On the sources of aggregate fluctuations in emerging economies
By: Roberto Chang, Andrés Fernández
Contributors: Fernández, Andrés; National Bureau of Economic Research
Series: NBER working paper series -- working paper 15938; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) -- working paper no. 15938.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2010
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Description: "Recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies has focused in two leading approaches: introducing a stochastic productivity trend, in addition to temporary productivity shocks; or allowing for foreign interest rate shocks coupled with financial frictions.  This paper compares the two approaches empirically, and also evaluates a model that encompasses them, taking advantage of recent developments in the theory and implementation of Bayesian methods.  The encompassing model assigns a significant role to interest rate shocks and financial frictions, but not to trend shocks, in generating and amplifying aggregate fluctuations.  Formal model comparison exercises favor models with financial frictions over the stochastic trend model, although this is sensitive to the inclusion of measurement errors.  Of the two financial frictions we consider, working capital versus spreads linked to expected future productivity, the latter emerges as key for a reasonable approximation to the data"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 5/6/2010.

Includes bibliographical references.

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