Simulation modeling using @Risk
Subtitle: updated for Version 4
By: Wayne L. Winston.
Publisher: Brooks/Cole Pub. Co.
Published: 2001
Place of publication: Pacific Grove, CA
Language: eng
Number of pages: 226
Subjects: At risk (Computer file); Business -- Computer simulation
Other titles: Simulation modeling using At Risk
Notes: Includes bibliographical references and index.
Table of contents: title: Machine generated contents note: Chapter 1: What Is Simulation? 1; title: 1.1 Actual Applications of Simulation 2; title: 1.2 What's Ahead? 4; title: 1.3 Simulation Models Versus Analytic Models 6; title: Chapter 2: Random Numbers-The Building Blocks of Simulation 9; title: Problems 11; title: Chapter 3: Using Spreadsheets to Perform Simulations 13; title: Example 3.1: The Newsvendor Problem 13; title: 3.1 Finding a Confidence Interval for Expected Profit 18; title: 3.2 How Many Trials Do We Need? 18; title: 3.3 Determination of the Optimal Order Quantity 19; title: 3.4 Using Excel Data Tables to Repeat a Simulation 24; title: 3.5 Performing the Newsvendor Simulation with the Excel; title: Random Number Generator 28; title: Problems 30; title: Chapter 4: An Introduction to @RISK 33; title: 4.1 Simulating the Newsvendor Example with @RISK 33; title: 4.2 Explanation of Statistical Results 40; title: 4.3 Conclusions 41; title: Chapter 5: Generating Normal Random Variables 43; title: 5.1 Simulating Normal Demand with @RISK 43; title: 5.2 Using the Graph Type Icons 45; title: 5.3 Placing Target Values in the Statistics Output 46; title: 5.4 Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution 46; title: Problems 47; title: Chapter 6: Applications of Simulation to Corporate Financial Planning 49; title: 6.1 Using the Triangular Distribution to Model Sales 57; title: 6.2 Sensitivity Analysis with Tornado Graphs 59; title: 6.3 Sensitivity Analysis with Scenarios 61; title: 6.4 Alternative Modeling Strategies 62; title: Problems 63; title: Chapter 7: Simulating a Cash Budget 69; title: Example 7.1: Cash Budgeting 69; title: Problems 75; title: Chapter 8: A Simulation Approach to Capacity Planning 83; title: Example 8.1: Wozac Capacity Example 83; title: Problems 89; title: Chapter 9: Simulation and Bidding 93; title: 9.1 Uniform Random Variables 93; title: 9.2 A Bidding Example 93; title: Problems 95; title: Chapter 10: Deming's Funnel Experiment 97; title: 10.1 Simulating Rule 1 (Don't Touch That Funnel!) 98; title: 10.2 Simulating Rule 2 100; title: 10.3 Comparison of Rules 1-4 102; title: 10.4 Lesson of the Funnel Experiment 102; title: 10.5 Mathematical Explanation of the Funnel Experiment 102; title: Problems 104; title: Chapter 11: The Taguchi Loss Function 105; title: 11.1 Using @RISK to Quantify Quality Loss 106; title: Problems 108; title: Chapter 12: The Use of Simulation in Project Management 111; title: Example 12.1: The Widgetco Example 111; title: 12.1 Estimating Probability Distribution of Project Completion Time 113; title: 12.2 Determining the Probability That an Activity Is Critical 117; title: 12.3 The Beta Distribution and Project Management 118; title: Problems 120; title: Chapter 13: Simulating Craps (and Other Games) 123; title: Example 13.1: Simulating Craps 123; title: 13.1 Confidence Interval for Winning at Craps 125; title: problems 126; title: Chapter 14: Using Simulation to Determine Optimal Maintenance Policies 129; title: Example 14.1 129; title: Problems 133; title: Chapter 15: Using the Weibull Distribution to Model Machine Life 135; title: Example 15.1: Simulating Equipment Replacement Decisions 136; title: Problems 139; title: Chapter 16: Simulating Stock Prices and Options 141; title: 16.1 Modeling the Price of a Stock 141; title: 16.2 Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of Stock Returns; title: from Historical Data 142; title: 16.3 What Is an Option? 144; title: 16.4 Pricing a Call Option 145; title: Example 16.1a: Pricing a European Call Option with @RISK 145; title: 16.5 Analyzing a Portfolio of Investments 148; title: Example 16.1b: Simulating Portfolio Return 149; title: Problems 153; title: Chapter 17: Pricing Path-Dependent and Exotic Options 157; title: Example 17.1: Pricing a Path-Dependent Option 158; title: Problems 160; title: Chapter 18: Using Immunization to Manage Interest Rate Risk 161; title: 18.1 Duration 164; title: 18.2 Convexity 165; title: 18.3 Immunization Against Interest Rate Risk 165; title: Example 18.1: Immunization Using Solver 165; title: 18.4 Better Models'for Interest Rate Risk 172; title: Problems 172; title: Chapter 19: Hedging with Futures 175; title: 19.1 Hedging with Futures: The Basics 175; title: 19.2 Modeling Futures Risk with @RISK 176; title: Problems 179; title: Chapter 20: Modeling Market Share 183; title: Example 20.1a: Market Share Simulation 183; title: 20.1 Is Advertising Worthwhile? 185; title: Example 20. b: Advertising Effectiveness 185; title: 20.2 To Coupon or Not to Coupon? 187; title: Example 20.1c: Should Coke Give Out Coupons? 187; title: Problems 189; title: Chapter 21: Generating Correlated Variables: Designing a New Product 193; title: Example 21.1 193; title: Problems 200; title: Chapter 22: Simulating Sampling Plans with the Hypergeometric; title: Distribution 205; title: Example 22.1: Simulating a Sampling Plan 206; title: Problems 207; title: Chapter 23: Simulating Inventory Models 209; title: Example 23.1: Simulating a Periodic Review Inventory System 210; title: Problems 214; title: Chapter 24: Simulating a Single-Server Queuing System 217; title: Example 24.1: Queuing Simulation in RISK 217; title: 24.1 Estimating the Operating Characteristics of a Queuing System 223; title: Problems 224; title: Index 225.