Robert Lucas Jr.

**Robert Emerson Lucas Jr.** (15 ga Satumba, 1937 - 15 ga Mayu, 2023) masanin tattalin arziki ne na Amurka a Jami'ar Chicago . An dauke shi a matsayin babban mutum a ci gaban sabon tsarin gargajiya ga tattalin arziki,  ya sami lambar yabo ta Nobel a Kimiyya ta Tattalin Arziki a shekarar 1995 "don ya bunkasa kuma ya yi amfani da ra'ayi na tsammanin tunani, kuma ta haka ne ya canza nazarin tattalin arziki kuma ya zurfafa fahimtarmu game da manufofin tattalin arziki".   N. Gregory Mankiw ya bayyana shi a matsayin "mafi tasiri masanin tattalin arziki na kwata na karshe na karni na 20".  A cikin 2020, ya kasance a matsayin masanin tattalin arziki na 10 da aka fi ambatonsa a duniya.

## Rayuwa ta farko da ilimi
An haifi Lucas a ranar 15 ga Satumba, 1937, a Yakima, Washington, a matsayin ɗan fari na Robert Emerson Lucas da Jane Templeton Lucas . [1] Iyayensa suna gudanar da kantin ice cream a Yakima. Bayan kasuwancin ya gaza a lokacin Babban Mawuyacin hali, iyalin suka koma Seattle. Mahaifiyarsa ta yi aiki a matsayin mai tsara kayan ado kuma mahaifinsa ya yi aiki a filin jirgin ruwa kuma daga baya ya yi aiki ne a matsayin mai walda tare da kamfanin firiji.

Lucas ya sami BA a tarihi a 1959 daga Jami'ar Chicago . Lucas ya halarci Jami'ar California, Berkeley, a matsayin dalibi na farko, amma ya bar Berkeley saboda dalilai na kudi kuma ya koma Chicago a 1960, inda ya sami PhD a tattalin arziki a 1964.  Rubutun nasa, Substitution Between Labor and Capital in U.S. Manufacturing: 1929-1958, an rubuta shi ne a karkashin kulawar H. Gregg Lewis da Dale Jorgenson .  Lucas ya yi karatun tattalin arziki don Ph.D. a kan tushen "kusan-Marxist". Ya yi imanin cewa tattalin arziki shine ainihin direba na tarihi, don haka ya yi niyyar nutsewa cikin tattalin arziki sannan ya koma sashen tarihi.

## Ayyuka
Bayan kammala karatunsa, Lucas ya koyar a Makarantar Gudanar da Masana'antu (yanzu Makarantar Kasuwanci ta Tepper) a Jami'ar Carnegie Mellon har zuwa 1975, lokacin da ya koma Jami'ar Chicago.

An zabi Lucas a Kwalejin Fasaha da Kimiyya ta Amurka a shekarar 1980,  Guggenheim Fellowship da Kwalejin Kimiyya ta Kasa a shekarar 1981,  da kuma American Philosophical Society a shekarar 1997.  An tattara takardunsa a Rubenstein Library a Jami'ar Duke.

An ba Lucas lambar yabo ta Nobel a fannin kimiyyar tattalin arziki a shekarar 1995. Magana ta lura cewa kyautar ta kasance "don ci gaba da amfani da ra'ayi na tsammanin tunani, kuma ta haka ne ya canza nazarin tattalin arziki kuma ya zurfafa fahimtarmu game da manufofin tattalin arziki".

## Gudummawar bincike

### Binciken da ya dace
Lucas sananne ne ga bincikensa game da tasirin tsammanin tunani a cikin ka'idar tattalin arziki. John Muth ya buga "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements"  a cikin 1961 a wannan bangaren a Carnegie Tech. Lucas (1972) ya haɗa ra'ayin tsammanin tunani a cikin tsarin tattalin arziki mai ƙarfi. Wakilan a cikin samfurin Lucas suna da ma'ana: bisa ga bayanan da ke akwai, suna samar da tsammanin game da farashin gaba da yawa, kuma bisa ga waɗannan tsammanin suna aiki don haɓaka amfanin rayuwarsu da ake tsammani. Ya kuma ba da tushe mai kyau ga ra'ayin Milton Friedman da Edmund Phelps game da tsaka-tsaki na dogon lokaci na kudi, kuma ya ba da bayani game da alaƙar da aka lura a lokacin tsakanin fitarwa da hauhawar farashi, wanda aka nuna ta hanyar Phillips, yayin da yake nuna cewa kasancewar wannan dangantakar ba ta samar da yiwuwar cinikin manufofi ba.

### Luka mai sukar
A shekara ta 1976, Lucas ya kalubalanci tushe na ka'idar tattalin arziki (wanda a baya ya mamaye tsarin Tattalin arzikin Keynesian),  yana jayayya cewa ya kamata a gina tsarin tattalin arziki a matsayin tarin tsarin tsarin tattalin arziki yayin da yake lura da cewa haɗuwa a cikin ma'anar ka'idar bazai yiwu ba a cikin samfurin da aka ba. Ya tsara "Lucas critique" na aiwatar da manufofin tattalin arziki,  wanda ke riƙe da cewa dangantakar da ke bayyana a cikin tattalin arziki, kamar alaƙar da ke tsakanin hauhawar farashi da rashin aikin yi, na iya canzawa don mayar da martani ga canje-canje a cikin manufofin tattalin arziƙi. Sake fasalin ya rinjayi ci gaban sabon tattalin arzikin gargajiya da kuma fitarwa zuwa ga tushe na tattalin arzikin microeconomic don ka'idar tattalin arzikin macroeconomic.

### Sauran gudummawa
Lucas ya kirkiro ka'idar samarwa wanda ya nuna cewa mutane na iya yaudarar su ta hanyar manufofin kudi marasa tsari; Tsarin Uzawa-Lucas (tare da Hirofumi Uzawa) na tara dukiyar ɗan adam; da kuma "Lucas paradox", wanda ke la'akari da dalilin da ya sa ƙarin jari ba ya gudana daga ƙasashe masu tasowa zuwa ƙasashe masu ci gaba. Lucas (1988) gudummawa ce mai mahimmanci a ci gaban tattalin arziki da wallafe-wallafen ci gaba. Lucas da Paul Romer sun sanar da haihuwar ka'idar ci gaban endogenous da sake farfado da bincike kan ci gaban tattalin arziki a ƙarshen 1980s da 1990s.

Lucas ya kuma ba da gudummawa ga gudummawar tushe ga tattalin arzikin halayyar, kuma ya ba da tushe na ilimi don fahimtar karkatarwa daga dokar farashi daya bisa ga rashin hankali na masu saka hannun jari.

## Rayuwa ta mutum
Lucas ya auri wata daliba daga Jami'ar Chicago, Rita Cohen . Ma'auratan suna da 'ya'ya maza biyu, Stephen (an haife shi a shekara ta 1960) da Joseph (an haifi shi a shekara de 1966). 

Lucas da Cohen sun sake aure a cikin shekarun 1980. Yarjejeniyar kisan aure tana da sashi wanda ya ba Cohen damar samun rabin kyautar Nobel idan za a ba da kyautar kafin ranar 31 ga Oktoba, 1995, wanda ya zama lamarin.

Bayan ya saki Cohen, Lucas ya auri Nancy Stokey .  Ma'auratan sun hada kai a kan takardu kan Ka'idar ci gaba, kudaden jama'a, da ka'idar kudi.