Guguwar Batsirai

Guguwar Tropical mai tsanani Batsirai guguwa ce mai kisa wacce ta shafi Madagascar a watan Fabrairun 2022, ta zama guguwa mafi karfi da ta mamaye Madagascar tun lokacin Guguwar Enawo a cikin 2017. Ya sauka makonni biyu bayan Guguwar Tropical Ana ta kawo ambaliyar ruwa mai kisa a ƙasar tsibirin a ƙarshen Janairu. Rikicin wurare masu zafi na biyu, guguwa ta farko ta wurare masu zafi, da guguwa mai karfi ta farko ta yankin kudu maso yammacin Tekun Indiya ta 2021-22, Batsirai ya samo asali ne daga rikicin wurare masu wurare masu zafi wanda aka fara lura da shi a ranar 24 ga Janairu 2022. Ya canza cikin ƙarfi kuma ya zama guguwa mai matsakaici a ranar 27 ga Janairun 2022, bayan haka ba zato ba tsammani ya kara karfi cikin Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi. Daga nan sai ya raunana kuma ya yi ƙoƙari ya kara karfi a cikin kwanaki masu zuwa saboda iska mai iska da iska mai bushe, inda ya raunana bayan ɗan lokaci. Bayan haka, ya shiga yanayi mafi kyau, da sauri ya sake karuwa zuwa babban Guguwar Ana Category 4 a kan sikelin Saffir-Simpson yayin da yake motsawa zuwa Madagascar. Guguwar ta sami sauye-sauyen ido a rana mai zuwa, kuma ta canza karfi kafin ta sauka a Madagascar a matsayin guguwa ta Category 3, daga baya ta raunana cikin sauri saboda tsaunuka a tsibirin.

Mauritius da Réunion dukansu sun sami lalacewa daga guguwar, kodayake tasirin ya kasance ƙarami. An bayar da rahoton mutuwar 123 saboda Batsirai, an bayar da rahoton mutuwa 121 a Madagascar kuma an bayar da rahoto ga mutuwar 2 a Mauritius. Yayin da guguwar ta kusanci, Madagascar ta shirya kayan farfadowa, Taron da damuwa game da ambaliyar ruwa mai yawa saboda yanayin ƙasa na ƙasar. Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta goyi bayan shirye-shirye da taimakon agaji bayan guguwar, tunda ana sa ran miliyoyin mutane za su shafi shi. Batsirai ya sauka a kasar da wuri a ranar 5 ga Fabrairu, kuma ya kawo tasiri mai tsanani da kuma rushe wutar lantarki da sadarwa a duk yankunan da abin ya shafa. Dukan garuruwa sun lalace, tare da dubban gine-gine sun lalace ko lalace. Bayan guguwar ta wuce, dubban mutane sun kwashe zuwa mafaka na wucin gadi. Batsirai ya bar akalla mutane 112,000 da suka rasa muhallinsu, kuma gidaje 124,000 sun shafa. Gabaɗaya, Cyclone Batsirai ya haifar da jimlar dala miliyan 200 a cikin lalacewar a duk rayuwar guguwar. [nb 1] Yankunan nan sun shafi shekara guda bayan haka ta hanyar guguwa mai karfi mai suna Cyclone Freddy.

## Tarihin yanayi
Asalin Cyclone Batsirai za a iya gano shi zuwa 23 ga Janairu, lokacin da Ofishin Ma'aikatar Yanayi na Australiya (BoM) ya ba da rahoton cewa an kafa wani wuri mai zafi a waje da yankin Australiya, da kyau zuwa arewa maso yammacin Tsibirin Cocos. Météo-France La Réunion (MFR) [nb 2] ya lura da ƙarancin, tare da Cibiyar Gargadi ta Hadari (JTWC) [nb 3] wanda ya sanya ƙarancin a matsayin Invest 96S. Wannan rikici ya kasance a cikin wani yanayi mai kyau don ci gaba da ci gaba, tare da matakan iska mai zurfi, ana kawar da shi ta Yanayin zafi na teku na kusa da 29-30 ° C (84-86 ° F), saboda haka hukumar ta ba da ƙananan damar yiwuwar Cyclogenesis na wurare masu zafi a cikin sa'o'i 24 masu zuwa. Kwana daya bayan haka a 00:30 UTC, hukumar ta inganta yiwuwar zuwa matsakaici bayan tsarin ya inganta tsarin sa na convective. Daga baya a 21:30 UTC a wannan rana, hukumar ta ba da sanarwar Tsayar da Guguwa ta Tropical (TCFA) don Invest 96S, bayan da ta lura da cibiyar watsawa mai zurfi. A ranar 25 ga watan Janairu, low din ya shiga yankin Australiya, kafin ya fita washegari, lokacin da MFR ta inganta low din zuwa yanayin rikice-rikice na wurare masu zafi. A cewar su, tsarin tsarin ya nuna alamun tsari a hankali tun daga 24 ga Janairu. Cibiyar ta zama mafi kyau tare da girgije mai ƙarancin matakin da ke haɗuwa da ita a cikin tsari mai ƙayyadadden zagaye, yana nuna cewa an kafa zagayawar rufewa. MFR ta ci gaba da inganta shi zuwa mummunan yanayi a karfe 12:00 UTC a wannan rana, yayin da yake ci gaba da haɓaka tsarinsa tare da cibiyarsa mai ƙarancin matakin. Bayan an katse aikinsa na convective a takaice bayan 18:00 UTC saboda iska mai bushe,  JTWC daga baya ya fara ba da shawara game da tsarin kuma ya rarraba shi a matsayin Tropical Cyclone 08S a 03:00 UTC washegari. 

Bayan sa'o'i uku, MFR ta ba da rahoton cewa tsarin ya zama guguwa mai matsakaici, kuma Ma'aikatar Kula da Yanayi ta Mauritius ta kira shi *Batsirai*. [nb 5]  Tsakanin 06:00 UTC da 12:00 UTC, Batsirai ya sami zurfi da sauri kuma ya kara karfi daga guguwa mai zafi zuwa guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a cikin sa'o'i uku. A cewar MFR, an fi son shi da ƙananan girman tsarin da saurin motsi. Har ila yau, ya kafa wani tsakiya na ciki 75 zuwa 90   a diamita. Bayan sa'o'i biyu, JTWC kuma ta inganta shi zuwa guguwa ta wurare masu zafi ta Category 2 a kan sikelin Saffir-Simpson, yayin da ya haɓaka ƙaramin ido a kusan 7  km; 8.1 mi) a diamita. Koyaya, da karfe 18:00 UTC, ya fara raguwa cikin sauri bayan idonsa ya rushe da sauri kuma girgije ya yi zafi. Saboda wadannan dalilai, MFR ta rage shi zuwa guguwa mai zafi. A tsakar dare na 28 ga Janairu, an kara rage shi zuwa guguwa mai matsakaici, bayan ci gaba da raunana tsarin convective. Bayan sa'o'i uku, JTWC ta rage shi zuwa matsayin guguwa mai zafi.

Batsirai ya ci gaba da ƙaruwa bayan da aka ɗaukaka shi zuwa mummunar guguwa mai zafi da ƙarfe 06:00 UTC washegari. Bayan sa'o'i tara, JTWC ta inganta ta zuwa guguwar yanayi mai zafi na Category 1. A 03:00 UTC a ranar 30 ga Janairu, JTWC ta ƙara haɓaka shi zuwa guguwar yanayi mai zafi na Category 2 bayan an lura da ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙaƙƙarfan ƙazamin tsakiya da fasalin idon microwave. MFR ta ƙara haɓaka shi zuwa matsayin guguwar yanayi da tsakar rana. Sa'o'i uku bayan haka, JTWC ta inganta shi zuwa wani guguwar yanayi mai zafi na Category 3, saboda bangon idonta ya faɗaɗa kuma ya haɓaka 5 nmi (kilomita 9.3; 5.8 mi). Duk da haka, wannan bai daɗe ba, kuma ya yi rauni zuwa matsayi na 1 da ƙarfe 03:00 UTC a ranar 1 ga Fabrairu, yayin da idonsa mai siffar pinhole ya rushe kuma bangon idonsa ya lalace, watakila saboda tasirin ƙarar iska ta tsaye. A 15:00 UTC a wannan rana, duk da haka, ya sake ƙarfafawa zuwa matsayi na Category 2, yayin da ya yi nasarar ƙarfafawa kuma yanayin idonsa ya sake bayyana akan hotunan tauraron dan adam. Sa'o'i uku bayan haka, MFR ya inganta shi zuwa wani mummunar guguwa mai zafi.

## Manazarta