Estimating errors in student enrollment forecasting
By: by K. T. Marshall and R. M. Oliver
Contributors: Oliver, R. M.; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School
Published: 1979
Place of publication: Monterey, California
Language: eng
Number of pages: 21
Subjects: College attendance; Mathematical models; Educational planning; Statistical methods
Description: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how longitudinal data can be used to determine variances, and hence confidence bounds, on student enrollment forecasts in addition to finding the forecasts themselves. The cases of known admission numbers and unknown admission numbers, but with an assumed Poisson distribution, are both considered. The model takes into account different admissions at fall and spring semesters, and also allows for differences in the continuation fractions for these different semesters. Normal approximations are used to calculate the probability that a total enrollment lies in a given interval. Numerical examples illustrate the results.
Notes: Title from cover.

"NPS55-79-01"--Cover.

"January 1979"--Cover.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 19)

"Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited"--Cover.

Technical report; 1979.