Predicting cycles in economic activity
By: Jane Haltmaier.
Contributors: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
Series: International finance discussion papers -- no. 926; International finance discussion papers (Online) -- no. 926.
Publisher: Federal Reserve Board
Published: 2008
Place of publication: Washington, D.C
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Description: "Predicting cycles in economic activity is one of the more challenging but important aspects of economic forecasting.  This paper reports the results from estimation of binary probit models that predict the probability of an economy being in a recession using a variety of financial and real activity indicators.  The models are estimated for eight countries, both individually and using a panel regression.  Although the success of the models varies, they are all able to identify a significant number of recessionary periods correctly"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 4/28/2008.

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print.

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Mode of access: World Wide Web.