Guguwar Kesiny

**guguwa Tropical Kesiny** ita ce guguwa ta farko da aka rubuta - daidai da guguwa mafi ƙanƙanta - don sauka a watan Mayu a tudun maso yammacin Tekun Indiya. Guguwa ta ƙarshe mai suna na lokacin guguwa na Kudu maso Yammacin Tekun Indiya na 2001-02, Kesiny ya samo asali ne a ranar 2 ga Mayu daga wani rami kusa da ma'auni. Halitta ta kasance sakamakon karuwa a cikin Madden-Julian oscillation, wanda kuma ya ba da gudummawa ga Oman guguwa biyu a arewacin Tekun Indiya wanda ya buge Oman, da kuma wani saiti na guguwa a arewa maso gabas da kudu maso gabashin Tekun Indiya. Kesiny da farko ya koma kudu maso gabas, amma daga baya ya juya zuwa kudu maso yamma saboda karfafawa. A ranar 6 ga watan Mayu, ya kara karfi a cikin guguwa mai zafi, amma daga baya ya raunana kuma ba a sa ran sake karfafawa ba. Koyaya, Kesiny ya haɓaka ido kuma ya sake ƙarfafawa cikin guguwa mai zafi a ranar 9 ga Mayu, ya kai saman iskõki na  km / h (81  kafin ya buge Madagascar kusan    kudu maso gabashin Antsiranana. Ya raunana yayin da yake tsallaka kasar, kuma bayan ya juya zuwa kudu ya sake buga kasar kafin ya ɓace a ranar 11 ga Mayu.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

A duk faɗin Madagascar, Cyclone Kesiny ya zubar da ruwan sama mai yawa, ya kai   in)  kwanaki uku a Toamasina, birni na biyu mafi girma a masara. Ruwan sama ya haifar da laka da ambaliyar ruwa a gabashin kasar, ya lalata shinkafa da amfanin gona kuma ya bar mutane 5,000 ba tare da gida ba. Akalla gadoji 33 sun lalace, kuma hanyoyi da yawa sun lalace. Jimillar mutane 33 ne suka mutu, kuma mutane 1,200 ne suka ji rauni. Guguwar ta faru a tsakiyar rikicin siyasa, inda manyan 'yan takara biyu na Zaben shugaban kasa na Madagascar a shekara ta 2001 suka ayyana kansu a matsayin masu nasara; wanda ke aiki, wanda ya rasa, ya ayyana Toamasina a matsayin babban birnin, kuma rashin kwanciyar hankali na siyasa ya rushe kokarin agaji.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

## Tarihin yanayi
A ƙarshen Afrilu 2002, wani yanki na convection, ko tsawa, ya ci gaba zuwa yammacin kudu maso yammacin Diego Garcia a kudu maso tsakiyar Tekun Indiya, wanda ke da alaƙa da rami kusa da ma'auni. Tsarin yana da yaduwa mai yawa, kuma da farko ya koma sannu a hankali zuwa gabas-kudu maso gabas. Ya ci gaba ne saboda karuwa a cikin Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), wanda ya koma gabas a fadin Tekun Indiya. Wannan tsarin ya haifar da rikici a arewacin Tekun Indiya wanda daga baya ya buge Oman a matsayin guguwa mai zafi. Irin waɗannan tsarin lokaci guda a bangarorin biyu a wasu lokuta suna faruwa a cikin bazara ko kaka; a watan Mayu na shekara ta 2002, bugun MJO mai ƙarfi ya samar da irin waɗannan guguwa guda biyu, daga baya ya samar da saiti a gabashin Tekun Indiya wanda ya zama mummunan rauni wanda ya buge Myanmar da Tropical Storm Errol zuwa kudu maso yammacin Indonesia. A ranar 30 ga Afrilu, Météo-France (MFR) ta rarraba tsarin a matsayin yanki na yanayin damuwa. An shirya shi a hankali, wanda ya sa Cibiyar Gargadi ta Hadari (JTWC) ta ba da faɗakarwar fashewar Guguwa ta wurare masu zafi a ƙarshen Mayu 2,  a lokacin da MFR ta rarraba shi a matsayin Tropical Disturbance 14.  Hadari ya zama mafi mayar da hankali a kusa da cibiyar da aka ƙayyade sosai, kuma tare da ƙananan iska, tsarin ya ƙarfafa cikin Tropical Depression 14 a ranar 3 ga Mayu. A wannan rana, JTWC ta fara ba da shawara game da Guguwar Tropical 23S.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Ci gaban ruwan sama da kuma tsakiya mai zurfi, bakin ciki ya kara karfi a cikin Tropical Storm Kesiny da wuri a ranar 4 ga Mayu. Ci gaba da karuwa a hankali, kodayake da farko convection ya kasance a yammacin cibiyar. Daga baya yaduwar ta koma ƙarƙashin tsawa, kuma tsaunuka masu ƙarfi sun juya Kesiny zuwa yamma- tudun maso yamma. A ƙarshen ranar 5 ga Mayu, ido mai tsayi ya fara samuwa a cikin convection, wanda ke nuna alamar guguwa mai ƙarfi. A wannan rana, MFR ta inganta Kesiny zuwa guguwa mai tsanani. Da farko a ranar 6 ga Mayu, JTWC ta inganta guguwar zuwa daidai da guguwa mafi ƙanƙanta, tare da matsakaicin minti 1 na iska mai ɗorewa na 120 km / h (75 mph). A wannan lokacin fitowar ta zama sananne a arewa da kudu, kodayake raguwar fitowar ta sa Kesiny ya raunana. A ranar 7 ga watan Mayu, an fallasa yaduwar daga convection,  kuma ana sa ran sake karuwa kaɗan. A wannan lokacin, guguwar ta kasance kusan kilomita 650 (400 mi) a gabashin arewacin Madagascar

## Tasirin da sakamakonsa

Guguwar Kesiny ta mamaye Madagascar a lokacin rikici na siyasa bayan Zaben shugaban kasa na Madagascar a shekara ta 2001.  A cikin zaben, shugaban kasar Didier Ratsiraka ya sha kashi a hannun Marc Ravalomanana, amma ya ki amincewa da sakamakon; bayan zaben, Ratsiraka ta ayyana birnin Toamasina a matsayin sabon babban birnin kasar. Rikicin siyasa ya haifar da matsaloli bayan guguwar a rarraba abinci,  kuma cibiyar aiki ta Ratsiraka a cikin birni ta lalace.  A lokacin guguwar, Toamasina ta fuskanci ambaliyar ruwa mai tsanani, wanda ya tilasta daruruwan mazauna su kwashe gidajensu. Masu sa kai na gaggawa sun ba da ruwa da abinci ga mazauna da abin ya shafa. Ma'aikata daga Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya da Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) sun ba da taimakon likita ga mazauna Toamasina a lokacin guguwar. Hanyoyin da suka lalace sun ba da gudummawa ga raguwar tattalin arziki, bayan manyan motoci ba su iya amfani da hanyoyi da gadoji a gabashin kasar ba. A watan Oktoba, rikicin siyasa ya ƙare, kuma gwamnati ta gyara mafi yawan kayan aikin da suka lalace. Kudin gyaran hanyoyi da gadoji ya kai kimanin dala miliyan 2.5 (2002 USD), wanda aka biya ta hanyar dala miliyan 50 daga Bankin Duniya. Saboda rashin amfanin gona da ke da alaƙa da guguwar a wasu yankuna, Shirin Abinci na Duniya ya ba da tan 18,000 na abinci ga mazauna 394,250, farawa a watan Nuwamba 2002 bisa buƙatar gwamnatin Madagascar. Bayan guguwar, gwamnatin Norway ta ba da gudummawar kr1.2 miliyan (2002 Norwegian krone, US $ 172,000) don taimakon guguwa, kuma gwamnatin Switzerland ta ba da kusan $ 33,000 (USD). &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

## Dubi kuma

* Guguwa mai zafi a cikin 2002
* Yanayi na 2002
* Guguwar Gafilo - guguwa mai tsanani da ta mamaye arewa maso gabashin Madagascar a shekara ta 2004

## Manazarta