Ƙaruwar yawan jama'a

Girman yawan jama'a shine karuwar yawan mutane a cikin yawan jama'ar ko rukuni da aka warwatsa. Yawan jama'ar duniya ya karu daga biliyan 1 a cikin 1800 zuwa biliyan 8.2 a cikin 2025. Gaskiyar **Ƙaruwar yawan jama'a**'a a duniya ya kai kusan miliyan 70 a kowace shekara, ko 0.85% a kowace shekara. Ya zuwa 2024, Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta tsara cewa Yawan jama'a na duniya zai kai kololuwa a tsakiyar shekarun 1980 a kusan biliyan 10.3. Kimanin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ya ragu sosai a cikin 'yan shekarun nan saboda raguwar yawan haihuwa a duniya. Sauran sun kalubalanci yawancin tsinkayen jama'a na baya-bayan nan kamar yadda suka rage yawan jama'a.

Yawan mutane na duniya yana ƙaruwa tun ƙarshen Black Death, a kusa da shekara ta 1350. Haɗin ci gaban fasaha wanda ya inganta yawan aikin gona  da tsabtace muhalli da ci gaban kiwon lafiya wanda ya rage yawan mace-mace ya kara yawan jama'a. A wasu yankuna, wannan ya ragu ta hanyar tsarin da ake kira canjin al'umma, inda kasashe da yawa da ke da matsayi mai girma na rayuwa suka ga raguwar yawan jama'a. Wannan ya bambanta kai tsaye da yanayin da ba a ci gaba ba, inda ci gaban yawan jama'a har yanzu ke faruwa. A duniya, yawan yawan jama'a ya ragu daga kashi 2.2% a kowace shekara a 1963.

Haɓaka yawan jama'a tare da ƙara yawan amfani da su shine ke haifar da matsalolin muhalli, kamar asarar rayayyun halittu da sauyin yanayi,] saboda yawan amfani da albarkatun ƙasa don ci gaban ɗan adam.  Don haka, ana magana akan rage yawan jama'a a matsayin dabarun dorewa, kodayake yuwuwar sa yana iyakance don ba da damar zaɓin rayuwar mutum ɗaya.  Manufofin kasa da kasa da suka mayar da hankali kan rage tasirin karuwar yawan bil'adama sun ta'allaka ne a cikin manufofin ci gaba mai dorewa da ke neman inganta yanayin rayuwa a duniya tare da rage tasirin al'umma a kan muhalli tare da ciyar da jin dadin bil'adama.  

## Tarihi

Yawan jama'ar duniya yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa tun ƙarshen Black Death, a kusa da shekara ta 1350.  Yawan jama'a ya fara girma da sauri a Yammacin duniya a lokacin juyin juya halin masana'antu. Mafi yawan karuwar yawan jama'ar duniya ya kasance tun daga shekarun 1950, galibi saboda Ci gaban kiwon lafiya  da karuwar yawan aikin gona. 

### Tsarin Haber
 
Saboda tasirin da yake da shi a kan ikon ɗan adam na shuka abinci, Tsarin Haber, wanda ake kira bayan ɗaya daga cikin masu kirkirarsa, masanin kimiyyar Jamus Fritz Haber, ya yi aiki a matsayin "mai fashewar Fashewar yawan jama'a", yana ba da damar yawan jama'ar duniya ya karu daga biliyan 1.6 a cikin 1900 zuwa biliyan 7.7 a watan Nuwamba 2019. 

Wasu daga cikin dalilan "Modern Rise of Population"  masanin kimiyyar kiwon lafiya na Burtaniya Thomas McKeown (1912-1988) ne ya bincika su. A cikin wallafe-wallafensa, McKeown ya kalubalanci ra'ayoyi huɗu game da karuwar yawan jama'a:

# McKeown ya bayyana cewa ci gaban yawan mutanen Yamma, musamman karuwa a karni na 19, ba ta haifar da karuwar haihuwa ba, amma galibi ta hanyar raguwar mace-mace musamman na Mutuwa yara sannan Mutuwar jarirai,  
# Raguwar mace-mace za a iya danganta shi da hauhawar yanayin rayuwa, inda McKeown ya fi mai da hankali kan ingantaccen yanayin abinci mai gina jiki.
# McKeown ya yi tambaya game da tasirin matakan kiwon lafiya na jama'a, gami da sake fasalin tsabta, allurar rigakafi da keɓewa, 
# "Taskar McKeown" ta bayyana cewa matakan maganin warkarwa ba su taka muhimmiyar rawa ba a raguwar mace-mace, ba kawai kafin tsakiyar karni na 20 ba har ma har zuwa karni na 20.

Kodayake an yi jayayya sosai game da rubutun McKeown, binciken da aka yi kwanan nan ya tabbatar da darajar ra'ayoyinsa. Ayyukansa suna da mahimmanci ga tunanin yau game da karuwar yawan jama'a, hana haihuwa, lafiyar jama'a da kula da lafiya. McKeown yana da babban tasiri ga masu binciken jama'a da yawa, kamar masana tattalin arziki na kiwon lafiya da masu lashe kyautar Nobel Robert W. Fogel (1993) da Angus Deaton (2015). Wannan na ƙarshe ya ɗauki McKeown a matsayin "wanda ya kafa maganin zamantakewa".

## Misalai na girma
"Yayin karuwar yawan jama'a" shine yawan da yawan mutane a cikin yawan jama'ar ke ƙaruwa a cikin wani lokaci, wanda aka bayyana a matsayin ɓangare na yawan jama'an farko. Musamman, yawan karuwar yawan jama'a yana nufin canjin yawan jama'ar a cikin lokaci guda, sau da yawa ana nuna shi azaman kashi na yawan mutane a cikin yawan jama'ada a farkon wannan lokacin. Ana iya rubuta wannan a matsayin tsari, mai inganci don isasshen ɗan gajeren lokaci:

: Population\ growth\ rate = \frac{ P(t_2)  -  P(t_1)} {P(t_1)(t_2-t_1)}

Kyakkyawan ci gaba yana nuna cewa yawan jama'a yana ƙaruwa, yayin da ƙarancin ci gaba yana nufin cewa yawan jamaʼa yana raguwa. Rashin ci gaba na sifili yana nuna cewa akwai adadin mutane iri ɗaya a farkon da ƙarshen lokacin - yawan ci gaba na iya zama sifili koda kuwa akwai manyan canje-canje a cikin yawan haihuwa, yawan mutuwar, yawan shige da fice, da rarraba shekaru tsakanin sau biyu.

Wani ma'auni mai alaƙa shine Yawan haifuwa. Idan babu ƙaura, yawan haihuwar fiye da 1 yana nuna cewa yawan mata yana ƙaruwa, yayin da yawan haihuwar ƙasa da ɗaya (matsayin maye gurbin) yana nuna cewa yawancin mata yana raguwa.

Yawancin jama'a ba sa girma sosai, maimakon haka suna bin Tsarin dabaru. Da zarar yawan jama'a sun kai ga ƙarfin ɗaukar su, zai daidaita kuma ƙuƙwalwar ƙuƙwalwa za ta daidaita zuwa ƙarfin ɗaukar su.  A cikin yawan mutane na duniya, ana iya cewa ci gaban yana bin layi a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata.

### Daidaitaccen ma'auni
Ana iya tsara ci gaban yawan jama'a ta hanyar daidaitattun ma'auni 

: \frac{dP}{dt}=rP\left(1-\frac{P}{K}\right),

inda 

A = 

K - 

P 

0 

P 

0 

{\displaystyle A={\frac {K-P_{0}}{P_{2}}}} 

da kuma 

P 

0 

{\displaystyle P_{0}} 

shine yawan jama'a na farko a lokacin 0.

* P (t)      {\displaystyle P (t) }    = yawan jama'a bayan lokaci t;
* t     {\displaystyle t}    = lokacin da yawan jama'a ke girma;
* r     {\displaystyle r}    = ƙimar haɓaka dangi;
* K     {\displaystyle K}    = ikon ɗaukar yawan jama'a; wanda masana kimiyyar muhalli suka bayyana a matsayin matsakaicin yawan jama'ar da wani yanayi zai iya kiyayewa.

Kamar yadda yake da daidaitattun bambance-bambance, ana iya warware yawan jama'a a bayyane, samar da aikin dabara:

: 

## Yawan yawan jama'a a duniya

Yawan karuwar jama'a a duniya ya kai kololuwa a 1963 a 2.2% a kowace shekara kuma daga baya ya ragu. A cikin 2017, ƙididdigar ci gaban shekara-shekara ya kasance 1.1% .  CIA World Factbook yana ba da yawan haihuwa na shekara-shekara a duniya, yawan mace-mace, da kuma ci gaba a matsayin 1.86%, 0.78%, da 1.08% bi da bi. Shekaru 100 da suka gabata sun ga karuwar yawan jama'a sau hudu, saboda Ci gaban kiwon lafiya, raguwar mace-mace, da karuwar yawan aikin gona da Green Revolution ya yiwu.&nbsp;

Karin shekara-shekara a cikin yawan mutane masu rai ya kai miliyan 88.0 a shekarar 1989, sannan a hankali ya ragu zuwa miliyan 73.9 a shekara ta 2003, bayan haka ya sake tashi zuwa miliyan 75.2 a shekara ta 2006. A cikin 2017, yawan mutane ya karu da miliyan 83. Gabaɗaya, ƙasashe masu tasowa sun ga raguwar yawan ci gaban su a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, kodayake yawan ci gaban shekara-shekara ya kasance sama da 2% a wasu ƙasashe na Gabas ta Tsakiya da Afirka ta Kudu, da kuma a Kudancin Asiya, Kudu maso gabashin Asiya, da Latin Amurka.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

A wasu ƙasashe Yawan jama'a yana raguwa, musamman a Gabashin Turai, galibi saboda ƙarancin haihuwa, yawan mace-mace da ƙaura. A Kudancin Afirka, ci gaba yana raguwa saboda yawan mutuwar da ke da alaƙa da cutar kanjamau. Wasu ƙasashen Yammacin Turai na iya fuskantar raguwar yawan jama'a. Yawan jama'ar Japan ya fara raguwa a shekara ta 2005.

Sashen Jama'a na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ya tsara yawan jama'a na duniya don isa biliyan 11.2 a ƙarshen karni na 21. Cibiyar Kula da Lafiya da Bincike ta tsara cewa yawan jama'ar duniya zai kai kololuwa a cikin 2064 a biliyan 9.73 kuma ya ragu zuwa biliyan 8.89 a cikin 2100.  Binciken da aka yi a shekarar 2014 a *Kimiyya* ya kammala cewa yawan mutanen duniya zai kai biliyan 11 nan da shekara ta 2100, tare da damar ci gaba da ci gaba da bunkasa cikin karni na 22.  Gidauniyar Jamusanci don Jama'ar Duniya ta ruwaito a watan Disamba na 2019 cewa yawan mutanen duniya yana ƙaruwa da mutane 2.6 a kowane dakika, kuma zai iya kaiwa biliyan 8 nan da shekara ta 2023.  &nbsp;

## Girma ta ƙasa

Dangane da kididdigar yawan jama'a na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, yawan jama'ar duniya ya karu da kashi 30%, ko mutane biliyan 1.6, tsakanin 1990 da 2010.  A cikin yawan mutane karuwar ta kasance mafi girma a Indiya (miliyan 350) da China (miliyan 196). Yawan karuwar jama'a ya kasance daga cikin mafi girma a Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa (315%) da Qatar (271%). &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Yawancin ƙasashe na duniya, gami da yawa a Afirka ta Kudu, Gabas ta Tsakiya, Kudancin Asiya da Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya, sun ga karuwar yawan jama'a tun ƙarshen Yaƙin Cold. Tsoron shi ne cewa yawan jama'a suna ƙara matsa lamba ga albarkatun kasa, kayan abinci, kayan man fetur, aiki, gidaje, da dai sauransu a wasu ƙasashe marasa arziki. Misali, yawan mutanen Chadi ya karu daga 6,279,921 a 1993 zuwa 10,329,208 a 2009,  ya kara matsawa albarkatun sa. Vietnam, Mexico, Najeriya, Masar, Habasha, da DRC suna ganin irin wannan karuwar yawan jama'a.

; Bayani
: * Eritrea ta bar Habasha a shekarar 1991.
:  An raba shi cikin al'ummomin Sudan da Sudan ta Kudu a cikin shekara ta 2011.
:  Japan da Tsibirin Ryukyu sun haɗu a shekarar 1972.
: Indiya da Sikkim sun haɗu a 1975.

## Yawan jama'a na gaba

## Dubi kuma

* Tarihin yawan jama'a
* Canjin yawan jama'a
* Dogaro da yawan jama'a
* Rashin kula da muhalli
* Canjin yaduwar cututtuka
* Shirye-shiryen yawan jama'a
* Ci gaban da ba a sani ba
* Overshot (yawan jama'a) 
* Tsufa na yawan jama'a
* Rage yawan jama'a
* Yawan jama'a
* Yawan jama'a na duniya
* Kimanin yawan mutanen duniya na tarihi
* Zero yawan jama'a