A model of reenlistment behavior
Subtitle: estimates of the effects of Army's selective reenlistment bonus on retention by occupation
By: Paul F. Hogan ... [et al.].
Contributors: Hogan, Paul F.; U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences.
Series: Study report -- 2005-02.; Study report (U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences) -- 2005-02.
Publisher: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences
Published: 2005
Place of publication: Arlington, Va
Language: eng
Subjects: United States. -- Army -- Pay, allowances, etc.; United States. -- Army -- Recruiting, enlistment, etc.
Description: A logit model was applied to estimate the effect of selective reenlistment bonuses (SRBs) on the retention rates of Army Soldiers. The model was estimated separately by occupational group and by first (zone A), second (zone B) and third term (zone C) reenlistment decisions. An "annualized cost of leaving" (ACOL) variable was constructed to estimate the net financial returns to reenlisting in the Army compared to leaving for the civilian sector. The model was estimated using data on actual reenlistments from the period FYl99O tlirough FY2OOO. The effects of SRBs on reenlistments at Zones A, B, and C were estimated at three levels of occupational aggregation-all Army, CMF, and MOS. After out-of-sample testing, we re-specified and re-estimated the model. In general, the results for Zone A at all levels of occupational aggregation indicate that reenlistment bonuses have a positive and statistically significant effect on Zone A reenlistments. The magnitude of the effect varied by occupation, but a one-level increase in SRB at Zone A typically increases the reenlistment rate by three to seven percentage points, depending upon the occupation. The results for Zone B are also solid at both the CMF and MOS levels. Results for Zone C, where reenlistment rates are typically very high, were reasonably solid but not as good as the Zone A and B results. We were unable to obtain positive, statistically significant ACOL parameter estimates for a small number of occupation groups. Statistically significant effects for demographic control variables and labor market conditions were also obtained.
Notes: "June 2005."

"Army project number 665803D730."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 33).

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