Shaping the next one hundred years
Subtitle: new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography
By: Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes.
Contributors: Popper, Steven W., 1953-; Bankes, Steven C.
Publisher: RAND
Published: 2003
Place of publication: Santa Monica, CA
Language: eng
Number of pages: 187
Subjects: System analysis.; Decision making.; Information technology.
Description: "The checkered history of predicting the future--e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty."
Notes: Also available in electronic form via the RAND Corporation Web site.
"MR-1626."