The use and abuse of "real-time" data in economic forecasting
By: Evan F. Koenig, Sheila Dolmas and Jeremy Piger.
Contributors: Dolmas, Sheila.; Piger, Jeremy Max.
Series: Research Department working paper ;; 0004; Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Research Dept. : Online) ;; 0004.
Publisher: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Published: 2000
Place of publication: [Dallas, Tx.]
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Economic forecasting.
Description: "We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is superior to that obtained using conventional estimation and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus"--Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas web site.
Notes: Also available in print.
Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/27/2005.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.