Forecasting carrier air-wing operational availability with event step simulation
By: by Michael P. Patten
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1999
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 134
Description: This thesis develops an event step simulation that models the Operational Availability (Ao) of carrier aircraft based on the supply and maintenance of Weapon Replaceable Assemblies (WRAs). It verifies that WRA allowances, developed by the Aviation Readiness Requirements oriented to WRAs (ARROWs) model, achieve a target level of Ao given stated assumptions. It expands on ARROWs by characterizing not just the expected value of Ao but also its variability and probability distribution function. The simulation is expanded to include a variety of factors not considered by ARROWs. Examples of these factors include actual flight schedules, variable and prioritized requisitioning and repair, and cannibalization. The impact of these factors on the distribution of Ao is quantified. Simultaneous examination of all factors reveals that the full simulation predicts actual Ao approximately as well as ARROWs. In general, the full simulation overestimates Ao, and ARROWs underestimates Ao.
Notes: "September 1999".

Thesis advisor(s): David A. Schrady.

Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research) Naval Postgraduate School, September 1999.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 131-132).

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

Also Available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

System Requirements: Adobe Acrobat reader.

US Navy (USN) author.

dk/dk cc:9116 03/24/00