Prediction Markets
Subtitle: Theory and Applications
Contributors: Chen, Yiling; Parkes, David; Wortman Vaughan, Jenn
Published: 2013
Language: eng
Description: In this thesis I offer new results on how we can acquire, reward, and use accurate predictions of future events. Some of these results are entirely theoretical, improving our understanding of strictly proper scoring rules (Chapter 3), and expanding strict properness to include cost functions (Chapter 4). Others are more practical, like developing a practical cost function for the [0, 1] interval (Chapter 5), exploring how to design simple and informative prediction markets (Chapter 6), and using predictions to make decisions (Chapter 7).
Notes: Keywords: cost functions, decision markets, prediction markets, scoring relations, scoring rules.

Thesis Ph.D. Harvard University 2013