Optimal policy projections
By: Lars O. Svensson, Robert J. Tetlow.
Contributors: Tetlow, Robert J.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series ;; working paper 11392; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;; working paper no. 11392.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2005
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Monetary policy -- United States.; Economic forecasting -- United States.
Description: "We outline a method to provide advice on optimal monetary policy while taking policymakers' judgment into account.  The method constructs Optimal Policy Projections (OPPs) by extracting the judgment terms that allow a model, such as the Federal Reserve Board's FRB/US model, to reproduce a forecast, such as the Greenbook forecast.  Given an intertemporal loss function that represents monetary policy objectives, OPPs are the projections - of target variables, instruments, and other variables of interest -that minimize that loss function for given judgment terms.  The method is illustrated by revisiting the Greenbook forecasts of February 1997 and November 1999, in each case using the vintage of the FRB/US model that was in place at that time.  These two particular forecasts were chosen, in part, because they were at the beginning and the peak, respectively, of the late 1990s boom period.  As such, they differ markedly in their implied judgments of the state of the world, and our OPPs illustrate this difference.  For a conventional loss function, our OPPs provide significantly better performance than Taylor-rule simulations"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.