The decline of activist stabilization policy
Subtitle: natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
By: Athanasios Orphanides, John C. Williams.
Series: International finance discussion papers ;; no. 804; International finance discussion papers (Online) ;; no. 804.
Publisher: Federal Reserve Board
Published: 2004
Place of publication: Washington, D.C
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Description: "We develop an estimated model of the U.S.  economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy.  We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes.  We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent inflation expectations and destabilized the economy.  Had monetary policy reacted less aggressively to perceived unemployment gaps, inflation expectations would have remained anchored and the stagflation of the 1970s would have been avoided.  Indeed, we find that less activist policies would have been more effective at stabilizing *both* inflation and unemployment.  We argue that policymakers, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favor of policies that concentrated on the achievement of price stability, contributing to the subsequent improvements in macroeconomic performance of the U.S.  economy"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Notes: Also available in print.
Includes bibliographical references.
Title from PDF file as viewed on 8/9/2004.
System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Mode of access: World Wide Web.