Title: The 3D-BSW model applied to climatology of small areas and lines
Description: This is a continuing effort to improve stochastic modeling to simulate weather conditions and events, specifically cloud cover spread over space and time. The Sawtooth Wave simulation model has been applied with encouraging results. In a previous report the model was limited to two dimensions, and to the two-dimensional Boehm Sawtooth Wave (2D-BSW) model. A second report introduced the 3D-BSW model, to the extent that it can be used to simulate synoptic events, such as cloud cover. There has remained the task of developing and describing the three-dimensional model to yield the probabilities of events in one-, two-, and three-dimensional space, and also to link spatial events to time changes and their probabilities. As in the previous reports, the determination of such probabilities was accomplished by applying Monte Carlo methods of approximation to the frequency of events. This report includes the concomitant fields of correlation, both spatial and temporal. The probability of fractional cover, in an area or on a line, and the probability of line intervals that are free of specified exceedances, are among the estimates. Algorithms have been compiled to fit the results of the Monte Carlo exercises.
Subjects: Cloud forecasting, Statistical methods, Probability forecasting (Meteorology), Monte Carlo method