The dynamics of Syria's civil war
By: Brian Michael Jenkins
Contributors: Rand Corporation
Publisher: RAND Corporation
Published: 2014
Place of publication: Santa Monica, California]
Language: eng
Number of pages: 23
Copyright date: 2014
Subjects: History; Politics and government; Forecasting; Political science
Description: As the ongoing conflict in Syria enters its third year, persistent uncertainty regarding the circumstances on the ground, potential outcomes, and long-term consequences continues to confound analysis and possible policy responses. This essay explores the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, including the characteristics and interests of the belligerents, the interests of foreign powers involved, and the implications that the present course of events has for the future of Syria and the wider region. It is concluded that the possibility of reaching a political settlement is becoming increasingly unlikely as the sectarian nature of the conflict intensifies and the unity of the rebel groups remains fractious, no end to the current stalemate is in sight. The conflict has become an existential struggle for all concerned, so not even the fall of Assad will bring an end to the violence. Also, the involvement of Islamic extremist groups and other hardliners poses a future international terrorist threat that could be directed against the West. By the end of 2014, more than half of the Syrian population could be living as refugees, which will exacerbate existing sectarian tensions in neighboring countries, another factor conducive to terrorism. We will be dealing with the effluent of Syria's civil war for decades.
Notes: "PE-115 (2014)"

"Perspective : expert insights on a timely policy issue."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 22-23).
Table of contents: title: Principal observations; title: The dynamics of Syria's civil war; title: What this essay is about; title: The belligerents; title: The opposition forces; title: The inescapable course of events; title: Potential game changers; title: The fighting will go on, creating instability lasting decades; title: The threat posed by foreign fighters; title: Some policy implications; title: Conclusion.