Prediction markets in theory and practice
By: by Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz
Contributors: Zitzewitz, Eric
Series: Discussion paper -- no. 1991; Discussion paper (Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit : Online) -- no. 1991
Publisher: IZA
Published: 2006
Place of publication: Bonn, Germany
Language: eng
Format: [electronic resource] /
Subjects: Futures
Description: "Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets", "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research"--Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 3/2/2006.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

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Mode of access: World Wide Web.