Extending the state-of-the-art for the COMAN/ATCAL methodology
By: by Ugur Ziya Yildirim
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1999
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 122
Description: This thesis reviews currently existing attrition methodologies and critically examines the (ATtrition CALibration) ATCAL approach for heterogeneous force mixes. Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients must be calibrated for use in ATCAL. When the aggregated combat results from a Lanchester-type attrition model agree with the results of a high-resolution simulation, for a particular mix of weapons on either side, the equation is said to be calibrated. Combat scenario runs are made in the high-resolution JANUS combat model. A maximum likelihood estimation approach (COMAN), which incorporates target priority and availability information, is used to estimate the Lanchester attrition rates in the ATCAL model. A continuous-time, three-state Markov chain model of target acquisition in JANUS is used to obtain the target availability parameters required in the COMAN approach. Bootstrap confidence intervals are developed for the attrition-rate estimates and the target availability parameters. The ability of the ATCAL methodology to replay JANUS results in an aggregated, heterogeneous-force replay model is investigated. These developments have the potential for allowing high-resolution simulation results to be extrapolated to a wider spectrum of conditions (e.g., force mixes) than currently possible by virtue of the more detailed nature of the aggregated-replay model involved.
Notes: Thesis advisor(s): James G. Taylor, William S. Murphy.

"March 1999"

Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research) Naval Postgraduate School, March 1999.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 89-91)

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

Also available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

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Turkish Army author.

dk/dk cc:9116 5/21/99.