Extension of the systematic approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the eastern and central North Pacific
By: Mark A. Boothe
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.) 
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1997
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 134
Description: This study extends an earlier study (White 1995) of the application of the Systematic Approach to tropical      cyclone track forecasting of Carr and Elsberry to the eastern and central North Pacific, and contrasts      these cases with those in the western North Pacific. The data sample is first expanded to seven years      (1990-1996). Modifications to the environment structure conceptual models are: (1) introduction of two      Dominant Ridge synoptic regions named Ridge Poleward and Ridge Equatorward based on the bowed      orientation of the subtropical anticyclone; and (2) combining the Weak Westerlies and Accelerating      Westerlies into just one synoptic region called Midlatitude Westerlies. Only eight synoptic pattern/region      combinations are needed to classify all of the 1858 cases. Additions to the transitional mechanisms      include: (1) the formation and dissipation of the mid-level low; (2) monsoon trough formation; and (3)      orography. A new transition climatology reveals that a large fraction of transitions occur between the      regions of the Standard pattern. Subtropical Ridge Modulation and Vertical Wind Shear are determined      to be the most important transitional mechanisms. Synoptic analysis sequences are provided to illustrate      the synoptic pattern/regions and the primary transitions.
Notes: Thesis advisor(s): Russell L. Elsberry.

"December 1997."

Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology) Naval Postgraduate School, December 1997.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 131)

"Approved for public release, distribution unlimited"--Cover.

Also available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat reader.

Naval Postgraduate School author.

dk/dk cc:9116 6/25/98.