Prosperity and Depression
Subtitle: a Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements
By: Gottfried Haberler
Edition: First edition.
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Published: 2017
Place of publication: London
Language: eng
Number of pages: 530
ISBN-13: 9781315127552
Subjects: Business cycles; Economics; Cycles économiques; Économie politique
Description: "First issued in 1937 and then revised in 1957, Prosperity and Depression focuses on the task of analyzing existing theories of the business cycle and deriving a synthetic account of the nature and possible causes of economic fluctuations. The application, as far as possible, of quantitative tests to the various causal hypotheses - influences the manner in which the problem of economic cycles is approached in Haberler's book. The first part on ""The Systematic Analysis of the Theories of the Business Cycle"" gathers various hypotheses of explanation, to test their logical consistency and their compatibility with one another and with accepted economic principles. It gives a well rounded picture of the possible explanations of economic fluctuations. The second part, ""Synthetic Exposition Relating to the Nature and Causes of Business Cycles"" argues that there are many points where no definitive solution can be proposed, but have a number of possibilities. The choice between these can then be made only on the basis of empirical investigations. Haberler argues that theoretical reasoning supported only by broad facts as one happens to know without special statistical or historical investigations can create intelligent questions, but it cannot definitely answer them. By analyzing various theories and explanations of the business cycle, this book clarifies a number of issues presupposed. The difference between the theories analyzed is not as complicated as is sometimes believed. In fact it is shown how theories which seem prima facie to contradict one another can be reconciled. David Felix's new introduction underlines the continuing importance of this classic."--Provided by publisher
Table of contents: title: Chapter 8 Analysis of Theories Part I; title: chapter 24 Analysis of Theories Part I; title: chapter Analysis of Theories Part I; title: chapter Chapages 5 Under-consumption Theories; title: chapter Chapages 5 Under-consumption Theories 141; title: chapter 144 99; title: chapter 194 Analysis of Theories Part I; title: chapter Chapages 8 'Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 199; title: chapter Chapages 8 Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 203; title: chapter Analysis of Themes; title: Part I; title: chapter Chapages 8 Recent Discussions on the Trade Cycle 223; title: chapter 248 Analy sis of Theories Part I; title: chapter Part II SYNTHETIC EXPOSITION RELATING TO THE NATURE AND CAUSES OF BUSINESS CYCLES; title: chapter 35 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II; title: chapter Chapages; title: chapter 396 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II; title: chapter The Up-tum : Revival 403; title: chapter 404 Nature and Causes of the Cycle Part II; title: chapter Nature and Causes of the Cycle; title: part Part III; title: A Critique of Certain Tendencies in Modem Economic Theory; title: chapter C.C rit iq u e : Te ndenc ies in M odern E co no m ic Th eo ry; title: chapter Chapages 13 Critique: Tendencies in Modern Economic Theory 457 employment, changes in output due to changes in employment. 1 (Output can, of course, change without changes in employment; title: harvest changes being the most important example. But the short run changes in aggregate output that constitute the business cycle are clearly not of that nature; title: which does not, however, exclude that crop changes as well as other exogenous disturbances may have great causal significance for the cycle). I follow Mitchell and Burns in defining the cycle as the shortest observable fluctuations in activity. In their words,? business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years and are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own?.2 Furthermore, I make no attempt at finding a regular sequence or pattern of? minor? and? major? cycles (as Hansen thinks there exists). Cycles do, of course, differ greatly in duration and enormously in amplitude; some depressions are mild, others severe; some upswings strong, others weak and abortive. 3 But the most careful investigations in have convinced; title: chapter historical environment and external disturbances is a complicated chemical compound and not a mechanical mixture whose conƯ stituent parts are separable by more or less mechanical statistical devices. The statistical decomposition of time series in cycles and trend is an insoluble problem. 1 But this does by no means exclude that it is often possible to explain particular cycles or phases (depressions or expansions) in terms of exogenous forces or endogenous processes or to point to strongly intensifying or mitigating factors which explain the mildness or severity of a particular depression, or weakness or strength of a particular upswing. Let me mention only one or two examples; title: more will follow later. The intensification of the boom following the outbreak of the war in Korea does not require any further explanaƯ tion than reference to the wave of Governmental and private spending engendered by the war. 2 The great depression of the io, s in the U.S., whatever its deeper causes, was undoubtedly tremendously intensified by the collapse of the banking system. It is disturbing that economists do not see eye to eye on all these matters. But we can take consolation in the fact that despite great divergences in the interpretation and explanation, different; title: chapter 468 Monetary Factors Affecting Economic Stability Part III; title: chapter Nam e In d ex t o Parts Iand II; title: 337339; title: chapter Sub je c t In d ex t o Parts Iand II; title: chapter 496 Sub je c t In d ex t o Parts Iand II.