Trend estimation for small areas
Subtitle: from a continuing survey with controlled sample overlap
By: Philip A. Bell and Anthony M. Carolan.
Contributors: Carolan, Anthony M.; Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Series: Working papers in econometrics and applied statistics -- no. 98/1; Working papers in econometrics and applied statistics (Australian Bureau of Statistics) -- no. 98.1
Publisher: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Published: 1998
Place of publication: [Canberra]
Language: eng
Number of pages: 19
Subjects: Labor supply -- Statistical methods.; Sampling (Statistics) -- Methodology.; Time-series analysis.
Description: The Australian Labour Force Survey has a rotating sample design that ensures overlap between successive samples.  This leads to autocorrelated survey errors that are typically large at region level. Decomposition of such a time series ignoring the autocorrelations of the survey data gives poor trend estimates characterised by many spurious turning points.  This paper presents time series models for the structure of the survey error.  These models are combined with a model for the decomposition of the population value into trend, seasonal and irregular components.  Simulations demonstrate that the resulting trend series have lower error and are subject to less revision than trend series produced ignoring the survey error, particularly when the survey error is large.
Notes: Catalogue no. 1351.0.

"March 1998".

Bibliography: p. 15.