How to predict the unpredictable
Subtitle: the art of outsmarting almost everyone
By: William Poundstone
Publisher: Oneworld
Published: 2014
Place of publication: London
Language: eng
Number of pages: 284
ISBN-13: 9781780744070; 9781780744087
Subjects: Decision making; Psychological aspects; Psychology; Choice (Psychology); Human behavior; Prediction (Psychology)
Description: We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase 'winning streaks' that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be. In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase 'representativeness' to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You'll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references and index.

Also issued online.
Table of contents: title: Prologue : the outguessing machine; title: pt. I. The randomness experiment. The Zenith broadcast ; How to outguess rock, paper, scissors ; How to outguess multiple-choice tests ; How to outguess the lottery ; How to outguess tennis serves ; How to outguess football penalty kicks ; How to outguess card games ; How to outguess passwords ; How to outguess crowd-sourced ratings ; How to outguess fake numbers ; How to outguess manipulated numbers ; How to outguess ponzi schemes; title: pt. II. The hot hand theory. In the zone ; How to outguess football bets ; How to outguess Oscar pools ; How to outguess big data ; How to outguess retail prices ; How to outguess property prices ; How to outguess the unpredictable ; How to outguess the stock market; title: Epilogue : fortune's world.