How do FOMC actions and U.S. macroeconomic data announcements move Brazilian sovereign yield spreads and stock prices?
By: Patrice Robitaille, Jennifer E. Roush
Series: International finance discussion papers -- no. 868; International finance discussion papers (Online) -- no. 868.
Publisher: Federal Reserve Board
Published: 2006
Place of publication: Washington, D.C
Language: eng
Format: [electronic resource] /
Description: "This paper provides a robust structural identification of the effects of U.S.  interest rates on an emerging economy's asset values.  Using newly available intraday data, we investigate how surprises associated with U.S.  macro data and FOMC announcements affectmove on intra-daily movements in the yield spread on a benchmark Brazilian government dollar-denominated bond and (the C-bond) as well as onthe Brazilian broad stock price index.  Our study covers the period February 1999 to April 2005.  We find that FOMC announcements that lead to an increase in U.S.  interest rates are associated with a systematic increase in Brazil's C-bond spread and a systematic decline in the Bovespa stock price index.  Several U.S.  macro data surprises, including for nonfarm payrolls and the CPI, prompt an increase in the Brazilian C-bond yield spread and a fall in Brazilian share prices.  These combined findings suggest that, for Brazil during this period, the financial risks of higher U.S.  interest rates rates in response to positive news about the U.S.  economy dominated any benefits through trade or other channels in the determination of Brazilian asset valuations"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 11/13/2006.

Includes bibliographical references.

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