The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime
Subtitle: long run evidence 1875-1997
By: Michael D. Bordo, Joseph G Haubrich.
Contributors: Haubrich, Joseph Gerard, 1958-; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series ;; working paper 10431; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;; working paper no. 10431.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2004
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Securities -- Prices -- United States -- History.; Monetary policy -- United States -- History.; United States -- Economic conditions.
Description: "This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth.  The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997.  This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes.  In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.