Policy analysis with incredible certitude
By: Charles F. Manski
Contributors: National Bureau of Economic Research
Series: NBER working paper series -- working paper 16207; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 16207.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2010
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Description: "Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices.  Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions.  Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible.  This paper develops a typology of incredible analytical practices and gives illustrative cases.  I call these practices conventional certitudes, dueling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, and wishful extrapolation.  I contrast these practices with my vision for credible policy analysis"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 8/19/2010.

Includes bibliographical references.

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Mode of access: World Wide Web.