A prison/parole system simulation model
By: by David W. Anderson and Edward A. Brill
Contributors: Brill, Edward A.; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School
Published: 1973
Place of publication: Monterey, California
Language: eng
Number of pages: 22
Subjects: Administration of Criminal justice; Parole; Mathematical models
Description: The continued high incidence of crime is recognized as being a serious national problem. Much controversy surrounds the estimated effects of policy changes within the Criminal Justice System. The paper presents a methodology for analyzing the effects of possible policy changes in a state's prison/parole system on future prison and parole populations. A simulation model is presented, viewing a prison/parole system as a feedback process for ciminal offenders. Transitions among the states in which an offender might be located, imprisoned, paroled, and discharged, are assumed to be in accordance with a discrete time semi-Markov process. Projected prison and parole populations for sample data and applications of the model are discussed. (Author)
Notes: Title from cover.

"March 1973"--Cover.

"NPS-55ZG73031A"--Cover.

DTIC Identifiers: Parole, criminal justice.

Author(s) key words: Prison, parole, simulation, semi-Markov, recidivism, forecasting.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 18).

"Approved for public release; distribution unlimited"--Cover.

Technical report; 1973.

kmc/kmc 9/14/09.