The Drunkard's Walk
Subtitle: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Edition: Hardcover edition
Publisher: Pantheon; Pantheon Books
Published: May 13, 2008
Language: eng
Format: Hardcover
Number of pages: 256
ISBN-13: 9780375424045
Subjects: Chaotic Behavior in Systems; Probability & Statistics - General; Mathematics / Probability; General; Life Sciences - General; Science; Chance; Probabilities; Random variables; Science/Mathematics
First sentence: A few years ago a man won the Spanish national lottery with a ticket that ended in the number 48.
Description: In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar. (From the Hardcover edition.)
Table of contents: title: Prologue
pagenum: ix; label: 1
title: Peering through the Eyepiece of Randomness
pagenum: 3; label: 2
title: The Laws of Truths and Half-Truths
pagenum: 31; label: 3
title: Finding Your Way through a Space of Possibilities
pagenum: 41; label: 4
title: Tracking the Pathways to Success
pagenum: 60; label: 5
title: The Dueling Laws of Large and Small Numbers
pagenum: 81; label: 6
title: False Positives and Positive Fallacies
pagenum: 104; label: 7
title: Measurement and the Law of Error
pagenum: 124; label: 8
title: The Order of Chaos
pagenum: 146; label: 9
title: Illusions of Patterns and Patterns of Illusion
pagenum: 169; label: 10
title: The Drunkard's Walk
pagenum: 192; title: Acknowledgements
pagenum: 221; title: Notes
pagenum: 223; title: Index
pagenum: 239