Addressing uncertainty about future airport activity levels in airport decision making
By: Ian Kincaid ... [et al.].
Contributors: National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board; Airport Cooperative Research Program; United States. Federal Aviation Administration
Series: ACRP report -- 76; ACRP report -- 76.
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Published: 2012
Place of publication: Washington, D.C
Language: eng
Number of pages: 141
ISBN-13: 9780309258579
Subjects: Airports; Forecasting; Commercial Aeronautics; Planning; Air traffic; Systems analysis
Description: This report provides a guidebook on how to develop air traffic forecasts in the face of a broad range of uncertainties. It is targeted at airport operators, planners, designers, and other stakeholders involved in planning, managing, and financing of airports, and it provides a systems analysis methodology that augments standard master planning and strategic planning approaches. This methodology includes a set of tools for improving the understanding and application of risk and uncertainty in air traffic forecasts as well as for increasing overall effectiveness of airport planning and decision making. In developing the guidebook, the research team studied existing methods used in traditional master planning as well as methods that directly address risk and uncertainty, and based on that fundamental research, they created a straightforward and transparent systems analysis methodology for expanding and improving traditional planning practices, applicable through a wide range of airport sizes. The methods presented were tested through a series of case study applications that also helped to identify additional opportunities for future research and long-term enhancements.
Notes: At head of title: Airport Cooperative Research Program.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 111-113).

Also available online.

Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration ACRP project 03-22
Table of contents: title: Chapter 1. Introduction; title: Part I. Primer on Risk and Uncertainty in Future Airport Activity; title: Part II. A Framework and Methodology for Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making; title: Part III. Applying the Methodology Using Real Life Case Studies; title: Part IV. Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Research; title: Appendix A: References; title: Appendix B: Glossary; title: Appendix C: Acronyms Abbreviations and Airport Codes; title: Appendix D: Further Information on Approaches for Incorporating Uncertainty into Demand Forecasting; title: Appendix E: Flexible Approaches to Airport Planning and Real Options; title: Appendix F: Modeling Techniques to Assess Cumulative Risk Impacts.