DELPHI METHOD OF FORECASTING TO NURSING EDUCATION PLANNING IN WEST VIRGINIA: AN ASSESSMENT AND REPLICATION STUDY (VALIDATION, FUTURISTICS, SURVEY, CURRICULUM PLANNING).
Contributors: West Virginia University.
Published: 1986
Number of pages: 205
Subjects: Health Sciences, Nursing.; Health Sciences, Education.
Description: The purpose of this study was to assess the Delphi technique as a viable method for forecasting future events in nursing education in West Virginia by (1) determining the degree of accuracy of previously predicted events and identifying the circumstances that delayed and/or accelerated occurrence of the predicted events and (2) reapplying the Delphi method of forecasting to nursing education planning in West Virginia. This study was a modified replication of an investigation conducted by Dr. Floyd L. Stead in 1975.

The panel of experts for this study consisted of the thirty-three administrative heads of all nursing education programs in West Virginia. Data were collected by three rounds of questionnaires which validated the original predictions, substantiated events which had and/or had not yet occurred, and generated new events which the panel of experts believed would occur in newly developed and extended time frames and were not included in the original investigation.

The Delphi study was analyzed using the simple descriptive statistics of percentage of response, frequency of response, median response, and subjective analysis based on the experts ability to provide rational information to support or reject the occurrence or viability of an event.

It was concluded that the Delphi process was a valid instrument in nursing education planning in West Virginia. Round 1 Phase A and B and Round 2 Phase A established validity of the Delphi process. Round 2 Phase B generated thirty-six new events and predicted a time of occurrence for each. Consensus of opinion was achieved for all events in the short-range, intermediate-range, and long-range time frames. The information derived from this investigation was used to develop a scenario of probable future directions for the profession of nursing.

The major concerns of nursing education administrators in West Virginia were (1) impending changes in entry into professional practice and the subsequent impact on the educational system, (2) improvement of the educational system through curriculum development and academic uniformity, (3) adequate and accurate representation of the nursing profession at the State level, and (4) advancement of nursing as a science.
Notes: Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 47-06, Section: B, page: 2376.

Thesis (ED.D.)--WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY, 1986.

School code: 0256.