The UK labour force participation rate
Subtitle: business cycle and trend influences
By: by Mark Schweitzer and David Tinsley.
Contributors: Tinsley, David.; Bank of England.
Series: Working paper,; no. 228; Working paper (Bank of England : Online) ;; no.228.
Publisher: Bank of England
Published: 2004
Place of publication: London
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Labor supply -- Great Britain -- Econometric models.; Business cycles -- Great Britain -- Econometric models.
Description: "In this paper the extent to which recent patterns in UK labour force participation have been influenced by trend and business cycle factors is investigated. A modelling strategy is proposed that pools the available micro and aggregate-level data, to produce a mutually consistent model of the trend and cyclical components of participation. A significant procyclical pattern is established, but some distinct trend influences on the participation rate are also identified. The approach allows for the construction of forecasts, which would be a useful input into the sort of macroeconometric models used by policymakers. The model outperforms some conventional macroeconometric forecasts in out-of-sample forecast tests"--Bank of England web site.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.