Projecting Pyongyang
Subtitle: the future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il regime
By: Andrew Scobell.
Contributors: Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute.
Series: Demystifying North Korea -- 7
Publisher: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
Published: 2008
Place of publication: Carlisle, PA
Language: eng
Number of pages: 43
ISBN-13: 9781584873488
Subjects: Political stability -- Korea (North) -- Forecasting; Regime change -- Korea (North) -- Forecasting; Korea (North) -- Politics and government -- Forecasting
Other titles: Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il regime
Description: The author seeks to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. He does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these. It is entirely possible that the fate of the country as a political, territorial, and juridical entity is intimately bound up with the fate of the Kim Jong Il regime, but one should not assume this to be so. In other words, the collapse of the Kim regime may not lead to the collapse of North Korea as a state. Moreover, one should not assume that even if the regime collapse is followed by state collapse that these events would inexorably lead to Korean unification.
Notes: "March 2008."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 37-43).

Electronic version also available on the SSI website.
Table of contents: title: Research focus and terms of reference; title: The future of what? State versus regime, failure versus collapse; title: Challenges; title: Degrees of dictatorship and criteria of collapse; title: A failing/eroding totalitarian regime; title: Future trajectories and scenarios; title: None of the above: toward a hybrid scenario; title: Conclusions and implications; title: Key indicators of regime change.