Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey
Publisher: Ashgate
Published: 2002
Place of publication: Aldershot, UK, and Burlington, VT
Language: eng
Format: Hardcover
Number of pages: 184
ISBN-13: 9780754630654
Description: Based on its outward-oriented development strategy, respectable growth, increased integration into world trade and financial markets, and imperfect though vibrant and wide-based democracy, Turkey is often cited as a development model for other countries in the region and elsewhere. Countering this positive picture of the Turkish economy over the last two decades, however, is the incompleteness of its reform process: the boom-bust nature of its growth, persistently high inflation, delays in privatising state-owned enterprises, and high and persistent government budget deficits. In January 2000 Turkey embarked on an ambitious IMF-backed stabilization program designed to correct the weaknesses in its economy, and, in particular, to reduce inflation to single digits by the end of 2002. Since then, though, Turkey has experienced two financial crises and redesigned its stabilization program to bring inflation down more gradually. This collection analyzes the nature of Turkey's inflation and the likely costs and benefits of disinflation.

"This is a long overdue book on Turkey's unhappy experience with macroeconomic policy during the last two decades, which culminated in a devastating crash in 2001. To their credit, the authors refuse to resort to simple-minded explanations. Loose fiscal policy, inadequate structural reform, poor oversight of the financial system and ill-advised IMF policies all play a role in the story. But the main theme running through the authors' sophisticated analyses is the complexity of an economy caught between an immature political system and even more fickle financial markets." Dani Rodrik (Harvard University)

"Turkey over the last two decades provides a cautionary tale on the perils of inflationary and disinflationary policy. The authors have employed the tools of time series econometrics to explore the implications of Turkish macroeconomic and financial-sector experience, and have assembled an analysis of the Turkish dilemma that will be of great use to developing-country policy-makers everywhere." Patrick Conway (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) 

"This timely volume brings together expert views on the sources of decades long chronic inflation in Turkey and implications of the disinflation.  Its coverage provides lessons for other high inflation economies.  This unique volume is an excellent reference for academics and specialists." Ramazan Gençay (University of Windsor)
Table of contents: title: PART I. INTRODUCTION; title: 1  Introduction: Turkey's Disinflation Struggle; title: Aykut Kibritçioğlu, Libby Rittenberg and Faruk Selçuk             3; title: 2  Turkish Economy: 1980-2001; title: Ahmet Ertuğrul and Faruk Selçuk                                    13; title: PART II. SOURCES OF INFLATION IN TURKEY; title: 3  Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with; title: Special Reference to Theories of Inflation; title: Aykut Kibritçioğlu                                                 43; title: 4  Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability:; title: Evidence from Turkey, 1970-2000; title: O. Cevdet Akçay, C. Emre Alper and Süleyman Özmucur              77; title: 5  Long Memory in Turkish Inflation Rates; title: Haluk Erlat                                                        97; title: PART III. PERSPECTIVES ON DISINFLATION IN TURKEY; title: 6  Inflationary Expectations and the Costs of Disinflation:; title: A Case for Costless Disinflation in Turkey?; title: Selahattin Dibooğlu                                               125; title: 7  Turkish Inflation and Real Output Growth: 1963-2000; title: Tevfik F. Nas and Mark J. Perry                                   139; title: 8  Seigniorage, Currency Substitution and Inflation in Turkey; title: Faruk Selçuk                                                      155; title: 9  The Impact of a Disinflation Program on the Structure of the; title: Turkish Banking Sector: Evidence from 1988-99; title: C. Emre Alper, M. Hakan Berument and N. Kamuran Malatyalı        167