The end of theory
Subtitle: financial crises, the failure of economics, and the sweep of human interaction
By: Richard Bookstaber
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Published: 2017
Language: eng
Number of pages: 226
ISBN-13: 9780691169019
Subjects: Human behavior; Forecasting; Economics; Financial crises; Business failures
Description: " An in-depth look at how to account for the human complexities at the heart of today's financial system Our economy may have recovered from the Great Recession--but not our economics. In The End of Theory, Richard Bookstaber, one of the world's leading risk managers, discusses why the human condition and the radical uncertainty of our world renders the standard economic model--and the theory behind it--useless for dealing with financial crises. What model should replace it? None. At least not any version we've been using for the past two hundred years. Instead, Bookstaber argues for a new approach called agent-based economics, one that takes as a starting point the fact that we are humans, not the optimizing automatons that standard economics assumes we are. Bookstaber's groundbreaking paradigm promises to do a far better job at preventing crises and managing those that break out. As he explains, our varied memories and imaginations color our economic behavior in unexpected hues. Agent-based modeling embraces these nuances by avoiding the mechanistic, unrealistic structure of our current economic approach. Bookstaber tackles issues such as radical uncertainty, when circumstances take place beyond our anticipation, and emergence, when innocent, everyday interactions combine to create sudden chaos. Starting with the realization that future crises cannot be predicted by the past, he proposes an approach that recognizes the human narrative while addressing market realities. Sweeping aside the historic failure of twentieth-century economics, The End of Theory offers a novel and innovative perspective, along with a more realistic and human framework, to help prevent today's financial system from blowing up again. "--
Notes: Includes bibliographical references (pages 211-219) and index.
Table of contents: title: Section I: introduction; title: Crises and sunspots; title: Being human; title: Section II: the four horsemen; title: Social interactions and computational irreducibility; title: The individual and the human wave: emergent phenomena; title: Context and ergodicity; title: Human experience and radical uncertainty; title: Heuristics: how to act like a human; title: Section III: paradigm past and future; title: Economics in crisis; title: Agent-based models; title: Agents in the complexity spectrum; title: Section IV: agent-based models for financial crises; title: The structure of the financial system: agents and the environment; title: Liquidity and crashes; title: The 2008 crisis with an agent-based view; title: Section V: the end of theory; title: Is it a number or a story? Model as narrative; title: Conclusion.