French wine and the U.S. boycott of 2003
Subtitle: does politics really affect commerce?
By: Orley Ashenfelter, Stephen Ciccarella, Howard J. Shatz.
Contributors: Ciccarella, Stephen.; Shatz, Howard J.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series -- no. 13258.; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 13258.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2007
Place of publication: Cambridge, Mass
Language: eng
Number of pages: 21
Subjects: Wine industry -- Economic aspects -- France; Wine industry -- France -- Mathematical models; Boycotts -- United States; Iraq War, 2003- -- Economic aspects
Description: In early 2003, France actively tried to thwart the plans of the Bush administration to build international support for a war to depose Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein. In response, calls in the United States for a boycott of French products, wine in particular, rebounded through all forms of media. In the spring of 2003, French business people even reported that the boycott calls were hurting their U.S. sales. Using a dataset of sales of nearly 4,700 individual wine brands, we show that there actually was no boycott effect. Rather, sales of French wine dipped for two reasons. First, they experience a cyclical peak at holiday time, from November through early January, and the boycott was called during the February to May period. Second, sales of French wine have been in a secular decline in the United States. Sales in February through May 2003 merely stayed on trend. We contrast our results with other recent work that has found evidence of a boycott effect but that omits the holiday effect from several specifications. French wine producers may be having economic problems, but it is not because of their government's foreign policy.
Notes: "July 2007"

Includes bibliographical references (p. 19-20).

Also available in PDF from the NBER world wide web site (www.nber.org).