Does age structure forecast economic growth?
By: David E. Bloom ... [et al.]
Contributors: Bloom, David E. 1955-; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series -- no. 13221.; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 13221.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2007
Place of publication: Cambridge, Mass
Language: eng
Number of pages: 42
Subjects: Aging -- Economic aspects; Population -- Economic aspects; Economic development -- Econometric models; Economic forecasting
Description: Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a "demographic dividend" that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.
Notes: "July 2007"

Includes bibliographical references (p. 22-24).

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