History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles
Publisher: Uchitel Publishing House
Published: 2014
Place of publication: Volgograd
Number of pages: 328
ISBN-13: 9785705742233
Description: The present yearbook (which is the fourth in the series) is subtitled Trends & Cycles. It is devoted to cyclical and trend dynamics in society and nature; special attention is paid to economic and demographic aspects, in particular to the mathematical modeling of the Malthusian and post-Malthusian traps' dynamics.

An increasingly important role is played by new directions in historical research that study long-term dynamic processes and quantitative changes. This kind of history can hardly develop without the application of mathematical methods. There is a tendency to study history as a system of various processes, within which one can detect waves and cycles of different lengths – from a few years to several centuries, or even millennia. The contributions to this yearbook present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of global historical, political, economic and demographic processes, as well as their mathematical models.

This issue of the yearbook consists of three main sections: (I) Long-Term Trends in Nature and Society; (II) Cyclical Processes in Pre-industrial Societies; (III) Contemporary History and Processes.

We hope that this issue of the yearbook will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathematicians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences.

The present research has been carried out in the framework of the project of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Table of contents: title: Introduction. Modeling and Measuring Cycles, Processes, and Trends
label: Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev; title: I. Long-Term Trends in Nature and Society; title: Mathematical Modeling of Biological and Social Evolutionary Macrotrends
label: Leonid E. Grinin, Alexander V. Markov, and Andrey V. Korotayev; title: The World System Trajectory: The Reality of Constraints and the Potential for Prediction
label: Tony Harper; title: Another, Simpler Look: Was Wealth Really Determined in 8000 BCE, 1000 BCE, 0 CE, or Even 1500 CE?
label: William R. Thompson and Kentaro Sakuwa; title: II. Cyclical Processes in Pre-industrial Societies; title: Cycling in the Complexity of Early Societies
label: Sergey Gavrilets, David G. Anderson, and Peter Turchin; title: Demographic-Structural Theory and the Roman Dominate
label: David C. Baker; title: Modeling Malthusian Dynamics in Pre-industrial Societies: Mathematical Modeling
label: Sergey A. Nefedov; title: III. Contemporary History and Processes; title: A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems
label: Andrey V. Korotayev, Sergey Yu. Malkov, and Leonid E. Grinin; title: Labour Migration and ‘Smart Public Health’
label: Arno Tausch and Almas Heshmati; title: Is Geography ‘Dead’ or ‘Destiny’ in a Globalizing World? A Network Analysis and Latent Space Modeling Approach of the World Trade Network
label: Anthony Howell; title: The British-Italian Performance in the Mediterranean from the Artillery Perspective
label: Kent R. Crawford and Nicholas W. Mitiukov; title: The Shield of Islam? Islamic Factor of HIV Prevalence in Africa
label: Alisa R. Shishkina, Leonid M. Issaev, Konstantin M. Truevtsev, and Andrey V. Korotayev; title: Contributors; title: Guidelines for Contributors