The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime
Subtitle: long-run evidence, 1875-1997
By: By Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich.
Contributors: Haubrich, Joseph Gerard, 1958-
Series: Working paper ;; 04-02; Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland : Online) ;; 04-02.
Publisher: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Published: 2004
Place of publication: [Cleveland, Ohio]
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Stocks -- Prices.; Bonds -- Prices.; Economic forecasting.
Description: "This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth.  The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997.  This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across different monetary regimes.  In accord with our proposed theory, regimes with low credibility (high persistence of inflation) tend to have better predictability"--Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond web site.
Notes: Also available in print.
Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/14/2005.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.