Canjin yanayi da rushewar wayewa

**[[Canjin yanayi]] da rushewar [[wayewa]]** suna nufin haɗarin da ake tsammani cewa mummunan tasirin canjin yanayi na iya rage rikitarwa na zamantakewar al'umma da tattalin arziki na Duniya har zuwa inda wayewar ɗan adam mai rikitarwa ta ƙare a duniya, tare da ɗan adam ya ragu zuwa ƙasa mai ci gaba. Wannan haɗarin da ake tsammani yawanci yana da alaƙa da ra'ayin raguwar yawan jama'a wanda ya haifar da tasirin kai tsaye da kai tsaye na canjin yanayi, da kuma raguwar ƙarfin ɗaukar duniya. A Ƙarshen, wani lokacin ana ba da shawarar cewa rushewar wayewa da canjin yanayi ya haifar ba da daɗewa ba za a bi ta da halakawar ɗan adam.

Wasu masu bincike sun haɗa misalai na tarihi na rushewar al'umma tare da canje-canje marasa kyau a cikin yanayin yanayi na gida da / ko na duniya. Musamman, taron kilo-shekara 4.2, babban taron da ya faru a Afirka da Asiya tsakanin shekaru 5,000 da 4,000 da suka gabata, an haɗa shi da rushewar Tsohon Masarautar Masar, Daular Akkadian a Mesopotamiya, Al'adun Liangzhu a yankin Kogin Yangtze da Ci gaban Indus Valley. A Turai, Babban Rikicin Karni na Sha bakwai, wanda aka bayyana ta abubuwan da suka faru kamar gazawar amfanin gona da Yaƙin Shekaru talatin, ya faru ne a lokacin Little Ice Age. A cikin shekara ta 2011, an ba da shawarar haɗin kai tsakanin bambancin yanayi da rikice-rikicen zamantakewa na dogon lokaci a lokacin kafin masana'antu. fari na iya zama abin da ya ba da gudummawa ga rushewar Maya na gargajiya tsakanin ƙarni na 7 da 9.  Koyaya, duk waɗannan abubuwan sun iyakance ga al'ummomin ɗan adam: rushewar dukan wayewar ɗan adam ba za a taɓa gani ba a tarihi.

Wasu ƙarin matsananciyar faɗakarwa na rugujewar wayewa da sauyin yanayi ke haifarwa, kamar iƙirarin cewa wayewa zai iya ƙarewa nan da shekara ta 2050, sun jawo kakkausar suka daga masana kimiyya.[1][2] Rahoton kimantawa na shida na IPCC na 2022 ya yi hasashen cewa yawan ɗan adam zai kasance tsakanin mutane biliyan 8.5 da biliyan 11 nan da shekara ta 2050. Nan da shekara ta 2100, kiyasin yawan jama'a ya kai biliyan 11, yayin da matsakaicin hasashen yawan jama'a ya kusan kusan mutane biliyan 16. Hasashen mafi ƙasƙanci na 2100 yana kusan biliyan 7, kuma wannan raguwa daga matakan yanzu ana danganta shi da “ci gaba cikin sauri da saka hannun jari a ilimi”, tare da hasashen da ke da alaƙa da wasu manyan matakan ci gaban tattalin arziki.[3] Koyaya, ƴan tsirarun masana kimiyyar yanayi sun yi iƙirarin cewa mafi girman matakan ɗumamar yanayi-tsakanin 3 °C (5.4 °F) zuwa 5 °C (9.0 °F) akan yanayin zafin masana'antu—na iya yin saɓawa da wayewa, ko kuma rayuwar mutane biliyan da yawa ba za ta iya ci gaba da wanzuwa a irin wannan duniyar ba. A cikin 2022, sun yi kira da a kira abin da ake kira "ƙarshen wasan yanayi" game da yuwuwar waɗannan haɗarin, wanda ya jawo hankalin kafofin watsa labarai masu mahimmanci da wasu takaddama na kimiyya.[8][9][10]

Wasu daga cikin manyan rubuce-rubucen da aka yi kan sauyin yanayi da rugujewar wayewa, wadanda ba masana kimiyya ba ne suka rubuta su. Sanannen misalan sun haɗa da "Ƙasar da ba za a iya rayuwa ba"[1] na David Wallace-Wells da "Idan muka daina yin riya fa?" ta Jonathan Franzen, [2] waɗanda aka soki su saboda rashin daidaiton kimiyya.[3][4] Zaɓen ra'ayi ya ba da shaida cewa matasa a duk faɗin duniya suna fuskantar bala'in tashin hankali na yanayi, [5] tare da kalmar collapsology da aka ƙirƙira a cikin 2015 don bayyana ra'ayin duniya mara kyau wanda ke tsammanin rugujewar wayewa saboda damuwa yanayi.[6]

## Misalan tarihi da aka bayar

## Tattaunawar zamani

### Shekaru na 2000
Tun a farkon shekara ta 2004, wani littafi mai taken Ecocriticism ya binciki alaƙar da ke tsakanin apocalypticism kamar yadda aka bayyana a cikin mahallin addini, da fassarorin apocalypth na duniya game da yanayin yanayi da al'amuran muhalli. Ya yi jayayya cewa mummunan (wanda aka riga aka tsara, tare da halin kirki a bayyane) ko mai ban dariya (wanda aka mayar da hankali kan kuskuren ɗan adam kamar yadda ya saba da rashin tabbas) an ga tsarin apocalyptic a cikin ayyukan da suka gabata game da muhalli, kamar Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962), Paul and Anne Ehrlich's The Population Bomb (1972), da Al Gore's Earth in the Balance (1992). 

In the mid-2000s, James Lovelock gave predictions to the British newspapers *The Independent* and *[[The Guardian]]*, where he suggested that much of Europe will have turned to desert and "billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable" by the end of the 21st century.  In 2008, he was quoted in *The Guardian* as saying that 80% of humans will perish by 2100, and that the climate change responsible for that will last 100,000 years. By 2012, he admitted that climate change had proceeded slower than he expected.

### Shekaru na 2010 zuwa yanzu
In late 2010s, several articles have attracted attention for their predictions of apocalyptic impacts caused by climate change. Firstly, there was "The Uninhabitable Earth", a July 2017 *New York* magazine article by David Wallace-Wells, which had become the most-read story in the history of the magazine, and was later adapted into a book. Another was "What if we stopped pretending?", an article written for *The New Yorker* by Jonathan Franzen in September 2019. Both articles were heavily criticized by the fact-checking organization Climate Feedback for the numerous inaccuracies about tipping points in the climate system and other aspects of climate change research.

Sauran misalai na wannan nau'in sun haɗa da "Mene ne da ya zo bayan zuwan yanayi?", wani labarin shekara ta 2022 ga mujallar TIME ta Parag Khanna, wanda ya tabbatar da cewa daruruwan miliyoyin mutane suna mutuwa a cikin shekaru masu zuwa kuma yawan mutanen duniya da ke tsaye a biliyan 6 a shekara ta 2050 ya kasance mafi munin yanayi. Bugu da ƙari, wasu rahotanni, irin su "aikin 2050" daga Cibiyar Nazarin Yanayi ta Australiya - Cibiyar Kula da Yanayi ta Kasa  da kuma takardar Deep Adaptation da Jem Bendell ya buga da kansa  sun jawo hankalin kafofin watsa labarai da yawa ta hanyar yin zargin cewa sakamakon canjin yanayi an raina shi ta hanyar tsarin kimiyya na al'ada. Wadannan rahotanni ba su wuce ta hanyar tsarin bita ba, kuma kimantawar kimiyya na waɗannan ayyukan ya same su da ƙarancin amintacce.

Musamman, rubuce-rubucen da David Wallace-Wells ya biyo baya sun koma baya daga ikirarin da ya yi a kowane nau'i na The Uninhabitable Earth . A cikin 2022, ya rubuta wani labarin fasalin ga The New York Times, wanda ake kira "Beyond Catastrophe: A New Climate Reality Is Coming Into View". A shekara mai zuwa, Kyle Paoletta ya yi jayayya a cikin Harper's Magazine cewa canjin sautin da David Wallace-Wells ya yi ya nuna babban yanayin da kafofin watsa labarai ke ɗaukar canjin yanayi.

A watan Oktoba na shekara ta 2024, masana kimiyya 44 na yanayi sun wallafa wata wasika ga Majalisar Ministocin Arewa,  suna da'awar cewa bisa ga binciken kimiyya a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata, an yi la'akari da haɗarin rushewar yaduwar juyawa ta Atlantic, cewa zai iya faruwa a cikin 'ya'yan shekarun da ke zuwa, kuma wasu canje-canje sun riga sun faru.  Canjin yanayi na iya raunana AMOC ta hanyar karuwa a cikin yanayin zafi na teku da kuma hauhawar ruwa mai laushi daga narkewar kankara. rushewar AMOC zai zama mummunan bala'in yanayi, wanda zai haifar da sanyaya Arewacin Hemisphere. Zai sami mummunar tasiri da ba za a iya juyawa ba musamman ga ƙasashen Nordic, amma kuma ga wasu sassan duniya. Wasu ba su yarda ba.

## Yarjejeniyar kimiyya da jayayya
Rahoton Bincike na shida na IPCC ya tsara cewa yawan mutane zai kasance tsakanin mutane biliyan 8.5 zuwa biliyan 11 (matsakaici matsakaici - mutane biliyan 9.75) nan da shekara ta 2050; matsakaicin yawan jama'a na shekara ta 2100 yana da mutane biliyan 11, yayin da matsakaicin girman yawan jama'ar ya kusa da mutane biliya 16. Mafi ƙarancin tsinkaye don 2100 yana kusa da biliyan 7, kuma wannan raguwa daga matakan yanzu an danganta shi da "ci gaba da sauri da saka hannun jari a ilimi", tare da waɗancan tsinkaye da ke da alaƙa da wasu matakan mafi girma na Ci gaban tattalin arziki. A watan Nuwamba na 2021, Yanayi ya bincika marubutan ɓangaren farko na rahoton kimantawa na IPCC: daga cikin masu amsa 92, kashi 88% sun yarda cewa duniya tana fuskantar "rikice-rikice na yanayi", duk da haka lokacin da aka tambaye su idan suna fuskantar "damuwa, baƙin ciki ko wasu damuwa saboda damuwa game da canjin yanayi?" kawai kashi 40% sun amsa "Ee, ba sau da yawa ba", tare da ƙarin kashi 21% suna amsa "A'a, akai-akai", kuma sauran kashi 39% suna amsa "a'a". Hakazalika, lokacin da aka buga wata takarda mai faɗakarwa game da "ƙalubalen guje wa makomar ban tsoro" a cikin Frontiers in Conservation Science, marubutan sun lura cewa "ko da manyan bala'o'i sun faru a wannan lokacin, ba za su iya shafar yanayin yawan jama'a ba har zuwa cikin karni na 22", kuma "babu wata hanya - ta hanyar da ta dace ko kuma ba (ban da ƙaruwar ƙarancin mutuwar ɗan adam ba) - don kauce wa ƙaruwar yawan mutane da ke biyowa".

A watan Mayu na 2019, *[[The Guardian]]* ta yi hira da masana kimiyya da yawa game da duniya inda  ° C (7.2 ° F) na dumama a kan preindustrial ya faru a shekara ta 2100: daya daga cikinsu shine Johan Rockström, wanda aka ruwaito ya ce "Yana da wahala a ga yadda za mu iya saukar da mutane biliyan ko ma rabin hakan" a cikin irin wannan yanayin. A lokaci guda, mai fafutukar Extinction Rebellion Roger Hallam ya yi irin wannan ikirarin, wanda ya ce a cikin wata hira ta 2019 cewa canjin yanayi na iya "kisan mutane biliyan 6 da 2100" - wani magana wanda mai gabatar da labarai na BBC Andrew Neil ya yi tambaya ba da daɗewa ba kuma ya soki shi a matsayin wanda ba shi da tushe ta hanyar Climate Feedback. A watan Nuwamba na shekara ta 2019, an gyara labarin The Guardian, yana yarda cewa Rockström ya yi kuskure kuma ainihin maganganunsa sun kasance "Yana da wahala a ga yadda za mu iya karɓar mutane biliyan takwas ko watakila ma rabin hakan".

A cikin 2022, Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta wallafa wani rahoto mai suna Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction " (GAR2022) yana cewa rushewar al'umma saboda tsallaka iyakokin duniya yana yiwuwa. Rahoton Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ya yi kira ga manufofin rigakafi ciki har da haɗa iyakokin duniya a cikin Manufofin SDG. An yi zargin, wani babban mai ba da shawara ga Ofishin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya don Rage Hadarin Bala'i kuma mai ba da gudummawa ga Rahoton Bincike na Duniya wanda ya yi magana da Byline Times a kan yanayin rashin sunansa ya ce, cewa an tantance rahoton sosai kafin a buga shi, don haka "GAR2022 kwarangwal ne na abin da aka haɗa a cikin rubuce-rubucen da suka gabata". Koyaya, binciken da ya ambaci wannan yiwuwar kuma an haɗa shi a cikin GAR2022 wani binciken labari ne ba tare da ainihin ma'auni ko ma'aunin lokaci ba.

### Yanayin yanayi na ƙarshe
A watan Agustan 2022, Schellnhuber, Rockström da wasu masu bincike da yawa, da yawa daga cikinsu suna da alaƙa da Cibiyar Nazarin Hadarin Rayuwa a fari'ar Cambridge, sun buga wata takarda a cikin PNAS wanda ya yi jayayya cewa rashin abin da suka kira "haɗin haɗari na bala'i" yana nufin cewa haɗarin rushewar al'umma, ko ma halakawar ɗan adam ta hanyar canjin yanayi da tasirin da ke da alaƙa kamar yunwa, matsanancin yanayi, yanayi, ya haifar da yunwa, "ya", Takardar ta ba da shawarar cewa ya kamata a yi amfani da waɗannan kalmomi a cikin bincike na gaba.

 
The paper was very high-profile, receiving extensive media coverage and over 180,000 page views by 2023. It was also the subject of several response papers from other scientists, all of which were also published at PNAS. Most have welcomed its proposals while disagreeing on some of the details of the suggested agenda. However, a response paper authored by Roger Pielke Jr. and fellow University of Colorado Boulder researchers Matthew Burgess and Justin Ritchie was far more critical. They have argued that one of the paper's main arguments—the supposed lack of research into higher levels of global warming—was baseless, as on the contrary, the scenarios of highest global warming called RCP 8.5 and SSP5-8.5 have accounted for around half of all mentions in the "impacts" section of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, and SSP3-7, the scenario of slightly lower warming used in some of the paper's graphics, had also assumed greater emissions and more extensive coal use than what had been projected by the International Energy Agency. They have also argued that just as the past projections of overpopulation were used to justify one-child policy in China, a disproportionate focus on apocalyptic scenarios may be used to justify despotism and fascist policies. In response, the authors of the original paper wrote that in their view, catastrophic risks may occur even at lower levels of warming due to risks involving human responses and societal fragility. They also suggested that instead of the one-child policy, a better metaphor for responses to extreme risks research would be the 1980s exploration of the impacts of nuclear winter, which had spurred nuclear disarmament efforts.

### Lokaci
Bill McGuire (farfesa a fannin Geophysical da Climate Hazards kuma marubucin Hothouse Earth: An Inhabitant's Guide) ya ba da shawarar cewa rushewar na iya faruwa a shekara ta 2050. 

Wani binciken da aka buga a cikin *Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology* a cikin shekara ta 2020, ya ba da shawarar cewa "kasuwanci na yanzu-kamar yadda al'ada na wayewar duniya ke kan hanyar zuwa ga raguwar tattalin arziki a cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa - kuma a mafi muni, na iya haifar da rushewar al'umma a kusa da 2040".

## Ra'ayin jama'a
Wasu binciken jama'a sun nuna cewa imani game da rUS wayewa ko ma halakawar ɗan adam sun zama gama gari tsakanin jama'a a ƙasashe da yawa. A cikin 2021, wani littafi a cikin The *Lancet* ya bincika mutane 10,000 masu shekaru 16-25 a cikin ƙasashe goma (Australia, Brazil, Finland, Faransa, Indiya, Najeriya, Philippines, Portugal, Burtaniya, da Amurka): ɗaya daga cikin binciken da ya samu shine kashi 55% na masu amsawa da suka yarda da sanarwa " bil'adama ya lalace".

A cikin 2020, wani bincike da wani tanki na Faransa Jean Jaurès Foundation ya gano cewa a cikin kasashe biyar masu tasowa (Faransa, Jamus, Italiya, Burtaniya da Amurka), wani bangare mai yawa na yawan jama'a sun amince da sanarwa cewa "civilization kamar yadda muka sani zai rushe a cikin shekaru masu zuwa"; kashi sun kasance daga 39% a Jamus da 52% ko 56% a Amurka da Burtaniya zuwa 65% a Faransa da 71% a Italiya.

## Dubi kuma

* Abin da ya faru na anoxic
* *Duniya 2100*
* Rashin Mutum #Kimanin haɗari
* Rushewar Zamanin Bronze
* Rugujewar Maya ta gargajiya
* Lokacin ƙaura

## Bayanan da aka ambata

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