Statistical post-processing of the navy nested tropical cyclone model and the operational tropical cyclone model
Subtitle: final report for period October 1980-September 1981
By: James E. Peak and Russell L. Elsberry
Contributors: Elsberry, Russell L.; Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School
Published: 1981
Place of publication: Monterey, California
Language: eng
Number of pages: 51
Subjects: Statistical methods; Cyclone tracks; Cyclone forecasting; Cyclones
Description: A statistical technique proposed by Elsberry and Frill (1980) for adjusting dynamical tropical cyclone motion forecasts is extended to the Two-Way Interactive Nested Tropical Cyclone Model (NTCM) and the operational One-Way Interactive Tropical Cyclone Model (TCMO). The technique utilizes linear regression equations to reduce systemic errors. Backward extrapolation positions are presented as a less expensive, but inferior, alternative to the backward integration positions required by the original technique. A scheme is developed for applying the technique in storm-motion coordinates as well as zonal-meridional coordinates. Tests with 186 NTCM cases indicate moderate improvement in forecast errors by the zonal-meridional regression technique, and slight improvement by the storm-coordinate scheme. In TCMO tests with 212 cases, the zonal-meridional regression equations reduced the forecast errors, but the storm-coordinate equations did not. The technique failed to improve forecast errors in independent tests with NTCM 1981 data, presumably due to differences in error biases, which indicates a need for a larger sample size. Alternatively backward integration positions may be necessary to achieve consistent improvements from this statistical technique. The technique was able to improve 60h-72h forecast errors in TCMO 1981 cases. (Author)
Notes: "NPS-63-81-003"--Cover.

Cover title.

"September 1981"--Cover.

"Prepared for: Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, California 93940."

"Final Report for Period October 1980 - September 1981."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 48).

"Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited"--Cover.

Technical report; 1981.

ck/ 4/9/09.