Cyclonic Niño

**Cyclonic Niño** wani al'amari ne na yanayin yanayi wanda aka lura a cikin yanayin yanayi inda aka ƙara yawan ayyukan guguwar yanayi . Ƙara yawan ayyukan cyclone na wurare masu zafi yana haɗuwa da ruwan teku, yana gabatar da sanyaya a cikin saman saman teku wanda ke bazuwa da sauri da kuma ɗumamar yadudduka masu zurfi waɗanda ke daɗe da yawa, yana haifar da dumama ruwan teku.

A cikin kwaikwaiyon yanayi na Pliocene, wannan dumamar yanayi ana jigilar ta ta igiyoyin ruwa kuma wani yanki nasa ya ƙare a Gabashin Pacific, yana dumama shi dangane da Yammacin Pacific kuma ta haka yana haifar da yanayin El Niño  . Yanayin da aka sake ginawa a cikin Pliocene ya nuna yanayin yanayin yanayin El Niño-kamar yanayin teku wanda za'a iya bayyana shi ta hanyar ƙaruwar ayyukan cyclone na wurare masu zafi kuma don haka ya karu yanayin zafi a Gabashin Pacific. Wasu daga cikin zafi ana jigilar su daga wurare masu zafi kuma suna iya zama alhakin abubuwan da suka gabata na yanayin zafi fiye da na yau da kullum, irin su a cikin Eocene da Cretaceous, ko da yake babu wata yarjejeniya game da tasirin tasirin cyclones na wurare masu zafi a kan jigilar zafi daga wurare masu zafi. Akwai shaida cewa a ƙarƙashin yanayi na yau lokacin da yanayi ya yi daidai, mahaukaciyar guguwa na iya fara abubuwan El Niño.

## Tarihi

## Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi da haɗakar teku

Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi suna da haɗari da lalacewar yanayi waɗanda ke da alhakin kusan lalacewar $ 10,000,000 a kowace shekara a Amurka kadai. Har ila yau, suna da tasiri daban-daban a kan yanayi da teku, yayin da iskõkin su suka haɗu da ruwan teku na sama kuma suka jawo ruwa mai zurfi mai sanyi; Bugu da ƙari, ana cire zafi daga teku, kodayake wannan tasirin karami ne. Yawancin lokaci ana bayyana tasirin a matsayin sanyaya na wucin gadi na saman ruwa  har zuwa 6 ° C (11 ° F)  wanda ke raunana guguwar  amma teku da yanayi sun watsar da shi cikin watanni daya-biyu. Wannan yana tare da dumama mai tsawo na ruwan da ke ƙarƙashin ƙasa, kodayake akwai wani rikitarwa a cikin tsarin amsawa;   ɓangare na  dumama na ƙasa yana ɓacewa cikin yanayi ta hanyar bambancin yanayi a cikin thermocline idan ba shi da zurfi sosai. Bugu da ƙari, wasu tasirin guguwa na wurare masu zafi a kan teku kamar hazo na iya canzawa ko hana tasirin iska. Wannan yana iya haifar da tasiri a kan jigilar zafi na duniya; tasirin da ke kan yanayin duniya ba shi da kyau a yanayin yanzu amma zai iya zama mafi karfi a yanayin zafi.

Sakamakon haɗuwa zai zama dumama teku  da kuma zafi tsakanin 260 da 400 TW,  da kuma - don rarrabawar guguwa na wurare masu zafi - rage jigilar zafi daga wurare masu zafi  tare da kusan 1/3 na zafi da ke tarawa a yankunan equatorial.  Kimanin abun ciki na zafi na teku ta hanyar Hotunan tauraron dan adam yana tallafawa cewa aikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi yana ƙara abun ciki na zafin teku, kodayake akwai wasu gargadi  kuma tasirin a kan yaduwar zafi na duniya ba shi da girma a ƙarƙashin aikin guguwar zafi na yanzu;  duk da haka, bisa ga wani binciken tasirin na iya zama babba don bayyana bambance-bambance tsakanin haɗuwa da teku mai ɗorewa da aka lura a cikin wurare masu zafi da adadin da ake buƙata ta duniya, kamar yadda tsohon bai isa ba.

### Pliocene

An tsara manufar a cikin tattaunawar yanayin yanayi na Pliocene; a lokacin yanayin zafi na Plioceno ya kasance 2-4  ° F) mafi girma fiye da yau kuma yanayin zafin jiki a cikin Tekun Pacific ya fi karami, ma'ana cewa Gabashin Pacific yana da irin wannan yanayin zafi ga Yammacin Pacific,  daidai da yanayin El Niño mai ƙarfi. Daga cikin tasirin da aka sake ginawa akwai yanayin da ya fi dacewa a Kudu maso yammacin Amurka fiye da yau. Kamar yadda yawan iskar gas ba ya fi girma fiye da yau, an nemi wasu bayani game da waɗannan anomalies na zafin jiki.

Kasancewar jihar mai kama da El Niño ta dindindin duk da haka ba a musanta shi ba, kuma a wasu bincike ya haifar da yanayin La Niña na Tekun Pacific. Misalai na yanayi, yanayin zafi na teku da aka sake ginawa tare da alkenones kuma wani lokacin ma sake ginawa daga foraminifera a cikin wannan maɓallin maɓallin ya samar da sakamako masu rikitarwa. An yi amfani da sake ginawa na Coral a cikin binciken 2011 don ƙaddara cewa El Niño-Southern Oscillation ya riga ya wanzu a lokacin Pliocene, gami da abubuwan da suka faru na El Niño.

## Kayan kwaikwayo na kwamfuta game da Pliocene
Misali tare da samfurin yaduwar CAM3 ya nuna cewa yawan guguwa na wurare masu zafi ya fi girma fiye da yau kuma faruwarsu ta fi yawa saboda yanayin zafi na teku da kuma yaduwar yanayi mai rauni (kwayar Hadley da yaduwar Walker) wanda ke haifar da karancin iska. Har ila yau, guguwa ta wurare masu zafi ta dade kuma tana faruwa a ko'ina cikin shekara maimakon a ɗaure su da takamaiman dalilai.

Wannan fadada ayyukan guguwa na wurare masu zafi zai kawo guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a cikin iyakar yankuna na teku inda ruwan teku a ƙasa da ruwa ke jigilar ruwa zuwa Gabashin Pacific. Cyclones na wurare masu zafi suna haifar da haɗuwa da ruwan teku;  tare da karuwa sau goma a cikin haɗuwa da teku a cikin bands biyu 8-40 ° arewa da kudu na ma'auni - musamman haɗuwa da ke faruwa a Tsakiyar Pacific inda aikin guguwa na wurare masu wurare masu zafi yake ƙasa a ƙarƙashin yanayin zamani - za a gabatar da zafi a cikin waɗannan raƙuman teku kuma a ƙarshe zai haifar da dumama na tsakiya da gabashin Tekun Pacific kamar El Niño da dumama da yankuna masu tasowa,  tare da dumama game da 2-3 ° C (3.6-5.4 ° F na yankin sanyi na yankin Pacific na yankin Pacific Wannan tasirin na iya ɗaukar ƙarni ɗaya don saitawa kuma ƙarfinsa ya dogara da ainihin tsarin haɗakar teku. Har ila yau, yana ƙarƙashin Ra'ayoyi masu kyau, yayin da dumama na gabashin Pacific ke kara yawan ayyukan guguwa na wurare masu zafi; a ƙarshe yanayin yanayi wanda ke nuna El Niño na dindindin da kuma El Niño Southern Oscillation na iya tasowa.

A lokacin tsakiyar Piacenzian inda maida hankali ga carbon dioxide ya kasance kusa da matakan yau, Duniya ta kasance game da 2-4 ° C (3.6-7.2 ° F) mai dumi fiye da yanzu  kuma kwaikwayon ya nuna cewa guguwa na wurare masu zafi sun fi tsanani;  tsarin rarraba guguwa masu zafi duk da haka ya bambanta da wanda aka sake ginawa don wasu matakai na Pliocene. Simulations ta amfani da CESM yanayin da aka gudanar a cikin 2018  ya nuna raguwar zafin jiki tsakanin Gabas da Yammacin Pacific da zurfin thermocline don mayar da martani ga hadaddun guguwa na wurare masu zafi da kuma hadaddun gabas a cikin Pacific; wannan yana tare da sanyaya yankunan da haɗuwa ya fi karfi da kuma dumama na Gabashin Pacific.  Har ila yau, akwai tasiri a kan Ruwan sama na Gabashin Asiya kamar ruwan sama mai karfi na hunturu  amma a cikin kwaikwayon yanayin baya na Piacenzian ya fi mahimmanci fiye da tasirin guguwa na wurare masu zafi. 

## Binciken da aka samu na gaba
Daga baya masu bincike sun ba da shawarar cewa karuwar iskõki na iya ƙarfafa El Niño Southern Oscillation  kuma cewa yanayin zafi na Eocene da Pliocene har yanzu yana nuna sake zagayowar ENSO. Wannan ba lallai bane ya nuna cewa har yanzu akwai yanayin zafin jiki na gabas zuwa yamma a cikin Tekun Pacific,  wanda a maimakon haka zai iya nuna tafkin zafi na Pacific da ya fadada gabas.  Gyaran yanayin zafi wanda ya danganci murjani da bayanan hazo da aka sake ginawa daga loess na kasar Sin ya nuna cewa babu wani jihar mai kama da El Niño na dindindin. Wani binciken 2013 tare da samfurin yanayi daban-daban ya nuna cewa guguwa na wurare masu zafi a yammacin Pacific na iya haifar da sanyaya yanayin yanayin teku na gabashin Pacific. A 2015 simulation na tropical cyclogenesis bai nuna karuwar tropical cyclone genesis a cikin Pliocene ba, ko da yake simulation bai samu a wani rage gabas-West Pacific zafin jiki gradient kuma ya sami karuwar tropikal cyclone aiki a cikin tsakiya Pacific mafi mahimmanci ga faruwar Cyclonic Niño tasirin. A 2018 simulation ya nuna cewa ƙara tropical cyclone gauraye haifar da yanayi abubuwan kwaikwayon na tsakiyar-Piacenzian yanayi iya a wasu fannoni inganta kuma a wasu rage wasan tsakanin model climate da kuma yanayin da aka sake gina daga paleoclimate data. Wani binciken 2019 ya kammala cewa aikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi a Yammacin Pacific yana da alaƙa da yanayin zafin jiki na El Niño watanni bayan haka.

Wani simintin yanayi na 2010 ya nuna cewa karuwar matsakaicin iskõki na guguwa na wurare masu zafi ya haifar da dumi a Gabashin Pacific da sanyaya a Yammacin Pacific,  daidai da amsawar El Niño; akwai kuma karfafa Hadley cell na yaduwar yanayi  kuma wasu zafi ana jigilar su daga wurare masu zafi ta hanyar iyakar yamma. An sami irin wannan canjin zafin jiki na Gabas da Yamma a wasu binciken 2010  da 2011;  a cikin yanayin zafi na ƙarshe wanda ya warma da kusan 0.5-1 ° C (0.90-1.80 ° F) da kuma dumama na duniya da  ° C (0.36 ° F)  kuma tsohon ya nuna cewa ana jigilar zafi a zurfin kimanin mita 200 (660  zuwa ga Equatorial Undercurrent wanda ke kawo shi cikin Gabashin Pacific. Ana ganin irin wannan sakamako amma mafi ƙanƙanta a Arewacin Atlantic da sauran tekuna kuma akwai canje-canje ga Indonesian Throughflow. Wani binciken 2013 ta amfani da guguwa na wurare masu zafi daga lokacin guguwar Pacific na 2003 ciki har da Typhoon Chan-hom ya nuna cewa iskar guguwa ta wurare masu zafi na iya haifar da raƙuman ruwa masu motsi zuwa gabas  kuma ya ba da shawarar cewa irin wannan guguwar da aka haifar da raɗaɗuwa na iya fara abubuwan El Niño  lokacin da yanayin baya ya dace. Wani binciken da aka yi a shekarar 2014 ya nuna karuwar yawan zafin teku da guguwa suka haifar tsakanin shekara ta 2004 da ƙarshen shekara ta 2005. Wani kwaikwayon 2018 ya nuna cewa ana jigilar anomalies na ƙasa mai dumi zuwa gabas zuwa Gabashin Pacific.

Hanyoyin da ba na teku ba don El Niños da aka haifar da guguwa ta wurare masu zafi na iya kasancewa. An dauki oscillation na Madden-Julian a matsayin mafi mahimmancin tushen fashewar iska ta yamma  a cikin Pacific na equatorial, wanda ke fitar da kwararar ruwa mai dumi zuwa gabas wanda ke fitarwa da El Niño.  A lokacin da suka dace da MJO kuma lokacin da suke kusa da ma'auni, guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a cikin Pacific suna haifar da iskõki na yamma waɗanda ke taka muhimmiyar rawa a farkon abubuwan El Niño kamar 2014-2016 El Niño, kuma akwai shaidar cewa karuwar aikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi ya riga ya fara El Niño. Irin waɗannan matakai suna tasiri ga tsananin El Niño  da sauran matakai na yanayi.

## Tasirin lokaci guda akan yanayin duniya
Ƙarin aikin guguwa na wurare masu zafi a lokacin yanayin zafi na iya ƙara jigilar zafi na teku, wanda zai iya bayyana dalilin da ya sa bayanan yanayi na yanayin zafi da ya gabata sau da yawa ba ya nuna zafi sosai a cikin wurare masu zafi idan aka kwatanta da yanayin zafi mai tsawo; karuwar jigilar zafi zai cire zafi yadda ya kamata daga wurare masu zafi  kuma ta haka yanayin zafi ya kasance mai ɗorewa ko da sauyewar yanayin zafi na teku.  Rashin zafi da ke haifar da guguwa na wurare masu zafi suna raunana yaduwar juyawa ta Atlantic  kuma zurfin layin da aka haɗu yana ƙaruwa a yankunan guguwa masu zafi. 

Irin wannan canjin jigilar zafi ta teku ta hanyar guguwa ta wurare masu zafi an yi amfani da shi don bayyana wasu jihohin yanayi na baya inda Duniya ta fi zafi fiye da yau da kuma yanayin zafin jiki tsakanin sanduna da ƙananan wurare masu zafi. Wannan shi ne misali a lokacin marigayi Cretaceous, a lokacin Paleocene-Eocene thermal matsakaicin lokacin da yanayin zafi a cikin Arctic ya wuce  ° C (68 ° F) a wasu lokuta,  a lokacin Eocene  kuma a lokacin Pliocene tsakanin shekaru miliyan 3 da 5 da suka gabata.

## Tasirin

Sakamakon "Cyclonic Niño" na iya bayyana rarraba zafin jiki a cikin Pliocene  da kuma shimfida yanayin zafi na teku a lokacin Pliocene. Yanayin El Niño na dindindin na iya samun sakamako mai kama da na El Niño ya yau, kodayake wannan ba abin da ba a musanta shi ba. El Niño na dindindin zai hana aikin guguwa a Arewacin Atlantic ba daidai ba fiye da El Niño ta yanzu, saboda tasirin thermodynamic daban-daban na dumama na ɗan lokaci.

Ana sa ran guguwa mai karfi na wurare masu zafi zai haifar da karin cakuda teku kuma ta haka ne ya fi karfi a kan jigilar zafi. Ana sa ran dumama duniya na Anthropogenic zai kara yawan guguwa mai zafi kuma ta haka ne zai iya haifar da tasirin Cyclonic Niño. Ƙarin aikin guguwa a Tsakiyar Pacific na iya zama sakamako.

## Manazarta