The cost of US pharmaceutical price reduction
Subtitle: a financial simulation model of R & D
By: Thomas A. Abbott, John A. Vernon.
Contributors: Vernon, John A.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series ;; working paper 11114; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;; working paper no. 11114.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2005
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Drugs -- Prices -- United States.; Drug development -- United States -- Econometric models.; Drugs -- Research -- United States -- Econometric models.
Description: "Previous empirical studies that have examined the links between pharmaceutical price controls, profits, cash flows, and investment in research and development (R&D) have been largely based on retrospective statistical analyses of firm- and/or industry-level data.  These studies, which have contributed numerous insights and findings to the literature, relied upon ad hoc reduced-form model specifications.  In the current paper we take a very different approach: a prospective micro-simulation approach.  Using Monte Carlo techniques we model how future price controls in the U.S.  will impact early-stage product development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry.  This is done within the context of a net present value (NPV) framework that appropriately reflects the uncertainty associated with R&D project technical success, development costs, and future revenues.  Using partial-information estimators calibrated with the most contemporary clinical and economic data available, we demonstrate how pharmaceutical price controls will significantly diminish the incentives to undertake early-stage R&D investment.  For example, we estimate that cutting prices by 40 to 50 percent in the U.S.  will lead to between 30 to 60 percent fewer R&D projects being undertaken (in early-stage development).  Given the recent legislative efforts to control prescription drug prices in the U.S., and the likelihood that price controls will prevail as a result, it is important to better understand the firm response to such a regulatory change"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
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