Fertility and the real exchange rate
By: Andrew K. Rose, Saktiandi Supaat.
Contributors: Supaat, Saktiandi.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series -- no. 13263.; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 13263.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2007
Place of publication: Cambridge, Mass
Language: eng
Number of pages: 31
Subjects: Fertility, Human -- Statistics; Foreign exchange rates -- Econometric models
Genres: Statistics.
Description: We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to have higher savings, lower investment, a current account surplus, and accordingly a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a host of potential determinants such as PPP deviations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point-estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately .15% in the real effective exchange rate.
Notes: "July 2007"

Includes bibliographical references (p. 25-26).

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