How hits happen
Subtitle: forecasting predictability in a chaotic marketplace
By: Winslow Farrell ; [foreword by W. Brian Arthur].
Edition: 1st ed.
Publisher: HarperBusiness
Published: 2000
Place of publication: New York
Language: eng
Number of pages: 252
Subjects: Consumer behavior -- Forecasting.; Sales forecasting.; Adaptive control systems.
Description: "How does a movie like Titanic captivate the public eye and break box office records everywhere? Why is Tickle Me Elmo on every kid's Christmas list one year - and replaced by Furbies the following year? Managers and marketing gurus have long struggled to predict why some new products are instant hits, and why others fail miserably. Now, in this study, Winslow Farrell applies the science of complexity theory to modern business problems.

He reveals how the actions of computer-generated "customers" that shop, go to movies, listen to music, and form cliques shed light on consumer behavior in the natural world. Motivated by the same factors as humans - product placement, popularity, advertising, or simple preferences - their purchases are a powerful indicator of what's a hit...or a flop.

As he reveals the findings of this incredible technology, Farrell offers valuable lessons to managers in any real-life industry, and a revolutionary, near-perfect business model for predicting the next big thing."--BOOK JACKET.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references (p. 233-239) and index.