Post-transition investment behavior in Poland
Subtitle: a sectoral panel analysis
By: prepared by Zuzana Murgasova.
Contributors: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Series: IMF working paper -- WP/05/184
Publisher: International Monetary Fund, European Dept.
Published: 2005
Place of publication: Washington, D.C
Language: eng
Number of pages: 30
Subjects: Investments -- Poland.
Description: Analyzing and projecting the behavior of macroeconomic variables in new EU member states presents special challenges, owing to limited time series of the available data. This paper presents an analysis of investment in Poland based on an underexplored sectoral data set. The determinants of investment are found to include lagged investment, lead production, relative unit labor costs, EU demand, corporate profitability, and greenfield FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows. Dynamic in-sample simulations indicate some overinvestment in 1997 compared with what the model would suggest, and a substantial underinvestment during 2000-2004. The model is then used to project future investment: while rapid investment growth is likely, it remains uncertain whether investment as a share of GDP will reach its peak levels on the late 1990s.
Notes: "September 2005."

"An earlier version of this paper was presented at a seminar held at the Ministry of Finance in Warsaw on April 25, 2005."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 30).

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