Operationally-relevant test lengths
Subtitle: a decision-analysis approach
Publisher: Naval Postgraduate School; Available from National Technical Information Service
Published: 1997
Place of publication: Monterey, Calif; Springfield, Va
Language: eng
Number of pages: 50
Subjects: WEAPON SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS; BAYES THEOREM; DECISION MAKING
Description: This thesis approaches the question of How much testing is enough? by formulating a model for the combat      situation in which the weapon (e.g., missile) will be used. Methods of Bayesian statistics are employed to allow      the decision maker to benefit from prior information gained in the testing of similar systems by forecasting the      operational gain from acceptance. A Microsoft Excel V7.0 spreadsheet serves as the user interface, and Visual      Basic for Applications, Excel's built in macro-language, is the language used to produce the source code. The      methodology accommodates two different tactical usages for the missile: a single shot, or a salvo of two shots.      The missile might be acceptable if used in the two-shot salvo mode, but not in the single shot mode, and this      would imply a greater cost per mission. In the end the missile might not be judged cost effective as compared to      a competitive system. If the model proposed is (or can become) adequate much can be calculated/estimated      before any operational tests are made. This could assist in economizing on operational testing.
Notes: Thesis advisors, Donald P. Gaver and Patricia A. Jacobs.

AD-A331 252.

Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research) Naval Postgraduate School, March 1997.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 47).

dk/dk cc:9116 10/28/97.