Guguwar Alvaro

**Guguwar Tropical ''Alvaro**'' guguwa ce ta wurare masu zafi da ta ratsa Madagascar a lokacin Ranar Sabuwar Shekara. Guguwa ta farko da aka kira ta 2023-24 Kudancin Yammacin Tekun Indiya, Alvaro ta samo asali ne a matsayin rikici na wurare masu zafi a Mozambique Channel. Da yake an yi hasashen zai bunkasa zuwa cikin guguwa mai matsakaici, tashin hankali ya kasance a cikin yanayi mai kyau don karuwa. Binciken kudu maso gabas, an inganta tsarin zuwa mummunan yanayi a ranar 31 ga watan Disamba. Daga baya ya kara karfi a cikin guguwa mai zafi, yana karɓar sunan Alvaro . Alvaro ya ci gaba da motsawa da karuwa duk da shear iska tsaye. A ranar 1 ga watan Janairu, Alvaro ya kara karuwa ya zama Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi kafin ya fadi a kan Gundumar Morombe, Madagascar. Ya raunana zuwa mummunan yanayi na wurare masu zafi bayan ya wuce kan tsaunuka na tsibirin. Alvaro ya sake shiga cikin Tekun Indiya kuma ya sake karuwa cikin guguwa mai zafi. Ba da daɗewa ba bayan sake karuwa, iska mai ƙarfi ta hana duk wani ci gaba na guguwar. Alvaro daga baya ya sauya zuwa cikin mummunan yanayi na wurare masu zafi, an lura da shi na ƙarshe a ranar 4 ga Janairu. An kiyasta cewa jimlar lalacewar ta fi dala miliyan 1.

## Tarihin yanayi
A watan Disamba na shekara ta 2023, MFR ta ƙasa saka idanu kan yiwuwar Cyclogenesis na wurare masu zafi yayin da Raƙuman ruwa na Kelvin da Rossby suka haɗu a yammacin yankin da ke da alhakin hukumar, a gaban wani lokaci mai laushi na oscillation na Madden-Julian; an yi hasashen cewa za a sami karamin hadari na wurare masu wurare masu zafi a kudancin Mozambique Channel a cikin waɗannan yanayi. A ranar 29 ga watan Disamba, wani kwari ya samar da convection tudun maso gabashin Beira, Mozambique wanda ya juya, yayin da haɗuwa da iskõki ke ƙaruwa a cikin tsarin rufewar sararin samaniya. Kashegari, MFR ta rarraba tsarin a matsayin rikici na wurare masu zafi,  kuma ban da haka, JTWC ta fara saka idanu kan rikici.  Binciken kudu maso gabas a ƙarƙashin tasirin tudu, MFR ta kara inganta matsalar zuwa mummunan yanayi a ranar 31 ga watan Disamba. Babban tsakiya mai dumi ya kara karfafawa, wanda ya sa tsarin ya kara karfi a cikin guguwa mai zafi kuma ya karbi sunan Alvaro. Bugu da ƙari, JTWC ta sanya guguwar a matsayin Tropical Cyclone 04S.

A lokacin 1 ga Janairu 2024, Alvaro ya kula da bandeji mai lankwasa da kuma fitowar ido ya sa MFR ta haɓaka tsarin zuwa mummunar guguwa mai zafi, amma bayan lokacin ya ƙare, Alvaro ya sami haɓaka zuwa guguwar wurare masu zafi. Kamar yadda Alvaro ya ci gaba da ƙarfafawa a ƙarƙashin yanayi masu kyau duk da juyar da iska a tsaye a cikin tsakiyar matakin troposphere. Guguwar ta yi kaurin suna a kusa da idonta mai kauri yayin da ta ke da nisan mil 145 (kilomita 269; 167 mi) gabas-arewa-gabas na tsibirin Europa, tana ci gaba da gabas-kudu maso gabas. Da misalin karfe 12:00 UTC, JTWC ta bayyana cewa Alvaro ya yi kololuwa da iskoki masu dorewa na kullin 60 (110 km/h; 69 mph), tare da MFR ya bayyana cewa ya kai kololuwar iskar 60 mai tsayi na mintuna 10 (110 km/h; 69 mph). Bugu da ƙari, MFR kuma ta auna mafi ƙarancin matsi na barometric na tsarin a hectopascals 985 (29.1 inHg). Koyaya, a cikin binciken bayan kakar wasa, MFR ya bayyana cewa a zahiri Alvaro ya yi kololuwa da iskar 65 mai dorewa ta mintuna 10 (120 km/h; 75 mph) da matsi na barometric na hectopascals 982 (29.0 inHg), kuma Alvaro ya sami ɗaukaka zuwa matsayin guguwa mai zafi. Yayin da guguwar ta tunkaro Madagaska, yanayin saman gajimare ya ragu sannu a hankali yayin da yake dumama, inda a hankali ido ke bacewa saboda cizon iska.[6] A 19:20 CIN (16:20 UTC) a wannan rana, Alvaro ya yi kasa a gundumar Morombe, Madagascar a matsayin guguwar yanayi mai tsanani, tare da ci gaba da iska mai tsawon kilomita 100 a cikin sa'a (62 mph). Alvaro ya yi rauni cikin sauri saboda tsaunuka na ƙasar tsibirin, tare da raƙuman ruwan sama da ke kusa da su. Da karfe 12:00 UTC na 2 ga Janairu, Alvaro ya raunana zuwa cikin ɓacin rai kuma ya baje kolin yawo zuwa hotunan tauraron dan adam, yana riƙe da juzu'i sama da quadrant na gabas.[9] Alvaro ya sake shiga cikin Tekun Indiya a ranar 3 ga Janairu, yana sake komawa cikin guguwar yanayi mai matsakaici. Ba da daɗewa ba bayan haka, Alvaro zai faɗa cikin iska mai ƙarfi yayin da busasshiyar iska ta mamaye guguwar, duk da fitowar da wani jirgin saman ƙasa ya yi. Da karfe 18:00 UTC, MFR ta ware Alvaro a matsayin bakin ciki na bayan zafi bayan guguwar ta rasa halayenta na wurare masu zafi. MFR ta fitar da sanarwar ta ƙarshe akan Alvaro a ranar 4 ga Janairu, yayin da tsarin ke hulɗa da yankin baroclinic. Cike da rauni a hankali, ragowar Alvaro sun watse a ranar 6 ga Janairu.

## Shirye-shiryen da tasiri
Da yake tsammanin faɗuwar Alvaro, sabis na meteorological na Madagascar (Meteo Madagascar) ya tada faɗakarwa mai launin rawaya ga gundumomin Morondava, Manja, Morombe, da Toliara a ranar 31 ga Disamba,  wanda za a inganta shi zuwa ja faɗakarwar rana ɗaya bayan haka yayin da Alvaro ya sauka.  An shawarci masu aikin jirgin ruwa a fadin Maintirano da Toliara da su kasance daga teku. Magajin garin Morombe ya ba da rahoton lalacewar dukiya. Sashe da yawa na birnin sun ambaliya, kuma mazauna da yawa sun kwashe daga gidajensu, suna amfani da makarantu da ƙauyuka masu nisa a matsayin wuraren zama. Yankunan kudancin Madagascar sun ba da rahoton bishiyoyi da aka tumɓuke, rufin da aka fashe, da kuma kayan aikin da suka lalace, suna buƙatar taimakon kasa da kasa. Kusan mutane 33,000 a Madagascar sun kamu da cutar Alvaro, tare da sama da 17,000 da suka rasa muhallinsu. Yankunan Haute Matsiatra, Atsimo-Andrefana, da Menabe sun sha wahala daga guguwar.

An sake mayar da mutanen da suka rasa muhallinsu zuwa cibiyoyin kwashewa 36. Kimanin ƙauyuka 241 sun lalace gaba ɗaya, kuma gidaje 426 sun lalace ban da makarantu 15. Mutane goma sha tara ne guguwar ta kashe. Don mayar da martani ga bala'in, Shirin Abinci na Duniya (WFP) ya ba da shinkafa, mai, sauro, da sauran kayan aiki ga yankunan da abin ya shafa,  tare da hadin gwiwar Hukumar Kula da Ci gaban Duniya ta Amurka (USAID). 

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