Stalking the black swan
Subtitle: research and decision-making in a world of extreme volatility
By: Kenneth A. Posner.
Series: Columbia Business School Publishing
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Published: 2010
Place of publication: New York
Language: eng
Number of pages: 267
ISBN-13: 9780231150484; 9780231521673
Subjects: Investment analysis; Investments -- Forecasting; Business cycles; Recessions
Notes: Includes bibliographical references and index.
Table of contents: title: Forecasting in extreme environments; title: Thinking in probabilities; title: The balance between over- and under-confidence, and the special risk of complex modeling; title: Fighting information overload with strategy; title: Making decisions in real time: how to update a thesis for new information, without falling victim to cognitive dissonance; title: Mitigating information asymmetry; title: Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis; title: The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling; title: Judgment.