Fault lines in China's economic terrain
By: Charles Wolf ... [et al.]
Contributors: Wolf, Charles, 1924-
Series: MR (Rand Corporation) -- MR-1686
Publisher: RAND
Published: 2003
Place of publication: Santa Monica, CA
Language: eng
Number of pages: 207
Subjects: Public health -- China; China -- Economic conditions -- 2000-; China -- Social conditions -- 2000-
Description: What are the major challenges, fault lines, and potential adversities (these terms are used synonymously), that China's economic development will encounter over the next decade? How severely will China's overall economic performance be affected if these adversities occur separately or in clusters? This book addresses these key questions. China has confronted in the past two decades five of the eight fault lines that the authors consider (unemployment, corruption, water resources, HIV/AIDS, and financial fragility), and, nonetheless, it has sustained high rates of economic growth. Therefore, in assessing the potential effects of these fault lines on China's future economic performance, the authors focus on whether, why, and by how much their intensities may increase--that is, on changes, rather than on the prevailing levels of each fault line. For the other three fault lines examined, which have not previously occurred or recurred--oil price shocks, foreign-direct-investment shrinkage, and serious military conflicts--the authors consider the circumstances under which they might arise and their resulting economic effects. For each of the eight fault lines, the authors estimate a "bottom-line" in terms of expected effects on China's annual growth rate over the next decade, drawing on a variety of methods, models, and judgments to make these estimates. The authors suggest that the probability that none of these individual setbacks will occur is low, while the probability that all will occur is still lower. Because of interdependencies among the fault lines, it is highly likely that several separate adversities will cluster if any one of them occurs. For examples: an internal financial crisis would have serious negative effects on the relative attractiveness of foreign investment in China, contributing to shrinkage of foreign direct investment; epidemic disease would intensify water pollution problems and would discourage foreign investment.
Table of contents: title: Unemployment, poverty, social unrest xi; title: Economic effects of corruption xii; title: HIV-AIDS and epidemic disease xii; title: Water resources and pollution xii; title: Energy consumption and prices xiii; title: Fragility of the financial system and state-owned enterprises xiii; title: Possible shrinkage of foreign direct investment xiii; title: Conflictual adversities: Taiwan and other potential conflicts xiv; title: Acronyms xvii; title: Potential adversities  confronting China's continued economic growth 1; title: Part  I. China's institutional and structural fault lines; title: Massive unemployment and rural poverty; title: Economic effects of corruption; title: Part II. Sectoral fault lines; title: Epidemic disease: a wild card in China's  economic future?; title: China's health progress since the liberationó: a long march against infectious and parasitic disease; title: China's current health profile in international and geographic perspective; title: Prospects for epidemic disease in contemporary China : the risks of behavior-born communicable illnesses; title: Modeling possible trajectories for an HIV epidemic in China; title: Economic implications for China of HIV breakout; title: Water  resources and pollution; title: Estimating water supply and demand; title: Water resources and regional disparities; title: Demand estimation for agriculture, industry, and municipality; title: Identifying the impacts of flood, water shortage and pollution on the economy; title: Impacts on agriculture; title: Impacts on industry, municipal water supply, and public health; title: Alternatives to abate the problem, and the expected cost and benefits; title: Giant water diversion from South to North; title: Water saving technologies and flood control; title: A market-approach to demand and pollution management; title: Water treatment and recycling; title: Economic  and security implications; title: Impact of water problems on productivity, capital and labor; title: Security: food sufficiency and regional conflicts; title: Future scenarios and possible adversities; title: GDP effects of an energy price shock; title: Some basic data on the Chinese energy sector and Chinese GDP; title: Oil  price effects of a severe oil supply disruption; title: Effects on Chinese GDP; title: Oil market effects; title: Part II.  Financial fault lines; title: China's fragile financial system and the state-owned enterprises; title: An ineffectual central bank; title: A fragile commercial banking system; title: Unregulated financial institutions; title: Adverse scenarios:  financial  crises and slacken economic growth; title: Possible shrinkage of foreign capital inflows; title: Introduction: some relevant background; title: What will affect FDI in China in the 2002-2010 period?; title: The internal political and economic environment; title: External influences on FDI in China