Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?
By: Andrew Ang, Geert Bekaert, and Min Wei
Contributors: Bekaert, Geert; Wei, Min
Series: Finance and economics discussion series -- 2006-15; Finance and economics discussion series (Online) -- 2006-15.
Publisher: Federal Reserve Board
Published: 2006
Place of publication: Washington, D.C
Language: eng
Format: [electronic resource] /
Description: "Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S.  inflation out-of-sample: time series ARIMA models; regressions using real activity measures motivated from the Phillips curve; term structure models that include linear, non-linear, and arbitrage-free specifications; and survey-based measures.  We also investigate several methods of combining forecasts.  Our results show that surveys outperform the other forecasting methods and that the term structure specifications perform relatively poorly.  We find little evidence that combining forecasts produces superior forecasts to survey information alone.  When combining forecasts, the data consistently places the highest weights on survey information"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Notes: Title from PDF file as viewed on 12/7/2006.

Includes bibliographical references.

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Mode of access: World Wide Web.