Operational data tests with a tropical cyclone model
By: Russell L. Elsberry
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School
Published: 1977
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif
Language: eng
Number of pages: 28
Subjects: Cyclones; Numerical weather forecasting; Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
Description: The coarse-grid version of Ley and Elsberry tropical cyclone prediction model was used to evaluate the effect of using operationally-analyzed rather than hand-analyzed data. A series of 41 cases from the 1975 typhoon season resulted in larger errors than the official forecasts. In most cases the track was forecast well, but the translation speed was slow. Tests with a 4th-order advection scheme did not lead to significant improvements over the 2nd-order advection. It was concluded that the most likely source of error was due to data deficiencies in the western Pacific. Wind direction estimates based on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) photographs were compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) hand-analyzed streamlines. About 65-70% of the DMSP direction estimates at the gradient and 250-mb level were within + or - 10 deg of the handanalyzed fields. The author concludes that the new data source of DMSP direction estimates should be used in operational analysis.
Notes: Title from cover.

Technical report period: July 1976 - March 1977.

"March 1977"--Cover.

"NPS-63ES77031"--Cover.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 28)

"Approved for public release; distribution unlimited"--Cover.

Technical report; July 1976 - March 1977.