Sauyin daidaitan yanayi na wedge

Ana amfani da wedges na daidaita yanayin yanayi don bayyana yiwuwar sauyin yanayi da tasirin yanayi su, ta hanyar haɗa nau'ikan tsoma baki daban-daban cikin "wedges" wanda ke wakiltar yiwuwar raguwa a cikin hayakin CO2. Lokacin da aka ɗora su a saman juna, wedges suna samar da "triangle na daidaitawa" wanda ke wakiltar ƙididdigar adadin carbon da ake buƙatar cirewa daga yanayi don shimfiɗa hayakin carbon  da kuma hana carbon na yanayi daga ninkawa.  Ana amfani da wannan tsarin don tsara bayanai masu rikitarwa game da dabarun ragewa don gabatar da su ga masu tsara manufofi da jama'a, tare da burin motsa sauye-sauyen fasaha da ayyukan manufofi don tura fasahar kasuwanci da na yanzu. 

Hanyar tana gabatar da dumamar duniya a matsayin matsala wacce za a iya kai farmaki ta amfani da fasahar da ke akwai a kasuwa don rage hayakin CO2. Zaɓin saiti na dabarun ragewa don ƙirƙirar triangle na daidaitawa shine tsarin tsarawa don gano yiwuwar shiga tsakani don rage hayaki. Manufar ita ce daidaita yawan CO2 a ƙarƙashin 500 ppm sama da shekaru hamsin, ta hanyar zabar dabarun don ragewa kamar yadda aka wakilta ta hanyar wedges. Kowane wedge yana wakiltar 25 gigatons na guje wa hayakin carbon a cikin shekaru hamsin. 

Wannan hanyar gabatar da bayanai masu rikitarwa game da ragewa an gabatar da ita ne a cikin 2004 ta hanyar masu binciken Jami'ar Princeton Stephen Pacala da Robert H. Socolow .   A shekara ta 2004, Pacala da Socolow sun kiyasta cewa za a buƙaci kyawawan abubuwa bakwai don rage canjin yanayi nan da shekara ta 2054, idan an dauki matakai masu tsanani nan da nan. A cikin shekara ta 2011, sun kara kimantawarsu daga bakwai zuwa tara, saboda ci gaba da karuwa a cikin hayaki tun daga asalin takarda na 2004.  Wasu masu bincike sun kiyasta cewa adadin wedges da ake buƙata don rage canjin yanayi na iya zama mafi girma. Sabuntawa ta 2020 ta hanyar Carbon Mitigation Initiative ta tsara kokarin ragewa zuwa 2060 tare da wedges takwas. Dukkanin gaggawa da wahalar samun canje-canje masu mahimmanci an jaddada su.

A cikin 2021, taƙaitaccen ci gaba zuwa dabarun sauyin yanayi 16, wanda aka bayyana dangane da sassan daidaitawa, ya ba da rahoton cewa yayin da wasu yankuna suka ga ci gaba mai yawa (misali inganta ingancin abin hawa) wasu sun ga ci gaba kaɗan ko mara kyau (misali asarar bishiyoyi masu zafi a Asiya da Afirka). Ci gaban ci gaba kamar yadda na 2021 an kiyasta ya kasance kusan 1.5 ± 0.9 ne kawai daga cikin ƙididdigar ƙididdiga bakwai.

## Ra'ayi
A stabilization wedge ne wani mataki wanda ci gaba da rage hasken hayaki. Sunan ya samo asali ne daga siffar triangular na rata tsakanin raguwa da rashin raguwa lokacin da aka zana shi a tsawon lokaci. Misali, raguwar bukatar wutar lantarki saboda karuwar inganci yana nufin cewa ana buƙatar samar da karancin wutar lantarki kuma don haka ana buƙatar samar le ƙananan hayaki. Kalmar ta samo asali ne daga Wasan Wasan Wutar Wutar Wuta. 

A matsayin sashin tunani, ƙugiya mai daidaitawa daidai yake da waɗannan misalan shirye-shiryen ragewa: tura injinan iska mai nauyin MW dubu ɗari biyu 10;  dakatar da saran gandun daji gaba daya da dasa itatuwan hekta miliyan 300;  haɓakar matsakaicin ƙarfin makamashi na dukkan gine-ginen duniya da kashi 25 cikin ɗari;   ko shigar da wuraren kama carbon da adanawa a cikin manyan tashoshin wutar lantarki guda 800.  Pacala da Socolow sun ba da shawarar a cikin aikin su, Stabilization Wedges, cewa ana buƙatar samar da wedge bakwai nan da 2050 - a fasahar zamani - don yin tasiri mai mahimmanci kan rage sauyin yanayi.  Akwai, duk da haka, maɓuɓɓuka waɗanda ke ƙididdige buƙatar 14 wedges saboda shawarar Pacala da Socolow kawai za su daidaita iskar carbon dioxide a matakan yanzu amma ba yanayin yanayin yanayi ba, wanda ke karuwa da fiye da 2 ppm / shekara.[1].  A cikin 2011, Socolow ya sake duba kiyasin su na farko zuwa tara     .

Kashewar CO2 da sauran iskar gas din suna ƙaruwa tun lokacin Juyin Juya Halin Masana'antu. Idan yanayin ya ci gaba da tsayawa, hayaki zai ninka sau biyu nan da shekara ta 2055. Don hana mummunar sakamakon dumamar yanayi, masana kimiyya suna ba da shawarar daskarewa da rage fitar da hayaki na duniya nan da nan.

### Triangle na daidaitawa
 
Idan an tsara hayaki na CO2 na duniya na shekaru 50 masu zuwa, bambancin tsakanin kasuwanci kamar yadda aka saba da shi da kuma hanyar da ke da kyau ya zama triangle. Wannan triangle an san shi da triangle na daidaitawa. Pacala da Socolow da farko sun raba wannan triangle mai yiwuwa zuwa sassan kwanciyar hankali guda bakwai, waɗanda ke wakiltar matakai daban-daban waɗanda dole ne a ɗauka don rage hayaki. Lokacin da ake magana game da dabarun daban-daban don rage hayaki, ana amfani da harshen "don rage darajar wedge ɗaya". Rage wani hasashen gigatons goma sha huɗu na hayakin carbon zuwa bakwai wedges a cikin wani triangle na daidaitawa yana sa aikin ya fi sauƙi a fahimta.

### Shirye-shiryen Wedge
Pacala da Socolow da farko sun gabatar da ra'ayin wedges a *Kimiyya* a cikin 2004. A cikin wannan takarda sun gano dabarun wedge daban-daban goma sha biyar. Game da takamaiman lambar, Socolow ya ce shi da Pacala ba su haɗa da duk yiwuwar ba, amma cewa "Yana da batun maganganu don tsayawa a 15. Kuma gajiya. Babu wani sihiri game da 15."

Wuraren yakan faɗo cikin nau'i uku: ma'amala da buƙatar makamashi, ma'amala da samar da makamashi, da ma'amala da kama CO2 da adanawa.  Kowane yanki yana wakiltar tan biliyan metric na carbon a kowace shekara.] Tun daga 2020[sabuntawa] gidan yanar gizon CMI yana gabatar da dabaru goma sha biyar kuma ya rarraba su zuwa rukuni tara, kamar haka  :

# Inganci
# Canjin man fetur
# Kamawa da adanawa na carbon
# Gidajen daji da filayen noma
# Nukiliya
# Iska
# Rana
# Man fetur
# Rashin ruwa na halitta

Baya ga iyakance hayaki na CO2, irin waɗannan canje-canje suna ba da lafiyar jama'a kamar rage gurɓataccen iska, ingantaccen lafiya, da kuma tsara cututtukan cututtuka.

Kamar sauran tattaunawar sauyin yanayi na duniya, yawancin Pacala da Socolow suna mai da hankali kan ingantaccen makamashi. Ma'aurata suna magana game da iyakance amfani, kuma babu wanda ke la'akari da raguwar yawan jama'a. Duk da haka an gano ci gaban tattalin arziki da yawan jama'a a matsayin manyan direbobi na canjin yanayi na duniya. Daga cikin goma sha biyar da Pacala da Socolow suka kirkira, daya ne kawai - rage yawan mil da ke cikin motar duniya - ana iya la'akari da shi a matsayin "rage buƙata".  Sauran masu bincike sun tattauna yiwuwar dabarun ragewa da suka hada da gyaran abinci da yawan jama'a.  

## Ƙididdigar ƙididdiga
Ya zuwa shekara ta 2004, Pacala da Socolow sun kiyasta cewa za a buƙaci kyawawan abubuwa bakwai don rage canjin yanayi, idan an dauki matakai masu tsanani nan da nan. A cikin 2011 sun fitar da sabon kimantawa wanda suka ba da shawarar cewa adadin wedges da ake buƙata ya karu daga bakwai zuwa tara. Wannan karuwar ta nuna dalilai kamar ci gaba da karuwa a cikin hayaki tun daga asalin takarda na 2004. 

Wasu masu bincike sun yi iƙirarin cewa kiyasin Pacala da Socolow na adadin matakan daidaita yanayin da ake buƙata suna da kyakkyawan fata.  Martin I. Hoffert ya kasance daya daga cikin masana kimiyya na farko da suka yi hasashen dumamar yanayi saboda carbon dioxide, yayin da yake aiki a Exxon a cikin 1980s.] Hoffert ya ba da shawara a cikin wani labarin Kimiyya na 2010 cewa Pacala da Socolow's 2004 kiyasin sun yi ƙasa da ƙasa, kuma wasu daga cikin tunanin su game da raguwar carbon-to-energy productions and cobaltization .  Hoffert ya ba da shawarar cewa ana iya buƙatar kusan 18-25 wedges.[2]  Ya bayar da hujjar cewa ana buƙatar babban taro, kwatankwacin aikin Manhattan ko shirin Apollo, don kawo fasahohin da ake buƙata daga yuwuwar fasaha zuwa aiki mai yiwuwa..

Hakazalika, a watan Yunin 2008, Joseph Romm ya yi jayayya a cikin mujallar Nature cewa "Idan za mu sami amincewa da ikonmu na daidaita matakan carbon dioxide a ƙasa da 450 na yamma.  Romm ya nuna matsakaicin ƙasa da 5 GtC a kowace shekara a cikin karni. Wannan yana nufin hanzarta turawar ... wedges don haka sun fara aiki a cikin 2015 kuma suna aiki gaba ɗaya a cikin ƙasa da lokacin da Socolow da Pacala suka tsara. "  Romm ta jaddada muhimmancin sauya manufofin ƙasa da na duniya daga mafi tsawo zuwa dabarunuka na gaggawa na yanzu.

## Wasan Wasan Wutar Wutar Wuta

Kayan kwanciyar hankali sune tushen motsa jiki na ƙungiya da ake kira Stabilization Wedge Game . Wannan wasan ya zama sananne a matsayin kayan aiki ga makarantu da kasuwanci don ilimantar da 'yan wasa da tattauna rage yawan dumamar yanayi. The Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) ya ba da izinin kowa ya yi amfani da wasan kuma ya yi amfani le kayan su, idan dai sun raba sakamakon tare da CMI.

Ana gabatar da ra'ayin kwanciyar hankali a wasu lokuta a cikin nau'in motsa jiki na ƙungiya da ake kira Stabilization Wedges Game .  Saboda sauƙin wasan wedge, ya zama sananne a matsayin kayan aikin sadarwa don rage dumamar duniya. Ana amfani da shi a wurare daban-daban da kuma 'yan wasa daban-daban ciki har da' yan kasuwa, 'yan siyasa, malamai, da dalibai. David Hawkins, darektan yanayi a Majalisar Tsaro ta Halitta, ya sanya sauƙin amfani da Wasan Wedge ta wannan hanyar:

### Amfani da Ilimi
The Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) ya ba da izinin kowa ya yi amfani da wasan kuma ya yi amfani le kayan su, idan dai sun raba sakamakon tare da CMI. Saboda yana da sauƙin isa, an haɗa shi a wasu darussan makarantar sakandare. Cibiyar Keystone ta yi la'akari da Wasan Wasan Wutar Wutar Wuta don cika ka'idojin Ilimi na Kasa masu zuwa: S1, S6, LA4, LA5, C4, C5, E1, G1, G5, da WH9.

Ƙungiyar Amurka don Ci gaban Kimiyya ta shirya taron malamai a Hilton a San Francisco a cikin 2007. Haɗin gwiwa tare da AAAS sun kasance Ƙungiyar Malaman Kimiyya ta Kasa da Ƙungiyar Malamai ta San Francisco (da ke wakiltar Ƙungiyar Ilimi ta Kasa da Tarayyar Malamai na Amurka). Socolow da Hotinski da kansu sun gabatar da manufar Stabilization Wedge a taron.

### Amfani da Kasuwanci
Ana kuma amfani da Wasan Wasan Wutar Wutar Wuta a matsayin tsakiya don tarurrukan kasuwanci. Shugabannin kasuwanci sun buga wasan a matsayin taron karawa juna sani da Cibiyar Kasuwanci mai dorewa a Jami'ar York da ke Toronto.

### Rashin amincewa
Wasu masana kimiyya sun kiyasta cewa ana iya buƙatar adadi mai yawa fiye da Pacala da Socolow da aka gabatar da farko. Tushen wasan na cewa bil'adama yana da kayan aiki da fasahohi don dakatar da canjin yanayi na iya zama mai kyakkyawan fata.

An soki Wasan Wedge kamar yadda yake da sauƙi, musamman game da bangarorin tattalin arziki na rage yawan dumamar duniya. Kayan da CMI ta bayar kawai sun haɗa ɗaya, biyu, ko alamun dala uku ga kowane wedge a matsayin ƙididdigar ƙididdigatattun kuɗin kowane zaɓi. Richard G. Richels, babban injiniya a Cibiyar Binciken Wutar Lantarki, ya ce rashin daidaito na tattalin arziki a wasan na iya haifar da kuskuren ra'ayoyi:

Wani zargi na karshe shi ne cewa Wasan Wedge yana mai da hankali kan gyaran fasaha maimakon kalubalantar tattalin arzikin ci gaba mara iyaka wanda ke cikin zuciyar canjin yanayi na duniya.

## Tarihi
An kirkiro ra'ayin daidaita yanayin yanayi a matsayin wani ɓangare na Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) a Cibiyar Muhalli ta Princeton (yanzu Cibiyar Muhallin High Meadows).  Kamfanin Ford Motor Company ne ya ba da kuɗin aikin tsakanin 2000 da 2009 kuma yana karɓar kuɗi daga BP tun daga shekara ta 2000.

## Bayanan da aka ambata