Canjin yanayi a Rasha

Canjin yanayi yana da mummunar tasiri ga Yanayin Rasha, gami da matsakaicin yanayin zafi da hazo, da kuma narkewar permafrost, gobarar daji, ambaliyar ruwa da raƙuman zafi. Canje-canje na iya shafar ambaliyar ruwa a cikin gida, Ambaliyar bakin teku da karuwar lalacewa sun rage rufe dusar ƙanƙara da narkewar kankara, kuma a ƙarshe zai iya haifar da asarar jinsuna da canje-canje a cikin aikin yanayin halittu.

Rasha na daga cikin Yarjejeniyar Paris cewa ya kamata a ci gaba da hauhawar matsakaicin zafin jiki na duniya a kasa da 2 ° C. Tun da Rasha ita ce ta huɗu mafi girma a duniya,  ana buƙatar mataki don rage Tasirin canjin yanayi a duka yankuna da na duniya.&nbsp;
 

## Rashin iskar gas

## Tasirin yanayi

### Yanayin zafi da sauye-sauyen yanayi
A cewar IPCC (2007), canjin yanayi ya shafi karuwar zafin jiki wanda ya fi girma a mafi girman latitudes na arewa a hanyoyi da yawa. Misali, kula da aikin gona da gandun daji a Arewacin Hemisphere mafi girma latitudes, kamar su shuka amfanin gona a baya, mafi girman yawan gobarar daji, canje-canje a cikin rikice-rikice na gandun daji saboda kwari, karuwar haɗarin lafiya saboda raƙuman zafi, canje-canjen cututtukan cututtuka da ƙwayoyin cuta da canje-canje ga ayyukan ɗan adam a cikin Arctic, misali farauta da tafiya a kan dusar ƙanƙara da kankara. Daga 1900 zuwa 2005, hazo ya karu a arewacin Turai da arewacin da tsakiyar Asiya. Kwanan nan waɗannan sun haifar da karuwar GDP. Canje-canje na iya shafar ambaliyar ruwa a cikin gida, Ambaliyar bakin teku da yawa da karuwar lalacewa, rage rufe dusar ƙanƙara da asarar jinsuna.
   

#### Canjin zafin jiki har zuwa yanzu
A halin yanzu, matsakaicin zafin jiki na shekara-shekara a yankunan yammacin Rasha yana tashi da 0.4 - 0.5 ° C kowace shekara goma. Wannan ya faru ne saboda karuwar yawan kwanakin zafi, da kuma raguwar yawan kwanakin sanyi, tun daga shekarun 1970. Abubuwan da suka faru na kwanakin zafi sosai a lokacin rani sun karu a cikin shekaru 50 da suka gabata, kuma yawan lokutan bazara tare da kwanakin zafi sosai tsakanin 1980 da 2012 ya ninka sau biyu idan aka kwatanta da shekaru talatin da suka gabata.&nbsp;

A cikin shekaru 100 da suka gabata, dumama a Rasha ya kasance a kusa da digiri 1.29 Celsius, yayin da dumama a kan sikelin duniya ya kasance, digiri 0.74, bisa ga Rahoton Bincike na huɗu na IPCC,  yana nuna cewa dumama yanayin Rasha yana faruwa da sauri fiye da matsakaici. A cikin Arctic, alal misali, yanayin zafi yana tashi da ninki biyu na matsakaicin duniya, digiri 0.2 a kowace shekara goma a cikin shekaru 30 da suka gabata. Yawan zafin jiki na shekara-shekara da mafi ƙanƙanta duka sun karu, kuma yawan kwanakin da sanyi ya ragu a cikin shekaru 100 da suka gabata. Warming ya fi bayyane a lokacin hunturu da bazara, kuma ya fi tsanani a gabashin kasar,  a cewar Hukumar Inter-Agency ta Tarayyar Rasha kan Canjin Yanayi, 2002. A sakamakon haka, ana ganin tsawo na lokacin ciyayi a yawancin Rasha, tare da farkon bazara, kuma daga baya farkon kaka.

#### Canjin ruwan sama har zuwa yanzu
Tsarin sauye-sauyen hazo yana da wuyar ganewa, a matsakaita, karuwar ruwan sama na shekara-shekara (7.2 mm / 10 shekaru) tsakanin 1976 da 2006 an lura da su a Rasha gabaɗaya. Koyaya, an kuma lura da alamu daban-daban na yanki. A bayyane tsari ne karuwa a cikin bazara precipitation na 16.8mm a kowace shekara goma a Siberia da yammacin sassan Rasha, da kuma gaba ɗaya raguwa a cikin precipitation a gabashin yankuna.&nbsp;

Canje-canje a cikin dusar ƙanƙara da zurfin a cikin shekaru 30 da suka gabata sun nuna cewa dusar ƙara ta ragu sosai a yankunan yammacin Rasha, kamar yadda ya yi a arewacin arewa gabaɗaya. An kuma lura da raguwar zurfin dusar ƙanƙara a sassan yammacin ƙasar. Babban dalilin wannan shine hauhawar yanayin zafi. Koyaya, karuwar ruwan sama a mafi girman latitudes ya haifar da karuwar da aka lura a tarin dusar ƙanƙara a yankuna inda yanayin hunturu ya kasance mai sanyi sosai.

#### Ruwan kankara da canjin kankara har zuwa yanzu
Binciken tauraron dan adam na canje-canje a cikin kankara na teku sun nuna raguwar kankara a cikin shekaru 20 da suka gabata, musamman a cikin Arctic. Ruwan kankara na koguna a cikin Tekun Baltic na Rasha ya ragu a cikin shekaru 50 da suka gabata. Tsawon lokacin da kogin ya rufe kankara a yankin ya ragu da tsakanin kwanaki 25 zuwa 40 a matsakaici. Hakazalika, kaurin rufe kankara ya ragu (ta hanyar 15 - 20%) a rabi na biyu na karni na 20. 

A sakamakon karuwar yanayin zafi da sauye-sauyen yanayin hazo, an rage kankara a Rasha da tsakanin 10 zuwa 70% a kashi na biyu na karni na 20. Bambance-bambance a cikin canjin kankara sun dogara da takamaiman yanayin yanayi na gida.

#### Canjin zafin jiki da aka tsara
Ana sa ran canjin yanayi zai haifar da yanayin zafi a mafi yawan yankuna na duniya, amma a Rasha ana sa ran wannan karuwar za ta fi matsakaicin duniya girma. Ya zuwa 2020, matsakaicin yanayin zafi na shekara-shekara ya karu da kusan 1.1 ° C idan aka kwatanta da lokacin 1980-1999, kuma ana sa ran yanayin zafi zai ci gaba da tashi, yana ƙaruwa da tsakanin 2.6 da 3.4 ° C nan da 2050 (dangane da samfurin RCP da aka yi amfani da shi).  Ana sa ran hauhawar mafi ƙarancin zafin jiki na yau da kullun ya fi na yawan zafin jiki ya yau da kullun, yana rage bambancin tsakanin su biyu. Bugu da kari, ana sa ran yawan kwanaki tare da sanyi zai ragu da tsakanin kwanaki 10 zuwa 30 a yankuna daban-daban na kasar, tare da raguwa mafi girma a sassan yammacin Rasha (da Gabashin Turai).  Zuwa 2100, matsakaicin yanayin zafi na shekara-shekara idan aka kwatanta da lokacin 1960-1990 ana sa ran ya karu mafi yawa a yankin Arctic, da kusan 5.5 ° C. A cikin yankuna na tsakiya na kasar, ana sa ran karamin karuwa na 4.5 - 5.5 °C, kuma a yankuna na kudu da yamma, karuwa tsakanin 3.5 da 4 °C.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Yawancin samfuran tsinkaye suna nuna cewa ana sa ran karuwar zafin jiki mafi girma a cikin yanayin zafi na yau da kullun, musamman a sassan yammacin Rasha (da gabashin Turai).  Wannan karuwar yanayin hunturu yana da alaƙa da raguwar dusar ƙanƙara sakamakon canjin yanayi. Ƙananan dusar ƙanƙara ta hunturu saboda yanayin zafi yana haifar da rage tasirin albedo. Wannan yana haifar da karancin radiation na rana da ke nunawa daga ƙasa, kuma ƙasa tana shawo kan ƙasa, yana ƙara yanayin iska. Yanayin zafi mafi girma yana haifar da ƙaramin dusar ƙanƙara, yana samar da madauki mai kyau.

Arctic, wanda ya zama babban ɓangare na yankin Rasha, yana da matukar damuwa ga canjin yanayi kuma yana dumama da sauri fiye da matsakaicin duniya. Dubi kuma: "Canjin yanayi a cikin Arctic".

Canjin yanayi da karuwar zafin jiki da ke tattare da shi zai kara karfin raƙuman zafi a Rasha. Rashin zafi mai tsanani kamar wanda ya buge Rasha da gabashin Turai a cikin 2010 (lokaci mafi zafi a cikin shekaru 500 da suka gabata a wannan yankin) zai zama mai yuwuwa, wanda zai haifar da karuwar mutuwar da ke da alaƙa da zafi da asarar tattalin arziki.

#### Canje-canje na hazo da aka tsara
Yawancin samfuran da Yanayin fitarwa suna nuna, a shekara ta 2100, ana sa ran matsakaicin ruwan sama na shekara-shekara zai karu a kan mafi yawan Rasha idan aka kwatanta da lokacin 1960-1990.  Ana sa ran karuwar ruwan sama mafi girma na >20% a yankunan arewacin kasar, tare da yawancin sauran yankuna da ke fuskantar karuwar tsakanin 10 da 20%. Yawancin wannan karuwar ana sa ran za su kasance a cikin ruwan sama na hunturu. Koyaya, ana sa ran raguwar hazo a yankunan kudancin Rasha, musamman a kudu maso yamma da Siberia.

Gabaɗaya, canjin yanayi zai haifar da raguwar dusar ƙanƙara a yawancin yankuna na Rasha. Ƙaruwar da aka tsara a cikin ruwan sama na hunturu a mafi yawan sassan ƙasar zai kasance saboda ruwan sama, rage yawan dusar ƙanƙara da ƙaruwa da ruwan sanyi. A halin yanzu, a Siberia, ana sa ran karuwar ruwan sama zai fadi a matsayin dusar ƙanƙara, duk da haka wannan zai haifar da tarawar dusar ƙara a cikin hunturu sannan ya biyo bayan narkewa cikin sauri a cikin bazara, yana ƙara haɗarin ambaliyar ruwa.

#### Tsarin rufe kankara da canje-canje na kankara
Yawancin canje-canje a cikin kankara da canjin yanayi ya kawo a Rasha zai faru a cikin Arctic. Idan aka kwatanta da lokacin 1910-1959, ana sa ran yankin da kankara ta rufe a cikin Arctic zai ci gaba da raguwa a cikin karni na 21, tare da matsakaicin kankara (a watan Maris) yana raguwa da kusan 2% a kowace shekara goma, kuma mafi ƙarancin kankara (a watan Satumba) yana ragu da kusan 7% a kowace shekara. Rushewar kankara yana da haɗari sosai ga mazaunin bears da sauran nau'ikan Arctic da tsarin halittu gaba ɗaya. Zai iya haifar da karuwa a cikin abubuwan da suka faru na kankara da kuma rushewar bakin teku.

Don ƙarin bayani game da takamaiman tasirin Canjin yanayi a cikin Arctic, don Allah duba labarin "Canjin yanayi a Arctic".

### Ruwan sanyi
 
Permafrost ƙasa ce da aka daskare shekaru biyu ko fiye. A mafi yawan yankunan Arctic yana daga 'yan kaɗan zuwa daruruwan mita. Rashin narkewar gashi na iya zama babban abin damuwa.

Rashin sanyi yana wakiltar barazana ga ababen more rayuwa na masana'antu. A watan Mayu na shekarar 2020 narkewar permafrost a Norilsk-Taimyr Energy's Thermal Power Plant No. 3 ya haifar da tankin ajiyar mai ya rushe, ambaliyar koguna na cikin gida tare da 21,000 cubic mita (17,500 ton) na man diesel. An bayyana zubar da mai na Norilsk na 2020 a matsayin zubar da man fetur na biyu mafi girma a tarihin Rasha na zamani.

### Wutar daji
IPCC ya nuna cewa yanayin zafi mafi girma na iya kara yawan gobarar daji. A Rasha, wannan ya haɗa da haɗarin gobarar turba. Wutar daji ke fitowa daga turare na iya zama mafi muni ga lafiyar ɗan adam fiye da gobarar daji. A cewar Wetlands International gobarar daji ta Rasha ta 2010 galibi 80-90% ne daga wuraren da aka zubar da ruwa. Rashin ruwa da aka cire yana haifar da kashi 6% na hayakin dumama na duniya. Iska ta Moscow ta cika da hayakin wuta a watan Yulin 2010 kuma ganuwar yankin ta kasance ƙasa da mita 300. Koyaya, ƙoƙarin sabunta turba na baya-bayan nan a yankin Moscow biyo bayan gobarar daji ta 2010 sun rage haɗarin mummunar gobara a nan gaba.

### Taiga

Taiga wani yanki ne wanda yafi kunshe da gandun daji na  (inda pines, spruce da larch suka mamaye murfin itace), wanda yafi yawa daga yamma zuwa gabashin Rasha. Wannan babban yankin gandun daji yana aiki ne a matsayin muhimmin sink carbon wanda ke iya tarawa da adana carbon, wanda ke taimakawa wajen rage yawan CO2 a cikin yanayi. Yawancin carbon ana adana su a cikin turflands da wetlands.

### Tundra
Tundra wani yanki ne wanda ke nuna rashin bishiyoyi saboda yanayin zafi da kuma gajeren lokacin girma. Shuke-shuke a cikin tundra a maimakon haka sun hada da shrubs, sedges, mosses, lichens da ciyawa. Rasha ta ƙunshi babban rabo na Arctic tundra biome. Karin zafin jiki wanda canjin yanayi ya haifar yana haifar da lokutan girma masu tsawo da zafi a cikin tundra. Wannan kuma yana haifar da karuwar yawan amfanin gona na tundra biome, wanda a cikin dogon lokaci zai iya haifar da gandun daji na arewa don mamaye tundra, canza yanayin halittu. A halin yanzu, rarraba kudancin gandun daji na boreal na iya komawa arewa, saboda karuwar yanayin zafi, damuwa game da fari, karin gobarar daji da sababbin nau'in kwari.

## Tasirin da aka yi wa mutane

### Tasirin ga 'yan asalin ƙasar
 
Canjin yanayi ya shafi salon rayuwar gargajiya na 'yan asalin Arewacin Rasha. Kimanin mutane miliyan 2.5 suna zaune a yankin Arctic. Yawancin 'yan asalin Rasha suna cikin yankunan Arctic da Siberian.

Mutanen Siberia da yankunan Gabas ta Tsakiya sun dogara da yanayi na ƙarni da yawa don kiwo da kamun kifi. Saboda sauye-sauyen hunturu, reindeer suna da iyakantaccen damar zuwa lichens saboda kankara da aka kafa a ƙasa, yana barazanar kiwon reindeer na gargajiya na Sami da Nenet. Masu bincike sun lura cewa ko da ƙananan canje-canjen yanayi suna shafar rayuwar makiyaya ta Nenets. Canjin yanayi ya kuma haifar da raguwar dabbobin ruwa, yana lalata kifi na gargajiya.

Cibiyar Taimako ga 'yan asalin Arewa ta lura cewa Rasha ba ta da shirin yin lissafin yiwuwar tasirin canjin yanayi a yankunan' yan asalin. Yawancin ƙungiyoyin 'yan asalin muhalli da na muhalli an ayyana su a matsayin wakilan ƙasashen waje ta Tarayyar Rasha.

### Tasirin Tattalin Arziki
Canjin yanayi a Rasha an tabbatar da shi don nuna mummunan tasiri ga tattalin arzikin kasar. Aikin noma na kasar yana fama da asarar tattalin arziki saboda dogaro da yanayin yanayi da yanayin yanayi. Ana sa ran yawan amfanin gona a Rasha zai ragu da kashi 17% nan da shekara ta 2050, don haka yana shafar farashin kayan aikin gona a kasuwar duniya. Zuwa shekara ta 2030, an kiyasta farashin amfanin gona zai tashi sosai: 29% don alkama, 33% don shinkafa da 47% don masara.

Rashin ruwa na 2010 da 2012 a Rasha ya biyo bayan karuwar farashin Rye, alkama da sha'ir a kasar, don haka yana nuna ƙarfin abubuwan yanayi akan amfanin gona.

Baya ga yanayin tarihi, yanayin yanayi na baya-bayan nan ya ci gaba da jaddada rashin lafiyar aikin gona na Rasha ga abubuwan da suka faru na yanayi mai tsanani. Misali, a watan Mayu na shekara ta 2024, wani sanyi da ba a tsammani ya mamaye manyan yankunan noma a cikin abin da ake kira baƙar fata, gami da yankunan Voronezh, Tambov, da Lipetsk. Wannan daskarewa na yanayi ya lalata kusan hekta 265,000 na amfanin gona a Voronezh kadai, wanda ya haifar da asarar aikin gona. Abubuwan da suka faru kamar waɗannan ba kawai suna shafar tattalin arzikin gida ba har ma suna da tasiri ga kasuwannin duniya. Lalacewar daga sanyi ya haifar da raguwar hasashen girbi na alkama, yana tura farashin alkama na duniya zuwa matakin mafi girma tun watan Agusta 2023.

Rasha a cikin sauyin yanayi, wanda masana da yawa a manyan jami'o'i suka samar, sun ce Rasha tana mai da hankali kan yakin Ukraine kuma tana dogara da man fetur da iskar gas don tallafawa wannan kokarin. Kasar na iya fama da batutuwan da suka shafi yanayi, amma wannan ba shine babbar damuwa ba a lokacin yakin. Rasha kuma tana amfani da arzikin mai da iskar gas don biyan shirye-shiryen jin dadin jama'a. 

## Al'umma da al'adu
Yunkurin kare muhalli wani yunkuri ne mai girma a Rasha kuma ya ci gaba zuwa siffofi da siffofi daban-daban, kamar kamfen ɗin da ke da niyyar magance matsalolin cikin gida da na yanki amma kuma don magance damuwa ciki har da gurɓataccen yanayi, fadada masana'antu, gandun daji marasa dorewa da ci gaba. Kusan rabin yawan mutanen Rasha (56%) ba su da amincewa ga hukumomin kasar idan ya zo ga al'amuran muhalli kuma kashi 35% na yawan jama'a suna shirye su shiga cikin zanga-zangar muhalli.

## Manazarta