Artificial intelligence and foreign policy decision-making
By: Russ H. Berkoff
Contributors: Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.) 
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1997
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 170
Description: With the advent of a global information society, the US will seek to tap the potential of advanced computing      capability to enhance its ability to conduct foreign policy decision making. This thesis explores the potential for      improving individual and organizational decision making capabilities by means of artificial intelligence (AI). The      use of AI will allow us to take advantage of the plethora of information available to obtain an edge over      potential adversaries. Another purpose of this thesis is to give guidance to the software community as to what      policymakers will need in order to improve future decision making processes. The third purpose is to encourage      government and private sector decision makers to allocate adequate resources to actualize the potential of AI.      The method of analysis this thesis uses is to examine US foreign policy decision making on the cognitive or      individual, group, and organizational levels. Using the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Yom Kippur War as test      beds for critical analysis, identification of both decision enhancing and impeding functions is accomplished.      Finally, a counterfactual analytic framework, using an AI model, tests the likely influence of AI on decision      making. The results substantiate the value of AI as both a decision making enhancer and an impediment reducer      for the policymaker. Additional conclusions are derived that improve the decision making system and its      processes by means of introducing an AI capability.
Notes: "December 1997."

Thesis advisor(s): John Arquilla.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis) Naval Postgraduate School, December 1997.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 163-165)

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited.

Also available online.

Mode of access: World Wide Web.

System requirements: Adobe Acrobat reader.

US Army (USA) author.

dk/dk cc:9116 05/08/98.