Zaben tarayya na Jamus na 2013

An gudanar da Zaben tarayya a ranar 22 ga watan Satumba don zabar mambobin Bundestag na 18 na Jamus.  Dukkanin kujeru 598 ne a Bundestag, tare da kujeru 33 da aka ƙaddara daga baya. Ƙungiyar Demokradiyyar Kirista ta Jamus / Kungiyar Jama'a ta Kirista ta Bavaria (CDU / CSU) ta shugaban kasar Angela Merkel ta lashe mafi kyawun sakamako tun daga 1990 tare da kusan kashi 42% na kuri'un da kusan kashi 50% na kujerun, kawai biyar ga mafi rinjaye. Jam'iyyar Free Democratic Party (FDP) mai mulki ta kasa cika ƙimar kuri'un 5% a cikin abin da ya fi munin nunawa a zaben tarayya a lokacin, zaben ya hana su kujerun a Bundestag a karo na farko a tarihin su.

Kamar yadda CDU / CSU ta kusan rasa rinjaye, kuma FDP ta kasa samun kowane kujerun, ana buƙatar duk wata gwamnati mai yiwuwa ta zama sabuwar hadin gwiwa. Gwamnatin hadin gwiwa guda daya da ba tare da CDU / CSU ba za ta kasance hadin gwiwar ja-kore-kore na Hagu, tunda hadin gwiwoyi ja-kore, mai kama da gwamnatin Jamus tsakanin 1998 da 2005, ba za ta sami isasshen kujeru don mafi rinjaye ba. Dukkanin jam'iyyar Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) da Alliance 90/The Greens sun yi watsi da mulki tare da Hagu wanda ya mallaki tsohon Gabashin Jamus. Daga ƙarshe, jam'iyyar Merkel ta cimma Yarjejeniyar hadin gwiwa tare da babbar jam'iyyar adawa ta lokacin, SPD, don kafa wata babbar hadin gwiwa, ta uku a tarihin kasar tun lokacin yakin duniya na biyu. Shugabannin SPD sun gudanar da kuri'un tabbatarwa ta hanyar membobinsu da yawa kafin a sanya yarjejeniyar ta ƙarshe. An sabunta wannan Babban hadin gwiwa bayan Zaben tarayya na Jamus na 2017 saboda gazawar yayin tattaunawar Haɗin gwiwar Jamaica. 

Sabuwar jam'iyyar Eurosceptic, Alternative for Germany (AfD) da aka kafa a watan Fabrairun 2013, tana da 'yan takara ne kawai a cikin mazabu 158 daga cikin 299, kusan sun rasa ƙofar zabe ta 5%, amma sun zama shugaban' yan adawa tun a shekarar 2017.

## Tarihi
A cikin zaben tarayya na Jamus na shekara ta 2009, Ƙungiyar Demokradiyyar Kirista ta Jamus (CDU) da 'yar'uwarta, Kungiyar Demócrata ta Kirista ta Bavaria (CSU), da Jam'iyyar Demokradiyya ta 'Yanci (FDP) sun lashe zaben tare da Angela Merkel a matsayin Shugaban Jamus da Guido Westerwelle a matsayin Mataimakin Shugaban Jamus. 

## Ranar
Ranar zaben tarayya tana karkashin Dokar Tushen Tarayyar Jamus (kundin Tsarin Mulki na Jamus) da Dokar Zabe ta Tarayya (*Bundeswahlgesetz*). Mataki na 39 na Dokar Tushen ya bayyana cewa za a zabi Bundestag tsakanin watanni 46 zuwa 48 bayan farkon lokacin majalisa.  Kamar yadda Bundestag na 17 ya taru a ranar 27 ga Oktoba 2009, an shirya zaben tsakanin 27 ga Agusta da 27 ga Oktoba 2013.  Don kauce wa bukukuwan makaranta, ana zaɓar kwanan wata a ƙarshen Satumba; wannan ya sanya 15 ko 22 Satumba 2013 kwanakin da suka fi dacewa. Shugaban Jamus ya ba da umarni a ranar 22 ga Satumba 2013 ta zama ranar zabe bisa ga shawarar gwamnatin tarayya.

## Tsarin zabe
Dangane da Mataki na 38 na Dokar Tushen Tarayyar Jamus, za a zabi mambobin Bundestag a cikin zaɓen gaba ɗaya, kai tsaye, kyauta, daidai, da na sirri; kowa da ya wuce shekaru goma sha takwas yana da damar jefa kuri'a.

A shekara ta 2008, an buƙaci wasu gyare-gyare ga tsarin zaɓe a ƙarƙashin umarnin Kotun Tsarin Mulki ta Tarayya ta Jamus. Kotun ta sami tanadi a cikin Dokar Zabe ta Tarayya wanda ta hanyarsa zai yiwu wata jam'iyya ta fuskanci nauyin kuri'u mara kyau, wato rasa kujeru saboda ƙarin kuri'u, ya keta garantin tsarin mulki na tsarin zaɓe na kasancewa daidai da kai tsaye. Kotun ta ba da izinin shekaru uku don waɗannan canje-canje, don haka ba a shafi Zaben tarayya na Jamus na 2009 ba. Canje-canjen sun kasance ne a ranar 30 ga Yuni 2011 amma ba a kammala dokar da ta dace ba a wannan lokacin. An kafa sabuwar dokar zabe a ƙarshen 2011 amma Kotun Tsarin Mulki ta Tarayya ta sake ayyana ta ba bisa ka'ida ba a kan karar da aka shigar daga jam'iyyun adawa da kuma ƙungiyar wasu 'yan ƙasa 4,000.

Hudu daga cikin bangarori biyar a cikin Bundestag sun amince da sake fasalin zaɓe inda za a kara yawan kujeru a cikin Bundostag kamar yadda ya cancanta don tabbatar da cewa ana biyan duk wani kujerun da aka raba ta hanyar rarraba kujerun daidaitawa, don tabbatar da cikakken daidaito bisa ga rabon jam'iyyar siyasa na kuri'un jam'iyya a matakin ƙasa. Bundestag ta amince kuma ta aiwatar da sabon sake fasalin zabe a watan Fabrairun 2013. 

Ana zabar Bundestag ta amfani da wakilci mai daidaituwa, ma'ana cewa kowane mai jefa kuri'a yana da kuri'u biyu, kuri'a ta farko don zaben dan takarar mazabar ta hanyar farko da ya wuce  da kuma kuri'a na biyu don zaben Jerin jihohi.  Ana amfani da hanyar Sainte-Laguë / Schepers don canza kuri'un zuwa kujeru,  a cikin tsari na matakai biyu tare da kowane mataki wanda ya shafi lissafi biyu. Na farko, ana lissafin adadin kujerun da za a rarraba wa kowace jiha, bisa ga yawan mutanen Jamus da ke zaune a can. Sa'an nan kuma ana rarraba kujerun a kowace jiha ga jerin jam'iyyun a wannan jiha, bisa ga yawan kuri'u na biyu da kowace jam'iyya ta samu.

A cikin rarraba kujeru tsakanin jerin jihohi, kawai jam'iyyun da suka samu aƙalla kashi biyar cikin dari na kuri'un da aka jefa a yankin zaɓe ko kuma sun sami kujerar aƙalla mazabu uku ne ake la'akari da su. Ana ƙayyade mafi ƙarancin adadin kujeru ga kowace jam'iyya a matakin tarayya. Ana yin wannan ta hanyar lissafin, ga kowane jerin jam'iyya, yawan kujerun mazabar da ta samu bisa ga kuri'un farko, da kuma yawan kujerar da ta cancanci bisa ga kuri-tallace na biyu. Mafi girma daga cikin waɗannan adadi biyu shine mafi ƙarancin adadin kujerun jam'iyyar a wannan jiha. Haɗuwa tare da mafi ƙarancin adadin kujerun da jam'iyyar ke da shi a duk jihohin yana samar da jimlar da ke wakiltar mafi ƙaranciyar adadin kujeruna a cikin ƙasar gaba ɗaya.

Don tabbatar da cewa kowace jam'iyya ta sami mafi ƙarancin adadin kujerun lokacin da aka rarraba kujerun ta amfani da hanyar Sainte-Laguë / Schepers, yana iya zama dole don ƙara yawan kujerun a cikin Bundestag. Sa'an nan kuma dole ne a tabbatar da cewa ana rarraba kujerun ga jam'iyyun daidai da rabon su na kasa na kuri'un na biyu. Ana kirkirar ƙarin kujerun da aka ɗora, ko kujerun ma'auni, don tabbatar da cewa rarraba kujerun ya nuna rabon jam'iyyun na kuri'u na biyu kuma babu wata jam'iyya da ta sami ƙasa da adadin kujerun. Ana kuma buƙatar kujerun daidaitawa don tabbatar da cewa kowane jam'iyya yana buƙatar kusan adadin kuri'u na biyu a kowane wurin zama. Da zarar an ƙayyade yawan kujerun da kowace jam'iyya ke da damar karɓa a duk faɗin ƙasar, ana rarraba kujerun ga jerin jihohin jam'iyyun. Kowace jerin jihohi dole ne su sami akalla kujeru da yawa kamar yawan mazabar da jam'iyyar ta lashe a cikin jihar da ake tambaya.

## 'Yan takarar shugaban kasa
Kodayake 'Yan takarar shugaban kasa (*Kanzlerkandidaten*) suna taka muhimmiyar rawa a cikin kamfen ɗin zabe, ofishinsu ba a tsara shi a cikin kowane doka ba, kuma ya rage ga kowane jam'iyya don tantance yadda, kuma idan a kowane hali, don kiran dan takarar shugaban kasar. SPD ta ambaci shugaba-dan takara, yayin da CDU da CSU suka ambaci na kowa. Ƙananan jam'iyyun Bundestag (FDP, Hagu, da Greens) yawanci  ba sa kiran dan takarar shugaba saboda ba zai yiwu irin wannan dan takarar ya zama shugaba ba. A maimakon haka sun ambaci mutum daya ko biyu (*Spitzenkandidaten*) wadanda za su zama fuskokin yakin neman zabe na wannan jam'iyyar. Kodayake kusan babu damar da za su ci kujeru a Bundestag, musamman saboda mafi ƙarancin kuri'un da ake buƙata don a ba su kowane kujerun, kuma ƙasa da haka suna da dan takarar su zama shugaban kasa, jam'iyyun da ke gefen wasu lokuta suna kiran dan takarar shugaban kasa, kamar Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität tare da dan takardar shaidar Helga Zepp-LaRouche a zaben tarayya na 2009.

Duk da yake ana kiran shugaba mai zaman kansa a matsayin shugaba-dan takarar jam'iyyarsa, tsarin babban jam'iyyar adawa don tantance shugaba-can takarar su ya bambanta. Yawancin lokuta, irin wannan mutum an ƙaddara shi a cikin ƙungiyar jam'iyya ta ciki sannan a shafa shi a taron jam'iyya. Kamar yadda CDU / CSU ita ce babbar jam'iyyar gwamnati, ba a kalubalanci shugabar CDU da shugabar da ke kan mulki Angela Merkel a matsayin shugabar-dan takara ba. A cikin SPD, halin da ake ciki bai kasance a bayyane ba, saboda akwai 'yan takara huɗu a cikin tattaunawar. Yayinda shugaban jam'iyyar Sigmar Gabriel, shugaban majalisa Frank-Walter Steinmeier, da Peer Steinbrück, tsohon ministan shugaban Nordrhein-Westfalen da tsohon ministan kudi na tarayya, sun kasance masu neman takarar, ministan Nordrhein - Westfalen mai ci Hannelore Kraft ya musanta sha'awar takarar.[undefined] Gabriel, Steinmeier, da Steinbrück duk suna da mummunar rikodin zabe, saboda dukansu sun jagoranci jam'iyyarsu cikin mummunan rauni a cikin jihohi ko babban zabe. Gabriel da Steinbrück sun rasa ofisoshin ministan-shugaban su a 2003 da 2005, kuma Steinmeier ya kasa a matsayin dan takarar shugaban kasa a 2009. A ranar 28 ga Satumba 2012, jam'iyyar ta ba da sanarwar cewa Steinbrück zai zama dan takarar shugaban jam'iyyar SPD.[1]

## Yaƙin neman zaɓe
Bayan ya dauki zafi a cikin gida don fitar da wasu ƙasashen Turai, Ministan Kudi Wolfgang Schäuble ya ɗauki mataki na ambaton cewa Girka za ta buƙaci taimako na uku. Wannan ya bambanta da abokan aikinsa waɗanda suka guji yin irin waɗannan matakan saboda zaben, musamman bayan korar Merkel game da yiwuwar ceto a nan gaba. A mayar da martani ga sanarwa da kuma rikice-rikice, Peer Steinbrueck na SPD ya ce "lokaci ne Mrs. Merkel ta gaya wa mutane gaskiya", yayin da Jürgen Trittin na Greens ya soki Merkel.

Merkel kuma ta zama shugabar farko da ta ziyarci sansanin Dachau bayan gayyatar tsohon fursuna Max Mannheimer, wanda ke jagorantar ƙungiyar waɗanda suka tsira, yana cewa: "Abin da ya faru a sansanonin ya kasance kuma yana ci gaba da zama ba a fahimta ba. " Merkel ta kuma yi gargadi game da karuwar adawa da Yahudawa da wariyar launin fata a matsayin barazana ga dimokuradiyya a Turai. Mazaunan garin sun yi maraba da ziyararta saboda yanayin tarihi amma kuma an ba da shawarar a matsayin dabarar jefa kuri'a kafin zaben. Ta kuma yi kamfen a kan rikodin rashin aikin yi na Jamus wanda ya fadi zuwa shekaru biyu a lokacin da ta kasance firaministan, ci gaba zuwa ga daidaitaccen kasafin kuɗi, da fa'idodin Yurozone don fitar da Jamus. An yi tambayoyi game da gadonta da kuma mai yiwuwa magaji ga shugabancin jam'iyyar. Kamfen din a cikin "lokaci mai zafi" ya ƙare a ranar 21 ga Satumba, yayin da Merkel ta yi kira ga masu jefa kuri'a da su goyi bayanta a kan masu shakka.

### Tattaunawar talabijin
An gudanar da muhawara ta talabijin ta minti 90 tsakanin manyan 'yan takarar CDU / CSU da SPD, manyan masu fafatawa guda biyu, a ranar 1 ga Satumba. 'Yan takarar da suka fi girma a jam'iyya Rainer Brüderle (FDP), Jürgen Trittin (Alliance 90/The Greens), da Gregor Gysi (The Left) sun gudanar da muhawara daban a ranar 2 ga Satumba.

## Binciken ra'ayi

## Sakamakon

Jam'iyyu huɗu ne kawai suka kasance a cikin Bundestag a karo na farko tun lokacin Zaben tarayya na Jamus ta Yamma na 1987, yayin da CDU / CSU ke aiki a matsayin ƙungiyar Bundestag ɗaya. Ƙungiyar Demokradiyyar Kirista ta Jamus (CDU) da Kungiyar Jama'ar Kirista ta Bavaria (CSU) sun samu kashi 42 cikin 100 na kuri'un, sakamakon da suka fi dacewa tun lokacin da suka samu kashi 44% a shekarar 1990. Tun da kashi 15.7 cikin 100 na kuri'un sun tafi jam'iyyun da suka kasa kashi 5% na Ƙofar zaɓe, CDU / CSU sun zo da kujeru biyar kawai ba tare da rinjaye ba. Jam'iyyar Free Democratic Party (FDP), ƙaramin abokin tarayya a cikin gwamnatin hadin gwiwa mai fita, ta kasa wucewa da ƙofar 5% . Har ila yau, ta kasa lashe kowane kujerun da aka zaba kai tsaye, saboda ba ta lashe kowane kujeru da aka zaba ba tun 1990, ta rufe shi daga Bundestag gaba ɗaya a karo na farko a tarihin jam'iyyar. Sabuwar jam'iyyar Eurosceptic, Alternative for Germany, kusan ta lashe kujeru amma an rufe ta da kusan rasa Ƙofar zaɓe ta 5% . 

## Manazarta