Title: A Population Projection for Sri Lanka, 1981-2011
Description: The role of population projections in planning economic and social development is twofold. On the one hand, the size and the structure of population plays a major part in determining labour supply, an essential factor in the production of all goods and services, while on the other, it defines the number of consumers, the satisfaction of whose wants is the ultimate aim of production. The component method was used to project Sri Lanka's population from 1981 to 2011. 

It was assumed that during the projection period the life expectancy at birth would gradually increase from an estimated level of  64.9 and 68.8 years for males and females to 68.6 years for males and 72.5 years for females in the year 2011. The total fertility rate was assumed to gradually reach replacement level of 2.1 in the year 2011 from the level of 3.4 in 1981. As regards international migration, it was assumed that the annual number of net out migrants would decline from an average of 40,000 during 1981-86 to about 20,000 during 2006-11.

The results of the projections show  that the total population would increase from 14.98 million in 1981 to 21.45 million in 2011 with males increasing from 7.64 million to 10.75 million and the females from 7.35 million to 10.70 million during the same period. District projections show the Colombo district would increase from 1.71 million in 1981 to 1.92 million in 1991 and the next largest district, Gampha would increase from 1.40 million to 1.64 million, Kandy district from 1.14 million to 1.15 million and Kurunegala district from 1.22 million to 1.43 million during the same period.