Global Change - the way from the present chaos to the future
Subtitle: Globální změna - Cesta ze světovího chaosu do budocnosti
Publisher: Aula Prague
Published: August 2010
Format: Paperback
Table of contents: title: Human society is reaching the limits of its capacity to organize its future in a reasonable manner, although it has achieved convincing economic results through outstanding expertise and technical ability, particularly in China, India, Brazil, etc., which were regarded as developing countries up until the second half of the 20th century. Many states are not concerned about a rational restriction of the demographic explosion and the rise in the living standards of the rich, which are having a negative effect on the results of the economic development and hence threatening future cohabitation. They are wasting energy, plundering the nonrenewable natural resources and spoiling the environment which future generations need for their life on Earth. The richest state in the world lives in debt, the gap between rich and poor nations and humans is growing wider. The exploitation of raw materials is regulated by economic requirements, but these are to a large extent irresponsible. The priority given to profit and also corruption contributes to the fact that resources are being used in an uncontrolled manner, without consideration for the needs of other nations and future generations. The most important nonrenewable resources and many deposits are almost exhausted. Man’s consciousness of the social and climatological situation does not guarantee the improvement in his collective behavior which will be necessary in order to counteract this apocalyptic threat.; title: The earth’s energy balance and climate system consists of the thermo-, strata- and troposphere as well as the hydro-, kayo-, pedal- and lithosphere and is linked to the astronomical cycles. The fluctuations in solar activity are not striking, being characterized by the solar constant. The accepted thermal energy, reduced by reflection, is transformed into mechanical energy and influences the flow of air as well as the circulation of the oceans and biological processes. The sea functions like a thermohaline exchanger: Its currents, particularly those of the El Nino, have an impact on the movement of air masses, which are in turn affected by the earth’s rotation, friction forces and also the changes in air pressure and temperature. In the course of the earth’s development the chemical composition of the atmosphere as well as the climate have been changed by continental drift, volcanoes and the development of the biosphere. The greenhouse effect, which holds back a certain spectrum of thermal radiation, maintains an average temperature on earth which, together with the hydrological cycle, permits the existence of the biosphere. Economic activities since the industrial revolution have reached such a stage that they are having a global impact on these natural processes.; title: Up until the mid-20th century average annual temperatures varied between +13.5o and +14oC. Since then they have risen by around +0.7oC as a consequence of natural fluctuations and the activities of mankind, which are among others increasing the greenhouse effect and modifying the albedo. The global temperature will in all probability rise by a further +0.2oC in each decade. The climate changes depend on the supply of energy, which rises with the fourth power of the absolute temperature. It is the extreme values which determine the consequences, which also have a correlation with this fourth power. They manifest themselves in more frequent and more extreme hydrometeorological phenomena, particularly heavy rains, cyclones, inundations, dry periods, land- and rockslides. The glaciers thaw, particularly in the Arctic and in high mountains, which e.g. south of the Himalayas is restricting the access to drinking water of many millions of people and causing a decline in rice production. The level of the oceans is rising as a result of the expansion of the warmed up sea water, which is inundating coastlines and low-lying islands more frequently during storms. The harvest in the subtropical countries is increasingly threatened by dry periods and by the rising salinity of the agrarian soils. In the poor countries of the African Sahel, as well as in the rich states in the west of the USA, access to water for agriculture, cattle and humans has already been restricted for many decades, thereby significantly reducing agricultural productivity and increasing world food prices across the globe. The warming up of the permafrost can cause the escape of methane, thus radicalizing the climate even more. The far-off and usually poor countries of the subtropics and tropics, in particular, are suffering from the consequences. Some authorities do not see this development as a threat - just as they did not react to the warnings before the present financial and economic crisis.; title: The changes in temperature are connected with the climatic oscillations and with the changes in the concentration of the greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour and aerosols, which are seriously affected by anthropogenic activities. According to the data of the World Resources Institute (WRI), EU member states have participated with 26.9% (Great Britain and Germany with  6 and 7% respectively, France with 2.9%, Italy with 1.6%), USA with 29.3%, Russia with 8.1 and China with 8.3%, Japan with 3.8%, Canada with 2.2%, India with 2.3% and the rest of the world with only 21.4% in the production of greenhouse gases since 1850.; title: These climatological changes can be modelled mathematically, particularly by means of the Global Circulation Models (GCM), on the basis of emission and socio-economic scenarios. Since the industrial revolution the impact of natural factors on these changes is most probably six times less than the impact of economic development, which is accompanied by waste. The documents submitted by the Intercontinental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regard the temperature rise of 2oC as a limit. Through the concentration of 535-590ppm the average temperature increases by 2.8-3.2oC. A rise of the average temperature by around 4 to 6oC would result in economic losses amounting to billions of dollars as well as in extensive and irreversible ecological changes. It is therefore necessary that the quantity of the emissions becomes retrogressive at the latest by the year 2015, when the concentration of 490ppm of the CO2- equivalent may be reached.; title: The present inherent wastefulness of consumer society, whereby neither the producers nor the consumers respect the maximum efficiency in the use of resources and which might be taken over by the developing countries with the highest population density, is not only an excessive burden on renewable resources. It is also unreasonably increasing the production of greenhouse gases and hence intensifying global warming with all its negative consequences. To restrict waste, it is necessary to take appropriate measures in all branches of the national economy, particularly in industry, energetic, transport, waste management, the building industry, agriculture, forestry and water management.; title: Industrial processes are predominantly based on a one-sided flow of materials and pollute the athmo-, hydro-, pedo- and lithosphere through solid, liquid and gaseous wastes. Under conditions of functioning prices the economic mechanisms secure both economic and technical development. As a consequence of striving for maximum yields and personal prestige some products cannot achieve the necessary degree of economic rationality and socially useful thriftiness. For this reason it is necessary to support the economicalness and quality of materials consumption and to optimize economic and technical development by means of legal, administrative, pedagogic and other instruments. The quantity and quality of waste is proof of low technological efficiency, which must be eliminated by innovations. It is advisable to prevent the emergence of wastes and emissions by connecting appropriate production processes and closing production cycles, because the wastes from the one process can serve as raw materials for the other, to use escaping gases for heating, energy or fuel generation, by closing the open systems of water use and wastewater recycling, etc. The transition to low-waste and waste-free technologies is unavoidable.; title: Energy consumption is going to treble in this century. At present it depends particularly on thermal power stations; however the reserves of the most commonly used fossil fuels will already be exhausted in the next century and the renewable energies are only able to replace them to a certain extent. The nuclear power plants have yet to solve the problem of finding a repository for the used radioactive waste, which even the future technology of nuclear fusion will not be able to solve.  The feasibility of the power industry will change whenever the hidden costs are integrated into the total costs. From the point of view of sustained development it is imperative to make use of the renewables, particularly bio-, wind-, sea-, geothermal and solar thermal energy – as well as hydropower which, through accumulation in raised reservoirs, can be used to cover peak energy demand (along with compressed air, the production of hydrogen and batteries of electric vehicles and households). The utilization of fossil energies should already be reduced to half of their present level from the end of this century; carbon dioxide separated and stored underground.  The production of solar electricity should prevail.; title: The current migration of the population into the cities increases energy consumption, in particular because of the concomitant higher standard of living and the insufficient thermal insulation of buildings. It is vital to economize on the energy consumption of transport, heating, air-conditioning, lighting and household appliances. This should be achieved above all by innovative technologies: better insulation, construction of passive houses, utilization and accumulation of solar energy and feeding its surplus into the grid. Green ecocities – dependent on renewable energies, waste-free technologies and sparing urban transport – will come to reflect the requirements of future housing.; title: Up to 95% of the fuel used for road, rail, water and air traffic comes from oil. Road transport is energetically the most demanding; cars are uneconomical on account of the exaggerated requirements of their owners and the striving after profit maximization of their producers. The limited reserves of fossil fuels and the efforts to restrict emissions are leading to an attempt to limit fuel consumption and to use biofuels, hydrogen and compressed air as well as electric cars.  Electric vehicles and hybrid models can also help to balance the daily fluctuations in electric energy consumption, as it is possible to load these in the time of lowest electricity consumption. Through the introduction of appropriate taxes, duties and regulations it is necessary to gradually phase out uneconomical cars with high consumption and herald a transition to more economical modes of traffic, especially rail and water traffic.; title: Mankind’s thousand years of activities, particularly the plundering of forest reserves and other ecosystems, have destroyed the biological continuity and hydrological function of the biosphere as well as severely limited its ability to decompose the carbon dioxide which contributes towards the change of climate.  The effect of the expansion of urban and agricultural areas, used for the food and fodder production as well as for the cultivation of plants for power generation, should be balanced by intensive afforestation so as to secure favourable conditions for the protection of the climate and water resources as well as endangered species.  Modern methods of forestry and agriculture have intensified the escaping of carbon dioxide and methane from soils. Photosynthesis should be facilitated again by a return to traditional agriculture: by the minimization of tillage depths, by the cultivation of crops with high water requirements only in water-rich areas, by an adjustment of the composition of food to local agricultural and weather conditions, as well as by the utilization of agricultural wastes, etc. Global agricultural production should be organized in such a way that the population of the poor countries do not suffer from food shortages.; title: Since the 19th century global water consumption has been rising twice as fast as the growth in population – especially due to irrigation, the most consumptive form of water use.  The water resources management institutes should undertake a systematic study of the different scenarios for the development of the water requirements of the population, industry and agriculture by modelling and evaluating the expected changes in water balances up to the time horizons of 2050 and 2100. Water consumption in households rises with the increase in the standard of living, but one can secure the same standard with a third of the level of water consumption by means of water recycling in households. The rich countries solve the problem of water scarcity by unconventional technologies including long-distance water transfer, by recycling wastewater and by the desalination of sea water. The decrease in fertility as a consequence of global heating can be balanced by an optimization of agricultural practices including genetic engineering as well as a global, regional and local optimization of the cropping patterns supported by medium-term weather forecasts and an optimization of the transportation distances of agricultural products on a global scale.; title: As a result of climate change the intensity of wind storms and flood discharges have increased, too, so traditional protection measures no longer guarantee the required protection. The infrastructure was planned on the basis of the statistic hydrologic data from the 19th and 20th centuries, but these have lost their validity and significance in the wake of the global change in the climate. They should therefore be replaced by the compilation of updated data on EHQ – extreme high flow – and PMF – probable maximum flood. In the past flood protection was predominantly secured through river training and flood dikes, in the process frequently putting the natural flooding areas along the river channel out of operation.  Thus the flood discharge has increased downstream, where the flood situation has worsened. The new climatic and hydrometeorological situation requires both complex infrastructure measures in the whole catchment area, in order to reduce the velocity of runoff as well as the flood levels, and operational measures based on forecast.; title: The United Nations and the European Union are spearheading the concentration of man’s political and economic will to master the consequences of climate change and the threat of the exhaustion or devastation of natural resources. The present economic development is not yet sustainable, but absolutely necessary for a largely equitable distribution of the results of the global economy for the benefit of the majority of the population. The victory of capitalism over socialism has made the global flows of money faster and more powerful; vast sums escape from taxation and control that resulted in a financial crisis and economic stagnation of the western world. This restricts the possibility of a socially fair redistribution of wealth; 90% of the wealth remains in the hands of 1% of rich and 220 million die of hunger each year.  An alteration in the way energy subsidies are allocated is needed, the establishment of funds for a transfer of the technologies for renewable energies to the developing countries, to stop their deforestation and support their afforestation and to subordinate these mechanisms to the Kyoto Protocol on emission trading and, further, to the contract that is due to be signed at the UN climate change conference in Mexico at the end of 2010.; title: The intercontinental policy to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases should promote a decrease in specific energy consumption, the replacement of fossil energy by renewables, afforestation and suitable agricultural and breeding practices and technologies to bind the carbon dioxide in the soil, sea and biosphere, an optimization of the use of natural products and other resources, wastewater, material and waste recycling – particularly through the use of waste-free technologies and renewable resources – as well as an optimization and minimization of transportation distances.; title: The minimum needed to sustain life is 2.4kWh of energy per capita and day in food form. The inhabitants of the developing countries consume double, the citizens of the USA a hundred and twenty times, this amount. To feed the Earth’s present population according to the European standard of nutrition would already require the yield of three terrestrial globes. In addition, the inhabitants of rich countries waste energy and other natural resources in order to maintain their excessive level of comfort. In this way they do not the follow the principles of the equality, liberty and fraternity of all humans – the principles of democracy which they proclaim. The basic factors which intensify the consequences of global warming are the demographic explosion and the rise in living standards, the industrial development, the declining ability of the biosphere to decompose carbon dioxide and the low standard of knowledge and responsibility of some politicians and managers. The costs of reducing or perhaps stopping the global disaster, of restricting global warming to 2oC, only amount to 1% of the global gross domestic product and are considerably lower than the costs of armaments and wars or the losses incurred by the world economy during the current financial crisis.; title: Wealth means responsibility, but the current rules of world trade as defined by affluent European and other western countries only serve to ensure that the advantages of globalization mostly accrue to the multinational companies and banks rather than the poor. The differences between rich and poor countries and people, euphemistically called the scissor effect, are growing throughout the world. This evokes envy and hatred which, in connection with religious-national fanaticism, is spreading not only in Moslem countries, but also in Russia, USA, Iran and Israel, and can seriously destabilize the international situation. The predominance of the unserious information media, coupled with the corruption and insufficient political responsibility and incompetent behaviour of leading politicians, is not conducive to an atmosphere of mutual understanding; on the contrary, it weakens the position of those politicians and managers who want economic and social reforms and strengthens that of nationalists and fundamentalists – fanatics who are not able to develop society in any meaningful way.; title: The basic measures necessary for a gradual balancing of these unfair disproportions on a world level require that the economically strong countries of the northern hemispere:                              1.  eliminate import barriers and the subsidy system, particularly with regard to agricultural goods  from developing countries, and open their markets to these, 2. offer protection, particularly to the markets of the poor countries of the southern hemisphere which were opened by force, 3. intervene on the market for raw materials, regulating – if necessary –  supply and demand to achieve a fair distribution of profit,  4. change the Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, resulting i.a. in the unavailability of medicines in the poor countries which need these, 5. repeal the suggested  Global Agreement on Trade and Services (GATS) and limit the domination of global players on the world market, 6. regulate the international currency and financial system in the interest of a fair distribution of the accumulated surplus, 7. even out the differences in education, training, affluence and access to capital and thus help the legendary gap to grow narrower.; title: The contemporary crisis, global warming and its consequences, calls for and encourages such a sea change in global thinking, economic approach, social life and international cohabitation.