Air weapon systems in the Third World
Subtitle: a combat potential assessment technique
By: Christopher L. Christon
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Dept. of National aSecurity Affairs
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1986
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 206
Subjects: WEAPON SYSTEMS
Other titles: NPS-56-86-001.
Description: This report, prepared under the auspices of the Director of Central Intelligence's Exceptional      Analyst Program, proposes a quantitative technique for assessing the impact of air weapons      systems' transfers on the combat potential of Middle Eastern recipients. Existing quantitative      methodologies are examined to identify strengths and weaknesses. An analytical paradigm is      outlined, and essential measurement variables isolated. Data collection and estimation      techniques are explained. A data reduction scheme based on an amalgam of factor analysis      and multi-attribute utility techniques is described and tested. A linear aggregational technique      which combines the relative contributions of air weapons attributed in four mission roles (air      defense, fighter/air superiority, interdiction, close air support) is developed and applied to 125      operational and programmed aircraft. Current and projected combat aircraft inventories for      22 Middle Eastern/North African nations are established, and force propagation potential      (sortie production) is estimated for each aircraft. Sortie production and air weapon system      combat potential assessments are combined to generate national force air combat potential      estimates in four mission areas for the period 1984 through 1990. An example illustrating the      proposed methodology's flexibility in responding to differing alternatives and assumptions in      support of arms transfer policy making is offered.
Notes: Title from cover.

"NPS-56-86-001."

"June 1986."

AD A169 455.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 202-206)

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