Understanding mesoscale error growth and predictability
By:  Michael A. Kuypers
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 2000
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Number of pages: 104
Description: Technological advances have made atmospheric mesoscale modeling at very fine resolutions readily available to a great number of organizations. Though initial operational results show some skill with respect to synoptic scale forecasts, many of the problems associated with mesoscale error growth and predictability have been ignored. Understanding mesoscale error is critical to accurately interpreting mesoscale model results and output from tactical decision aids (TDA's). This study examines mesoscale error growth and predictability through controlled numerical model experiments. A known "true" atmosphere is created through the use of the US Navy's Coupled Oceanographic/ Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Virtual observations are randomly sampled from this atmosphere to provide data for ingest into forecasts using the NCARIPenn State MM5 mesoscale model. Forecast results for ten cases are compared against the "true" atmospheric solution and error statistics are calculated for wind speed and geopotential height fields. Results show how error growth and predictability are affected by different variables such as boundary conditions, weather regime, sample size and sample distribution. A scale separation of error is also performed in order to assess the impact of synoptic scale error on mesoscale error.
Notes: Thesis advisor(s): Nuss, Wendell A.

"June 2000."

Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2000.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-102).

Approved for public release, distribution unlimited--Cover

Also available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat reader.

US Navy (USN) author.

updated dlb 11/3/06