Title: Sudan
Description: Sudan's long-term stability depends on whether the country's North and South can reach and fully implement equitable agreements on the terms of their separation in July 2011. North Sudan faces a highly volatile period during the next decade. The ruling National Congress Party will face growing calls for political change, an economic slump, and the possibility of armed challenges from within. There is the added risk of contagion from the uprisings seen elsewhere in North Africa. The regime will most likely use violence to confront these challenges. The prospect of civil war cannot be ruled out. South Sudan faces the enormous challenge of the need to establish a functioning state with few resources in the face of serious security challenges. Its stability will depend on establishing its legitimacy as a state, which will mean being able to provide services to its citizens and keeping them safe. The next decade is likely to see slow progress checked by frequent reversals.
Subjects: Political stability, Forecasting, Politics and government, Economic conditions, Relations, Internal security
Places: Sudan, South Sudan
Time periods: 2011-