Israel and a nuclear Iran
Subtitle: implications for arms control, deterrence, and defense
By: Ephraim Kam, editor
Series: Memorandum -- 94; JCSS memorandum -- no. 94.
Publisher: Institute for National Security Studies
Published: 2008
Place of publication: Tel Aviv
Language: eng
Number of pages: 96
Subjects: Nuclear weapons; Nuclear nonproliferation; Deterrence (Strategy); Military policy; National security; International Security
Description: The monograph examined ways and prospects for stopping Iran from achieving a nuclear capability. Its principal focus, however, was the various implications of an Iran in possession of nuclear weapons and an analysis of ways to grapple with this potential situation. ... The following collection of papers comprises five essays. Ephraim Asculai summarizes the technical aspects to Iran's development of a nuclear weapons capability, and considers how Iran would act in the international arena in light of its non-proliferation commitments. Against the background of these commitments, the essay then analyzes the alternatives available to Iran regarding deployment of nuclear weapons.  In the essay that follows, Emily Landau looks at the implications of a nuclear empowered Iran with regard to arms control and non-proliferation efforts and initiatives in the nuclear realm. Beyond the ramifications for the non-proliferation regime, the essay considers the possibility of individual states acting to compensate for the weaknesses of the non-proliferation regime, and explores the implications for future non-proliferation efforts and the impetus for forging new arms control strategies toward stability in the Middle East. In the third essay, Yair Evron analyzes the reasons that are liable to generate instability in future nuclear relations between Iran and Israel, and the factors that can impact on the stability of the nuclear balance between Iran and Israel. The essay also considers the effects of Iran's nuclearization on Israel's nuclear posture.  The final two essays deal with elements of defense against a nuclear threat. Uzi Rubin evaluates the central role of missile defense in the deterrence of a nuclear empowered Iran. Assuming that Iran is a fanatical -- but also pragmatic -- country whose decisions are influenced substantively by considerations of profit and loss, the essay argues that a missile defense system can be more significant against a nuclear threat than against a conventional threat. In the final essay of this collection, David Klein reviews the question of building civilian bomb shelters against a nuclear attack based on the experience of other countries. He concludes that since these shelters do not constitute a practical option, it is not justified on a national level to invest in them, and it is preferable to focus on developing other solutions, especially boosting the deterrent ability.
Notes: "July 2008"

Includes bibliographical references.

Also available in print format.
Table of contents: title: 1.How Iran can attain its nuclear capability - and then use it  / Ephraim Asculai; title: 2.  Implications for arms control in the nuclear realm / Emily B. Landau; title: 3. An Israel-Iran balance : of nuclear deterrence : seeds of  instability / Yair Evron; title: 4. Missile defense and Israel's deterrence against a nuclear Iran / Uzi Rubin; title: 5. A nuclear defense policy for Israel, without shelters / David Klein.