Title: Monetary policy with model uncertainty
First published: 2005
Description: "We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables.  The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d.  model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regime-switching models; more complex structural uncertainty about very different models, for instance, backward- and forward-looking models; time-varying central-bank judgment about the state of model uncertainty; and so forth.  We provide an algorithm for finding the optimal policy as well as solutions for arbitrary policy functions.  This allows us to compute and plot consistent distribution forecasts---fan charts---of target variables and instruments.  Our methods hence extend certainty equivalence and "mean forecast targeting" to more general certainty non-equivalence and "distribution forecast targeting.""--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Subjects: Mathematical models, Monetary policy, Uncertainty, Economic forecasting
LC classification: HB1