Who knows what tomorrow will bring?
Subtitle: four papers on the prediction of contentious politics
By: David Randahl
Series: Report / Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University -- no. 128; Report (Uppsala universitet. Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning) -- no. 128.
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Published: 2022
Place of publication: Uppsala
Language: eng
ISBN-13: 9789150629484
Copyright date: 2022
Subjects: Political science; Data processing; Protest movements; Social movements; Africa; Politics and government
Notes: Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Uppsala, 2022

Includes bibliographical references.
Table of contents: title: I. Inexorable force or dying wave? : long term trends of democratization and the third wave of autocratization; title: II. Inference with extremes : accounting for extreme values in count regression models; title: III. Predicting escalating and de-escalating violence in Africa using Markov models : published in International interactions 48 (4) (2022, forthcoming); title: IV. What's missing? : the effect of missing data and imputation techniques on predictive performance in forecasting civil war violence.