Calculated Risks
Subtitle: How To Know When Numbers Deceive You
Publisher: Simon & Schuster
Published: June 5, 2002
Language: eng
Format: Hardcover
Number of pages: 310
ISBN-13: 9780743205566
Subjects: Mathematics; Popular science; Probabilities; Foundations Of Mathematics; Uncertainty; Science/Mathematics; Statistics; Probability & Statistics - General; Decision Making & Problem Solving; General; Education / Decision-Making & Problem Solving; Mathematical Statistics; Popular works
First sentence: During a routine medical visit at a Virginia hospital in the mid-1990s, Susan, a 26-year-old single mother, was screened for HIV.
Description: Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.