Tests of a mesoscale model over Europe and the United States
By: Richard A. Anthes ; prepared for Naval Air Systems Command
Contributors: United States. Naval Air Systems Command; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School
Published: 1978
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif
Language: eng
Number of pages: 107
Subjects: Mathematical models; Cyclone forecasting
Description: A total of 32 twenty-four-hour forecasts using a six-layer, 60-km mesh model have been run over western Europe and the eastern United States. The forecasts showed considerable skill in forecasting cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean and the U.S. The average 24-hour S1 score for sea-level pressure was 39.1 compared to an average of 45.9 for the FNWC operational model and 73.4 for persistence. The major conclusion from this study is that significant improvements in 24-hour sea-level pressure forecasts were obtained by a model with high horizontal resolution, even though the vertical resolution was coarse and the physics in the model was simple. It appears likely, therefore, that further increases in forecast accuracy are possible by refining the vertical resolution and improving the physics.
Notes: "NPS 63-78004."

Title from cover.

"Prepared for: Naval Air Systems Command."

"August 1978."

Includes bibliographic references (p. 88-90).

"Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited."