Hedging sudden stops & precautionary recessions
Subtitle: a quantitative framework
By: Ricardo J. Caballero [and] Stavros Panageas
Contributors: Panageas, Stavros; Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics
Series: Working paper series / Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics -- working paper 03-19; Working paper (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics) -- no. 03-19.
Publisher: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics
Published: 2003
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Number of pages: 52
Description: Even well managed emerging market economies are exposed to significant external risk, the bulk of which is financial. At a moment's notice, these economies may be required to reverse the capital inflows that have supported the preceding boom. Even if such a reversal does not take place, its anticipation often leads to costly precautionary measures and recessions. In this paper, we characterize the business cycle of an economy that on average needs to borrow but faces stochastic financial constraints. We focus on the optimal financial policy of such an economy under different imperfections and degrees of crowding out in its hedging opportunities. The model is simple enough to be analytically tractable but flexible and realistic enough to provide quantitative guidance. Keywords: Capital Flows, Sudden Stops, Financial Constraints, Recessions, Hedging, Insurance, Signals, Contingent Credit Lines, Asymmetric Information. JEL Classification: E2, E3, F3, F4, G0, C1.
Notes: "May 26, 2003."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 35-36).

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