptors from the sample are also prone to uncertainty. To draw meaningful conclusions about the entire population, ''[[inferential statistics]]'' are needed. It uses patterns in the sample data to draw inferences about the population represented while accounting for randomness. These inferences may take the form of answering yes/no questions about the data ([[hypothesis testing]]), estimating numerical characteristics of the data ([[Estimation theory|estimation]]), describing [[Association (statistics)|associations]] within the data ([[correlation and dependence|correlation]]), and modeling relationships within the data (for example, using [[regression analysis]]). Inference can extend to the [[forecasting]], [[prediction]], and estimation of unobserved values either in or associated with the population being studied. It can include [[extrapolation]] and [[interpolation]] of [[time series]] or [[spatial statistics|spatial data]], as well as [[data mining]].

===Mathematical statistics===


Mathematical statistics is the application of [[mathematics]] to statistics. Mathematical techniques used for this include [[mathematical analysis]], [[linear algebra]], [[stochastic analysis]], [[differential equations]], and [[measure-theoretic probability theory]].

== Mbiri ==


Formal discussions on inference date back to [[Mathematics in medieval Islam|Arab mathematicians]] and [[cryptographers]], during the [[Islamic Golden Age]] between the 8th and 13th centuries. [[Al-Khalil ibn Ahmad al-Farahidi|Al-Khalil]] (717–786) wrote the ''Book of Cryptographic Messages'', which contains one of the first uses of [[permutation]]s and [[combination]]s, to list all possible [[Arabic language|Arabic]] words with and without vowels. [[Al-Kindi|Al-Kindi's]] ''Manuscript on Deciphering Cryptographic Messages'' gave a detailed description of how to use [[frequency analysis]] to decipher [[encrypted]] messages, providing an early example of [[statistical inference]] for [[Code|decoding]]. [[Ibn Adlan]] (1187–1268) later made an important contribution on the use of [[sample size]] in frequency analysis.

The term 'statistic' was introduced by the Italian scholar [[Girolamo Ghilini]] in 1589 with reference to this science. The earliest writing containing statistics in Europe dates back to 1663, with the publication of ''[[Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality]]'' by [[John Graunt]]. Early applications of statistical thinking revolved around the needs of states to base policy on demographic and economic data, hence its [[History of statistics#Etymology|''stat-'' etymology]]. The scope of the discipline of statistics broadened in the early 19th century to include the collection and analysis of data in general. Today, statistics is widely employed in government, business, and natural and social sciences.

The mathematical foundations of statistics developed from discussions concerning [[Game of chance|games of chance]] among mathematicians such as [[Gerolamo Cardano]], [[Blaise Pascal]], [[Pierre de Fermat]], and [[Christiaan Huygens]]. Although the idea of probability was already examined in ancient and medieval law and philosophy (such as the work of [[Juan Caramuel]]), [[probability theory]] as a mathematical discipline only took shape at the very end of the 17th century, particularly in [[Jacob Bernoulli|Jacob Bernoulli's]] posthumous work ''[[Ars Conjectandi]]''. This was the first book where the realm of games of chance and the realm of the probable (which concerned opinion, evidence, and argument) were combined and submitted to mathematical analysis. The [[method of least squares]] was first described by [[Adrien-Marie Legendre]] in 1805, though [[Carl Friedrich Gauss]] presumably made use of it a decade earlier in 1795.



The modern field of statistics emerged in the late 19th and early 20th century in three stages. The first wave, at the turn of the century, was led by the work of [[Francis Galton]] and [[Karl Pearson]], who transformed statistics into a rigorous mathematical discipline used for analysis, not just in science, but in industry and politics as well. Galton's contributions included introducing the concepts of [[standard deviation]], [[correlation]], [[regression analysis]] and the application of these methods to the study of the variety of human characteristics—height, weight and eyelash length among others. Pearson developed the [[Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient]], defined as a product-moment, the [[Method of moments (statistics)|method of moments]] for the fitting of distributions to samples and the [[Pearson distribution]], among many other things. Galton and Pearson founded ''[[Biometrika]]'' as the first journal of mathematical statistics and [[biostatistics]] (then called biometry), and the latter founded the world's first university statistics department at [[University College London]].

The second wave of the 1910s and 20s was initiated by [[William Sealy Gosset]], and reached its culmination in the insights of [[Ronald Fisher]], who wrote the textbooks that were to define the academic discipline in universities around the world. Fisher's most important publications were his 1918 seminal paper ''[[The Correlation between Relatives on the Supposition of Mendelian Inheritance]]'' (which was the first to use the statistical term, [[variance]]), his classic 1925 work ''[[Statistical Methods for Research Workers]]'' and his 1935 ''[[The Design of Experiments]]'', where he developed rigorous [[design of experiments]] models. He originated the concepts of [[sufficiency (statistics)|sufficiency]], [[ancillary statistic]]s, [[linear discriminant analysis|Fisher's linear discriminator]] and [[Fisher information]]. He also coined the term [[null hypothesis]] during the [[Lady tasting tea]] experiment, which "is never proved or established, but is possibly disproved, in the course of experimentation". In his 1930 book ''[[The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection]]'', he applied statistics to various [[biology|biological]] concepts such as [[Fisher's principle]] (which [[A. W. F. Edwards]] called "probably the most celebrated argument in [[evolutionary biology]]") and [[Fisherian runaway]], a concept in [[sexual selection]] about a positive feedback runaway effect found in [[evolution]].

The final wave, which mainly saw the refinement and expansion of earlier developments, emerged from the collaborative work between [[Egon Pearson]] and [[Jerzy Neyman]] in the 1930s. They introduced the concepts of "[[Type I and type II errors|Type II]]" error, [[power of a test]] and [[confidence interval]]s. Jerzy Neyman in 1934 showed that stratified random sampling was in general a better method of estimation than purposive (quota) sampling.

Today, statistical methods are applied in all fields that involve decision making, for making accurate inferences from a collated body of data and for making decisions in the face of uncertainty based on statistical methodology. The use of modern [[computer]]s has expedited large-scale statistical computations and has also made possible new methods that are impractical to perform manually. Statistics continues to be an area of active research, for example on the problem of how to analyze [[big data]].

==Mauthenga gha Kusanthura-Maŵiro==


=== Kutolela uthenga ===

====Kutolela Viyezgero====
When full census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect sample data by developing specific [[design of experiments|experiment designs]] and [[survey sampling|survey samples]]. Statistics itself also provides tools for prediction and forecasting through [[statistical model]]s.

To use a sample as a guide to an entire population, it is important that it truly represents the overall population. Representative [[sampling (statistics)|sampling]] assures that inferences and conclusions can safely extend from the sample to the population as a whole. A major problem lies in determining the extent that the sample chosen is actually representative. Statistics offers methods to estimate and correct for any bias within the sample and data collection procedures. There are also methods of experimental design that can lessen these issues at the outset of a study, strengthening its capability to discern truths about the population.

Sampling theory is part of the [[mathematics|mathematical discipline]] of [[probability theory]]. Probability is used in [[statistical theory|mathematical statistics]] to study the [[sampling distribution]]s of [[sample statistic]]s and, more generally, the properties of [[statistical decision theory|statistical procedures]]. The use of any statistical method is valid when the system or population under consideration satisfies the assumptions of the method. The difference in point of view between classic probability theory and sampling theory is, roughly, that probability theory starts from the given parameters of a total population to [[deductive reasoning|deduce]] probabilities that pertain to samples. Statistical inference, however, moves in the opposite direction—[[inductive reasoning|inductively inferring]] from samples to the parameters of a larger or total population.

====Experimental and observational studies====
A common goal for a statistical research project is to investigate [[causality]], and in particular to draw a conclusion on the effect of changes in the values of predictors or [[Dependent and independent variables|independent variables on dependent variables]]. There are two major types of causal statistical studies: [[Experiment|experimental studies]] and [[Observational study|observational studies]]. In both types of studies, the effect of differences of an independent variable (or variables) on the behavior of the dependent variable are observed. The difference between the two types lies in how the study is actually conducted. Each can be very effective.
An experimental study involves taking measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking additional measurements using the same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified the values of the measurements. In contrast, an observational study does not involve [[Scientific control|experimental manipulation]]. Instead, data are gathered and correlations between predictors and response are investigated. While the tools of data analysis work best on data from [[Randomized controlled trial|randomized studies]], they are also applied to other kinds of data—like [[natural experiment]]s and [[Observational study|observational studies]]—for which a statistician would use a modified, more structured estimation method (e.g., [[Difference in differences|Difference in differences estimation]] and [[instrumental variable]]s, among many others) that produce [[consistent estimator]]s.

=====Vifukufuku=====
The basic steps of a statistical experiment are:
# Planning the research, including finding the number of replicates of the study, using the following information:  preliminary estimates regarding the size of [[Average treatment effect|treatment effects]], [[alternative hypothesis|alternative hypotheses]], and the estimated [[experimental error|experimental variability]]. Consideration of the selection of experimental subjects and the ethics of research is necessary. Statisticians recommend that experiments compare (at least) one new treatment with a standard treatment or control, to allow an unbiased estimate of the difference in treatment effects.
# [[Design of experiments]], using [[blocking (statistics)|blocking]] to reduce the influence of [[confounding variable]]s, and [[randomized assignment]] of treatments to subjects to allow [[bias of an estimator|unbiased estimates]] of treatment effects and experimental error. At this stage, the experimenters and statisticians write the ''[[protocol (natural sciences)|experimental protocol]]'' that will guide the performance of the experiment and which specifies the'' primary analysis'' of the experimental data.
# Performing the experiment following the [[Protocol (natural sciences)|experimental protocol]] and [[analysis of variance|analyzing the data]] following the experimental protocol.
# Further examining the data set in secondary analyses, to suggest new hypotheses for future study.
# Documenting and presenting the results of the study.

Experiments on human behavior have special concerns. The famous [[Hawthorne study]] examined changes to the working environment at the Hawthorne plant of the [[Western Electric Company]]. The researchers were interested in determining whether increased illumination would increase the productivity of the [[assembly line]] workers. The researchers first measured the productivity in the plant, then modified the illumination in an area of the plant and checked if the changes in illumination affected productivity. It turned out that productivity indeed improved (under the experimental conditions). However, the study is heavily criticized today for errors in experimental procedures, specifically for the lack of a [[control group]] and [[double-blind|blindness]]. The [[Hawthorne effect]] refers to finding that an outcome (in this case, worker productivity) changed due to observation itself. Those in the Hawthorne study became more productive not because the lighting was changed but because they were being observed.

=====Kuŵazga Kwakulaŵilila=====
An example of an observational study is one that explores the association between smoking and lung cancer. This type of study typically uses a survey to collect observations about the area of interest and then performs statistical analysis. In this case, the researchers would collect observations of both smokers and non-smokers, perhaps through a [[cohort study]], and then look for the number of cases of lung cancer in each group. A [[case-control study]] is another type of observational study in which people with and without the outcome of interest (e.g. lung cancer) are invited to participate and their exposure histories are collected.

===Mitundu ya uthenga===


Various attempts have been made to produce a taxonomy of [[level of measurement|levels of measurement]]. The psychophysicist [[Stanley Smith Stevens]] defined nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio scales. Nominal measurements do not have meaningful rank order among values, and permit any one-to-one (injective) transformation. Ordinal measurements have imprecise differences between consecutive values, but have a meaningful order to those values, and permit any order-preserving transformation. Interval measurements have meaningful distances between measurements defined, but the zero value is arbitrary (as in the case with [[longitude]] and [[temperature]] measurements in [[Celsius]] or [[Fahrenheit]]), and permit any linear transformation. Ratio measurements have both a meaningful zero value and the distances between different measurements defined, and permit any rescaling transformation.

Because variables conforming only to nominal or ordinal measurements cannot be reasonably measured numerically, sometimes they are grouped together as [[categorical variable]]s, whereas ratio and interval measurements are grouped together as [[Variable (mathematics)#Applied statistics|quantitative variables]], which can be either [[Probability distribution#Discrete probability distribution|discrete]] or [[Probability distribution#Continuous probability distribution|continuous]], due to their numerical nature. Such distinctions can often be loosely correlated with [[data type]] in computer science, in that dichotomous categorical variables may be represented with the [[Boolean data type]], polytomous categorical variables with arbitrarily assigned [[integer]]s in the [[integer (computer science)|integral data type]], and continuous variables with the [[real data type]] involving [[floating-point arithmetic]]. But the mapping of computer science data types to statistical data types depends on which categorization of the latter is being implemented.

Other categorizations have been proposed. For example, Mosteller and Tukey (1977) distinguished grades, ranks, counted fractions, counts, amounts, and balances. Nelder (1990) described continuous counts, continuous ratios, count ratios, and categorical modes of data. (See also: Chrisman (1998), van den Berg (1991).)

The issue of whether or not it is appropriate to apply different kinds of statistical methods to data obtained from different kinds of measurement procedures is complicated by issues concerning the transformation of variables and the precise interpretation of research questions. "The relationship between the data and what they describe merely reflects the fact that certain kinds of statistical statements may have truth values which are not invariant under some transformations. Whether or not a transformation is sensible to contemplate depends on the question one is trying to answer."

== Nthowa ==


=== Descriptive statistics ===


A **descriptive statistic** (in the [[count noun]] sense) is a [[summary statistic]] that quantitatively describes or summarizes features of a collection of [[information]], while **descriptive statistics** in the [[mass noun]] sense is the process of using and analyzing those statistics. Descriptive statistics is distinguished from [[statistical inference|inferential statistics]] (or inductive statistics), in that descriptive statistics aims to summarize a [[Sample (statistics)|sample]], rather than use the data to learn about the [[statistical population|population]] that the sample of data is thought to represent.

=== Inferential statistics ===


**Statistical inference** is the process of using [[data analysis]] to deduce properties of an underlying [[probability distribution]]. Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a [[Statistical population|population]], for example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates.  It is assumed that the observed data set is [[Sampling (statistics)|sampled]] from a larger population. Inferential statistics can be contrasted with [[descriptive statistics]]. Descriptive statistics is solely concerned with properties of the observed data, and it does not rest on the assumption that the data come from a larger population.

====Terminology and theory of inferential statistics====
=====Statistics, estimators and pivotal quantities=====
Consider [[Independent identically distributed|independent identically distributed (IID) random variables]] with a given [[probability distribution]]: standard [[statistical inference]] and [[estimation theory]] defines a [[random sample]] as the [[random vector]] given by the [[column vector]] of these IID variables. The [[Statistical population|population]] being examined is described by a probability distribution that may have unknown parameters.

A statistic is a random variable that is a function of the random sample, but . The probability distribution of the statistic, though, may have unknown parameters. Consider now a function of the unknown parameter: an [[estimator]] is a statistic used to estimate such function. Commonly used estimators include [[sample mean]], unbiased [[sample variance]] and [[sample covariance]].

A random variable that is a function of the random sample and of the unknown parameter, but whose probability distribution ''does not depend on the unknown parameter'' is called a [[pivotal quantity]] or pivot. Widely used pivots include the [[z-score]], the [[Chi-squared distribution#Applications|chi square statistic]] and Student's [[Student's t-distribution#How the t-distribution arises|t-value]].

Between two estimators of a given parameter, the one with lower [[mean squared error]] is said to be more [[Efficient estimator|efficient]]. Furthermore, an estimator is said to be [[Unbiased estimator|unbiased]] if its [[expected value]] is equal to the [[true value]] of the unknown parameter being estimated, and asymptotically unbiased if its expected value converges at the [[Limit (mathematics)|limit]] to the true value of such parameter.

Other desirable properties for estimators include: [[UMVUE]] estimators that have the lowest variance for all possible values of the parameter to be estimated (this is usually an easier property to verify than efficiency) and [[consistent estimator]]s which [[converges in probability]] to the true value of such parameter.

This still leaves the question of how to obtain estimators in a given situation and carry the computation, several methods have been proposed: the [[method of moments (statistics)|method of moments]], the [[maximum likelihood]] method, the [[least squares]] method and the more recent method of [[estimating equations]].

=====Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis=====
Interpretation of statistical information can often involve the development of a [[null hypothesis]] which is usually (but not necessarily) that no relationship exists among variables or that no change occurred over time.

The best illustration for a novice is the predicament encountered by a criminal trial. The null hypothesis, H<sub>0</sub>, asserts that the defendant is innocent, whereas the alternative hypothesis, H<sub>1</sub>, asserts that the defendant is guilty. The indictment comes because of suspicion of the guilt. The H<sub>0</sub> (status quo) stands in opposition to H<sub>1</sub> and is maintained unless H<sub>1</sub> is supported by evidence "beyond a reasonable doubt". However, "failure to reject H<sub>0</sub>" in this case does not imply innocence, but merely that the evidence was insufficient to convict. So the jury does not necessarily ''accept'' H<sub>0</sub> but ''fails to reject'' H<sub>0</sub>. While one can not "prove" a null hypothesis, one can test how close it is to being true with a [[Statistical power|power test]], which tests for [[type II error]]s.

What [[statisticians]] call an [[alternative hypothesis]] is simply a hypothesis that contradicts the [[null hypothesis]].

=====Error=====
Working from a [[null hypothesis]], two broad categories of error are recognized:
* [[Type I and type II errors#Type I error|Type I errors]] where the null hypothesis is falsely rejected, giving a "false positive".
* [[Type I and type II errors#Type II error|Type II errors]] where the null hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual difference between populations is missed, giving a "false negative".

[[Standard deviation]] refers to the extent to which individual observations in a sample differ from a central value, such as the sample or population mean, while [[Standard error (statistics)#Standard error of the mean|Standard error]] refers to an estimate of difference between sample mean and population mean.

A [[Errors and residuals in statistics#Introduction|statistical error]] is the amount by which an observation differs from its [[expected value]]. A [[Errors and residuals in statistics#Introduction|residual]] is the amount an observation differs from the value the estimator of the expected value assumes on a given sample (also called prediction).

[[Mean squared error]] is used for obtaining [[efficient estimators]], a widely used class of estimators. [[Root mean square error]] is simply the square root of mean squared error.



Many statistical methods seek to minimize the [[residual sum of squares]], and these are called "[[least squares|methods of least squares]]" in contrast to [[Least absolute deviations]]. The latter gives equal weight to small and big errors, while the former gives more weight to large errors. Residual sum of squares is also [[Differentiable function|differentiable]], which provides a handy property for doing [[regression analysis|regression]]. Least squares applied to [[linear regression]] is called [[ordinary least squares]] method and least squares applied to [[nonlinear regression]] is called [[non-linear least squares]]. Also in a linear regression model the non deterministic part of the model is called error term, disturbance or more simply noise. Both linear regression and non-linear regression are addressed in [[polynomial least squares]], which also describes the variance in a prediction of the dependent variable (y axis) as a function of the independent variable (x axis) and the deviations (errors, noise, disturbances) from the estimated (fitted) curve.

Measurement processes that generate statistical data are also subject to error.  Many of these errors are classified as [[Random error|random]] (noise) or [[Systematic error|systematic]] ([[bias]]), but other types of errors (e.g., blunder, such as when an analyst reports incorrect units) can also be important. The presence of [[missing data]] or [[censoring (statistics)|censoring]] may result in [[bias (statistics)|biased estimates]] and specific techniques have been developed to address these problems.

=====Interval estimation=====




Most studies only sample part of a population, so results do not fully represent the whole population. Any estimates obtained from the sample only approximate the population value. [[Confidence intervals]] allow statisticians to express how closely the sample estimate matches the true value in the whole population. Often they are expressed as 95% confidence intervals. Formally, a 95% confidence interval for a value is a range where, if the sampling and analysis were repeated under the same conditions (yielding a different dataset), the interval would include the true (population) value in 95% of all possible cases. This does ''not'' imply that the probability that the true value is in the confidence interval is 95%. From the [[frequentist inference|frequentist]] perspective, such a claim does not even make sense, as the true value is not a [[random variable]].  Either the true value is or is not within the given interval. However, it is true that, before any data are sampled and given a plan for how to construct the confidence interval, the probability is 95% that the yet-to-be-calculated interval will cover the true value: at this point, the limits of the interval are yet-to-be-observed [[random variable]]s. One approach that does yield an interval that can be interpreted as having a given probability of containing the true value is to use a [[credible interval]] from [[Bayesian statistics]]: this approach depends on a different way of [[Probability interpretations|interpreting what is meant by "probability"]], that is as a [[Bayesian probability]].

In principle confidence intervals can be symmetrical or asymmetrical. An interval can be asymmetrical because it works as lower or upper bound for a parameter (left-sided interval or right sided interval), but it can also be asymmetrical because the two sided interval is built violating symmetry around the estimate. Sometimes the bounds for a confidence interval are reached asymptotically and these are used to approximate the true bounds.

=====Significance=====


Statistics rarely give a simple Yes/No type answer to the question under analysis. Interpretation often comes down to the level of statistical significance applied to the numbers and often refers to the probability of a value accurately rejecting the null hypothesis (sometimes referred to as the [[p-value]]).



The standard approach is to test a null hypothesis against an alternative hypothesis. A [[Critical region#Definition of terms|critical region]] is the set of values of the estimator that leads to refuting the null hypothesis. The probability of type I error is therefore the probability that the estimator belongs to the critical region given that null hypothesis is true ([[statistical significance]]) and the probability of type II error is the probability that the estimator does not belong to the critical region given that the alternative hypothesis is true. The [[statistical power]] of a test is the probability that it correctly rejects the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false.

Referring to statistical significance does not necessarily mean that the overall result is significant in real world terms. For example, in a large study of a drug it may be shown that the drug has a statistically significant but very small beneficial effect, such that the drug is unlikely to help the patient noticeably.

Although in principle the acceptable level of [[statistical significance]] may be subject to debate, the [[significance level]] is the largest p-value that allows the test to reject the null hypothesis. This test is logically equivalent to saying that the p-value is the probability, assuming the null hypothesis is true, of observing a result at least as extreme as the [[test statistic]]. Therefore, the smaller the significance level, the lower the probability of committing type I error.

Some problems are usually associated with this framework (See [[Statistical hypothesis testing#Criticism|criticism of hypothesis testing]]):
* A difference that is highly statistically significant can still be of no practical significance, but it is possible to properly formulate tests to account for this. One response involves going beyond reporting only the [[significance level]] to include the [[p-value|''p''-value]] when reporting whether a hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The p-value, however, does not indicate the [[effect size|size]] or importance of the observed effect and can also seem to exaggerate the importance of minor differences in large studies. A better and increasingly common approach is to report [[confidence interval]]s. Although these are produced from the same calculations as those of hypothesis tests or ''p''-values, they describe both the size of the effect and the uncertainty surrounding it.
* Fallacy of the transposed conditional, aka [[prosecutor's fallacy]]: criticisms arise because the hypothesis testing approach forces one hypothesis (the [[null hypothesis]]) to be favored, since what is being evaluated is the probability of the observed result given the null hypothesis and not probability of the null hypothesis given the observed result. An alternative to this approach is offered by [[Bayesian inference]], although it requires establishing a [[prior probability]].
* Rejecting the null hypothesis does not automatically prove the alternative hypothesis.
* As everything in [[inferential statistics]] it relies on sample size, and therefore under [[fat tails]] p-values may be seriously mis-computed.

=====Examples=====
Some well-known statistical [[Statistical hypothesis testing|tests]] and procedures are:



===Exploratory data analysis===


**Exploratory data analysis** (**EDA*') is an approach to [[data analysis|analyzing]] [[data set]]s to summarize their main characteristics, often with visual methods. A [[statistical model]] can be used or not, but primarily EDA is for seeing what the data can tell us beyond the formal modeling or hypothesis testing task.

== Misuse ==


[[Misuse of statistics]] can produce subtle but serious errors in description and interpretation—subtle in the sense that even experienced professionals make such errors, and serious in the sense that they can lead to devastating decision errors. For instance, social policy, medical practice, and the reliability of structures like bridges all rely on the proper use of statistics.

Even when statistical techniques are correctly applied, the results can be difficult to interpret for those lacking expertise. The [[statistical significance]] of a trend in the data—which measures the extent to which a trend could be caused by random variation in the sample—may or may not agree with an intuitive sense of its significance. The set of basic statistical skills (and skepticism) that people need to deal with information in their everyday lives properly is referred to as [[statistical literacy]].

There is a general perception that statistical knowledge is all-too-frequently intentionally [[Misuse of statistics|misused]] by finding ways to interpret only the data that are favorable to the presenter. A mistrust and misunderstanding of statistics is associated with the quotation, "[[Lies, damned lies, and statistics|There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics]]". Misuse of statistics can be both inadvertent and intentional, and the book *How to Lie with Statistics*, by [[Darrell Huff]], outlines a range of considerations. In an attempt to shed light on the use and misuse of statistics, reviews of statistical techniques used in particular fields are conducted (e.g. Warne, Lazo, Ramos, and Ritter (2012)).

Ways to avoid misuse of statistics include using proper diagrams and avoiding [[Bias (statistics)|bias]]. Misuse can occur when conclusions are [[Hasty generalization|overgeneralized]] and claimed to be representative of more than they really are, often by either deliberately or unconsciously overlooking sampling bias. Bar graphs are arguably the easiest diagrams to use and understand, and they can be made either by hand or with simple computer programs. Unfortunately, most people do not look for bias or errors, so they are not noticed. Thus, people may often believe that something is true even if it is not well [[Sampling (statistics)|represented]]. To make data gathered from statistics believable and accurate, the sample taken must be representative of the whole. According to Huff, "The dependability of a sample can be destroyed by [bias]... allow yourself some degree of skepticism."

To assist in the understanding of statistics Huff proposed a series of questions to be asked in each case:
* Who says so? (Does he/she have an axe to grind?)
* How does he/she know? (Does he/she have the resources to know the facts?)
* What's missing? (Does he/she give us a complete picture?)
* Did someone change the subject? (Does he/she offer us the right answer to the wrong problem?)
* Does it make sense? (Is his/her conclusion logical and consistent with what we already know?)



===Misinterpretation: correlation===

The concept of [[correlation]] is particularly noteworthy for the potential confusion it can cause. Statistical analysis of a [[data set]] often reveals that two variables (properties) of the population under consideration tend to vary together, as if they were connected. For example, a study of annual income that also looks at age of death, might find that poor people tend to have shorter lives than affluent people. The two variables are said to be correlated; however, they may or may not be the cause of one another. The correlation phenomena could be caused by a third, previously unconsidered phenomenon, called a lurking variable or [[confounding variable]]. For this reason, there is no way to immediately infer the existence of a causal relationship between the two variables.

==Applications==
===Applied statistics, theoretical statistics and mathematical statistics===
*Applied statistics,* sometimes referred to as *Statistical science,* comprises descriptive statistics and the application of inferential statistics. *Theoretical statistics* concerns the logical arguments underlying justification of approaches to [[statistical inference]], as well as encompassing *mathematical statistics*. Mathematical statistics includes not only the manipulation of [[probability distribution]]s necessary for deriving results related to methods of estimation and inference, but also various aspects of [[computational statistics]] and the [[design of experiments]].

[[Statistical consultant]]s can help organizations and companies that do not have in-house expertise relevant to their particular questions.

===Machine learning and data mining===
[[Machine learning]] models are statistical and probabilistic models that capture patterns in the data through use of computational algorithms.

===Statistics in academia===
Statistics is applicable to a wide variety of [[academic discipline]]s, including [[Natural science|natural]] and [[social science]]s, government, and business. Business statistics applies statistical methods in [[econometrics]], [[auditing]] and production and operations, including services improvement and marketing research. A study of two journals in tropical biology found that the 12 most frequent statistical tests are: [[analysis of variance]] (ANOVA), [[chi-squared test]], [[Student's t-test]], [[linear regression]], [[Pearson’s correlation coefficient]], [[Mann-Whitney U test]], [[Kruskal-Wallis test]], [[Diversity index#Shannon index|Shannon’s diversity index]], [[Tukey's range test]], [[cluster analysis]], [[Spearman's rank correlation coefficient]] and [[principal component analysis]].

A typical statistics course covers descriptive statistics, probability, binomial and [[normal distribution]]s, test of hypotheses and confidence intervals, [[linear regression]], and correlation. Modern fundamental statistical courses for undergraduate students focus on correct test selection, results interpretation, and use of [[free statistics software]].

===Statistical computing===





The rapid and sustained increases in computing power starting from the second half of the 20th century have had a substantial impact on the practice of statistical science. Early statistical models were almost always from the class of [[linear model]]s, but powerful computers, coupled with suitable numerical [[algorithms]], caused an increased interest in [[Nonlinear regression|nonlinear models]] (such as [[Artificial neural network|neural networks]]) as well as the creation of new types, such as [[generalized linear model]]s and [[multilevel model]]s.

Increased computing power has also led to the growing popularity of computationally intensive methods based on [[Resampling (statistics)|resampling]], such as [[permutation test]]s and the [[Bootstrapping (statistics)|bootstrap]], while techniques such as [[Gibbs sampling]] have made use of [[Bayesian model]]s more feasible. The computer revolution has implications for the future of statistics with a new emphasis on "experimental" and "empirical" statistics. A large number of both general and special purpose [[List of statistical packages|statistical software]] are now available. Examples of available software capable of complex statistical computation include programs such as [[Mathematica]], [[SAS (software)|SAS]], [[SPSS]], and [[R (programming language)|R]].

===Business statistics===
In business, "statistics" is a widely used [[Management#Nature of work|management-]] and [[decision support]] tool. It is particularly applied in [[financial management]], [[marketing management]], and [[Manufacturing process management|production]], [[operations management for services|services]] and [[operations management]] . Statistics is also heavily used in [[management accounting]] and [[auditing]]. The discipline of [[Management Science]] formalizes the use of statistics, and other mathematics, in business. ([[Econometrics]] is the application of statistical methods to [[economic data]] in order to give empirical content to [[economic theory|economic relationships]].)

A typical "Business Statistics" course is intended for [[Business education#Undergraduate education|business majors]], and covers  [[descriptive statistics]] ([[Data collection|collection]], description, analysis, and summary of data), probability (typically the [[binomial distribution|binomial]] and [[normal distribution]]s), test of hypotheses and confidence intervals, [[linear regression]], and correlation; (follow-on) courses may include [[forecasting]], [[time series]], [[decision trees]], [[multiple linear regression]], and other topics from [[business analytics]] more generally. See also . [[Professional certification in financial services|Professional certification programs]], such as the [[Chartered Financial Analyst|CFA]], often include topics in statistics.

===Statistics applied to mathematics or the arts===
Traditionally, statistics was concerned with drawing inferences using a semi-standardized methodology that was "required learning" in most sciences. This tradition has changed with the use of statistics in non-inferential contexts. What was once considered a dry subject, taken in many fields as a degree-requirement, is now viewed enthusiastically. Initially derided by some mathematical purists, it is now considered essential methodology in certain areas.
* In [[number theory]], [[scatter plot]]s of data generated by a distribution function may be transformed with familiar tools used in statistics to reveal underlying patterns, which may then lead to hypotheses.
* Predictive methods of statistics in [[forecasting]] combining [[chaos theory]] and [[fractal geometry]] can be used to create video works.
* The [[process art]] of [[Jackson Pollock]] relied on artistic experiments whereby underlying distributions in nature were artistically revealed. With the advent of computers, statistical methods were applied to formalize such distribution-driven natural processes to make and analyze moving video art.
* Methods of statistics may be used predicatively in [[performance art]], as in a card trick based on a [[Markov process]] that only works some of the time, the occasion of which can be predicted using statistical methodology.
* Statistics can be used to predicatively create art, as in the statistical or [[stochastic music]] invented by [[Iannis Xenakis]], where the music is performance-specific. Though this type of artistry does not always come out as expected, it does behave in ways that are predictable and tunable using statistics.

== Specialized disciplines ==


Statistical techniques are used in a wide range of types of scientific and social research, including: [[biostatistics]], [[computational biology]], [[computational sociology]], [[network biology]], [[social science]], [[sociology]] and [[social research]]. Some fields of inquiry use applied statistics so extensively that they have [[specialized terminology]]. These disciplines include:



In addition, there are particular types of statistical analysis that have also developed their own specialised terminology and methodology:


Statistics form a key basis tool in business and manufacturing as well. It is used to understand measurement systems variability, control processes (as in [[statistical process control]] or SPC), for summarizing data, and to make data-driven decisions. In these roles, it is a key tool, and perhaps the only reliable tool.

== See also ==





;Foundations and major areas of statistics


== References ==


==Further reading==
* Lydia Denworth, "A Significant Problem: Standard scientific methods are under fire. Will anything change?", *Scientific American*, vol. 321, no. 4 (October 2019), pp.&nbsp;62–67. "The use of [[p value|*p* values]] for nearly a century [since 1925] to determine [[statistical significance]] of [[experiment]]al results has contributed to an illusion of [[certainty]] and [to] [[Replication crisis|reproducibility crises]] in many [[science|scientific fields]]. There is growing determination to reform statistical analysis... Some [researchers] suggest changing statistical methods, whereas others would do away with a threshold for defining "significant" results." (p.&nbsp;63.)
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* [https://www.openintro.org/stat/textbook.php?stat_book=os *OpenIntro Statistics*] , 3rd edition by Diez, Barr, and Cetinkaya-Rundel
* Stephen Jones, 2010. [https://web.archive.org/web/20170215092220/https://books.google.com/books?id=mywdBQAAQBAJ *Statistics in Psychology: Explanations without Equations*]. Palgrave Macmillan. .
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==External links==

* (Electronic Version): TIBCO Software Inc. (2020). [https://docs.tibco.com/data-science/textbook Data Science Textbook].
* [http://onlinestatbook.com/index.html *Online Statistics Education: An Interactive Multimedia Course of Study'']. Developed by Rice University (Lead Developer), University of Houston Clear Lake, Tufts University, and National Science Foundation.
* UCLA Statistical Computing Resources (archived 17 July 2006)
* Philosophy of Statistics from the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy