Extreme weather events, mortality and migration
By: Olivier Deschenes, Enrico Moretti.
Contributors: Moretti, Enrico.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series -- no. 13227.; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 13227.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2007
Place of publication: Cambridge, Mass
Language: eng
Number of pages: 32
Subjects: Heat waves (Meteorology) -- Health aspects -- United States; Cold waves (Meteorology) -- Health aspects -- United States; Cold -- Physiological effect; Life expectancy -- United States -- Econometric models; Mortality -- United States -- Econometric models
Description: We estimate the effect of extreme weather on life expectancy in the US. Using high frequency mortality data, we find that both extreme heat and extreme cold result in immediate increases in mortality. However, the increase in mortality following extreme heat appears entirely driven by temporal displacement, while the increase in mortality following extreme cold is long lasting. The aggregate effect of cold on mortality is quantitatively large. We estimate that the number of annual deaths attributable to cold temperature is 27,940 or 1.3% of total deaths in the US. This effect is even larger in low income areas. Because the U.S. population has been moving from cold Northeastern states to the warmer Southwestern states, our findings have implications for understanding the causes of long-term increases in life expectancy. We calculate that every year, 5,400 deaths are delayed by changes in exposure to cold temperature induced by mobility. These longevity gains associated with long term trends in geographical mobility account for 8%-15% of the total gains in life expectancy experienced by the US population over the past 30 years. Thus mobility is an important but previously overlooked determinant of increased longevity in the United States. We also find that the probability of moving to a state that has fewer days of extreme cold is higher for the age groups that are predicted to benefit more in terms of lower mortality compared to the age groups that are predicted to benefit less.
Notes: "July 2007"

Includes bibliographical references (p. 28-29).

Also available in PDF from the NBER world wide web site (www.nber.org).