Development and evaluation of cross-impact analysis as a crisis decision-aid
By: by Ralph L. Schindler
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1979
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Subjects: Crisis management; Decision making
Description: This thesis reviews the decision-making dilemma caused by information uncertainty and ambiguity produced during crisis situations. Several cross- impact analysis techniques are reviewed and evaluate as possible crisis decision-aids. Cross-event analysis is selected and extended for demonstration in a hypothetical crisis situation involving South Asia. The selected techniques is operationalized and employed in a controlled environment to assess policy response options to the hypothetical crisis. The thesis then assesses the technique's conceptual limitations, and evaluates its utility as a potential crisis decision-aiding methodology. (Author)
Notes: Thesis advisor: R. Sherwin.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 1979.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 183-187)

Approved for public release.

Approved for public release, distribution unlimited.