Exits from recessions
Subtitle: the U.S. experience 1920-2007
By: Michael D. Bordo, John Landon-Lane.
Contributors: Landon-Lane, John S.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series -- working paper 15731; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 15731.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2010
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Description: "In this paper we provide some evidence on when central banks have shifted from expansionary to contractionary monetary policy after a recession has ended-the exit strategy.  We examine the relationship between the timing of changes in several instruments of monetary policy and the timing of changes of selected real macro aggregates and price level (inflation) variables across U.S.  business cycles from 1920-2007.  We find, based on historical narratives, descriptive evidence and econometric analysis, that in the 1920s and the 1950s the Fed would generally tighten when the price level turned up.  By contrast, since 1960 the Fed has generally tightened when unemployment peaked and this tightening often occurred after inflation began to rise.  The Fed is often too late to prevent inflation"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 3/16/2010.

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