Are increasing 5-year survival rates evidence of success against cancer?
Subtitle: a reexamination using data from the U.S. and Australia
By: Frank R. Lichtenberg
Contributors: National Bureau of Economic Research
Series: NBER working paper series -- working paper 16051; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 16051.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2010
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: [electronic resource]
Description: "The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health provides summaries of publications like this.  You can sign up to receive the NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health by email.  Previous investigators argued that increasing 5-year survival for cancer patients should not be taken as evidence of improved prevention, screening, or therapy, because they found little correlation between the change in 5-year survival for a specific tumor and the change in tumor-related mortality.  However, they did not control for the change in incidence, which influences mortality and is correlated with 5-year survival.  We reexamine the question of whether increasing 5-year survival rates constitute evidence of success against cancer, using data from both the U.S.  and Australia.  When incidence growth is controlled for, there is a highly significant correlation, in both countries, between the change in 5-year survival for a specific tumor and the change in tumor-related mortality.  The increase in the relative survival rate is estimated to have reduced the unconditional mortality rate by about 15% in the U.S.  between 1976 and 2002, and by about 15% in Australia between 1984 and 2001.While the change in the 5-year survival rate is not a perfect measure of progress against cancer, in part because it is potentially subject to lead-time bias, it does contain useful information; its critics may have been unduly harsh.  Part of the long-run increase in 5-year cancer survival rates is due to improved prevention, screening, or therapy"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 6/15/2010.

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