Title: Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings
Description: "This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable.  About 60% of variability in returns to schooling is forecastable.  This has important implications for using measured variability to price risk and predict college attendance"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Subjects: College attendance, Econometric models, Effect of education on, Income, Labor economics, Mathematical models, Uncertainty, Wages