Wind power forecasting error frequency analyses for operational power system studies
Subtitle: preprint
By: A. Florita, B.-M. Hodge, and M. Milligan
Contributors: Hodge, Bri-Mathias, author; Milligan, Michael R., author; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.); Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants (11th : 2012 : Lisbon, Portugal)
Series: NREL/CP -- 5500-56086; Conference paper (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.)) -- 5500-56086
Publisher: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Published: 2012
Place of publication: Golden, Colo.]
Language: eng
Subjects: Wind forecasting; Congresses; Winds; Speed; Mathematical models; Error analysis (Mathematics)
Description: The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.
Notes: Title from PDF title screen (viewed Nov. 6, 2012).

"August 2012."

"To be presented at the 11th Annual International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference, Lisbon, Portugal, November 13-15, 2012."

Includes bibliographical references (page 7).

Conference paper.

Sponsored by National Renewable Energy Laboratory contract no. DE-AC36-08GO28308