Title: Fertility Transition in Sri Lanka
Subtitle: The Determinants and Consequences
Description: The transition from relatively high fertility to low levels has occurred in Sri Lanka over a short period of four decades which is unique in the South Asian context.The fertility transition has brought about changes in the population age structure. The proportionate share and the absolute number of children under five years of age and the school age population 5-14 years, would decline in the future. the decline of children under 5 years of age in the future would place less pressure on maternal and child health (MCH) services.This would enable to improve MCH services. Likewise, the decline in the absolute number of school going children would enable 'capital deepening' in the educational sector to improve the quality of services. Another 'window of opportunity' is the large absolute size of young people 5.4 million in 2005, the largest number in sri Lanka's demographic history. This 'demographic bonus' need to be wisely utilized for economic development. It presents an unprecedented opportunity to accelerate economic growth and reduce poverty. Therefore, it is necessary to provide this large cohort of young people the necessary skills which are required for rapid economic development. it would be necessary to expand secondary and tertiary education facilities and vocational training opportunities according to the requirements of economic growth. for instance, the economically advanced countries in the region such as Japan and South Korea have already reaped the benefits of the demographic bonus by building appropriate human capital in young people. In Japan the demographic window opened in 1955 and closed in 1995. In Sri Lanka, it opened in 2005 and would close in 2030. The current age structure is neither broad at the base nor wide at the apex and therefore ideally suited for rapid economic expansion. The dependency ratio is at the lowest level(45.6%) but will not remain so in the future.By 2040, it would increase to 55.8 per cent. Thus there is a lead time of about two decades for the country to put in place the right policies for rapid economic development.

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