Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle
By: Marcelle Chauvet and Simon Potter.
Contributors: Potter, Simon.; Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Series: Staff reports ;; no. 126; Staff reports (Federal Reserve Bank of New York : Online) ;; no. 126.
Publisher: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Published: 2001
Place of publication: [New York, N.Y.]
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Business cycles -- United States -- Econometric models.
Description: "The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record.  This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S.  economy.  Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables.  We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined.  Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
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Also available in print.
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Mode of access: World Wide Web.