Guguwar Cheneso

**Guguwar Tropical Cheneso** ta kasance mahaukaciyar guguwa mai zafi da ta shafi Madagascar a watan Janairun 2023. Guguwar yanayi ta hudu da kuma guguwa ta biyar na 2022-23 Kudu maso Yamma a lokacin guguwar Indiya, Cheneso ta fito ne daga wani yanki na rikice-rikicen yanayi wanda aka fara sa ido a RSMC La Réunion a ranar 17 ga Janairu. Duk da jujjuyawar juzu'i a cikin ƙirar band mai lanƙwasa, tsarin ya zama ɓacin rai na wurare masu zafi a ranar 18 ga Janairu. Bacin rai ya ƙarfafa zuwa cikin Tsananin Guguwar Wuta mai zafi Cheneso a rana mai zuwa. Cheneso ya yi kasa a arewacin Madagascar kuma ya raunana zuwa cikin ciki, kafin ya shiga tashar Mozambique. Daga baya Cheneso ya karfafa zuwa guguwar wurare masu zafi a ranar 25 ga Janairu. Tsarin ya ci gaba da tafiya kudu maso gabas, kafin rikidewa zuwa bakin ciki bayan-na zafi a ranar 29 ga Janairu.

Ofishin Kasa da Kasa na Kula da Bala'i (BNGRC) ya ba da rahoton mutuwar mutane 33 da bacewar 20. Hukumar ta ba da rahoton jimillar mutane 90,870 da abin ya shafa, 34,100 daga cikinsu sun yi gudun hijira. Kusan gidaje 23,600 da makarantu 164 sun lalace. Masu ba da agaji da hukumomi kuma sun goyi bayan shirye-shiryen balaguron balaguro da ayyukan agaji, yayin da ake sa ran za a yi wa miliyoyin mutane illa. Wuraren guda ɗaya ya shafa sakamakon guguwar da ta fi ƙarfin yanayi, Cyclone Freddy makonni biyu bayan haka.

## Tarihin yanayi
Asalin Cheneso za a iya gano shi zuwa wani yanki na shawa mai tsayi da tsawa a kudu da Diego Garcia, wanda Météo–Faransa (MFR) ya fara lura da shi a ranar 10 ga Janairu 2023. Kwanaki uku bayan haka, Cibiyar Gargaɗi ta Haɗin Kan Guguwar (JTWC) ita ma ta fara sa ido kan wuraren da ake tada hankali. Tsarin ya kasance a cikin yanayi mai kyau don haɓakawa, da kuma yanayin zafi na saman teku, ƙasan ƙasa zuwa tsayin iska mai tsayi. Duk da haka, MFR ta ƙaddamar da shawarwari game da yankin yanayi na tashin hankali, yayin da JTWC ta ba da sanarwar Ƙarfafa Ƙarfafawar Cyclone (TCFA) a ranar 17 ga Janairu. Sa'o'i shida bayan haka, MFR ya haɓaka tsarin zuwa yanayin tashin hankali na wurare masu zafi. Hakazalika, JTWC daga baya ta ƙaddamar da shawarwari kan tsarin kuma ta rarraba shi a matsayin Tropical Cyclone 08S.

Zurfafa juzu'i yana lulluɓe cikin ƙirar band mai lanƙwasa, yana sa MFR haɓaka shi zuwa yanayin baƙin ciki na wurare masu zafi. Da karfe 12:00 UTC a ranar 18 ga Janairu, MFR ta kuma inganta tsarin zuwa matsakaicin yanayin guguwa mai zafi, kuma Meteo Madagascar ya sanya masa suna Cheneso. Ba da daɗewa ba bayan haka, Cheneso ya ƙara tsananta zuwa yanayin yanayi mai tsananin zafi. Hotunan tauraron dan adam sun nuna cewa babban abin rufe fuska na tsakiya (CDO) yana lullube cibiyar rarraba ƙananan matakin (LLCC). Cheneso ya ci gaba da tafiya zuwa yamma, kuma a washegari, ta yi kasa a arewacin Madagascar; JTWC ta fitar da gargadi na karshe game da guguwar. Da karfe 18:00 na UTC, MFR ta bayyana cewa Cheneso ya koma bakin ciki. Saboda rashin tabbas game da tsinkayar hanyar guguwar, MFR ta daina ba da shawarwari na ɗan lokaci a ranar 20 ga Janairu. A cikin 21 ga Janairu, Cheneso ya fara fitowa cikin tashar Mozambik, JTWC ta sake sa ido kuma ta bayyana cewa tsarin yana da yuwuwar sake haɓakawa. LLCC ta fara ƙarfafawa tare da ruɗaɗɗen madaɗai masu zurfi a cikin sa. Sakamakon haka, MFR ta sake ƙaddamar da shawarwari a ranar 23 ga Janairu.

Cheneso ya sake samun matsayi na rikice-rikice na wurare masu zafi, duk da haka tsarin ba shi da zurfi mai zurfi kusa da cibiyarsa. Da 14:00 UTC a wannan ranar, JTWC ta sake fitar da TCFA, kuma ta sake inganta tsarin zuwa guguwa mai zafi. Cheneso ya ci gaba da tafiyar da tsarinsa jim kaɗan bayan haka, kuma da ƙarfe 00:00 UTC a ranar 24 ga Janairu, MFR ta haɓaka tsarin zuwa yanayin baƙin ciki na wurare masu zafi. Bayan sa'o'i shida, convection ya karu a kusa da cibiyar, kuma an inganta guguwar zuwa matsakaicin yanayin hadari na wurare masu zafi. Guguwar ta ci gaba da shiryawa tare da kafuwar CDO mai tsanani tare da ido, kuma Cheneso ya karfafa zuwa matsananciyar guguwar yanayi. Da 03:00 UTC a ranar 25 ga Janairu, Cheneso ya ƙarfafa zuwa cikin rukuni na 1-daidai da guguwar cyclone na wurare masu zafi akan ma'aunin iskar Saffir-Simpson (SSHWS), yayin da ta kusanci gabar tekun Madagascar. Guguwar ta ƙara ƙarfafa tare da ƙayyadadden tsari mai lankwasa, wanda ke nuna ƙarfinsa zuwa matsayin guguwar na wurare masu zafi. Da karfe 18:00 na UTC, yanayin ido ya karu yayin da guguwar ta tashi zuwa arewa maso gabas bayan ta tsaya a cikin sa'o'i 6 da suka gabata. Hotunan tauraron dan adam sun nuna cewa annashuwa tam-dam-dam tana yawo a kusa da ido mai cike da gajimare. Cheneso ya fara raguwa da sauri bayan da idonta ya fadi da sauri kuma saman gajimare ya yi zafi. Da karfe 12:00 UTC a ranar 26 ga Janairu, MFR ta rage darajar Cheneso zuwa matsananciyar guguwar yanayi, yayin da take kan hanyar kudu maso gabas.

## Manazarta