Hit or miss?
Subtitle: the effect of assassinations on institutions and war
By: Benjamin F. Jones, Benjamin A. Olken.
Contributors: Olken, Benjamin A.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series -- no. 13102.; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 13102.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2007
Place of publication: Cambridge, Mass
Language: eng
Number of pages: 42
Subjects: Heads of state -- Assassination attempts; Assassination -- Mathematical models
Description: Assassinations are a persistent feature of the political landscape. Using a new data set of assassination attempts on all world leaders from 1875 to 2004, we exploit inherent randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify assassination's effects. We find that, on average, successful assassinations of autocrats produce sustained moves toward democracy. We also find that assassinations affect the intensity of small-scale conflicts. The results document a contemporary source of institutional change, inform theories of conflict, and show that small sources of randomness can have a pronounced effect on history.
Notes: "May 2007"

Includes bibliographical references (p. 27-30).

Also available in PDF from the NBER world wide web site (www.nber.org).