Title: Asymmetric cycles
Description: "I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment costs.  Rapid adjustments may cause productivity slowdowns.  These slowdowns last longer when retooling is costly.  The model explains why growth-rate disasters are more likely than miracles, and why volatility of growth relates negatively to growth over time.  I estimate the model, and the estimates have surprising implications.  Firms seem to abandon technologies long before they are perfected current-practice TFP is 17 percent below best-practice"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Subjects: Business cycles, Industrial productivity, Mathematical models, Technological innovations