A cost-loss ratio model for hurricane sortie decisions
By: Mary T. Hatton
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1994
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 120
Description: This thesis examines, using the framework of a cost-loss ratio, the dilemma of the Navy decision maker faced with the question of whether or not to sortie ocean-going ships from a port threatened by a hurricane. The long leadtime needed to execute a full sortie requires the decision maker to rely on hurricane forecasts that may contain large errors, despite improvements in forecasting over the past two decades. Furthermore, decision makers may have difficulty interpreting forecasts without the use of a decision aid. Analysis includes interviews with several tropical cyclone experts, a literature review of the economics of hurricanes, and a critique of a number of hurricane decision aids. Based upon this research, this thesis concludes that the CHARM model for setting hurricane readiness conditions is currently the best decision aid available for reducing the number of unnecessary sorties without putting the fleet at significantly increased risk.
Notes: Thesis advisor(s): Dan C. Boger.

"September 1994."

Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research) Naval Postgraduate School, September 1994.

Bibliography: p. 117-118.

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

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US Navy (USN) author.