Think twice
Subtitle: harnessing the power of counterintuition
By: Michael J. Mauboussin.
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
Published: 2009
Place of publication: Boston, Mass
Language: eng
Number of pages: 190
ISBN-13: 9781422176757
Subjects: Decision making
Description: Leaders in business, medicine, law and government make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding error.

"Leaders in all fields-business, medicine, law, government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices, even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders, their organizations, and the people they serve. Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In "Think Twice," Michael Mauboussin shows you how to recognize-and avoid-common mental missteps, including: (1) Misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, (2) Aggregating micro-level behavior to predict macro-level behavior, (3) Not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and (4) Relying too much on experts. Sharing vivid stories from business and beyond, Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding each error. And he explains how to know when it's time to think twice-to question your reasoning and adopt decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Master the art of thinking twice, and you'll start spotting dangerous mental errors-in your own decisions and in those of others. Equipped with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization." -- Publisher's description
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
Table of contents: title: Introduction: the ways of our errors; title: Why Big Brown was a bad bet: know your reference class; title: Why Steinbrenner screamed in vain: outcome = skill + luck; title: The grand ah-whoom: how little changes can make a big difference; title: Bees, beavers, and beer: why the whole is greater than the parts; title: I'll see it when I believe it: transcend your tunnel vision; title: What it depends on: the importance of context over content; title: The expert squeeze: why computers and collectives are taking over; title: The power of the situation; title: What should I do differently tomorrow.