Crashes, crises, and calamities
Subtitle: how we can use science to read the early-warning signs
By: Len Fisher
Publisher: Basic Books
Published: 2011
Place of publication: New York
Language: eng
Number of pages: 233
ISBN-13: 9780465021024; 9780465023356
Subjects: Forecasting; Social aspects; Science; Natural disasters; Scientists; Accidents; Prevention; History
Description: Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references and index.
Table of contents: title: Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls?; title: The future eclipsed; title: Galileo's hell; title: Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all; title: Runaway disaster; title: The balance of nature and the nature of balance; title: Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons; title: Teetering on the brink of catastrophe; title: Models and supermodels; title: Beware of mathematicians; title: Weak signals as major early-warning signs; title: Summary : The future of forecasting.