Dragon in the shadows
Subtitle: calculating China's advances in the South China Sea
By: Michael William Studeman
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1996
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 138
Description: The dispute between at least six riparian nations over jurisdictional rights to large tracts of the South China Sea continues to reign as one of the most likely flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific theater. The intentions of the chief protagonist in the conflict, China, will in large measure determine whether this dilemma will be resolved peacefully or violently. Relying on three case studies that focus on China's takeover of the Paracel Islands in 1974, its occupation of six reefs in 1988, and subsequent reef-hopping incidents in 1992 and 1995, this study highlights the conditions under which China expanded its presence in the South China Sea. Based on emerging trends, this thesis asserts that resource competition will most likely spark future violence in the South China Sea, and that domestic pressures within China commit Beijing to a course of hard-shell revanchism. At the same time, regional sensitivities to Chinese 'hegemony' and the correlation of military forces that weakly favor China suggest China will strive to avoid or contain a conflict over the near term. By profiling the character and turning of past Chinese 'aggression' in the South China Sea, this thesis also exposes the stratagems by which Chinese armed forces have pursued national objectives in the region.
Notes: "March 1996."

Thesis advisor(s): Solomon M. Karmel and Edward A. Olsen.

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs) Naval Postgraduate School, March 1996.

Bibliography: p. 131-135.

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

Also available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader 7.0.

US Navy (USN) author.

dk/dk cc:9996 10/18/96