The food crises
Subtitle: a quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion
By: Marco Lagi ... [et al.].
Contributors: New England Complex Systems Institute
Publisher: New England Complex Systems Institute
Published: 2011
Place of publication: Cambridge, Mass
Language: eng
Format: [electronic resource] :
Number of pages: 56
Subjects: Food prices; Agriculture; Mathematical models; Food supply; Ethanol as fuel
Description: "Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, while an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion.".
Notes: "September 23, 2011."

Viewed on Sept. 30, 2011.