Guguwar Elita

**Guguwar Tropical Elita** wata guguwa ce mai ban mamaki ta wurare masu zafi wacce ta fadi a Madagascar sau uku. Guguwa ta biyar mai suna na 2003-04 Kudu maso Yammacin Tekun Indiya, Elita ta ci gaba a cikin Mozambique Channel a ranar 24 ga Janairu, 2004. Ya karfafa zuwa matsayin Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi kafin ya buge arewa maso yammacin Madagascar a ranar 28 ga Janairu; shi ne guguwa ta farko da ta buge yammacin Madagascar da wannan tsananin tun lokacin Cyclone Cynthia a 1991. Elita ta raunana zuwa yanayin matsanancin yanayi yayin da take haye tsibirin, kuma bayan ta fita zuwa kudu maso yammacin Tekun Indiya, ta juya zuwa yamma kuma ta koma bakin teku a gabashin Madagascar a ranar 31 ga Janairu. Bayan sake tsallaka tsibirin, guguwar ta kai Tashar Mozambique kuma ta sake karfafawa. Elita ta juya zuwa kudu maso gabas don yin saukowa ta ƙarshe a ranar 3 ga Fabrairu tare da kudu maso yammacin Madagascar. Kwanaki biyu bayan haka, ya sami Canjin extratropical; daga baya, tsarin da ya rage ya motsa ba daidai ba kafin ya ɓace a ranar 13 ga Fabrairu.

Elita ta zubar da ruwan sama mai yawa sama da 2 mm (8 inci), wanda ya lalata ko ya lalata dubban gidaje a Madagascar. Fiye da mutane 50,000 sun rasa gida, da farko a lardunan Mahajanga da Toliara. Ambaliyar ruwa daga guguwa ta lalata fiye da 450 km2 (170 sq mi) na ƙasar noma, gami da muhimman amfanin gona don abinci. A duk faɗin tsibirin, guguwar ta haifar da mutuwar mutane 33, Taron da tasirinsa wanda Cyclone Gafilo ya kara tsanantawa game da watanni biyu bayan haka. A wani wuri, Elita ta kawo ruwan sama da lalacewa ga Mozambique da Malawi, kuma iska ta waje ta haifar da teku mai ƙarfi da guguwa mai ƙarfi a Seychelles, Mauritius, da Réunion.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Zuwa ƙarshen watan Janairun shekara ta 2004, wani lokaci mai aiki na Madden-Julian oscillation ya fita daga gabar gabashin Afirka kuma ya haifar da convection (hadari) kusa da Madagascar, farawa a ranar 20 ga Janairu. Wannan bugun, mafi karfi a kakar, shi ne kuma ke da alhakin samar da guguwar Frank da Linda. Hadari ya haɗu a cikin Mozambique Channel tsakanin Madagascar da Mozambique a ranar 24 ga watan Janairu, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar ruwan sama. A wannan rana, ofishin meteorological na Météo-France a Réunion[nb 1] ya sanya Taron a matsayin Tropical Disturbance 06. Har ila yau, hauhawar ta kara iska a yankin, wanda ya kawar da convection daga zagayawa. Da yake tafiya zuwa kudu maso yamma da farko, tsarin ya zama mafi bayyana, wanda ya ƙare tare da karuwar guguwa a ranar 26 ga Janairu. A wannan rana, MFR ta inganta tsarin zuwa Moderate Tropical Storm Elita kusa da Tsibirin Juan de Nova .  A wannan rana, Cibiyar Gargadi ta Hadari (JTWC) [nb 2] ta fara ba da shawara game da tsarin, ta sanya shi Tropical Cyclone 09S.

An gudanar da shi ta hanyar tudu zuwa yamma, guguwar Tropical Storm Elita ta juya zuwa arewa a kan hanyar da ta gabata, hanyar da ba a saba gani ba ga Mozambique Channel. Convection ya canza har zuwa Janairu 28, lokacin da ruwan sama mai laushi ya bunkasa kuma ya shirya cikin hanzari a cikin ido; wannan ya biyo bayan raguwar iska. Wani tudun zuwa arewa maso gabas ya toshe motsi zuwa arewa, kuma Elita ya juya zuwa gabas- kudu maso gabas zuwa gabar yammacin Madagascar. Kusan 15:00 UTC a ranar 28 ga Janairu, guguwar ta sauka a Bombetoka Bay, ko kimanin kilomita 30 (20 mi) kudu maso yammacin Mahajanga. Filin jirgin saman da ke can ya rubuta Iska mai tsawo na10 &na 126 km / h (78 mph), kuma a kan wannan dalili, MFR ta inganta Elita zuwa matsayin guguwa na wurare masu zafi a cikin nazarin bayan kakar. Wannan ya sanya Elita guguwa ta farko ta wurare masu zafi da ta mamaye yammacin Madagascar tun lokacin da Cyclone Cynthia ya faru a 1991. Yayinda Elita ke aiki, duka JTWC da MFR sun kiyasta ƙarfin 110 km / h (70 mph) a farkon saukowa.

A ƙasa, guguwar ta raunana cikin sauri zuwa mummunan yanayi na wurare masu zafi, kuma JTWC ta dakatar da bayar da shawarwari na ɗan lokaci. Cibiyar Elita ta haye Madagascar, ta wuce kusa da babban birnin Madagascar Antananarivo, kuma ta sake fasalin tsawa a gabashin gabashin. A ƙarshen ranar 29 ga watan Janairu, yaduwar ta fito cikin Tekun Indiya kusa da Mahanoro. Wani tudu zuwa gabas ya juya tsarin zuwa yamma, yana ba da damar tsarin kusan awanni 24 kawai a kan ruwa mai budewa. A wannan lokacin, tsarin ya sake tsarawa dan kadan, kuma MFR ta inganta Elita zuwa guguwa mai zafi a ranar 30 ga Janairu. Guguwar ta sauka a karo na biyu kusa da Mananjary, kuma ta haye Madagascar a karo na abụọ a cikin sa'o'i 24.

Da farko a ranar 31 ga watan Janairu, Elita ta sake fitowa cikin tashar Mozambique, kuma JTWC ta fara sake ba da shawarwari. Tare da ruwa mai dumi da ƙananan iska, Elita ya sake karfafawa daga gabar yammacin Madagascar, ya kai matsayi na guguwa mai zafi a karo na uku a ranar 1 ga Fabrairu. Bayan ya koma yamma zuwa arewa maso yamma, guguwar ta tsaya a ranar 2 ga Fabrairu saboda ginin gini zuwa arewa. A wannan lokacin, Elita tana da kimanin kilomita 140 (85 mi) kudu maso yammacin inda ta kai matsayin guguwa mai zafi a karo na farko kwanaki shida da suka gabata. An sake tsara convection a cikin tsakiya mai zurfi, amma ba kamar lokacin farko na karuwa ba, babu wani fasalin ido da ya bunkasa. Marigayi a ranar 2 ga Fabrairu, JTWC ta tantance iskar iska ta 120 km / h (75 mph) - daidai da ƙaramin guguwa. A wannan lokacin, Elita ta koma bakin tekun Madagascar a karo na uku kusa da Morondava, wanda ya ba da rahoton mafi ƙarancin matsin lamba na   . Saboda rashin lura da iska, MFR ta kiyasta tsananin saukowa na 110 km / h (70 mph), kodayake hukumar ta lura cewa guguwar na iya kaiwa ga tsananin guguwa na wurare masu zafi.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Da yake ƙetare Madagascar a karo na uku, Elita ya bi hanyar sashi na biyu, ya fito cikin Tekun Indiya kusa da Manakara a ranar 3 ga Fabrairu. Duk da tsinkaye na farko na sake karfafawa, Elita ya hanzarta zuwa kudu maso gabas kuma ya rami ragowar convection, ya bar cibiyarsa a fallasa a ƙarƙashin tasirin karfi na matakin sama. Tsarin ya yi kama da guguwa mai zafi yayin da yaduwar ƙasa ta zama mafi girma. Marigayi a ranar 4 ga Fabrairu, JTWC ta dakatar da shawarwari, kuma MFR ta rarraba Elita a matsayin guguwa mai zafi a rana mai zuwa. A mako mai zuwa, ragowar Elita sun yi yawo zuwa kudu maso gabashin Madagascar. A ranar 11 ga Fabrairu, sauran yaduwar ya bi diddigin kudu maso yamma, kawai don hanzarta kudu maso gabas daga yankin a ranar 13 ga Fabrairun, lokacin da MFR ta daina saka idanu kan tsarin 

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