Guguwar Gafilo

**Guguwar Gafilo** mai tsananin zafi ita ce guguwar da ta fi zafi da aka taɓa yi a cikin Tekun Kudu maso Yamma a Tekun Indiya da kuma guguwar da ta fi zafi a duk duniya a cikin 2004. Kasancewar da ba a saba gani ba kuma mai tsanani, Gafilo ita ce guguwar mafi muni kuma mafi barna a cikin 2003–04 Kudu maso Yamma guguwar tekun Indiya. A cewar Cibiyar Bala'i ta Duniya ta EM-DAT, Gafilo ya kashe akalla mutane 363. Gafilo ya kuma yi asarar kusan dalar Amurka miliyan 250 kwatankwacin dalar Amurka 2004 a Madagascar, lamarin da ya sa ta zama guguwa mafi muni da ta afkawa kasar a tarihi.

Da yake kafa kudancin Diego Garcia, ya kara karfi a cikin guguwa mai zafi a ranar 3 ga Maris. Wata rana bayan haka, Gafilo ya zama guguwa ta wurare masu zafi, kuma daga ƙarshe ya kara karfi a cikin guguwa mai zafi a ranar 6 ga Maris, kafin ya sauka a kan Madagascar da wuri washegari. Bayan ya haye tsibirin, Gafilo ya fito cikin Mozambique Channel kuma ya sake sauka a Madagascar a ranar 9 ga Maris. Bayan zagaye na kwana uku a kan ƙasa, tsarin ya isa Tekun Indiya a ranar 13 ga Maris, kuma ya sauya zuwa cikin mummunan yanayi a ranar 14 ga Maris. Gafilo ya zama extratropical washegari kuma ya raunana, kafin ya ɓace a ranar 18 ga Maris.

## Tarihin yanayi
Wani rikici ya samo asali a kudancin Diego Garcia a ranar 29 ga Fabrairu, kuma Météo-France La Réunion (MFR) ya inganta Taron da aka gano a cikin kwarin ruwan sama zuwa rikici na wurare masu zafi a rana mai zuwa. A ranar 2 ga watan Maris, kodayake an fallasa cibiyar ne saboda matsakaiciyar iska ta gabas, Cibiyar Gargadi ta Hadari (JTWC) ta ba da Gargadi na Tsarin Guguwa na Tropical a kan tsarin da ke arewacin tudun subtropical, bisa ga ingantaccen tsari na zurfin convection da matsakaiciyar fitowar pole. Koyaya, hanzarin sa na wucin gadi a wannan rana ya rage shear iska a tsaye. Yayin da cibiyar ta zama karkashin tsari mai zurfi a ranar 3 ga Maris, tsarin ya kara karfi a cikin mummunan yanayi na wurare masu zafi, sannan kuma guguwa mai matsakaici mai suna Gafilo ta Cibiyar Ba da Shawara ta Tropical Cyclone a Mauritius, jim kadan kafin MFR har ma ya inganta Gafilo zuwa guguwa ta wurare masu zafi daga baya. Lokacin da tsarin ya ragu kuma ya bi diddigin yamma-arewa maso yamma tare da iyakar arewacin ginin subtropical, ya kai ƙarfin rukuni na 1 a kan sikelin iska na Saffir-Simpson marigayi a ranar 3 ga Maris. Cikakken tsari na guguwar daga 4 zuwa 8 Maris yayin da ta wuce ta kudu maso yammacin Tekun Indiya ta TRMM ta rubuta ta hanyar hotunan tauraron dan adam. TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) manufa ce ta hadin gwiwa tsakanin NASA da hukumar sararin samaniya ta Japan JAXA . 

Kodayake iska mai bushewa ta rage zurfin convection a ranar 4 ga Maris, MFR ta inganta Gafilo zuwa guguwa ta wurare masu zafi saboda ido mai laushi, lokacin da tsarin ya fara fadada yaduwar sa a gefen agogo da kuma biye da yamma zuwa kudu maso yamma. Ta hanyar tashoshin fitarwa biyu, Gafilo ya sami zurfi mai sauri kuma ya kai ƙarfin rukuni na 4 a kan sikelin iska na Saffir-Simpson a ranar 5 ga Maris, yayin da MFR kuma ya inganta Gafilo zuwa guguwa mai zafi mai tsanani a ƙarshen wannan rana. A ranar 6 ga watan Maris, ban da zafin jiki na teku mai zafi sama da 29 ° C, tashar fitowa ta uku daga yamma ta sanya yanayin guguwar ya fi dacewa. Sabili da haka, MFR ta inganta Gafilo zuwa guguwa mai zafi sosai tare da ƙayyadadden zagaye da dumi  km; 23  diamita ido a 06Z, lokacin da ya kai matsayi na 5 a kan Saffir-Simpson guguwar iska. A 12Z, Gafilo ya kai ƙarfinsa ta hanyar iskar da ta kai minti goma da ta kai  km / h; 144  da kuma matsin yanayi yana raguwa zuwa   , kodayake hotunan microwave sun nuna cewa sake zagayowar ido ya fara.&nbsp;

Ba da daɗewa ba bayan ɗan raunana saboda hulɗar ƙasa, Gafilo ya sauka a kusa da Antalaha, Madagascar da wuri a ranar 7 ga Maris. Ba kamar sauran guguwa ba, bakin ciki na ƙasa kawai ya raunana a hankali, saboda yawan yaduwarsa da ba a saba gani ba wanda ke sa ɓangaren waje har yanzu yana cikin teku. A wannan rana, Gafilo ya bi kudu maso yamma tare da iyakar arewa maso yammacin wani tudun da ke kudu maso gabas. Kafin tsakar rana a ranar 8 ga watan Maris, Gafilo ya isa Tashar Mozambique a matsayin guguwa mai matsakaici wanda iskõkinsa mafi karfi sun kasance a yankin arewa. A ranar 9 ga watan Maris, Gafilo ya kusan tsayawa sannan ya bi kudu maso gabas tare da gefen yammacin tudun da ke gabas. MFR ta inganta tsarin zuwa guguwa mai tsanani ta wurare masu zafi da ke goyan bayan bayanan da aka lura daga tashoshin Malagasy da tsakar rana; duk da haka, JTWC ta bincika cewa guguwar ta zama ƙasa da ƙarfin rukuni 1 a kan sikelin iska na Saffir-Simpson a lokaci guda a cikin mafi kyawun bayanan su.

Marigayi a ranar 9 ga watan Maris, Gafilo ya sauka a arewacin Morombe, Madagascar, kuma tsarin ya fara yin madauki na kwana uku a kudancin Madagascar. Don tsarin ya kara raunana bayan sauka, JTWC ya bincika cewa Gafilo ya ɓace a ƙasa a ƙarshen 11 ga Maris, da kuma MFR ya ba da gargadi na ƙarshe a kan bakin ciki wanda ya fara bin kudu maso gabas da wuri a ranar 12 ga Maris. Abin mamaki, MFR ta fara sake bayar da gargadi game da tsarin da ba a tsara shi ba a tsakar rana a ranar 12 ga Maris, yayin da ake sa ran sauran cibiyar za ta koma kasashen waje. Marigayi a wannan rana, JTWC ta ba da Gargadi na Tsarin Guguwa na Tropical a kan ragowar ƙasa, saboda ingantaccen zurfin convection a kan cibiyar watsawa mai ƙarancin matakin, fitowar pole zuwa ga igiya da raunin iska mai tsaye.

Da farko a ranar 13 ga watan Maris, Gafilo ya isa Tekun Indiya a matsayin rikici na wurare masu zafi; JTWC ta soke wani gargadi na Taron Guguwa na Tropical a kan tsarin saboda cibiyar kewayawa mai ƙarancin tsari da matsakaiciyar iska mai tsayi. Gafilo ya sauya zuwa cikin wani mummunan yanayi a kudancin La Réunion a ranar 14 ga watan Maris, lokacin da aikin convective mai zurfi ke karuwa tare da ingantaccen tsari na ƙaramin rukuni sama da cibiyar watsawa mai ƙarancin matakin saboda kyakkyawan bambancin matakin sama da zafin jiki na teku mai dumi na 26 ° C zuwa 29 ° C. Bayan ya kai ƙaramin ƙarfi a cikin lokacin subtropical a ƙarshen 14 ga Maris, Gafilo ya fara bin gabas kuma ya sauya zuwa cikin matsanancin yanayi a ranar 15 ga Maris. Saboda wani gini subtropical ridge da ke kudu maso yamma, extratropical depression ya ragu kuma ya juya zuwa arewa maso yamma a ranar 16 ga Maris. Bayan sannu a hankali ya raunana, tsarin ya ɓace gaba ɗaya a ranar 18 ga Maris.&nbsp;&nbsp;

## Manazarta