A comparison and validation of two surface ship readiness models
By: Blaine S. Pennypacker
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1994
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 103
Description: Two models are used by the U.S. Navy to predict surface ship readiness: the Surface Ship Resources to Material Readiness Model (SRM) and the Surface Ship Inventory to Material Readiness Model (SIM). This thesis examines both models, in order to validate the model fit and to determine whether the two models predict significantly different levels of readiness for a given data set using both cross validation and jackknife procedures. Examination of the models reveals that there are numerous insignificant predictor variables in the models. Normality assumptions made on the non-linear regression are not proper. Additionally, the performance of both the SRM and the SIM at the ship level is poor. However, once aggregated to the fleet level, prediction performance improves drastically. Analysis of the jackknife confidence intervals indicate that the SRM and SIM predict significantly different levels of readiness. While the SIM performs slightly better than the SRM, one has to consider the marginal cost associated with the more complex SIM for model selection. Finally, use of reduced models and model modifications such as use of Poisson regression are recommended.
Notes: Thesis advisor(s): So Young Sohn.

"September 1994."

Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research) Naval Postgraduate School, September 1994.

Includes bibliographical references.

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

Also available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

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US Navy (USN) author.