Assessing long-term state fragility in Africa
Subtitle: prospects for 26 'more fragile' countries
By: Jakkie Cilliers and Timothy D. Sisk
Contributors: Sisk, Timothy D., 1960-; Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)
Series: ISS monograph -- 188; ISS monograph series -- no. 188
Publisher: Institute for Security Studies
Published: 2013
Place of publication: Pretoria
Language: eng
Number of pages: 110
ISBN-13: 9781920678005
Subjects: Internal security; Forecasting; Politics and government; Social conditions; Economic conditions; Economic history; Political science; Social history
Description: Despite sterling growth in some countries, a number of African countries are caught in a vicious cycle of violence, chronic poverty, inequality and exclusion. These 'more fragile' states are on a slow trajectory to long-term peace and development. Using the International Futures system data analysis and forecasting tool, the monograph provides a long-term forecast of 26 fragile African countries. The forecasts suggest that in the long-term ten countries on the continent will continue to remain fragile into the mid-21st century. Others, however, have a good chance of embarking on a pathway from fragility to middle-income conditions by 2030 or possibly 2050. The monograph concludes with a list of recommendations.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-110)
Table of contents: title: Introduction; title: Unpacking 'fragility' : a systems perspective; title: A working list of Africa's 'more fragile' countries for future analysis; title: Forecasting fragility; title: Conclusion; title: Recommendations.