The performance of the pivotal-voter model in small-scale elections
Subtitle: evidence from Texas liquor referenda
By: Stephen Coate, Michael Conlin, Andrea Moro.
Contributors: Conlin, Michael.; Moro, Andrea.; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Series: NBER working paper series ;; working paper 10797; Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research : Online) ;; working paper no. 10797.
Publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research
Published: 2004
Place of publication: Cambridge, MA
Language: eng
Format: Electronic resource
Subjects: Local elections -- Mathematical models.; Referendum -- Texas.; Liquor laws -- Texas.
Description: "How well does the pivotal-voter model explain voter participation in small-scale elections? This paper explores this question using data from Texas liquor referenda.  It first structurally estimates the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the Texas data.  It then uses the estimates to evaluate both the within and out-of-sample performance of the model.  The analysis shows that the model is capable of predicting turnout in the data fairly well, but tends, on average, to predict closer electoral outcomes than are observed in the data.  This difficulty allows the pivotal-voter model to be outperformed by a simple alternative model based on the idea of expressive voting"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Notes: Includes bibliographical references.
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