The Co-movement of housing sales and housing prices
Subtitle: empirics and theory
By: [by] William C. Wheaton [and] Nai Jia Lee
Contributors: Lee, Nai Jia; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics
Series: Working paper series / Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics -- working paper 09-05; Working paper (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics) -- no. 09-05.
Publisher: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics
Published: 2009
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Number of pages: 30
Description: This paper examines the strong positive correlation that exists between the volume of housing sales and housing prices. We first examine gross housing flows in the US and divide sales into two categories: transactions that involve a change or choice of tenure, as opposed to owner-to-owner churn. The literature suggests that the latter generates a positive sales-to-price relationship, but we find that the former actually represents the majority of transactions. We develop a simple model of these inter-tenure flows which suggests they generate a negative price-to-sales relationship. This runs contrary to a different literature on liquidity constraints and loss aversion. Empirically, we assemble two data bases to test the model: a short panel of 33 MSA covering 1999-2008 and a long panel of 101 MSA spanning 1982-2006. Our results from both are strong and robust. Higher sales "Granger cause" higher prices, but higher prices "Granger cause" both lower sales and a growing inventory of units-for-sale. These relationships together provide a more complete picture of the housing market - suggesting the strong positive correlation in the data results from frequent shifts in the negative price-to-sales schedule. Keywords: Housing. JEL Classifications: R2.
Notes: "March 1, 2009."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 24-25).

Abstract in HTML and working paper for download in PDF available via World Wide Web at the Social Science Research Network.