Title: Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle
Description: "The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record.  This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S.  economy.  Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables.  We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined.  Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.
Subjects: Business cycles, Econometric models
Places: United States