The excess burden of government indecision
By: Francisco J. Gomes, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Luis M. Viceira
Contributors: Kotlikoff, Laurence J.; Viceira, Luis M.; Harvard Business School. Division of Research
Series: Working paper / Division of Research, Harvard Business School -- 07-083; Working paper (Harvard Business School. Division of Research) -- 07-083
Publisher: Division of Research, Harvard Business School
Published: 2007
Place of publication: Boston
Language: eng
Number of pages: 38
Description: Governments are known for procrastinating when it comes to resolving painful policy problems. Whatever the political motives for waiting to decide, procrastination distorts economic decisions relative to what would arise with early policy resolution. In so doing, they engender excess burden. This paper posits, calibrates, and simulates a life cycle model with earnings, lifespan, investment return, and future policy uncertainty. It then measures the excess burden from delayed resolution of policy uncertainty. The first uncertain policy we consider concerns the level of future Social Security benefits. Specifically, we examine how an agent would respond to learning in advance whether she will experience a major Social Security benefit cut starting at age 65. We show that having to wait to learn materially affects consumption, saving, and portfolio decisions. It also reduces welfare. Indeed, we show that the excess burden of government indecision can, in this instance, range as large as 0.6 percent of the agent's economic resources. This is a significant distortion in of itself. It's also significant when compared to other distortions measured in the literature. The second uncertain policy we consider concerns marginal tax rates. We obtain similar results once we adjust for the impact of tax rates on income.
Notes: "This draft: January 12, 2007"--Added t.p.

Includes bibliographical references.