Evaluating forecasting methods for cash management in the Navy Working Capital Fund
By: Robert J. Bestercy
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1998
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 153
Description: This thesis researches business forecasting models and methodologies for application in the management of cash      in the Navy Working Capital Fund (NWCF). The recent dissolution of the Defense Business Operations Fund      (DBOF) and establishment of the service Working Capital Funds has resulted in an increased emphasis on      effective cash management practices at the service level. Unpredicted outlays in an era of severely declining      budgets have caused farther scrutiny of cash management practices in the NWCF, which generates nearly $20      billion annually in revenues and expenditures. Forecasting models within the NWCF and outside the Department      of Defense were evaluated for potential application at the Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Financial      Management & Comptroller) (ASN (FM&C) and Supply Management Activity Group (NWCF-SM) level of      the NWCF. Specifically, the NWCF-SM expenditures forecasting model was analyzed and evaluated for      possible implementation across all NWCF business activities. Additionally, a developmental cash management      system was analyzed and recommendations were made for improvement. Finally, several forecasting      methodologies and private sector forecasting benchmarks were discussed to illustrate techniques that may be      applicable in NWCF cash management. Cash collection and disbursement data were collected at ASN      (FM&C) and NWCF-SM and evaluated for forecasting possibilities in the aforementioned models and      methodologies. A simple probabilistic model was presented for application in NWCF cash management.
Notes: "December 1998."

Thesis advisor(s): Shu S. Liao, John E. Mutty.

Thesis (M.S. in Management) Naval Postgraduate School, December 1998.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 149-151)

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

Also available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

System Requirements: Adobe Acrobat reader.

US Navy (USN) author.

dk/dk cc:9116 12/3/98.