Estimation of expected casualties using aliveness adjustments
By: Donald R. Barr
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Dept. of Operations Research
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1987
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 42
Subjects: CASUALTIES; ESTIMATES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS
Other titles: NPS-55-87-009.
Description: In military operations research, it is often desired to estimate the expected casualties that      would accrue to each side in a battle between opposing forces. One way to obtain credible      estimates is to use field tests in which battles with engagements between battle units (such as      tanks, armored personnel carriers and ground-to-ground missile systems) are simulated. One      common feature of such simulated battles is the use of real time casualty assessment to      determine the outcome of each engagement. Real time casualty assessment uses pre-set      probabilities of kill, or Pk values; a Bernoulli trial with a Pk appropriate for the conditions of      the engagement determines whether the battle unit fired upon is killed and thus removed from      further play in the battle. For various reasons, it may be desired to estimate the expected      numbers of battle units of given types that would be killed for Pk values different from those      used in the experiment. This can be accomplished, using adjustments to the estimates obtained      for the original experiment. Such estimators can be based on the computed aliveness of      surviving battle units. We discuss two formulations of the aliveness concept, and compare the      resulting estimators.
Notes: Title from cover.

"NPS-55-87-009."

"August 1987."

AD A186 547.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 42)

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